NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/24
We’re back to a much more manageable slate with just five games although the injury/rest candidates could be a big number once again. There is one game with some massive playoff implications tonight that demands our attention between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors. After that, there are some affordable stud players at the top of the pricing grid in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/23!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Cavaliers vs Raptors
Cavaliers – The total for this game won’t be eye-popping but the weight of this game will call for both teams to go all-out to win. Cleveland is exactly one game ahead of the Raptors for the sixth seed in the East and neither team particularly wants to face Brooklyn in the play-in game. I will have a tough time getting to Darius Garland at $9,700 because he’s not scoring 29 points and dishing 17 assists very often but he will be on the floor for 40+ minutes. He has stepped up his production over the past month with 1.24 FPPM and a 31.3% usage rate but it’s still a lofty salary. Instead, Evan Mobley can exploit the interior as he dropped 53 DK on these Raptors in the last meeting (Allen played just 10 minutes). Mobley faces a defense that is 23rd in points allowed in the paint and playing center without Allen has led him to some massive games. It would be surprising if he doesn’t push for 35 minutes here as well. Lauri Markkanen would be next on my list as he rarely leaves the court and his 0.91 FPPM across the past four weeks is very playable at the salary. There’s going to be a game where Caris LeVert smashes his $5,800 salary but that is very hard to predict and the minutes for Kevin Love haven’t been stable lately either. It’s mostly Mobley or Markkanen in my eyes.
Raptors – The targets for the Raptors are news-dependent tonight. Gary Trent and OG Anunoby are both questionable but Trent was able to practice Wednesday, so he’s likely going to be back. OG is super cheap for what he’s capable of if he’s back to 32+ minutes, but we’re not sure on that. He missed 15 games so there could be a slight limit. He’s racked up 0.89 FPPM and always has blocks/steals upside and would only need around 30 DK to pay off. Fred VanVleet has been battling a knee issue but when he’s on the court, he doesn’t come off of it and is very affordable for a player with a usage rate over 24% and 1.09 FPPM. Attacking the perimeter of the Cleveland defense is more appealing than anything else, so I’d prefer FVV to Pascal Siakam. While Mobley has seen a slight dip in play defensively this late in his rookie year, he’s still a strong defender. This game is massive and the Raptors main cogs don’t leave the court for a normal game.
Wizards vs Bucks
Wizards – Kyle Kuzma remains out for Washington so Kristaps Porzingis will take center stage again coming off a game where he scored over 57 DK points and played 32 minutes. He’s been incredible with Kuzma off the floor in the past four weeks, albeit in a 105-minute sample size. KP has 1.57 FPPM and a usage rate of 32.5% so even though the matchup against the Bucks is tougher than the Rockets, Porzingis has upside against a team that is fifth in pace. We can also continue to utilize Deni Avdija and Corey Kispert for value plays as Avdija will play close to 30 minutes and he does a little of everything with an 18.3% usage rate without Kuzma. The FPPM is only 0.83 but the pace of the game is appealing enough. Kispert is shooting 34.6% from beyond the arc and he’ll get his chances as the Bucks are in the bottom three in 3-point frequency allowed. I’d rather roll the dice there than with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope who is over $5,000.
Bucks – With Khris Middleton still not being ready for game action, Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to be a popular play and it’s hard to argue that. He generated roughly 2.00 FPPM in the last game on just 12 field goal attempts, which is very impressive. Washington isn’t going to mount much resistance as they are 24th in defensive rating. One of the premier salary savers could turn into Brook Lopez, who entered the starting lineup in the last game and played 24 minutes. While he’s not the prototypical center, the Wizards have struggled against big men all year and they are bottom five in points allowed in the paint. They are also in the bottom 10 in field goal percentage allowed from beyond the arc and Lopez takes some threes. Jrue Holiday and Pat Connaughton are in that next tier in my eyes and I have no issues with playing two Bucks tonight.
Honorable Mention
Bulls/Pelicans
Teams To Monitor
Note – Phoenix, Indiana, and Memphis all played last night so this slate could hinge around them as far as value players go.
Nuggets – I can’t quite remember the last time Nikola Jokic was not the most expensive player on the slate and I’ll be very interested in taking advantage of that against a Suns team that played last night.
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