NBA dfs

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/5

We get a five game slate tonight and there are some very strong spots with the San Antonio Spurs facing the Charlotte Hornets leading the charge. There is also a late-night hammer that will draw plenty of attention so let’s get to work in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/5!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Spurs at Hornets

Spurs – I mean, how could we start with anything but this game? Sure, myself, Tony, and Ghost LOVE Dejounte Murray but this spot simply can’t get much better. Both of these teams are in the top four in pace and the bottom 10 in defensive rating. The Spurs are one of the teams that will run with the Hornets and Murray has a massive 1.53 FPPM when Derrick White is off the floor. The upside here is 70-75 DK with a triple-double and he should have had one in the last game. Murray only had seven assists but a whopping 21 potential assists in that game. This environment is really no different and the salary is totally justified. Speaking of salaries, what does Lonnie Walker have to do to get a jump here? It almost feels like a trap but he’s coming off 39.5 DK points and that is the sixth straight game he’s eclipsed 27 DK. Granted, his shot needs to be on to blow up but it is the Hornets. Walker’s usage without White is also encouraging at 29.1%, right next to Murray on the season. Jakob Poeltl and Keldon Johnson are also strong options, and the questionable players could change this team drastically ahead of lock.

Hornets – This side of the ball gets a bit trickier and even with Murray facing off defensively against him, LaMelo Ball has far more upside than a normal $8,500 player. I can confidently say that his downside is not going to be seven minutes played for 11.5 DK points again, but I don’t think I get a lot of credit for that call. He had a nightmare game and that happens with younger players but Ball still leads the Hornets with a 1.33 FPPM. I don’t mind Miles Bridges in this spot but he’s not a priority on the wing. Terry Rozier is another volatile option and that sums up the whole team. Rozier has games where he’s flirting with 50 DK points but it’s not easy to get it right and he is far from cheap at this juncture. Even in the last four weeks, his 1.10 FPPM is still behind Ball at 1.20 and the usage is still Ball’s at 28.3%. If you’re swinging for the fences, Montrezl Harrell should be on the radar as well since San Antonio is in the bottom 12 in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint.

Warriors at Lakers

Warriors – Both of these teams are really scuffling right now although at least the Warriors have good record to fall back on. I think myself or Ghost could knock down a shot against the Lakers right now (provided LeBron James is off the floor) and their defensive rating once the break is 118.6. Houston is 116.1 right now after a full season so to say the Lakers can’t defend anyone is not an exaggeration. I think Steph Curry s going to be out to make a statement after he didn’t attempt a shot in the fourth quarter of the last game as the Warriors lost to the Mavericks. Seeing as how someone like Reggie Jackson of the Clippers can score 39 real points on the Lakers, we don’t need to say much about Curry in this spot. Klay Thompson had his best game against these Lakers and is always capable of doing that again so if you can’t get to Curry, Klay works as well. He is slightly expensive for a shooter but if he gets hot he can shatter this salary. Andrew Wiggins is solid even though he’s never a favorite and Jordan Poole could take advantage of Gary Payton being out. Poole likely doesn’t start but scoring off the bench can be hard to come by for Golden State at times. Lastly, Kevon Looney is a strong option as a cheap center with 30 DK upside in this spot. Los Angeles is vulnerable to every position on the floor so I want at least one Warrior in every lineup.

Lakers – Quite simply, if your name isn’t LeBron James or Malik Monk… I’m not interested. LeBron is chasing the points record and Golden State has a weakness in the interior if Bron has a mind to get there. Monk is cheap and can hit from distance, being about the only Laker that can shoot. Past that, there is not much to like and this team looks dead in the water.

Teams To Monitor

Magic/Sixers/Wolves – These teams played last night so just be aware that someone could sit (I have a feeling Embiid is possible, but the matchup against the Heat does matter so I could be wrong).

Heat – This and one other team hold the keys to the slate in reality, at least as far as who we can afford. Last game saw them missing a ton of guys and players like Max Strus, Caleb Martin, and Gabe Vincent could be far too cheap for their situation. On the higher end, Tyler Herro would be the preferred target ahead of Bam Adebayo unless Joel Embiid sits for Philly. We’ll just have to see who is available for the Heat before venturing into who to play.

Blazers – Not to be outdone, Portland is a very important team because they have a ton of value options. Drew Eubanks, Trendon Watford, C.J. Elleby, and Greg Brown are all interesting under $5,000 with Josh Hart out. The Blazers are tanking hard so there is volatility in the minutes allotted outside of Anfernee Simons but we have the best model in the business from our main man Ghost. I’ll be relying on that to make my decisions on the Portland value.

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/5

We get a five game slate tonight and there are some very strong spots with the San Antonio Spurs facing the Charlotte Hornets leading the charge. There is also a late-night hammer that will draw plenty of attention so let’s get to work in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/5!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Spurs at Hornets

Spurs – I mean, how could we start with anything but this game? Sure, myself, Tony, and Ghost LOVE Dejounte Murray but this spot simply can’t get much better. Both of these teams are in the top four in pace and the bottom 10 in defensive rating. The Spurs are one of the teams that will run with the Hornets and Murray has a massive 1.53 FPPM when Derrick White is off the floor. The upside here is 70-75 DK with a triple-double and he should have had one in the last game. Murray only had seven assists but a whopping 21 potential assists in that game. This environment is really no different and the salary is totally justified. Speaking of salaries, what does Lonnie Walker have to do to get a jump here? It almost feels like a trap but he’s coming off 39.5 DK points and that is the sixth straight game he’s eclipsed 27 DK. Granted, his shot needs to be on to blow up but it is the Hornets. Walker’s usage without White is also encouraging at 29.1%, right next to Murray on the season. Jakob Poeltl and Keldon Johnson are also strong options, and the questionable players could change this team drastically ahead of lock.

Hornets – This side of the ball gets a bit trickier and even with Murray facing off defensively against him, LaMelo Ball has far more upside than a normal $8,500 player. I can confidently say that his downside is not going to be seven minutes played for 11.5 DK points again, but I don’t think I get a lot of credit for that call. He had a nightmare game and that happens with younger players but Ball still leads the Hornets with a 1.33 FPPM. I don’t mind Miles Bridges in this spot but he’s not a priority on the wing. Terry Rozier is another volatile option and that sums up the whole team. Rozier has games where he’s flirting with 50 DK points but it’s not easy to get it right and he is far from cheap at this juncture. Even in the last four weeks, his 1.10 FPPM is still behind Ball at 1.20 and the usage is still Ball’s at 28.3%. If you’re swinging for the fences, Montrezl Harrell should be on the radar as well since San Antonio is in the bottom 12 in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint.

Warriors at Lakers

Warriors – Both of these teams are really scuffling right now although at least the Warriors have good record to fall back on. I think myself or Ghost could knock down a shot against the Lakers right now (provided LeBron James is off the floor) and their defensive rating once the break is 118.6. Houston is 116.1 right now after a full season so to say the Lakers can’t defend anyone is not an exaggeration. I think Steph Curry s going to be out to make a statement after he didn’t attempt a shot in the fourth quarter of the last game as the Warriors lost to the Mavericks. Seeing as how someone like Reggie Jackson of the Clippers can score 39 real points on the Lakers, we don’t need to say much about Curry in this spot. Klay Thompson had his best game against these Lakers and is always capable of doing that again so if you can’t get to Curry, Klay works as well. He is slightly expensive for a shooter but if he gets hot he can shatter this salary. Andrew Wiggins is solid even though he’s never a favorite and Jordan Poole could take advantage of Gary Payton being out. Poole likely doesn’t start but scoring off the bench can be hard to come by for Golden State at times. Lastly, Kevon Looney is a strong option as a cheap center with 30 DK upside in this spot. Los Angeles is vulnerable to every position on the floor so I want at least one Warrior in every lineup.

Lakers – Quite simply, if your name isn’t LeBron James or Malik Monk… I’m not interested. LeBron is chasing the points record and Golden State has a weakness in the interior if Bron has a mind to get there. Monk is cheap and can hit from distance, being about the only Laker that can shoot. Past that, there is not much to like and this team looks dead in the water.

Teams To Monitor

Magic/Sixers/Wolves – These teams played last night so just be aware that someone could sit (I have a feeling Embiid is possible, but the matchup against the Heat does matter so I could be wrong).

Heat – This and one other team hold the keys to the slate in reality, at least as far as who we can afford. Last game saw them missing a ton of guys and players like Max Strus, Caleb Martin, and Gabe Vincent could be far too cheap for their situation. On the higher end, Tyler Herro would be the preferred target ahead of Bam Adebayo unless Joel Embiid sits for Philly. We’ll just have to see who is available for the Heat before venturing into who to play.

Blazers – Not to be outdone, Portland is a very important team because they have a ton of value options. Drew Eubanks, Trendon Watford, C.J. Elleby, and Greg Brown are all interesting under $5,000 with Josh Hart out. The Blazers are tanking hard so there is volatility in the minutes allotted outside of Anfernee Simons but we have the best model in the business from our main man Ghost. I’ll be relying on that to make my decisions on the Portland value.

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/5

We get a five game slate tonight and there are some very strong spots with the San Antonio Spurs facing the Charlotte Hornets leading the charge. There is also a late-night hammer that will draw plenty of attention so let’s get to work in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/5!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Spurs at Hornets

Spurs – I mean, how could we start with anything but this game? Sure, myself, Tony, and Ghost LOVE Dejounte Murray but this spot simply can’t get much better. Both of these teams are in the top four in pace and the bottom 10 in defensive rating. The Spurs are one of the teams that will run with the Hornets and Murray has a massive 1.53 FPPM when Derrick White is off the floor. The upside here is 70-75 DK with a triple-double and he should have had one in the last game. Murray only had seven assists but a whopping 21 potential assists in that game. This environment is really no different and the salary is totally justified. Speaking of salaries, what does Lonnie Walker have to do to get a jump here? It almost feels like a trap but he’s coming off 39.5 DK points and that is the sixth straight game he’s eclipsed 27 DK. Granted, his shot needs to be on to blow up but it is the Hornets. Walker’s usage without White is also encouraging at 29.1%, right next to Murray on the season. Jakob Poeltl and Keldon Johnson are also strong options, and the questionable players could change this team drastically ahead of lock.

Hornets – This side of the ball gets a bit trickier and even with Murray facing off defensively against him, LaMelo Ball has far more upside than a normal $8,500 player. I can confidently say that his downside is not going to be seven minutes played for 11.5 DK points again, but I don’t think I get a lot of credit for that call. He had a nightmare game and that happens with younger players but Ball still leads the Hornets with a 1.33 FPPM. I don’t mind Miles Bridges in this spot but he’s not a priority on the wing. Terry Rozier is another volatile option and that sums up the whole team. Rozier has games where he’s flirting with 50 DK points but it’s not easy to get it right and he is far from cheap at this juncture. Even in the last four weeks, his 1.10 FPPM is still behind Ball at 1.20 and the usage is still Ball’s at 28.3%. If you’re swinging for the fences, Montrezl Harrell should be on the radar as well since San Antonio is in the bottom 12 in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint.

Warriors at Lakers

Warriors – Both of these teams are really scuffling right now although at least the Warriors have good record to fall back on. I think myself or Ghost could knock down a shot against the Lakers right now (provided LeBron James is off the floor) and their defensive rating once the break is 118.6. Houston is 116.1 right now after a full season so to say the Lakers can’t defend anyone is not an exaggeration. I think Steph Curry s going to be out to make a statement after he didn’t attempt a shot in the fourth quarter of the last game as the Warriors lost to the Mavericks. Seeing as how someone like Reggie Jackson of the Clippers can score 39 real points on the Lakers, we don’t need to say much about Curry in this spot. Klay Thompson had his best game against these Lakers and is always capable of doing that again so if you can’t get to Curry, Klay works as well. He is slightly expensive for a shooter but if he gets hot he can shatter this salary. Andrew Wiggins is solid even though he’s never a favorite and Jordan Poole could take advantage of Gary Payton being out. Poole likely doesn’t start but scoring off the bench can be hard to come by for Golden State at times. Lastly, Kevon Looney is a strong option as a cheap center with 30 DK upside in this spot. Los Angeles is vulnerable to every position on the floor so I want at least one Warrior in every lineup.

Lakers – Quite simply, if your name isn’t LeBron James or Malik Monk… I’m not interested. LeBron is chasing the points record and Golden State has a weakness in the interior if Bron has a mind to get there. Monk is cheap and can hit from distance, being about the only Laker that can shoot. Past that, there is not much to like and this team looks dead in the water.

Teams To Monitor

Magic/Sixers/Wolves – These teams played last night so just be aware that someone could sit (I have a feeling Embiid is possible, but the matchup against the Heat does matter so I could be wrong).

Heat – This and one other team hold the keys to the slate in reality, at least as far as who we can afford. Last game saw them missing a ton of guys and players like Max Strus, Caleb Martin, and Gabe Vincent could be far too cheap for their situation. On the higher end, Tyler Herro would be the preferred target ahead of Bam Adebayo unless Joel Embiid sits for Philly. We’ll just have to see who is available for the Heat before venturing into who to play.

Blazers – Not to be outdone, Portland is a very important team because they have a ton of value options. Drew Eubanks, Trendon Watford, C.J. Elleby, and Greg Brown are all interesting under $5,000 with Josh Hart out. The Blazers are tanking hard so there is volatility in the minutes allotted outside of Anfernee Simons but we have the best model in the business from our main man Ghost. I’ll be relying on that to make my decisions on the Portland value.

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 3/3

The NBA schedule is continuing to truck along with another seven games tonight and we do have some back-to-back situations to deal with. That could change the slate in a big way after this is published, but we’ll have everything updated in the Discord as always. Let’s take a look at the spots that look great to attack in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 3/3 and carve paths to green screens again! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Kings at Spurs 

Kings – I wouldn’t expect any player for the Kings to sit out tonight as they need every single win they can get and they are still affordable for what the roles are. I would likely side with Domantas Sabonis tonight ahead of De’Aaron Fox since Dejounte Murray awaits on the other side of this matchup. San Antonio has a major weakness in the paint as they are 20th in points allowed in the paint and 26th in rebounds allowed in the paint. Sabonis is at 10.9 paint touches per game and scores 9.6 points per game in the paint so this is a great spot for him. Trey Lyles should likely continue to be a starter and as long as that happens and he’s playing 30 minutes, he’s still a value play. On top of everything else, both teams are in the top seven in pace so this is a shootout-style of game. 

Spurs – It’s a Dejounte kind of night as he is priced below his ceiling for this matchup. Since the trade deadline, Murray has a 27.5% usage rate and 1.56 FPPM with a whopping 44.2% assist rate. Given the pace of this game and how much Murray contributes to all categories, he’s one of the main targets at the top of the pricing grid. Another player who has found some stability after the deadline (credit to Tony for this play the other night) is Lonnie Walker. He’s scored at least 27 DK in the past five games and is playing 24ish minutes off the bench. What stands out is the 27.4% usage e rate which is right alongside Murray as the team lead with Derrick White playing in Boston. If you don’t play Murray, Walker is a great alternative that is cheaper as the other main cogs like Jakob Poeltl and Keldon Johnson are just average targets. 

Bulls at Hawks

Bulls – This game is a repeat of the game directly after the All-Star Break and the Bulls are getting a little more playable as far as salary. His game logs haven’t been spectacular lately but Zach LaVine is only $8,000 and that is insanely tempting. With Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso still out of the lineup, LaVine is boasting a 27.3% usage rate and 0.95 FPPM. This game environment should be one of the better ones on the slate with both teams being in the bottom 10 in defensive rating. There is an explosion game coming from LaVine sooner or later. I’m still slightly hesitant with DeMar DeRozan when he’s over $10,000 but the Hawks defense should allow him to score at least 50 DK points tonight. Nikola Vucevic would be this but the loss of Onyeka Okongwu does leave the frontcourt for Atlanta pretty thin since John Collins is doubtful as well. With this big three, you’re only playing one and trying to get the best game for the salaries involved. 

Hawks – Provided Trae Young is active and not limited, he’s close to Murray for targets at the high end. Young played 37 minutes even with his ankle banged up so I feel he’s playing and he scored 32 DK against Chicago about a week ago. However, he shot just 3-17 and that won’t happen again. The Bulls not having Ball and Caruso is a big deal and Young can pop for 60 DK. I also am very interested in Clint Capela since he’s going to have to play big minutes here with Vuc on the other side. Okongwu has been getting minutes lately but that’s not an option tonight and Capela is under $6,000. I’d be surprised if he’s not chalky but I don’t think that’s a wrong approach. Chicago is in the bottom 12 in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint and Capela put up 40 DK in the last matchup. Bogdan Bogdanovic is still a fine mid-range target as the secondary scorer in the offense and he’ll play 35 minutes in a close game. 

Honorable Mention 

Lakers at Clippers (Malik Monk has my eye as a value play)

Teams To Monitor 

Celtics – Jaylen Brown has been ruled out already and that could mean the field flocks to Jayson Tatum, who has a 1.38 FPPM and 35.4% usage rate without Brown. It is hard to argue that for cash but I think there are plenty of strong pivots for GPP. 

Nets – We’re going to see the return of Kevin Durant and without the other big guns in the lineup, KD has had 1.61 FPPM but we need to see what kind of minutes he can play before deciding. If he’s at 30-32, that would make him a great play. 

Raptors – The status of Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby are big pieces to the puzzle tonight as we’ve seen series Toronto chalk without them in the past couple of slates. 

Heat – They played last night so this could be a game where someone sits out. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 3/2

At first glance, this is a bit of a puzzle for an eight-game slate. There are some good environments but the blowout risk is real for multiple games that feature some of the most appealing teams. Let’s get right to work in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 3/2 and figure out what looks like the primary targets tonight! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Kings at Pelicans

Kings – This game is going to be high-paced as Sacramento is still in the top 10 in pace and both of these teams are in the bottom 12 in defensive rating. De’Aaron Fox has found his offensive game lately with at least 18 shots in every game since the trade deadline. We should be interested in him tonight as he could face some of C.J. McCollum’s defense and he’s been one of the worst defenders via defensive rating on the season (over 116.0). The assists have finally started to roll in with 20 over the past two games and since February 8th when he returned, he’s averaging 11.6 potential assists per game. We all love Domantas Sabonis and the Pelicans are just 16th in points allowed in the paint. Lastly, keep an eye on Trey Lyles. He started the last game and played 30 minutes and produced 34.5 DK points. Granted, he shot 10-14 and that’s not reliable but he’s still a strong value play if starting again. 

Pelicans – They’re getting a little bit harder to play at this point, although McCollum and Brandon Ingram are the top two targets. Since McCollum has been a Pelican, he’s averaging 1.32 FPPM and a 28.3% usage rate but the true shooting rate is 62.2%, which has to come down at some point. On the flip side, Ingram is at a 26.5% usage rate and 0.96 FPPM with a 51.8% TS and he’s at 54.4% on the season. Both guys have the law of averages coming for them so from a salary perspective, Ingram is a very appealing option and he’s not under $8,000 very often. The only issue with these two and Jonas Valanciunas could be the “Timberwolves Syndrome”. That means when the big three are all active, the ceiling could be capped on all of them around 45-50 DK points. That doesn’t make them awful plays, but you may not be in store for a giant 6x game. 

Thunder at Nuggets 

Thunder – It’s another Shai Gilgeous-Alexander night and he is very expensive with a lower floor than most would think. However, it has to be pointed out just how much of this offense is on him when Josh Giddey and Lu Dort are out (among others). The sample is just 120 minutes but he’s sporting a massive 1.70 FPPM, a 36.1% usage rate, and a 38.8% assist rate. For some context, Nikola Jokic on the other side of this game is at 1.75 FPPM. The easiest way for SGA to flop is for him to struggle to score because the TS is an absurd 68.3% in the 120-minute sample. That can’t hold forever but he’s got to the line a combined 26 times in the past two games and this man scored 37 points on just 16 attempts in the last game. That was with Davion Mitchell harassing him in that game and Denver simply doesn’t have that caliber of defender on the perimeter. I’m mostly avoiding the group of Tre Mann, Darius Bazley, and others but Aleksej Pokusevski continues to be a GPP target. His range of outcomes is wide but he’s consistently shown a ceiling over 30 DK and the Thunder are very short-handed tonight. 

Nuggets – The reigning, defending MVP takes on one of the worst frontcourts in basketball tonight. There are other studs in play, but Jokic is surely one of them and we saw just how dominant he was last time while scoring eight points. There are very few players who can score 49.5 DK while taking five shots all game. 

Honorable Mention 

Blazers at Suns

Teams To Monitor

76ers – I’m just leaving a note that I will prefer James Harden to Joel Embiid as of now for Philly. Biid will likely score more raw points but he’s not the triple-double threat that the suddenly very spry-looking Harden is. I’ll take my chances that Harden keeps the scoring close and vaults Embiid on rebounds and assists. On the flip side of this game, Immanuel Quickley could be a value but I’m not sure I trust the Knicks to get him minutes. He only played 26 last game, which isn’t bad but can we see this young guy on the court??

Pacers – Malcolm Brogdon will return after sitting out for a back-to-back set and even with Tyrese Haliburton, Brogdon is affordable against the defensively deficient Magic. 

Heat – They will be without Kyle Lowry again so Gabe Vincent is still far too cheap. He played 32 minutes without Lowry in the last game and the Heat and Bucks are first and second in 3-point frequency allowed. Vincent is shooting 37.8% on the season and Jimmy Butler is still under $9,500. He’s had 1.29 FPPM without Lowry on the season. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/27

We have another five games tonight and these kinds of slates tend to be a favorite because it is much harder to get overwhelmed with options. It’s easier to be focused and not feel like you’re missing anyone but there are some very strong game environments again tonight. We’ve got plenty of studs to pick from in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/27 so let’s get right to work to find out paths! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Clippers at Rockets 

Clippers – If the last Rockets game was any indication, the Clips will very likely be chalky and I’m more than willing to run with the field on that for most guys. These teams played each other right before the break and Reggie Jackson feels expensive to me, but he does lead the team with a 29.9% usage rate without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. He’s absolutely in play but it could be more cash and possibly risk fading him in GPP. My main two players would be Terrance Mann and Luke Kennard. Mann is in my sights since he can do a little bit of everything as far as scoring, assists, and rebounds and he could even sneak in a double-double like last game. As of Kennard, the salary is getting toward the upper limit but the Rockets are 10th in frequency allowed from deep and Kennard is now over 45% from beyond the arc this year. Both Marcus Morris and Ivica Zubac are on the fringes as well as Zubac should be needed to deal with the size of Christian Wood and Alperen Sengun. 

Rockets – The interest in the Rockets are going to be dictated by the status of Kevin Porter Jr. as he is questionable for tonight’s game. If he’s out, that gives a nice bump to Jalen Green and Dennis Schroeder who will share a lot of the work in the backcourt. In addition, Wood sees a usage rate bump of 2% and he climbs up to 26.1% so he would be in play as well. Wood is someone I struggle with when he’s over $8,000 since this is a player that doesn’t even average 38 DK points but he does have a ceiling, so perhaps this is a GPP-only play. If Porter is active, he and Green would be my favorites as they can pick on the Clippers perimeter defense a little bit. Both teams are in the top half of the league as far as pace and we all know what the Rockets bring to the table for the game environment. 

Pistons at Hornets 

Pistons – Typically the Pistons aren’t much of a thought but that changes pretty quickly when they face the Hornets. Charlotte is basically a carbon copy in defensive rating and pace as the Rockets are and they tend to pull big games out of their opponents. Cade Cunningham is very affordable for his ceiling although he’s a very volatile player. The true shooting for the season is just 48.8% but his usage is 27%, exactly what we’re looking for against the Hornets. His assist rate also leads the team at 27.2% so there is upside all around but I would be hesitant to play him in cash games on DK. Isaiah Stewart is very cheap and it should be noted he scored 36 DK against these Hornets earlier in the month, although that’s not the main reason you play him. Stewart is 14th in paint touches this season and Charlotte is still 29th in points and rebounds allowed in the paint on the year. I’m going to be tempted by Jerami Grant but he’s under 1.00 FPPM at this juncture of the season. 

Hornets – You might think that this is a clash of sales but Detroit is 12th in pace, which could lead to a major up-and-down game here. The good news is both teams are in the bottom eight in defensive rating as well so there is plenty to like from the Charlotte side. Montrezl Harrell is the new hotness as it were and his salary is getting up there but he can touch 40 DK in a hurry. Detroit is only 10th in points allowed in the paint but they are 21st in rebounds and Trez leads the league in points scored from putbacks. If Trez is too rich, Mason Plumlee could be a cheaper substitute but has his own risks as well. Finally, LaMelo Ball has one of the highest ceilings on the slate but he also is one of the harder players to pin down on any given night. His minutes have been more secure since the Hornets traded Ish Smith so that does help and he’s driving to the hoop 14.2 times per game. 

Honorable Mention – Pelicans at Lakers

Teams To Monitor 

Nuggets – It’s a back-to-back for Nikola Jokić but he sees virtually no change in his stats in his eight games on zero days rest. There is nobody on the interior for the Trail Blazers that should give Jokic any kind of resistance. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/26

There may only be six games tonight for the NBA slate but man they are some good ones on paper. We do have four teams on back-to-back situations but that’s not a major concern past possibly San Antonio coming off a double-overtime game. Let’s dig into that spot and much more in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/26 and start carving out our paths to green again tonight! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Raptors at Hawks 

Raptors – Toronto may have gotten their doors blown off last night but we have short memories and these guys are going to be fresh. The only player that came through for us was Scottie Barnes and I’m going right back to him as his salary fell by $200. The Hawks are in the bottom five in defensive rating and the main guys in the rotation play near 40 minutes per game when it is actually competitive. With OG Anunoby out for the next little while, Barnes has more secure minutes than ever. 

It’s not the same style of matchup but Pascal Siakam also can’t play any worse than yesterday and no John Collins is going to help as well. I’m not likely to spend up here on Siakam as Fred VanVleet would be my preferred player. FVV still is right around the lead behind Siakam for usage (24.5%) and FPPM (1.11) and with the matchup on the perimeter against Trae Young, I would take the savings over Siakam. 

Hawks – Ghost says it a lot that we want shooters against the zone from the Raptors defense and hello Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Young came out of the break and shot 3-17 last game and managed to score 32 DK even with just 14 real points. His price isn’t going to get a lot lower than $9,500 and Toronto is in the bottom 10 in points allowed in the paint. Young can get to the rim and he’s scoring 9.8 points per game in the paint and shooting 37.9% from distance. This is a game that Young can go 35/10 pretty easily. 

I’m also going right back to Bog Bog because he’s still not pricey enough. He finally seems to have found his groove and he’s scored at least 31 DK in five straight while taking at least 14 shots in three of the five. With Collins out, he needs to be more active in the offense and he took 12 3-pointers in the last game. That’s not likely to happen again but the Raptors are in the bottom 12 in 3-point frequency allowed and FG% allowed. He can shoot and I want one of these two tonight, depending on the build. I’m a little shaky on Clint Capela because once again he was under 30 minutes (29 is still under 30) and the Raptors don’t have to play a center like Chicago did. Onyeka Okongwu could be an elite GPP play in just 18-20 minutes under $4,000 and he might be a slightly better fit against Toronto. 

Grizzlies vs Bulls 

Grizzlies – The name of the game tonight is “bounce-back game” and Ja Morant has no business being under $10,00 against a team that is missing two defenders on the perimeter and sits 27th in points allowed in the paint. Morant is leading the league in points off drives to the basket at 14.7 and won’t shoot 7-25 again as he did in the last game. Morant is a dark horse MVP candidate (he won’t win) but he’s put Memphis on his back through most of the season and tonight will be no different with 1.50 FPPM since Dillon Brooks is out. The same could be said for Desmond Bane since he shot 5-15 and the Bulls have allowed the sixth-highest FG% from deep this year. Steven Adams is a nice mid-range center play as the Bulls are weaker in the paint and they’ll likely want him to mirror Nikola Vucevic for a good chunk of the game but Ja is my priority right now and fits with Bogdanovic from Atlanta nicely. 

Bulls – This is definitely a spot where I don’t need a run back because the only salary that is palatable is Zach LaVine. Everyone “disappointed” to some extent on their salary and I include DeMar DeRozan in that. The guy is an absolute wizard in the mid-range shooting but he scored 37 real points and 51 DK points. I’m not saying 51 DK is bad but when a player has to score 37 to get there, that’s nerve-wracking. LaVine and Vuc were both under 40 DK but LaVine was also just 7-17 and didn’t do much outside of his scoring either. Both teams are in the top 13 in pace so I won’t fight you with a run-back, but Memphis is ninth in defensive rating. They aren’t my main focus on the slate. 

Teams To Monitor 

Cavaliers – They are down Darius Garland, Rajon Rondo, and Caris LeVert tonight so Brandon Goodwin will be one of the premier value players of the night at $4,200. I don’t mind Lauri Markkanen either as he played 28 minutes in his return and there are a lot of shot attempts that have opened up. 

Nets – This game is in Milwaukee so Kyrie Irving can play, which is more than can be said for a player like Ben Simmons who appears not that close to getting back. Gotta be careful from all that sitting out, I guess. I’m not saying Simmons should be expected for 35 minutes but the Nets are getting smashed routinely and could use any type of reinforcements. They are 10 point underdogs tonight and Kyrie is alright but I prefer Morant or Young. On another note, if this game could stay close Giannis Antetokounmpo could lead the slate in DK points. 

Kings/Nuggets – All I have to say is Domantas Sabonis and Nikola Jokić.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/24

We are back for a seven-game slate chock full of NBA action and there are some really strong games to pick from tonight! For the purposes of this article, we’re treating it as though every player that was involved in the All-Star Break will be fully active tonight unless we get news otherwise. Plenty of teams don’t have the luxury of sitting players so let’s dive into the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/24 and carve paths to green! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Grizzlies at Wolves

Grizzlies – I have zero concern with Ja Morant coming out of the break since he played 38 minutes prior to the ASB and participated in the activities for the weekend. This game has the highest total on the board by a lot at 239 and the spread is under three points as of Wednesday afternoon and Dillon Brooks remains out for the Grizzlies. With Brooks off the floor this season, Morant has 1.42 points per minute with a 34.2% usage art and 34.1% assist rate to back that up. Both teams are in the top eight in pace this season as well so this is a game we need some exposure to all the way around. 

Now, we have some guards that are going to be popular in a later game so Morant could be a little more tricky to fit. If that’s the case in your build, Desmond Bane, Steven Adams, and Jaren Jackson Jr. are always on the board for GPP options. Minnesota is allowing the fifth-highest frequency of 3-point shots allowed (42.8%) and that is always interesting for Bane. He’s shooting just a hair under 42% from deep this year and is at 1.03 points per minute himself. JJJ is capable of monster games with 1.13 FPPM and has the second-highest usage rate at 26.4% and they will need his size with the Wolves lineup on the other side. The same can be said for Adams and Minnesota is bottom 12 in points and rebounds allowed in the paint, directly in the wheelhouse for Adams. 

Wolves – The conundrum of who to play from Minnesota continues as the trio of Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell all are affordable but all three are volatile. The usage is all similar but KAT does have an advantage in FPPM at 1.34 to 1.14 for D’Lo and 1.09 for Edwards. Having said that, Edwards could have the highest ceiling because he is leading the trio in attempts at 953 while KAT is at 867. That’s a big time gap and D’Lo has the assists and ball distribution behind him with a 32.3% assist rate. 

The biggest issue with D’Lo is you can be at the mercy of the 3-point shot because 385 of his 714 attempts have been behind the arc and that can come and go for a player that’s shooting 35.1% from that range. With Ant being the cheapest, he would be my choice but I’m not exactly forcing one of these guys into the lineup, and choosing the wrong player is pretty easy to do. You could roll with Patrick Beverly who is a one point per minute, but Memphis is first in rebounding and Beverly might have a harder time getting the periphery stats he needs to pay off. 

Hawks at Bulls 

Hawks – We’re still unsure of the status of John Collins leading into this game, but Trae Young should not be under $10,000. It appears that DK read the box score of 38 DK points in the last game but he played just 25 minutes as the Hawks killed the Magic. Chicago has fallen to 20th in defensive rating on the season and they are still without Lonzo Ball and

Alex Caruso, a big boost for Young. If Collins remains off the floor, Clint Capela could be chalky for the third straight slate. He has played at least 31 minutes in two of the past three games before the break and they would need him to counter Nikola Vucevic for the Bulls. He’s still too cheap for his potential and Chicago is 27th in points per game allowed in the paint. However, the main player that is underpriced might just be Bogdan Bogdanovic as he’s rattled off four straight games of 31 DK points or more and is still under $5,500. Let’s see what happens with Collins but no matter what, Young and Bogdanovic are primary targets. 

Bulls – Running back any Hawks options with a Bulls player is a little tough to get behind with the salary involved with the exception of one player. Vuc and DeMar DeRozan are really pricey (especially DDR) but Zach LaVine could hold the key to the runback. I would expect him to play full minutes as he played 11 at the ASG. A player who has any issues with the knee wouldn’t play any minutes and if he comes into this game still nursing any injury, Bulls fans should be really ticked. He’s not on the injury report at all, he’s under $9,000, and he has a 29.5% usage rate and 1.18 FPPM without the players they are missing. With the Hawks sitting 27th in defensive rating, this is a prime spot for a bounce-back game for LaVine. Provided he plays, everyone else is a little too much for my blood. 

Suns at Thunder 

Suns – It appeared that Cam Payne was going to be the chalk of the slate but he was surprisingly ruled out on Wednesday, so the spotlight turns to Elf Payton. He likely (Aaron Holiday could start I suppose) starts this game and without Payne and Chris Paul on the floor, Payton has 1.01 FPPM on just a 48% true shooting rate. At $3,400, he should play toward 30 minutes and it’s extremely hard to turn away from that salary. Additionally, Devin Booker under $9,000 is hard to pass as he sports a 34.1% usage and 1.30 FPPM. It doesn’t hurt that the Thunder are without Lu Dort either and it’s not that he’s the best defender ever, but he can be a pain to primary scoring options. It just makes the path that much easier. The big question with the Suns is can I play three together (Elf and Booker work perfectly well) because Deandre Ayton is under $7,000. His situation is interesting because he does lose his pick-and-roll distributor in CP3 but the Thunder are 17th in points and 30th in rebounds allowed in the paint. Elf does have a 38.5% frequency as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll so he can do it, but there’s zero debate that it’s not the same quality of play. I lean toward playing Payton with just one of Booker or Ayton tonight with the number of strong spots there are on the board. 

Thunder – Tonight sees Shai Gilgeous-Alexander make his return to the lineup after not playing since the 28th of January but I’m not sure I have to have anyone from the Thunder tonight. Getting SGA at $8,900 is fair but he hasn’t played in a month and I could see some rust being there. He needs his shot to be working to pay off this salary but it also hurts the upside of Josh Giddey. He started to scratch the surface on just how much of a fantasy monster he could be ahead of the ASB with three straight triple-double but the salary reflects that and he’s not the focal point any longer. With Dort, Kenrich Williams, and Ty Jerome missing tonight, Aleksej Pokusevski could still get some serious run in this rotation. The minutes can be hard to predict for him but when he’s played 30 minutes, he’s paid off this price tag. He does a little bit of everything and has .90 FPPM with a pathetic 37.1% true shooting rate with that trio out. Poku is still very affordable and could go totally overlooked. 

Honorable Mention 

Nuggets at Kings 

Warriors at Blazers (this game could go very small since Jusuf Nurkic is out with an injury)

Teams To Monitor 

Cavaliers – Both Caris LeVert and Darius Garland are out tonight (Garland playing at all in the ASG looks bad right now) and that could lead to a player like Brian Goodwin or Rajon Rondo being very popular. With super-cheap guards in play, Nikola Jokić against the Kings could be very popular and needed in cash games tonight but we’ll see how the day evolves. 

Nets – They are still without their three main guys tonight so Seth Curry, Cam Thomas, Patty Mills, and Andre Drummond are in play to varying degrees. Drum continues to taunt me as he hasn’t gotten solid minutes yet but Robert Williams is on track to play for Boston. They need the size to help with him but I wouldn’t go overboard here as the Celtics are 0.3 points away from leading the league in defensive rating. We have other much cheaper avenues for value so possibly just one Net is the answer. 

Bet Of The Night 

In addition to liking Zach LaVine for DFS, I’m targeting his assist prop on DK tonight. They have him listed at Over 4.5 Assists for -105 and LaVine already averages 4.5 assists per game overall. When Ball and Caruso are off the floor, his assist rate is 21.1% to go along with that usage rate of nearly 30%. Since we talked about the Hawks sitting 27th in defensive rating, LaVine will have plenty of chances to dish the rock tonight. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/17

This is the last article for a week before we get another slate at all and we have five games ahead of us tonight with three teams on a back-to-back situation. Those teams are on red alert to have someone sit but every team is tonight, just like yesterday. Now, in most situations yesterday it worked against us as far as planning but it’s a new day in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/17 so let’s highlight who we like! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Heat at Hornets 

Heat – One aspect that has been a constant in every single game this season has been the #FlowChart against the Hornets. Are you a big man of any skill level? If Yes, we want you in our DFS lineups and today that means Bam Adebayo. Two things stand out for Bam in this one and the first (and of less importance) was the game on the fifth of this month. Bam put up 49.5 DK points against this Hornets team…in 28 minutes and on 7-21 shooting. The second facet that jumps out is the Heat opened up as just four-point favorites against Charlotte and that is a red flag that Jimmy Butler could sit. He’s been questionable a lot lately and I’m not sure if there’s any reason for such a close spread unless Butler could be out. With both Butler and Tyler Herro off the floor (Herro is already out), Bam has 1.44 points per minute and a 29.3% usage rate. Be prepared for Miami to potentially be chalk with Bam, Kyle Lowry, and value plays if Butler joins Herro as missing this game. 

Hornets – The Hornets should continue running a very short rotation with Gordon Hayward and Cody Martin remaining out. Only seven players hit the floor for 32 minutes or more in an overtime game and the duo of Mason Plumlee and Montrezl Harrell are actually both interesting. They’re not going to stop Bam at all but the Hornets have to try and contain him somehow and they played a good bit together in this past game. The more expensive options of LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, and Terry Rozier are all interesting and I want to see if Butler plays before deciding. If he’s out, the matchups are much more wide open but Ball is still my favorite as he is every night with this team. He can be volatile but he has the highest odds of a ceiling game with 1.37 points per minute with Hayward and Martin out. 

Wizards at Nets 

Wizards – I’m not sure if I can buy into Kyle Kuzma at $9,000 but the ceiling outcome is undeniably there for him (as is the floor). He’s had a couple of big games since the trade deadline and has a 25.7% assist rate and 1.16 FPPM, but that could fall way short of paying off the salary. It may be wiser to stick to value players like Deni Avdija, Raul Neto, and possibly even Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Deni and Neto have both been playing 30+ minutes with at least 0.90 FPPM in that same time period and their salaries are way more appealing since the Nets have been so bad defensively over the past month. 

Note – The next paragraph is what I wrote about the Nets just yesterday and everything outside of the Knicks references still stands 1,000%. I mean, Drummond played 22 minutes and almost hit 22 DraftKings points. Now he gets the Washington frontcourt that is bottom 10 in points and rebounds allowed in the paint? Yes, please. The only difference is Cam Thomas deserves some love. That’s not just because he went nuts in the fourth but if someone is taking 15+ shots for Brooklyn, I’m interested. 

Nets – Since this game is in Madison Square Garden and in New York, Kyrie Irving will not be in the lineup and that opes up all sorts of options for the Nets. I honestly don’t understand why DK didn’t move any salaries for the Nets past a couple of hundred dollars and that means that Seth Curry and Andre Drummond are both prime targets. Both of these players accounted for at least 1.21 points per minute in their Nets debut and Curry had a massive 31.5% usage rate. To get him under $6,000 is an absolute gift and Drummond is not nearly expensive enough either. He only played 24 minutes and even though New York is in the top 10 in points and rebounds allowed, Drummond is too good in the paint at generating fantasy points to pass under $6,000 as well. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him climb to at least 28 minutes and possibly 30 with the Knicks matchup either. Patty Mills is fine but he’s legitimately relying on just his shot and I tend to not want to chase Bruce Brown. He’s not going to shoot 8-12 and rack up five steals again and I would likely max my Nets exposure at three. Curry and Drummond remain two of the strongest point-per-dollar options on the slate. 

Teams To Monitor

Rockets – The 76ers visiting the Bucks will get some well-deserved attention tonight but one route to affording Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo could be the Rockets. Both Kevin Porter Jr. and Christian Wood sat last night, allowing Alpern Sengun and Dennis Schroeder to each post 40+ DraftKings Points with Jae’Sean Tate not far behind at 36. We need news before lock to be sure but for GPP, leaving some roster spots available to get to Rockets could be a difference-maker if we don’t. Every Rocket I played last night was under 8% because nobody knew they would be short until 30 minutes after lock. They could hold the keys to the slate or be nothing major, so we’ll have to play the waiting game. 

ou can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/16

This is the last big sale before the All-Star break and with so many teams playing their last game, you must be around for the entire night if you plan on playing. We could have a ton of news tonight and with teams potentially sitting gym to get an extended break so be prepared. Let’s dive into the games we do like in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/16 and highlight what we’re chasing!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Nets at Knicks 

Nets – Since this game is in Madison Square Garden and in New York, Kyrie Irving will not be in the lineup and that opes up all sorts of options for the Nets. I honestly don’t understand why DK didn’t move any salaries for the Nets past a couple of hundred dollars and that means that Seth Curry and Andre Drummond are both prime targets. Both of these players accounted for at least 1.21 points per minute in their Nets debut and Curry had a massive 31.5% usage rate. To get him under $6,000 is an absolute gift and Drummond is not nearly expensive enough either. He only played 24 minutes and even though New York is in the top 10 in points and rebounds allowed, Drummond is too good in the paint at generating fantasy points to pass under $6,000 as well. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him climb to at least 28 minutes and possibly 30 with the Knicks matchup either. Patty Mills is fine but he’s legitimately relying on just his shot and I tend to not want to chase Bruce Brown. He’s not going to shoot 8-12 and rack up five steals again and I would likely max my Nets exposure at three. Curry and Drummond remain two of the strongest point-per-dollar options on the slate. 

Knicks – DraftKings must be on the FanDuel schedule of updating salaries because Julius Randle has not hit the $10,000 threshold despite R.J. Barrett still being out and Randle having four straight games of at least 56 DK points. While Barrett has been off the floor this season, Randle has a usage of 30% and 1.20 FPPM so he is not quite expensive enough yet, not to mention the Nets aren’t exactly equipped to deal with him. Quentin Grimes has also been a prime beneficiary of Barrett being out as he’s slid into the starting lineup and played 31, 37, and 40 minutes. Thibs Gonna Thibs and Grimes brought the confidence last game with 18 field goal attempts so I’m totally fine going back to the well at the salary. I can’t stomach Evan Fournier at $6,500 but two players that are worth deeper GPP shots are Mitchell Robinson and Kemba Walker. I can’t stress just how volatile these two are and they could see under 20 minutes, but Robinson could be needed if Drummond gets 30 minutes and he’s about a point per minute. For Kemba, the shot almost has to work for him but they are still short and he could see close to 28 minutes himself. They both have upside over their salary against the Nets. 

Kings at Bulls 

Kings – They bit us right in the backside in their last game but they shot horribly all night and just couldn’t stay in it. Don’t let that cloud that while De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis have shared the floor, they each have a usage rate of at least 25.9% and 0.93 fantasy points per minute. Sabonis has gotten the much better end of that with 1.28 FPPM but it seems impossible that Fox will continue to have just a 13% assist rate while they share the court. To wit, Fox has averaged 10.3 potential assists in those three games together and he’s made an average of 61.4 passes. On the cheaper side, Harrison Barnes is always in play but the 0.90 FPPM with a 77.3% true shooting rate with the big duo isn’t super encouraging. Donte DiVincenzo is of interest as well since he’s not yet $4,000 but don’t expect another 10x return. He also pilfered the ball five times but what is nice to see is he’s taken 20 FGA in just 46 minutes and 13 have been from deep. 

Bulls – You have to love Nikola Vucevic in this spot as Sabonis is not exactly a fearsome defender and Chicago continues to be short Zach LaVine, Alex Caruso, and Lonzo Ball. In that scenario, Vuc has 1.36 fantasy points per minute which are actually higher than DeMar DeRozan. He may not hold a candle to DDR in usage with DeRozan sporting a 38.2% mark but Vuc does a lot more rebounding and that should come into play against the Kings. They are 28th in rebounds allowed in the paint and Vuc is averaging 18.5 rebound chances per night, ninth in the league. With the salaries involved, I’m prioritizing him over DDR because I believe Vuc is just a hair safer. Perhaps we can look at DeRozan points for a wager to get some play with him. Coby White is getting up there but he does have a 23.2% usage and that also hurts Ayo Dosunmu as far as the ceiling goes. I’d be focused mostly on the star guys here. 

Blazers at Grizzlies 

Blazers – This team is barely recognizable from the start of the season as the keys have been given to Anfernee Simons, Josh Hart, Justise Winslow, and Jusuf Nurkic (sort of). That quartet all has a usage rate of at least 17.6% (Simons leads at 29.1%) and Nurkic leads in FPPM at 1.37 over the past two weeks, so each has some appeal here to be sure. Memphis played last night and Portland has been feisty in this past handful of games. Memphis also plays fast so this game could get up and down and Portland is 28th in defensive rating on the season, so that could help keep the point total high. The safety player feels like Winslow just because he’s the cheapest because all of these players have a floor. Simons could have a bad shooting night, Hart could not contribute across the board, and Nurkic could lose minutes if Memphis wants to play a little smaller. The good news is except for Nurkic, the other three feel like their workload is a stone-cold lock of 35 minutes or more. 

Grizzlies – We’ll have to see if Ja Morant plays tonight or if he sat just because it was a back-to-back. If he’s out, Tyus Jones, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane are all amazing targets once again and everyone’s salary went down. If Ja is out, they will be chalky again and that is especially true of Jones. He will be a free square in all formats. On the chance that Morant plays (wouldn’t be surprising to see him sit before the break), I’d love him against the Blazers but we’ll see. I’m prepared to pair up Jones with one of Bane or Jackson in a lot of lineups tonight. He’s been a forgotten man but Dillon Brooks is also still out and JJJ is at a 33.1% usage rate and 1.32 FPPM without those two on the floor. this season. Both marks lead the team by a considerable margin and he’s averaging 46 DK points per 36 minutes in that scenario. 

Honorable Mention 

Rockets at Suns (maybe CP3 or Booker sits on a back-to-back)

Nuggets at Warriors

Hawks at Magic

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