NBA dfs

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/3

We’ve got another eight games ahead of us tonight and playoff teams are plentiful. There are a handful of big games and we’ll likely have some teams throwing wrenches into the works on back-to-backs. There are a couple of games that already have my attention in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/3 so let’s go to work!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Wolves at Rockets 

Wolves – They might be 12.5 point favorites to open up Saturday night but after a vital win in Denver on Friday, Minnesota has kicked the door open to potentially get out of the play-in game. They still need Denver to cooperate but the Nuggets play the Lakers at 3:30 so that is a game to keep an eye on heading into lock. The entire Minnesota team is just a hair too cheap and it starts with Karl-Anthony Towns. Big men against the Rockets have been profitable almost every single night this year and we just saw a guy like Damian Jones of the Kings torment Houston for 50+ DK points in each of the past two games, just as an example. The dynamic between KAT, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell has produced some volatility from game to game but KAT still leads the team with 1.37 FPPM and a 27.9% usage rate on the season. Edwards himself has been steady as of late, surpassing 40 DK in three straight but he’s starting to get up there so there is a floor baked into his game. He did overcome 6-15 from the floor against the Nuggets and nobody produces for opponents quite like the Rockets. D-Lo is very cheap but I think I’d rather try and catch Patrick Beverly on a good night than pay nearly $7,000 for D-Lo in this matchup.

Rockets – It’s honestly a bit tough to get a run back from Houston due to salaries. While the duo of Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green have thrived in the past two games against the Kings, they are NOT cheap at this point and it’s had to expect them to score 50 DK. Even though the game sports a 243 total already, we have to spend the salary wisely and I have other plans for this salary level. In fairness to these two players, they do have at least a 25% usage rate and KPJ is sitting at 1.24 FPPM. That’s a lot and I won’t say you’re wrong to play him, it’s just other priorities. We also get the return of Alperen Sengun and I’m excited to watch him but I don’t think I can pay $7,000. He’s coming off an injury and if there’s any question about how he reacts, he’ll get yanked off the floor. Normally when Christian Wood is out, Sengun is a primary target with 1.12 FPPM and KAT doesn’t defense, but there is a significant risk in paying that. 

Pelicans at Clippers 

Pelicans – New Orleans is flying right now with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games and they have a leg up to host the 9/10 play-in game. The Clippers are stagnant in the play-in but they’re still getting guys back to form, but New Orleans needs to continue to win and Brandon Ingram is back to full-go. He was on the court for 35 minutes in the last game and the trio of Ingram, CJ McCollum, and Jonas Valanciunas is meshing well thus far. There is a 287-minute sample now and the FPPM is basically the same for all three (1.19 to 1.21) with Ingram having the advantage in usage rate (29.8%) and assist rate (26.9%). With his salary being the most affordable, he makes the most sense based on what we have seen from the trio. McCollum is not in a bad spot either as the perimeter defense is nothing to write home about for the Clippers. I think JoVal is safe for 5x as the Clips are 23rd or wore in points and rebounds allowed in the paint, but the path to a ceiling game (especially at this salary) is much more narrow than it has been through much of the season. 

Clippers – If Paul George is under $10,000 without Kawhi Leonard, he is underpriced. That’s of course not a guarantee that he goes for 6x but the ceiling is absolutely there and it’s notable, especially against the Pelicans who are 17th in defensive rating. The Pelicans are also eighth in FG% allowed from beyond the arc and that can help PG get to a ceiling game. His usage is 34.4% on the season with 1.30 FPPM and I think he gets to 35 minutes tonight. In the last game, the limit was 32 minutes because he didn’t play the overtime period but they’ll need every minute they can get for their play-in game. Past that, I’m off the rest of the Clippers since everyone came up in salary after they went NUTS (looking at you, Robert Covington) against the Bucks. It’s a PG13 game or bust here. 

Teams to Monitor 

Suns – Phoenix has nothing to play for so Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Jae Crowder are all sitting this game out. I would be surprised if Chris Paul and Mikal Bridges played full minutes so the value Suns are going to be where it’s at tonight. JaVale McGee should start and get plenty of run but don’t be afraid to play Bismack Biyombo in deeper GPP formats. McGee isn’t going to play the whole game here and guys like Cameron Payne, Torrey Craig, and possibly Cam Johnson are all in play. I’d want to hear some type of minutes for Johnson as he played 18 in his first game returning from a quad injury, but he’s an important bench player. They’ll want him back to form in this week leading into the playoffs.

Warriors – Jordan Poole is really coming into his own while Steph Curry has missed time and I think it’s clicking for him just how important he can be to this team coming into the postseason. He went off again last night against Utah and now he gets the Kings, who are one of the most defense-deficient teams in the league at 27th in defensive rating. They also rank eighth in pace and we could see Golden State sit some players after a monster win last night against the Utah Jazz. With Curry off the floor, Poole has a 30.7% usage and it will go up if others sit out. Just imagine if Steph, Klay, and Poole are all hitting shots in the postseason. Good luck! 

As far as the rest, we’ll need to wait this out based on who’s available. I would suspect at least Draymond Green sits out and probably Klay, but he’s playing a full boatload of minutes now so that’s not set in stone. Poole and possibly one other Warrior is very appealing tonight. Oh, by the way, the Kings are allowing the second-highest FG% from a 3-point distance this year. 

Spurs – We expect Dejounte Murray back for this game after a late scratch in the last contest, and he should absolutely feast on this Trail Blazers defense. It’s down to Murray or one of the Sixers stars as far as players that are over $10,000 tonight and Murray is my favorite. It could be a rare slate I don’t jam one in if I’m targeting Poole and Timberwolves, but we’ll see how the day unfolds. 

Thunder – They continue to roll with eight men in the rotation and I’d be sticking on the lower end of things as far as salary. If Aleksej Pokusevski is out again, Jaylen Hoard could be a target again because OKC threw him out there for 40 (!) minutes in the last game and he snagged 20 rebounds. I’d be lying if I said I expected that again, but 40 minutes is 40 minutes. Lindy Waters III has been popular lately and could be again but there is some meat on the bone, even if it’s not at the high end of the salary spectrum. 

Raptors/Heat – This game may not be the most fun for fantasy but I’m still considering some exposure as both teams should play the starters quite a bit. Miami bleeds 3-point attempts and that bodes well for Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent, and OG Anunoby to some extent. Let’s see if the Heat pull any surprises with their lineup, though I don’t think that happens. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/3

We’ve got another eight games ahead of us tonight and playoff teams are plentiful. There are a handful of big games and we’ll likely have some teams throwing wrenches into the works on back-to-backs. There are a couple of games that already have my attention in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/3 so let’s go to work!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Wolves at Rockets 

Wolves – They might be 12.5 point favorites to open up Saturday night but after a vital win in Denver on Friday, Minnesota has kicked the door open to potentially get out of the play-in game. They still need Denver to cooperate but the Nuggets play the Lakers at 3:30 so that is a game to keep an eye on heading into lock. The entire Minnesota team is just a hair too cheap and it starts with Karl-Anthony Towns. Big men against the Rockets have been profitable almost every single night this year and we just saw a guy like Damian Jones of the Kings torment Houston for 50+ DK points in each of the past two games, just as an example. The dynamic between KAT, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell has produced some volatility from game to game but KAT still leads the team with 1.37 FPPM and a 27.9% usage rate on the season. Edwards himself has been steady as of late, surpassing 40 DK in three straight but he’s starting to get up there so there is a floor baked into his game. He did overcome 6-15 from the floor against the Nuggets and nobody produces for opponents quite like the Rockets. D-Lo is very cheap but I think I’d rather try and catch Patrick Beverly on a good night than pay nearly $7,000 for D-Lo in this matchup.

Rockets – It’s honestly a bit tough to get a run back from Houston due to salaries. While the duo of Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green have thrived in the past two games against the Kings, they are NOT cheap at this point and it’s had to expect them to score 50 DK. Even though the game sports a 243 total already, we have to spend the salary wisely and I have other plans for this salary level. In fairness to these two players, they do have at least a 25% usage rate and KPJ is sitting at 1.24 FPPM. That’s a lot and I won’t say you’re wrong to play him, it’s just other priorities. We also get the return of Alperen Sengun and I’m excited to watch him but I don’t think I can pay $7,000. He’s coming off an injury and if there’s any question about how he reacts, he’ll get yanked off the floor. Normally when Christian Wood is out, Sengun is a primary target with 1.12 FPPM and KAT doesn’t defense, but there is a significant risk in paying that. 

Pelicans at Clippers 

Pelicans – New Orleans is flying right now with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games and they have a leg up to host the 9/10 play-in game. The Clippers are stagnant in the play-in but they’re still getting guys back to form, but New Orleans needs to continue to win and Brandon Ingram is back to full-go. He was on the court for 35 minutes in the last game and the trio of Ingram, CJ McCollum, and Jonas Valanciunas is meshing well thus far. There is a 287-minute sample now and the FPPM is basically the same for all three (1.19 to 1.21) with Ingram having the advantage in usage rate (29.8%) and assist rate (26.9%). With his salary being the most affordable, he makes the most sense based on what we have seen from the trio. McCollum is not in a bad spot either as the perimeter defense is nothing to write home about for the Clippers. I think JoVal is safe for 5x as the Clips are 23rd or wore in points and rebounds allowed in the paint, but the path to a ceiling game (especially at this salary) is much more narrow than it has been through much of the season. 

Clippers – If Paul George is under $10,000 without Kawhi Leonard, he is underpriced. That’s of course not a guarantee that he goes for 6x but the ceiling is absolutely there and it’s notable, especially against the Pelicans who are 17th in defensive rating. The Pelicans are also eighth in FG% allowed from beyond the arc and that can help PG get to a ceiling game. His usage is 34.4% on the season with 1.30 FPPM and I think he gets to 35 minutes tonight. In the last game, the limit was 32 minutes because he didn’t play the overtime period but they’ll need every minute they can get for their play-in game. Past that, I’m off the rest of the Clippers since everyone came up in salary after they went NUTS (looking at you, Robert Covington) against the Bucks. It’s a PG13 game or bust here. 

Teams to Monitor 

Suns – Phoenix has nothing to play for so Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Jae Crowder are all sitting this game out. I would be surprised if Chris Paul and Mikal Bridges played full minutes so the value Suns are going to be where it’s at tonight. JaVale McGee should start and get plenty of run but don’t be afraid to play Bismack Biyombo in deeper GPP formats. McGee isn’t going to play the whole game here and guys like Cameron Payne, Torrey Craig, and possibly Cam Johnson are all in play. I’d want to hear some type of minutes for Johnson as he played 18 in his first game returning from a quad injury, but he’s an important bench player. They’ll want him back to form in this week leading into the playoffs.

Warriors – Jordan Poole is really coming into his own while Steph Curry has missed time and I think it’s clicking for him just how important he can be to this team coming into the postseason. He went off again last night against Utah and now he gets the Kings, who are one of the most defense-deficient teams in the league at 27th in defensive rating. They also rank eighth in pace and we could see Golden State sit some players after a monster win last night against the Utah Jazz. With Curry off the floor, Poole has a 30.7% usage and it will go up if others sit out. Just imagine if Steph, Klay, and Poole are all hitting shots in the postseason. Good luck! 

As far as the rest, we’ll need to wait this out based on who’s available. I would suspect at least Draymond Green sits out and probably Klay, but he’s playing a full boatload of minutes now so that’s not set in stone. Poole and possibly one other Warrior is very appealing tonight. Oh, by the way, the Kings are allowing the second-highest FG% from a 3-point distance this year. 

Spurs – We expect Dejounte Murray back for this game after a late scratch in the last contest, and he should absolutely feast on this Trail Blazers defense. It’s down to Murray or one of the Sixers stars as far as players that are over $10,000 tonight and Murray is my favorite. It could be a rare slate I don’t jam one in if I’m targeting Poole and Timberwolves, but we’ll see how the day unfolds. 

Thunder – They continue to roll with eight men in the rotation and I’d be sticking on the lower end of things as far as salary. If Aleksej Pokusevski is out again, Jaylen Hoard could be a target again because OKC threw him out there for 40 (!) minutes in the last game and he snagged 20 rebounds. I’d be lying if I said I expected that again, but 40 minutes is 40 minutes. Lindy Waters III has been popular lately and could be again but there is some meat on the bone, even if it’s not at the high end of the salary spectrum. 

Raptors/Heat – This game may not be the most fun for fantasy but I’m still considering some exposure as both teams should play the starters quite a bit. Miami bleeds 3-point attempts and that bodes well for Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent, and OG Anunoby to some extent. Let’s see if the Heat pull any surprises with their lineup, though I don’t think that happens. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/3

We’ve got another eight games ahead of us tonight and playoff teams are plentiful. There are a handful of big games and we’ll likely have some teams throwing wrenches into the works on back-to-backs. There are a couple of games that already have my attention in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/3 so let’s go to work!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Wolves at Rockets 

Wolves – They might be 12.5 point favorites to open up Saturday night but after a vital win in Denver on Friday, Minnesota has kicked the door open to potentially get out of the play-in game. They still need Denver to cooperate but the Nuggets play the Lakers at 3:30 so that is a game to keep an eye on heading into lock. The entire Minnesota team is just a hair too cheap and it starts with Karl-Anthony Towns. Big men against the Rockets have been profitable almost every single night this year and we just saw a guy like Damian Jones of the Kings torment Houston for 50+ DK points in each of the past two games, just as an example. The dynamic between KAT, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell has produced some volatility from game to game but KAT still leads the team with 1.37 FPPM and a 27.9% usage rate on the season. Edwards himself has been steady as of late, surpassing 40 DK in three straight but he’s starting to get up there so there is a floor baked into his game. He did overcome 6-15 from the floor against the Nuggets and nobody produces for opponents quite like the Rockets. D-Lo is very cheap but I think I’d rather try and catch Patrick Beverly on a good night than pay nearly $7,000 for D-Lo in this matchup.

Rockets – It’s honestly a bit tough to get a run back from Houston due to salaries. While the duo of Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green have thrived in the past two games against the Kings, they are NOT cheap at this point and it’s had to expect them to score 50 DK. Even though the game sports a 243 total already, we have to spend the salary wisely and I have other plans for this salary level. In fairness to these two players, they do have at least a 25% usage rate and KPJ is sitting at 1.24 FPPM. That’s a lot and I won’t say you’re wrong to play him, it’s just other priorities. We also get the return of Alperen Sengun and I’m excited to watch him but I don’t think I can pay $7,000. He’s coming off an injury and if there’s any question about how he reacts, he’ll get yanked off the floor. Normally when Christian Wood is out, Sengun is a primary target with 1.12 FPPM and KAT doesn’t defense, but there is a significant risk in paying that. 

Pelicans at Clippers 

Pelicans – New Orleans is flying right now with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games and they have a leg up to host the 9/10 play-in game. The Clippers are stagnant in the play-in but they’re still getting guys back to form, but New Orleans needs to continue to win and Brandon Ingram is back to full-go. He was on the court for 35 minutes in the last game and the trio of Ingram, CJ McCollum, and Jonas Valanciunas is meshing well thus far. There is a 287-minute sample now and the FPPM is basically the same for all three (1.19 to 1.21) with Ingram having the advantage in usage rate (29.8%) and assist rate (26.9%). With his salary being the most affordable, he makes the most sense based on what we have seen from the trio. McCollum is not in a bad spot either as the perimeter defense is nothing to write home about for the Clippers. I think JoVal is safe for 5x as the Clips are 23rd or wore in points and rebounds allowed in the paint, but the path to a ceiling game (especially at this salary) is much more narrow than it has been through much of the season. 

Clippers – If Paul George is under $10,000 without Kawhi Leonard, he is underpriced. That’s of course not a guarantee that he goes for 6x but the ceiling is absolutely there and it’s notable, especially against the Pelicans who are 17th in defensive rating. The Pelicans are also eighth in FG% allowed from beyond the arc and that can help PG get to a ceiling game. His usage is 34.4% on the season with 1.30 FPPM and I think he gets to 35 minutes tonight. In the last game, the limit was 32 minutes because he didn’t play the overtime period but they’ll need every minute they can get for their play-in game. Past that, I’m off the rest of the Clippers since everyone came up in salary after they went NUTS (looking at you, Robert Covington) against the Bucks. It’s a PG13 game or bust here. 

Teams to Monitor 

Suns – Phoenix has nothing to play for so Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Jae Crowder are all sitting this game out. I would be surprised if Chris Paul and Mikal Bridges played full minutes so the value Suns are going to be where it’s at tonight. JaVale McGee should start and get plenty of run but don’t be afraid to play Bismack Biyombo in deeper GPP formats. McGee isn’t going to play the whole game here and guys like Cameron Payne, Torrey Craig, and possibly Cam Johnson are all in play. I’d want to hear some type of minutes for Johnson as he played 18 in his first game returning from a quad injury, but he’s an important bench player. They’ll want him back to form in this week leading into the playoffs.

Warriors – Jordan Poole is really coming into his own while Steph Curry has missed time and I think it’s clicking for him just how important he can be to this team coming into the postseason. He went off again last night against Utah and now he gets the Kings, who are one of the most defense-deficient teams in the league at 27th in defensive rating. They also rank eighth in pace and we could see Golden State sit some players after a monster win last night against the Utah Jazz. With Curry off the floor, Poole has a 30.7% usage and it will go up if others sit out. Just imagine if Steph, Klay, and Poole are all hitting shots in the postseason. Good luck! 

As far as the rest, we’ll need to wait this out based on who’s available. I would suspect at least Draymond Green sits out and probably Klay, but he’s playing a full boatload of minutes now so that’s not set in stone. Poole and possibly one other Warrior is very appealing tonight. Oh, by the way, the Kings are allowing the second-highest FG% from a 3-point distance this year. 

Spurs – We expect Dejounte Murray back for this game after a late scratch in the last contest, and he should absolutely feast on this Trail Blazers defense. It’s down to Murray or one of the Sixers stars as far as players that are over $10,000 tonight and Murray is my favorite. It could be a rare slate I don’t jam one in if I’m targeting Poole and Timberwolves, but we’ll see how the day unfolds. 

Thunder – They continue to roll with eight men in the rotation and I’d be sticking on the lower end of things as far as salary. If Aleksej Pokusevski is out again, Jaylen Hoard could be a target again because OKC threw him out there for 40 (!) minutes in the last game and he snagged 20 rebounds. I’d be lying if I said I expected that again, but 40 minutes is 40 minutes. Lindy Waters III has been popular lately and could be again but there is some meat on the bone, even if it’s not at the high end of the salary spectrum. 

Raptors/Heat – This game may not be the most fun for fantasy but I’m still considering some exposure as both teams should play the starters quite a bit. Miami bleeds 3-point attempts and that bodes well for Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent, and OG Anunoby to some extent. Let’s see if the Heat pull any surprises with their lineup, though I don’t think that happens. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/31

We’re back to just five games today for the slate but there is not a shortage of playoff-caliber teams that need wins. There is a clear top-flight game that we want exposure to but there are other very strong spots that need attention in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/31!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Bucks vs Nets 

Bucks – There is only one game that is over 229 points for the total to start the night and this game is at 238. If Giannis Antetokounmpo plays 38 minutes again tonight, there’s a very strong chance he could lead the slate in scoring after going for 75 DK in the last game and the matchup on the inside is far easier against the Nets, who rank 14th in points allowed in the paint. The difference between Andre Drummond and Joel Embiid is enormous and the Bucks are only one game behind the one seed. The Nets are in the bottom 12 in defensive rating and it’s not hard to see Giannis having a field day in this one. I’m still in on Brook Lopez as well because he sunk under $4,000 and he has enough range to make Drummond come out from under the hoop, which is his comfort zone. The minutes have been there for BroLo and he took 14 shots in the last game. I don’t expect that many again but you’re not paying a big salary for him and he could help fit two studs, potentially. The duo of Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday would not be priority spends for me (I’d prefer Jrue) but it should be noted that if they treat this game as a playoff game, these two will play close to 40 minutes. Even with Giannis, they’re over 1.10 FPPM on the season and that could work even if Giannis eclipses 70 DK. 

Nets – Normally, I try to ground everything in this article in stats and metrics but I can’t help but feel like we get Kevin Durant on an absolute mission tonight. He’s averaged over 30 points in the two games he’s played them this year but it’s crunch time and you can’t tell me it doesn’t still burn him the Nets lost in the playoffs last year. I don’t think it’s likely that we can play KD and Giannis together so I’d still give the edge to Giannis but it’s still possible for the Nets to host the 7/8 game. Kyrie Irving has been super quiet for three straight games for fantasy and shooting 17-51 over those contests is driving that slump. That can’t last and the Bucks bleed 3-point attempts allowed so he’s on the table, but Kyrie is more of an MME option for me because driving to the hoop can be a little difficult among Giannis and Lopez. I’m not that interested in going with any other Net with KD and Kyrie soaking up so much usage on the team (well over 30% each). 

Cavaliers vs Hawks 

Cavaliers – Cleveland is down to the seventh seed while Atlanta is fighting to at least host the 9/10 game and potentially jump into the 7/8, so this is a mother massive game. Cleveland gets to face a bad defense in the Hawks and both teams played last night, so the defense may not be all that intense tonight. I keep feeling like Darius Garland is too expensive but given the situation they are in, maybe he’s at least playable. In the past month when Evan Mobley has been off the court (along with others), Garland is at 1.28 FPPM and a 32.4% usage rate. Seeing as how Trae Young is still a below-average defender, Garland has a path to 60 DK even if it’s a touch more narrow than you’d like for a player this high on the salary grid. Kevin Love may have bit us last night, but he’s far more affordable tonight and only played 26 minutes last night. With Love, you need that shot to work because he’s not going to rack up a ton of stats past that but the matchup and loss of any rim protection demand Love play near 30 minutes again. I’m going to be interested to see how the field reacts to Caris LeVert as well, who had a monster game. He scored 46 DK points on 32 real points and 11-19 for the floor, so there’s not exactly a lot that can be replicated to that line as far as shooting. However, in the past month in the sample from Garland, LeVert s at 0.96 FPPM and that’s with a 46.5% true shooting rate. His talent level is far above that. 

Hawks – We touched on this yesterday that the Cavs have no rim protection and Luka Doncic made nine shots within 10 feet and Cleveland allowed 50 points in the paint, nine points higher than the season average. Enter Trae Young, who is averaging 17.3 drives per game and scores 10 points from that play. It’s hard not to be interested when he’s under the $11,000 mark and Young is still carrying extra work on the offensive end with no John Collins. You could also very much talk me into Clint Capela who only had to play 20 minutes last night and he can take advantage of the weakness on the interior. Before last night, Capela played 31 minutes in consecutive games and cleared 40 DK points. Cleveland has nobody to stop him and I am very interested in the mid-range. 

Teams To Monitor 

Clippers – Coach Ty Lue admitted that Paul George playing 30 minutes wasn’t the plan, but it happened, and getting the toothpaste back in the tube is going to be tough. At $9,400, I’m very intrigued by George but the caveat is he did shoot 6-9 from deep. Either way, walking into 20 shots and PG13 has a 34.2% usage rate and 1.30 FPPM on the season. 

Jazz – I’m tempted by Donovan Mitchell after they suffered one of the worst losses of the season and there are not much better get-right spots than the Lakers. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/31

We’re back to just five games today for the slate but there is not a shortage of playoff-caliber teams that need wins. There is a clear top-flight game that we want exposure to but there are other very strong spots that need attention in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/31!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Bucks vs Nets 

Bucks – There is only one game that is over 229 points for the total to start the night and this game is at 238. If Giannis Antetokounmpo plays 38 minutes again tonight, there’s a very strong chance he could lead the slate in scoring after going for 75 DK in the last game and the matchup on the inside is far easier against the Nets, who rank 14th in points allowed in the paint. The difference between Andre Drummond and Joel Embiid is enormous and the Bucks are only one game behind the one seed. The Nets are in the bottom 12 in defensive rating and it’s not hard to see Giannis having a field day in this one. I’m still in on Brook Lopez as well because he sunk under $4,000 and he has enough range to make Drummond come out from under the hoop, which is his comfort zone. The minutes have been there for BroLo and he took 14 shots in the last game. I don’t expect that many again but you’re not paying a big salary for him and he could help fit two studs, potentially. The duo of Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday would not be priority spends for me (I’d prefer Jrue) but it should be noted that if they treat this game as a playoff game, these two will play close to 40 minutes. Even with Giannis, they’re over 1.10 FPPM on the season and that could work even if Giannis eclipses 70 DK. 

Nets – Normally, I try to ground everything in this article in stats and metrics but I can’t help but feel like we get Kevin Durant on an absolute mission tonight. He’s averaged over 30 points in the two games he’s played them this year but it’s crunch time and you can’t tell me it doesn’t still burn him the Nets lost in the playoffs last year. I don’t think it’s likely that we can play KD and Giannis together so I’d still give the edge to Giannis but it’s still possible for the Nets to host the 7/8 game. Kyrie Irving has been super quiet for three straight games for fantasy and shooting 17-51 over those contests is driving that slump. That can’t last and the Bucks bleed 3-point attempts allowed so he’s on the table, but Kyrie is more of an MME option for me because driving to the hoop can be a little difficult among Giannis and Lopez. I’m not that interested in going with any other Net with KD and Kyrie soaking up so much usage on the team (well over 30% each). 

Cavaliers vs Hawks 

Cavaliers – Cleveland is down to the seventh seed while Atlanta is fighting to at least host the 9/10 game and potentially jump into the 7/8, so this is a mother massive game. Cleveland gets to face a bad defense in the Hawks and both teams played last night, so the defense may not be all that intense tonight. I keep feeling like Darius Garland is too expensive but given the situation they are in, maybe he’s at least playable. In the past month when Evan Mobley has been off the court (along with others), Garland is at 1.28 FPPM and a 32.4% usage rate. Seeing as how Trae Young is still a below-average defender, Garland has a path to 60 DK even if it’s a touch more narrow than you’d like for a player this high on the salary grid. Kevin Love may have bit us last night, but he’s far more affordable tonight and only played 26 minutes last night. With Love, you need that shot to work because he’s not going to rack up a ton of stats past that but the matchup and loss of any rim protection demand Love play near 30 minutes again. I’m going to be interested to see how the field reacts to Caris LeVert as well, who had a monster game. He scored 46 DK points on 32 real points and 11-19 for the floor, so there’s not exactly a lot that can be replicated to that line as far as shooting. However, in the past month in the sample from Garland, LeVert s at 0.96 FPPM and that’s with a 46.5% true shooting rate. His talent level is far above that. 

Hawks – We touched on this yesterday that the Cavs have no rim protection and Luka Doncic made nine shots within 10 feet and Cleveland allowed 50 points in the paint, nine points higher than the season average. Enter Trae Young, who is averaging 17.3 drives per game and scores 10 points from that play. It’s hard not to be interested when he’s under the $11,000 mark and Young is still carrying extra work on the offensive end with no John Collins. You could also very much talk me into Clint Capela who only had to play 20 minutes last night and he can take advantage of the weakness on the interior. Before last night, Capela played 31 minutes in consecutive games and cleared 40 DK points. Cleveland has nobody to stop him and I am very interested in the mid-range. 

Teams To Monitor 

Clippers – Coach Ty Lue admitted that Paul George playing 30 minutes wasn’t the plan, but it happened, and getting the toothpaste back in the tube is going to be tough. At $9,400, I’m very intrigued by George but the caveat is he did shoot 6-9 from deep. Either way, walking into 20 shots and PG13 has a 34.2% usage rate and 1.30 FPPM on the season. 

Jazz – I’m tempted by Donovan Mitchell after they suffered one of the worst losses of the season and there are not much better get-right spots than the Lakers. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life