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MLB DFS

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.21

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.21

It was quite the day in the Starting Rotation on Thursday! We helped a member with a takedown and really nailed the majority of the picks. Even though Kevin Gausman wasn’t anything special, he still scored 18 DK. The only pitcher that scored under 16 was Brandon Woodruff and we’ll take that every night. Tonight is a good deal trickier but we do have a ton of options to pick from for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.21.

Cash Game Options

Aaron Nola

He was covered in Picks and Pivots today, so you can read up on him right here.

Max Fried

Pitch Data – FB – 9th SL – 13th CB – 10th

This would not normally be a cash pick but the options are fairly limited tonight. Fried draws a tough matchup for a lefty pitcher against the Phillies but he has come through against them once already for 23.7 DK points. He’s upped the swinging strike rate to 12.9% and the overall K rate is at 25.4%. Hitters simply have not gotten the ball in the air or hit it hard at 21.1% and 32.4%, respectively.

Philly should throw out seven RHH against Fried but that actually might help the K upside just a bit. He only whiffs LHH at a 9.1% rate compared to 29.5% to the right side. Fried is one of the better young pitchers in the league and I’ll ride with the talent tonight.

*Note* Bryce Harper is not in the lineup tonight, which certainly doesn’t hurt Fried at all.

Andrew Heaney

Pitch Data – FB – 8th SL – 15th CH – 30th

This is another one that I might not normally love for cash, but it’s always a slate by slate kind of deal. The A’s absolutely have some power vs LHP and that’s a concern. They also lead the league in K rate to LHP at 29.1%. In the first start of the season, Heaney racked up 19.3 DK vs these A’s on just 64 pitches. His last start he threw 101 against the Dodgers, a much better offense.

If Heaney uses that changeup a little more often, it could really give the A’s fits. The swinging strike rate is more than respectable at 12.4%, as is the 24.5% K rate overall. We don’t love an 8.8% walk rate but with Oakland leading the league in strikeouts to LHP, the good should more than outweigh the bad in this spot.

GPP Options

Chad Kuhl

Just like Nola, he’s been covered today. I think on DK, he’s very close to a cash option at his price especially with the options behind Nola not the prototypical picks.

Walker Buehler

Pitch Data – FB – 5th SL – 5th CT – 17th CB – 27th

Buehler is likely the most talented pitcher on the slate overall but there’s no way getting around it – he’s bee awful this year. In four starts, he’s yet to cross 18 DK points and the 5.43 xFIP supports the 5.21 ERA. The K rate is down to 21.3% and the walk rate has skyrocketed to 11.3%. Also, the HR/9 is a massive 2.37 right now and that’s not like Buehler at all.

Eventually, he’s going to snap out of this funk and we want to be on the first big game. His price hasn’t come down at all so it’s not like he’s easy to play. Perhaps the Rockies on the road can bring that first massive game. They rank 20th or worse in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ on the road to RHP. Additionally, the 25.5% K rate should favor Buehler. It’s a matter of time before he turns things around.

Adrian Houser

Pitch Data – FB – 29th SL – 12th CH – 23rd

Houser is a touch overpriced on DK but we can’t deny the spot for him. The pitch count doesn’t appear to be a concern with 87, 77 and 86 in the past three and he’s scored 14.9 DK against these Pirates once already on 68 pitches. Pittsburgh is approaching 26% in K rate and are bottom five across the board in everything we look at. There’s not much else to write about past the Pirates being the second-worst team to the fastball and Houser uses that pitch 65% of the time.

Lance McCullers

Pitch Data – FB – 11th CB – 17th CH – 9th

I always have a soft spot for McCullers and the pitch data is a little bit better than I thought it might be. The change is the pitch he uses the least, so that helps. We may not love the 45.3% hard hit rate but the 18.9% fly ball rate is beyond excellent. That ranks third among starters to this point.

McCullers doesn’t have an impressive ERA at 5.47 but the 3.95 xFIP suggests that positive regression is on the way. San Diego absolutely has a good offense and doesn’t strike out that much at 21%. The BABIP to RHH is pretty high at .323 so it should be expected to come down as we go. While this isn’t the greatest spot McCullers will ever get, he should be low-owned and he has the ability to shut down any team in the majors on any given night.

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

5 years ago 0 comments

FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown For 8.21

Uriah Wesson 5 years ago

written by Uriah Wesson

Happy Friday folks! Fanduel has chosen to give us a giant 12 game slate this evening. The good news is we have tons of bats to choose from which will keep ownership reasonable in most cases. The bad news? There is a substantial lack of quality pitching where we have Nola at 10.7K all the way up top with Max Fried the next highest at 9.4K. Not an issue for us on FanDuel but on Draftkings you will have to make your choice on which guy you want if you want those bonus points for a win. But enough blabbing, let’s take a look at my FanDuel main slate breakdown for 8.21.

Main Slate Breakdown for 8.21 Pitching:

Just a quick note for everyone. Since we are looking at a full slate with 24 starting pitchers I wouldn’t be too concerned about ownership. Even with the guys you would consider chalk it will be spread out enough to where you shouldn’t have to fade your favorite play due to ownership. More of an issue for GPP’s but it’s something I want you all to keep in the back of your mind today when setting your lineups.

Cash:

Adrian Houser, Brewers, 7.4K:

Looking at everything today I really like Housers prospects against the Pirates. Pittsburg is sporting a 25.6% K rate with a .104 ISO. There is a little concern about Houser’s splits against left-handed bats but at the end of the day we are still talking about the worst offense in the MLB right now.

Aaron Nola, Phillies, 10.7K:

The Braves already have one of the worst K-rates in the MLB against RHP (26.2%) and they are going to be without Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. again with wrist injuries, completely hamstringing their power. Combine that with Nola striking out no less than seven batters in four starts and aside from his season opener has been flat out dominant. He’s by far the most expensive pitcher but it is not without good reason. The only problem I’m having with locking him in is that his price makes it tough to fit solid bats for the rest of your build.

Also Consider: Danny Duffy

GPP

Kolby Allard, Rangers, 6.2K:

I’m a little hesitant about recommending Allard because of how few innings he has pitched in his starts so far but if he can get into the 6th inning to get the quality start and win bonuses everything else stacks up well. Seattle has the worst xWOBA and ISO against left-handed pitchers in the MLB and Allard is sitting at just a hair over nine K’s per 9. His splits don’t look great right now but I think that is just a product of the small sample we’re working with for this season.

Max Fried, Braves, 9.4K:

Even with the ownership being spread out over 12 games I still think Fried’s ownership is going to be drastically lower that it should be based on the likelihood that the Braves are not going to give him enough run production to get the win. If you want to leverage against that and get an elite level left-handed arm here’s your guy. He’s given up no more than two earned in any of his five starts and he struck out six in five innings with zero earned and got the win against the Phillies back on the 9th.

Main Slate Breakdown for 8.21 Stacks and Bats:

Dodgers:

I usually just make the joke about always Dodgers and move on but the match-up pops out even more than usual today so I thought that I should spotlight them. There are really too many stats to go through here. They are all off the chart. Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Max Muncy, AJ Pollock, and Cody Bellinger are extremely strong plays today in all formats and I would feel completely comfortable using Joc Pederson and Justin Turner when stacking. We even get a marginal benefit of the wind blowing out to dead center field at around 7 MPH.

Cash: Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Max Muncy, AJ Pollock, Cody Bellinger GPP: Joc Pederson, Justin Turner

White Sox:

As my partner in crime today already mentioned in his Picks and Pivots article it is, in fact, Lester day and boy oh boy this should be fun for the White Sox. Hard hit rate, K-rate, fly-ball rate, and ISO numbers are all weighted heavily against Lester tonight. Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Abreu, and Eloy Jiminez are viable in all formats and James McCann and Adam Engell are fine plays when stacking.

Cash: Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Abreu, Eloy Jiminez GPP: James McCann, Adam Engell

Padres:

Chris Woodward, what did you do? Not only did your complaining about the “unwritten rules” make the sports community collectively roll their eyes but your choice to hit Machado to “prove a point” put a fire into the Padres and they have been on a tear ever since. McCuller has put up decent numbers this year but Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado, Trent Grisham, and Eric Hosmer all profile very well against him with a minimum .365 wOBA and Jake Cronenworth is looking like a fantastic value at 2.6K.

Cash: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Trent Grisham GPP: Eric Hosmer, Jake Cronenworth

Others to consider: Giants, Angels, Rays

Favorite Pitcher:

Cash: Adrian Houser

GPP: Kolby Allard

Favorite Stack: Dodgers/White Sox

Favorite Chalk Player: Mookie Betts

Favorite Low Owned Player: Trent Grisham

Salary Saver: Jake Cronenworth

Home Run Call: Yoan Moncada

Thrive Fantasy

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Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports FanDuel main slate 8.21 breakdown. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday 8.21

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday 8.21

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday 8.21! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

Pitching was a lot more fun yesterday, let’s just say that. There’s some decent options but many feel a little overpriced as opposed to yesterday. Most of the attention should justifiably go to Phillies starter Aaron Nola. He’s on a three start streak of over 30 DK points and draws a Braves lineup that is really beat up.

Over the past two weeks, the Braves are sixth in the league in K rate to RHP at 26.2%. They do still the fifth best average and 11th best OPS, so there is some danger. With no slam dunk options, Nola is going to fit the bill with his 39.8% K rate and easily career-best 14.8% swinging strike rate. Even if he gives up a couple runs, the K upside is certainly there.

In the same time period that we looked at the Braves offense, guess which offense is dead last in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ vs RHP? It’s the Milwaukee Brewers. After Jose Berrios helped our own StixPicks to a takedown yesterday, we’re going right back to the well. Is Pirates starter Chad Kuhl anything special? Not particularly. He does have a 33.3% K rate through his 14 IP so far and his swinging strike rate has jumped to 12.8% this year. His best strikeout pitch has been his slider, getting whiffs 24% of the time. Milwaukee is 25th vs that pitch this season. The Brewers are a flow chart offense until they prove otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

In the words of Bruce Buffer – IT’S..TIMMMMEEEEE!!

We here at Picks and Pivots attack Jon Lester every fifth day regardless of offense against him. It just so happens today he faces the Chicago White Sox offense, who have no less than five hitters with an ISO over .210 and seven with wOBA’s over .320. That doesn’t even count rookie sensation Luis Robert. Any mix of Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, James McCann, and Edwin Encarnacion is on the table today. Don’t be afraid to use Adam Engel as a wraparound option either to differentiate even further.

My secondary stack to work with the White Sox is the other color Sox, Boston. They’ve had their share of issues this year but the offense can still hit. With players like JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Christian Vazquez, Michael Chavis and maybe even Kevin Pillar if he leads off, they can hang a crooked number here. Orioles starter John Means is giving up a 48% hard hit rate to go with his 44% fly ball rate and that’s a terrible mix. Furthermore, RHH have rocked him to a .350 wOBA and a .825 OPS through 32 hitters so far. Mixing and matching these two offenses unlocks loads of potential.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

It’s a Sox kind of day for me as Boston and Chicago definitely stand out. With 13 games on this slate, it’s wise to not get too focused on any one team no matter how great they look if you play multiple lineups. Pitching is certainly much trickier than yesterday and we might need to take a couple more risks than we’re accustomed to.

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Teeming Thursday, Aces and Bases for 8.20

scotthouston1971@yahoo.com 5 years ago

written by scotthouston1971@yahoo.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 20th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Kevin Gausman ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD)

Man this is some good value. Gausman is absolutely locked in with the splitter this year, allowing no more than 3 earned in any start, and the strikeouts are just pouring in (32 K%) as he pounds the upper half of the zone with fastballs (sitting 96!) and splitters underneath.

Gausman gave us 11ks vs Oakland in his last go on the bump and today’s Angels match up will be the best one hes had all year (LADx2 / SDP/ @COL).

Honorable Mentions: Dinelson Lamet

Top Ace(s): Shane Bieber ($10,600 DK / $12,000 FD) Clayton Kershaw ($10,200 / $10,100 FD)

Bieber at $12k on Fan Duel might be the highest price for a pitcher yet this year. Last years breakout start continues to impress everyone though as he mows down offenses. Can’t imagine the Pirates give much a challenge here as Bieber has generated 54 strikeouts already this year.

Kershaw is Kershaw. He is great and its great to see him do good and have that fastball sitting at 92mph and up, although the command looked a bit shaky on the heater, the slider is still doing its thing.

Honorable Mention: Jose Berrios / Sonny Gray

Punt Play: Yusei Kikuchi ($5,700 DK / $6,500 FD)

Everybody loves to talk about increased velocity, myself included. Kikuchi is the latest velocity darling, and while it hasn’t panned out just yet the expected stats are telling us greener pastures are ahead. The Dodgers are a tough lineup to try and get right in front of but Kikuchi’s baseball savant page is littered with red. Here’s hoping we see some improvements today.

Honorable Mentions: Asher Wojciechowski

Top Fade: Brandon Woodruff ($8,500 DK / ( $8,200 FD)

This is a no brainier, the options are bountiful today so why would anyone single out the guy throwing against the Twins. All the plays above Woodruff seem pretty solid so its easy to stick with them and find some value low on the board.

Honorable Mention: Adam Wainwright

MLB DFS: The Bases

No weather concerns across the board today with a near full slate.

Top Stacks

Oakland Athletics – The A’s should find themselves into the bullpen early as Alex Young is not fully stretched out yet. Young looked alright during his last outing but this A’s team just has no quit right now.

Value Stacks

San Francisco Giants – The Giants get to face off against Jose Suarez of the Angels today. Its the season debut for Suarez as he missed all of summer camp with an undisclosed injury. Through 18 starts last year Suarez got knocked around a bunch and ended the year with a ERA north of 7.
Baltimore Orioles – The ball loves to fly out in the summer in Baltimore, and Eovaldi loves to get beat up by the long ball.

Thrive Fantasy

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Make sure you follow me on Twitter @TimmySigs and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.20

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.20

We’re back after a pretty successful day one of the Starting Rotation! We hit pretty well on six of eight pitchers mentioned. The only two misses were Ryan Castellani (Coors, am I right?) and Julio Urias. Still, a 75% hit rate would be excellent for the season and we’ll happily take that. Hopefully it helped you yesterday to pick some pitching. The slate for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.20 has quite a few big names so let’s get after it and have a great night again!

*Note* A quick reminder that pitch data is the opposition’s rank vs that pitch. Also, a pitcher has to throw it more than 10% of the time for me to list any pitch.

Cash Game Picks

Shane Bieber/Dineslon Lamet

This will be the case for a couple more days while I cover Picks and Pivots, but these pitchers have been covered. There’s no need to repeat it here.

Sonny Gray

Pitch Data – FB – 19th SL – 14th CB – 26th

Using pitch data for the Cardinals is a bit tough considering they’ve played all of 13 games, but that’s the data at hand. Gray gets a great matchup by the numbers with the Cards in the bottom 10 in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Additionally, they are whiffing 25.1% of the time vs RHP. Maybe that’s partially due to lack of playing time, but it’s still something Gray can take advantage of.

For his part, Gray is boasting a 37.2% K rate through his 30.2 IP already. His fly ball rate is phenomenal at 23.1%, 13th best among starters. The swinging strike rate of 12.3% would be a career high and supports the gaudy overall K rate. There’s no real reason to not use Bieber in cash, but if you just desperately want money for bats, Gray is certainly safe.

Clayton Kershaw

Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 19th CB – 17th

I will not be using Kershaw really at all tonight, but he’s likely fine for cash. We aren’t going to see vintage Kershaw very often any more but the 28.1% K rate with a 13.6% swinging strike rate is certainly nothing to complain about. Just like we talked about yesterday, Seattle is a sweetheart matchup.

They rank bottom-five in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS and OBP so there’s not a ton of threat on paper. The 26.1% K rate they have is the fifth-worst as well. Urias wasn’t able to take advantage yesterday but Kershaw is still a far different animal. He should provide a solid floor, even if I’m not particularly on him myself.

GPP Options

Jose Berrios

Pitch Data – FB – 28th CB – 11th CH – 15th

The GPP options for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.20 are interesting. I will likely be very heavy on the Bieber/Lamet combo but let’s get different. Berrios can be joy or nightmare to roster on any given night. He’s had a rough year so far with a 5.92 ERA and a 5.03 FIP. The K rate has gone down for him to just 21.6% and the HR/9 is 1.48, highest of his career. You’re likely asking why in the world I’m talking about him and he main answer is simple – Brewers.

With Milwaukee sitting in the top three in K rate at 28.1%, the K spot can’t get much better. Berrios is still generating an 11.1% swinging strike rate, so he has the ability. In theory, it’s a good run prevention spot as well. Milwaukee is not above 26th in OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA or wRC+. This is an offense we want to pick on, even with unreliable pitchers like Berrios. His price will leave him virtually un-rostered on this slate.

Brandon Woodruff

Pitch Data – FB – 21st SL – 11th CH – 9th

We’re not going far for perhaps the ultimate risk/reward option on this slate. Yes, the Twins are a very dangerous offense. They are second in home runs to righty pitching this year behind only the Dodgers. With that power approach comes strikeouts, with the eighth-highest rate at 25.4%.

Woodruff’s main weapon is his strikeout rate at 29% and he leans on his fastball mix over 60% of the time (sinker and four-seam). With that being the worst pitch type for the Twins, Woodruff could have sneaky appeal here. He’s held LHH to a .239 wOBA and the Twins are projected to have six in their lineup tonight, which would help him. Just treat carefully, as Woodruff has not made it past 4.1 IP in his past two starts.

Kevin Gausman (riskiest of the bunch)

Pitch Data – FB – 25th SF – 8th CH – 23rd

This is a super interesting spot for Gausman and is the lowest I’m going on DK. The Angels are good vs the splitter, but that’s a little used pitching general across the majors. I’m not sure reading too far into that is a great idea. Gausman is still getting a big 14.5% swinging strike rate, generally backing up his 31.8% K rate to this point. His 4.21 ERA actually looks a little unlucky. Both the FIP and xFIP sit at 3.10 and 3.15 respectively.

The Angels don’t strike out a ton by any stretch. The 21.7% K rate is one of the 10 best in the league. Likewise, the OBP and OPS is top 10 so this is definitely not a dream spot for Gausman. One of the keys for Gausman is his L/R splits. LHH have tagged him for a .392 wOBA and a .956 OPS. RHH only have a .242 wOBA and are whiffing almost 37% of the time. The Angels lineup projects to be five RHH. The lefties do have a combined .356 wOBA vs RHP. If Gausman can navigate that side and keep the Mike Trout/Anthony Rendon combo in check, he could pay off his price.

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday 8.20

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday 8.20

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday 8.20! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

So….I guess DK is really into the NBA playoffs. I mean, I get it. They’ve been really compelling so far and a blast to watch. However, DK is asleep at the wheel with this Shane Bieber price tonight. He’s under $11,000 and his average is 35 DK points per start so far. This is the same Bieber with a 1.30 ERA, 42.9% K rate and a 19.8% swinging strike rate. That’s 1.5% above the second place mark and he leads the league in raw strikeouts. Oh, and the Pirates are a terrible offense. There is a smash button next to his name and Bieber is good chalk in all formats.

Just as confusing to me is the Dinelson Lamet price. His past two starts have generated 37 and 25 DK, yet his price dropped by $700. The Padres righty is seventh in swinging strike rate across starting pitchers and ninth in total K’s. Paying $19,100 for two top 10 strikeout pitchers seems like a pretty easy path to take tonight. Texas is actually not a big K team to RHP at just 20.9% but their bottom-four mark in OPS and wOBA don’t strike fear into my heart at all.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

Even though are pitchers are not priced accurately, we still don’t have the most amount of salary to build our offense. Fortunately, we have some good avenues and I’m turning to the Orioles once again. You could argue they’ve been my guys but they are almost always low-owned and better than perception. It’s only 15.1 IP, but Nathan Eovaldi is giving up a .446 wOBA on the road with a .354 average and a 2.35 HR/9. I really like a three-man stack of Chance Sisco, Anthony Santander and Renato Nunez. They’re projected as the 1-3 hitters tonight. They also all have at least a .216 ISO and a .328 wOBA vs RHP. The lowest OPS between them this year is .876.

I’ll interested to see how the Diamondbacks come in tonight as well. A four man stack jives really well with the three Orioles and Arizona gets a good spot. They face Oakland LHP Sean Manaea, who has scuffled badly so far. He’s not going to maintain an ERA over 7.00 but the D-Backs have some lefty mashers at very cheap prices tonight. My main quartet is Ketel Marte, Starling Marte, Nick Ahmed and Eduardo Escobar.

All four of these hitters have ISO’s over .215 since 2019 and have wOBA’s over .340. On top of that, all four have K rates under 19% which is a huge bonus. I know Escobar has been invisible so far this year. I’m a big proponent of players like that in DFS. The talent is still there and he’s out of sight, out of mind to a lot of the field.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

I do believe that pitching is going to be fairly chalky tonight. It’s justified and I’ll probably eat it because we could legitimately get 20-22 strikeouts between Bieber and Lamet. Both are underpriced by roughly $1,000, if not a little more for Lamet. With chalky pitching, this is even more of a reason to find lower-owned offenses in good spots. MLB is so variable that the chalk offenses can pretty easily fail every night. The O’s and the D’Backs should be stealthy picks tonight.

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.19

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.19

Welcome into the first edition of the Starting Rotation article! The goal here is to break down starting pitchers for every MLB slate, dividing them into Cash Game and GPP options! If you read Three StriKes, you kind of know what I look for here. The advanced metrics, pitch data and salary are all going to be used here and everyday. Let’s dig into MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.19 and see which pitchers we’re going to chase tonight!

*Note* The number after the pitch type is opponent’s rank vs said pitch. So if there’s a 20 after FB, the team the pitcher is facing is 20th vs the fastball.

Cash Game Options

Gerrit Cole/Jacob deGrom/Pablo Lopez – Since I’m covering Picks and Pivots, I already dug into the big two aces and Lopez. There’s no reason to subject you to the same info here.

Julio Urias

Pitch Data – FB – 29th CH – 26th SL- 23rd CB -16th

Urias has not featured much strikeout upside yet and the price is inflated to my eyes. However, I also feel pretty good about he’s not going to get lit up in this spot. Urias leans heavily and his fastball/changeup mix at about 80% this season. The Mariners struggle badly against those pitches so we have one big check to Urias.

Unsurprisingly, Seattle is a top-eight offense in K rate to LHP. This could help Urias improve on his current 15.3% K rate. The swinging strike rate of 11.8% would certainly lean you towards the stuff is good enough to get K’s eventually. What we don’t like is the 50% hard hit rate and the 40.9% fly ball rate. Seattle again helps cover that issue as they are 20th in fly ball rate and 15th in hard hit rate. The Mariners are also dead last in average, wOBA and OPS so Urias can give you six strong. The ceiling just might not be there with his salary.

Chris Paddack

Pitch Data – FB – 26th CH – 15th CB – 19th

The ERA for Paddack wouldn’t make him look very safe, sitting at 4.91. However, the 4.07 xFIP looks much better and there’s only been one rough start. The biggest issue for Paddack is his fastball. That pitch is getting mashed so far. The fastball has given up a .333 average, .521 ISO and six bombs surrendered already. With the Rangers a bottom-five team vs that pitch, it seems like a good spot for it to get right.

The other big factor going fo Paddack is he continues to see pretty extreme splits at home and on the road. This trend has been there his whole career so far, with a 3.06 ERA at home this year. The K rate goes up, the HR/9 goes down… he just loves home cooking. Texas is bottom-five in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, ISO and OBP vs RHP. Paddack under $8,000 should be able to hit value in cash games. He and Lopez are as low as I’m going.

GPP Options

*Note* Casey Mize for the Tigers is set to make his debut. He’s a highly touted impact prospect, but remember – debuts are a total grab bag. He’s one of the most volatile pitchers on the slate and not in the easiest matchup to start. I would only have exposure with 20 or more lineups.

Lance Lynn

Pitch Data – FB- 15th SL – 9th CB – 17th

You always want to find some different pitching and we have some good options for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.19. Lynn continues to be a strikeout pitcher all of the sudden and improved to 29.8% this season. Lynn has only given up 27.4% hard contact and has an 11.9% swinging strike rate. Both sides of the plate are under a .200 wOBA against him so far as well but The Padres are a dangerous offense. They do have top 10 marks in wOBA and ISO but Lynn is a machine. He’s been over 100 pitches every start, which is a huge advantage in this day and age. Lynn should be overlooked with bigger names on the slate and with a tougher spot.

Tyler Glasnow

Pitch Data – FB – 5th CB – 1st

I’m almost always driving the Glasnow Bandwagon and today is really no different. To say it’s been a rough start is an understatement. Glasnow has a 7.04 ERA, a 13.7% walk rate and a 1.76 HR/9. He’s still averaging 12 DK points through all of that because he’s striking out over 37% of the hitters he’s facing.

Much like Paddack, his fastball is the issue right now. He’s seen it give up a .277 ISO and a .319 average. That will not continue, nor will his .424 BABIP and his 65.8% strand rate. The xFIP of 3.24 tells the story much more for Glasnow and he’s a major positive regression candidate. With DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge all out of the Yankee lineup, this could be the start Glasnow puts it together.

Ryan Castellani

Pitch Data – FB – 17th SL – 6th CB – 20th CH – 12th

It’s time to get a little nuts. Castellani has been pretty useful in his 8.2 IP in the majors this year. He’s got two starts of 13+ DK and got his pitch count up to 88 this past start. With the small sample size caveat, his K rate is 31.3% and the FIP and xFIP are both under 3.75. His ERA is 1.04 but that’s obviously not here for long. If you took this matchup out of Coors, it’s not really that bad.

Houston doesn’t strike out a ton to RHP at just 21.2%, seventh-best in the league. The flip side to that is they’re no higher than 24th in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS or average. We typically just pass over pitchers in Coors but the price is so low, this is a worthwhile risky punt that could sink you or skyrocket you tonight.

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday 8.19

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday 8.19

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday 8.19! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

I’m still kicking myself for never truly considering Kenta Maeda yesterday and locking in on Carlos Carrasco. They were basically the same price and I’ve been routinely picking on the Brewers, but I digress. We have a really packed pitching slate with some aces and some big names tonight. Some of those names have a reputation not matching their performance.

SP1

We have to start up top with Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole. This isn’t keeping with the spirit of Brian’s Picks and Pivots, but my initial lean is Cole pretty quickly here. He’s $800 cheaper and that’s not an insignificant amount. Let’s see what the numbers say.

Cole has seen his K rate dip from last year (insert Astros cheating joke here) but it’s still at 30.4%. He’s hit eight and 10 in his last two starts through 11.2 IP. The only pick at Cole in my eyes is the Rays are projected to have six LHH in their lineup tonight. That side of the plate has been an issue through 51 hitters so far, racking up a .331 wOBA. I tend to think that’s a small sample kind of number. The 63.6% fly ball rate and 45.5% hard contact are still scary for Yankee Stadium.

For deGrom, he just faced this Marlins team and only scored 17.9 DK points which is disaster at his salary. Much like Cole, he’s had a couple starts that have been great for strikeouts. He’s also had a couple that have been sub-par. The K rate is about 32% and deGrom has been giving up production to RHH so far. They have a .323 wOBA, 56.5% hard contact rate and a 1.84 HR/9. It’s a bit odd to see both pitchers with some potential weaknesses in their game. My initial lean was Cole and I still may just go with him. The 2020 numbers suggest deGrom could be the better fit if the Marlins have fewer RHH in their lineup.

SP2

With an expensive SP1, my usual goal is to get a cheaper SP2. I can see one that fits the bill very nicely. Pablo Lopez has been delivering on some of his promise so far in 2020. He’s rocking a 2.25 ERA and a 28.4% K rate. I do have a slight concern with the Mets being the second-best changeup team in the league. Still Lopez has such an evil one it doesn’t scare me too much. Additionally, Lopez has been better to LHH with a .212 average, .223 wOBA and still having a 20.6% K rate. $7,200 is awfully cheap and game log watchers might be scared off by his 9.9 DK vs the Mets once already this year. I’m paying more attention to his two 25+ DK games in his other starts.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

We’ll need some cheaper offensive pieces and the first stop for me is the Nationals lefty hitters. It should be a little difficult to fit in a Juan Soto if paying up for pitching but we can still use this offense but DK continues to make a pricing error. Braves starter Kyle Wright is getting smacked this year and LHH have a .470 wOBA, .367 average and a -10% K-BB% ratio. Yeesh. We can use Soto, Adam Eaton, Asdrubal Cabrera and the still massively underpriced Luis Garcia. Fitting Soto isn’t even that hard with Garcia.

Here’s where we can get a little nuts. If you add Victor Robles to the Nationals stack and punt catcher, you can play a five man Nationals stack with Cole and Lopez as your pitchers. That leaves you open 3B and SS…with just enough money left over to play Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story vs a LHP in Coors Field. Neither hitter is over $5,7000 and I don’t think we need to go into too much detail of what they do in Coors to LHP. It’s really crazy you can fit in Cole, Soto, Arenado and Story all into the same lineup and that has some crazy high potential.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

Man this is a fun slate. Yesterday I almost felt handcuffed due to lack of appealing options at pitcher. I felt most of my builds had their hands tied, but today is the opposite. The possibilities seem endless but for the most part, my focus is and ace paired with Lopez for pitching. I want some Coors pieces to go along with my main stack of the Nationals, because you just shouldn’t be able to jam in all these players. Take full advantage of some of these pricing errors.

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday 8.18

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday 8.18

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday 8.18! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

SP1

I’d like to start off by thanking Ross Stripling for absolutely nothing last night. It’s the Mariners dude. My word. Alright, let’s get down to business where we have some aces to choose from. You can make a compelling case to use a lineup with both and that’s what I’m looking to do with Yu Darvish and Carlos Carrasco.

Through 24 IP, Darvish is rocking a 30% K rate and just a 4.4% walk rate. The WHIP is just 0.75 in the early going to go along with a massive 16% swinging strike rate. That ranks seventh among starting pitchers this season. The projected Cardinals lineup does have six LHH in it but Darvish has held them to a .208 wOBA and whiffs 27.3% of them. It’s not a giant concern in this spot. Five of those six have K rates over 21% anyways.

SP2

For the part of Carrasco, he draws the MiLB-esque Bucco lineup. Against RHP this season, the Pirates are dead last in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Not bottom 10. Not bottom five. DEAD. LAST. The K rate is still at 24.5% overall and Carrasco sits at a 32.3% K rate himself. His 52.9% hard contact rate and 1.61 HR/9 aren’t my favorite metrics ever but the cupcake matchup is too good to pass on. It’s rare that I spend up on both pitchers but I’m really behind that idea on this slate.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

If you plug in two ace pitchers, you’re looking at $3,700 per player and likely wondering where I’m going with this. Fortunately, we have two stacks that fit perfectly together positionally and salary-wise. We kick it off with Red Sox LHH. Yes, the Sox are really having a rough go of it but Phillies starter Zach Eflin has always bled production to LHH. In 2019, 319 LHH hit him for a .356 wOBA, .859 OPS and a 2.17 HR/9. He’s faced 21 LHH so far and they have a .623 wOBA and two bombs already. Plugging in an under-priced Rafael Devers along with Mitch Moreland and Alex Verdugo gives us a nice base. All three are over a .210 ISO and a .340 wOBA vs RHP.

We still need some big savings so we turn to a Picks and Pivots standby – the Los Angeles Dodgers. Seattle starter Marco Gonzales has a K rate under 19% along with fly ball and hard hit rates well over 40%. AJ Pollock, Chris Taylor and Kike Hernandez all have wOBA’s over .330 and the first two have ISO’s over .220. They fit beautifully with our two aces tonight.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

Hopefully I channeled Brian today with the double ace/Dodgers approach because I believe that’s how he would go after this one. The lower tier pitching is really tough to find someone I love. Seeing as we can fit two offenses with firepower potential, I don’t see much of a reason to not throw two aces tonight. The potential is there for both to be in the top five scorers of the night.

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Mets’ Monday Aces and Bases

brgrewe@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

We’ve been on an absolute hot run in MLB DFS at Win Daily Sports (cheat sheets, projection models, and all of the write-ups)! Let’s run it back today. The August 17th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS 11 game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Zach Davies ($8,200 DK / $7,800 FD)

It’s not sexy at all, but Davies is probably one of the only “value” pitchers on my board that isn’t a complete “punt”. Davies is not missing a whole lot of bats this season but what he is doing is keeping the baseball in the park (0.099 ISO) and getting deep enough in every start to qualify for the win.

Davies gets a comfortable opponent with the Texas Rangers who own a 25% strikeout rate against right handers, an incredibly low walk rate, and an average ISO. If the roof is closed in Texas tonight, there’s no reason to fade Zach Davies outside of a limited K-rate. This ballpark ranks 26th in ballpark factor (a complete opposite of the Rangers’ previous home ballpark). Davies should go deep into this game, limit the damage, and have a good chance at the WIN bonus on both DFS sites as a -145 road favorite

Honorable Mentions: Griffin Canning & Ross Stripling

Top Ace(s): Hyun Jin Ryu ($9,400 DK / $9,300 FD)

Ryu is without a doubt the top ace on the board tonight. My only concern is Baltimore is kind of getting hot at the plate recently and this ballpark in Baltimore is a launching pad. Luckily, Ryu has a very low ISO and should limit the damage and go deep into this ballgame as the Orioles basically refuse to take walks and drive up opposing pitch counts.

Ryu is also coming off of his two best starts of the season and seems locked in as he’s generating a 15% whiff-rate. Ryu is going to be insanely chalky tonight, so I don’t mind if you pivot away from him in GPP tournaments tonight, but he needs to be the main focus in the pitching department of your cash game lineups.

Honorable Mention: Zac Gallen

Punt Play: Alex Cobb ($7,300 DK / $6,500 FD)

After the last couple MLB DFS seasons of stacking against Alex Cobb, it blows my mind that I’m interested in rostering him tonight… but here we are.

Low-key, Cobb has been lights out this season (in terms of Alex Cobb). He’s yet to give up more than 4 hits and 2 earned runs in a start and is supporting a respectable ~12% whiff-rate. What should help him tonight is Toronto’s putrid 26.1% K-rate against opposing right-handers.

Again, this ballgame is in an extremely hitters-friendly ballpark and the Blue Jays have shown the ability to hit the long ball (.186 ISO against righties), so by no means is Cobb a safe play. He’s going to come in with sub-10% ownership tonight, so I think he makes for a sneaky GPP play, but that’s about it.

Honorable Mentions: Gio Gonzalez (gross)

Top Fade: Brandon Bielak ($7,400 DK / ($6,300 FD)

Bielak is seeing some crazy high ownership tonight (on DraftKings) and I’m not quite sure why. Colorado doesn’t strike out as often as they do in years past and have a very respectable .174 ISO against opposing right-handers. Sure, the Astros could get to Freeland early and give Bielak a comfortable lead, but he’s yet to go past 5 innings of work and I don’t see that happening tonight.

By no means is Bielak a bad play as he’s been generating a lot of swings and misses and he’s a home favorite. I’m just not sold on his upside when 25% or more of the field is going to roster him on DraftKings tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Tonight seems like a great night to pay up for your bats. We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for the Thursday’s Main Slate.

Top Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers – Justin Dunn is bad. The Dodgers’ bats are hot. With an implied team total at 6.3 runs, the Dodgers seem like an absolute smash play tonight. Dunn has done a solid job limiting the damage in his first 3 starts of the season. Tonight, that changes.

Dunn is extremely prone to walking batters. The Dodgers love to take walks and then punish you with a .203 ISO against righties. Once the Dodgers chase Dunn out of this game it may only get better for their offense as the Mariners’ bullpen holds a brutal 5.76 xFIP. Yikes.
New York Mets – It’s Mets’ Monday! Jordan Yamamoto is by far the worst graded pitcher on my model for tonight’s slate. He has an extremely high fly-ball/line-drive rate, crazy high average exit velocity, and a slate-leading barrel rate (that’s a bad thing).

The Phillies did a nice job in the past weekend series with quieting the Mets’ hot bats, but Luis Rojas’ boys should put on a show tonight against Yamamoto and this Marlins’ bullpen. Dominic Smith is on fire and should continue to smash the baseball tonight along with all of these Mets’ power hitters.
Los Angeles Angels – Tyler Anderson is the starting pitcher for the Giants… Stack the Angels. The Giants’ bullpen is arguably the worst in the MLB (5.78 xFIP)… Stack the Angels.

Value Stacks

Chicago White Sox – Boyd grades out as the third worst pitcher on my model. But, he does have the ability to generate a lot of strikeouts. If he’s not missing bats early, the White Sox should put up a crooked number against Boyd and this struggling, overused Tigers’ bullpen.
Atlanta Braves – Not a big fan of the Braves’ lineup without Ronald Acuna Jr. but Anibal Sanchez has been absolutely brutal this season. If there was any game to get right, it would be tonight against a banged-up Braves’ offense, but I just don’t see that happening with how bad Anibal has looked.

The Braves have a 5.57 implied total and that is enough for me to be interested in a stack against Anibal Sanchez and a bad Washington bullpen.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @StixPicks and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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MLB DFS

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.21

Cash Game Options

Aaron Nola

Max Fried

Andrew Heaney

GPP Options

Chad Kuhl

Walker Buehler

Adrian Houser

Lance McCullers

Main Slate Breakdown for 8.21 Pitching:

Cash:

Adrian Houser, Brewers, 7.4K:

Aaron Nola, Phillies, 10.7K:

GPP

Kolby Allard, Rangers, 6.2K:

Max Fried, Braves, 9.4K:

Main Slate Breakdown for 8.21 Stacks and Bats:

Dodgers:

White Sox:

Padres:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday 8.21

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Kevin Gausman ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD)

Top Ace(s): Shane Bieber ($10,600 DK / $12,000 FD) Clayton Kershaw ($10,200 / $10,100 FD)

Punt Play: Yusei Kikuchi ($5,700 DK / $6,500 FD)

Top Fade: Brandon Woodruff ($8,500 DK / ( $8,200 FD)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Value Stacks

Thrive Fantasy

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.20

Cash Game Picks

Shane Bieber/Dineslon Lamet

Sonny Gray

Clayton Kershaw

GPP Options

Jose Berrios

Brandon Woodruff

Kevin Gausman (riskiest of the bunch)

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday 8.20

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.19

Cash Game Options

Julio Urias

GPP Options

Lance Lynn

Tyler Glasnow

Ryan Castellani

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday 8.19

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

SP1

SP2

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday 8.18

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

SP1

SP2

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Zach Davies ($8,200 DK / $7,800 FD)

Top Ace(s): Hyun Jin Ryu ($9,400 DK / $9,300 FD)

Punt Play: Alex Cobb ($7,300 DK / $6,500 FD)

Top Fade: Brandon Bielak ($7,400 DK / ($6,300 FD)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Value Stacks

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