MLB DFS

Happy Hump Day!  It’s Wednesday and that will mean we’ll have a fairly large slate to work with.  Tonight we have ourselves an 11-game slate of MLB DFS.  At first glance, this slate is loaded with pitching options.  There are several high-end pitchers that are also in fairly decent spots to perform.  We also have some really strong spots for offense.  This is shaping up to be a fun-looking slate. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Zack Wheeler ($9.8k on DK) vs. Chicago Cubs

Zack Wheeler continues to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.  If we look at his recent box scores, we can really see just one blemish and that was against one of the top lineups in the game today.  Over the last 2 months, he’s had just 2 outings where he’s given up more than 2 ER.  Overall, his body of work has been extremely impressive.  The one concern with him is that the K’s just haven’t been there and in DFS, K’s are king.  Tonight is a night where I think he gets his K’s and more. 

The Cubs have been terrible of late.  Over the last week, they’ve scored just 16 runs and have struck out 32% of the time.  I say this time and time again, I chase ceiling-type outings.  For Wheeler tonight, this is a ceiling-type game for him as the Cubs are striking out a ton of late.  Look for Wheeler to have one of his vintage-type outings tonight.  He has 30-point upside in this matchup with how the Cubs are playing right now. 

Davis Daniel ($7.5k on DK) vs. Oakland

Because of his last outing, I expect Davis Daniel to be rather popular tonight.  He struck out 8 Tigers in 8 shutout innings.  Against anyone else, I’d probably fade him as he’s still mostly unproven.  I’m struggling to find a reason to fade him tonight as he gets one of the top matchups out of any pitcher on this slate.  The A’s are back to being terrible.  Over the last week, they’ve scored 12 runs and have struck out 34% of the time. 

The projected lineup tonight for the A’s has 6 guys that have a strikeout rate over 27% vs. righties this season.  While we can’t really bank on another 8k shutout performance out of Daniel, the matchup is strong enough that we very well could see 6-7 K’s and limited damage against him.  I’m going to eat the chalk here because he has immense upside at relatively little cost. 

Other pitchers I like today are going to be Chris Sale vs. the Giants, Dean Kremer vs. the Mariners, and Shota Imanaga vs. the Phillies.     

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Dakota Hudson

Coors was a huge letdown last night as the Rockies and Brewers combined to score just 7 runs.  With Dakota Hudson on the mound tonight, we should expect the Brewers to score 7 on their own.  Dakota Hudson has been bad of late.  Over the last month, Hudson is sporting an ERA of 7.77.  Most of this is thanks to the 13 ER he’s given up over his last 2 starts.  He’s just too low of a K guy to be successful. 

His K rate of just 11.70% over the last month is one of the lowest of anyone throwing tonight.  He’s also sporting a WHIP of nearly 2.  That’s nearly 2 runners on in every inning.  Just really bad stuff.  While the entire lineup for the Brewers will be in play today, I’m going to prioritize getting the lefties here.  Over the last 30 days, lefties have a .292 ISO vs. him and a .469 wOBA.  Thankfully, the Brewers have some really strong lefties we can target.

Core Bats: Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, Sal Frelick

Secondary Bats:  William Contreras, Willy Adamas, Rhys Hoskins

Cincinnati Reds vs. Carlos Rodon

Is Carlos Rodon Patrick Corbin 2.0?  His first season in the Bronx was marred by injuries and he ended up finishing the season with a 6.85 ERA across 14 starts.  While this season started a bit stronger, he has completely fallen apart.  Over his last 3 starts, Rodon has allowed 21 ER.  Things aren’t going to get any easier for him tonight as he’s facing a Reds lineup that scored 5 runs against Luis Gil and company last night. 

Rodon’s only saving grace is that he’s still getting some K’s.  His K rate over the last month is still around 25%.  That said, when he’s not striking out hitters, he’s giving up bombs or barrels.  He’s given up 6 homers over the last month and 11 barrels.  He’s lost right now and until he finds himself, I’m stacking against him. 

Core Bats: Elly De La Cruz, Jeimer Candelario, Jonathan India, Spencer Steer

Value Bats:  Stuart Fairchild, Noelvi Marte

They didn’t make my top 2, but at the end of the day, they may.  I also really like the Rangers lefties vs. Adam Mazur.  He’s been terrible also and I’ll be sure to have some exposure to Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Smith, Jonah Heim, and should he come back tonight Corey Segar.  Other teams I like tonight will be the Padres vs. Jon Gray, the Astros vs. Yusei Kikuchi, and the Yankees vs. Andrew Abbott. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Happy Taco Tuesday!  After just 3 games on the schedule yesterday, we’re back to having a plethora of games to watch and choose players from.  Tonight, we have ourselves a massive 11-game slate of MLB DFS.  This slate has some interesting options for use to choose from in regards to pitching.  It also brings us back to one of my favorite punching bags in Dallas Keuchel. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Grayson Rodriguez ($9.4k on DK) vs. Seattle Mariners

Pitchers against the Mariners this season have been a successful way to cash.  At 877 strikeouts so far this season, the Mariners lead the league and the next closest team is nearly 40 K’s behind them.  This is a team that is striking out an epic pace and they don’t seem to be slowing down any time soon.  Over the last week, the Mariners have struck out 38% of the time.  Just crazy stuff right there. 

Against righties this season, the Mariners have struck out more than 28% of the time.  While Rodriguez isn’t quite known as a huge K guy, he has gotten into the double-digit strike-out territory this season and has often gotten to at least 6 in most starts.  I stress this all the time in chasing ceiling games, and this is a ceiling game for Rodriguez tonight.  He’s in a stretch right now that has seen him get to at least 20 DK in 5 of his last 6 starts.  He should add to that total tonight in a solid matchup. 

Aaron NoJose Siriano ($7.5k on DK) vs. Oakland Athletics

I’m not finding it necessary to chase the top arms tonight.  After somewhat spending up for Rodriguez tonight, I’m going with a cheaper arm in Jose Siriano.  Siriano gets one of the better matchups on the board tonight as he takes on the lowly Oakland Athletics.  The A’s have been really bad of late.  Over the last week, they’ve scored just 17 runs while striking out 30% of the time.  The projected lineup tonight for the A’s has a 26% strikeout rate vs. righties this season. 

This all sets up great for a pitcher in Siriano who has been pitching rather well recently.  Over his last 6 starts, Siriano has been at or above 18 DK points in 4 of them.  What he lacks in K upside, he makes up for in length as he’s gone at least 6 innings in 5 consecutive starts.  His WHIP of just 1 has helped in going longer in games.  Look for him to have another solid night tonight. 

Other pitchers I like today are going to be Dylan Cease vs. the Rangers, Reynaldo Lopez vs. the Giants, and Tarik Skubal vs. the Twins. None of those guys are a must play though as the matchups are tough for the top-end pitchers tonight.  

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Colorado Rockies vs. Dallas Keuchel

If you forgot that Dallas Keuchel was still around, you’re not alone.  Until the Mariners traded him to the Brewers last week, I thought he had all but retired.  I for one am extremely grateful he’s still around because that means we get to stack against him when he’s on the mound.  I normally try to avoid going to Coors because ownership is normally exaggerated, but I’m making an exception tonight as Keuchel is terrible these days. 

Ever since peaking in 2020, baseball has been Keuchel’s enemy.  Over the last few years, Keuchel has consistently had an ERA over 5, and last year it was pushing 6, ultimately getting released by the Twins.  He’s made just one start this season but it was the same ole same ole for him.  5 ER allowed in just 4 innings of work.  After having a bullpen game yesterday, I’d expect Keuchel to have a longer leash today.  That’s music to our ears.

Core Bats: Brendan Rodgers, Brenton Doyle, Ezequiel Tover, Elias Diaz

Secondary Bats:  Ryan McMahon, Nolan Jones

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ryne Nelson

Few pitchers in baseball get hit as hard as Ryne Nelson gets hit.  He’s already allowed 25 barrels this season, with 14 coming over his last 27 innings of work.  He also has allowed a mind-boggling 43% hard-hit rate.  Now, if he had a high swinging strike rate or K rate, he’d be ok.  But the fact that he has a contact rate against him of 86% just means he is putting a massive amount of hard-hit balls into play. 

Now, if he was a ground ball pitcher, he’d be ok.  He’s not.  Over the last month, Nelson has allowed a 44% flyball rate.  So we have a pitcher that is giving up a 86% contact rate, a 43% hard-hit rate, and a 44% flyball rate.  Bombs.  Away. 

Core Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Shohei Ohtani, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman

Secondary Bats: Teoscar Hernandez

Value Bats:  Miguel Rojas,  Jason Heyward, Gavin Lux, Cavan Biggio

Other stacks I like today will be the Yankees vs. Graham Ashcraft, Dbacks vs. Bobby Miller, Phillies vs. Hayden Wesneski, Brewers vs. Ryan Feltner, and Reds vs. Luis Gil.  As you can see, there are a ton of options for bats today.  If you want to be sneaky, go Reds vs. Gil.  It’s risky, but Gil has been terrible of late. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Happy Saturday everyone!  Today we have ourselves an 8-game slate of MLB DFS starting at 4 pm EST.  This is a slate that will be a bit different than last night in that we have a few more options on the mound.  At first glance, this looks to be a pretty fun slate with options for both bats and arms.  This should mean ownership should be more spread out than last night as we had chalk Bailey Ober.  Thankfully, he didn’t let us down. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Paul Skenes ($8.5k on DK) vs. Atlanta Braves

This is a much less intimidating lineup for the Atlanta Braves than it was last season.  Guys like Austin Riley and Matt Olson aren’t having the seasons they had in 2023 and because of that, the Braves aren’t nearly as dominant as they were.  At nearly the All-Star Break, they sit 8 games out of first and even though the Phillies will miss some of their major pieces for the next couple of weeks, I don’t see them catching up anytime soon. 

That said, I’d play Skenes regardless of the matchup.  Through 8 starts in the big leagues, Skenes has proven the most important thing for DFS.  He can strike anyone out.  He’s had just one start under 7 K’s this season and that was against a Giants lineup that is stingy.  He’s in a stretch right now that has seen him strike out at least 7 hitters in 5 straight and against a Braves team that has struck out 28% of the time over the last week, he’ll continue to rack up the K’s.  Enjoy the price being under $9k today, I don’t think it ever happens again. 

Aaron Nola ($8.7k on DK) vs. Miami Marlins

What Nola lacks in the strikeout department, he makes up for with his length.  It’s been a month and a half since we saw Nola get at least 8 K’s in a game, but over that stretch he’s gone into the 7^th inning in all but 1 outing.  We should see another dominating performance out of Nola today as he takes on the lowly Miami Marlins.  This is a terrible lineup and a lineup that has scored only 17 runs over the last week while striking out 30% of the time. 

Any pitcher that throws against them has ceiling upside and the ceiling upside that we can get from Nola today is an outing in the 30 DK point.  Anything can happen in baseball as it’s one of the most highly variant sport, but I like the odds of Nola being one of the top performing pitchers today.  We’re getting 2 pitchers for under $9k today that can get us 50 points if they just pitch like they normally do. 

Other pitchers I like today are going to be Max Fried vs. Pittsburgh, Cole Ragans vs. Cleveland, and Jake Irvin vs. Tampa.  This slate is a breath of fresh air compared to last night’s. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Hogan Harris

I said it yesterday, and I’ll say it again today.  When the Dbacks play against a lefty they are almost a lock for me to stack.  Although they only managed to plate 3 runs against Sears last night, they put the ball in play and they put the ball in play with some hard-hit balls.  They just got unlucky as they had a .250 BABIP.  They are one of the best teams in baseball against lefties and they get an even better matchup today than last night. 

Hogan Harris has a very respectable ERA over the last month of 2.28.  He’s due for some major regression as his SIERA and xFIP are nearly 2.5 runs higher.  He’s giving up a ton of hard contact at nearly 37% and a ton of fly balls at 44%.  That’s led to him giving up 6 homers over his last 27 innings of work.  More damage will be inflicted upon him today.  I’m going to mostly focused on the righties here as they have a 41% fly ball rate vs. him and a 54% hard-hit rate vs. him.  5 of the 6 homers he’s allowed this season have been to righties. 

Core Bats: Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel, Christian Walker,

Secondary Bats:  Corbin Carroll

Value Bats: Randal Grichuk, Blaze Alexander, Eugenio Saurez

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Roddery Munoz

I wish the Phillies were healthier coming into this one as both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber will be out the next couple of weeks.  This is a phenomenal matchup for the Phillies today as Roddery Munoz has been, to quote Charles Barkley, “Turrible.”  He’s given up at least 4 ER in 4 of his last 5 outings and should continue to give up a ton today.  The home run ball has really crushed him.  In his last 20 innings of work, he’s allowed 8 bombs.  Giving up one just about every other inning is not ideal. 

He’s just giving up way too many fly balls and way too many hard hits.  He’ll be pitching in one of the easiest parks to hit a homer in today so we should see some long balls from the Phillies today.  With all the injuries the Phillies have right now, we’ll also get some value in this lineup.  I’ll be laser focused on the lefties here as they have a mind-boggling .429 ISO vs. him this season.  Oh, Harper and Schwarber, you couldn’t wait a couple of days to get hurt?

Core Bats: Brandon Marsh(value also), Bryson Stot, Trea Turner

Secondary Bats: Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm

Value Bats:  Kody Clemens, David Dahl

Other stacks I like today will be Houston vs. Tylor Megill, Mets vs. Framber Valdez, and Nationals vs. Aaron Civale. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

TGIF!  It’s Friday and that means we’ll have a massive slate.  Tonight we have ourselves a 13-game slate of MLB DFS.  After last night’s debauchery, it will be nice to have more options to play with.  Although we’ll have 26 teams in action, pitching is going to be very suspect tonight.  Outside of Charlie Morton, all the high-priced pitchers have terrible matchups and matchups that they very well could fail in.  That said, we do have some middle-tiered guys that have really strong matchups and are coming into the matchups pitching well. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Bailey Ober ($8.8k on DK) vs. Seattle Mariners

I’ve been picking on the Mariners all season with righties and tonight is going to be no different.  No team in baseball has a higher strikeout rate vs. righties than the Mariners.  To make matters worse for the Mariners, they’ve also been mostly powerless vs. righties as they have just a .675 OPS vs. them.  They’ve been impatient vs. righties and the results are in the pudding. 

That said, Bailey Ober is coming into this matchup after 2 dominating performances against the A’s.  Over those 2 starts, Ober amassed 18 K’s.  While I don’t know if we get the same level of performance out of him tonight, this is a matchup against a free-swinging team that he should excel in. 

Drew Thorpe ($7.3k on DK) vs. Colorado Rockies

This is how bad pitching is tonight.  I’m relegated to using Drew Thorpe as my SP2.  Drew Thorpe has now made 3 starts in the bigs, with only one of them being bad.  He’s coming off an extremely solid start that saw him strike out 5 across 6 innings of work.  His only blemish on the scorecard that night was that he also walked 4 Tigers.  That is now 9 across his last 2 starts. 

We should see a decrease in his walks tonight as the Rockies are one of the most impatient teams in baseball.  Their 7.3% BB rate is the 4^th lowest in baseball.  Only the Orioles, White Sox, and Marlins have walked at a lower pace than them.  The Rockies have also been terrible of late, striking out 37% of the time over the last week and scoring just 17 runs.  Can Drew Thorpe have a repeat of his last outing?  I think so. 

There are just a few other pitchers that I like tonight.  We could make a case for Charlie Morton but he’s one of the most expensive pitchers on this slate and I’m not overly comfortable paying that price for a pitcher with just a 22% k rate over the last month and facing a team that hasn’t been striking out much. 

Maybe Marcus Stroman vs. Toronto, or maybe Kent Maeda vs. the Angels, or maybe Triston McKenzie vs. a struggling Royals lineup.  Again, this is a tough slate of pitching where the highest-priced pitchers have matchups against teams like the Mets, Twins, Dodgers, and Orioles.  All teams that are smoking the ball right now and ones that I would not want to face. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. JP Sears

I’ve been mostly using the Diamondbacks vs. lefties this year.  All season long, they have been a top-10 offense vs. lefties.  They have several guys in this lineup that mash lefties.  Something they also have going for them is that JP Sears has not been pitching well recently.  Over the last month, Sears has had more outings giving up 4 or more runs than he has given up less than 4 ER.  His last outing was the worst of the season, an outing that saw him give up 8 ER to the Twins in less than 2 innings of work. 

One of the main things that has been doing him in this year has been his control.  His BB/9 is at an all-time high.  This has, in turn, caused him to have an all-time high WHIP.  Over the last month, his WHIP is an astounding 1.9.  That’s nearly 2 runners in every single inning.  If the Diamondbacks can remain patient at the plate, the world will be their oyster and they’ll make for a short outing for Sears.  I’m going to be mostly focused on the righties here.  Righties have a .225 ISO and a .441 wOBA against him over the last 30 days.   

Core Bats: Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel, Christian Walker,

Secondary Bats:  Corbin Carroll

Value Bats: Randal Grichuk, Blaze Alexander, Eugenio Saurez

Cleveland Guardians vs. Alec Marsh

The Guardians were a huge disappointment last night, scoring just 1 run against Michael Wacha and the Royals bullpen.  They get a much easier matchup tonight against Alec Marsh and I just don’t see them disappointing tonight.  Marsh has not been pitching very well over the last month.  If we date back to May 27, he has just one outing under 3 runs allowed and 4 outings giving up at least 4 ER. 

He’s someone that has been giving up a ton of hard contact.  Across his last 25 innings of work, he’s allowed 10 barrels.  His hard-hit rate is a whopping 40% over that period as well.  With a contact rate approaching 80%, that’s a lot of hard-hit balls being put into play.  The Guardians have one of the highest implied run totals on the board at 5.3 tonight.  They should get all of it and then some. 

Core Bats: JRam, Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor

Secondary Bats: David Fry

Value Bats:  Bo Naylor, Daniel Schneemann, Gabriel Arias

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Red Sox vs. Randy Vasquez (close 2^nd behind the Guardians), A’s vs. Slade Cecconi, Tigers vs. Zach Plesac, and Royals vs. Triston McKenzie.  The stacks I like even though they are in tougher matchups are the Mets vs.  Ronel Blanco and Orioles vs. Mad Max.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Guess what day it is?  Hump Day!  It’s Wednesday and that means we’ll have a split slate.  I’ll be focused on the 6-game slate of MLB DFS starting at 7 pm EST.  We’ll have another Subway series game in this one and after the Mets rocked the Yankees ace, can they do it to Luis Gil also?  At first glance, this slate is really lacking a true ace and pitching is very scarce.  We really have a bunch of mid-range arms that lack serious upside. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Gavin Stone ($8.8k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

This is how tough pitching is tonight.  I’m recommending Gavin Stone as my SP1.  Nothing against him, he’s just not typically one that we’d consider as a top pitcher.  That said, he’s been mostly strong over the last month or so.  Over his last 5 outings, he’s given up more than 2 ER just once and has struck out at least 6 in 4 of the 5.  At his price tonight, if we can get another outing of giving up just 2 ER and striking out 6 I will 100% take it with how pitching has been of late. 

That type of outing shouldn’t be difficult as he takes on the worst team in the league the White Sox.  The White Sox have been dreadful vs. righties this season, striking out 24% of the time and hitting with little power. 

Kutter Crawford ($8.2k on DK) vs. Toronto Blue Jays

I’m going to reiterate, pitching is tough tonight.  Kutter Crawford is coming off a really strong stretch of pitching.  Over his last 3 starts, he’s faced off against the Phillies, Yankees, and Reds.  3 strong offenses that he’s been able to mostly tame.  While he did give up some runs in each of the games, he also struck out a healthy amount of hitters as he struck out a combined 24 hitters. 

With a matchup against the Blue Jays, he should be able to continue his strong string of pitching.  The Blue Jays are nothing more than the average lineup.  Yes, Vlad has been hitting some bombs but this is a team that is 7 games under .500 and has a -46 run differential.  They are not good and Crawford should be able to do well here. 

Other pitchers that I like today will be Luis Gil vs. the Mets and whoever is starting against the Cardinals.  I’ve seen Chris Sale’s name floated around and if he does throw against them, I like him tonight. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Boston Red Sox vs. Yariel Rodriguez

Yariel Rodriguez is coming off a start that saw him fail to get out of the second inning.  Against the Guardians last week, Rodriguez gave up 5 ER in just 1 and a third innings of work.  That is now 3 straight starts of struggles if we look back to April.  Now I don’t expect that type of short outing again today, but I do expect his struggles to continue tonight against a lineup that has been performing well. 

Of the teams playing tonight, no one has scored more runs over the last week than the Red Sox.  They’re also not striking out much as they’ve only struck out 21% of the time over the last week.  The Red Sox have the highest implied total on the board tonight and I expect them to be the highest scoring team on the slate. 

Core Bats: Jarren Duran, Tyler O’Neill, Rafael Devers

Secondary Bats:  David Hamilton, Wilyer Abreu

Value Bats: Dominic Smith, Masataka Yoshida

Minnesota Twins vs. Ryne Nelson

Any time I can use Royce Lewis in this type of matchup I jump at the chance to do it.  Ryne Nelson is a terrible pitcher and should be treated as such.  Over the last month, he’s been giving up a ton of contact at 86%.  That’s one of the highest rates of anyone throwing tonight.  With his nearly 35% hard-hit rate and his propensity to give up contact overall, he’s putting way too many hard-hit balls into play. 

His 12 barrels allowed over the last month is also the top number of all the pitchers tonight.  So many red flags against him.  Over the last 30 days, righties have been his weakness. They have a massive .235 ISO and a .363 wOBA against him.  You know who I’m targeting here. 

Core Bats: Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton

Secondary Bats: Trevor Larnach, Carlos Santana, Max Kepler

Value Bats:  Austin Martin, Christian Vazquez

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Mets vs. Luis Gil, Yankees vs. Sean Manea, and Dodgers vs. Erick Fedde 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Happy Taco Tuesday!  With it being that Tuesday, that will mean we have a massive slate on our hands.  Tonight, we’re blessed with a 12-game slate of MLB DFS.  With so many teams in action, this slate brings us a nice combination of solid pitching and also some really good spots for bats.  It also brings us the Subway Series with both the Yanks and Mets playing really well right now. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Hunter Brown ($8k on DK) vs. Colorado Rockies

At some point this season, DK will price Brown accordingly.  Over his last 5 starts, he’s had DK points of 26, 17, 27, 34, and 23.  He should be priced over $9k, not at $8k.  He is pound-for-pound one of the top pitchers on this slate and should be priced with them.  Of all the pitchers on the hill tonight, he has the highest K rate over the last month and one of the lowest ERA’s.  He also has one of the top matchups on the board tonight against the Rockies. 

The Rockies have been dreadful vs. righties this season as they have a nearly 26% K rate and just a .697 OPS. That includes Coors numbers so to say they’ve been bad would be an understatement.  This has ceiling game written all over it tonight.  He’s going to be chalky but will be chalk worth eating. 

Hunter Greene ($8.6k on DK) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Hunter Greene has been putting it all together of late.  At 24, he’s still young and just breaking into the league.  While his strikeouts have been down this season compared to his first 2 seasons, he’s having what I would consider a breakthrough season.  His ERA is the lowest that it’s ever been and so has his FIP.  He’s done a great job keeping the ball in the park this year, with a HR/9 finally under 1. 

That’s been one of the keys to his success this season, cutting down on the long ball.  He should continue to pitch well today with him taking on a Pirates team that has mostly struggled vs. righties.  Against righties this season the Pirates have struck out 25% of the time while having a .638 OPS and a .122 ISO.  Green should be able to continue his stretch of very strong outings, at a very reasonable price. We just need to keep an eye on the weather here.

Other pitchers that I like today will be Reynaldo Lopez vs. St. Louis and MacKenzie Gore vs. San Diego (narrative outing).  Seth Lugo is also in play vs. Miami, but there are better options out there that are way cheaper.  I don’t think we’ll need to go there tonight. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Houston Astros vs. Austin Gomber

Austin Gomber is in the middle of his worst stretch of the season.  Over the last month, Gomber has pitched to an ERA of 9.68 and an xFIP of 5.54.  While he hasn’t pitched nearly as bad as his ERA would indicate, he’s still been really bad.  He’s giving up a boatload of contact at nearly 86% and with nearly 38% of that contact being hard-hit, he’s putting a ton of smoked balls into play.  Through the 17 innings he’s thrown over the last 30 days, he’s given up 9 barrels.  That’s an astronomical pace. 

This also isn’t just a Coors’ effect.  He’s been worse on the road this year and all the offensive metrics are worse away from Coors.  To make matters worse for him today, he’s facing an Astros team that is finally hitting the ball well.  Of the teams playing tonight, only the Padres have scored more runs over the last week.

Core Bats: Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena

Secondary Bats: Yordan Alvarez,  

Value Bats: Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick

Washington Nationals vs. Adam Mazur

The Nationals have been a sneaky offense at times this season.  While I wouldn’t put them anywhere near close to the top offenses in the league, they are extremely competent and in the right matchup can excel. This is the right matchup for them to excel in.  Adam Mazur really struggles vs. lefties and the bread and butter of the Nationals lineup is left-handed. 

Against lefties this season, Mazur has given up a .188 ISO and a .464 wOBA.  That’s compared to just a .270 wOBA vs. righties.  His K rate also dips to just 7% against them.  This is a solid spot for guys like CJ Abrams and Jesse Winker. 

Core/Value Bats: CJ Abrams, Jesse Winker, Eddie Rosario

Secondary Bats: Lane Thomas, Luis Garcia

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Texas lefties, Diamondback lefties, Cubs, and Yankees from the right side. 

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Happy Saturday!  We made it to the weekend.  We have ourselves an 8-game slate of MLB DFS today starting at 4 pm EST.  This is a slate that looks to be a little bit clearer in terms of pitching than what we’ve had of late.  We also have some really solid spots for hitting, especially with the weather being really hot in some spots.  The ball should be flying today!

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Logan Gilbert ($9.2k on DK) vs. Miami Marlins

Even though the Marlins pulled out the walk-off win last night, we did get a very solid performance from George Kirby as he went 7-strong and struck out 5 along the way.  I expect a little bit more out of Logan Gilbert tonight as he has been pretty good of late.  Over the last month, Gilbert has a 25% K rate and just a 2.41 ERA.  He’s coming off a monster performance that saw him strike out 9 Rangers across 8 innings of work. 

This is a pretty weak-hitting Marlins team against righties, with their .657 OPS and .128 ISO.  The one thing they have going for them is that they don’t strike out a ton vs. righties.  That said, Gilbert should provide enough length today to more than make up for his salary.  Gilbert is strong enough and in a good enough matchup tonight to be my SP1.    

Corbin Burnes ($9.1k on DK) vs. Houston Astros

Corbin Burnes has been the model of consistency over the last month.  He’s had just one start since May 19 where he’s been under 20 DK points.  Even though the matchup isn’t great for him today, he’s proven time and time again that he’s one of the best pitchers in the league and is nearly matchup-proof. 

Last Sunday against the Phillies he went 6 innings and struck out 7, while only giving up 2 ER.  The Phillies are a much tougher lineup than the Astros and if he could pull out a performance like that against them, he can surely do it against the Astros as well.  In his final year before free agency, Burnes is pitching like the ace he is.  He’ll continue to perform and perform well this afternoon against the Stros. 

Other pitchers that I really like today will be Bailey Ober vs. Oakland, Zack Wheeler vs. Arizona, and Zach Eflin vs. Pittsburgh if you need a really cheap pitcher. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tommy Henry

I’m expecting the Phillies to explode for a whole bunch of runs today.  While their offense hasn’t been that hot of late, they get a great matchup vs. a pitcher in Tommy Henry who hasn’t been very good recently.  Over the last month, Henry has pitched to an ERA of 9.95.  Yes, that’s a bit exaggerated but he also has an xFIP of 6.98 and a SIERA of 6.1.  He’s coming off a start that saw him give up 5 ER in just 4 innings of work against one of the worst offenses in the league in the White Sox.  He’s going to get hammered by a team that has mostly crushed lefties this season. 

The Phillies have hit for a ton of power vs. lefties this season, with a .764 OPS and a wOBA of .336.  With Henry, we want to prioritize righties as they have a .280 ISO and .414 wOBA vs. him this season. 

Core Bats: Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper

Secondary Bats: Nick Castellanos,

Value Bats: Edmundo Sosa, Whitt Merrifield, Rafael Marchan

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jared Jones

The Tampa Bay Rays have seemed to found their groove recently.  Over the last week, of the teams playing tonight, only Baltimore and Boston have scored more runs than them.  They even put up a 10 spot last night.  The Rays get a strong matchup tonight vs. a pitcher in Jared Jones who has really regressed after starting out the season rather strongly.  Over the last month, Jones has pitched to a nearly 6 ERA.  He’s been getting hit pretty hard as he’s giving up 9 barrels over his last 20 innings of work. 

Jones has given up at least 6 ER in 2 of his last 3 outings and I would not be shocked to see him do it again today.  What also helps us here is that Jones has a rather short leash.  Over his last 4 starts, he has gone more than 5 innings just once.  The Pirates bullpen has been pretty lousy of late, with an ERA over 5.50 the last 2 weeks. 

Core/Value Bats: Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, Josh Lowe,

Secondary Bats: Isaac Paredes, Ben Rortvedt

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Mariners vs. Shaun Anderson, Red Sox vs. Frankie Montas, and Royals vs. Jon Gray

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TGIF!  It’s Friday and that means we’ll have a large slate tonight.  Tonight, we’ll have a 10-game slate of MLB DFS.  It’s a tricky slate as pitching does not look great.  The 2 best pitchers on this slate are going to be Dylan Cease and Chris Sale.  At first glance, I have little to no interest in either one of them as Cease has regressed to his troubles from 2023 and Chris Sale has to take on the behemoth also known as the New York Yankees.  We also have a slew of terrible pitchers on this slate which means we’ll certainly have some options for bats. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

George Kirby ($9.4k on DK) vs. Miami Marlins

My major concern here with going with George Kirby tonight is that he just isn’t a high-strikeout pitcher.  He’s only had double-digit strikeouts once this season and has been over 7 just 3 times.  That said, he’s in a great spot tonight vs. a Miami Marlins that has struggled for the majority of the year to resemble a major league lineup, and their numbers vs. righties this season are terrible. 

They have put up just a .657 OPS and a wOBA of .289.  What Kirby lacks in strikeouts, he should make up for in length as I can certainly see him going to 7 strong innings tonight with little to no damage against him.  He’s coming off a game that saw him strike out 6 Rangers and giving up just 1 run.  If he can replicate that tonight, I’ll be extremely pleased and it’s attainable. 

Colin Rea ($7k on DK) vs. San Diego Padres

I’m not a huge fan of using a pitcher like Colin Rea, but on a slate like this with limited options, I feel like we need to.  For his part, Colin Rea hasn’t pitched that poorly recently.  Over the last month, Rea owns a very solid ERA of 1.93 and has done a decent job of limiting hard contact as hitters have a hard-hit rate of less than 30% vs. him.  The major red flag on him though is that he just doesn’t strike out many hitters. 

Over his last 7 starts, he’s had 5 K’s or more in 4 of them topping out at 6 in his last matchup vs. Cincy.  Knowing all that though, he has been serviceable as he’s been over 20 DK points in 2 straight starts and has been under 10 in just 2 of his last 7 starts.  The Padres continue to be a disappointment as they are still under .500 for the year.  I can see Rea continuing to pitch well here tonight. 

I didn’t mention them in my top 2 pitchers but I want to touch on both Sale and Cease.  Sale has one of the toughest matchups on the board against the Yankees.  He’ll certainly get his strikeouts, but I also think he allows too many runs tonight to pay off his salary.  With Cease, we have a pitcher that has all the K upside in the world.  However, he’s pitching terribly right now.  Over his last 7 starts, he’s allowed at least 3 ER in all but one.  With a matchup against a very solid Brewers lineup, especially against righties, I just can’t justify using a $10k pitcher who has been over 20 DK twice in his last 7 starts.  Another one of the best pitchers on the board tonight, Grayson Rodiguez, gets a tough matchup vs. the Astros.  They are one of the lowest strike-out teams in all of baseball.  Again, we’d have a pitcher with limited upside that we’d be paying a premium for. 

Other pitchers I do like are Chris Paddack vs. Oakland (he just got slaughtered by them though), Landon Knack (low ceiling, high floor) vs. Los Angeles, and Carlos Rodon vs. Atlanta.  It’s tough sledding out here tonight. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Carlos Carrasco

Since April 24, Carlos Carrasco has had more starts allowing at least 5 ER than he does allowing less than 5 ER.  At 37, we have to wonder how much more Carrasco has left in the tank.  He’s had just one season over the last 3 with an ERA under 4 and this year he continues to struggle even though he’s back on the team that he broke into the big leagues with.  This is going to be the second straight start that Carrasco makes vs. the Blue Jays. 

He started against them a week ago and allowed 5 ER in his 5 innings of work.  While the Blue Jays will still be without Bo Bichette, they are still a very solid lineup and one that should be able to dominate Carrasco once again tonight.  I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits as Carrasco has been susceptible to both righties and lefties this season.

Core Bats (In preferential order): Vlad Guerrero, Davis Schneider, Daulton Varsho

Secondary Bats: Danny Jansen

Value Bats: Addison Barger, Spencer Horwitz, IKF, Justin Turner, George Springer

Cincinnati Reds vs. Kutter Crawford

It is going to be hot today in Cincinnati!  The majority of this game tonight should be played with temperatures well into the 90’s.  At first pitch, it’s going to be closer to 100 than it is to 90.  And when it gets that warm in Cincy, the ball flies and with a flyball pitcher in Kutter Crawford going tonight that just means we have the potential for a home run derby type of game. 

Over the last month, Crawford has a fly ball rate of nearly 46%, and that has led to him giving up 7 homers over his last 28 innings of work.  I fully expect the long ball to do him in this evening.  I’m going to prioritize the lefties here as they have a .281 ISO vs. him over the last month. 

Core Bats: Elly De La Cruz, Jeimer Candelario, Jake Fraley

Secondary Bats: Spencer Steer, Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson

Value Bats: Jacob Hurtubise, Will Benson, Nick Martini

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Twins vs. Joey Eses, Nationals vs. Dakota Hudson, Rockies vs. DJ Herz, and Red Sox vs. Andrew Abbott

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Hump Day!  While there are 2 big slates today, I’ll be focused on the 8-game main slate of MLB DFS starting at 7:05 pm tonight.  This is a slate that brings us some solid pitching.  We have a couple of the best young lefty hurlers in the game and we also have some solid pitching in great spots.  On the opposite end of the spectrum, we also have some real gas cans throwing today and that will give us different spots for stacking. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Hunter Brown ($7k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

I’m not sure what Hunter Brown needs to do to get his price raised, but until it goes up I’m going to continue to throw him out here.  Especially when he gets a matchup vs. one of the worst lineups in the game.  Brown is coming off one of the best starts of his season, a 7-inning game that saw him strike out 9 Tigers and not allow a run to score.  That is now 4 consecutive starts where he’s had at least 7 K’s.  As I already said, he gets the luxury of facing a terrible lineup tonight. 

The White Sox have been abysmal this season and that shouldn’t change tonight.  They have a nearly 24% K rate vs. righties this season and limited power with a .128 ISO and .622 OPS.  Look for Brown to dominate this lineup tonight and continue his trend of high strikeout games and make it another start with over 20 DK points. 

Joe Ryan ($9.5k on DK) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay continues to be a team that strikes out at a high pace.  Over the last week, the Tampa Bay Rays have struck out 28% of the time and have only scored 25 runs.  They are a team that I have been habitually using righties against and with a pitcher like Joe Ryan on the mound, I’m not going to stop tonight.  Ryan has been strung together a pretty nice set of starts.  Over his last 5 starts, he’s managed to go 7 strong innings and has only allowed more than 2 ER just once. 

While he’s not in the upper echelon of strikeout pitchers, his length and matchup have me thinking that we will see a ceiling type of game tonight vs. the Rays.  He’s been over 23 DK points in 5 of his last 7 starts and I think he does it again tonight. 

Other pitchers that I really like today will be Garrett Crochett vs. Houston, Cole Ragans vs. Oakland, and Sean Manea vs. Texas.  I love Crochett but I do think he has a lower ceiling than normal tonight as Houston doesn’t strike out much. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ryan Feltner

I normally don’t like recommending the Dodgers as they are normally an expensive team and popular.  With them playing in Coors, they’re even more expensive and even more popular.  That said, they are chalk that we may need to just eat tonight as they continue to be in a great spot for a smash-type night.  Ryan Feltner just isn’t very good. 

Over the last month Feltner has a 5.74 ERA and giving up just a ton of hard contact at more than 42%.  He’s also someone that is giving up a ton of homers as he’s given up 6 over his last 26 innings of work.  With Feltner, we really want to focus on getting lefties into our stack.  Lefties have a .404 ISO and a .478 wOBA vs. him over the last 30 days.  Just crazy stuff. 

Core Bats (In preferential order): Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman

Secondary Bats: Will Smith, Teoscar Hernandez, Andy Pages

Value Bats (pinch hit risk): Jason Heyward, Gavin Lux, Cavan Biggio

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tyler Anderson

Although his ERA is just 2.32 over the last month, Tyler Anderson’s SIERA and xFIP indicate he’s not pitching nearly as well as that.  His SIERA and xFIP are both 3 runs higher over the last month than his ERA.  He has some major regression coming his way and I think it comes at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers.  If we look at some of his advanced metrics, we can see why there will be some regression. 

Over the last month, Anderson has a WHIP of 1.42 which is higher than the average pitcher on this slate.  He also has a LOB % of 91%.  He’s been getting extremely lucky to keep leaving that many runners on base.  Against a solid Brewers lineup, his luck is about to run out. 

Core Bats: Christian Yelich, William Contreras, Willy Adames

Secondary Bats: Rhys Hoskins

Value Bats: Joey Ortiz, Gary Sanchez, Jackson Chourio

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Mets vs. Andrew Heaney, Twins vs. Taj Bradley, and Royals vs. Luis Medina. 

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Happy Tuesday!  Tonight we have ourselves a nice-sized 10-game slate of MLB DFS.  At first glance, this is a slate that lacks a true ace.  There isn’t a single pitcher on this slate that will blow us away with strikeouts.  We have just three pitchers tonight over $9k and none of them are must-starts.  Because of this, we’ll be able to afford most of the bats we want. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Alec Marsh ($7.6k on DK) vs. Oakland Athletics

Nothing against Alec Marsh, but this is how bad pitching is tonight that a pitcher who is only $7.6k will be my SP1.  This really shouldn’t take anything away from Marsh though as he’s pitched pretty well over the last month to a month and a half.  If we go back to May 1, he’s had just one start under 15 DK points.  Also over that stretch, he’s had just 2 games under 7 K’s. 

Tonight he’ll have one of the easiest matchups of his season as he takes on the lowly Oakland A’s.  The A’s lineup has been terrible recently as they have scored just 23 runs over the last week while striking out 29% of the time.  I would not be surprised to see Marsh as the highest-scoring pitcher on this slate. 

Framber Valdez ($9.3k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

Nothing about starting Framber Valdez makes me feel comfortable.  He’s the epitome of inconsistent.  We’ve seen him have starts that end with him having upwards of 37 DK points.  We’ve also seen him have multiple starts with negative DK points.  He is the ultimate GPP pitcher.  This is a matchup though that he should be able to fully take advantage of.  The White Sox are just bad, no other way to say it.

They’ve been especially bad against lefties this season as they have just a .289 wOBA and just a .654 OPS.  The White Sox have scored just 22 runs over the week as their offense continues to be anemic.  While I don’t expect Valdez to strike out a ton of hitters tonight, I do expect him to pitch well enough to get us close to 25 DK points. The way the White Sox shape their lineup will play well to Valdez’s strength. He’s way better vs. righties and the White Sox will have potentially 9 righties in their lineup tonight.

Other pitchers that I like today will be Pablo Lopez vs. Tampa, Tanner Houck vs. Toronto, and Logan Webb vs. Chicago.  Should the Twins/Rays game play without any weather concerns, Lopez would jump into my top 2 pitchers, over Valdez.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Austin Gomber

I know it’s kinda cheating that I’m writing up the Dodgers as one of my top stacks.  It’s just too good of a matchup tonight to ignore though.  Of the 20 pitchers throwing on this main slate tonight, Austin Gomber has the second-highest ERA over the last month out of all of them as he has a 7.58 ERA.  He’s also coming off his worst of the season, a start that saw him give up 8 ER to the Twins in just 3 innings of work. 

Can Gomber surprise us tonight and throw a gem?  Sure, anything can happen.  The odds of it happening though are pretty slim.  While both sides of the plate have been really good against him, it’s been the lefties that have given Gomber the most trouble of late.  Lefties have a massive .462 ISO and a .540 wOBA vs. him over the last month.  There is no need to shy away from a guy like Ohtani tonight. 

Core Bats (In preferential order): Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez, Will Smith

Secondary Bats: Andy Pages, Miguel Rojas

Value Bats: Kike Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Miguel Vargas

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Griffin Canning

Everything is setting up for the Brewers to have an offensive explosion tonight.  Not only do they face off against a terrible pitcher in Griffin Canning, but they also face off against one of the worst bullpens in the league.  First, let’s talk about Griffin Canning.  He’s been a home run machine of late.  Over the last month, he’s given up 6 bombs in his 29 innings of work.  Hitters are seeing him well right now as they have a massive 91% contact rate on pitches he throws in the zone.  That’s one of the worst numbers of anyone throwing tonight. 

Lefties have really been doing the most damage as they have a .312 ISO against him over the last month.  Next, let’s talk about the bullpen for the Angels.  Over the last 2 weeks, they own an impressive 8.78 ERA and an xFIP over 5.4.  That’s just terrible and with Canning seldom making it past the 6^th, we’ll have several innings of the bullpen to play with. 

Core Bats: Christian Yelich, Brice Turang

Secondary Bats: William Contreras, Willy Adames, Rhys Hoskins

Value Bats: Sal Frelick, Jackson Chourio, Blake Perkins

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Mets vs. Michael Lorenzen, Braves vs. Casey Mize, Tigers lefties vs. Spencer Schwellenbach, and Twins righties vs. Aaron Civale.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!