MLB DFS

Starting Rotation 4.27

Tuesday brings us a much larger slate but the quality of pitching isn’t exactly spectacular. There’s quality at the top but the cliff goes down pretty steeply. That doesn’t mean we can’t find some gems through the lineups, but it becomes more of a challenge. Let’s not mess about and get into the Starting Rotation 4.27 so we can lay the foundation to find the green screens again! 

Starting Rotation 4.27 – Main Targets 

Lucas Giolito ($9,300 DK/$$10,600 FD) 

Giolito was slated to start Sunday for the White Sox but was sick and got his start pushed. This is part of what I wrote before that start and I 100% stand by it today –

Giolito got blasted last time out but that doesn’t really affect today in my eyes. First off, every pitcher has some bad days. It happens in baseball. Secondly, he took the mound at what amounted to 10 AM for his rhythm. Giolito is typically in the Central time zone and it’s a tough ask to pitch that early in the morning (11 AM Eastern). Pitchers especially are creatures of habit. So the 5.79 ERA is not only skewed but the 3.53 FIP and 2.94 xFIP also suggest positive regression for Giolito is just around the corner. He won’t continue to have a 55.6% strand rate and a .311 BABIP when he’s sporting a 32.1% K rate, 15.1% swinging-strike rate, and a 31.4% CSW.

Now he gets the Detroit lineup that is struggling to get the ball in play with a 27.4% K rate, fifth-worst in the league. The Detroit lineup also plays into his strengths as far as splits go this year. The projected hitters include six lefties and/or switch hitters and Giolito has a .227 wOBA, .205 average, and a 35.7% K rate to that side of the plate. Even the FIP is all the way down at 1.00.

We have one bigger name on the mound, but Giolito has one of the best matchups on the board for a cheaper salary. Even with some extended rest, I’m not overly worried.

Max Scherzer ($10,900 DK/$12,000 FD)

Typically we don’t use pitchers against the Blue Jays lineup but Max is just built differently. Toronto only carries a K rate of 23.9% which is 19th in the league. That’s not a huge number but the pitch mix is outstanding for Scherzer. The only pitch Toronto hits well is the curve and that’s the pitch Scherzer uses the least. The 1.80 ERA looks excellent but he does have a 100% strand rate so that’s not going to continue at his current rates. The K rate is still almost 36% which is 11th in the league. The fly ball rate is a little worrisome at 59.3% and little things like that could be the tie-breaker with a pitcher like Lucas Giolito. 

Both the swinging strike rate and CSW are still high at 15.7% and 31.3% so Scherzer is getting plenty of strikes regardless of type. The most noticeable metric for Scherzer that looks different is the wOBA to RHH at .302. He’s always been a little worse to lefties so seeing that is surprising. The HR/9 is also elevated at 2.53 so far, out of character as well. I thought perhaps the pitch type data would help and the slider is what sticks out. Last year, that pitch had a .176 wOBA and a .167 slugging. 

This season, it sits at .290 and 375 in each category. That’s still not bad, but explains a little bit why righties are suddenly hitting better. It does have a little bit less movement on the vertical and horizontal movement charts, which isn’t super helpful. It’s not like the slider is all that bad, either –

The good news for Mad Max is Vlad Guerrero is the only hitter with a FanGraphs rating above 0.6. Vlad ranks 10th in the league against the pitch so the Jays rank is deceiving. I think I prefer Giolito in a vacuum but Scherzer is likely still the pitching chalk. 

Christian Javier ($9,300 DK/$9,400 FD)

Someone at DK needs to explain to me how Javier can score 30 DK and see his salary drop by $300. That’s flat-out ridiculous. Javier actually possesses a higher K rate than Scherzer at 36.4% through his 13.2 IP this season. One of the differences is he’s throwing his secondary pitches more often. The slider and the curve have jumped up roughly 4% each and the slider especially is the one doing damage. It has 10 of the 20 strikeouts Javier has recorded so far with a .084 xwOBA and a 51.5% whiff rate. Even the FanGraphs rating backs up the slider as Javier is tied at 16th with Jacob deGrom. It looks even better when it’s paired with a fastball like this –

Javier has yet to give up a bomb and the Mariners look like an exploitable matchup, at least for strikeouts. They’re flirting with 26% and are in the bottom half of the league in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against righty pitching. Only Kyle Seager has a FanGraphs rating over 1.0 against the slider of their everyday players. Javier should face off against six RHH in the Mariners lineup and that’s a help to him. He’s smashing the right side of the plate with a .138 average, .211 wOBA, 43.8% K rate, and a 0.82 FIP. 

Walker Buehler ($10,200 DK/$9,800 FD) 

It’s not the best day to spend down at pitching and these four at the top are really bunched up for me. Buehler still carries some concern in my eyes with just a 22.1% K rate and that’s easily the worst of the bunch. At the same time, we just saw him shove for seven innings against the Padres and put up 27.4 DK points with nine strikeouts. I’m not in love with the hard contact at 43.8% but the fastball is doing some heavy lifting. It’s 11th in FanGraphs ratings and has 15 of 21 strikeouts so far. Buehler has picked up vertical movement while losing a bit of horizontal, which is interesting to note. 

The scary part of that is the xSLG and the xwOBA on that pitch are both much higher this season, at .572 and .354 respectively. Last year those numbers were .183 and .198. That is honestly a concern to me, especially since the Reds are a top team against the fastball this year. The flip side to that is the Reds are bottom-six in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ on the road to righties this year. We talked yesterday about the sample being small overall and they are only 21st in plate appearances in that split. It’s still a factor in our decisions. With a career-best WHIP of 0.88 so far, Buehler can be effective without strikeouts for real life. The question is do we want to pay five figures on DK? I lean no and have the top four ranked Giolito/Scherzer as 1A and 1B, Javier a close second, and then a gap to Buehler. 

Starting Rotation 4.27 – In Play 

Zach Eflin – It does not appear to be a slate where we’re going to be able to pay down at pitching. Perhaps the field flocks to someone I’m not guessing right now, but as I mentioned, it does get ugly quickly. Eflin has to get a look in part because the Cardinals don’t profile well against righty sinkers and that’s nearly 50% of his pitches. Additionally, the Cards are still whiffing 26% of the time to righty pitching and Eflin sits at a 19.2% K rate. That does come up to 24.6% to RHH, but he feels just a little pricey. 

Ian Anderson – The matchup suddenly doesn’t look very easy, as the Cubs have gone from 30th to 16th against fastballs with frightening speed. Six of the eight projected hitters have ISO’s over .200 against said pitch and Anderson has a walk rate over 11% on the year. Chicago is ninth in walk rate and 11th in ISO. This could be a tough spot for Anderson, even with a 24.5% K rate. I’m honestly not likely to go here but Anderson’s talent leaves him in the player pool for the deep GPP players. 

Frankie Montas – It’s not a pick that I’m particularly fond of, but he is one of two pitchers I could see the field using as an SP2 on DK with his salary. The Rays are about average in K rate at 24.8% and Montas is respectable at 23.3%. He’s sporting his best swinging-strike rate at 12.3% which is useful as well. Tampa doesn’t profile well against righty sinkers for the most part and the projected six LHH could help out Montas. He’s only giving up a .299 wOBA to that side of the plate with a 37.5% K rate. Let’s keep an eye on the Tampa lineup before making the final call. 

Aaron Sanchez – Everyone’s favorite chef personality takes the hill again tonight and Sanchez isn’t exactly cooking up the strikeouts at a 17.5% rate. He is delivering an excellent ground ball rate at 59.3% which is sixth among starting pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP. The Rockies are also ninth in ground ball rate to righties on the road, so you can build the argument that Sanchez can ground ball them to death here. Perhaps my largest concern is his pitch counts. His high is 82 and last game he was out after just 67 pitches, despite five innings of two-hit ball. 

Starting Rotation 4.27 – Out of Play 

Chris Paddack – I can’t fathom paying $9,000 for him. The K rate is 21% and he’s historically been worse on the road and to lefty hitters. This year, the lefties have just a 15.4% K rate and there is likely to be six in the Arizona lineup. They also are just average in K rate and if that wasn’t enough, the D-Backs are the best team in the league against the fastball. Paddack is throwing it over 67% of the time so far with a .360 xwOBA. 

Corey Kluber – The Klubot appears to be broken with a 6.43 FIP and a 5.91 xFIP. The K rate is just barely 19% and the walk rate is over 15%, scary ratios to pair up. LHH have a .321 wOBA while the RHH have a .442 wOBA, 2.89 HR/9, and just a 15.6% K rate. Trey Mancini, Austin Hays, Maikel Franco, and Ryan Mountcastle all have an ISO of at least .200 against righty cutters which is one of the main two pitches for Kluber. 

Trevor Williams – The righty for the Cubs is a heavy four-seam pitcher that doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters. Six of the eight projected Braves hitters have an ISO of at least .200 and a wOBA of at least .300 against righty fastballs. Atlanta is also fourth-lowest in ground ball rate to RHP, which is going to be an issue for Williams. 

Adrian Houser – I view him as very similar to Sanchez but he’s more expensive for a lower K rate and a higher ground ball rate. Houser leads all starters in ground ball rate but has a paltry 7% swinging-strike rate with a CSW at 19.1%. At that point, let’s save the $700. 

Jeff Hoffman – He’s been solid when he’s not pitching in Coors Field, as tends to happen. I still don’t have a lot of interest in playing someone with a wOBA over .305 to each side of the plate against the Dodgers. He throws the fastball about 55% of the time and the Dodgers are third-best in baseball against that pitch. 

Michael Wacha – He does have a 25.3% K rate but man he just hasn’t put much together outside of the one game against the Yankees. One of the biggest issues for him is he’s getting smacked by RHP to the tune of a .370 wOBA, OPS approaching .900, and a 2.08 HR/9. Oakland is predominantly righty hitters, so this start doesn’t scream out as a good one. 

David Peterson – A lefty against the Red Sox is a tough sell no matter what. Peterson has a HR/9 over 2.00, and it gets worse to RHH at 2.61. They also have a .363 wOBA and Peterson throws the fastball 56% of the time. Boston sits sixth against that pitch and inside the top 10 in our offensive categories to lefties this year. 

Carlos Martinez – The FIP is 4.10 contrasted with the 6.00 ERA for Martinez, but there’s no disguising the 14.3% K rate or the swinging-strike rate under 10%. RHH have a 1.54 HR/9 while LHH only whiff 9.8% of the time against Martinez. That’s not ideal when you’re pitching to this Phillies lineup. 

Jose Urena – I don’t think I want to use White Sox hitters all that much, as they lead the league in ground ball rate to righties. Urena is generating a 53.2% ground ball rate and is better to RHH with a .205 wOBA. He should face six in the White Sox lineup, but don’t be afraid of a lefty stack since he gives up a .357 average and a .394 wOBA to that side of the plate. 

Tommy Milone – The Nationals are second in wOBA to LHP and I’m simply not buying that Milone suddenly has a 14.4% swinging-strike rate to go with a 31% CSW. RHH have a .343 wOBA and Milone hasn’t exceeded three innings so far. 

Mike Foltynewicz – The Angels are fully healthy and dangerous, not to mention Folty is sitting on a 6.78 FIP and a 3.27 HR/9. Lefties especially have gotten to him with a .462 wOBA but even the righties have a 2.25 HR/9. LA isn’t striking out much, only at 23.2% and they are 14th against the fastball which Folty is throwing over 60% of the time. 

Merrill Kelly – The D-Backs righty sports a 13.7% K rate, 5.19 FIP, 46.1% hard-hit rate, and has never had a swinging-strike rate over 9.8%. That’s bad news when you’re facing the Padres. 

Garrett Richards – He has more walks than strikeouts, a 5.74 FIP, 6.26 xFIP, and a .331 wOBA to lefty hitters. Righties have even more success with a .382 mark and this is a fairly easy pass. 

Jose Quintana – The lefty for the Angels hasn’t pitched as bad as the 9.00 would lead you to believe. He did just face this Rangers offense for 21.7 DK points but I have a hard time chasing that. I suppose games log watchers may make him popular but Texas is 15th against the fastball, which Quintana is throwing 55% of the time. RHH have a .380 wOBA when facing Quintana this season. 

Daniel Castano – This man has two strikeouts in 10 IP. Can’t do it, can’t win with him. 

Chi Chi Gonzalez – You can’t be happy to see a 12.7%/11.1% K/BB rate, nor a 1.47 WHIP. The biggest issue for Gonzalez is the .340 wOBA to LHH and the .314 average. The San Francisco lineup boasts a lot of lefties and I’ll pass, even though Chi Chi has a career 4.87 ERA outside of Coors. 

Marco Gonzales – The 6.10 FIP backs up the 6.04 ERA so far, and the HR/9 has exploded to 2.42. Gonzales has seen his CSW decline from 29.8% last year to 24.9% this year, a sizable dip. RHH have crushed him so far with a .472 wOBA, .328 average, and a 3.77 HR/9. Houston can throw out a ton of righty hitters and they could shape up as a great stack tonight. 

Bruce Zimmermann – The struggles to righties have been well-documented for the Yanks, but Zimmermann is a lefty and they’re much more towards league average against lefties. Zimmermann has just a 16.7% K rate, a 1.38 WHIP, and a .365 wOBA to righty hitters. Both the FIP and xFIP are over 5.45 to that side of the plate as well. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.27 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 4.26

Sunday was a pretty solid day for the Starting Rotation article and we have a fresh nine-game slate today to replicate those results. It’s a fairly interesting slate with plenty of options, just like yesterday. That’s led me to add a section to the article moving forward. After the main write-up, we’ll quickly touch on every single pitcher on the slate. It won’t be an in-depth look but this way we’ll hit on everyone. With some extra goodies ahead of us and full write-ups, let’s dig into the Starting Rotation 4.26 and find our path to the green screens! 

Starting Rotation 4.26 – Main Targets 

Corbin Burnes ($10,400 DK/$11,100 FD) 

We won’t be spending a ton of time here because Burnes is simply put the best play on the slate on paper and it’s not relatively close. If Burnes pitched in a league that Jacob deGOAT was not a part of, he would be widely recognized as the best pitcher in said league. He’s the first starting pitcher in the modern era to record 40+ strikeouts through four starts without a single walk. The statistics across the board are simply incredible. His cutter is rated at a 7.7 on FanGraphs. The only two pitches (not just cutters, mind you) that have a higher rating are the Tyler Glasnow fastball at 7.9 and the Trevor Bauer fastball at 7.8.

Burnes has a K rate over 41% and the fourth-highest swinging-strike rate in the league. Miami is striking out at a 25.4% clip to righty pitching so far. Burnes is a stone lock for cash and honestly, you’d likely want to be overweight in GPP. He has to have some sort of regression coming but it’s a smash spot and the DK price is laughable. FD a least is competitive. 

Shohei Ohtani ($7,700 DK/$9,100 FD) 

I honestly feel like this is some sort of trap. The last time we saw Ohtani on the mound, he was still throwing fire with a four-seam that’s averaging 97.2 MPH. The Angels were true to their word and kept him at 80 pitches but Ohtani demonstrated his upside in those four innings with 18.2 DK points. Oh, he did that while putting eight men on base. That feels like an outlier, as does his 26.8% walk rate currently. His fly-ball rate is only 13.3% so far and the swinging strike rate of 13.4% is excellent for his salary. 

With the Rangers whiffing at a league-leading 30.3% against righties, Ohtani may well be chalky. I can’t say I’d argue that in the least, even with it being the second straight start against Texas. We saw White Sox flamethrower Michael Kopech whiff 10 hitters in five innings just yesterday. If there is a concern, it’s how Ohtani has handled lefties so far this season. They have a .333 wOBA and just an 18.2% K rate although Ohtani has only faced 22 thus far. Both the FIP and the xFIP are over 7.00 and it would be foolish to not talk about that at all. Still, I have trouble believing that’s remotely real over the long run. In his career lefties have just a .282 wOBA and a 24.4% K rate. With the Rangers being the worst strikeout team in the majors, my fears are muted for Ohtani. I’ll be playing him a lot, it’s just to be determined if it’s in cash games. 

Trevor Rogers ($8,400 DK/$9,600 FD)

I mentioned with Burnes that he has the fourth-highest swinging-strike rate in the game. Burnes doesn’t even have the highest mark in this game among starting pitchers as Rogers is third. His fastball is remarkably electric, accounting for 23 of his 31 strikeouts to this point. The whiff rate on it alone is 38.7% and that’s despite throwing it so much. Rogers sits seventh in CSW (Burnes does have the advantage there since he’s first) and the mark is 34.2%. His K rate is 35.6% which is top 15 in the league while the FIP is 2.37. I’m not sure most of the public has caught on to just how good Rogers can be if he has it all working. 

That’s not to say this spot is without risk. Rogers does walk hitters at an 11.5% rate and Milwaukee leads the league in walk rate to LHP at 13.8%. The Brewers can hit lefties as well, sitting inside the top 10 in OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. However, we saw yesterday that talented pitchers can still have good games against offenses that look great inside the splits. John Means was a good play against Oakland. With the upside that Rogers has, he could carve up this Milwaukee lineup that is second in baseball in K rate to LHP at 32.1%. That’s a massive number. 

Rogers has been lethal to RHH as well, with a 34.3% K rate 2.48 FIP, and a .229 wOBA. Lastly, Milwaukee has the third-least plate appearances to lefties this year. Their high ranks in offensive categories could be misleading with how poor the offense has been overall. Taking splits out of the equation, they are 25th in wOBA and wRC+ overall. This is not as scary a matchup that it appears to be on paper and I’m 1,000% here for a major pitcher’s duel. 

Deivi Garcia ($7,100 DK)

I’ve mentioned before I can be a sucker for young pitchers of some pedigree and the Yankees’ third-ranked prospect fits the bill. He’s not the easiest to get a handle on, including the pitch mix. Garcia pitched 34.1 innings in the majors last year and only 40 innings in AAA in 2019. That’s not a ton of time at those levels, but he has sported a K rate over 22% at both spots. His WHIP in the bigs last season was only 1.19 and the walk rate was only 4.1%. The fly ball rate over 41% at both stops isn’t totally ideal, but the hard contact rate of 27.4% last year was very solid. The stuff will absolutely play –

Garcia also generated a respectable 11.3% swinging-strike rate and a 25.6% CSW. The Orioles are sporting the fifth-highest K rate to righty pitching so far at 27.2% and are 23rd in ISO to go with 27th or worse in wOBA and wRC+. Garcia was a bit worse to righties in his stint last year with a .344 wOBA and a 2.41 HR/9. Honestly, that would be one of the bigger concerns here since the Orioles are projected to roll out five righty hitters. Even then, the 23.8% HR/FB rate for righties feels awfully high. This isn’t a lineup that should strike fear into us either. I of course wouldn’t preach this pick for cash, but in GPP he has some upside at his salary. Hopefully, FD recognizes a major league pitcher for his next start. 

Julio Urias ($9,700 DK/$9,900 FD)

Urias has been a bit of a tricky pitcher so far. He’s started four games and been excellent in two of them and very average in two of them. Being a young arm and pitching for the Dodgers almost surely means he doesn’t have a long leash, which is a bit scary at this salary. However, nobody will play him with Burnes costing just $700 more. It’s too easy to get there. On top of that, using lefty pitchers against the Reds offense isn’t something I’ll make a strong habit of this season. Urais sports a 26% K rate with a tiny 4% walk rate, and the WHIP is under 1.00 for the first time in his career. Both the swinging-strike rate and the CSW are career-bests at 13.8% and 31.5% as well.  This pitch is just silly and is an example of the talent the lefty has –

I hesitate to use this as a deciding factor because of how early it is in the season. Think about it, most teams are at 20 or so games played. Last year, that was a full third of the year. This year it’s around 1/8th of the year but the Reds have two different offenses – one at home and one on the road. The road version ranks bottom six in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ with a 23.6% K rate. Urias should face six righties and the pitcher’s spot and his splits suggest that would work best for him. The RHH has just a .229 wOBA, a .209 average, and a 25.4% K rate with a 0.50 HR/9. Do I believe he can out-score Burnes? Not particularly. If you play MME, it’s worth it to have some exposure in case he does. 

Mystery Pitcher 

Let’s play a game. We’re going to take names out of this one and just go straight statistics, and you tell me if you want to play this pitcher. The mystery man has a FIP and xFIP both under 4.00 on the season. The K rate is not spectacular at 18.2% but the walk rate is 3.4% and the HR/9 is 0.93. His BABIP is .333, which is high. This pitcher is doing a very solid job of generating ground balls at 50.7% and even the hard contact is solid at 30.9%. Heck, even the barrel rate is only 7.4%. The swinging-strike rate is not good at 7% and the CSW suffers because of it at 23.2%. The good news is the salary is not overly high. 

Here’s where things get very interesting. The mystery man has a .376 wOBA to RHH but the BABIP to that side of the plate is a ridiculous .425. His FIP to righties is 2.81 and the K rate jumps up a hair to 20.4%. That’s great because he will face a righty-heavy lineup. Said lineup is 30th in average, 20th in OBP, 29th in slugging, 26th in OPS, 25th in ISO, 26th in wOBA, 23rd in wRC+, and 16th in ground ball rate. This spot sounds like it could go in favor of the pitcher, right? 

Say hello to Matt Harvey against the Yankees. 

Make ZERO mistake – this is likely the craziest call of the season. It’s not even a case of the Yanks are likely to be chalk, so play the pitcher against them just for the sake of leverage. There is a fairly strong statistical case to make this play, especially at $5,300 on DK as your SP2. He can still get it up there at 94 MPH –

I’d be a little leery on FD where you can’t prop him up with a Burnes or a strikeout artist of your choice. This is NOT a single entry style play. If you’re not doing 3-max or more, I would likely let this one go. I feel strongly that the stats tell us as the Yankees are hitting right now, Harvey has a chance of hitting 12-14 DK points. We all are well aware the Yankees could go nuts at any point. This could backfire spectacularly….or it could work at super low ownership and catapult you up the leaderboards. 

Starting Rotation 4.26 – In Play 

Tyler Mahle – He’s been incredible this season and sits eighth in K rate at 38.8%. I’d want to see the Dodgers lineup. Mahle has owned the left side with a .139 wOBA and a 40.8% K rate. RHH has a .361 wOBA and generally, we’re not going to make money targeting the Dodgers. However, they’re coming off a rivalry series and an extra-innings game last night that was a heart-breaking loss. If there was a time to use a big strikeout arm against them, this could be it. 

Zack Wheeler – The Cardinals are still inside the top 10 in K rate to righty pitchers, so the 26.3% K rate for Wheeler plays well. The 1.31 WHIP and the 1.52 HR/9 for Wheeler leave him as a very low priority target for the Starting Rotation 4.26. 

Charlie Morton – Ground Chuck has a 3.05 FIP and a 3.29 xFIP, contrasting his 3.91 ERA. His K rate is 28.7% and the ground ball rate is 49.1%. That’s the combo you need for Morton to be successful. The Cubs rank ninth in ground ball rate and whiff the sixth-most to RHP. 

Anthony DeSclafani – His finest start of the season has come in San Francisco against this Rockies lineup. I’m always happy to go after the Rockies lineup in their first game outside of Coors after a homestand, I’m just not likely to do it at the expense of Ohtani. DeSclafani has a 23.6% K rate and a massive 57.4% ground ball rate, the latter of which ranks fourth among starting pitchers. 

Sean Manaea – Sort of the same story as DeSclafani as I’m very focused on Ohtani. The Rays are a very feast or famine offense against lefties, with a K rate of 29.5% which is the fifth-most in the league. They also rank inside the top 12 in the offensive categories we value and I feel much better with Ohtani. 

Starting Rotation 4.26 – Out of Play

Jose Urquidy – He’s coming off a poor start but Coors Field so we can’t penalize him too harshly for that. Still, Urquidy is not a high strikeout arm himself at 22.5% and the fly ball rate is over 51%. The Mariners are inside the top 10 in K rate as a team but sport a projected six RHH and Urquidy is yielding a .419 wOBA and 1.74 HR/9 to that side of the plate. 

Zach Davies – A pitcher who has more walks than strikeouts, a 6.00 xFIP, and a 6.7% swinging strike rate against a team that got no-hit yesterday? That doesn’t seem like a great mix. Both sides of the plate have a wOBA over .370 and RHH are at .422 with a 2.8% K rate. There’s no interest in the Starting Rotation 4.26. 

Adam Wainwright – He’s not terrible and is coming off a game where he struck out 10 (!) hitters. The WHIP is over 1.50 and the splits aren’t great with a wOBA over .320 to both sides. Philly is average against the cutter and curve, which are the main two pitches for Waino. Still, I have a hard time trusting any ceiling even though the Phils are coming out from the mountains of Colorado. 

Rich Hill – I’m looking to stack against him. Oakland is 13th against the curveball and Hill throws it 45% of the time. That’s not even counting his 5.48 FIP, 2.20 HR/9, and a .399 wOBA to RHH which the A’s will have plenty of tonight. 

Austin Gomber – The Giants are seventh in walk rate against lefty pitching and Gomber is over 17% himself. San Fran is also fifth in ISO this year to lefties and Gomber has a fly ball rate of over 40%. Pitching in San Fran will help, but not enough to interest me. 

Jordan Lyles – The 20.7% K rate isn’t terrible but the 2.11 HR/9 is and the Angels are 21st in K rate to righties. It’s hard to see much of any upside for Lyles since he’s giving up a .362 wOBA to righty hitters. 

Justus Sheffield – We don’t make a habit of targeting the Houston offense with lefty pitching. The Astros are eighth in OPS and have the sixth-lowest K rate to LHP. Sheffield only has a 22.2% K rate and a 5.13 FIP, so I’ll pass. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.26 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 4.23

Friday is here and we have the typical monster slate on hand for MLB tonight with 14 on tap. The good news is there is a very clear cash pitcher that will be the chalk, so one spot is already decided right off the bat. Finding one other pitcher among the 27 left shouldn’t be too difficult, right? Let’s get right into work in the Starting Rotation 4.23 and find out who we’re pairing with our ace! 

Starting Rotation 4.23 – Cash Targets 

Jacob deGrom ($10,900 DK/$12,500 FD) 

If deGrom was a mere mortal, I might have some slight concerns about the Nationals being a top 10 team against the fastball. We all know that deGOAT is not a mere mortal and he’s destroying everyone in his path even though he’s throwing a fastball almost 70% of the time. I’m not exactly sure how to explain how ridiculous that is. deGrom sports a 39.1% whiff rate on the pitch. Look at the first fastball just climb the ladder. It’s like a UFO –

He leads the league in K rate at 48.6%, swinging strike rate at 23.2% (which is 3% higher than Shane Bieber at second), and is fourth in CSW at 37.5%. The Nationals don’t strike out much as a team at 21.4% but just like the fastball ranking, I don’t care against deGrom. Nothing in the profile projects anything but dominance and he should get five righties. So far this year, deGrom has a -0.26 FIP to the right side of the plate. He’s the easiest play on the board for cash. 

Sandy Alcantara ($7,400 DK/$8,000 FD)

There are a lot of metrics to love for Alcantara to slide in as he SP2 with deGrom tonight. For starters, the pitch mix looks great as the Giants are in the bottom half of the league against all of his offerings. Secondly, he’s dominating the left side of the plate which is exactly what we hunt for against the Giants. The projected lineup has five in it and Alcantara sports a .191 wOBA, .140 average, and a 28.6% K rate to that side. It’s not like he doesn’t whiff righties either since they have a 27.5% K rate. Very few ballparks can offer the same environment that Miami does but San Francisco is one of them. Both parks are in the bottom five in run factor this season. 

One thing we want to try to nail down is why Alcantara has suddenly become a strikeout pitcher. This season he’s at 28% but in the previous 279.2 IP in the majors, he’s never been over a 22.7% rate in a season he’s pitched more than 10 innings. One big aspect that stands out is the change in the sinker/four-seam mix. Last season the sinker led his usage at 34.9%. This year, it’s down to 26.8% and the four-seam and changeup have ticked up in a big way. I don’t think it’s a huge coincidence that those pitches have combined for 22 of 28 strikeouts for Alcantara. This changeup is unhittable, flat out –

His velocity is up a hair, the mix is different and the results show so far. 

Starting Rotation 4.23 – Secondary Targets

Note – For the early look, I would hazard a guess that the deGrom/Alcantara pairing is the cash pair and that’s going to be heavy chalk. For the rest of the way, let’s chat about the other five pitchers that really interest me and we can let the projected ownership be the guide. 

Tyler Glasnow ($10,200 DK/$11,200 FD) 

I don’t believe this will be the cash pair with deGrom since we have a Coors game on the slate. The field will want a piece of those bats so spending over $20,000 on pitching is likelier to be a pivot than the norm. Still, the chance to rack up 22 strikeouts or more is tempting. Moreover, Glasnow is one of the only pitchers in baseball this year that I would say has the shot to beat deGrom in fantasy points on a slate. Only six pitchers have a K rate at 40% or higher and Glasnow is part of that exclusive club. Toronto isn’t a huge strikeout team at 23.7% but at the same time, they struggle against the main two pitches for Glasnow. This overlay is a thing of beauty –

The big righty isn’t getting a lot of strikeouts on his slider, as the four-seam and curve account for 32 of 36 strikeouts so far. All three pitches have a whiff are of 33.6% or higher and what is funny is his slider is still a top 15 pitch in baseball for FanGraphs ratings. The fastball is the highest rated in baseball so far and only Vlad, Marcus Semien, and Randal Grichuk rate well against that pitch. The latter two are also over 23% in K rate so there’s still upside for Glasnow. I continue to be impressed with the strides that Glasnow has made and if the Blue Jays matchup leaves him slightly unpopular, I’m all for it. 

Steven Matz ($8,900 DK/$9,500 FD) 

The matchup via pitch data is not exactly ideal for Matz but he’s been too good to start the year, I have to give him a look here in GPP formats. He’s dropped the sinker usage under 50% and is using the secondary pitches more often. The changeup especially is the out pitch with eight of the 18 total for Matz. The sinker does have nine to his credit and only has a .283 xwOBA. Matz is sporting a K rate of 26.5% so far and he also has a 48.8% ground ball rate, his highest since 2016. 

That last part is important since the Rays rank ninth in ground ball rate to lefty pitching at 45.6%. They also have a 23.5% K rate which is the fifth-highest in baseball so far in 2021. It’s still a dangerous spot since the Rays are top 10 in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and average. Matz has already handled tough matchups before and has yet to drop below 18 DK. Since he’s still under $9,000, I am interested. Tampa should throw out six righty hitters tonight and Matz has dominated that side of the plate with a .189 wOBA, .098 average, and a 23.4% K rate. He could sail past 20 DK points again tonight. 

Sonny Gray ($9,300 DK/$8,100 FD) 

The pitch data for Gray is really outstanding here, as is the ninth-highest K rate to righty pitching for Cards. St. Louis isn’t even out of the 20’s against the main pitches for Gray while sitting 20th in wOBA and wRC+. For Gray’s end of the bargain, he should be at 90-ish pitches tonight after throwing 71 in his first start of the season. His velocity was down just a hair, but nothing that would concern me right out of the gate for him. He gets a little help from the ump but the movement is still great here –

His BABIP walking out of the first start was .417 which will obviously come down, so the K rate of 28.6% is encouraging. Perhaps even more encouraging was the hard contact rate was only 15.4% in the first turn. He generated a respectable 17.3% swinging strike rate as well, along with a 30.7% CSW. I believe Gray could get lost in the shuffle tonight with the players around him in price on DK, but that could be a mistake. Over on FD, he feels very cheap for his strikeout upside tonight.

Dylan Cease ($6,600 DK)

This pick is not for the faint of heart and I’d pass on FD since you only have to pitch one. Cease has some strikeout ability but comes with a catch. The only predictable aspect of his profile is his wild unpredictability. He is leaning more on just his four-seam and slider this year but the walk rate is still through the roof at 14.3%. That’s the career high and that’s saying a lot since his career marks is 12.1%. However, his swinging strike rate is also a career high 11.6% and that’s got me interested in this price tag. He’s still just 25 years old and the talent is there –

Another aspect that catches my eye is Cease has been better to lefties so far this year with a .292 wOBA and a .133 average allowed. Considering the Rangers should play five lefties and hold the highest K rate to RHP in baseball at 29.5%, the path for some ceiling for Cease is easy to see. The path for failure is also pretty simple to find because even though he whiffs the lefties at a 27.3% clip, Cease has a 6.09 FIP to that side as well. You can’t touch him in anything other than GPP but he is the lowest I’d be willing to go in salary. 

Honorable Mention – I wanted to write up my man JT Brubaker for the Buccos but he’s in a difficult spot. The Minnesota Twins are rife with righty power and Brubaker has a wOBA over .400 to the right side. That’s going to be a pass for me. 

The other two pitchers that have to be talked about are Clayton Kershaw and Yu Darvish. These two just faced each other five days ago and both went over 29 DK points. I generally don’t care for pitchers against the same team but these are elite pitchers in the majors. Even the Dodgers are going to have issues with a pitcher that can do this –

On the flip side, Kershaw is among the best to ever do it and still is capable of dominating any given fifth day –

I easily prefer deGrom and Glasnow for Starting Rotation 4.23 but Kershaw and Darvish are in play in both formats and I wouldn’t fault you at all even in tough matchups. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.23 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 4.21

Wednesday brings us some big names on the mound even though we have two separate slates ahead of us, an early and main slate. The early slate is a little more fun at least as name-value but we’re just doing the notes for that since the main slate is seven games. Let’s not waste any more time and dive into the Starting Rotation 4.21 and find out who we like and who to avoid! 

Starting Rotation 4.21 – Early 

Cash – This is a pretty easy starting point because it’s Max Scherzer and there’s not much discussion. St. Louis (thanks for last night by the way, much appreciated) is whiffing over 25% against righty pitching so far. Mad Max has the K rate up to 34.8% so far this season and the walk rate is down to 4.3%. The swinging strike rate is sitting at 17.4% and that would be the highest mark of his career, which is patently terrifying. Scherzer is more or less doing what he always has and that is strike the other team out, even with the velocity down just a tick. No other pitcher on this slate really matches the potential upside. Lock him in. 

At a guess, I would think the field gravitates to Kenta Maeda on DK for their SP2. I totally see why and don’t mind eating the chalk, but I don’t think Maeda is the slam dunk play here. He does feature a 25.8% K rate to righty hitters, and Oakland is likely to feature six. The wOBA to that side of the plate isn’t great for Maeda at .379 and both sides are hitting over .300 against him so far. That might be pretty misleading though. His barrel rate is a tiny 2.1% and the BABIP is over .400. There’s been some tough luck involved for Maeda so far and it’s an easy duo to start building around. 

GPP – If everything was equal, I would say Dinelson Lamet could push Scherzer for the fantasy point lead today. The only aspect holding me back is this is his first start of the season coming off a UCL sprain. That’s scary for a pitcher and in the past two seasons, Lamet has thrown a total of 142 innings. In that time, he’s sported a K rate over 33% and a swinging strike rate of at least 17.7%. That would rank fifth this season among qualified starters, for context. The Brewers are 28th against the slider and the last we saw Lamet, he was fastball/slider primarily. If you need a reminder of how ridiculous the slider is from Lamet, allow the Pitching Ninja to refresh your memory –

With Milwaukee struggling mightily in games not started by Chris Paddack, Lamet has upside but is a very big mystery bag here and I would tread with caution at full price. 

Honorable Mention – I looked at Frankie Montas again but the Twins are ninth against fastballs and he throws a four-seam or sinker about 67% of the time. On top of that, he’ll face 5-6 RHH and only has a 12.9% K rate to go along with a 5.05 xFIP. The Twins are sixth in wOBA, OPS, and slugging against righty pitching so far so this could be a rough ride for Montas. It’s not a question of raw stuff, just the matchup doesn’t look super favorable.

For those who feel like riding the wave, Jose Urquidy is on the board but I wouldn’t go there in single entry formats. Colorado continues to be mostly terrible, even in Coors. Only Oakland has a lower average at home against RHP and they are 20th in OPS along with 26th in wOBA. The K rate is even spiked over 25.4%. Urquidy has a very worrisome fly ball rate of 48.8% but the K rate is just under 29%. We’ve seen multiple starters succeed in Coors so far this season. It’s no guarantee at all, but it’s time to adjust and realize the Rockies offense just isn’t all that good. There is always worry in Coors and Urquidy does utilize a curve, so tread carefully.

Starting Rotation 4.21 – Main

Cash Targets 

Tyler Mahle ($9,500 DK/$8,800 FD)

I’m not sure how often Mahle is going to lead the cash group, but I can’t in good conscience pay over $10,000 for Aaron Civale against the White Sox for the second time in a row. Mahle has come out of the gates on fire with a K rate over 39% and some newfound velocity. His four-seam has jumped to almost 94 MPH and owns 15 of his 22 strikeouts. The barrel rate is only 7.4% so far and the hard contact is under 30%. Mahle also is rocking his career-high in CSW at 33.2%. 

Even though the D-Backs rank high against the fastball, I really love the splits for Mahle. He’s projected to face six lefties and the pitcher spot. So far this season, LHH have a .040 average, .126 wOBA, and a 41.4% K rate. Kick in the 1.65 FIP and those are some gaudy numbers to the left side of the plate. That fastball is generating a 30% whiff rate and he’s pounding it to lefties, throwing it 95 times already. Two of the top four fastball hitters are righty for Arizona and the fifth is on the IL. The metrics really line up for Mahle in this one. 

Jakob Junis ($6,400 DK/$7,300 FD) 

I suppose if my cutter was as good as the one Junis is throwing, I wouldn’t deviate from the plan either.

Look, if DK won’t raise his price we have to keep coming back to him at least in passing. Maybe the field doesn’t come with us and doesn’t trust him. I will say that the trust factor isn’t 100% there but the matchup looks tasty. Junis added the cutter this season and it’s been dynamite. It has supplied 10 of his 15 strikeouts so far to go along with a 55.6% whiff rate and a .238 xwOBA. The Rays strike out at the 11th highest rate in baseball to righty pitching at 26.6%. 

Junis has never been a big strikeout pitcher in his career but adding the new pitch has him sitting pretty through his first few appearances. The swinging strike rate is 12.4% and he’s never been higher than 9.8%. The CSW has followed at 31.4% contrasted with a career average of 27.6%. The overall K rate of 32.6% likely will settle lower but his barrel rate is just 7.1% as well. The smart bet would be the Rays throwing out five LHH to combat Junis but so far, Junis has chewed them up with a .146 wOBA, .136 average, and a 26.1% K rate. Righties are whiffing 39.1% of the time early on and the xFIP is no higher than 3.03 to either side. The metrics don’t suggest a $6,400 pitcher and the Rays are a good matchup to get after some strikeouts. 

GPP Targets (could easily turn into cash targets)

Michael Wacha ($7,200 DK/$7,000 FD) 

Figuring out who’s chalk and not tonight is tougher than the night before. I could see the field chasing the 33 DK Wacha just posted against the Yankees here since the Royals are a much worse offense in the public eye. They do hover around 14-18th in the offensive categories we value but they also whiff 26.9% against righties, ninth-most in baseball. Wacha has dialed back the four-seam usage and leaned into his cutter a lot more. Those two pitches have done well for him with 15 of his 20 strikeouts to this point. The four-seam is the biggest concern with an xwOBA over .400 and that is the best pitch for the Royals. Still, there is potential for Wacha at this price. 

When we target the Royals offense, we want a pitcher who can control the right side of the plate. Generally, that side has the most dangerous hitters for Kansas City. Wacha is mostly doing that with a 33.3% K rate and a .314 wOBA. He’s also only allowing a 27.3% fly-ball rate to righties. I would much prefer not to use him in cash, but we’ll see where the chalk falls. 

Ian Anderson ($8,400 DK/$7,800 FD) 

You didn’t really expect me to not include Anderson on this slate, did you? I really don’t want much to do with him for cash but man this spot could be directly in his wheelhouse. His changeup is lethal when everything is working and it’s a funny coincidence this GIF is against the Yanks –

The Yankees offense has been quite poor so far this year against RHP. I’m laying out the ranks a little differently for them to drive home the point – 

Average – 27th 

OBP – 17th 

Slugging – 29th 

OPS – 23rd 

ISO – 22nd 

wOBA – 21st

wRC+ – 17th 

This is not what anyone expected from the Bronx Bombers even in the relatively early going. It stands out as an elite pitch mix matchup for Anderson since the Yanks are in the bottom-five against his main three pitches. Another good look for Anderson is the splits, as he’s gotten cracked by lefties with a .476 wOBA. The Yankees are projected to roll out six righties and that’s where Anderson has excelled with a .269 wOBA, .171 average, and a 0.87 HR/9. Anderson’s raw stuff is good but his control is spotty at best. It’s over 10% and the Yanks do lead the league in walk rate to righties, over 12%. If Anderson can have his control and continue to generate a 50% ground ball rate, he can succeed against this lineup. If not, it could be a real short trip for him. 

Honorable Mention – Civale, but I have real issues with the salary compared to the K rate. Also, I typically try to avoid starters their second straight time against the same offense. I would bet the field doesn’t go this high, but I also thought Corbin Burnes would be GPP-only last night and he was a building block in cash lineups. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.21 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!