MLB

TGIF!  We’re almost at the All-Star break as we head into the last series of the first half.  Tonight, we’ll have a massive 12-game slate of MLB DFS.  One thing we’ll need to do tonight is monitor the weather.  There are a handful of games that will be impacted by the remnants of Hurricane Beryl.  There are at least 2 games that will be played in Baltimore and New York that have a very real PPD risk.  This slate will bring us two of the top young arms in the league in very favorable matchups.    

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Garrett Crochet ($10.3k on DK) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Garrett Crochet gets a dynamite matchup tonight vs. a Pirates team that has struggled vs. lefties.  Against lefties this season, the Pirates have struck out nearly 25% while hitting for almost no power at a .688 OPS.  Their projected lineup tonight has 6 guys with a K rate over 27% vs. lefties this season.  Half of the lineup tonight also has a wOBA under .300 vs. lefties this season. 

This has a ceiling-type game written all over it for Crochet.  We’ve seen him get upwards of 13 K’s on the year and he’s reached double-digit strikeouts 6 times on the year. With this matchup against a rough Pirates lineup, he has double-digit strikeout upside.  He’s my SP1 tonight and I’m not looking back. 

Cole Ragans ($8.5k on DK) vs. Boston Red Sox

While the Red Sox have been a team that we’ve often used to stack against righties, the opposite can be said when talking lefties.  No team is striking out at a higher rate against lefties than the Red Sox.  At a 29.2% K rate, the Red Sox are more than 300 basis points clear of the next worst team.  Even though they can show some pop vs. lefties, I’m going to be chasing the K’s and we’ll be chasing the K’s from one of the best in the game this season in Cole Ragans. 

Over the last month, Ragans has been strong with a 3.82 ERA and a nearly 29% K rate.  Since early May, he has just one start allowing more than 3 ER and that was against a strong Guardians team.  He continues to pile up K’s, with 25 over his last 3 starts.  There’s some power risk here, but he has a ton of upside in a matchup against a team that K’s a ton vs. lefties.    

Other pitchers I like today will be Sean Manea (weather permitting) vs. Colorado, Sonny Gray vs. Chicago, Joe Ryan vs. San Francisco, Freddy Peralta vs. a struggling Nats lineup, and Hunter Brown vs. Texas.     

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Mets vs. Tanner Gordon

I really hope the weather gods work out for us tonight because the Mets are rolling and they get a great matchup vs. a young Rockies pitcher that did not look good in his Major League debut.  In his debut, Gordon allowed 5 runs in just over 6 innings of work.  I’ll cut him a bit of slack as pitching in Coors is never easy.  That said, his metrics for the start just weren’t any good. 

He allowed a nearly 84% contact and a nearly 37% hard-hit rate.  That’s a lot of hard-hit balls being put into play.  In his 6 innings of work, he also allowed 2 bombs.  If we look at his numbers at AAA with both the Rockies and Braves, they have not been good either.  He had an ERA of 5.35 in 7 starts in Alberquerque and then also had an ERA of 5.53 in 26 starts in the minors in 2023. 

Core Bats: Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez

Secondary Bats:  Pete Alonso, JD Martinez

Value Bats: Jeff McNeill, Harrison Bader

Braves lefties vs. Randy Vasquez

If you’re a lefty bat from the Braves, you are 100% in play tonight.  Randy Vasquez overall isn’t a terrible pitcher.  Over the last month, he owns an ERA that isn’t terrible at 4.12.  His xFIP is slightly higher over the last month and is approaching 5.  His SIERA over the last month is a smidge higher at 5.16.  Where we want to attack Vasquez is specifically with lefties. 

Over the last 30 days, lefties have a .204 ISO and a .470 wOBA vs. him.  They also have just a 4.1% K rate vs. him.  On the year, lefties have a massive slash line of .431/477/.667 vs. him.  For those at home without a working calculator, that’s an OPS of 1.144.  Just terrible, very terrible stuff but music to ours

Core Bats: Matt Olson, Jarred Kelenic, Ozzie Albies

Secondary Bats: Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Adam Duval

Value Bats:  Eddie Rosario

If for some miracle the O’s/Yanks game plays tonight, I’ll be all over the Yankees.  Cade Povich is coming off a miserable start vs. the A’s and all of his advanced metrics say it wasn’t an anomaly.  Both sides of the plate would be in play.  I just don’t think this game pays today. 

Other stacks I like today will be the Reds vs. Yonny Chirinos, Marlins lefties vs. Carson Spiers, Cardinals vs. Kyle Hendricks, Mariners vs. Tyler Anderson, Diamondbacks vs. Yariel Rodriguez, Toronto vs. Ryne Nelson, Twins vs. Kyle Harrison.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Happy Patrick Corbin Day to those who celebrate!  It’s Wednesday and that means we’ll have a large slate of games. Tonight we have ourselves a 10-game slate of MLB DFS.  At first glance, this slate lacks a true ace.  While we have some solid pitchers on the slate, there isn’t a single arm that stands out as a must-play.  This will mean that ownership will be spread out.  As you saw in the first line, Patrick Corbin will be on the hill and he’ll be on the hill against my New York Mets.  You know what that will mean!

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Nick PIvetta ($9.6k on DK) vs. Oakland Athletics

I will never feel comfortable using Nick Pivetta as my SP1.  This slate is really lacking with aces though so I’m going to chase the upside here.  Pivetta is coming off arguably his best start of the season.  In his last outing, he went 7 strong innings against the Marlins, giving up 0 ER while striking out a season-high 10 batters.  Those 10 strikeouts were the second time he’s gotten into the double-digit K territory this season. 

He gets an equally tasty matchup today vs. an Oakland team that is 25 games under .500 for the season.  Yes, they’ve put up some runs over the last week but it was against 2 starters who weren’t good in Brayan Bellow and Cade Povich.  While Pivetta has had his fair share of struggles this season, he is someone who can have a high ceiling and this is a high-ceiling type of game in my opinion. He’s risky, but he also has immense upside in a matchup against a team that is striking out 27% of the time this season vs. righties. 

Michael Wacha vs. St. Louis Cardinals

While the Cardinals have played better baseball this season, they are still a team that struggles against righties.  On the year, they have a nearly 24% K rate vs. righties and just a .148 ISO.  The projected lineup for the Cardinals tonight has 4 guys with a K rate vs. righties this season of at least 27%.  There is upside for Wacha tonight in this matchup.  Wacha for his part has pitched well this season, and especially well over the last month or so. 

Since mid-May, Wacha hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any start and that’s a stretch of 7 starts.  Over that stretch, he’s faced some tough competition in the Padres, Rangers, Guardians, and Tampa Bay twice.  He’s not a sexy pick as he rarely gets more than 7 K’s, but he’s someone who will provide a high floor as he’s been under 16 DK points just once in the last 2 months. 

Other pitchers I like today are going to be Framber Valdez vs. Miami, Luis Severino vs. Washington, Tobias Myers vs. Pittsburgh, Chris Bassitt vs. San Fran, and Logan Webb vs. Toronto.  As you can see by this list, we have no pitcher that screams upside.     

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Mets vs. Patrick Corbin

3 more months.  I bet the Nationals front office is looking at the calendar and realizing they will have Patrick Corbin on the roster for just 3 more months.  Since signing with the Nats back in 2019, he’s had just one season with an ERA under 4 and just 2 seasons with an ERA under 5.  Over the last 4 seasons, he’s had ERA’s of 5.82, 6.31, 5.2 and this season at 5.49.  His time in DC has been a complete disaster. 

Each year since 2018, his K/9 has continued to decrease and his BB/9 has continued to increase.  His only saving grace this season is that his HR/FB is at the lowest point since 2018.  That should change tonight vs. a Mets that has crushed lefties this season, with a .185 ISO and a .780 OPS.  With Corbin, we want the righties.  13 of the 14 homers he’s given up this season have been to righties and 218 of the 252 homers he’s given up in his career have been to righties. 

Core Bats: Mark Vientos, Pete Alonso, JD Martinez, Francisco Lindor, Harrison Bader , Franciso Alvarez

Secondary Bats:  Brandon Nimmo

Value Bats: Jose Iglesias, Tyrone Taylor

Boston Red Sox vs. JP Sears

The Red Sox came through for us last night, putting up a 12 spot.  While the matchup isn’t as solid as last night, it’s still a strong spot for them.  Over the last month, JP Sears has been terrible.  He owns an ERA of 7.48 and an xFIP over 6 over his last 21 innings of work. 

To make matters even better for us tonight, the A’s used their bullpen for nearly 8 innings last night as Joey Estes couldn’t make it out of the second inning.  This should mean that Sears will have a bit of a longer leash tonight.  Normally the concern for the Red Sox against lefties is their strike outs.  Sears is a low K person as his K rate is just 16% this season.  I won’t be as worried about K’s here. 

Core Bats: Tyler O’Neill, Ceddanne Rafaela, Rafael Devers

Secondary Bats: Jarren Duran

Value Bats:  Rob Refsnyder, Connor Wong, Dom Smith

I didn’t mention them in my top 2, but the Reds vs. Kyle Freeland are very much in play. If you look at Freeland’s ERA over the last month it’s strong at just 1.37. His xFIP tells us a completely different story as it’s nearly 3 runs higher. The same can be said for his SIERA. He’s due for regression and it should come tonight. Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer will be my priority with that stack.

Other stacks I like today will be the Braves vs. Slade Cecconi, Brewers vs. Martin Perez, Rangers vs. Griffin Canning, and Angels vs. Michael Lorenzen

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

It’s Taco Tuesday!  It’s Tuesday and that means we’ll have a large slate of games to work with.  Tonight, we have a massive 11-game slate of MLB DFS.  This slate brings us last night’s expected ace Chris Sale as his start was pushed back a day.  There will be some weather concerns tonight as 3 games have some rain in the forecast.  One involves one of the top pitchers on the slate in Bailey Ober.  Yes, you read that right.  This slate will also bring us some excellent spots for bats. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Chris Sale ($10.4k on DK) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

I normally fade lefties against the Dbacks as they are one of the better teams in the league vs. southpaws.  That said, Chris Sale is one of the few starters in the league that is essentially matchup-proof.  Well, as long as he isn’t starting against the A’s that is.  A healthy Chris Sale is good for baseball and Sale is finally healthy this season.  On the year, he’s posted an impressive 33% K rate. 

His splits against lefties and righties have been pretty consistent this season.  Over the last 30 days, Sale’s K rate has increased to nearly 38%.  Since April 19, Sale has just 4 starts where he’s allowed 2 or more ER.  That’s across 12 starts.  Over that stretch, Sale has the same number of starts having double-digit K’s as he does allowing 2 ER or more.  Just crazy stuff from him this season.  He’s my SP1 tonight. 

Bailey Ober ($8.7k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

Bailey Ober is in the middle of one of the finest stretches of his young career.  Over the last month, Ober has been spectacular.  He owns a 2.53 ERA (xFIP of 2.73) and a strikeout rate that is over 32%.  He has 4 straight starts with at least 8 K’s.  Some will say that it has been matchup driven and it probably has.  He’s faced the Tigers, Mariners, and the A’s twice over those 4 games. 

He gets arguably an even better matchup tonight as he takes on the 26-67 Chicago White Sox.  The White Sox have a league-worst run differential at -166.  Against righties this season, the White Sox have struck out nearly 24% of the time and have an ISO of just .129.  Now anything can happen and he can certainly regress a bit, but this matchup is Ober’s for the taking and he should smash tonight.  I’m hoping the weather holds out for us as that’s the only thing that can slow him down at this point. 

If the Twins/Sox game gets called, I’m going to pivot to Yusei Kikuchi.  He’s due for some positive regression as his xFIP is nearly 3 runs lower than his ERA.  While he’s given up some bombs, he’s been rather unlucky as his LOB % is just 75% and his BABIP is a massive .362.  The Giants have not been good recently as they have a 33% K rate over the last week and have scored just 22 runs. 

Other pitchers I like today are going to be Logan Gilbert vs. San Diego, Ronel Blanco vs. Miami, Jake Irvin vs. the Mets, and Zac Gallen vs. Atlanta.  We’ll have plenty of options on the mound tonight. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Boston Red Sox lefties vs. Joe Estes

If we take a look at the splits for Joey Estes, he could not line up any better for us than he does as he struggles mightily vs. lefties.  On the year, Estes has just a 15% K rate vs. lefties and a 9% walk rate.  He’s allowing a flyball rate of more than 34% and a hard-hit rate that is approaching 53%.  This has allowed lefties to have a .264 ISO and a .369 wOBA against him.  Across 65 innings at the Major League level, Estes has allowed 11 homers, 7 of which have come against lefties.  They have a slugging % over .900 vs. him in his career. 

The Red Sox lineup tonight should have upwards of 6 lefties in it.  This has a nightmare all over it for Estes tonight.  With the Red Sox, the good thing for us is that the core lefties in this group aren’t a pitch-hit risk so we should be able to count on them for the entire game.  It’s going to be hot in the North East today and we’ve got a wind that’s blowing out so the ball will travel, and the ball will travel far!

Core Bats: Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, David Hamilton

Secondary Bats:  Tyler O’Neill, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu

Value Bats: Dom Smith, Masataka Yoshida

Mariners lefties vs. Adam Mazur

Adam Mazur is another pitcher who is absolutely atrocious vs. lefties.  The Padres rookie continues to struggle vs. lefties this season as they have an OPS of 1.108 vs him this season and a wOBA of .467.  Both of those numbers are just terrible.  I’ve been avoiding stacking the Mariners this season because of their propensity to strike out against righties.  Mazur is just a different breed though when it comes to striking out hitters. 

His K/9 this year is sitting at just 5.13 and his BB/9 is higher at 5.81.  With him not missing any bats, I’m not going to be as worried tonight about strikeouts.  Mazur has also struggled mightily at home, with an ERA of 10.66 in San Diego compared to “just” 4.61 on the road.  The Mariners have a few lefties that have some pop and those are the bats I’m going to be targeting here. 

Core Bats: Luke Raley, Cal Raleigh, JP Crawford

Secondary Bats: Mitch Garver, Julio Rodriguez, Ty France

Value Bats:  Dominic Canzone, Josh Rojas

Other stacks I like today will the Blue Jays vs. Blake Snell, Rangers vs. Roansy Contreras and Pirates vs. Colin Rea,

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Happy Saturday y’all!  We made it to the weekend!  I’ll be focused on the 8-game slate of MLB DFS starting at 4pm est.  This is a slate that has one of the up-and-coming stud pitchers in a phenomenal matchup today.  After that, there’s a steep decline in pitching so we’ll want to navigate pretty carefully.  This slate does bring us some really solid spots for hitting though. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Garrett Crochet ($10.4k on DK) vs. Miami Marlins

Garrett Crochet has taken MLB by storm this year.  He continues to mow down hitters at a really solid pace.  Over the last month, he’s been brilliant as he has a near 40% K rate.  We’ve seen him dominate teams like the Dodgers, Astros, Red Sox, Brewers, and Orioles.  He is becoming matchup-proof with how dominant he’s been. 

While I focused on his K’s, he’s also been doing a really solid job of keeping the ball on the ground when hitters do make contact.  His GB rate over the last month is over 43%.  Crochet gets a great matchup today vs. a really bad team in the Marlins.  At 30-58 the Marlins are one of the worst teams in the league, leading only this same White Sox team.  I’m not going to overthink this one.  Crochet is my SP1 today by a country mile. 

Taj Bradley ($8.5k on DK) vs. Texas Rangers

Taj Bradley is quietly having a really strong season for the Rays.  The young right-hander is sporting a 3.42 ERA on the season and has an xFIP even lower than that.  His K/9 on the year is an impressive 11.71.  The one area of concern for Bradley is his propensity to walk batters.  His BB/9 on the year is a concerning 3.25 and over the last month it’s a smidge higher at 3.41. 

I’m willing to overlook that here as he brings us some real K upside at a relatively low price.  We’ve seen him mow down 11 hitters in 2 of his last 4 games.  With the Rangers, we should expect to see a smaller amount of K’s as they don’t K too often.  That said, Bradley is cheap enough that we really only need 6-7 K’s out of him to exceed value.  I think he can get there for us. 

Andrew Heaney is another pitcher that should do well today. The Rays have struggled vs lefties this season and Heaney is underpriced for this matchup.
Other pitchers I like today are going to be McKenzie Gore vs. St. Louis, Hunter Green vs. Detroit, and if you want to risk it and play the trend go with Yariel Rodriguez vs. Seattle. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Baltimore Orioles vs. Luis Medina

Across 24 innings over the last month, Luis Medina has struggled.  He’s pitched to an ERA of 5.92 over that stretch and his xFIP of 5.84 indicates we’re getting what he is.  A bad pitcher.  It hasn’t been all bad as he gave up just 1 ER to both the Dbacks and Royals.  Both of those lineups though have periods where they can get really cold. 

That said, over the last month he has more starts giving up 4 ER than he has given up less than 4 ER.  He should continue to struggle today as he takes on one of the top offenses in the league in the Orioles.  Against righties this season, the Orioles have a .773 OPS and a .208 ISO.  On most nights, they are a pitcher’s worst nightmare. 

Core Bats: Gunner Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander

Secondary Bats:  Ryan O’hearn, Jordan Westburg

Value Bats: Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins

New York Mets vs. Bailey Falter

I’m looking for the Mets to snap their mini 3-game losing streak today.  They were embarrassed by the buckos last night and I can see them returning the favor today.  Bailey Falter has had an up and down season.  We’ve seen him throw some really competent games at times, and then we’ve also seen him struggle at times as evidenced by his 5 ER 2k performance against the Reds a couple of weeks ago. 

Falter is someone who really struggles with control at times.  His BB/9 over the last month is approaching 4 and his WHIP is one of the worst marks on the day at 1.67.  If the New York Mets can be patient here, they can sit on their pitches and get a whole bunch of runners on.  They’ve been one of the better teams in baseball this season against lefties and they face a very beatable lefty today.  Look for them to put up a ton of runs today. 

Core Bats: Pete Alonso, JD Martinez, Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Bats: Brandon Nimmo

Value Bats:  Jose Iglesias, Tyrone Taylor

They aren’t in my top 2, but i also really like the Reds vs. Matt Manning. He struggled earlier in the year and he’ll struggle today as well. Other stacks I like today will be the Giants vs. Logan Allen, Mariners vs. Yariel Rodriguez, Blue Jays vs. Emmerson Hancock, and Rays vs. Andrew Heaney

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

TGIF!  I hope you all had a great Independence Day and were able to celebrate with friends and family.  Although today may feel like the weekend, it’s Friday and that means we have a massive slate.  Tonight, we have a 12-game slate of MLB DFS to play with.  This slate has the potential to be low-scoring as we have just one team that has an implied run total over 5.  That’s the Royals and they’ll be playing in Coors. We have a decent amount of pitching options on this slate. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Tyler Glasnow ($10.8k on DK) vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Tyler Glasnow is not only the best real-life pitcher on this slate, he’s also far and away the best fantasy pitcher as well.  On the year, Glasnow has averaged nearly 24 DK points a game.  After posting back-to-back 35 DK point outings, he had an absolutely miserable last start vs. the Giants.  Things happen and we saw that happen to Chris Sale a few weeks ago where he had a string of dominant outings and then imploded.  His last start was an anomaly and he’ll get back on the saddle tonight. 

His numbers over the last month are pretty crazy.  He has a K rate over 35% and is also inducing an extreme number of groundballs at nearly 52%.  I’m not going to overthink this one tonight.  The Brewers will face their post-Coors hangover and get dominated by Tyler Glasnow.  He’s my SP1 tonight. 

Kevin Gausman ($8.3k on DK) vs. Seattle Mariners

No team in baseball provides a pitcher with the strikeout upside as the Mariners do.  So far in 2024, the Mariners have struck out 912 times.  That’s 60 more times than the nearest team.  Against righties this season, they have a whopping 29% k rate.  If we look at the projected lineup for the Mariners, they have 4 guys who have K rates over 30% against righties. 

While Kevin Gausman may not be what he used to be, he still possesses some strikeout ability as he’s reached double-digit strikeouts multiple times this season.  He’s always at risk of blowing up, so he will be best reserved for GPP’s, but this is the type of matchup tonight that he should excel in.  I’ve been attacking the Mariners with strikeout pitchers all season and I have no plans on stopping any time soon!

Other pitchers I like today are will be Drew Thorpe vs. the Marlins, Tanner Bibbee vs. the Giants, Pablo Lopez vs. the Astros, and Cole Ragans vs. the Rockies.  I also like Reese Olson quite a bit vs. the Reds.  We have plenty of options to work with today.       

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Kansas City Royals vs. Kyle Freeland

While the ERA for Kyle Freeland has been really solid over the last month, his SIERA and xFIP indicate a completely different story.  One of the things that I look for when looking to see if a pitcher is going to show some regression is the difference between their ERA and xFIP.  Freeland’s ERA over the last month is really good at 1.42.  His xFIP however is a full 3 runs higher at 4.71. 

He’s due for some major regression and it’s going to happen tonight at the hands of the Royals.  One of the major reasons for the difference here is that Freeland gives up a boatload of fly balls, while simultaneously giving up a boatload of contact.  He’s also been extremely lucky with a BABIP of just .189.  You can only get so lucky for so long before things start to unravel.  They’ll unravel tonight. 

Core Bats: Sal Perez, Bobby Witt Jr, Vinnie Pasquantino, Hunter Renfroe

Secondary Bats:  Maikel Garcia

Value Bats: Nick Loftin, Freddy Fermin

Oakland Athletics vs. Albert Suarez

Since I’m paying all the way up for the Royals tonight, I need a cheap stack and the A’s will give me that.  Living in Baltimore and having a family that roots for the O’s, I watch just about every O’s game.  I don’t think Suarez is good, at all.  If the O’s weren’t ransacked by injuries to their pitching staff, Suarez would be pitching in Norfolk and not Balitmore. 

Like Freeland, he’s due for some major regression. His ERA over the last month is sitting at just 3.6.  If we look at his xFIP though, it’s nearly 2 runs higher at 5.52.  He’s someone that gives up way too much contact at nearly 83% and has one of the highest line drive %s at nearly 28%.  The A’s are a terrible franchise, but one that should put up some runs tonight at a relatively low cost. 

Core/Value Bats: Brent Rooker (if you can afford him), Zack Geloff, Lawrence Butler, Tyler Soderstrom

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Orioles vs. Hogan Harris, Blue Jays vs. Luis Castillo, Diamondbacks lefties vs. Randy Vasquez, Padres vs. Slade Cecconi, and Rays vs. Michael Lorenzon

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!