NASCAR DFS

Welcome to another edition of Formula 1 Race Week: Miami Grand Prix 2023. Formula 1 comes stateside for the first time of the 2023 season, as the grid runs around the Hard Rock Stadium, home of the Miami Dolphins, for 52 laps in anger. Just like last week Sergio Perez’s Red Bull sits atop of the starting order, as chaos reigned supreme on qualifying on Saturday.

Free Practice 3 really demonstrated how wide open this race was going to be as top teams struggled with tyre wear, and traffic, not to mention the tight corners that caught a few drivers out.

As qualifying continued the underutilized Miami circuit came to life. The track gained more grip every lap, and as the laps quickened, the speeds came down. teams that did not look competitive in the practice sessions started showing pace, and some teams got caught out by the ever-changing conditions. One team that seemed to not be affected was…

Team Breakdowns

Red Bull

The Red Bull rocket ship powers down range as it shows its class once again. However it’s not the Red Bull one would expect to be on top, Sergio Perez ($11,600) starts on the pole as his love affair with street circuits continues. I’m sure Sergio will take it as his teammate Max Verstappen ($14,600) starts in P8 due to Charles Leclerc putting his Ferrari in the wall with less than 2 minutes left in Q3. Sergio demonstrated his ability in these kinds of circuits all season long, but I would be remiss to mention he played second fiddle to his teammate all weekend up to that point.

Playing Max or Sergio is a decision that is going to shape your lineup. Both have merit to be played, as does Red Bull ($13,300) in the Constructor spot. What makes Max more difficult to play this week is that during practice a trend was noticeable, any car that went off the racing line found itself on a dirty circuit, and as drivers put the throttle down, their offline car would lose the back end, spinning out. Max is in another league, so if there was a driver to make this track his own and cut through the field from P9, it’s him.

I have to give the politician answer here, having exposure to both, maybe even 50/50 is a strategy the field will definitely implement, and it makes sense. In Multi entry GPPs have exposure to both, in single entries, you have to make a choice, and what you like in the other 5 positions will dictate your choice, as those other 5 spots are up in the air as well.

Ferrari

A team I probably won’t find much in my lineups is Ferrari ($9900). Charles LeClerc ($9800) starts in P7 and Carlos Sainz ($7600) starts in P3. Carlos has every opportunity for a podium finish while Charles seems to go for broke in qualifying. A sprinkle or two might be in order, but the Scuderia is not one I will be focusing on this weekend in DFS.

Mercedes

Oh Mercedes, how you have fallen. Lewis Hamilton ($9000) and George Russell ($8400) looked well off the pace all weekend and further demonstrated that in qualifying. I’d expect George to stay ahead of his teammate, but that is a premium to pay for those 5 beat-teammate points and what should be a top-10 finish. I do think Mercedes ($9500) goes for a long run, 1 stop strategy, but even that might not be the move for a car that’s struggling with tyre wear and proper setup.

Aston Martin

Lance Stroll ($6400) made things easy on us as he failed to reach Q2, he starts in P18. His team “got greedy” and kept back a new set of soft tyres as they imagined they would advance to the later stages of qualifying easily. Lance’s Aston is capable of taking advantage of his P18 start and should be able to pass a good amount of cars. Lance comes with risk so keep that in mind.

His teammate Fernando Alonso ($9400) is in a prime position in the top 5. The track is difficult to pass on, and Fernando is just as difficult to pass. I like Fernando to beat his teammate, finish in the top 5 and score maximum points in his Aston Martin ($8900).

Alpine

Alpine ($5200) bounced back from a forgettable Baku and is clearly in contention for the mid-range battle this weekend. Both Alpines piloted by Pierre Gasly ($5800) and Esteban Ocon ($5400) showed out this weekend and were comfortably in the top 10 throughout practice and qualifying sessions. Alpine makes for a solid value constructor and both drivers are firmly in play.

McLaren

Lando Norris ($6000) and Oscar Piastri ($4800) look like underperformers in McLaren. Not much there in terms of DFS value.

Alfa Romeo

Alfa came into the weekend looking off, but as Saturday went on, it was clear the Alfa Romeo ($3900) was taking to the circuit well. Valtteri Bottas ($4600) qualified P 10 with his teammate, Zhou Guanyu ($4200) in P14. This race is a pure risk/reward and Bottas qualified in the top 10 last year and finished P7, he’s a worthy risk in this race.

Williams

Alex Albon ($5200) gained 9 positions here last year and was quick all weekend. Starting in P11 he might be thin in terms of DFS value but worthy of a sprinkle. His teammate Logan Sargent ($3000) comes home to race in his home state of Florida. Outside of that, Logan Sargent is not much of a play in this race other than being the bare minimum.

Alpha Tauri

While the F1 world was singing the praises of Yuki Tsunoda ($4400) his teammate Nyck Debris, err DeVries ($3200), came to race this weekend. I doubt that matters much though, as neither two are priorities as the AlphaTauri ($3000) is a junk of a race car.

Haas

While Nico Hulkenberg ($3600) was cruising in the top half of the grid all weekend, it was his teammate Kevin Magnussen ($3800) who qualified better on Saturday. Both are in play, especially in GPPs.

Constructors

Pair Red Bull ($13,300) with Max and Sergio. Ferrari ($9900) for some differentiation. Outside of those two, Alpine ($5200) looks like good value. Red Bull should continue to be the highest DFS scorer and a top priority in all formats.

If you have any questions or if you’d like to talk strategy @tcuz86 in Discord.

Welcome to another edition of Formula 1 Race Week: Azerbaijan Grand Prix 2023.

It’s going to be a quick article from me, so if you have any questions definitely get to me in Discord @tcuz86

Team Breakdowns

Red Bull

Red Bull- Max Verstappen ($14,400) starts 2nd on Sunday in the rocket ship Red Bull. Charles might sit on the pole, but the Red Bull is still the class of the field. Max and Charles registered the exact same qualifying lap time-wise, so there is nothing between them. Do what you want with Max, go all in, and play him in the driver spot with Red Bull at the constructor. However you want to do it, just make sure you play him.

Sergio Perez ($11,400) is an interesting play to me, personally, I won’t lock button Max, so wherever I don’t have Max I want to have Sergio as he’s in the sister rocket ship. Pair him with Red Bull and go from there.

Ferrari

Charles Leclerc ($8,800) sits on the pole and has a good history here at Baku. He can realistically lead laps, but as we saw in today’s sprint race, and last year’s race, the Red Bull can get him. Ferrari has a good chance of maximizing points here, so having exposure to a potential race winner on the pole is a good way to go.

Charles’ teammate, Carlos Sainz ($7,400) needs Charles to DNF or something wild to happen. It’s always a possibility but not something anyone should go all in on.

Mercedes

Should be a lonely race for Lewis Hamilton ($9600) and George Russel ($8000), they don’t have the car to compete against the Ferrari or Red Bull, so they should mix it up with Aston Martin. Neither is a high priority.

Aston Martin

Aston Martin seems to be having a DRS issue all weekend. They say they fix it on both cars, but then we don’t see the rear wing flap opening up in DRS zones. Considering the price point of Fernando Alonso ($10,200) and Lance Stroll ($6600) it feels like paying a premium for ok points. I’d advise looking elsewhere this weekend.

Alpine

it’s just Esteban Ocon ($5600) for me this weekend. Pierre Gasly was on fire on Friday, the team got the car repaired, only for Pierre to put it in a wall in qualifying. He can definitely overtake some cars, but he would need Ocon to DNF and gain 8 spots to get into the points. That is a lot of factors to overcome at ($6,200)

McLaren

McLaren brings a new floor and race track-specific new bits to their chassis and it’s definitely made the McLaren Mercedes come to life. Lando Norris ($5,800) is always going to be the preferred Mclaren driver, however, his teammate, Oscar Piastri ($5,200) should not be outright dismissed. They don’t have the upside to playing them in the same lineup, but being exposed to the upgraded McLaren seems like a fine way to go this weekend. 

Alfa

Alfa has not shown anything at all this weekend. In the bottom teams during practice, bottom during qualifying, and bottom in the sprint race. Zhou Guanyu ($4,400) did gain places during the sprint race and at his price point if he’s a driver I need to click on to run out a few lineups, I would have no problem with that. Also, GPP winning lineups had Zhou in the Captain spot last race. Valtteri is not a priority for me this weekend. 

Williams

Williams- Alex Albon ($4800) qualified in P13 and was mixing it up in the top 10 during the sprint race. Baku has a lot of straights where the low downforce Williams thrives. I like Albon’s chances to maximize points, he would be a heavy exposure candidate if his price tag was a bit cheaper. His teammate Logan Sargent ($3200) is someone I’m struggling to place. His price tag is exceptional, qualified in P15, and got caught out by the Ferraris during qualifying, but it did not hurt him too badly. It’s his price tag that’s the intriguing point. At ($3200) we don’t need him to do much, even if he falls back, at his price, your lineups should be able to recover. I’d much prefer another sub $3.5k driver but if Logan is someone you need to make a lineup work, click away.

Alpha Tauri

After qualifying Yuki Tsunoda looked like a top option for me, good price tag at ($4000) qualified in P8, good track history. However, after looking into the results of other teams, I am concerned about Yuki falling back significantly. I will have some, but not a driver I am all in on this. His teammate on the other hand is the polar opposite. At the bare minimum, Nyck De Vries ($3000) can’t hurt your lineups. Qualifying in p20, there’s nothing that can happen that would cause De Vries to torpedo your lineups, a high-exposure candidate to say the least.

Haas

I like the Hass this weekend for cheap value plays. Hulkenberg ($3800) and Magnussen ($3400) qualified in P17 and P18 respectively so playing them is no issue. Hulkenberg has a history of high tyre degradation so maybe Magnussen ends up as the better play once the race is over, but either way, they are a good last-guy-in plays.

Constructors

Red Bull Racing ($13,200) or Ferrari ($8500) for me. If you’re playing a bunch of lineups, Mercedes paired with one of their drivers if things fall that way, McLaren ($4500) for a cheap way to get top 10 finishers, or Williams ($3100) to get wild with it. 

If you have any questions or if you’d like to talk strategy @tcuz86 in Discord.