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MLB DFS

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday 8.17

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday 8.17

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday 8.17! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

Wow, pitching doesn’t look very fun at all today outside of a couple options. Number one with a bullet for me is Zac Gallen. He’s averaging 19.2 DK points with a 2.74 ERA, 29.8% K rate and a 12.1% swinging strike rate. If that’s not good enough, he’s compiled those numbers facing the Padres, Dodgers, Astros and in Coors Field.

He gets the A’s tonight who sit eighth in K rate to RHP at 24.9% on the season. Six of the projected A’s hitters are over 22% in K rate since last season, making Gallen a perfect and cheap fit under $9,000.

Ross Stripling has been up and down his first four starts. He has two single-digit DK point games and two of at least 18 DK. At his price, I’m very interested against our favorite team to pick on, Seattle. Some of Stripling’s metrics are great, in honesty. His fly ball rate and hard contact rate are both higher than we like to see. I contemplated Griffin Canning but some of his metrics were even worse.

We’ll stick with Stripling and hope for the best here. We know Seattle strikes out a good bit, almost 24% of the time. Even in the last two weeks when they’ve cut back on the strikeouts a touch, they are still bottom five in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Stripling has some warts but the matchup points us towards success. This pitching tandem might be popular but I’m fine taking the two best looking pitchers on a slate that doesn’t offer me much. You can always get different on offense.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

It’s little early to know where all the ownership comes in but it’s also tough to not love the White Sox here against Matt Boyd and the Detroit bullpen. Not only has Boyd been mauled to a 10.24 ERA so far with five home runs given up, the Tigers bullpen has a 20% K rate as a unit. That’s third-worst and if you can’t strike out this White Sox team, they’re going to do damage.

The core three for me in this stack are Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez. Since last year, all three are at least at a .209 ISO and .322 wOBA vs LHP. It’s easy to sprinkle in Luis Robert, Yasmani Grandal and even Yoan Moncada. If Boyd gets bounced early, Moncada doesn’t have to worry about a LvL matchup that isn’t his forte.

We need a creative stack to go with them and I’m looking at another team that mashes LHP in the Baltimore Orioles. WE mentioned it briefly when they faced Patrick Corbin, but the O’s offense is much better than perception. Just against lefty pitching, they are first in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Hyun-Jin Ryu is a good pitcher but Baltimore can absolutely get to him.

Fitting hitters like Hanser Alberto, Renato Nunez and Anthony Santander gets really fun with the White Sox offense. They all sit over a .330 wOBA and the latter two are over a .230 ISO. Don’t forget about Pedro Severino if you spend up on catcher either. Mixing and matching White Sox and Orioles should leave you quite different and able to eat a chalky pitcher duo.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

We are in line to have an 11 game slate and we always want to look to be different. With offenses like the Dodgers, Astros, Red Sox and Yankees all in varying degrees of good spots, I hope the White Sox and Orioles come in lower-owned. I’d certainly want some exposure to those offenses we talked about if you’re playing a bunch of lineups. If you’re shooting for the Ricky Bobby “First or Last” theory, this is going to be a fun way to go!

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB GPP Picks 8/16

billyr011199@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by billyr011199@gmail.com

MLB GPP Picks 8/16

In this article I will be breaking down MLB GPP Picks 8/16. I will inform you with at least one player per position that strikes my interest and If I am interested in a player on only one site, I will be site specific. I will be using DraftKings pricing for this article.

Today, we have an eight game MLB slate to dissect. With Max Scherzer likely the highest owned pitcher on the slate its hard to steer away from him. Zack Wheeler is priced just below 10K at $9,900 but has not seen much for strikeouts only recording eight so far this season. The Philadelphia game could also have some weather issues that you are going to want to keep an eye on. With that being said make sure you tune into the Discord Chat to join myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff as we will stay up to date and keep you informed on starting lineups and weather information.

Pitcher

Max Scherzer – ($10,800)

He has reached double digit strikeouts in two of the three games he has pitched more than one inning, leading to a strikeout rate of 43.9% against right handed hitters and 26.2% to left handed hitters. He has a whopping 23.93% swinging strike rate against right handed hitters, with a total swinging strike rate of about 17%. Wheeler only has a 7.4% strikeout rate against lefties and the Mets have a plethora of left handed hitters to start against Wheeler. I will have a heavy amount of Mad Max today and mix in several cheaper pitchers to get different.

Travis d’Arnaud – ($2,500)

This man was just near $4,500 the past few days now he’s way down at this price its hard to look away from. It provides you with a catcher who has been extremely hot at a discounted price, that gives you flexibility for the rest of your lineup build. Elieser Hernandez best pitch to right handed hitters is a slider. Facing Sliders this season d’Arnaud has a .625 ISO and a wOBA of .656. This will likely be another key piece to majority of my lineup builds.

1^st base

Howie Kendrick – ($3,800)

Squaring off against John Means who has surrendered an ISO of .261 to right handed hitters this year. Kendrick has been solid against lefties early this season as well with an ISO of .273 and a wOBA of .335. This spot and price are a bargain for Kendrick who should also hit either in the fourth of fifth position in the lineup.

2^nd base

Jason Kipnis – ($2,700)

The opposing pitcher is Josh Lindblom. He has struggled against left handed hitters this season giving up an ISO of .464 and a wOBA of .481. Kipnis has been hitting well with an average of .357 and he is still this cheap. He has smashed right handed pitching this season with an ISO of .500 and a wOBA of .537. This is an excellent value play that should pay off.

3^rd base

Brian Anderson – ($4,300)

Just want to start by saying that Anderson has scored fantasy points in every game that he has played thus far. He is in a favorable matchup against a lefty who has been terrible this year. Robbie Erlin has a massive .563 ISO against right handed hitters this season. Anderson has done well against left handed pitching with an ISO of .273 and a hard hit percentage of 66.7%.

Carlos Correa – ($4,800)

Justus Sheffield the opposing pitcher for Correa has a 50% hard hit rate against him this season. Correa has faired well against lefties this season with a wOBA of .435 and a hard hit percentage of 61.5%. 40 percent of Correa’s hard hit balls have had an exit velocity greater than 95MPH, a very impressive stat.

Ian Happ – ($3,300)

As mentioned in the Kipnis section this is a pitcher that had a tough time against left handed hitters. Happ has been fantastic against right handed pitching this season a .324 ISO and a .416 wOBA. The opposing pitcher has also surrendered a hard hit percentage of 53.3% versus left handed hitters.

Bryce Harper – ($5,300)

Rick Porcello has had a difficult time missing bats as he carries a 85.5% contact percentage and only a 6.1% swinging strike percentage. Not only does he not miss bats but has a 50% hard hit percentage as well. Harper has a .404 wOBA and a hard hit percentage of 51.9% against right handed pitching.

Thanks for taking the time to read my article MLB GPP Picks 8/16 for this eight game slate. On DraftKings I’m intrigued to see where ownership will fall other than on Scherzer because I think you can do many different ways. My favorite stacks are Houston, Philadelphia, Washington, and those Cubs left handers. Lets not forget we do have a couple games with potential rain, the Phillies game being one of them. In order to stay up to date on weather conditions and lineup news be sure to check into the Discord chat rooms. Have a great Sunday, and best of luck!

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Sunday 8.16

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Sunday 8.16

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Sunday 8.16! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

Isn’t it so weird to look at Max Scherzer and see a 2.75 ERA and 1.32 WHIP and feel he’s been mildly disappointing? The K rate is basically identical to last year but one thing that’s been hurting him is walks. His career mark is 6.7% and this season is 12%. If Scherzer was his usual price I might even preach some caution. However, I tend to think it irons out fast. When Scherzer is under $11,000 and there’s no obvious alternative, I’m just plugging and playing.

The SP2 spot is where we can get different. We can certainly go the expensive route and play Lance McCullers. The Picks and Pivots Seattle Mariners Flow Chart is in full effect here. McCullers is a talented right, the Mariners are a huge K team and in the bottom half vs the curve. McCullers fits the bill, but doesn’t leave us with a ton of salary for offense.

If we want to save some money, let’s look at an intriguing arm for the Brewers. Josh Linblom doesn’t look like much on the surface with a 5.68 ERA but he does have a 3.22 xFIP. Really, he’s been bit by the home run ball so far. He gave up three against the Twins (no shame there) and it’s skewed some stats.

What we want is the 35.7% K rate. Since the Cubs whiff at a top five rate vs RHP, Lindblom could be a very cheap source of K’s. When playing Scherzer and needing some good bats, Lindblom looks like a great (albeit risky) option. The McCullers/Scherzer pair is the cash pair today, but I want Scherzer/Lindblom in GPP.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

Normally this would be the spot where I want to attack Jon Lester but I just can’t do it. The Brewers offense has been feeble and while I may have one-offs like Keston Hiura or Christian Yelich, I will likely not end on a Brewers stack today. Until we meet again, Jon.

I’m looking at the offense that sits 10th in wOBA vs RHP and that’s the Philadelphia Phillies. This one does need the weather to cooperate but we can turn to a core group of Bryce Harper, Jay Bruce, Didi Gregorious and Alec Bohm. I’m a sucker for super cheap prospects like Bohm and then a three lefties all carry wOBA’s over .310 vs RHP. Bruce and Harper supply the power with ISO’s over .225. Rick Porcello has given up a .346 wOBA to LHH and an .828 OPS, which falls in line with 2019 numbers. If your build takes you to an expensive catcher, JT Realmuto is always in play.

I think the Houston Astros get some love again (likely my sub for Phillies if weather is a bust) but let’s take a look at the Twins. They get Brady Singer who is talented but has some flaws. Some of which include his 5.75 FIP, 1.65 WHIP, 50% hard contact and 40% fly ball rate to LHH. That’s not what you want against Minnesota. All the lefties are in play but the three in the top four of Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario and Jorge Polanco all have wOBA’s over .335 vs RHP and K rates under 18%.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

We do need some cooperation today for the main points of Picks and Pivots to be valid. Also, don’t forget Sunday lineups can be funky. A couple teams played doubleheaders yesterday so be sure to check lineups. Right now, I like Philly and Minnesota, with Houston serving as the alternate. If you MME, my sneaky offenses of the day are Detroit and Miami. The Tigers especially could give leverage on Adam Plutko.

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

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FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown For 8.15

Uriah Wesson 5 years ago

written by Uriah Wesson

Alright, ladies and gentlemen! We have ourselves an interesting little five-game slate to get into today. Our studs have tough matchups, a ton of middling pitchers, and negative park effects all over the place so I’ll do my best today to make sure you have good information to go off of to prepare you for this 7 gamer. Here is my Win Daily Sports FanDuel main slate breakdown for 8.15.

Main Slate Breakdown for 8.15 Pitching:

Quick note: I am going under the assumption that this whole Orioles offense being good thing is real so I’m not touching Corbin today. If you think that it is a fluke, He should be in play for Cash or GPP. I just think his ownership will still be high because they see Cobrin vs. Orioles and there will not even be the benefit of an ownership drop.

Cash:

Cristian Javier, Astros, 7.8K:

I’m not really interested in anyone besides German Marquez tonight near the top of the pitching list on FanDuel. When you dig into the numbers they just aren’t worth the price and I can honestly see guys like Corbin, Buehler, and Paxton get rocked. Javier has a 27 percent K rate this season while Seattle sits at or near the bottom in every major statistical hitting category. Javier has shown flashes this season including an outing versus the Dodgers where he whiffed eight while only giving up one earned against the Dodgers.

German Marquez:

Marquez is my favorite pitcher overall tonight. The Rangers have hit a grand total of 12 home runs and 57 RBI’s this season and German is sitting at a 27 percent K rate and has only allowed 6 earned in 4 outings thus far. the only guys who concern me to any extent tonight are Joey Gallo and Shin-Soo Choo but given the Rangers track record for run production even they aren’t really much of an issue.

GPP

Nathan Eovaldi:

This one is absolutely a high-risk play. The Yankees have been mashing this season but Eovaldi hasn’t performed horribly and Judge and Stanton are sidelined with injuries drastically reducing the risk. Don’t get me wrong, the Yanks can still smash even without them but Eovaldi is striking out 24 percent and his fly-ball rate against right-handed bats is a touch over 24 percent so I’ll take the risk.

Alex Young, Diamondbacks, 5.7K:

If you really want to load up on the Rockies tonight you will need some value at pitching tonight and I like Young in that role. His numbers are skewed due do him being a bullpen arm but he has been strong against right-handed bats with a pretty low 30 percent hard-hit rate and only a .167 ISO in limited work. He could very well bust, I’m aware of that, but it won’t take much more than 4-5 innings of work with 4-5 strikeouts to return more than enough in terms of value.

Main Slate Breakdown for 8.15 Stacks and Bats:

Oakland:

I’m really liking the Oakland bats tonight. After giving it a little time to see what the park adjustments in San Fransisco would mean for production we can reasonably say that Oracle has gone from one of the worst hitters parks to on of the better parks in 2020. Kevin Gausman is sporting a hard-hit rate around 40% for both righties and lefties this season, we do not have any BVP data but Marcus Semien, Matt Chapman, Matt Olsen, and MarkCahna all sport an ISO over .220 against RHP and fly ball rates over 40% with the wind blowing out at around 10 mph tonight. Plus you get the added benefit of no bat priced over 3.7K.

Cash or GPP: Chapman, Olsen, Simien, Olsen

Angels:

This one isn’t for the faint of heart as Walker Buehler is hovering right up there with Corbin tonight in price and being on the west coast folks may not have noticed that he isn’t pitching all that well this. In 3 appearances he’s given up 12 runs in a little over 14 innings with a 57% fly-ball rate overall with a 47% hard-hit rate against right-handed bats. Still a small sample this season but guys like Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Shohei Ohtani, Jason Castro, and Brian Goodwin are all popping out as good plays today. All have ISO’s of over .250 against RHP this season and hard-hit rates over 40 percent.

Cash: Trout, Ohtani, Rendon GPP: Goodwin, Castro

Rockies:

It’s shaping up to be a rough night for Kyle Gibson. Pitching in Colorado is hard enough. Combine that with a 70 (yes 70) percent hard-hit rate in three starts and a lineup full of guys who can get the ball in the air and we may see several leave the park tonight. Implied total for the Rockies is over 6.5 right now and it actually opened at 6.8, that is a crazy number. Nolan Arenado, Garrett Hampson, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, and Daniel Murphy all profile extremely well in this contest tonight. My builds are likely going to be a ton of Oakland and Colorado tonight.

Others to consider: Rays, Phillies, Nationals, and ALWAYS DODGERS

Cash and GPP: Hampson, Blackmon, Arenado, Story, Murphy

Favorite Pitcher:

Cash: Marquez

GPP: Eovaldi

Favorite Stack: Oakland and Colorado

Favorite Chalk Player: Charlie Blackmon

Favorite Low Owned Player: Mark Canha

Salary Saver: Brian Goodwin

Home Run Call: Matt Olsen

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports FanDuel main slate 8.15 breakdown. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday 8.15

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday 8.15

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday 8.15! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

Choices for SP1

Yesterday’s slate looked phenomenal for pitching and then we had some scratches that threw it out of whack. Today’s slate doesn’t look nearly as appealing off the the top. I have to assume that Patrick Corbin and Walker Buehler are going to be popular options. The rest of the options are highly unstable.

I can absolutely understand going using one in cash games but this is Picks and Pivots. We’re focused on GPP and there’s potentially a couple gems hiding in plain sight.

I don’t believe Brian would be happy with me covering for him if I didn’t talk up a righty against the Seattle Mariners so let’s look at Christian Javier. He’s been a mixed bag so far with great starts vs the Dodgers and D-Backs but is coming off a poor outing vs the A’s. He’s been using the fastball/slider combo around 88% of the time. Seattle checks in at 28th vs the fastball and 20th vs the slider.

The pitch data is in Javier’s favor and he has 26.7% K rate. He’s starting to look solid at his price. Now we look at the Mariners projected lineup and see that seven of their hitters have K rates over 24%. At under $7,500, Javier is one way to get a quality start without spending five digits.

Choices for SP2

Now it’s time to get crazy because I’m going after Kevin Gausman as my SP2 tonight. He’s pitched 20 innings so far this season and has racked up a 28.1% K rate and slashed his walk rate to 2.4%. He’s exceeded 16 DK three straight games including starts in Coors Field and in LA vs the Dodgers. His .327 BABIP certainly suggests that his 4.05 ERA has been unlucky and the 2.43 FIP backs that up.

His splits so far this year would indicate success vs the A’s lineup as well. He’s faced 45 RHH so far and has only give up a .228 wOBA, .190 average and has a 33.3% K rate. The A’s are just average vs the fastball, and the fastball/splitter have accounted for all of Gausman’s strikeouts so far. Six projected hitters for Oakland have K rates over 24% and five are RHH. Remember that this approach is GPP only but this leaves us with quite a bit of salary.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

If you MME, I would have a Baltimore stack or two. That is specifically for MME only, however. One of the main stacks to catch my eye tonight is the San Diego Padres. I always prefer them against a LHP and Arizona is throwing Alex Young tonight. He’s only pitched 9.1 innings this year so small sample is noted. He still has a fly ball and hard hit rate over 41%, a 5.71 FIP and he’s given up three homers.

The trio of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Wil Myers really stand out tonight. Myers and Tatis are in the top 3 of San Diego’s hitters against the fastball and slider (Young’s most used pitches). They also all three have an ISO over .320. If you go full out Padres, consider Tommy Pham and Ed Olivares as well.

To complement, I’m going right back to the well with the Houston Astros. They get another lefty to start in Nick Margevicius and are coming off an 11 run night. In addition, they faced the Seattle bullpen for basically the entire game last night. If you play the main three for the Padres, the grouping of George Springer, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Yuli Gurriel work perfectly.

All four have ISO’s over .230 vs LHP since last year and wOBA’s over .330. It just comes down to deciding on Machado and Tatis or playing Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa at 3B and SS. Truly, either option works and you can use the other Padres instead of Springer or Alvarez.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

With a much smaller slate on tap for tonight, we’re likely to see more chalk than last night. We talked about the top end pitchers and I would bet the Dodgers offense carries some ownership against Andrew Heaney. Taking the approach laid out here is likely to be a little against the grain, but we should always try to think a little outside the box for GPP.

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday 8.14

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday 8.14

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday 8.14! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

I could be wrong but I feel like this is the most loaded pitching slate we’ve had all year and I’m pretty excited about it. Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Clayton Kershaw, Dinelson Lamet, Lance Lynn, Frankie Montas, Aaron Civale, Brandon Woodruff….whew! There’s a ton to love here. That doesn’t even mention Spencer Howard at just $4,000.

When we are #blessed with pitching slates like this, I always tend to eschew to high end pitching. The theory being why pay top dollar for Cole or deGrom when you can potentially mimic their scores for a couple thousand dollars less? That should leave you more options for your offense which we’ll get to here shortly.

Choices for SP1

My first pitcher in comes down to Civale or Lamet. Both are averaging an identical 23.1 DK points per start and they are only $100 apart. My normal lean would be Lamet. I am a huge fan and he’s been pretty ridiculous through his first four turns. The K rate is 31.3% and the FIP is only 2.63. We do have to note the hard contact and fly ball rate aren’t spectacular at 45.1%. However, when your swinging strike rate is 15.1% those are lesser concerns.

My biggest concern with Lamet is this is not only the second straight time he sees Arizona, but the third in five starts. It’s never really been proven but there’s a train of thought that pitchers can struggle seeing the same team repeatedly. If that’s enough to worry you, simply turn to Civale.

The matchup is actually better for the Indians righty, as Detroit sports the highest K rate in the league to RHP at 31.2%. Civale does have a lower swinging strike rate at 11.2% than Lamet, but the 31.1% K rate overall is identical. Every single hitter in the Tigers projected lineup has a a K rate of at least 20% and six are over 24%. This is truly a toss-up as Lamet is more talented but Civale has the slightest edge I believe.

Choices for SP2

The choice here is a little bit clearer and it’s Montas for me. Much like Lamet, I do have a soft spot for Montas but he’s actually not even hit his real potential yet this season. That’s pretty scary for a pitcher who’s averaging 20.3 DK points so far this year.

Why do I think he hasn’t hit his potential? His splitter has not been a good pitch so far this year. In 2019, Montas had a top 20 splitter via FanGraphs ratings. He had a 22.8% whiff rate on it and only gave up a .155 average and .107 ISO on the pitch.

2020 has seen a marked shift in efficiency with the splitter. It’s not giving up power (Montas has yet to give up a homer) but the .308 average catches your eye. The BABIP of .571 does as well, so this means it will regress to the mean. When it does, Montas has even higher heights to reach. In 2019, the Giants were fourth-worst to splitters and sit 20th so far in 202. Montas is too cheap.

With Montas now being scratched, I’m shifting my attention to making a Lamet/Civale pairing work out instead of spending all the way up to Cole. It might mean a slight downgrade somewhere offensively, but both pitchers have 8-10 strikeout upside tonight.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

We’ll have to be slightly crafty with our stacks this evening with our pitching tandem but there’s two that fit well together. That includes a salary perspective and good matchup perspective.

The first stack is the Houston Astros. I was on board with the possibility that Yusei Kikuchi was a different pitcher this year but that seems false. He has a 1.22 WHIP to RHH and Houston is primed to smash LHP. The returning Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel, George Springer and then one of Alex Bregman or Jose Altuve is how I’m looking to build this stack.

We need some cheaper options to fill the gaps and here come the Los Angeles Dodgers RHH. We likely can’t afford Mr. Three Homer Mookie Betts but that’s alright. AJ Pollock, Kike Hernandez and Chris Taylor fit with the Astros pretty nicely here. These three players have at least a .337 wOBA and .178 ISO vs LHP since 2019. With Angels starter Patrick Sandoval giving up a .362 wOBA to RHH so far with just a 12.5% K rate, they are a perfect fit.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

If everything cooperates, we have 13 games on this slate and it feels like just a million ways to go. Remember, every other player has the same slots you do. Narrow down your choices and stick to your guns. It’s hard not to love being able to play offenses like the Astros and Dodgers with some serious pitching potential tonight, which is where I’m headed. These two offenses really work well together positionally on top of it.

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Taut Thursday, Aces and Bases for 8.13

scotthouston1971@yahoo.com 5 years ago

written by scotthouston1971@yahoo.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 13th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Anthony DeSclafani ($8,200 DK / $7,100 FD)

DeSclafani’s slider was marvelous vs the Brewers. I have been rolling pitchers out a lot against the Brewers this year because of their noted struggles to hit balls thrown in the zone right now, DeSclanfani took advantage of that and went slider heavy with some sinkers and curveballs mixed in as well, which produced some good whiffs, and 6 Ks over 6 scoreless innings.

Ideally I would like to see more 4 seamers up and less sinkers, but I’m very comfortable rolling DeSclafani out for this price against Pittsburgh

Honorable Mentions: Nobody

Top Ace(s): Yu Darvish ($10,300 DK / $9,600 FD)

Speaking of the Brewers who love to swing and miss, Yu Darvish will get to face them at home today. Darvish leaned on the curveball more last time we saw him throw and I hope he does more of the same, keeping the fastball, sitting at 95mph, up in the zone.

Against this current Brewers roster, Darvish has generated 36Ks (30%) and a just a .201 BA against, with the underlying stats to back it up.

About Glasnow, he should be stretched out to about 80 pitches today, that sounds nice but the curveball just was not there last time out against the Yankees. Leaning on the fastball more the Yanks were able to really get after him, with just too many fastballs low in the zone. This one feels like a coin flip.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Glasnow

Punt Play: Jake Arrieta ($7,300 DK / $8,300 FD)

Man. Arrieta sure looked like his old self against the Braves last week. Sinkers were thrown all over the zone as Arrieta tamed Atlanta to 6 scoreless innings and 6 Ks backing that up.

While I doubt Arrieta is magically his Cy Young self again, were getting a great price to face an over performing Orioles team. Like leading the AL in batting average and slugging percentage over performing.

Honorable Mentions: Nobody

Top Fade: Chris Paddack ($9,100 DK / ( N/A FD)

What happened to that fastball command and beautiful change up that was striking everybody out last year? More and more curveballs are being mixed in, which is ideally what we would like to see, but at what cost Paddack!

The Dodgers have already seen Paddack plenty in his young career and are carrying a .571 SLG (.595 xSLG) and solid 20% K rate into this matchup. I’m good with just sitting this one out.

The FD slate is even tighter than DK today, I dont see a real fade play there and would just stick with the above options

Honorable Mention: None

MLB DFS: The Bases

Very small slate today and we have weather concerns to deal with. Honestly, I’m going to play one lineup on DK and one on FD and call it a night.

We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for the Thursday’s Main Slate.

Top Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies – Eshelman is awful. Highest fly-ball/line-drive rate on the slate and he doesn’t miss many barrels. Just eat the chalk with Philly today and get different with a few one-offs.

Value Stacks

Baltimore Orioles – Arrieta is almost as bad as Eshelman in terms of fly-ball/line-drive rate, barrels, and average exit velocity. If the weather holds up, this game should offer up a lot of run scoring.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @TimmySigs and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday 8.13

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday 8.13

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday 8.13! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

There’s some big names on this small slate but there is one name that stands out on 2020 performance and that’s Yu Darvish. His per game average scoring is dragged down by a poor first outing. I’m not concerned and he’s rebounded since with 13 IP, 11 K’s and one earned run.

We’ve talked about how poor the Brewers offense is playing right now. It kept going last night when they got bludgeoned by the Twins. The K rate is still a healthy 24.6% and the FIP is 1.68. On top of that, the hard contact and fly ball rates are both under 30.5%.

Next up for me is Anthony DeSclafani. I’m not over the moon for his price, but his fist 11 IP this year have been sterling. He’s yet to allow a run, has a FIP of 1.85 and a K rate of 21.1%. The fly balls are under 28% and he gets the Pittsburgh Pirates. Not only have they had a few days off thanks to the Cardinals, they rank dead last in average, OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Now let’s find some cheaper stacks to pair up.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

We’re going to be looking a little bit cheaper by default with our SP. It works out that the Tampa Bay Rays flirted with double digit runs last night and are cheap today. Boston is starting Kyle Hart, a 27 year old lefty making his major league debut. His numbers in the minors last year included a K rate under 20%, an xFIP of 5.17 and a 1.27 WHIP.

The top of the Rays lineup looks quite juicy. Mike Brosseau, Austin Meadows, Yandy Diaz, Jose Martinez and Hunter Renfroe all have an ISO of at least .230 vs LHP since 2019. The lowest wOBA among them? .330 for Meadows, who also has the only K rate above 25% of the group. Everyone outside of Meadows is under $4,000 making them an easy fit with more expensive pitching.

Consider mixing in Reds and Padres hitters as well. For the Reds, Pirates starter Trevor Williams has historically struggled with LHH. He’s also getting hit hard by RHH in his first few starts. Lastly, he’s been worse on the road so this is a bad mix for him. The Dodgers are throwing Julio Urias but San Diego has lefty killers through the top five of their lineup. Urias only has an 18% K rate to RHH and that could be an issue. Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado and Wil Myers sport ISO’s of at least .320 and wOBA’s of at least .394 vs LHP.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

Just by default, you’re going to have some chalk on a five game slate. I would expect the pitching combo that we laid out to be chalk. The Rays should also be popular, so my goal is to have a 3-4 man stack from two teams. San Diego should be lower owned on this slate. The Padres and Rays work extremely well positionally because the Rays can fill 1B, 2B and an OF spot. The Padres can fill SS, 3B and an OF spot. With on or two Reds, you’re all set!

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

8.13 MLB DFS Look Ahead Podcast

Michael Rasile 5 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

8.13 MLB DFS Look Ahead Podcast

On the 8.13 MLB DFS Look Ahead, Jim and Michael check out the 8.13 MLB slate and give their favorite plays for the night!

Listen to the show below and make sure to subscribe on your podcast app of choice!

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MLB DFS: Withered Wednesday, Aces and Bases for 8.12

Patrick Waters 5 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 12th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Kenta Maeda ($9,100 DK / $8,700 FD)

Kenta is the most appealing arm to me today so were lucky he is the 3rd option off the board on the midweek slate. The Brewers have just been downright awful at hitting balls thrown in the zone this year, swinging just 63% of the time on pitches in the zone, and whiffing 31% of the time when they do swing.

Maeda has great command and will pound the zone producing lots of whiffs today, the strikeouts will follow.

Honorable Mentions: Masahiro Tanaka

Top Ace(s): Zach Grienke ($10,300 DK / $9,800 FD)

Not much for real Aces on the main slate today. Grienke should have a good showing against the Giants, but he is not the guy that is going to produce a bunch of strikeouts and put up a million points for you.

I still like this play because he should go deep into the game, but the price and presumed ownership percentage make this play a bit less appealing.

Honorable Mention: Julio Urias

Punt Play: Jordan Lyles ($7,300 DK / $6,600 FD)

The fastball for Lyles has been rough, getting almost zero whiffs (4.3%) on it and its getting hit a lot garnering a .504 xSLG. The secondaries have been just fine, the slider gets plenty of whiffs, just beat a little when contact does get made. All Lyles has to do is polish that fastball up and things will be much better.

On a brighter note Lyles gets the Mariners and almost anyone at this price against them is worth it. Especially if that roof is closed.

Honorable Mentions: Wade LeBlanc

Top Fade: Blake Snell ($9,400 DK / ($8,500 FD)

I know, I know. This is a great spot for Snell to light it up, but he was under 60 pitches thrown last time out and the Rays will not let him go too deep here. I love Snell but it looks like hes still a couple starts away from being 100% stretched out and we can dodge this price knowing that.

Honorable Mention: None

MLB DFS: The Bases

There are a ton of different ways to build your offense on these big slates. Personally, I’m going to take a stand on a few offenses and call it a day. If you’re play MME style of GPPs, you can always get some exposure to more offenses, but for 3-Entry Max and Single Entry GPPs, I’m going to battle with a very limited player pool, as I really want to pick on a couple of starting pitchers and weaker bullpens.

We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for the Wednesday’s Main Slate.

Top Stacks

Houston Astros – The Astros have been beating up on the Giants all week and that shouldn’t change today as the Giants are rolling out Trevor Cahill. Cahill hasnt thrown since hurting his finger in July and this lines up as a scary season debut.
New York Yankees– The Atlanta pitching staff is in shambles at the moment. The Braves are recalling Bryce Wilson to face the Yanks and should tear the young prospect up.

Value Stacks

Minnesota Twins – Not tons of value to be had as the big bats are priced accordingly usually but I have to have some Twins action today as they get ready to face Eric Lauer who gave 6 earned runs is his last start vs the reds.
Tampa Bay Rays – The Red Sox are rolling out Zach Godley who is touting a 1.50 WHIP through 11 IPs this season. I liked the Rays yesterday and they threw up an 8 spot. I expect more of the same tonight.

Monkey Knife Fight

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! As I said I like the Yankees stack here and you can stack 3 of their offensive players to hit the over on at least 15.5 fantasy points and win 5x your money! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday 8.17

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

MLB GPP Picks 8/16

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Sunday 8.16

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

Main Slate Breakdown for 8.15 Pitching:

Cash:

Cristian Javier, Astros, 7.8K:

German Marquez:

GPP

Nathan Eovaldi:

Alex Young, Diamondbacks, 5.7K:

Main Slate Breakdown for 8.15 Stacks and Bats:

Oakland:

Angels:

Rockies:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday 8.15

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

Choices for SP1

Choices for SP2

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday 8.14

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

Choices for SP1

Choices for SP2

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Anthony DeSclafani ($8,200 DK / $7,100 FD)

Top Ace(s): Yu Darvish ($10,300 DK / $9,600 FD)

Punt Play: Jake Arrieta ($7,300 DK / $8,300 FD)

Top Fade: Chris Paddack ($9,100 DK / ( N/A FD)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Value Stacks

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday 8.13

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

8.13 MLB DFS Look Ahead Podcast

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Kenta Maeda ($9,100 DK / $8,700 FD)

Top Ace(s): Zach Grienke ($10,300 DK / $9,800 FD)

Punt Play: Jordan Lyles ($7,300 DK / $6,600 FD)

Top Fade: Blake Snell ($9,400 DK / ($8,500 FD)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Value Stacks

Monkey Knife Fight

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