MLB

TGIF!  It’s Friday and that means we’ll have a massive slate.  Tonight we have ourselves a 13-game slate of MLB DFS.  After last night’s debauchery, it will be nice to have more options to play with.  Although we’ll have 26 teams in action, pitching is going to be very suspect tonight.  Outside of Charlie Morton, all the high-priced pitchers have terrible matchups and matchups that they very well could fail in.  That said, we do have some middle-tiered guys that have really strong matchups and are coming into the matchups pitching well. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Bailey Ober ($8.8k on DK) vs. Seattle Mariners

I’ve been picking on the Mariners all season with righties and tonight is going to be no different.  No team in baseball has a higher strikeout rate vs. righties than the Mariners.  To make matters worse for the Mariners, they’ve also been mostly powerless vs. righties as they have just a .675 OPS vs. them.  They’ve been impatient vs. righties and the results are in the pudding. 

That said, Bailey Ober is coming into this matchup after 2 dominating performances against the A’s.  Over those 2 starts, Ober amassed 18 K’s.  While I don’t know if we get the same level of performance out of him tonight, this is a matchup against a free-swinging team that he should excel in. 

Drew Thorpe ($7.3k on DK) vs. Colorado Rockies

This is how bad pitching is tonight.  I’m relegated to using Drew Thorpe as my SP2.  Drew Thorpe has now made 3 starts in the bigs, with only one of them being bad.  He’s coming off an extremely solid start that saw him strike out 5 across 6 innings of work.  His only blemish on the scorecard that night was that he also walked 4 Tigers.  That is now 9 across his last 2 starts. 

We should see a decrease in his walks tonight as the Rockies are one of the most impatient teams in baseball.  Their 7.3% BB rate is the 4^th lowest in baseball.  Only the Orioles, White Sox, and Marlins have walked at a lower pace than them.  The Rockies have also been terrible of late, striking out 37% of the time over the last week and scoring just 17 runs.  Can Drew Thorpe have a repeat of his last outing?  I think so. 

There are just a few other pitchers that I like tonight.  We could make a case for Charlie Morton but he’s one of the most expensive pitchers on this slate and I’m not overly comfortable paying that price for a pitcher with just a 22% k rate over the last month and facing a team that hasn’t been striking out much. 

Maybe Marcus Stroman vs. Toronto, or maybe Kent Maeda vs. the Angels, or maybe Triston McKenzie vs. a struggling Royals lineup.  Again, this is a tough slate of pitching where the highest-priced pitchers have matchups against teams like the Mets, Twins, Dodgers, and Orioles.  All teams that are smoking the ball right now and ones that I would not want to face. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. JP Sears

I’ve been mostly using the Diamondbacks vs. lefties this year.  All season long, they have been a top-10 offense vs. lefties.  They have several guys in this lineup that mash lefties.  Something they also have going for them is that JP Sears has not been pitching well recently.  Over the last month, Sears has had more outings giving up 4 or more runs than he has given up less than 4 ER.  His last outing was the worst of the season, an outing that saw him give up 8 ER to the Twins in less than 2 innings of work. 

One of the main things that has been doing him in this year has been his control.  His BB/9 is at an all-time high.  This has, in turn, caused him to have an all-time high WHIP.  Over the last month, his WHIP is an astounding 1.9.  That’s nearly 2 runners in every single inning.  If the Diamondbacks can remain patient at the plate, the world will be their oyster and they’ll make for a short outing for Sears.  I’m going to be mostly focused on the righties here.  Righties have a .225 ISO and a .441 wOBA against him over the last 30 days.   

Core Bats: Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel, Christian Walker,

Secondary Bats:  Corbin Carroll

Value Bats: Randal Grichuk, Blaze Alexander, Eugenio Saurez

Cleveland Guardians vs. Alec Marsh

The Guardians were a huge disappointment last night, scoring just 1 run against Michael Wacha and the Royals bullpen.  They get a much easier matchup tonight against Alec Marsh and I just don’t see them disappointing tonight.  Marsh has not been pitching very well over the last month.  If we date back to May 27, he has just one outing under 3 runs allowed and 4 outings giving up at least 4 ER. 

He’s someone that has been giving up a ton of hard contact.  Across his last 25 innings of work, he’s allowed 10 barrels.  His hard-hit rate is a whopping 40% over that period as well.  With a contact rate approaching 80%, that’s a lot of hard-hit balls being put into play.  The Guardians have one of the highest implied run totals on the board at 5.3 tonight.  They should get all of it and then some. 

Core Bats: JRam, Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor

Secondary Bats: David Fry

Value Bats:  Bo Naylor, Daniel Schneemann, Gabriel Arias

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Red Sox vs. Randy Vasquez (close 2^nd behind the Guardians), A’s vs. Slade Cecconi, Tigers vs. Zach Plesac, and Royals vs. Triston McKenzie.  The stacks I like even though they are in tougher matchups are the Mets vs.  Ronel Blanco and Orioles vs. Mad Max.

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Guess what day it is?  Hump Day!  It’s Wednesday and that means we’ll have a split slate.  I’ll be focused on the 6-game slate of MLB DFS starting at 7 pm EST.  We’ll have another Subway series game in this one and after the Mets rocked the Yankees ace, can they do it to Luis Gil also?  At first glance, this slate is really lacking a true ace and pitching is very scarce.  We really have a bunch of mid-range arms that lack serious upside. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Gavin Stone ($8.8k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

This is how tough pitching is tonight.  I’m recommending Gavin Stone as my SP1.  Nothing against him, he’s just not typically one that we’d consider as a top pitcher.  That said, he’s been mostly strong over the last month or so.  Over his last 5 outings, he’s given up more than 2 ER just once and has struck out at least 6 in 4 of the 5.  At his price tonight, if we can get another outing of giving up just 2 ER and striking out 6 I will 100% take it with how pitching has been of late. 

That type of outing shouldn’t be difficult as he takes on the worst team in the league the White Sox.  The White Sox have been dreadful vs. righties this season, striking out 24% of the time and hitting with little power. 

Kutter Crawford ($8.2k on DK) vs. Toronto Blue Jays

I’m going to reiterate, pitching is tough tonight.  Kutter Crawford is coming off a really strong stretch of pitching.  Over his last 3 starts, he’s faced off against the Phillies, Yankees, and Reds.  3 strong offenses that he’s been able to mostly tame.  While he did give up some runs in each of the games, he also struck out a healthy amount of hitters as he struck out a combined 24 hitters. 

With a matchup against the Blue Jays, he should be able to continue his strong string of pitching.  The Blue Jays are nothing more than the average lineup.  Yes, Vlad has been hitting some bombs but this is a team that is 7 games under .500 and has a -46 run differential.  They are not good and Crawford should be able to do well here. 

Other pitchers that I like today will be Luis Gil vs. the Mets and whoever is starting against the Cardinals.  I’ve seen Chris Sale’s name floated around and if he does throw against them, I like him tonight. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Boston Red Sox vs. Yariel Rodriguez

Yariel Rodriguez is coming off a start that saw him fail to get out of the second inning.  Against the Guardians last week, Rodriguez gave up 5 ER in just 1 and a third innings of work.  That is now 3 straight starts of struggles if we look back to April.  Now I don’t expect that type of short outing again today, but I do expect his struggles to continue tonight against a lineup that has been performing well. 

Of the teams playing tonight, no one has scored more runs over the last week than the Red Sox.  They’re also not striking out much as they’ve only struck out 21% of the time over the last week.  The Red Sox have the highest implied total on the board tonight and I expect them to be the highest scoring team on the slate. 

Core Bats: Jarren Duran, Tyler O’Neill, Rafael Devers

Secondary Bats:  David Hamilton, Wilyer Abreu

Value Bats: Dominic Smith, Masataka Yoshida

Minnesota Twins vs. Ryne Nelson

Any time I can use Royce Lewis in this type of matchup I jump at the chance to do it.  Ryne Nelson is a terrible pitcher and should be treated as such.  Over the last month, he’s been giving up a ton of contact at 86%.  That’s one of the highest rates of anyone throwing tonight.  With his nearly 35% hard-hit rate and his propensity to give up contact overall, he’s putting way too many hard-hit balls into play. 

His 12 barrels allowed over the last month is also the top number of all the pitchers tonight.  So many red flags against him.  Over the last 30 days, righties have been his weakness. They have a massive .235 ISO and a .363 wOBA against him.  You know who I’m targeting here. 

Core Bats: Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton

Secondary Bats: Trevor Larnach, Carlos Santana, Max Kepler

Value Bats:  Austin Martin, Christian Vazquez

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Mets vs. Luis Gil, Yankees vs. Sean Manea, and Dodgers vs. Erick Fedde 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Happy Taco Tuesday!  With it being that Tuesday, that will mean we have a massive slate on our hands.  Tonight, we’re blessed with a 12-game slate of MLB DFS.  With so many teams in action, this slate brings us a nice combination of solid pitching and also some really good spots for bats.  It also brings us the Subway Series with both the Yanks and Mets playing really well right now. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Hunter Brown ($8k on DK) vs. Colorado Rockies

At some point this season, DK will price Brown accordingly.  Over his last 5 starts, he’s had DK points of 26, 17, 27, 34, and 23.  He should be priced over $9k, not at $8k.  He is pound-for-pound one of the top pitchers on this slate and should be priced with them.  Of all the pitchers on the hill tonight, he has the highest K rate over the last month and one of the lowest ERA’s.  He also has one of the top matchups on the board tonight against the Rockies. 

The Rockies have been dreadful vs. righties this season as they have a nearly 26% K rate and just a .697 OPS. That includes Coors numbers so to say they’ve been bad would be an understatement.  This has ceiling game written all over it tonight.  He’s going to be chalky but will be chalk worth eating. 

Hunter Greene ($8.6k on DK) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Hunter Greene has been putting it all together of late.  At 24, he’s still young and just breaking into the league.  While his strikeouts have been down this season compared to his first 2 seasons, he’s having what I would consider a breakthrough season.  His ERA is the lowest that it’s ever been and so has his FIP.  He’s done a great job keeping the ball in the park this year, with a HR/9 finally under 1. 

That’s been one of the keys to his success this season, cutting down on the long ball.  He should continue to pitch well today with him taking on a Pirates team that has mostly struggled vs. righties.  Against righties this season the Pirates have struck out 25% of the time while having a .638 OPS and a .122 ISO.  Green should be able to continue his stretch of very strong outings, at a very reasonable price. We just need to keep an eye on the weather here.

Other pitchers that I like today will be Reynaldo Lopez vs. St. Louis and MacKenzie Gore vs. San Diego (narrative outing).  Seth Lugo is also in play vs. Miami, but there are better options out there that are way cheaper.  I don’t think we’ll need to go there tonight. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Houston Astros vs. Austin Gomber

Austin Gomber is in the middle of his worst stretch of the season.  Over the last month, Gomber has pitched to an ERA of 9.68 and an xFIP of 5.54.  While he hasn’t pitched nearly as bad as his ERA would indicate, he’s still been really bad.  He’s giving up a boatload of contact at nearly 86% and with nearly 38% of that contact being hard-hit, he’s putting a ton of smoked balls into play.  Through the 17 innings he’s thrown over the last 30 days, he’s given up 9 barrels.  That’s an astronomical pace. 

This also isn’t just a Coors’ effect.  He’s been worse on the road this year and all the offensive metrics are worse away from Coors.  To make matters worse for him today, he’s facing an Astros team that is finally hitting the ball well.  Of the teams playing tonight, only the Padres have scored more runs over the last week.

Core Bats: Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena

Secondary Bats: Yordan Alvarez,  

Value Bats: Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick

Washington Nationals vs. Adam Mazur

The Nationals have been a sneaky offense at times this season.  While I wouldn’t put them anywhere near close to the top offenses in the league, they are extremely competent and in the right matchup can excel. This is the right matchup for them to excel in.  Adam Mazur really struggles vs. lefties and the bread and butter of the Nationals lineup is left-handed. 

Against lefties this season, Mazur has given up a .188 ISO and a .464 wOBA.  That’s compared to just a .270 wOBA vs. righties.  His K rate also dips to just 7% against them.  This is a solid spot for guys like CJ Abrams and Jesse Winker. 

Core/Value Bats: CJ Abrams, Jesse Winker, Eddie Rosario

Secondary Bats: Lane Thomas, Luis Garcia

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Texas lefties, Diamondback lefties, Cubs, and Yankees from the right side. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Happy Saturday!  We made it to the weekend.  We have ourselves an 8-game slate of MLB DFS today starting at 4 pm EST.  This is a slate that looks to be a little bit clearer in terms of pitching than what we’ve had of late.  We also have some really solid spots for hitting, especially with the weather being really hot in some spots.  The ball should be flying today!

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Logan Gilbert ($9.2k on DK) vs. Miami Marlins

Even though the Marlins pulled out the walk-off win last night, we did get a very solid performance from George Kirby as he went 7-strong and struck out 5 along the way.  I expect a little bit more out of Logan Gilbert tonight as he has been pretty good of late.  Over the last month, Gilbert has a 25% K rate and just a 2.41 ERA.  He’s coming off a monster performance that saw him strike out 9 Rangers across 8 innings of work. 

This is a pretty weak-hitting Marlins team against righties, with their .657 OPS and .128 ISO.  The one thing they have going for them is that they don’t strike out a ton vs. righties.  That said, Gilbert should provide enough length today to more than make up for his salary.  Gilbert is strong enough and in a good enough matchup tonight to be my SP1.    

Corbin Burnes ($9.1k on DK) vs. Houston Astros

Corbin Burnes has been the model of consistency over the last month.  He’s had just one start since May 19 where he’s been under 20 DK points.  Even though the matchup isn’t great for him today, he’s proven time and time again that he’s one of the best pitchers in the league and is nearly matchup-proof. 

Last Sunday against the Phillies he went 6 innings and struck out 7, while only giving up 2 ER.  The Phillies are a much tougher lineup than the Astros and if he could pull out a performance like that against them, he can surely do it against the Astros as well.  In his final year before free agency, Burnes is pitching like the ace he is.  He’ll continue to perform and perform well this afternoon against the Stros. 

Other pitchers that I really like today will be Bailey Ober vs. Oakland, Zack Wheeler vs. Arizona, and Zach Eflin vs. Pittsburgh if you need a really cheap pitcher. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tommy Henry

I’m expecting the Phillies to explode for a whole bunch of runs today.  While their offense hasn’t been that hot of late, they get a great matchup vs. a pitcher in Tommy Henry who hasn’t been very good recently.  Over the last month, Henry has pitched to an ERA of 9.95.  Yes, that’s a bit exaggerated but he also has an xFIP of 6.98 and a SIERA of 6.1.  He’s coming off a start that saw him give up 5 ER in just 4 innings of work against one of the worst offenses in the league in the White Sox.  He’s going to get hammered by a team that has mostly crushed lefties this season. 

The Phillies have hit for a ton of power vs. lefties this season, with a .764 OPS and a wOBA of .336.  With Henry, we want to prioritize righties as they have a .280 ISO and .414 wOBA vs. him this season. 

Core Bats: Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper

Secondary Bats: Nick Castellanos,

Value Bats: Edmundo Sosa, Whitt Merrifield, Rafael Marchan

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jared Jones

The Tampa Bay Rays have seemed to found their groove recently.  Over the last week, of the teams playing tonight, only Baltimore and Boston have scored more runs than them.  They even put up a 10 spot last night.  The Rays get a strong matchup tonight vs. a pitcher in Jared Jones who has really regressed after starting out the season rather strongly.  Over the last month, Jones has pitched to a nearly 6 ERA.  He’s been getting hit pretty hard as he’s giving up 9 barrels over his last 20 innings of work. 

Jones has given up at least 6 ER in 2 of his last 3 outings and I would not be shocked to see him do it again today.  What also helps us here is that Jones has a rather short leash.  Over his last 4 starts, he has gone more than 5 innings just once.  The Pirates bullpen has been pretty lousy of late, with an ERA over 5.50 the last 2 weeks. 

Core/Value Bats: Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, Josh Lowe,

Secondary Bats: Isaac Paredes, Ben Rortvedt

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Mariners vs. Shaun Anderson, Red Sox vs. Frankie Montas, and Royals vs. Jon Gray

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

TGIF!  It’s Friday and that means we’ll have a large slate tonight.  Tonight, we’ll have a 10-game slate of MLB DFS.  It’s a tricky slate as pitching does not look great.  The 2 best pitchers on this slate are going to be Dylan Cease and Chris Sale.  At first glance, I have little to no interest in either one of them as Cease has regressed to his troubles from 2023 and Chris Sale has to take on the behemoth also known as the New York Yankees.  We also have a slew of terrible pitchers on this slate which means we’ll certainly have some options for bats. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

George Kirby ($9.4k on DK) vs. Miami Marlins

My major concern here with going with George Kirby tonight is that he just isn’t a high-strikeout pitcher.  He’s only had double-digit strikeouts once this season and has been over 7 just 3 times.  That said, he’s in a great spot tonight vs. a Miami Marlins that has struggled for the majority of the year to resemble a major league lineup, and their numbers vs. righties this season are terrible. 

They have put up just a .657 OPS and a wOBA of .289.  What Kirby lacks in strikeouts, he should make up for in length as I can certainly see him going to 7 strong innings tonight with little to no damage against him.  He’s coming off a game that saw him strike out 6 Rangers and giving up just 1 run.  If he can replicate that tonight, I’ll be extremely pleased and it’s attainable. 

Colin Rea ($7k on DK) vs. San Diego Padres

I’m not a huge fan of using a pitcher like Colin Rea, but on a slate like this with limited options, I feel like we need to.  For his part, Colin Rea hasn’t pitched that poorly recently.  Over the last month, Rea owns a very solid ERA of 1.93 and has done a decent job of limiting hard contact as hitters have a hard-hit rate of less than 30% vs. him.  The major red flag on him though is that he just doesn’t strike out many hitters. 

Over his last 7 starts, he’s had 5 K’s or more in 4 of them topping out at 6 in his last matchup vs. Cincy.  Knowing all that though, he has been serviceable as he’s been over 20 DK points in 2 straight starts and has been under 10 in just 2 of his last 7 starts.  The Padres continue to be a disappointment as they are still under .500 for the year.  I can see Rea continuing to pitch well here tonight. 

I didn’t mention them in my top 2 pitchers but I want to touch on both Sale and Cease.  Sale has one of the toughest matchups on the board against the Yankees.  He’ll certainly get his strikeouts, but I also think he allows too many runs tonight to pay off his salary.  With Cease, we have a pitcher that has all the K upside in the world.  However, he’s pitching terribly right now.  Over his last 7 starts, he’s allowed at least 3 ER in all but one.  With a matchup against a very solid Brewers lineup, especially against righties, I just can’t justify using a $10k pitcher who has been over 20 DK twice in his last 7 starts.  Another one of the best pitchers on the board tonight, Grayson Rodiguez, gets a tough matchup vs. the Astros.  They are one of the lowest strike-out teams in all of baseball.  Again, we’d have a pitcher with limited upside that we’d be paying a premium for. 

Other pitchers I do like are Chris Paddack vs. Oakland (he just got slaughtered by them though), Landon Knack (low ceiling, high floor) vs. Los Angeles, and Carlos Rodon vs. Atlanta.  It’s tough sledding out here tonight. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Carlos Carrasco

Since April 24, Carlos Carrasco has had more starts allowing at least 5 ER than he does allowing less than 5 ER.  At 37, we have to wonder how much more Carrasco has left in the tank.  He’s had just one season over the last 3 with an ERA under 4 and this year he continues to struggle even though he’s back on the team that he broke into the big leagues with.  This is going to be the second straight start that Carrasco makes vs. the Blue Jays. 

He started against them a week ago and allowed 5 ER in his 5 innings of work.  While the Blue Jays will still be without Bo Bichette, they are still a very solid lineup and one that should be able to dominate Carrasco once again tonight.  I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits as Carrasco has been susceptible to both righties and lefties this season.

Core Bats (In preferential order): Vlad Guerrero, Davis Schneider, Daulton Varsho

Secondary Bats: Danny Jansen

Value Bats: Addison Barger, Spencer Horwitz, IKF, Justin Turner, George Springer

Cincinnati Reds vs. Kutter Crawford

It is going to be hot today in Cincinnati!  The majority of this game tonight should be played with temperatures well into the 90’s.  At first pitch, it’s going to be closer to 100 than it is to 90.  And when it gets that warm in Cincy, the ball flies and with a flyball pitcher in Kutter Crawford going tonight that just means we have the potential for a home run derby type of game. 

Over the last month, Crawford has a fly ball rate of nearly 46%, and that has led to him giving up 7 homers over his last 28 innings of work.  I fully expect the long ball to do him in this evening.  I’m going to prioritize the lefties here as they have a .281 ISO vs. him over the last month. 

Core Bats: Elly De La Cruz, Jeimer Candelario, Jake Fraley

Secondary Bats: Spencer Steer, Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson

Value Bats: Jacob Hurtubise, Will Benson, Nick Martini

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Twins vs. Joey Eses, Nationals vs. Dakota Hudson, Rockies vs. DJ Herz, and Red Sox vs. Andrew Abbott

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!