Hump Day! While there are 2 big slates today, I’ll be focused on the 8-game main slate of MLB DFS starting at 7:05 pm tonight. This is a slate that brings us some solid pitching. We have a couple of the best young lefty hurlers in the game and we also have some solid pitching in great spots. On the opposite end of the spectrum, we also have some real gas cans throwing today and that will give us different spots for stacking.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
I’m not sure what Hunter Brown needs to do to get his price raised, but until it goes up I’m going to continue to throw him out here. Especially when he gets a matchup vs. one of the worst lineups in the game. Brown is coming off one of the best starts of his season, a 7-inning game that saw him strike out 9 Tigers and not allow a run to score. That is now 4 consecutive starts where he’s had at least 7 K’s. As I already said, he gets the luxury of facing a terrible lineup tonight.
The White Sox have been abysmal this season and that shouldn’t change tonight. They have a nearly 24% K rate vs. righties this season and limited power with a .128 ISO and .622 OPS. Look for Brown to dominate this lineup tonight and continue his trend of high strikeout games and make it another start with over 20 DK points.
Tampa Bay continues to be a team that strikes out at a high pace. Over the last week, the Tampa Bay Rays have struck out 28% of the time and have only scored 25 runs. They are a team that I have been habitually using righties against and with a pitcher like Joe Ryan on the mound, I’m not going to stop tonight. Ryan has been strung together a pretty nice set of starts. Over his last 5 starts, he’s managed to go 7 strong innings and has only allowed more than 2 ER just once.
While he’s not in the upper echelon of strikeout pitchers, his length and matchup have me thinking that we will see a ceiling type of game tonight vs. the Rays. He’s been over 23 DK points in 5 of his last 7 starts and I think he does it again tonight.
Other pitchers that I really like today will be Garrett Crochett vs. Houston, Cole Ragans vs. Oakland, and Sean Manea vs. Texas. I love Crochett but I do think he has a lower ceiling than normal tonight as Houston doesn’t strike out much.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
I normally don’t like recommending the Dodgers as they are normally an expensive team and popular. With them playing in Coors, they’re even more expensive and even more popular. That said, they are chalk that we may need to just eat tonight as they continue to be in a great spot for a smash-type night. Ryan Feltner just isn’t very good.
Over the last month Feltner has a 5.74 ERA and giving up just a ton of hard contact at more than 42%. He’s also someone that is giving up a ton of homers as he’s given up 6 over his last 26 innings of work. With Feltner, we really want to focus on getting lefties into our stack. Lefties have a .404 ISO and a .478 wOBA vs. him over the last 30 days. Just crazy stuff.
Core Bats (In preferential order): Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman
Secondary Bats: Will Smith, Teoscar Hernandez, Andy Pages
Value Bats (pinch hit risk): Jason Heyward, Gavin Lux, Cavan Biggio
Although his ERA is just 2.32 over the last month, Tyler Anderson’s SIERA and xFIP indicate he’s not pitching nearly as well as that. His SIERA and xFIP are both 3 runs higher over the last month than his ERA. He has some major regression coming his way and I think it comes at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers. If we look at some of his advanced metrics, we can see why there will be some regression.
Over the last month, Anderson has a WHIP of 1.42 which is higher than the average pitcher on this slate. He also has a LOB % of 91%. He’s been getting extremely lucky to keep leaving that many runners on base. Against a solid Brewers lineup, his luck is about to run out.
Core Bats: Christian Yelich, William Contreras, Willy Adames
Secondary Bats: Rhys Hoskins
Value Bats: Joey Ortiz, Gary Sanchez, Jackson Chourio
Other stacks I like tonight will be the Mets vs. Andrew Heaney, Twins vs. Taj Bradley, and Royals vs. Luis Medina.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
It’s the final Signature Event of the season! Joel finally ended the Spencer win streak at the US Open, with Rory McIlroy leading the charge on his team if not the golf course. Who will win this week?
Join Spence (@TeeOffSports), Joel (@draftmastersflex), and David (@deepdivegolf) as they deep-dive into their preview of the Travelers Championship!
Happy Tuesday! Tonight we have ourselves a nice-sized 10-game slate of MLB DFS. At first glance, this is a slate that lacks a true ace. There isn’t a single pitcher on this slate that will blow us away with strikeouts. We have just three pitchers tonight over $9k and none of them are must-starts. Because of this, we’ll be able to afford most of the bats we want.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
Nothing against Alec Marsh, but this is how bad pitching is tonight that a pitcher who is only $7.6k will be my SP1. This really shouldn’t take anything away from Marsh though as he’s pitched pretty well over the last month to a month and a half. If we go back to May 1, he’s had just one start under 15 DK points. Also over that stretch, he’s had just 2 games under 7 K’s.
Tonight he’ll have one of the easiest matchups of his season as he takes on the lowly Oakland A’s. The A’s lineup has been terrible recently as they have scored just 23 runs over the last week while striking out 29% of the time. I would not be surprised to see Marsh as the highest-scoring pitcher on this slate.
Nothing about starting Framber Valdez makes me feel comfortable. He’s the epitome of inconsistent. We’ve seen him have starts that end with him having upwards of 37 DK points. We’ve also seen him have multiple starts with negative DK points. He is the ultimate GPP pitcher. This is a matchup though that he should be able to fully take advantage of. The White Sox are just bad, no other way to say it.
They’ve been especially bad against lefties this season as they have just a .289 wOBA and just a .654 OPS. The White Sox have scored just 22 runs over the week as their offense continues to be anemic. While I don’t expect Valdez to strike out a ton of hitters tonight, I do expect him to pitch well enough to get us close to 25 DK points. The way the White Sox shape their lineup will play well to Valdez’s strength. He’s way better vs. righties and the White Sox will have potentially 9 righties in their lineup tonight.
Other pitchers that I like today will be Pablo Lopez vs. Tampa, Tanner Houck vs. Toronto, and Logan Webb vs. Chicago. Should the Twins/Rays game play without any weather concerns, Lopez would jump into my top 2 pitchers, over Valdez.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
I know it’s kinda cheating that I’m writing up the Dodgers as one of my top stacks. It’s just too good of a matchup tonight to ignore though. Of the 20 pitchers throwing on this main slate tonight, Austin Gomber has the second-highest ERA over the last month out of all of them as he has a 7.58 ERA. He’s also coming off his worst of the season, a start that saw him give up 8 ER to the Twins in just 3 innings of work.
Can Gomber surprise us tonight and throw a gem? Sure, anything can happen. The odds of it happening though are pretty slim. While both sides of the plate have been really good against him, it’s been the lefties that have given Gomber the most trouble of late. Lefties have a massive .462 ISO and a .540 wOBA vs. him over the last month. There is no need to shy away from a guy like Ohtani tonight.
Core Bats (In preferential order): Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez, Will Smith
Secondary Bats: Andy Pages, Miguel Rojas
Value Bats: Kike Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Miguel Vargas
Everything is setting up for the Brewers to have an offensive explosion tonight. Not only do they face off against a terrible pitcher in Griffin Canning, but they also face off against one of the worst bullpens in the league. First, let’s talk about Griffin Canning. He’s been a home run machine of late. Over the last month, he’s given up 6 bombs in his 29 innings of work. Hitters are seeing him well right now as they have a massive 91% contact rate on pitches he throws in the zone. That’s one of the worst numbers of anyone throwing tonight.
Lefties have really been doing the most damage as they have a .312 ISO against him over the last month. Next, let’s talk about the bullpen for the Angels. Over the last 2 weeks, they own an impressive 8.78 ERA and an xFIP over 5.4. That’s just terrible and with Canning seldom making it past the 6th, we’ll have several innings of the bullpen to play with.
Core Bats: Christian Yelich, Brice Turang
Secondary Bats: William Contreras, Willy Adames, Rhys Hoskins
Value Bats: Sal Frelick, Jackson Chourio, Blake Perkins
Other stacks I like tonight will be the Mets vs. Michael Lorenzen, Braves vs. Casey Mize, Tigers lefties vs. Spencer Schwellenbach, and Twins righties vs. Aaron Civale.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Happy Saturday! We finally made it to the weekend and oh what a weekend it’s going to be. I won’t be writing tomorrow so wanted to wish all the dads here a very happy Father’s Day! I’ll be focused on this afternoon’s 7-game slate of MLB DFS. This slate is void of any true ace. There are a bunch of average pitchers on this slate, none of which will be considered a must-play. We don’t have a single arm over $10k and just 2 over $9k. Ownership should be spread out.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
This year’s version of the Tampa Bay Rays is hot garbage. I started my article yesterday with the hot garbage line and I’m keeping it because it’s accurate. The Rays were dominated by Chris Sale last night and they’ll get dominated by Charlie Morton today. This is a high-strikeout Rays team. The projected lineup today for the Rays has a K rate over 27% against righties this season. Both Brandon Lowe and Randy Arozarena are having down years and that’s contributed to the Rays woes.
This shouldn’t take away from the fact that Charlie Morton continues to pitch well, even into his AARP years. He owns a respectable 4.12 ERA on the year with an xFIP lower than that. He’s known to throw some duds, but I like this spot for him. With how bad pitching is today, I’m going to side matchup over ability. This is a solid matchup.
I don’t normally like to attack the Astros with pitching but without Kyle Tucker in the lineup, they really aren’t as scary as they normally. I’m more so going with Flaherty today because he offers more of a floor than a ceiling and that floor is going to be higher than most other pitchers on this slate. He’s been brilliant in his new home in Detroit. Throughout his career control has really what has brought Flaherty down. His control has been impeccable this season.
His BB/9 is at a career low of 1.24. That is nearly 2 walks lower than his career average. This has caused an uptick in K’s as he’s been able to last longer into games. I don’t think we quite see the massive amounts of strikeouts from him today, but I do think we see a solid outing from him.
I honestly don’t have any interest in anyone else today. The next best pitcher would be Grayson Rodriguez but he gets the Phils. I’m also not paying nearly $10k for Justin Verlander today, even with the matchup. He has more starts of late giving up 4 ER than he does giving up less than that.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Taijuan Walker is having arguably the worst season of his career. His ERA of 5.40 is by far the highest of his career. His xERA is the highest that it’s been since all the way back in 2018. The strikeouts for Walker continue to tread down and his walks continue to tread up. To make matters worse for Walker, he’s also giving up just a ton of hard hits. He’s yet to have a start this season without allowing at least one barrel.
Walker has had more starts this season giving up multiple barrels than he has given up just 1. His barrel % is nearly double his career average. He’s getting pummeled this season and we’ll want to continue to stack against him. With Walker, we want to prioritize getting lefties into our lineup. The Orioles are going to throw out 6 lefties today. It’s a match made in heaven.
Core Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander
Secondary Bats: Ryan O’Hearn, Jordan Westburg
Value Bats: Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser
I ended up going with the Giants last night and they put up 6 runs vs. the Angels. I like the spot again for them as they take on Patrick Sandoval today. Sandoval is nothing more than an average pitcher. In 2 of his last 4 starts, he’s given up at least 5 ER. He’s a low K pitcher who gives up a decent amount of hard contact at more than 35%. He gets a tough matchup today as the Giants are one of the better teams in the league against lefties.
They have the 9th best OPS in the league vs. lefties and have a strong wOBA of .327 vs. them. That ranks 7th best vs. lefties. They should be able to put up a healthy amount of runs vs. Sandoval today. I’m going to be mostly focused on the righties here as they have been putting him to work over the last 30 days.
Core Bats: Heliot Ramos, Jorge Soler, Matt Chapman,
Secondary Bats: Wilmer Flores, Michael Conforto
Value Bats: Austin Slater, Patrick Bailey
Other stacks I like tonight will be the Mets vs. Adam Mazur, Reds Vs. Bryse Wilson, and Braves vs. Ryan Pepiot
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
TGIF! It’s almost the weekend and I don’t know about you, but I’m ready for it! We have a massive 12-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. This is a slate that is very top-heavy with pitching and not much below that. My plan right now is to go with double aces and find some value bats to allow me to get some solid stacks.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
This year’s version of the Tampa Bay Rays is hot garbage. There’s no other way to say it. At 33-36, the Rays currently occupy last place in the AL East. It’s a far cry from the success they’ve had over the last few years. They’ve been especially bad against lefties this season, with a 25% K rate and just a .130 ISO. That K rate is one of the highest rates in the league vs. lefties.
Tonight they’ll be facing one of the best in the game in Chris Sale. It’s a resurgent season for Sale as his new home in Atlanta has done him well. His K’s are back to where they were back in 2019 and his walks are also down to the lowest level of his career. Out of his 12 starts this season, he has just 3 starts that were under 20 DK points. Look for him to continue to make a case for the NL Cy Young award as he blows away the Rays tonight.
For a brief minute there, the Oakland A’s looked like a competent lineup. They even put up an 8 spot vs. Chris Sale a few weeks ago. Those days are long gone though. They are back to their old selves as their record has dipped to 26-45 and have lost 6 straight games. Over the last week, the A’s have scored just 15 runs and own a 35% k rate. Only the Mariners have struck out more times than the A’s this season. And only the fish and White Sox have scored fewer runs.
We are talking about an awful offense. That will set up great for Woods Richardson tonight. While he doesn’t have the K ability as his peers, he does have the matchup and that’s what I’m looking at here. If we can get the normal 5-6 K’s from him today, at his price he should be able to pay off his salary. He’s cheap and in a great matchup.
As I said earlier, there are a ton of options for pitching. Going with double aces is also very much in play. Freddy Peralata vs. Cincy, Tarik Skubal vs. Houston, Cole Ragans vs. LA, Luis Castillo vs. Texas (especially if Seager is out again), and Matt Waldron vs. the Mets are also other options to play with tonight.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
This isn’t just a play on Chris Flexen, but also a play on the White Sox bullpen. Flexen hasn’t been awful of late. Over his last 3 starts, he’s only given 5 ER. Not terrible. But he’s also gone just 5 innings in each of the games and the White Sox ended up giving up at least 6 ER in 2 of the 3 starts. In fact, if we look at his last 8 starts, opposing teams have scored at least 6 runs in all but 2 of them.
That’s because he’s not going long and we’re getting close to half the game with the White Sox pen. Over the last 2 weeks, the White Sox pen has an ERA that’s pushing 9. If we can get another 4-5 innings of the White Sox bullpen today, we’ll get a ton of runs from the Diamondbacks. Don’t get me wrong though, even if the White Sox bullpen wasn’t that bad I’d still be stacking against Flexen because he’s terrible.
Core Bats: Corbin Carroll, Joc Pederson, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte
Secondary Bats: Lourdes Gurriel
Value Bats: Gabrial Moreno, Geraldo Perdomo, Jake McCarthy
My family and I went to the Braves/Orioles game and I noticed something very glaring. The Braves hit the ball damn hard. Almost every ball hit yesterday was smoked. Not a single one of their hits were cheapies. Their offense has been mostly stagnant of late but they’re poised for a huge breakout and I think it comes tonight against Zack Littell. Littell is mostly a low-strikeout pitcher. Yeah, he K’d 9 A’s a few weeks ago, but who hasn’t? He’s coming off back-to-back appearances vs. the O’s that saw him strikeout just 5 hitters across the 2 games.
In comparison, he also gave up 5 barrels. A 1:1 K to barrel % isn’t ideal. Now if you were getting 10 K’s a game that’s one thing, but we’re not seeing that from Littell. He’s given up multiple barrels in 5 games, with 3 of the games having 3 a piece. He’s getting rocked and he’s going to wake the sleeping giant known as the Braves today. We want to prioritize the lefties here as they have a .258 ISO and a .402 wOBA against him over the last month.
Core Bats: Michael Harris, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson
Secondary Bats: Marcel Ozuna, Austin Riley,
Value Bats: Jarred Kelenic, Orlando Arcia
Other stacks I like tonight will be the Padres vs. Sean Manea, White Sox vs. Ryne Nelson, and both sides of the Pirates/Rockies game.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
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