MLB DFS

Hope you all had a great MDW. I also hope you were able to take some time to reflect on the memories of those who served and are no longer with us.  Tonight we have ourselves a nice-sized 10-game slate of MLB DFS.  We have some solid pitching.  We also have some really great spots for bats.  It’s shaping up to be a really fun slate that can take us in a few different directions. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Freddy Peralta ($10.5k on DK) vs. Chicago Cubs

One has to wonder if Craig Counsell is having second thoughts about his decision to bolt Milwaukee for Chicago.  The Cubs are losers of 5 straight and playing some very average to below-average baseball.  They have a 29% k rate over the last week while scoring just 16 runs.  On the other end of the spectrum, we have the Brewers owning a 4.5-game lead over the said Cubbies and playing some really solid baseball this season.  I’m going to attack the Cubs tonight with Peralta.  Peralta continues to pitch well. 

On the year, Peralta has a 3.81 ERA and xFIP lower than that at 3.26.  He did face this Cubs team a few weeks ago and was hampered by control as he walked 6.  We’ve seen him reel back the command as over his last 3 outings he has just 3 combined walks.  If that trend of command continues tonight, he has immense upside against a team striking out quite a bit right now.  He’s my favorite pay-up pitcher tonight. 

Kevin Gausman ($8.5k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

I have nothing but love for the city of Chicago.  That said, I will more than likely be picking on both teams from that city tonight.  I hope the weather holds out for us tonight because this is a great spot for Kevin Gausman.  Over his last 4 starts, Gausman has struck, out 30 batters for an average of nearly 7 per game.  He’s also coming off his best start of the year, a start that saw him K 10 Tigers and only allow a single run to score across 6 innings of work.  His xFIP in May is a very solid 2.52 and he gets to face a White Sox team that is striking out a ton. 

Over the last week, the White Sox have a 30% K rate and have scored just 22 runs.  There’s a weather risk here but it does look like this game should be able to be played after a delay to start the game.  If it does, Gausman makes a great pairing with Peralta where we’ll still be able to get nearly $3.9k per hitter tonight.

The other pitches I like tonight will be Zack Wheeler vs. San Fran, Dane Dunning vs. Arizona, Matt Waldron vs. Miami (he’s my fallback guy in the event Tor/CHW gets PPD), and Cole Ragans vs. Minny.  My one concern with Wheeler is that the Giants do not strike out a ton.  They have just a 21% K rate vs. righties this season and just a 21% k rate over the last week.  I’m not paying $11k for a pitcher against a team that lowers his ceiling.  

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Mike Clevinger

I really hope this game plays tonight.  Not just because I like Gausman here, but I also really like the Toronto bats.  Clevinger has not fared well this season.  Through his 4 starts, he owns a 6.75 ERA and an xFIP over 5.  Out of the 4 starts, only one has seen him leave after giving up less than 3 ER.  In the games he’s started, the White Sox have given up 8 runs in half of them.  With a matchup against a Blue Jays team that is finally hitting well, that means we have a struggling pitcher vs. a team on a roll. 

Only 4 teams have scored more runs than the Blue Jays over the last week.  Clevinger also lines up perfectly for this Blue Jays team.  This season, righties have a .778 slugging % vs. him and a .540 wOBA.  He should face a Blue Jays lineup where the heart and soul is righty.

Core Bats: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero, Davis Schneider, Danny Jansen – listed in order of preference.

Secondary Bats: George Springer, Daulton Varsho

Value Bats: Isiah Kiner-Falefa

New York Yankees vs. Griffin Canning

If ever there was a pitching that was skating on thin ice, it’s Griffin Canning.  Canning’s xFIP is more than 2.5 runs higher than his ERA.  When I see that large of a delta, I anticipate that there will be some regression coming.  In Canning’s case, there are plenty of indicators that lead me to believe that it’s coming, and it’s coming tonight vs. the Yankees.  He’s a low strikeout pitcher that is giving up loads of hard contact and has an extremely low BABIP of just .205.  He’s also giving up a fly-ball rate of nearly 46%.  He’s also given up 8 barrels over his last 27 innings of work. 

There are warning flags everywhere for Canning.  A lot of the regression I see coming is going to be against righties.  He has a higher BB/9 than K/9 against righties this season at home and righties at home also have just a .185 BABIP.  I’m loading up on Yankees righties today with the hope the regression happens today.

Core Bats: Judge, Soto, and Stanton

Secondary Bats: Volpe, Verdugo

Value Bats: Wells, LeMahieu

I also like the Phillies vs. Spencer Howard, Guardians vs. Ryan Feltner (keep in mind, he’s actually been better at home this season than away from Coors), and Mariners lefties vs. Hunter Brown.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Cheers to a healthy and happy holiday weekend.  I’m going to focused on the 9-game slate of MLB DFS starting at 1 pm EST today.  It’s a fun-looking slate that is void of top-end pitching.  The most expensive pitcher on this slate is just $9.3k on DK.  That will mean we should have plenty of cash lying around for whatever bats we’ll want to use. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Brady Singer ($9.3k on DK) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

This Rays team is not the same Rays teams of years past.  Sitting at 2 games under.500, it’s going to be a struggle for them.  Mainstays like Randy Arozarena and  Brandon Lowe are off to horrific starts this season and that has contributed to the very slow start for the Rays.  Over the last week, this Rays team has scored just 15 runs while striking out at a decent 26% clip.  Until they right the ship, we’ll want to attack them with pitching. 

We’ll do so today with a pitcher that is pitching lights out this season.  Singer is so far 4-2 this season with an ERA of just 2.70.  His FIP and xFIP both tell us that this isn’t a fluke, and that he’s actually pitching well.  His K/9 is the highest of his career and his BB/9 is near the lowest number he’s ever put up.  He’s averaged 19 DK points this season and I don’t see a reason why he shouldn’t get that and more this afternoon.

Reese Olson ($7.1k on DK) vs. Toronto Blue Jays

This is a Blue Jays team that can be had.  Although they’ve had some games this week where they’ve put up big numbers, they are an average lineup when you look past guys like Vlad Guerrero and Bo Bichette.  I think that Reese Olson continues with this strong pitching today in this matchup.  If we take out his last start he left early, he’s been dominant. 

He has just one start this season where he’s given up more than 2 ER.  While he isn’t a high strikeout pitcher, at his price we’re only looking for someone that can get 5-6 K’s and go around 6-7 innings.  If we look at what he’s done this season, he 100% can do that again today in this matchup. 

The only other pitcher that I have any interest in will be Reynaldo Lopezvs. Pittsburgh Pirates. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Kansas City Royals vs. Aaron Civale

You have to respect what the Royals are doing this season.  At 33-19, they are one of just 6 teams who have crossed the 30-win total this season.  They are hitting well, pitching well, and fielding well.  They should continue to play well today in a great matchup vs. a struggling pitcher in Aaron Civale.  Civale is coming off a start that saw him walk 4 hitters and give up 4 ER in just 5 innings of work.  He’s a low strikeout pitcher that is giving up a ton of hard contact. 

Civale has given up 7 barrels over his last 24 innings and hasn’t given up less than 47 hard-hit rate in any of his May starts.  I fully expect him to continue with his struggles this afternoon.  We’ll want to prioritize lefties here as his numbers against them are horrid.  That doesn’t mean we skip over Bobby Witt Jr though as he will always be in play. 

Core Bats: Bobby Witt Jr, Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey

Secondary Bats: Sal Perez, Nelson Velazquez

Value Bats: Kyle Isbel, MJ Melendez

Boston Red Sox vs. Colin Rea

Colin Rea is coming into this one on the heels of his worst start of the year.  In his last outing against the Astros, he went just 4 innings and gave up 5 ER.  It wasn’t an anomaly as this was his third straight start giving up at least 3 ER.  He’s been wildly inconsistent this season as he’s thrown a couple of gems, but more often than not he’s struggled.  He’s well on his way to setting a career-high in barrels allowed and his barrel % is also the highest of his career. 

Based on pitch type and also handedness, this is a bad matchup for Rea.  He really struggles against lefties as they have a .491 slugging % and .366 wOBA against him.  Those are significantly worse than what righties are doing against him.  He’s set to face a lineup today that should have at least 5 lefties in it. 

Core Bats: Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran

Secondary Bats: Tyler O’Neill, Connor Wong

Value Bats: Wilyer Abreu, Dominic Smith, David Hamilton

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Orioles vs.Erick Fedde, Tigers vs. Jose Berrios, and Astros vs. JP Sears. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

TGIF!  It’s Friday and that means we’ll have a big slate.  Tonight, we’ll have an 11-game slate of MLB DFS. This slate brings us the potential NL ROY/Cy Young favorite in Shota Imanaga.  It also brings us the hottest team in the league heading to Coors Field where they are certain to put up a big number.  This slate will have a little bit of everything for us. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Shota Imanaga ($11k on DK) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

While the Cardinals are starting to play a little bit better, they’re still an aging team with many flaws.  It’s taken an 8-2 run over the last 10 to get to 3 games under .500.  They are still a team that we should be attacking, and we’ll attack them with a pitcher who has been outstanding in his rookie season.  The Cubs rookie has been dealing, as evidenced by his .84 ERA.  While that isn’t sustainable, he does still have a fairly low xFIP at 3.14.  He’s due for some minor regression, but I doubt it comes tonight. 

He’s now made 9 starts at the Major League level and has only given up runs in 3 of the games.  He hasn’t had the easiest of schedules either as he’s shut down teams like the Braves, Padres, Red Sox, and Dodgers.  It’s baseball and there’s always a ton of variance, but this matchup doesn’t scare me off Imanaga.  Lock and load as your SP1.

Christopher Sanchez ($7.2k on DK) vs. Colorado Rockies

Yes, using a pitcher in Coor’s isn’t for the faint of heart.  It’s as tough of a place to pitch in as there is.  That said, he’s cheap and pitching well.  Christopher Sanchez is known as a groundball pitcher and when I opt to use a pitcher in Coors, that’s the profile I look for.  His GB rate over the last month is a staggering 56%, compared to just a 17% FB rate.  As long as he can continue to keep the ball on the ground, he should be able to pay off his salary tonight, providing us much-needed relief after spending up for Imanaga. 

Sanchez has averaged nearly 15k points this season and if he can get up to that number again tonight, 2x will be nice.  If he can manage to get into the 20s like he’s done in 2 of his last 3 outings, that will be even sweeter for us.  It’s not out of the question, especially against a team that blew 2 extra inning leads yesterday and is more than likely feeling down. 

Other pitchers that will be in my pool today will be Justin Verlander (very cheap) vs. Oakland Athletics and Zac Gallen vs. Miami Marlins. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

I’m not going to write up the Phillies as one of my top stacks today.  They are far and away in the best spot of any team tonight.  They are facing a pitcher that has an ERA of 5.4 over the last month and they are in Coors.   You don’t need me to tell you they are in play.  They are the obvious play of the day.  I’ll give you some other options in the event you want to be different.  I want to be different. 

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Braxton Garrett

Braxton Garrett has only thrown 2 games so far this season, and they’ve been terrible.  He’s given up 11 ER across his 2 outings, with one coming against my lowly New York Mets.  In just the 2 outings, he’s allowed a massive 43% hard-hit rate and has allowed 15 base runners across the 9 innings of work.  It’s going to be some tough sledding for him tonight as he’s facing off against a team that has crushed lefties this season. 

Against lefties, the Dbacks have a .810 OPS and a .353 wOBA.  They’ve been great and face a very beatable lefties.  I’m going to favor the righties here as Garrett has historically struggled vs. righties as they have a .337 wOBA vs. him throughout his career.

Core Bats: Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel

Secondary Bats: Corbin Carroll

Value Bats: Blaze Alexander, Randal Grichuk, Gabriel Moreno

Houston Astros vs. Ross Stripling

Houston, we have a problem.  That’s what it is going to be going through the minds of the A’s tonight.  After struggling to start the season, the Astros are finally playing some better baseball, winning 7 of their last 10 games.  A lot of this had been due to the stellar play of their 2 lefties in Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker.  Both of them have been tremendous of late and get a phenomenal matchup today vs. Ross Stripling. 

Stripling just isn’t a very good pitcher.  He’s now started 10 games this season and has only allowed less than 3 ER 3 times.  He’s allowed 4 or more runs in 4 of the starts.  Stripling is someone that we can always count on to give up some runs.  Tonight will be no different.  He just doesn’t miss enough bats to have any level of success anymore.  I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits here as he’s pretty terrible vs. both sides of the plate. 

Core Bats: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve

Secondary Bats: Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena

Value Bats: Jake Meyers, Jon Singleton

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Orioles vs. Chris Flexen, Cubs vs. Miles Mikolas, and Angels vs. Logan Allen.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

It’s Hump Day, and for a change, we actually have one large slate today.  We’re blessed with a 10-game slate of MLB DFS tonight.  The sites smarted up and included the 6:40 games for us.  Tonight’s slate is a bit different than last night in that it includes so ace-level pitching.  We won’t need to look for scraps.  It also has some league-leading offenses that are in prime spots.  It’s going to be tough to fade a team like the Dodgers tonight. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Tyler Glasnow ($10.6k on DK) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

It’s going to be a pretty easy decision tonight to use Tyler Glasnow as my SP1.  Although the Diamondbacks aren’t a high strikeout team against righties, Glasnow is a pitcher where I don’t look too much into the other team’s strikeout creds.  He is a pitcher that will get his strikeouts, regardless of the opponent.  He’s coming into this game with 6 consecutive games having at least 8 K’s.  His K/9 on the season is sitting close to 12. 

That’s down a bit from years past but what is also down from year’s past is his BB/9. He’s had more control this season which has also meant he’s been able to go a little deeper into games.  Up until his last start, he had gone 4 consecutive starts going at least 6.  On the year, he’s gone at least 6 in all but 3 starts.  I’m locking him in as my SP1 tonight. 

Jared Jones ($9.6k on DK) vs. San Francisco Giants

Tonight’s going to be a night where I end up paying up for both pitchers and look for value with my bats.  I’m not a fan of the middle and low tiers.  That brings me to the Jared Jones.  Boy this Pirates franchise is set with the top of their rotation for years to come.  Between Jones and Paul Skenes, the Pirates have 2 of the most dynamic young pitchers in the game.  This is going to be the second time that Jones will be facing the Giants this season. 

In his first outing, he had just 3 K’s.  That should change tonight.  This is going to be the second time he’s faced a team a second time this season.  In his first outing vs. the Cubs, he k’d only 4 but he made adjustments and ended up K’ing 7 Cubs in his next outing.  I think he does something similar tonight vs. an average Giants lineup. 

Other pitchers that will be in my pool today will be Michael King vs. Cincinnati, Jesus Luzardo vs. Milwaukee, and Freddy Peralta vs. Miami. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ryne Nelson

With every slate, I try my hardest to find a stack other than the Dodgers.  This is nothing against the Dodgers, it’s actually a complement.  They are just always in such a good spot that I normally want to get different.  It’s going to be hard tonight with how good of a spot they are in.  Ryne Nelson is really struggling right now.  Over his last 3 starts, he’s given up 15 ER.  He’s doing just about everything wrong. 

Hitters have a 40% hard-hit rate vs. him, he has a WHIP of 2.27, and he’s also given up 5 barrels in those 3 starts.  The only thing that he’s done well is the ability to keep the ball down.  Hitters have just a 26% FB rate vs. him.  If there’s a lineup that overcome his groundball tendencies, it’s the Dodgers. 

Core Bats: Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts (listed in order of preference)

Secondary Bats: Will Smith, Teoscar Hernandez

Value Bats: Jason Heyward, Kike Hernandez

Texas Rangers vs. Taijuan Walker

Even though they’re playing the Phillies, we shouldn’t sleep on the Rangers today.  Taijuan Walker hasn’t looked overly sharp since making his season debut.  In just 4 starts, he’s managed to allow a slate high 12 barrels over the last month.  In the 22 innings he’s worked this season, he’s also allowed 5 homers and a 54% flyball rate.  Those are just really bad numbers and he really hasn’t faced much in the way offense.  He faced some below average offenses. 

Todays’ the first time he’s going to really face a solid offense and that may mean the floodgates open against him.  Another thing working in our favor here is that it’s going to be warm at game time in Philly and the wind is going to be blowing out to center.  Things could get ugly quickly for Walker today. 

Core Bats: Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe, Jonah Heim, Evan Carter

Secondary Bats: Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia

Value Bats: Josh Smith, Travis Jankowski

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Phillies vs. Dane Dunning, A’s vs. Austin Gomber, White Sox vs. Chris Bassitt, and Rays vs. Brayan Bello

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Happy Tuesday!  We have ourselves a nice-sized 8-game slate of MLB DFS tonight.  This slate is mostly void of our normal top-end pitching.  The most expensive pitcher on this slate is just $9.5k.  That said, we do still have some solid pitching in solid spots tonight.  With no real aces on this slate, it also will mean that we’ll have some very average to below average pitching as well.  That will mean we’ll have plenty of spots for offense. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Clarke Schmidt ($8.4k on DK) vs. Seattle Mariners

Clarke Schmidt is having a breakout season.  After getting mixed results last season in his first full season as a starter, we’re seeing an evolution of the 16^th pick of the 2017 draft.  Through 9 starts, Schmidt has an impressive 2.49 ERA and an xFIP of 3.52.  Both numbers are career-best numbers for the Yankees right-hander. Also, a career-best number is his K/9 that’s sitting 9.77.  He has a nearly 4:1 K:BB number this season which would also be a career-best number. 

Over the last month, Schmidt has a 27% K rate which is the third-best number of anyone on the hill tonight.  While the strikeouts for the Mariners have started to come down a bit, they were still K’d 6 times by a low strikeout pitcher in Marcus Stroman.  Schmidt should be able to replicate that and more tonight. 

Alec Marsh ($7.5k on DK) vs. Detroit Tigers

Alec Marsh has put together a string of really solid outings.  Over his last 4 starts, he’s allowed just 2 ER.  In 3 of those 4 starts, Marsh has struck out at least 6 hitters.  His K/9 on the year is up to 7.54.  For a pitcher that is just $7.5k tonight, I’ll take that number every single day.  He’ll be facing off against a Tigers team that has very mediocre numbers vs. righties this season. 

The Tigers have a 24% K rate vs. righties and also a sub .700 OPS.  Their ISO is also .150 which is a number that I use as a landmark to determine whether a team has power vs. a pitcher or not.  They have limited power based on the numbers.  This is a good matchup for a pitcher that is pitching lights out right now. 

Other pitchers that will be in my pool today will be Garrett Crochet vs. Toronto and Yusei Kikuchi vs. Chicago. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Baltimore Orioles vs. Lancy Lynn

Lance Lynn’s best days are far behind as we’re seeing a pitcher who is a shell of his former self.  Up until last season, Lynn was a pitcher who historically had an ERA that would hover in low to mid 3.00 range and someone who had a BB/9 less than.  All of that changed last season as Father Time caught up to the big fellow.  This season has been no different for Lynn as he’s struggled.  After having an OK April, he appears to have hit a wall in May as he’s allowed at least 4 ER in each of his 3 starts this month. 

He’s struggling mightily with his command as his first strike % is just 54% and he’s also allowing a 4.74 BB/9.  He’s going to struggle tonight against a really strong offense in the Orioles.  If they can be patient, they’ll do a number on Lynn and the Cardinals bullpen.  The only thing that may stop the O’s is some potential rain later in the Lou.  Keep an eye out for this one.  If it gets PPD, I’ll pivot to the Dodgers.

Core Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander

Secondary Bats: Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser

Value Bats: Jorge Matteo, Austin Hayes

Houston Astros vs. Griffin Canning

Oh Griffin Canning I feel bad for you tonight.  You’ve put together a nice string of starts over the past month, haven’t you?  That changes tonight.  Canning has just one start this season this season where he had an xFIP under 4.  Ironically, that was his worst start of the season.  He’s been skating by thanks to a BABIP of just .225.  He’s been getting shelled game in and game out, but the balls just haven’t been landing.  He’s given up 7 barrels over the last month. 

At some point, his luck is going to run out.  With how well the Astros have been hitting, that should happen tonight.  The Astros have been a top 5 offense over the last week and they line up extremely well with Canning.  Canning is mostly a FB and SL pitcher.  Those are both pitches that this team excels against. 

Core Bats: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve

Secondary Bats: Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena

Value Bats: Jake Meyers, Joey Loperfido, Jon Singelton

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Rockies vs. Aaron Brooks, Angels vs. Christian Javier

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

It’s Saturday and that means we’ll have a full day of baseball.  I’ll be focused on the 7-game slate of MLB DFS starting at 7 pm EST.  The best part of playing MLB DFS is that every day is a new day.  We’ll need to forget about last night’s major disappointment handed down to us by the Toronto Blue Jays.  In a marvelous matchup, they were nearly no-hit.  Tonight, we’ll have some interesting matchups to look at.  We should be able to afford most bats as the most expensive pitcher on this slate is just $9.4k. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Seth Lugo ($9k on DK) vs. Oakland Athletics

Is it too early to start talking about Seth Lugo being a legit Cy Young candidate?  All he has done this season is mow down hitters.  Through 9 starts, Lugo has an ERA of 1.66 and a K/9 of 7.24.  Impressively, his walks are super low at just 1.81 per 9 innings.  Overall, he’s having one of the finest seasons of his career.  While the A’s have played much better than expected this season, they are still a below-average lineup and one that Seth Lugo should be able to dominate. 

At $9k, we’re going to be getting a pitcher who faces a team that is striking out 26% of the time against righties and has just .671 OPS.  This is a game where Lugo should be able to continue his impressive start to the season.  Expect him to be chalky, but this may be chalk we need to eat to get to the top of the leaderboards.

Jack Flaherty ($8.9k on DK) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Is Jack Flaherty finally putting it all together at age 28?  Flaherty has all the talent in the world but has struggled with his consistency at the Major League level.  One of his biggest issues throughout his career has been walks.  Over the last 2 seasons, Flaherty has had BB/9 of 5.50 and 4.12.  This season?  Well, this season it’s sitting at just 1.11.  This has allowed him to go a little bit deeper into games and in turn, strike out more hitters. 

His K/9 is all the way up to 11.65, by far the highest of his up-and-down career.  He’ll look to keep the good times rolling against what has mostly been a disappointing season for the Diamondbacks.  Last year’s NL Champs are just 21-24 and have been wildly inconsistent at the plate.  I can see Flaherty having another dominant outing here. 

Other pitchers that will be in my pool today will be Zac Gallen vs. Detroit and Walker Buehler vs. the Reds.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Boston Red Sox vs. Miles Mikolas

Miles Mikolas is having, statistically speaking, the worst year of his career.  His ERA is the highest it has been since all the way back in 2014 with the Texas Rangers.  His HR/9 are the highest they have ever been as is his hard-hit rate.  He’s allowing a hard-hit rate of over 43% this season.  That is an astronomical number of hard hits and something we really need to attack.  Over the last month, he’s allowed 11 barrels in just 26 innings of work.  That’s almost 1 every other inning. 

I’m going to continue to attack him whenever I can.  Most of the time, it’s working as he’s allowed 3 ER or more in 5 of his last 6 starts.  With Mikolas, we want to attack him with both sides of the plate.  Righty or lefty, they each have a slugging % over .500 vs. him this season. 

Core Bats: Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Rafael Devers

Secondary Bats: Connor Wong, Tyler O’Neill

Value Bats: Dom Smith, Garrett Cooper, Vaughn Grissom

Kansas City Royals vs. Ross Stripling

The Royals bats have been mostly quiet of late, but that all changes tonight in a great matchup vs. Ross Stripling.  I’ve never been a huge fan of Stripling and maybe that’s swaying my head tonight, but this is a game the Royals should be able to dominate in.  Stripling does nothing special and he does a lot that makes us want to stack against him.  If he gives up an above average amount of fly balls at 40% and he also gives up an above average amount of hard-hits at nearly 36%. 

If we look a bit deeper, he’s also giving up a contact rate over 82%.  So that means there are going to be a lot hard-hit fly balls I play.  Good things happen with that. 

Core Bats: Sal Perez, Bobby Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino

Secondary Bats: Michael Massey

Value Bats: Nelson Velazquez, Hunter Renfroe, Kyle Isbel

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Rangers vs. Patrick Sandoval, Padres vs. Bryce Elder, and Dodgers vs. Graham Ashcraft.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

TGIF!  We made it to Friday.  In a few hours, we’ll get to sit back and count the hours left we have until the new work week starts.  Until that happens though, I have you covered for tonight’s massive 13-game slate of MLB DFS.  This is going to be a tricky slate as the top pitchers aren’t in the best of matchups.  The pitchers with the highest K rates are facing off against teams that don’t K much.  However, we do have some clear-cut stacks to play around with. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Tarik Skubal ($10k on DK) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

I don’t love the matchup, but I do love the pitcher.  Tarik Skubal has been nothing short of masterful this season.  On the year, he’s averaging a shade of 25 DK points per game.  His ERA is at a career low of 2.02 and his xFIP of 2.53 indicates that he’s not getting lucky to have such a low ERA.  He’s pitching as expected.  After reaching 11 K/9 in 2023, he’s followed that up with another solid K season with a K/9 of 11.02 through his first 8 starts.  His walks are also down as they are 1.47 BB/9, also a career-best number.  Nearly every metric is at or near a career-best level. 

My only concern here is that the Diamondbacks do not strike out much vs. lefties as they K only 18% of the time vs. them.  Skubal is a different animal though and I can see him mowing down some Dbacks tonight.  He’s the cheapest he’s been in a month.  I’m locking him in as my SP1 tonight.

Christian Scott ($8.4k on DK) vs. Miami Marlins

I’m going to go a bit cheaper for my SP2 tonight and that’s going to be Mets prospect Christian Scott.  Scott has only made 2 starts so far in the Show, but they’ve both been solid.  While he gave up 3 ER against the Braves, he also struck out 8 of them.  That was on the heels of a 6 K performance against the Rays.  The kid has legit stuff and if he can K 8 Braves, it will be interesting to see what he can do against a far inferior team in the Marlins. 

Scott has been able to do a great job in limiting contact.  Hitters have just a 69% contact rate against him and he also has an impressive 17% swinging strike rate.  That trails just Jesus Luzardo of tonight’s pitchers.  Look for him to continue with his impressive start to his hopefully long and successful career. 

Other pitchers that will be in my pool today will be Nestor Cortes vs. the White Sox, Cole Ragans vs. Oakland, and Brayan Bello vs. St. Louis. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Mike Clevinger

Only 2 teams in baseball currently have 30+ wins.  They happen to be the 2 teams I loathe the most the Yankees and Phillies.  While I hate it, it’s hard to argue that they aren’t 2 of the best teams in baseball.  Both lineups are strong and both have solid pitching.  I’m going to target that strong lineup the Yankees have today as they get a strong matchup vs. Mike Clevinger. 

Thanks to signing late, he’s only made 2 starts so far.  One of those starts was pretty poor and the other wasn’t bad.  Overall though, he’s getting hit extremely hard so far this season as hitters have a 40% hard-hit vs. him so far.  He’s also letting way too many runners on base so far as he has a 2.1 WHIP.  If the Yankees can be patient tonight, they should smash. 

Core Bats: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto (if you can only afford one, Soto is my preference)

Secondary Bats: Alex Verdugo, Austin Wells, Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tyler Alexander

This may the first time this season I’m playing the Toronto Blue Jays.  As I dig into the numbers, this is a really strong matchup on paper.  Tyler Alexander is a below-average pitcher.  Through his first 8 outings, 5 of which have been starts, Alexander owns a 5.45 ERA and an xFIP nearing 4.75.  While he can occasionally throw together a solid start or 2, he’s also known to throw some duds.  He’s coming off his worst start of the year, a game that saw him give up 6 ER to the above-mentioned Yankees. 

This seems to be a start that could go south just like his last one.  He’s someone that we can count on to give up some hard contact as hitters have a 40% hard-hit rate vs. him this year.  He’s only had one start without giving up a barrel and gave up a whopping 6 vs. the Yankees.  That’s more than some pitchers will give up in a year.  From a pitch standpoint, the Blue Jays lineup well with him.  He mostly throws a cutter and although it’s a small sample size, there are a handful of Blue Jays that crush this pitch from lefties. 

Core Bats: Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero, Davis Schneider

Secondary Bats: Danny Jensen, Justin Turner, George Springer

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Braves vs. Matt Waldron, Rangers vs. Tyler Anderson, and Angels vs. Andrew Heaney

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Happy Hump Day!  We’re halfway through the week.  Tonight, I’ll be focused on the 7-game slate of MLB DFS that starts at 7 PM EST.  This is a slate that truly lacks an ace.  The pitcher with the highest K rate gets a nasty matchup against one of the hottest offenses in the game in the Yankees.  This slate does however give us plenty of options for offense. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Tanner Houck ($9.1k on DK) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

I said pitching was bad and I meant it.  Nothing against Tanner Houck as he’s pitched fairly well this season, but he’s not an ace and when he’s one of the top pitchers on the slate, it says something about the slate.  Overall, Houck has been really good this season.  Over the last month, Houck owns a 2.34 ERA and a 2.81 xFIP.  He also owns a 23% K rate which is respectable. 

He’ll be facing a Rays team that for the most part, has been disappointing this season.  Against righties, they have just a .675 OPS and a .128 ISO.  They are beatable, and they should be beaten by Tanner Houck tonight.  I expect Houck to be one of the more popular pitchers tonight. 

Charlie Morton ($8.4k on DK) vs. Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have been struggling offensively over the last week and until they right the ship, they’re a team that we should be attacking with pitchers.  Over the last week, they’ve scored just 21 runs and have a 28% K rate.  Against righties this season, they’ve also struggled as they have a .678 OPS and a .144 ISO.  We’ll attack them with the veteran righty, Charlie Morton. 

The crafty 40-year-old continues to get hitters out.  His ERA on the year sits at just 3.14 and his xFIP isn’t much higher.  The one knock on him is that his K/9 is down about 2 this season compared to the last couple of years.  At $8.4k though we don’t’ really need a pitcher with a 30% K rate.  As long as he can continue to get his 5-7 K’s tonight, he’ll more than pay off his salary. 

Other pitchers who will be in my pool today will be Taj Bradley vs. Boston, Jon Gray vs. Cleveland, and Pablo Lopez vs. the Yankees.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Texas Rangers vs. Carlos Carrasco

The last few years have been a struggle for Carlos Carrasco.  He’s had an ERA over 5 in 3 of the last 4 seasons, with 2 of those seasons being over 6.00.  At 37, we can’t expect him to all of a sudden turn it around as Father Time just isn’t on his side anymore.  Things have gotten even worse for him over the last few games as he’s given up at least 5 runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. 

He’s been especially susceptible to the long ball over the last month as he’s given up 7 of them.  Against a strong Rangers lineup, he’s almost certain to give up even more homers tonight.  I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits here as Carrasco has really struggled against both sides of the plate this season. 

Core Bats: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe

Secondary Bats: Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim

Value Bats: Ezequial Duran, Leody Taveras

Oakland Athletics vs. Framber Valdez

I think this is a sneaky spot for the A’s tonight.  I’ve never been a huge fan of Framber Valdez and he’s showing little this season to change my mind.  While the ERA is very respectable this season at 3.64, the advance metrics for him are not.  Over the last month, Valdez has been getting hit extremely hard.  His hard-hit rate over the last month is nearly 44%.  No one on this slate is remotely close to that. 

Hitters have an average exit velocity of 94 MPH against him.  That’s also an extremely high number.  While the contact rate against him is only 75%, when hitters make contact against him they are crushing him.  Against a surprisingly competent lineup in the A’s, that could spell trouble for him.  I’m going to favor the righties here as they hit for more power against Valdez.

Core Bats: Brent Rooker, Zack Gelof

Secondary Bats: Esteury Ruiz

Value Bats: Abraham Toro, Shea Langeliers, Max Schuemann

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Astros vs. Aaron Brooks, Braves vs. Javiar Assad, and Angels vs. Lance Lynn.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

It’s Tuesday and that means we’ll have one really big slate.  Tonight, we’ll have a massive 11-game slate of MLB DFS to work with.  This is a fun-looking slate that has a mix of both really strong pitching and really solid spots for bats.   It also brings us 2 top pitchers in really strong spots.  As is the norm, we’ll need to decide to start both or start 1. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Dylan Cease ($11k on DK) vs. Colorado Rockies

I went back and forth with who I wanted to spend up with.  Would it be Sonny Gray vs. the Angels or Dylan Cease vs. the Rockies?  I’m siding with Dylan Cease as the matchup is a little bit better.  The Rockies are being taken out of Coors and they have also struggled mightily vs. righties this season.  Against righties in 2024, the Rockies have a 27% K rate and just a .129 ISO.  They do little damage against them and that’s something we want to attack. 

Tonight, we’ll get to attack them with a pitcher that has returned to form after a disappointing 2023 season.  Cease has been brilliant this season.  His strikeouts have ticked up a bit but more importantly, his control is back.  His BB/9 is down to its lowest level of his career.  His HR/9 is also at the lowest level of his career.  He’s coming off a 12 K performance against the Cubs and I could see him approaching a similar performance in a great matchup. 

Chris Paddack ($6.5k on DK) vs. New York Yankees

I won’t blame you if you can’t stomach using Paddack against the Yankees.  The Yankees are a lineup that is playing really well right now.  They also have really strong numbers on the year vs. righties.  With all that said though, it’s rare that we can get the strikeout upside of a pitcher at this price point.  Paddack has multiple games this season with double-digit strikeouts.  He’s also given up 2 or fewer runs in all but 2 starts this season. 

That includes starts against the Dodgers and Brewers.  Can he get shelled here?  Absolutely.  I wouldn’t touch him in Cash games but he’ll make a great GPP pivot.  His K rate for the year is 22%.  Between his price point and his K upside, I’m struggling to find a way to not play him tonight or at least keep him in my player pool. 

Other pitchers that will be in my pool today will be Sonny Gray vs. the Angels, Hunter Green vs. Arizona, and Chris Sale vs. the Cubs.  

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Cleveland Guardians vs. Jack Leiter

Jack Leiter has now made 2 starts at the big league level.  Both were “disasters”.  In a combined 8 innings of work, Leiter has now given up 11 ER.  It’s been a struggle so far for the #2 overall pick in the 2021 MLB draft.  So far, and albeit it’s a very small sample size, his stuff has not played well in the Majors.  He’s giving up a ton of contact at nearly 80% and he’s rarely striking out guys at just a 14% clip.  The matchup today is going to be tough for him as the Guardians are a stingy lineup. 

They rarely strike out as they have just a 19% K rate against righties this season.  It’s going to be a struggle for him today to bounce back and perform like the top draft pick that he is.  I’m going to be concerned about splits here as both sides are crushing him. 

Core Bats: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor,

Secondary Bats: Will Brennan, Andres Gimenez

Value Bats: Estevan Florial, Brayan Rocchio

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Quinn Priester

Quinn Priester has now made 4 starts this season with only one being a solid start.  From an xFIP standpoint, his last 2 starts have been his worst.  In both of those games, Priester had an xFIP over 5.50.  While the number of walks hasn’t been astronomical, he’s been struggling big-time with his command and getting behind way too many hitters.  His first strike % is just 50.50% over the last month.  That means nearly 50% of hitters are starting the count 1-0, putting the count in their favor.  That’s not ideal and if he continues to get behind on that many hitters, he’s going to struggle. 

His K rate is also extremely low as he’s k’d just 12.60% of the hitters over the last month.  Against a solid lineup like that Brewers, there are just too many red flags for him and it’s going to be a tough go for him.  I’m going to prioritize the lefties here.  Lefties have a .372 wOBA vs. him this year and a .364 OBP.  Both are significantly higher than what righties have against him.

Core Bats: Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, Jake Bauers

Secondary Bats: William Contreras, Rhys Hoskins

Value Bats: Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Cardinals vs. Reid Detmers, Braves vs. Jameson Taillon, and Astros vs. JP Sears

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

We made it y’all.  It’s finally Saturday and that means we’ll have a couple of different slates of MLB DFS to navigate through.  Today, I’ll be focused on the main slate starting at 7:00 PM EST.  This slate brings us the return of one of the top strikeout pitchers in the game.  We’ll also still have a Coors game, although there may be some weather issues there. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Freddy Peralta ($10.4k on DK) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

After serving his 5-game suspension, Freddy Peralta returns tonight to face off against NL Central rival St. Louis Cardinals.  These franchises are headed in very different directions.  The Brewers are good and the Cardinals, well they are not.  On the year, the Cardinals have really struggled and they’ve really struggled vs. righties.  They own a nearly 25% K rate vs. them and they’ve also hit for little power with a .125 ISO. 

Their best hitter is out indefinitely thanks to incompetent coaching and their vets are really struggling.  This will all set up really well for one of the top strikeout pitchers in the game.  This matchup for Peralta screams ceiling.  He’s a high-strikeout pitcher who’s facing a high-strikeout team.  I can see Peralta going his normal 6 innings of work, with 8 K’s.  If that happens, he’ll more than pay off his high salary. 

Triston McKenzie ($8.7k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

After mostly struggling in 2023, it appears that Triston McKenzie has turned the corner and pitching like the stud we saw in 2022.  Through 7 starts, McKenzie owns a 3.97 ERA and has allowed just a .219 average on the year.  Between his low contact rate and his low hard-hit rate, McKenzie has been doing a solid job of limiting the amount of hard-hit balls put into play.  The one knock that I have on him so far this season is that he’s getting behind on hitters from the start. 

His 54% first strike % is far below the majority of the pitchers on this slate.  If he can get that number up, he’ll be able to go longer into games and be a little more successful.  This is a great matchup for him tonight vs. a bad White Sox team.  He hasn’t given up more than 2 ER since all the way back in early April.  That shouldn’t change tonight in this cake matchup for him.

Other pitchers that will be in my pool today will be Nick Lodolo vs. San Fran, Cole Ragans vs. Los Angeles, and Bryce Miller vs. Oakland. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Cincinnati Reds vs. Mason Black

Mason Black’s first Major League start did not go as planned.  He gave up 5 ER in just 4 innings of work and had a WHIP of way more than 2.  He struggled in just about every aspect of the game.  Lots of hard-hit balls, lots of fly balls, and lots of contact.  In order to be successful in the bigs, he’s going to need to adjust and get better.  With a matchup against the Reds today, I just don’t see it happening anytime soon. 

Although the Reds have mostly struggled vs. righties this season, this is a beatable righty and a matchup they should do well in.  It’s only one start, but lefties brutalized Black in his debut.  They had a .778 slugging % in the game and a wOBA of .514. 

Core Bats: Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Jonathan India

Secondary Bats: Jeimer Candelario, T.J. Friedl

Value Bats: Mike Ford, Will Benson

Cleveland Guardians vs. Mike Clevinger

Like Mason Black, Mike Clevinger has just one start under his belt this season and it too could not have been any worse.  Clevinger game up 3 ER in just his 2 innings of work.  Hitters had a 50% hard-hit rate vs. him and they also had a 95% contact rate.  This shouldn’t have come as a surprise as Clevinger wasn’t all that great last season either as he had an xFIP over 5.  Until he shows otherwise, I’m going to pick on him and the White Sox bullpen. 

With Clevinger, we want to pick on him with lefties as they have historically had better numbers vs. him than righties.  The good news for us is that the Guardians have some solid lefty hitters.

Core Bats: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez

Value Bats: Bo Naylor, Will Brennan, Estevan Florial

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Rangers vs. Ryan Feltner, Rockies vs. Andrew Heaney, and Dodgers vs. Matt Waldron

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!