MLB DFS

Yesterday’s slate made it challenging to find a whole bunch of options but tonight’s slate makes up for it. There are at least seven pitchers that I would say can be considered ace-level options tonight and I’m not sure how far I’ll stray from them. We just don’t need to get all that cute with so many quality arms to choose from in Starting Rotation 5.19 so let’s get to work breaking it down! 

Starting Rotation 5.19

Corbin Burnes 

It can be odd to know that the next pitcher is on the slate but he’s not the best option (in my eyes, a least). His cutter would be one of the 10 best-ranked pitches in baseball if he hadn’t missed some time and it’s been absurd. Of the 58 strikeouts Burnes has racked up, 32 have come from the cutter. It’s boasting a 36.7% whiff rate and just a .210 wOBA. Looking at the larger picture, Burnes has a 19.1% swinging-strike rate which would be second and his 37.7% CSW would lead all pitchers by 2.7%. The overall K rate of 45.3% is stunning as well. This isn’t a normal run of the mill cutter –

If you wanted more reason to play him, Burnes has both sides of the plate at a .218 wOBA or lower and he’s at his best pitching to righties. The K rate is 55.4%, the xFIP is 0.54, and the FIP is 0.01. The Royals should play five and two of the lefties are not remotely scary. Burnes is my top option on a crowded slate, especially considering his salary went down after 23.7 DK last game. A reminder that he only threw 78 pitches in five innings, returning from Covid. The salary makes no sense. 

Max Scherzer 

The veteran just keeps on ticking and I don’t particularly have any concerns about him only throwing five innings last game out. The Nationals staked him to a huge lead and it was very likely a case of saving him for the course of the season. Scherzer looks like he pretty much always has at this point with a 35.8% K rate, a 15.9% swinging-strike rate, and a 32.6% CSW. He resides in the top 10 in all three of those metrics while the Cubs still rock a 25.8% K rate to righties, seventh in baseball. I’m never going to be in love with a fly-ball pitcher at Wrigley Field and Scherzer does carry a 51.8% fly-ball rate, a stark contrast to the 39.8% mark he held last year. The HR/FB rate is 14% which isn’t terrible and the 2.98 xFIP doesn’t give us much concern in that aspect. 

There are likely to be four lefties in the Cubs lineup, which eliminates the slider for Scherzer for those four batters. He’s legitimately not thrown a slider to a lefty all year, utilizing his changeup and cutter instead. Both of those pitches have a whiff rate over 30% and 10 strikeouts each, nothing to sneer at. The changeup has been especially lethal with a .061 wOBA allowed, the best of any pitch. This could be the one slate that you can argue you don’t need to play Scherzer with other legitimate options with his upside, but I still expect him to be fairly popular. 

John Means 

The last time we targeted the Rays with a lefty, David Peterson scored over 25 DK points and Means is a very superior pitcher, at least talent-wise. Tampa continues to scuffle with lefties this year, ranking no higher than 22nd in OBP, OPS, wOBA, ISO, wRC+, or slugging. They also have the second-worst K rate to that side with a 31.9% mark, while Means sits at 28% on the year. His swinging-strike rate of 15.9% is 10th and the 31.3% CSW is inside the top 20 among starters. He’s lowered the contact rate (contact made on all pitches) from 75.6% last season to 69.8% this year, which helps explain the jump in swinging-strike rate to be sure. 

His changeup is ranked as the best in the majors, and he bumped it up about 5% from last year. It’s not hard to see why it’s ranked as the top change, as it’s only allowed a .137 wOBA, .106 average, and has a 40.9% whiff rate with 24 of 53 strikeouts. The Rays will likely counter Means by stacking six righties in their lineup but it doesn’t particularly matter for Means. Both sides are almost dead even at about a .197 wOBA and RHH strike out at a higher rate of 29.5%. I love Means and his upside today since he won’t be taken out of the game in the seventh inning while twirling a shutout to get pinch-hit for today.

Trevor Rogers 

Rogers throws a slider and a changeup in there to keep teams honest, but his star pitch is that four-seam to this point. Not only did he add velocity on it this season up to 94.9 MPH, but it has 40 of his 57 strikeouts so far. That pitch is also generating a 30.5% whiff rate, .292 wOBA, and only a .198 average. When a pitcher can throw a four-seam that much and get those kinds of numbers, you know it’s a really good pitch. The overall K rate for Rogers is 32.6% and the walk rate is a bit high, but still under 10%, and his HR/9 is a tiny 0.41. The xFIP tells us that regression is likely to be a thing for Rogers, but why wouldn’t it be at a 1.84 ERA? If the xFIP of 3.44 is accurate, Rogers is still a dynamic pitcher. 

With the Phillies Ranking so poorly against the fastball and flirting with a 30% K rate to lefties, we have to give some attention to Rogers here. He’s had some pretty tough spots and frankly, this isn’t one of them on paper. RHH only have got him for a .258 wOBA and a 33.3% K rate, so I’m not exactly fearful of the Philly lineup. They are no higher than average in our offensive categories and Rogers is that talented that he can flirt with 25 DK points in just about any given start. 

Shohei Ohtani 

Maybe DK has a glitch in the algorithm that weighs the hitting performances too heavily for Ohtani. 

I’m going to say this with emphasis – Ohtani is the most mispriced player on this entire slate. You should NOT in any way be able to play Ohtani and Burnes as your pitchers and have over $4,000 left for your hitters. Don’t let that mistake pass without using it. 

It really all came together for Ohtani in that last start as he exceeded 30 DK points while pitching seven innings. Cleveland has steadily climbed the ranks of K rate to righties and now sits at 25.1%, 11th in the majors. The walk rate is also only 7.3% and that’s 28th, lessening our fears about Ohtani’s walk issues. He continues his MVP campaign here with a 36.4% K rate and a 4.2% barrel rate. The swinging-strike rate has climbed over 14% and the CSW is just under 32%. One of the biggest reasons for these metrics is the splitter, which is just a hair behind Kevin Gausman for the top spot in the majors. 

I’m having trouble coming up with adjectives to describe it. The splitter has 28 of 38 strikeouts, has given up one singular base hit, and has a sixty percent whiff rate. This pitch is ridiculous and Cleveland ranking well against it means nothing to me. The small nitpick with Ohtani is the lineup he faces since Cleveland will likely play five lefties. On the year, they have been the trouble spot for Ohtani with a .319 wOBA and “just” a 26.7% K rate. Righties have whiffed 48% of the time and he should still face four of them. The lefty wOBA also looks good considering a 28.6% HR/FB rate, which is ugly. Ohtani is way too talented to get too concerned with these splits, which are a little worse than they should be. You can play Burnes and Ohtani with the upside of 20-25 strikeouts and have over $4,000 left per player. That is a no-brainer path and even though the slate is loaded up top, this is the way to go for me. 

Clayton Kershaw

Kershaw is coming off a weird start in which he struck out 11 hitters but gave up five runs in six innings. The 3.20 ERA looks about fair with a 2.49 FIP and 3.07 xFIP in tow, along with a 0.71 HR/9. The K rate of 28.1% is almost identical to last season but the 16.4% swinging-strike rate and 33.2% CSW are both up significantly since last season. Kershaw’s slider is ranked fourth in the majors and it has been the star in the strikeout department. Sure, the wOBA is up slightly to .256 and the slugging is .333, but it’s also generating a 44.4% whiff rate and has 45 of 57 strikeouts. He can also still do this –

Kershaw has also been a little unlucky to righty hitters. His BABIP is .340 and that’s driving some of the .310 wOBA to that side of the plate. His K rate is 29.3% to righties and the D-Backs do present a challenge with a 21.6% K rate. They have also hit lefty pitching extremely well, ranking in the top five of all our categories except average. They are ninth there, so while this is Clayton Kershaw we’re talking about, I can’t say he’s a MUST have on this slate as he is the highest-salaried pitcher and I don’t see the need to pay for him. 

Jack Flaherty 

This pitch data spot for Flaherty looks wonderful since the Pirates are missing their best slider hitter in Colin Moran. As it stands, they would rank about 22nd without his rating and they are obviously dead last against the other two pitches. On top of that, the four-seam has been the out pitch with 26 of 48 strikeouts (the slider has 15). The four-seam has just a .224 wOBA given up and oddly only an 18.9% whiff rate. With the Pirates being the worst team in the league to that pitch, it’s easy to see why Flaherty has a great spot as far as pitch data.

You could possibly mount an argument that the upside isn’t super person since the Pirates have four lefties and Flaherty only sports a K rate of 18.3% to that side of the plate. Pittsburgh is only sitting at a 22.9% K rate to righty pitching but this lineup is just very poor overall. Flaherty is sporting a 33% K rate to the right side and the Buccos have four plus the pitcher’s spot so there is still upside to be had here, even if he’s not one of the bigger names on the slate. I can’t say I’ll have a ton of him tonight but he deserves to be mentioned.

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.19 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.18

We have a massive 14 game slate tonight but given the size of the slate, I’m not sure we’ve had a worse pitching slate on the year. There are just some flat-out bad options tonight, so we’re going to adjust the format just a little bit. For tonight, we’re only going to talk about the main targets because these will be the only pitchers that I’m playing tonight. It doesn’t look like Starting Rotation 5.18 is the night to take a ton of chances, so let’s get our core group set and build around them for the green screens! 

Starting Rotation 5.18 – Main Targets 

Brandon Woodruff 

Much as it was last night, I don’t think there’s a very strong case not to lock in Woodruff for cash and be very heavy on him in GPP. We just have to have faith the results will be better than Cole last night. He’s one of the top pitchers in baseball period and is a clear top option on a slate where I might have eight options. The K rate is 33.2% with a 14.1% swinging-strike rate and a 32.4% CSW. Woodruff ranks eighth, 16th, and 10th in baseball in those metrics so right off the hop we have serious upside. The hard-hi rate is down under 30% and Woodruff has kept the fly-ball rate to just 32.4%. Even though his 1.64 ERA can’t stick around forever, it’s not like the 2.30 FIP and 2.69 xFIP give you much of a concern. 

Every single pitch type has a whiff rate over 20% at least and the sinker is the only pitch with a wOBA over .277. If you want to argue that Woodruff has been worse to righty hitters, you are technically correct but the wOBA to that side of the plate is a whopping .221. The K rate to both sides is over 30% and even though the Royals sit at just 23.4% as a team, it’s not enough to get away from Woodruff tonight. 

Zack Wheeler

Marlins Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 

I don’t think I’ll be jamming him into a double ace approach, as Wheeler has not been that reliable, 20+ DK point player every start. He’s certainly shown flashes but has been under 20 DK more times than not this year. Still, he does draw a strong matchup. The K rate is up to 26.1% so far this year which would be a career-high.

One facet that is helping push that along is he’s flipped his pitch usage. Last season, the sinker was his second pitch and the slider was third. This year, the slider has taken over and the four-seam/slider combo has combined for 42 of 56 strikeouts. 

Almost everything in the profile has gotten stronger for Wheeler, and even metrics that went a little backward aren’t bad at all. The 28.4% fly-ball rate is up from last season but certainly nothing to fear. Likewise, the hard-hit rate is barely over 28% and he’s finding the zone with more consistency, up from 53.2% in 2020 to 58.4% this year. Both sides of the plater are at a .285 wOBA or lower and the Marlins are split at four of each hitter in their normal lineup. They also rank sixth in K rate to righties at 26.3% and are 28th in OPS, ISO, and wOBA. Wheeler is a strong play and honestly is even better than normal on this particular slate. 

Lance Lynn 

I’m always a touch leery on pitchers against the same team twice in a row, but Lynn is the kind of guy that can survive it. He just got this same Twins lineup for 30 DK points and his salary only went up by $600. Lynn threw 111 pitches which is one of his calling cards and he whiffed nine batters. He’s the odd pitcher in multiple ways as he’s getting a 36.1% whiff rate on his four-seam and it has 26 strikeouts out of 44 total. It’s weird to see that since he throws some variation of the fastball 98% of the time and there’s not many that can do that, especially with a 12.5% swinging-strike rate. How can you not like this guy?

Lynn is a good candidate to go up against the Twins as they have five righties and some very questionable lefties. To the right side of the plate, Lynn has a .190 wOBA and a .425 OPS to go along with his 37.8% K rate. Lefties are better but still have a 23.9% K rate and just a .266 wOBA. Lynn has a fly-ball rate that is a little concerning at 47.1% but it was over 42% last season and he’s thriving with it. 

Cristian Javier

I didn’t even love the matchup last time for Javier and he ground out seven strong innings for 18 DK points. This one is a bit better for him as the A’s do typically feature 3-4 lefties, but their best slider hitters are lefties. That’s vital for Javier, as his slider is would be tied for sixth in the majors if he qualified. It’s generated a .126 wOBA, 53.3% whiff rate, and 22 of 44 strikeouts. He’s only thrown seven to lefties all year and the A’s only have Matt Chapman that rates well against that pitch. The first time around he scored 26 DK against this A’s offense –

Overall, Javier has a 29.1% K rate himself and Oakland is sitting at 24%. The righty for the Astros has generated a 12.2% swinging-strike rate so far and has just a 30% hard-hit rate. Generally, the better hitters for Oakland are on the right side and that will work out nicely for Javier if these splits keep up. The .215 wOBA to righties is excellent, as is the .457 OPS and the 36.6% K rate. The salary is finally down to where I feel more comfortable in playing him. 

Andrew Heaney 

This might not be the biggest strikeout spot on paper, as the Cleveland offense only whiffs 20.6% of the time to lefty pitching. That may not be the most important aspect since Heaney is rolling into this start with a 33.6% K rate, which would be in the top 10 if he qualified. In years past, Heaney was always unreliable and that’s what the results would tell you this year. However, his 4.75 ERA doesn’t match the 2.95 xFIP at all and we notice the 20.6% HR/FB rate. That’s 5% higher than his career rate and Cleveland is only 18th in ISO to lefty pitching this season. 

What is super interesting is the curve may not be the biggest key to this start for Heaney. Of the 444 total pitches he’s thrown to righty hitters, only 86 have been the curve. The changeup has been thrown 121 times and only Jose Ramirez is anything but terrible against that pitch with a 0.8 rating on FanGraphs. Cleveland could play eight righty hitters and the change has a 29.9% whiff rate with a .264 wOBA. Heaney is also sporting a 36.9% K rate to righty hitters along with a 2.31 xFIP. He’s been much better than it may appear and this could be one of those starts where it all comes together. 

J.T. Brubaker

This may well be as low as I’m willing to go tonight, as the bottom rung is tough. Brubaker has emerged as the “ace” for the Bucs along with Tyler Anderson, just how they drew it up in the offseason. One of the first metrics I look at with pitchers against the Cardinals is how they fare to the right side of the plate. St. Louis typically runs out five plus the pitcher spot (and Matt Carpenter as a lefty doesn’t count for a whole lot) and Brubaker is…tough to gauge. The .334 wOBA and .758 OPS are concerning but there are metrics to support some poor luck so far. 

Not only is the BABIP to that side .327, but the HR/FB rate is also 27.3%. Neither of those marks will hold up and the 2.97 xFIP helps draw that conclusion. The K rate to that side of the plate is his best at 26.7% and the slider is his best strikeout pitch with 20 of 41 and a 37.6% whiff rate. Every pitch but his sinker has at least a 26.3% whiff rate and with Brubaker sporting a 25.5% rate on his own, he makes plenty of sense at this salary. 

Honorable Mention – These talented pitchers are in play in theory, but they are all in some pretty tough spots and I’m not likely to play them – Julio Urias, Eduardo Rodriguez, Hyun Jin Ryu, Sean Manaea, and Michael Pineda. They all have easy-to-use pivots that we talked about. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.18 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.17

Monday is a bit of a smaller slate and the good news is we have one absolutely stud to play! The sort of bad news is the rest of the cast is a little bit dicey, outside of a few options. Baseball is a highly variant sport but the options for Starting Rotation 5.17 look very clear cut, so let’s get to work and lay the foundation for green screens! 

Starting Rotation 5.17 – Main Targets 

Gerrit Cole 

We’re not going to spend a ton of time here because Cole will be the stone chalk tonight and I’m not here to say differently. He’s been among the best three pitchers on the season with the second-best K rate (40.8%) among qualified starters and the best walk rate (1.6%). The FIP/xFIP is 1.13/1.96 while the ERA is 1.37 and he’s cut the HR/9 from 1.73 in 2020 to 0.51 this season. The 15.8% swinging-strike rate is sixth and Texas is a top-three K rate team to righties. Cole also has both sides of the plate under a .220 wOBA and all four pitches are generating at least a 29.8% whiff rate, with no higher than a .244 wOBA given up. 

Even with Walker Buehler and Yu Darvish on the slate, Cole is not pricey enough and the other two are averaging 10-12 fewer DK points per game. If the averages hold up, it’s going to be tough to make up the ground at what is sure to be chalk. I believe the best path is going to be to eat the chalk and find our differences elsewhere, be it with the other starting pitcher or our bats. 

Yu Darvish 

If there’s a spot that could match the potential for Cole at far less popularity, Darvish could be that guy. He gets the Rockies on the road in their first game outside of Coors, and typically that’s an advantage to the pitcher. Additionally, Colorado is 29th or 30th in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ on the road to righty pitching. They do only whiff 23.1% of the time but Darvish is sitting at a 31.2% K rate himself. The swinging-strike rate is down 2.5% from last year to 11.8% but the CSW has only dropped 1.4% to 32.2%. 

Both sides of the plate are under .285 and only lefties give him a slight bit of an issue at a 1.35 HR/9. The good news for Darvish is the lefties in the Rockies lineup aren’t exactly the most intimidating. None have a wOBA over .360 and only Ryan McMahon has an ISO over .150. They should have four righties and the pitcher’s spot and with Darvish sporting a 36.6% K rate to that side of the plate, we can build a path for nearly 30 DK points. Having said that, I do believe Cole is the better play. 

Madison Bumgarner 

We said we would need a difference maker and the way MadBum is pitching, he is a candidate in a spot that I would think he won’t be popular. The perception (and likely reality by the end of the year) is the Dodgers are elite against lefty pitching. That’s not been the case so far with a ranking of 23rd in average, 25th in slugging, 22nd in OPS, 26th in ISO, 22nd in wOBA, and 22nd in wRC+. That’s all coming with a 25.2% K rate which is ninth-worst in the league. After a couple of bad starts, MadBum has found his velocity and turned back the clock to Vintage Bumgarner. Suddenly, the K rate is 27.5% which is his highest rate since 2016. The same could be said for his swinging-strike rate of 12.5% and that’s the best mark since 2015.

The cutter/four-seam mix is both up nearly 3 MPH so far and has 27 of 47 strikeouts so far. The best part is that’s also helped the curveball jump from a 23% whiff rate o a 41% mark this season. The wOBA on every pitch is down significantly and both sides of the plate are under a .300 wOBA. The top of the Dodgers lineup is ever-dangerous, but with the loss of Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager, the lineup as a whole is not as whole as it will normally be. Much like we’ve started to use lefties against Atlanta, we can take a calculated risk with MadBum tonight.

Yusei Kikuchi

I would be very surprised if the Cole/Kikuchi pairing isn’t the most popular on the evening and honestly, it should be. Kikuchi gets the Flow Chart start as a lefty against the Tigers, and he’s enjoying his best season in the majors thus far. The 4.30 ERA is a bit higher than the 3.25 xFIP but it would still be the first time Kikuchi hasn’t had an ERA over 5.00. The K rate is 25.6% and the walk rate is down to 7.4% and while the HR/9 is 1.43, the HR/FB rate is 22.6% and that’s a little absurd. Kikuchi has generated a 51.7% ground ball rate and a hard-hit rate of just 27.4%, which is a great combo. Hitters are swinging and missing at a career-best 13.3% rate, while the CSW has followed to 31.1%. 

The .320 wOBA to righties isn’t spectacular, but he’s been bit by the home run ball from that side more than he would deserve. The strikeouts are evenly distributed across his three main pitches at 11, 13, and 13 while the four-seam/slider combo both have a whiff rate over 34%. In case you need a reminder, Detroit is still leading K rate to lefties at almost 34% and are dead last in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. With Kikuchi rolling up at least 20 DK points in three straight starts, I’m happy to eat the (probable) chalk in cash games especially. 

Casey Mize 

We’ve harped on finding a difference-maker after Cole and Casey Mize could be that style of play in GPP only. He could unlock Cole + a big money stack like the White Sox or Yankees. Mize is still a scary pitcher to use as the metrics aren’t exactly comforting. The K rate overall is under 17% but the Mariners are a top 10 K rate team to righty pitching. His ground ball rate is helpful at 52.2% and that could help dampen Seattle leading in fly ball rate at 41.1%. His best two pitches so far are the four-seam/slider combo and they have 24 of 27 strikeouts. Given the slider is new this season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if it has taken time to get it right during actual gameplay. It has the lowest wOBA of any pitch at .250 and a 26.1% whiff rate. 

Honestly, I was hoping the slider was a key to his three best starts but that was not to be. He used a different secondary pitch every start but that could actually be a good sign. Mize and the Detroit staff are adjusting in-game and having Mize throw whatever pitch is working best with the four-seam on that given night. He has thrown 24 innings on the road with just a 3.38 ERA so that helps slightly. The bottom line is this is banking on the talent and matchup. It hasn’t hit on all cylinders for Mize yet, not even close. He also just turned 24 and has had a K rate over 20% at every minor league stop. On a slate that doesn’t offer a ton of cheaper options, you can hope for the 15-18 DK in a strong matchup but understand the risk is a negative DK score. 

Starting Rotation 5.17 – In Play 

Walker Buehler – At least on paper, this really isn’t the spot to chase Buehler and his upside. He’s throwing the four-seam 51% of the time and while it has generated 27 stakeouts so far, it’s also given up four home runs. Arizona is third against the fastball this season and they could throw seven lefties in their lineup tonight. If the splits hold up for Buehler, that would be an issue. They have gotten him for a .333 wOBA, 2.08 HR/9, and the K rate falls under 25%. When you’re spending that salary, you need to have a route to match or exceed Cole’s upside. I believe that’s going to be very tough for Buehler, but he is so talented that I will not put him out of play. 

Adbert Alzolay – I might actually prefer playing Alzolay at his salary than Buehler. Barely 26 years old, Alzolay has shown some serious upside in the strikeout department at a 29.3% K rate. That would sit around the top 12 if he qualified and he will typically face five righties and the pitcher spot if the Nationals play their typical lineup. With a .197 wOBA to righties, a 2.64 xFIP, and a 36.2% K rate, we want to focus on righty-heavy lineups when playing Alzolay. Washington is not a huge strikeout team at just 21.8% but Alzolay has seen such a major shift in his mix, this could still be a spot to use him. He’s upped the slider usage from 6.7% last year to 46.3%, and it has 25 of 36 strikeouts. The slider also has generated a 41.6% whiff rate and the Nationals are 12th against it, but still in the negatives as a team. None of the lefties in the Nets lineup has a wOBA over Kyle Schwarber’s .347, although Juan Soto will surely get there. Still, this spot is pretty solid for Azlolay. 

Jon Gray – He’s a pitcher I can struggle with sometimes because I don’t think he has any specific metric that we can anchor to and be happy with. Gray is pitching well, but there is a general sense of him being “just a guy”. We can definitely talk about Gray throwing his slider a lot more this year, up almost 8% from 2020. It’s been his go-to strikeout pitch with 27 of his 44 strikeouts overall and it boasts a 41.7% whiff rate. All three of the main pitches sit at a .295 wOBA given up or less, which is a nice metric to have. Gray’s K rate is only 22.9% and the Padres still are bottom-three in K rate to righties, so this doesn’t scream as an upside spot for strikeouts. With a 53.7% ground ball rate and the Friars still without Fernando Tatis, they can still be targeted. 

Starting Rotation 5.17 – Out of Play 

Taijuan Walker – Is this a little harsh? Possibly, since Walker has been solid this year. If he was less expensive, I’d be more willing to take a chance on him but over $9,000 is a lot for a pitcher that has a 23.9% K rate and an 11% walk rate. The xFIP is somewhat concerning at 4.12 since the ERA is 2.20, meaning there is some regression coming. Walker does have the pitch mix working for him, with a four-seam/slider mix as his main two and they both have a wOBA under .200 and a whiff rate of at least 25%. Atlanta is 17th and 20th against those pitches, which does help. It should also help Walker that Atlanta should be righty-heavy and he’s posted a .217 wOBA to that side of the plate. The issue is really the case and I’m not interested in paying this salary. 

Max Fried – I’m leaving him out of play tonight as the K rate has yet to hit 23% and the Mets are not a heavy strikeout team at just 23.2%. They are also second in OBP so if Fried is not striking anyone out, he has some very limited ceiling as far as DK points. Now, he is very certainly better than the 6.55 ERA and the 4.22 xFIP tells us that loud and clear. It’s been a tough start so the numbers are skewed a bit but he doesn’t have a pitch that’s giving up less than a .363 wOBA right now. Since New York is above average in wOBA and wRC+, this just isn’t a spot I’m interested in with a pitcher like Kikuchi $500 more. 

J.A. Happ – He got absolutely blistered by this same White Sox offense last time and at least now the 4.26 ERA is closer to the 5.52 xFIP. We pointed out the last time that his K rate was under 15% and that would come back to haunt him. It did last time and will again. Every pitch he throws continues to have a whiff rate of 20.3% or less, and RHH has a .333 wOBA and 5.81 xFIP against him. 

Jon Lester – It’s Picks and Pivots time, boys and girls! 

Sam Hentges – I’ll continue to say the Angels may not be as fearsome against lefties as some may think, but Hentges doesn’t strike me as the player to continue to test the theory. The FIP is 6.19 and you can’t have a 1.76 WHIP with a 97.8% strand rate. They just aren’t compatible. His hard-hit rate given up is 37.2% and the fly-ball rate is almost 42%, also not great. Hentges has only thrown 13.2 innings, but the zone rate of 35.3% is dreadful and hitters are making contact with 96.5% of swings at pitches inside the strike zone. With righties sporting a .450 wOBA (yes, it has come on a .370 BABIP) and an 8.01 FIP, I don’t see the need to take this chance. 

Dallas Keuchel – To paraphrase Will Ferrell from StepBrothers – I’ll never play Dallas Keuchel…not even if there’s a fire!

Seriously though, you can’t play him. His ceiling is 12-14 DK points and we’re not that desperate. 

Jordan Lyles – Righties have roughed him up this year for a .392 wOBA, 2.66 HR/9, and his fly ball rate is 46.2% with a 40.8% hard-hit rate. All of that is quite bad when facing a Yankees lineup, especially when you possess a K rate under 21%. 

Patrick Sandoval – I honestly had thoughts of putting Sandoval in play. That’s how poor this Cleveland offense has been through some points of the year. I can’t quite pull the trigger as Sandoval hasn’t thrown more than 52 pitches in his three appearances. The walk rate is over 15% and the HR/9 is 3.68, although the HR/FB rate is also over 42%. Still, the issue is with a limited pitch count, even a couple of walks can be a disaster. Cleveland is eighth in walk rate against lefties and only whiff 20.8% so it’s just not enough upside to take a risk. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.13

Thursday brings us the normal split slate but please do note the early slate starts at 12:20 PM, which is earlier than normal. The slate gives us five games to pick from while the evening gives us six for a total of 11 all day. The full breakdown will be in the early slate, so let’s get down to business in the Starting Rotation 5.13 to lay our foundation for both slates! 

Starting Rotation 5.13 – Early Targets 

Jack Flaherty – Past one poor start in miserable conditions on Opening Day, Flaherty has pitched like a bona fide ace. One fairly significant change from the 2020 season is he’s using his four-seam/slider combo about 80% of the time, up from roughly 74%. If you’re playing Flaherty, that’s what you want to see because those pitches have combined for 38 of 42 strikeouts, have a wOBA under .300, and both have a whiff rate over 18% (the slider is 38.8%). 

Milwaukee is still sporting a top-five K rate to righty pitching and Flaherty is just under 26% with a 0.94 WHIP and 0.65 HR/9. Perhaps the most encouraging thing is he’s putting out these performances despite the K rate, swinging-strike rate, and the CSW all down from last year by about 3%. Both the four-seam and the curve (his third pitch) are down 8-10% on whiff rate so if he can get those pitches working for more swings and misses, lookout. He has both sides of the plate down under .260 for the wOBA and even though the K rate to lefties is 19.2%, he should face more RHH than lefties today. 

Corbin Burnes – If we knew he was 100% and ready to go he would be the clear number one. Burnes was asymptomatic while he was out with Covid, so he has been working out and throwing. Still, the Brewers could be careful with him. He could react differently in a game environment as athletes with Covid is still uncharted waters for the most part. Not everyone reacts the same, so there is uncertainty and there is no discount given today. I think we let the projected popularity guide us. If he’s popular, we need to eat it in cash. 

After all, if Burnes is right he has a 45.4% K rate, zero walks, a 19.4% swinging-strike rate, and a 38.2% CSW. All of those three strikeout metrics would rank second if he still qualified and he has the best-ranked cutter in all of baseball. Here’s a reminder of what that looks like –

Burnes also has righties on total lockdown with a .160 wOBA, .363 OPS, and a 56.6% K rate. The Cardinals typically throw out seven of them and if Burnes even goes five innings, he could score over 20 DK points. 

Michael Pineda – I could see not many looking at Pineda after the White Sox went bonkers last night, but remember that the White Sox can struggle to righties and still lead the league in ground ball rate at 52.2%. The lineup is important since they should put five righties out there today. That would be a nice bump for Pineda since he’s better to righties at a .230 wOBA, .175 average, and a 48.9% ground ball rate. The 27.9% K rate to that side of the plate certainly isn’t a bad thing either. Chicago is second against the slider and 13 against the fastball, so the pitch mix data for Pineda isn’t super strong but the slider is also his best pitch. He’s only yielding a .217 wOBA and it has 17 of 32 strikeouts on the season. Pitching is dicey for the early slate, so I’m more willing to go to Pineda than I would normally be. 

Daniel Lynch – Let’s be 1,000% clear – this is a GPP ONLY PLAY and only if you’re bold. Detroit has done more damage than we’ve been accustomed to the past few days, and Lynch is coming off getting hammered by the White Sox. I still firmly believe he deserved better in the first start against Cleveland and Chicago is tough for any lefty to navigate. Right now, Lynch is suffering through a .455 BABIP and has more walks than strikeouts. His metrics look awful, I won’t even try to hide it. This is belief in the toolkit with a four-seam that is averaging 95 MPH and a slider that has a 44.4% whiff rate so far. If he can’t get it done against Detroit with their seasonal metrics against lefties, I’ll let him be for now. 

Starting Rotation 5.13 – Early In-Play 

Lance Lynn – It’s not a particularly easy matchup, but Lynn always seems to get it done and he’s one of the few pitchers you can bank on throwing 90-100 pitches basically every time out. The K rate has jumped up to 29.9% and that would be a career-best, in part due to the four-seam jumping up 5% in whiff rate and racking up 22 strikeouts already. Lynn is also tougher to righties with a .213 wOBA and a 34.4% K rate, which works out since Minnesota typically plays six. 

Zach Eflin – He is interesting today, but not a pitcher I typically get along with if I’m being honest. The K rate isn’t anything to write home about at 23.1% but he’s hardly walking anyone at 1.6% and the hard-hit rate is only 23.4%. Eflin is fastball heavy at almost 55% and that could be an issue with Washington being 12th against that pitch, but he’s surviving pretty well with his mix. The 2.59 FIP would support the 3.38 ERA being real, especially with a 3.22 xFIP as well. I can’t say I’m in love but we only have 10 options to he checks in as a fine one. 

Starting Rotation 5.13 – Early Out of Play 

Charlie Morton – I loved him last time out as was rewarded with absolutely nothing. It’s honestly a little tough to put the finger on what exactly is going on with Morton. The curveball is the most thrown pitch and boasts a whiff rate over 44%, while only giving up a .237 wOBA. His xFIP is 3.58 compared to a 4.98 ERA and his hard-hit rate is only 23.4% but the HR/FB rate is over 19%. I’m not sure facing Toronto is what I want to chase if you’re having issues keeping the ball in the park as the 1.31 HR/9 for Morton would be his worst since 2010. The Jays are top 10 in ISO and Morton has suddenly turned into a reverse splits pitcher, getting smacked by righties. 

Patrick Corbin – Now that Corbin has shown weakness, he’s quickly becoming my Jon Lester. He frustrated the Yankees last start with six fine innings, but only scored 9.1 DK points. The metrics remain just terrible, as every pitch has already given up at least two home runs. He’s throwing the sinker about 30% and it is simply getting destroyed with four bombs, a .572 wOBA, .935 slugging, and just two strikeouts. The top four in the Philly order are Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, Bryce Harper, and Rhys Hoskins. The top three have wOBA’s over .450 and ISO’s over .310. Hoskins “only” has a .399 wOBA and .205 ISO against that pitch. I won’t be looking at Corbin at all. 

Ross Stripling – The results have been a little worse than expected so far with a 4.87 xFIP compared to a 6.61 ERA and the .404 BABIP is helping that along. Still, Stripling isn’t exactly doing anything well enough to challenge the Braves. The K rate isn’t even 22% and the HR/9 is 1.65 despite just a 27.3% hard-hit rate. Righties have utterly crushed him with a .525 wOBA, 1.255 OPS, and a 6.97 xFIP. 

Spencer Turnbull – The big bats for the Royals are mostly on the right side and Turnbull is giving up a .365 wOBA and only carrying a 10% K rate to that side of the plate. With an overall K rate of under 18%, it’s fairly easy to just stay out of this range of pitching. 

Starting Rotation 5.13 – Evening Slate 

Cristian Javier 

The pricing continues to be questionable on Javier, but I’m still interested. Now, the question becomes how interested because this is not a perfect spot for him. Texas does continue to lead or sit in a virtual tie for the highest K rate to righty pitching in baseball. However, the lineup facing Javier might lead to some shakiness from the Houston righty if his splits continue. Not only do lefties have a .330 wOBA against him, but the K rate also slips down to 22.8% compared to 37.3% to righties. Texas has an everyday lineup of four lefties, though three of them are over 24% in K rate. 

My largest fear with Javier is his slider is his best pitch and it’s not particularly close. He’s throwing it about 25% and it has only given up a .098 average, .122 wOBA, whiffed 20 hitters, and carries a 56.7% whiff rate. No other pitch is over 23.3%.

The issue stems from he just doesn’t throw it to lefty hitters. Javier has only utilized it seven times all season to lefties. When four hitters nullify the pitcher’s best weapon, it makes me a little nervous. I think he’s still one of the better arms on the slate overall, but that speaks more to the slate being rough for pitching. 

Trevor Rogers

I wonder how the field reacts to Rogers because this is one of his tougher challenges on the season. Arizona is no worse than third in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefty pitching. They’re doing that while only striking out 20.8% and walking 10.7%, both top-seven marks. Even average is eighth for them so they are one of the most dangerous offenses in the game to lefty pitching. Rogers has found about 2 MPH on his four-seam and it has 35 of his 50 strikeouts so far with a 33% whiff rate. He’s throwing it over 62% of the time which helps explain the 33.1% K rate and the 16.5% swinging-strike rate. 

He’s dominating righties with a .250 wOBA and a .178 average. It’s funny because it’s been lefty hitters that have done some damage with a .346 wOBA so far but the BABIP is .438 so I don’t think we have much reason to think that stays. His changeup is still a weapon as well since it has the eighth-best ranking for FanGraphs and a 37.5% whiff rate. All in all, I like Rogers but this is not a cakewalk. He’s pitched well against good offenses before, but the price doesn’t leave a lot of margin for error. 

Zach Plesac

This play has all the makings of me cautiously starting to think Plesac is turning things around only to see him get smacked. He’s hit six and seven strikeouts in his past two starts, but the K rate is still under 20% for the season. Considering it went up to 27.7% last year, we need to explore why and it doesn’t take long to figure it out. His slider and change aren’t generating nearly the whiff rate they did in 2020. Last season, they were 42.7% and 35.6% each and this season they’ve plummeted to 28.6% and 16%. Needless to say, the difference is stark. 

When we look at the past two games, we can see the secondary pitches have started to look a little better. 

This game was from May 2nd, and the changeup got up to a 27% whiff rate. Sure, the slider was not working for him that day but at least something else was getting swings and misses.

Likewise, the start after that saw the changeup not work out but the slider was up to 43% and the change at least got some called strikes. The overall arc here is the strikeouts have started to come back a little bit when there’s been a pattern of whiff rate starting to creep up towards 2020 levels. On top of all that, there’s this nugget as well –

There’s certainly no guarantee that happens tonight, but it’s at least a step in the right direction with Seattle being a top 10 team in K rate. Plesac will face six righties in the normal Seattle lineup and they do have the better success, but both sides of the plate are under a .295 wOBA. The HR/FB rate to righties is 21.1% which is driving the 1.77 HR/9. It’s not the best spot per se, but what is on the evening slate?

Logan Gilbert 

Major League Debut 

You guys know me well enough to know that Gilbert was going to be in the main write-up. He and fellow Mariner Jarred Kelenic (who at $2,000 cannot hurt you in your lineup tonight, a worthy punt) are both making their debut tonight. The scouting report on Gilbert says he’s an advanced young pitcher, with potentially four “plus” offerings in a fastball that hovers around 93-95 MPH, a slider, a curve, and a changeup. 

The minor league track record suggests big potential K upside for the big righty as well. He’s never been lower than a 28.7% K rate in any season pitched and has been split about being a fly-ball or ground ball pitcher. It likely settles in as fine, if maybe not that great. The pitch mix spot looks excellent as Cleveland is in the bottom-eight against three of his four pitches. They are also inside the top 10 in K rate at almost 25% and are below average in wOBA and wRC+. The bottom line is at $4,000 with Coors Field on the slate, we can take some shots but it will almost certainly be GPP only. 

Honorable Mention – Sean Manaea, Mike Foltynewicz 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.13 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!