Happy Hump Day! It’s Wednesday and that will mean we’ll have a fairly large slate to work with. Tonight we have ourselves an 11-game slate of MLB DFS. At first glance, this slate is loaded with pitching options. There are several high-end pitchers that are also in fairly decent spots to perform. We also have some really strong spots for offense. This is shaping up to be a fun-looking slate.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
Zack Wheeler continues to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. If we look at his recent box scores, we can really see just one blemish and that was against one of the top lineups in the game today. Over the last 2 months, he’s had just 2 outings where he’s given up more than 2 ER. Overall, his body of work has been extremely impressive. The one concern with him is that the K’s just haven’t been there and in DFS, K’s are king. Tonight is a night where I think he gets his K’s and more.
The Cubs have been terrible of late. Over the last week, they’ve scored just 16 runs and have struck out 32% of the time. I say this time and time again, I chase ceiling-type outings. For Wheeler tonight, this is a ceiling-type game for him as the Cubs are striking out a ton of late. Look for Wheeler to have one of his vintage-type outings tonight. He has 30-point upside in this matchup with how the Cubs are playing right now.
Because of his last outing, I expect Davis Daniel to be rather popular tonight. He struck out 8 Tigers in 8 shutout innings. Against anyone else, I’d probably fade him as he’s still mostly unproven. I’m struggling to find a reason to fade him tonight as he gets one of the top matchups out of any pitcher on this slate. The A’s are back to being terrible. Over the last week, they’ve scored 12 runs and have struck out 34% of the time.
The projected lineup tonight for the A’s has 6 guys that have a strikeout rate over 27% vs. righties this season. While we can’t really bank on another 8k shutout performance out of Daniel, the matchup is strong enough that we very well could see 6-7 K’s and limited damage against him. I’m going to eat the chalk here because he has immense upside at relatively little cost.
Other pitchers I like today are going to be Chris Sale vs. the Giants, Dean Kremer vs. the Mariners, and Shota Imanaga vs. the Phillies.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Coors was a huge letdown last night as the Rockies and Brewers combined to score just 7 runs. With Dakota Hudson on the mound tonight, we should expect the Brewers to score 7 on their own. Dakota Hudson has been bad of late. Over the last month, Hudson is sporting an ERA of 7.77. Most of this is thanks to the 13 ER he’s given up over his last 2 starts. He’s just too low of a K guy to be successful.
His K rate of just 11.70% over the last month is one of the lowest of anyone throwing tonight. He’s also sporting a WHIP of nearly 2. That’s nearly 2 runners on in every inning. Just really bad stuff. While the entire lineup for the Brewers will be in play today, I’m going to prioritize getting the lefties here. Over the last 30 days, lefties have a .292 ISO vs. him and a .469 wOBA. Thankfully, the Brewers have some really strong lefties we can target.
Core Bats: Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, Sal Frelick
Secondary Bats: William Contreras, Willy Adamas, Rhys Hoskins
Is Carlos Rodon Patrick Corbin 2.0? His first season in the Bronx was marred by injuries and he ended up finishing the season with a 6.85 ERA across 14 starts. While this season started a bit stronger, he has completely fallen apart. Over his last 3 starts, Rodon has allowed 21 ER. Things aren’t going to get any easier for him tonight as he’s facing a Reds lineup that scored 5 runs against Luis Gil and company last night.
Rodon’s only saving grace is that he’s still getting some K’s. His K rate over the last month is still around 25%. That said, when he’s not striking out hitters, he’s giving up bombs or barrels. He’s given up 6 homers over the last month and 11 barrels. He’s lost right now and until he finds himself, I’m stacking against him.
Core Bats: Elly De La Cruz, Jeimer Candelario, Jonathan India, Spencer Steer
Value Bats: Stuart Fairchild, Noelvi Marte
They didn’t make my top 2, but at the end of the day, they may. I also really like the Rangers lefties vs. Adam Mazur. He’s been terrible also and I’ll be sure to have some exposure to Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Smith, Jonah Heim, and should he come back tonight Corey Segar. Other teams I like tonight will be the Padres vs. Jon Gray, the Astros vs. Yusei Kikuchi, and the Yankees vs. Andrew Abbott.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
WINNER! It was a 1-2 FINISH in the tips for David (@DeepDiveGolf) last week AND he gave out Bhatia as headline FRL at 45/1 right here on the PGA Draftcast. Can we tip you into another winner this week?
Join Spence (@TeeOffSports), Joel (@draftmastersflex), and David (@deepdivegolf) as they deep-dive into their preview of the John Deere Classic!
Happy Taco Tuesday! After just 3 games on the schedule yesterday, we’re back to having a plethora of games to watch and choose players from. Tonight, we have ourselves a massive 11-game slate of MLB DFS. This slate has some interesting options for use to choose from in regards to pitching. It also brings us back to one of my favorite punching bags in Dallas Keuchel.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
Pitchers against the Mariners this season have been a successful way to cash. At 877 strikeouts so far this season, the Mariners lead the league and the next closest team is nearly 40 K’s behind them. This is a team that is striking out an epic pace and they don’t seem to be slowing down any time soon. Over the last week, the Mariners have struck out 38% of the time. Just crazy stuff right there.
Against righties this season, the Mariners have struck out more than 28% of the time. While Rodriguez isn’t quite known as a huge K guy, he has gotten into the double-digit strike-out territory this season and has often gotten to at least 6 in most starts. I stress this all the time in chasing ceiling games, and this is a ceiling game for Rodriguez tonight. He’s in a stretch right now that has seen him get to at least 20 DK in 5 of his last 6 starts. He should add to that total tonight in a solid matchup.
I’m not finding it necessary to chase the top arms tonight. After somewhat spending up for Rodriguez tonight, I’m going with a cheaper arm in Jose Siriano. Siriano gets one of the better matchups on the board tonight as he takes on the lowly Oakland Athletics. The A’s have been really bad of late. Over the last week, they’ve scored just 17 runs while striking out 30% of the time. The projected lineup tonight for the A’s has a 26% strikeout rate vs. righties this season.
This all sets up great for a pitcher in Siriano who has been pitching rather well recently. Over his last 6 starts, Siriano has been at or above 18 DK points in 4 of them. What he lacks in K upside, he makes up for in length as he’s gone at least 6 innings in 5 consecutive starts. His WHIP of just 1 has helped in going longer in games. Look for him to have another solid night tonight.
Other pitchers I like today are going to be Dylan Cease vs. the Rangers, Reynaldo Lopez vs. the Giants, and Tarik Skubal vs. the Twins. None of those guys are a must play though as the matchups are tough for the top-end pitchers tonight.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
If you forgot that Dallas Keuchel was still around, you’re not alone. Until the Mariners traded him to the Brewers last week, I thought he had all but retired. I for one am extremely grateful he’s still around because that means we get to stack against him when he’s on the mound. I normally try to avoid going to Coors because ownership is normally exaggerated, but I’m making an exception tonight as Keuchel is terrible these days.
Ever since peaking in 2020, baseball has been Keuchel’s enemy. Over the last few years, Keuchel has consistently had an ERA over 5, and last year it was pushing 6, ultimately getting released by the Twins. He’s made just one start this season but it was the same ole same ole for him. 5 ER allowed in just 4 innings of work. After having a bullpen game yesterday, I’d expect Keuchel to have a longer leash today. That’s music to our ears.
Core Bats: Brendan Rodgers, Brenton Doyle, Ezequiel Tover, Elias Diaz
Secondary Bats: Ryan McMahon, Nolan Jones
Few pitchers in baseball get hit as hard as Ryne Nelson gets hit. He’s already allowed 25 barrels this season, with 14 coming over his last 27 innings of work. He also has allowed a mind-boggling 43% hard-hit rate. Now, if he had a high swinging strike rate or K rate, he’d be ok. But the fact that he has a contact rate against him of 86% just means he is putting a massive amount of hard-hit balls into play.
Now, if he was a ground ball pitcher, he’d be ok. He’s not. Over the last month, Nelson has allowed a 44% flyball rate. So we have a pitcher that is giving up a 86% contact rate, a 43% hard-hit rate, and a 44% flyball rate. Bombs. Away.
Core Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Shohei Ohtani, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman
Secondary Bats: Teoscar Hernandez
Value Bats: Miguel Rojas, Jason Heyward, Gavin Lux, Cavan Biggio
Other stacks I like today will be the Yankees vs. Graham Ashcraft, Dbacks vs. Bobby Miller, Phillies vs. Hayden Wesneski, Brewers vs. Ryan Feltner, and Reds vs. Luis Gil. As you can see, there are a ton of options for bats today. If you want to be sneaky, go Reds vs. Gil. It’s risky, but Gil has been terrible of late.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Happy Saturday everyone! Today we have ourselves an 8-game slate of MLB DFS starting at 4 pm EST. This is a slate that will be a bit different than last night in that we have a few more options on the mound. At first glance, this looks to be a pretty fun slate with options for both bats and arms. This should mean ownership should be more spread out than last night as we had chalk Bailey Ober. Thankfully, he didn’t let us down.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
This is a much less intimidating lineup for the Atlanta Braves than it was last season. Guys like Austin Riley and Matt Olson aren’t having the seasons they had in 2023 and because of that, the Braves aren’t nearly as dominant as they were. At nearly the All-Star Break, they sit 8 games out of first and even though the Phillies will miss some of their major pieces for the next couple of weeks, I don’t see them catching up anytime soon.
That said, I’d play Skenes regardless of the matchup. Through 8 starts in the big leagues, Skenes has proven the most important thing for DFS. He can strike anyone out. He’s had just one start under 7 K’s this season and that was against a Giants lineup that is stingy. He’s in a stretch right now that has seen him strike out at least 7 hitters in 5 straight and against a Braves team that has struck out 28% of the time over the last week, he’ll continue to rack up the K’s. Enjoy the price being under $9k today, I don’t think it ever happens again.
What Nola lacks in the strikeout department, he makes up for with his length. It’s been a month and a half since we saw Nola get at least 8 K’s in a game, but over that stretch he’s gone into the 7th inning in all but 1 outing. We should see another dominating performance out of Nola today as he takes on the lowly Miami Marlins. This is a terrible lineup and a lineup that has scored only 17 runs over the last week while striking out 30% of the time.
Any pitcher that throws against them has ceiling upside and the ceiling upside that we can get from Nola today is an outing in the 30 DK point. Anything can happen in baseball as it’s one of the most highly variant sport, but I like the odds of Nola being one of the top performing pitchers today. We’re getting 2 pitchers for under $9k today that can get us 50 points if they just pitch like they normally do.
Other pitchers I like today are going to be Max Fried vs. Pittsburgh, Cole Ragans vs. Cleveland, and Jake Irvin vs. Tampa. This slate is a breath of fresh air compared to last night’s.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
I said it yesterday, and I’ll say it again today. When the Dbacks play against a lefty they are almost a lock for me to stack. Although they only managed to plate 3 runs against Sears last night, they put the ball in play and they put the ball in play with some hard-hit balls. They just got unlucky as they had a .250 BABIP. They are one of the best teams in baseball against lefties and they get an even better matchup today than last night.
Hogan Harris has a very respectable ERA over the last month of 2.28. He’s due for some major regression as his SIERA and xFIP are nearly 2.5 runs higher. He’s giving up a ton of hard contact at nearly 37% and a ton of fly balls at 44%. That’s led to him giving up 6 homers over his last 27 innings of work. More damage will be inflicted upon him today. I’m going to mostly focused on the righties here as they have a 41% fly ball rate vs. him and a 54% hard-hit rate vs. him. 5 of the 6 homers he’s allowed this season have been to righties.
Core Bats: Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel, Christian Walker,
Secondary Bats: Corbin Carroll
Value Bats: Randal Grichuk, Blaze Alexander, Eugenio Saurez
I wish the Phillies were healthier coming into this one as both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber will be out the next couple of weeks. This is a phenomenal matchup for the Phillies today as Roddery Munoz has been, to quote Charles Barkley, “Turrible.” He’s given up at least 4 ER in 4 of his last 5 outings and should continue to give up a ton today. The home run ball has really crushed him. In his last 20 innings of work, he’s allowed 8 bombs. Giving up one just about every other inning is not ideal.
He’s just giving up way too many fly balls and way too many hard hits. He’ll be pitching in one of the easiest parks to hit a homer in today so we should see some long balls from the Phillies today. With all the injuries the Phillies have right now, we’ll also get some value in this lineup. I’ll be laser focused on the lefties here as they have a mind-boggling .429 ISO vs. him this season. Oh, Harper and Schwarber, you couldn’t wait a couple of days to get hurt?
Core Bats: Brandon Marsh(value also), Bryson Stot, Trea Turner
Secondary Bats: Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm
Value Bats: Kody Clemens, David Dahl
Other stacks I like today will be Houston vs. Tylor Megill, Mets vs. Framber Valdez, and Nationals vs. Aaron Civale.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.
