MLB DFS

Starting Rotation 5.27

Thursday brings us all-day baseball, as we have five games in the afternoon and then another six in the evening. We’ll be doing some quick notes on the six-game slate and then the full breakdown for the seven-game, so let’s get right to work in the Starting Rotation 5.27!

Starting Rotation 5.27 – Afternoon

Note – The Mets/Rockies game is on the afternoon schedule and it looks as if Marcus Stroman will pitch the first one. Please refer to his writeup from yesterday to read why we like him, and you could potentially make a case to fade Shane Bieber on this slate with Stroman and the next pitcher. 

Pablo Lopez – This could be weird considering the next pitcher on the list, but Lopez might well be my overall favorite option. Philly is 21st against the changeup so far and that is the main pitch for Lopez with 28 strikeouts, a .287 wOBA, and a 24.6% whiff rate. The Phillies are also right on the verge of being a top-five strikeout offense in the majors at 26.2% and this game is in Miami. Lopez has always had very significant home/road splits and this year he’s been lights out in Miami. Through 29.2 IP, he’s accumulated a 0.61 ERA, .222 wOBA, 0.91 WHIP, and a 28% K rate. With Bryce Harper out of this lineup on top of everything else, all the boxes are checked for Lopez. 

Shane Bieber – We all expected some regression for Bieber this season but it’s hit harder than expected to this point. The .354 BABIP continues to drag him down but the 2.93 FIP/2.72 xFIP also gives us hope it quiets down soon. Bieber still has a 35.5% K rate which is the highest on the slate by a wide margin and the Tigers are still sitting second in K rate to righties at 27.1%. Lefty hitters are the main portion of the Detroit lineup with five and they have a .333 wOBA. They also have a 38.6% K rate and a .393 BABIP so you have to feel like those numbers come down at some point. 

Matt Boyd – I still can’t say I love the 4.72 xFIP but Cleveland isn’t a scary lineup to lefty pitching, especially in their current state. They sit 26th in wOBA, 25th in wRC+, 17th in ISO, 26th in OPS, and 27th in OBP. It’s true they may not strike out a ton at 22.1% and Boyd is under 20% for his K rate, but getting six or seven strong innings is what you’re looking for here. Boyd is sporting a 28.2% hard-hit rate and he’s pumping in strikes to start hitters with a 73.1% first-strike rate. Only five pitchers sit above 70% and only Julio Urias is higher than Boyd. He’ll typically see eight righty hitters but even then, Boyd has them held to a .286 wOBA and a .641 OPS. 

Honorable Mention – Tyler Anderson, possibly Kyle Hendricks but he’s been tough to get a hold of this season. I lean towards being fine playing him since his splits to lefties look terribly but include a .458 BABIP and a 3.91 xFIP. I do prefer Boyd for $300 more. 

Stacking Options 

1. Padres against Adrian Houser (Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado (if active), Tommy Pham, Wil Myers) 
2. Cubs against Tyler Anderson since it is the fourth time they’ve seen him (Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Ian Happ)
3. Marlins against Spencer Howard (Jesus Aguilar, Jazz Chisholm, Miguel Rojas, Corey Dickerson, Garrett Cooper)

Starting Rotation 5.27 – Evening 

Note – The Dodgers and Giants game is weird. Neither team has announced a starter, but both would line up for Walker Buehler and Alex Wood. Provided both are announced, I like both and would assume Buehler will carry the ownership up top. The Giants are leading the league in K rate to righties and have seen the offense weakened a bit with the loss of Brandon Belt. Wood is quite simply far too cheap. Yes, the Dodgers can be terrifying against lefty pitching but he’s under $7,000. This is a pitcher that has a 25.5% K rate, a 59.6% ground ball rate, and the ERA/FIP/xFIP trio are all under 3.00. Los Angeles also whiffs over 25% of the time against lefty pitching this year. If Wood can replicate his 17 DK point outing from the last game, I’d be happy at $6,900. We just need to know if they start. 

Chris Bassitt 

The Angels lineup is a lot less intimidating when Mike Trout is on the sideline, not like that’s going out on a limb to say. Bassitt has been great so far with a 3.69 ERA and it’s mashed almost exactly by a 3.66 xFIP. The K rate is almost 26% and batters are having a hard time hitting the ball with authority at a 5.4% barrel rate and a 25.9% hard-hit rate. The swinging-strike rate is a career-best at 11.6% and Bassitt can thank his O-contact rate going from 68.2% last year to 58.9% for that. The righty for Oakland is pretty even as far as splits with lefties sporting the better .301 wOBA. Both sides whiff about 25% and neither side is over a 1.16 WHIP. For the salary, it’s hard to find better consistency. 

Shohei Ohtani

Normally, Ohtani is a building block on any slate for me but I think we need to have some caution here. While the Angels insisted there were no injury concerns, Ohtani’s velocity was down in his last start by 3-6 MPH. That is a huge drop and effectively took the four-seam out of the mix. He threw it 40 times but it was not nearly as efficient and he threw his cutter 32% of the time, knowing the fastball wasn’t there for him. If his four-seam/splitter combo is down 5-6 MPH, Ohtani is not going to be that great of a pitcher. 

Even with the struggles last game, the splitter still only has two hits given up and a 58.2% whiff rate with a .084 wOBA. Oakland’s lineup typically features five righties and that should help Ohtani as well. The right side of the plate only has a .200 wOBA, .401 OPS, and a massive 44.8% K rate. If Ohtani is right, I would absolutely love him here since Oakland is over 24% in K rate to righty pitching. There is a significant risk because there is no way to know where the velocity sits before the game starts. 

Dylan Cease 

I’ll be frank – I had Cease on my list before I saw the DK pricing. It is egregious and I think the salary alone leaves him as a GPP-only player tonight. Having said that, the spot is excellent for him. His slider has been a difference-maker this season with 23 strikeouts already and a whiff rate over 51%. It still gets hit a little bit with a wOBA over .300 but at least it hasn’t given up a home run yet. What we like is the K rate overall at 29% because the Orioles are striking out about 24% of the time. 

Their walk rate is only 8.1% and that is 21st. That is a big help for Cease and his 12.3% walk rate, which is quite high. His xFIP is still only 4.15 so even with some of his weaknesses, the K rate is worth chasing. Baltimore is no higher than 26th in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. I just wish he was an awful lot cheaper and do prefer Buehler, Ohtani, Bassitt, and Wood ahead of Cease. 

Honorable Mention – Sonny Gray, Stephen Strasburg 

Starting Rotation 5.27 Stacking Options 

1. White Sox against Bruce Zimmermann (Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Yermin Mercedes, Nick Madrigal Andrew Vaughn)
2. Cardinals against Seth Frankoff (Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt) 
3. Mariners against Kolby Allard (Mitch Haniger, Ty France, Kyle Lewis)
4. Rangers against Chris Flexen (Adolis Garcia, Joey Gallo, Nate Lowe, Willie Calhoun)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.27 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.25

Before we get rolling, just wanted to say a huge thank you to Brian for covering pitching Monday. He’s a pretty cool dude and came in very clutch for me, and it’s much appreciated. Tonight brings us no less than four ace pitchers and about six more that are either on the verge or at least their own team’s ace. That makes for a fun time for me and I’m not sure I’ll be spending down too much tonight. Let’s get to work for the Starting Rotation 5.25 and see who we’re going to target for us to find those green screens once again! 

Starting Rotation 5.25 – Main Targets 

Jacob deGrom 

I’m not particularly concerned with the injury at this point since deGrom tortured the St. Louis minor league team with no setbacks. If the Mets were concerned at all, they wouldn’t be letting him pitch and there’s no reason for us to fade him. He leads the majors in just about everything we could ask for, including a 46.1% K rate and a 21.6% swinging-strike rate. All three of his pitches boast a 36.6% whiff rate or higher. 

His 0.68 ERA is backed up with a 1.08 FIP and a 1.77 xFIP, so there’s not even that much concern there. Unsurprisingly, Colorado is much worse on the road with a 26.1% K rate and the 30th ranking in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. There just isn’t much left to be said here. I suppose since he only threw 41 pitches, he could be somewhat limited but I’m not playing it like that tonight. Play him and let’s move on. 

Corbin Burnes 

Regardless of what offense he’s facing, the DK salary of $9,100 is flat-out absurd. I’m assuming deGrom (rightly) gets all the attention which could leave Burns much lower in popularity than he should be. Yes, the Padres are a tough matchup and they just don’t strike out at 20.1% but Burnes has been a different animal this year. His K rate is just under 45% so far this season and the ground ball rate when teams aren’t striking out is 51.3%. What’s pretty interesting with that metric is the Padres are quietly fourth in ground ball rate at 46.6%. His hard-hit rate is also down at 21.8% and teams just can’t get the barrel to the ball that much at a 6.4%. 

The cutter for Burnes continues to be just other-worldly with a .179 average, .212 wOBA, 33.5% whiff rate, and 35 of 67 strikeouts. The slider, curve, and change are all over a 58% whiff rate on top of that and helps explain why the K rate is so high. If he comes in much less popular than deGrom, I’m not willing to say he’s a “pivot” in the normal sense because deGrom is the main play on this slate. However, in MME formats you can take some chances and it could open the door for a double ace approach that is (possibly, possibly not with the ridiculous salary) contrarian on this slate. 

Kevin Gausman

If Burnes isn’t the most disrespected pitcher at his salary, Gausman may well be next in line. He’s started nine games and hit at least 20 DK in eight of them and is averaging over 25 per contest. On the last main slate he pitched, he was priced at $7,800 and scored 27.1 DK. His past two starts haven’t been on the main slates but he’s scored over 30, so naturally, DK moved his price down to $7,200. You may not know it by the attention he gets, but Gausman is rocking a 29.6% K rate and a 1.66 ERA. The FIP/xFIP combo is 2.48 and 3.21 so that’s not crazy high to cause a ton of concern. He is also 12th in the swinging-strike rate at 14.8% and 31.4%, respectively. 

The four-seam is ranked as a top-five fastball in the majors and the 7.8 rating for his splitter is tops by a whopping 5.6. Granted, it’s not a common pitch but the splitter has been phenomenal. It has 44 strikeouts out of 67 (the four-seam has all of the other ones), a .165 wOBA, and a 47.5% whiff rate. It’s interesting to see him be slightly worse to lefties at a .233 wOBA since he leans on that main two pitches almost all the time to lefties. It also tells us that Gausman has been elite when that’s the worst side. Lefties whiff 33.9% of the time and Gausman should face seven if Arizona plays a normal lineup. 

Lucas Giolito 

We’ve said for a while that there’s an ace in Giolito, even if that version was hiding for a few starts. Well, it came out and shoved for eight innings and 39 DK points last start and the price does not match the potential upside. To be clear, I will play Burnes for $400 more most of the way, but if the field goes that same route Giolito could get lost in the shuffle. If we’re talking about this year’s splits, Giolito could face some issues as righties have a .349 wOBA and .822 OPS this season. However, that might be a little misleading as the xFIP is 3.44 because his HR/9 is 2.63. That tends to happen when the HR/FB rate is 25.9%, and not likely to continue. 

One of the largest culprits of the up and down nature of Giolito’s season so far is the four-seam. In 2020, it finished at a 29% whiff rate, .260 wOBA, and a .201 average with 48 of 97 strikeouts. This year has seen it come down to an 18.9% whiff rate, .321 wOBA, .208 average with 16 of 61 strikeouts. Additionally, he’s already given up three home runs on it compared to four last season. Seeing St. Louis rank so low against that pitch is encouraging for Giolito, especially if he’s not popular. 

Clayton Kershaw 

Is the spot horrible on paper? No doubt. Not only do the Astros destroy the slider as a team, but they are in the top-five in every offensive category aside from ISO with just a 16.9% K rate. Normally, I won’t even give lefties against Houston a second glance. Clayton Kershaw is not the normal everyday lefty and his salary is an inexplicable $8,000 on DK. His K rate of 29% is the best it has been since 2017 and the HR/9 is also the best since 2016, so there is a very clear path to success here even if it’s filled with danger. 

Houston is by far the best team against the slider but Kershaw’s has been just video game level good this year. Despite throwing it as his main pitch, it has generated a 45.4% whiff rate, .249 wOBA, and a .189 average with 51 of his 65 strikeouts. The .311 wOBA to righties is skewed a little bit by the home runs, which seem to be unlucky so far. Kershaw has a 2.98 xFIP and a 30.2% K rate to righties while suffering through a .333 BABIP. There is really no reason for him to be priced so low. There is a great chance he goes out and does Kershaw things and if folks don’t play him, they question why they didn’t go after an $8,000 Kershaw. 

Honorable Mention – Max Scherzer, Joe Musgrove, Rich Hill, Cole Irvin, Kyle Freeland for the bold 

Starting Rotation 5.25 Stacking Options 

1. Rays against Brad Keller (Randy Arozarena, Joey Wendle, Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe, Mike Zunino)
2. Yankees against Steven Matz (Aaron Judge, Kyle Higashioka, Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez)
3. Giants against Corbin Martin (Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Mike Tauchman) 
4. Angels against Hyeon-Jong Yang (Anthony Rendon, Shohei Ohtani, Jose Rojas, Justin Upton)
5. Cleveland against Tarik Skubal (Jose Ramirez, Jordan Luplow, Josh Naylor)
6. Twins against Dean Kremer (Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff, Max Kepler, Josh Donaldson)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.25 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.23

We have a 10 game slate for Sunday and while it’s not exactly brimming with big names, it does present us with some pretty fun options. There are multiple cheap starters worth looking into today which could help unlock just about any stack we want. Let’s get rolling and talk about who we should be targeting to find those green screens once again in Starting Rotation 5.23!

Starting Rotation 5.23 – Main Targets 

Freddy Peralta 

One of the many facets that pop off the page for Peralta is both his main pitches rank inside the top 12 in the majors. The four-seam is 12th and the slider is sixth in their categories, and they have combined for 75 of his 79 strikeouts. Neither pitch has yielded a wOBA above .269 and they both also have a 32.4% whiff rate or higher. So while the Reds rank well against the fastball, I’m not that worried because he’s also third in K rate at 39.7%. The swinging-strike rate is also seventh at 15.4%. He doesn’t even throw the changeup much but it’s still nasty –

The Reds lineup could potentially work in his favor as well. With Joey Votto and Mike Moustakas on the IL, Cincinnati should put forth five righties and the pitcher spot. Peralta has struck out that side of the plate to a 47.9% rate and has a 1.94 xFIP. I would much rather play him than Zack Wheeler against Boston at this salary range. 

Hyun Jin Ryu 

Oh, look, another lefty facing the Rays! Much like yesterday, I’m already interested due to the strikeout upside the Rays have shown when they face lefty pitching, over 30%. Through his eight starts, Ryu has shown a 2.94 FIP and a 3.08 xFIP, which gives us confidence in the 2.51 ERA. His K rate has come down slightly to 24.5% but the walks are down under 3% and the WHIP is under 1.00. It’s been very difficult to get a hard hit against Ryu as that rate is only 23.1% and his swinging-strike rate is right in line with his last four seasons at 11.7%. 

Righties have a .285 wOBA against Ryu but he also uses the four-seam/cutter/changeup mix mostly to the right side. Those three pitches have accounted for 39 of 45 strikeouts which leads me to believe the 22.6% rate he has right now is not here to stay. Ryu’s O-Contact is at 68.5% right now compared to his 61.7% rate so this could be the game where the K rate catches up to everything else a little bit. 

Max Fried 

Since coming back from injury, Fried has started three games and scored 22, 16, and 23 DK points. During those three starts, he’s averaging a 27.7% K rate, a 1.00 WHIP, and a .253 WHIP. Even if we zoom back and look at the whole season, the 5.46 ERA does not make sense with the 4.22 FIP and 3.92 xFIP in tow. His hard-hit rate is 25.3% and Fried has generated a 12.6% swinging-strike rate overall. Both the slider and curve have generated a whiff rate over 36.5% each and has 24 of 32 strikeouts thus far. 

The Pirates have struggled against lefties this season with a 24.5% K rate and were just handled fairly easily by Drew Smyly, who is not the same caliber pitcher at this point in their careers. Pittsburgh also ranks 28th in wOBA and OPS along with 26th in ISO, so the spot really works out well for Fried as he finds his footing in the 2021 season. 

Casey Mize 

It’s possible that Mize is starting to figure things out but I do think we should approach him with some caution. Any result that comes against Seattle has to be weighted since they are a dreadful offense. Still, it can’t be a bad thing for Mize’s confidence to go out and shove for almost eight innings. The K rate lacks at 17.8% but he flashed upside with eight last game and the 53% ground ball rate is very solid (it ranks eighth in the majors). Both the four-seam and slider have a whiff rate right around 27% and past one really poor start against these Royals, Mize hasn’t been all that bad. 

Since he’s faced the Royals’ offense since the disaster and posted a serviceable start, I feel a little better about him here. The .297 wOBA to the right side of the plate is his best rate and Kansas City plays five typically. Their most dangerous players are on that side as well for the most part. The K rate has been slightly lower at 16.8% but sometimes you have to take a leap with young pitchers. I wouldn’t go here in anything other than GPP but Mize has such a pedigree that I’m excited anytime he strings together three good starts. 

Kris Bubic 

The 23-year-old lefty is back on the mound for the Royals today and he’s certainly earned the spot so far. In 18.2 IP, he’s sporting a 0.96 ERA with a 3.10 FIP and a 4.50 xFIP. While it’s quite clear he won’t keep an ERA under 1.00 and will suffer some regression, his price has not come up nearly enough yet. Bubic has generated a ground ball rate of 59.6%, helping mitigate the 12.9% walk rate (it was 9.9% last season and hasn’t been an issue in the minors very much at all). He has also only been hit hard 17% of the time so far and his changeup has a 33.3% whiff rate. It has eight of the 12 strikeouts and while Bubic is only at 20% of this K rate, he’s only $5,000. 

We talked in Friday’s article about how the Tigers have improved a bit offensively lately, but they are still a spot to attack. Bubic has three straight games of at least 14 DK and has been adding to his pitch count, working it up to 85 in the last start. There’s not much of a way around the 5.22 xFIP to righties, which is a concern but it does look better for his career at 4.48. The career K rate to that side of the plate is also 21.1%, more than acceptable at this salary and against a team that whiffs over 30% to lefties on the season. 

Honorable Mention – Cristian Javier, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Yamamoto but I’m much more likely to use Bubic

Stacking Options 

1. Nationals against Matt Harvey (Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Josh Bell, Josh Harrison)
2. Astros against Mike Foltynewicz (Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley)
3. Cleveland against J.A. Happ (Jose Ramirez, Jordan Luplow, Harold Ramirez)
4. Blue Jays against Josh Fleming (Vlad Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Bo Bichette, Jonathan Davis)
5. Orioles against Patrick Corbin (Trey Mancini, Austin Hays, Anthony Santander, Pedro Severino, Ryan Mountcastle)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.23 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.22

We get the normal split slate on Saturday with seven in the afternoon and six in the evening, so there is plenty of baseball to choose from! The early slate brings one of the bigger names to toe the rubber in the league but there are options behind him. The evening slate is pretty similar in that there’s one that could garner some serious attention but isn’t an absolute slam dunk. The difference is the other options on the evening slate are pretty rough. Let’s dig into Starting Rotation 5.22 and figure out who we need to be looking at and why to find green screens for both slates! 

Starting Rotation 5.22 – Afternoon

Shane Bieber

I was a little excited when I saw Bieber because he’s been a bit of an odd pitcher this season. The ERA has bumped up from 1.63 to 3.17 this year and he’s just been more hittable, as the WHIP went from 0.87 last year to 1.22 this season. Now, the walk rate is up almost 2% but that wouldn’t explain everything, especially since the K rate is still above 36%. One of the biggest differences is just somewhat bad luck, as the BABIP is .341. The jumps have come from the four-seam’s average of .253 up from .210 last year and his curve has gone from .095 to .200. The whiff rate on both pitches are also down, which might explain the zone rate siting at 49.5% after 42.6% last year.

What this all tells me is Bieber has simply had some bad luck so far and there’s nothing to get too carried away with. Maybe he’s a little bit riskier but hitters are making far less contact when they swing at pitches outside of the zone, 32.1% in 2021 compared to 41% in 2020. Bieber should face five righties and he’s been better to that side of the plate with a .287 wOBA. On the flip side, lefties have a higher wOBA but also strike out at a 40.5% and the xFIP to both sides is under 2.75. The bottom line is I’ll still play Bieber with limited fear.

Lance McCullers

Based on the last six game logs, McCullers would be due a big 30+ DK point game as he’s alternated between scoring in the teens and then into the ’30s. Anyways, he’s sporting a 27.7% K rate thus far and the 1.07 WHIP would be the best he’s ever produced. The 55.5% ground ball rate is fourth in the league and Texas is third against righty pitching, which is a nice fit for McCullers. His curve also remains a significant weapon with the second-best rating behind Julio Urias, a .197 wOBA given up, and a 37.2% whiff rate.

He throws it to lefties almost exclusively so Texas playing four helps him out. The splits overall would tell us that no style of lineup should hinder McCullers as both sides of the plate are between .260 and .265 for the wOBA. They also both whiff right about 27.5% and Texas is still at a 26.8% K rate to righty pitching. I don’t particularly want to pay the premium for Sonny Gray and would rather just play McCullers in just as good of a spot. 

Pablo Lopez 

I’m honestly not even bothering listing the ranks for the Mets because their lineup is unrecognizable right now. I mean, it looks like a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup after losing Pete Alonso yesterday as well. 

That is really bad folks and Lopez should be able to find his footing after two sub-par starts in a row. He’s not going to bowl you over with strikeout upside at 22.7% but he gets a good deal of ground balls at 44.9% and the hard-hit rate is under 31%. The changeup and four-seam are doing virtually all of the strikeout damage with 41 of 46 on the season. Perhaps the best facet for Lopez is he’s at home, which has always mattered for him and continues into this season. 

The righty has thrown 22.2 innings at home and 26.1 on the road. When he’s in Miami, the ERA is 0.79 and on the road, it balloons up to 5.13. His career difference is over three runs a game, so this is not a big surprise. The K rate jumps up to 27.2% and the HR/9 is 0.40, so he’s really not all that expensive when looking through that lens. 

Honorable Mention – Sonny Gray but my goodness the DK salary, Matt Boyd if you prefer not to spend on pitching in both slots. You can roll the dice with Brady Singer but if one of his two pitches isn’t working, it’s over for him. 

Stacking Options 

1. Braves against Mitch Keller and whatever is left of the Pirates bullpen after last night ( Ronald Acuna, Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, Freddie Freeman, William Contreras)
2. Nationals against Bruce Zimmermann (Trea Turner, Josh Harrison, Yan Gomes, Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman)
3. Orioles against Jon Lester (Trey Mancini, Austin Hays, Pedro Severino)
4. Astros against Jordan Lyles (Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley) – this one will be tough to make work with high-end pitching. 

Starting Rotation 5.22 – Evening 

Walker Buehler 

Buehler is coming off an excellent start in a spot that could have gone south for him, so that does help my interest tonight. It also helps that the rest of the options are not very good and he’s the clear-cut number one option. It is interesting to note that the cutter gives up the highest wOBA at .327 and that is close to his second-most used pitch this season. 

It has also given up two home runs so that stands out as a potential trouble spot but Buehler also exhibits a 27.5% K rate, a FIP and xFIP combo under 3.55, and a 30.8% CSW. His hard-hit rate is not ideal at nearly 40% but at least the ground ball rate is 40.9%. I’m also not in love with the .298 wOBA, 1.64 HR/9, and 23.9% K rate to the left side of the plate but he’s still one of the lead options on the evening. 

Robbie Ray 

The last game out for Ray was sort of what I think we can expect from this point on. He gave up four runs and got taken out of the yard multiple times, but he also only walked one and whiffed nine through just 5.2 IP. He’s been super consistent on his pitch count with every start but the first one of the season over 90 pitches. His 6.6% walk rate is ridiculous given his career rates and it’s all on the four-seam. It has given up seven homers but it also has 31 of 48 strikeouts for Ray. 

His 28.9% K rate would be top-20 if he qualified and we talked yesterday about how much the Rays are striking out against lefty pitching. Ray is at his best for the K rate against righties at an even 30% and the xFIP is 3.59. I believe he’ll always give up more than that metric would indicate just because of the fastball-heavy approach, but at this rate, you can live with it. With Tampa sitting 21st in ISO and over a 31% K rate to lefty pitching, Ray checks the boxes we look for. 

Adbert Alzolay 

I think we could see Alzolay pick up some popularity at this price because any pitcher beneath his salary is seriously questionable. Alzolay is over 27% in K rate and his xFIP of 3.31 tells us the 4.62 ERA is a little underserved with a 24.2% HR/FB rate. He’s also cut his walk rate from 14.9% to 4.9% so the drop in K rate has been worth it for him. The 13.4% swinging-strike rate and CSW are 13.4% and 30.5%, both of which are career-highs. 

The slider has been incredible with a .137 average, .171 wOBA, and a 38.6% whiff rate. It also has 27 of 35 strikeouts so far and even though St. Louis has hit the pitch well, Alzolay’s would rank fourth if he had the innings to qualify. He has also dominated righties with a .208 wOBA, 31.9% K rate, and a 0.68 WHIP. With the Cardinals being mostly righty in their lineup, this spot rates well for Azolay. 

Honorable Mention – Chriss Bassitt after he came back down to Earth a little bit last start and Shane McClanahan solely for his strikeout upside at 30.6%. 

Stacking Options 

1. Boston against Spencer Howard (Rafael Devers, JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts, Bobby Dalbec)
2. San Diego against Justus Sheffield (Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Austin Nola, Trent Grisham)
3. Chicago against Miles Mikolas (Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Joe Pederson)
4. Oakland against Dylan Bundy (Matt Olson, Mark Canha, Ramon Laureano, Seth Brown)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.22 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.21

Every single team is in action tonight but that does not mean we have an overwhelming amount of options. The good news is we do have some of the more fantasy-friendly pitchers in baseball on the mound, but some of them draw pretty tough spots. There is almost certainly going to be a clear ace option for cash games but let’s talk about who else is on the board for Starting Rotation 5.21! 

Starting Rotation 5.21 – Main Targets 

Trevor Bauer 

The price is high for Bauer but it is deserved. He’s coming off a 38.6 DK score game and among the ace-level pitchers, he draws the easiest matchup. Yes, the Giants are first against his cutter and they just came off flirting with 20 runs but Bauer is different than the Reds pitchers. Bauer also uses the four-seam a lot more than the cuter to lefties at a 253 to 91 ratio. With the Giants typically playing five lefties, that’s not insignificant. The wOBA given up heavily favors the four-seam as well at .188 to .327 and it carries a 24.8% whiff rate. Overall, the 35.5% K rate is seventh in the league and that’s part of the reason he is so expensive. 

The 47.5% fly-ball rate finds a nice home in San Francisco and his fastball is the highest-rated pitch in baseball on the FanGraphs rating scale. Both sides of the plater are under a .250 wOBA so even though lefties hit Bauer a little bit more, it’s not something to worry a lot about. Bauer also has a lower K rate to lefties at 31.4% but San Francisco is rotating around the top-three in K rate to righties. Given the options around him, I expect Bauer to be the cash option but in GPP it gets far more interesting. 

Tyler Glasnow 

The Blue Jays have the best game against Glasnow of the year with five runs but they still whiffed 10 times and Glasnow scored 19.3 DK even with allowing those runs. Sure, 19 DK isn’t what we’re looking for at this salary but Glasnow isn’t super likely to give up five runs in one inning again. The swinging-strike rate of 16.8%, CSW of 34.7%, and 38.6% K rate all reside in the top-four in the majors, so even if he’s giving up 2-3 runs per start, the K rate does all the work to make up for it. 

Making this spot slightly better is the fact Glasnow is slightly less susceptible to power from righty hitters with just a 0.90 HR/9 and both sides of the plate are under a .245 wOBA and a 2.95 xFIP. The four-seam/curve mix account for all but nine of his 85 strikeouts on the season and both the slider and curve have whiff rates over 43%. I’ll be interested to see where the field goes and what they do with Glasnow tonight. If he’s not that popular, that will be fairly exciting. 

Marcus Stroman 

It can be a little difficult to get Stroman right since he’s not normally the pitcher we chase. I’m not happy with the price but pitching, in general, is very pricey tonight. Stroman checks in in part due to matchup since the Marlins strike out 26.7% of the time to righty pitching. They are also third in ground ball rate at 47.2% and that’s something that Stroman knows how to do. He ranks sixth overall in ground ball rate at 54% and the K rate is 18.5%. While that’s not exactly what we want, his swinging-strike rate is still 11.6% and that would be a career-best. The O-contact rate is up from last season’s 61.5% to 64.1% and that makes me believe those two metrics point to a higher K upside. 

Both sides of the plate are under .280 in wOBA and almost everything is static as far as the splits go. The K rate, xFIP, WHIP, and average are very similar no matter which side a hitter resides on. All of his pitches that aren’t the sinker boast a whiff rate of at least 30.6% and none of the top three pitchers are over a .270 wOBA allowed. The value pitching gets pretty scary tonight so Stroman needs to be in play in what rates as a great spot for him. 

Mike Minor

Minor’s surface stats look roundly awful so far, but there are very strong reasons to play him tonight. For one, he has flashed some upside with two starts over 27 DK and one of those starts came against this very Tigers offense. Now, Detroit hasn’t been near as poor lately and we have to note that. Even if you use just the stats from May, they are still having issues against lefty pitchers. Detroit is 29th in ISO, 18th in OPS, 23rd in slugging, and 16th in wOBA with a K rate of almost 29%. That’s a far cry from the dead last position they held but it’s still a spot to go after with a lefty pitcher that has a 24.4% K rate. 

Minor has an ERA over 5.00 but the xFIP is down to 4.54 and that is more palatable. His hard-hit rate is 28.2% to go along with a 10.2% swinging-strike rate and a 27.7% CSW. What I like is the Tigers will likely counter Minor with eight righty hitters. Not only does Minor hold them to a .297 wOBA and an OPS under .680, but that means his curveball will be heavily in play. Minor uses it almost only to righty hitters and it has the most strikeouts of any pitch at 16, the highest whiff rate at 32.1%, and a .188 wOBA. It’s still the fourth pitch but with Detroit ranking so poorly against it, we can see the upside under $8,000. 

Tyler Anderson 

To the surprise of really nobody, Atlanta has also started to pick it up against lefties. The difference is they are wildly more talented than the Tigers so this spot is absolutely scary. Keep in mind that Anderson has talked through the fire before against the Cubs and Padres. So far, Anderson has racked up a 23.5% K rate and a 41.6% ground ball rate, both strong metrics for this salary range. The swinging-strike rate is up to 12.9% and his changeup has been a big reason why. While the four-seam/cutter mix has accounted for 33 strikeouts, the change has been the best pitch for results at a .194 wOBA, .174 average, and a 31.4% whiff rate. 

Atlanta is sporting a K rate of over 25% since the start of May which is plenty to take advantage of. Anderson has kept the ERA, FIP, and xFIP all below 3.95 and he’s been at his best to righty hitters. The likely lineup for Atlanta will feature seven righties plus the pitcher spot and Anderson has a 25.9% K rate and a .278 wOBA to that side of the plate. It will be far from easy, but the path for Anderson to have success is there tonight. 

Anthony Kay

I will admit that this play is not for everyone and is very risky. Kay sure looks like a pitcher that has had just dreadful luck so far and while the Rays are the Win Daily Official Lineup when they face righty pitching, the script flips when it’s a lefty. Using the same filter from the start of May, Tampa leads in K rate at 34.5% and is not higher than 24th in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, or wRC+. They do still have power with the 11th-best ISO but the K rate makes it worth gambling. Kay is sitting at 25.8% through 13.2 IP so far and his advanced metrics paint a much better picture than the 7.24 ERA. 

The strand rate is only 56.6% and the HR/FB rate is over 18%. His xFIP is 4.16 and his FIP is still 4.67, which is fine at $5,900. With a BABIP of .371, you have to assume things even out and this is where the small sample size would be noteworthy. The lefty for the Jays has only given up one barrel so far and has a 10.3% swinging-strike rate. The wOBA to righties is only .308 and all his pitches have a whiff rate over 22% thus far. He’s thrown close to 80 pitches a couple of times, so if everything goes well you can see five innings, a run or two, and possibly 5-6 strikeouts with Tampa on the other end. 

Honorable Mention – Ian Anderson, Carlos Rodon, and Martin Perez are all in play but seem very expensive. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.20

We get the split slates on Thursday like normal but the options are pretty tough through the day. I guess we can’t be surprised since we had so many great options on Wednesday, but it’s still not the most fun day ever for pitching on paper. Let’s get into Starting Rotation 5.20 and discuss exactly who we need to be targeting through the day to get our lineups into the green!

Starting Rotation 5.20 – Early Slate 

Tyler Mahle 

We don’t exactly have a ton of options but Mahle would be a target regardless of the size of the slate. Not only does he have a K rate of 29.5% but the Giants are whiffing at a 28.5% rate to righties, which has taken over the lead in the majors. The Giants will typically play at least five lefties in their lineup as well and that’s going to help Mahle in a big way. He’s held lefties down to a .251 wOBA, a 0.75 HR/9, and a 32.3% K rate. Righties have hit him far more with a .372 wOBA but it’s important to note the BABIP of .314 and the HR/FB rate is 22.7%. The xFIP to each side is both under 3.90. 

When we’re looking at why Mahle has been better to lefties, it sure looks like the four-seam/splitter mix has a lot to do with it. Both pitches have a wOBA under .300 and the splitter is under .215 with a whiff rate of 40%. The four-seam has 32 of the 50 strikeouts Mahle has recorded so far and he may well be the best option on paper to anchor out lineups. 

Rich Hill

This is pretty much where we’re at that Rich Hill might be the second-best option for us. Now, he’s been worlds better than the start of the season but there’s still not a comfort level here. The K rate has gotten up to 26.6% and he’s going to need every bit of it because the O’s don’t whiff a lot to lefties at just 22.7%. They are also somewhat of a mixed bag to lefties, as the wRC+ and slugging are top 10, but most other metrics have Baltimore between 14-20. Hill does have a fly-ball rate barely over 37% and the hard-hit rate is barely over 31% so there’s not something that sticks out as a reason to attack Hill. The curve still stands out as well –

I’m not overly excited for Baltimore playing seven righties, which is their typical lineup. Hill sports a .306 wOBA to that side of the plate and a .703 OPS. Still, the xFIP is 3.82 and the Orioles struggling with the curve could wind up being the key. Hill has thrown 204 four-seam fastballs to righties and 195 curves, so it’s basically a 50/50 split. The curve only has a .232 wOBA and a 23.8% whiff rate while the four-seam has a 25.5% whiff rate. Now, the four-seam can be susceptible to damage with a .344 wOBA and three home runs, but it’s not like the Orioles kill that pitch either. 

Domingo German 

When we get the smaller slates and a bunch of imperfect spots, the best thing we can do is cause the strikeout upside for pitchers. German has a great matchup for that as the Rangers strike out 27% of the time to righty pitching and German is over 24% himself. We can also like the fact German sports a ground ball rate over 45% and Texas is sixth in ground ball rate to righties at 46.9%. What’s interesting about the K rate for German is the swinging-strike rate is 12.9% and the CSW is 30.1%. That would lead me to believe he can run up the strikeouts a little more than he has so far. Part of that is the O-contact rate (amount of contact made on pitches outside the zone) is 63.2%. German’s career rate is 59% so there’s room for improvement. 

The splits aren’t spectacular for German as both sides of the plate are over .300 with lefties sitting at .324. However, that’s also coming with a .306 BABIP to that side, and both sides at least whiff over 22%. The curveball has been the money pitch so far with a 40.4% whiff rate and a .145 wOBA and Texas has not hit that pitch well. I fully expect German o give up some production but also strike out 5-7 hitters. 

Honorable Mention – Dane Dunning, who has some strikeout upside but has been worse to righty hitters. The Yankee lineup is a little beat up and he could be a stealth pitcher here. I could actually see him becoming a little chalky with the salary involved. 

Starting Rotation 5.20 – Main Slate

Vince Velasquez 

I’m still reluctant to totally buy into Vinnie Velo and this has all the makings of playing him to see him get smacked for no apparent reason. His salary does help mitigate those fears, however, and the reality is this is a great spot for him by a ton of metrics. The Marlins do not rate well against any of his pitch mix and every pitch has at least a 29.4% whiff rate. The 4.27 xFIP brings us some comfort and the 2.15 HR/9 is being fueled by a 24.1% HR/FB rate. The Marlins may not have the bats to take advantage of it. They are 26th or worse in slugging, ISO, and OPS on the season so the power lacks for sure. 

The other great part for Velasquez is the Marlins strike out the fourth-most in baseball to righty pitching and only walk 7.3%. Velasquez has a 28.9% K rate so far and while the walk rate is gross at 14.8%, the Marlins aren’t scary in that metric. The weaknesses they have mesh well with Velasquez’s strengths, which means Vinnie Velo has a chance at a big game tonight. The 30.0% HR/FB to righties have skewed his numbers and they may well continue to come down in this start. At least we’ve seen him hit at least 19 DK the past three straight starts. 

Sandy Alcantara 

Alcantara got blistered in his last start, but don’t let one start cloud how solid he’s been all season. Every other start has been at least five innings, yielded no more than four earned runs, and has at least four strikeouts. Many starts are higher than these numbers but that’s been about the floor for Alcantara so far. He gets a good spot for strikeouts as Philly remains sixth K rate to righty pitching at 26% while Alcantara has racked up a 24.2% rate. He’s cut his walk rate down to a career-best 7.6% and that’s always been a small issue for him. Even better is the 48.2% ground ball rate and a hard-hit rate of just 27.7%. One of the biggest jumps for Alcantara has been the swinging-strike rate of 14.4%. 

Alcantara will likely face five righties and the pitcher spot and that means he’ll be leaning on the slider more than the changeup. The change is his fourth pitch to the right side of the plate but the slider has 12 strikeouts, a .286 wOBA, and a 35.3% whiff rate so there’s nothing wrong with that pitch. Alcantara is also better to righties with a .278 wOBA and a 29.2% K rate. You can point out that the road ERA is 6.86 compared to the 2.30 mark at home, but the Dodgers start really skews that badly. It’s not a concern for me and you can use both pitchers from this game if you like. 

Drew Smyly 

On a five game slate we can afford to get weird and I can safely say that Smyly will not be in the main target list very often. This is the exception to the rule as he’s taking on the Buccos, who have been terrible to lefties all season long. Their highest ranking in our offensive categories is 24th, and that’s in OBP. They sit directly in the middle of the pack as far as strikeout rate at 24.1%, which is enough for Smyly to rack up a few. Make no mistake, Smyly has not pitched well this year at all. The 5.23 ERA is about what he’s earned so far with a 5.28 xFIP and a 6.49 FIP. The fly-ball rate is absurd at 48.9% with a hard-hit rate just under 39%. This is mostly targeting an offense that has been poor the entire season.

He is going to face 6-7 righties and that has been the biggest issue for Smyly this year. The K rate is only 15.5% and the wOBA is .357 so you’re banking on Pirate incompetence. As poor as Smyly has been, he has been able to show some upside. He just pitched six strong innings against the Brewers and he’s even got the Nationals twice. On a large slate, maybe we don’t go here but for this size slate, Smyly makes sense to take a shot with.

Honorable Mention – Nick Pivetta, but I don’t feel the need to pay the top dollar on the slate against the Blue Jays.

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!