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Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

It’s the Monday funday and today we have a shortened slate.  We have only a 6-game slate of MLB DFS tonight.  This slate has some solid options up top in terms of pitching.  We also have some solid spots for bats.  One question that will be burning for everyone will be what to do with Domingo German as he’s coming off MLB’s 24th perfect game.  Prior to that, he had been awful. 

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Blake Snell vs. Los Angeles Angels

The matchup isn’t the greatest for Blake Snell tonight as he’s facing the best hitter the game has probably ever seen.  But you have to respect what he’s done over the last 30+ days.  Over his last 31 innings of work, Blake Snell has a 47% strike-out rate.  Think about that for a second.  He’s striking out pretty darn close to 50% of the batters that he’s facing.  He has 4 consecutive starts with double-digit k’s and he hasn’t been under 6 strikeouts since all the way back on 5/19. 

He’s also been over 20 DK points in 6 consecutive starts.  He’s also only $8.6k tonight on DK.  As long as he gives Shohei Ohtani the Barry Bonds treatment today, he should be able to navigate this lineup.  He definitely comes with some risk tonight, but he also comes with massive upside at this price. 

Joe Ryan vs. Kansas City Royals

I’m not really sold on the talents of Joe Ryan, but he has had some massive games this season and gets a matchup tonight vs. a Royals team in which he very well could have a massive game again.  Ryan is coming off a poor outing against the Atlanta Braves but we’ll cut him some slack because well, it’s the Braves and they have by far the best lineup in the game of baseball right now. 

Prior to that, Ryan had a 45-point outing against a decent Red Sox lineup.  Ryan has been the model of inconsistency this season and because of that, he makes for a great GPP play.  He has real upside tonight against this bad Royals team.  Against righties this season, the Royals have a nearly 25% k rate and just a .659 OPS.  Ryan should be able to have an above-average game vs. a below-average lineup. 

Other pitchers I’m going to have my eye on tonight will be Bryan Woo vs. the Giants and Tyler Wells vs. the Yankees.  The Mets starters just walked through the Giants and Woo can definitely do the same vs. them.  The Yankees are a watered-down lineup these days and Wells has been really solid.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

San Diego Padres vs. Jaime Barria

The disappointing San Diego Padres get the matchup of a lifetime tonight against Jaime Barrie.  Well, maybe not the matchup of a lifetime, but they do get a good one.  Barria has struggled somewhat over the last month.  Over his last 15 innings of work. Barria has pitched to an ERA of 5.87.  His xFIP is even higher at 6.48.  He’s been letting up homers at an epic pace as he’s allowed 5 in those 15 innings.  That’s just not good. 

He’s also giving up way too many barrels.  11 in 15 innings if horrendous.  Should he continue to make mistakes, this Padres lineup should be able to smack him around and put up a healthy amount of runs.  I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits in this one.  Both sides have some pros and cons.  Righties have a much higher ISO vs. Barrie while lefties have a much higher wOBA. 

The 3 premier plays in this lineup are Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, and Juan Soto.  Each of them warrants a spot in your MLB DFS lineups.  All 3 have homer potential every single AB and should do well in this matchup.  After those 3, I’m going to look to prioritize getting Ha-seong Kim and Trent Grisham into my lineups. 

The 2 of them have actually been the hotter hitters in this lineup of late.  Over the past week, the 2 of them each have an OPS of at least 1.000.  Kim is 7 for his last 21 with 2 homers and a 95% contact rate.  If he cracks the lineup tonight, he’s a solid play for us.  After the 5 guys I’ve already mentioned, Jake Cronenworth and Gary Sanchez would also make solid plays

Baltimore Orioles vs. Domingo German

Up until his perfect game against the hapless Oakland Athletics, German had been pitching poorly.  There had actually been talk about DFA’ing him.  Even with the perfect game, German still has a 5.67 ERA over the last month and a 4.26 xFIP.  The perfect game was pure luck and he’s going to come right back down to earth against the Baltimore Orioles. 

The Orioles haven’t been hitting the cover off the ball of late like they were earlier in the year, but they still make for a great play vs. a bad pitcher.  They have one of the top young lineups in the league and every night out they have the potential to put up a very crooked number.  Tonight is no different.

The main bats I’m interested in here are going to be Cedric Mullins, Gunnar Henderson, and Adley Rutschman.  All 3 of them will have the platoon advantage and are quite frankly, the most talented hitters in this lineup.  Henderson, after struggling through the first year of his MLB career has really come alive over the last month or so.  He has a ton of potential in this matchup. 

I’m also very interested in Anthony Santander.  He’s been one of the teams’ most consistent hitters since the start of the 2022 season.  He’s one of their MVP’s and should always be considered in their stack.  Other bats to look at here are Ramon Urias and Aaron Hicks.

I didn’t mention them, but Atlanta is very much in play.  They are essentially a team that is in play every single night, regardless of who they are facing.  Every hitter in their lineup has home run potential every single AB. 

MLB DFS Summary

We have ourselves a small slate tonight.  We have a couple of good options on the mound and bats should be plentiful. 

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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It’s finally Saturday! As always, we have a full day of games, first one starts at 1:40 ET and we conclude with Diamondbacks/Angels at 10:07. I went to bed with some awful sickness last night, so I’m going to keep this one short, and sweet. Let’s roll!

MLB DFS Aces

Dylan Cease vs Oakland Athletics

We will continue to pick on the A’s until they start caring about winning baseball games. Fortunately, that day isn’t coming any time soon. Cease has had a rollercoaster of a season, but he is still striking batters out at an elite rate.

Over his last five starts, he has allowed no more than 2 ER and has struck out 9+ in three of them. The victims? Dodgers, Angels, and Rangers. This guy is as locked in as any pitcher in the game, and he is in a fantastic spot again against an Oakland team that continues to rank near the bottom of every offensive category (aside from the zillion steals by Esteury Ruiz).

He is my favorite arm of the day, and I’m sure I’m not alone in that. Cease time!

Tyler Glasnow vs Seattle Mariners

This one is a combination of excitement that Glasnow finally put together a dominant showing last time out (5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 12 K), and a play against a struggling Mariners offense. I’m not expecting the numbers that Glasnow put up against the Royals last time out, but this is still a great spot.

The Mariners have a team K rate north of 27% over the last 14 days and are quickly falling out of contention at the midway point this season. The Rays are still sitting pretty, and Glasnow will be key to any deep run they want to make this season.

With George Kirby on the other side of this one, the total is set at just 7.5, and I’m not opposed to the F5 under here as well.

Eury Perez vs Atlanta Braves

Here is my bold call of the day. Wind and humidity have only added to the risk for pitchers facing the best lineup in baseball, but Perez has been absolutely electric lately. Over his last three starts, he has thrown 18 shutout innings with a 24/2 K/BB. Five of his last six outings have been scoreless, and the one that wasn’t? He gave up a single run to the White Sox on a solo shot.

While it would be pure magic for him to shut out this lineup, I think he can be a nice GPP pivot on Saturday. He has a 54/15 K/BB, 1.34 ERA, and 0.98 WHIP across 47 innings. This kid is off to a phenomenal start to his career, and he could be a money maker Saturday.

The risk is clear, but the payoff may be worth the squeeze.

MLB DFS Stacks

Chicago White Sox vs Kyle Muller

Nearly boasting a WHIP of 2 (1.94) across 47 innings of work with just a 33/22 K/BB and 9 HR allowed, it is safe to say that Kyle Muller isn’t having much success. The White Sox have been a major disappointment this season, but there are still some guys swinging the lumber.

Luis Robert has been the hottest hitter not named Ohtani in the league over the last month, Eloy Jimenez is (fingers crossed) finally healthy, Andrew Benintendi has been setting the table quite nicely, and Andrew Vaughn is seeing the ball well. If Jake Burger is in the lineup, I’ll give him a look as well for his power.

Muller has allowed 42 ER in 47 innings. This is unlikely to end well for him.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Luis Severino

I’m going a bit off the wall here are targeting Severino with a struggling offense. He looked solid his last time out against Texas, but prior to that, he gave up 19 ER in 18.2 IP across four starts. The Cardinals are a dumpster fire, but they still have elite hitting littered across their lineup, and I’m shooting my shot here.

Paul Goldschmidt never ages, Nolan Arenado is still crushing the ball, and Jordan Walker has been quietly elite in his rookie season. You can look toward Brendan Donovan also, as he has been seeing the ball well of late, and one day Willson Contreras will be hitting the ball again, right? RIGHT?

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Daniel Lynch

Led by Mookie Betts, the Dodgers have been on fire of late. Tonight they draw a matchup against Lynch, who is actually coming off of consecutive solid outings. He just finished a 6 inning day against the Rays where he allowed just one ER on a solo homer. What he didn’t do, and doesn’t do well is miss bats. He has 7 strikeouts over his last 20 innings of work.

If you aren’t missing bats, you likely aren’t finding much success against a stacked lineup like LA. I’m all aboard here starting with Mookie Betts, then Freddie Freeman, JD Martinez, and Will Smith. James Outman, Jason Heyward, or David Peralta are fine fillers down at the bottom of the order as well. I’m not a believer in Lynch.

MLB DFS Summary

There is a Coors game, and I don’t blame you for going there, but I like some other spots! Let’s find ourselves a GPP win behind our guy Eury Perez, what do you say?

Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!

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Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

It’s Friday and that means we have a full slate of evening games.  MLB has blessed us with a 12-game slate of MLB DFS tonight.  At first glance though, pitching is extremely underwhelming on this late.  It lacks a clear ace and even the mid-level arms have clear risk.  This slate does however present us with a decent amount of stacking options. 

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Osvaldo Bido vs. Milwaukee Brewers

If you just watched the Mets/Brewers series 2 things should be clear.  The Mets are bad and have little heart.  They’ll play out the string the rest of the year and will probably lose 90 games.  The other thing that is clear is that the Brewers offense is also very bad and we can attack them with pitchers often.  I plan on doing that tonight with Osvaldo Bido.  Bido so far in his young has shown some strikeout upside. 

And what is king in MLB DFS?  Strikeouts.  Through his first 3 starts, Bido has struck 18 hitters.  He’s had at least 5 k’s in each start.  With a matchup against a team in the Brewers that is striking out more than 25% against righties, I don’t see any reason to think that Bido can’t get us at least another 5 strikeouts and at least 15-20 DK points.

Bobby Miller vs. Kansas City Royals

The young Bobby Miller is coming off 2 extremely poor starts.  In those starts, Miller gave up a combined 13 ER.  Not ideal for someone that we’re targeting.  That said, I really like this spot as a bounce-back spot for Miller tonight.  The Royals aren’t a good team.  If we look at what they’ve done vs. righties this season, it’s been pretty bad.  They have a 24.5% K rate vs. righties and an OPS below .670.  They also have a sub .300 wOBA. 

All 3 numbers scream struggles and because of that, I really do believe that Miller bounces back tonight and puts up a similar outing to the 4 previous outings before the 2 blow-up games.  In those outings, he had over 20 DK points each.  Look for him to get back on the right side of the ship and have a dominant outing vs. a bad team. 

Other pitchers I like today will be James Paxton vs. Toronto (risky though), Bryan Hoenig vs. Atlanta (also risky), and Shane McClanahan vs. Seattle. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Matthew Liberatore

The St. Louis Cardinals have been one of the more disappointing teams in all of baseball this season.  Midway through the season, the Cardinals are 14 games under .500.  Things won’t get any easier tonight as they’ll throw out Matthew Liberatore vs. the Yankees.  Liberatore has pitched very poorly this season.  Over the past month, he’s allowed a 6.06 ERA.  That number actually matches his xFIP so he’s performing as expected. 

Magically, Liberatore has only allowed 2 homers in his last 16 innings of work.  This is all despite having a 40% flyball rate and a 40% hard-hit rate.  At some point, the ball will be flying out of the park more against him.  We’ll want to focus on the righties in this matchup. Righties have a nearly .400 wOBA vs. Liberatore this season.

The first 3 bats I’m going to be focused on here will be Giancarlo Stanton, Harrison Bader, and Josh Donaldson.  After a sit down with manager Aaron Boone, Donaldson’s bat is coming alive.  Over his last 3 games, Donaldson has 2 homers and a double.  He’s also driven in 5 runs.  Donaldson has a long history of battering southpaws and he faces a bad one tonight. 

Stanton has been a huge disappointment this season, but his bat too is starting to come around.  He has hits in 3 of his last 4 games and has extra-base hits in back-to-back games.  Other bats I’ll want to include in this stack are going to be DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Rizzo.  The Cardinals got destroyed last night and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen again tonight.

San Francisco Giants vs. Cookie Carrasco

I hope I’m wrong here but the Giants have a great opportunity tonight to put up a lot of runs.  The Mets will turn the ball over to Carlos Carrasco tonight.  This season has been a huge struggle for him.  Over the last month, Cookie has allowed an ERA of 5.56.  He’s also allowed 6 homers over the 22 innings worked in June.  He’s been struggling, the Mets have been struggling, and the Mets bullpen has been struggling. 

It all adds up to the Giants having a monster night tonight at Citi Field.  Righties have actually been the downfall for Cookie this season as they have a .422 wOBA vs. him and a .308 ISO.  Both numbers are much higher than lefties have against him.

Knowing that I’ll start my Giants stack with Thairo Estrada, J.D. Davis, and Austin Slater.  All 3 of these guys have been extremely competent vs. righties this season, with Slater being the best.  Slater has a .419 wOBA vs. righties this season and he’ll be a priority for me in this stack.  Just because we like the righties here doesn’t mean we ignore the lefties. 

I’m also very interested in guys like LaMonte Wade in the leadoff spot, Joc Pederson, and Blake Sobel.  Pederson has done a nice job cutting down on strikeouts vs. righties this season and also has a .238 ISO vs. them.  This is a great spot for him tonight and his teammates. 

Other bats I like tonight will be the White Sox vs. Luis Medina, Tigers vs. Austin Gomber, and Angels vs. Tommy Henry (Ohtani goes deep, again).

MLB DFS Summary

Tonight’s going to be a tricky slate.  Pitching is very watered down and some of the top stacks have a lot of risk.  I doubt I’ll be straying from the players I mentioned here. 

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Thursday is a deep slate of games for once, with a nice afternoon slate and an evening slate with nothing starting past 8:40 ET! Let’s make some money tonight and end the sweats early for once!

MLB DFS Aces

J.P. France vs St. Louis Cardinals

With Jon Gray being pushed for the weekend, I’ll pivot to France. He has been an under appreciated asset to the Astros this season. He has posted four consecutive quality starts, including impressive outings against the Dodgers and Angels.

Aside from a 6-walk outing against the Guardians, his command has been solid. He owns a 42/18 K/BB over 53.1 innings of work this season.

Don’t expect a big strikeout number, but he should be in good shape for the win and a quality start with the Astros’ lineup behind him facing the corpse of Adam Wainwright (more on that below).

Brayan Bello vs Miami Marlins

Bello has been impressive this season, and the Red Sox have needed every bit of it. He owns a 3.27 ERA and 1.27 WHIP across 66 innings of work with a 62/21 K/BB. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a home start since April 17th, and the Marlins aren’t scaring anyone.

The debate is somehow raging on about Luis Arraez not getting enough love for MVP, but we all know that’s nonsense. Jorge Soler is the hitter that pitchers fear in this lineup, and that’s about it. Jazz Chisholm is back, so there are more strikeouts to have for Bello and company, although we do know he has some power. Bello has served up just 7 HR on the season, so I’m not overly concerned there.

The total here is 9.5 with the Sox as a small -120 favorite. I like the balance of floor and a bit of upside here with Bello. Jesus Luzardo doesn’t look too bad on the opposite side either, but he’s a much deeper play for me.

Taijuan Walker vs Chicago Cubs

Walker got off to a rocky start to his 2023 campaign, but has been fantastic of late. Over his last four starts (26 IP), he has allowed just two earned runs with a 26/6 K/BB. He takes on a Cubs team that is great at getting on base, but not great at finishing the job.

Walker faced the windy city foes on May 21st and was solid, giving up just two hits over 5.1 scoreless innings. On a night slate that doesn’t have many options to feel good about, Walker stands out as a solid option.

MLB DFS Stacks

Houston Astros vs Adam Wainwright

We are approaching an “Old Yeller” situation with Adam Wainwright. The Cardinals clearly love the guy, but he quite simply is a liability at this point. He has given up at least 8 hits in six consecutive starts, and owns a 16/9 K/BB over that span.

He isn’t missing bats anymore, and that’s a recipe for disaster against a potent Astros lineup. His fellow Cardinal Miles Mikolas learned that the hard way last night. The ‘Stros are in a great spot here. The red-hot Jose Abreu, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman, and Yainer Diaz are all in great spots here. Grab any pieces you want in the contact party tonight. It may just be another shootout like last night.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Yonny Chirinos

Yonny Chirinos is a guy who can eat innings, but he fools absolutely noone while doing so. He has just a 23/16 K/BB over 48.1 innings of work, and has a tough one ahead of him here. Arizona is 5th in runs scores, 4th in hits, 3rd in BA, 5th in OPS, 7th in SLG…the list goes on and on.

Ketel Marte has been raking, Corbin Carroll has been quiet but is in a good spot, Christian Walker continues to hit bombs, and that isn’t even all of it. Lourdes Gurriel is a statcast darling, Alek Thomas can help your wraparound stack. I love the D-Backs here.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chase Anderson

The Dodgers are still in Coors, you say? I’ll keep this one simple for you here. Chase Anderson against one of the best lineups in baseball in Coors? A match made in heaven.

Mookie Betts, Will Smith, JD Martinez, Freddie Freeman, you know what to do here. Anderson has given up 16 ER in his last 5.2 innings of work. Yes, SIXTEEN. There is no overthinking this one. You want Dodgers, and you want a lot of them.

It seems evident that the Rockies will give him some leash, as they have left him out to die the last two starts. If you can’t fit Dodgers in your lineup, you’re finding a way.

MLB DFS Summary

Dodgers, Dodgers, Dodgers! I’ll be mixing in some value plays, but my priority will be Coors. The Rockies don’t look bad against the rookie Sheehan either. Happy Thursday!

Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!

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Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

After MLB blessed us with a massive 15-game slate of MLB DFS last night, we’re right back at it with another huge slate as we have 13 games to work with tonight.  Anytime there’s this many games, we’ll have plenty of options to pick from with our pitching and stacking.  With it being such a big slate, the first thing we’ll want to do is eliminate as much junk as we can.  And there’s plenty of junk on this slate to get rid of. 

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Kodai Senga vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The New York Mets’ starters so far have left the Brewers scoreless through the first 2 games of this series.  Justin Verlander did it on Monday and then David Petersen did it last night.  The only reason the Mets haven’t won both games is thanks to a 2-run bomb that Drew Smith gave up after Verlander exited thanks to throwing a million pitches through the first 5 innings. 

Tonight, the Mets will turn the ball over to Senga and he stands a really solid chance of limiting damage also tonight.  The only thing that has really held Senga back in his first season in the Majors is his propensity to give out free passes to hitters.  If he can command his pitches tonight and get the ball over the plate, the Mets should be able to win their second game of this 4-game series.  This Brewers lineup is bad and the Mets starters have exploited that.  They’ll do it again tonight.

Blake Snell vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

This is the Blake Snell the Padres were hoping for when they traded for him back in 2020.  He’s been brilliant over the last month.  Over his last 31 innings of work, Snell has struck out more than 44% of the batters he’s faced, he’s pitched to a .29 ERA (his xFIP is 1.82), and has allowed a WHIP of .71.  He’s finally pitching like the ace everyone thought he would eventually turn into. 

Do I expect him to continue at this pace for much longer?  I don’t know, but I’m going to take advantage of it until the flame burns out.  With a matchup against the Pirates today, I don’t think that happens just yet.  The Pirates have improved this season, but a lot of that improvement we saw earlier this season has somewhat washed away.  Look for Snell to continue with his dominance tonight. 

Other pitchers I like today will be Aaron Nola vs. Chicago, Logan Allen vs. KC, and Braxton Garrett vs. Boston. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Baltimore Orioles vs. Luke Weaver

Oh do the Orioles get a sweet matchup today vs. Luke Weaver.  Weaver has been atrocious over the last month.  Over his last 5 outings, he’s given up 23 ER.  10 of those ER have come in his last 2 outings.  Having to face a lineup as deep as the Orioles today is going to be a huge test for the Reds’ right-hander.  There is little that Weaver has done well over the last month. 

His WHIP is pushing 2, his contact rate is nearly 88%, and he has a minuscule chase rate of just 23%.  The Orioles should have a field day against him on the first day without rain in what seems like forever.  With Weaver, I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits.  He’s bad against both sides of the plate.  Like really bad. 

While I’m going to lay out my preferred bats here, the entire lineup tonight will be in play.  My priority bats here are going to be Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson, and Ryan O’Hearn.  All three of these guys have crushed righties this season and should be able to get to Weaver tonight.  Santander has been swinging the hottest stick of all as he has 8 hits in his last 25 AB.  3 of those hits have left the ballpark. 

After those 3, I’ll also look to get in Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, and Austin Hays.  I will add though that Rutschman is in a bit of a funk right now.  That said, there’s no better slump-buster than Luke Weaver.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Kyle Freeland

The Dodgers get just a glorious matchup today vs. Kyle Freeland.  Freeland has been really bad over the last month.  His ERA over the last 30 days is 6 and his xFIP is just a shade under there.  He’s someone that gives up exactly what we look for when stacking.  His hard-hit rate against over the last month is 39% and his flyball rate is nearly 40%. 

He’s also given up 12 barrels in his last 27 innings of work.  With how much contact Freeland gives up, he’s going to get destroyed by the Dodgers tonight.  I’m going to give righties a slight edge in this matchup.  Righties have a slightly higher ISO and wOBA vs. Freeland this season and that’s consistent with his career.

Don’t be scared to go to the back of this lineup tonight.  Last night, the Dodgers had 8 hits.  7 of those hits came from 5-9 in the batting order.  They are also going to be considerably cheaper.  That doesn’t mean that guys like Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are bad plays. They are far from it. 

We can just get different here and save some money by going with guys like J.D. Martinez, Miguel Vargas, and Miguel Rojas.  They are riskier than guys at the top of the order, but they’ll be lower-owned in a phenomenal matchup.  That said, guys like Betts and Will Smith are going to be great plays in this matchup.  All Dodgers are in play tonight.

Other bats I like tonight will be Oakland vs. Domingo German, Tampa vs. Zach Davies, and Texas vs. Joey Wentz

MLB DFS Summary

Unfortunately, tonight’s still a Coors night and fading the Dodgers against Freeland is going to be tough.  There are still though a bunch of teams in really great spots tonight.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

It’s Monday Funday!  And that means we have a smaller than slate of MLB DFS.  Tonight we’ll have 6 games to work with, 2 of which have the potential for some really nasty storms.  This slate brings us a little bit of everything.  Solid pitching, disappointing pitchers, and some solid bats in line to have monster nights. 

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Dylan Cease vs. Los Angeles Angels

Dylan Cease appears to have re-found his mojo.  Over the last month, Cease has been the Cease we’ve come to love.  A pitcher that strikes out batters at an excessive amount.  Over his last 26 innings of work, Cease has a massive 36% K rate.  That’s higher than any pitcher, including Spencer Strider, on this slate.  And do you want to know what makes it even better?  Cease is just $7.7k tonight. 

So we’re getting a pitcher that has racked up 44 strikeouts over his last 5 outings for a bargain bin price.  Now don’t get me wrong, he’s far from safe.  The Angels are a very good lineup.  They just put up a 25 spot the other night.  That said, I really like the form that Cease is in right now and he’s been an ace-caliber pitcher in the past.  I’m locking him in as a value starter tonight.

Justin Verlander vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The version of Justin Verlander that the Mets have received so far has not been a good one.  For the most part, this season has been a struggle for last year’s AL Cy Young award winner.  Even though it’s been a struggle, I do like the spot for him tonight.  The Brewers have been an extremely inconsistent lineup this season.  They can put up runs with the best of them, but they can also strike out with the worst of them. 

Against righties this season, the Brewers have a 25% K rate and an OPS of just .684.  As I said, this is a good spot for Verlander to dial it back and have one of his vintage outings.  We also have some trends with Verlander.  Every other outing for Verlander this season has been over 20 DK points.  In his last outing, he scored just 12.  You know what that means.  He’s getting us over 20 DK points at just $8.3k. 

Other pitchers I like today will be Spencer Strider vs. Minnesota and Luis Castillo vs. Washington (concerned a bit with Washington’s propensity to not strike out). 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Baltimore Orioles vs. Brandon Williamson

Brandon Williamson is arguably the worst pitcher throwing tonight.  Over the last month, he has by far the worst xFIP and ERA of any pitcher on the mount.  In his last 26 innings of work, he’s allowed 6 homers and 12 barrels.  All of this damage has led to him having an ERA over 6.00 over that stretch.  The only thing keeping him afloat right now is that he’s had some good command. 

He’s allowed just 2.36 BB/9, which has led to an ok WHIP of 1.46.  With Williamson, we want to focus mostly on the right-handed hitters in this lineup.  Righties have a .293 ISO and a .372 wOBA against him this season.  He’s allowed a 36% flyball rate and a nearly 57% hard-hit rate vs. them.  Let’s load up on some righties for the Orioles. 

I’m going to load up on the first 3 hitters in this lineup.  Austin Hays, Adley Rutchsman, and Anthony Santander all have great numbers this season vs. lefties.  Santander is the key here.  His numbers against lefties this season are far and away the best on the team.  Through 79 plate appearances, Santander has a .409 wOBA and a.238 ISO.  He’s also coming into this one swinging the hottest stick in this lineup.  Over the last week, Santander has 4 homers and a 1.333 OPS. 

Other bats we’ll want to include will be Aaron Hicks (yes, that Aaron Hicks), Jorge Mateo, and Ramon Urias.  If this game plays without a hitch, the Orioles should be able to put up a big number.

Texas Rangers vs. Matthew Boyd

The advanced metrics say that Matthew Boyd shouldn’t be this bad.  His xFIP is sitting at just 3.21 over the last month.  That’s more than 2 runs lower than his actual ERA over the same period.  He’s not giving up too many flyballs and he’s not letting a whole lot of runners on.  His issue has been once those runners get on, they score.  He has a slate worse 59% LOB %.  So once he’s letters runners on, more than 40% of them score. 

While a little unlucky, you’re just not going to have much success if you can’t limit the damage and he hasn’t been able to limit the damage.  To make matters worse for Boyd, he’s facing off against a team in the Rangers tonight that is one of the best in the league against southpaws.  It’s going to be a huge struggle for him. 

I’m going to prioritize getting guys like Josh Jung, Adolis Garcia, and Jonah Heim into my lineups today.  Josh Jung has been making a huge case for Rookie of the Year this season with his stellar play, even though he’s quieted down a smidge.  Against lefties this season, Jung has a .444 wOBA and a .324 ISO.  His numbers against them are extremely impressive. 

Another play that I want to make sure I get into my lineups will be Ezequiel Duran.  He’s hot at the plate right now and has also been stellar vs. lefties.  Over his last 24 AB, he has 8 hits and an OPS of .958.  Both Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are in play tonight, I’m just not going to force them in.

Other bats I like tonight will be Cincy vs. Cole Irvin, Mets vs. Colin Rea, and Mariners vs. Trevor Williams.  Braves as always, are in play.

MLB DFS Summary

The story of the night will be the weather.  There are a few games where weather may cause us to go in a different route.  We’ll want to keep an eye on Baltimore and New York.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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We have a packed slate of games all day on Saturday, starting with the London Series between the Cardinals and Cubs. That game has a massive total of 13.5, so have fun with some SGP and single-game DFS action. First main slate of games starts at 4:05 ET. Let’s get to it!

MLB DFS Aces

Merrill Kelly vs San Fransisco Giants

Kelly has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. Across 90 innings of work, he has posted a 2.90 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 96/35 K/BB. He now takes on a Giants team that has been performing above their talent level…and in a pitcher’s park.

Kelly has allowed 3 ER or less in seven consecutive starts, and nine of his last ten. The Giants rank in the top 10 in some offensive categories, but they do a lot of their damage via the longball (they have 95 on the season, 9th most in MLB). Kelly has allowed just 9 HR in 90 innings this year, good for less than 1 HR/9. He is a safe bet here with a decent bit of upside.

Jose Berrios vs Oakland Athletics

Jose Berrios got rocked in his last start, serving up 5 ER on 8 hits across just four innings against the Marlins. He draws a much more favorable matchup here against the worst offense in baseball. The Jays are massive -280 favorites here, and Berrios should be able to get back on track.

Prior to his disaster last time out, Berrios had allowed 0, 2, 1, 0, and 1 ER over his last five starts with a combined 23/13 K/BB. He doesn’t possess a very high ceiling (79 K in 89 IP), but should be able to pitch deep here if his command is in check.

James Paxton vs Chicago White Sox

Remember the days of James Paxton being an ace? Well, he has certainly looked the part again thus far in 2023 since his return. He has been electric of late, striking out 32 batters and walking just 5 over his last four starts. During that span, he has allowed just 6 ER in 23.1 innings of work.

The White Sox have some power bats that can take advantage of Paxton’s longball issues, but if he continues to command the zone as he has, a solo shot or two won’t hurt him too badly. The Red Sox are small -120 favorites on the road in this one.

MLB DFS Stacks

Seattle Mariners vs Dean Kremer

Dean Kremer is one of the worst pitchers in baseball who continues to get regular work. His numbers aren’t terrible (4.56 ERA, 1.41 WHIP), but he has given up 14 HR in 81 innings of work, and now faces a red-hot offense. His statcast metrics suggest that he is much, much worse than these numbers.

I’m banking on the Mariners putting up big numbers in this one. Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, Teoscar Hernandez, Jarred Kelenic, and Cal Raleigh are my main targets here.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Jordan Lyles

This is a match made in heaven if you’re the Tampa Bay Rays. The actual worst starter in the majors faces the team that can’t stop hitting home runs. What could go wrong? Lyles is now 0-11 with a 6.72 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and just a 62/29 K/BB over 85.2 innings. Did I mention he has given up 18 HR? Let’s go ahead and assume that number will be 20+ by the end of Saturday.

Jose Siri has been on fire, Randy Arozarena does it all, Manuel Margot is finding his swing, Josh Lowe and Issac Paredes are always threats. Take your pick here, I’d be stunned if Lyles keeps this one close.

COORS FIELD

We only saw 11 runs scored last night between these two teams, but Saturday night is set up for some fireworks. Neither Griffin Canning or Chase Anderson are in a good spot here. The total is a huge 12.5. Anderson has given up 7 HR in his last four starts, and Canning has served up 6 over his last four.

I can’t just name them all, but you know what to do here.

Ohtani, Trout, Drury, Renfroe, Elias Diaz, Nolan Jones, Ryan McMahon, Randall Grichuk. Anyone with an ounce of pop should be on your radar here.

MLB DFS Summary

The London game looks like fun to kick things off, and we end with what looks like a massive shootout in Coors Field. Happy Saturday to everyone!

Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!

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Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

It’s full-slate Friday!  Tonight we have a 10-game slate of MLB DFS.  This slate brings us back to Coors, but there will also be other areas for offense.  We have solid pitchers in great spots also that we’ll want to take full advantage of. The biggest thing with this slate will be weather though. Many games are at risk of delay/ppd.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Chris Bassitt vs. Oakland Athletics

Chris Bassitt is coming off 2 starts that he probably wants to forget.  He did however face 2 of the better lineups in all of baseball in Texas and Baltimore.  Tonight, he’ll face a much inferior lineup in the Oakland Athletics.  The Athletics have been brutal vs. righties this season.  They have a 26% k rate and an OPS of just .640. 

This sets up for Bassitt to have a nice rebound performance.  We’ve seen him dial it up to get upwards of 41 DK points this season.  This matchup speaks for itself and we should see more of a ceiling game for Bassitt than a floor game. 

Brayan Bello vs. Chicago White Sox

To save a little bit of money on pitching today, I’m going to drop down to Brayan Bello.  Bello is coming off his best start of the season.  Against the Yankees, Bello struck out 8 across 7 innings and allowed just 1 ER.  It added up to a 29 DK-point outing for the young right-hander. 

The matchup today vs. the White Sox brings Bello a very similar upside.  The White Sox are not built to succeed vs. righties. They have a modest k rate of 23%, but they also have just a .670 OPS and a .290 wOBA.  Bellow should be able to navigate pretty easily through this lineup tonight. 

Other pitchers I like tonight will be Kodai Senga vs. Philly, Taijuan Walker vs. New York, and Kyle Gibson vs. Seattle. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Los Angeles Angels vs. Kyle Freeland

If you’ve followed me, you know I try my hardest to avoid recommending Coors stacks.  Not because they aren’t good plays, but more so to provide you with other options.  I just can’t avoid this matchup tonight.  The Angels are really solid vs. lefties and today they’ll face one of the worst in the game.  Kyle Freeland has been really bad over the last month. 

Over the last month, Freeland has a 5.67 ERA and has allowed a nearly 36% flyball rate.  He’s attackable every single outing and this is one of the more attackable spots against him all year.  We want the righties here.  Righties have significantly better numbers vs. Freeland this season

I’m going to get to the obvious first.  Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are in play.  They are always in play.  They are 2 of the best hitters in the game.  Their prices however tonight are extremely restrictive.  Ohtani is $6.7k and Trout is $6.5k.  just insane. 

The 2 guys I really like here outside of Trout and Ohtani are Brandon Drury and Hunter Renfroe.  While neither guy has really crushed lefties this season, both historically have.  This is an elite matchup for both of them.  After those 2, I’ll look to add Chad Wallace, Taylor Ward, and Luis Rengifo.  This entire lineup today is in play.

San Diego Padres vs. Patrick Corbin

For a while there, it looked like Patrick Corbin was starting to pitch with some competence.  Those days are long gone!  Over the last month, Corbin has been back to being the old Corbin.  His ERA is pushing 6 and he’s back to giving up what we love to see, hard contact.  His hard-hit rate over the last month is a massive 42%. 

Corbin’s walks are also up, which has led to a WHIP of nearly 2.00.  If the Padres show some patience tonight, they’ll put up a massive number.  I’m going to prioritize righties here.  Corbin’s numbers are way worse against them. 

My 2 favorite bats here are going to Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis.  Both guys have absolutely crushed lefties this season.  Machado has a .422 wOBA and Tatis has a .488.  With Tatis, he’s shown some real power vs. them as well with a .420 ISO.  If I had to pick between the 2 of them, I’d go Machado due to price. 

Machado is significantly lower tonight and that extra cash will go a long way.  Another bat that I’ll prioritize here will be Gary Sanchez.  He’s been a stud vs. lefties this season, with a .429 ISO and a .385 wOBA.  Other bats to get here will be Ha-Seong Kim and Xander Bogaerts. 

Other stacks I like today are Toronto vs. James Kaprielian and Texas vs. Luis Severino. 

MLB DFS Summary

We’ll want to keep an eye on the weather tonight.  There are a ton of games at risk of t-storms.  That said, the stacks/pitchers I laid out are weather-risk-free. 

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Eight games on tap for Thursday, with four beginning just after 1:05 ET, followed by a random 3:45 game, then the nightcap is three games starting at 6:40 ET. There are a few nice spots to target Thursday, so let’s get right to it!

MLB DFS Aces

Shane McClanahan vs Kansas City Royals

The Royals offense is hot garbage. They rank 29th in runs scored, 23rd in hits, 29th in OBP, 28th in OPS, and 26th in HR. McClanahan and the Rays are listed as ridiculous -360 favorites in this one, and it’s hard to argue with it. The Rays are more than 30 games ahead of Kansas City (yes, THIRTY), and McClanahan is in a tremendous spot.

He has given up 1 or fewer ER in four of his last six starts while compiling a 36/9 K/BB. He is striking out more than a batter per inning (97 in 89.1 IP), and has an elite WHIP of just 1.10. He will be very high owned on the late slate, but I don’t see much reason to fade him. This is one of the largest favorites we have seen this season, and there is very little downside in this matchup.

Joe Ryan vs Boston Red Sox

Joe Ryan is one of the best pitchers to not get the respect he deserves. His numbers this season are nothing short of elite.

84.2 IP

3.30 ERA

0.97 WHIP

91/15 K/BB

This isn’t an easy matchup by any means, as Boston ranks near the top of MLB in AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. That said, great pitching outweighs great hitting more often than not. Ryan is actually coming off his worst start of the season, as he gave up 6 ER to the lowly Detroit Tigers. His command was still excellent, posting a 7/0 K/BB. This isn’t an ideal spot for a pitcher, but I’m taking Ryan here rather than Aaron Nola against the Braves’ powerful lineup.

Logan Allen vs Oakland Athletics

Looking at the early games, Allen jumps out at me. The main draw here is the matchup (Oakland is the worst offense in baseball). Allen has actually struggled quite a bit over his last two starts, serving up 10 ER to the Padres and Astros. However, he hadn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his previous 8 starts this season.

Oakland’s offense is scaring nobody but their fans, and Allen has flashed some upside as well. He has three starts with at least 8 K in 2023, and Vegas is on board with him again today as a -175 favorite against JP Sears (who hasn’t been too bad himself).

MLB DFS Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola is still a very good pitcher, but this isn’t the arm we are accustomed to. He has allowed 4 ER or more in four of his last five starts, and now faces the toughest lineup in MLB. The Braves took Nola deep three times in their last meeting, and hung five ER on him in six innings of work.

I’m going back to the well here. Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, and Marcell Ozuna have all had a lot of success against Nola (including 3+ HR each). That’s where I’m starting my stack. Ozzie Albies has been heating up, and Michael Harris II is batting over .500 for the last week. This team is absolutely on fire offensively, and there isn’t a pitcher on the planet I’m taking in this matchup right now.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Jose Cuas (and company)

In what will be a bullpen game for Kansas City, we will see Cuas, likely followed by Austin Cox and Brooks Kriske on Thursday. Regardless of which arm is on the mound, the Rays are in a great spot. Arguably the best lineup in baseball, I’m banking on the Rays to put up some big numbers here.

Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, and the power-hitting Isaac Paredes top my list here, but I’m OK with rostering just about anyone in this lineup. It’s likely that this one turns quickly for Kansas City.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Jake Irvin

The Diamondbacks are one of the most fun young teams in MLB (well below my Cincinnati Reds…winners of 11 straight!). Irvin hasn’t necessarily been bad, but he doesn’t miss bats and his control has been poor. Across 36 innings of work, he has a 27/22 K/BB and has served up 21 ER.

Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, and Ketel Marte stand atop my list of bats to target Irvin with. We will be rolling as soon as we see Irvin get wild then Walker parks one in the cheap seats. All aboard the D-Backs train!

MLB DFS Summary

We have a nice fun split slate on Thursday, let’s ride some hot bats to the top of the leaderboards!

Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!

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Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

It’s Wednesday and that brings us a split slate of baseball.  This article will be focused on the 7-game slate of MLB DFS that is starting at 12:10 EST.  This slate brings us some exciting teams in the Reds, Orioles, and Rays and also brings us some bottom feeders in the Rockies, Royals and Detroit.  There will be plenty of options on both the pitching front and stacking front. 

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Zac Gallen vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers are solidifying a spot on the “Use Pitchers Against” list.  They continuously strike out a ton and have one of the most inconsistent lineups in the game.  Ryne Nelson, a much inferior starter to Gallen, was able to strikeout 6 Brewers over 5 innings of work.  This sets up for Zac Gallen to have one of his vintage outings, an outing just like the one that he’s coming off against the Guardians. 

Zac Gallen struck out 7 in that one and there’s little reason to think he can’t replicate that number or even increase upon it against a team that is striking out nearly 25% of the time against righties this season.  Gallen is my SP1 on this slate.

Andrew Abbott vs. Colorado Rockies

This pick comes with a smidge of risk.  So far through 3 starts, Andrew Abbott is sporting a 0 ERA and has been over 17 DK points in all 3.  He comes into this matchup today against the Rockies facing a team that for all intents and purposes has been awful against lefties.  Combined, they have a 26% strikeout rate vs. lefties and a wOBA of .284.   In theory, Abbott should be able to walk right through this lineup. 

There are some warning signs though of regression for Abbott.  He’s giving up a ton of flyballs, a ton of hard hits, and few strikeouts.  His xFIP is a full 5 runs higher than his 0 ERA.  There’s going to be some negative regression coming his way, I just don’t think it will be today vs. a team that struggles vs. lefties. 

Other pitchers I like this afternoon are Brady Singer vs. Detroit and Julio Teheran vs. Arizona. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Cincinnati Reds vs. Connor Seabold

The surging first-place Cincinnati Reds won their tenth straight game last night and now hold a .5 game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers.  Yes, you read that right.  The Cincinnati Reds are in first place and there is no sign of them slowing down.  Today they’ll get a cake matchup vs. Connor Seabold. 

Over the last month, Seabold has pitched to a 5.76 ERA which is right in line with this 5.63 xFIP.  We’re getting what we expect to be getting from the Rockies’ righthander.  With Seabold, we won’t need to be overly concerned with splits.  He’s been pretty bad vs. both sides of the play, with the righties having a slightly higher wOBA than the lefties.

I want to preface this by saying that the entire Reds lineup will be in play today.  They scored 8 yesterday and I’m sure they’ll put up another crooked number today.  Seabold has been bad and the Reds lineup has been dynamic.  It sets up for another high-scoring day for the Big Red Machine.  That said, I’m going to prioritize getting in Elly De La Cruz, TJ Friedl, and Jake Fraley. 

All have excellent numbers vs. righties this season.  Both De La Cruz and Fraley have ISO’s over .200 against righties.  De La Cruz so far has shown way more competence as a left-handed hitter so he’s an absolute lock for me today.  Other bats that are higher up on the priority list for me will be Joey Votto and Will Benson.  Again though, everyone is in play. 

Houston Astros vs. Tylor Megill

When the Mets let guys like Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, and Seth Lugo go, it was with the notion that Tylor Megill would be able to step into the number 5 starter spot and do well.  That hasn’t happened.  It’s actually been the opposite.  Over his last 5 starts, Megill has allowed 4 runs or more in the 3 of them.  Over the last month, he has a slate-worse 6.75 ERA. 

The thing that has killed him the most has been his control.  He has a 4.76 BB/9 over his last 22 innings of work which has led to a 1.99 WHIP.  You can’t be successful giving up that many passes and having a WHIP close to 2 screams bad.  Megill has similar numbers to both sides of the plate so I won’t be overly concerned with splits.

I’ll start by saying this lineup has been extremely inconsistent.  They scored 4 last night, but just 1 the night before.  Even without Yordan Alvarez though, this lineup has some upside, even if they aren’t a sure thing.  I’m going to look to get guys like Kyle Tucker, Yainer Diaz, and Jose Altuve into my lineups.  Diaz has actually been the hottest hitter in this lineup over the last week.  Over his last 26 AB, he has 9 hits and 3 homers.  He’s also sporting an OPS of 1.077.  That’s the highest on the team over that stretch. 

After those 3, I’ll also look to get in Alex Bregman, Chas McCormick, and Jeremy Pena.  This lineup today has the potential to put up a large number as long as they are patient with Megill. 

Other stacks I like today are Toronto vs. Sandy Alcantera, Kansas City vs. Matthew Boyd, and the New York Mets vs. Christian Javier. 

MLB DFS Summary

This slate is shaping up to be a fun one.  We have the most exciting team in baseball right now in the Reds with a cake matchup on paper.  We also have some pitchers in smash spots like Zac Gallen. 

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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