Special live stream this evening as David (@DeepDiveGolf) to give a weather update on Hurricane Debby and what impact this will have on the Wyndham Championship.
Each day we will be displaying the players and props that show the highest win rates of their current prop line at the time of posting. For example, if a player is listed with a win rate of 90% on “over 1.5 hits,” that means that in 9 out of the last 10 games they went over 1.5 hits. We’re doing some of the legwork for you, but it doesn’t mean that we’re suggesting to bet all of these. You still need to factor in match ups and other relevant information, and keep in mind that the hit rate is based on the current line at the time of posting, and is subject to change.
These are the highest percentage win rates of the top MLB player props today.
These are the highest rated win rates over the past 10 games but to see the highest edges based on our proprietary player projections click here.
Now to see the hand selected MLB player prop bets from our betting pros check them out here.
Hump Day! That’s right, it’s Wednesday and that means we’ll have a couple of different slates to play with. I’ll be focused on the 7-game main slate of MLB DFS starting at 7 pm EST. This slate is top-heavy with lefty aces. We have Sale, Ragans, and Skubal on the hill tonight in what looks to be pretty tough matchups. At the bottom of the barrel, we’ll also have some really great spots for offense.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
This is a tough slate for pitching. Even though we have some studs on the mount in Sale and Skubal, they are in incredibly tough matchups. The matchup with the Brewers for Sale is a tough one. Over the last 30 days, the Brewers have struck out just 20% of the time vs. lefties. They also have a wOBA of .355. This really lowers the ceiling for the most expensive pitcher on the slate. I am more than likely out on him.
Next up is Skubal. Earlier in the year, pitchers vs. the Mariners were a guarantee. Not anymore, and especially not with some of the additions they made. This is a much deeper lineup than it was a few weeks ago, even with Julio out. Again, this is a matchup that lowers the ceiling of Skubal and he’s priced just behind Sale. I’m not saying that these 2 aren’t in play, just that the matchup on paper isn’t great and they will have lower ceilings than normal.
This too isn’t the easiest of matchups as the Red Sox can put up a bunch of runs in a heartbeat. That said, they are an extremely high strike-out team vs. lefties and they’re facing a lefty that can strike some people out, as evidenced by his 25% K rate over the last month. This Red Sox lineup has 4 guys in it that have K rates well over 30% vs. lefties over the last month.
If we dial that back to 25%, that would be 7 of the 9 guys. Everyone in this lineup has power against lefties, but they have to be able to hit the ball in order to hit for power. With this matchup and Ragan’s K ability, an 8 K game giving up 2-3 runs is very much in play and at a $9k salary would still hit value nicely.
The Atlanta Braves are really struggling right now. They were completely dominated by Colin Rea last night as he went on to throw 7 shutout innings and strike out 9 Braves. The game before that, they were shut out by the Marlins as Edward Cabrera went 5 innings and struck out 8. They are lost at the plate and we can attack them tonight with Freddy Peralta.
The big concern for Freddy P is that he just throws a ton of pitches and that causes him to rarely go past 6 innings. That said, his price is the lowest I’ve seen this season and with this matchup, he should easily outperform the $8.5k salary. He faced the Braves a week ago and struck out 7 in 6 innings. A repeat performance is not out of the question.
Other pitchers that I’ll be interested in will be Taj Bradley vs. St. Louis, George Kirby vs. Detroit, and Erick Fedde vs. Tampa.
Kutter Crawford is in the midst of a brutal stretch of pitching. Over his last 3 games, he’s allowed 16 ER and a mind-boggling 12 homers. This isn’t the first stretch this season where he’s been like this. There was also a stretch back in May/June that saw him give up 15 ER over 3 games as well so this is not necessarily an anomaly or bad luck. He’s someone that will have lapses in quality pitching and that’s what we’re seeing right now.
It’s not going to get much easier for him today as he’s facing off against a strong lineup in the Royals. The Royals have been pretty solid against righties this season as they have a .167 ISO vs. them and a .730 OPS. I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits here as both righties and lefties have had almost identical numbers vs. him this season. That said, lefties have a .591 ISO and a .528 wOBA vs. him over the last month. Both are laughable numbers.
That means our good old friend Vinnie Pasquantino will be my priority here. He continues to lead this offense, not letting Bobby Witt overshadow him. Over the last week, Vinnie has 12 hits and has also driven in 13 runs. He’s been in double-digit DK points in 6 of his last 7 games and that should continue this evening.
I’ll also look to both MJ Melendez and Michael Massey here. As is always the case, Witt is 100% in play if you have the cash lying around for him. Other bats I like here are Hunter Renfroe and Freddy Fermin. Both guys are hot at the plate right now.
The Orioles burned us last night but the great thing about DFS is that we get to start all over again. Chris Bassitt was brilliant last night, there’s no other way to put it. He had command of all his pitchers and left the Orioles off balance all game long. Kudos to him. Today should be different. The Blue Jays will turn the ball over to Bowden Francis this evening. He’s appeared in 18 games so far this season and has started in 4 games.
This season has been a real struggle for him. Compared to his first full season in the bigs, his K’s are way down, his walks are way up, and his HR/9 are nearly double. In just 44 innings of work, he’s already given up 10 bombs and has an ERA that’s pushing 6.
I said it yesterday and I’ll keep saying, Jackson Holliday looks like a completely different player than he was during his first call up. He looks way more confident and his swing looks way better. He has hits in all but one game since his call up and has already homered 3 times over the last week. He’s still super cheap at $3.2k, but that will change so we need to take advantage of it now.
After Holliday, I’ll get guys like Santander, Henderson, Mountcastle, and Mullins. Adley has been quiet for what feels like months, but he has started to put together better AB. It’s only a matter of time before he breaks back through with a monster game.
Other stacks I like tonight will be both sides of the Coors game, Dodgers vs. Tyler Phillips, and the Blue Jays vs. Trevor Rogers. If you’re looking for a one-off play, Guerrero’s numbers vs. lefties over the last month are video game like. He has a .857 ISO and a .829 wOBA. I’ll be putting some money on him to homer tonight.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
The Wyndham Championship is the last chance saloon for many golfers to qualify for the FedEx Cup playoffs! Who will make the cut? But, more importantly, who will win the Wyndham Championship PGA Draftcast this week?
Our selections have been on absolute FIRE lately. Resident golf analyst and man from the future, David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf), and @DraftMasterFlex both gave out Hideki Matsuyama as FRL 35/1 last week! David had 3/6 selections finish in the top 10, including Matsuyama in Bronze at 35/1.
Each day we will be displaying the players and props that show the highest win rates of their current prop line at the time of posting. For example, if a player is listed with a win rate of 90% on “over 1.5 hits,” that means that in 9 out of the last 10 games they went over 1.5 hits. We’re doing some of the legwork for you, but it doesn’t mean that we’re suggesting to bet all of these. You still need to factor in match ups and other relevant information, and keep in mind that the hit rate is based on the current line at the time of posting, and is subject to change.
These are the highest percentage win rates of the top MLB player props today.
These are the highest rated win rates over the past 10 games but to see the highest edges based on our proprietary player projections click here.
Now to see the hand selected MLB player prop bets from our betting pros check them out here.
Taco Tuesday! It’s Tuesday and that means a large slate. Tonight we have ourselves a massive 11-game slate of MLB DFS. With a loss tonight, the Chicago White Sox would break the AL record losing streak. They’d also inch a game closer to the all-time record of 23, set by the 1961 Phillies. After that, tonight slates brings us some underwhelming, but solid arms in plus matchups. We also have some bats like the Mets and Yankees in great spots to put up some runs.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
The ERA for Sonny Gray is a little wonky over the last month at 5.19. He had a couple of disappointing starts vs. the Nationals in there where he gave up 5 ER a piece and that has skewed that number a bit. He came back to the old Sonny Gray in his last start vs. the Cubs, a 9-k 7-inning gem that saw him net 26 DK points. With a matchup against the gutted Rays, I can see a similar outing out of him this evening.
The Rays are now without Aroz, Amed Rosario, and Parades. They are a much weaker lineup than they were a month ago, even with newcomers Christopher Morel and Dylan Carlson. The projected lineup tonight for the Rays has a 30% K rate vs. righties over the last month and a sub .300 wOBA. This is a smash spot for Gray tonight. I have him as my SP1.
Thanks to the gem thrown by Dave Festa last night, the Cubs managed to strike out a combined 14 times. This is a lineup that at times can be extremely weak and we saw that last night as they were shut out. With the weather conditions being conducive to pitching and Pablo Lopez on the hill, I would not be shocked to see them put up just a run or 2 again tonight. Lopez is coming into this tilt in great form.
Over the last month, Lopez has just a 2.52 ERA and an xFIP of 3.19. He’s hit at least 23 DK points in 3 straight games and 5 of his last 7 games. His only bad outing over that stretch was against a much better lineup in the Astros. The forecast for tonight’s game is “chilly” at 70 degrees, but more importantly, the winds will be blowing in at 20 MPH. If you follow baseball enough, you know there’s no stadium in baseball impacted by the weather more than Wrigley. Look for this to be a low-scoring affair with Lopez and the Twins coming out on top.
Other pitchers I’ll like tonight will be Luis Gil vs. the Angels, Shota Imanaga vs. Minnesota, and Luis Castillo vs. Detroit.
Don’t’ get me wrong here, I like the entire Orioles squad tonight. That said, I’m going to prioritize the lefties in this matchup. Over the last 30 days, Bassitt has been getting crushed by them. They have a .434 wOBA and a .196 ISO vs. him. Bassitt is also giving up a nearly 50% hard-hit rate vs. them and also a nearly 30% fly ball rate.
This is a spot where we can go home run chasing and if you know the Orioles, you know their power comes from the lefties. Of the 12 homers he’s given up this season, 9 have been to lefties.
That will mean I’ll look to prioritize in this stack Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Ryan O’Hearn, Colton Cowser, and Jackson Holliday. After really struggling in his first cup of coffee, Holliday looks like a completely different hitter. In the 18 AB he’s had since his call-up, he has 7 hits and 2 homers. He’s also driven in 7 runs since his call-up. He’s still just $3.1k on DK, opening up a ton of salary relief so we can afford Gunnar and possibly Santander.
For a while there, Santander was the play but Gunnar has come alive over his last 2 games. His homer on Sunday was his first in nearly 3 weeks and he also has 6 hits in his last 2 games. He’s one of my favorite plays on this entire slate. I’m going also going to make sure Cowser gets into my stack. He’s red hot at the plate, with 21 hits in his last 53 AB. Cowser has also combined for 27 runs and RBI over the last 2 weeks. $4.3k is a very reasonable price tag for his recent production and he’s leading off.
The Royals should be able to score a whole bunch of runs tonight against Brayan Bello. Brayan Bello has a very clear weakness and that’s lefty power. Of the 17 bombs he’s given up this season, 11 have been to lefties and they have an .849 OPS vs. him. He’s been especially bad vs. them over the last 30 days as they have a 52% hard-hit rate and greater than 30% line drive rate. This is an exploitable spot.
While I’ll be stacking the Royals here, Bobby Witt isn’t a necessity to this spack. Especially knowing that Gunnar will be manning SS in my stacks. I plan on loading up on Vinnie Pasquantino and MJ Melendez here. Melendez has been on fire vs. righties over the last month. Over his last 38 AB vs. righties, he has a .432 ISO and a .399 wOBA. He’s super cheap tonight at $3.2k on DK tonight. We’ll need the payroll flexibility to fit in Vinnie Pasquantino.
Although the focus has been on Witt’s epic run, Vinnie has been the hottest hitter on this team over the last couple of weeks. Over his last 54 AB, he has 19 hits and 5 homers. Over the last 2 weeks, he leads the team in OPS at 1.05 and wRC at 13. Vinnie has also driven in 16 runs over the last 2 weeks. Bobby Witt is certainly in play here, but again, I’m just not going to force him in.
Yankees vs. Davis Daniel – Outside of Aaron Judge, I’d prioritize the lefties here. Daniel has just a 14% k rate vs. them over the last 30 days and has given up a nearly .340 wOBA. Soto, Wells, Jazz, and Ben Rice.
Mariners vs. Keider Montero – He’s given up 7 homers in his last 28 innings and has allowed a nearly 40% hard-hit rate. Victor Robles, Justin Turner, and Aroz.
A’s vs. Jonathan Cannon – Rooker, Butler, Andujar, and Shea would be by plays
Both sides of the Coors game.
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Happy Saturday Y’all! We finally made it to the weekend and I don’t know about you, I needed it! Tonight we have a massive 10-game slate of MLB DFS to work with. Like last night, we don’t have a pitcher over $10k. This slate brings us some really good arms in good spots. I’ll continue to attack teams like the Marlins and White Sox any chance I get.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
Hunter Greene is in the midst of one of the best stretches of his young career. Over his last 8 starts, Greene has given up more than 2 ER just once and the one game he did, it was more than likely due to him being sick as he threw up on the mound. He’s also given up just 2 ER over his last 5 starts. While the K’s are down a smidge this year compared to his first 2 seasons, one of the big reasons he’s done so well this year is that he’s cut down big time on his HR.
Coming into this season, he’s had a HR/9 over 1.55 in each. This season that number is down .72. Of the teams playing tonight, the Giants are in the bottom half in runs scored over the last 2 weeks. 6 of the 9 guys in the projected lineup tonight have a wOBA under .300 over the last month against righties. This is a matchup that Greene should continue his dominance in. He’s my SP1 today.
I’m going to continue to attack the White Sox any chance I get. They’ve now lost 18 in a row and after today that should increase to 19. At 27-85, there’s a real chance that the White Sox will be 60 games under .500 by the end of this series. They are also on pace to shatter the all-time loss record in a season. Over the last 2 weeks, they’ve scored just 21 runs. The next closest team is at 39 runs. It’s as bad of an offense as there is in baseball.
The good news is that we get to attack them with a pitcher who has finally put it all together and is having a breakout season. His K rate over the last month is at 29% and would rank third of all the pitchers on the mound. Trailing just Greene and Crochet. This is a ceiling-type game for him and would not be shocked to see him cross 30 DK points tonight.
I want to touch on the 2 most expensive pitchers tonight. Those are Jack Flaherty of the Dodgers and Garrett Crochet of the White Sox. I have little interest in either pitcher tonight. Crochet gets arguably the toughest matchup on the board tonight against the Twins. He hasn’t gone more than 4 innings in a game since June. I’m out on him. Flaherty is still pitching well but isn’t lighting it up like he once was and there’s always an injury concern with him and his back. I can’t see the Dodgers really pushing him hard to go that long.
The only other pitcher I have an interest in tonight will be Ronel Blanco vs. Tampa.
You can call me crazy for this one and I’d get it. I 100% understand if you have little to no interest in the Twins tonight. The only contests I play are GPP and to me, this is a 100% GPP play. If you look at the last few outings of Crochet, they haven’t been particularly spectacular like they were at the start of the season. The White Sox are dialing back his innings and he hasn’t gone more than 4 innings since his last start in June.
His last outing was not good, as he allowed 3 ER to the lowly Mariners in 3 innings pitched. With a much tougher assignment today vs. the Twins, I could see a similar outing and then the ball would get turned over to the worst pen in the league. A pen that has an ERA well over 6 over the last 2 weeks. A pen that gave up 6 ER yesterday.
Any Twins stack should start with Royce Lewis. He had another monster night at the plate, going 2-4 with 4 RBI and 2 runs scored. Against lefties this season he has a .463 wOBA and a 1.147 OPS. Even if he has to face Crochet a couple of times through the order, he can still do damage to a pitcher who isn’t quite as elite as he was earlier in the year.
After Lewis I’ll make sure to get in guys like Byron Buxton, Carlos Santana, and Willi Castro. Again, this isn’t a stack for the faint of hearts and it very well could blow up in my face. To quote the legend, Ricky Bobby, “If you aren’t first, you’re last”.
The New York Mets have been one of the best teams in baseball since June 1. They are currently winners of 7 of their last 10 and are currently sitting in the last Wild Card spot. They get a strong matchup tonight vs. a pitcher in Jose Siriano who is a low strikeout/high contact pitcher. Hitters have a contact rate over 80% vs. him over the last month.
In 3 of his last 5 games, opponents have gone on to score at least 5 ER against him and the Angels bullpen. His only 2 good starts were against a Mariners team that has been absolutely terrible vs. righties this season. Siriano is essentially a reverse split pitcher. Righties have a .473 wOBA vs. him over the last month and a .363 wOBA against him over the full season.
Core Bats: Mark Vientos, Pete Alonso, JD Martinez, Francisco Lindor
Secondary Bats: Brandon Nimmo, Jesse Winker, Jeff McNeil
Before commenting on the Red Sox, I want to know how’s starting for them. Right now I’ve seen it anywhere from TBD, to Dane Dunning, to Cody Bradford. If it’s Dunning, they are one of my top stacks on the day. Same for Bradford. Other stacks I like today will be the Dodgers vs. Mitch Pence, Braves vs. Kyle Tyler, and Orioles vs. Joey Cantillo.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
TGIF! It’s Friday and that will mean that we have a big slate to play with. Tonigh, we have an 11-game slate of MLB DFS. This is a slate that doesn’t have a pitcher over $10k. It’s a slate that has a bunch of quality arms, but not a single arm that screams a ‘must play’. I’m going to continue to attack bad teams with above average arms and we’ll be able to do with that today. With so many teams in action today, we should see ownership spread out.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
I’m not normally a fan of paying this much for a guy like Joe Ryan, a guy who is normally pretty inconsistent. That said, he is pitching really well right now and gets the greatest matchup in the history of baseball. This is an awful White Sox team. Will it work 100% of the time attacking them? No, it won’t always work. More often than not though, it will. The projected White Sox lineup tonight has a nearly 26% k rate vs. righties this season, a .133 ISO, and a .270 wOBA.
Over the last 30 days, those numbers jump to a nearly 27% K rate, a .109 ISO, and a .237 wOBA. This is a smash spot for Joe Ryan tonight. He hasn’t had less than 6 K’s in a start since June and should be able to strike out a ton of White Sox tonight. I’m locking in Joe Ryan as my SP1 tonight. Look for the White Sox to lose their 18th straight game tonight.
I’m going to continue to attack bad teams with good pitchers. Spencer Schwellenbach is coming into his own after getting called up to the bigs at the end of May. Over the last 30 days, he’s been phenomenal. He has just a 2.08 ERA over the last 30 days and a K rate of nearly 29%. Schwellanbach is coming off the best start of his career, a 7-inning 11 K gem vs. my New York Mets.
Again, it’s baseball, a highly variant spot where anything can happen. I’m going to take my chances against a team that will throw out a potential lineup that has a 30% K rate vs. righties over the last month and an ISO of just .110. Schwellanbach is going to be my SP2 tonight.
The other pitchers that I’ll have interest in tonight will be Yusei Kikuchi vs. Tampa, Tyler Phillips vs. Seattle, and maybe Gavin Stone vs. Oakland.
The Miami Marlins are expected to call up Valenta Bellozo today to make the start vs. the Atlanta Braves. Bellozo has only appeared in 2 games in the Major Leagues and has had mixed results. In his first outing against the Royals, he was superb, only allowing 2 hits in 5 innings of work. In his second out, he was horrendous, allowing 5 ER in 5 innings of work vs. the Red Sox.
I’m going to side with the outing vs. the Red Sox. His numbers this season at AAA have not been good as he has a 4.67 ERA and an xFIP over 5. His control at AAA has been terrible, with a 4.41 BB/9. While it’s always tough to gauge how an inexperienced rookie can be, I’m going to take my chances on the Braves tonight as they get this matchup plus they are hitting the ball well again.
I’m going to go home run chasing here and will start with Marcel Ozuna and Matt Olson. Over the last 2 weeks, both of these guys have homered 5 times. In terms of priority, I’m going to give the slight edge to Matt Olson. For starters, he’s significantly cheaper at $4.8k compared to Ozuna’s $5.7k salary. He’s also going to get the platoon advantage and that’s always key. Olson has now homered in back-to-back games and has homered in 4 of his last 6 games. In what could be considered a disappointing season for him compared to last year, he’s rolling right now at the right time for the Braves.
After Ozuna and Olson, I’ll look to guys like Jorge Soler, Orlando Arcia, and Austin Riley to round out my stack. If you want to snag more lefties, and cheap lefties, Jarred Kelenic and Eddie Rosario will accomplish that. Neither is a priority as both guys are mostly slumping and are more likely to strikeout than get a hit.
The Chicago White Sox will turn the ball over to Davis Martin tonight. Martin is making just the second appearance of the season in the Majors after missing more than a year thanks to TJ surgery. He’s pitched a total of 23 innings this season across multiple levels of the minors and his relief appearance the other day.
With how few innings he’s pitched, we should expect this to mostly be a bullpen game for the Sox. Over the last 2 weeks, the White Sox bullpen has an ERA of 6 and an xFIP of 5. We have the potential to see 6 innings or more of the bullpen tonight. That would be phenomenal for us.
When healthy, there are few bats that are as potent as Royce Lewis. In just 30 games this season, he’s homered 11 times. Spread out over the course of a full season, that would equate to nearly 60 homers. I’m not saying he’d be able to keep up that pace for a full year, but he has that type of strength to be able to homer that frequently. He’s just never healthy. He is now and I’m going to lock him into my Twins stack.
Next up will be Matt Wallner who is crushing the ball right now. He has 3 homers over his last 22 AB and a 1.35 OPS. He’s also just $3.5k on DK. Other bats I like here are Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Santana. Don’t be surprised to see the Twins get into double digits tonight.
Other stacks I like tonight will be Boston vs. Jose Urena, Yankees vs. Kevin Gausman, O’s vs. Carlos Carrasco, and A’s vs. Gavin Stone. There are a ton of bats in great spots tonight.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Hump Day! Hope you all enjoyed yesterday’s eventful trade deadline! A couple of things have been made very clear. The Marlins have one amazing farm system now and the White Sox may never win another game. Also, adding Jack Flaherty to their rotation, the Dodgers may have a historically good rotation heading into the playoffs. Back to today’s slate, this is a slate that has a bunch of really solid arms. It also has some amazing spots for bats.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
Don’t get me wrong here, Chris Sale is the most talented pitcher on this slate, and by a decent margin. He’s the SP1 on this slate, but I’m more than likely fading him so I can attack the 2 worst lineups in the game. Taj Bradley is going to be my main pitcher today. He’s coming into this game on the heels of 3 straight gems and gems in 4 of his last 5 games. In his 11 starts this season, he’s been below 20 DK points in just 3 of them and he’s been in single-digit DK points just once.
Anything can happen in baseball, but I’m going to take my chances on a pitcher that has a near 11 K/9 vs. a projected lineup that has just a .102 ISO and a .290 wOBA vs. righties this season. While the Marlins stocked up on prospects yesterday, this is a bad lineup that only got worse with trading both Jazz Chisholm and Josh Bell. Bradley is my SP1 today.
Last night we saw Michael Wacha put together a strong performance against a terrible White Sox team. A White Sox team that now has lost 16 games in a row and is well on pace to shatter the New York Mets record of 120 losses in a season. Against a terrible White Sox lineup, Brady Singer makes for an excellent SP2. He’s coming into this having scored at least 26 DK points in 3 of his last 4 games, with a negative outing in there against a really good Red Sox lineup.
Singer has been very strong over the last month, with a 1.88 ERA and allowing just a 22% hard-hit rate. The White Sox projected lineup today has a nearly 27% K rate vs. righties this season and a .269 wOBA. Just awful stuff. I’m locking in a pitcher that has immense upside today.
I mentioned above that Chris Sale is 100% in play. I’m just going to fade him today because I feel like there are other pitchers that have similar upside thanks to their talent and matchup combined. Other pitchers I like today will be Freddy Peralta vs. Atlanta and Grayson Rodriguez vs. Toronto. That said, I’m not straying from Bradley and Singer today. They are my 2 pitchers.
The Toronto Blue Jays will turn the ball over to Paolo Espino today to take on the Orioles. This should be music to our ears as he’s just not good and at 37 years old, isn’t going to all of a sudden get better. In the Minors this season in Buffalo, Espino has a 5.09 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP.
Over his Major League career, Espino has a 5.06 ERA and a HR/9 of 1.86. I’m going to focus on that HR number as we can certainly chase some power today for the O’s. I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits with Espino because if we look at his career numbers, both sides of the plate have an OPS over .800 vs. him.
I’m starting my Orioles stack with Anthony Santander. He’s been on fire of late and has 7 homers over the last 2 weeks. Against righties this year he has an OPS of .849 and 23 of his 31 homers have been when hitting lefty. He’s quietly one of the top home run hitters in the league this season as only Judge and Ohtani have hit more. Next up for me will be Colton Cowser.
With him now hitting in the leadoff spot, he’s been on fire. Cowser currently has a 12-game hitting streak and with this matchup this afternoon, should be able to extend it. A leadoff bomb out of him is not out of the question here. This entire lineup is in play today. Both Henderson and Rutschman are in play today as well, I’m just not going to prioritize them as their recent production + price make them both a secondary play. Espino very well could be the slump buster that both of them need though.
The Phillies get a great matchup vs. a pitcher in Nestor Cortes who is currently struggling. Over his last 6 starts, he’s given up less than 3 ER just once and has given up a combined 15 runs over his last 3. The home run ball is giving him some major heartache as he’s given up at least 1 in 5 of his last 6 games. His last start was the only one where he didn’t give up a bomb, yet he still gave up 4 ER to the Red Sox in just under 5 innings of work.
Where you want to attack Cortes is with righties. 18 of the 19 homers he’s given up this year have been to righties and they also have a .474 slugging percentage vs. him. Thankfully, the Phillies have a slew of righty bats that are crushing it right now, which is going to make for a short day for Cortes.
The Phillies have 4 guys with wOBA’s over .400 vs. lefties over the last month. Here’s the order which I’m going to rank them: Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, and Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber is the riskiest of the 4 but also will come in at the lowest ownership thanks to having the l/l matchup. He’s certainly a K risk here, but Schwarber has been amazing vs. lefties this season. He has a .345 AVG and an OPS of 1.041. At home vs. lefties, Schwarber has a 1.150 OPS vs. them. Again, he’s going to be the riskiest of the bunch, but oh boy does he have major upside here.
Turner is the safer of the plays as he has a .500 ISO vs. lefties over the last 30 days. Other bats I’ll look to use here will be Austin Hays (sounds weird not being on the O’s), Edmundo Sosa, and Johan Rojas. JT Realmuto is also in play, but we don’t have endless cash to play with.
Other stacks I like today will be the Cardinals vs. Andrew Heaney, Rays vs. Rodder Munoz, and Royals vs. Mr -17 DK points, Drew Thorpe. nnon and the White Sox pen is also very much in play. As you can see, there are a lot of great options for offense tonight.
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It only comes along once every 4 years, so of course we are back to cover the 2024 Olympics Men’s Golf with our LIVE PGA Draft Cast!
We hit 80/1 winner Johnny Vegas last week at the 3M Open!
Our resident golf analyst and man from the future, David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf), is on a HUGE hot streak.
With the Olympics Golf played at Le Golf National, David’s expertise from the DP World Tour will prove extremely valuable this week.
In the last 5 weeks alone, his picks have returned an ROI of +117%.
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