MLB

Taco Tuesday!  Tonight we have ourselves a massive 11-game slate of MLB DFS.  Tonight we’ll need to treat MLB DFS like NBA DFS as it’s Deadline Day!  We’ll need to be glued to our phones as trades will have a huge impact on our lineups. Thankfully the deadline is a full hour before the main slate starts. 

Back to the controllables, this slate looks to be a fun one.  We have Robbie Ray making his second appearance of the season, and if it’s anything like his first, we’ll want to make sure we have him as our SP1.  This slate also has a ton of great spots for offense. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Robbie Ray ($8.2k on DK) vs. Oakland Athletics

He’s back!  Robbie Ray returned last week and showed that he still has all the talent in the world that helped him win the 2021 Cy Young Award.  In that outing, he proceeded to strike out 8 Dodgers en route to a 26 DK-point outing.  He gets a much easier task tonight as he faces off against the Oakland Athletics.  While the A’s have been playing better of late, they are still a team with a 24% K rate vs. lefties this season.  They have 4 guys in this lineup that have at least a 30% K rate vs. lefties this season. 

There’s also a very real chance that the heart and soul of this lineup, Brent Rooker, gets traded prior to this game, completely eliminating his power from this lineup.  I’m going to be locking in Robbie Ray as my SP1.  It’s only a matter of time before his price goes back to its rightful place around $10k. 

Hunter Brown ($9k on DK) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Next up for me today will be Hunter Brown of the Houston Astros.  Brown has been very strong of late, with an ERA of 3 over the last month and an xFIP just a smidge higher at 3.67.  He’s coming into this in peak form, having been over 20 DK points in 2 straight and 7 of his last 9 games.  While he’s only been above 30 DK points once this season, he’s been an extremely reliable arm for us and more often than not has been in the mid-20-point range. 

He gets a solid matchup vs. an average Pirates lineup.  On the year, the Pirates have been weak against righties.  They have a 24% K rate vs. them and just a .653 OPS.  They just haven’t been hitting for much power vs. righties, making this pick of Brown a mostly safe one at a very reasonable price for the type of production we’ve been seeing from him.  With

If I was picking a starter out of the arms we have tonight to start a playoff game, Tyler Glasnow would be at the top of the list.  For the purposes of DFS though, he is not.  He’s still in play but he’s the most expensive pitcher on this slate and he lacks the upside I’m looking for out of a $10k pitcher.  Other arms I am interested in are going to be Luis Castillo vs. Boston, Michael Wacha vs. Chicago, and Justin Steele vs. Cincy.  More than likely though, I’m not straying from Ray/Brown.    

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Patrick Corbin and the Nationals bullpen

I added in the bullpen blurb because the Nats bullpen has been atrocious of late.  Over the last 2 weeks, the Nats bullpen has an ERA of 5.54 and an xFIP of 4.63 which also indicates that it is bad.  Ok, back to Corbin.  You all know I love stacking against him.  I haven’t done it as much this season because tbh, he hasn’t been as bad as he normally is.  That said, this matchup is about as bad for Corbin as there possibly is. 

The way you attack Corbin is with righty power and the Dbacks have that.  Against lefties this season, the Dbacks have .762 OPS and a .331 wOBA.  From a handedness matchup, this is about as good as it gets for any of the teams playing tonight.  Righties recently have a nearly 53% hard-hit vs. Corbin this season. 

I’m going to be mostly focused on a handful of guys from this lineup.  Ketel Marte is far and away the top play in this lineup and he’s someone that is going to be a core to my Dbacks stack.  Against lefties this season, Marte has 14 homers and an OPS of 1.113.  He’s been one of the top lefty smashers in baseball this season and although he’s priced high, I’m going to force him into my lineups. 

For some salary savings, I’m going to also look at guys like Gabriel Moreno, Eugenio Saurez, Kevin Newman, and Randal Grichuk.  All of these guys are priced under $4k and have been known to produce against lefties.  Of that group, Suarez is my favorite as he’s been hitting the ball well of late.  The one guy I don’t have mentioned here is Christian Walker.  He left yesterday’s game with an oblique injury and we’ll need to monitor his status.  If he’s in, I like him as well. 

Texas Ranger vs. Lance Lynn

I’m going to go against the grain a bit here and target Lance Lynn.  Lance Lynn has not been good recently.  Over the last month, he’s been terrible with a 5.49 ERA and an xFIP even higher.  He’s been getting rocked as he’s given up 12 barrels in his last 19 innings of work.  Where we want to target Lynn is with lefties.  Not only has his K rate dipped to just 10.9% against them over the last month, but they’re crushing him when they make contact. 

Lefties have a massive 55% hard-hit rate vs. him over the last 30 days and a .459 wOBA.  9 of the 14 homers he’s given up this season have been to lefties.  Thankfully, the Rangers have a bunch of lefties in this lineup.

A Rangers should start with Corey Seager.  Seager has been hitting the ball pretty well lately, with 13 hits in his last 40 AB and a .880 OPS.  He also has a hard-hit rate of nearly 65% over the last 2 weeks.  If you decide to fade a guy like Marte tonight, Seager makes for a nice alternative and probably won’t be as highly owned. 

After Seager, I also want Nate Lowe.  Lowe has been arguably their best hitter since the All-Star break, with 3 homers and 8 RBI.  Other guys that I’ll look to get into this stack today will be Josh Smith, Jonah Heim, Marcus Semien, and Adolis Garcia.  

Other stacks I like today will be the Mets vs. David Fester, Mariners vs. James Paxton, and Braves vs. Frankie Montas.  The Royals vs. Jonathan Cannon and the White Sox pen is also very much in play.  As you can see, there are a lot of great options for offense tonight.

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Happy Saturday Y’all!  Today we’ll have a fairly large slate for a Saturday with a 9-game slate of MLB DFS starting at 7 pm est.  This slate brings us a pitcher in Seth Lugo who is one of the top feel-good stories this season.  It also brings us a bunch of average arms with no true ace.  What it does bring us though is a bunch of bats in good positions to perform.   
Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Seth Lugo ($9.6k on DK) vs. Chicago Cubs

Seth Lugo is turning into a stud right before our eyes.  As a Mets fan, it’s bittersweet.  He was a great bullpen arm for us and all he wanted to do was start.  Now that he’s been getting that chance, he’s been taking full advantage of it.  While I wish the K rate was a little bit higher, this is a slate without a true K guy so I’m willing to overlook his 26% K rate over the last month because there really isn’t much above him with who we have to work with tonight. 

He draws a favorable matchup tonight vs. a Cubs team that sits in last place in the NL Central at 7 games under .500.  With how Milwaukee and the Mets are playing, one has to wonder if Counsell is second-guessing himself for bolting the Brewers and shunning the Mets.  Look for Lugo to be one of the top scoring pitchers on this slate. 

Bryan Woo ($8.3k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

I guess I’m going to be picking on both teams from the Windy City tonight as I’ll look to use Bryan Woo as my second pitcher on DK tonight.  Woo has been up and down this season as he’s been battling health issues and inconsistent pitching.  We’ve seen him throw gems against teams like the A’s and Yankees, but we’ve also seen him throw duds against teams like the Angels.  In his last outing, he had one of his better starts of the season against the Astros. 

With Woo getting one of the best matchups on the board tonight against the White Sox, I’m looking for him to have another strong outing tonight.  The White Sox offense is terrible, having scored the fewest runs in all of baseball and by quite large number.  Woo and his groundball tendencies and ability to limit hard contact should have a nice night tonight. 

The other pitchers I like tonight are going to be Brandon Pfaadt vs. Pittsburgh, Blake Snell vs. Colorado, and Erick Fedde vs. Seattle.      

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Marco Gonzales

In his 5 starts this season, Marco Gonzales hasn’t pitched that poorly.  His ERA is sitting at 2.70.  His xERA however is double that at 5.45 which is in line with his career numbers.  Gonzales’s ERA this season is an outlier and I’m expecting him to regress to his career numbers and I’m expecting that to happen tonight against one of the top teams in the leagues vs. lefties. 

The Diamondbacks have been crushing lefties most of this season, as evidenced by his .757 OPS and .329 wOBA.  I’m going to be mostly focused on the righties in this stack as because Gonzales has historically given up more power to righties than he has lefties.  His strike-out rate also plummets when he faces righties. 

The 2 guys that I’m most interested in here are Ketel Marte and Eugenio Suarez.  Both guys are the hottest hitters in this lineup and both historically crush lefties.  Marte has .454 wOBA and a 1.093 OPS vs. lefties this season.  13 of 22 bombs have also come against lefties.  If we look at his recent production, he’s in peak form and I’m willing to pay his $5.5k salary tonight.  

Next up is Suarez who is significantly cheaper and makes of a strong value play tonight.  He has 11 hits in his last 35 AB and has also homered 3 times over that stretch.  He’ll look to keep the good times rolling tonight in this plus matchup.  Other bats I like here are going to be Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel, Gabriel Moren, and Randal Grichuk.  

Boston Red Sox vs. Marcus Stroman

I’m expecting this Red Sox/Yankees game to be another slugfest. These 2 teams faced off last night and combined for 16 runs.  With the pitching matchup we have tonight, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeat.  I’m going to side with the Red Sox in this one as they get a nice matchup vs. a pitcher in Marcus Stroman who has not been overly strong.  Over the last month, his xFIP is sitting at 4.76 and an ERA of 5.21.  He’s been giving up a ton of hard contact at 38% and has been letting a decent number of hitters on with a 1.53 WHIP. 

His only saving grace is that he hasn’t been giving up too many flyballs with a 37% flyball rate. That said, when hitters do get the ball in the air they’ve been leaving the park.  His HR/FB is sitting at 22.7% over the last month, the highest of anyone pitching tonight. 

I’m going to prioritize the lefties in this matchup as they have a .900 OPS vs. him this season.  That means Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers will be the biggest targets here.  Since we have a salary, if I can only afford one of them this evening I’m going to side ever so slightly with Jarren Duran.  He’s a smidge cheaper and has been a little more productive recently.  He has 18 hits in his last 40 AB and has also scored 12 runs. 

That said, Devers isn’t far behind him with 12 hits in his last 33 AB and a 1.15 OPS.  The value play here I like is going to Masataka Yoshida.  He’s also hitting the ball well right now and comes in at just $3.7k.  Other bats I like her will be Wilyer Abreu, Tyler O’Neill, Dom Smith, and  David Hamilton. 

Other Bats

I think that the Marlins can be sneaky tonight vs. Aaron Civale.  Civale has been getting clobbered and the Marlins have been putting up some runs recently.  My targets here would be Josh Bell, Jake Burger, and Jesus Sanchez.  Angels vs. Mitch Spense are also in play.  Nolan Schanuel, Luis Rengifo, and Logan O’Hoppe would be may targets.  I’ve been on the A’s quite a bit recently but they take on Tyler Anderson and he’s actually been putting up some decent starts so I will more than likely fade them tonight. 

I mentioned the Yanks/Sox game could be a slugfest against tonight so the Yankees vs. Kutter Crawford are in play.  Judge/Soto would be the play but again, we don’t have unlimited cash to play with.  They aren’t a priority but are in play.  Tyler Fitzgerald has been the second coming of Willie Mays recently and would be a bat to play if you want to stack the Giants vs. Ryan Feltner.  A full Giants stack vs. Ryan Feltner is in play. 
 

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TGIF!  It’s Friday and that means we have a full slate of MLB DFS ahead of us.  Tonight we have a massive 12-game slate to work with.  As we approach the trade deadline, we’ll start to see the good teams get better and the bad teams get worse.  The Marlins bullpen took a huge hit yesterday as they traded away AJ Puk.  While they gained some decent prospects, a bad team just got worse.  Early Friday morning, the Rays flipped Aroz to Seattle.  Not sure how much this will impact an already terrible lineup for the Seattle.  Back to tonight’s slate.  It looks to be a solid one with good pitchers throwing against bad teams and good offenses facing bad pitchers. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

George Kirby ($9.6k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

Over the last 4 days, we’ve seen pitchers like Jon Gray, Michael Lorenzen, Nate Eovaldi, and the aging Max Scherzer throw gems vs. this White Sox team.  After seeing what those 4 did vs. them, I can only imagine what a pitcher like George Kirby could do.  Nothing in life is guaranteed and occasionally a blind squirrel will find his nut, but I just don’t see that happening tonight. Kirby is coming into this matchup in peak form. 

Over the last month, he’s pitched to an ERA 2.37 and he has an xFIP nearly identical to it.  He also has a pretty solid 28% K rate over that month.  Kirby gets to take on a terrible White Sox team that has only scored 17 runs while striking out 30% of the time over the last 2 weeks.  Kirby is my SP1 and it’s not even close tonight. 

Drew Thorpe ($6.6k on DK) vs. Seattle Mariners

Because of Thorpe’s price, I’m willing to sacrifice the 4-point W here.  Yes, I’m planning on using 2 pitchers from the same game here.  Why you ask?  They are 2 of the worst offenses in the game right now.  Over the last 2 weeks, the Mariners have struck out 31% of the time and scored just 19 runs.  This is a lineup that has lost both Julio Rodriguez and JP Crawford to injuries over the last week.  While there’s a chance that Aroz suits for them tonight, he’s not going to be one to move the needle enough to make this lineup any better.  He’s having the worst season of his career and by quite a bit. 

Drew Thorpe is also someone who is pitching well.  Over his last 5 starts, he’s been at 19 DK points or greater in 4 of them.  With facing the team with the highest strikeout rate in baseball, we’re chasing a ceiling-type game from a pitcher that is pitching well and is dirt cheap. 

The other pitchers that I’ll be interested in tonight will be Freddy Peralta vs. Miami, Grayson Rodriguez vs. San Diego, and Sonny Gray vs. Washington.       

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Baltimore Orioles vs. Adam Mazur

I said it in Discord yesterday that the Orioles were a smoking time bomb that was ready to go off.  They proceeded to put up 7 runs vs. the fish yesterday and if it wasn’t for some terrible baserunning in the tenth, they would have scored more.  They get another great matchup today that plays into the strengths of the Orioles, a pitcher that is terrible vs. lefties.  Lefties have really been Mazur’s weakness.

They have a .239 ISO and a .442 wOBA vs. him this season.  They also have a 1.032 OPS vs. him.  The way this Orioles lineup is built, it’s going to be a very challenging start for the Padres rookie.  He’s now made 7 starts in the bigs and has given up at least 3 ER in all but 2 of them.  In his last 3 starts, he’s given up at least 4 ER in all of them. 

The bat that I’m going to be most interested in here tonight will be Anthony Santander.  He’s been incredible this season and especially of late.  He has 5 homers over the last 2 weeks and 10 RBI.  With him being a switch hitter, I much prefer to use him when he’s hitting as a lefty as 22 of his 28 homers have come from the left side.  He’s my priority here. 

After him, I’m going to look to include Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, and Ryan O’Hearn.  Cowser is my next priority after Santander as he’s still cheap and hitting the ball well.   He has 10 hits in his last 27 AB and 9 RBI.  That’s a lot of production for someone who is just $3.5k tonight. 

Oakland A’s vs. Carson Fulmer

Carson Fulmer gets to take on the freight train otherwise known as the Oakland Athletics.  Of the teams in action tonight, no one has scored more runs over the last 2 weeks than the Oakland A’s.  Their offense is really clicking right now and it’s helped them bring their run differential down to just -66.  I say “just” because a few weeks ago it was well over 100.  They’ve been putting up a serious number of runs game in and game out when they face a non-ace level pitcher. 

They face that tonight with Fulmer.  While  Fulmer hasn’t pitched that badly, he’s also someone who really hasn’t gone long into games.  The longest he’s gone all season has been 4.2 innings.  His last outing was against this same A’s team and he gave up 3 runs in his 4 innings of work.  The Angels bullpen has a 4.51 xFIP over the last 2 weeks, the 4^th highest number in baseball. 

I’m starting off this stack with the next best thing since sliced bread, Lawrence Butler.  Butler has 19 hits in his last 37 AB, including 6 homers and 17 RBI.  He’s also added 13 runs scored and 7 other XBH.  The dude has been on fire and he’s still priced under $4k.  It’s only a matter of time before his price catches up to his performance. 

While I normally don’t like to play too many hitters out of the 9 hole, I’m in on Max Schuemann today.  Over the last 2 weeks, Max (I’m not trying to spell his last name again) has 13 hits in 34 AB, but more importantly, he’s scored 14 runs thanks to Butler’s ability to knock in runs.  He’s an amazing value at $2.7k tonight.  Other guys I like here are going to be will be MVP candidate Brent Rooker, Miguel Andujar, Seth Brown, and Zack Gelof. 

Other Bats

I’m replacing my ‘other stacks’ sections with one-off bats that I like in today’s matchups.  Nestor Cortes and Shtick have become overrated.  He’s really struggled with righties this season, especially over the last month.  That’s going to lead me to guys like Rob Refsnyder, Tyler O’Neill, and Romy Gonzalez from the Red Sox. 

Next up, I like some Royals lefties vs. Kyle Hendricks.  Guys like Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey, and Kyle Isbel get to take on a pitcher who is giving up a .364 ISO and a .482 wOBA to lefties over the last month.  

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Hump Day!  That’s right, it’s Wednesday and that will mean a split slate for us.  I’ll be focused on the Main Slate of MLB DFS tonight, an 8-game slate starting at 7 pm EST.  This is a slate that at first glance, is going to be another wide-open one.  We have some high-end pitching that is going to be very affordable, meaning we’ll be able to spend up on most bats that we want tonight.  If you’re looking for help on the early slate, I’ll be posting notes in Discord so make sure to drop by and say hello!

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jack Flaherty ($9k on DK) vs. Cleveland Guardians

All of a sudden, the Cleveland Guardians offense has gone extremely silent.  Over the last 2 weeks, they’ve scored just 24 runs.  Of the teams playing tonight, only the White Sox and Padres have scored fewer runs.  Their only saving grace is that they haven’t been striking out too much as they have just a 23% K rate over the last week.  That said, their K rate over the last month is up a few hundred basis points than their season total so they have begun to be a bit more free-swinging. 

Back to Flaherty, he’s been great this season.  As I’m sure you’ve read in my articles before, the reason he’s pitching so well is that he’s finally getting the ball over the zone.  His BB/9 are significantly lower than they’ve ever been and that’s translated to him being able to go longer into games.  He’s coming off an 8 K game against the Blue Jays and while I don’t think he has that level of upside here, I do see him getting 6-7 while not allowing much damage.  He’s my SP1 tonight. 

Nathan Eovaldi ($8.8k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

Over the last 2 nights, we’ve seen guys like Michael Lorenzen and Jon Gray throw “masterpieces” against this White Sox team.  Both of them have been below average all season.  This speaks to how bad the White Sox have been not only recently, but this season as a whole.  At 27-76, they are the only team in baseball yet to crack 30 wins.  At a -193, they have by far the worst run differential in all of baseball as well. 

I will continue to pick on them with pitchers and we get a decent one tonight.  While he’s coming off a less-than-stellar start vs. the Orioles, before that had reached at least 20 DK in 6 of his previous 8 starts.  With this type of matchup today, look for Eovaldi to put his past start behind him and crack 20 DK points once again.    

The other pitchers I have interest in tonight will be Tanner Bibee vs. Detroit, Gerrit Cole vs. the Mets, and Yariel Rodriguez vs. the Rays.  Tyler Glasnow is also very much in play tonight as he returns from the IL.  I do think however that he will be on a pitch count, severely limiting his upside tonight, especially as the most expensive pitcher on the slate.  I will be fading him.      

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Texas Rangers vs. Chris Flexen

I wish the Rangers were coming into this one swinging a little, but I’ll cut them some slack because they have been facing decent pitching.  Tonight’s a different story as they face one of the best slump-busters in the business in Chris Flexen.  Flexen is a terrible pitcher.  He had a few good seasons coming back from Korea, but the last 2 seasons have seen him regressed back to the same he was before he was forced to find employment overseas. 

This season he has an ERA of 5.22 and an xFIP nearly identical to that at 5.10.  He’s walking more batters than he has since back in 2018 and has a WHIP 1.40.  He’s a low strikeout pitcher that gives up a lot of flyballs.  Flexen has also given up 17 homers already so he’s someone that we can absolutely chase power against. 

While he’s mostly been a reverse splits pitcher in his career, lefties have done him in this season.  They have a .275 ISO and a .369 vs. him.  11 of the 17 homers against this season have been to hitters from the left side.  That means I’m going to prioritize putting guys like Corey Seager, Josh Smith, and Nate Lowe in my stack.  Corey Seager leads the Rangers in homers against righties this season and has a .893 OPS vs. them.  He’ll be the priority for me here. 

While I’ll focus on the lefties here, I also really want a piece of both Adolis Garcia and Marcus Semien.  If I can only afford one of them, I’ll look to Semien as he’s been hot at the plate, with 12 hits in his last 33 AB.  He also has homered 10 times vs. righties this season.  This whole team is in play tonight as they’ll also get to face one of the worst bullpens in the game. 

Baltimore Orioles vs. Edward Cabrera

Another team that has somewhat been quite offensively but can go off at any moment is the Baltimore Orioles.  They’ll get to face off against a very inconsistent pitcher in Edward Cabrera.  Cabrera has all the talent in the world.  But he also has lapses where he just looks like an average-at-best AAA pitcher.  I’m going to be chasing those mistakes with one of the more powerful lineups in the game in the Orioles. 

I’m going to chase his weakness and that weakness is one of the Orioles strengths, lefties.  Lefties have just been embarrassing Cabrera of late.  Over he last 30 days, lefties have an insane .643 ISO and a .597 wOBA Vs him.  While that’s exaggerated, lefties also have a .333 ISO vs. him this season and a .447 wOBA.  They also strike out significantly less vs. him.

That will mean I’ll make sure that I have Gunnar Henderson in my lineup tonight.  He’s due big time and I think he breaks out of his slump big time tonight and gets home run number 29.  His numbers vs. righties this season are very strong, at .415 wOBA and a .982 OPS.  22 of his 28 bombs have also come against righties. 

The next guy I’m going to look to for the Orioles is their hottest hitter, Anthony Santander.  A case could be made that he would be my priority here as he is as locked in as ever, with 4 homers over the last 2 weeks and 9 RBI.  He’s been carrying this offense and he’ll carry us to the promised land tonight.  Other guys I have an interest in here are Ryan O’Hearn, Colton Cowser, and Cedric Mullins.  Mullins is a strong value at $3.5k. 

Other stacks I like today will be the Dodgers vs. Robby Ray (making his first start since March 2023), Royals vs. Ryne Nelson, and Nationals vs. Matt Waldron.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Taco Tuesday!  It’s Tuesday and that means we have ourselves a large slate of MLB DFS.  Tonight, we’ll have 11 games to navigate through.  This slate brings us a pitcher with a rebirth type of season and a young gun that will more than likely be limited due to being on the trade block.  We also have another shot at Coors and also some really solid spots for bats. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Logan Gilbert ($10k on DK) vs. Los Angeles Angels

I will more than likely only spend up on one pitcher tonight.  The choice for me will be to go with either Chris Sale or Logan Gilbert.  While Chris Sale is the pitcher who has more upside in most outings, I’m siding with Gilbert tonight.  The Angels are a whole lot easier of a matchup than the Reds are.  Over the last 2 2 weeks, the Angels have scored just 38 runs compared to the 58 of the Reds. 

What Gilbert lacks in the K department, he should make up for in the length department tonight as this is just a bad Angels team.  Gilbert for his part has pitched really well of late, with a 3.12 ERA and a nearly 26% K rate over the last month.  He’s gotten up into the 30 DK point territory in 3 of his last 6 outings, with one of those against these same Los Angeles Angels.  He’s my SP1 tonight, with Chris Sale right behind him. 

Jon Gray ($7k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

This pick isn’t for the faint of heart.  Jon Gray has been terrible over the last month or so, with an 8.4 ERA and an xFIP and SIERA that are equally as high.  I’m going to cut him a bit of slack though as he’s faced some stiff competition in the Orioles twice and the Padres once. 

A few weeks ago he did put up a 22-point gem vs. the Royals and I think he has that type of upside tonight.  Last night Michael Lorenzen threw an 8-K outing against this same White Sox team.  If Lorenzen can silence the Sox, I don’t see why Gray can’t.  He’s risky but for GPP’s in this type of matchup, I do think he has some upside. 

Other pitchers that I do like tonight are going to be the aforementioned Chris Sale vs. the Reds, Zack Wheeler against a tough Minnesota Twins lineup, Jameson Taillon vs. a struggling Brewers lineup, and Luis Gil vs. the Mets.  I want to touch on Garrett Crochet for a second.  In his last outing, it was mentioned that they were going to start to monitor his innings and he went on to pitch just 2 innings.  Under normal circumstances, he’d be in the SP1 convo.  But we don’t know how many innings he’s going to pitch, especially with him on the trading block and the deadline being next week.      

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Kansas City Royals vs. Jordan Montgomery.

Jordan Montgomery’s time with the Dbacks has not gone according to plan.  Across his 13 starts, Montgomery has posted a 6.44 ERA.  While he’s been a bit unlucky as he has an xFIP 2 runs lower, he’s still been terrible.  His K/9 are at an all-time low and his BB/9 are the highest they have been since he wore pinstripes in 2018.  He is just a shell of what he was in the playoffs last season and you have to wonder how much he’s regretting turning down that contract extension. 

He’s going to have his hands full tonight as he’s facing off against a Royals team that has come out swinging since the All-Star Break.  In the 4 games they’ve played, they’ve scored 27 runs.  They’ll look to continue to add to that total tonight. 

Core Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Hunter Renfroe, Maikel Garcia

Secondary Bats:  Vinnie Pasquantino

Value Bats: Garrett Hampson, Freddy Fermin, Dalton Blanco

Boston Red Sox vs. Ty Blach

I’m going back to the well with the Red Sox tonight.  The Red Sox get a great matchup vs. a bad pitcher in Ty Blach.  Blach is a career 5.21 ERA pitcher.  There is nothing about him that should scare hitters, at least if you’re a righty.  Blach has now been in the big leagues since 2016 and hasn’t had a season with an ERA under 5 since back in 2018.  While both sides of the plate have done damage against him in his career, it’s really the righties that we want to focus on. 

They have a .369 wOBA vs. him and an OPS of .867. In 2024, that OPS against righties has ballooned up to nearly 1.000.  48 of the 63 homers he’s allowed in his career have been to righties.  The Red Sox should be able to throw out 6 righties tonight, making this a really tough matchup for Blach. 

Core Bats: Tyler O’Neill, Rob Refsnyder, Romy Gonzalez, Ceddanne Rafaela

Secondary Bats: Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran

Value Bats:  Dominic Smith, Masataka Yoshida

Other stacks I like today will be the surging Oakland A’s (they have some strong value), Dodgers vs. Jordan Hicks, Rays vs. Jose Berrios, Dbacks vs. Alec Marsh, and Yankees vs. Jose Quintana

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Happy Saturday Y’all! In what is rare for a Saturday, we have ourselves a main slate of MLB DFS starting at 7.  Tonight, we’ll have 9 games on DK and 8 games on FD starting.  This is an interesting-looking slate at first glance, with a couple of really strong pitchers and some great spots for hitting.  It’s far from a wide-open slate though. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Dylan Cease ($9.7k on DK) vs. Cleveland Guardians

This spot is going to be a huge dilemma for me tonight.  There are few pitchers in the game today who possess the upside that Dylan Cease offers.  He has the third-highest K/9 in baseball at 11.66.  Only Garrett Crochet and Tyler Glasnow have higher K/9 than Cease.  While he has a handful of games this season scoring more than 30 DK points, he also has a handful of games this season scoring less than 10.  He’s the epitome of a GPP pitcher. 

He has one of the highest ceilings in the game, but he also has a very low floor.  The good thing for us here is that the Guardians offense has mostly stalled of late, scoring just 35 runs over the last 2 weeks.  Only a few teams have scored less than them.  Yes, they put up a 7 spot but they were dominated by Matt Waldron last night.  I’m going to risk it with Cease tonight because again, he possesses so much K upside compared to the field. 

Brady Singer ($8.1k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

I’m going to go a bit cheaper with my SP2 tonight.  Brady Singer gets arguably the best matchup on paper tonight.  The White Sox are turrible.  They have the worst record in baseball at 27-72 and it’s not even close.  They are also 1 of just 3 teams that have a run differential of at least -100.  They are pushing a run differential of -200 at this point.  While Singer isn’t known to be a huge strike out guy, he does have the ability to get around 6-7 K’s in a neutral matchup. 

This isn’t a neutral matchup as the White Sox offense is epicly bad.  They’ve struck out 28% of the time over the last couple of weeks and have scored just 26 runs.  What Singer lacks in the K department, he should make up for in length tonight.  I’m locking him in as my SP2. 

The other pitchers I have an interest in today will be Grayson Rodriguez vs. Texas, Pablo Lopez vs. Milwaukee, Sonny Gray vs. Atlanta, and Framber Valdez vs. Seattle.       

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Kansas City Royals vs. Jonathan Cannon

I mentioned above that the Chicago White Sox have the worst run differential in the game at -183.  Only the Rockies have given up more runs than the White Sox and they somewhat get a pass as they play half their games in Coors.  Outside of Garrett Crochet, this pitching staff is atrocious and it’s followed by a bullpen that is even worse. This is a bullpen that has the third-worst ERA in baseball this season. 

Back to Cannon as he’s been terrible.  Over the last month, Cannon has an ERA of 6.27 and xFIP and SIERA that aren’t much better as they are hovering north of 5.  He’s allowed 4 homers and 7 barrels over his last 20 innings of work.  He’s someone that we can rely on to let hitters put the ball in play as he also has an 84% contact rate over that same 20-inning stretch.  He’s a low-strikeout pitcher that gives up a ton of contact.  That’s where magic tends to happen. 

The Royals broke out for 7 runs last night thanks to a monster game from Bobby Witt Jr.  He’s going to be the core to this Royals stack tonight as he’s one of the best hitters in the league.  He has 13 hits in his last 32 AB and has combined for 14 runs and rbi.  He’s heating up and in this matchup should smash.  14 of his 17 homers this season have come against righties and he has a .953 OPS against them in 2024.  He’s going to cost an arm and a leg tonight, but he’s worth it. 

After Witt, I’m going to focus on getting some lefties into this stack as Cannon has allowed a .407 wOBA to them and an OPS of .956.  That means guys like Vinnie Pasquantino, and Michael Massey will be in play.  If you want to get some value, Kyle Isbel is also in play as he’s just $2.8k tonight. 

Boston Red Sox vs. Justin Wrobleski

I think the Red Sox could be a sneaky bunch tonight.  If we look at Wrobleski’s starts this season, they have not been good.  He currently owns a 6.30 ERA in his young career.  He’s allowed 4 homers in just his 10 innings of work and he’s also allowed 6 barrels thanks a high flyball rate and a very high hard-hit rate. 

Also, across the 2 starts the Dodgers have allowed a combined 20 runs.  Those 2 starts weren’t really against lineups that I’d call scary either as they were against the Brewers and Tigers.  While the Red Sox typically do strike out quite a bit vs. lefties, they can hit for some power as they have an average OPS over .700. 

I’m going to focus on a few bats here.  First, I’ll look to Tyler O’Neill.  He’s crushed lefties, with a .437 wOBA and an OPS of 1.053.  Yes, he also K’s a bunch vs. lefties but with Wrobleski being a low K guy I’m not going to be overly concerned with the strikeouts here.  Since I’m spending up on the Royals, after O’Neill I’m going to look to some value and this lineup will have that for us today. 

Rob Refsnyder, Connor Wong, Jamie Westbrook, and Ceddanne Rafaela are all under $4k and will be able to help us round out the lineup here without costing us much.  While I’m focused on the righties here, guys like Rafael Dever and Jarren Duran also going to be very much in play here as Wrobleski has been terrible vs. lefties. 

Other stacks I like today will be the Dodgers vs. Brayan Bello, Giants vs. Kyle Freeland, and Orioles vs. Max Scherzer.  The Diamondbacks can also be a sneaky spot for offense tonight vs. Kyle Hendricks, especially the lefties like Joc Pederson, Alek Thomas, and Geraldo Perdomo. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Were you and a loved one forced to spend time together over the last few days thanks to the MLB All-Star break?  Well, have no fear because that time is over.  Baseball is back and I’m more excited than ever to jump back into some MLB DFS.  Tonight we have a massive 11-game slate of MLB DFS to work with this.  At first glance, this is a fun-looking slate that can take us in many different directions. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jack Flaherty ($9.5k on DK) vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Thanks to a bad back, Jack Flaherty somewhat hobbled into the break.  He did however post a 6-inning gem, allowing a 1 ER to a very potent Guardians lineup.  He’s been one of the top pitchers in baseball this season, with a 3.13 ERA and a K/9 of 11.27.  What has helped Flaherty this season has been the ability to get the ball over the plate.  His BB/9 of just 1.52 is a career-low and well below his career average of 3.19.  If he can continue to not walk hitters, he’ll be in the Cy Young convo just like he was back in 2019. 

This is a solid matchup for him tonight vs. a Blue Jays team that has disappointed and will more than likely be a seller at the deadline in a couple of weeks.  The one knock on this matchup tonight is that the Blue Jays aren’t a huge strikeout team, evidenced by their season-long k rate of just 19% vs. righties.  That said, over the last month they have struck out 24% of the time vs. righties so they’ve become more of a free-swinging team.  Look for Flaherty to have a strong night coming out of the break. 

Hunter Brown ($8,4k on DK) vs. Seattle

I’ve been targeting the Mariners with righties all season long and that trend will continue tonight.  I’ve been targeting them vs. righties because they have a massive 29% K rate vs. them this season.  If we look at the projected lineup for tonight’s game, that number balloons up to nearly 40% over the last month.  This lineup has 7 guys with a K rate over 30% vs. righties over the last 30 days.  Just crazy stuff. 

That shouldn’t take away from Brown; I’d recommend him vs. most teams.  He’s someone who has been underpriced all season long and remains underpriced tonight at his $8.4k salary on DK.  Over his last 7 starts, he has 6 over 18 DK points and 5 over 23.  This is a ceiling-type game for him this evening. 

The other pitchers I have an interest in today will be Gerrit Cole vs. Tampa, Michael Wacha vs. Chicago, and Sean Manea vs. Miami.          

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Colorado Rockies vs. Kyle Harrison

I for one am not a huge fan of Coors slates.  Even though they can be fun, you’ll always need to make the decision “do I play Coors or do I fade Coors”.  I’m playing Coors tonight and I’m going to side with the Rockies side of things.  For starters, of all the pitchers going tonight, no one has a higher xFIP or SIERA over the last 30 days than Kyle Harrison. 

Granted, it’s only been 2 starts but if we look at the metrics of those 2 starts they haven’t been good.  While he gave up just 1 ER to the Twins he got battered in the start, allowing a nearly 65% hard-hit rate.  The start before was worse as he allowed 4 ER to the Guardians in just 3 innings of work. 

If we look at the Rockies lineup, they’ve been much better vs. lefties than righties.  Brendon Doyle has led the way and has been one of the better hitters vs. lefties this season.  On the year, Doyle has a .829 OPS vs. them and has been even better vs. late, with a .481 wOBA and a .379 ISO.  He’s going to be a core bat for me in this stack tonight, even at his $5k price. 

Another bat I like here will be Michael Toglia and his 9 homers vs. lefties this season.  His price of $4.3k is very reasonable, especially considering the environment and his production vs. southpaws this season.  I’ll round out this stack with guys like Ezequiel Tovar, Brendan Rogers, Jacob Stallings, and Elias Diaz. 

Oakland Athletics vs. Griffin Canning

If you know me, you know I love attacking Griffin Canning.  He’s someone who just gives up a whole ton of contact and more often than not, that contact is considered hard contact.  Over his last 6 starts, Canning has given up at least 4 ER in 4 of them.  His season-long ERA is sitting at a high 4.84 and his xFIP and SIERA are both hovering around that number as well. 

He’s terrible and I plan on attacking him tonight with a lineup that has put up some monster numbers over the last couple of weeks.  I need to preface this with that they are a high risk as they can go very quiet, very quickly.  That said, they are mostly cheap tonight and again, facing a gas can in Griffin Canning.

I’ll start off this stack with the man, the myth, the legend, Lawrence Butler.  Butler wrapped up the first half with a 3 homer, 6 RBI game vs. the Phillies.  Over his last 41 AB, he’s had 8 barrels and a 60% hard-hit rate.  Against righties this season he’s up to 9 homers and 25 RBI.  His price tag of just $3k on DK tonight will allow for a ton of flexibility. 

I’m also going to be on Shea Langeliers tonight.  He’s tied for the team lead in homers against righties this season with 14 and has also driven in 40 runs vs. them.  He’s also a nice value at just $3.9k.  The main hitter in this lineup though is Brent Rooker.  He’s been dynamite over the last couple of weeks, with 20 hits in his last 41 AB and 6 homers.  I’ll make sure to plug him into this stack.  Other bats to include here will be Max Schuermann, Seth Brown, and Zack Gelof.

Other stacks I like today will be the Mets vs. Edward Cabrera, Giants vs. Cal Quantrill, Angels vs. JP Sears, and Dodgers vs. Nick Pivetta. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Happy Saturday Y’all!  Today we’ll have 2 fairly decent slates to play with it being Saturday.  I’m going to be focused on the 8-game slate of MLB DFS starting at 4pm EST.  This is a slate that lacks a real clear path for pitching.  The 5 most expensive pitches face really strong offenses in the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Royals, and Astros.  I’m more than likely going to fade those pitchers and go with pitchers in the mid-tier as they present the best possible matchups. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Andrew Abbott ($8.5k on DK) vs. Miami Marlins

Andrew Abbott is in a nice stretch of pitching right now.  We have to go back to May to find a game where he gave up more than 3 ER.  Over the last month, Abbott has pitched to an ERA of 2.48.  While the xFIP and SIERA are considerably higher and show that he’s due for some negative regression, I don’t see it happening quite yet and I don’t see it happening at the hands of the Miami Marlins. 

The Marlins have been dreadful vs. lefties this season as they have an OPS of .596 and a wOBA of .264.  They have done little to no damage at all against them.  For Abbott’s sake, he’s coming off one of his best starts of the season, a 7 inning game that saw him give up 0 ER and strike out 8 Rockies.  A duplicate of that outing is very much in play for him today. 

Christian Scott ($7.1k on DK) vs. Colorado Rockies

I preach that in DFS when looking for pitchers, we need to find pitchers who have extreme K upside.  While Christian Scott hasn’t shown that much of late, he does have that ability deep down inside him.  Throughout his minor league career, he was someone that had a K/9 of 10 or higher, more often than not it being higher than 10. 

He gets to face a team in the Rockies that has struck out more than 25% of the time this season to righties and has struck out more than 31% of the time over the last week.  This projected lineup for the Rockies today has 6 guys in it who have K rates over 23% to righties over the last 30 days.  I’m chasing a ceiling-type game here for the Mets young righty. 

The other pitcher I have an interest in today will be Tyler Phillips of the Phillies.  He was masterful in his big league debut and he gets a tasty matchup today vs. Oakland.  The quartet of Grayson Rodriguez, Seth Lugo, Luis Gil, and Nathan Eovaldi are all in play, I just think they have a more floor-type game due to the matchups they face today.      

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Mitch Spense

The Philadelphia Phillies are heading into the All-Star Break healthy and that should scare the rest of baseball.  This week they got both Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper back.  There is also the very real possibility that JT Realmuto will make his return either today or tomorrow.  That will make one of the most feared lineups in baseball, whole again. 

They get a great matchup today vs. a pitcher in Mitch Spense that plays right into the wheelhouse of the Phillies, lefty power.  Over the last 30 days, lefties have a .283 ISO and a .397 wOBA vs. Spence.  Lefties also have a .472 slugging % vs. him.  The heart and soul of this Phillies lineup is lefty and with what I plan on spending on pitching today, I should be able to afford the meat of this lineup.

Core Bats: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh

Secondary Bats:  Treat Turner, Alec Bohm

Value Bats: Johan Rojas, Garrett Stubbs

Texas Ranger vs. Spencer Arrighetti

If we take out Spencer Arrighetti’s game against the Rockies (Reason A why I’m on Christian Scott), we can see a pitcher who has really struggled.  He’s given up 7 ER to the Tigers and 6 to the Blue Jays. He’s someone that has plenty of blow-up games under his belt and I think he has another one today vs. a very competent Texas Rangers’ lineup.  Of the teams playing today, the Rangers have scored the third most runs of any team over the last week. 

They also line up really well today with Arrighetti.  Arrighetti really struggles vs. lefties (vs. righties too).  They have a .300 ISO and a .469 wOBA vs. him over the last month.  They also have an OPS over 1.000 vs. him this year.  I’m going to be lock and loading all the lefties I can here. 

Core Bats: Corey Seager, Josh Smith, Nate Lowe

Secondary Bats: Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia

Value Bats:  Jonah Heim, Leody Taveras, Travis Jankowski

Other stacks I like today will be the Mets vs. Ryan Feltner, Orioles vs. Luis Gil, and Guardians vs. Zack Littell. Nats vs. Dallas Keuchel also very much in play!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!