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MLB DFS

FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown For 8.28

Uriah Wesson 5 years ago

written by Uriah Wesson

Happy Friday folks! I’m in a bit of a rush today, due to the recent protest we did not have a slate for either FanDuel or DraftKings today until about 10:30 AM est So I’m going to skip the usual introduction and get right into my FanDuel main slate breakdown for 8.28.

Slate note: I can not stress this enough, DO NOT PLAY TODAY IF YOU CAN NOT BE IN FRONT OF YOUR LINEUPS PRIOR TO LOCK. We have no idea what games, if any will be protested and postponed today and weather is a mess on top of it.

FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown for 8.28 Pitching:

Max Scherzer, Natinals 10.6K:

No need to get cute here, if you can afford the salary play him. He as close to a sure thing as you’re going to get tonight. We drastically overrated the Red Sox offense coming in to the season but we all see just how bad they are now. We might see a 60+ FD point outing tonight from him. This is additionally the only game I have zero weather concerns of. Also, I’m aware of my spelling. If you don’t know what I’m referring to look it up, it is quite humorous.

Daniel Ponce De Leon, Cardinals:

If you play anyone besides Max today in cash I really feel like you are playing cash games wrong, but if you must pay down pay all the way down to Ponce De Leon and really load up on premium bats. Wind is blowing in improving park conditions. Indians are near the bottom of the MLB in every major offensive statistic category and De Leon while in limited innings has a 40+ percent K-rate. If he can stay in control he did throw 94 pitches last game which should get us at least through the fifth inning getting us a potential quality start and win bonus.

Triston McKenzie, 8.7K, Indians:

I’m pretty limited with weather in terms of pitching but I would be willing to kick the tires on McKenzie today, we only have one major league start to go off of and boy was it electric. Unfortunately it was also against the Tigers which does not really give us much to go off of. He has a four-seamer that gets into the upper 90’s and he has maintained a K/9 rate of well over nine in his minor league career. The immediate jump to almost 9K might be enough to scare a few folks off of him and we can hope for a repeat performance.

FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown for 8.28 Stacks and Bats:

Astros:

You can really stack both sides of this game tonight if you wanted to, it is going to be hot, humid, and the wind is blowing out at well over 10 MPH. Some of the wind might be negated by the roof but it should not limit it much. Every 5 mph adds around 20 feet to a fly ball, I’ll let you math that out. I’m especially loading up on as many left handed bats as possible because Chris Bassitt is terrible against them allowing a 44 percent hard hit and fly ball rate.

Cash:Kyle Tucker, Michael Brantley GPP, George Springer: Josh Reddick, Yuli Gurriel

Padres:

Here we go again, wind blowing out in Coors in hot muggy conditions . You can load up to your hearts content tonight at possibly lower ownership that usual due to Kyle Freeland’s solid pitching this season and his earlier shutout of the Padres a couple of week ago. I really don’t expect the same result from this contest tonight since Freeland is allowing a ton of hard contact this season (41.4%) even though his end result has been good overall. ***There are potential weather issues so determine your risk tolerance before using***

Cash: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Will Myers GPP: Eric Hosmer

Rockies:

Same as above, great park conditions, potential recency bias because of the last dud and a bunch of guys who profile well. I’m stack both sides tonight.***There are potential weather issues so determine your risk tolerance before using***

Cash: Trevor Story, Noland Arenado, Charlie Blackmon GPP: Sam Hilliard

Rangers:

I need to give you one that may go a little under the radar and the Rangers fit that bill very well today. Great park and weather conditions, aside from on solid outing Dustin May has looked middling at best, and his splits skew wildly in favor of lefty bats which the Ranger have several. Half of May’s pitches are sinkers but oddly they don’t drop out of the zone much and lefties historically hit low strike zone stuff much harder than righties which may explain the splits.

Cash: Joey Gallo, Shin-Soo Choo GPP: Danny Santana, Derek Dietrich

Others to consider: Always Dodgers, White Sox/Royals (Late storms could cause this one to end early but both sides are stackable), Angels

Favorite Pitcher:

Cash: Max Scherzer

GPP: Can I say Max Scherzer again??? Fine. Triston Mckenzie

Favorite Stack: Astros

Favorite Chalk Player: Charlie Blackmon

Favorite Low Owned Player: Joey Gallo

Salary Saver: Shin-Soo Choo

Home Run Call: Michael Brantley

Thrive Fantasy

Have not had much time to look at the props on thrive today due to the time constraints but I will be back to giving you all my selections next week.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports FanDuel main slate breakdown for 8.28 . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.26

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.26

When you write up a pitcher that walks our there and scores 55 DK points and throws a no-hitters, things can’t bee that bad! Lucas Giolito was phenomenal last night and did whatever he wanted to the Pirates. Shane Bieber continued his run of dominance with double-digit strikeouts and if you paired those two up, you were in pretty good shape last night. MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.26 features two premier strikeout pitchers but we also have at least one pitcher at a significant mis-price to go after tonight!

Cash Game Options

Jacob deGrom

Pitch Data – FB – 13th SL – 21st CH – 22nd

deGrom does throw a curveball every now and again, but it makes up under 5% of his arsenal. Really the only nit-pick we an make here is it’s the third straight time for deGrom facing off against the Marlins. I’m not sure it makes him easier to hit, but it is an odd occurrence. Miami is also just mid-pack for K rate to RHP and deGrom hasn’t passed seven K’s or 25 DK in the first two starts. These are still minor concerns.

The righty for the Mets has seen his swinging strike rate jump by 3% this year to 18.3%, top-five in the majors. Unsurprisingly, the K rate is right at his career best of 32.1%. The ERA is under 2.00 and the FIP is a tiny 2.12. He’s one of the best for a reason and should be considered in all formats, and is likely cash chalk.

Dinelson Lamet

Pitch Data – FB – 28th SL – 17th

I’m not sure why DK keeps pricing Lamet so low, but it’s making it really easy to pair up deGrom and Lamet tonight for a potential 20 strikeouts in the lineup. Chris Paddack was flat awful in this same spot last night but those pitchers are not the same. Lamet is sporting a 34.1% K rate on the season to go along with his 1.98 ERA and 2.96 FIP.

He’s been lights out to both sides of the plate with a wOBA of .250 or under to both sides. He does whiff RHH more than LHH, but lefties are still over a 30% K rate. Splits aren’t a huge concern even with five lefties projected. The four RHH have a collective K rate of 29.2% so there’s no real reason to suggest Lamet shouldn’t dominate. He’s also still at least $1,000 too cheap, again.

Clayton Kershaw

Pitch Data – FB – 14th SL – 7th CB – 27th

If you feel compelled to not play the deGrom/Lamet pairing in cash (I’m fairly locked in), you almost have to go to Kershaw by default. I said last start we might not get vintage Kershaw but that’s exactly what we got. He struck out 11 hitters across 7 IP and just 96 pitches. The 32.2% K rate is the best Kershaw has had since 2015, a bad sign for the rest of baseball.

The swinging strike rate is back up over 15% for the first time in four years on top of that. The whiff rate on the slider has jumped by about 5%, which certainly helps explain some things. That pitch has gotten 62% of his strikeouts, where it was 57% last year. The Giants have given Kershaw his worst start of the year, but that is an outlier of the four starts. I strongly prefer deGrom/Lamet, but it’s hard to ever go wrong with Kershaw.

GPP Options

Elieser Hernandez

Pitch Data – FB – 18th SL – 8th CH – 1st

We don’t love the data for the slider and change, but Hernandez does use the fastball over 60% of the time so that helps mitigate the fear. The other factors that point me to Hernandez are the 32.9% K rate to just a 4% walk rate. He’s hit at least 13 DK in all four starts and given up three earned or under in all four. Coming off back to back 20+ DK starts, Hernandez didn’t see a salary raise from $6,600.

The splits really work out in the favor of Hernandez as well. He only gives ups .187 wOBA and .412 OPS to the left side of the plate so far. The K rate is spiked all the way to 40% and the FIP is 0.88. With five LHH projected for the Mets, Hernandez is a great low cost options with the tangible upside tonight. He is my favorite GPP option for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.26.

Jose Berrios

Pitch Data – FB – 24th CB – 22nd CH – 24th

It’s always scary putting Berrios in any article, let alone the next start after a dominating performance. Berrios is consistently inconsistent and getting him right twice in a row could be a lot to ask. Still, the matchup is good on paper. The pitch data really lines up well for Berrios, as does the ninth-highest K rate to RHP for the Indians at 24.7%.

Cleveland is also not above 24th in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA or wRC+ so the offense is one we can target. They do have more talent than the numbers indicate, so there’s sill risk. For Berrios, the 25.2% K rate is right about at his career best mark. The 11.5% swinging strike rate would be the best mark so there’s reason to believe he has some upside tonight. If the “Good” Berrios shows up, he could go for another 25+ DK game like last time.

Kevin Gausman

Pitch Data – FB – 1st SF – 18th CH – 9th

In the long run, there’s not a lot of money to be made using pitchers against the Dodgers. However, Gausman has already faced the gauntlet once and came away with 6.1 IP, six strikeouts and 22.5 DK points. That was on the road to boot. His pitch count has been over 100 for the last two starts so if things got relatively well, six innings is well within reach.

The Dodgers are the best K rate team to RHP but Gausman counters that with a 31.6% K rate of his own. He gets a swinging strike 14.8% of the time and the 4.65 ERA doesn’t match the 3.12 FIP. Pitchers against the Dodgers always come in low-owned, especially one without a real reputation like Gausman. Still, he’s already shown ceiling once in this spot and is capable of doing it again. This is only a play for the bold at heart.

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.25

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.25

Last night’s slate didn’t turn out exactly how I had envisioned, but we still hit on a lot of solid plays. Maybe the higher end like Trevor Bauer were a little disappointing but overall, it wasn’t the worst night. Lance Lynn and Jesus Luzardo especially stood out so let’s keep building momentum. Tonight’s slate has two of the best arms in the business so let’s get right into MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.25!

Cash Game Options

Shane Bieber

Pitch Data – FB – 19th SL – 18th CT – 25th CB – 18th

Perhaps one of the reasons Bieber has already had a 13 strikeout, 46.2 DK performance against these Twins is the pitch data. Minnesota isn’t in the top half of the league against any of Bieber’s main four pitches. The 46 DK points have been Bieber’s best score to date, so I can’t say I’m extremely worried about the matchup. He still leads MLB starters in total strikeouts, K% and ERA. On top of that, the swinging strike rate is also best in the majors at almost 19%. Still under $11,000 for some unknown reason, Bieber is an incredible option across all formats tonight.

Gerrit Cole

Pitch Data – FB – 3rd SL – 3rd CB – 3rd

Well, talk about a not-so-encouraging pitch data matchup. The Braves sit third vs all Cole’s major pitches and we’d be silly to not consider that. However, Atlanta is also top six in K rate to RHP at 25.6% on the year so there’s absolutely room for Cole to mow them down.

The key for Cole this year has been what type of lineup he’s facing. LHH have actually had some success with a .344 wOBA and an .800 OPS. Additionally, the K rate is 27% versus a 35.5% mark to RHH. The 6.33 FIP to LHH is eye-opening as well. Fortunately for Cole, the Braves lineup projects to be skewed to the right side of the plate with five RHH. I prefer Bieber, but Cole is still talented enough to overcome whatever flaws we can pick at.

Chris Paddack

Pitch Data – FB – 29th CH – 24th

With Paddack relying on these two pitches 87% of the time, they’re the pitches that are most important to look at. I believe the Bieber and Paddack pairing will be the chalk pairing in cash over on DK to afford some offense. With the Mariners having a 22.8% K rate and bottom 10 in ISO and wOBA, it’s hard to argue.

Paddack has only had one poor start this year that has skewed some of his results. Considering it was against the Dodgers in LA, I’m fine giving him a pass. He’s at home tonight and he continues to love it in San Diego with a 2.66 ERA through 23.2 IP. His K rate isn’t spectacular at 21.1% but he is under $8,000. His swinging strike rate is only down one percent so he should see an uptick in K rate. Paddack recorded a 26.1% rate last year and 25% seems reasonable the rest of the way.

GPP Options

Lucas Giolito

Pitch Data – FB – 28th CH – 22nd SL – 12th

This is one of the more interesting picks in MLB DFS: Starting rotation 8.25. If this was last year when Giolito was in full breakout mode, he’d be sitting in the cash options pile. He has had a couple bumps in the road so while I do think he’s right at the cash line, the Bieber/Paddack combo is likely the route to take. Giolito is coming off his best start of the year, racking up 43.4 DK points against the Detroit Tigers. Now he gets the Pirates, who are of little threat.

The K rate and swinging strike rate this season are really right in line for last year for the righty. One thing that has shifted is the walk rate from 8.1% to 11.3%. Since Pittsburgh is dead last in walk rate to RHP, this is less of a concern tonight. Giolito might be lower owned than Cole or Bieber, making him very interesting tonight.

German Marquez

Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 1st CB – 9th

As is typical of Marquez, he’s two different pitchers so far this year. He’s been awesome on the road with a 1.93 ERA and .237 wOBA through 18.2 starts. Somebody please trade for him to get him out of Coors. Anyways, he’s in Arizona tonight and the D-Backs offense has been less than inspiring this year. They are 20th or worse in wOBA, wRC+ and ISO so far.

The bugaboo here is the six LHH projected for the D-Backs. Marquez only gives up a .250 wOBA on the road to lefties, but the K rate is only 16.7%. Combine that with a second-best 20.4% K rate for Arizona and there’s risk here. The risk is more “does he pay off price” because I don’t think he gets lit up. I always have shares of Marquez on the road and tonight will be no different.

Adam Wainwright

Pitch Data – FB – 6th CT – 16th CB – 27th

This pick isn’t exactly typical, as I’m not a big Wainwright guy at this point in his career. However, the deeper I looked, the more sense he made in GPP. Splits are important for Waino. Last year he was lights out at home with a 2.56 ERA compared to 6.22 on the road. Through 13 IP at home this year, he’s at a 2.08 ERA and just a .208 wOBA. The opposing lineup composition is important as well.

Waino only has an 11.9% K rate to LHP compared to 24.1% to RHH. The Royals are projected for five lefties, but three have a K rate above 26%. With the Royals being near the bottom of the league against the curveball, that could help Wainwright in a major way. It’s been responsible for seven of 12 strikeouts already. The only two hitters in the positives of FanGraphs rating vs the curve is Whit Merrifield and Maikel Franco. Wainwright could be a stealthy option with Paddack and Marquez both cheaper.

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

NBA

8.25 MLB DFS Preview Podcast

Michael Rasile 5 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

8.25 MLB DFS Preview Podcast

On the 8.25 MLB DFS Preview, Ghost and Michael check out the 8.25 MLB slate and give their favorite plays for the night!

Listen to the show below and make sure to subscribe on your podcast app of choice!

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS: Mini slate Monday, Aces and Bases for 8.24

scotthouston1971@yahoo.com 5 years ago

written by scotthouston1971@yahoo.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 24th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Jesus Luzardo @TEX ($7,400 DK / $7,700 FD)

Luzardo is really coming into his own and has been doing some great things with his slider (44% whiff rate) and changeup (53% whiff rate), hes also fully stretched out finally going about 90 pitches last outing. I wish Luzardo would pound more 4 seamers and less Sinkers, but the tunneling has done a good job so far.

The Rangers are terrible at getting on base, they have been taking weak at bats a lot this year and come into today’s game with a team slash line of .210/.288/.345.

Honorable Mentions: Lance Lynn

Top Ace(s): Trevor Bauer @MIL ($10,200 DK / $12,000 FD) Kenta Maeda @CLE ($9,400 / $9,400 FD)

Bauer has been dominant this year, over 26.1 IP he’s rocking a 14 k/9 and a .068 ERA! The Brewers bats have been struggling so hard to find run production this year and I’ve been playing any pitcher I can against them.

Maeda took a no-no into the 9th last week! Almost had it. Maeda has been locked in this year and his statcast page is lit up with red to back it all up. Facing off vs a weak Cleveland team here (.208 team BA) I am surprised this price is not higher.

Civale has been awesome this year, I love his approach and the fastball command is just so tasty, he would be a top Ace if not for the great match ups Bauer and Maeda have today

Honorable Mention: Aaron Civale vs MIN

Punt Play: Brad Keller @ STL ($6,700 DK / $8,900 FD)

Keller has incorporated a new curveball to his arsenal and boy has it been good. Keller’s new breaker has been getting a ton of called strikes and whiffs has hes kept it in and around the bottom of the zone. The fastball tunneling has been spot on as well and he keeps all the 4 seamers up.

Honorable Mentions: Casey Mize vs CHC

Top Fade: Jack Flaherty vs KC ($9,300 DK / ( $10,000 FD)

Flaherty looked good in his first outing back but got the hook after only 41 pitches. Flaherty is not fully stretched, and loaded the bases on two walks and then a plunk, which was a bit concerning. So were looking at like a 5 inning ceiling here. Price is just too high with that production cap, even against the Royals. There is a good chance Flaherty will be a top ace next week against the Pirates if everything goes smoothly here.

Honorable Mention: Alec Mills @ DET

MLB DFS: The Bases

No real weather concerns across the board today with a near with the small slate to start the week. With these small slates I really like to focus in on a couple stacks.

Top Stacks

Houston Astros- The Astros are 0-8 against teams over .500 this year. Luckily for Astros though, the Angels are 9-20 and are rolling out Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval could not keep the breakers in the bottom part of the zone and was punished in his last outing. The Astros should feast tonight.

Value Stacks

Detroit Tigers – The Tigers have been barreling the ball really well so far this year and are actually leading the league in hard hit % at 42.4%. Alec Mills got toasted his last time on the bump and had nothing working, have to attack him until he gives a reason not to.

Thrive Fantasy

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Thrive Fantasy! As I said I like and Astros stack and Trevor Bauer tonight, and you can grab the OVER on Bauer’s K Prop of 8.5, and Springer to go OVER 0.5 Runs + RBI. Check them out and use promo code “windaily” when you sign up for some extra bonuses. Learn how to play here on our quick over.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @TimmySigs and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday 8.24

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday 8.24

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday 8.24! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

We have a smaller seven game slate on hand tonight and it’s hard to not want to just lock onto Trevor Bauer as our SP1 in this spot. The pricing just doesn’t make sense to me yet again. Bauer should easily be $11,000 or more. Four starts in and Bauer has racked up an amazing 43.6% K rate and that leads MLB among SP with 20 IP. There’s nothing wrong with the swinging strike rate at 13.2%. Bauer faces the Brewers, whom he has a 36.5 DK performance. That’s been the floor for Bauer and Milwaukee is top three in K%. This is an easy SP1 choice.

I’m interested in some other pitchers that we’ll cover in the Starting Rotation, but I want Lance Lynn to pair up with Bauer tonight. Lynn has been somewhat underrated for over a year now and I love that he exceeds 100 pitches every fifth day. That’s an unbelievable luxury. Oakland can get to pitchers but they also whiff at a top 10 rate in baseball to RHP. Lynn is only 1.1 IP behind Shane Bieber for the league lead and he has a 28% K rate himself. That bumps up to 30.2% to RHH, which benefits Lynn vs Oakland’s RHH-heavy lineup. He should not be under $9,000.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

On paper, this is a very strong pitching slate. There’s not a ton of obvious attack spots so we’ll fall to a trustworthy option – Houston. They are missing pieces to be sure but Angels starter Patrick Sandoval is giving up a .367 wOBA and .860 OPS to RHH this year. He does generate ground balls at a high rate but the 53.1% hard hit rate will come back to bite him at some point. The main targets for Houston are Yuli Gurriel (team leader in wOBA and ISO vs LHP), Carlos Correa, Abraham Toro and maybe Martin Maldonado, pending how you spend on catcher. All these players have a wOBA over .320 and an ISO of at least .172 (Correa) on the year.

I’m then turning to cheap Arizona bats to finish off my stacks. Rockies starter Ryan Castellani has been fine through his first three starts. However, the D-Backs are very cheap and there’s no track record for Castellani. Kole Calhoun, David Peralta and Ketel Marte are all over a .320 wOBA and Calhoun has a huge .333 ISO and a .936 OPS.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

As I mentioned, the offensive side of the ball is tough today. I’ll be listening to our team for ideas and routes to attack through the day. We can always update things in Discord for that side of things. On the pitching side, there’s a ton of options. Bauer and Lynn are definitely my favorite but there’s many ways to go on this one.

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.24

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.24

After an off day due to some power difficulties, we’re back in action with MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.24 and it is a LOADED slate for just seven games. I’m interested in at least half the pitchers on the slate and that’s just the ones I really like. That doesn’t mention ones I could build a case for. Let’s start digging in and see what directions we can take our builds for Monday.

Cash Game Options

Trevor Bauer/Lance Lynn

Both pitchers were laid out in Picks and Pivots so check that out to read up on why they are such strong options tonight!

Merrill Kelly

Pitch Data – FB – 7th CT – 21st CB – 28th CH – 26th

Past the fastball, this is a strong pitch data matchup for Kelly. Even then, he only throws it 46% of the time which is on the lower side for a starter. The Rockies continue to be a poor offense on the road, with a top 10 K rate to boot. They are no higher than 25th in OPS, OBP, wOBA or wRC+. On top of that, they are dead last in ISO on the road to RHP. Kelly has some upside in this spot and he feels mighty safe for his price.

Kenta Maeda

Pitch Data – FB – 23rd SL – 26th CH – 27th

This spot is great for Maeda for his three main pitches, so a big tick for him right off the bat. I didn’t exactly think we’d be targeting the Cleveland offense all that much, but they have flopped pretty majorly thus far. They rank in the top 12 for K rate to RHP and are just a bad offensive team. The Indians are no higher than 24th in average, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA or wRC+.

Maeda has a K rate that’s approaching 29% and a fly ball rate of just 27.6%. Couple that with a 26.3% ground ball rate and we can see why Maeda has a 2.27 ERA and a 2.46 FIP. One of the biggest shifts is Minnesota letting the leash off him. He’s made it through at least six innings in four of five starts. That’s a massive shift from his Dodger days. His price is still very fair and I don’t believe he gets blown up.

GPP Options

Jesus Luzardo

Pitch Data – FB – 25th SL – 30th CH – 19th

It’s been a mixed bag for fantasy production from Luzardo so far. He’s got two starts below 10 DK, one in the negative points and then three above 18. That’s the definition of a GPP play but the pitch data is certainly in his favor tonight, as is the price. Luzardo is whiffing 23.9% of the hitters he’s facing with only a 25% fly ball rate.

The young lefty also gets a great matchup for strikeout upside since the Rangers are sixth in K rate to LHP at 26.1%. Additionally they are bottom 10 in every major offensive category we value. This could be a repeat of his last game where he scored 28.1 DK points and he would smash value in that scenario.

Brad Keller

Pitch Data – FB – 20th SL – 18th

Keller is not my normal GPP pick, but the price is awfully low for a pitcher averaging over 20 DK in his first three starts. Now, he’s yet to give up an earned run so it’s painfully obvious that some type of regression will get to him. To wit, the xFIP is at 4.32. That’s not exceptionally bad but that’s a massive difference as well. The K-BB% isn’t my favorite at just 10.6% but St. Louis could help here.

They are a top 10 team in K rate at 24.8% and are 27th in hard hit rate at just 38.4%. The only team with a lower ISO is the Pirates, and that’s not where you want to be. I worry if Keller gives up some runs because he doesn’t have a ton of strikeouts to fall back on. Through 436 plate appearances, they only have 51 total runs vs RHP so Keller is worth a shot at such a low price.

Casey Mize

Pitch Data – FB – 11th SL – 29th CB – 6th SF – 15th

So we obviously need to approach the pitch dat with caution. Mize only has 4.1 IP at the major league level, so grain of salt and all that. On 19 splitters in the first start, he got a 31% whiff rate so it’s definitely going to be a big weapon for him. The Cubs have some good pieces, but are down Kris Bryant right now. They are also second in the league in K rate to RHP at 29.1%.

Make no mistake, Chicago could do some damage here. They are a top 10 offense pretty much across the board. Mize gave up three earned in the first start but it was interesting to see the FIP and xFIP at 2.93 and 1.29. He likely pitched a little better than the line suggests. Five strong innings with another 6-8 strikeouts is within reach and worth a gamble.

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB GPP Picks 8/23

billyr011199@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by billyr011199@gmail.com

MLB GPP Picks 8/23

In this article I will be breaking down MLB GPP Picks 8/23. I will inform you with at least one player per position that strikes my interest and If I am interested in a player on only one site, I will be site specific. I will be using DraftKings pricing for this article.

We have a seven-game afternoon main slate to dissect for my MLB GPP picks 8/23. We have two high strikeout pitchers at the top with Yu Darvish and Carlos Corrasco. They’re each facing very high strikeout teams in the White Sox and Tigers, so both of them have a high strikeout and fantasy point upside. The weather appears to look clear for all games tomorrow, but it can change in the blink of an eye. Make sure to check into the Discord Chat rooms as myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff as we get closer to lineup lock and team lineups are confirmed.

Pitcher

Corbin Burnes – ($7,400)

Squaring off against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Burnes has a favorable matchup in front of him. This Pirate lineup has been awful that correlates with their 6-17 record. The Pirates haven’t struck out a ton this season but Burnes has a 33% strikeout rate so far this season, so something has to give. Pittsburgh doesn’t offer a ton of power as they have hit the fifth fewest homeruns this season, with two teams below them missing games due to COVID. Burnes should have a successful day unless his walks and control get away from him.

Catcher

Ryan Jeffers – ($2,400)

This is mostly a salary relief play as he won’t need to do much to hit his value. Kris Bubic the pitcher he is facing has allowed 4 homeruns in just 19 innings this season. Jeffers did hit 14 homeruns in 103 games in the minors last season so there is some homerun upside here. I really like the salary relief that Jeffers has to offer.

1^st base

Ryan McBroom – ($2,500)

As the twins are looking to have a bullpen game but will likely have Devin Smeltzer try to consume the bulk of the innings. Against right-handed batters Smeltzer is allowing an extraordinary average exit velocity of 101.4. McBroom should be in for a good day as he carries an ISO of .389, a flyball rate of 63.6%, and a hard-hit percentage of 54.5% this season against left-handed pitching.

2^nd base

Jason Kipnis – ($3,400)

Kipnis will be eyeing up Dylan Cease as he faces the other Chicago team. Cease has allowed six homeruns in just 25 innings pitched, that shows as his ISO against lefties is .270. Kipnis had his price slightly increase but he still enjoys right-handed pitching as he carries and ISO of .333 and a wOBA of .434.

Short Stop

Xander Bogaerts – ($5,200)

Bogaerts is matching up against Wade Leblanc who has been awful against right-handed hitters this season. He has given up an ISO of .240 and a hard-hit percentage of 48.2% against right-handed hitters. Xander has been solid against left-handed pitching with an ISO of .314 and wOBA of .441, which is the highest on the team.

3^rd base

Brad Miller – ($4,000)

Tyler Mahle hasn’t been terrible this season but is still giving up a flyball rate of 68.4%, while also allowing hard hit rate of 47.4%. Miller has started off his season late but very impressively batting nearly .350. He also holds an ISO of .294, wOBA of .500, and a hard-hit rate of 50%.

Anthony Santander – ($5,200)

First off, this game has a run total in Vegas of ten, even ten and a half in some spots. The pitcher Santander is facing Zack Godley who has struggled against lefties, surrendered an ISO of .237, a flyball rate of 46.2%, and a hard-hit rate of 42.3%. Santander has smashed right-handed pitching this season with an ISO of .407, a flyball rate of 48.6%, and a hard-hit percentage of 50%.

Randle Grichuk – ($3,500)

There is no question that Grichuk has destroyed left-handed pitching this season and tonight he faces a rookie left-handed pitcher making his debut. Grichuk has an enormous ISO of .563 and a hard-hit percentage of 50%. This matchup is an excellent one for Grichuk and I he should capitalize against a left-handed pitcher.

That will wrap it up for this Sunday of MLB GPP Picks 8/23 afternoon main slate. For pitchers I will have a solid amount of the two top priced guys having them in around 50% of my lineups. I will mix in some of these cheaper pitchers with the, as Corbin Burnes will be my main cheaper pitcher. Be sure to join myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff in the Discord chat rooms as we breakdown the slate even further as lineups start getting solidified. Goodluck, and thanks for reading my content!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.22

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.22

My goodness, was it an absolute minefield for pitching last night. Walker Buehler, Max Fried and Chad Kuhl were about the only two that hit and Buehler was the only big hit. Past that, it was littered with busted chalk and pitchers that couldn’t get out of their own way. There’s not many more obvious choices for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.22 but we’ll unearth some gems along the way here!

Cash Game Options

Zac Gallen

Gallen was featured today in Picks and Pivots so there’s no need to go over him again.

Zack Wheeler

Pitch Data – FB – 1st SL – 6th CB – 8th CH – 25th

At first glance, it’s not an encouraging matchup for Wheeler via the pitch data. However, some of that is mitigated by the pieces the Braves are currently missing. Yes, Nola fell apart but that seemed more a case of him losing it than anything. He was strong to start and I was as if someone hit the switch on him. Wheeler has a 9.8% swinging strike rate and a a puny 12% K rate.

He’s really cash only (and overpriced at that) because of the K rate so far. His calling card has been no hard contact at 27.2% and no fly balls at 22.5%. Neither side of the plate has over a .300 wOBA against Wheeler but the matchup means we should consider him. He’s certainly not my pitcher of choice. We’d just be aiming for safety here.

Kyle Hendricks

Pitch Data – FB – 10th CB – 4th CH – 16th

Another matchup where the pitch data may not look great, but Hendricks is very good at limiting damage. His ERA hasn’t been over 3.50 since 2015 and the FIP hasn’t been over 4.00 in his career. This year, the K rate has dipped a little to 19.7%. The White Sox might help him out though since they sit fourth in K rate at 26.1%.

Chicago showed last night that the lineup is certainly dangerous. Still, Hendricks doesn’t allow much hard contact at 36.4% and it’s hard to lift the ball on him at a 28.3% fly ball rate. Aiding that metric is the White Sox ranking 26th in flay ball rate to RHP at just 31.8%. Hendricks should be able to frustrate this mostly young White Sox lineup with his craftiness.

GPP Options

Triston McKenzie

McKenzie was also featured in Picks and Pivots so you can check out his breakdown there!

Dustin May

Pitch Data – FB – 8th CT – 20th

May is a really interesting case for this slate. He does throw a curve and a change but not really enough to consider here. I thought about putting him in cash but the reality is he’s only scored above 9.5 DK twice in five starts. Now, he’s still appealing because the Rockies have two different offenses. They have a good one in Coors and they have an abjectly awful one on the road. They even got Buehler a get right spot last night for the first time all year.

Colorado may also help out May’s lack of strikeouts since they have a 27.1% rate to RHP on the road. There’s no discernible advantage from either side of the plate, so the projected lineup shouldn’t be a huge concern from that aspect. I’m not a huge fan of the price but there’s definitely a reason to take the shot here with May flashing ceiling in two starts.

Justus Sheffield

Pitch Data – FB – 23rd SL – 30th CH – 18th

Sheffield arguably has the best pitch data matchup of the slate and that’s very nice tick in his direction. It also helps that he comes cheap still and the Rangers have been rough vs LHP so far. They rank sixth K rate at 27.1%, which should help out Sheffield’s 21.4% mark. Texas ranks no higher than 20th in average, OBP, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ vs LHP. Their best mark is the 18th best ISO, at .162.

The young lefty for the Mariners is combatting a mediocre K rate with a great fly ball rate of just 27.1%. Texas is right in the middle of the pack for fly ball rate at 17th overall. Sheffield is far from trustworthy, but with only one earned run over his past 12 IP he is rolling. The matchup is well worth considering.

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday 8.22

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday 8.22

Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday 8.22! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

Hopefully we can avoid the absolute tire fire that was Friday’s pitching today. Fortunately, we do have some pitchers to feel a little bit better about and it’s starting at the top with young ace Zac Gallen. I’m calling him an ace because he fully deserves it at this point for the 2020 season. His first 30 IP have been a gauntlet with the A’s, Dodgers, Astros, Coors and the Padres all on his resume.

He’s racked up a 30.3% K rate and a 13% swinging strike rate while keeping both his hard contact and fly ball rates under 32%. About the only metric that suggest some regression is the 96% strand rate, but with a 2.40 ERA regression isn’t going to kill him. He should not be under $10,000 on this slate to my eyes. The Giants only have a 21.8% K rate overall but are bottom 10 in OBP, OPS, ISO and wOBA to RHP. Even if San Francisco loads up on LHH, Gallen still strikes them out 28.3% of the time.

We like to get bold here in Picks and Pivots so the SP2 pick for today is going that route. Triston McKenzie is not likely a name you’ve heard of before opening this slate (raises hand). He hasn’t pitched competitively since 2018 since there is no minor league this season. Yet, he peaked at 33 on Baseball America’s prospect list that year.

Cleveland has a long history recently of producing great pitching. In the minors, McKenzie had a 24% K rate and a fly ball rate under 40%. Since he’s facing the Tigers, this is a gamble worth taking. They lead the league in K% to RHP and are 25th or worse in average, OBP, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. He’s under $5,500 which is cheaper than some hitters. Even 10-12 points can make McKenzie a great pick.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

It might be a little tiring because they’ve been my guys but I go where the stats tell me to go. The stats say we have an offense facing a LHP tonight and is dominant in this split. Their ranks are –

wRC+ – Third

wOBA – Fourth

ISO – Second

OPS – Fourth

OBP – Ninth

Average – Seventh

Ladies and Gentlemen, we’re talking about your Baltimore Orioles. They are phenomenal as an offense to lefties and I plan to attack Martin Perez. He doesn’t strike anyone out at a 16.5% rate, has an xFIP over 6.00 with a 40% fly ball rate. Hanser Alberto, Renato Nunez, Pedro Severino and Anthony Santander all boast a wOBA over at least .335 and all but Alberto have a .233 ISO or higher. Also, Ryan Mountcastle is a great add at $2,600. The prospect can be a stack or a one-off option. In the MiLB last year, he smashed LHP for a .349 average and a .959 OPS.

We lived up to Brian’s reputation yesterday as the White Sox destroyed Jon Lester (insert Nelson Muntz HAHA!) and we channel him one again for the second stack. It’s not Picks and Pivots without some LA Dodgers love and they face a LHP tonight. Kyle Freeland is sporting a FIP almost two runs higher than his ERA and has no strikeouts to fall back on at just 14.6%. He’s living on a ground ball rate of 58.1% but the Dodgers are seventh in fly ball rate to LHP at 39.4%.

That’s a bad mix for Freeland and since we punted our SP2 spot, we have some salary. Mookie Betts, AJ Pollock and Chris Taylor are the first three in for me. However, don’t sleep on the LHH either. Freeland has given up a 2.45 HR/9 and a .321 wOBA through 16 hitters faced. Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy both have an ISO over .260 and a wOBA over .375 to LHP.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

Hopefully we can nail the stacks as well as we did last night as the two teams approached 20 runs. Now, getting pitching right would be a nice step as well but the lineups come together really well with McKenzie. When we have a talented pitcher with a great organization against a terrible pitcher, it’s worth the risk. The Baltimore and Dodgers stack mesh super well and we can mix and match through their lineups.

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS

FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown for 8.28 Pitching:

Max Scherzer, Natinals 10.6K:

Daniel Ponce De Leon, Cardinals:

Triston McKenzie, 8.7K, Indians:

FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown for 8.28 Stacks and Bats:

Astros:

Padres:

Rockies:

Rangers:

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.26

Cash Game Options

Jacob deGrom

Dinelson Lamet

Clayton Kershaw

GPP Options

Elieser Hernandez

Jose Berrios

Kevin Gausman

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.25

Cash Game Options

Shane Bieber

Gerrit Cole

Chris Paddack

GPP Options

Lucas Giolito

German Marquez

Adam Wainwright

8.25 MLB DFS Preview Podcast

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Jesus Luzardo @TEX ($7,400 DK / $7,700 FD)

Top Ace(s): Trevor Bauer @MIL ($10,200 DK / $12,000 FD) Kenta Maeda @CLE ($9,400 / $9,400 FD)

Punt Play: Brad Keller @ STL ($6,700 DK / $8,900 FD)

Top Fade: Jack Flaherty vs KC ($9,300 DK / ( $10,000 FD)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Value Stacks

Thrive Fantasy

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday 8.24

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.24

Cash Game Options

Trevor Bauer/Lance Lynn

Merrill Kelly

Kenta Maeda

GPP Options

Jesus Luzardo

Brad Keller

Casey Mize

MLB GPP Picks 8/23

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.22

Cash Game Options

Zac Gallen

Zack Wheeler

Kyle Hendricks

GPP Options

Triston McKenzie

Dustin May

Justus Sheffield

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday 8.22

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

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