Tag:

MLB DFS

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.19

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.19

It was another very good night for the rotation! We hit the cash combo with Zach Plesac and Tyler Glasnow perfectly, Chris Paddack pitched well and Max Fried was solid as well. We’ve got another big slate in front of us tonight so let’s just get right to work for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.19!

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit.

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Corbin Burnes

Pitch Data – FB – 9th CT – 18th SL – 13th CH – 28th

The pitchers like Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger are absolutely in play, but I’m going lower in cash games tonight to afford some bast and Burnes is the first half of that combo. The Royals have crept up to the 12th highest K rate to RHP at 24.2% while being 20th or worse in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. They do hit the fastball well, but that’s under 40% of the pitch usage for Burnes. His xFIP of 3.11 is high compared to the 1.98 ERA, but the FIP is 1.93 so I don’t believe regression is coming that hard for him.

Over 50 innings, he’s allowed exactly one home run. The K rate is 37.2% and last night we noted that Tyler Glasnow was at 37.4% which is this-best in MLB. The walks are at 11.1% which could be a big issue but even there, the Royals help negate that. They rank 23rd in walk rate as a team and I fully expect Burnes to be very chalky at such a cheap salary. He’s put up at least 23 DK over the past four starts and has a 35 and 41 point performance under his belt.

Kwang Hyun Kim

Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 26th CB – 29th

Kim is not the strikeout artist hat we typically prefer with just a 15.5% rate through his 28.2 IP so far. However, the pitch data really stands out as one of the best on the slate. He throws a split finger now and again as well and the Bucks are 25th against that pitch. Pittsburgh isn’t exactly a high K rate team to LHP at 21.8% but they are 25th in ISO. They need to rack up some hits and I’m not sure they will with Kim having a 0.91 WHIP so far.

What really stands out is the Pirates are projected to have seven RHH in the lineup tonight. Through 88 batters faced, Kim has owned that side of the plate with a .195 wOBA, .460 OPS and a 0.38 HR/9. The issue with RHH is the K rate goes down even more to just 10.2%. He’s still under $8,000 and Burnes should carry the water as far as K’s between this combo.

Honorable Mention – Clevinger and Bauer. If you want to be thrifty with offense, one or both is a perfectly fine route to take.

GPP Options

Ian Anderson

Pitch Data – FB – 3rd CH – 1st CB – 14th

Do I typically want to go after pitchers against the Mets? Not really, since they strike out less than 22% and they lead the league in average, OBP and wRC+ to RHP. The pitch data doesn’t exactly favor Anderson either but this is the first time the Mets will see this young buck. He’s a very stealthy pick for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.19. Anderson is boasting a 30.3% K rate with a 12.2% swinging strike rate through his first 22 innings in the bigs.

The other big reason I’m still willing to take a shot with Anderson is his numbers against lefties. The Mets are projected for six of them tonight and Anderson has shut that side down with a .173 wOBA, .334 OPS and a 36.0% K rate. He has some strengths to combat what the Mets do well and has been above 20 DK in three of his four starts so far.

Andrew Heaney

Pitch Data – FB – 26th SL – 30th CH – 19th

This is one where the numbers on paper haven’t lined up with the results. Heaney has faced this rangers team twice so far this season. The results have been 8.2 IP, 8 ER, 8 K’s and 13 hits allowed. He’s scored under 11 DK points combined in those two starts but on paper, this should be a good spot. Texas has the fifth-highest K rate team to LHP and Heaney is almost at 26% himself.

What’s been impressive is Heaney has stifled the home run ball that has plagued him his entire career. He’s only giving up a 0.64 HR/9 and Texas is 20th in homers vs LHP overall. They have the worst wRC+ and are bottom four in OPS, wOBA and ISO. Heaney should return a solid start, but it just hasn’t worked yet.

Honorable Mention – Clayton Kershaw (career 4.60 ERA at Coors, with 130 K’s over 133 IP and a 1.29 WHIP)

Stacks to Target

Los Angeles Dodgers – I mean, come on. They put up a low football score last night and Chi Chi Gonzalez is giving up a .542 wOBA, .467 average and a 2.70 HR/9 to the left side of the plate. There’s a reason I’m looking to spend lower at SP tonight.

Targets – Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, Mookie Betts, any “cheap” Dodger that makes the lineup

New York Yankees – They were under played relative to the Dodgers and six runs have never felt so unsatisfying. Boston starter Chris Mazza has yet to throw over 75 pitches and has a 5.57 ERA himself. If he gets through four innings, that leaves the bullpen for five. Good luck.

Targets – DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Clint Frazier for the wraparound, Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres

Atlanta Braves – They get another lefty and mashed last night with double digit runs. I have a soft spot for them after a solid hit last night but they are a great play again. The seasonal numbers aren’t impressive but they’ve had some injuries and they have a lot of lefty mashers to deploy. Mets starter David Peterson is giving up a .314 wOBA to the right side and only strikes them out 15.6% of the time.

Targets – Ronald Acuna, Adam Duvall, Marcell Ozuna, Travis d’Arnaud, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley

San Diego Padres – We’ve used Justus Sheffield for the Mariners a couple times lately but I flat out don’t go after lefties against the Padres. They rank at least top 12 in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Six hitters are above a .335 wOBA and seven are above a .200 ISO.

Targets – Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Will Myers, Tommy Pham, Austin Nola

Monkey Knife Fight

I’ll be treating the counting K’s like a double up again, but I do like getting a little risky with a small bet to go higher. We talked about Burnes but Kris Bubic gets a Brewers offense that does whiff at a top-eight rate to LHP at 24.5%.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

5 years ago 0 comments

FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown For 9.18

Uriah Wesson 5 years ago

written by Uriah Wesson

Happy Friday folks! So did everyone run to the store and grab your kites? You’re going to see a very common theme for me today in this 12 game slate and that is targeting good players in positive weather conditions, specifically wind. Most of the games today are going to have winds between 10-15 miles an hour and we are going to take advantage of the extra benefit that provides us. I am already running a bit behind today so I won’t waste any time, here is my FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown For 9.18

WinDaily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on monkeyknifefight.com. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit.
And for a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Click on the link below to learn more.

Tonight, we have an abundance of bats in a 12 game slate so you can likely choose an option and feel decent about ownership tonight. In terms of pitching I’ve been pretty successful when taking weather into consideration this season. Not that it makes it harder to make contact or anything, but in this day and age where everyone spends their off-seasons learning how to increase their launch angle it makes negative wind conditions more important than ever before. We’re in the era of the long ball and that provides us an extra leverage point that not everyone will be looking at.

FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown for 9.18 Pitching:

Game Note: On days like today I can not stress the science behind the increased launch angle and the effects of wind. I know plenty of you have heard it from myself and other writers but every 5 mph increases or in decreases fly ball distance by around 20 feet.

Kyle Hendricks, Cubs, 9.3K:

The first guy on my list tonight for a number of reasons is Kyle Henricks. He’s been extremely consistent giving you at least 40 FD point in each of his last three outings and he has upside against strikeout prone teams such as Twins as evidenced by a 64 point outing against the Brewers where he threw a complete game shutout with 9 K’s. We also have some of the best conditions of the night with sustained winds blown in at no less than 10 mph with some of the most notorious launch angle guys in the MLB. I really like him for my cash arm today.

Steven Matz, Mets 5.9K

This one is not for the faint of heart as Matz has looked terrible in the majority of his outings with the only bright spot being against these same Braves in his season debut. His metrics however match up perfectly with the Bravos sporting a 23% K-rate against righties with Freeman and Albies being the only two lefties in the lineup and splits over the last two seasons that present overall better numbers against opposite handed bats. While the Braves can score in bunches they can also strike out the same way sitting 5th in the majors with 466 strikeouts. Once again conditions provide extra protection with winds blowing in at almost 15 mph for the duration of the game negating the long ball.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays, 10.1K

Tyler has been a very up and down story this season. One day he is giving up five earned in four innings against Boston and next thing you know he is striking out 13 in seven innings against the Orioles. It drives you nuts but it also makes him a great GPP play in the right conditions which I think we have tonight. If people are just staring at the average points today I think most will go to Zach Plesac at just 300 more against the Tigers and for us that’s fine. Baltimore is not the pushover that they used to be sitting right around league average in most offensive categories but there is not a single bat who matches up well against Glasnow. As a team, against power arms the have a .210 avg and .373 slugging which is going to be a problem as almost 60% on Tyler’s pitches are four seam fastballs in the high 90’s. His fly ball rate is a touch high but not out of control at 35%, but once again continuing my theme of the day we have wind blowing in hard from right around 13 mph negating the fly ball risk.

FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown for 9.18 Stacks and Bats:

Dodgers:

I know that we flippantly have a habit of saying “always Dodgers”, and for good reason. They are a threat to go off on any evening but tonight the odds are stacked in favor of this result as we have a perfect storm. We’re in Colorado, wind blowing out to right field at around 10 mph, and an opposing pitcher in Ryan Castellani who is near the bottom in every measurable category that we look at for pitching. Vegas to this point is in agreement with a mammoth 7.5 implied run total. Instead of listing the names individually I’m just going to say that 1-9 is in play tonight. It’s just a matter of who you can afford to play.

Rockies:

Right to the other side of this contest the Rockies are similarly in a fantastic spot to make this game look like an NFL total when it is all over with, Mitch White has pitched a whopping one inning in the bigs and his minor league stats are….well….underwhelming. In 16 appearances last year in AAA he allowed 73 hits, 13 of which were HR’s, and 24 walks in 63 innings, for an ERA of 6.50. The normal guys, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, and Charlie Blackmon are firmly in play if you can afford them and I personally like the idea of using a wraparound stack in this instance with a Ryan McMahon, Tony Wolters, or whoever ends up at the bottom of the order tonight in a GPP lineup.

Athletics:

There are a ton of chalk plays tonight so I wanted to give you something a little different and the Athletics match up very well against the Giants Logan Webb. He’s been successful with keeping his fly ball rate down (26.7%) but with his primary pitches being a 4-seamer and change-up with his sinker being his least utilized pitch I don’t think that’s telling the whole story. He has some very interesting splits where right handed bats fare much better as well giving up a .306 BA, .510 SLG, and .892 OPS in two seasons. That puts guys like Marcus Semien, Mark Canha, and Robbie Grossman and solid options. But don’t be shy about using Matt Olsen and Sean Murphy also as their individual metrics skew favorably tonight. We also have some nice weather conditions with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left center.

Others to consider: Yankees, I would have written them up as well but what good does writing the three chalkiest plays do for you guys in GPP’s?

Bonus Stack: With two of my three arms being on the more expensive side I felt like you guys needed more cheaper and possibly under the radar stacks with the monster totals we have going tonight. The Rangers side of the Rangers/Angels fit the bill. The Angels Jaime Berria does not look like a competent arm and he is especially bad against right handed bats. In fact he has some of the worst numbers I’ve seen in the last two seasons in any split among ANY starting pitchers. 51% fly ball, 42% hard hit and a .349 ISO against righties. He’s a finesse pitcher who lives up in the zone which is a terrible combination. That means guys like Leody Taveras, Nick Solak, and Anderson Tejeda are dirt cheap options to look at and although FanDuel says Jimmy Hergert is starting for the Rangers he is merely the “opener”. Wes Benjamin will be the left handed arm doing the bulk of the work and aside from Anthony Rendon the Angels have looked awful against lefties, even Trout this season (.227 avg, .386 slugging in 2020 in 54 plate appearances) has looked bad with a team split of .234 average and .411 slugging in 651 plate appearances. So apart from the one off I’d avoid tonight.

Favorite Pitcher:

Cash: Kyle Hendricks

GPP: Depends on if you need the savings. If paying up for bats Matz, if not Glasnow

Favorite Stack: Dodgers (Chalk), Athletics (lower owned)

Favorite Chalk Player: Corey Seager

Favorite Low Owned Player: Mark Canha

Salary Saver: Tony Wolters

Home Run Call: Can I just say Dodgers???? If Not Cody Bellinger

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports FanDuel main slate breakdown for 9.18 . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.18

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.18

After a night off from an article, we’re ready to roll into a big slate on Friday. We have 12 games on tap and some promising spots to try and go after, so let’s get started in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.18!

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Zach Plesac

Pitch Data – FB – 7th SL – 28th CH – 16th CB – 27th

Plesac checks so many boxes that I would have to imagine he’s the chalk. He’s a righty against the Tigers, he owns a 25.5% K rate on his own and his WHIP is 0.78. Plesac is also only giving up a 30% hard hit rate while generating a swinging strike rate of 14.2%. We don’t need to get too involved here in all honestly. Much like Bieber last night, you basically just lock him in cash and move on to the rest. The salary of $8,500 is fairly laughable given the circumstances.

Tyler Glasnow

Pitch Data – FB – 9th CB – 16th

Playing Glasnow can be a bit of a roller coaster at times, but the simple fact is he strikes hitters out and the K is King in MLB DFS. The big righty has a 37.4% K rate and that is tied for the third-highest among starters this season. I still contend he’s been unlucky so far because the FIP is 3.51 and the xFIP is 2.86 but the ERA is 4.47. The HR/9 is elevated at 1.55 with just a 37.3% fly ball rate.

He’s faced the Orioles twice this season and had their number, whiffing 18 hitters over 11.2 IP. Baltimore isn’t typically a big strikeout matchup at 22.9% but Glasnow is not your typical pitcher. The walk rate is a bit higher than I love at 9.7% but the amount of strikeouts overwhelms the negative there. Count me in regardless of format for him tonight.

GPP Options

Zach Greinke

Pitch Data – FB – 29th CH – 30th SL – 9th CB – 8th

It might seem weird to put Greinke in the GPP category but he’s been a little rough lately. It could just be a small blip but with Greinke and the mileage on that arm, it’s best to be careful. He continues to get it done unlike just about every other pitcher in the game. Not many pitchers survive an 87.2 MPH average on the fastball. That’s 143rd among staring pitchers. He’s also not in the cash pile since he’s the highest salary on DK despite four of his last five games scoring under 18 DK.

Arizona also has the best K rate in MLB to the righty pitchers at just 20.3% so the matchup certainly isn’t great. It’s one of the reasons I won’t go there in cash, but the splits could be key for Greinke. He dominates LHH with a .218 wOBA and .189 average with 0 homers so far. The K rate skyrockets to 31% so if the D-Backs trot out a lefty-filled lineup, Greinke could quietly be one of the best options of the night and not many will pay up for him.

Chris Paddack

Pitch Data – FB – 20th CH – 26th

I’m still of the strong opinion that Paddack has to develop some type of reliable third pitch if he sticks as a big time starter. Since that’s not happening by tonight, he can be nothing more than a GPP option. He does draw the Mariners matchup that we’ve picked on a lot and is fighting for a role in the postseason. His lone start against the Mariners was a mixed bag. He whiffed seven but gave up six runs.

Another plus here is Paddack is pitching in San Diego, where the ERA is 4.11 compared to 5.79 on the road. Seattle has been a lot better in the K rate, down to 22.6%. They are still 16th or worse in OPS, ISO and wOBA so there’s still potential for Paddack tonight.

Honorable Mention – Max Fried, Zac Gallen

Monkey Knife Fight

The only game that features two ace to ace-lite pitchers is the Arizona at Houston game, so we’re focusing on that one. I feel most comfortable with the lowest K total and just treating it as a double up, but bankroll management is always key.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

9.17 MLB DFS Preview Podcast

Michael Rasile 5 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

9.17 MLB DFS Preview Podcast

On the 9.17 MLB DFS Preview, Mitchell and Michael check out the 9.17 MLB slate and give their favorite plays for the night!

Listen to the show below and make sure to subscribe on your podcast app of choice!

You can also listen on these platforms below!
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Anchor

🎙️ WIN DAILY SPORTS PODCAST: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/win-daily/id1461164275?ign-mpt=uo%3D4

🤑 SIGN UP FOR AN ALL ACCESS ACCOUNT: WinDailySports.com/

🤓 FREE EXPERT DISCORD CHAT: discord.com/invite/KEFD2Kr

📺 FOLLOW Win Daily Sports: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCY2I3VNyf_dtW-2xl5vwv0Q

Change your game, change your life!

➙FIND WIN DAILY SPORTS SHOW ON APPLE PODCAST HERE: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/win-daily/id1461164275?ign-mpt=uo%3D4

➙FIND WIN DAILY SPORTS SHOW EVERYWHERE ELSE HERE: https://anchor.fm/windaily

➙FOLLOW WIN DAILY SPORTS ON TWITTER: https://twitter.com/windailysports

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

9.16 MLB DFS Preview Podcast

Michael Rasile 5 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

9.16 MLB DFS Preview Podcast

On the 9.16 MLB DFS Preview, Mitchell and Michael check out the 9.16 MLB slate and give their favorite plays for the night!

Listen to the show below and make sure to subscribe on your podcast app of choice!

You can also listen on these platforms below!
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Anchor

🎙️ WIN DAILY SPORTS PODCAST: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/win-daily/id1461164275?ign-mpt=uo%3D4

🤑 SIGN UP FOR AN ALL ACCESS ACCOUNT: WinDailySports.com/

🤓 FREE EXPERT DISCORD CHAT: discord.com/invite/KEFD2Kr

📺 FOLLOW Win Daily Sports: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCY2I3VNyf_dtW-2xl5vwv0Q

Change your game, change your life!

➙FIND WIN DAILY SPORTS SHOW ON APPLE PODCAST HERE: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/win-daily/id1461164275?ign-mpt=uo%3D4

➙FIND WIN DAILY SPORTS SHOW EVERYWHERE ELSE HERE: https://anchor.fm/windaily

➙FOLLOW WIN DAILY SPORTS ON TWITTER: https://twitter.com/windailysports

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.16

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.16

We knew it was going to be a fairly tough slate and the results tended to show. Some pitchers did well like Yu Darvish and Matt Boyd while others were iffy, like Jack Flaherty. Tonight’s slate is great up top with four legit aces and then the bottom really falls out. It’s a night better spent with double aces and being creative with bats, but let’s take a closer look for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.16!

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Jacob deGrom

Pitch Data – FB – 7th SL – 20th CH – 1st

I was joking with Brian that I could likely write Picks and Pivots for him since we get deGrom on a #LesterDay, but I’ll let him handle the second part. In any other spot, the pitching data would give me pause. It doesn’t when it’s deGrom and he racked up 38.8 DK last time against Philly. For some unknown reason, his price actually went down $100 from the last time he was on a regular slate. deGrom should never be this cheap.

The K rate is 37.8%, the WHIP is 0.87, the ERA is 1.67…you start to run out of ways to describe the dominance. The swinging strike rate is an astounding 21.1% and there is literally no reason to not just lock him in.

Gerrit Cole

Pitch Data – FB – 17th SL – 18th CH – 11th

Cole has had a big weakness this year and it’s been lefty hitters (and not keeping the ball in the park). The lefties aren’t a giant concern with the Blue Jays lineup as they don’t have a lot of power lefties to worry about. Cole’s strikeout rate has come down a bit to just 33.2% but that’s still plenty to use under $10,000.

His swinging strike rate is down about 1% from last year but it’s still almost 16%. Cole has shown some flaws compared to last year but the salary is so easy to pay for. The upside is still there as his last two starts have generated 27.9 and 41 DK. To pair up deGrom and Cole for barely over $20,000 is not something to be done very often.

GPP Options

Lucas Giolito

Pitch Data – FB – 12th CH – 9th SL – 19th

I’m not sure I could mount a strong case to not play Giolito in cash, but he would definitely be my third choice. What’s interesting here is he’s coming off a start where he was the overwhelming chalk. Giolito really stunk against expectations in that one. Now the matchup ramps up to get much tougher. I doubt many flock to him given the other options.

Giolito has shown he can get it done against the Twins. He has a 20.3 DK start against this team and they do strike out quite a bit to RHP at 24.9%. The flip side is they are top-eight across almost every single offensive category. He could be the least -used ace of the bunch and that’s worth it alone in GPP.

Aaron Nola

Pitch Data – FB – 5th CH – 3rd CB – 11th

I usually don’t go after the Mets with pitching. The MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.16 could be an exception. They only whiff 21.6% of the time and they lead the league in average, OBP and wRC+ to RHP. However, Nola is a true ace and has got them twice this year. He’s generated 18 strikeouts in two starts and he does have a 35.5% K rate on the year.

Nola pitches better at home with just a 1.57 ERA and he’s a hair better to LHB at a .247 wOBA. He does strike out the right side of the plate at a much higher rate, but that hasn’t bothered him against the Mets yet. Much like Giolito, Nola could be far overlooked on this slate.

Honorable Mention – Brian Singer (I’ll give any RHP against the Tigers a look, especially at the salary)

Monkey Knife Fight

If we’re looking for the most amount of strikeouts in a single game, look no further than the Mets at the Phillies. With deGrom and Nola on the mound, I’m going for broke as they have the ability to post 20 total tonight.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

9.15 MLB DFS Preview Podcast

Michael Rasile 5 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

9.15 MLB DFS Preview Podcast

On the 9.15 MLB DFS Preview, Jason and Michael check out the 9.15 MLB slate and give their favorite plays for the night!

Listen to the show below and make sure to subscribe on your podcast app of choice!

You can also listen on these platforms below!
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Anchor

🎙️ WIN DAILY SPORTS PODCAST: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/win-daily/id1461164275?ign-mpt=uo%3D4

🤑 SIGN UP FOR AN ALL ACCESS ACCOUNT: WinDailySports.com/

🤓 FREE EXPERT DISCORD CHAT: discord.com/invite/KEFD2Kr

📺 FOLLOW Win Daily Sports: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCY2I3VNyf_dtW-2xl5vwv0Q

Change your game, change your life!

➙FIND WIN DAILY SPORTS SHOW ON APPLE PODCAST HERE: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/win-daily/id1461164275?ign-mpt=uo%3D4

➙FIND WIN DAILY SPORTS SHOW EVERYWHERE ELSE HERE: https://anchor.fm/windaily

➙FOLLOW WIN DAILY SPORTS ON TWITTER: https://twitter.com/windailysports

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.15

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.15

It was another very solid day on the Starting Rotation, with three of four primary options going over 27 DK and two clearing 30. Jesus Luzardo was the main player that was just average, but he was so popular in cash it didn’t hurt you. We have a monster 13 game slate tonight so let’s not waste any more time before diving into MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.15.

Cash Options

Yu Darvish

Pitch Data – CT – 24th FB – 24th SL – 29th CB – 24th

This spot couldn’t honestly line up much better for Darvish. First off, we saw him struggle mightily in the first inning last start. He responded and still finished with 22 DK and whiffed nine Reds hitters. He carries a 33.6% K rate into this one and the ERA, FIP and xFIP are all under 2.65. The Indians are struggling with RHP at a 24.2% K rate and being 24th or worse in ISO, OPS and wOBA.

If there’s any small concern, it’s the reduced K rate to LHH for Darvish. It’s “only” 28.9% but the wOBA is still only .239. On this big of a slate we surprisingly don’t have a lot of very safe cash options, so Darvish becomes the prime choice almost by default. Let’s be honest, he’s always a cash option and the pitch data is really spectacular for him as well.

Jack Flaherty

Pitch Data – FB – 27th SL – 21st CB – 10th

As I said, cash is a little tough here. There’s an arm that I do really like cheap that maybe you could turn to on DK for the SP2 but the safer choice should be Flaherty. It feels like things are starting to turn for him. The ERA and xFIP are both under 3.60 and he’s giving up a lower HR/9 from 2019. The K rate is down to 25% but the Brewers and their second-highest K rate to RHP should help him out there.

He throws the curveball the least of his three main pitches so the pitch data looks even better. He’s up to 95 pitches in his last game so we should feel good about the workload. Milwaukee has been flat awful all season and Flaherty has probably been a little better than some traditional stats would say. The 13.4% swinging strike rate is near identical to last year and will show up sooner than later.

Honorable Mention – Carlos Carrasco

GPP Options

Deivi Garcia

Pitch Data – FB – 17th CB – 5th CH – 11th

I’m honestly flirting with Garcia in cash to be able to fit more bats. He’s started three games and has scored over 23 DK in two, while scoring 9.7 in the other. His best start so far has come in his last one vs these Blue Jays, where he was throwing some high heat.

Deivi Garcia, 94mph Fastball…and K Hop.

@freejoekelly17 pic.twitter.com/DkzayTQitp
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 10, 2020

Through three starts, he has a 25.7% K rate and a 2.9% walk rate. Considering his walk rate has been over 11% at every stop of A+, AA and AAA ball, that is wonderful for Garcia. He has no fear and seems unflappable so far. Teams have not been able to figure him out with just a 28.6% hard hit rate. The 12.1% swinging strike rate is a great sign too and he really shouldn’t be under $7,000.

Matt Boyd

Pitch Data – FB – 11th SL – 10th CH – 28th

Perhaps the ultimate GPP option, Boyd has some serious upside at $8,000 with some horrendous downside. In his last seven starts, three have been under 1 DK and two have been over 24. That’s what we call the roller coaster. The Royals do only whiff 21.4% but Boyd is at 24.4% himself. The 2.68 HR/9 is really bizarre. Boyd has a SIERA of just 4.27 and an xFIP of 4.63. Both are significantly different than the 7.63 ERA. His 13.1% swinging strike rate is way out of whack for a bad pitcher as well. Boyd could be anything on this slate but I’m willing to look at him.

Honorable Mention – Ljay Newsome, Dane Dunning, Taijuan Walker

Monkey Knife Fight

It’s been open season on D-Backs starter Madison Bumgarner. He’s getting crushed to an ERA over 7.00 with a 13.7% K rate, 52.2% fly ball rate and a 45.6% hard hit rate. It gets worse to RHH with a .444 wOBA, 1.109 OPS, 4.74 HR/9 and a 9.7% K rate. That is….rough. The Angels should be able to capitalize on it tonight. Anthony Rendon leads with a .398 wOBA and .283 ISO. Mike Trout is odd with just a .167 ISO and .318 wOBA but Bumgarner is nothing to fear. Likewise, Justin Upton whiffs over 34% of the time but when he makes contact, he has a .204 ISO.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.14

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.14

We’re back in action on a fairly small Monday night slate! This slate is not for players that don’t like to spend up on pitching because the bottom salary players are tough to get behind. I’m not sure that there’s a pitcher under $8,000 that I’m too keen on. I do know the very first pitcher I’m locking in for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.14 so let’s get right to it!

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Trevor Bauer

Pitch Data – FB – 29th CT – 12th CB – 29th SL – 23rd

I’m not even really looking at any other option for my SP1 in cash and likely GPP. There’s some type of issues with just about every other pitcher on this slate but Bauer has no real concerns on paper. The K rate is 36% and the swinging strike rate is 12.7%. Combine that with a 29.1% hard hit rate and it’s hard to see where the Pirates hurt him. They are a top 10 offense in K rate to RHP and near the bottom of every offensive category. This one is too simple by every metric we value.

Jesus Luzardo

Pitch Data – FB – 26th SL – 27th CH – 26th

This would not normally be a cash play but the slate sort of dictates Luzardo being the cheapest we can go. Seattle is 24th or worse in OBP, OPS, slugging, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ on the season to LHP. That also comes with a K rate that is over 25% as a team, so there’s room for potential upside.

Luzardo has a 23.9% K rate himself and just a 27.4% fly ball rate. He also doesn’t get hit very hard with just a 33.1% hard hit rate. The .306 BABIP doesn’t seem like something that will stick around forever either so this lines up well. The pitch data really couldn’t be much better for him either so Bauer and Luzardo is the cheapest combo we could go in cash.

GPP Options

Dinelson Lamet

Pitch Data – FB – 2nd SL – 9th

We all know this isn’t the best spot on paper with the Dodgers being one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball. Lamet has faced them once and only accrued 11.2 DK points. He actually pitched pretty well in real life, with just one earned through 5.2 IP. He just didn’t get the strikeouts with two. The Dodgers lead the league in K rate at 20.2% but Lamet is that talented that he can get it done here with his 32.9% K rate on the season.

Pablo Lopez

Pitch Data – FB – 6th CH – 1st CT – 21st

This is another spot that doesn’t exactly line up with what we want. Lopez still is worth a look for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.14. We’re hoping that Lopez bounces back after getting hammered by the Braves last time out. In fact, that could help us this time around since game log watchers won’t go near him. Even after the disaster last time, Lopez still has a 4.50 ERA to go with his 3.15 FIP and 3.49 xFIP. The HR/9 is still 0.68 and the K rate is right at 23%. He continues to show serious home/road splits with a 2.79 ERA at home through 19.1 IP. This is a good spot to try and get him low-owned.

Honorable Mention – Clayton Kershaw, Kwang Hyun Kim

Monkey Knife Fight

The Orioles are putting Jorge Lopez on the mound and that’s likely not to end well for him. The Braves are getting healthy and Lopez features a 6.38 ERA and a K rate under 18%. Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman and Adam Duvall all have an ISO over .355 and a wOBA over .380.

Let’s get after it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB GPP Stacks 9/13

Mitchell Thoennes 5 years ago

written by Mitchell Thoennes

In this article I will be breaking down MLB GPP Stacks 9/13. I will inform you with three teams that you may stack, with three players from that team that are interesting GPP plays for today’s slate. I will be using DraftKings pricing for this article.

Today we will be breaking down MLB GPP Stacks 9/13 eight game slate. I will be doing stacks today since NFL will take over most of DraftKings focus on Sundays, as the highest top prize offered for baseball today is 5K. I myself am not a huge fan of this slate either, so I may have one lineup for baseball at best. Regardless we are going to break down this Sunday afternoon slate, with the first game on the slate between Baltimore vs The Yankees being the highest total in Vegas at ten runs. In any case of a weather delay or to find confirmed lineups, head over to the Discord Chat Rooms as myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff will be happy to provide the information we contain.

Pitcher

Triston McKenzie – ($8,100)

This young kid has been impressive early in his Major League career, with a WHIP of just .76 and 26 strikeouts in just 21 innings. Now this is a GPP only play as the Twins lineup can go deep very easily and knock him out. You may ask why McKenzie then? He still has great upside with his strikeout percentage is 34.2% and a swinging strike rate of just under 14%. The Twins, who hit the ball out of the ballpark also strikeout a huge amount, as they have five players with a strikeout rate above 30% and seven above 20%. When you add all that together this young pitcher has great upside in this matchup with a reasonable price tag.

MLB GPP Stacks 9/13

New York Yankees

The Yankees are in a great position to stack or even pick just one player with power to go deep (Luke Voit). John Means has given up an atrocious nine homeruns in just twenty-six innings this season. A couple great reasons you can stack against him are. He has only worked from ahead in the count 43% of the time this season, his hard to soft contact differential is nearly 30%, and right-handed hitters have a massive .329 ISO off Means this season. Clearly right-handed bats hit better off Means, so this is my Yankees stack.

DJ LeMahieu (has 0% soft contact vs lefties this season)
Luke Voit (ISO of .469 and wOBA of .416 off lefties)
Aaron Hicks (.352 wOBA and hard hit of 50% off lefties)

Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati is facing another pitcher that has given up homeruns this season in Carlos Martinez giving up ten runs and three homeruns in just seven and one third innings. His other numbers have been terrible as well only showing a strikeout percentage of 13%, hard contact of 60%, and exit velocity above 95MPH 41% of the time this season. Lastly, he is giving up a total ISO of .328 and wOBA of .456. The following are the Reds players that catch my eye based upon their numbers.

Nick Castellanos (ISO of .309 and wOBA of .371 vs righties)
Jesse Winker (ISO of .292 and wOBA of .401 vs righties)
Mike Moustakas (.365 wOBA and 47.8% hard hit rate vs righties)

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are facing a rookie pitcher that until now has never seen anything above High-A level baseball and it isn’t like he dominated down there with an ERA of 3.5. This lineup offers me salary saving against a young inexperienced pitcher to get my more expensive bats listed above. We have no advanced pitching metrics for this rookie coming from the minors so I will jump into the Detroit bats that intrigue me.

Jeimer Candelario (.243 ISO and .369 wOBA vs righties)
Willi Castro (ISO of .250 and wOBA of .408 vs righties)
Jorge Bonifacio (54.2% FB rate and 66% 95MPH exit velo off righties)

That will end this Sunday’s edition of MLB GPP Stacks 9/13 an eight-game noon slate. We have all major sports playing today so it will be a dream Sunday full of sports for me. It does not look as if we will need to watch any weather for this slate of MLB games today. Which may be a good thing if you set some MLB lineups and then get caught up in watching football. To talk more about NFL or MLB join myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff in the Discord Chat Rooms as we get more of our ideas and thoughts on the table over there. Have a wonderful Sunday and I wish you the best of luck in all your lineups whether it be MLB, or NFL. Thanks for reading my content and let us make it a profitable Sunday.

5 years ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts

MLB DFS

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.19

Cash Options

Corbin Burnes

Kwang Hyun Kim

GPP Options

Ian Anderson

Andrew Heaney

Stacks to Target

Monkey Knife Fight

FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown for 9.18 Pitching:

Kyle Hendricks, Cubs, 9.3K:

Steven Matz, Mets 5.9K

Tyler Glasnow, Rays, 10.1K

FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown for 9.18 Stacks and Bats:

Dodgers:

Rockies:

Athletics:

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.18

Cash Options

Zach Plesac

Tyler Glasnow

GPP Options

Zach Greinke

Chris Paddack

Monkey Knife Fight

9.17 MLB DFS Preview Podcast

9.16 MLB DFS Preview Podcast

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.16

Cash Options

Jacob deGrom

Gerrit Cole

GPP Options

Lucas Giolito

Aaron Nola

Monkey Knife Fight

9.15 MLB DFS Preview Podcast

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.15

Cash Options

Yu Darvish

Jack Flaherty

GPP Options

Deivi Garcia

Matt Boyd

Monkey Knife Fight

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.14

Cash Options

Trevor Bauer

Jesus Luzardo

GPP Options

Dinelson Lamet

Pablo Lopez

Monkey Knife Fight

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

Our Company

©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Queue

©2024 WIN DAILY^®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.