MLB DFS

Happy Saturday Y’all!  We finally made it to the weekend and I don’t know about you, but I needed it!  Tonight we have a nice-sized 9-game slate of MLB DFS.  This is a slate that’s going to be extremely tricky in terms of pitchers.  The best pitcher in Paul Skenes faces the Los Angeles Dodgers.  It’s about as tough of a matchup as there is.  After him, it’s really just a bunch of blah pitchers.  That will mean we’ll have plenty of options for bats though.

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Corbin Burnes ($9.3k on DK) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Corbin Burnes is one of those pitchers these days who is just better in real life than he is as a DFS pitcher.  Since 2020, it’s been a downward trend for his strikeouts year after year.  This year his K/9 is at the lowest point of his career at 8.27.  That said, he’s still having one of the better years of his career as his ERA is sitting at a strong 2.63 and after he wins tonight he’ll set a career-high in wins at 13. 

I’m willing to overlook his lack of strikeouts for a few reasons.  There are just a few pitchers on this slate that have a ton of K upside tonight.  He has a relatively safe floor.  And finally, he gets a great matchup vs. a Tampa Bay Rays team that just doesn’t have a good offense these days.  Over the last week, they’ve scored just 19 runs while striking out 29% of the time.  His floor should be higher than normal and his ceiling should also be in this matchup.  He’s my SP1 tonight.  

Sean Manaea ($8.2k on DK) vs. Seattle Mariners

While the additions of Justin Turner and Aroz will certainly make this lineup better, it’s still a high-strikeout team that gives any pitcher upside.  This is especially true when a lefty is on the hill.  Over the last 30 days, the projected lineup for the Mariners has a nearly 26% K rate vs. southpaws.  Nearly half the lineup has a K rate greater than 30% vs. lefties over the last month as well.  There are a ton of strikeouts to be Manaea tonight and thankfully he’s coming into this one in peak form. 

He’s been brilliant over his last 2 starts and that should continue this evening.  He’s coming off back-to-back starts with double-digits K’s and giving up 0 runs.  If he comes even remotely close to that level of production tonight, we’ll be sitting pretty with a very cheap pitcher.  He’s going to be my SP2 this evening. 

I’m out on Paul Skenes tonight.  Yes, he’s been mostly matchup-proof this season but he’s the most expensive pitcher on this slate with arguably the worst matchup.  This matchup severely lowers his ceiling.  The last time he faced the Dodgers he ended up with “just” 21 DK points.  I’d rather get that from Corbin Burnes who’s $1k cheaper. 

Other pitchers I may have interest in tonight will be Aaron Nola vs. Zona, Logan Gilbert vs. the Mets, and maybe River Ryan if you want to get fancy.  This is a slate that’s really barren with pitchers in good spots.  I more than likely won’t be straying from Burnes/Manaea. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Chicago Cubs vs. Chris Flexen

I hope y’all were able to play the Cubs at single-digit ownership last night.  It went better than I could have expected as they tagged Garrett Crochet nicely.  Their ownership should be much higher tonight as the matchup is a smidge more obvious with them taking on Chris Flexen. Flexen is terrible.  Not sure there’s any other way to say it.  Over the last month, Flexen has an ERA that’s pushing 8 and an xFIP that’s over 6. 

He continues to be helpful in terms of stacking.  In his last 7 starts, teams have put up over 6 runs in each of them against him and the White Sox bullpen.  I’m going to prioritize the lefties in this matchup as they have a .556 slugging % vs. him this season.  Righties will still be in play though for me.

I’m starting this stack off with Cody Bellinger.  He doesn’t always come through for us, but he did last night.  He finished the night going 3 for 4 and his first homer in a couple of weeks.  I would not be surprised to see a repeat performance again tonight with a matchup vs. a low strike out pitcher. 

After Bellinger, I’m going to Pete Crow–Armstrong and Michael Busch.  They are 2 of the hotter hitters on this team right now.  PCA is in the midst of a 7-game hitting streak and should have that continue tonight.  He’s also a strong value at just $2.7k on DK.  This entire lineup is in play and plugging in pieces all over will be a good strategy with the wind expected to be blowing out tonight. 

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Nick Martinez

This is more of a play on how well the Brewers are playing right now than it is on Nick Martinez.  Martinez has actually been pitching pretty well of late, with just a .56 ERA over the last month.  His xFIP is nearly 3 runs higher so we can expect some regression from him.  He’s mostly been a reliever this year as he’s only started 6 games but has appeared in 32.  With him mostly working out of the pen this season, we can’t expect him to go more than 4-5 innings and that will mean we’ll get a healthy amount of the bullpen tonight. 

This is a below-average bullpen that has a nearly 5 ERA over the last couple of weeks.  This should certainly help in our cause of using the Brewer tonight.  And this is a Brewers team that is rolling right now.  Over the last week, they’ve scored 49 runs.  That is by far the most out of all the teams in action tonight. 

The first bat I want here will be Jackson Chourio.  He’s been hot at the plate, with 12 hits in his last 28 AB.  While the majority of his hits have been singles, he’s also homered twice and has scored 7 runs.  He should be able to fill up the stat sheet for us this evening. 

I’m also a huge Willy Adames fan tonight.  He’s normally one that is better vs. righties than lefties.  He has an OPS of .850 this season vs. righties, compared to just .612 vs. lefties.  19 of his 21 homers this season have been against righties.  Other bats I’ll look to get in here will be William Contreras, Rhys Hoskins, Garrett Mitchel, and Brice Turang. 

Other stacks I like tonight will be Atlanta vs. Dakota Hudson, Twins vs. Gavin Williams, White Sox vs. Justin Steele, and Guardians vs. SWR. 

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TGIF!  It’s Friday and that will mean a yuge slate.  Tonight we have a 12-game slate of MLB DFS.  We’ll want to monitor the weather on a few games.  The game between the Yanks and Rangers has already been PPD and then the game between Rockies and Atlanta has some weather so we’ll want to make sure to keep an eye on the status.  This slate features some solid, but uninspiring pitchers.  It also features a few pitchers who have had a case of the struggles of late that I will be more than happy to attack.   

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jack Flaherty ($10.5k on DK) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

My biggest concern with paying a premium for a guy like Jack Flaherty is that we pretty much have a set ceiling.  He has only made it into the 7th inning a handful of times this season and each time he was pulled mid-inning for a reliever.  More often than not, he’s gone 6 strong innings and nothing longer.  With it being the home stretch of the season, I don’t see the Dodgers really pushing him when they don’t quite need to. 

With all that said, he’s been the model of consistency all season.  He continues to go 6 strong innings with 6-8 K’s with limited damage.  There’s little about this Pirates lineup that should scare Flaherty tonight.  They’ve struck out 32% of the time over the last week and have scored just 25 runs.  I’m more than willing to pay the premium on Flaherty this evening. 
 

Robbie Ray ($8.6k on DK) vs. Detroit Tigers

I need to preface this pick by saying I only play GPP’s.  If you’re playing cash games, I wouldn’t go this route.  While Ray is one of the more inconsistent pitchers, he’s also someone that will always have a high ceiling due to his ability to rack up strikeouts.  After missing just about all of 2023, Ray has now pitched in 3 games thus far. 

He hasn’t made it past 5 in any of them, but in 2 out of the 3 outings, he’s already had at least 8 K’s.  With his cost tonight, I’m going to overlook his lack of length because again, he can rack up K’s with the best of them.  I’m going to lock in Robbie ‘I like to wear really tight pants’ Ray tonight as my SP2. 

Other pitchers that I like tonight will be Jameson Taillon vs. the White Sox and Jose Berrios vs. Oakland. Wheeler is also in play, but against a red-hot Dbacks team, I’m out.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Kansas City Royals vs. Miles Mikolas

Miles Mikolas has been one of my favorite pitchers to attack.  Nothing against him, but I just enjoy stacking against pitchers who not only give up a ton of contact but also pitchers who give up a lot of homers.  Over his last 21 innings of work, Mikolas has given up a nearly 84% contact rate and just a 22% chase rate.  He isn’t fooling anyone with the garbage that he’s throwing. 

To make matters even better for us, he’s given up 5 bombs in those 21 innings.  I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits in this matchup.  Both sides of the plate have pretty equal numbers vs. him.  Lefties have an OPS of .790 vs. him while righties have an OPS of .787. 

The 3 core plays here will be Bobby Witt, Sal Perez, and Vinnie Pasquantino.  Few hitters in the game today have the upside that Bobby Witt has, especially when they’re playing on their home diamond.  Witt has insane splits this season when comparing his home-to-road performance.  At home, he’s hitting .409, while on the road it sits at “just” .288.  The same could be said for most of this lineup, bringing into question whether or not some nefarious stuff is happening. 

That’s a convo for another day though.  While Witt is the star and face of this franchise, we can’t discredit what Pasquantino is doing.  With finally getting regular playing time, he’s already set a career-high in homers and is well on his way to having his first 100 RBI season.  Other guys I like here are Michael Massey, MJ Melendez, and Hunter Renfroe. 

Chicago Cubs vs. Garrett Crochet and the White Sox Bullpen

We’re essentially at the point of the season where Crochet is mostly worthless.  At 118 innings pitched, he’s more than doubled his career total.  Coming into this season, Crochet had thrown a combined 70 innings in relief at the major league level and he’s already at 118 on the season.  He hasn’t gone longer than 4 innings in more than a month and with the team more than 60 games under .500, there’s no need to push him at all. 

That will mean we’ll get more than half this game against the White Sox bullpen.  Over the last 2 weeks, the White Sox bullpen has an ERA that’s pushing 7 and for the full 2024 season, it’s over 5.  This is more a strategic play and it’s not for the faint of heart. 

I’ll build this stack around 4 guys that are putting the ball in play the most.  That’s going to be Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Pete Crow–Armstrong, and Michael Busch.  There’s a strong chance that Busch doesn’t play with a lefty on the mound, so we’ll want to monitor his status.  At most, these guys should only face Crochet once and then it will be a field day vs. White Sox bullpen. 

Other stacks I like tonight will be both sides of the Coors game, with the Braves being a priority, Cardinals vs. Michael Lorenzen, Giants vs. whoever the Tigers throw out, and Red Sox lefties vs. Ronel Blanco. I also really like the Blue Jays vs. Spence, especially a smoking hot Vlad Jr.

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Hump Day!  That’s right, it’s Wednesday and that means we’ll have a couple of different slates to play with.  I’ll be focused on the 7-game main slate of MLB DFS starting at 7 pm EST.  This slate is top-heavy with lefty aces.  We have Sale, Ragans, and Skubal on the hill tonight in what looks to be pretty tough matchups.  At the bottom of the barrel, we’ll also have some really great spots for offense. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

This is a tough slate for pitching.  Even though we have some studs on the mount in Sale and Skubal, they are in incredibly tough matchups.  The matchup with the Brewers for Sale is a tough one.  Over the last 30 days, the Brewers have struck out just 20% of the time vs. lefties.  They also have a wOBA of .355.  This really lowers the ceiling for the most expensive pitcher on the slate.  I am more than likely out on him. 

Next up is Skubal.  Earlier in the year, pitchers vs. the Mariners were a guarantee.  Not anymore, and especially not with some of the additions they made.  This is a much deeper lineup than it was a few weeks ago, even with Julio out.  Again, this is a matchup that lowers the ceiling of Skubal and he’s priced just behind Sale.  I’m not saying that these 2 aren’t in play, just that the matchup on paper isn’t great and they will have lower ceilings than normal. 

Cole Ragans ($9k on DK) vs. Boston Red Sox

This too isn’t the easiest of matchups as the Red Sox can put up a bunch of runs in a heartbeat.  That said, they are an extremely high strike-out team vs. lefties and they’re facing a lefty that can strike some people out, as evidenced by his 25% K rate over the last month.  This Red Sox lineup has 4 guys in it that have K rates well over 30% vs. lefties over the last month. 

If we dial that back to 25%, that would be 7 of the 9 guys.  Everyone in this lineup has power against lefties, but they have to be able to hit the ball in order to hit for power.  With this matchup and Ragan’s K ability, an 8 K game giving up 2-3 runs is very much in play and at a $9k salary would still hit value nicely.   

Freddy Peralta ($8.5k on DK) vs. Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves are really struggling right now.  They were completely dominated by Colin Rea last night as he went on to throw 7 shutout innings and strike out 9 Braves.  The game before that, they were shut out by the Marlins as Edward Cabrera went 5 innings and struck out 8. They are lost at the plate and we can attack them tonight with Freddy Peralta. 

The big concern for Freddy P is that he just throws a ton of pitches and that causes him to rarely go past 6 innings.  That said, his price is the lowest I’ve seen this season and with this matchup, he should easily outperform the $8.5k salary.  He faced the Braves a week ago and struck out 7 in 6 innings.  A repeat performance is not out of the question.

Other pitchers that I’ll be interested in will be Taj Bradley vs. St. Louis, George Kirby vs. Detroit, and Erick Fedde vs.  Tampa. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Kansas City Royals vs. Kutter Crawford

Kutter Crawford is in the midst of a brutal stretch of pitching.  Over his last 3 games, he’s allowed 16 ER and a mind-boggling 12 homers.  This isn’t the first stretch this season where he’s been like this.  There was also a stretch back in May/June that saw him give up 15 ER over 3 games as well so this is not necessarily an anomaly or bad luck. He’s someone that will have lapses in quality pitching and that’s what we’re seeing right now. 

It’s not going to get much easier for him today as he’s facing off against a strong lineup in the Royals.  The Royals have been pretty solid against righties this season as they have a .167 ISO vs. them and a .730 OPS.  I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits here as both righties and lefties have had almost identical numbers vs. him this season.  That said, lefties have a .591 ISO and a .528 wOBA vs. him over the last month.  Both are laughable numbers.

That means our good old friend Vinnie Pasquantino will be my priority here.  He continues to lead this offense, not letting Bobby Witt overshadow him.  Over the last week, Vinnie has 12 hits and has also driven in 13 runs.  He’s been in double-digit DK points in 6 of his last 7 games and that should continue this evening. 

I’ll also look to both MJ Melendez and Michael Massey here.  As is always the case, Witt is 100% in play if you have the cash lying around for him.  Other bats I like here are Hunter Renfroe and Freddy Fermin.  Both guys are hot at the plate right now. 

Baltimore Oriole vs. Bowden Francis

The Orioles burned us last night but the great thing about DFS is that we get to start all over again.  Chris Bassitt was brilliant last night, there’s no other way to put it.  He had command of all his pitchers and left the Orioles off balance all game long.  Kudos to him.  Today should be different.  The Blue Jays will turn the ball over to Bowden Francis this evening.  He’s appeared in 18 games so far this season and has started in 4 games. 

This season has been a real struggle for him.  Compared to his first full season in the bigs, his K’s are way down, his walks are way up, and his HR/9 are nearly double.  In just 44 innings of work, he’s already given up 10 bombs and has an ERA that’s pushing 6.

I said it yesterday and I’ll keep saying, Jackson Holliday looks like a completely different player than he was during his first call up. He looks way more confident and his swing looks way better.  He has hits in all but one game since his call up and has already homered 3 times over the last week.  He’s still super cheap at $3.2k, but that will change so we need to take advantage of it now. 

After Holliday, I’ll get guys like Santander, Henderson, Mountcastle, and Mullins.  Adley has been quiet for what feels like months, but he has started to put together better AB.  It’s only a matter of time before he breaks back through with a monster game. 

Other stacks I like tonight will be both sides of the Coors game, Dodgers vs. Tyler Phillips, and the Blue Jays vs. Trevor Rogers.  If you’re looking for a one-off play, Guerrero’s numbers vs. lefties over the last month are video game like.  He has a .857 ISO and a .829 wOBA.  I’ll be putting some money on him to homer tonight. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Taco Tuesday!  It’s Tuesday and that means a large slate.  Tonight we have ourselves a massive 11-game slate of MLB DFS.  With a loss tonight, the Chicago White Sox would break the AL record losing streak.  They’d also inch a game closer to the all-time record of 23, set by the 1961 Phillies.  After that, tonight slates brings us some underwhelming, but solid arms in plus matchups.  We also have some bats like the Mets and Yankees in great spots to put up some runs. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Sonny Gray ($9.6k on DK) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

The ERA for Sonny Gray is a little wonky over the last month at 5.19.  He had a couple of disappointing starts vs. the Nationals in there where he gave up 5 ER a piece and that has skewed that number a bit.  He came back to the old Sonny Gray in his last start vs. the Cubs, a 9-k 7-inning gem that saw him net 26 DK points.  With a matchup against the gutted Rays, I can see a similar outing out of him this evening. 

The Rays are now without Aroz, Amed Rosario, and Parades.  They are a much weaker lineup than they were a month ago, even with newcomers Christopher Morel and Dylan Carlson.  The projected lineup tonight for the Rays has a 30% K rate vs. righties over the last month and a sub .300 wOBA.  This is a smash spot for Gray tonight.  I have him as my SP1.   

Pablo Lopez ($8k on DK) vs. Chicago Cubs

Thanks to the gem thrown by Dave Festa last night, the Cubs managed to strike out a combined 14 times.  This is a lineup that at times can be extremely weak and we saw that last night as they were shut out.  With the weather conditions being conducive to pitching and Pablo Lopez on the hill, I would not be shocked to see them put up just a run or 2 again tonight.  Lopez is coming into this tilt in great form. 

Over the last month, Lopez has just a 2.52 ERA and an xFIP of 3.19.  He’s hit at least 23 DK points in 3 straight games and 5 of his last 7 games.  His only bad outing over that stretch was against a much better lineup in the Astros.  The forecast for tonight’s game is “chilly” at 70 degrees, but more importantly, the winds will be blowing in at 20 MPH.  If you follow baseball enough, you know there’s no stadium in baseball impacted by the weather more than Wrigley.  Look for this to be a low-scoring affair with Lopez and the Twins coming out on top. 

Other pitchers I’ll like tonight will be Luis Gil vs. the Angels, Shota Imanaga vs. Minnesota, and Luis Castillo vs. Detroit. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Orioles lefties vs. Chris Bassitt

Don’t’ get me wrong here, I like the entire Orioles squad tonight.  That said, I’m going to prioritize the lefties in this matchup.  Over the last 30 days, Bassitt has been getting crushed by them.  They have a .434 wOBA and a .196 ISO vs. him.  Bassitt is also giving up a nearly 50% hard-hit rate vs. them and also a nearly 30% fly ball rate. 

This is a spot where we can go home run chasing and if you know the Orioles, you know their power comes from the lefties.  Of the 12 homers he’s given up this season, 9 have been to lefties.

That will mean I’ll look to prioritize in this stack Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Ryan O’Hearn, Colton Cowser, and Jackson Holliday.  After really struggling in his first cup of coffee, Holliday looks like a completely different hitter.  In the 18 AB he’s had since his call-up, he has 7 hits and 2 homers.  He’s also driven in 7 runs since his call-up.  He’s still just $3.1k on DK, opening up a ton of salary relief so we can afford Gunnar and possibly Santander. 

For a while there, Santander was the play but Gunnar has come alive over his last 2 games.  His homer on Sunday was his first in nearly 3 weeks and he also has 6 hits in his last 2 games.  He’s one of my favorite plays on this entire slate.  I’m going also going to make sure Cowser gets into my stack.  He’s red hot at the plate, with 21 hits in his last 53 AB.  Cowser has also combined for 27 runs and RBI over the last 2 weeks.  $4.3k is a very reasonable price tag for his recent production and he’s leading off. 

Royals lefties vs. Brayan Bello

The Royals should be able to score a whole bunch of runs tonight against Brayan Bello.  Brayan Bello has a very clear weakness and that’s lefty power.  Of the 17 bombs he’s given up this season, 11 have been to lefties and they have an .849 OPS vs. him.  He’s been especially bad vs. them over the last 30 days as they have a 52% hard-hit rate and greater than 30% line drive rate.  This is an exploitable spot. 

While I’ll be stacking the Royals here, Bobby Witt isn’t a necessity to this spack.  Especially knowing that Gunnar will be manning SS in my stacks.  I plan on loading up on Vinnie Pasquantino and MJ Melendez here.  Melendez has been on fire vs. righties over the last month.  Over his last 38 AB vs. righties, he has a .432 ISO and a .399 wOBA.  He’s super cheap tonight at $3.2k on DK tonight.  We’ll need the payroll flexibility to fit in Vinnie Pasquantino. 

Although the focus has been on Witt’s epic run, Vinnie has been the hottest hitter on this team over the last couple of weeks.  Over his last 54 AB, he has 19 hits and 5 homers.  Over the last 2 weeks, he leads the team in OPS at 1.05 and wRC at 13.  Vinnie has also driven in 16 runs over the last 2 weeks.  Bobby Witt is certainly in play here, but again, I’m just not going to force him in.  

Other Attackable Spots

Yankees vs. Davis Daniel – Outside of Aaron Judge, I’d prioritize the lefties here.  Daniel has just a 14% k rate vs. them over the last 30 days and has given up a nearly .340 wOBA.  Soto, Wells, Jazz, and Ben Rice. 

Mariners vs. Keider Montero – He’s given up 7 homers in his last 28 innings and has allowed a nearly 40% hard-hit rate.  Victor Robles, Justin Turner, and Aroz.

A’s vs. Jonathan Cannon – Rooker, Butler, Andujar, and Shea would be by plays

Both sides of the Coors game.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Happy Saturday Y’all!  We finally made it to the weekend and I don’t know about you, I needed it!  Tonight we have a massive 10-game slate of MLB DFS to work with.  Like last night, we don’t have a pitcher over $10k.  This slate brings us some really good arms in good spots.  I’ll continue to attack teams like the Marlins and White Sox any chance I get.   

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Hunter Greene ($8.7k on DK) vs. San Francisco Giants

Hunter Greene is in the midst of one of the best stretches of his young career.  Over his last 8 starts, Greene has given up more than 2 ER just once and the one game he did, it was more than likely due to him being sick as he threw up on the mound.  He’s also given up just 2 ER over his last 5 starts.  While the K’s are down a smidge this year compared to his first 2 seasons, one of the big reasons he’s done so well this year is that he’s cut down big time on his HR. 

Coming into this season, he’s had a HR/9 over 1.55 in each.  This season that number is down .72.  Of the teams playing tonight, the Giants are in the bottom half in runs scored over the last 2 weeks.  6 of the 9 guys in the projected lineup tonight have a wOBA under .300 over the last month against righties.  This is a matchup that Greene should continue his dominance in.  He’s my SP1 today. 

Bailey Obert ($8.4k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

I’m going to continue to attack the White Sox any chance I get.  They’ve now lost 18 in a row and after today that should increase to 19.  At 27-85, there’s a real chance that the White Sox will be 60 games under .500 by the end of this series.  They are also on pace to shatter the all-time loss record in a season.  Over the last 2 weeks, they’ve scored just 21 runs.  The next closest team is at 39 runs.  It’s as bad of an offense as there is in baseball. 

The good news is that we get to attack them with a pitcher who has finally put it all together and is having a breakout season.  His K rate over the last month is at 29% and would rank third of all the pitchers on the mound.  Trailing just Greene and Crochet.  This is a ceiling-type game for him and would not be shocked to see him cross 30 DK points tonight. 

I want to touch on the 2 most expensive pitchers tonight.  Those are Jack Flaherty of the Dodgers and Garrett Crochet of the White Sox.  I have little interest in either pitcher tonight.  Crochet gets arguably the toughest matchup on the board tonight against the Twins.  He hasn’t gone more than 4 innings in a game since June.  I’m out on him.  Flaherty is still pitching well but isn’t lighting it up like he once was and there’s always an injury concern with him and his back.  I can’t see the Dodgers really pushing him hard to go that long. 

The only other pitcher I have an interest in tonight will be Ronel Blanco vs. Tampa.  

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Minnesota Twins vs. Garrett Crochet

You can call me crazy for this one and I’d get it.  I 100% understand if you have little to no interest in the Twins tonight.  The only contests I play are GPP and to me, this is a 100% GPP play.  If you look at the last few outings of Crochet, they haven’t been particularly spectacular like they were at the start of the season.  The White Sox are dialing back his innings and he hasn’t gone more than 4 innings since his last start in June. 

His last outing was not good, as he allowed 3 ER to the lowly Mariners in 3 innings pitched.  With a much tougher assignment today vs. the Twins, I could see a similar outing and then the ball would get turned over to the worst pen in the league.  A pen that has an ERA well over 6 over the last 2 weeks.  A pen that gave up 6 ER yesterday.

Any Twins stack should start with Royce Lewis.  He had another monster night at the plate, going 2-4 with 4 RBI and 2 runs scored.  Against lefties this season he has a .463 wOBA and a 1.147 OPS.  Even if he has to face Crochet a couple of times through the order, he can still do damage to a pitcher who isn’t quite as elite as he was earlier in the year. 

After Lewis I’ll make sure to get in guys like Byron Buxton, Carlos Santana, and Willi Castro.  Again, this isn’t a stack for the faint of hearts and it very well could blow up in my face.  To quote the legend, Ricky Bobby, “If you aren’t first, you’re last”.

New York Mets vs. Jose Siriano

The New York Mets have been one of the best teams in baseball since June 1.  They are currently winners of 7 of their last 10 and are currently sitting in the last Wild Card spot.  They get a strong matchup tonight vs. a pitcher in Jose Siriano who is a low strikeout/high contact pitcher.  Hitters have a contact rate over 80% vs. him over the last month. 

In 3 of his last 5 games, opponents have gone on to score at least 5 ER against him and the Angels bullpen.  His only 2 good starts were against a Mariners team that has been absolutely terrible vs. righties this season.  Siriano is essentially a reverse split pitcher.  Righties have a .473 wOBA vs. him over the last month and a .363 wOBA against him over the full season. 

Core Bats: Mark Vientos, Pete Alonso, JD Martinez, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Bats: Brandon Nimmo, Jesse Winker, Jeff McNeil

Before commenting on the Red Sox, I want to know how’s starting for them.  Right now I’ve seen it anywhere from TBD, to Dane Dunning, to Cody Bradford.  If it’s Dunning, they are one of my top stacks on the day.  Same for Bradford.  Other stacks I like today will be the Dodgers vs. Mitch Pence, Braves vs. Kyle Tyler, and Orioles vs. Joey Cantillo. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

TGIF!  It’s Friday and that will mean that we have a big slate to play with.  Tonigh, we have an 11-game slate of MLB DFS.  This is a slate that doesn’t have a pitcher over $10k.  It’s a slate that has a bunch of quality arms, but not a single arm that screams a ‘must play’.  I’m going to continue to attack bad teams with above average arms and we’ll be able to do with that today.  With so many teams in action today, we should see ownership spread out. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Joe Ryan ($9.7k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

I’m not normally a fan of paying this much for a guy like Joe Ryan, a guy who is normally pretty inconsistent.  That said, he is pitching really well right now and gets the greatest matchup in the history of baseball.  This is an awful White Sox team.  Will it work 100% of the time attacking them?  No, it won’t always work.  More often than not though, it will.  The projected White Sox lineup tonight has a nearly 26% k rate vs. righties this season, a .133 ISO, and a .270 wOBA. 

Over the last 30 days, those numbers jump to a nearly 27% K rate, a .109 ISO, and a .237 wOBA.  This is a smash spot for Joe Ryan tonight.  He hasn’t had less than 6 K’s in a start since June and should be able to strike out a ton of White Sox tonight.  I’m locking in Joe Ryan as my SP1 tonight.  Look for the White Sox to lose their 18^th straight game tonight. 

Spencer Schwellenbach ($8.8k on DK) vs. Miami Marlins

I’m going to continue to attack bad teams with good pitchers.  Spencer Schwellenbach is coming into his own after getting called up to the bigs at the end of May.  Over the last 30 days, he’s been phenomenal.  He has just a 2.08 ERA over the last 30 days and a K rate of nearly 29%.  Schwellanbach is coming off the best start of his career, a 7-inning 11 K gem vs. my New York Mets. 

Again, it’s baseball, a highly variant spot where anything can happen.  I’m going to take my chances against a team that will throw out a potential lineup that has a 30% K rate vs. righties over the last month and an ISO of just .110.  Schwellanbach is going to be my SP2 tonight. 

The other pitchers that I’ll have interest in tonight will be Yusei Kikuchi vs. Tampa, Tyler Phillips vs. Seattle, and maybe Gavin Stone vs. Oakland.  

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Atlanta Braves vs. Valente Bellozo

The Miami Marlins are expected to call up Valenta Bellozo today to make the start vs. the Atlanta Braves.  Bellozo has only appeared in 2 games in the Major Leagues and has had mixed results.  In his first outing against the Royals, he was superb, only allowing 2 hits in 5 innings of work.  In his second out, he was horrendous, allowing 5 ER in 5 innings of work vs. the Red Sox. 

I’m going to side with the outing vs. the Red Sox.  His numbers this season at AAA have not been good as he has a 4.67 ERA and an xFIP over 5.  His control at AAA has been terrible, with a 4.41 BB/9.  While it’s always tough to gauge how an inexperienced rookie can be, I’m going to take my chances on the Braves tonight as they get this matchup plus they are hitting the ball well again.

I’m going to go home run chasing here and will start with Marcel Ozuna and Matt Olson.  Over the last 2 weeks, both of these guys have homered 5 times.  In terms of priority, I’m going to give the slight edge to Matt Olson.  For starters, he’s significantly cheaper at $4.8k compared to Ozuna’s $5.7k salary.  He’s also going to get the platoon advantage and that’s always key.  Olson has now homered in back-to-back games and has homered in 4 of his last 6 games.  In what could be considered a disappointing season for him compared to last year, he’s rolling right now at the right time for the  Braves. 

After Ozuna and Olson, I’ll look to guys like Jorge Soler, Orlando Arcia, and Austin Riley to round out my stack.  If you want to snag more lefties, and cheap lefties, Jarred Kelenic and Eddie Rosario will accomplish that.  Neither is a priority as both guys are mostly slumping and are more likely to strikeout than get a hit.

Minnesota Twins vs. Davis Martin and the White Sox Bullpen

The Chicago White Sox will turn the ball over to Davis Martin tonight.  Martin is making just the second appearance of the season in the Majors after missing more than a year thanks to TJ surgery.  He’s pitched a total of 23 innings this season across multiple levels of the minors and his relief appearance the other day. 

With how few innings he’s pitched, we should expect this to mostly be a bullpen game for the Sox.  Over the last 2 weeks, the White Sox bullpen has an ERA of 6 and an xFIP of 5.  We have the potential to see 6 innings or more of the bullpen tonight.  That would be phenomenal for us.

When healthy, there are few bats that are as potent as Royce Lewis.  In just 30 games this season, he’s homered 11 times.  Spread out over the course of a full season, that would equate to nearly 60 homers.  I’m not saying he’d be able to keep up that pace for a full year, but he has that type of strength to be able to homer that frequently.  He’s just never healthy.  He is now and I’m going to lock him into my Twins stack. 

Next up will be Matt Wallner who is crushing the ball right now.  He has 3 homers over his last 22 AB and a 1.35 OPS.  He’s also just $3.5k on DK.  Other bats I like here are Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Santana.  Don’t be surprised to see the Twins get into double digits tonight. 

Other stacks I like tonight will be Boston vs. Jose Urena, Yankees vs. Kevin Gausman, O’s vs. Carlos Carrasco, and A’s vs. Gavin Stone.  There are a ton of bats in great spots tonight. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Hump Day!  Hope you all enjoyed yesterday’s eventful trade deadline!  A couple of things have been made very clear.  The Marlins have one amazing farm system now and the White Sox may never win another game.  Also, adding Jack Flaherty to their rotation, the Dodgers may have a historically good rotation heading into the playoffs.  Back to today’s slate, this is a slate that has a bunch of really solid arms.  It also has some amazing spots for bats. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Taj Bradley ($9.5k on DK) vs. Miami Marlins

Don’t get me wrong here, Chris Sale is the most talented pitcher on this slate, and by a decent margin.  He’s the SP1 on this slate, but I’m more than likely fading him so I can attack the 2 worst lineups in the game.  Taj Bradley is going to be my main pitcher today.  He’s coming into this game on the heels of 3 straight gems and gems in 4 of his last 5 games.  In his 11 starts this season, he’s been below 20 DK points in just 3 of them and he’s been in single-digit DK points just once. 

Anything can happen in baseball, but I’m going to take my chances on a pitcher that has a near 11 K/9 vs. a projected lineup that has just a .102 ISO and a .290 wOBA vs. righties this season.  While the Marlins stocked up on prospects yesterday, this is a bad lineup that only got worse with trading both Jazz Chisholm and Josh Bell.  Bradley is my SP1 today.

Brady Singer ($8.2k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

Last night we saw Michael Wacha put together a strong performance against a terrible White Sox team.  A White Sox team that now has lost 16 games in a row and is well on pace to shatter the New York Mets record of 120 losses in a season.  Against a terrible White Sox lineup, Brady Singer makes for an excellent SP2.  He’s coming into this having scored at least 26 DK points in 3 of his last 4 games, with a negative outing in there against a really good Red Sox lineup. 

Singer has been very strong over the last month, with a 1.88 ERA and allowing just a 22% hard-hit rate.  The White Sox projected lineup today has a nearly 27% K rate vs. righties this season and a .269 wOBA.  Just awful stuff.  I’m locking in a pitcher that has immense upside today. 

I mentioned above that Chris Sale is 100% in play.  I’m just going to fade him today because I feel like there are other pitchers that have similar upside thanks to their talent and matchup combined.  Other pitchers I like today will be Freddy Peralta vs. Atlanta and Grayson Rodriguez vs. Toronto.  That said, I’m not straying from Bradley and Singer today. They are my 2 pitchers. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Baltimore Orioles vs. Paolo Espino

The Toronto Blue Jays will turn the ball over to Paolo Espino today to take on the Orioles.  This should be music to our ears as he’s just not good and at 37 years old, isn’t going to all of a sudden get better.  In the Minors this season in Buffalo, Espino has a 5.09 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. 

Over his Major League career, Espino has a 5.06 ERA and a HR/9 of 1.86.  I’m going to focus on that HR number as we can certainly chase some power today for the O’s.  I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits with Espino because if we look at his career numbers, both sides of the plate have an OPS over .800 vs. him. 

I’m starting my Orioles stack with Anthony Santander.  He’s been on fire of late and has 7 homers over the last 2 weeks.  Against righties this year he has an OPS of .849 and 23 of his 31 homers have been when hitting lefty.  He’s quietly one of the top home run hitters in the league this season as only Judge and Ohtani have hit more.  Next up for me will be Colton Cowser. 

With him now hitting in the leadoff spot, he’s been on fire.  Cowser currently has a 12-game hitting streak and with this matchup this afternoon, should be able to extend it.   A leadoff bomb out of him is not out of the question here.  This entire lineup is in play today.  Both Henderson and Rutschman are in play today as well, I’m just not going to prioritize them as their recent production + price make them both a secondary play.  Espino very well could be the slump buster that both of them need though. 

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Nestor Cortes

The Phillies get a great matchup vs. a pitcher in Nestor Cortes who is currently struggling.  Over his last 6 starts, he’s given up less than 3 ER just once and has given up a combined 15 runs over his last 3.  The home run ball is giving him some major heartache as he’s given up at least 1 in 5 of his last 6 games.  His last start was the only one where he didn’t give up a bomb, yet he still gave up 4 ER to the Red Sox in just under 5 innings of work. 

Where you want to attack Cortes is with righties.  18 of the 19 homers he’s given up this year have been to righties and they also have a .474 slugging percentage vs. him.  Thankfully, the Phillies have a slew of righty bats that are crushing it right now, which is going to make for a short day for Cortes. 

The Phillies have 4 guys with wOBA’s over .400 vs. lefties over the last month.  Here’s the order which I’m going to rank them: Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, and Kyle Schwarber.  Schwarber is the riskiest of the 4 but also will come in at the lowest ownership thanks to having the l/l matchup.  He’s certainly a K risk here, but Schwarber has been amazing vs. lefties this season.  He has a .345 AVG and an OPS of 1.041.  At home vs. lefties, Schwarber has a 1.150 OPS vs. them.  Again, he’s going to be the riskiest of the bunch, but oh boy does he have major upside here. 

Turner is the safer of the plays as he has a .500 ISO vs. lefties over the last 30 days.  Other bats I’ll look to use here will be Austin Hays (sounds weird not being on the O’s), Edmundo Sosa, and Johan Rojas.  JT Realmuto is also in play, but we don’t have endless cash to play with. 

Other stacks I like today will be the Cardinals vs. Andrew Heaney, Rays vs. Rodder Munoz, and Royals vs. Mr -17 DK points, Drew Thorpe. nnon and the White Sox pen is also very much in play.  As you can see, there are a lot of great options for offense tonight.

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Taco Tuesday!  Tonight we have ourselves a massive 11-game slate of MLB DFS.  Tonight we’ll need to treat MLB DFS like NBA DFS as it’s Deadline Day!  We’ll need to be glued to our phones as trades will have a huge impact on our lineups. Thankfully the deadline is a full hour before the main slate starts. 

Back to the controllables, this slate looks to be a fun one.  We have Robbie Ray making his second appearance of the season, and if it’s anything like his first, we’ll want to make sure we have him as our SP1.  This slate also has a ton of great spots for offense. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Robbie Ray ($8.2k on DK) vs. Oakland Athletics

He’s back!  Robbie Ray returned last week and showed that he still has all the talent in the world that helped him win the 2021 Cy Young Award.  In that outing, he proceeded to strike out 8 Dodgers en route to a 26 DK-point outing.  He gets a much easier task tonight as he faces off against the Oakland Athletics.  While the A’s have been playing better of late, they are still a team with a 24% K rate vs. lefties this season.  They have 4 guys in this lineup that have at least a 30% K rate vs. lefties this season. 

There’s also a very real chance that the heart and soul of this lineup, Brent Rooker, gets traded prior to this game, completely eliminating his power from this lineup.  I’m going to be locking in Robbie Ray as my SP1.  It’s only a matter of time before his price goes back to its rightful place around $10k. 

Hunter Brown ($9k on DK) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Next up for me today will be Hunter Brown of the Houston Astros.  Brown has been very strong of late, with an ERA of 3 over the last month and an xFIP just a smidge higher at 3.67.  He’s coming into this in peak form, having been over 20 DK points in 2 straight and 7 of his last 9 games.  While he’s only been above 30 DK points once this season, he’s been an extremely reliable arm for us and more often than not has been in the mid-20-point range. 

He gets a solid matchup vs. an average Pirates lineup.  On the year, the Pirates have been weak against righties.  They have a 24% K rate vs. them and just a .653 OPS.  They just haven’t been hitting for much power vs. righties, making this pick of Brown a mostly safe one at a very reasonable price for the type of production we’ve been seeing from him.  With

If I was picking a starter out of the arms we have tonight to start a playoff game, Tyler Glasnow would be at the top of the list.  For the purposes of DFS though, he is not.  He’s still in play but he’s the most expensive pitcher on this slate and he lacks the upside I’m looking for out of a $10k pitcher.  Other arms I am interested in are going to be Luis Castillo vs. Boston, Michael Wacha vs. Chicago, and Justin Steele vs. Cincy.  More than likely though, I’m not straying from Ray/Brown.    

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Patrick Corbin and the Nationals bullpen

I added in the bullpen blurb because the Nats bullpen has been atrocious of late.  Over the last 2 weeks, the Nats bullpen has an ERA of 5.54 and an xFIP of 4.63 which also indicates that it is bad.  Ok, back to Corbin.  You all know I love stacking against him.  I haven’t done it as much this season because tbh, he hasn’t been as bad as he normally is.  That said, this matchup is about as bad for Corbin as there possibly is. 

The way you attack Corbin is with righty power and the Dbacks have that.  Against lefties this season, the Dbacks have .762 OPS and a .331 wOBA.  From a handedness matchup, this is about as good as it gets for any of the teams playing tonight.  Righties recently have a nearly 53% hard-hit vs. Corbin this season. 

I’m going to be mostly focused on a handful of guys from this lineup.  Ketel Marte is far and away the top play in this lineup and he’s someone that is going to be a core to my Dbacks stack.  Against lefties this season, Marte has 14 homers and an OPS of 1.113.  He’s been one of the top lefty smashers in baseball this season and although he’s priced high, I’m going to force him into my lineups. 

For some salary savings, I’m going to also look at guys like Gabriel Moreno, Eugenio Saurez, Kevin Newman, and Randal Grichuk.  All of these guys are priced under $4k and have been known to produce against lefties.  Of that group, Suarez is my favorite as he’s been hitting the ball well of late.  The one guy I don’t have mentioned here is Christian Walker.  He left yesterday’s game with an oblique injury and we’ll need to monitor his status.  If he’s in, I like him as well. 

Texas Ranger vs. Lance Lynn

I’m going to go against the grain a bit here and target Lance Lynn.  Lance Lynn has not been good recently.  Over the last month, he’s been terrible with a 5.49 ERA and an xFIP even higher.  He’s been getting rocked as he’s given up 12 barrels in his last 19 innings of work.  Where we want to target Lynn is with lefties.  Not only has his K rate dipped to just 10.9% against them over the last month, but they’re crushing him when they make contact. 

Lefties have a massive 55% hard-hit rate vs. him over the last 30 days and a .459 wOBA.  9 of the 14 homers he’s given up this season have been to lefties.  Thankfully, the Rangers have a bunch of lefties in this lineup.

A Rangers should start with Corey Seager.  Seager has been hitting the ball pretty well lately, with 13 hits in his last 40 AB and a .880 OPS.  He also has a hard-hit rate of nearly 65% over the last 2 weeks.  If you decide to fade a guy like Marte tonight, Seager makes for a nice alternative and probably won’t be as highly owned. 

After Seager, I also want Nate Lowe.  Lowe has been arguably their best hitter since the All-Star break, with 3 homers and 8 RBI.  Other guys that I’ll look to get into this stack today will be Josh Smith, Jonah Heim, Marcus Semien, and Adolis Garcia.  

Other stacks I like today will be the Mets vs. David Fester, Mariners vs. James Paxton, and Braves vs. Frankie Montas.  The Royals vs. Jonathan Cannon and the White Sox pen is also very much in play.  As you can see, there are a lot of great options for offense tonight.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Happy Saturday Y’all!  Today we’ll have a fairly large slate for a Saturday with a 9-game slate of MLB DFS starting at 7 pm est.  This slate brings us a pitcher in Seth Lugo who is one of the top feel-good stories this season.  It also brings us a bunch of average arms with no true ace.  What it does bring us though is a bunch of bats in good positions to perform.   
Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Seth Lugo ($9.6k on DK) vs. Chicago Cubs

Seth Lugo is turning into a stud right before our eyes.  As a Mets fan, it’s bittersweet.  He was a great bullpen arm for us and all he wanted to do was start.  Now that he’s been getting that chance, he’s been taking full advantage of it.  While I wish the K rate was a little bit higher, this is a slate without a true K guy so I’m willing to overlook his 26% K rate over the last month because there really isn’t much above him with who we have to work with tonight. 

He draws a favorable matchup tonight vs. a Cubs team that sits in last place in the NL Central at 7 games under .500.  With how Milwaukee and the Mets are playing, one has to wonder if Counsell is second-guessing himself for bolting the Brewers and shunning the Mets.  Look for Lugo to be one of the top scoring pitchers on this slate. 

Bryan Woo ($8.3k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

I guess I’m going to be picking on both teams from the Windy City tonight as I’ll look to use Bryan Woo as my second pitcher on DK tonight.  Woo has been up and down this season as he’s been battling health issues and inconsistent pitching.  We’ve seen him throw gems against teams like the A’s and Yankees, but we’ve also seen him throw duds against teams like the Angels.  In his last outing, he had one of his better starts of the season against the Astros. 

With Woo getting one of the best matchups on the board tonight against the White Sox, I’m looking for him to have another strong outing tonight.  The White Sox offense is terrible, having scored the fewest runs in all of baseball and by quite large number.  Woo and his groundball tendencies and ability to limit hard contact should have a nice night tonight. 

The other pitchers I like tonight are going to be Brandon Pfaadt vs. Pittsburgh, Blake Snell vs. Colorado, and Erick Fedde vs. Seattle.      

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Marco Gonzales

In his 5 starts this season, Marco Gonzales hasn’t pitched that poorly.  His ERA is sitting at 2.70.  His xERA however is double that at 5.45 which is in line with his career numbers.  Gonzales’s ERA this season is an outlier and I’m expecting him to regress to his career numbers and I’m expecting that to happen tonight against one of the top teams in the leagues vs. lefties. 

The Diamondbacks have been crushing lefties most of this season, as evidenced by his .757 OPS and .329 wOBA.  I’m going to be mostly focused on the righties in this stack as because Gonzales has historically given up more power to righties than he has lefties.  His strike-out rate also plummets when he faces righties. 

The 2 guys that I’m most interested in here are Ketel Marte and Eugenio Suarez.  Both guys are the hottest hitters in this lineup and both historically crush lefties.  Marte has .454 wOBA and a 1.093 OPS vs. lefties this season.  13 of 22 bombs have also come against lefties.  If we look at his recent production, he’s in peak form and I’m willing to pay his $5.5k salary tonight.  

Next up is Suarez who is significantly cheaper and makes of a strong value play tonight.  He has 11 hits in his last 35 AB and has also homered 3 times over that stretch.  He’ll look to keep the good times rolling tonight in this plus matchup.  Other bats I like here are going to be Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel, Gabriel Moren, and Randal Grichuk.  

Boston Red Sox vs. Marcus Stroman

I’m expecting this Red Sox/Yankees game to be another slugfest. These 2 teams faced off last night and combined for 16 runs.  With the pitching matchup we have tonight, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeat.  I’m going to side with the Red Sox in this one as they get a nice matchup vs. a pitcher in Marcus Stroman who has not been overly strong.  Over the last month, his xFIP is sitting at 4.76 and an ERA of 5.21.  He’s been giving up a ton of hard contact at 38% and has been letting a decent number of hitters on with a 1.53 WHIP. 

His only saving grace is that he hasn’t been giving up too many flyballs with a 37% flyball rate. That said, when hitters do get the ball in the air they’ve been leaving the park.  His HR/FB is sitting at 22.7% over the last month, the highest of anyone pitching tonight. 

I’m going to prioritize the lefties in this matchup as they have a .900 OPS vs. him this season.  That means Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers will be the biggest targets here.  Since we have a salary, if I can only afford one of them this evening I’m going to side ever so slightly with Jarren Duran.  He’s a smidge cheaper and has been a little more productive recently.  He has 18 hits in his last 40 AB and has also scored 12 runs. 

That said, Devers isn’t far behind him with 12 hits in his last 33 AB and a 1.15 OPS.  The value play here I like is going to Masataka Yoshida.  He’s also hitting the ball well right now and comes in at just $3.7k.  Other bats I like her will be Wilyer Abreu, Tyler O’Neill, Dom Smith, and  David Hamilton. 

Other Bats

I think that the Marlins can be sneaky tonight vs. Aaron Civale.  Civale has been getting clobbered and the Marlins have been putting up some runs recently.  My targets here would be Josh Bell, Jake Burger, and Jesus Sanchez.  Angels vs. Mitch Spense are also in play.  Nolan Schanuel, Luis Rengifo, and Logan O’Hoppe would be may targets.  I’ve been on the A’s quite a bit recently but they take on Tyler Anderson and he’s actually been putting up some decent starts so I will more than likely fade them tonight. 

I mentioned the Yanks/Sox game could be a slugfest against tonight so the Yankees vs. Kutter Crawford are in play.  Judge/Soto would be the play but again, we don’t have unlimited cash to play with.  They aren’t a priority but are in play.  Tyler Fitzgerald has been the second coming of Willie Mays recently and would be a bat to play if you want to stack the Giants vs. Ryan Feltner.  A full Giants stack vs. Ryan Feltner is in play. 
 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

TGIF!  It’s Friday and that means we have a full slate of MLB DFS ahead of us.  Tonight we have a massive 12-game slate to work with.  As we approach the trade deadline, we’ll start to see the good teams get better and the bad teams get worse.  The Marlins bullpen took a huge hit yesterday as they traded away AJ Puk.  While they gained some decent prospects, a bad team just got worse.  Early Friday morning, the Rays flipped Aroz to Seattle.  Not sure how much this will impact an already terrible lineup for the Seattle.  Back to tonight’s slate.  It looks to be a solid one with good pitchers throwing against bad teams and good offenses facing bad pitchers. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

George Kirby ($9.6k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

Over the last 4 days, we’ve seen pitchers like Jon Gray, Michael Lorenzen, Nate Eovaldi, and the aging Max Scherzer throw gems vs. this White Sox team.  After seeing what those 4 did vs. them, I can only imagine what a pitcher like George Kirby could do.  Nothing in life is guaranteed and occasionally a blind squirrel will find his nut, but I just don’t see that happening tonight. Kirby is coming into this matchup in peak form. 

Over the last month, he’s pitched to an ERA 2.37 and he has an xFIP nearly identical to it.  He also has a pretty solid 28% K rate over that month.  Kirby gets to take on a terrible White Sox team that has only scored 17 runs while striking out 30% of the time over the last 2 weeks.  Kirby is my SP1 and it’s not even close tonight. 

Drew Thorpe ($6.6k on DK) vs. Seattle Mariners

Because of Thorpe’s price, I’m willing to sacrifice the 4-point W here.  Yes, I’m planning on using 2 pitchers from the same game here.  Why you ask?  They are 2 of the worst offenses in the game right now.  Over the last 2 weeks, the Mariners have struck out 31% of the time and scored just 19 runs.  This is a lineup that has lost both Julio Rodriguez and JP Crawford to injuries over the last week.  While there’s a chance that Aroz suits for them tonight, he’s not going to be one to move the needle enough to make this lineup any better.  He’s having the worst season of his career and by quite a bit. 

Drew Thorpe is also someone who is pitching well.  Over his last 5 starts, he’s been at 19 DK points or greater in 4 of them.  With facing the team with the highest strikeout rate in baseball, we’re chasing a ceiling-type game from a pitcher that is pitching well and is dirt cheap. 

The other pitchers that I’ll be interested in tonight will be Freddy Peralta vs. Miami, Grayson Rodriguez vs. San Diego, and Sonny Gray vs. Washington.       

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Baltimore Orioles vs. Adam Mazur

I said it in Discord yesterday that the Orioles were a smoking time bomb that was ready to go off.  They proceeded to put up 7 runs vs. the fish yesterday and if it wasn’t for some terrible baserunning in the tenth, they would have scored more.  They get another great matchup today that plays into the strengths of the Orioles, a pitcher that is terrible vs. lefties.  Lefties have really been Mazur’s weakness.

They have a .239 ISO and a .442 wOBA vs. him this season.  They also have a 1.032 OPS vs. him.  The way this Orioles lineup is built, it’s going to be a very challenging start for the Padres rookie.  He’s now made 7 starts in the bigs and has given up at least 3 ER in all but 2 of them.  In his last 3 starts, he’s given up at least 4 ER in all of them. 

The bat that I’m going to be most interested in here tonight will be Anthony Santander.  He’s been incredible this season and especially of late.  He has 5 homers over the last 2 weeks and 10 RBI.  With him being a switch hitter, I much prefer to use him when he’s hitting as a lefty as 22 of his 28 homers have come from the left side.  He’s my priority here. 

After him, I’m going to look to include Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, and Ryan O’Hearn.  Cowser is my next priority after Santander as he’s still cheap and hitting the ball well.   He has 10 hits in his last 27 AB and 9 RBI.  That’s a lot of production for someone who is just $3.5k tonight. 

Oakland A’s vs. Carson Fulmer

Carson Fulmer gets to take on the freight train otherwise known as the Oakland Athletics.  Of the teams in action tonight, no one has scored more runs over the last 2 weeks than the Oakland A’s.  Their offense is really clicking right now and it’s helped them bring their run differential down to just -66.  I say “just” because a few weeks ago it was well over 100.  They’ve been putting up a serious number of runs game in and game out when they face a non-ace level pitcher. 

They face that tonight with Fulmer.  While  Fulmer hasn’t pitched that badly, he’s also someone who really hasn’t gone long into games.  The longest he’s gone all season has been 4.2 innings.  His last outing was against this same A’s team and he gave up 3 runs in his 4 innings of work.  The Angels bullpen has a 4.51 xFIP over the last 2 weeks, the 4^th highest number in baseball. 

I’m starting off this stack with the next best thing since sliced bread, Lawrence Butler.  Butler has 19 hits in his last 37 AB, including 6 homers and 17 RBI.  He’s also added 13 runs scored and 7 other XBH.  The dude has been on fire and he’s still priced under $4k.  It’s only a matter of time before his price catches up to his performance. 

While I normally don’t like to play too many hitters out of the 9 hole, I’m in on Max Schuemann today.  Over the last 2 weeks, Max (I’m not trying to spell his last name again) has 13 hits in 34 AB, but more importantly, he’s scored 14 runs thanks to Butler’s ability to knock in runs.  He’s an amazing value at $2.7k tonight.  Other guys I like here are going to be will be MVP candidate Brent Rooker, Miguel Andujar, Seth Brown, and Zack Gelof. 

Other Bats

I’m replacing my ‘other stacks’ sections with one-off bats that I like in today’s matchups.  Nestor Cortes and Shtick have become overrated.  He’s really struggled with righties this season, especially over the last month.  That’s going to lead me to guys like Rob Refsnyder, Tyler O’Neill, and Romy Gonzalez from the Red Sox. 

Next up, I like some Royals lefties vs. Kyle Hendricks.  Guys like Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey, and Kyle Isbel get to take on a pitcher who is giving up a .364 ISO and a .482 wOBA to lefties over the last month.  

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