MLB

Happy Saturday y’all!  For a Saturday, we have a pretty large slate tonight as we’ll have 10 games of MLB DFS.  This is a slate that at first glance, really lacks quality pitching outside of Zack Wheeler and he’s in a terrible matchup.  It does mean that we’ll have some great spots for hitting.   

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Bryan Woo ($8.8k on DK/$10.8k on FD) vs. Los Angeles Angels

I want to preface this by saying this is a DK only pick.  I’m not willing to spend upwards of $11k on Bryan Woo anywhere.  That said, the price point on DK is great.  The oft-injured Woo has been pitching really well this season especially of late.  Over the last month, Woo has pitched to an ERA of just 1.59.  Although that low of a number is not sustainable, his xFIP in the low 3’s over the last month indicates he’s still really good. 

Woo has been doing a great job of limiting hard contact when hitters do make contact.  Hitters have just a 17.6% hard-hit rate vs. him over the last month.  This is a matchup that he should excel in.  Although the Angels got to Gilbert last night, Woo is the more consistent pitcher and the pitcher in better form.  I’m rocking Bryan Woo as one of my 2 pitchers on DK tonight. 

Edward Cabrera ($6.7k on DK/$7.4k on FD) vs. San Francisco

The San Francisco Giants lineup is anemic right now.  They are downright struggling and because of that, I’m going to target them with a pitcher that has some strikeout upside tonight and virtually no cost.  Tonight’s projected Giants lineup has a greater than 27% K rate vs. righties over the last month and a sub .300 wOBA.  Over the last week, the Giants have scored just 17 runs have a strikeout rate of 29%.  Those 17 runs rank second worst out of all the teams on this main slate. 

We’ve seen Cabrera get up to 7K’s on more than a handful of occasions this season.  He’s coming of an 8 K game in Colorado earlier this week and with this matchup, I can see him getting upwards of 8 K’s again in this matchup.  This is far from safe and I wouldn’t blame you if you choose to fade, but in GPP’s this is a ceiling type of matchup for a young pitcher that has a ton of talent. 

Other pitchers that I like tonight will be Jose Berrios vs. Minnesota, Yusei Kikuchi vs. KC, and Jose Quintana vs. Chicago.  I’m not a huge fan of this matchup for Zack Wheeler.  Somehow, the Braves continue to put up runs despite losing some huge bats.  I’m not willing to pay a premium for someone who will have a much lower ceiling than normal. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Fernando Cruz/David Buchanan

I’ve seen different reports showing either Fernando Cruz or David Buchanan starting for the Reds tonight.  More are showing Cruz pitching and if that does happen, that should be music to our ears.  While Cruz does have a ton of K upside from his time in the pen, he also has absolutely no idea where the ball is going when he throws it and it leads to a lot of walks. 

He has a career 4.36 BB/9 in his time in the big leagues.  Since he’s mostly been a reliever, we can’t expect him to go that long and then we’ll face a Reds bullpen that has a 6.42 ERA over the last couple of weeks.  This is a great spot for the Brewers to continue with their hot-hitting. 

Core Plays: Willy Adamas, William Contreras, Jackson Chourio

Value Plays: Garrett Mitchell, Blake Perkins, Rhys Hoskins

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Merrill Kelly

I’m not sure what happened to Merrill Kelly, but he’s broken.  Over the last month, he’s just been downright terrible.  He’s sporting a 6.75 ERA and is allowing a massive 40% hard-hit rate.  Hitters are just teeing off on him.  He isn’t fooling anyone with his pitches as he has just a 6.7 swinging strike rate.  With how poorly he’s been pitching, this is a great spot for the Dodgers to continue putting up runs. 

This is also a matchup that will play right into their wheelhouse.  Since returning from the IL, lefties have been crushing him.  They have a .278 ISO and a .364 wOBA.  He’s also allowing a 42% flyball rate and a nearly 65% hard-hit rate.  The Dodgers are built for this matchup and we should expect a short outing from the Dbacks righties. 

Core Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy

Secondary Bats: Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez, Will Smith

Value Bats: Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas, Tommy Edman

Other bats I like tonight will be the Mets vs. Davis Martin, A’s vs. Cody Bradford, Orioles vs. Ryan Feltner, Rockies vs. Dean Kremer, and Mariners vs. Tyler Anderson 

Top Individual Bats I like

Brent Rooker Vs. Cody Bradford

Corey Seager vs. Joey Estes

Francisco Lindor vs. Davis Martin

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

TGIF!  It’s Friday and that means a large slate. Tonight, we’ll have a 10-game slate of MLB DFS.  This slate brings us a couple of top arms that are in less than ideal spots. With pitching tonight, I’m going to be more focused on matchup than I name.  We have a couple of above-average arms that I like due to the spots they are on.  We also have a top offense heading to Coors after playing in a less-than-ideal hitting environment.

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

The top 2 name pitchers on this slate are Blake Snell and Framber Valdez.  Let’s start with Valdez.  I’m out on him. The matchup for him could not be any worse.  He’s facing a Royals team that is one of the top teams in the league against southpaws.  I have no interest in him tonight at all.  Next up is Blake Snell. 

Since the All-Star Break, Snell has been mostly fire.  He came back down to earth in his last outing, an outing that saw him going only 3 innings due to having absolutely no command of his pitchers.  While the Marlins are mostly terrible, they aren’t a high-strikeout team and actually have some patience at the plate. They are middle of the pack in terms of K rate against lefties this season.  With this matchup, the ceiling is lowered a bit.  I’m more than likely out on the most expensive pitcher tonight having a lower ceiling. 

George Kirby ($9.8k on DK/$9.4k on FD) vs. Los Angeles Angels

George Kirby has suffered from a bit of bad luck over the last month.  Hitters have a BABIP of nearly .380 vs. him over the last 30 days.  That’s one of the highest marks of any pitcher on this slate.  With a matchup against a terrible Angels team, I’m looking for some positive regression from Kirby tonight.  This is an Angels team that has been really struggling offensively lately.  Over the last week, the Angels have scored just 14 runs while striking out 35% of the time. 

The projected lineup for the Angels tonight has a 30% K rate vs. righties over the last month.  7 of the 9 hitters in this lineup have a K rate greater than 26% vs. righties over the last month.  If ever there was a matchup that would help for a rebound game, this is it.  I wish the price were a bit lower for Kirby tonight, but I do like him to score a whole bunch of points for us.  Last time he faced the Angels he threw a 22 DK-point game and with the way the Angels are right now, I like him for even more this evening. 

JP Sears ($7.9k on DK/FD) vs. Texas Rangers

If the Rangers/White Sox series showed anything, it showed that the Rangers really aren’t that good.  They managed to score just 9 runs against an absolutely atrocious White Sox pitching staff.  They were stymied by the likes of Nick Nastrini, Chris Flexen, and a host of other pitchers who wouldn’t be in the Majors if not for playing for the White Sox.  Last year’s World Series Champs now sit 8 games under .500 and 9.5 games out of the Wild Card. 

They have virtually zero shot at making the playoffs this season.  To say they were a disappointment would be an understatement.  Against lefties, this lineup has really struggled over the last month.  They own a .096 ISO and a .254 wOBA.  I’m willing to chase here with Sears.  He’s cheap and has some upside tonight in this matchup. 

The other pitchers that I like tonight will be Pablo Lopez vs. Toronto and Kevin Gausman vs. Minnesota.  As I said above, I’m personally out on Blake Snell tonight.  I’ve been fading the top salaried pitcher on slates of late and it hasn’t come back to haunt me.  Snell is arguably the most talented pitcher on this slate and I would not fault you for going there.  I’m just personally out on him. 

Another arm that’s viable if you want to chase is Tylor Megill against the White Sox.  He’s cheap and shouldn’t give up too much damage today. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Mets vs. Jonathan Cannon

The next contestant that gets to take on the lowly White Sox is my New York Mets.  The Mets are clinging to their playoff lives.  Thanks to a comeback win by the Phillies last night, the Mets sit 3 games out from the last Wild Card spot.  A 3-game set with the White Sox could not have come at a better time.  The Mets will get to take on Jonathan Cannon and the White Sox bullpen today.  Cannon is a low-strikeout pitcher who has a 4.57 ERA in his rookie year. 

Over his last 9 starts, teams have scored at least 4 runs against a combo of him and the bullpen 7 times, making it nearly a lock that the Mets score at least 4 runs.  They will surely score way more than that.  I’m going to make a slight preference to lefties here as lefties have an .849 slugging % vs. him this season.  9 of the 13 homers he’s given have been to lefties. 

You know what that means.  I’m starting this stack off with Francisco Lindor.  Lindor just continues to put up solid numbers year after year.  He needs just 2 homers and 5 steals to hit another 30/30 season.  With a month left in the season, that seems very attainable.  Over the last week, Lindor has 3 bombs and 6 RBI.  He’ll look to add to that total tonight. 

I’m also very interested in Jesse Winker and Brandon Nimmo tonight.  Nimmo’s price has come down big time to just $4.2k.  This is a matchup he should excel in.  While I’ll prefer the lefties here, I also very much like Mark Vientos and Pete Alonso.  Both guys have home run upside every time they step up to the plate.  15 of Vientos’ 20 homers this season have come against righties and he has a very respectable .819 OPS  vs. them.  This entire lineup will be in play tonight.   

Cleveland Guardians vs. Bailey Falter

The Guardians get one of the best matchups on the board today as they take on Bailey Falter.  Falter has somewhat of a respectable ERA this year at 4.25.  His xERA is nearly a full run higher though at 5.11.  Falter is limping to the end of the season.  He’s allowed games of 4 ER and 5 ER in 2 of his last 3 outings. 

Falter is a low strike-out pitcher who gives up a ton of flyballs.  Over the last month, he’s allowed a nearly 40% flyball rate.  Against a powerful lineup like the Guardians, that’s a recipe for disaster.  This is a Guardians team that has a lot of pop vs. lefties.  The projected lineup tonight for the Guardians has a .350 wOBA and a .205 ISO vs. lefties this season. 

This lineup has 3 regulars in it that have an OPS of at least .900 vs. lefties this year.  The one guy I really want to lock in tonight is going to be Jhonkensy Noel.  Noel has been a beast vs. lefties this season.  7 of his 12 homers this season have been against lefties and he’s sporting a massive 1.187 OPS vs. southpaws.  He’s a huge power threat tonight and I would not be shocked to see him take Falter deep. 

Next, I also want David Fry.  Fry has an OPS of .972 vs. lefties this season and is extremely affordable at $3.8k on DK and $3k on FD tonight.  Over the last month, he has a .360 ISO vs. lefties.  I’m not going to force him in, but Jose Ramirez is always in play.  Other guys I like here tonight will be Lane Thomas, Josh Naylor, and Andres Gimenez.  I’m not going to shy away from lefties as we’ll see a decent amount of the bullpen tonight and this Pirates bullpen is not good. 

Other stacks I like tonight will be the A’s vs. Jon Gray, Cardinals vs. Marcus Stroman, and Orioles vs. Austin Gomber. 

Top Individual Bats I like

Lawrence Butler and JJ Bleday vs. Jon Gray

Juan Soto, Austin Wells, and Jazz Chisholm vs Erick Fedde

Oneil Cruz, Rowdy Tellez vs. Ben Lively

Austin Slater, Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson vs. Austin Gomber

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Hump Day!  With it being Wednesday, we’ll have a bit of a small slate.  Thanks to the debauchery that happened with the Rangers/White Sox games last night, we’ll be down to just a 7-game slate of MLB DFS on FanDuel and an 8 gamer on DK.  At first glance, this is an odd pitching slate.  We have a couple of high-priced guys and then a whole lot of nothing.  It’s going to be a survival of the fittest type of night on the mound.

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

As will probably be the case going forward, I’m fading the most expensive arm on the slate.  Chris Sale is by far the best real life pitcher on this slate.  That said, his price is also by far the highest on the slate.  Can he post a monster outing here?  Sure, he certainly can.  I’m not willing to pay $11k for someone just as likely to throw a game hovering around 20 DK as he is 30 DK points.  We need 30 DK points out of him for him to reach value and I just don’t see it tonight. 

I’m also going to be out on Freddy Peralta.  He’s been very “mid” of late and I’m not paying $10k for someone who isn’t striking out people nor going long into games. 

Joe Musgrove ($8.8k on DK/$8.1k on FD) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

While I normally reserve Joe Musgrove for his games against the Mets, I’m more than likely going to rock him tonight on both sites.  Although the Cardinals aren’t the highest strike-out team, I think Musgrove can strike out enough to both not kill us and also take us up in the leaderboards.  My biggest concern tonight with Musgrove is his pitch count. 

Since returning from the IL, he hasn’t thrown more than 75 pitches in a game.  That said, he did put up 9K’s in his last outing with only having to throw 75.  That’s also baked into his price as he’s still under $9k.  This is nothing more than an average Cardinals lineup that Musgrove gets to face tonight.  I like for him at least 20 DK points tonight. 

Luis Severino ($7.3k on DK/$8.5k on FD) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

I’m way more interested in Luis Severino on DK than I am on FD.  His price is very enticing, even with the matchup.  The New York Mets are playing for their playoff lives at this point and need all the wins they can get.  I’m hopeful that Sevy can throw a third straight strong start.  Overall, his first year in New York has been a successful one.  After a disastrous 2023 campaign with the cross-town rival New York Yankees, Severino has pitched to a 3.84 ERA with a nearly identical xERA. 

While the K’s have been mostly down for him this year over years past, his groundballs have been up.  Against lefties over the last month, he has a nearly 54% groundball rate.  He should face a lineup tonight that has 7 lefties in it.  There’s certainly some power risk here, but with his recent propensity to get the ball on the ground, that should limit the damage.  This is far from a safe play, but with pitching the way it is tonight I’m willing to roll the dice on him in this matchup.  Especially with the Dbacks missing some of their top bats. 

The other pitchers I have an interest in tonight will be Andre Pallante vs. San Diego, David Festa vs. Atlanta, and Jack Leiter vs. Chicago (FD only).  I want to point out specifically today, I’m not 100% married to these pitchers.  Especially Sevy.  Make sure to hop into discord throughout the day to as I’ll be posting my final thoughts on pitching later today.  It’s very possible on DK that I end up going Musgrove/Leiter.  Leiter struggled in his first cup of coffee this season.  Since getting sent back down to the Minors, he’s had increased velocity and command.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Colorado Rockies vs. Max Meyer

As chalky as they’ll be, I’m going right back to the Rockies tonight.  They get a great matchup vs. a struggling Max Meyer.  Over the last month, Meyer has been terrible.  He’s allowed an ERA over 7 and has also allowed 8 homers and 13 barrels in the 25 innings he’s thrown over the last month.  Since being recalled back to the majors in July, he hasn’t had a start allowing less than 3 ER. 

In his 46 innings of work this season, he’s already managed to allow 11 homers.  He’s someone that we can rely to give up power.  With this stack, I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits.  Both sides of the plate have an OPS over .860, with lefties having a slight edge at .910. 

I’ll start this stack with the guys hitting at the top of the lineup.  That will be Charlie Blackmon, Ezequiel Tovar, and Ryan McMahon.  I said in yesterday’s article that Blackmon was due to for a big game and he rewarded us with 21 DK points.  In this matchup, he has similar upside.   

After the 3 guys at the top, I’ll look to guys like Brendan Rodgers, Michael Toglia, and Jeff Cave.  Plugging in a guy like Sam Hilliard so you can get a 9-3 or 9-4 stack is also very much in play.  This entire lineup should be in play tonight and they should score a whole bunch of runs. 

Boston Red Sox vs. Chris Bassitt

This is looking like a worst-case scenario type of matchup for  Chris Bassitt tonight.  Over the last month, lefties have really battered him.  They own a .250 ISO and a .426 wOBA vs. him over the last 30 days and also have a nearly 53% hard-hit rate and 50% flyball rate.  12 of the 16 bombs he’s given up this season have been to lefties. 

With Triston Casas back healthy, he should face a Red Sox lineup tonight that has 6 lefties in it.  Most of these lefties also own some power so tonight’s game very well could equate to a home run derby. 

Core Bats: Jarren Duran, Triston, Wilyer Abreu, Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida (I have this listed in my order of preference)

Secondary Bats: Tyler O’Neill, Connor Wong, David Hamilton

Value Bats: Ceddanne Rafaela

Other bats I like tonight will be the Mets vs. Eduardo Rodriguez, Blue Jays lefties vs. Brayan Bello, Rangers vs. Chris Flexen ,and Marlins vs. Kyle Freeland  

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Taco Tuesday! It’s Tuesday and that means we’ll have a decent slate to play with.  Tonight we have ourselves a nice-sized 9-game slate of MLB DFS.  This slate brings us mostly underwhelming arms and a whole bunch of average-at best pitching.  This should mean there will be plenty of options for us to choose for our stacks.  At first glance, this slate should be wide open. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Spencer Schwellenbach ($9k on DK/$9.7k on FD)

I like the price a bit more on DK than I do FD, but Spencer Schwellenbach is in play on both sites tonight.  I may be done paying up more than $10k on pitchers for the rest of the way out.  At this point of the year, pitchers are getting fatigued and the results are showing.  Schwellenbach is right in the price range of what I’m looking to spend these days.  And boy has he been performing up to the task.  Over the last month, Schwellebach has an insanely high 37% K rate and just a 2.84 ERA.  His ERA Is not fluky as his SIERA and xFIP are both more than .5 run lower.  

When he hasn’t been striking hitters out, he’s been doing a splendid job of keeping the ball on the ground as hitters have a nearly 50% ground ball rate against him over the last month.  With his ability to keep the ball on the ground when it’s in play, he should be able to neutralize the power of the Twins.  There are definitely going to be K’s to be had against this Twins lineup as 5 of the hitters in the projected lineup have a K rate over 25% over the last month.  As of now, he’s my SP1.   

Andrew Heaney ($7k on DK/$8k on FD)

At this price point and in this matchup, Andrew Heaney is almost a free square tonight.  The White Sox just continue to lose and they continue to not score runs.  Over the last week, they’ve scored just 16 runs.  Against lefties over the last month, the projected lineup for the White Sox tonight has just a .042 ISO and a .205 wOBA.  The days of the White Sox being a powerhouse against lefties are long gone.  This should set up great for Heaney tonight. 

While he’s nothing splashy, he has pitched ok over the last month.  He’s coming off one of his best starts of the season, a start that saw him go 5 innings against the Pirates and strike out 8.  He’s normally capped around 90 pitches, but at $7k we won’t need much for him to hit value tonight.  If he can get up to 20 DK points again tonight, I’d consider that victory.  With how pitching has been recently, that would be a monster victory. 

I’m out on $10k Jack Flaherty tonight.  Even though the Orioles offense hasn’t been spectacular of late, they are still a solid lineup and I’m not going to target them with the most expensive pitcher on the slate.  He has cracked 25 DK points in just 2 of his last 8 outings.  If he does it tonight, I’m ok with fading him because the risk tonight just doesn’t seem worth it.  If you want to chase upside, Dylan Cease is your guy.  That said, he’s seen a massive downward trend in performance since no-hitting the Nationals.  Other pitchers I do like tonight will be Sean Manaea vs. Arizona, Logan Gilbert vs. Tampa, Logan Webb vs. Milwaukee, and Brando Pfaadt vs. the Mets. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Colorado Rockies vs. Roddery Munoz and a terrible Marlins bullpen

Y’all know me by now.  You know that I try to avoid going to Coors as much as possible.  It’s a chalky environment and I try to be different in a way to get to the top of the leaderboard.  It’s going to be tough to fade the Rockies though tonight.  Roddery Munoz just isn’t a major league-ready pitcher.  With a nearly 6 ERA for the full season, little has gone Munoz’s way this season. 

His K/9 is low at 7.75 and his BB/9 is extremely high at nearly 5.  When hitters do make contact against him, it’s normally pretty hard as hitters have a nearly 50% hard-hit rate vs. him over the last month.  In his last 20 innings of work, he’s allowed 5 homers and 7 barrels.  While both sides of the plate will be in play today, lefties are going to be my priority.  Lefties have an OPS of 1.069 against him this year thanks to a slugging % that is approaching .700. 

I’m going to build around guys like Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon, and Michael Toglia tonight.  Blackmon is due for a big day at the plate. Over the last week, he’s been BABIP’s significantly.  He has just 2 hits while putting the ball into play in 16 of his 18 AB.  His BABIP is insanely low at .125.  Look for him to get off the shnide here. 

Another bat I like here is Jake Cave.  He’s in play on both sites tonight, but his price on FD is laughable at just $2.5k.  He’s a super-strong value play there.  I’ll round out this stack with guys like Ezequiel Tovar, Brenton Doyle, Brendan Rodgers and Nolan Jones.  This entire lineup is in play as after Munoz, they’ll get a bullpen that has a 5.79 ERA over the last 2 weeks. 

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cooper Criswell. 

The Boston Red Sox are fading, and they’re fading fast.  A big reason for their fall of late is due to terrible pitching.  Over their last 4 games (I’m not including their suspended game), they’ve given up 30 runs.  They’ve given up at least 7 in 3 of the 4 games.  With Cooper Criswell on the hill tonight, the faucet of runs allowed shouldn’t stop anytime soon.  While Criswell is known to throw a solid game or 2 here and there, he’s also someone that can implode just as quickly. 

Just 2 starts ago he got rocked by the Orioles for 6 ER in just 3 innings of work.  He’s a low strikeout guy that gives up a ton of contact.  Over the last month, hitters have a nearly 89% contact rate vs. him.  Criswell also rarely goes long in his outings.  He’s made it through 6 innings in just 2 starts this season.  That will bring us to a struggling bullpen.  The Red Sox bullpen has an ERA of 5.84 over the last 2 weeks.  Of the teams on the main slate tonight, only the White Sox bullpen has been worse.  Don’t panic if they only score a couple of runs early.  This is play as much on the bullpen as it is Criswell. 

Core Bats: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Spencer Horwitz

Secondary Bats: Daulton Varsho

Value Bats: Joey Loperfido, Addison Barger, Ernie Clement, Will Wagner

Other bats I like tonight will be the Red Sox vs. Yariel Rodriguez, Marlins vs. Cal Quantrill, Padres vs. Miles Mikolas, and Braves vs. SWR.  I also want to keep an eye on the Rangers tonight.  The weather does not look good for the game tonight.  If we get more clarity before first pitch, I absolutely love the Rangers vs. Crochett and a bad White Sox bullpen.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Happy Saturday y’all!  It’s Saturday and that means nonsense with the different slates.  I’ll be focused on the 7-game main slate of MLB DFS starting at 7 pm est.  This is a slate that is very top-heavy in terms of pitching.  We’ll have the likes of Tarik Skubal and Michael King up top.  And then not much else. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Tarik Skubal ($10.9k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

Over the last couple of years, Tarik Skubal has turned himself into one of the top pitchers in the game.  Through 25 starts this season, he’s having one of the finest years of his young career.  He’s sporting a career-best ERA of 2.49 and has maintained a K/9 around 11. He’s coming into this one in solid form, with a 31% K rate over the last month and an ERA hovering around 3. 

He gets a great matchup today vs. a bad White Sox team.  A White Sox team that has mostly struggled against lefties this season.  I’m not going to overthink this one, Skubal is my SP1 this evening. 
  

Clayton Kershaw ($7.8k on DK) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

I really wanted to get up to Michael King as my second starter tonight, but paying up for double aces just may not be in the cards or wallet.  Kershaw is a nice alternative as he takes on a below-average Tampa Bay Rays lineup.  A Rays lineup that has struggled recently, with just 20 runs scored over the last week and a K rate of 28%. 

While the days of Kershaw being the best pitcher in the game are over, he will supply us with a nice floor tonight.  At Kershaw’s price point tonight, I’ll be ecstatic with a high-teens performance and that’s something well in play.

The only other pitcher I am interested in tonight is Michael Kings vs. the Mets.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Atlanta Braves vs. Jake Irvin

The Braves somehow continue to win games.  They were helped last night by a terrible play by CJ Abrams.  They should be able to continue their winning ways this evening against Jake Irvin.  Irvin is coming into this one not in peak form.  Over the last month, Irvin has an ERA of nearly 5.5.  He’s allowed a massive 83% contact rate over the last month and a slate leading 8 homers. 

While I wish this lineup was a little deeper for the matchup, the matchup is one where they should still put up a bunch of runs.  I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits here as Irvin has really struggled against both sides of the plate over the last month, especially the righties.

Core Plays: Marcel Ozuna, Jorge Soler, Matt Olson, Michael Harris

Value Plays: Ramon Laureano, Whit Merrifield, Adam Duvall

Cleveland Guardians vs. Jon Gray

I’m going to be chasing some lefty power here.  While Gray hasn’t pitched too poorly this season, he is someone that we should be able to attack tonight.  Gray is someone that typically gives up a lot of contact.  On the year, hitters have a nearly 80% contact rate vs. him.  He’s also a very low K guy as his K/9 are just 7.5.  We’ll have to be hoping for some BABIP luck here, but I think it comes. 

We’ll want to focus on lefties here as Gray’s K rate drops from 21.5% vs. righties to just 17.8% for lefties.  Lefties also have a much higher flyball rate and hard-hit rate vs. him.  This has enabled them to have a .355 wOBA vs. him, compared to just .247 for righties.  Thankfully, the Guardians have a whole bunch of lefties in their lineup!

Core Bats: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan

Secondary Bats: Lane Thomas

Value Bats: Bo Naylor, Andres Gimenez, Brayan Rocchio, Daniel Schneemann

Other bats I like tonight will be the Nationals vs. Charlie Morton, Dodgers vs. Taj Bradley, Tigers vs. Ky Bush. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

TGIF!  Happy Friday y’all.  We have ourselves a massive 14-game slate of MLB DFS tonight.  It’s the largest slate I can remember this season.  With this many teams in action, it will mean plenty of options on the mound and to stack.  We’ll also need to make a decision on what to do with Chris Sale tonight.  He’s by far the best pitcher and also by far the most expensive pitcher.  At over $11k tonight, he’s going to take up a bunch of our salary.   

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

As it stands right now, I’m going to fade Chris Sale.  Play him if you want to, he’s the best pitcher on the slate.  For me though, his price is very restrictive and I want to make sure to grab top bats in certain matchups. 

Carlos Rodon ($9.7k on DK) vs. Colorado Rockies

We saw yesterday what a lefty could do to this Colorado Rockies lineup away from Coors.  Patrick Corbin, yes that Patrick Corbin, went 6 strong innings and struck out 8 Rockies while allowed just 1 run on 4 hits.  I’m not saying it’s a certainty that Rodon can replicate that, but if Corbin can throw a masterpiece against them anyone can.   We’ve seen a lot of volatility in Rodon’s performance this season.  Last outing he gave up 4 ER in 3 innings of work against the Tigers. 

A few starts before that, he struck out 10 Rays.  With this type of matchup, I’m going to lean more toward a performance like his one vs. the Rays than the one against the Tigers.  He has a ton of strikeout upside tonight.  You’ll just need to close your eyes and hope for the best though with Rodon.    

Luis Castillo ($9.8k on DK) vs. San Francisco Giants

This Giants team is really struggling right now.  Over the last week, they’ve scored just 15 runs while striking out 32% of the time.  Against righties this season, they’ve also struggled.  They have a sub .700 OPS and a wOBA right at .300.  This should set up very well for a pitcher like Castillo.  While he’s coming off a subpar last game, we’ve seen Castillo at times throw gems this season. 

2 starts ago he manhandled my Mets, going 6 innings and striking out 9.  With this matchup, I could see him replicating his Mets outing.  He’s done it numerous times this season so it’s not out of the realm of possibility. 

Other pitchers I have an interest in tonight will be Chris Bassitt vs. a high strikeout Angels team, Hayden Birdsong vs. Seattle, and of course Chris Sale vs. Washington.   Keider Montero vs. Chicago would be a great value pitcher today 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Kyle Freeland

The reason I’m mostly sacrificing paying up for Chris Sale tonight is that I want to grab the Yankees bats.  While it’s still going to be difficult to go to 2 pitchers priced over $9k, we’ll have to look to our second stack for value.  The stars have really aligned for us here.  They get to take on a struggling Kyle Freeland and Rockies bullpen today.  The Yankees have been one of the best teams in baseball vs. lefties this season, with a .720 OPS and a .160 ISO. 

With Freeland, he’s coming into this one with a 6.66 ERA over the last month.  Over his last 5 outings, he’s given up less than 3 just once and has given up 5 or more twice.  Then we move to the bullpen, a bullpen that has an ERA over 6 over the last 2 weeks.  Everything is setting up for the Yankees to have a monster night.

Core Plays: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto

Secondary Plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Volpe, Jazz Chisholm

Value Plays: Gleyber Torres, Jose Trevino, DJ

Detroit Tigers vs. Chris Flexen

I doubt they will be sneaky tonight, but I do think the Tigers can put up a bunch of runs tonight.  They face off against Chris Flexen who is a gas can at this point of his career.  Over the last month, Chris Flexen has an ERA over 6 and both his SIERA and xFIP are just as high.  He’s given up at least 4 ER in 2 of his last 3 outings.  I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits against Flexen.  Both sides of the plate have been crushing him of late. 

That said, lefties are where the power comes from against him.  Lefites have hit 12 of the 19 homers he’s given up and have an OPS that is pushing .900.  The Tigers so happen to be lefty dominant. 

Core Bats: Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter

Secondary Bats: Matt Vierling, Spencer Torkelson

Value Bats: Parker Meadows, Colt Kieth, Zach McKinstry

Other bats I like tonight will be the Cubs vs. Max Meyer, Braves vs. Mckenzie Gore, Marlins vs. Kyle Hendricks, and Blue Jays vs Jack Kochanowicz

Update (2:48 pm est): As I’ve dug into the slate more while my kids enjoy themselves on the beach, I’m really liking the Royals more and more. Taijuan Walker is way past his expiration date. I’d focus on the entire lineup where you can fit them. Righties/Lefties, they all excel vs. Walker.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Hump day!  Happy Wednesday y’all.  We have a solid-looking 8-game slate of MLB DFS tonight.  There are 2 playable slates today but I’ll be focused on the main slate starting at 7 pm est.  This is a slate that has a stud pitcher in a pristine matchup.  It also has some very average to below-average pitchers.  This will mean that offense should be fairly spread out. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jack Flaherty ($10.5k on DK) vs. Seattle Mariners

I’m going to have a hard time fading Flaherty tonight.  He’s by far the top pitcher on this slate and he’s facing a team in the Mariners that is back to strikeout ways.  Over the last 2 weeks, the Mariners have struck out 32% of the time.  That’s far more than any other team on this slate. 

At 28, it appears that Flaherty is finally putting it all together for the first time since back in 2019.  His K/9 is the highest it’s ever been and his BB/9 is significantly lower than they have ever been.  He’s my SP1 tonight and I’m going to overthink it.   

Ryan Pepiot ($8.3k on DK) vs. Oakland

I’m going to get a little risky with my SP2 tonight.  Ryan Pepiot is nothing special, but he hasn’t pitched all that bad.  On the season, Pepiot is sporting a very respectable 3.69 ERA and an xFIP that is nearly identical.  While I wish the K’s were a bit higher, the matchup today does provide him a bit more upside than normal.  The A’s are striking out more than 25% of the time against righties this season. 

Even though this lineup has some pop these days, it’s a lineup that can be had thanks to their high strike-out tendencies.  I can see Pepiot getting into the 20 DK point range tonight, and at this price point, I’ll take it.   

Other pitchers I have interest in tonight will be Yariel Rodriguez vs. Cincy and Aaron Nola vs. a depleted Braves lineup.   

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Joey Cantillo

The Major League experience has not been kind so far to Joey Cantillo.  Through his first 3 starts, Cantillo has a far from impressive 6.23 ERA and an xFIP over 5.  It’s been a struggle for him so far to get hitters out.  So far he’s had 2 glaring weaknesses.  Getting the ball over the plate and keeping the ball in the ballpark when it does go over the plate. 

His BB/9 is a terribly high 4.15 and his HR/9 is also high at 2.77.  It’s a small sample size, but so far it’s been lefties that have tortured him so far.  They have a 1.563 OPS and a .641 wOBA. 

Core Plays: Juan Soto, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays: Stanton, Verdugo

Value Plays: Oswaldo Peraza, Jose Trevino, DJ LeMahieu

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kyle Gibson

Kyle Gibson has been going through a rough stretch at his one talent, pitching.  Since the end of June, he has 5 starts out of 9 where he’s given up at least 4 ER.  Against a powerful Brewers lineup, he very well could add to that total this evening.  Over the last 2 weeks, the Brewers have been putting up some runs. 

Of the teams playing tonight, only the Braves and Royals have scored more than them.  I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits tonight as Gibson has been struggling against both sides of the plate over the last 30 days. 

Core Bats: William Contreras, Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, Willy Adames

Value Bats: Joey Ortiz, Tyler Black, Garrett Mitchell

Other bats I like tonight will be the Rays vs. Mitch Spence, Angels vs. Michael Lorenzen, and Blue Jays vs. Nick Martinez. Guardians vs. Nestor Cortes are also very much in play.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!