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MLB DFS

FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown For 9.4

Uriah Wesson 5 years ago

written by Uriah Wesson

Happy Friday folks! We made it through another week. As has been the trend for me lately there are a number of stack worthy games and a combination of decent pitchers in mediocre/bad spots or mediocre/bad pitchers in good spots. However I do think I’ve found a few pitching targets in each price point to tailor to your respective builds. If you are new here welcome to the Win Daily family and enjoy my Fanduel Main Slate Breakdown for 9.4.

FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown for 9.4 Pitching:

Yu Darvish, Cubs, 11.4K:

If you can afford the price tag he is worth a long look tonight. I was talking about it at the beginning of the season on discord that he was going to be over 10K in no time and that it looked like he fixed his issues in the second half of last season and clearly that has carried over. He’s back to his Cy-Young form and he looks largely un-hittable right now. He’s put up more than 50 FD points in three of his last four including a 61 point outing against the Brewers and 58 versus the White Sox. I have no reason to think that the Cardinals are going to do anything to slow down his pace tonight. Park conditions for Yu are negative tonight so if you were to make an argument besides price you can in that regard but that’s about it.

Kyle Cody, Rangers, 5.7K:

Do not expect a monster performance here as it looks like best case scenario he gets four innings in his first start tonight but if you are loading up with premium bats Cody is not a terrible option. Seattle is far from being menacing offensively and Kyle currently has a 43 percent whiff rate on the season. Best case scenario today is around 25 points for him so have tempered expectations but he is capable and can provide you much needed salary to pay up elsewhere.

Corbin Burnes, Brewers, 7.6K:

I was trying to find a justification for several other guys tonight but I just kept going back to Burnes for my third choice. Everything is pointing towards him starting to figure it out and Cleveland, while in first in their division, still have games where the struggle tremendously offensively. They strike out at an almost 24 percent clip and Corbin has a K-rate of well over 30 percent. If he can keep his walks down he has an outside chance of being the top overall play tonight.

FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown for 9.4 Stacks and Bats:

White Sox:

We have reached a pretty good point where we can start relying on this season’s data a bit more confidently and with four games in the books against the Royals we know one thing. The White Sox are going to produce. They have scored no less than five runs in each game and now they have recent exposure to Royals pitcher Brady Singer who gave up three earned in five innings. I don’t think there is a ton of need to give this audience a bunch of stats on these guys. If you are a Win Daily subscriber you have been hearing us talk White Sox for the entire season.

Cash: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Yasmani Grandal GPP: Tim Anderson, Edwin Encarnacion

Padres:

I’m all over the right handed bats for the Padres today. Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr, Will Myers, and Austin Nola all profile extremely well across the board and Luzardos splits against right handed bats do not work in his favor. His 41 percent hard hit rate and 29 percent line drive rate with the favorable park conditions tonight leads me to beleive that we’re going to have a decent amount of production from the Padres tonight.

All formats: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr, Will Myers, Austin Nola

Giants:

I’m hoping the Giants will go largely unnoticed tonight. They’ve played the Diamondbacks five times, have scored between 4-6 runs and won each of the five contests. Additionally the adjustment to the park this season has turned Oracle park into a much friendlier hitters park with the added benefit of 10 mph wind blowing out to center field tonight. Brandon Belt,
Mike Yastrzemski, and Alex Dickerson match up particularly well with ISO’s over .270 and pitcher with a 40 percent fly ball rate and 38 percent hard hit rate over the last two seasons.

Cash:Brandon Belt, Mike Yastrzemski, Alex Dickerson GPP: Evan Longoria, Wilmer Flores

Others to consider: Always Dodgers, Mets, Phillies

Favorite Pitcher:

Cash: Yu Darvish

GPP: Corbin Burnes

Favorite Stack: White Sox

Favorite Chalk Player: Jose Abreu

Favorite Low Owned Player: Will Myers

Salary Saver: Alex Dickerson/Austin Nola

Home Run Call: Mike Yastrzemski

Thrive Fantasy Selections:

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Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports FanDuel main slate breakdown for 9.4 . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.4

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.4

Yesterday’s pitching slate was about as ugly as it looked on paper. Clayton Kershaw was dominant as we mostly expected, but was one of the chalkier plays of the year. Both Dylan Cease and Mike Clevinger were under 10 DK points as we illustrated some of their issues. The Kershaw and Taijuan Walker combo was really the way to go. The MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.4 looks far better with many more options to sift through and narrow down our pool!

Cash Options

Yu Darvish

Pitch Data – CT – 11th FB – 11th SL -16th CB – 21st

The pitch data isn’t a slam dunk matchup, but Darvish also throws a change and split finger. Since he doesn’t rely one one particular pitch more than 40%, I’m not overly concerned about the pitch data. Darvish has been dominant through seven starts, racking up a 1.47 ERA with a 2.02 FIP and a 30.8% K rate. He’s even got a higher BABIP at .314 and he’s still one of the better pitchers in baseball. He’s only had one season with 140 IP or more with w BABIP over .300, so that could come down.

Darvish should get five RHP in the Cardinals lineup and he’s whiffing that side of the plate 39.1% of the time. Even the lefties aren’t the biggest concern, and two of them sport a K rate over 25%. In cash games, there’s no reason not to pay for Darvish who has hit at least 22 DK in six of seven starts.

Dane Dunning

Pitch Data – FB – 17th SL – 20th CB – 25th CH – 28th

Dunning is only throwing the curve and change about 8% but with such a small sample, I decided to include them as well. He’s still under $6,000 which catches your eye immediately. He’s showing his promise over his first two starts, racking up 14.2 and 24.7 DK points in each. The metrics also look excellent, compiling a 2.89 ERA with a 2.17 FIP and 1.83 xFIP. The K rate is an eye-popping 40% through 9.1 IP and he’s only walked two hitters. That type of control is impressive for a rookie.

The Royals are a top 12 offense as far as K rate goes, so Dunning has that going for him. Even though the Royals did just see him, we really only need 15-18 DK points to be happy. He is projected to see five lefties, but they have a combined 23.4% K rate themselves. Only Alex Gordon has a wOBA over .300 vs RHP since the start of 2019. This is a good spot and the price is too cheap.

Dustin May

Pitch Data – FB – 7th CT – 19th

I want to be clear that May is a CASH ONLY play for me, simply because I don’t think he gets smashed. He’s shown little upside so far, perhaps because he throws his fastball/cutter combo 85% of the time. Mixing in something else might help the K rate rise above 16.1%. Regardless, we usually have some interest in pitchers when the Rockies are on the road. They whiff 24% of the time and are 25th or worse in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. May has started seven games and only has double digit DK in three, so I have no interest in GPP.

GPP Options

Jack Flaherty

Pitch Data – FB – 19th SL – 28th CB – 14th

Anytime Flaherty is under $10,000, he deserves a strong look. He actually is my favorite GPP pitcher for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.4. With how the Cardinals season got derailed, he’s had to work to stretch back out. He was up to about 85 pitches last outing so we can expect him to be full go today. The K rate has dipped down to 23.3% form almost 30% last year but again, judging him off his first four starts seems unfair. The whiffs should come back in no time.

Even without the strikeouts, Flaherty is only allowing a 32% hard contact rate and a 22% fly ball rate. That’s a great mix and the 14.4% swinging strike rate is better than it was in 2019. The Cubs have a good offense but they also are a bit feast or famine. They rank only 16th in average and whiff at the third-highest rate in baseball. Flaherty could put it all together tonight.

Zach Davies

Pitch Data – FB – 16th CH – 27th CT – 18th

I’m not exactly sure where this Davies season has come from, but he does have my interest tonight. Oakland is a similar offense to the Cubs – low average, but goo OBP team with a high ISO and wOBA. That certainly is concerning, but the pitch data really skews to Davies. It looks even better when you notice he throws that change almost 41% and that’s the pitch the A’s really scuffle with.

Here’s the key to this matchup – how Davies handles the RHH. Oakland is a little less RHH heavy with the addition of Tommy La Stella, but Davies is tough to lefties with a .176 wOBA. He gives a .315 wOBA and a .737 OPS but he whiffs them at a 30.1% rate. Oakland’s projected RHH have a K rate above 25% tonight. Davies could get hammered, but if he controls the RHH and gets his K’s, he could also easily top 20 DK.

Corbin Burnes

Pitch Data – FB – 24th CT – 23rd CH – 16th SL – 21st CB – 16th

We’ve watched the Indians struggle all season so far and I’m going to turn the tables tonight and use a pitcher against them. Through 32.1 IP this year, Burnes might be figuring out how to harness his raw stuff, compiling a 2.78 ERA and a 2.45 FIP. Even the xFIP at 3.75 really isn’t that bad when you have a 35.1% K rate. Cleveland strikes out 23.5% of the times and is in the bottom half, if not lower than 20th in almost every major offensive category this year.

The one aspect that could get Burnes into trouble is the walks. The Indians lead the league in walk rate to righties and Burnes does have a huge 13% walk rate. It’s the main reason he’s not a cash option to me but the plus side is his K rate is steady to both sides of the plate. The walk rate is a hair lower to LHH, which is a nice aspect vs Cleveland. Burnes has 20 DK point upside tonight.

Monkey Knife Fight Picks

Since this is a pitching based article, we don’t talk about offenses too much unless we’re attacking them. It’s a great time to sign up with our link to monkeyknifefight.com and make some bets yourself that are based on offense!

We’re going to New York tonight as Rick Porcello and Jake Arrieta take the mound. Neither pitcher is having a good year, as Arrieta is giving up at least a .341 wOBA to each side and a 1.64 HR/9 to LHH. Porcello is well over a .400 wOBA to RHH so this is a great spot to chase the offenses.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends!

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.3

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.3

It was another very solid night for the Rotation as nobody got really blown up. Max Scherzer wasn’t good for his price, but we talked about he was the plug and play option in cash. At 65%, he didn’t hurt you in that format. Zac Gallen continues to prove why he’s in play every single start by dominating the Dodgers, and Triston McKenzie was on point. Maybe there’s reasons Cleveland wasn’t holding onto Mike Clevinger for dear life. We’ll get to him later in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.3 as he might be prominent on just a six game slate that locks at 4 PM!

Cash Options

Clayton Kershaw

Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 6th CB – 11th

I made an off-hand comment on a live stream a few weeks ago about Kershaw being a safe option on that particular slate. I guess Kershaw didn’t appreciate that, because he has been that guy most of 2020. The K rate is just under 30% and the ERA is 1.80. That’s likely a hair misleading since Kershaw has a 100% strand rate but there’s also no reason to expect major regression either.

He’s throwing the slider over 40%, which might seem like a bad match vs Arizona. However, Kershaw is in the top 20 of slider value on FanGraphs rating. Eight of the pitchers rated ahead are relievers, so he’s 11th among starters. The D-Backs only have a 19.4% K rate but they also sport a .287 wOBA and .107 ISO vs LHP. That was with Starling Marte, who is now in Miami. Kershaw is the lock and load cash pitcher on a six game slate.

Mike Clevinger

Pitch Data – FB – 26th SL – 16th CB – 12th CH – 15th

I’m not overly in love with Clevinger here, but playing cash it’s important to match ownership. I would have to imagine Clevinger is a very popular SP2 paired with Kershaw with a lack of alternatives. Now, the pitch data actually doesn’t look all that bad for Clevinger. He’s pitching for the Padres for the first time so we don’t know exactly how prepared he is as far as off the field stuff. Moving from Cleveland to San Diego is a big change. Still, Clevinger is easily one of the most talented pitchers on this slate.

The Angels continue to not be a big strikeout team at just 21.3%. Clevinger has seen his K rate plummet this season to just 22.6%, down over 10% from last season. His walks are up as well but hopefully he embraces a fresh start. He’s been slightly better to RHH even though both sides are over a .330 wOBA. The Angels are projected for seven RHH so Clevinger is a fine option for cash, though there’s risk involved.

GPP Options

Dylan Cease

Pitch Data – FB – 17th SL – 24th CH – 27th CB – 26th

If we see Cease picking up some steam in ownership for cash, I would be fine replacing Clevinger in that format. You can argue Cease has been the safer pitcher as it is, although they’ve both had one bad start. The fear with Cease is his K rate has plummeted as well, to a measly 17.6%. He’s still walking a ton of hitters as well at 11.8% and that’s not typically the profile I want for $9,500.

Both sides of the plate are over a .345 wOBA, which is pretty scary. The Royals are 24th in walk rate which hopefully limits the downside for Cease in that facet. They also have a projected five RHH, which Cease at least gets to a 22% K rate. Both he and Clevinger have some frightening metrics, which is why I prefer Clevinger in cash and Cease in GPP as things stand.

Taijuan Walker

Pitch Data – FB – 12th SL – 19th SF – 26th CB – 7th

Do I trust Walker? Not even a little bit. Is he worth the gamble on this mess of a pitching slate under $5,000? You bet. I’ll reiterate that MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.3 is tough today. He’s another pitcher that I’ll be interested to see what happens for ownership. Will the masses be willing to risk putting him with Kershaw in cash? I lean no, but it could be something that happens. There’s not a pitcher I love for today, so may as well spend a hitter’s salary on one.

Now in fairness, Walker really hasn’t been that bad this year. The ERA is 3.27 and the FIP and xFIP are both under 5.00, at least. The K rate is average at just 21.2% but Boston does whiff 25.1% of the time to RHP. Walker has displayed big splits this year. RHH have only a .209 wOBA while the left side has a .382 wOBA. Boston is projected for only four lefties, one of which is Jonathan Arauz. If Walker can get you to 12-15 DK, he’s a worthy investment.

Monkey Knife Fight Picks

The Indians and Padres have hit for us the last two nights so let’s keep it going! We’re heading to Philly today because Zach Eflin (don’t call me Efron) is pitching. The one thing Eflin cannot do is get lefty hitters out. They have racked up a .372 average, 1.181 OPS, .488 wOBA and a 2.89 HR/9 through 50 at-bats this season. With those kinds of ratios, it’s time to attack him with Nationals LHH!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.2

Brian Tulloch 5 years ago

written by Brian Tulloch

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.2

We kept the momentum rolling last night with four of our five pitchers performing very well! In Discord, we moved off Josh Lindblom after seeing some projected ownership and that proved to be the right call as he lagged behind everyone else. Tonight’s slate is a tough one to navigate. There’s a few pitchers of interest, but the salary seems pretty high. We might nee to look at pitching more as a product of the slate as opposed to just their salary. Either way, let’s jump in and figure out which pitcher’s are going to be worth it tonight in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.2!

Cash Options

Max Scherzer

Pitch Data – FB – 7th SL – 13th CH – 1st CT – 14th CB – 4th

This is clearly not the best spot for the pitch data for Scherzer, but given his price compared to others I’m not going to worry too much. It’s still Scherzer. He’s still the victim of a massive BABIP of .372 but the swinging strike rate is almost 16%. The K rate has really not suffered this year since it’s still at 34.4% overall.

The key most nights for Scherzer is the opposing lineup composition. Lefties have been an issue for power for years, but now they’re just hitting him all over. The average is .301, the wOBA is .365 and the HR/9 is 1.47. Philly has four projected lefties, including Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius. The other two lefties of Jay Bruce and Roman Quinn wouldn’t strike fear into me (though the three that can produce power are really fun one-offs) and Max is still under $10,500. He’s plug and play in cash with four starts of double digit K’s.

Triston McKenzie

Pitch Data – FB – 14th CB – 25th CH – 28th

McKenzie just fits too well with Scherzer in cash to ignore, let alone the matchup looks pretty nice as well. We’ve seen two starts from the young righty and they’ve been on the opposite end of the spectrum. One was 33 DK and one was 7, so there’s still some risk. McKenzie really didn’t pitch that poorly the last start and was only allowed 84 pitches. The Royals do have the 11th highest K rate to RHP this year so McKenzie should be able to take advantage of that.

In his two starts, the 34.2% K rate certainly stands out. Granted, one start came against the Tigers but that was also McKenzie’s debut. The 12.8% swinging strike rate is highly encouraging, as is the 33.3% hard hit rate The concern is the 52.4% fly ball rate, which always has the ability to get ugly. It’s too early to tell if this sticks, but LHH have had the best success so far with a .303 wOBA and both homers. KC has four lefties projected, but they are all under a .330 wOBA to RHP since last year.

GPP Option

Walker Buehler

Pitch Data – FB – 29th CT – 7th CB – 13th SL – 6th

Since pricing is a little tough, I feel strongly on the Scherzer and McKenzie pair in cash. However, there’s a handful of pivots that I’m interested in as well. Buehler stands out as a perfect pivot to Max since they are virtually the same price. Since Buehler only missed one start, he shouldn’t be extremely limited here. The last time we saw him he was routing the Rockies to the tune of 35 DK points.

It’s been a rough year for Buehler with a 4.32 ERA and a 4.71 FIP. The 1.80 HR/9 is a massively different mark for Buehler and it’s very out of character. He leans on that fastball over 60% of the time so the pitch data might favor him a bit more than the surface looks. What could really work for Buehler tonight is the K rate to the LHH. It sits at 32.6% with a 2.56 FIP. Arizona has seven projected lefties tonight, leaving Buehler with some serious ceiling.

Dinelson Lamet

Pitch Data – FB – 27th SL – 14th

Lamet is typically a cash game staple for me but he actually got priced up for once. I’m still interested in him on MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.2. He hasn’t gone past five innings the past two games and that is a small concern, but the pitch data looks good for him. The fears are the Angels are second in walk rate at 12% and Lamet walks 9% of the hitters he faces and can be a little wild. Also, while he has a 32.9% K rate, the Angels are under 22% as a team.

The other really concerning part is the fly ball rate Lamet displays. He’s at 47.1% and as a team, the Angels are leading the league at a 41.7% fly ball rate themselves. This start could go really well for Lamet if he has his control, but could get really ugly as well. I have no interest in cash tonight.

Zac Gallen

Pitch Data – FB – 2nd CT – 3rd CB – 1st CH – 16th

This is not a good matchup on paper for about any pitcher in the majors, but Gallen has faced this gauntlet once. He walked away with 23 DK points and nobody will play him tonight. Gallen has a good combo of not allowing hard contact or fly balls with both rates under 35% on the season.

The Dodgers lineup is ridiculous up and down, but if you have a preference, you’d like the pitcher to be slightly better vs LHH. That’s the case for Gallen with a .261 wOBA and .195 average. The K rate drops but if he can whiff some of the righties lower in the order and survive the top, it’s not unthinkable to get another 23 DK from him tonight.

Monkey Knife Fight Picks

The Padres take on Julio Teheran tonight, and to say Teheran has been poor is a massive understatement. LHH alone have a .483 wOBA through 37 hitters and RHH are at .354. The Padres should be in line for a big night and if Eric Hosmer happens to not start, Mitch Moreland should. He could slide right in.

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.1

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.1

Yesterday was mostly solid once again as the two main pitchers in Shane Bieber and Tyler Glasnow both were right around 60 DK points combined. We might not have four pitchers that can combine for that score tonight. Yesterday the options were fairly pricey, but at least they were trustworthy. Those style of options are in relatively short supply tonight. That doesn’t mean we don’t have some really fun options so let’s get to work on MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.1!

Cash Options

Aaron Nola

Pitch Data – FB – 17th CH – 4th CB -12th

I’ll admit, I’m not exactly the biggest fan of Nola over $10,000 but I would guess he carries pretty heavy ownership in cash settings, especially on DK. He did just score 27.6 last game against this same team, but the Nationals are not typically a team I attack. They have the third-lowest K rate to RHP and a top 12 mark in wOBA.

The flip side is Nola is a very talented pitcher. His K rate has spiked to 34.8%, which is a little over 8% his career mark. Nola is generating a healthy 12.7% swinging strike rate. He has never allowed a fly ball rate over 32.4% his entire career, and that’s in line this season as well. One aspect that’s worth noting as well – he has a 2.05 ERA at home through 26.1 IP this season with just a .196 wOBA. I’m likely to spend down in GPP tonight, but cash games I’m looking to ride with the ownership I expect.

Framber Valdez

Pitch Data – FB – 26th CB – 17th CH – 19th

I wanted to pitch Valdez on Sunday, but that was not to be. Instead, we’ll turn to him tonight in what shapes up to be an excellent spot for him. The pitch data is a check mark in his favor since the Rangers are bottom half vs all three pitches. Valdez has really been a big part of the Astros rotation this year, and they needed it. He’s compiled a 2.35 ERA with a FIP and xFIP both under 2.85 to back that up. The K rate has jumped to a career-high 26% while the walks have gone to a career-low 5.8%. When he’s not whiffing hitters, the fly ball rate is just 17.6%.

From the Texas standpoint, they strike out the seventh-most times against LHP and rank second in ground ball rate. That really plays directly into what Valdez has been doing well this year and the price doesn’t reflect his outcome tonight. He’s taken out the Angels twice, A’s and at Coors Field. Valdez is a really nice fit in all formats tonight.

GPP Options

Ian Anderson

Pitch Data – FB – 11th CH – 10th CB – 8th

Anderson really can’t be a cash option against the Red Sox, but I am quite interested. Anytime we get a prospect in the top 50 in all of baseball under $7,000, I’m interested. When he’s coming off a debut that he flirted with a no-hitter for awhile, all the better. Anderson generated a respectable 11.1% swinging strike rate in that first start. It does have to be said that his 2019 AAA numbers were atrocious in 24.2 IP, but it’s not uncommon to see improvements at the major league level.

If playing Anderson, you’re hoping that he can exploit the 24.6% K rate the Red Sox have shown to RHP so far this year. Despite the big names they boast, Boston is just about average to slightly below in every major offensive category we value. Surely they can spring up and hit any pitcher any given night, but this is a spot worth a gamble at Anderson’s salary.

Zach Plesac

Pitch Data – FB – 13th SL – 16th CH – 24th CB – 22nd

Plesac is returning from his “banishment” from the Indians roster and is walking into a pretty solid spot. He’s only started three games this season but tallied a 1.29 ERA with a 2.37 FIP to match. The K rate was an excellent 31.2% while the walk rate was only 2.6%. His swinging strike rate also took a significant leap from 9.5% in 2019 to 13.5% this season.

The Royals are a top 12 K rate team at 24.4% so far this year and there’s nothing in the pitch data that should be all that scary. The Royals also rank 24th and 26th in OPS and wOBA, so this should be a fine night to use Plesac. My only hesitation in cash would be he’s had an extended break, and that could have negative effects. I’d prefer Valdez in cash but wouldn’t fight if you went Plesac.

Josh Lindblom

Pitch Data – No pitch is used over 33%

This is perhaps the riskiest play of MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.1. Lindblom is really all over the board on pitch usage with a fastball, slider, cutter, curve, change and split-finger. He’s under $7,000 and you’re playing him hoping he can strike out enough hitters to make it worth it, because he’s going to give up runs. You could argue he’s due for some positive regression. The ERA is an awful 6.31 but the FIP is 4.50 and the xFIP is 3.88. With a BABIP of .356 and a HR/9 of 1.75, it’s easy to see why the results and metrics haven’t matched up yet.

The K rate of 31.6% is what interests me here. Detroit still leads the league in K rate at 28.6% so this is the perfect spot for Lindblom in the K metrics. The Tigers have been better offensively lately, grinding their way to an average ranking the past two weeks. This spot is certainly not risk-free, but the K upside makes it worth a shot.

Monkey Knife Fight Picks

Since this is a pitching based article, we don’t talk about offenses too much unless we’re attacking them. Hop over to Monkey Knife Fight and sign up using promo code “WinDaily” to receive a deposit match up to $50 AND receive 3 MONTHS FREE to Win Daily’s GOLD Membership!

Matt Harvey is on the mound tonight and since he’s not remotely in play for us, I’m looking to the Indians tonight. Harvey has given up a wOBA of at least .403 to each side of the plate in his 5.2 IP so far and he’s not a major league pitcher at this juncture. Go Indians!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.31

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.31

We kept the ball rolling yesterday as all six pitchers were solid on the mound! Do we get bonus points for wanting to play Deivi Garcia? I’m asking for a friend. It’s me, I’m the friend. Garcia was excellent in his big league debut and only would have cost us $4,000. I had a plan to use Garcia and Dane Dunning. They would have combined for 47.8 DK points for just $8,500. The Yankees deprived us of that but we’re on to Monday night. We have some really interesting options at various price points tonight so let’s go to work for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.31!

Cash Options

Shane Bieber

Pitch Data – FB – 11th CB – 23rd CT – 12th SL – 18th

I’m not sure there’s much else to say about Bieber through seven starts. He has a 1.35 ERA, 1.67 FIP and 1.57 xFIP. The K rate is 42.9% and the walk rate is only 5.1%. His fly ball rate is only 26.7% and hitters swing and miss 18.6% of the time. There is not a single statistical reason to not go after Bieber as the lock in cash games tonight, especially with the Royals sporting a 24% K rate as a team.

Tyler Glasnow

Pitch Data – FB – 5th CB – 15th

The name “Yankees” might score some folks for cash, but $8,400 on DK for a pitcher that has a 39.4% K rate is underpriced. New York’s projected lineup includes Mike Tauchman, Mike Ford, Tyler Wade and Brett Gardner. Due respect to these major league players, but that’s not murderer’s row. Additionally, Glasnow is facing a projected five LHH tonight. He strikes out that side of the plate 41.4% and only gives up a .270 wOBA.

Glasnow screams positive regression through his 28 IP. His BABIP is .345, compared to .265 last season. The ERA is inflated at 5.14 but the FIP is 3.52 and the xFIP is 2.75. The walk rate is a concern at 11.5% and New York does walk plenty. Still, the strikeout upside at this salary is just too much to ignore. He just faced the Yanks two starts ago and scored 21.8 DK on just 88 pitches.

GPP Options

Lucas Giolito

Pitch Data – FB – 24th CH – 7th SL – 23rd

It’s pretty difficult to find any pitcher under Glasnow’s salary in cash tonight, so I’ll be more likely to work around a Bieber/Glasnow pair than anything else. Giolito is right in the mix himself, coming into this game on absolute fire. The last two games have produced just three hits, two walks and 26 strikeouts through 16 IP.

The negative is the matchup itself since the Twins lineup can give anyone issues. They waxed Giolito in the season opener for seven earned runs so he’s going to be eager for some revenge. I’m not overly worried coming off a no-hitter since he only threw 101 pitches. Minnesota is top half of the league in all major offensive categories, but they also whiff the seventh-most vs RHP.

Max Fried

Pitch Data – FB – 13th SL – 16th CB – 5th

It’s not often we chase a lefty vs the Red Sox but Fried is so talented I’m not that averse to it. It’s very difficult to get a ball into the air on him since he’s only given up a 25.7% fly ball rate so far. The hard hit rate is also very low at 31.7% to go with a 12.0% swinging strike rate.

Boston is decidedly average though the offensive categories we look at, which does help Fried out a little bit. The 21.2% K rate for the Sox isn’t high at all but if Fried can go six or seven strong with five whiffs and one or two earned, he’s going to pay off. The 1.35 ERA and 2.28 FIP isn’t an accident.

Trevor Williams

Pitch Data – FB – 28th SL – 27th CH – 22nd

I’ll be upfront and say I’m not a big fan of this play but Williams can actually produce some decent games. He also has the tendency that when things get bad, they get bad so he’s a GPP only special. We’ve been picking on the Brewers all year and I don’ see much that has changed.

They are third in K rate at 27.4% and bottom 10 everywhere else. They are also seventh in ground ball rate and that’s huge for Williams. He’s scaled back his sinker usage to just 7% this year after 14% last year. He’s not a good pitcher, but four of his six starts have ended with more than 12 DK points. I’d take that tonight.

Monkey Knife Fight Picks

We don’t get to talk about Coors Field in a pitching article, so we’ll use them on MKF! We have a lefty Padre since German Marquez has a massive weakness to LHH and Cronenworth has hit .361 this year. For the Rockies, facing Garrett Richards shouldn’t be much of an issue so we’ll just pick two of their best hitters!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.30

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.30

Well we can start right off the bat by being very happy pitching is FAR better on paper than yesterday. Frankly, Saturday was a tire fire and it was when we first opened up the slate. Sunday looks light years better and is way more exciting. There’s a few options at seemingly every tier, including at the top today so let’s get after it in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.30!

Cash Game Options

Kenta Maeda

Pitch Data – SL – 25th CH – 12th FB – 2nd

Maeda also throws in a curveball and a cutter for fun, but not over 4% for either pitch. I assumed one of the biggest changes for Maeda this season was the Twins letting him pitch deep into games. He’s averaging about six innings per start. Last year with the Dodgers, it was 5.8 which is surprising. The biggest change is the K and BB rates, which have gone up and down respectively. Maeda’s 2.21 ERA is backed up by a 2.59 FIP and a 2.86 xFIP as well.

It’s quite nice to see Maeda getting a 15.7% swinging strike rate, which is the highest of his career. He’s also striking out RHH at a 35.4% clip and the Tigers are projected to have six in the lineup today. The pitch data matchup is surprisingly mediocre, but this is a spot where the talent of Maeda should come through. Detroit still leads MLB in K rate to RHP and we shouldn’t overthink this one.

Blake Snell

Pitch Data – FB – 24th CH – 24th CB – 18th

Now that Snell has worked his pitch count up, we can count on him in cash and he’s coming off back to back starts of 90+ pitches. He’s struck out 12 over the past 10.2 IP and the K rate overall is 33.3%, identical to last season. Snell has even cut the walks down just a bit at 7.3%, which is a career-low. The swinging strike rate is a bit low for him at 14.7% but that’s more than respectable overall.

Miami sits at the third highest K rate to LHP at 28% and are 26th or worse in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Snell has a 3.04 ERA that is almost perfectly matched by the xFIP at 3.05 (FIP is 4.07 but that doesn’t sound alarm bells). He’s really rounding into form and is slightly underpriced for his current pitch count.

Brandon Woodruff

Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 15th CH – 25th

One of the better pitch data matchups on the board today, especially since Woodruff throws the fastball 65% of the time. I initially thought about putting Woodruff in GPP. He’s had a small run of not going further than five innings in three of his last four starts. Then I remembered he faces the Pirates and he moved into cash consideration pretty easily.

The last time Woodruff faced the Buccos, he racked up 10 strikeouts and a season-best 37 DK points. I can’t guarantee that result today but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities. His swinging strike rate is 12.9%, a career-high and the overall K rate is 27.3%. Woodruff also whiffs both sides of the plate relatively equally so the splits aren’t a big concern. Five of the projected Pirates starters have a K rate of 23.7% or higher and the price is right for Woodruff.

GPP Options

Dane Dunning

Pitch Data – FB – 11th SL – 17th

I had thoughts of Dunning in cash, but that might be too much of a risk to take. The price is just so low for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.30. He is less expensive than right about 55 hitters today, so the temptation is severe. Dunning was a bit of a mixed bag in his first start against the Tigers. He whiffed seven but gave up three earned over 4.1 IP. That was still worth 14.2 DK and is a home run from a hitter. You don’t get pitchers this cheap, especially ones that actually could strike out hitters.

The Royals are a different matchup as far as K rate than Detroit, sitting at 23.6%. They are 20th or worse in OBP, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ so there is potential from that end. Dunning was a top-five prospect for the White Sox last year so there’s some pedigree involved here. The 23.3% swinging strike rate is intriguing, although the 18.2% barrel rate is scary. The bottom line is Dunning opens up whichever offense you want, so this is a risk worth looking at.

Luis Castillo

Pitch Data – FB – 18th CH – 14th SL – 29th

It’s hard to say use Castillo over Snell given each matchup, but that makes Castillo a prime GPP target is Snell is much more popular. We know that the Cubs are a dangerous offense, sitting in the top 12 in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS, slugging and OBP. The weakness is they’re 24th in batting average and second in K rate at 27.6%. Castillo has only given up a 0.28 HR/9 through 32.1 IP so he could hold down the best facets of the Cubs offense.

Something that really sticks out for Castillo is the .400 BABIP, which is insanely high. That helps explain why the ERA of 3.62 is so much higher than the FIP at 2.06 and the xFIP at 3.10. With a career-best K rate of 31.0%, it’s not hard to see the ceiling that Castillo has today even if he’s not the prototypical cash game option today.

Framber Valdez

~~Pitch Data – FB – 13th SL – 18th~~

Valdez has been a revelation for the Astros this year, being their second-best starter by the numbers. I don’t normally attack the A’s with lefty pitching, but Valdez has been phenomenal this season. His starts have included vs the Angels twice, Mariners, A’s and in Coors Field. The lowest DK ~~output in those starts? It was 20.7 DK points against the Mariners.~~

Valdez has been excellent in tougher matchups and the A’s are a top-four K rate team to LHP this year at 26.0%. Valdez has massively cut his walk rate from 13.4% in 2019 to 5.8% so far in 38.1 IP this year. The ERA of 2.35 is matched by the FIP and xFIP being under 2.85 each. Perhaps the craziest part of his production is it has come with just a 9.7% swinging strike rate and a .307 BABIP. There’s actually room for more and he’s really cheap for his production so far.

Deivi Garcia

~~Pitch Data – N/A~~

Garcia is making his major league debut today for the Yankees and he’s even cheaper than Dunning. The risk here is intense but he’s the cheapest we ever get a starting pitcher and if he hits 10 DK, it’s well worth it. Through 40 IP in AAA last year, he posted a 25.3% K rate along with an 11.2% walk rate. He was better to LHH with just a .216 average and .667 OPS given up. That’s a big plus against the Mets.

Garcia’s main calling cards are his curve (Mets rank 23rd) and the big fastball (16th) and the curve has a major spin rate, according to an MLB.com scouting report. I’m always willing to chase talent when it’s cheap and we could conceivably spend $8,500 on a pitching duo today. You could really play a Frankenstein offense after that!

Tony Gonsolin

Pitch Data – FB – 27th SF – 12th

We’re on take three for a GPP option, so this is going to be a quick one. Gonsolin has yet to be scored on this year but the 2.12 FIP is still more than solid. Sure, he’s not going to boast a 100% strand rate forever but Gonsolin is a solid arm. He’s racked up a 2.14 ERA and a 22.9% K rate through 54.2 IP at the major league level.

Texas isn’t a huge K team but 22.5% isn’t sparkling either. Gonsolin’s has given up a whopping .143 wOBA to the LHH so far and I like to see that vs the Rangers. Five of their projected lineup are on the left side of the plate. With Woodruff being cheaper in a better spot, Gonsolin won’t get a ton of ownership.

Monkey Knife Fight Picks

The Nationals and Red Sox both get amazing matchups today. Zac Godley and Austin Voth are on the mound so we’re going after them. Voth is giving up a .403 wOBA to LHH so Devers is the perfect fit. Godley is just poor to everyone so we’ can pick two stars from the Nationals lineup with ease!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB GPP Picks 8/30

billyr011199@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by billyr011199@gmail.com

MLB GPP Picks 8/30

In this article I will be breaking down MLB GPP Picks 8/30. I will inform you with at least one player per position that strikes my interest and If I am interested in a player on only one site, I will be site specific. I will be using DraftKings pricing for this article.

For this MLB GPP Picks 8/30 afternoon slate we will have a ten-game slate to breakdown. The Boston vs Washington game has a projected total of 11 ½ currently which will likely be the largest for this slate. Interesting pricing on pitchers for this slate as no one is priced above 10K and Kenta Maeda is your highest priced pitcher at $9,600. There doesn’t appear to be any weather that to keep an eye on but in case that changes head over to the Discord Chat rooms as myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff stays updated on all news and we solidify our top plays as lineups are confirmed.

Pitcher

Blake Snell – ($9,200)

Finally eclipsing one hundred pitches this season, Snell has shaken his restrictions and appears to have found himself recording nine strikeouts last outing. The Marlins have been awful against left-handed pitching with seven hitters above a 20% K rate and only one hitter with an ISO above .150. With a 33.3% strikeout rate and nearly a 15% swinging strike percentage allows Snell to have huge upside with this matchup.

Catcher

Jacob Nottingham – ($2,300)

Nottingham being a young player that just got called up my biggest concern would be strikeouts. Lucky for Nottingham the opposing pitcher Steven Brault fails to miss bats with a strikeout rate of just 14.1% this season, only getting swinging strikes on 6% of his pitches, and a contact rate of 83.2%. I love this spend down spot for a cheap catcher.

1^st base

Mitch Moreland – ($4,700)

Moreland has mauled right-handed pitching this season with an eye-opening ISO of .509, a wOBA of .518, flyball rate of 52.5%, and a hard hit rate of 57.5%. The opposing pitcher Austin Voth has given up a 50% hard hit rate to left-handed hitters this season, while missing few bats. This is a plus matchup for Moreland today.

2^nd base

Nick Madrigal – ($2,500)

I’m a big fan of the White Sox facing left-handed pitchers and Madrigal provides some salary relief and can be used with Tim Anderson. Madrigal won’t have to do much to pay off this price tag, as if he gets his first extra base hit that would about get him there. I especially like him because he will likely bat ninth and Tim Anderson bats leadoff, so you get the wrap around the lineup.

Short Stop

Tim Anderson – ($5,500)

Anderson is a tough guy to pass up based upon his success this season against left-handed pitching. Against lefties Anderson has a massive ISO of .786, a wOBA of .764, and a hard-hit percentage of 73.5%. Facing a left-handed pitcher that carries a poor hit percentage of just 1.9% and a swinging strike percentage of only 8.5%. Given this matchup Anderson should have success as much of the White Sox lineup should as they rake left-handed pitching this season.

3^rd base

Rafael Devers – ($4,700)

Obviously, the same pitching matchup applies here as Moreland and the stats against left-handed hitters. 41% of baseballs hit in play for Voth have an exit velocity above 95 MPH. Devers has seen right-handed pitching better as he has a soft contact percentage of 6.3% and a hard-hit percent of 50%. This game has a high total so you want pieces from it and I will focus on some Boston lefties.

Juan Soto – ($5,700)

As good of a match-up as you can get for Soto, facing Godley who has given a 44.3% hard hit rate this season. Godley also has a walk rate of above 10% so there should be plenty of scoring opportunities for Washington as this game has a high total. Soto has smashed right-handed pitching with an ISO of .391, a wOBA of .525, and a hard-hit percentage of 63.9%. Soto should have a productive game against Boston today.

That will finish my weekend and this slate of MLB GPP Picks 8/30. Ownership for pitching should be spread out today as several options at the top are viable and none are too spendy. It is a slightly bigger Sunday slate as in the past we’ve had seven or eight game slates now we have ten. With more games we have more lineups and weather to watch so be sure to join myself and the WinDaily staff in the Discord chat rooms as we lock our picks when lineups and weather news trickles in. Thanks for reading my article, enjoy your Sunday morning, and good luck I hope you take down a GPP!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.29

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.29

Last night’s slate was full of good picks led by Marlins starter Sixto Sanchez and Brewers starter Corbin Burnes, who both exceeded 30 DK at lower ownership. The only real miss was Triston McKenzie and I wish he had been allowed to come back out for the fifth. Regardless, it’s a new day. MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.29 doesn’t have near the same options but we’ll sift through to find who we like tonight!

Cash Game Options

Dylan Bundy

Pitch Data – FB – 25th SL – 24th CH – 27th CB – 21st

I don’t think we’ve said this often through his career, but Bundy might well be the safest option on this entire slate. He’s come back down to Earth a little bit his past two starts but he was due some type of regression. Bundy still boasts a K rate nearing 29% and a swinging strike rate of 12.7%. Seattle has been better the best couple weeks but still has a K rate over 23%.

The one aspect that really sticks out against Bundy is Seattle is projected for seven LHH in their lineup tonight. That would be an issue since Bundy’s K rate to LHH is only 22.2% and the wOBA is .304. I believe the ownership in cash games is high, so it’s worth riding the chalk. However, with the volatility of pitching overall tonight, he might be a fade for me in GPP.

Brett Anderson

Pitch Data – FB – 30th CH – 23rd CT – 20th

To say Anderson is not normally in cash consideration is an understatement. I’m not even a big fan of this pick in general, but we have a very limited pool tonight. Anderson lives on ground balls, generating over 62% so far this year. The swinging strike rate of 7.6% leads you right into his 17.5% K rate. That’s not great at all but it’s actually Anderson’s highest mark since 44 IP in 2013.

Pittsburgh isn’t a huge ground ball rate team or K rate (21.8%) to LHP but they’re still not a very dangerous offense in general. Despite being top 12 in average and OBP, they rank average or worse in OPS, ISO and wOBA. Given Anderson’s price tag, we’re hoping for 12-15 DK and not a blowup start here. This is almost certainly my cash combo as I can’t get behind any option more than Anderson.

GPP Options

Lance Lynn

Pitch Data – FB – 1st SL – 11th

Normally Lynn would be a feature in cash, especially on a smaller slate. Normally, he’s not facing the Dodgers. Not only are they the number one team vs the fastball, Lynn throws it over 71% of the time. It’s not a great spot, needless to say. Did I mention that the Dodgers have the lowest K rate to RHP in baseball as well?

A really good pitcher like Lynn can go out there on any given night and shut down even a great offense. He still does have a 28.1% K rate and a hard hit rate of just 35.1%. Lynn could also mute the Dodgers power with just a 0.99 HR/9 and he’s better to LHH with a .197 wOBA. It’s just always dangerous to go against the Dodgers.

Justus Sheffield

Pitch Data – FB – 26th SL – 12th CH – 17th

At first glance, Sheffield seemed like a pretty poor choice. However, there’s actually a strong statistical case so far to pitch him. I had assumed the Angels would be quite good to LHP but so far, that’s not the case. They rank no higher than 25th in average, OBP, OPS, wOBA or wRC+. Even the ISO is only 20th, which is a surprising development for a team with Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon.

Sheffield has cut his walks down to 7.3% from 10.7% in 2019, which is a positive step for a young pitcher. We also like the fly ball rate of just 25.6%, even if we could live without the 47.4% hard hit rate. Sheffield is by no means safe but has pitched better lately and has a FIP of 2.55 or under to each side of the plate. Given that LA is top 10 in K rate to LHP at 23.9%, Sheffield could be pretty sneaky here.

JT Brubaker

Pitch Data – FB – 28th SL – 27th CB – 14th

We only have a 15 IP sample size, so let’s not get crazy here. However, Brubaker has flashed a little bit of K upside in his last start. It’s 23.5% overall which is really not that shabby. Milwaukee is still in the top three in K rate to RHP at 27.6% so the matchup is worth chasing.

Brubaker has seen his pitch count climb to 76 and he should be over 80 tonight if everything is going well. His ERA is 4.80 but the FIP is 3.49 so maybe he’s been slightly unlucky. The .326 BABIP would back up that theory as well. If there’s a time to take a chance with a pitcher that’s under $6,000 in a great matchup, it’s really this slate for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.29.

Monkey Knife Fight Picks

Since this is a pitching based article, we haven’t talked about Coors Field yet but we all know that’s where the popular offenses are going to be tonight. It’s a great time to sign up with our link to monkeyknifefight.com and make some bets yourself!

Neither the Padres or the Rockies are throwing their best starters on the hill, so let’s take advantage of it! I’m betting on Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado against any LHP in Coors and Fernando Tatis may well be the NL MVP. I’ll take them to go over 15.5 fantasy points tonight!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.28

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.28

It appears we’ll back in action tonight with what is listed as a 12 game slate. Given the past couple days, I highly encourage you to be around Discord for any potential updates as they roll in. We’ll do our best to keep everyone posted on what’s happening. The 12 games offers us a pretty full gamut of pitchers today so let’s get after it in the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.28!

Cash Game Options

Max Scherzer

Pitch Data – FB – 23rd SL – 18th CH – 12th

Mad Max also throws a curve and a cutter but they are under 10% each. Scherzer isn’t quite his normal self here so far this season. So far though six starts (really five since one was only an inning), he’s seen some regression. The ERA is up and it’s mirrored by a rise in FIP and xFIP. His HR/9 is currently at a high water mark of his career at 1.44. The walk rate is also at the highest it’s ever been at 9.5% while the K rate is the lowest since 2016. Granted, it’s still at 32.1% but it’s noticeable.

The common thought would be “it’s a small sample” and it’s not like Scherzer hasn’t been really good. He just hasn’t quite been the Scherzer we’ve seen for year. I’m always a little more cautious with older guys like Max with a ton of mileage, including a World Series run last year. Boston has the 11th highest K rate to RHP so Scherzer is the cash pitcher of the night. I believe we have other options and I will likely be underweight outside of that format.

Zac Gallen

Pitch Data – FB – 19th CT – 26th CB – 30th CH – 13th

If you’re a person who locks in the two best pitchers on the slate on DraftKings and then builds the bats, Gallen is your man to go with Scherzer. I was very impressed with his last start, even though it was under 20 DK. He loaded up the bases in the first, throwing 12 of his first 15 pitches for strikes. That was about all he gave up the rest of the way, pitching six innings of one run ball.

Gallen is pretty even in his splits, with neither side having a wOBA over .277 on the year. Even against the Giants who have a lefty heavy lineup, the 26% K rate to LHH still projects pretty well for Gallen. He’s flirting with a 13% swinging strike rate so the 29.4% overall seems here to stay. It’s wise to eat Scherzer chalk but Gallen could rival his score on this slate.

Corbin Burnes

Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 17th CT – 23rd CB – 29th SF – 25th

I don’t have any real qualms with Zach Wheeler or even a Kyle Hendricks for safety, but I’m not a huge fan of the price. Generally, I want to feature the cheapest option for cash and Burnes is that choice tonight. He does not have a game under double digit DK points in four starts and has been over 15 in three of them. The pitch data is elite against the Pirates, along with about every other major category we value.

I wil point out that Burnes is not the prototypical cash pitcher. The 14.7% walk rate is scary, but mitigated by the Pirates having the lowest walk rate in the majors. We do love the 33% K rate for Burnes and the 14.5% swinging strike rate. The stuff isn’t a problem for him at all. He strikes out both sides of the plate evenly and Pittsburgh has moved into the top 10 in K rate. This is a cheap source of strikeouts that has some of his negatives muted by the matchup.

GPP Options

Triston McKenzie

Pitch Data – FB – 18th CB – 26th

I can only hope McKenzie gives us the same results for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.28 that he gave us last time with 33 DK. We can’t be overly sure on the pitch mix for McKenzie based off one start, but his two main pitches are a good matchup here. He was evil in his first career start, racking up 10 strikeouts in six innings and only giving up a solo homer. The Cards aren’t a giant K rate team to RHP but 22.5% is plenty good for the price range. The bottom line is he’s been a touted prospect in the past and he showed poise, talent and ceiling in his first start. I’m more than happy to play him again.

Sixto Sanchez

Pitch Data – FB – 20th SL – 5th CH – 5th

Another young buck who can throw fire, Sanchez does draw a tough matchup on the pitch data side of things. Despite having a big fastball, he’s never been a giant strikeout pitcher and Tampa is under 24% as a team in K rate. He handled LHH far better than RHH in his first start, and that would be key against the Rays if it holds up. hey are projected for six lefties tonight so that could favor Sanchez. He’s just like McKenzie. There’s not much data and he’s a grab bag of outcomes, but he’s under $6,000 and is very talented. Just understand what you’re getting into when playing him.

Ryan Yarbrough

Pitch Data – FB – 16th CT – 19th CH – 23rd

The lefty for the Rays hasn’t exactly found his footing yet, but he couldn’t ask for a better spot than tonight to get going. He threw 97 pitches last start so that’s not a concern and the Marlins scuffle vs LHP. They sit third in K rate at 27.7%. Additionally, they don’t rank higher than 23rd in average, OPS, OBP, slugging, wOBA or wRC+.

Yarbrough’s price really is favorable tonight for someone that can go dip into a ball game and has a great matchup. The K rate should come up form 15.9% based on his history, and his swinging strike rate of 13.3% is easily the highest of his career. It’s just a matter of time before he puts together a 20 DK game and it could well be tonight.

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

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