MLB DFS

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.13

It’s funny because I mentioned that Zac Gallen might have a rough start coming soon. I didn’t expect it to be last night by any stretch. Also, I didn’t expect he’d get hammered in such a fashion. It was a very tough slate for pitching last night, to be sure. One quick glance tells you that MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.13 isn’t any better because there is not a single pitcher on DK priced over $9,000. We have our work cut out for us.

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For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Micheal Pineda

Pitch Data – FB – 27th SL – 29th CH – 18th

That’s how rough this slate is for pitching. Michael Pineda, he of a career 4.02 ERA and 13 IP this season leads the pack. This could be a first for Pineda, who is almost exclusively a GPP pitcher but not today. He’s been good in his 13 IP, with a 24% K rate and the pitch data really favors him. The hard contact has been spectacular so far at just 25.7% and the swinging strike rate is 15.7%.

Now we add in the Indians have been a weak offense to RHP all season and we have one of the better matches on the slate. The fact that Pineda has thrown 81 and 104 pitches is excellent for us as well. It’s odd to get excited about, but Pineda makes the most sense in cash today.

Sixto Sanchez

Pitch Data – FB – 6th CH – 2nd SL – 20

This is really just salary disrespect for Sixto at this point. He’s faced challenges already and has three of four starts above 18 DK, which is great return for this price. If you haven’t actually seen him yet, this kid is NASTY.

Philly doesn’t strike out a ton at 21% but I honestly don’t fear that in this spot. Good pitching wins more nights than it doesn’t. Sixto is good with a 26.6% K rate and a 14.4% swinging strike rate. Even if he wasn’t this talented, price alone would dictate we look at him in a big way today. In case you needed any extra juice, Sixto is an ex-Phillie. All the revenge today folks. Get aboard the Brian Tulloch Narrative Train.

Charlie Morton

Pitch Data – FB – 12th CB – 2nd

It’s not been a good year for Ol’ Ground Chuck. He’s only pitched 23.2 innings and things have gone poorly with a 4.94 ERA. The HR/9 has jumped up to 1.14 which is high for him and the K rate is down to 22.6%. This could be a spot he finds his footing a bit, since the Red Sox are flirting with a 25% K rate to RHP.

They also are above average in most offensive categories so this is still a dangerous setting for Morton. The good for Morton is the only two LHH that really scare you are Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo. If he can get by them, he’s got RHH under a .300 wOBA and hasn’t given up a bomb. He’s under $8,000 and should approach 80 pitches. That’s good enough for me today.

Jonathan Stiever

Pitch Data – N/A, but throws a FB, CB, CH and SL

Let’s get a little nuts in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.13. Stiever isn’t a name many outside White Sox fans and prospect gurus know (raises hand) but it doesn’t take much to find glowing words about him. He was ranked as the number five White Sox prospect before this year started. Ahead of him? Luis Robert, Michael Kopech, Andrew Vaughn and Nick Madrigal. That’s some good company.

He’s the cheapest we ever get a pitcher and debuts are a total grab bag. However, I love taking chances on talented kids when they get great matchups to start and this fits the bill. Detroit still leads the league in K% to RHP at over 28% and Stiever has displayed at least a 24% K rate at every stop so far (which hasn’t been many). This article from mlb.com gives some more background but this is an excellent gamble to take at salary.

Monkey Knife Fight

The Yankees and the Orioles both face lefties on the mound, which definitely leads us to like some hitters. We start with two Yanks, DJ LeMahieu and Luke Voit. Both hitters are over .400 for the wOBA and Voit sports a .344 ISO. DJ Stewart for the Orioles was just white hot before two quiet games. This is a good spot to get back at it. Through 51 plate appearances, he has a 1.275 OPS, .528 ISO and a .507 wOBA.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.12

It was another solid day for the Rotation as everyone written up performed pretty well, even if Lucas Giolito didn’t quite match his outcome from last time out. He was uber chalk in cash but we did nail a complete game with Luis Castillo. The slate tonight is tougher. I’m writing as the Giants and Padres were postponed for a positive Covid case. That means we almost surely won’t have that game on this slate, knocking off Dinelson Lamet and Kevin Gausman. Tonight is not full of great options but let’s find out who we like the most for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.12!

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit. 

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Zac Gallen

Pitch Data – FB – 23rd CT – 9th CB – 23rd CH – 22nd

Especially if the Giants game is PPD, Gallen is going to be the lock chalk in cash. He may have been anyways as he continues his breakout campaign. The ERA does continue to be over a run better than his xFIP and FIP which means he could have a rough start coming soon. Having said that, his 27.9% K rate and 12.1% swinging strike rate are great matches tonight.

Seattle has actually come down in K rate to only 22.5%, which is a significant improvement from he start of the season. The good news is they are still below average in ISO, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ so Gallen should be able to prevent runs. He’s faced better offenses than the Mariners and come out with 20+ DK scores in those games. The fact that he controls the LHH to a .235 wOBA is in line with scoring that high tonight.

Kyle Hendricks

Pitch Data – FB – 20th CH – 19th CB – 9th

You know it’s a bit of a rough slate when we’re considering Hendricks in cash. He’s one of my least favorite pitchers for fantasy since he’s under 20% for his K rate (19.1%). That’s even more true when he’s flirting with $9,000 and this is really just a DK play for cash due to safety. The only time he’s faced the Brewers this year was his first start and it went for a CGSO and 45.5 DK.

Don’t expect that but the Brewers offense continues to be flat awful. They couldn’t even hit Jon Lester last night. What’s surprising is Hendricks has an 11.3% swinging strike rate, a career-high. With Milwaukee still whiffing at a 26.6% rate, I feel it’s best to just plug him in for cash and hope for the best ceiling.

Justus Sheffield

Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 5th CH – 30th

You can make an argument for Sheffield over Hendricks in cash and save $1,000. He does have a better K rate at 21.9% but has the worse matchup as Arizona only whiffs 21.6% of the time. Sheffield does have an easier path with Ketel Marte on the IL, but is not as trustworthy at this point.

He does have just a 0.48 HR/9 but the hard hit rate is a touch scary at 46%. He’s surviving it with a fly ball rate under 30% but all it takes is a couple balls to get elevated. His swinging strike rate is worse than Hendricks as well, at just 9.1%. Sheffield has shown upside with three of seven starts over 18DK. However, he’s had three under 10 DK as well so I prefer him in GPP.

Zach Plesac

Pitch Data – FB – 14th SL – 24th CH – 8th CB – 19th

This is possibly the most interesting spot for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.12. Plesac has been fantastic this season with a 1.32 ERA, but the xFIP is 3.20 and the FIP is 2.89. The strikeout and walk rates are really where it gets tricky. In 2019 through 115.2 IP, they were 18.5% and 8.4% each. This year in 34 IP, they have jumped to 27% and 1.6%. It really seems like the truth should be somewhere in the middle. The one metric that does support the K rate is the improvement on the swinging strike rate from 9.5% to 13.9%.

The Twins do have a top-eight strikeout rate to RHP at 24.7% so there is upside for Plesac. It’s important to remember that they are also sixth in OPS, fourth in ISO and sixth in wOBA. There’s definite downside as well so this is strictly a priced-based GPP pick.

Monkey Knife Fight

We’re heading to one of the marquee games on the slate for the Astros vs the Dodgers. Julio Urias takes the hill for the Dodgers and he faces some tough hitters. Both George Springer and Alex Bregman have a wOBA over .355 and ISO’s over .265, with Springer being at a .333 ISO. On the Dodgers side, they get a lefty as well and their bets hitter is A.J. Pollock with a 1.054 OPS, .333 ISO and a .425 wOBA.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.11

We took a night off last night and rain wreaked havoc with a lot of the pitching options on the slate. I’m not sure we really missed much of anything on Thursday and Wednesday was an unmitigated disaster. Let’s start fresh on this Friday and we definitely have some big names to sort through at the top of the salary range for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.11.

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit. 

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Lucas Giolito

Pitch Data – FB – 7th CH – 15th SL – 27th

Giolito should be the overwhelming favorite for cash, even with Shane Bieber on the slate (more on him in a few minutes). The matchups are far different and Giolito faces off against the offense that whiffs the most to RHP in the league at 28.5%. The one other time Giolito faced the Tigers this year? He racked up 43 DK points and struck out 13 hitters.

Even if he doesn’t hit that mark again, his 34.9% K rate and 17.9% swinging strike rate are phenomenal targets. Both the FIP and xFIP are under 3.00, suggesting his ERA could actually be a little lower. The HR/9 is a career-low 0.82 and the splits are about dead equal. There’s very little to quibble with here.

Kenta Maeda

Pitch Data – SL – 21st CH – 18th FB – 26th

Maeda has been rock solid all season and there’s not a ton of reasons to think it changes tonight. The righty has faced the Indians twice and has scores of 23.7 and 28.3 in those two starts. It’s not going to be super ideal to use Maeda and Giolito together because that doesn’t leave a ton of salary for bats but it can be done.

Nobody is making hard contact on Maeda with just a 24.8% rate and the fly balls are barely over 30% as well. Cleveland is 27th in hard hit rate vs RHP this year, so hat’s a huge check mark for Maeda. They also whiff 24% of the time and the 4.4% walk rate for Maeda means Cleveland likely can’t use their third-highest 11.7% walk rate either. The smart play is Giolito but Maeda looks quite safe as well.

Kris Bubic

Pitch Data – FB – 29th CH – 20th CB – 30th

It might seem odd to target a pitcher with an ERA approaching 5.00 inn cash, but let’s take a step back. Bubic has made seven starts and has faced the Cubs, the Twins twice and the White Sox three times. The fact he’s emerged with three double-digit DK scores is a miracle, frankly. All these teams have lefty mashers, even if the Cubs and Twins haven’t shown as much as should be expected. Pittsburgh is a little better to LHH but that just leaves them as a league-average offense.

The pitch data is incredible for Bubic and you won’t find it much better. The K rate for Bubic is only 20% but at his price you’re not going to need a ton of whiffs to pay off. He’s kept the fly balls low with only a 32.7% rate so I’m not sure the 1.54 HR/9 will stand up over time. We need someone to pair up with Giolito and if you choose salary for hitters, Bubic is my choice.

GPP Options

Shane Bieber

Pitch Data – FB – 14th CB – 20th CT – 28th SL – 24th

We’re going to be quick here and it’s really just the matchup. Bieber has waned the Twins this year with 29 DK and 46 DK so it’s not like he’s incapable, it’s just I’m picking on the Tigers if paying up in cash. The Biebs has been frighteningly dominant with a 42.9% K rate and a 17.6% swinging strike rate. The ERA, FIP and xFIP are all under 1.75. That’s simply absurd and I’d likely be heavier on Bieber in GPP than Giolito.

Luis Castillo

Pitch Data – FB – 15th CH – 29th SL – 20th

This will be the first time Castillo has faced the Cards and he’s had a weird season so far. The 3.95 ERA is way outside the 3.01 xFIP and 2.85 FIP. When that happens, I look to see if something stands out and the .387 BABIP fits the bill. That’s caused he strand rate to be only 67.3% which could be messing with some ratios. His K rate is a career-high 31.1% and the swinging strike rate is over 15%.

There’s going to be starts where it all comes together for Castillo, and this could easily be one of them. The Cards aren’t a giant K team, but they are almost dead last to the change. That’s the money pitch for Castillo and I’m very interested in him tonight as an alternative to the high end, bigger name pitchers. He might be a very sneaky play on MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.11.

Monkey Knife Fight

We can’t leave Friday’s slate without talking about it being #LesterDay! The Cubs southpaw is paying for being a fraud for a couple years now and is getting smashed with an ERA approaching 6.00. He’s given up a .362 wOBA, .858 OPS and 2.31 HR/9 to the right side of the plate. The Brewers have Avisail Garcia and Jedd Gyorko who both have ISO’s over .240 and wOBA’s over .435 to LHP. Keston Hirua is a K machine at nearly 40% but that’s less of a concern with Lester.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.9

Last night was a little rough since Walker Buehler was roundly awful and didn’t make it through three innings. Andrew Heaney really struggled but was so high-owned on DK cash he didn’t kill you. On the plus side, Lance Lynn and Sixto Sanchez both exceeded 20 DK even though Lynn hit three batters on the way to achieving it. This slate has some more varied options on paper and there are some heavy hitters on the high end of the salary range so let’s get to MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.9!

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit. 

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Yu Darvish

Pitch Data – CT – 20th FB – 19th SL – 29th CB – 28th

Darvish is the highest priced pitcher on the slate and it’s hard to argue. He’s been excellent and is in the discussion for a loaded NL Cy Young award. The ERA of 1.44 is matched by a tiny 2.01 FIP and 2.60 xFIP. The HR/9 is 0.54, the K rate is 33%, the swinging strike rate is 15.5%…Darvish has it all working this year.

Yesterday we saw the wind blow in at Wrigley and if Darvish gets that tonight, he’s even more appealing. Cincy is 11th in K rate, 19th in wOBA and OPS and 28th in average. They are sixth in ISO so there’s power in the lineup, but it may not matter if they can’t make contact.

Clayton Kershaw

Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 9th CB – 14th

Maybe comeback isn’t the right word, but it’s awfully close to describing this season for Kershaw. His K rate is the highest since 2016 and his walk rate is sill just 4.5%. The WHIP is back to 2016 levels and his fly ball rate is under 25%. Even the swinging strike rate is the best it’s been since 2017.

He just destroyed this Arizona lineup the last time out to the tune of six IP with eight strikeouts. The pitch count was at 99 so we should feel safe from that angle. Arizona is only at a 21.3% K rate but the lineup is weakened against LHP with Starling Marte in Miami. If you think both he and Darvish sit between 28-32 DK points, there’s not a lot of reason to not save the $1,000 and pitch Kershaw.

Dane Dunning

Pitch Data – FB – 29th SL – 20th

Dunning also throws a curve and a change, but has leaned on the fastball/slider combo about 88% of the time so far. Through his first 14 IP in the majors, Dunning has displayed K upside with a 30.5% rate. He also has a 2.79 FIP and 3.12 xFIP which are both lower than his 3.86 ERA. The swinging strike rate has been excellent at 17.5%, which makes me think that even with some regression the strikeout stuff is real.

Enter the matchup, which the Pirates are a soft one. They’re striking out over 25% of the time still. Additionally, they are dead last in OBP, OPS, ISO and wOBA. I think the best way to approach pitching on DK is picking one of Darvish or Kershaw (leaning the second) and pair him with Dunning to spend on bats.

GPP Options

Trevor Bauer

Pitch Data – FB – 25th CT – 1st SL – 22nd CB – 11th

I probably couldn’t mount a huge argument if you wanted to use Bauer for cash games, but I do feel Kershaw and Darvish are both safer. Bauer can get bit by the long ball on occasion and the Cubs do have the fourth-highest ISO to RHP and the sixth-highest OPS. What they have that makes this an appealing GPP spot for Bauer is the third-highest K rate at 25.9%.

Bauers’s walks are at a career-low 7.6% which is good because the Cubs are over 10% as a team. The fly ball rate of 46.2% could be an issue in Wrigley pending the weather. What it will come down to is how many LHH is in this lineup. The Cubs could put 5-6 in there and that’s where Bauer has struggled with the long ball at a 2.38 HR/9. We’ll see how the lineup and weather breaks, but a 30+ DK point game isn’t out of reach.

Zach Davies

Pitch Data – CH – 28th FB – 9th CT – 14th

I keep approaching Davies with caution, but he keeps right on producing. He’s gained 5.4% on the K rate this year to bring it up to 22.6% and the swinging strike rate is up, but still under 10%. He hasn’t picked up velocity and is still sitting under 90 MPH on his fastball and cutter. However, he does have about a 10 MPH difference in the changeup and that creates deception. That pitch is the best changeup vis FanGraphs rating in baseball. It’s a bit tough to explain the one reason why he’s been this good this year.

Having said that, he draws the Colorado on the road flowchart matchup and is under $9,000. They’re over the 27% threshold in K rate on the road, so they should help Davies’ average K rate. Davies has been remarkably consistent with seven of eight starts scoring at least 18 DK. People are likely to blow right by him for the big names in the upper tier, leaving Davies in what should be a great GPP spot.

Pablo Sanchez

Pitch Data – FB – 1st CH – 26th

Last but not least in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.9, we turn to Pablo Sanchez. Sanchez throws a cutter and a curve but he lives on the fastball/changeup duo. He’s starting to show some of the strikeout ability at 23.6% and has done a great job keeping the ball in the yard with just a 0.47 HR/9. That can be explained by the 20.2% fly ball rate, which is fifth-best among starting pitchers this year.

Atlanta isn’t exactly the best matchup for that metric at the sixth-fewest ground balls but they are also a top 12 team in K rate. The other fear is the splits to LHH. Sanchez does have some issue to LHH, with a .327 wOBA and just a 16.6% K rate. I’d like to see what the lineup looks like tonight. Last night there was only two lefties in the lineup. If they roll out seven RHH again, I want in on Sanchez’s 33% K rate to that side of the plate.

Monkey Knife Fight

Typically we have been talking offenses in this space, but I love one of the pitching plays on this slate. It’s quite expensive to play Darvish and Bauer together, so why not target them on MKF instead? I like both pitchers to go over their strikeout totals in this spot.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.8

Last night was once again mostly solid across the board, with Hyun Jon Ryu being the only real miss. My concerns with Max Scherzer were unfounded as he went for 31 DK. Likewise, Kevin Gausman and Zac Gallen had a pitchers duel on the West Coast and both smashed through the late night…until Gallen went backwards in a hurry giving up four earned. We’ll continue to try and make all the right pitches in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.8 and the options are spread all over the board tonight.

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit. 
And for a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Walker Buehler

Pitch Data – FB – 30th CT – 9th CB – 14th SL – 10th

We just saw Buehler versus this D-Backs offense and things went well for him with 21 DK points on just 71 pitches. Considering he just came off the IL, I would have to think we see about 90 pitches this time around which would leave him around the 25 DK point window in my mind. The strikeouts have made their way back for Buehler who is up over 28% and the swinging strike rate is almost to the 2019 mark as well.

The fly balls and hard contact are both good to acceptable, although the fly balls at 42.1% isn’t my favorite metric. Buehler is likely the most talented pitcher on the slate and Kevin Gausman just racked up nine strikeouts against this D-Backs squad last night. It can be done and Buehler is likely lock and load in cash, carrying a high ceiling.

Andrew Heaney

Pitch Data – FB – 27th SL – 30th CH – 24th

Picking a SP2 on DK is pretty difficult tonight. There’s going to be two that are in GPP consideration that I can’t quite talk myself into but there’s a strong case. I generally go with the cheapest SP2 that I like in this spot and Heaney fits the bill. That might be the first time I’ve ever said that, but here we are. The K rate is 26.3% which is more than fine but the big facet for Heaney is the HR/9. His career mark is 1.46 and this season it’s 0.41. That’s a massive improvement, and suddenly he’s the horse in the rotation. He hasn’t thrown under 97 pitches the past four starts.

As far as the matchup, the Rangers have scuffled with LHP all year. Their K rate is 24.8% and they still lead the league in ground ball rate to that side of the mound. The team ISO only ranks 24th and the wOBA is 28th. It’s a tough slate for SP2 but I’m rolling with Heaney.

GPP Options

Lance Lynn

Pitch Data – FB – 20th SL – 15th CB – 7th

The only thing keeping Lynn out of cash where he is normally a mainstay is the matchup. I’m always a bit leery for paying top dollar for pitchers where the strikeouts just might not be there. The Angels are barely over 21% but Lynn is over 27% on his own. The good news is the pitch data really does favor Lynn. He throws the fastball almost 70% of the time and that’s the worst pitch for the Angels. The curve is under 9% so that shouldn’t kill him.

The swinging strike rate is a hair scary. It’s only 11.1% and is down almost 1.5% from last year. That could suggest some small regression for the whiffs and this would be a spot for it to happen. His 2.67 ERA isn’t really matched by the 3.92 FIP or the 4.27 xFIP so this is why I favor Heaney. Lynn does routinely throw 100+ pitches so he could grind his way to a solid game.

Sixto Sanchez

Pitch Data – FB – 1st CH – 26th SL – 8th CB – 8th

This is the other pitcher I at least had thoughts of for cash just based on salary. However, the blowup potential is just too high for cash and I’d rather punt a bat. That doesn’t mean the impressive young buck for the Marlins can’t pay off here. Atlanta does whiff almost 25% of the time so if he can avoid them hammering the fastball, it could be a big night. Sanchez is just under a 14% swinging strike rate and has whiffed 26.8% of the hitters he’s faced.

Opposing hitters aren’t just striking out. Sanchez has held both the fly ball and hard hit rates under 30% each and his ERA is just 2.37. His xFIP matches mostly at 2.66 and the FIP is 3.36, which is nothing too shabby. We only have a 19 IP sample but Sanchez has been excellent so far. I just can’t say he’s safe for cash.

Mike Clevinger

Pitch Data – FB – 9th SL – 4th CB – 29th CH – 28th

Someone has to explain to me why Clevinger saw his price jump by $1,200 coming off a single digit DK point game. That makes no sense. I’m still interested because the flow chart says the Rockies are on the road, and that means the opposing pitcher is in play. They whiff nearly 28% of the time and Clevinger might need all the help he can get.

He’s been traded and sent to the alternate training site, contributing to making just five starts so far. Still, the metrics aren’t good. The 20% K rate is massively lower than the career 27.1% mark. The 1.57 HR/9 to go with a FIP of 5.07 and xFIP of 4.87 don’t look great either. You’re hoping the easy matchup wakes him up, but you’re not getting a discount on him either. It’s the main reason why he’s not cash on MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.8.

Monkey Knife Fight

One of the best parts about Monkey Knife Fight is the ability to not have to worry about salary. For instance, I want Dodgers vs Luke Weaver tonight. He’s giving up at least a .357 wOBA and LHH have a 3.31 HR/9. Cody Bellinger, Mookie Betts and Corey Seager are all over a .280 ISO and a .330 wOBA to RHP this year. They are also a combined $17,300 on DK. That doesn’t matter here!

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.7

Yesterday was mostly good, with only Aaron Nola being the miss. It looked like Tyler Glasnow was headed for disaster but salvaged a solid 19 DK. You really needed Jacob deGrom over Shane Bieber or Glasnow to do extremely well, but I’ll happily keep stacking up good days. We have some talent on Monday’s slate but we could be picking some names that aren’t the biggest on the slate for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.7.

Cash Options

Zac Gallen

Pitch Data – FB – 10th CT – 26th CB – 23rd CH – 4th

We’ll get to Max Scherzer in a minute, but Gallen is actually my first choice here. The Giants are only at a 22.3% K rate which is the 10th best to righties, but Gallen is one of the quietest aces in baseball right now. He brings a 27.8% K rate and a 12.3% swinging strike rate into this spot, along with a 1.80 ERA. The 3.57 FIP and 3.66 xFIP do say regression, but not to the extent we have to freak out over. A 96.1% strand rate tends to do that to those metrics.

What I really like with Gallen here is he holds lefties to a .234 wOBA and .169 average. That’s preferable with these Giants and the K rate to that side is still 25.3%. He’s actually averaged more DK points per start than Scherzer and the price difference maybe shouldn’t be $1,200.

Dinelson Lamet

Pitch Data – FB – 8th SL – 4th

We weren’t on Lamet last time out with the matchup and he was fine, but not great. This spot is far different and we’re back on the train tonight. The pitch data might scare me if Lamet wasn’t so talented and didn’t have a 31.7% K rate. The Rockies continue to be a bad offense on the road and has a 24.4% K rate when away from Coors. That includes a 24th ISO and 26th wOBA.

Lamet is fairly equal to both sides of the plate with K rate and wOBA so there’s not a glaring weakness. I’m not a fan normally of the 47.6% fly ball rate but he’s survived it all season long. Missing bats at a 14.4% clip helps and anytime Lamet is under $9,000, he’s got my full attention.

Kevin Gausman

Pitch Data – FB – 30th SF – 5th CH – 30th

The D-Backs are good vs the splitter but it’s such a low usage pitch across the majors that it’s not a deciding factor to me. Additionally, even though Arizona isn’t a big K rate team at just 20.3%, Gausman is just super cheap and doesn’t need eight K’s or more to pay off.

I’m not sure I understand why he’s the cheapest pitcher on the slate. The 4.43 ERA isn’t bad at all and the 3.76 xFIP and 3.09 FIP suggest even better production. He has a 31% K rate and just a 5.3% walk rate. The hard contact is spiked at 48.1% but that’s clearly not killing him. The small worry is the .326 wOBA vs LHH, but this is really not so scary I wouldn’t use him as an SP2 on DK for cash games.

GPP Options

Max Scherzer

Pitch Data – FB – 21st SL – 7th CH – 7th

It’s absolutely possible that I wind up regretting not putting Max into the cash pile. He’s under $10,500 and that has not been the case often the past couple of years. However, I continue to point out that Scherzer is showing signs of slipping, however minimal. The K rate is 32.5% and many pitchers would love that. It’s the lowest for Scherzer since 2016 and the walks are the highest in a decade. Maybe it’s just the workload. He’s hit at least 170 IP since 2009 and the majority have been over 200. The 395 ERA would be the highest since 2012.

Perhaps my biggest worry is the way the Rays setup. They are generally lefty heavy and Scherzer has legitimately been getting hit by LHH. Not like in past years where it was just for some power either. We’re talking a .307 average, .875 OPS and .369 wOBA over 99 lefties faced. That includes a 1.66 HR/9. He’s probably the likeliest on this slate to whiff double-digit hitters but might give up 3-5 runs in the process.

Hyun Jin Ryu

Pitch Data – FB – 14th CH – 5th CT – 5th CB – 20th

This is only for the brave at heart and is the diciest pick of the bunch. On small slates like MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.7, it sometimes well-calculated gambles can pay off. New York is still quite banged up and whiffs the ninth-highest to LHP at 24.3%. They are 20th or worse in average, OBP, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. The highest rank is ISO…at 16th. Not exactly the most frightening numbers.

Ryu’s first two starts were awful. He looked poor, the velocity was down, nothing went right. Since then, he’s not scored under 19 DK in his next six starts. Two of those came against Baltimore, one of the best offenses vs LHP on paper in baseball. His best came against Atlanta, which is also set up well to LHP. Ryu keeps the ball out of the air at 25.2% and the K rate is 27.6%. Most of the field doesn’t pitch against the Yankees, so let’s be different.

Monkey Knife Fight

Since this is a pitching based article, we don’t talk about offenses too much unless we’re attacking them. It’s a great time to sign up with our link to monkeyknifefight.com and make some bets yourself that are based on offense!

Jordan Montgomery takes the hill for the Yankees tonight and through 77 RHP faced, they’ve tuned him up for a .394 wOBA, .945 OPS and a 2.60 HR/9. Vlad Guerrero and Randal Grichuk both possess ISO’s over .340 to LHP this year and Tellez is at a .345 wOBA himself. It’s a bonus to get both, because DK you can only pick one of Vlad or Rowdy “Roddy” Tellez.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends! 

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