NBA dfs

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/19

After a monster slate last night with more value than you could shake a stick at, tonight’s slate boasts just three games and almost no value early in the morning. If nothing changes, it could be a puzzle of a slate but this could be a news-packed slate for just three contests. Let’s go through the NBA Roundtable and talk about who we like in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/19 to find green screens!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”

Ghost: Balanced unless players get ruled out on the second half of a back-to-back.

Adam: I’ll be looking to make lineups around one stud and balanced after that as things stand in the morning. However, this slate dictates staying tuned to the Discord because four of the six teams played last night. This slate could change dramatically and we could have a stars and scrubs approach handed to us if players sit out. 

Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”

Ghost: Luka Doncic.

Adam: Provided he plays, It’s Luka Doncic. I have more faith in him in a back-to-back scenario than I do with LeBron James and we’ve attacked the Charlotte Hornets all season long with great results. There are zero reasons to stop doing that now. Doncic is coming off a rough game last night as far as fantasy points, but I’ll confidently say the odds are he will not shoot 5-20 from the floor once again. The pace the Hornets play at is perfect for Doncic to flirt with a 30-point triple-double tonight. 

Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”

Ghost: Darius Garland.

Adam: It will Be LeBron, just by default. I’d be surprised if we could afford both Doncic and LeBron in the same lineups and James played 45 minutes last night. Due respect to one of the greatest players we’ve ever seen, the mileage on his body has to be piling up from this season and many others at this point. It’s a rough turnaround with travel so even though Washington is a strong matchup, I’ll take the young legs and Doncic. 

Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”

Ghost: Luka Doncic and Hachimura (Gafford is Porzingis sits out).

Adam: I’m sticking with Dallas and rolling Dwight Powell with Doncic. Powell has been playing at least 22 minutes as of late and is pushing 30 minutes or more most nights. Every now and again he can go off for a huge game (like he did against Houston)and Charlotte is in the bottom-five in rebounds and points in the paint. This duo can rip up the Hornets in the pick-and-roll game as Powell is the roll man at a 28.7% frequency. He’s scoring 2.5 points per game but we can expect more than that tonight. With Spencer Dinwiddie ruled out, the three-man stack of Doncic, Powell, and Jalen Brunson is very appealing. 

Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”

Ghost: Dallas beats Charlotte by 10+ behind Doncic’s 30-point effort.

Adam: Luka Doncic outscores every player on the slate by at least 12 fantasy points and no player over $8,500 other than Luka is in the winning lineup. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/19

After a monster slate last night with more value than you could shake a stick at, tonight’s slate boasts just three games and almost no value early in the morning. If nothing changes, it could be a puzzle of a slate but this could be a news-packed slate for just three contests. Let’s go through the NBA Roundtable and talk about who we like in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/19 to find green screens!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”

Ghost: Balanced unless players get ruled out on the second half of a back-to-back.

Adam: I’ll be looking to make lineups around one stud and balanced after that as things stand in the morning. However, this slate dictates staying tuned to the Discord because four of the six teams played last night. This slate could change dramatically and we could have a stars and scrubs approach handed to us if players sit out. 

Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”

Ghost: Luka Doncic.

Adam: Provided he plays, It’s Luka Doncic. I have more faith in him in a back-to-back scenario than I do with LeBron James and we’ve attacked the Charlotte Hornets all season long with great results. There are zero reasons to stop doing that now. Doncic is coming off a rough game last night as far as fantasy points, but I’ll confidently say the odds are he will not shoot 5-20 from the floor once again. The pace the Hornets play at is perfect for Doncic to flirt with a 30-point triple-double tonight. 

Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”

Ghost: Darius Garland.

Adam: It will Be LeBron, just by default. I’d be surprised if we could afford both Doncic and LeBron in the same lineups and James played 45 minutes last night. Due respect to one of the greatest players we’ve ever seen, the mileage on his body has to be piling up from this season and many others at this point. It’s a rough turnaround with travel so even though Washington is a strong matchup, I’ll take the young legs and Doncic. 

Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”

Ghost: Luka Doncic and Hachimura (Gafford is Porzingis sits out).

Adam: I’m sticking with Dallas and rolling Dwight Powell with Doncic. Powell has been playing at least 22 minutes as of late and is pushing 30 minutes or more most nights. Every now and again he can go off for a huge game (like he did against Houston)and Charlotte is in the bottom-five in rebounds and points in the paint. This duo can rip up the Hornets in the pick-and-roll game as Powell is the roll man at a 28.7% frequency. He’s scoring 2.5 points per game but we can expect more than that tonight. With Spencer Dinwiddie ruled out, the three-man stack of Doncic, Powell, and Jalen Brunson is very appealing. 

Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”

Ghost: Dallas beats Charlotte by 10+ behind Doncic’s 30-point effort.

Adam: Luka Doncic outscores every player on the slate by at least 12 fantasy points and no player over $8,500 other than Luka is in the winning lineup. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/16

We’ve got a giant slate ahead of us tonight with 24 teams in action and there is one game with serious playoff implications that could be the best spot of the night. I know one of my primary targets at the top of the grid will come from that, but we have studs all over in dynamite spots. Let’s talk about all of it in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/16 to see what we love tonight to find green screens! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Hawks at Hornets 

Hawks – There are two things that stick out like a sore thumb for this game. The first is these teams are the ninth and 10th seed in the East right now, separated by a half-game in the standings. The second is Trae Young dropped 76 DK in the last game and somehow his salary didn’t move a single dollar on DK. Young has turned it on with 93 raw points in his past two games and John Collins has already been ruled out for this game. Young sits at 1.48 FPPM without him this season and has a 36.5% usage rate against the team that ranks third in pace and 23rd in defensive rating. Atlanta is 27th themselves and this game will surely check in with a massive total. While Bogdan Bogdanovic and Clint Capela will draw some attention, I’ll once again turn to Onyeka Okongwu. We have a talented, if inexperienced, big man who has been logging 18-22 minutes lately. Capela’s minutes have been down and it’s a little harder to justify his expense. It’s not out of the realm (and is somewhat likely) to see Capela get run off the floor in this spot. If Danilo Gallinari is out once again, that frontcourt is thin and Okongwu has yet to break the $4,000 barrier while possessing 1.01 FPPM across 547 minutes without Collins. He’s averaging seven paint touches per game and Charlotte is bottom three in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint. That also helps Young, who sits sixth in drives to the hoop per game. 

Hornets – Typically, we’d be starting with LaMelo Ball and I won’t say he’s an awful play, but I’m not sure how many more games I want to play Ball and watch him play 30 minutes while Terry Rozier flirts with 40. Now that they are the same salary and have similar upside/downside risks, perhaps it’s better to just take the shot at Rozier. The FPPM is a distinct advantage for Ball at 1.33 to 1.06 but an extra 7-8 minutes for Rozier closes that gap. The Hawks are also 0.3% away from leading the league in 3-point field goal percentage allowed so Rozier could have a bombs away game where he hits five or more triples in addition to everything else. You can also feel comfortable acting the wings of Atlanta here with Miles Bridges, and it’s a tough call between him and Rozier. I do feel like I’ll want two studs tonight so the mid-range may go a little by the wayside, but I’m interested in a run-back from the Hornets. Bridges is going to draw some soft defensive opposition of Gallo or worse and has 1.05 FPPM. The spread opened at three points and dropped to two quickly so this game should be a run-and-gun style game. 

Mavericks at Nets 

Mavericks – The battle between Luka Doncic and Kevin Durant is going to be a lot of fun and both superstars are a little lower in salary than they have been lately. Doncic avoided an injury scare last game so that partially explains the mediocre results and he’s not going to take just 16 shots very often. I’d want to be 100% sure he’s good to go but he did play 39 minutes and the injury happened in the first quarter so the concern is not overwhelming. He’s not going against a scary defense either with the Nets 22nd in defensive rating. In the past month, Doncic has been playing better than at any point of the year with 1.56 FPPM and a 39.1% usage rate. Past Doncic, it gets a little harder to love anyone. Both Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie are not cheap and Dorian Finney-Smith has too much downside for this slate in my eyes. As it stands, I’d be very interested in Luka but the health of him and the Mavericks could change this slate immensely. 

Nets – The more interesting side of this game is the Nets side. Kyrie Irving was a real-life version of the last solo Godzilla movie when Godzilla turns nuclear and levels parts of Boston. Since this game is in Brooklyn, he won’t be active tonight and the Nets had the luxury of limiting Durant to 30 minutes last night. He will be the main focus of the Nets and has massive upside, but Brooklyn could carry immense value plays. If Seth Curry and Cam Thomas remain out, Brooklyn is down to a seven-man rotation that includes KD, Andre Drummond, Bruce Brown, Goran Dragic, James Johnson, Patty Mills, and Nic Claxton. Dragic will certainly draw another start and even though he was quiet last night, it’s hard to shine when a teammate is scoring 60 points. He only played 20 minutes last night so I’m happy going right back to the well and the center combo of Drummond and Speedy Claxton are very appealing. Dallas is just 17th in rebounding in the paint and there is lob potential with Claxton while for Drummond, the only defensive bodies are Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber. I expect the game to turn a little smaller so Claxton may be my choice, but we need to see who’s all active for Brooklyn. They will be of strong interest and Durant’s assist prop will be one I have my eyes on as well. 

Nuggets at Wizards 

Nuggets – Nikola Jokic is under $12,000 on a full slate and I’m not totally sure why. I grant you, the last three games have been average for him for fantasy but the Nuggets played six games in eight days and he finished off in a tough matchup against Joel Embiid. He will see no such matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are 26th in points allowed in the paint. Jokic is second in the league in points scored in the post-up game and the Wizards are dead last in points allowed, on top of ranking 24th in defensive rating this season. The likes of Daniel Gafford and Kristaps Porzingis aren’t going to stop him and the Young/Joker duo is a target of mine if we get the proper value players. This is a little bit of a chase but Bones Hyland is starting to see things click for him. He’s producing 1.19 FPPM over the past month and he’s no different than a lot of rookies where we see a bump in performance after the break. Denver needs every once of scoring from the bench and he may not see 31 minutes a night, but he could creep into 25 at this point and against Washington, that’s interesting. The 23.1% usage rate in that time frame says this may not be just hot shooting either with him and DeMarcus Cousins being vital bench players. 

Wizards – This is extremely scary to say but I don’t mind Porzingis. Now, do I play him on this crowded of a slate, probably not in SE formats. He’s more of an MME guy but paring him and Jokic could wind up paying off. Scoring 120 DK points isn’t out of the realm (it would be close to the ceiling, hence MME only for me) but since arriving in Washington, KP has commanded a 31.2% usage rate and 1.44 FPPM across 101 minutes. If he gets to 30-32 minutes for the first time, he could rack up a double-double and approach 50 DK but things have to break right for him. I can’t pay the salary for Kyle Kuzma at this juncture because when they have shared the court, Kuzma has gone down to 1.03 FPPM. This is mostly a spot where you play Jokic/KP or Jokic solo, pending any news during the day. 

Honorable Mention 

Lakers at Wolves – I don’t trust the Lakers on the road whatsoever and the -8 spread seems a tad generous. I’ll be toying with betting Wolves to cover (not an official wager) but who on that Lakers squad is stopping Karl-Anthony Towns? Really, the only player would be Anthony Edwards since he can play a bit of hero ball. To his credit, he got out of the way last game when KAT went berserk so we may not want to chase this game. It is a very interesting spot though and I could see them going under the radar. D’Angelo Russell should be able to abuse Westbrook on the perimeter as well. 

Bucks at Kings – The main matchup I’d be interested in would be Giannis Antetokounmpo against De’Aaron Fox. We just saw the Bucks get carved up on the perimeter by Donovan Mitchell and *checks notes*…Mike Conley, so Fox has a pretty good spot. Jrue Holiday has not been quite the defender we’ve seen and they also aren’t running him into the ground on the ball every minute, either. Giannis getting that vulnerable interior is super enticing, but I do prefer Jokic in that range. It needs to be pointed out that this game sports a 240.5 total at open, and both teams are in the top 10 in pace. 

Teams To Monitor 

Suns – They played last night and while the starters had the minutes trimmed at the end, we could see someone sit. They have zero incentive to push anyone with a 7.5 game lead for the one seed in the West. I’d be more surprised if they roll into this one with a full roster. JaVale McGee could be the chalk du jour if someone like Deandre Ayton sat but this is speculation. 

Thunder – If Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sits (currently questionable and OKC wants to tank), I’m out on the Spurs starters because this game should be a cakewalk. OKC would offer some value like Tre Mann, Aaron Wiggins, and others if SGA sits. 

Raptors – It’s the last game on the slate which complicates matters but if Fred VanVleet sat and Scottie Barnes ran point again, count me among the interested. The same could be said for Gary Trent and Pascal Siakam, but Barnes would be my priority. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/16

We’ve got a giant slate ahead of us tonight with 24 teams in action and there is one game with serious playoff implications that could be the best spot of the night. I know one of my primary targets at the top of the grid will come from that, but we have studs all over in dynamite spots. Let’s talk about all of it in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/16 to see what we love tonight to find green screens! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Hawks at Hornets 

Hawks – There are two things that stick out like a sore thumb for this game. The first is these teams are the ninth and 10th seed in the East right now, separated by a half-game in the standings. The second is Trae Young dropped 76 DK in the last game and somehow his salary didn’t move a single dollar on DK. Young has turned it on with 93 raw points in his past two games and John Collins has already been ruled out for this game. Young sits at 1.48 FPPM without him this season and has a 36.5% usage rate against the team that ranks third in pace and 23rd in defensive rating. Atlanta is 27th themselves and this game will surely check in with a massive total. While Bogdan Bogdanovic and Clint Capela will draw some attention, I’ll once again turn to Onyeka Okongwu. We have a talented, if inexperienced, big man who has been logging 18-22 minutes lately. Capela’s minutes have been down and it’s a little harder to justify his expense. It’s not out of the realm (and is somewhat likely) to see Capela get run off the floor in this spot. If Danilo Gallinari is out once again, that frontcourt is thin and Okongwu has yet to break the $4,000 barrier while possessing 1.01 FPPM across 547 minutes without Collins. He’s averaging seven paint touches per game and Charlotte is bottom three in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint. That also helps Young, who sits sixth in drives to the hoop per game. 

Hornets – Typically, we’d be starting with LaMelo Ball and I won’t say he’s an awful play, but I’m not sure how many more games I want to play Ball and watch him play 30 minutes while Terry Rozier flirts with 40. Now that they are the same salary and have similar upside/downside risks, perhaps it’s better to just take the shot at Rozier. The FPPM is a distinct advantage for Ball at 1.33 to 1.06 but an extra 7-8 minutes for Rozier closes that gap. The Hawks are also 0.3% away from leading the league in 3-point field goal percentage allowed so Rozier could have a bombs away game where he hits five or more triples in addition to everything else. You can also feel comfortable acting the wings of Atlanta here with Miles Bridges, and it’s a tough call between him and Rozier. I do feel like I’ll want two studs tonight so the mid-range may go a little by the wayside, but I’m interested in a run-back from the Hornets. Bridges is going to draw some soft defensive opposition of Gallo or worse and has 1.05 FPPM. The spread opened at three points and dropped to two quickly so this game should be a run-and-gun style game. 

Mavericks at Nets 

Mavericks – The battle between Luka Doncic and Kevin Durant is going to be a lot of fun and both superstars are a little lower in salary than they have been lately. Doncic avoided an injury scare last game so that partially explains the mediocre results and he’s not going to take just 16 shots very often. I’d want to be 100% sure he’s good to go but he did play 39 minutes and the injury happened in the first quarter so the concern is not overwhelming. He’s not going against a scary defense either with the Nets 22nd in defensive rating. In the past month, Doncic has been playing better than at any point of the year with 1.56 FPPM and a 39.1% usage rate. Past Doncic, it gets a little harder to love anyone. Both Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie are not cheap and Dorian Finney-Smith has too much downside for this slate in my eyes. As it stands, I’d be very interested in Luka but the health of him and the Mavericks could change this slate immensely. 

Nets – The more interesting side of this game is the Nets side. Kyrie Irving was a real-life version of the last solo Godzilla movie when Godzilla turns nuclear and levels parts of Boston. Since this game is in Brooklyn, he won’t be active tonight and the Nets had the luxury of limiting Durant to 30 minutes last night. He will be the main focus of the Nets and has massive upside, but Brooklyn could carry immense value plays. If Seth Curry and Cam Thomas remain out, Brooklyn is down to a seven-man rotation that includes KD, Andre Drummond, Bruce Brown, Goran Dragic, James Johnson, Patty Mills, and Nic Claxton. Dragic will certainly draw another start and even though he was quiet last night, it’s hard to shine when a teammate is scoring 60 points. He only played 20 minutes last night so I’m happy going right back to the well and the center combo of Drummond and Speedy Claxton are very appealing. Dallas is just 17th in rebounding in the paint and there is lob potential with Claxton while for Drummond, the only defensive bodies are Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber. I expect the game to turn a little smaller so Claxton may be my choice, but we need to see who’s all active for Brooklyn. They will be of strong interest and Durant’s assist prop will be one I have my eyes on as well. 

Nuggets at Wizards 

Nuggets – Nikola Jokic is under $12,000 on a full slate and I’m not totally sure why. I grant you, the last three games have been average for him for fantasy but the Nuggets played six games in eight days and he finished off in a tough matchup against Joel Embiid. He will see no such matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are 26th in points allowed in the paint. Jokic is second in the league in points scored in the post-up game and the Wizards are dead last in points allowed, on top of ranking 24th in defensive rating this season. The likes of Daniel Gafford and Kristaps Porzingis aren’t going to stop him and the Young/Joker duo is a target of mine if we get the proper value players. This is a little bit of a chase but Bones Hyland is starting to see things click for him. He’s producing 1.19 FPPM over the past month and he’s no different than a lot of rookies where we see a bump in performance after the break. Denver needs every once of scoring from the bench and he may not see 31 minutes a night, but he could creep into 25 at this point and against Washington, that’s interesting. The 23.1% usage rate in that time frame says this may not be just hot shooting either with him and DeMarcus Cousins being vital bench players. 

Wizards – This is extremely scary to say but I don’t mind Porzingis. Now, do I play him on this crowded of a slate, probably not in SE formats. He’s more of an MME guy but paring him and Jokic could wind up paying off. Scoring 120 DK points isn’t out of the realm (it would be close to the ceiling, hence MME only for me) but since arriving in Washington, KP has commanded a 31.2% usage rate and 1.44 FPPM across 101 minutes. If he gets to 30-32 minutes for the first time, he could rack up a double-double and approach 50 DK but things have to break right for him. I can’t pay the salary for Kyle Kuzma at this juncture because when they have shared the court, Kuzma has gone down to 1.03 FPPM. This is mostly a spot where you play Jokic/KP or Jokic solo, pending any news during the day. 

Honorable Mention 

Lakers at Wolves – I don’t trust the Lakers on the road whatsoever and the -8 spread seems a tad generous. I’ll be toying with betting Wolves to cover (not an official wager) but who on that Lakers squad is stopping Karl-Anthony Towns? Really, the only player would be Anthony Edwards since he can play a bit of hero ball. To his credit, he got out of the way last game when KAT went berserk so we may not want to chase this game. It is a very interesting spot though and I could see them going under the radar. D’Angelo Russell should be able to abuse Westbrook on the perimeter as well. 

Bucks at Kings – The main matchup I’d be interested in would be Giannis Antetokounmpo against De’Aaron Fox. We just saw the Bucks get carved up on the perimeter by Donovan Mitchell and *checks notes*…Mike Conley, so Fox has a pretty good spot. Jrue Holiday has not been quite the defender we’ve seen and they also aren’t running him into the ground on the ball every minute, either. Giannis getting that vulnerable interior is super enticing, but I do prefer Jokic in that range. It needs to be pointed out that this game sports a 240.5 total at open, and both teams are in the top 10 in pace. 

Teams To Monitor 

Suns – They played last night and while the starters had the minutes trimmed at the end, we could see someone sit. They have zero incentive to push anyone with a 7.5 game lead for the one seed in the West. I’d be more surprised if they roll into this one with a full roster. JaVale McGee could be the chalk du jour if someone like Deandre Ayton sat but this is speculation. 

Thunder – If Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sits (currently questionable and OKC wants to tank), I’m out on the Spurs starters because this game should be a cakewalk. OKC would offer some value like Tre Mann, Aaron Wiggins, and others if SGA sits. 

Raptors – It’s the last game on the slate which complicates matters but if Fred VanVleet sat and Scottie Barnes ran point again, count me among the interested. The same could be said for Gary Trent and Pascal Siakam, but Barnes would be my priority. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/16

We’ve got a giant slate ahead of us tonight with 24 teams in action and there is one game with serious playoff implications that could be the best spot of the night. I know one of my primary targets at the top of the grid will come from that, but we have studs all over in dynamite spots. Let’s talk about all of it in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/16 to see what we love tonight to find green screens! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Hawks at Hornets 

Hawks – There are two things that stick out like a sore thumb for this game. The first is these teams are the ninth and 10th seed in the East right now, separated by a half-game in the standings. The second is Trae Young dropped 76 DK in the last game and somehow his salary didn’t move a single dollar on DK. Young has turned it on with 93 raw points in his past two games and John Collins has already been ruled out for this game. Young sits at 1.48 FPPM without him this season and has a 36.5% usage rate against the team that ranks third in pace and 23rd in defensive rating. Atlanta is 27th themselves and this game will surely check in with a massive total. While Bogdan Bogdanovic and Clint Capela will draw some attention, I’ll once again turn to Onyeka Okongwu. We have a talented, if inexperienced, big man who has been logging 18-22 minutes lately. Capela’s minutes have been down and it’s a little harder to justify his expense. It’s not out of the realm (and is somewhat likely) to see Capela get run off the floor in this spot. If Danilo Gallinari is out once again, that frontcourt is thin and Okongwu has yet to break the $4,000 barrier while possessing 1.01 FPPM across 547 minutes without Collins. He’s averaging seven paint touches per game and Charlotte is bottom three in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint. That also helps Young, who sits sixth in drives to the hoop per game. 

Hornets – Typically, we’d be starting with LaMelo Ball and I won’t say he’s an awful play, but I’m not sure how many more games I want to play Ball and watch him play 30 minutes while Terry Rozier flirts with 40. Now that they are the same salary and have similar upside/downside risks, perhaps it’s better to just take the shot at Rozier. The FPPM is a distinct advantage for Ball at 1.33 to 1.06 but an extra 7-8 minutes for Rozier closes that gap. The Hawks are also 0.3% away from leading the league in 3-point field goal percentage allowed so Rozier could have a bombs away game where he hits five or more triples in addition to everything else. You can also feel comfortable acting the wings of Atlanta here with Miles Bridges, and it’s a tough call between him and Rozier. I do feel like I’ll want two studs tonight so the mid-range may go a little by the wayside, but I’m interested in a run-back from the Hornets. Bridges is going to draw some soft defensive opposition of Gallo or worse and has 1.05 FPPM. The spread opened at three points and dropped to two quickly so this game should be a run-and-gun style game. 

Mavericks at Nets 

Mavericks – The battle between Luka Doncic and Kevin Durant is going to be a lot of fun and both superstars are a little lower in salary than they have been lately. Doncic avoided an injury scare last game so that partially explains the mediocre results and he’s not going to take just 16 shots very often. I’d want to be 100% sure he’s good to go but he did play 39 minutes and the injury happened in the first quarter so the concern is not overwhelming. He’s not going against a scary defense either with the Nets 22nd in defensive rating. In the past month, Doncic has been playing better than at any point of the year with 1.56 FPPM and a 39.1% usage rate. Past Doncic, it gets a little harder to love anyone. Both Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie are not cheap and Dorian Finney-Smith has too much downside for this slate in my eyes. As it stands, I’d be very interested in Luka but the health of him and the Mavericks could change this slate immensely. 

Nets – The more interesting side of this game is the Nets side. Kyrie Irving was a real-life version of the last solo Godzilla movie when Godzilla turns nuclear and levels parts of Boston. Since this game is in Brooklyn, he won’t be active tonight and the Nets had the luxury of limiting Durant to 30 minutes last night. He will be the main focus of the Nets and has massive upside, but Brooklyn could carry immense value plays. If Seth Curry and Cam Thomas remain out, Brooklyn is down to a seven-man rotation that includes KD, Andre Drummond, Bruce Brown, Goran Dragic, James Johnson, Patty Mills, and Nic Claxton. Dragic will certainly draw another start and even though he was quiet last night, it’s hard to shine when a teammate is scoring 60 points. He only played 20 minutes last night so I’m happy going right back to the well and the center combo of Drummond and Speedy Claxton are very appealing. Dallas is just 17th in rebounding in the paint and there is lob potential with Claxton while for Drummond, the only defensive bodies are Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber. I expect the game to turn a little smaller so Claxton may be my choice, but we need to see who’s all active for Brooklyn. They will be of strong interest and Durant’s assist prop will be one I have my eyes on as well. 

Nuggets at Wizards 

Nuggets – Nikola Jokic is under $12,000 on a full slate and I’m not totally sure why. I grant you, the last three games have been average for him for fantasy but the Nuggets played six games in eight days and he finished off in a tough matchup against Joel Embiid. He will see no such matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are 26th in points allowed in the paint. Jokic is second in the league in points scored in the post-up game and the Wizards are dead last in points allowed, on top of ranking 24th in defensive rating this season. The likes of Daniel Gafford and Kristaps Porzingis aren’t going to stop him and the Young/Joker duo is a target of mine if we get the proper value players. This is a little bit of a chase but Bones Hyland is starting to see things click for him. He’s producing 1.19 FPPM over the past month and he’s no different than a lot of rookies where we see a bump in performance after the break. Denver needs every once of scoring from the bench and he may not see 31 minutes a night, but he could creep into 25 at this point and against Washington, that’s interesting. The 23.1% usage rate in that time frame says this may not be just hot shooting either with him and DeMarcus Cousins being vital bench players. 

Wizards – This is extremely scary to say but I don’t mind Porzingis. Now, do I play him on this crowded of a slate, probably not in SE formats. He’s more of an MME guy but paring him and Jokic could wind up paying off. Scoring 120 DK points isn’t out of the realm (it would be close to the ceiling, hence MME only for me) but since arriving in Washington, KP has commanded a 31.2% usage rate and 1.44 FPPM across 101 minutes. If he gets to 30-32 minutes for the first time, he could rack up a double-double and approach 50 DK but things have to break right for him. I can’t pay the salary for Kyle Kuzma at this juncture because when they have shared the court, Kuzma has gone down to 1.03 FPPM. This is mostly a spot where you play Jokic/KP or Jokic solo, pending any news during the day. 

Honorable Mention 

Lakers at Wolves – I don’t trust the Lakers on the road whatsoever and the -8 spread seems a tad generous. I’ll be toying with betting Wolves to cover (not an official wager) but who on that Lakers squad is stopping Karl-Anthony Towns? Really, the only player would be Anthony Edwards since he can play a bit of hero ball. To his credit, he got out of the way last game when KAT went berserk so we may not want to chase this game. It is a very interesting spot though and I could see them going under the radar. D’Angelo Russell should be able to abuse Westbrook on the perimeter as well. 

Bucks at Kings – The main matchup I’d be interested in would be Giannis Antetokounmpo against De’Aaron Fox. We just saw the Bucks get carved up on the perimeter by Donovan Mitchell and *checks notes*…Mike Conley, so Fox has a pretty good spot. Jrue Holiday has not been quite the defender we’ve seen and they also aren’t running him into the ground on the ball every minute, either. Giannis getting that vulnerable interior is super enticing, but I do prefer Jokic in that range. It needs to be pointed out that this game sports a 240.5 total at open, and both teams are in the top 10 in pace. 

Teams To Monitor 

Suns – They played last night and while the starters had the minutes trimmed at the end, we could see someone sit. They have zero incentive to push anyone with a 7.5 game lead for the one seed in the West. I’d be more surprised if they roll into this one with a full roster. JaVale McGee could be the chalk du jour if someone like Deandre Ayton sat but this is speculation. 

Thunder – If Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sits (currently questionable and OKC wants to tank), I’m out on the Spurs starters because this game should be a cakewalk. OKC would offer some value like Tre Mann, Aaron Wiggins, and others if SGA sits. 

Raptors – It’s the last game on the slate which complicates matters but if Fred VanVleet sat and Scottie Barnes ran point again, count me among the interested. The same could be said for Gary Trent and Pascal Siakam, but Barnes would be my priority. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/13

It’s a busy Sunday in the NBA with two separate slates, a three-game in the afternoon and a five-game in the evening (lock is at 6:00 p.m. for that one). The early slate will be a little more of a notes-based approach with quickly hitting on each team and then the full five-game in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/13!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Early Slate 

Knicks/Nets – The game against the Knicks is obviously in New York so Kyrie Irving is out and Kevin Durant will run the show. He shouldn’t be under $11,000 in this spot and when Kyrie and James Harden have been off the court, KD has 1.58 FPPM and a 36% usage rate. The secondary group of Seth Curry and Bruce Brown stand out in a big way with so much usage to soak up and the GPP wildcard is Andre Drummond. With the Knicks having some size, he may actually get some run and his upside in 28 minutes is way above $5,500. 

I’ll be tempted by Julius Randle as a run-back as he’s been playing better and the ceiling is there but the floor is absolutely there as well. He and RJ Barrett will continue to log 40 minutes or so and can be played in any environment at this point. I’m not a big fan of Alec Burks but he’s still affordable and sort of their point guard through some spurts. 

Clippers/Pistons – Ivica Zubac is one of the more volatile options on the slate but without Isaiah Stewart, there is a major weakness in the interior for the Pistons. I’d rather take the shot on Drummond and focus more on Marcus Morris, Terrance Mann, or Luke Kennard. With the Clippers, there’s not always one player to rely on and Reggie Jackson is expensive so they can be tough to pin down. 

Cade Cunningham fits into the “ball-handlers against the Clippers” mold and his game is improving every time out. I’m interested if I can fit him with some of the other priorities and Marvin Bagley is interesting as well. In two of the past three games, he’s hit 38 DK points or more and played at least 34 minutes. Of course, in the one game he flopped, he had foul issues and was major chalk but the upside is there in a big way. 

Mavericks/Celtics – I have KD as a priority over Luka Doncic since I view them as close and KD is much cheaper, but it’s Luka and we know he’s in play. If Dorian Finney-Smith and Jalen Brunson remain out, Spencer Dinwiddie and Josh Green are in play. Green logged major minutes last game but it didn’t hurt that Maxi Kleber played about three minutes with four fouls. We’d need clarity with their situation before picking a path. 

For Boston, Jayson Tatum continues to be on a tear with five straight games of 31 points scored or more. I still like KD more, but Tatum could be a zig in GPP depending on ownership. Robert Williams is down under $7,000 and gets a vulnerable Dallas interior. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble, he has a 45 DK point upside or more. There is also going to be a game where Jaylen Brown outscores Tatum sooner or later and he won’t shoot 8-22 every game. 

Main Slate 

Pacers at Hawks 

Pacers – This is what I wrote yesterday and their situation will likely not change much. The only change is Atlanta is 27th in defensive rating so the matchup is far better. I really like running Haliburton again and paring him with a Hawk on the way back. 

Pacers – Malcolm Brogdon has already been ruled out for this one which means the Win Daily favorite of Tyrese Haliburton is in play even at $9,000. When Brogdon has been off the floor for Indiana, Haliburton has racked up a 37.4% assist rate, 21.2% usage rate, and 1.22 FPPM. With the Spurs playing at such a fast pace (fourth), this is a pretty strong spot for him. Dejounte Murray does wait on the other side but Haliburton will play so many minutes and do so much to fill the sheet, I’m still perfectly fine with his salary. My interest past that is somewhat limited as I refuse to pay $7,300 for Buddy Hield and his 0.99 FPPM. The frontcourt is very mix-and-match with Jalen Smith, Oshae Brissett, and Isaiah Jackson, and they’re all capped around 26-30 minutes. Let’s keep an eye on who they have active and we can adjust through the day. 

Hawks – Trae Young is one of the more appealing options at the top of the grid if you’re looking for someone who can exploit the team that is 26th in defensive rating. On top of that, the Pacers are weaker defending the paint and Young is sixth in drives to the hoop on the season to go along with his 34.4% usage rate and 1.39 FPPM. I also like Clint Capela since he’s under $6,000 and even though his minutes are a touch scary, he’s going to be a tower against the undersized Indiana frontcourt. Even in 25 minutes, he can double-double and flirt with 40 DK like he did last game. We’ll see what the status of John Collins is for anyone else during the day. 

Rockets at Pelicans

Rockets – It appears that the Rockets will be fully healthy so the Alperen Sengun train has left the station tonight. Instead, Christian Wood is on the fringe of GPP consideration but I’d be more willing to shoot with Jalen Green provided Dennis Schroder is back. Why the Rockets cut Green’s minutes for Schroeder 24 is beyond me but Green has really been playing well. We might be at the juncture where the Rockets are just a hair too pricey with everyone healthy, but it’s not a sure thing they’re all active quite yet. 

Pelicans – CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram are both out and even though the salary came up fast, Devonte’ Graham still played 33 minutes and took 10 attempts from a 3-point distance. Against the Rockets, that’s still viable at $6,100. On the lower rung, Trey Murphy, Jaxson Hayes, and Naji Marshall are all in play to some extent. They played 28 minutes and while I’m a little hesitant to chase the Murphy nuclear game, the minutes can’t be ignored. The model is going to be key in deciphering that but we likely want at least two Pelicans tonight to fit in some of the more expensive options. Speaking of expensive, Jonas Valanciunas absolutely killed us last time and inherits another GOAT spot. I will say that the offense wasn’t geared toward him in the last game in addition to him not shooting well. The range of outcomes is very wide for him tonight. 

Teams To Monitor 

76ers – They appear healthy and maybe James Harden shows up to this game since it’s not a big one. 

Grizzlies – Dillon Brooks is questionable and that is a big deal. Ja Morant sees his FPPM drop by about 0.20 when Brooks is out there and he can cap Morant if Brooks plays enough minutes in this game. For the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in play but we know he has to score nearly 30 points to pay off this salary. 

Lakers – The salary is up there but LeBron James is on a heater and that’s a scary fade, even against the Phoenix Suns. Even though he didn’t love me back in the last game, the James/Devin Booker pairing could be a really fun late hammer on this small slate. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/13

It’s a busy Sunday in the NBA with two separate slates, a three-game in the afternoon and a five-game in the evening (lock is at 6:00 p.m. for that one). The early slate will be a little more of a notes-based approach with quickly hitting on each team and then the full five-game in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/13!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Early Slate 

Knicks/Nets – The game against the Knicks is obviously in New York so Kyrie Irving is out and Kevin Durant will run the show. He shouldn’t be under $11,000 in this spot and when Kyrie and James Harden have been off the court, KD has 1.58 FPPM and a 36% usage rate. The secondary group of Seth Curry and Bruce Brown stand out in a big way with so much usage to soak up and the GPP wildcard is Andre Drummond. With the Knicks having some size, he may actually get some run and his upside in 28 minutes is way above $5,500. 

I’ll be tempted by Julius Randle as a run-back as he’s been playing better and the ceiling is there but the floor is absolutely there as well. He and RJ Barrett will continue to log 40 minutes or so and can be played in any environment at this point. I’m not a big fan of Alec Burks but he’s still affordable and sort of their point guard through some spurts. 

Clippers/Pistons – Ivica Zubac is one of the more volatile options on the slate but without Isaiah Stewart, there is a major weakness in the interior for the Pistons. I’d rather take the shot on Drummond and focus more on Marcus Morris, Terrance Mann, or Luke Kennard. With the Clippers, there’s not always one player to rely on and Reggie Jackson is expensive so they can be tough to pin down. 

Cade Cunningham fits into the “ball-handlers against the Clippers” mold and his game is improving every time out. I’m interested if I can fit him with some of the other priorities and Marvin Bagley is interesting as well. In two of the past three games, he’s hit 38 DK points or more and played at least 34 minutes. Of course, in the one game he flopped, he had foul issues and was major chalk but the upside is there in a big way. 

Mavericks/Celtics – I have KD as a priority over Luka Doncic since I view them as close and KD is much cheaper, but it’s Luka and we know he’s in play. If Dorian Finney-Smith and Jalen Brunson remain out, Spencer Dinwiddie and Josh Green are in play. Green logged major minutes last game but it didn’t hurt that Maxi Kleber played about three minutes with four fouls. We’d need clarity with their situation before picking a path. 

For Boston, Jayson Tatum continues to be on a tear with five straight games of 31 points scored or more. I still like KD more, but Tatum could be a zig in GPP depending on ownership. Robert Williams is down under $7,000 and gets a vulnerable Dallas interior. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble, he has a 45 DK point upside or more. There is also going to be a game where Jaylen Brown outscores Tatum sooner or later and he won’t shoot 8-22 every game. 

Main Slate 

Pacers at Hawks 

Pacers – This is what I wrote yesterday and their situation will likely not change much. The only change is Atlanta is 27th in defensive rating so the matchup is far better. I really like running Haliburton again and paring him with a Hawk on the way back. 

Pacers – Malcolm Brogdon has already been ruled out for this one which means the Win Daily favorite of Tyrese Haliburton is in play even at $9,000. When Brogdon has been off the floor for Indiana, Haliburton has racked up a 37.4% assist rate, 21.2% usage rate, and 1.22 FPPM. With the Spurs playing at such a fast pace (fourth), this is a pretty strong spot for him. Dejounte Murray does wait on the other side but Haliburton will play so many minutes and do so much to fill the sheet, I’m still perfectly fine with his salary. My interest past that is somewhat limited as I refuse to pay $7,300 for Buddy Hield and his 0.99 FPPM. The frontcourt is very mix-and-match with Jalen Smith, Oshae Brissett, and Isaiah Jackson, and they’re all capped around 26-30 minutes. Let’s keep an eye on who they have active and we can adjust through the day. 

Hawks – Trae Young is one of the more appealing options at the top of the grid if you’re looking for someone who can exploit the team that is 26th in defensive rating. On top of that, the Pacers are weaker defending the paint and Young is sixth in drives to the hoop on the season to go along with his 34.4% usage rate and 1.39 FPPM. I also like Clint Capela since he’s under $6,000 and even though his minutes are a touch scary, he’s going to be a tower against the undersized Indiana frontcourt. Even in 25 minutes, he can double-double and flirt with 40 DK like he did last game. We’ll see what the status of John Collins is for anyone else during the day. 

Rockets at Pelicans

Rockets – It appears that the Rockets will be fully healthy so the Alperen Sengun train has left the station tonight. Instead, Christian Wood is on the fringe of GPP consideration but I’d be more willing to shoot with Jalen Green provided Dennis Schroder is back. Why the Rockets cut Green’s minutes for Schroeder 24 is beyond me but Green has really been playing well. We might be at the juncture where the Rockets are just a hair too pricey with everyone healthy, but it’s not a sure thing they’re all active quite yet. 

Pelicans – CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram are both out and even though the salary came up fast, Devonte’ Graham still played 33 minutes and took 10 attempts from a 3-point distance. Against the Rockets, that’s still viable at $6,100. On the lower rung, Trey Murphy, Jaxson Hayes, and Naji Marshall are all in play to some extent. They played 28 minutes and while I’m a little hesitant to chase the Murphy nuclear game, the minutes can’t be ignored. The model is going to be key in deciphering that but we likely want at least two Pelicans tonight to fit in some of the more expensive options. Speaking of expensive, Jonas Valanciunas absolutely killed us last time and inherits another GOAT spot. I will say that the offense wasn’t geared toward him in the last game in addition to him not shooting well. The range of outcomes is very wide for him tonight. 

Teams To Monitor 

76ers – They appear healthy and maybe James Harden shows up to this game since it’s not a big one. 

Grizzlies – Dillon Brooks is questionable and that is a big deal. Ja Morant sees his FPPM drop by about 0.20 when Brooks is out there and he can cap Morant if Brooks plays enough minutes in this game. For the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in play but we know he has to score nearly 30 points to pay off this salary. 

Lakers – The salary is up there but LeBron James is on a heater and that’s a scary fade, even against the Phoenix Suns. Even though he didn’t love me back in the last game, the James/Devin Booker pairing could be a really fun late hammer on this small slate. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/13

It’s a busy Sunday in the NBA with two separate slates, a three-game in the afternoon and a five-game in the evening (lock is at 6:00 p.m. for that one). The early slate will be a little more of a notes-based approach with quickly hitting on each team and then the full five-game in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/13!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Early Slate 

Knicks/Nets – The game against the Knicks is obviously in New York so Kyrie Irving is out and Kevin Durant will run the show. He shouldn’t be under $11,000 in this spot and when Kyrie and James Harden have been off the court, KD has 1.58 FPPM and a 36% usage rate. The secondary group of Seth Curry and Bruce Brown stand out in a big way with so much usage to soak up and the GPP wildcard is Andre Drummond. With the Knicks having some size, he may actually get some run and his upside in 28 minutes is way above $5,500. 

I’ll be tempted by Julius Randle as a run-back as he’s been playing better and the ceiling is there but the floor is absolutely there as well. He and RJ Barrett will continue to log 40 minutes or so and can be played in any environment at this point. I’m not a big fan of Alec Burks but he’s still affordable and sort of their point guard through some spurts. 

Clippers/Pistons – Ivica Zubac is one of the more volatile options on the slate but without Isaiah Stewart, there is a major weakness in the interior for the Pistons. I’d rather take the shot on Drummond and focus more on Marcus Morris, Terrance Mann, or Luke Kennard. With the Clippers, there’s not always one player to rely on and Reggie Jackson is expensive so they can be tough to pin down. 

Cade Cunningham fits into the “ball-handlers against the Clippers” mold and his game is improving every time out. I’m interested if I can fit him with some of the other priorities and Marvin Bagley is interesting as well. In two of the past three games, he’s hit 38 DK points or more and played at least 34 minutes. Of course, in the one game he flopped, he had foul issues and was major chalk but the upside is there in a big way. 

Mavericks/Celtics – I have KD as a priority over Luka Doncic since I view them as close and KD is much cheaper, but it’s Luka and we know he’s in play. If Dorian Finney-Smith and Jalen Brunson remain out, Spencer Dinwiddie and Josh Green are in play. Green logged major minutes last game but it didn’t hurt that Maxi Kleber played about three minutes with four fouls. We’d need clarity with their situation before picking a path. 

For Boston, Jayson Tatum continues to be on a tear with five straight games of 31 points scored or more. I still like KD more, but Tatum could be a zig in GPP depending on ownership. Robert Williams is down under $7,000 and gets a vulnerable Dallas interior. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble, he has a 45 DK point upside or more. There is also going to be a game where Jaylen Brown outscores Tatum sooner or later and he won’t shoot 8-22 every game. 

Main Slate 

Pacers at Hawks 

Pacers – This is what I wrote yesterday and their situation will likely not change much. The only change is Atlanta is 27th in defensive rating so the matchup is far better. I really like running Haliburton again and paring him with a Hawk on the way back. 

Pacers – Malcolm Brogdon has already been ruled out for this one which means the Win Daily favorite of Tyrese Haliburton is in play even at $9,000. When Brogdon has been off the floor for Indiana, Haliburton has racked up a 37.4% assist rate, 21.2% usage rate, and 1.22 FPPM. With the Spurs playing at such a fast pace (fourth), this is a pretty strong spot for him. Dejounte Murray does wait on the other side but Haliburton will play so many minutes and do so much to fill the sheet, I’m still perfectly fine with his salary. My interest past that is somewhat limited as I refuse to pay $7,300 for Buddy Hield and his 0.99 FPPM. The frontcourt is very mix-and-match with Jalen Smith, Oshae Brissett, and Isaiah Jackson, and they’re all capped around 26-30 minutes. Let’s keep an eye on who they have active and we can adjust through the day. 

Hawks – Trae Young is one of the more appealing options at the top of the grid if you’re looking for someone who can exploit the team that is 26th in defensive rating. On top of that, the Pacers are weaker defending the paint and Young is sixth in drives to the hoop on the season to go along with his 34.4% usage rate and 1.39 FPPM. I also like Clint Capela since he’s under $6,000 and even though his minutes are a touch scary, he’s going to be a tower against the undersized Indiana frontcourt. Even in 25 minutes, he can double-double and flirt with 40 DK like he did last game. We’ll see what the status of John Collins is for anyone else during the day. 

Rockets at Pelicans

Rockets – It appears that the Rockets will be fully healthy so the Alperen Sengun train has left the station tonight. Instead, Christian Wood is on the fringe of GPP consideration but I’d be more willing to shoot with Jalen Green provided Dennis Schroder is back. Why the Rockets cut Green’s minutes for Schroeder 24 is beyond me but Green has really been playing well. We might be at the juncture where the Rockets are just a hair too pricey with everyone healthy, but it’s not a sure thing they’re all active quite yet. 

Pelicans – CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram are both out and even though the salary came up fast, Devonte’ Graham still played 33 minutes and took 10 attempts from a 3-point distance. Against the Rockets, that’s still viable at $6,100. On the lower rung, Trey Murphy, Jaxson Hayes, and Naji Marshall are all in play to some extent. They played 28 minutes and while I’m a little hesitant to chase the Murphy nuclear game, the minutes can’t be ignored. The model is going to be key in deciphering that but we likely want at least two Pelicans tonight to fit in some of the more expensive options. Speaking of expensive, Jonas Valanciunas absolutely killed us last time and inherits another GOAT spot. I will say that the offense wasn’t geared toward him in the last game in addition to him not shooting well. The range of outcomes is very wide for him tonight. 

Teams To Monitor 

76ers – They appear healthy and maybe James Harden shows up to this game since it’s not a big one. 

Grizzlies – Dillon Brooks is questionable and that is a big deal. Ja Morant sees his FPPM drop by about 0.20 when Brooks is out there and he can cap Morant if Brooks plays enough minutes in this game. For the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in play but we know he has to score nearly 30 points to pay off this salary. 

Lakers – The salary is up there but LeBron James is on a heater and that’s a scary fade, even against the Phoenix Suns. Even though he didn’t love me back in the last game, the James/Devin Booker pairing could be a really fun late hammer on this small slate. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/12

We have a late lock tonight at 8:00 p.m. tonight with seven games in front of us and one game stands out pretty clearly above the rest. There are other good game environments with totals that rival the Golden State Warriors hosting the Milwaukee Bucks but this game is going to be popular in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/12!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Bucks at Warriors 

Bucks – You certainly won’t be able to full-stack this game with the salaries involved but this begins with Giannis Antetokounmpo, as it does for most slates. The Warriors have had a tough go against big men with Draymond Green and Kevon Looney is not going to be able to do a lot with Giannis tonight. He’s up to 1.73 fantasy points per minute on a 34.9% usage rate and Golden State is down to 14th in points allowed in the paint. Giannis is tied for 10th in post-ups per game and that’s not a good mix for the Warriors. The pace should be intense as the Bucks are sixth and even though Golden State is down to 15th, they can run with any team in the league. The other trio of Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and Bobby Portis all feel slightly expensive but Portis would be my next favorite. An athletic big man that can shoot from deep (seriously, 41.7% this season) isn’t going to be an easy cover and Middleton should face Andrew Wiggins. While Wiggins isn’t a defender you totally run away from, Portis has the easier path on the offensive end to be sure. 

Warriors – The floor is absolutely there for Steph Curry and we talked on Thursday about his career-worst season as far as shooting the ball goes, but the ceiling is more than there at $10,000. The Bucks allow the most 3-point attempts per game in the league and that’s not exactly what you want to see when Curry is on the other side. With Klay Thompson still getting back to his normal self, Curry needs to continue to carry the team and has a 30.5% usage rate and 1.31 FPPM on the season. The salary is a big shift for him and it’s worth the gamble, especially if we get the value to stack Giannis/Steph together. Jordan Poole would be my preferred secondary target as Klay at $7,000 on DK is just not appealing. Poole appears to have gotten his groove back in his role of bench scorer with at least 34 DK and 20 real points in each of his last five games. I want at least two players from this game and Giannis would be my priority followed by Steph if we can or Poole if the value isn’t there. 

Pacers at Spurs 

Pacers – Malcolm Brogdon has already been ruled out for this one which means the Win Daily favorite of Tyrese Haliburton is in play even at $9,000. When Brogdon has been off the floor for Indiana, Haliburton has racked up a 37.4% assist rate, 21.2% usage rate, and 1.22 FPPM. With the Spurs playing at such a fast pace (fourth), this is a pretty strong spot for him. Dejounte Murray does wait on the other side but Haliburton will play so many minutes and do so much to fill the sheet, I’m still perfectly fine with his salary. My interest past that is somewhat limited as I refuse to pay $7,300 for Buddy Hield and his 0.99 FPPM. The frontcourt is very mix-and-match with Jalen Smith, Oshae Brissett, and Isaiah Jackson, and they’re all capped around 26-30 minutes. Let’s keep an eye on who they have active and we can adjust through the day. 

Spurs – We don’t need to say much more about Murray at this point and if you want to play him, by all means. The fact that Brogdon is sitting out with a concussion is a bit of a bump to Murray. We know he thrives in high total games and what’s going to be of interest is who’s active for the Spurs. They played last night but if Jakob Poeltl is active, he’s on the table. Indiana is in the top 12 in points and rebounds allowed in the paint but that was on the back of having Myles Turner and Sabonis. Lonnie Walker is always an option in GPP and tonight is no different as the $4,300 salary doesn’t reflect the upside. He must be hitting shots to do much of anything but he’s a primary scoring option off the bench. 

Teams To Monitor 

Bulls – They are still sort of a mess with Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Ayo Dosunmu, and Alex Caruso listed as questionable. Who is available for the Bulls has an effect on my interest in Darius Garland and Evan Mobley for the Cavs as well. Mobley has been playing center without Jarrett Allen and he’s got some serious upside at $7,500 against a Bulls team that is in the bottom half of the league in points and rebounds allowed in the paint. 

The Wizards, Jazz, Raptors, and Heat are all also on the second leg of a back-to-back. I expect this slate to change quite a bit from 10:55 p.m on Friday until lock on Saturday so be sure to stay tuned. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/12

We have a late lock tonight at 8:00 p.m. tonight with seven games in front of us and one game stands out pretty clearly above the rest. There are other good game environments with totals that rival the Golden State Warriors hosting the Milwaukee Bucks but this game is going to be popular in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/12!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Bucks at Warriors 

Bucks – You certainly won’t be able to full-stack this game with the salaries involved but this begins with Giannis Antetokounmpo, as it does for most slates. The Warriors have had a tough go against big men with Draymond Green and Kevon Looney is not going to be able to do a lot with Giannis tonight. He’s up to 1.73 fantasy points per minute on a 34.9% usage rate and Golden State is down to 14th in points allowed in the paint. Giannis is tied for 10th in post-ups per game and that’s not a good mix for the Warriors. The pace should be intense as the Bucks are sixth and even though Golden State is down to 15th, they can run with any team in the league. The other trio of Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and Bobby Portis all feel slightly expensive but Portis would be my next favorite. An athletic big man that can shoot from deep (seriously, 41.7% this season) isn’t going to be an easy cover and Middleton should face Andrew Wiggins. While Wiggins isn’t a defender you totally run away from, Portis has the easier path on the offensive end to be sure. 

Warriors – The floor is absolutely there for Steph Curry and we talked on Thursday about his career-worst season as far as shooting the ball goes, but the ceiling is more than there at $10,000. The Bucks allow the most 3-point attempts per game in the league and that’s not exactly what you want to see when Curry is on the other side. With Klay Thompson still getting back to his normal self, Curry needs to continue to carry the team and has a 30.5% usage rate and 1.31 FPPM on the season. The salary is a big shift for him and it’s worth the gamble, especially if we get the value to stack Giannis/Steph together. Jordan Poole would be my preferred secondary target as Klay at $7,000 on DK is just not appealing. Poole appears to have gotten his groove back in his role of bench scorer with at least 34 DK and 20 real points in each of his last five games. I want at least two players from this game and Giannis would be my priority followed by Steph if we can or Poole if the value isn’t there. 

Pacers at Spurs 

Pacers – Malcolm Brogdon has already been ruled out for this one which means the Win Daily favorite of Tyrese Haliburton is in play even at $9,000. When Brogdon has been off the floor for Indiana, Haliburton has racked up a 37.4% assist rate, 21.2% usage rate, and 1.22 FPPM. With the Spurs playing at such a fast pace (fourth), this is a pretty strong spot for him. Dejounte Murray does wait on the other side but Haliburton will play so many minutes and do so much to fill the sheet, I’m still perfectly fine with his salary. My interest past that is somewhat limited as I refuse to pay $7,300 for Buddy Hield and his 0.99 FPPM. The frontcourt is very mix-and-match with Jalen Smith, Oshae Brissett, and Isaiah Jackson, and they’re all capped around 26-30 minutes. Let’s keep an eye on who they have active and we can adjust through the day. 

Spurs – We don’t need to say much more about Murray at this point and if you want to play him, by all means. The fact that Brogdon is sitting out with a concussion is a bit of a bump to Murray. We know he thrives in high total games and what’s going to be of interest is who’s active for the Spurs. They played last night but if Jakob Poeltl is active, he’s on the table. Indiana is in the top 12 in points and rebounds allowed in the paint but that was on the back of having Myles Turner and Sabonis. Lonnie Walker is always an option in GPP and tonight is no different as the $4,300 salary doesn’t reflect the upside. He must be hitting shots to do much of anything but he’s a primary scoring option off the bench. 

Teams To Monitor 

Bulls – They are still sort of a mess with Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Ayo Dosunmu, and Alex Caruso listed as questionable. Who is available for the Bulls has an effect on my interest in Darius Garland and Evan Mobley for the Cavs as well. Mobley has been playing center without Jarrett Allen and he’s got some serious upside at $7,500 against a Bulls team that is in the bottom half of the league in points and rebounds allowed in the paint. 

The Wizards, Jazz, Raptors, and Heat are all also on the second leg of a back-to-back. I expect this slate to change quite a bit from 10:55 p.m on Friday until lock on Saturday so be sure to stay tuned. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life