Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Tonight we have a small 4-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. Options are limited on both the mound and in the batter’s box. I’d recommend playing light on this slate.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
We saw what Kyle Wright was able to do vs. this Rockies lineup last night, 7 innings with no runs allowed and 6 K’s. With Strider having the better season and coming into this one hot, there’s no reason to think that Strider can’t do the same or even better. Over his last 12 starts, he’s given up more than 1 ER just twice. Since May 1, he’s given up more than 1 ER just 6 times. Over the last month, he has had an ERA of 2.73, a strikeout rate of 35.5%, and a WHIP of 1.06. He’s an elite pitcher, in an elite matchup, and is priced under $9k on DK tonight. I suspect his ownership will be through the roof tonight, but it’s chalk that we’ll need to eat in GPP’s
I’m not normally a fan of attacking this Orioles lineup with my MLB DFS pitchers, especially with the addition of Gunnar Henderson, but our options are extremely limited tonight with it being just a 4-game slate. That said, Bieber has been solid over the last month, with a 1.62 ERA and a 27% K rate. He’s also sporting a WHIP under 1. Bieber has also gone 6 consecutive starts without giving up more than 2 ER. He’s been able to shut down most offenses and there’s no reason to think that he can’t shut down this Orioles offense. My starting pitching pairing will more than likely be Strider/Bieber tonight on DK.
While the ERA has been pretty low for Woodruff over the last month at 2.76, there are a ton of red flags. Over the last month, Woodruff has been giving up a ton of flyballs and a ton of hard contact. His 39% hard-hit rate over the past month is tops of any pitcher on the mound tonight and by a pretty decent margin. His flyball rate of 44% ranks second to only Chad Kuhl. He’s also going to be facing a team in the Diamondbacks that has just a 16% k rate vs. righties over the last month. This game has floor written all over it. That said, he’s still the same pitcher that just mowed down 10 Cubs a week ago. He’s my SP3 tonight and if you plan on using him tonight, make sure to have a bottle of Tums sitting next to you.
Hate to keep going back to the well with the Braves, but they continue to get solid matchups. In MLB DFS, if you get stuck on a team, you need to continue to play them in plus matchups even if they haven’t been taking advantage of them. At some point, they’ll blow up and you’ll be happy you continued with the play. Chad Kuhl has been a disaster on the road this season. Away from Coors, he’s sporting a 6.02 ERA which is almost 2 runs higher than his homer ERA of 4.17.
He’s coming off a stretch that has seen him give up at least 3 ER in 7 consecutive starts, 4 of which have been on the road. With Kuhl, we really don’t need to be overly concerned with splits. He’s giving up a slugging % over .475 to both sides of the plate and both sides also have wOBAs over .350.
Core: I’m going to start my Braves stack with the 2 guys that have been hitting the ball the best and have also been the most consistent. That’s going to be Austin Riley and Michael Harris. Riley hit his 32nd homer last night and continues to be the focal point of this offense. Over his last 18 AB, Riley has 7 hits and is sporting a 1.167 OPS. With Harris, we have someone that is also hot. In his last 19 AB, he has 9 hits and a team-leading 1.208 OPS over the last week. He’s been great vs. righties over the last month as well with a .402 wOBA and a .250 ISO. Both of these guys are in a great spot and will be locks in my lineup.
Secondary Pieces: After those 2, I’ll look to include Dansby Swanson, Ronald Acuna, and Matt Olson where I can. The three of them are all extremely expensive tonight, with all of them priced over $5.3k on DK. Of the 3, Swanson is probably my favorite as he’s been the most consistent. Last night was the first time he failed to get a hit in over a week but was still able to get on base twice thanks to a pair of walks.
Value: For value with this lineup, we can look to Vaughn Grissom, Robbie Grossman, and Eddie Rosario. None of these guys will be a priority for me but getting guys at $3k and below in a lineup expected to score close to 6 runs always makes for solid value.
There’s a blow-up game coming for Glenn Otto and it’s going to be at the hands of the Boston Red Sox today. Over the last month, Otto has pitched to a 2.93 ERA. The xFIP and other metrics say there’s going to be some regression coming his way. His xFIP of 5.49 over the last month is more than 2.5 runs higher than his ERA. His 14% k rate is the lowest of any pitcher on tonight’s slate, as is his 8% swinging strike rate.
The Red Sox lineup is starting to hit the ball a bit better as they scored the seventh most runs over the last week. Otto has been a bit of reverse splits pitcher this season, with righties having a slugging % 80 points higher than lefties and a wOBA 50 points higher. We’ll have plenty of righties in this lineup to prioritize.
Core: I’m going to prioritize getting Tommy Pham and Xander Bogaerts into my Red Sox stack. Both guys are red-hot at the plate right now. Pham has hit safely in 7 straight games and has 11 hits in his last 31 AB. While he hasn’t hit for much in the way of power over the last week, he’s been a big part of this offense with his 7 runs scored over the last week. There may be no hotter hitter in the game right now than Bogaerts. He has multi-hit games in 6 of his last 7 games, including his grand slam last night. Considering his recent form, $5k for him on DK seems very reasonable.
Secondary/Value: Even though Otto has been better against lefties, I still want to grab some bats that will have the platoon advantage. Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers, and Frenchy Cordero all fit that bill. Verdugo has been solid over the last week, with 9 hits in his last 27 AB. With him sandwiched between Pham and Bogaerts, we’ll get that 1-3 stack, and these three have been performing very well together. Frenchy Cordero has been extremely solid vs. righties over the last month, with a .563 ISO and a .433 wOBA. At just $2k tonight, he’s a solid value piece and one of the top value bats on the board.
A complete game stack here is very much in play. While Hill hasn’t pitched awful over the last month, he does have a couple of games giving up 4 ER and this is the type of matchup where he can get tagged for a lot of hits and a lot of runs. The Rangers this season have been much better against lefties. As a team, they have a 119 wRC and that’s one of the highest marks of any team in the league. The projected lineup tonight for the Rangers has a .364 wOBA and a .191 ISO vs. lefties over the last month.
Core: My priority with the Rangers tonight will be Nate Lowe, Corey Seager, and Adolis Garcia. All three have been the Rangers’ best hitters vs. southpaws over the last month. Yes, 2 of them will be in a L/L matchup but you have to respect what both Seager and Lowe have done vs. lefties. Over the last month, Lowe has a .528 wOBA vs. lefties and a .237 ISO. He excels in this type of matchup and will more than likely come in lower-owned thanks to people often being scared of L/L matchups. Seager also has been strong vs. lefties, with a .337 wOBA in August and a .207 ISO.
Secondary: After my core, I’ll look to add in Marcus Semien, Jonah Heim, and Leody Taveras. None of these guys are hitting the cover off the ball right now, but are in positions to excel tonight. Heim is my favorite of the 3 as he’s been really good vs. lefties this season. He has a .525 slugging % vs. them and a .879 OPS. While he’s 0 for 13 over the last week, he has a 90% contact rate and almost all of his contact has been either medium or hard hit. He’ll break out tonight.
Value: Should Mark Mathias make the lineup tonight, he’ll be one of the top value plays on the board. He’s crushed lefties this season with a 1.000 slugging % in 14 plate appearances. He also has a .462 average vs. them with 2 bombs.
If you are fading Brandon Woodruff in MLB DFS tonight, using the Diamondbacks is an option. They got to Aaron Nola the other night and with how much hard contact Woodruff is giving up, they can certainly get to him too.
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Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Tonight we have a nice size 12-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. Tonight’s pitching is void of any true ace, but there are still some solid options on the hill. With the lack of aces, we do have some great targets for our bats.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
Blake Snell faced this same Giants team about 3 weeks ago and absolutely dominated them. He finished the game with 8 k’s and allowed just 1 ER in a little over 5 innings of work. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him replicate that today against a Giants team that just continues to strike out a ton. Over the last week, the Giants have struck out more than 28% of the time and have scored just 14 runs. While they are a bit better vs. lefties, Snell is talented enough that he should mow them down again.
The lineup that the Giants will throw out today will also play into Snell’s strengths. He has a 37.6% K rate vs. righties over the last month and he’ll more than likely face 7-8 righties tonight. I’m going to be locking Snell and his 34.5% K rate over last month in as my SP1 tonight.
George Kirby has been pitching some phenomenal baseball over the last month. In 5 starts, he’s given up more than 2 ER just once and has a 30% K rate over that stretch. He’ll get a great matchup tonight vs. the Detroit Tigers. Over the last month, the projected Tigers lineup tonight has done absolutely nothing vs. righties. They have a 27% k rate, a .096 ISO, and a .283 wOBA.
With how well Kirby has been pitching, he should be able to breeze through a lineup that has mostly AAA hitters in it outside of Riley Greene. He’s extremely cheap tonight on DK at just $8.5k. With how well he’s pitching and the matchup, he should be priced much higher.
I don’t normally like to attack this Rockies lineup with a lefty as they’ve been one of the better teams vs. lefties this season, but this game is in Atlanta and the Rockies offense is nowhere near as potent on the road as they are at home. We’re in the stretch of baseball now where teams are going to start jockeying for playoff positions or will be in heated races. The Braves are 3 games back of the Mets and will need huge performances out of their pitchers. They’ll get that tonight out of Fried who is coming into this game pitching very well.
Over the last month of baseball, he’s pitched to ERA under 2 and has really limited hard contact as he’s allowed just a 23% hard-hit rate. The only concern with him at his price point is that he doesn’t have huge K upside. His K rate over the last month is just 22%. He’ll have a good game, but his ceiling is somewhat capped.
Other pitchers I like tonight will be Brady Singer vs. a disappointing White Sox team, Erick Fedde vs. Oakland, and Kevin Gausman vs. the Cubs.
While Jose Urena has been way worse at home with a 7.36 ERA in Coors, he’s still sporting a 4.21 ERA on the road. He’ll have the tough task of facing a deep Braves lineup today. Urena is coming into this matchup today after having one of his worst outings of the year. Against the Dodgers a week ago, Urena gave up 9 ER in just over an inning of work. I doubt we see a replication of that tonight, but we should see the Braves put up a big number.
Urena is a pitcher that pitches to contact. Over the last month, Urena has allowed an 87% contact rate which is by far the highest number of any pitcher on tonight’s slate. He’s also sporting a WHIP of 1.75 over the last month. That much contact and that many runners on against one of the best lineups in the game are going to make for a fun evening of MLB DFS. With Urena, we’ll want to prioritize hitters from the left side. They have a .400 wOBA vs. him and a .480 slugging %
Core: I wish they hit closer together in the lineup to get some correlation, but I’m going to build my Braves core around Michael Harris and Matt Olson. Olson may be one of my favorite bats on the board tonight as he should crush in this matchup. Urena will throw mostly sinkers to both sides of the plate tonight. Against righty sinkers, Olson has a .256 ISO and an average exit velocity of 95 mph. He’s set up to have a monster night. While it’s much smaller sample size for Harris, he’s also had some success vs. this pitch. He has a 66% hard-hit rate vs. righty sinkers and an average distance of 424 feet. Both of these guys very well could take Urena deep tonight.
Secondary Pieces: After locking in Harris and Olson tonight, I’ll look to add in the usual suspects of Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson, Ronald Acuna, and Eddie Rosario. I didn’t mention Rosario in my core because he’s been extremely up and down this season, but he’s also in a great spot. He has a long track record of doing well vs. sinkers and will also have the split advantage. He’s also extremely cheap at $2.9k and will make paying up for the big bats in this lineup a smidge easier. This entire lineup is in play tonight as on paper, they have the best matchup on paper.
The Brewers are the type of lineup that when they are rolling, you want to jump along for the ride. They are rolling right now as they’ve scored at least 7 runs in three straight. With a matchup against Mitch Keller and the Pirates bullpen, there’s an excellent chance that they can make it 4 straight tonight.
Keller comes into this matchup, not in great form. While he was a bit unlucky in his last outing as he gave up 7 runs, 5 of which were unearned, he still gave up a ton of contact in that game and multiple barrels. Over the last month, he’s given up an 84% contact rate and a 5.29 ERA. With Keller, I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits. Both sides of the plate have a slugging % around .420 and wOBA’s over .330.
Core: I’m going to build my core for the Brewers around Hunter Renfroe, Willy Adames, and Christian Yelich. Yelich was arguably the disappointment of the night last night as he only went 1 for 5. He still hit 3 bullets last night, he was just a bit unlucky. I’m going to go right back to the well with him as he’s seeing the ball and hitting it as hard as he has all year. Both Adames and Renfroe have been really solid against righties over the last month. They both have ISO’s pushing .290 and wOBA’s around .330. Renfroe now has 5 hits in his last 8 AB. He’s hot and a streaky hitter. Ride the wave with me.
Secondary Pieces: Other pieces I’ll look to use here will be Kolten Wong, Jace Peterson, and Keston Hiura. Hiura has been lethal against righties over the last month, with a .429 ISO and a .427 wOBA. At just $2.7k on DK, he opens up a ton of salary relief and makes paying up for someone like Adames a little bit easier. Both Wong and Peterson will have the platoon advantage and I love using Peterson against average righties.
Value: Garrett Mitchell is min-priced on DK tonight and may be the top MLB DFS value play of the night. Since debuting on Sunday, he’s had 4 RBI and stole his first base last night. If he cracks the lineup, he’ll be a lock in my Brewers stack.
The Twins get a great matchup tonight vs. Kutter Crawford. Crawford has thrown 3 duds in his last 4 outings and very well could make it 4 out of 5 when the night is done tonight. Crawford has been giving up a ton of hard contact over the last month. His 45% hard-hit rate is significantly higher than any other pitcher on the mound tonight. With the amount of hard contact he’s been giving up, a lineup like the Twins should be able to put up a healthy amount of runs tonight. Vegas currently has their IRT at 4.73 and I think they get all of it. With Crawford, we’ll want to make sure to get the lefties in this lineup in our MLB DFS stacks. He’s giving up a .584 slugging % and a .397 wOBA to lefties this season.
Core/Value: I’ll start building my Twins stack tonight with guys like Luis Arraez, Max Kepler, and Nick Gordon. Gordon is one of my favorite bats in his lineup. He’s min-priced tonight at $2k on DK and will get the platoon advantage here. Over the last month, he’s been decent against righties with a .196 ISO and a .338 wOBA. All 5 of his homers this season have come against righties and I would not be surprised to see him get one tonight. Baseball Savant has him in the top 25 in expected slugging % in all of baseball. He has some sneaky power. While Kepler and Arraez haven’t exactly been great over the last month, this is the type of breakout matchup they’ve been looking for.
Secondary: After my core, I’ll look to add in guys like Carlos Correa, Jose Miranda, and Gio Urshela. Urshela has been their best hitter over the past week, with 7 hits in his last 23 AB and a 5 wRC. He has back-to-back games in double-digit fantasy points and is only $2.8k on DK. He’s a solid value. Miranda is coming off a solid night that saw him reach base 4 times, with 2 hits and 2 walks. He’ll look to build on that tonight vs. a pitcher that’s struggling.
Other stacks I like tonight are going to be the Angels vs. Jameson Taillon, Yankees vs. Mike Mayers, Nationals vs. Cole Irvin, and the Dodgers vs. Taijuan Walker.
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Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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Welcome to the Friday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Tonight we have a massive 14-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. We have a couple of solid pitchers we can turn to and some smash spots for offense.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
While every game that Gerrit Cole pitches in feels like a trap play, he should do well tonight. He’ll be facing a weak lineup that, although he didn’t strike out many, Jameson Taillon was able to essentially dominate last night. This Athletics team doesn’t strike out a whole lot, but they also don’t do much in the way of hitting for power. The projected lineup tonight for the A’s have just a .154 ISO vs. righties over the past month. We may not see a 10 K performance from Cole tonight, but we should see him roll through this lineup with ease. He’s expensive at $10.7k on DK tonight, but he has arguably one of the best matchups on the board tonight.
I highlighted this the other day with Andrew Heaney that the Milwaukee Brewers have been pretty bad this season against lefties. Against lefties this season, the Brewers have struck out more than 26% of the time. If we dial that back to more recent data, the projected lineup tonight has a 28.2% strike-out rate vs. lefties over the last month. It also helps that Justin Steele is coming into this one pitching some outstanding baseball. Over his 26 innings of work, Steele has a 36% k rate and just a .68 ERA. While that ERA seems exaggerated, his xFIP of 1.85 shows it’s not a fluke. Justin Steele is coming into his own as a pitcher and he’ll make for a nice value with pitching tonight as he’s only $7.6k on DK.
Bailey Falter gets the privilege of taking on the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. The Pirates lineup has been pretty cold of late, with just 15 runs scored over the last week and a 26% K rate. With Falter being a southpaw, we’ll be able to neutralize guys like Oneil Cruz. Falter is coming into this pitching pretty well. Over the last month, Falter has a nearly 24% k rate and just a 2.25 ERA. The xFIP of 4.49 does indicate he may have some challenges ahead, but I just don’t see them happening tonight against a lineup that will be trotting out guys like Ben Gamel, Greg Allen, and Rodolfo Castro. Apologies if any of their parents are reading this, I mean no disrespect.
If you were planning on stacking the Phillies last night, you were probably disappointed at the lineup they threw out last night. Guys like J.T. Realmuto and Alec Bohm got a breather and it made for a watered-down lineup. Tonight’s Phillies lineup should resemble more of an All-Star team as they’ll get their start slugger back in Bryce Harper. And having him back tonight will play heavily into the weakness of Pirates’ starter Bryse Wilson. When you attack Wilson, you do it with lefties. In 2022, lefties have a .612 slugging % vs. him and a .424 wOBA. He struggles mightily vs. lefties and there will be a handful of lefties in the Phillies lineup tonight that can do some serious damage.
Core: With there being some cheap pitchers we can use tonight, there will be plenty of money to go around to fit some expensive bats. My core with the Phillies tonight will be Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. While I still never trust Schwarber, he did homer last night and anytime he does that, there’s always a chance that he can go on an epic run. With a matchup against a pitcher that can’t get lefties out to save his life, there’s a strong chance he can homer on back-to-back nights. Harper returns tonight after a 2-month stay on the IL. He had a brief rehab assignment, but you wouldn’t know it because he absolutely destroyed AAA pitching. I have little concern that he’ll be rusty tonight.
Secondary Pieces: After my core, I’ll look to add in J.T. Realmuto, Bryson Stott, and Alec Bohm. Stott is playing some amazing baseball right now and won’t break the bank at $4k. He’s hit safely in 7 straight games and has extra-base hits in 3 straight. With him being a lefty, this is a solid matchup for him tonight against Wilson. Realmuto, while not having the platoon advantage tonight, is also swinging a hot bat. He’s been hitting the cover off the ball and until he cools off, I don’t care much about who the pitcher is.
The underperforming White Sox draw a sweet matchup tonight vs. the southpaw Tommy Henry. Over the last few years, the White Sox have been a lock vs. lefties when playing MLB DFS. While that hasn’t always worked out this season like it has in years past, it should be tonight vs. an average pitcher in Henry. Henry hasn’t pitched awful through his 4 starts this season, but he does have some pretty dramatic home/road splits. At home, he’s pitched to a 1.46 ERA. On the road has been a completely different story as he’s pitched to a 6.10 ERA. With this game being in Chicago tonight, I’m hopeful the trend will continue of him struggling on the road.
Core: My White Sox core will be the 2 guys that will most likely hit right at the top of the lineup, A.J. Pollock and Luis Robert. Pollock will provide us some decent value at just $3.4k while also providing us with some solid production. Over the last month, he’s been excellent vs. lefties. He has a .364 ISO and a .371 wOBA vs. them. His price-plus spot in the lineup makes him one of my favorite bats on the day. Robert, while a little more expensive, is also in a great spot tonight. He has a massive .421 wOBA vs. lefties over the last month and should be able to do some damage tonight.
Secondary: After my core, I’m going to add Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn, and Eloy Jimenez. Jose Abreu has a long career now of abusing southpaws. He hasn’t shown much power vs. them over the last 30 days, but he does have a high wOBA vs. them of .398. Andrew Vaughn is coming into this one as one of the most consistent White Sox bats. He’s sporting a modest 4-game hitting streak and has hits in 6 of his last 7. He had a solid game last night, with 2 extra-base hits and he’ll look to build on that tonight vs. Henry.
Value: There will be some decent value at the back of this White Sox lineup tonight. Elvis Andrus, Josh Harrison, and Romy Gonzalez are all $2.5k and below tonight on DK and will have the platoon advantage. Andrus has been really good against lefties over the last month, with a .250 ISO and a .468 wOBA. He’s my favorite value play on the White Sox tonight.
Although they won last night, the Mets were somewhat of a disappointment in terms of MLB DFS as they only scored 3 runs. I’m going to go right back to the well tonight because they face a struggling pitching in Chad Kuhl. Kuhl has now gone 6 straight starts giving up at least 3 ER. In his last start vs. the Padres, he gave up 9 ER before being pulled.
Kuhl is a borderline Major League pitcher and one that anytime he’s on the mound, we should consider stacking against. Kuhl has been pretty bad vs. both sides of the plate this season as righties and lefties have a slugging % over .460 vs. him and wOBA’s over .340. The Mets should be able to put up a big number tonight vs. Kuhl
Core: My core with the Mets tonight will be Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil. Alonso provided the majority of the Mets’ offense last night with his 2-run homer. He’s been mostly quiet over the last week or so, but much of it has been due to bad luck thanks to a low BABIP. Could his homer last night be the start of things to come as we get into the home stretch of the season? I sure hope so and I’ll be counting on it tonight.
McNeil has put together a solid season after disappointing last year. Over the last month, he has had a .428 wOBA vs. righties and a .210 ISO. He’s reasonably priced at $4.3K on DK and will be a lock in my Mets stack.
Secondary Pieces: Other Mets bats I really like tonight will be Francisco Lindor, Starling Marte, and Daniel Vogelbach. All three are extremely solid vs. righties and will make for nice additions to a Mets stack. Over the last month, Lindor has a .448 wOBA vs. righties. He’s pricey at $5.6k, but he’s a stat-sheet stuffer and can always put up a monster number thanks to his combo of power and speed.
Other stacks I like tonight are going to be the Houston Astros vs. Kyle Bradish, Tigers vs. Glenn Otto, Rangers vs. Tyler Alexander, and Nationals vs. Mike Minor.
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Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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