MLB DFS

With two slates on tap, the day slate beginning at 12:20 boasts seven games, so we will be focusing there. Offense has been wild the last few days, let’s find ourselves some upside on both sides of the diamond for the day slate!

MLB DFS Aces

Pablo Lopez vs Seattle Mariners

There are some very good pitchers in tough spots today, and when we factor in matchups, Lopez is one of the top arms for me. He inexplicably struggled last time out against Oakland, but facing a struggling Mariners lineup should help him right the ship.

On the season, Lopez owns a 4.24 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with a whopping 145 strikeouts in 116.2 innings of work and just 32 free passes. The Mariners have score more than three runs just twice in their last 8 games and are sputtering like the old Honda in your driveway.

Lopez was done in by two longballs in his last outing, but had previously allowed only two total homers over his last seven starts. The Mariners have some firepower, but he looks like a safe bet to reach a QS, despite being a small underdog against George Kirby. (By the way, Kirby is a fantastic play in his own right)

Blake Snell vs Toronto Blue Jays

How can you not love both watching and rostering Snell?The guy is absolutely electric, and now has 139 strikeouts in 103 innings of work. The Padres suck, but that hasn’t been because of Snell. He has allowed zero earned runs in five of his last six and eight of his last 10 starts overall.

During that span, he has double-digit strikeouts in five of seven games. I don’t care who he is facing, I’m all aboard the Snell train for now. It’s hard to argue that he hasn’t been the best pitcher in baseball since late May.

Load him up and don’t look back.

Corbin Burnes vs Philadelphia Phillies

Bryce Harper seems incapable of hitting home runs anymore. All Kyle Schwarber does is hit homers. All Bryson Stott seems to do is hit singles. Trea Turner and JT Realmuto have been inconsistent.

Enter Corbin Burnes. He looked like a former CY Young Winner in his dominant outing against the Reds last time out, striking out 13 over 6 innings of 2-hit ball with just two walks. The Phillies can make him pay if he isn’t finding the strike zone, as they have some patient hitters on their side. That said, I’ll side with Burnes here. I have a feeling that this is the part of the season where he puts it all together again.

MLB DFS Stacks

Chicago White Sox vs Jose Quintana

The White Sox have been a frustrating team to roster, and Eloy Jimenez is hurt AGAIN. That said, Luis Robert should be a staple in any lineups today, as the White Sox take on an aging fly-ball pitcher. His numbers last season were fluky, but he posted plenty of quality outings.

It seems unlikely he will go deep in this one, but regardless, he doesn’t miss many bats, so I’ll be looking for power bats here. In addition to Robert, Jake Burger, Yasmani Grandal, Tim Anderson, and the stuggling Oscar Colas are my top targets. Beware that this team loves to let you down, but the potential is there.

Detroit Tigers vs Zack Greinke

This might not be a sexy pick, but I’m a fan of the young Tigers here against another aging pitcher who pitchers to contact. Spencer Torkelson has been as hot as the sun, Kerry Carpenter is finally seeing some positive regression, and Riley Greene is poised and ready for a big second half. Javy Baez can be a throw-in, or Miggy works fine as well.

I’m not a believer in Greinke at this stage in his career, and I think the Tigers knock him around a bit.

Cincinnati Reds vs Alex Cobb

There aren’t a ton of pitchers we can target easily on this slate, but Cobb fits the bill. His overall numbers are decent, but he allows too many baserunners, and the Reds can make a guy like him pay. Will Benson is scorching, and should be batting higher in the order. Joey Votto and Elly De La Cruz both have crushed the ball (especially Elly last night with possibly the worst batted-ball luck ever), and Christian Encarnacion-Strand is finally up.

Be aware that we could see Votto sit this one out as David Bell rotates through 10 guys for 9 spots. We could see some craziness here, but I’m riding with the Reds today.

MLB DFS Summary

Enjoy some Thursday baseball and let’s cash in!

Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!

There are a few slates today, but I’ll be focusing on the main slate that starts at 7:05 ET. We have 12 games of action, and after a fun day yesterday, we are ready to get back at it! Let’s find ourselves some good spots to exploit!

MLB DFS Aces

Pablo Lopez vs Oakland Athletics

Not only is Lopez coming off of one of the best starts of his career (CG SO with 12 K, 4 H, and 0 BB), but he now faces a very vulnerable lineup in the A’s. Lopez has 9+ strikeouts in four of his last five starts, and we can talk all day about the Oakland lineup being one of the worst in MLB.

Oakland has a team K rate approaching 25% on the season, and the sky is the limit for Pablo here. Coming off some rest from the ASB, he hasn’t pitched since July 5th. He will be well-rested and ready to continue his recent dominance. He is my favorite pitcher on the board, and is quite a bit cheaper than Spencer Strider, especially on DK, where he is $2600 cheaper. Fire him up with confidence tonight!

George Kirby vs Detroit Tigers

My affinity for Kirby is well-documented. He has command that is about as good as any pitcher in MLB. He owns an 89/10 K/BB on the season, and although he isn’t an elite K guy, his efficiency gives him a ceiling as well.

Over his last three starts, he has allowed 2 ER or less in every single one with a 14/4 K/BB. That stretch was brutal too, as he faced Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and Houston. I’m expecting a big performance from him here against a Tigers lineup that has a 24% K rate and a team 86 wRC+ on the season.

He is unlikely to hit a monster strikeout total, but he should easily be able to get through 6 or 7 efficient innings and pay off his salary.

Kyle Gibson vs Miami Marlins

Kyle Gibson seems like he has been around for 100 years, and maybe he has. He is a veteran pitcher who has had his share of struggles this season. He finished the first half of the season with a phenomenal performance against Minnesota (7 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 11K).

Don’t expect that type of performance again, but he is more than capable of crushing his salary, especially on DK where he is just $6K. Miami is not a team that strikes out a lot (21.6% in 2023), but Gibson has the tools to keep them off balance. He is cheap and can help you afford some stacks I’m about to list below.

MLB DFS Stacks

New York Yankees vs Connor Seabold

Seabold has had a rough go of it in 2023, posting a 6.65 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and just a 53/22 K/BB over 70.1 innings of work. Over his last two starts at home, he allowed 12 ER on 12 hits, including 4 HR with just a 7/2 K/BB in 10 innings of work.

Let’s be honest here, the Yankees suck and deserve to be in last place in their division. That said, there is still plenty of upside in this lineup, especially at Coors Field against one of the worst pitchers in MLB.

Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, and Gleyber Torres have all been tearing the cover off the ball recently. We never know what we will get from Anthony Volpe, but I like him here as well. Anthony Rizzo has been in a brutal slump, but I’m all aboard the Yankees train here. After the Stanton HR last night, the bats went silent, but I don’t see that happening here again. Get yourself some Yankees and rake in the cash.

Atlanta Braves vs Lance Lynn

We all know Lynn can rack up strikeouts, but are we convinced that any pitcher on the planet can silence the Braves’ bats? Even if he finds a way to pile up some Ks, this is still the best offense in MLB, and Lynn has a propensity for getting shelled.

I’m banking on Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, Michael Harris II and company to take care of business here, and I’m hoping they will be low owned. Lynn still has a brutal 6.03 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the season and has given up 22 HR. I’d be willing to wager that there is nearly zero chance that number remains at 22 after tonight.

San Fransisco Giants vs Johan Oviedo

Oviedo has shown some flashes of upside at times, but overall he is not a very good pitcher. Over his last two starts before the ASB, he gave up 13 ER in 11.2 innings of work against Milwaukee and the Dodgers. While the Giants clearly don’t have that type of lineup, there are quite a few good pieces that can do some damage.

Patrick Bailey, Wilmer Flores, JD Davis, and Joc Pederson are all fairly cheap and have some upside here. Michael Conforto left the game last night after being hit by a pitch, but seems to be OK. Don’t be surprised if he sits out, but if he is in the lineup I’m a fan here. Even the bottom of the order guys like Casey Schmitt, Brandon Crawford, and Luis Matos could be in play here. I’m not a fan of Oviedo and I think you can attack him for cheap tonight!

MLB DFS Summary

Hope everyone enjoyed the ASB, let’s get back to making some money!

Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!

It’s the last day of games before the All-Star break, which means a few things. We will likely see some lineups we don’t expect, guys being given a bit of rest, and everything in between. The main slate starts at 1:35 ET, and there is plenty to be excited about! Let’s crush this slate then get ready to make some money on the Home Run Derby!

MLB DFS Aces

Jesus Luzardo vs Philadelphia Phillies

Yet another player who came up with Oakland who is finding success elsewhere. Weird how that happens. We aren’t here to commiserate about that team and their ineptitude. What we ARE here for is money, and Luzardo has been MONEY lately.

His last three starts have each been worth a minimum of 28.7 DK points, and he has a 26/4 K/BB over those three outings while allowing…ZERO runs. He has 120 K in 103 innings of work, and the Phillies are always susceptible to the punchout. While some may flock to the more proven commodity in Aaron Nola in this game, I’m on Luzardo.

Over the last 7 days, the Phillies offense has been pathetic, posting a 23.7% K rate and a 3.4% BB rate, which is EASILY the lowest in baseball over that span.

Luzardo should have plenty of upside in this one, and I love him here. The Marlins are small -120 favorites here with a total of just 7.5. It’s time to turn to Jesus.

Tarik Skubal vs Toronto Blue Jays

No, this isn’t a piggyback play after what happened to Toronto yesterday. What I’m after here is one of the best young arms in the game who is ready to roll. His 2023 debut was nothing short of spectacular, tossing four no-hit innings with six punchouts against the A’s on just 58 pitches.

I would be stunned to see him go much more than 80 pitches here as the Tigers ease him back into action, but we have to take some shots on a slate like this, and I love Skubal. The dynasty baseball nerd in me has been watching his progress for years, and the kid has ace potential in my book.

The short leash certainly puts a damper on his upside, but I’m rolling with him here. We may see an unorthodox lineup from Toronto, but either way I think he can smash this salary. The risk is inherent, but you don’t win without taking chances. This is my hill to die on today.

Shane Bieber vs Kansas City Royals

Bieber is still a very good pitcher, although he isn’t often the guy who will rack up huge strikeout numbers anymore. Well, facing a Kansas City offense may change that for him today. He faced this same AAAA squad two starts back and was fantastic, striking out 8 over six scoreless innings with just a single walk and two hits.

He has had his issues this season, including five walks last time out against Atlanta, but we can go ahead and give him a pass there. This play is about safety and some upside, and Bieber has it all against this offense. The Royals have a 27.1% K rate over the last week, a .277 team wOBA, and a 73 wRC+. They are struggling big time, and the Guardians are looking to end the first half in a big way. Bieber is a solid option today.

MLB DFS Stacks

Cincinnati Reds vs Wade Miley

The former Reds pitcher is in for a rough day on Sunday. The Reds have shocked the MLB world with their breakout this season, and they have been one of the best against LHP. On the season, they own a .770 OPS, .335 wOBA, and a walk rate north of 8% against southpaws.

Miley is a contact pitcher who doesn’t miss bats very often. He has just 38 strikeouts to 16 walks over 61 innings this season, and the Reds lineup is dangerous.

Elly De La Cruz just completed more history yesterday by stealing every base in about 10 seconds, Joey Votto has found the fountain of youth (be sure to check if he is in the lineup), and the list goes on all day. Matt Mclain, Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson, and Jake Fraley are all in play here. Kevin Newman shouldn’t be blocking CES anymore, but he is cheap and could hit leadoff. The Reds are looking to make a statment before the break, and Miley is going to have to take on the challenge.

Godspeed.

Chicago White Sox vs Steven Matz

Sure, Matz is unlikely to go past 4 innings or so, as his highest pitch count is 64 since late May as a bullpen arm. He is taking the place of Adam Wainwright because he is “hurt” (he just sucks, but that’s what we are being told).

Luis Robert is one of the hottest hitters on the planet, Eloy Jimenez is taking form, Jake Burger, Oscar Colas, and Tim Anderson all have some upside here as well. Matz may be given a longer leash in order to preserve some bullpen arms, and that is good news for the ‘Sox. They can’t be any worse than they were yesterday, right?

Chicago Cubs vs Domingo German

Regardless of the fact that he is a truly terrible person and shouldn’t be playing professional baseball, German is not that good as a pitcher either. Perfect game aside, he has had major struggles this season. I imagine Dansby Swanson will continue to get rest going into the break, but did you know that Cody Bellinger (despite going 0-4 yesterday) is batting .449 over the last 14 days? Even more impressively, his K rate is 7.5% over that span. He is looking again like a former MVP.

Journeyman Mike Tauchman has been heating up, Ian Happ is always a threat to park one in the seats, Nico Hoerner is one of the best contact hitters in the game, and Seiya Suzuki has power upside as well. If you believe in Christopher Morel also, I don’t blame you.

This is going to be a bad day for a bad person, and we will make some money from it. Let’s go Cubbies!

MLB DFS Summary

I hope everyone makes some cash and enjoys the All-Star Break! See you all here again next week!

Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!

Saturday is here, and we have a nice 11-game slate starting at 1:05 ET! There are quite a few options I’m excited about on this slate, and plenty of targets to stack against! Time to get this money train rolling. Let’s do it!

MLB DFS Aces

James Paxton vs Oakland Athletics

Paxton was one of the best pitchers in MLB before he missed what felt like 10 years with injury. Well, he is back and as good as ever, sporting a 2.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 61/13 K/BB over 50 innings of work. Saturday he takes on the lowly Athletics, and is a monster -220 favorite.

Oakland isn’t a team that strikes out a ton, but they also rank 30th in MLB in both runs scored and hits. Estuery Ruiz is now on the IL, which takes away some speed from the basepaths. Paxton is expensive, but he may be worth every penny in what looks like a dream home matchup this afternoon.

Kevin Gausman vs Detroit Tigers

Saturday’s slate seems like as good a time as any to take advantage of some significant mismatches. The Tigers haven’t been much better offensively than the Athletics, and they have to face the workhorse Gausman.

Also listed as a -220 favorite, Gausman is one of the frontrunners for CY Young in the American League. He has racked up 146 strikeouts to just 27 walks in his 109.2 innings in 2023. Gausman has 11+ strikeouts in three of his last seven games, and seven times overall this season.

He is a solid bet to lead the Jays to another road win here, and should have little issue racking up strikeouts here once again on the road in a pitcher’s park in Detroit.

Tyler Wells vs Minnesota Twins

It is well-known how bad the Twins have struggled at making contact this season. For the entire season, the Twins have a K rate of nearly 27%, which is the worse in all of MLB. They are a league-average offense that is loaded with bats like Joey Gallo and Byron Buxton that are true three-outcome hitters.

Wells should have no problem racking up some Ks here, and regardless of that, he has been incredibly solid this season. He owns a 3.19 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 99/22 K/BB in 2023. Home runs have been an issue, as he has served up 21 of those bad boys already. Crazily enough, he somehow finds a way to give up primarily solo shots.

A product of keeping the bases clear, Wells hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in a start since May 24th against the Yankees, despite having three games where he allowed 2 HR.

If he keeps the ball in the park and ducks off the pond, he is a sneaky contender for one of the high scores of the day.

MLB DFS Stacks

San Fransisco Giants vs Connor Seabold

Seabold is…not good. On the season, he has an ERA nearing 7, a 1.47 WHIP, and has allowed EIGHT home runs over his last three starts. While this Giants offense isn’t nearly as good as the Dodgers and Braves who did 2/3 of that damage to Mr. Seabold, the upside is there.

There are few bats that I’m excited about for this one, but I expect plenty of fireworks. This is the ultimate “get-right” situation for the Giants. JD Davis, Patrick Bailey, Joc Pederson, Luis Matos, and LaMonte Wade Jr. are my primary targets here. Blake Sabol might get a start, and he is worth a look as well. This is more of a lack of confidence in Seabold than it is confidence in the Giants.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Touki Toussaint

Remember when Touki was one of the top prospects in the minors? He was supposed to be the next big thing? He had his moments, but overall he is a fringe MLB player at best. His command was always poor, and that isn’t going to serve him well against the Cardinals.

Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado will have their way with him, Brendan Donovan is swinging a hot bat, Nolan Gorman has top-shelf power, and Jordan Walker is struggling, but this may be the spot to get him going as well. I love this stack, and even though the team sucks overall, we are just here for fantasy points. Stack ’em up!

Cincinnati Reds vs Colin Rea

The Reds were mowed down by Corbin Burnes for the most part yesterday, but showed some signs of life late. Colin Rea isn’t the pitcher who will be fooling many of these hitters. He has a total of 7 strikeouts over his last three starts (18.1 IP), and if these Reds are making contact, it is generally very loud contact.

Elly De La Cruz, Matt Mclain, Jonathan India, Joey Votto, and even Will Benson or Tyler Stephenson for a wraparound stack. I’m all over the Reds here, and think they put a hurting on Rea. I optimistically hoped they would get to Burnes, but Counsell was smart and pulled him just as the wheels started to fall off.

This is a huge game in the division, and I’m expecting fireworks on both sides. The Brewers are a solid stack as well against Luke Weaver, but I’ll take some lower ownership on the Reds.

MLB DFS Summary

Good luck on Saturday! I love the Cardinals stack and will be filling in around Wells and one of the other top arms with bats from the Reds and Giants! Let’s kick the weekend off right!

Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!