MLB

Taco Tuesday!  Happy Tuesday y’all, we have ourselves a massive 13-game slate of MLB DFS tonight.  With 26 teams in action, we some how don’t have a single pitcher priced above $10k.  However, we have a bunch of really strong arms in action tonight in plus matchups.  We also have some very targetable bats as there are some pitchers in here that like to give up some runs.  

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Zack Wheeler ($9.3k on DK) vs. Atlanta Braves

I’ve been hesitant to start Wheeler at times this year because for the most part, he’s turned into a better real-life pitcher than he has a DFS pitcher.  That said, over the last month the K’s have come back to him.  His 29% K rate over the last month ranks 4^th out of all the pitchers on the hill today.  Over his last 6 outings, he’s hit 20 DK points in all. 

He’ll get the luxury of facing a Braves team tonight that will be without one of their top bats as Austin Riley will be on the IL for the next 6-8 weeks.  This is a team that is now without Riley, Acuna, and Albies.  It’s a far weaker lineup than we’ve been accustomed to seeing and one that Wheeler should be able to overmatch tonight.  As of now, he’s my SP1.  

Cole Ragans ($9.5k on DK) vs. Los Angeles Angels

I’m more than likely going to go double aces tonight.  That second ace is going to be Cole Ragans.  I was hesitant to start Chris Sale last week vs. this Angels team as they typically don’t K too much vs. lefties.  Sale went on to throw a gem vs. them.  While I’m not saying that Ragans is quite in Sales’ class of pitchers, he’s been known to show this season that he’s close to matchup proof. 

He’s become one of the top lefties in the game and should be able to continue to pitch well in this matchup today.  This is a weak-hitting Angels team and a team that has only scored 12 runs over the last week and has struck out 36% of the time.  The Royals are massive favorites tonight.  Let’s go double-aces tonight. 

Other pitchers I have intereste in tonight will be Jose Berrios vs. Cincy, Robbie Ray vs. Chicago, Luis Gil vs. Cleveland, and Shane Baz vs. Oakland.    

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Texas Rangers vs. Mitch Keller

Mitch Keller is coming off back-to-back horrendous starts.  Over his last 2 starts, Keller has allowed a combined 15 earned runs.  While that does seem to be exaggerated, I do think he gives up a bunch more tonight.  Keller just isn’t missing any bats right now.  Hitters have a nearly 84% contact rate vs. him over the last month and he has just a 7% swinging strike rate. 

This hasn’t been all unluck for him either as hitters have just a .241 BABIP over the last month.  Things could be even worse for the Pirates righty.  Against Keller, I’m going to be targeted with my approach.  Lefties have a .405 wOBA against him over the last month and a .359 ISO.  I’m going any and all lefties here. 

Core Bats: Corey Seager, Josh Smith, Nate Lowe

Secondary Bats: Marcus Semien, Wyatt Langford, Adolis Garcia

Value: Jonah Heim, Leody Taveras

Kansas City Royals vs. Tyler Anderson

I don’t trust the version of Tyler Anderson that we’re seeing this season.  At some point, he’s going to regress back to the pitcher that we’ve all come to know and love.  This is a guy who finished 2023 with an ERA and xfip in the mid 5’s.  He has a career 4.52 xFIP. 

Anderson has started to come back down to earth a bit as he‘s allowed at least 3 ER in 3 of his last 4 starts, including 7 in his last outing.  I’m going to mostly target righties here as he gives up way more fly balls to righties than lefties and I want to chase power. 

Core Bats: Bobby Witt (I have him a notch behind Seager tonight), Hunter Renfroe, Sal Perez, Maikel Garcia

Secondary  Bats: Vinnie Pasquantino

Value Bats: Dairon Blanco, Freddy Fermin, Paul Dejong

Other bats I like tonight will be the White Sox vs. Robbie Ray, Mets vs. Dean Kremer, and Yanks vs. Matthew Boyd.  Toronto vs. Carson Spiers is also very much in play.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Happy Saturday Y’all!  We have ourselves a nice-sized 8 game slate of MLB DFS tonight.  With this slate, I’m going to be prioritizing bats.  Pitching is very wonky at first glance, with only 1 pitcher being priced over $9.1k on DK.  We have another Coors slate, followed by some other bats that will be in amazing spots. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Here’s my take on Chris Sale tonight.  As it stands right now, I’m fading.  I’m not saying that he won’t smash tonight because he has every opportunity to.  This is a slate loaded with bats in great spots and I want to make sure that I grab them.  I also don’t love the matchup here. Although the Angels are a mostly weak hitting lineup, they don’t strike out much vs. lefties.  Collectively, the projected lineup tonight for the Angels has jut a 14% K rate over the last 30 days and just 18% for the season. 

At $11k on DK, we need a near-perfect start for Sale and the matchup doesn’t dictate perfect for me.  I’m not saying he isn’t the best pitcher on this slate, because he is.  I’m just making the strategic decision to fade him.  I will not talk you out of starting him though because again, he’s by far the best pitcher on this slate. 

Hunter Brown ($9.1k on DK/$9.9k on FD) vs. Chicago White Sox

I knew going in last night with Spencer Arrighetti that he was a bit of a risk.  He was coming off 2 stellar performances and was surely going to be chalky.  He is an inconsistent pitcher that could have had a myriad of outcomes.  He wasn’t terrible, but he wasn’t great.  That matchup was there for the taking and it is again tonight for a pitcher that’s been way more consistent and a pitcher I’m more comfortable with in terms of being chalky. 

Hunter Brown is having an extremely strong season, with a  10-7 record and an ERA of 3.96.  Over the last 30 days, he’s sporting an extremely respectable K rate over 28%.  He’ll be facing off against a weak-hitting White Sox team, a White Sox team that has a 25% K rate vs. righties over the last month.  At this price point, we should hope for a low 20 DK point outing.  With what he’s done this season, he’s hit that more often than not.  As it stands right now, he’s my SP1 tonight. 

Dylan Cease ($8.6k on DK/$10.7k on FD) vs. Colorado Rockies

I need to preface this by saying this is a DK-only play tonight.  I’m not willing to pay top dollar for a pitcher that is pitching in Coors.  At $8.6k on DK though, well that’s a whole different story.  Cease surely tanked in his last outing.  I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he was a bit rusty as he had only thrown 1 inning of work over the previous 10 days.  It’s rare that we can get a pitcher of this magnitude at this price.  Is it a risk because he’s playing in Coors?  Oh, 100% it is.  Am I playing cash games?  No, I’m not. 

This is strictly reserved for GPP’s.  If you play cash, go spend up on Chris Sale.  If you’re new here and new to baseball, the ball travels far in Coors.  But it can only travel far if hitters are hitting the ball.  Cease has one of the lowest contact rates against of any pitcher on this slate.  The last time he played in Coors, he went for 33 DK points thanks to his 8 K’s in that game.  Again, this isn’t for the faint of heart as he’s pitching in Coors. This is the risk I’m taking tonight with pitching.   

Other pitchers that I do somewhat have interest in tonight will be Hayden Birdsong (could also stack against him) vs. Oakland, Osvaldo Bido vs. San Fran, and David Festa vs. Texas.  Chris Sale is also very much in play and I wouldn’t blame you for using him, I’m just making a strategic decision to fade him tonight. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

San Diego Padres vs. Kyle Freeland

I wanted to spend down on pitching tonight because I want to spend up on hitting.  While he’s been ok last couple of games, Kyle Freeland is still sporting an ERA well over 5 over the last month.  He’s a pitcher that we can always count on to give up a lot of contact.  Over the last 30 days, hitters have a more than 82% contact rate against Freeland.  To make matters even worse for the Rockies southpaw, nearly 42% of that contact has been hit hard. 

Over his 25 innings of work, Freeland has allowed a slate-high 11 barrels.  Hitters aren constantly squaring up against him and that should continue tonight with a team that is hitting the ball well right now.  After Freeland, we’ll get into a bullpen that has an ERA of 6.59 over the last 2 weeks.  With Freeland, I’m going to be overly concerned about splits. 

Priority Plays: Jurickson Profar, Donovan Solano, Manny Machado (he’s still really good vs. lefties)

A notch down: Jackson Merrill, Ha-Seong Kim, Kyle Higashioka, Xander Bogaerts

Boston Red Sox vs. Cade Povich

We’ll need to monitor the weather here tonight, but if this game plays without any rain issues I not only like the Red Sox side of this one but a complete game stack.  These 2 teams combined for a whole bunch of runs last night and the pitching today is more suspect.  The Orioles have recalled Cade Povich to make today’s start. 

The Orioles rookie has struggled at the Major League level.  Through his first 8 starts, Povich owns a less-than-impressive 6.27.  He’s been especially weak against righties this season as they have an OPS well over .900 against him.  6 of the 7 homers he’s allowed this season have been to righties and the Red Sox should be able to throw out 7 righties this in this lineup. 

Core Plays: Tyler O’Neill (should return from the IL tonight), Rob Refsnyder (also a strong value), Connor Wong

Secondary Plays: Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers

Value Plays: Danny Jensen, Rommy Gonzalez (pinch hit risk once a righty comes in), Ceddanne Rafaela

Other bats I like tonight will be the Orioles lefites vs. Brayan Bello, A’s vs. Hayden Birdsong (if Rooker is back tonight, I like them even more and could jump into my top 2), Astros vs. Chris Flexen (Yordan Alvarez is my favorite individual bat on this slate), and Braves vs. Griffin Canning.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

TGIF!  We’ve almost made it to the weekend!  It’s Friday and we have a nice-sized 8-game slate of MLB DFS on DK and a much bigger 13-gamer on FD.  At some point, I hope that DK adapts and starts to include the earlier games on the site as well.  At first glance, this slate looks to be very chalky on the pitching front, at least on DK.  We have 2 young studs facing 2 very beatable opponents.  This slate also brings the return of Coors so we’ll need to factor that into our decision making. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Spencer Arrighetti ($8.5k on DK/$9.5k on FD) vs. Chicago White Sox

I’m not sure yet how comfortable I am using Spencer Arrighetti as a chalk pitcher.  We’ve seen him get mauled by the Tigers, but we’ve also seen him throw some gems like his last outing vs. the Red Sox.  Over his last 2 starts, Arrighetti has struck out 25 hitters across 13 innings of work and allowed just 3 ER.  While it’s nearly impossible to make it a third in a row like that, the matchup is there for the taking. 

He gets to take on the lowly White Sox tonight.  A White Sox team that is pacing to shatter the New York Mets record for the worst record in the history of baseball.  The White Sox currently sit 64 games under .500 and will be lucky to win 40.  They are the only team yet to score 400 runs on the season.  They’ve scored the fewest runs in baseball by more than 80.  It’s baseball and anything can happen, but oh what a spot for the young Astros hurler. 

Spencer Schwellenbach ($9.8k on DK/$9.7k on DK) vs. Los Angeles Angels

My two favorite pitchers tonight will both be named Spencer.  I’m not sure that’s ever happened before.  Over the last week, we’ve seen pitchers like Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman throw gems against this same Los Angeles Angels team.  This is a very weak-hitting Angels team without Mike Trout in it.  If we look at the projected lineup for the Angels tonight, it’s a lineup that has a K rate greater than 25% over the last month and a woeful WOBA of just .283. 

Schwellenbach has been in play for me quite a bit recently, but this matchup solidifies his pick for me.  He’s coming into this one strong, with a 3.12 ERA over the last month and an extremely impressive 36% K rate.  He’s hit at least 7 K’s in 4 straight games and at least 6 K’s in all but 2 of his starts over the last 2 months.  He’s been superb for the Braves and he should continue to his dominant run tonight in a plus matchup. 

Other pitchers I have tepid interest in tonight will be Sean Manaea vs. Miami, Corbin Burnes vs. Boston, and Gavin Williams vs. Milwaukee.  As of writing this though, I have little interest in moving away from the Spencer and Spencer.

FD only options

 Paul Skenes vs. Seattle is in play.  Just know that Skenes has come back down to earth over his last handful of starts.  Albeit they were against teams like the Dodgers/Dbacks/Astros.  He gets a much softer matchup today vs. a Mariners team that has struck out a ton vs. righties this season, though they have been much better over the last month or so.  Gilbert vs. the Pirates is also very much in play.  Same for Gerrit Cole vs. a young Tigers lineup.  Ryne Nelson vs. a free-swinging Rays team may be my favorite play of the day on FD.  Dollar for Dollar, Ryne Nelson may have the best matchup and skillset with bringing in the early games.  He’s cheap and will allow for a ton of flexibility with bats. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Patrick Corbin (FD Only)

Oh FanDuel, thank you for making my Friday.  When I first saw the schedule for today and saw Patrick Corbin was playing at 6:40 I panicked.  I thought he wouldn’t be on the main slate.  Then I looked at FD and saw they included the early games in the Main Slate and it made my week.  Patrick Corbin continues to just be terrible.  Over his last 3 games, he’s given up an impressive 18 ER while striking out just 11. 

On the season, his ERA is up 5.98 on the year and his xERA is just behind it.  We can only hope that some team is desperate enough this upcoming offseason to give him another contract.  With Corbin, we want any and all righties.  Righties have a slugging % of .528 vs. him this season and 17 of the 19 homers he’s given up have been to righties.

That means I’m going to prioritize getting in Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos into this stack.  Both guys are hitting the ball really right now.  Bohm has been held hitless just once over the last 2 weeks and is coming off a game with a 3-run homer.  Over the last month, he has a .472 wOBA vs. southpaws and an impressive .286 ISO. 

Castle’s numbers are even better against lefties over the last month, with a .535 wOBA and a .357 ISO.  Both guys are extremely affordable as they are under $3.5k.  Weston Wilson is an amazing value at $2.4k on FD.  When he’s been in the lineup, all he has done is rake and with a lefty on the mound tonight he should be in there.  This entire Phillies lineup is in play for me tonight. 

Houston Astros vs. Garrett Crochet and the White Sox bullpen

I’m going to continue to stack teams against Garrett Crochet.  Last Friday we did and they proceeded to award us with 7 runs.  Crochet is a shell of what he was earlier in the season.  He is now at 120 innings pitched, which is close to double the total that he had coming into the season.  He hasn’t pitched more than 4 innings in more than a month as his innings/pitches are being severely limited. 

We should get at least 4 innings of the White Sox bullpen today, a bullpen that has an ERA of 6.46 over the last couple of weeks.  After Crochett, we’ll more than likely see journeyman Touki Toussaint who has mostly served as the long man after Crochet exits.  Toussaint is nothing more than a gas can at this point in his career.  He’s bounced around a handful of teams over the last few years, spending much of it in the minors.    

Core Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena, Yainer Diaz

Secondary Bats: Jose Altuve

Value Bats: Chas McCormick, Mauricio Dubon, Jake Meyers, Zach Derenzo

New York Mets vs. Roddery Munoz

Although their pitching is still horrible, the New York Mets bats have come alive over the last couple of days, and with a matchup vs. Roddery Munoz tonight, that should continue.  Munoz has a very clear weakness, and that’s lefties.  Against lefties this season, Munoz has allowed a .441 wOBA and a .371.  The metrics adding to that are a low K rate of just 18.6, a flyball rate of 39%, and a hard-hit rate that has inched over 50%. 

He’s just allowing a ton of power vs. lefties.  Of the 21 bombs he’s allowed this season, 18 have been to guys from the left side.  Lefties also have a massive OPS of 1.052.  Sign me up for all the lefties in this lineup this evening. 

Core Bats: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeill, Jesse Winker

Secondary Bats: Mark Vientos, Pete Alonso, JD Martinez

Other bats I like tonight will be the Padres vs. Cal Quantrill, Dodgers vs. Miles Mikolas and Twins vs. Andrew Heaney.  On FD, Reds vs. Michael Lorenzen are also very much in play.  

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Hump day!  It’s Wednesday and we have ourselves a pretty large slate considering the day of the week.  Thankfully, the sites adjusted and the main slate will start at 6:35 tonight.  We have an 11-game slate of MLB DFS.  We are in the tough part of the year.  Pitching recently has been even crazier than normal, with large fluctuations in performance.  We have a slate tonight that’s really void of any true ace.  That said, we do have some really solid arms in great spots. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Ronel Blanco ($9.3k on DK) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

This year’s version of the Rays has been a complete 180 from what we’ve seen over the past few years.  They currently sit a game under .500 and it will be a battle between them and the Blue Jays for last in the AL East.  Gone are Aroz and Isaac Parades.  With just 463 runs scored this season, they sit in the bottom 3 in baseball in terms of run scored.  Against righties this season, they have been terrible.  They have just a .662 OPS and a wOBA of just .293. 

For Blanco, there are definitely strikeouts to be had tonight.  5 of the 9 hitters in the projected lineup tonight have a K rate over 25% vs. righties this season.  If we look at what Blanco has done over the last 30 days, he’s been mostly strong.  Although the ERA is high at 5.68, his xFIP and SIERA both sit around 2 runs lower at 3.6.  He’s due for some positive regression and it should come against a lineup that has struggled.  He’s hit at least 5 K’s in 7 of his last 8 games.  There’s no reason to think he can’t get more than tonight.  He’s my SP1 tonight. 

Robbie Ray ($8.6k on DK) vs. Atlanta Braves

Over the last 2 nights, we’ve seen the Braves get tsruck out 11 times by Blake Snell and 6 times last night by Kyle Harrison.  I’m expecting something in the middle of that tonight.  The question with Robbie Ray is always which Robbie Ray will show up.  He’s essentially a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type of pitcher.  There are going to be games where he has no idea where the ball is going and there will be games where he looks like the Cy Young Award winning pitcher that he is. 

With a struggling Atlanta Braves lineup in the matchup, I’m going to put odds on him having a Cy Young-level performance tonight.  Even though he’s been up and down in terms of performance, he still has struck out at least 7 in 3 of the 4 outings so far this season.  He’s been under 18 DK points in just one.  This is an exploitable spot for the Giants’ southpaw tonight.  He’ll be my SP2. 

He’s not currently in my top 2 as I write this, but I also really like Jose Berrios here against the Angels.  He’s a frustrating pitcher who could easily get tagged for a bunch of runs.  But thanks to his ability to get hitters to chase, he can also get us upwards of 30 DK points.  We saw Guasman have a really strong outing vs. them last night and no reason to think Berrios can’t do the same.  Other pitchers in my pool will be Bryan Woo vs. Detroit and maybe Tyler Anderson vs. Toronto. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. David Martin

I’ve been trying to avoid writing the Yanks as the top stack, but it’s just impossible tonight.  They get a matchup vs. the Davis Martin and an atrocious bullpen.  Martin hasn’t been terrible this year in his 3 starts.  He hasn’t really been tested that much though.  He’s coming off a 6-inning solid performance against an inconsistent A’s team.  The one time he was tested this season was against the Twins and he proceeded to give up 4 ER in just 3 innings of work.  Thanks to a terrible bullpen, the final score in that matchup was 10-2 in favor of the Twins. 

I would not be shocked to see that happen again tonight.  I’m going to focus on the righties here.  So far this season, righties have a .261 ISO and a .421 wOBA.  It’s a small sample size, but if we look at his career as a whole (still a very small sample) righties have done better vs. him.

The big dilemma here will be Soto or Judge.  Tbh, you can’t go wrong with either.  I think that Judge comes in at a lower ownership tonight for a few reasons.  He’s not the one who hit 3 homers last night, he’s more expensive, and he doesn’t get the platoon advantage.  Because of that, I’m going to side with him here.  But again, you can’t go wrong with either. 

Other bats I’ll look to get into my Yankees stack will be Austin Wells, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres.  Alex Verdugo is also a nice piece here.  He’s just $3.5k on DK and almost always puts the ball in play.  It’s just going to be a matter of the BABIP gods being in his favor.  Fit any and all Yanks as you see fit.  They should score a bunch of runs.

Oakland A’s vs. David Peterson

After jumping into the Wild Card lead a few weeks ago, all has completely fallen apart for my New York Mets. They aren’t scoring runs and they are giving up a ton.  Since Friday, they’ve given up 31 runs in 4 games and have scored just 5 themselves.  They are a mess right now and I’m going to attack them with what is a very inconsistent lineup for the A’s. 

We’ve seen them on a bunch of occasions put up a ton of runs and I think they do it again here vs. a struggling pitcher in David Peterson.  Peterson is normally a headcase on the mound.  He will show flashes of greatness, but in a moment’s notice will fall completely apart.  He’ll face an A’s team that is very competent vs. southpaws. 

Core Plays: Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Miguel Andujar

Secondary Plays: JJ Bleday

Value Plays: Zack Gelof, Daz Cameron

Other Stacks I like tonight will be the Phillies vs. Edward Cabrera, Guardians vs. Jameson Taillon, Cubs vs. Alex Cobb, Dodgers vs. Frankie Montas, and Marlins vs. Tyler Phillips. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Taco Tuesday!  It’s Tuesday and we have ourselves a nice-sized 9-game slate of MLB DFS tonight.  Unlike last night, we don’t have 2 studs facing off like we did with Sale and Snell. What an absolute joy to watch that was.  The 2 southpaws combined to strike out 23 hitters with the Braves coming out on top 1-0.  It’s rare that we ever get to see games like that these days.  Tonight will be different as we have just a few above-average arms going.  On the flip side, there are a bunch of really great spots for bats. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Michael King ($9.5k on DK) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Not sure how happy I’ll be to play chalk Michael King, but this slate is really limited with quality arms.  King is the most expensive and arguably the most talented arm.  The key piece to the Juan Soto to the Yanks trade, King has been very solid in the brown and yellow of the Padres.  At 129 innings, he’s already surpassed the career high in innings.  It’s quite possible that at some point soon, his innings will be monitored, especially with Joe Musgrove back in the mix. 

Over the last month, King has been very strong.  Pitching to an ERA of 2.95 and having a K rate that’s bumping pretty close to 32%.  He gets a favorable matchup tonight vs. a Pirates lineup that has been mediocre at best over the last week.  They’ve scored just 25 runs and have a strikeout rate of 30%.  I’ll have a bottle of Tums next to me, but I’m rocking King as my SP1 this evening.  

Eduardo Rodriguez ($8.7k on DK) vs. Colorado Rockies

Eduardo Rodriguez made his return last week in what could be said were mixed results.  The matchup in his firs start could not have been tougher as he faced the Guardians.  The Guardians are a solid lineup with players who rarely K vs. lefties.  He gets a much easier task tonight vs. the Colorado Rockies.  The Rockies have been one of the worst teams in the league this season vs. lefties.  The projected lineup for them tonight has a collective 28% K rate vs. lefties over the last month and a sub .285 wOBA.  7 of the 9 hitters in this lineup have a K rate of at least 25% vs. lefties over the last month, with 4 being in the mid 30’s and above. 

He’s still at a nice discount compared to what we were paying for him last season.  Look for him to return to the glory of last year in a plus matchup.  Far from safe, but on a slate like this and his price tag I’m willing to roll the dice.

Outside of these 2, I have little interest in anyone else.  Lugo has been very good this year but he gets a tough Twins team and he’s not really blowing away people with his 13% K rate over the last month.  He’s in play, but just know he has a very low ceiling in this matchup.  A case could also be made to throw Paul Blackburn vs. his former team.  He’s going to be chalky and there’s nothing worse than Paul Blackburn chalk. 

Same could be said for Nestor Cortes vs. the White Sox.  It’s the White Sox so he’ll chalk.  The only thing worse than Blackburn chalk is Cortes chalk.  Colin Rea has been good, but he’s facing a Dodgers team that is getting healthy.  No thanks.  I may have some interest in Kyle Harrison as he takes on a struggling Braves lineup.  Kevin Gausman has strikeout upside, but he’s as inconsistent as they come. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Texas Rangers vs. Kutter Crawford

Kutter Crawford is lost right now.  He’s had 4 horrendous games and it’s not like this isn’t something we haven’t seen from him in the past.  He had a stretch similar to this a couple of months ago.  He’s now given up 22 ER over his last 4 starts and has also allowed 13 homers.  Although he gave up just one of those bombs in his last outing, he did allow 4 walks in just 3 and 2/3 innings. 

He’s been making just a ton of mistakes and until he figures out, he’s someone that we should continue to stack against.  Both sides of the plate are going to be in business as he’s been terrible vs. both.  That said, lefties have a .619 ISO vs. him over the last month.  It’s exaggerated, but again, he’s been awful for a while now. 

Core Plays: Corey Seager, Josh Smith, Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia

Secondary Plays: Marcus Semien, Josh Jung, Wyatt Langford

Value: Leody Taveras

Padres vs. Luis Ortiz

On paper, the Padres get one of the best matchups of the day vs. Luis Ortiz.  He’s a low strikeout pitcher who has been giving up a ton of power of late.  Over his last 23 innings of work, he’s given up 6 bombs and 7 barrels.  He’s allowing a greater than 52% fly ball rate over the last month, with the majority of that being allowed to lefties.  Lefties also have a 50% hard-hit rate vs. him over the last 30 days. 

To make matters even better here, the Pirates bullpen hasn’t been very good.  Over the last 2 weeks, the Pirates bullpen has an ERA over 5 and an xFIP that’s nearly identical.  The Padres have been playing some amazing ball and that should continue tonight in this plus matchup. 

Core Bats: Jackson Merrill, Jurickson Profar, Jake Cronenworth, Donovan Solano

Secondary Bats: Manny Machado, Ha-Seong Kim

Value Plays: David Peralta

Before commenting on the Dbacks tonight, I’ll want to see their lineup.  Marte has now left 2 games early over the last 3 days.  He’s banged up and I can see them sitting him again.  I do like Bell and Suarez though vs. Gomber and Kevin Newman for value.  I don’t mind the White Sox here vs. Nestor Cortes.  Cortes is average at best and he’s been terrible recently.  I’d go with guys like Vaughn, Korey Lee, and then Corey Julks for value.  Luis Robert is in play, but he’s really expensive and he’s been awful ever since Jose Ramirez clocked him last year. 

Should Paul Blackburn come in as chalk today, I’ll look to the A’s.  It’s a high risk/high reward play as the the A’s are all or nothing.  Blackburn has historically been a reverse splits pitcher so Rooker/Andujar/Shea are in play.  That said, don’t shy away from Butler and Bleday.  Zack Gelof is a nice value play who’s hitting the ball well right now, with 2 bombs over the last week. 

The Royals will be taking on a pitcher in Zebby Matthews who is making his big league debt.  Matthews has skyrocketed through the Twins system this season.  He’s got some raw, but really nasty stuff.  Royals would be in play, but it’s always risky taking on the unknown. 

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Happy Saturday Y’all!  We finally made it to the weekend and I don’t know about you, but I needed it!  Tonight we have a nice-sized 9-game slate of MLB DFS.  This is a slate that’s going to be extremely tricky in terms of pitchers.  The best pitcher in Paul Skenes faces the Los Angeles Dodgers.  It’s about as tough of a matchup as there is.  After him, it’s really just a bunch of blah pitchers.  That will mean we’ll have plenty of options for bats though.

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Corbin Burnes ($9.3k on DK) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Corbin Burnes is one of those pitchers these days who is just better in real life than he is as a DFS pitcher.  Since 2020, it’s been a downward trend for his strikeouts year after year.  This year his K/9 is at the lowest point of his career at 8.27.  That said, he’s still having one of the better years of his career as his ERA is sitting at a strong 2.63 and after he wins tonight he’ll set a career-high in wins at 13. 

I’m willing to overlook his lack of strikeouts for a few reasons.  There are just a few pitchers on this slate that have a ton of K upside tonight.  He has a relatively safe floor.  And finally, he gets a great matchup vs. a Tampa Bay Rays team that just doesn’t have a good offense these days.  Over the last week, they’ve scored just 19 runs while striking out 29% of the time.  His floor should be higher than normal and his ceiling should also be in this matchup.  He’s my SP1 tonight.  

Sean Manaea ($8.2k on DK) vs. Seattle Mariners

While the additions of Justin Turner and Aroz will certainly make this lineup better, it’s still a high-strikeout team that gives any pitcher upside.  This is especially true when a lefty is on the hill.  Over the last 30 days, the projected lineup for the Mariners has a nearly 26% K rate vs. southpaws.  Nearly half the lineup has a K rate greater than 30% vs. lefties over the last month as well.  There are a ton of strikeouts to be Manaea tonight and thankfully he’s coming into this one in peak form. 

He’s been brilliant over his last 2 starts and that should continue this evening.  He’s coming off back-to-back starts with double-digits K’s and giving up 0 runs.  If he comes even remotely close to that level of production tonight, we’ll be sitting pretty with a very cheap pitcher.  He’s going to be my SP2 this evening. 

I’m out on Paul Skenes tonight.  Yes, he’s been mostly matchup-proof this season but he’s the most expensive pitcher on this slate with arguably the worst matchup.  This matchup severely lowers his ceiling.  The last time he faced the Dodgers he ended up with “just” 21 DK points.  I’d rather get that from Corbin Burnes who’s $1k cheaper. 

Other pitchers I may have interest in tonight will be Aaron Nola vs. Zona, Logan Gilbert vs. the Mets, and maybe River Ryan if you want to get fancy.  This is a slate that’s really barren with pitchers in good spots.  I more than likely won’t be straying from Burnes/Manaea. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Chicago Cubs vs. Chris Flexen

I hope y’all were able to play the Cubs at single-digit ownership last night.  It went better than I could have expected as they tagged Garrett Crochet nicely.  Their ownership should be much higher tonight as the matchup is a smidge more obvious with them taking on Chris Flexen. Flexen is terrible.  Not sure there’s any other way to say it.  Over the last month, Flexen has an ERA that’s pushing 8 and an xFIP that’s over 6. 

He continues to be helpful in terms of stacking.  In his last 7 starts, teams have put up over 6 runs in each of them against him and the White Sox bullpen.  I’m going to prioritize the lefties in this matchup as they have a .556 slugging % vs. him this season.  Righties will still be in play though for me.

I’m starting this stack off with Cody Bellinger.  He doesn’t always come through for us, but he did last night.  He finished the night going 3 for 4 and his first homer in a couple of weeks.  I would not be surprised to see a repeat performance again tonight with a matchup vs. a low strike out pitcher. 

After Bellinger, I’m going to Pete Crow–Armstrong and Michael Busch.  They are 2 of the hotter hitters on this team right now.  PCA is in the midst of a 7-game hitting streak and should have that continue tonight.  He’s also a strong value at just $2.7k on DK.  This entire lineup is in play and plugging in pieces all over will be a good strategy with the wind expected to be blowing out tonight. 

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Nick Martinez

This is more of a play on how well the Brewers are playing right now than it is on Nick Martinez.  Martinez has actually been pitching pretty well of late, with just a .56 ERA over the last month.  His xFIP is nearly 3 runs higher so we can expect some regression from him.  He’s mostly been a reliever this year as he’s only started 6 games but has appeared in 32.  With him mostly working out of the pen this season, we can’t expect him to go more than 4-5 innings and that will mean we’ll get a healthy amount of the bullpen tonight. 

This is a below-average bullpen that has a nearly 5 ERA over the last couple of weeks.  This should certainly help in our cause of using the Brewer tonight.  And this is a Brewers team that is rolling right now.  Over the last week, they’ve scored 49 runs.  That is by far the most out of all the teams in action tonight. 

The first bat I want here will be Jackson Chourio.  He’s been hot at the plate, with 12 hits in his last 28 AB.  While the majority of his hits have been singles, he’s also homered twice and has scored 7 runs.  He should be able to fill up the stat sheet for us this evening. 

I’m also a huge Willy Adames fan tonight.  He’s normally one that is better vs. righties than lefties.  He has an OPS of .850 this season vs. righties, compared to just .612 vs. lefties.  19 of his 21 homers this season have been against righties.  Other bats I’ll look to get in here will be William Contreras, Rhys Hoskins, Garrett Mitchel, and Brice Turang. 

Other stacks I like tonight will be Atlanta vs. Dakota Hudson, Twins vs. Gavin Williams, White Sox vs. Justin Steele, and Guardians vs. SWR. 

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TGIF!  It’s Friday and that will mean a yuge slate.  Tonight we have a 12-game slate of MLB DFS.  We’ll want to monitor the weather on a few games.  The game between the Yanks and Rangers has already been PPD and then the game between Rockies and Atlanta has some weather so we’ll want to make sure to keep an eye on the status.  This slate features some solid, but uninspiring pitchers.  It also features a few pitchers who have had a case of the struggles of late that I will be more than happy to attack.   

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jack Flaherty ($10.5k on DK) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

My biggest concern with paying a premium for a guy like Jack Flaherty is that we pretty much have a set ceiling.  He has only made it into the 7th inning a handful of times this season and each time he was pulled mid-inning for a reliever.  More often than not, he’s gone 6 strong innings and nothing longer.  With it being the home stretch of the season, I don’t see the Dodgers really pushing him when they don’t quite need to. 

With all that said, he’s been the model of consistency all season.  He continues to go 6 strong innings with 6-8 K’s with limited damage.  There’s little about this Pirates lineup that should scare Flaherty tonight.  They’ve struck out 32% of the time over the last week and have scored just 25 runs.  I’m more than willing to pay the premium on Flaherty this evening. 
 

Robbie Ray ($8.6k on DK) vs. Detroit Tigers

I need to preface this pick by saying I only play GPP’s.  If you’re playing cash games, I wouldn’t go this route.  While Ray is one of the more inconsistent pitchers, he’s also someone that will always have a high ceiling due to his ability to rack up strikeouts.  After missing just about all of 2023, Ray has now pitched in 3 games thus far. 

He hasn’t made it past 5 in any of them, but in 2 out of the 3 outings, he’s already had at least 8 K’s.  With his cost tonight, I’m going to overlook his lack of length because again, he can rack up K’s with the best of them.  I’m going to lock in Robbie ‘I like to wear really tight pants’ Ray tonight as my SP2. 

Other pitchers that I like tonight will be Jameson Taillon vs. the White Sox and Jose Berrios vs. Oakland. Wheeler is also in play, but against a red-hot Dbacks team, I’m out.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Kansas City Royals vs. Miles Mikolas

Miles Mikolas has been one of my favorite pitchers to attack.  Nothing against him, but I just enjoy stacking against pitchers who not only give up a ton of contact but also pitchers who give up a lot of homers.  Over his last 21 innings of work, Mikolas has given up a nearly 84% contact rate and just a 22% chase rate.  He isn’t fooling anyone with the garbage that he’s throwing. 

To make matters even better for us, he’s given up 5 bombs in those 21 innings.  I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits in this matchup.  Both sides of the plate have pretty equal numbers vs. him.  Lefties have an OPS of .790 vs. him while righties have an OPS of .787. 

The 3 core plays here will be Bobby Witt, Sal Perez, and Vinnie Pasquantino.  Few hitters in the game today have the upside that Bobby Witt has, especially when they’re playing on their home diamond.  Witt has insane splits this season when comparing his home-to-road performance.  At home, he’s hitting .409, while on the road it sits at “just” .288.  The same could be said for most of this lineup, bringing into question whether or not some nefarious stuff is happening. 

That’s a convo for another day though.  While Witt is the star and face of this franchise, we can’t discredit what Pasquantino is doing.  With finally getting regular playing time, he’s already set a career-high in homers and is well on his way to having his first 100 RBI season.  Other guys I like here are Michael Massey, MJ Melendez, and Hunter Renfroe. 

Chicago Cubs vs. Garrett Crochet and the White Sox Bullpen

We’re essentially at the point of the season where Crochet is mostly worthless.  At 118 innings pitched, he’s more than doubled his career total.  Coming into this season, Crochet had thrown a combined 70 innings in relief at the major league level and he’s already at 118 on the season.  He hasn’t gone longer than 4 innings in more than a month and with the team more than 60 games under .500, there’s no need to push him at all. 

That will mean we’ll get more than half this game against the White Sox bullpen.  Over the last 2 weeks, the White Sox bullpen has an ERA that’s pushing 7 and for the full 2024 season, it’s over 5.  This is more a strategic play and it’s not for the faint of heart. 

I’ll build this stack around 4 guys that are putting the ball in play the most.  That’s going to be Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Pete Crow–Armstrong, and Michael Busch.  There’s a strong chance that Busch doesn’t play with a lefty on the mound, so we’ll want to monitor his status.  At most, these guys should only face Crochet once and then it will be a field day vs. White Sox bullpen. 

Other stacks I like tonight will be both sides of the Coors game, with the Braves being a priority, Cardinals vs. Michael Lorenzen, Giants vs. whoever the Tigers throw out, and Red Sox lefties vs. Ronel Blanco. I also really like the Blue Jays vs. Spence, especially a smoking hot Vlad Jr.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!