NBA dfs

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/31

We’re back to just five games today for the slate but there is not a shortage of playoff-caliber teams that need wins. There is a clear top-flight game that we want exposure to but there are other very strong spots that need attention in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/31!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Bucks vs Nets 

Bucks – There is only one game that is over 229 points for the total to start the night and this game is at 238. If Giannis Antetokounmpo plays 38 minutes again tonight, there’s a very strong chance he could lead the slate in scoring after going for 75 DK in the last game and the matchup on the inside is far easier against the Nets, who rank 14th in points allowed in the paint. The difference between Andre Drummond and Joel Embiid is enormous and the Bucks are only one game behind the one seed. The Nets are in the bottom 12 in defensive rating and it’s not hard to see Giannis having a field day in this one. I’m still in on Brook Lopez as well because he sunk under $4,000 and he has enough range to make Drummond come out from under the hoop, which is his comfort zone. The minutes have been there for BroLo and he took 14 shots in the last game. I don’t expect that many again but you’re not paying a big salary for him and he could help fit two studs, potentially. The duo of Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday would not be priority spends for me (I’d prefer Jrue) but it should be noted that if they treat this game as a playoff game, these two will play close to 40 minutes. Even with Giannis, they’re over 1.10 FPPM on the season and that could work even if Giannis eclipses 70 DK. 

Nets – Normally, I try to ground everything in this article in stats and metrics but I can’t help but feel like we get Kevin Durant on an absolute mission tonight. He’s averaged over 30 points in the two games he’s played them this year but it’s crunch time and you can’t tell me it doesn’t still burn him the Nets lost in the playoffs last year. I don’t think it’s likely that we can play KD and Giannis together so I’d still give the edge to Giannis but it’s still possible for the Nets to host the 7/8 game. Kyrie Irving has been super quiet for three straight games for fantasy and shooting 17-51 over those contests is driving that slump. That can’t last and the Bucks bleed 3-point attempts allowed so he’s on the table, but Kyrie is more of an MME option for me because driving to the hoop can be a little difficult among Giannis and Lopez. I’m not that interested in going with any other Net with KD and Kyrie soaking up so much usage on the team (well over 30% each). 

Cavaliers vs Hawks 

Cavaliers – Cleveland is down to the seventh seed while Atlanta is fighting to at least host the 9/10 game and potentially jump into the 7/8, so this is a mother massive game. Cleveland gets to face a bad defense in the Hawks and both teams played last night, so the defense may not be all that intense tonight. I keep feeling like Darius Garland is too expensive but given the situation they are in, maybe he’s at least playable. In the past month when Evan Mobley has been off the court (along with others), Garland is at 1.28 FPPM and a 32.4% usage rate. Seeing as how Trae Young is still a below-average defender, Garland has a path to 60 DK even if it’s a touch more narrow than you’d like for a player this high on the salary grid. Kevin Love may have bit us last night, but he’s far more affordable tonight and only played 26 minutes last night. With Love, you need that shot to work because he’s not going to rack up a ton of stats past that but the matchup and loss of any rim protection demand Love play near 30 minutes again. I’m going to be interested to see how the field reacts to Caris LeVert as well, who had a monster game. He scored 46 DK points on 32 real points and 11-19 for the floor, so there’s not exactly a lot that can be replicated to that line as far as shooting. However, in the past month in the sample from Garland, LeVert s at 0.96 FPPM and that’s with a 46.5% true shooting rate. His talent level is far above that. 

Hawks – We touched on this yesterday that the Cavs have no rim protection and Luka Doncic made nine shots within 10 feet and Cleveland allowed 50 points in the paint, nine points higher than the season average. Enter Trae Young, who is averaging 17.3 drives per game and scores 10 points from that play. It’s hard not to be interested when he’s under the $11,000 mark and Young is still carrying extra work on the offensive end with no John Collins. You could also very much talk me into Clint Capela who only had to play 20 minutes last night and he can take advantage of the weakness on the interior. Before last night, Capela played 31 minutes in consecutive games and cleared 40 DK points. Cleveland has nobody to stop him and I am very interested in the mid-range. 

Teams To Monitor 

Clippers – Coach Ty Lue admitted that Paul George playing 30 minutes wasn’t the plan, but it happened, and getting the toothpaste back in the tube is going to be tough. At $9,400, I’m very intrigued by George but the caveat is he did shoot 6-9 from deep. Either way, walking into 20 shots and PG13 has a 34.2% usage rate and 1.30 FPPM on the season. 

Jazz – I’m tempted by Donovan Mitchell after they suffered one of the worst losses of the season and there are not much better get-right spots than the Lakers. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/30

Wednesday greets us with another monster slate that will likely be very concentrated on a handful of games as the tanking Thunder, Rockets, Pacers, and Trail Blazers are all on the slate. They will be popular targets but don’t forget the playoff teams tonight when building lineups in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/30!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

The Tanks 

Thunder 

Most of the field is likely to flock to teams that have strong value plays to fit in the studs they want and that makes plenty of sense. All of these games carry very high totals to start out the night before and I’m betting the two teams that lead interest are the Thunder and Trail Blazers. People will feel good about those teams going bonkers on the last slate and there are still some good plays. 

Let’s start with the Thunder and assume that Tre Mann is going to play tonight instead of getting scratched 30 minutes before the game this time around. He’d be looking at 15-20 field goal attempts against a team that is in the bottom five in defensive rating this season and the best approximation of FPPM and usage rate for Mann in this situation is 1.04 and 30.2%. It’s a 208-minute sample size so it’s not the most minutes but it’s also not insignificant either. 

If we take Mann off the court, Theo Maledon would be nearly must-play (he’s a strong play regardless) at just $5,400. He played 40 minutes last game and in his 172-minute sample, the FPPM is 1.24 and the usage rate is over 28%. If they are down to eight men again, my main target in addition to Maledon would be Aaron Wiggins who also played 40 minutes and would be expected to carry the offense as well. Aleksej Pokusevski is getting up there for my taste and Isaiah Roby would be hard-pressed to flirt with 40 DK points again, though I’d rather play him than Poku at the salary. Keep in mind, Roby is not very likely to shoot 11-13 from the field including 4-5 from deep again. 

Key Run-Back Options – Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela 

Trail Blazers 

They are running a joke of a lineup right now and I’m not banking on Brandon Williams or Drew Eubanks to pay off their salaries over $7,000. This isn’t the Thunder on the other side and while the Pelicans aren’t world-beaters, they are way better than OKC and are fighting for the play-in game. Instead of trying to attack the interior with an expensive Eubanks, I’d much rather drop down a bit in salary and focus on the tier of CJ Elleby, Keon Johnson, and then Greg Brown or Ben McLemore. We still need clarity on if Brown is playing but we’re still looking at nine players in this rotation. Elleby and Johnson likely have the safest minutes but this team is committed to the tank so there are really no sure things at all. McLemore needs to be lights out from beyond the arc and New Orleans is in the bottom 10 in FG% allowed but if his floor is sub-10 DK points. I really want to see what the model does with this team before deciding, but I’m not that interested in paying the premium on this side. 

Key Run-Back Options – Brandon Ingram (played 26 minutes, 30 is reasonable here), Jonas Valanciunas, C.J. McCollum 

Rockets 

We already know that Christian Wood, Dennis Schroeder, and Eric Gordon are out but what complicates matters is the fact Alperen Sengun is questionable. He missed the fourth quarter in the last game so I would be very surprised if he plays in this game but it has a total of 233 points and a spread under three. This could be the most popular game of the night and we’re looking at Kevin Porter, Jalen Green, Jae’Sean Tate, K.J. Martin, and Josh Christopher to carry the load. Christopher especially could be the punt of the night at just $3,900 and he played 30 minutes in the last game and went for 42 DK points. That may not be a huge surprise because when all the Rockets who are missing are off the floor, Christopher leads the team with a 1.10 FPPM and his usage rate is 25.6%m followed by Martin at 0.96. These guys will be premier punts on a slate that has plenty of studs to chase. If Sengun is out, it’s all systems go for the cheaper players. 

Key Run-Back Options – Davion Mitchell (expensive), Trey Lyles, Damian Jones, Donte DiVincenzo, Chimezie Metu

The Studs 

Nikola Jokic – I mean…where else would we start other than the man who’s going to win MVP again this year? Not only did Giannis possibly jump Joel Embiid last night in the voting (I said what I said), Jokic is one of the primary targets on this slate. Denver is in the softer part of their schedule and Jokic has to put this team on his back every single night. He’s playing 35 minutes some nights and the Indy frontcourt is not built to deal with his size or skill level. His points+rebounds prop will be of interest to me again tonight and Jokic is worth every cent. We touched on this in the last slate but the Pacers have a defensive rating of over 120 points since the trade deadline and that would be the worst mark in the NBA by five points during the regular season. We could get some Indy value, but I would put the other three teams ahead of them. I especially think Houston could be the best fit for the evening. 

Luka Doncic – The matchup with Cleveland is more than enticing and if Luka had been playing like he is since February, the MVP race would have a much different tone. He only played 30 minutes flat last night as the Mavs wiped the court with the Lakers and Dallas is fighting to maintain home-court advantage. What is really going to challenge the Cavaliers to stop Doncic is the lack of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, who is listed as out. Doncic drives at the second-highest rate in the league and scores over 12 points per game. With their rim protection taking a massive hit, Luka has immense upside again tonight. 

Dejounte Muray – It’s another monster game for the Spurs since the Lakers lost last night because right now, the Lakers are out and the Spurs are in. This is a surprising turn of events and the pace in this game should be wild as both teams are in the top six in pace and the total is 231.5. Murray has been even better than usual since the trade deadline (where the Spurs were sellers) with a 29% usage rate and 1.48 FPPM. He’ll need all the tools working to deal with the Grizzlies who just seem to never lose without Ja Morant and we can expect 35+ minutes once again. I’m not crazy about the rebounding upside here and would find the extra for Luka, but it’s not hard to see Murray lead the slate. 

Honorable Mention 

Heat/Celtics – This game on the surface is massive as these teams are slugging it out with the 76ers and Bucks for first in the East. However, Boston’s defense has chewed up everyone in their path since the year started and the total is under 220 points. You could argue it’s the most “important” game on the slate, but I do think we have better fantasy spots than this matchup. I will mention Bam Adebayo wince Robert Williams is out for the Celtics because the paint is suddenly way more vulnerable for Boston. 

Wolves/Raptors – I don’t have Spicy P going for 40 points again so I really like OG Anunoby because his salary is not high enough for a player that’s on the court for 40 minutes. He only took 12 shots in the last game and still put up 31.5 DK because he’s going to do a little bit of everything. His defense will be needed for Anthony Edwards on the wing and if you’re in the mid-range, OG could be your man. The Raptors are going to continue to play just monster minutes and the Wolves are allowing the third-highest frequency of 3-point attempts in the league. Gary Trent is in a solid bounce-back spot as well, and the same could be said for Karl-Anthony Towns. If Edwards is dealing with OG, KAT has to be the main guy in this matchup. 

Suns/Warriors – If Steph Curry was active, I’d be way more excited for this game and it’s fair to point out the spread is just 6.5 points. Still, Phoenix is in a great spot and while you can play Devin Booker any day of the week, it’s the combo of Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton that would have my attention a bit more. Golden State has had some issues with big men from time to time and when you have the Point God feeding you the ball, Ayton can do some damage in the pick-and-roll even though the metrics say Golden State has handled that play type well this year. I don’t exactly see why they’re letting CP3 play 36 minutes at this point since everything is locked up and he’s had some seriously bad injury luck, but an $8,000 Paul has plenty of upside. He’s flirting with 11 dimes per game and when it’s crunch time, he gets to his spot among the best in the league. With the salaries of Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson, I’m not likely to force a run-back from the Warriors. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/30

Wednesday greets us with another monster slate that will likely be very concentrated on a handful of games as the tanking Thunder, Rockets, Pacers, and Trail Blazers are all on the slate. They will be popular targets but don’t forget the playoff teams tonight when building lineups in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/30!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

The Tanks 

Thunder 

Most of the field is likely to flock to teams that have strong value plays to fit in the studs they want and that makes plenty of sense. All of these games carry very high totals to start out the night before and I’m betting the two teams that lead interest are the Thunder and Trail Blazers. People will feel good about those teams going bonkers on the last slate and there are still some good plays. 

Let’s start with the Thunder and assume that Tre Mann is going to play tonight instead of getting scratched 30 minutes before the game this time around. He’d be looking at 15-20 field goal attempts against a team that is in the bottom five in defensive rating this season and the best approximation of FPPM and usage rate for Mann in this situation is 1.04 and 30.2%. It’s a 208-minute sample size so it’s not the most minutes but it’s also not insignificant either. 

If we take Mann off the court, Theo Maledon would be nearly must-play (he’s a strong play regardless) at just $5,400. He played 40 minutes last game and in his 172-minute sample, the FPPM is 1.24 and the usage rate is over 28%. If they are down to eight men again, my main target in addition to Maledon would be Aaron Wiggins who also played 40 minutes and would be expected to carry the offense as well. Aleksej Pokusevski is getting up there for my taste and Isaiah Roby would be hard-pressed to flirt with 40 DK points again, though I’d rather play him than Poku at the salary. Keep in mind, Roby is not very likely to shoot 11-13 from the field including 4-5 from deep again. 

Key Run-Back Options – Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela 

Trail Blazers 

They are running a joke of a lineup right now and I’m not banking on Brandon Williams or Drew Eubanks to pay off their salaries over $7,000. This isn’t the Thunder on the other side and while the Pelicans aren’t world-beaters, they are way better than OKC and are fighting for the play-in game. Instead of trying to attack the interior with an expensive Eubanks, I’d much rather drop down a bit in salary and focus on the tier of CJ Elleby, Keon Johnson, and then Greg Brown or Ben McLemore. We still need clarity on if Brown is playing but we’re still looking at nine players in this rotation. Elleby and Johnson likely have the safest minutes but this team is committed to the tank so there are really no sure things at all. McLemore needs to be lights out from beyond the arc and New Orleans is in the bottom 10 in FG% allowed but if his floor is sub-10 DK points. I really want to see what the model does with this team before deciding, but I’m not that interested in paying the premium on this side. 

Key Run-Back Options – Brandon Ingram (played 26 minutes, 30 is reasonable here), Jonas Valanciunas, C.J. McCollum 

Rockets 

We already know that Christian Wood, Dennis Schroeder, and Eric Gordon are out but what complicates matters is the fact Alperen Sengun is questionable. He missed the fourth quarter in the last game so I would be very surprised if he plays in this game but it has a total of 233 points and a spread under three. This could be the most popular game of the night and we’re looking at Kevin Porter, Jalen Green, Jae’Sean Tate, K.J. Martin, and Josh Christopher to carry the load. Christopher especially could be the punt of the night at just $3,900 and he played 30 minutes in the last game and went for 42 DK points. That may not be a huge surprise because when all the Rockets who are missing are off the floor, Christopher leads the team with a 1.10 FPPM and his usage rate is 25.6%m followed by Martin at 0.96. These guys will be premier punts on a slate that has plenty of studs to chase. If Sengun is out, it’s all systems go for the cheaper players. 

Key Run-Back Options – Davion Mitchell (expensive), Trey Lyles, Damian Jones, Donte DiVincenzo, Chimezie Metu

The Studs 

Nikola Jokic – I mean…where else would we start other than the man who’s going to win MVP again this year? Not only did Giannis possibly jump Joel Embiid last night in the voting (I said what I said), Jokic is one of the primary targets on this slate. Denver is in the softer part of their schedule and Jokic has to put this team on his back every single night. He’s playing 35 minutes some nights and the Indy frontcourt is not built to deal with his size or skill level. His points+rebounds prop will be of interest to me again tonight and Jokic is worth every cent. We touched on this in the last slate but the Pacers have a defensive rating of over 120 points since the trade deadline and that would be the worst mark in the NBA by five points during the regular season. We could get some Indy value, but I would put the other three teams ahead of them. I especially think Houston could be the best fit for the evening. 

Luka Doncic – The matchup with Cleveland is more than enticing and if Luka had been playing like he is since February, the MVP race would have a much different tone. He only played 30 minutes flat last night as the Mavs wiped the court with the Lakers and Dallas is fighting to maintain home-court advantage. What is really going to challenge the Cavaliers to stop Doncic is the lack of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, who is listed as out. Doncic drives at the second-highest rate in the league and scores over 12 points per game. With their rim protection taking a massive hit, Luka has immense upside again tonight. 

Dejounte Muray – It’s another monster game for the Spurs since the Lakers lost last night because right now, the Lakers are out and the Spurs are in. This is a surprising turn of events and the pace in this game should be wild as both teams are in the top six in pace and the total is 231.5. Murray has been even better than usual since the trade deadline (where the Spurs were sellers) with a 29% usage rate and 1.48 FPPM. He’ll need all the tools working to deal with the Grizzlies who just seem to never lose without Ja Morant and we can expect 35+ minutes once again. I’m not crazy about the rebounding upside here and would find the extra for Luka, but it’s not hard to see Murray lead the slate. 

Honorable Mention 

Heat/Celtics – This game on the surface is massive as these teams are slugging it out with the 76ers and Bucks for first in the East. However, Boston’s defense has chewed up everyone in their path since the year started and the total is under 220 points. You could argue it’s the most “important” game on the slate, but I do think we have better fantasy spots than this matchup. I will mention Bam Adebayo wince Robert Williams is out for the Celtics because the paint is suddenly way more vulnerable for Boston. 

Wolves/Raptors – I don’t have Spicy P going for 40 points again so I really like OG Anunoby because his salary is not high enough for a player that’s on the court for 40 minutes. He only took 12 shots in the last game and still put up 31.5 DK because he’s going to do a little bit of everything. His defense will be needed for Anthony Edwards on the wing and if you’re in the mid-range, OG could be your man. The Raptors are going to continue to play just monster minutes and the Wolves are allowing the third-highest frequency of 3-point attempts in the league. Gary Trent is in a solid bounce-back spot as well, and the same could be said for Karl-Anthony Towns. If Edwards is dealing with OG, KAT has to be the main guy in this matchup. 

Suns/Warriors – If Steph Curry was active, I’d be way more excited for this game and it’s fair to point out the spread is just 6.5 points. Still, Phoenix is in a great spot and while you can play Devin Booker any day of the week, it’s the combo of Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton that would have my attention a bit more. Golden State has had some issues with big men from time to time and when you have the Point God feeding you the ball, Ayton can do some damage in the pick-and-roll even though the metrics say Golden State has handled that play type well this year. I don’t exactly see why they’re letting CP3 play 36 minutes at this point since everything is locked up and he’s had some seriously bad injury luck, but an $8,000 Paul has plenty of upside. He’s flirting with 11 dimes per game and when it’s crunch time, he gets to his spot among the best in the league. With the salaries of Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson, I’m not likely to force a run-back from the Warriors. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/30

Wednesday greets us with another monster slate that will likely be very concentrated on a handful of games as the tanking Thunder, Rockets, Pacers, and Trail Blazers are all on the slate. They will be popular targets but don’t forget the playoff teams tonight when building lineups in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/30!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

The Tanks 

Thunder 

Most of the field is likely to flock to teams that have strong value plays to fit in the studs they want and that makes plenty of sense. All of these games carry very high totals to start out the night before and I’m betting the two teams that lead interest are the Thunder and Trail Blazers. People will feel good about those teams going bonkers on the last slate and there are still some good plays. 

Let’s start with the Thunder and assume that Tre Mann is going to play tonight instead of getting scratched 30 minutes before the game this time around. He’d be looking at 15-20 field goal attempts against a team that is in the bottom five in defensive rating this season and the best approximation of FPPM and usage rate for Mann in this situation is 1.04 and 30.2%. It’s a 208-minute sample size so it’s not the most minutes but it’s also not insignificant either. 

If we take Mann off the court, Theo Maledon would be nearly must-play (he’s a strong play regardless) at just $5,400. He played 40 minutes last game and in his 172-minute sample, the FPPM is 1.24 and the usage rate is over 28%. If they are down to eight men again, my main target in addition to Maledon would be Aaron Wiggins who also played 40 minutes and would be expected to carry the offense as well. Aleksej Pokusevski is getting up there for my taste and Isaiah Roby would be hard-pressed to flirt with 40 DK points again, though I’d rather play him than Poku at the salary. Keep in mind, Roby is not very likely to shoot 11-13 from the field including 4-5 from deep again. 

Key Run-Back Options – Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela 

Trail Blazers 

They are running a joke of a lineup right now and I’m not banking on Brandon Williams or Drew Eubanks to pay off their salaries over $7,000. This isn’t the Thunder on the other side and while the Pelicans aren’t world-beaters, they are way better than OKC and are fighting for the play-in game. Instead of trying to attack the interior with an expensive Eubanks, I’d much rather drop down a bit in salary and focus on the tier of CJ Elleby, Keon Johnson, and then Greg Brown or Ben McLemore. We still need clarity on if Brown is playing but we’re still looking at nine players in this rotation. Elleby and Johnson likely have the safest minutes but this team is committed to the tank so there are really no sure things at all. McLemore needs to be lights out from beyond the arc and New Orleans is in the bottom 10 in FG% allowed but if his floor is sub-10 DK points. I really want to see what the model does with this team before deciding, but I’m not that interested in paying the premium on this side. 

Key Run-Back Options – Brandon Ingram (played 26 minutes, 30 is reasonable here), Jonas Valanciunas, C.J. McCollum 

Rockets 

We already know that Christian Wood, Dennis Schroeder, and Eric Gordon are out but what complicates matters is the fact Alperen Sengun is questionable. He missed the fourth quarter in the last game so I would be very surprised if he plays in this game but it has a total of 233 points and a spread under three. This could be the most popular game of the night and we’re looking at Kevin Porter, Jalen Green, Jae’Sean Tate, K.J. Martin, and Josh Christopher to carry the load. Christopher especially could be the punt of the night at just $3,900 and he played 30 minutes in the last game and went for 42 DK points. That may not be a huge surprise because when all the Rockets who are missing are off the floor, Christopher leads the team with a 1.10 FPPM and his usage rate is 25.6%m followed by Martin at 0.96. These guys will be premier punts on a slate that has plenty of studs to chase. If Sengun is out, it’s all systems go for the cheaper players. 

Key Run-Back Options – Davion Mitchell (expensive), Trey Lyles, Damian Jones, Donte DiVincenzo, Chimezie Metu

The Studs 

Nikola Jokic – I mean…where else would we start other than the man who’s going to win MVP again this year? Not only did Giannis possibly jump Joel Embiid last night in the voting (I said what I said), Jokic is one of the primary targets on this slate. Denver is in the softer part of their schedule and Jokic has to put this team on his back every single night. He’s playing 35 minutes some nights and the Indy frontcourt is not built to deal with his size or skill level. His points+rebounds prop will be of interest to me again tonight and Jokic is worth every cent. We touched on this in the last slate but the Pacers have a defensive rating of over 120 points since the trade deadline and that would be the worst mark in the NBA by five points during the regular season. We could get some Indy value, but I would put the other three teams ahead of them. I especially think Houston could be the best fit for the evening. 

Luka Doncic – The matchup with Cleveland is more than enticing and if Luka had been playing like he is since February, the MVP race would have a much different tone. He only played 30 minutes flat last night as the Mavs wiped the court with the Lakers and Dallas is fighting to maintain home-court advantage. What is really going to challenge the Cavaliers to stop Doncic is the lack of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, who is listed as out. Doncic drives at the second-highest rate in the league and scores over 12 points per game. With their rim protection taking a massive hit, Luka has immense upside again tonight. 

Dejounte Muray – It’s another monster game for the Spurs since the Lakers lost last night because right now, the Lakers are out and the Spurs are in. This is a surprising turn of events and the pace in this game should be wild as both teams are in the top six in pace and the total is 231.5. Murray has been even better than usual since the trade deadline (where the Spurs were sellers) with a 29% usage rate and 1.48 FPPM. He’ll need all the tools working to deal with the Grizzlies who just seem to never lose without Ja Morant and we can expect 35+ minutes once again. I’m not crazy about the rebounding upside here and would find the extra for Luka, but it’s not hard to see Murray lead the slate. 

Honorable Mention 

Heat/Celtics – This game on the surface is massive as these teams are slugging it out with the 76ers and Bucks for first in the East. However, Boston’s defense has chewed up everyone in their path since the year started and the total is under 220 points. You could argue it’s the most “important” game on the slate, but I do think we have better fantasy spots than this matchup. I will mention Bam Adebayo wince Robert Williams is out for the Celtics because the paint is suddenly way more vulnerable for Boston. 

Wolves/Raptors – I don’t have Spicy P going for 40 points again so I really like OG Anunoby because his salary is not high enough for a player that’s on the court for 40 minutes. He only took 12 shots in the last game and still put up 31.5 DK because he’s going to do a little bit of everything. His defense will be needed for Anthony Edwards on the wing and if you’re in the mid-range, OG could be your man. The Raptors are going to continue to play just monster minutes and the Wolves are allowing the third-highest frequency of 3-point attempts in the league. Gary Trent is in a solid bounce-back spot as well, and the same could be said for Karl-Anthony Towns. If Edwards is dealing with OG, KAT has to be the main guy in this matchup. 

Suns/Warriors – If Steph Curry was active, I’d be way more excited for this game and it’s fair to point out the spread is just 6.5 points. Still, Phoenix is in a great spot and while you can play Devin Booker any day of the week, it’s the combo of Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton that would have my attention a bit more. Golden State has had some issues with big men from time to time and when you have the Point God feeding you the ball, Ayton can do some damage in the pick-and-roll even though the metrics say Golden State has handled that play type well this year. I don’t exactly see why they’re letting CP3 play 36 minutes at this point since everything is locked up and he’s had some seriously bad injury luck, but an $8,000 Paul has plenty of upside. He’s flirting with 11 dimes per game and when it’s crunch time, he gets to his spot among the best in the league. With the salaries of Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson, I’m not likely to force a run-back from the Warriors. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/27

We are back for a six-game slate tonight and it would be ideal if we don’t have a speaker fire like last night, wreaking havoc with the slate for about 45 minutes. Most importantly, no fan got hurt and we do have some teams on a back-to-back situation. There are some fun games on the schedule for the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/26 so let’s start digging in to see what we like!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Hornets at Nets 

Hornets – The prices are all reasonable for Charlotte as they take on a Nets squad that played last night who just so happen to lead them by 1.5 games for the eighth seed in the East. The Hornets may not be in any danger of falling out of the play-in scenario but that doesn’t mean that can’t try to get one slot higher and that should mean minutes for LaMelo Ball. He has played as many as 39 (lo and behold, he’s capable) and his ceiling is huge when he’s under $9,000. Just understand that the range of outcomes is large with him and the rest of the Hornets. They’re mostly a young squad and even though Ball has the usage rate lead at 27.6%, the consistency hasn’t always been there. Terry Rozier and Miles Bridges are options as well but Bridges could potentially see KD across the floor on some possessions and that doesn’t sound like much fun. Rozier has been running a little cold lately in his categories outside of points but that’s helped drive the salary down to much more comfortable levels. It’s easier for 40 points to pay off now with 1.05 FPPM and he has among the better matchups if Kyrie decides to defend Ball. Rozier would face the likes of Seth Curry and Goran Dragic, giving him the edge. Lastly, Mason Plumlee could be of slight interest since he’ll likely match whatever minutes Andre Drummond plays, but Drummond is the better rebounder and Plumlee has a very low floor. 

Nets – I don’t believe the Nets sit anyone tonight because Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving have missed plenty of games for various reasons this season. Additionally, neither played over 31 minutes last night and the starters altogether played fewer than normal. That was a luxury that pays off tonight as this is the only game with a total of over 230 points (237.5) and both teams are in the top 12 in pace. It’s tough to pick between KD and Kyrie since they both are over 31% for the usage rate and at least 1.41 FPPM. If you want a narrative, I could see Kyrie going off in his first home game of the season and being generally on coast-mode last night. Andre Drummond is still very interesting since he only had to play 18 minutes last night and we all know the score with big men against this Charlotte frontcourt. They get mashed in the paint in rebounding and points allowed and that’s about all Drummond does, and he has a 47.5 DK point game recently against this team. The potential is certainly there and he’s not expensive at all. It’s harder now to grab secondary players with KD and Kyrie active for every game. 

Lakers at Pelicans 

Lakers – All of a sudden, this game is close to a must-win for both teams. The Lakers are 1.5 games ahead of the Spurs at ninth and the Pelicans are just one game ahead in 10th. The loser real has some heat on them about potentially missing the play-in altogether and it will be difficult to not want to play LeBron James in this scenario. I mean, say what you like about the Lakers being trash (they are) and the hand LeBron had in it (a very large one) but he’s leading the league with 30 points per game. That’s insanity. He’s hit over 60 DK points in each of his last three games and he’s taken at least 26 shots in those three games. I can’t possibly believe that won’t happen again tonight and he’s not even the most expensive player on the board tonight. Give me close to 40 minutes of LeBron and get everyone else out of the way. I’m not really interested in playing anyone else because, for $11,200, I want LeBron to threaten for a triple-double and do everything. 

Pelicans – My focus could be very narrow on this side as well. If Brandon Ingram remains out, the duo of Jonas Valanciunas and CJ McCollum has my interest more than anyone else. JoVal gets a dynamite matchup in the paint as the Lakers are in the bottom seven in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint. JoVal is in the top 10 in paint touches, paint points, rebounds, and rebound chances this season and nobody is going to stop him on the interior. Since the last time Ingram took the floor, JoVal is averaging 1.46 FPPM and McCollum is at 1.26 with a 30.7% usage rate. We’ve attacked the perimeter of the Lakers all year and night doesn’t change that philosophy. This game has a three-point spread and the total is the second-highest of the night at 229. We need Ingram news but trying to play a Pelican tonight could be a high priority. I’m focused on the studs in what is basically a playoff game. 

Warriors at Wizards 

Warriors – It appears that Golden State will rest guys on Monday for the second leg of the back-to-back and play everyone tonight. If that remains the case, count me in on Jordan Poole again. I’ll be looking at his assist prop during the day as he’s racked up 25 over the past three games and without Steph Curry in the lineup, he’s averaged 26 points in those nine games. The usage rate is over 30% and the salary isn’t quite expensive enough for a matchup against a team that is bottom six in defensive rating this season. I’m honestly not sure what to make out of Klay Thompson after his explosion in the last game for 55 DK points. The plus side is he played 40 minutes, which is just incredible to see for him personally. That’s tough to totally ignore and he has 1.15 FPPM on the season without Curry. My issue is Klay scored 37 real points and still only scored that 55 DK. Is he going to score almost 40 points every game? With Thompson, any number is possible for him but I’d play Poole for the cheaper salary much more often than not. I’m a little hesitant to go much outside Poole here because Draymond Green hasn’t had the same impact on categories as we’re used to and Andrew Wiggins just doesn’t have the ceiling. Let’s see the starting lineup, as it changed last game. I’m interested in Kevon Looney but want to see if he starts before deciding just how interested. 

Wizards – Kyle Kuzma is still out of the Wizards and Kristaps Porzingis has picked up the slack. He’s been a monster with 1.55 FPPM without Kuzma in his limited time with the Wizards and if that stuck, KP is not that expensive because it’s coming with a 31.4% usage rate. He’s not likely to play more than 32 minutes so there is a path to failure, but throwing KP aside is not the move. In the last game, Tomas Satoransky entered the starting lineup and played 29 minutes with 22 DK points. He’s still a value if starting but that is not for sure yet. Deni Avdija went bonkers last game and his salary is still acceptable because starting or not, Avdija will play 30-ish minutes and has 0.87 FPPM on the season without Kuzma. I’m not forcing a Washington run-back but I would go either to the top or punt with Sato if using a Wizard.

Honorable Mention

Jazz/Mavericks – These teams are strong defensively but the game is for sole possession of the fourth seed in the West. If you’re not going with LeBron, Luka Doncic is the path to take and he’s been a monster since the trade deadline. Luka has averaged close to 31 points and the team got shaken up in a positive way for him. On the other side, the trio of Donovan Mitchell, Jordan Clarkson, and Rudy Gobert are all interesting. Mitchell and Gobert were both relatively disappointing in the last game but Bojan Bogdanovic remains out of the lineup. When that is the case, Mitchell is over 36.5% for the usage rate and Clarkson is at 0.99 FPPM. Gobert will face little resistance on the interior and could easily flirt with 50 DK points in this spot.

Teams To Monitor

Celtics – With Al Horford being ruled out, Robert Williams is a significant value at just $6,000 on DK. He needs to match KAT for most of his minutes and he has block upside as well as a potential double-double. Grant Williams should start and is a value play as well. He does only have 0.68 FPPM when Horford is off the court so this isn’t a plug-and-play situation, it’s more of last man in.

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/27

We are back for a six-game slate tonight and it would be ideal if we don’t have a speaker fire like last night, wreaking havoc with the slate for about 45 minutes. Most importantly, no fan got hurt and we do have some teams on a back-to-back situation. There are some fun games on the schedule for the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/26 so let’s start digging in to see what we like!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Hornets at Nets 

Hornets – The prices are all reasonable for Charlotte as they take on a Nets squad that played last night who just so happen to lead them by 1.5 games for the eighth seed in the East. The Hornets may not be in any danger of falling out of the play-in scenario but that doesn’t mean that can’t try to get one slot higher and that should mean minutes for LaMelo Ball. He has played as many as 39 (lo and behold, he’s capable) and his ceiling is huge when he’s under $9,000. Just understand that the range of outcomes is large with him and the rest of the Hornets. They’re mostly a young squad and even though Ball has the usage rate lead at 27.6%, the consistency hasn’t always been there. Terry Rozier and Miles Bridges are options as well but Bridges could potentially see KD across the floor on some possessions and that doesn’t sound like much fun. Rozier has been running a little cold lately in his categories outside of points but that’s helped drive the salary down to much more comfortable levels. It’s easier for 40 points to pay off now with 1.05 FPPM and he has among the better matchups if Kyrie decides to defend Ball. Rozier would face the likes of Seth Curry and Goran Dragic, giving him the edge. Lastly, Mason Plumlee could be of slight interest since he’ll likely match whatever minutes Andre Drummond plays, but Drummond is the better rebounder and Plumlee has a very low floor. 

Nets – I don’t believe the Nets sit anyone tonight because Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving have missed plenty of games for various reasons this season. Additionally, neither played over 31 minutes last night and the starters altogether played fewer than normal. That was a luxury that pays off tonight as this is the only game with a total of over 230 points (237.5) and both teams are in the top 12 in pace. It’s tough to pick between KD and Kyrie since they both are over 31% for the usage rate and at least 1.41 FPPM. If you want a narrative, I could see Kyrie going off in his first home game of the season and being generally on coast-mode last night. Andre Drummond is still very interesting since he only had to play 18 minutes last night and we all know the score with big men against this Charlotte frontcourt. They get mashed in the paint in rebounding and points allowed and that’s about all Drummond does, and he has a 47.5 DK point game recently against this team. The potential is certainly there and he’s not expensive at all. It’s harder now to grab secondary players with KD and Kyrie active for every game. 

Lakers at Pelicans 

Lakers – All of a sudden, this game is close to a must-win for both teams. The Lakers are 1.5 games ahead of the Spurs at ninth and the Pelicans are just one game ahead in 10th. The loser real has some heat on them about potentially missing the play-in altogether and it will be difficult to not want to play LeBron James in this scenario. I mean, say what you like about the Lakers being trash (they are) and the hand LeBron had in it (a very large one) but he’s leading the league with 30 points per game. That’s insanity. He’s hit over 60 DK points in each of his last three games and he’s taken at least 26 shots in those three games. I can’t possibly believe that won’t happen again tonight and he’s not even the most expensive player on the board tonight. Give me close to 40 minutes of LeBron and get everyone else out of the way. I’m not really interested in playing anyone else because, for $11,200, I want LeBron to threaten for a triple-double and do everything. 

Pelicans – My focus could be very narrow on this side as well. If Brandon Ingram remains out, the duo of Jonas Valanciunas and CJ McCollum has my interest more than anyone else. JoVal gets a dynamite matchup in the paint as the Lakers are in the bottom seven in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint. JoVal is in the top 10 in paint touches, paint points, rebounds, and rebound chances this season and nobody is going to stop him on the interior. Since the last time Ingram took the floor, JoVal is averaging 1.46 FPPM and McCollum is at 1.26 with a 30.7% usage rate. We’ve attacked the perimeter of the Lakers all year and night doesn’t change that philosophy. This game has a three-point spread and the total is the second-highest of the night at 229. We need Ingram news but trying to play a Pelican tonight could be a high priority. I’m focused on the studs in what is basically a playoff game. 

Warriors at Wizards 

Warriors – It appears that Golden State will rest guys on Monday for the second leg of the back-to-back and play everyone tonight. If that remains the case, count me in on Jordan Poole again. I’ll be looking at his assist prop during the day as he’s racked up 25 over the past three games and without Steph Curry in the lineup, he’s averaged 26 points in those nine games. The usage rate is over 30% and the salary isn’t quite expensive enough for a matchup against a team that is bottom six in defensive rating this season. I’m honestly not sure what to make out of Klay Thompson after his explosion in the last game for 55 DK points. The plus side is he played 40 minutes, which is just incredible to see for him personally. That’s tough to totally ignore and he has 1.15 FPPM on the season without Curry. My issue is Klay scored 37 real points and still only scored that 55 DK. Is he going to score almost 40 points every game? With Thompson, any number is possible for him but I’d play Poole for the cheaper salary much more often than not. I’m a little hesitant to go much outside Poole here because Draymond Green hasn’t had the same impact on categories as we’re used to and Andrew Wiggins just doesn’t have the ceiling. Let’s see the starting lineup, as it changed last game. I’m interested in Kevon Looney but want to see if he starts before deciding just how interested. 

Wizards – Kyle Kuzma is still out of the Wizards and Kristaps Porzingis has picked up the slack. He’s been a monster with 1.55 FPPM without Kuzma in his limited time with the Wizards and if that stuck, KP is not that expensive because it’s coming with a 31.4% usage rate. He’s not likely to play more than 32 minutes so there is a path to failure, but throwing KP aside is not the move. In the last game, Tomas Satoransky entered the starting lineup and played 29 minutes with 22 DK points. He’s still a value if starting but that is not for sure yet. Deni Avdija went bonkers last game and his salary is still acceptable because starting or not, Avdija will play 30-ish minutes and has 0.87 FPPM on the season without Kuzma. I’m not forcing a Washington run-back but I would go either to the top or punt with Sato if using a Wizard.

Honorable Mention

Jazz/Mavericks – These teams are strong defensively but the game is for sole possession of the fourth seed in the West. If you’re not going with LeBron, Luka Doncic is the path to take and he’s been a monster since the trade deadline. Luka has averaged close to 31 points and the team got shaken up in a positive way for him. On the other side, the trio of Donovan Mitchell, Jordan Clarkson, and Rudy Gobert are all interesting. Mitchell and Gobert were both relatively disappointing in the last game but Bojan Bogdanovic remains out of the lineup. When that is the case, Mitchell is over 36.5% for the usage rate and Clarkson is at 0.99 FPPM. Gobert will face little resistance on the interior and could easily flirt with 50 DK points in this spot.

Teams To Monitor

Celtics – With Al Horford being ruled out, Robert Williams is a significant value at just $6,000 on DK. He needs to match KAT for most of his minutes and he has block upside as well as a potential double-double. Grant Williams should start and is a value play as well. He does only have 0.68 FPPM when Horford is off the court so this isn’t a plug-and-play situation, it’s more of last man in.

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/27

We are back for a six-game slate tonight and it would be ideal if we don’t have a speaker fire like last night, wreaking havoc with the slate for about 45 minutes. Most importantly, no fan got hurt and we do have some teams on a back-to-back situation. There are some fun games on the schedule for the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/26 so let’s start digging in to see what we like!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Hornets at Nets 

Hornets – The prices are all reasonable for Charlotte as they take on a Nets squad that played last night who just so happen to lead them by 1.5 games for the eighth seed in the East. The Hornets may not be in any danger of falling out of the play-in scenario but that doesn’t mean that can’t try to get one slot higher and that should mean minutes for LaMelo Ball. He has played as many as 39 (lo and behold, he’s capable) and his ceiling is huge when he’s under $9,000. Just understand that the range of outcomes is large with him and the rest of the Hornets. They’re mostly a young squad and even though Ball has the usage rate lead at 27.6%, the consistency hasn’t always been there. Terry Rozier and Miles Bridges are options as well but Bridges could potentially see KD across the floor on some possessions and that doesn’t sound like much fun. Rozier has been running a little cold lately in his categories outside of points but that’s helped drive the salary down to much more comfortable levels. It’s easier for 40 points to pay off now with 1.05 FPPM and he has among the better matchups if Kyrie decides to defend Ball. Rozier would face the likes of Seth Curry and Goran Dragic, giving him the edge. Lastly, Mason Plumlee could be of slight interest since he’ll likely match whatever minutes Andre Drummond plays, but Drummond is the better rebounder and Plumlee has a very low floor. 

Nets – I don’t believe the Nets sit anyone tonight because Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving have missed plenty of games for various reasons this season. Additionally, neither played over 31 minutes last night and the starters altogether played fewer than normal. That was a luxury that pays off tonight as this is the only game with a total of over 230 points (237.5) and both teams are in the top 12 in pace. It’s tough to pick between KD and Kyrie since they both are over 31% for the usage rate and at least 1.41 FPPM. If you want a narrative, I could see Kyrie going off in his first home game of the season and being generally on coast-mode last night. Andre Drummond is still very interesting since he only had to play 18 minutes last night and we all know the score with big men against this Charlotte frontcourt. They get mashed in the paint in rebounding and points allowed and that’s about all Drummond does, and he has a 47.5 DK point game recently against this team. The potential is certainly there and he’s not expensive at all. It’s harder now to grab secondary players with KD and Kyrie active for every game. 

Lakers at Pelicans 

Lakers – All of a sudden, this game is close to a must-win for both teams. The Lakers are 1.5 games ahead of the Spurs at ninth and the Pelicans are just one game ahead in 10th. The loser real has some heat on them about potentially missing the play-in altogether and it will be difficult to not want to play LeBron James in this scenario. I mean, say what you like about the Lakers being trash (they are) and the hand LeBron had in it (a very large one) but he’s leading the league with 30 points per game. That’s insanity. He’s hit over 60 DK points in each of his last three games and he’s taken at least 26 shots in those three games. I can’t possibly believe that won’t happen again tonight and he’s not even the most expensive player on the board tonight. Give me close to 40 minutes of LeBron and get everyone else out of the way. I’m not really interested in playing anyone else because, for $11,200, I want LeBron to threaten for a triple-double and do everything. 

Pelicans – My focus could be very narrow on this side as well. If Brandon Ingram remains out, the duo of Jonas Valanciunas and CJ McCollum has my interest more than anyone else. JoVal gets a dynamite matchup in the paint as the Lakers are in the bottom seven in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint. JoVal is in the top 10 in paint touches, paint points, rebounds, and rebound chances this season and nobody is going to stop him on the interior. Since the last time Ingram took the floor, JoVal is averaging 1.46 FPPM and McCollum is at 1.26 with a 30.7% usage rate. We’ve attacked the perimeter of the Lakers all year and night doesn’t change that philosophy. This game has a three-point spread and the total is the second-highest of the night at 229. We need Ingram news but trying to play a Pelican tonight could be a high priority. I’m focused on the studs in what is basically a playoff game. 

Warriors at Wizards 

Warriors – It appears that Golden State will rest guys on Monday for the second leg of the back-to-back and play everyone tonight. If that remains the case, count me in on Jordan Poole again. I’ll be looking at his assist prop during the day as he’s racked up 25 over the past three games and without Steph Curry in the lineup, he’s averaged 26 points in those nine games. The usage rate is over 30% and the salary isn’t quite expensive enough for a matchup against a team that is bottom six in defensive rating this season. I’m honestly not sure what to make out of Klay Thompson after his explosion in the last game for 55 DK points. The plus side is he played 40 minutes, which is just incredible to see for him personally. That’s tough to totally ignore and he has 1.15 FPPM on the season without Curry. My issue is Klay scored 37 real points and still only scored that 55 DK. Is he going to score almost 40 points every game? With Thompson, any number is possible for him but I’d play Poole for the cheaper salary much more often than not. I’m a little hesitant to go much outside Poole here because Draymond Green hasn’t had the same impact on categories as we’re used to and Andrew Wiggins just doesn’t have the ceiling. Let’s see the starting lineup, as it changed last game. I’m interested in Kevon Looney but want to see if he starts before deciding just how interested. 

Wizards – Kyle Kuzma is still out of the Wizards and Kristaps Porzingis has picked up the slack. He’s been a monster with 1.55 FPPM without Kuzma in his limited time with the Wizards and if that stuck, KP is not that expensive because it’s coming with a 31.4% usage rate. He’s not likely to play more than 32 minutes so there is a path to failure, but throwing KP aside is not the move. In the last game, Tomas Satoransky entered the starting lineup and played 29 minutes with 22 DK points. He’s still a value if starting but that is not for sure yet. Deni Avdija went bonkers last game and his salary is still acceptable because starting or not, Avdija will play 30-ish minutes and has 0.87 FPPM on the season without Kuzma. I’m not forcing a Washington run-back but I would go either to the top or punt with Sato if using a Wizard.

Honorable Mention

Jazz/Mavericks – These teams are strong defensively but the game is for sole possession of the fourth seed in the West. If you’re not going with LeBron, Luka Doncic is the path to take and he’s been a monster since the trade deadline. Luka has averaged close to 31 points and the team got shaken up in a positive way for him. On the other side, the trio of Donovan Mitchell, Jordan Clarkson, and Rudy Gobert are all interesting. Mitchell and Gobert were both relatively disappointing in the last game but Bojan Bogdanovic remains out of the lineup. When that is the case, Mitchell is over 36.5% for the usage rate and Clarkson is at 0.99 FPPM. Gobert will face little resistance on the interior and could easily flirt with 50 DK points in this spot.

Teams To Monitor

Celtics – With Al Horford being ruled out, Robert Williams is a significant value at just $6,000 on DK. He needs to match KAT for most of his minutes and he has block upside as well as a potential double-double. Grant Williams should start and is a value play as well. He does only have 0.68 FPPM when Horford is off the court so this isn’t a plug-and-play situation, it’s more of last man in.

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/26

We’re back in action tonight with a seven-game slate and there are already two games that stand far above the pack that the field will focus on that we should as well. Let’s talk about those two games and shine a light on teams we need news from in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/26!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Bucks at Grizzlies 

Bucks – The status of Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the most important pieces of news on the entire slate. Jrue Holiday has already been ruled out and if Giannis (who has missed two of the past three games) sits again, Khris Middleton will be the only one of the big three that is active. I won’t say Middleton is an absolute must at $8,700 but he can’t be dismissed either. In 349 minutes this year without Giannis and Holiday, Middleton has 1.46 FPPM and a massive 39.8% usage rate. These players are typically over $9,000 so there is a slight discount even though perception might be he’s expensive. I have the same line of thought for Bobby Portis, who is now up to $7,400 but he has a 25.1% usage rate and 1.19 FPPM. They are totally depending on Giannis but the duo of Pat Connaughton and Brook Lopez are solid secondary targets regardless. Lopez is flirting with 30 minutes although he’s in a tough matchup as far as rebounding. Memphis remains in the top five in the league in that category even though that’s typically not where Lopez scores a ton of points. 

Grizzlies – With the news that Ja Morant is out of action for a couple of weeks, the two targets that jump to mind are Dillon Brooks and Tyus Jones. For one thing, Jones is still underpriced for averaging close to one fantasy point per minute with a 29.7% assist rate. I’ll be interested in looking to his assist prop again even though it missed the last game due to a blowout. You can play both Jones and Brooks together if you wish because I’m much happier to play Brooks now that he’s hit 34 minutes. The gloves are off and in his last game, he took 21 shots. You’re not getting that level of opportunity from a player under $6,000. Brooks is going to chuck in a game that features two teams in the top seven in pace. Of course, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. are on the table. JJJ wouldn’t be on my radar if Giannis plays and Bane has 1.16 FPPM without Morant. However, just remember when looking at his game log from last game that Brooks was not on the floor with him. That’s a late shift for the ceiling for Bane. 

Kings at Magic 

Kings – We can probably expect Davion Mitchell to continue to be a popular target on the slate because Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox remain out and Mitchell has scored 46 and 38 DK points in the past two games. He’s sporting a 23.8% sage rate and 0.86 FPPM but he also doesn’t leave the court so some inefficiency is still worth chasing. Chimezie Metu popped off last game for 33 DK points but he also shot 8-11 in his 26 minutes, so I’ll wait to see what the model says for him. The secondary targets are leaning more toward Donte DiVincenzo and Harrison Barnes because Sacramento needs bodies. These guys are going to see the floor for 32+ minutes and the Magic are 19th in defensive rating this season. The stealthy part of the environment is Orlando plays at the 10th fastest pace so this game could run-and-gun pretty easily. 

Magic – The only small issue with the Magic team is the players you’d most want to play are a little too expensive. Both Cole Anthony and Wendell Carter Jr. have a tough road to hit 6x at their current salaries and WCJ especially is flirting with almost $9,000. I would much prefer to play Middleton if he’s solo than WCJ but there is one cheap player that fits nicely in R.J. Hampton. With Jalen Suggs already being ruled out, Hampton should be in line for the 28-30 minutes he’s been getting and he only costs $4,200. His 0.78 FPPM is acceptable and looking at Anthony at 1.11 and WCJ at 1.17 doesn’t inspire much confidence that they can hit 6x. You could also look at Moe Wagner who has been playing backup minutes but he would be another model-style play tonight. One player from each side could make sense here and then utilizing 2-3 from the first game builds the majority of lineups. 

Honorable Mention 

Rockets/Trail Blazers – This is a repeat and I think we’ll get the majority of the same players, so I’m not going to repeat what Ghost said in yesterday’s article. We could see plenty of popularity coming from the late-night hammer once again. 

Teams To Monitor 

Pacers – They are just a disaster right now so who knows who will actually be active for them. In the last game, it was just nine guys so stay tuned to Discord through the day to see who and how many they have. 

Nets – It appears that Seth Curry and Goran Dragic are back for this one so picking one of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving is likely the play instead of potentially both. I want to see the Miami lineup on the second leg of a back-to-back spot before deciding. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/26

We’re back in action tonight with a seven-game slate and there are already two games that stand far above the pack that the field will focus on that we should as well. Let’s talk about those two games and shine a light on teams we need news from in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/26!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Bucks at Grizzlies 

Bucks – The status of Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the most important pieces of news on the entire slate. Jrue Holiday has already been ruled out and if Giannis (who has missed two of the past three games) sits again, Khris Middleton will be the only one of the big three that is active. I won’t say Middleton is an absolute must at $8,700 but he can’t be dismissed either. In 349 minutes this year without Giannis and Holiday, Middleton has 1.46 FPPM and a massive 39.8% usage rate. These players are typically over $9,000 so there is a slight discount even though perception might be he’s expensive. I have the same line of thought for Bobby Portis, who is now up to $7,400 but he has a 25.1% usage rate and 1.19 FPPM. They are totally depending on Giannis but the duo of Pat Connaughton and Brook Lopez are solid secondary targets regardless. Lopez is flirting with 30 minutes although he’s in a tough matchup as far as rebounding. Memphis remains in the top five in the league in that category even though that’s typically not where Lopez scores a ton of points. 

Grizzlies – With the news that Ja Morant is out of action for a couple of weeks, the two targets that jump to mind are Dillon Brooks and Tyus Jones. For one thing, Jones is still underpriced for averaging close to one fantasy point per minute with a 29.7% assist rate. I’ll be interested in looking to his assist prop again even though it missed the last game due to a blowout. You can play both Jones and Brooks together if you wish because I’m much happier to play Brooks now that he’s hit 34 minutes. The gloves are off and in his last game, he took 21 shots. You’re not getting that level of opportunity from a player under $6,000. Brooks is going to chuck in a game that features two teams in the top seven in pace. Of course, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. are on the table. JJJ wouldn’t be on my radar if Giannis plays and Bane has 1.16 FPPM without Morant. However, just remember when looking at his game log from last game that Brooks was not on the floor with him. That’s a late shift for the ceiling for Bane. 

Kings at Magic 

Kings – We can probably expect Davion Mitchell to continue to be a popular target on the slate because Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox remain out and Mitchell has scored 46 and 38 DK points in the past two games. He’s sporting a 23.8% sage rate and 0.86 FPPM but he also doesn’t leave the court so some inefficiency is still worth chasing. Chimezie Metu popped off last game for 33 DK points but he also shot 8-11 in his 26 minutes, so I’ll wait to see what the model says for him. The secondary targets are leaning more toward Donte DiVincenzo and Harrison Barnes because Sacramento needs bodies. These guys are going to see the floor for 32+ minutes and the Magic are 19th in defensive rating this season. The stealthy part of the environment is Orlando plays at the 10th fastest pace so this game could run-and-gun pretty easily. 

Magic – The only small issue with the Magic team is the players you’d most want to play are a little too expensive. Both Cole Anthony and Wendell Carter Jr. have a tough road to hit 6x at their current salaries and WCJ especially is flirting with almost $9,000. I would much prefer to play Middleton if he’s solo than WCJ but there is one cheap player that fits nicely in R.J. Hampton. With Jalen Suggs already being ruled out, Hampton should be in line for the 28-30 minutes he’s been getting and he only costs $4,200. His 0.78 FPPM is acceptable and looking at Anthony at 1.11 and WCJ at 1.17 doesn’t inspire much confidence that they can hit 6x. You could also look at Moe Wagner who has been playing backup minutes but he would be another model-style play tonight. One player from each side could make sense here and then utilizing 2-3 from the first game builds the majority of lineups. 

Honorable Mention 

Rockets/Trail Blazers – This is a repeat and I think we’ll get the majority of the same players, so I’m not going to repeat what Ghost said in yesterday’s article. We could see plenty of popularity coming from the late-night hammer once again. 

Teams To Monitor 

Pacers – They are just a disaster right now so who knows who will actually be active for them. In the last game, it was just nine guys so stay tuned to Discord through the day to see who and how many they have. 

Nets – It appears that Seth Curry and Goran Dragic are back for this one so picking one of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving is likely the play instead of potentially both. I want to see the Miami lineup on the second leg of a back-to-back spot before deciding. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/26

We’re back in action tonight with a seven-game slate and there are already two games that stand far above the pack that the field will focus on that we should as well. Let’s talk about those two games and shine a light on teams we need news from in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/26!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Bucks at Grizzlies 

Bucks – The status of Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the most important pieces of news on the entire slate. Jrue Holiday has already been ruled out and if Giannis (who has missed two of the past three games) sits again, Khris Middleton will be the only one of the big three that is active. I won’t say Middleton is an absolute must at $8,700 but he can’t be dismissed either. In 349 minutes this year without Giannis and Holiday, Middleton has 1.46 FPPM and a massive 39.8% usage rate. These players are typically over $9,000 so there is a slight discount even though perception might be he’s expensive. I have the same line of thought for Bobby Portis, who is now up to $7,400 but he has a 25.1% usage rate and 1.19 FPPM. They are totally depending on Giannis but the duo of Pat Connaughton and Brook Lopez are solid secondary targets regardless. Lopez is flirting with 30 minutes although he’s in a tough matchup as far as rebounding. Memphis remains in the top five in the league in that category even though that’s typically not where Lopez scores a ton of points. 

Grizzlies – With the news that Ja Morant is out of action for a couple of weeks, the two targets that jump to mind are Dillon Brooks and Tyus Jones. For one thing, Jones is still underpriced for averaging close to one fantasy point per minute with a 29.7% assist rate. I’ll be interested in looking to his assist prop again even though it missed the last game due to a blowout. You can play both Jones and Brooks together if you wish because I’m much happier to play Brooks now that he’s hit 34 minutes. The gloves are off and in his last game, he took 21 shots. You’re not getting that level of opportunity from a player under $6,000. Brooks is going to chuck in a game that features two teams in the top seven in pace. Of course, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. are on the table. JJJ wouldn’t be on my radar if Giannis plays and Bane has 1.16 FPPM without Morant. However, just remember when looking at his game log from last game that Brooks was not on the floor with him. That’s a late shift for the ceiling for Bane. 

Kings at Magic 

Kings – We can probably expect Davion Mitchell to continue to be a popular target on the slate because Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox remain out and Mitchell has scored 46 and 38 DK points in the past two games. He’s sporting a 23.8% sage rate and 0.86 FPPM but he also doesn’t leave the court so some inefficiency is still worth chasing. Chimezie Metu popped off last game for 33 DK points but he also shot 8-11 in his 26 minutes, so I’ll wait to see what the model says for him. The secondary targets are leaning more toward Donte DiVincenzo and Harrison Barnes because Sacramento needs bodies. These guys are going to see the floor for 32+ minutes and the Magic are 19th in defensive rating this season. The stealthy part of the environment is Orlando plays at the 10th fastest pace so this game could run-and-gun pretty easily. 

Magic – The only small issue with the Magic team is the players you’d most want to play are a little too expensive. Both Cole Anthony and Wendell Carter Jr. have a tough road to hit 6x at their current salaries and WCJ especially is flirting with almost $9,000. I would much prefer to play Middleton if he’s solo than WCJ but there is one cheap player that fits nicely in R.J. Hampton. With Jalen Suggs already being ruled out, Hampton should be in line for the 28-30 minutes he’s been getting and he only costs $4,200. His 0.78 FPPM is acceptable and looking at Anthony at 1.11 and WCJ at 1.17 doesn’t inspire much confidence that they can hit 6x. You could also look at Moe Wagner who has been playing backup minutes but he would be another model-style play tonight. One player from each side could make sense here and then utilizing 2-3 from the first game builds the majority of lineups. 

Honorable Mention 

Rockets/Trail Blazers – This is a repeat and I think we’ll get the majority of the same players, so I’m not going to repeat what Ghost said in yesterday’s article. We could see plenty of popularity coming from the late-night hammer once again. 

Teams To Monitor 

Pacers – They are just a disaster right now so who knows who will actually be active for them. In the last game, it was just nine guys so stay tuned to Discord through the day to see who and how many they have. 

Nets – It appears that Seth Curry and Goran Dragic are back for this one so picking one of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving is likely the play instead of potentially both. I want to see the Miami lineup on the second leg of a back-to-back spot before deciding. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life