MMA

UFC Fight Night Breakdown: Edwards vs Muhammad
We are back for a thirteen-fight UFC Fight Night card with Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad headlining the event. This week’s main card will consist of six fights while the prelims will carry the other seven. Our highest-priced fighter on DraftKings this week is Angela Hill who is also the largest betting favorite at –375 currently. Last week was tough for me because my highest-owned fighter was Petr Yan and well, he got disqualified. Another surprise came last week as all scheduled bouts stayed together. That has been a rarity as of late so be sure to pop in the Discord Chat rooms to stay updated on the latest news. Our WinDaily staff members including myself will be in there to answer questions and keep you updated on all situations.

For my article, I will be referring to DraftKings pricing. This week we will breakdown the Main Event on the evening Edwards vs Muhammad. After that, it is time for my top three fights that I believe have a great chance to end early to maximize value. Time for this week’s picks and hopefully a better result Saturday night!

UFC Fight Night Breakdown: Edwards vs Muhammad

Belal Muhammad ($7,200) vs Leon Edwards ($9,000)

The first thing I want to note here is that Muhammad will be without his head coach in the corner this weekend as he tested positive for Covid. If I’m being honest, I don’t love this main event. Edwards has been in two main events in his last three fights scoring 68.4 and 99.1 fantasy points in those victories. His strikes landed per minute are also down at 2.53. He will sit and pick his shots but doesn’t have that electric power, if he were to get a finish, I think it’s because he picks Muhammad apart. The three takedowns and control time against a great grappler like Rafael Dos Anjos were impressive to me as well.

The week hasn’t started well for Muhammad as I mentioned and he was already the underdog. He is nearly doubling his opponent in strikes landed at 4.86. Edwards is the best opponent Muhammad has faced to this point in his career in my eyes. If his strike defense can stay at 60% against a talented fighter I will be impressed. I think the step-up will be tough for Muhammad this time around I will have about 70% of this fight with 50% of that on Leon Edwards.

Ryan Spann ($7,900) vs Misha Cirkunov ($8,300)

These two fighters are extraordinary to watch with excellent finishing potential. We see Cirkunov come in with 20 career fights and only two going the distance. He is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has shown in by submitting his opponent in the first round in his last two wins. He does contain a positive strike ratio of +1.29 and a great strike defense of 62%. Let’s just cut to the chase, Cirkunov has appeared in the UFC nine times all of which ended early and just two of those fights went past round 1.

Spann has twenty-four fights in his career with only five of those hearing the final bell. In his last fight, Spann was knocked out in round one by Johnny Walker. Spann did however score two knockdowns in that first round. Walker also knocked out Cirkunov in round one two fights ago for Cirkunov. Entering this bout Spann carries a strike ratio of -.15. The Guillotine submission from Spann is something Cirkunov will have to watch out for. It worries me that Cirkunov has been out for about a year and a half but his black belt should allow him to be successful here.
Selection – Misha Cirkunov ($8,300) 1st round submission.

Ray Rodriguez ($7,000) vs Rani Yahya ($9,200)

Yahya enters this bout as one of the largest favorites on the card at –300. He contains a second-degree black belt in BJJ and that shows with 20 of his 26 wins coming via submission. We see more proof as he averages nearly a takedown each round at 2.86 takedowns per 15 minutes. It is unlikely he wins this with striking with his 1.59 strikes landed per minute. He looks to mainly work his BJJ and that should be in his favor in this matchup.

Rodriguez has the last two straight and was submitted in round one in his UFC debut (last fight). We also see him having been finished three times by submission in his career. His takedown defense in his two UFC stat recorded fight is 40%. He has an awful strike ratio of –4.49 in those two fights as well. This will be another tough test for the young Rodriguez and I think he still has a lot to learn and work on.
Selection – Rani Yahya ($9,200) 1st round submission

Gavin Tucker ($7,600) vs Dan Ige ($8,600)

This fight is my favorite fight on the card and I believe it can be high scoring even if it goes the distance. Dan Ige’s last fight was a five-round bout against Calvin Kattar in which he lasts all five rounds. He is a good striker with fast hands but lacks tremendous power, evidence of that with only three knockouts in 18 wins. Ige does contain a black belt in BJJ but failed to record a takedown on nine attempts against Kattar. His two wins before the Kattar fighter were both questionable split decision wins in my eyes.

Tucker’s last fight was a great win over Billy Quarantillo and the two wins before that were third-round submissions. In that fight, I thought Tucker set up his takedowns well which allowed him to record seven of them. Much like Ige, Tucker has his black belt in BJJ. Tucker’s striking is also a well-rounded look at his previous two fights especially against Jaynes where he doubled Jaynes’ output. In my mind, Ige will be the toughest opponent that Tucker has faced to this point. Both fighters have excellent cardio and should be able to duel all 15 minutes if necessary.

Selection – Gavin Tucker ($7,600) 3rd round submission

UFC Fight Night Breakdown: Edwards vs Muhammad

Honorable Mentions:

Nasrat Haqparast – ($9,400)

Manel Kape – ($8,700)

Matthew Semelsberger – ($8,400)

Marcelo Rojo – ($7,100)

Final Thoughts UFC Fight Night Breakdown
This will be a fun card thirteen fight card that has already seen changes occur to it. The bout between Philipe Lins and Ben Rothwell is scratched being replaced by Nasrat Haqparast vs Rafa Garcia. Remember to join the WinDaily staff and me in Discord to stay updated on the latest news. You will find me in there after weigh-ins on Friday and throughout the day until the slate lock on Saturday. I will be going lighter than last week with lineups again saving for an amazing UFC 260 card later this month. I hope you enjoyed this week’s edition of UFC Fight Night breakdown and I appreciate you reading. Would have been a nice week if it weren’t for Petr Yan last week but let’s bounce back and turn those screens green! Good Luck!

We have a spectacular card this weekend with UFC 259 containing three championship fights in Las Vegas. Our card will be a total of fifteen fights, the main card with five fights, prelims containing four fights, and early prelims carrying six bouts. The main event will be for the light heavyweight belt with Jan Blachowicz facing Israel Adesanya. It should be no surprise that Amanda Nunes is the largest betting favorite coming in at –1100. She will also be the highest-priced fighter on DraftKings at a hefty $9,600 price tag. If we keep all fifteen fights on this card (unlikely) it will be a card where you can be different and take chances to win that 200K top prize on DraftKings!

This week Bombcarlo’s UFC 259 Card Breakdown will be unique with three title matches. I will talk about each and give an overview of my thoughts and still give a selection and where I’m at with ownership on those fighters. Then we will get back to normal with the three fights that have high potential to score high or end early. There is no more time to waste before this exciting card, so check out these picks!

Bombcarlo’s UFC 259 Card Breakdown

Light Heavyweight Title
Jan Blachowicz ($7,000) vs Israel Adesanya ($9,200)

The main note for this matchup is that Adesanya is fighting up a weight class here to Light Heavyweight. Jan has won two straight fights by knockout in the first two rounds displaying his power. Adesanya will have to get in and out very quickly which he is capable of doing. One advantage I see for Jan is his blackbelt in BJJ and he could have that extra weight pending what Izzy weighs in at. An 86% takedown defense is astonishing for Adesanya against fighters in his weight class. The speed of Adesanya could be lethal moving up a weight class but so could the added weight and power of Jan. I will have 90% exposure to this matchup and my ownership will be split in half for both fighters.

Women’s Featherweight Title
Megan Anderson ($6,600) vs Amanda Nunes ($9,600)

There is a good reason for Nunes to be a massive favorite for this fight. Her opponent has a strike ratio of –1.12, while Nunes sports a +1.97-strike ratio. Nunes has won 11 straight with eight of those being championship fights. Anderson’s last win on the other hand was against Norma Dumont who was making her UFC debut. In her last two fights, Nunes has recorded six and eight takedowns to dominate those decision wins. It is looking like I will have around 80% exposure to this fight with all shares siding with one of the greatest to do it, Amanda Nunes.

Bantamweight Title
Aljamain Sterling ($7,800) vs Petr Yan ($8,400)

What makes this fight interesting is the pricing which matchups the odds in Vegas where neither fighter is favored right now. This fight will be spectacular and may just win the fight of the night honors. We have Sterling as a long fighter that touches you often but lacks power and we see that with just two knockouts in his MMA career. I do like that Sterling has a black belt in BJJ and just made quick work of Sandhagen with a first-round submission. A submission is the only way Sterling wins in my eyes.

Yan is one of the best switch hitters in MMA and he showed that against Aldo landing 258 total strikes with 194 significant strikes. The takedown and submission worry me for Yan but I will trust his 88% takedown defense.
I will have 100% of this fight due to the pricing, the close matchup, and the extremely tight Vegas odds. I will be targeting 70% Yan and 30% Sterling heading into this weekend.

Bombcarlo’s UFC 259 Card Breakdown

Aalon Cruz ($7,300) vs Uros Medic ($8,900)

Uros Medic is making his UFC debut in this fight but comes in with a 6-0 record all ending in finishes. He is a great striker with power and we’ve seen that with two straight first-round finishes. Medic will throw spinning attacks and has a dangerous left hand that comes right down the middle. My main concern for Medic is the level of competition he has faced isn’t great. A seven-inch reach advantage is no joke for Cruz although it isn’t very often, we see him use it.

For Cruz, he is a big body 155 that is moving up a weight class where Medic is moving down. My concerns with Medic are the 39% strike accuracy and the first-round loss to Spike Carlyle. Medic has the power and flashy moves which is almost exactly what Spike brings to the table. If Cruz can use his reach advantage to touch Medic and keep him from closing the distance often is how I see him winning. I will post an update on this one after weigh-ins I want to see how Medic looks coming down from 170 pounds to 155.

Selection – Uros Medic ($8,900) 1st round KO

Kennedy Nzechukwu ($7,200) vs Carlos Ulberg ($9,000)

We have a very interesting fight here with Carlos Ulberg making his UFC debut. Ulberg was a great kickboxer before joining the UFC and only has five MMA fights. Ulberg has ended his last fight early in round one. He has ended his last three kickboxing bouts before the final bell as well. Ulberg does show good head movement and the ability to keep his distance in the cage. He trains out of City Kickboxing with Israel Adesanya which should be noted. Ulberg will do well when he can worry about just the striking of his opponent as he can do here.

When evaluating Nzechukwu I see that he holds out his left hand to keep his distance in check. A strike accuracy of 39% is a low number facing Ulberg who can keep his distance with his kickboxing abilities. The good things for Nzechukwu are his six-inch reach advantage and the actual MMA experience that he has. Let’s add one more thing to that list and that is massive power he has a huge frame hence the reach advantage. I will have a few shares of Nzechukwu heading into the weekend but the majority of my shares will be on Ulberg.

Selection – Carlos Ulberg ($9,000) 1st round KO

Thiago Santos ($7,600) vs Aleksandar Rakic ($8,600)

This should be a thriller in the light heavyweight division. Looking into Rakic he is a very athletic light heavyweight with a lean body type. He shows great power in his striking with four knockdowns in his last five fights. The strike landed to absorbed ratio is sitting at an impressive +2.67 heading into this fight. If Santos can get his leg kicks going again Rakic is heavy on his feet and those Santos leg kicks would be damaging.

The leg kicks declining for Santos could be a result of the leg injuries he accrued from the Jon Jones fight. He is still an excellent striker that has scored four knockdowns in four fights one of those coming in the loss to Glover Teixeira. Santos has a striking ratio of +2.04 to solidify his striking ability. If he could get back to landing those heavy-leg kicks, I would like him against Rakic here. Both fighters can end this fight at any time and I will have significant ownership to this fight. Rakic is coming off a dominating win against Anthony Smith but this will likely be his toughest test. Santos has had about the toughest three guys in the light heavyweight class in his last three fights

Selection – Thiago Santos – ($7,600) 2nd round KO

Honorable Mentions:

Islam Makhachev – ($9,400)

Sean Brady – ($9,300)

Casey Kenney – ($8,100)

Joseph Benavidez – ($7,900)

Bombcarlo’s UFC 259 Card Breakdown

Final Thoughts
That will wrap up this amazing card and edition of Bombcarlo’s UFC 259 Card Breakdown. It should be a fantastic fifteen fights if we have zero cancellations leading into the weekend. For UFC cards the Discord Chat rooms are extremely important due to Covid and late fight scratches. There has been at least one fight per week thrown out for several weeks in a row. In Discord, you will find WinDaily staff members including myself answering any questions you made have. It is also a fantastic place to keep up with any news that breaks for this week’s slate. We will be without NBA this weekend so I will be playing more than normal for this card. Good luck this weekend and let’s make it a payday!

Last week’s card was absolute fireworks having many early finishes occur. For this week’s UFC Fight Night Breakdown, I would expect a decline in early finishes. We have a smaller card this Saturday as we have eleven fights to choose from. If the trend continues, we will lose one of these fights later in the week which makes Discord Chat important. This week’s largest favorite on the card is Angela Hill who is a –370 favorite in Vegas. However, the highest-priced fighter on DraftKings is Magomed Ankalaev at $9,300 and a –355 favorite. Our main event on this card will be between two rising heavyweight contenders in Ciryl Gane and Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

In this article, I will look to breakdown my three favorite fights that have the best odds to finish early or score high based upon my research. I will also breakdown this week’s Heavyweight main event. For this article, I will be referring to DraftKings pricing. Time to dig into this week’s top three fights to target!

UFC Fight Night Breakdown Gane vs Rozenstruik

Ciryl Gane ($9,000) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik ($7,200)

We have a fun main event that I am confident will not hear the final bell. Each of these fighters only has one fight that has gone the distance. Both fighter’s most recent fight was against Junior Dos Santos and both secured second-round knockouts. Looking at Rozenstruik we get a fighter with massive one-punch power to turn anyone’s lights out in a flash. He loves to strike and has the striking advantage there in my eyes. If Gane goes for a takedown we see a solid takedown defense from Rozenstruik at 75%.

Gane has looked great in his first four UFC fights all victories three of which ended before the final bell. Gane has had impressive striking numbers with a +3.66 striking ratio due to his 75% strike defense. The only fight Gane has gotten a takedown was against Don’tale Mayes where he recorded three. This fight against these two Heavyweights will be amazing. I will have 100% exposure to this fight but will be at 50% Gane and 50% Rozenstruik.

Nikita Krylov ($6,900) vs Magomed Ankalaev ($9,300)

These two fighters should bring excitement to the Co-main event. Krylov has a record of 27-7 with only one win and one loss needing the judge’s scores. I am surprised with the salaries here, Krylov is no joke with his +2.09 striking numbers. His strike defense of 41% is my main concern here. He does have knockouts via kicks as well and I think he can keep Ankalaev at his distance if he wants. Ankalaev’s only loss came by submission and Krylov is averaging 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

There is a good reason for the hype train behind Ankalaev as he has won five straight with four of those by way of knockout. He has two straight first-round knockouts and five of his six UFC fights have ended early. Ankalaev has impressive striking numbers as well with a +2.22-strike landed to absorbed ratio. That strike defense is much better than Krylov’s at 68%. He should avoid the majority of Krylov’s takedown attempts with his takedown defense of 85%. I will be backing the second largest betting favorite on this card in Ankalaev.

Selection – Magomed Ankalaev ($9,300) 1st round KO

Kevin Croom ($7,400) vs Alex Caceres ($8,800)

Each of these fighters enters this fight with twelve losses and both have been finished in eight of those losses. We will start with Croom as he did get an impressive first-round victory in his last fight before having it overturned due to a positive marijuana test. Croom enters this bout with 10 submission finishes and Caceres has been finished by submission in seven of his losses. The striking for Croom is shown in his last fight with an early knockdown of Roberts before the Guillotine finish.

Lately, Caceres striking has improved in my eyes throwing more combinations. He does carry a +1.24-striking ratio in his UFC career in large part due to 65% strike defense. Caceres does not have that one much knockout power. He pumps out those jabs and looks to set up his combinations. Neither fighter has faced fierce competition but I give the edge to Caceres in that department. The salary of Caceres makes this an easy decision for me, I will take Croom and his ten submissions.

Selection – Kevin Croom ($7,400) 2nd round submission

Montana De La Rosa ($7,800) vs Mayra Bueno Silva ($8,400)

These fighters both struggle on their feet and with striking. Start with De La Rosa who carries a -.35-strike ratio to go along with a lousy 35% strike accuracy. De La Rosa holds her hands low and punches just to set up the takedown and forces takedown attempts. She will throw out punches and look desperate for a takedown look at the 30% takedown accuracy to see she is not extraordinarily successful at it. With eight of her 11 wins coming by submission, she has shown once she gets it to the mat it could be game over.

It will be tough to get Bueno Silva to the mat and even if De La Rosa does that the mat is Silva’s strong suit as well. Bueno Silva comes into this bout with a –2.3 striking ratio, the majority of that came from one fight though. The other three fights on the UFC record all finished in the first round by submission. Silva has shown good defensive grappling as her two UFC wins by submission came without her recording a takedown. The near two submission attempts per 15 minutes are standing out for Silva as well.

Selection – Mayra Bueno Silva 2nd round Submission

Honorable Mentions

Sabina Mazo – ($8,900)

Ramazan Kuramagomedov – ($8,300)

Maxim Grishin – ($7,700)

Thiago Moises – ($7,500)

UFC Fight Night Breakdown Gane vs Rozenstruik

Final Thoughts
That will wrap It up for this eleven-fight card and UFC Fight Night Breakdown Blaydes vs Lewis. Discord Chat is extremely important for UFC as we had two fights canceled after weigh-ins and one canceled during the fighter’s walkout. The WinDaily staff and I hang out in discord and break any news that arises or answering any questions you may have. I will be in Discord after weigh-ins on Friday and Saturday afternoon until slate lock. Magomed Ankalaev is the highest-priced fighter on DraftKings and will be my highest-owned fighter. Check out our other UFC and NBA articles for tonight and watch your screen turn green! Enjoy your last weekend of February!

Bombcarlo’s DFS Breakdown UFC 258 Usman vs Burns 

Welcome back for another fantastic weekend of fights with UFC 258 Usman vs Burns. The eleven-bout event will be headlined with a clash of two teammates fighting for Welterweight gold. Another note is there are three lady fights this week including the Co-Main event. Usman comes into this clash being a -275 favorite looking for his third straight title defense. Our heaviest favorite on this card is Belal Muhammad at a -480 in Vegas. However, Rodolfo Vieira is the highest priced fighter on DraftKings at $9,300. Discord Chat is always important for UFC as any fight can get cancelled anytime nowadays. We have already seen evidence of that early this week as Jimmie Rivera vs Pedro Munhoz will already be moved to a later date. In Bombcarlo’s DFS Breakdown UFC 258 Usman vs Burns I will breakdown my top three fights that have early finish potential along with the main event.  Enough jabbing around let’s get into this Championship card breakdown! 

Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns 

First off, this is going to be a hard fight to predict because these two were teammates prior to training for this fight. These two trained together before knowing this fight was a possibility at some point and Burns said earlier this week that Usman already knows he can submit him. Really that comes as no surprise as Burns holds a second-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. The biggest problem I feel Burns will face is the hands of Usman as Kamaru holds a +2.27-strike landed to absorbed ratio. Burns is still positive figures at +.41 but not near the level of Usman’s. Kamaru has a black belt himself and a 100% takedown defense according to UFC stats so it will be tough for Burns. I will have 100% of this and it should be a hell of a fight! My exposure will likely be 70% Usman and 30% Burns. 

Jim Miller ($7,300) vs Bobby Green ($8,900) 

This is a matchup of two aging UFC veterans. It is clear that Miller would have the advantage on the ground with his black belt in jiu jitsu and Division one wrestling resume. We could also look at his 18 submission victories or his near two submission attempts per 15 minutes. Miller does a nice job as throwing punches just to set up his submissions specifically his chokes. I don’t think Miller really has to worry about the power of green as he hasn’t finished a fight early in over seven years.  

Green likes to strike we see that with his +1.85 strikes landed to absorbed ratio. I just think he lacks power to end fights. His last knockout as I mentioned was seven years ago and if we look for another knockout, we would have to go back ten years. The last six victories for Green have all been by decision and that dates back to 2013. I can’t pay this price for Green as a decision win here won’t pay this price tag. A decision win for Miller will likely still result in him hitting value with his grappling and DraftKings new scoring for grapplers. Not saying this is a clear cut early finish I just like Miller to get the win here and pay off his cheap price tag. 

Selection – Jim Miller ($7,000) 2^nd  round submission 

UFC 258 Usman vs Burns

Philip Rowe ($8,200) vs Gabe Green ($8,000) 

Each of these fighters only have one career fight that heard the final bell which screams fight of the night potential. Let’s start with Gabe Green who has finished all his wins early, three by knockout and six by submission. His striking in his UFC debut (which was on short notice) was impressive as he struck with Daniel Rodriguez who is known as a striker. In that fight he landed 8.47 strikes per minute which shows the volume and stamina is there as that fight went to a decision. 

Philip Rowe has also finished all of his victories early with three knockouts and four by submission. His strike defense is pretty shaky to me though and I think that gets him in trouble even with a near seven-inch reach advantage. In his previous fight on the Contender Series Rowe was actually knocked down early in that fight before bouncing back to get a knockout win. That fight against Shahbazyan was the only win Rowe has against a fighter with an above .500 record. Rowe has finish potential so I wouldn’t rule a win out I just think it’s too early/quick for him. Regardless I really think having a piece of this fight is important. 

Selection – Gabe Green ($8,000) 2^nd round KO 

Rodolfo Vieira ($9,300) vs Anthony Hernandez ($7,200) 

It is clear where Vieira has an advantage coming into most of his fights and that’s on the mat. The man is a multi-time Brazilian Jiu Jitsu World Champion and has submitted both of his UFC opponents before the end of round two. Vieira comes into this clash 7-0 with all seven wins resulting in an early finish six of those by submission.  

Hernandez doesn’t mind grappling either but it probably isn’t recommended against this opponent. He throws more strikes than Vieira but Hernandez gets hit more than he throws with a strike landed to absorbed ratio of –1.58. Coming into this fight he attains a record of 7-2 with six early finishes five of those by way of submission. Only one of Hernandez’s nine career fights have gone the distance. Once this gets to the ground it should be over in favor of Vieira he’s shown that with submissions in three straight fights none of which went past round two. 

Selection – Rodolfo Vieira ($9,300) 1^st round Submission 

Honorable Mentions:

Belal Muhammad – ($9,200)

Julian Marquez – $8,700)

Polyana Viana – ($7,600)

Ian Heinisch – ($7,400)

Bombcarlo’s DFS Breakdown UFC 258 Usman vs Burns

Final Thoughts 

I’m really gearing up for a crazy next two months or so of UFC cards including UFC 258 Usman vs Burns. We have some amazing cards to look forward too with loads of title fights in the near future. Discord Chat is important for UFC as we’ve seen fights get cancelled shortly before lineups lock. In Discord you will find Win Daily  staff members and myself as we answer any questions you may have or provide updates on our top plays. I will be in Discord after weigh ins as I do evaluate them and we need to make sure both in the Championship fight do make weight. Before lock on Saturday will be my most active time in Discord this week so feel free to jump in and ask questions. Enjoy your Saturday night and hopefully we helped you knockout a huge tournament! 

UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov 

We were able to enjoy a week off from UFC last week after three fight cards in seven days. After a short layoff were back with a solid fight card this week before we finally see the Usman vs Burns title fight. This week’s card UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov has been altered already as two fights on the main card have changed. It has been difficult to get an article this week as DraftKings is waiting to add some fighters when fights are confirmed by the UFC. On DraftKings the highest priced fighter is Cory Sandhagen although Cody Stamann is the largest betting favorite at -500. In this article I will be strictly looking for fights that I believe end early to maximize my ceiling on DraftKings. You especially want to look into that with the big early knockout bonus they started offering after the new year. For this card I will breakdown my three favorite fights to target and evaluate the main event.  

UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov 

Alistair Overeem vs Alexander Volkov 

This fight is bound to be fireworks, these two combined bring in 66 total finishes before the final bell! I will have 100 exposure to his fight likely to lean 60% Volkov and 40% Overeem. I feel these two are very evenly matched together that’s why my exposure is close and might change to 50-50. Overeem fights typically don’t need judges, in 65 career fights just eight have gone the distance. In 15 of his 18 losses Overeem didn’t see the final bell which is my biggest concern.

I like Volkov on the feet he has been doing well at picking his shots and staying out of range. His strikes landed to strikes absorbed numbers show that with a +2.23-striking ratio. My concern for Volkov is getting beat on the mat where Overeem has 17 submissions finishes. These two Heavyweights will settle this without needing the judges and that’s always a recipe for an amazing main event! 

UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov

Justin Jaynes ($7,000) vs Devonte Smith ($9,200) 

We have an entertaining matchup here against two pure strikers. Neither of these fighters have landed a successful takedown according to UFC stats. These two fighters look for that knockout bonus and throw with heavy hands. Smith has yet to see judges’ score cards as all of his professional fights have ended early. All of his previous three fights failed to make it past round one.

Jaynes has finished 13 of his 16 wins inside the distance as well. Two of Jaynes last three fights were stopped in the first round but all three of those never saw the final bell. I will roll with Jaynes here due to the massive salary savings. I do feel he has the knockout upside and that he has the advantage the longer this fight goes. If you can afford Smith he is a solid play as well holding massive early finish upside and he’s proven it. I’ll have shares of both but love the savings on Jaynes. 

Selection – Justin Jaynes ($7,000) 1^st round KO 

Diego Ferreira ($8,200) vs Beneil Dariush ($8,000) 

Both of these fighters have really improved their boxing in their recent fights. Dariush has three straight finishes before the second round was over. Two of those were by knockouts showing his boxing improvement. I give Dariush a slight edge in the grappling department mainly due to his defensive grappling and 80% takedown defense. Although Ferreira has improved his boxing, I don’t think he offers major knockout power with just three knockouts in 17 wins. I personally think this is an awesome matchup stylistically and has potential for fight of the night. With that mentioned I do believe one of these two can pay off their salary if this goes to a decision. I will have plenty of exposure to this fight for that given reason. 

Selection – Beneil Dariush ($8,000) 2^nd round KO 

Mike Rodriguez ($9,000) vs Danilo Marques ($7,200) 

It looks to me that this fight is getting over looked and rightfully so with several other heavier favorites on this card. Marques really hasn’t beaten anyone and his lone UFC win was against Khadis Ibragimov whom went 0-4 in his UFC tenure. That was an ugly fight and was painful to watch although Marques got the win. Rodriquez has power and massive 1^st round finish potential. All eleven of his victories have come without a judge’s decision. The 5.19 significant strikes landed per minute and 59% strike accuracy is a big reason for the striking favoring Rodriquez. Marques has an edge on the mat and will likely attempt to get this fight on the ground. I believe Rodriquez will be able to use his kicks to avoid getting taken down by Marques. I have Marques getting put to sleep by the hands of Rodriquez. 

Selection – Mike Rodriquez ($9,000) 1^st round KO 

Honorable Mentions

Timur Valiev – ($9,300)

Molly McCann – ($8,500)

Manel Kape – ($7,900)

Seungwoo Choi – ($7,100)

UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov 

Final Thoughts 

Thanks for reading my article UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov breakdown. It has been a crazy week of alterations to the card and that could continue. With COVID impacting many fights we could see some cancellations or changes prior to Saturday yet. Jump into Discord Chat where we keep you updated on all incoming news and the best ways to adjust. Myself and other Win Daily staff members will be in Discord tomorrow after weigh ins and Saturday up until lock. Feel free to ask me about my selections because I do make a prediction for each fight. All thoughts are based off my own film study and stats that I evaluate. It may come as a surprise but I don’t think that Stamann (largest betting favorite) is a gimmie to win. Askar does have some solid striking ability if he can avoid the wrestling of Stamann. Next week is exciting with the Welterweight belt on the line as Kamaru Usman faces Gilbert Burns to dictate who takes home the gold!