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NBA dfs

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 10/24

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

The first week of the NBA season now behind us and there are plenty of intriguing storylines to follow. New acquisitions in the Eastern Conference are making their mark early, while certain teams out West are already underperforming. As teams get ready for the what the second week has to offer, tonight’s action gets us started on the right note. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Having numerous tournaments won by our subscribers over the first week of the NBA season says it all. The NBA is unlike any other sport from a DFS perspective, but with our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups, you’re right where you need to be to succeed. Be sure to join the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need to win.

Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets (-1)

Utah Jazz (+1)

I, like everyone else, certainly did not have the Utah Jazz being first in the Western Conference after the first week of the NBA season on my bingo card. Gone are Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, and Bojan Bogdanovic, but that has not slowed the team down. Tonight, the 3-0 Jazz take on the league’s worst defense in the Houston Rockets on the second half of a back-to-back. Not only is this rotation in one of the best game environments on the slate, but they have massive Point/$ upside. Pacing the offense is none other than Lauri Markkanen, who has benefitted tremendously from the change of scenery. Markkanen leads all starters with a 23% usage rate while posting a 24/9.7/3.7 scoring line on 48.1% shooting. With rookie Jabari Smith Jr. still adjusting his game, look for Markkanen to utilize his size on the wing in a favorable matchup.

Houston Rockets (-1)

While the Rockets won’t be contending for the playoffs anytime soon, their future is bright. The young core of Porter Jr., Green, Smith Jr., and Sengun is certainly one of the best in the NBA. Not only are their game environments elite, but their current Point/$ upside is unlike any other offense on the slate. While Jared Vanderbilt is a good defender in the paint, the rest of the Jazz starting five is struggling to contain their opposition. Jalen Green is streaky given the high correlation between his DFS output and raw scoring, but a matchup against Jordan Clarkson is too good to pass up. On the season, Green leads the Rockets in usage at a 29.3% rate, while posting a 23.7/4.7/2.3 scoring line on 43.3% shooting. Taking 20 field goal attempts per night, Green is in a great spot.

Brooklyn Nets @ Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5)

Brooklyn Nets (+1.5)

Coming into the NBA season with lofty expectations, the Nets successfully bounced back from an ugly loss in their season opener with a tightly contested win against the Raptors. While both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are firmly in play, I want to highly the role that Nic Claxton has been playing in the paint. Despite the modest 19.3% usage rate through two games, Claxton is third on the team in scoring. He has now posted a double-double in both games this season, averaging 16/10.5 on 77.8% shooting. Logging nearly 30 minutes per contest, look for the Nets to run the floor in the transition game in an attempt to make the Grizzlies roll out a smaller lineup, making Claxton all that much more intriguing.

Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5)

Should Dillon Brooks (thigh) miss a fourth straight game, it’s all systems go on Ja Morant. Pacing the team with a 36.3% usage rate, Morant has averaged a whopping 34.3 PPG in the first three games of his season. Taking over 20 field goal attempts per night, he’s shooting 54.8% from the field, including 57.1% from behind the arc. In a matchup versus Kyrie Irving, who has net defensive rating of 124.1 this season, Morant has the potential to lead the NBA slate in scoring.

Honorable Mentions:

Indiana Pacers @ Philadelphia 76ers (-11.5)
Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trail Blazers (+3.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 10/21

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

With the Bucks and Clippers both kicking off their seasons last night, every NBA team now has at least one game under their belt. Tonight, we’re back to a full slate of games and the schedule is now more balanced heading into the second week of the year. There are short rotations to take advantage of and a few game environments that stand out above the rest. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

I’ll continue to preach the fact that news breaks in the NBA is unlike any other sport. This not only makes every slate different, but it emphasizes how crucial it is to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups. Be sure to join the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need to win NBA DFS tournaments.

San Antonio Spurs @ Indiana Pacers (-3.5)

San Antonio Spurs (+3.5)

While it was Keldon Johnson who paced the team in minutes and scoring, there are affordable options to get exposure to a rebuilding Spurs squad on this NBA slate. Firstly, Devin Vassell remains underpriced in the backcourt. He not only had a higher usage rate than Johnson, but he also has the opportunity to grow from his decent outing from a few nights ago. Vassell shot 0-for-8 from behind the arc and only 3-for-15 from the field, despite still putting up 20.5 DK points. Alongside Vassell is starting point guard, Tre Jones, who will continue running this offense, in addition to rookie Jeremy Sochan, who gets a friendly matchup versus a frontcourt that will be without their best defender in Myles Turner.

Indiana Pacers (-3.5)

In Wednesday’s article, I told you to get used to seeing Tyrese Haliburton’s name listed here. Tonight, in his second game of the NBA season, I’m talking about him once again. While Haliburton finished fourth on the team in usage rate at 24.8%, he led them in field goal attempts, scoring, and assists. He is the heartbeat to this Pacers offense and remains firmly in play until his price catches up to him. Other, with Myles Turner still out, projection model darling Jalen Smith was a mere 6% rostered, despite being our top value play. Not only did he come through with 30 DK points at $4,400, but he also led the team in usage rate at 29.1%. Smith had a great outing on Wednesday, and that was with early foul trouble, which he won’t have to be concerned with versus an imposing Spurs frontcourt tonight.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Houston Rockets (+5)

Memphis Grizzlies (-5)

With Jaren Jackson Jr. (foot) out for the next two months, there is value to be had in this Memphis frontcourt. Moreover, Dillon Brooks (thigh) is doubtful for tonight, increasing minutes across a thin rotation. Ja Morant finished last game with a 34/4/9 scoring line on 45.8% shooting, leading the Grizzlies in both usage rate at 37.2% and field goal attempts with 24. In the frontcourt, the trio of Steven Adams, Santi Aldama, and Brandon Clarke will all get further looks on offense in the absence of Jackson Jr. Of the three, Aldama was the most impressive, not only leading the trio, but actually pacing his whole team in minutes played. Clarke can come in and be efficient at any point, but all signs point to coach Taylor Jenkins using Clarke off the bench, leaving Aldama time to build on his 18/11 effort in the Grizzlies’ season opener.

Houston Rockets (+5)

The Houston Rockets are going to be a ton of fun this NBA season. The trio of Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., and Kevin Porter Jr. are all impactful players. The three combined for 54 points on 56 shots, shooting a mere 39.29% from the field, but have an easier matchup tonight than Dejounte Murray and DeAndre Hunter. Meanwhile, Bruno Fernando got a surprising start and produced well in 25 minutes, posting a 7/9/7 scoring line on 100% shooting. However, I’ll let the field chase his previous game. The usage was an abysmal 6.2%, while his seven assists were a career high. Rather, Alperen Sengun makes for an intriguing tournament play coming off the bench. He logged nearly as many minutes as Fernando with 22 of his own, while also leading the team with a 30.5% usage rate and has a size advantage over the Grizzlies bench.

Honorable Mentions:

New Orleans Pelicans @ Charlotte Hornets (+6)
Phoenix Suns @ Portland Trail Blazers (+4.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 10/20

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

After numerous NBA teams kicked off their season yesterday, we have a mere four squads in action tonight. However, the stars are plentiful and two marquee matchups await us. Two perennial MVP candidates face off in a battle of two Eastern Conference powerhouses, while the battle of LA closes out the slate. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

As previously mentioned in articles and in Discord, the rate at which news breaks in the NBA is unlike any other sport. This not only makes every slate different, but it emphasizes how crucial it is to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups. Be sure to join the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need to win NBA DFS tournaments.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers (-4)

Milwaukee Bucks (+4)

With Khris Middleton (wrist) ruled out for the first few weeks of the NBA season, Giannis Antetokounmpo will have to carry this Bucks offense. In addition, not only is Donte DiVincenzo now in Golden State, but Pat Connaughton (calf) is also missing for the opening month of action. The Bucks are suddenly thin on offense, and it will be up to Giannis and Jrue Holiday to carry the load. The former ended last season with a 29.9/11.6/5.8 scoring line on 55.3% shooting while leading his team with a 34.6% usage rate. Tonight, at the top of the pricing grid, he is far and away the premier option.

Philadelphia 76ers (-4)

Despite James Harden stealing the show in a season opening loss for the 76ers, it was Joel Embiid who saw the most action on offense, as he did for the majority of last year’s NBA season. Pacing his squad with a 33% usage rate, Embiid failed to take advantage of early foul trouble for Al Horford and Noah Vonleh, but still led the team in field goal attempts and rebounds, while also getting to the charity stripe nine times.

Debating between the two Philadelphia stars tonight is an issue given their individual matchups. Embiid has to deal with Giannis and Lopez in the paint, while Harden sees a far more elite defender in Holiday than he did on opening night in Marcus Smart. Thus, I’ll be going back to the well with Tyrese Maxey. Despite a slow start, Maxey scored 21 points on 50% shooting, where 15 of his 21 points came in the second and fourth quarters. Not only did he play every second of those frames, but he was the go-to option on offense. Lining up against the likes of Wes Matthews and Grayson Allen, Maxey is one of the best Point/$ options on tonight’s NBA slate, let alone this Philadelphia offense.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers (+5.5)

LA Clippers (-5.5)

The return of Kawhi Leonard is one of the best storylines this NBA season has to offer. After missing all of last year, Leonard looks to form a formidable duo with Paul George in the quest for a championship. Despite 2016-2017 being the last time he played over 70 games, Kawhi remains a top 10 talent in this league. In over 100 games played, Leonard sports a 30.8% usage rate during his Clippers tenure, averaging a 26/6/5.8 scoring line. Unless he is on a hard minutes limit, both he and George make for excellent tournament plays.

LA Lakers (+5.5)

We can talk about Russell Westbrook and the Lakers’ shooting woes all we want, but truthfully, that isn’t where the issue lies. Yes, the Lakers shot an abysmal 10-for-40 from behind the arc on opening night, but it was Anthony Davis’ lack of aggressiveness in the paint the caught my eye. Despite playing against much weaker and smaller big men in the paint, Davis grabbed a mere six rebounds, while LeBron took down fifteen. Finishing second on the Lakers with 22 field goal attempts, in addition to nine free throws, Davis has the ceiling to be an elite target on any NBA slate, but remains to regain true form.

Firstly, the trio of Laker guards is a question mark tonight, as is what to do with LeBron James. You simply cannot fit James while playing one of George or Leonard alongside Giannis, so a decision has to be made. The public can say what they want about Westbrook, but he was efficient on opening night, dropping 19/11/3 on only twelve shots. He was pushing the pace and attacking the glass for rebounds. Kendrick Nunn remains an x-factor on offense in a supporting role off the bench, but his shot needs to drop for him to produce in NBA DFS. Lastly, Patrick Beverley will always be a wild card given his tenacity, but a game environment like this screams decent production. The usage will be modest throughout the season, but if he can stay out of foul trouble, the assists and rebounds will be there.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 10/19

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

After two thrilling games on opening night, we have our first large slate of the NBA season. New rotations and multiple players making debuts with their new teams steal the headlines, but there are also players returning from serious injuries and plenty of elite game environments to target. While the games listed in the Honorable Mentions section at the end of the article are high on my list, they will be popular. Thus, discussed are a few spots that may go overlooked in tournaments. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

You will see a reoccurring message across all articles, but it’s truly imperative to success. The way NBA news rolls in unlike any other sport makes every slate different. Thus, it’s crucial to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups. Be sure to join the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need to win NBA DFS tournaments.

Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers (+2)

Washington Wizards (-2)

In a game that will largely go overlooked on a large NBA slate, there is offensive upside to be had. The Wizards offense will continue to run through Bradley Beal, who is expensive tonight, but his teammates are not. Kyle Kuzma is coming of a career year where he averaged 17.1/8.5/3.5 on 45.2% shooting through a 24.3% usage rate. Facing off versus a combination of poor defenders and inexperienced wings, he may not make my final lineup, but Kuzma draws intrigue in my preview.

Indiana Pacers (+2)

On the flipside of this game, get used to seeing Tyrese Haliburton listed here early and often. In 13 games for the Pacers last season, Haliburton was electric. The usage was modest at 20.2%, but he averaged an 18/10.9 double-double while also grabbing nearly five rebounds per game. Facing a Wizards perimeter defense that struggles to guard primary ball handlers, Haliburton finds himself as a key component of my NBA lineups tonight.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Brooklyn Nets (-3)

Brooklyn Nets (-3)

The pace of this one will be off the charts and both teams carry a ton of upside. Brooklyn had an offseason to remember, involving storylines surrounding their two star players, but their rotation remains intact and now has reinforcements. Should you choose to go with a 1-2 punch at the top of the pricing grid tonight from the same game, this is it. Beginning with Kevin Durant, your NBA lineups can generate upside from a back and forth in this one. Durant can score with ease, dropping nearly 30 PPG last season through a 31.1% usage rate. One of the safest players in the league to log heavy minutes nightly, Durant not only has a safe floor, but one of the highest ceilings on this slate.

New Orleans Pelicans (+3)

Making his return to an NBA floor in this one is none other than Zion Williamson. The former Duke standout missed all of last season, but is back after averaging 27/7.2/3.7 across 33 MPG in his last full campaign. In a glorious matchup versus a Nets defense that struggled mightily on the interior last season, Williamson is intriguing for tournaments, barring any minute limitations. The Nets allowed over 47 points in the paint per contest last season, and didn’t address their interior defense in the offseason. A force in the paint that averaged seven paint touches per game in his last full season, good for 10th in the NBA, Williamson makes for a good target in tournaments.

Charlotte Hornets @ San Antonio Spurs (+2)

Charlotte Hornets (-2)

Let it be known that both of these teams are tanking for Victor Wembanyama. Arguably the most hyped NBA prospect since LeBron James, if you have not seen footage of his game, I suggest going to watch it as soon as possible. Needless to say that these types of game environments will be elite for NBA DFS this year and we won’t have to wait until the later stages of the season to get exposure to them. With LaMelo Ball (ankle) not playing in the Hornets’ season opener, look for both Kelly Oubre Jr. and Terry Rozier to take all the shots they can handle. With Ball off the court last season, both Rozier and Oubre Jr. saw increases in usage and fantasy production. Rozier saw his usage rate increase from 23.4% to 25.5%, while Oubre Jr. saw an increase in usage from 22.9% to 25.9%.

San Antonio Spurs (+2)

Gone is Dejounte Murray, the former face of the Spurs franchise, as they now enter their biggest rebuild since drafting Tim Duncan. With Murray now in Atlanta, there are so many touches to go around offensively and the Spurs are in arguably the best matchup NBA DFS has to offer. Charlotte ended last season 5th in pace and 22nd in net defensive rating, struggling across multiple positions and player types. Dominating usage for the Spurs early on is Tre Jones, who will be supported by the likes of Josh Primo and Devin Vassell in the backcourt, with the duo of Keldon Johnson and Jakob Poeltl manning the frontcourt. In eleven starts last season, Jones posted a 13.5/4.6/7.5 scoring line on 48.8% shooting all on a mere 17.5% usage rate.

Honorable Mentions:

Houston Rockets @ Atlanta Hawks (-9.5)
Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings (-2)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems – Opening Day 10/18

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

It’s finally time – the NBA season has arrived. After an offseason filled with player movement, intriguing storylines, and turmoil amongst some of the league’s best teams, the quest for an NBA championship begins tonight. Opening Day in the NBA is one of the biggest nights of the season, and tonight’s marquee matchups certainly aren’t short of storylines.

If it is your first NBA season with us, you’re in for a lot of content. Including both written and video, articles will be posted daily Monday through Friday, while shows will be aired across all platforms. The daily articles will provide an insight into the slate; identifying the right game environments are imperative to success, along with individual players and matchups. Our analysis is unlike any other, and you are given all the information you need. Amongst that is our list of tools available. Our infamous proprietary NBA projections, a cheat sheet, and content in both written and video formats are key to success. You will not only hear myself talk about the projections a ton, but the members as well. I firmly believe we have the best NBA projections across the industry, and now, so do you.

Tonight, LeBron and AD take on the defending Champions on their ring night, while Joel Embiid and the 76ers take on Jayson Tatum and the Celtics. We have to get creative to get to the top of the leaderboards on any two-game NBA slate, and that is exactly what we will do. For the first time this season: it’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics (-3.5)

Despite having two of the best rosters in the Eastern Conference last season, both the 76ers and Celtics still had overhauls to their respective rotations. These two teams have some of the best stars in the NBA, but their benches needed reinforcements. The Celtics brought in Danilo Gallinari, only to likely lose him for the season to a torn ACL. Later, Boston replaced Gallinari’s spot in the rotation by signing Blake Griffin. However, the most notable addition came in the form of a true ball handler: Malcolm Brogdon. The former Virginia standout will not only alleviate pressure off of Tatum, Brown, and Smart, but also provide the Celtics with a formidable backcourt defense in closeout minutes.

On the flipside, Philadelphia made moves of their own. In are P.J. Tucker, De’Anthony Melton, and Montrezl Harrell, while Danny Green has been traded to the Grizzlies. Harrell will remain a defensive liability, but provides offensive upside to a bench unit operating without Embiid. Moreover, Tucker brings grit and defensive stability, alleviating pressure on Tobias Harris. Lastly, Melton gives the 76ers another ball handler to lead the bench unit, giving more freedom to Harden and Maxey in the starting 5.

Boston Celtics (-3.5)

Pacing the Celtics once again this NBA season is none other than Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The formidable duo led the team in scoring at 26.9 and 23.6 PPG, respectively. They were also the lone players to register usage rates over 23%, leading the team at 32% and 30.4%, respectively. While Tatum has done well in this matchup in the past, the addition of P.J. Tucker complicates things on an NBA slate where DFS studs are plentiful. If you are looking to get three studs in your lineups, Brown would likely be the third, but I personally cannot get there with comfort.

Thus, I’ll be turning to the Celtics bench for exposure to this offense. I already discussed Malcolm Brogdon in the section above, and he’s certainly in play on this opening NBA slate. In the absence of Robert Williams III, expect Boston to go smaller to avoid burning out veterans Blake Griffin and Al Horford. With an anticipated closing lineup of Brogdon, Smart, Brown, Tatum, and Horford, Brogdon has opportunity right away with the potential for a 20/5/5 game. As I alluded to above, Robert Williams III is out for the next 6-8 weeks. As a result, Grant Williams and Al Horford will see an increase in minutes in the frontcourt. However, smaller lineups will benefit Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White.

Philadelphia 76ers (+3.5)

The core of the 76ers is back and they have the reinforcements to make a serious run at an NBA championship this season. MVP candidate Joel Embiid is fresh off a scoring title, where he posted 30.6 PPG on a 50/37/81 split. Not only did he lead the league in scoring, but Embiid also paced his peers in usage rate. Eclipsing 37% last season, right ahead of Luka Doncic, Embiid is primed for another stellar campaign. Tonight, in a matchup where NBA All-Defensive counterpart Robert Williams III is absent, my NBA lineups start with The Process.

A glaring misprice on this NBA slate, Tyrese Maxey will be one of the most rostered players in the field. Entering his third year in the league, Maxey has quickly become a fan favorite in the City of Brotherly Love. In his sophomore season, Maxey saw his minutes increase by 20 per night, logging over 35 minutes per contest. Acting as a secondary ball handler to James Harden, the upside is there for him to capitalize on offense while his backcourt teammate draws coverage from reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Marcus Smart. By locking in Joel Embiid and needing his DFS ceiling, my 76ers exposure ends with these two, but can’t fault you for looking at Harden, Harris, and Melton.

LA Lakers @ Golden State Warriors (-6.5)

LeBron James versus Steph Curry on Opening Day is exactly what NBA fans are excited about. This game certainly won’t be short on star power, and we are in for a treat after the Warriors dynasty celebrates yet another ring ceremony. However, once the game tips off, all eyes will be on the new-look Lakers. Patrick Beverley was acquired from the Utah Jazz after being trading from the Timberwolves, who acquired Rudy Gobert. Kendrick Nunn is healthy, and Anthony Davis looks to regain his former All-NBA form. The news surrounding Russell Westbrook will be ongoing throughout the season, but the real question mark surrounding this team is on the wing. LA brought in Lonnie Walker IV and Juan Toscano-Anderson to support Austin Reaves, but is it enough? They still lack perimeter shooting, but never count LeBron James and Anthony Davis out of a championship run.

The Warriors roster largely remains intact, at least on paper. Drama surrounding Draymond Green and Jordan Poole stole the headlines, but the Warriors look poised to make another deep playoff run. The core of Curry, Thompson, Green, Poole, and Wiggins are all returning, while key rotation player Kevon Looney was resigned. A healthy James Wiseman could be an x-factor for Golden State, and the players they lost this offseason were quickly replaced. Gone are Gary Payton II and Otto Porter Jr., ceding their roster spots to Donte DiVincenzo and JaMychal Green. While the growth of both Moody and Kuminga are at the forefront of the Warriors future, this roster remains elite.

LA Lakers (+6.5)

The first question surrounding our Lakers exposure on tonight’s NBA slate is what to do with Anthony Davis. Assuming most flock to LeBron James for a mere increase in salary, AD could provide serious leverage over the field. At a mere $8,500 on DraftKings, Davis has the ceiling to be able to be an x-factor. While there is always injury concern, the upside is huge and he must be considered. LeBron James is chasing history this season, being 1,325 points away from the all-time scoring record. If that wasn’t enough motivation on Opening Day, how about having to watch Curry get his fourth ring in his home arena? The narratives are fun to follow, but truthfully, James is fresh off a season where he scored over 30 PPG on a 32.3% usage rate, playing over 37 minutes per night, making him an elite DFS play on a nightly basis.

The Lakers backcourt will presumably be a spot of value on this NBA slate. With Dennis Schroder now being out for the next 3-4 weeks, both Kendrick Nunn and Patrick Beverley will garner interest, especially with the former being minimum price on DraftKings. In his last full season in 2020-2021, Nunn averaged 14.6/3.2/2.6 for the Heat and has been flashing upside throughout preseason hoops. Beverley brings a tenacity to the Lakers perimeter defense and will certainly shadow Curry as much as possible, but the offensive upside remains capped while sharing the floor with James and Davis.

Golden State Warriors (-6.5)

It’s the first NBA slate of the season and we already have injury news. Coach Steve Kerr has reportedly expressed concern over the starting unit’s conditioning. Thus, they are likely to remain capped at 30 minutes, if they hit that mark at all. This rotation will be spread around in the early stages of the season, especially considering how short their offseasons have been.

Klay Thompson remains cautious with his rehab from multiple knee injuries, while Draymond Green and Steph Curry have been notorious for slow starts on Opening Day. Moreover, look for Kerr to get the youngsters involved early on. Kuminga, Moody, and Wiseman figure to be in his plans, while veterans fill out the rotation. Thus, I will likely be turning to the newly signed duo of Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins. The former was a 6th Man of the Year candidate last year, enjoying a breakout campaign. Poole sported a whopping 26% usage rate off the bench, putting up 18.5 PPG on 14 shots per night. Meanwhile, Wiggins thrived in the NBA Playoffs, but remains a modest option on offense. If you’re looking for upside, he may not be your best target, but he does provide a safe floor to round our your lineups.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports

NBA DFS Today: Round One Western Conference

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

The playoffs are finally here and the fun gets going right away today with a game nice and early! The West looks like it should be pretty predictable as every series is heavily tilted toward one team at the book, but that doesn’t mean we can’t see some competitive games. Let’s talk about the players to target from each team in the NBA DFS Today: Western Conference to find green screens!

The NBA Playoffs have arrived, but the strategy remains the same. Be sure to utilize the tools, as you have been all season long:

Phoenix Suns (1) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (8)

Suns – Phoenix ran away with the best record in the league pretty much from Day 1 of the regular season so this series is likely to be the least competitive. Their starting rotation of Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, and Deandre Ayton was one of the best units in the league night in, and night out but Crowder is not likely to be on our list for fantasy most nights. If he’s the last forward that fits a lineup, I wouldn’t fight you too hard on that, but keep in mind that Crowder and Bridges were both under .90 FPPM on the season. I lean towards being more likely to play Bridges, not because of his 15.3% usage but because he’s most likely to be tasked with matching up with Brandon Ingram from New Orleans most nights. Bridges is a DPOY candidate for a reason and while he can’t shut down Ingram totally, he has the length and ability to make it difficult on Ingram and hit some big shots at the other end.

The key reserves for the Suns are Cam Payne, Cam Johnson, and JaVale McGee but those would be model plays on any given night. If you think that Phoenix can blow out the Pelicans (Game 1 is a 10.5-point spread), they could come into play but the stars of this series for me are Paul and Booker. Ayton is going to be going back and forth in the paint with Jonas Valanciunas all series but Booker and Paul are going to be able to pick on the defense of CJ McCollum and the pick-and-roll game could be devastating. The Pelicans were in the bottom eight in points per game allowed to the ball handler and roll man in the pick-and-roll, and Paul (with Ayton) can exploit that in a major way. For Booker, I think the Pelicans may try and combat him with Herb Jones if they can and Jones has played well defensively. Booker is at the next level and this isn’t a matchup that I would fear until proven otherwise.

Update 4/22 – Booker is now out with a hamstring injury for the rest of this series and longer should the Suns move on. Through the regular season, Paul led the team in minutes without Booker and produced 1.27 FPPM and I don’t see that changing in a playoff game. I would think either Cam Johnson or Cam Payne would draw the start and they’re not overly expensive but neither cleared 0.85 FPPM with Paul on the court. I would expect CP3 will be more aggressive looking for his shot and we can also utilize Landry Shamet as a punt, if the model signs off on it.

Pelicans – This side of the ball is not going to be terribly interesting to me on most slates. Ingram has some tough sledding and it’s not that he can’t score at all but I’m not going to be paying the salary very often. Jonas Valanciunas should have safer minutes because the Suns don’t really take Ayton off the floor and JoVal is going to be needed to try and slow down the pick-and-roll game from the Phoenix offense. The Suns also were fifth in points allowed in the paint so it’s a bit of a tougher matchup for JoVal on paper as well. CJ McCollum might have to do the heavy lifting on the perimeter but this is still one of the best defenses in the league (third in defensive rating). Herb Jones will get plenty of minutes but perhaps the most interesting thing is does catch Willie Green turn to any of his bench players to spark the lineup? Larry Nance and Trey Murphy III both played BIG roles in the comeback against the Clippers. Was that a one-time thing or is there something else? The model will guide us but if anything, maybe Murphy can be a cheap pivot in the punt range. Nance’s minutes came at the expense of JoVal so I don’t see a larger role for him on most nights.

Series Picks

Adam – Suns in 4

Ghost – Suns in 4

Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (7)

Grizzlies – He may have missed plenty of time during the regular season but the Grizzlies best chances for a deep playoff run still reside with Ja Morant. He led guards in scoring in the paint in the NBA this season (14.8) and is one of the most fearless finishers in the league. Minnesota is 19th in scoring allowed in the paint and there’s not exactly anything that scares me with Morant. Playoff basketball tends to grind down a little bit but these two teams could be a big exception because they were first and fourth in pace during the regular season. Additionally, both teams are in the top seven in offensive rating so this series should be entertaining

After Morant, there are going to be mid-range options. Dillon Brooks is going to be on the court a ton and most likely tasked with defending Anthony Edwards. Brooks is tenacious and in-your-face and while the offensive game is flighty, he’s going to go off in at least one or two games. He’s also going to rack up some foul trouble in others so he’s not bringing a lot of stability to the proceedings. I’d expect Desmond Bane to match up with D’Angelo Russell as Memphis will try to “hide” Morant on Patrick Beverly when they can and the T-Wolves were fifth in 3-point frequency allowed this year. I’m very curious to see what happens with Steven Adams. Do the Grizzlies let him play 30 minutes and just eat the glass, trying to see if he can bait Karl-Anthony Towns into bad fouls again? Or do they not worry about it as much since KAT isn’t exactly Mr. In The Paint and potentially just try to run even more with Jaren Jackson Jr. playing more center? The salaries are going to matter per slate here, and we can potentially take shots with Brandon Clarke as well. He’s been at 1.13 FPPM on the year and even in 20 minutes, he could pay off a cheaper tag and if Adams is off the floor, he has a path to success.

Timberwolves – The good news is KAT cannot play much worse than he did in the play-in round, fouling out early and generally having one of his worst games ever. I could see him coming out aggressive in this one to try and put that one behind him and he did lead the Wolves with a 27.9% usage rate and 1.37 FPPM. It’s really tough to get anyone on the fringe correct here because even after KAT, Edwards and D’Lo are going to be chucking shots and they both played well in the game against the Clippers. Does that give them too much swagger and derail the offense? Maybe not, but Ant has that hero ball streak in him where he can hog the ball. This trio is going to hoist the majority of shots and they all had usage rates over 25% with D’Lo leading in assist rate at 32.1%. I don’t believe we should take much from the rotations from the play-in game because foul trouble was everywhere and another thing to keep in mind is Memphis was sixth in defensive rating. The perception around the Memphis squad doesn’t make you think about the defensive end but they are good on that end of the floor as well with JJJ being a DPOY candidate. We’ll also likely be able to play Beverly as the last man in since he’ll try to get under the skin of Morant as much as possible, so it should be a cheap 30 minutes or so at the guard position. I do believe Memphis will be a more playable team since the hierarchy in the offense is easier to parse.

Series Picks

Adam – Grizzlies in 6

Ghost – Grizzlies in 5

Golden State Warriors (3) vs. Denver Nuggets (6)

Warriors – It’s almost difficult to say exactly what to expect from the Warriors in the early going because A. Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green have shared the court for 11.3 minutes this season and B. Curry will have a minutes limi,t at least in Game 1. That leads me to not really playing Curry early on but focusing on Klay, Dray, Jordan Poole off the bench in the scoring role, and potentially Andre Iguodala as a cheap punt. The Iggy play is more “let’s see what the model does with him” but I could see him having a decent-sized role off the bench on that second unit, or whatever passes for it. Dray has been a 16-game player throughout his career, a term he’s said many times meaning the focus is always on the playoffs. When the Warriors looked like title contenders early in the year, they were leading the league in defensive rating. Without Green on the floor, the defensive rating was 112.0 and that would be around 18th in the league. Green is that important to this team and he can rack up fantasy points without scoring, acting as the de facto point guard (32.6% assist rate, highest on the team) and defensive maestro on the other end.

If Curry is actually limited, Klay and Poole are going to have a green light to real chuck shots and the Nuggets permitter defense is nothing to be scared of. Denver was in the top 10 in FG% allowed from 3-point land, but these guys are different. We all know the insane heaters Klay is capable of and Poole found his groove after the Curry injury late in the year. Poole, Curry, and Thompson were the only three with a usage rate over 23% on the team and those four are my main targets in this series. I don’t see Andrew Wiggins making a fantasy impact as his play has really dropped off after the All-Star break and he sunk to 0.92 FPPM, and that was without the trio on the floor together. It’s not going to get better when they’re playing the majority of the game. One last player that I at least want to see if he starts is Kevon Looney. He hit 27 DK in three of four games against the Nuggets this year and played at least 26 minutes in all four. If the Warriors opt to start him and play him a good amount, he could be a cheap source of value while trying to provide at least resistance against the league’s soon-to-be 2x MVP.

Nuggets – You’d probably guess that the Nuggets start and ends with Nikola Jokic and you’re mostly going to be right. There’s not that much left to say about the man at this point since we’ve been playing him all season and he has 1.80 FPPM and a 32.2% usage rate. His season has been historic on many fronts and if the Nuggets have a chance in this series, he needs to somehow be even greater. The Warriors are not really equipped to deal with him and I wonder if they just let him get his and force everyone else to do more to win games. I’d rather let Joker go 40/15/5 every game because getting another 60-75 points from Monte Morris, Aaron Gordon, and Will Barton is not going to happen very often. The only other players on the team that averaged more than a fantasy point per minute were DeMarcus Cousins and Bones Hyland. The latter is about the only other player for the Nuggets that I may play because I think there’s going to be a game or two where his shot falls off the bench and the Nuggets wind up keeping him on the floor. If they get down 2-0, I wouldn’t even be shocked if he draws a start. The only question for Denver slates is “can I afford to play Jokic without ruining my lineup” for the duration of this series.

Series Pick

Adam – Warriors in 6 (likely 5 but I can’t do that to my guy Jokic)

Ghost – Warriors in 6

Dallas Mavericks (4) vs. Utah Jazz (5)

Mavericks – This series took a crappy turn on the last day of the regular season when Luka Doncic hurt his quad and is out for Game 1 and almost certainly more than that. The average return from a quad injury in the NBA is 16 days, which is a lot longer than this series may go if there is no Luka. From the fantasy side of things, Spencer Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson are going to be primary targets because they have to pick up a ton in this offense. Losing a player like Luka who had a usage rate near 40% just opens the door to so much production. Dinwiddie has the edge in the sample since the trade deadline with a 32.% usage rate and 1.29 FPPM, but Brunson is still strong at 29.4% and 1.15. Maxi Kleber was the only other player that was over 0.90 for the FPPM in that sample and he’s been battling the injury bug coming down the stretch. You could maybe twist my arm into a cheap Reggie Bullock as the last man in because they’re going to need scoring but he does literally nothing else. Dorian Finney-Smith will have a game or two where he hits some threes and has value because he plays so many minutes, but the offense runs differently with no Luka. The passing as a whole is simply not the same and while that is obvious, this is going to be tough for the Mavericks to stick in these games. I’m mostly going to stick with Dinwiddie and Brunson with the preference toward Dinwiddie. They do like driving to the hoop at 24 drives per game combined but they’ll need that mid-range game going because Rudy Gobert is at his best when he can stick right by the hoop to defend.

Jazz – It still surprises me that the Jazz ended the season with the best offensive rating in basketball since their offense is somewhat one-dimensional Ask Gobert if you don’t believe me. He’s not a world-beater offensively but they don’t take enough advantage of him down low and he should be able to dominate the likes of Kleber and Dwight Powell in this series. The biggest question is if he gets enough work on the offensive side of things to make it worth playing him and that may wind up being no on most slates. Donovan Mitchell should have a field day driving to the basket because Dallas was only 14th in points allowed in the paint and Mitchell drove 15.2 times per game. He was also top-five in attempts per game from beyond the arc and this postseason is make or break for this version of the Jazz. The pressure is on, especially with Luka out and I would expect Mitchell to rise to the challenge (unless he’s already set on bailing). The trio of Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Jordan Clarkson will be choices as lineup fillers, but keep in mind these teams played at the bottom eight paces all year. They aren’t pushing the ball up and down the floor and Dallas was dead last. Without Doncic, that should only get worse because they need to drag Utah into the mud to win games 100-98 as opposed to anything else. Both teams were also in the top 10 in defensive rating, so this series is not going to have a bounty of fantasy options most nights.

Series Picks

Adam – Jazz in 5 if Luka doesn’t play at all, Jazz in 6 if he makes a comeback

Ghost – Jazz in 6

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/10

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/10

We’ve come to the last day of the regular season in the NBA and some teams have a little bit to play for, even though every team has locked in a playoff slot in some format. It’s going to make the day tricky as far as who we need to target so let’s talk about it in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/10!

Early Slate

Note – Today is far more about who’s got something to play for and who’s active as opposed to metrics. Therefore, the article will be a little bit skimpier because so many guys will be sitting out tonight.

The easy slate is the one I’m most interested in playing because every game has a team that is definitely trying to win. The Brooklyn Nets, Cleveland Cavaliers, Atlanta Hawks, and the Charlotte Hornets are the four teams in the play-in tournament in the East and they are all playing in this time slot. The Nets and Cavs are seven and eight heading into tip, one game ahead of Atlanta and Charlotte.

Hornets – The team is in full health outside of Gordon Hayward and I’d be mostly focused on the main three players here in LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, and Terry Rozier. Washington is sitting mostly everyone and they are in the bottom eight in defensive rating with everyone active, so this is a good spot for the Hornets.

Nets – We know the drill by now in that Kevin Durant is one of the best players in basketball and I tend to go with him when deciding between investing in him or Kyrie Irving. All the Nets have to do is beat the Pacers and they finish seventh, so they would host the seven/eight playoff game and the Pacers have a defensive rating over 120 since the traded deadline. Andre Drummond should be able to hammer this undersized frontcourt even in limited minutes and the double-double bonus is well within reach.

Cavs – This is one interesting game and we need to see what the Milwaukee Bucks do. Technically, they should want to lose this game to not sit in the two seed because that would likely match them up with the Nets in the first round. If the Bucks sit their guys (everyone is questionable), I’ll be more interested in the Cleveland side and we’ll have plenty of value like Jordan Nwora from the Bucks. They could also decide they don’t care who they play in the first round and play everyone, which would change the slate.

Hawks – This is the best opponent on the slate because the Rockets have played at a top-three pace with a bottom-three defensive rating all year long. Enter Trae Young with a shot at moving up to the seven/eight matchup, but this is where it gets tough. If the Nets and Cavs are both up big in the third quarter, you could see Atlanta pull the starter early because their game wouldn’t matter. My main goal for this slate is to play Young, KD, and use values from the Wizards and Bucks to fill things out.

Main Slate

Three teams likely put forth their best foot on this slate in the Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, and the Utah Jazz. The Mavs and Warriors are fighting for the three seed and Dallas could win but would need Golden State to lose against the Pelicans to take over the third seed. That’s an issue because the Pelicans can’t move so they may not play their regular staters. That scenario is why I’m hesitant on any Denver Nuggets player as well. Even if they play, they need to win and the Jazz would have to lose to the Trail Blazers for Denver to get up to the five seed. This set of games all happen at 9:30 so the in-game implications are impossible to guess before tip. I’d mostly focus on Utah, Dallas, and Golden State in the late portion and we still need to know if Never is even trying to play anyone.

Lastly, the Celtics and the 76ers both could use a win so we should get their starters through most of the game. The hiccup is if Milwaukee has already lost, one of those teams would have to decide if they want to play to win or stick Milwaukee at the two. It’s something we’ll need to monitor heading into lock and what they want to do.

The Chicago Bulls can’t move and are stuck in the six seed and because of that, they are sitting their starters. Players like Ayo Dosunmu and Patrick Williams are likely going to be chalk and the model will guide us as they take on the Timberwolves. The flip side of this game will be popular as well because Karl-Anthony Towns is out so Naz Reid and others are going to be a strong value. Additionally, D’Angelo Russell and Patrick Beverly are questionable so Minnesota will likely punt this game. It’s going to be where most of the cheap plays come from on this slate.

If you’re playing tonight, be prepared for late-breaking news about who’s sitting out. There are a lot of teams that are stuck in their seed like Memphis, Phoenix, Los Angeles (already sitting guys out), Toronto, Miami, and San Antonio. Things will surely change and this slate is going to be decided in Discord for the most part, with a focus on the Chicago/Minnesota game. The studs to focus the builds on are Luka Doncic and Joel Embiid provided Philly plays hard tonight.

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/10

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/10

Early Slate

Main Slate

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/10

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/10

Early Slate

Main Slate

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/9

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/9

We only have three games tonight as the NBA season is just about to wrap up and get us into the playoffs. Tonight’s slate is not one that has any teams that need to play hard, which could lead this one to be a tricky slate. Motivations are in question but there is still money to be made in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/9!

Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”

Ghost: Balanced; the only studs on this slate are Paul George and Ja Morant, who makes his return to the Grizzlies lineup after a lengthy absence.

Adam: You really don’t have a choice but to go mostly balanced because on DraftKings, there is no player over $10,000 and Paul George is only $9,300. It’s possible Ja Morant plays but there’s no telling how many minutes he’d play with nothing for the Grizzlies to achieve. At least with George, he’s facing Sacramento and is still logging 30 minutes to get into playing shape.

Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”

Ghost: Paul George.

Adam: Paul George.

Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”

Ghost: George is a priority over Morant, but you can’t go wrong with either one.

Adam: That’s really not an option today given the slate context, but Morant would be the closest to fitting the bill.

Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”

Ghost: Zach Collins grades out tremendously well in my model as a value play, while both George and Morant are tied for the top-scoring player on the slate.

Adam: Zach Collins. The Spurs are sitting a lot of their starters once again and that includes Jakob Poeltl so Collins is in line for big minutes at just $4,500 tonight against a Warriors team that struggles with big men from time to time.

Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”

Ghost: Jordan Poole drops 25/5/5 en route to a Warriors route of the Spurs.
Adam:Paul George hits six 3-pointers and scores over 30 points tonight even if he’s not required to play more than 30 minutes.

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/10

Early Slate

Main Slate

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/10

Early Slate

Main Slate

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/10

Early Slate

Main Slate

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/9

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