MLB DFS Top Plays

Starting Rotation 5.7

The Friday night slate for MLB is as large as ever, but the pitching options are…fine, I guess? It’s interesting because there are quite a few spots that make sense, but I’m not sure we have a massive favorite as we’ve seen for the past few days. With there being a lot of names on the docket, let’s get rolling in the Starting Rotation 5.7 and figure out what paths we’re going to take for green screens! 

Starting Rotation 5.7 – Main Targets 

Carlos Rodon ($10,000 DK/$11,200 FD)

I’m trying to find a major red flag that would tell us Rodon is ready to fall apart, and we have to realize it’s only been three starts. Still, it’s hard to find the metric that makes Rodon unappealing. He’s up 2 MPH across the board and the four-seam/slider combo is doing some heavy lifting. Of the 36 strikeouts Rodon has recorded, those two pitches have 34 of them and the wOBA is under .190 for both pitches. 

They also both have a whiff rate over 35% which helps explain the massive jump in K rate up to 37.9%. Rodon has a WHIP of 0.64 and even with a no-hitter under his belt, that’s impressive. The barrel rate is just 6.4% and the swinging-strike rate is 17.3%. The Royals are not a big strikeout team at 17.9% but are bottom 10 in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, ISO, and OBP. Rodon has held RHH to just a .193 wOBA and he stands out as the top option if you’re planning on spending up to my eyes. 

Jack Flaherty ($9,400 DK/$10,200 FD) 

I’m surprised to see the Rockies rank so well in pitch data but it sure seems like that’s Coors-driven. Colorado away from home against righty pitching is pretty terrible. They are 30th in ISO, 22nd in wOBA, 24th in wRC+, 21st in OPS, and 27th in slugging. All of that comes with a 25% K rate and Flaherty has recovered nicely since his Opening Day disaster. His K rate is 25.9%, he’s got the HR/9 down to 0.79 after a 1.34 mark in 2020, and the hard-hit rate is under 29%. 

This is coming while pitching behind in the count more often than he would like since his first strike rate has gone from 61.8% in 2020 to 53.2% this year. Both sides of the plater are under a .290 wOBA given up and Flaherty has increased his four-seam usage. Even though it has just an 18.9% whiff rate, it’s still his best pitch with a .224 wOBA given up. Both sides of the plate are under a. 285 wOBA so far and there’s not much of an argument to leave Flaharty out of the pool tonight. He way even wind up chalky. 

Trevor Rogers ($8,800 DK/$10,400 FD) 

We get Rogers in a repeat spot but he has had one start since facing the Brewers. The last time out he gave up a three-run bomb against Washington but that was about it, scoring 12.5 DK points on just 77 pitches. I will say I’m not crazy about the price on FD since Rogers has only been over 85 pitches once this season. Even with potentially limited pitches, Rogers has a 33.8% K rate and only a 1.06 WHIP despite his 10% walk rate. The barrel rate continues to be solid at 5.6% and the swinging-strike rate is 16.5%, which is fourth in the league behind deGrom, Glasnow, and Bieber. That’s some pretty elite company. 

The natural inclination is to play righty hitters against lefty pitchers but Rogers has owned that side of the plate with a .250 wOBA, .550 OPS, and a 2.64 FIP. Additionally, the whiff rate on his four-seam is 35.3%, and has racked up 32 of 44 strikeouts. He does have some metrics that cause a little concern, but he’s also recorded at least six strikeouts in each start. With Milwaukee sporting a K rate over 29% so far against lefties, it’s not hard to see the upside for Rogers tonight. 

Julio Urias ($9,700 DK/$10,000 FD)

The results have been a little inconsistent, but Urias has been dominant so far by about every metric we use. The FIP/xFIP combo of 2.81 and 3.08 totally support the 2.87 ERA and he’s got the walks under control at 4.1%. His career rate is 8.4% so that is a very good sign. His K rate has also made a big jump and his curveball is a big reason why. It’s sporting a .150 wOBA .120 average, and a 34.1% whiff rate. It also leads in strikeouts among his main three pitches with 18 of 42 so far. This could be a strong reason for the curve being so good so far –

The best curveball hitters on the Angels are Justin Upton, Jared Walsh, and Anthony Rendon (who is on the IL). That’s not exactly terrifying considering Walsh whiffs over 38% of the time to lefty pitching. Urias also has the highest-rated curve in the league at this point. It is true that the Angels whiff only 20.7% of the time but Urias walks into any slate with serious upside. I’m not sure how much stock we should put in it but Urias has a 0.86 ERA on the road through 21 IP so far this year as well. 

Zac Gallen ($8,900 DK/$8,400 FD)

I’m going to be very interested to see what projected rostership will be here. I’m going under the assumption that Rogers is chalk at $8,800 while Gallen is going to get left to the side at $100 more coming off a bad game as Uber-chalk last time out. I fate field leaves him behind, we have to pay attention because Gallen is wildly talented. His K rate has eclipsed 30% for the first time in his career and his barrel rate is only 6% so far. He’s dropped the cutter usage by a significant amount from 25.7% last year to 9.6% this year. That’s likely a good thing as the cutter gave up a .363 wOBA in 2020 and has a .526 mark so far this season. Every other pitch is at .278 or under so his pitches are playing well right now. 

Playing Gallen is absolutely GPP only since the Mets have the second-best K rate of 20.7% on the season. In addition, Gallen has given up a .330 wOBA, .718 OPS, and only a 17.9% K rate to lefties thus far. That could turn into an issue in this start but Brandon Nimmo hitting the IL doesn’t hurt Gallen in the least. This is a bet on a very talented pitcher who has a career mark of a .288 wOBA to lefties, and that should come back to Earth a bit at some point. 

Charlie Morton ($7,700 DK/$7,900 FD)

This could be a very nice bounce-back spot for Ground Chuck. The Phillies have the second-highest ground ball rate and the sixth-highest K rate to righty pitching. Looking at Morton’s 5.08 ERA, you might not think this is a spot he can take advantage of but the 3.67/3.45 FIP/xFIP combo tells a better story. The 16% HR/FB rate is very high for him and the 65.1% strand rate won’t stay either. Morton is rocking a 27.5% K rate and a 5.7% barrel rate to go along with a 51.7% ground ball rate. That’s 15th in the league and the 31.2% CSW is really good as well. His curve is the most-used pitch to righties and has a 45.8% whiff rate.

It’s odd to see Morton struggling to righties because that’s very out of character compared to his career numbers. With the length of Morton’s career, I’m leaning towards that evening out sooner than later and with the Phillies not hitting his main two pitches well, this could be the start to pull it off. When it happens, we need to be there because Morton has a .295 wOBA to righties in his career. Even now, the .333 mark isn’t completely awful and we can expect a return to form at some point. I really like the price point and the potential for Morton tonight. 

Starting Rotation 5.7 – In Play 

Blake Snell – I would rather play Rodon, and it’s still a concern to me that Snell is the highest-salaried pitcher on DK and he’s yet to get past the fifth inning. When you’re paying top dollar, you need the starter to have a pretty good shot to get deeper into the game unless he’s whiffing almost every other hitter. The 31.6% K rate is great, but Snell is suddenly having a huge walk issue with a 12.8% rate. He hasn’t been in double-digits since 2017 and the Giants walk the second-most to lefties at a 12.2% rate. They are also in the top half of the league in every offensive category we value, making this a difficult spot for Snell. Of course, it doesn’t mean he can’t get through it but he also hasn’t thrown more than 95 pitches all year. At that point, we can play Rogers in a better matchup for $1,200 less. 

Sean Manaea – He’s well in play, but the path is a little murky for him. The Rays are in the top half of the league to his main two pitches and the K rate is good at 23.7%, but not spectacular. Now, Tampa should help with that because the K rate as a team to lefties is 31.3% and they are under league-average in the offensive categories we look at. The lineup is better than the stats shown to this point in theory, but it hasn’t hit the field yet. My largest issue with Manaea is the .326 wOBA to righties because the Rays will likely throw seven in their lineup. His K rate comes down to 19.8% and the xFIP is 4.19. It’s not a crooked number, but it’s clearly the worse side of the splits for him and why I may be hesitant myself. We can’t turn away from the K rate of over 31% for the Rays here, even if it’s in GPP. 

Chris Flexen – “In Play” means MME style, because I wouldn’t be terribly heavy on Flexen. Texas does carry the highest K rate to righty pitching so far and Flexen isn’t a stud in that metric at just 18.4%. He’s also worse to lefties with a .353 wOBA but the BABIP is .389 and his K rate to that side is 21.6%. Of the four lefties Texas should play, three of them have K rates over 26% so there are reasons to believe that Flexen can go six strong here. 

Mike Foltynewicz – Alright, I’m ready to take a shot here. Foltynewicz is using his four-seam 61% of the time and Seattle is 28th against that pitch. They are also eighth in K rate to righty pitching and Folty is at 22.3% for his K rate. We obviously don’t love the 2.43 HR/9 or the 42.4% fly-ball rate, but he’s cheap enough to take a chance on. 

Starting Rotation 5.7 – Out of Play 

Eduardo Rodriguez – I’m really on the fence here, because I don’t want to overreact to one tough start. E-Rod has been excellent for the most part this year, but Baltimore has come around a bit to lefty pitching. They are at least 12th in slugging, OPS, and wOBA but they do strike out 24.2% of the time. It also does help E-Rod that Baltimore is bottom-five against the changeup and that’s actually the most-used pitch for Rodriguez. The xFIP of 2.80 says the 4.18 ERA is likely a little high and his K rate of 27.9% is a career-high. Baltimore could roll out seven righties and that does pose a small issue, as E-Rod has yielded a .334 wOBA, .788 OPS, and a 2.14 HR/9 to that side of the plate. I’m likely to go other options around him in salary unless he comes in as chalk (which I doubt). 

Jose Urquidy – The K rate is a large issue here as it is only 19.7% and his xFIP is 4.93 compared to a 3.71 ERA. It’s not going to help him that Toronto could roll out seven righty hitters and Urquidy has a .347 wOBA, .807 OPS, and a 16.7% K rate with a 5.69 xFIP. Toronto is 15th in wOBA, wRC+, and only whiffs 23.3% of the time. 

Zach Eflin – Much like Urquidy, if I’m going to challenge a good offense on a large slate, I want a reward. The 21.7% K rate that Eflin sports makes that hard to imagine right off the hop, and it will be the third start for Eflin against the Braves this season. One start, he scored 26.8 DK, and the second one he only scored 4.7 so the range of outcomes appears wide. Eflin is better to the right side of the plate, which helps at a .257 wOBA and 25.8% K rate. Still, I can’t quite pull the trigger but that’s just me. 

Zach Plesac – He’s using a four-seam almost 40% of the time and Cincy is the top team in the league against that pitch, which is an issue. Also of concern is the K rate is under 18% for Plesac although he is generating a 24.8% hard-hit rate and a 51.5% ground ball rate. With Plesac giving up a 2.12 HR/9 to righties and facing hitters like Nicholas Castellanos is not going to be an easy task for him. The hope for Plesac and his path to success is the Reds struggle to righties on the road. They are bottom-three in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. I just want to use pitchers with a higher K rate in the salary range. 

Jameson Taillon – I’m not buying into the last game for Taillon since it came against the Tigers. The Yankees are justifiably being careful with the righty, as he’s not pitched more than five innings and he’s not thrown more than 84 pitches. He’s likely a bit better than the 5.24 ERA shows since he has a 3.86 xFIP but the 2.01 HR/9 is concerning. The 53.3% fly-ball rate isn’t comforting either and lefties are hammering him so far. They have a .404 wOBA, .939 OPS, and a 3.00 HR/9. Now, that’s coming with a .455 BABIP but the FIP is also 5.21 so there are enough issues with the profile that I would pass at the salary. 

David Peterson – The Arizona offense is first in wOBA, ISO, OPS, and slugging so far this season. While Peterson carries a 29% K rate and will be interesting in some spots, this is not one of them for me. 

Anthony DeSclafani – The only two great starts for him so far have been against the Rockies in San Francisco, so this spot is tough to get behind. With San Diego sporting the second-best K rate to righty pitching, I’m not sure there’s a ton of upside. Does 15 DK really do much for you tonight? 

Griffin Canning – I’m interested in seeing how he does tonight since he’s been using the slider more and it had a .290 wOBA, 15 strikeouts, and 47.8% whiff rate. His HR/FB rate is 28.8% which is absurd and helps explain the 3.42 xFIP compared to the 6.20 ERA. The issues are A. it’s the Dodgers lineup that can explode any game and B. they are 12th against the slider. Maybe another night we can use Canning and his 29.5% K rate. 

Ross Stripling – He’s sporting a 43.9% fly-ball rate, a 7.8% swinging-strike rate, 1.74 WHIP, and Houston has the best K rate in baseball to righties. 

Rich Hill – He’s been a wild ride so far and has three starts of fewer than 4.2 IP. That alone is an issue, and even Oakland being 22nd against his curve doesn’t do enough to put him in play. They are second in ISO, ninth in OPS, and sixth in wRC+. Righties have a 2.18 HR/9 against Hill this season. I know that Hill dominated them once this year, but I’m betting he can’t do it again. 

Wade Miley – I’m not exactly running to stack Cleveland, but Miley has a 54.9% ground ball rate and could frustrate this offense. The main issue is he only has a 17.6% K rate and a strand rate over 80%. 

Patrick Corbin – I’m not thinking a 2.70 HR/9, 5.68 xFIP, and a 16.5% K rate will survive in New York. Oh, Corbin has gotten annihilated by righties for a .462 wOBA, 1.098 OPS, 3.63 HR/9, and an 8.93 FIP. The Bronx Bombers will justifiably be popular. 

Matt Harvey – He’s been fine but we need better than fine against Boston. His first two starts against them were worth 10 and eight DK points, and I’m not sure we should expect different tonight. 

Matt Shoemaker – I think the way to get to expensive bats (Yankees) and at least one high-salary pitcher is the Detroit Tigers. They strike out like that’s what they get paid for, but Shoemaker is giving up a .370 average, 1.151 OPS, .479 wOBA, 4.66 HR/9, and a 9.62 FIP to the left side. The Tigers should have at least five in the lineup tonight, and the majority are under $4,000 on DK. 

Austin Gomber – I can’t get to a pitcher that has a 5.09 xFIP and a 5.5% K-BB rate. He’s getting roughed up by righties with a .356 wOBA and the Cardinals are top-six in all of our offensive categories. 

Tarik Skubal – We’re looking at a 6.83 xFIP, 3.27 HR/9, and a 3.8% K-BB rate. Righties have just worked him over at a 4.50 HR/9 and just a 12.5% K rate. Minnesota has the tools to be an elite offense against lefties and could put out eight RHH. 

Brad Keller – He’s gotten waxed with a 5.52 xFIP, 6.01 FIP, and both sides of the plate have a wOBA of at least .393. 

Brent Suter – I almost put Suter in play, but this will be his first start of the season and he’s not thrown more than 37 pitches yet. I would guess he has about 50-60 tonight and the metrics don’t look poor with a 3.63 xFIP, 22.4% K rate, and a 54.3% ground ball rate. Let’s see if we get a pitch count before completely taking him off the table. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.7 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.6

Thursday afternoon brings us a very nice eight-game slate with some interesting pitching options up top and some not-so-interesting options after that. It’s a fairly top-heavy slate at the first pass, so let’s see if that holds up in the Starting Rotation 5.6 and lay our foundation for green screens! 

Starting Rotation 5.6 – Main Targets 

Gerrit Cole ($10,500 DK/$12,300 FD) 

Astros Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 9th SL – 3rd CB – 23rd CH – 14th 

Just when you thought Cole was dominant enough, he’s adding to his arsenal. I saw this on Twitter when Corey Kluber dominated the Tigers earlier in the week, but the Yankees are making an effort to have their pitchers throw a changeup if it works for them. Kluber is doing the same thing but Cole is throwing it a career-high 15.4%. His previous his was 10.5% in 2017 and last season it was only at 5.6%. Why is this important? Well, his change has been nasty. Only John (Mr. No Hitter) Means has a higher rated changeup via FanGraphs this year. It has generated 14 strikeouts, yielded a .050 wOBA, and sports a 47.1% whiff rate. I mean, sometimes facing a pitcher just isn’t fair – 

The other pitches for Cole are the normal suspects and his four-seam/slider combo has 43 strikeouts and neither pitch has given up anything over a .212 wOBA to this point. His 44.3% K rate isn’t that far behind Jacob deGrom for the number one spot and his HR/9 went from a 1.73 mark in 2020 to 0.24 so far this year. All of this is to say that the Astros are not the easiest matchup, it doesn’t matter with the outstanding metrics Cole displays. If you want the narrative angle, this is the first time Cole has faced Houston after leaving in free agency. For those who may forget, Cole was not used when Houston lost in Game 7 to Washington in the World Series. He then wore a Scott Boras hat in the postgame and tweeted a goodbye message to Houston almost immediately. Sure, the man secured the bag but I’m not sure Houston ended on the best note for him. I don’t have much use for narratives often but call this a hunch that Cole wants to absolutely show out today. 

Brandon Woodruff ($9,300 DK/$10,100 FD) 

I’m not sure Woodruff gets the love he should with Corbin Burnes being in his rotation, but he’s having a phenomenal year of his own. The 1.80 ERA is basically backed up by a 2.14 FIP and a 2.99 xFIP, along with a stout 30.1% K rate. His WHIP is only 0.80 in part due to a walk rate under 7%. Nobody can get a barrel on him at just 2.4% so far and the fly ball rate is also under 30%. That’s the kind of top-notch profile we look for and then we add in the Philly is a top 10 team in K rate to righty pitching. 

Technically, he is worse to righty hitters but we’re talking about a .216 wOBA, 28.8% K rate, and a 2.54 FIP. If that’s the poor end of your splits, I can’t say I’m worried about the opposing lineup all that much. What I really like here is that Woodruff’s four-seam is the strikeout pitch, with 26 of 40 so far. He’s only allowed a .177 wOBA on it so far and it’s the most-used pitch to righty hitters. With Philly typically sporting a righty-heavy lineup and being bottom-five against fastballs, it’s not hard to see why double ace is appealing yet again. 

Danny Duffy ($8,800 DK/$10,700 FD)

It’s impossible not to feel like Duffy is going to bite us at these salaries at some point. Truthfully, I’d play Woodruff ahead of Duffy on FD almost every single time but my word has Duffy been fantastic so far. The xFIP of 3.71 would be the largest concern since it’s a full 3.00 runs higher than the ERA but I don’t think the expectation is for Duffy to sit at a 0.60 ERA all year. The K rate is sustainable at 28.8% in my eyes as it’s not a giant leap from last season’s 23.6%. His swinging-strike rate has never been better at 13.9% and he’s leaned more into his four-seam/slider combo than last season. That’s working as they have 27 of his 30 strikeouts to this point. The velocity for the four-seam is up almost 2 MPH and that’s helped generate a 28.1% whiff rate compared to 21.4% in 2020. He’s also touching 96, just ask Bob Ross –

Cleveland continues to be a fairly pop-gun offense, especially to lefties. The whiff rate is only 19.7% but they are no higher than 23rd in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, OBP, average, and slugging. They do climb to 14th in ISO but that’s not something to hold back Duffy. He’s been lights out to righty hitters with a .203 wOBA, .427 OPS, and a 28.9% K rate. Cleveland is projected to have eight RHH in their lineups and by the metrics, it’s hard to ignore Duffy. 

Nathan Eovaldi ($8,400 DK/$8,600 FD)

You may as well get used to seeing pitchers against the Tigers because the strikeout is king in MLB DFS. Detroit is striking out at obscene rates regardless of which hand the pitcher throws with. They have a monster lead in K rate to lefties and are only 1% behind the Rangers for the lead to righties. The K rate of 22.4% for Eovaldi is accentuated by the opposition, and the pitch data certainly looks like it’ll be an advantage for him as well. Eovaldi sports a 4% barrel rate and a 27% fly-ball rate, excellent combos to use him against a poor offense. 

His splits are about dead even as well, so there’s not really a lineup from Detroit that takes me off this play. What’s interesting is he’s really cut back on the cutter usage. That’s not a bad thing because it’s not exactly a big strikeout pitch, though it does have seven so far. It’s also giving up a wOBA of .320 so it doesn’t need to be heavily utilized. There are not many pitchers I won’t use against the Tigers. 

Starting Rotation 5.6 – In Play 

Zack Wheeler –  Is Wheeler in play with a 26.6% K rate and a 0.93 HR/9? Absolutely. Am I going to use him all that much with Woodruff sitting right there? Well, that’s a different story. Look, the Brew Crew are still whiffing at a top-four rate of 27.2% and Wheeler’s 12% swinging-strike rate is the best he’s ever put up. Still, Woodruff is cheaper on DK. That’s going to play with my head. The results for Wheeler have been a roller coaster on top of that. He’s had two starts with over 35 DK points and four with under 14.5. Wheeler has the four-seam up to 97.3 MPH and has 16 strikeouts with it, the most of his repertoire. It’s also sporting a .316 wOBA and the Brewers are fourth against fastballs on the season. 

Lance McCullers – I’m not sure I have the guts to chase this play but there’s a route via the metrics that it does make sense. His curve and slider are the strikeout pitches, with 21 of 30 so far. They make up about 50% of his arsenal and New York is 18th and 15th against those pitches, respectively. Now, he throws the curve to lefties and the slider to righties. There is a large concern that he hasn’t thrown the curve to right-handers, as that is his best weapon. Well, maybe because the slider is filth –

Not using the curve to righties is the largest reason why I’ll likely skip McCullers. He also has a 27.3% K rate which is high enough to see some ceiling and the ground ball rate is 53.2, which is great to see in New York. That would also be 10th in the league if he qualified. Lastly, the RHH are the better side of the splits for him. They have a .405 OPS, .220 wOBA, and a 255% K rate. The best metric against the righties is the 63.3% ground ball rate. I can’t quite kick him out of the pool on a shorter slate but he is very scary. 

Taijuan Walker – It’s not exactly the perfect match, but Walker could get it done for DFS at this salary. His walk rate is a big issue at 13.3% but the Cardinals walk only 7.8% of the time, 24th in the league. They also have a 24.8% K rate which is 11th so it helps hide some of Walker’s weaker points. He only has a 23.9% K rate, which isn’t great with a walk rate that high. St. Louis is also 14th in ground ball rate, which might help mitigate Walker’s 34.8% ground ball rate. Walker is better against righties, and the Cards should have a total of seven including the pitcher spot. He’s only giving up a .256 wOBA, .567 OPS, and a 25% K rate. The four-seam/slider is his best combo with 20 strikeouts between them and neither pitch has a wOBA over .240. Really, his largest issue is the sinker because it has all of three strikeouts and is yielding a .449 wOBA. The Cards are average to four-seams and sliders, so Walker is in play. Just ditch the sinker and lean into the 94 MPH fastball. 

Triston McKenzie – This is ONLY if you MME, and not much exposure at that. I just can’t in good faith let McKenzie go at this salary without looking at him. Yes, he’s been largely a disaster this year with a 6.38/5.09 FIP/xFIP combo but the K rate is over 31% and the swinging-strike rate is 14.2%, ups from last year. In fairness, the walk rate is also up to over 21% so that looms large. His slider and curve make up about 28% of his pitches and they’ve yet to yield a hit and both have a whiff rate of at least 50%. The four-seam has been the issue with a .523 slug, .421 wOBA, and down 1 MPH in velocity. Last year, he had a .328 slug and a .299 wOBA on that pitch. Kansas City is seventh against the fastball, which is worrisome. I do like he’s got RHH down at a .282 wOBA and a 39.1% K rate, so perhaps this is a get-right spot for the young man. He’s too talented to continue down this route. 

Starting Rotation 5.6 – Out of Play 

Hyun Jin Ryu – If we didn’t have better options, I might be more inclined to play Ryu here. The glute injury isn’t a major concern but the matchup certainly is. Oakland can get after lefty pitchers and Ryu has seen the K rate drop down to 23.4%, although in fairness the 13.3% swinging-strike rate and the 32.2% CSW are both career highs. Ryu has been just alright to righties with a .322 wOBA and an OPS of .758. I’d rather go elsewhere today. 

Michael Pineda – Sure, the Rangers lead the league in K rate but the scary hitters tend to be on the left side and Pineda struggles with that side. They’ve gotten to him for a .313 wOBA, .720+ OPS, 2.31 HR/9, and a 5.25/4.97 FIP/xFIP combo. That’s not what I’m chasing today, although I admit it wouldn’t shock me if Pineda had more than six strikeouts. 

Drew Smyly – The Nationals can hammer lefties and they stand out as one of, if not the best stacks on the slate. Smyly has a 4.26 HR/9, 8.05 ERA, 8.48 FIP, 1.53 WHIP, a 54.1% fly-ball rate, and a hard-hit rate approaching 40%. Hello Washington Nationals. 

John Gant – He’s getting worked by lefties with a .357 wOBA, .782 OPS, and a 6.09 xFIP. The Mets have been tilting this year but I have zero interest in Gant for the Starting Rotation 5.6. 

Spencer Turnbull – He has a toolkit that could frustrate Boston, but the 17.9% K rate really isn’t worth the risk. What worries me about playing Boston is the 51.1% ground ball rate for Turnbull and the 18.4% hard-hit rate. Having said those things, his 6.9% (yeeeeeesh) K rate to righties and 5.28 xFIP will likely come back to bite him against a good Boston offense. 

Jon Lester – Brian is going to HATE this, but I have to say it. 

whispers, barely audible

The Braves have been absolute trash to lefties this season. 

There, I said it. They got no-hit by the husk of Madison Bumgarner, guys. Come. On. As a team, they have the sixth-highest K rate (irrelevant with Lester) and sit 29th in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. The highest rank is ISO, but they are only 20th in that metric. Through his first five IP, Lester had a 4.98 xFIP and 5.75 xERA even though he didn’t give up a run. That’s absolutely the Lester line, and I am NOT playing him. I’m just saying that while I will have an Atlanta stack because I play Picks and Pivots, this has Lester getting the last laugh on us written all over it. Man, I want to be wrong here. 

Mike Fiers – He’s only pitched six innings this year, but the last two years his K rate has been 16.7%, 14.4%, and then 12% in his first start. I want much higher potential if I pick on the Blue Jays lineup. Fiers also emerged from that first start with a FIP over 7.00 and a 15% barrel rate. 

Jordan Lyles – He’s up to a 2.57 HR/9, 6.14 FIP, 11.5% barrel rate, and just an 18% K rate. The fly ball rate and hard-hit rate are both over 40% which is a very poor combo. Lastly, righties have a .451 wOBA, 1.091 OPS, .343 average, and a massive 3.71 HR/9. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.6 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.5

We have another double-digit slate ahead of us with 11 games on the docket and another evening where there is a clear-cut stud to anchor our cash lineups with. Hopefully, we get to play him tonight. Tuesday saw Jacob deGrom scratched with right lat tightness, something we certainly don’t want to see. Let’s dig into the Starting Rotation 5.5 and figure out who we want to play after the ace to round out our lineups for green screens! 

Starting Rotation 5.5 – Main Targets

Shane Bieber ($10,400 DK/$12,200 FD)

With mortal pitchers, the data would be a concern since the Royals are 12th or better against two pitchers. That’s not something I sweat with pitchers like Bieber. He is fourth in K rate at 39.7% and the Royals whiff 22.5% of the time. That’s top-five but again, it’s Bieber so I’m not nearly as worried about it. The righty is difficult to square up with a 25.8% hard-hit rate and the swinging-strike rate of 19.1% is third in the majors. The slider has been his best-rated pitch as it is second in the league in FanGraphs ratings and we can understand why, and it doesn’t matter which side of the plate you’re on –

Bieber has really increased the usage this season from 11% last year and it has also given up the lowest average, slug, and wOBA so far with a 54.3% whiff rate. That’s the highest mark of his three main pitches and it’s interesting to see Whit Merrifield is the worst hitter against the slider on the Royals. The top three are Carlos Santana, Nicky Lopez, and Salvador Perez. With Bieber dominating the right side of the plate with a .207 wOBA, .159 average, and a 2.08 FIP those concerns really lessen. To my eyes, there really isn’t a strong argument he’s not the best option on the slate. 

Yu Darvish ($10,200 DK/$11,800 FD)

Darvish throws a veritable cornucopia of pitches, so the data as far as the slider and cutter don’t give me much pause in pitching him. Even the Pitching Ninja can’t name some of his pitches (I’d just label this as “evil” myself) –

After Opening Day, Darvish has been as sharp as ever and virtually everything is in line with last season. The xFIP at 3.53 compared to the ERA at 2.13 says he might have a little recession but it’s nothing that’s too scary. That’s especially true when the K rate is 32.9%, the WHIP is 0.89, and the opponent whiffs 23.2% of the time. My Buccos are also no higher than 20th in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ so far this season (with little reason to expect it to get better). 

The good news is even if you’re slightly worried about the slider, Darvish has the highest-rated one in the majors. It leads his strikeout totals with 12 and he’s allowed exactly one hit off it across 23 batted ball events. Neither side of the plate has a wOBA over .275 and both sides are striking out over 30% of the time. Just like last night, it’s pretty easy to build a strong case for double aces in any format. 

Martin Perez ($6,600 DK/$6,700 FD)

Perez has had a relatively shaky year but did just prove he can take advantage of a good matchup. They don’t get better for lefty pitching than the Detroit Tigers. They whiff at an absurd 37.7% rate so far this season to lefty pitching. When they make contact, it’s not going well then either and that’s being kind. They are dead last in every single offensive category we value. This is the best matchup in baseball, even if a pitcher like Perez isn’t always on our radar. He’s suffering through a .348 BABIP right now but the K rate is 20.8% which would be the first time he’s been over 20% in his career. Perez isn’t getting hit hard either with a 4.3% barrel rate and a 21.4% hard-hit rate. The splits are very even across the board and Perez should be able to get through six innings with 5-6 strikeouts. It’s hard not to attack the Tigers anytime they face a southpaw. 

Brady Singer ($5,500 DK)

I’m at a loss here because Singer is wildly cheap and I can’t particularly understand why. Sure, the last start resulted in 0.9 DK points but he left that one after two innings with a slight injury. There seem to be no concerns about anything tonight, and the price went from $7,000 to $5,500. In the previous three starts, Singer accumulated 18 innings, gave up two earned runs, and racked up 20 strikeouts.

That fits with his 26.3% K rate, 51.6% ground ball rate, and a 27.4% hard-hit rate. The FIP/xFIP combo are both under 3.60, while he’s generating a 9.2% swinging-strike rate. There is some small concern that lefties hit him better with a .293 wOBA but it’s not like that mark is all that bad. Cleveland is striking out a ton against righties at 25.6%, eighth-most in baseball. Singer should not be this cheap and if you decide to not go with the double ace approach, he could be an elite salary-saver. 

J.T. Brubaker ($6,900 DK/$7,500 FD)

This is likely only in very deep GPP, but Brubaker has started the year extremely well. The xFIP of 3.24 isn’t terribly far off the 2.63 ERA and even the 3.91 FIP isn’t poor. The Padres don’t strike out much at 21.3% and that is the second-best mark but Brubaker is over 26% himself. When he’s not striking hitters out, the ground ball rate is 54.2% and the Padres have the fifth-highest ground ball rate in baseball to righty pitching. This is from 2020, but you can get an idea of what that slider does when it’s working –

One aspect that has been very impressive so far is the 13.6% swinging-strike rate, which I did not expect. There is a fair concern with the .374 wOBA and .869 OPS to righty hitting, especially with Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, and Wil Myers likely in the lineup. Even then, it feels like the .324 BABIP to the side is high and Brubaker has face two righty-heavy lineups in his last two starts. 

Starting Rotation 5.5 – In Play 

Walker Buehler – This portion and the next pitcher were stolen from previous articles. With the scheduling issues in Chicago, both starters have already been written up. 

Buehler is always in play and he’s always one of my least favorites to actually use. With Bieber and Darvish on the mound, he will not be a primary target for me. I can’t explain it but he always burns me no matter my decision. He’s really talented, with a 25.4% K rate and both the FIP/xFIP are 3.30 or under. The barrel rate isn’t exceptional at over 12% but the Cubs are whiffing almost 29% of the time, fourth-most in MLB. They should also have five RHH and the pitcher’s spot, and Buehler is holding righties to a .200 wOBA and .194 average. Lefties are getting him for a .371 wOBA and a 2.08 HR/9. I’m likely to stay clear of this spot and perhaps use a Cubs lefty as a one-off, like Anthony Rizzo. 

Adbert Alzolay – On paper, I’d likely pass but he could be breaking out to some extent. Azlolay has had a solid 21 IP so far with a 3.78/3.51 FIP/xFIP combo. The K rate is very interesting at 28.4% with a 0.90 WHIP, not to mention a hard-hit rate under 28% and a swinging-strike rate of 14.3%. He’s using the slider 47.2% of the time which is a massive jump from 2020. It was only thrown 6.7% of the time last year but in 2021, it has 17 of 23 strikeouts, a .146 wOBA, and a 40.5% whiff rate. The Dodgers are not ideal, but I’m leaving Azlolay on the table. 

Freddy Peralta – When you’re one of five pitchers who has a K rate over 40%, you’re going to be in play every single slate. Philly is 26th against the fastball and 19th against the slider, which Peralta throws about 90% of the time. They also have a top 10 K rate to righty pitching, so there is upside for Peralta. The 12.5% walk rate is super high but he’s got the WHIP right at 1.00 and the hard-hit rate under 30%. With a 14.7% swinging-strike rate, he can make up for some mistakes but the fear is always he’s too wild to have a big game. The 51.8% K rate to righty pitching could really sync up well against the Phillies since they normally have four. The lefties like Brad Miller and Odubel Herrera aren’t exactly reasons to avoid Peralta. 

Johan Oviedo

*NOTE* Oviedo is scheduled to start Game 2 of the double-header and I’m still fine using pitchers in the short seven inning games.

The 23-year old has been impressive so far through just 9.2 IP, with a 29.7% K rate, a 3.42 FIP/3.17 xFIP combo, and a 0.93 WHIP. The ground ball rate is 50% and the hard-hit rate is 27.3%, a great thing to see with strikeout upside. The swinging-strike rate is an eye-popping 17.9% which would be fourth in the majors over a larger sample size. The righty sits at 96 MPH on his fastball but the strikeout star to this point is the slider with six of 11 strikeouts. It possesses a 54.2% whiff rate and just a .225 wOBA. The Mets are just 20th against that pitch and Oviedo whiffs both sides of the plate at least 27.3%. Color me intrigued. 

Andrew Heaney – He did us wrong last time out but that doesn’t change the matchup for this spot. Tampa is over 31% in the K rate to lefty pitching, which speaks to the upside for Heaney. The Rays are average against the curveball and Heaney has a 43.8% whiff rate on the said pitch. Heaney has a 3.00 xFIP and 3.69 FIP, which sport a big gap between the 5.25 ERA. The K rate is a massive 35.1% and that is 10th in the league among starters with at least 20 IP. There’s really no reason why we can’t use Heaney tonight, even if there is never that trust factor with him. 

Starting Rotation 5.5 – Out of Play 

Chris Bassitt – The game log watcher might be tempted as he’s exceeded 21 DK for three straight starts. However, the Tigers, Orioles, and Rays aren’t exactly a gauntlet for opposing pitchers. Bassitt is a totally solid pitcher with a 24.4% K rate and 45.8% ground ball rate but I’m not in love with the price. The 12.1% swinging-strike rate promises potential as well, but perhaps we wait until he faces a better matchup. 

Jordan Montgomery – It’s funny to see his price stay relatively stagnant after we talked about Singer. Montgomery has a 22% K rate but the FIP of 4.87 isn’t totally encouraging. Houston is slightly above average against the main pitch for Montgomery in the changeup and he’s giving up a .340 wOBA, .791 OPS, and a 2.25 HR/9 to the right side of the plate. 

Marcus Stroman – I’m out at this price tag. I love Stro as a pitcher but when the absolute ceiling strikeout game (eight last time out) generates 24.9 DK, that’s not exactly great. Even if Stroman keeps up the 20.4% K rate he has going right now, the salary is high. I’m not chasing a ceiling game from a ground ball pitcher. 

Luis Garcia – I generally won’t run to play pitchers with under 35 IP in the majors in Yankee Stadium, as the Yanks are heating up. To his credit, the wOBA to RHH is just .223 but the fly ball of 55.2% is scary as all get out. The 14.8% swinging-strike rate and 24.7% K rate leave me interested….in a different spot. 

Ryan Yarbrough – I don’t have anything all that bad to say about Yarbrough as he carries a 4.32 xFIP and 18.1% K rate. We talked last night about why the Angels aren’t that scary of a matchup to lefties but there’s not much to sink our teeth into here. I’d rather just slide down further in salary. 

Chase Anderson – Milwaukee is whiffing at a top 10 rate to lefties, but they also are top-eight in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS, and OBP. The K rate is under 20% while the walk rate is over 10% and I can’t find much reason to go here. It’s not like he’s a ground ball machine at 36.4% either. 

Robbie Ray – I’d love to play him as he’s been much better this season but it’s just too scary. The ERA is 2.78 but the FIP and the xFIP are both over 4.30 and he’s sporting a strand rate of 93.5%. The K rate is under 22% which is a fairly big shift from him. His slider has seen a major shift as it had 33 strikeouts last year and just one this year. His four-seam has gained 2 MPH on it and is generating a .260 wOBA but only a 22% whiff rate. I’m not exactly buy-in the upside against the A’s with more limited K upside than we’re used to with Ray. 

Erick Fedde – I’m not playing him but I’m approaching the Braves with some slight caution. His cutter has been a good weapon for him and he’s using it almost 29% of the time. On 17 BBE, it’s only given up a .110 wOBA and a .125 slug. It’s the fourth-ranked cutter in the majors right now. His career K rate is 16.4% but this season it’s 25.8%, which is wildly out of character. Fedde has also been better to RHH this year with a .260 wOBA and a 30.6% K rate. It’s interesting to note that he has distinct home/road splits. His IP have been almost evenly split but through 116 at home, the ERA is 5.97. On the road throughout 100.1 IP, the EA is 3.95. 

Max Fried – There has been a three-week layoff due to injury and Fried is sporting a 6.29 FIP and 4.19 xFIP. The HR/9 is 2.45 and the ground ball rate went from 53% last year to 41.5% this year in 11 IP. I truly believe we need to see something before we can trot him out there, especially against a Nationals lineup that can smack lefties. 

Casey Mize – The FIP is 5.51, the K rate is under 18%, the barrel rate is 11%, and both sides are over a .310 wOBA. Lefties are crushing him for a .423 mark, a .992 OP, and a 2.38 HR/9. I’m not rolling him out against the Red Sox. 

Hyeon-Jong Yang – We have a 33-year old pitcher with only 8.2 IP under his belt. So far, the K rate is 15.2% but the hard-hit rate is under 15%. He’s held 24 righties faced to a .196 wOBA but we’re not sure if he can throw more than 75 pitches and the Twins can maul lefty pitchers. 

Lewis Thorpe – Another lefty with virtually no experience, Thorpe has 49 IP with a 5.88 ERA. The xFIP is 4.91 so I don’t think he’s been totally unlucky either. Sure, the Rangers represent a solid matchup for lefty pitchers but Thorpe has both sides of the plate over a .380 wOBA across his career. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.5 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.3

We’re back in action for a 10 game slate on Monday and it’s an interesting slate. We have some studs that aren’t in the most ideal spots and a team’s top pitching prospect making his debut. The mid-range looks questionable as well so let’s dig into the Starting Rotation 5.3 and see who we like for this slate to find the green! 

Starting Rotation 5.3 – Main Targets 

Tyler Glasnow ($10,300 DK/$10,800 FD) 

It’s not a very bold statement to say we don’t normally attack the Angels offense, but I’m not sure another pitcher on this slate has the same style of upside that Glasnow does on the slate. It is true that the Angels only whiff 21.2% to righty pitching, which is the third-best mark in baseball. It’s also true that Glasnow has elite stuff and can navigate any offense in the league. Even his worst start against the Blue Jays was still 19 DK and it was one poor inning. Glasnow is sixth in K rate overall at 39.2% and all three of his pitches have a 32.9% whiff rate or higher. The walk rate of 7.7% would be the second-best mark of his career, which is helping the WHIP stay right at 0.80. It’s great for the Angels to be ranked highly against the slider but good luck with this –

Especially when the next pitch can be this one –

Glasnow is carrying a 1.69 ERA into this start and the 1.69 FIP/2.53 xFIP combo would suggest that’s pretty much how he’s pitched so far. Perhaps his best trait after the strikeout upside is hitters are not squaring him up. The barrel rate is under 8% and the hard-hit rate is just 21.1%. That’s when hitters make contact because his 16.6% swinging-strike rate is also sixth in baseball. Neither side of the plate is a weakness for him and I have no real fears about Glasnow even in the matchup. I firmly believe he’s one of the top pitchers in baseball and am willing to play him in any format. 

Adam Wainwright ($8,000 DK/$7,200 FD) 

This pick should make for a fun day in Discord as I’m sure Brian won’t have anything to say about me potentially picking on his Mets. I have to point out that Wainwright does need to come off the IL. That is expected, as he’s not tested positive for Covid to this point after a family member tested positive. Waino being the second pitcher in the main write-up also tells you that this SP2 spot could potentially be tricky tonight because this isn’t a pitcher I get along with. Metrics-wise, this spot lines up well for him. It’s in St. Louis which helps right off the hop. The Mets only have two hitters (J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil) who are over a 1.0 rating against the curve. Wainwright has also been better to lefties with a .270 wOBA, .600 OPS, and a 29.5% K rate. The Mets are projected to roll out five and the pitcher’s spot, so keep an eye on the opposing lineup. This is from late last season, but my goodness this is the perfect illustrator of what the curve does when the bender is on point –

I also like the Mets ranking sixth in ground ball rate to this point, as Waino generates a ground ball rate of 45.7%. His 11.4% swinging-strike rate would be the best of his career, as would the 31.6% CSW. The curve is really the key to his arsenal. It has a 37.2% whiff rate and the cutter has actually been quite poor with a .457 slugging and .450 wOBA allowed so far. That’s always a little worrisome because if the feel for the curve isn’t there, this could get ugly. Still, what we have to go on is what’s on paper, and the Mets whiff almost 24% of the time to righty pitching. 

Shohei Ohtani ($7,600 DK/$8,900 FD)

Ohtani may not wind up being an option for us, as he was hit by a pitch yesterday and the elbow is sore. If he starts, I’m playing him. DK still has him under $8,000 and he’s going to have a start sooner or later that could break the slate. In his last two starts, he’s scored 18 and 21 DK points. In the last start, he gave up four runs and only threw 75 pitches, and still crossed 21 DK points. When he’s allowed to throw more pitches and he figures things out as far as control, 30 DK is honestly not out of the question. If he qualified, his 37.1% K rate would be seventh in all of baseball. Yes, he’s walking an insane amount of hitters at 21% and yet the WHIP is only 1.39. I’ve seen some folks dismiss Ohtani on the mound and I don’t think they realize how close he could be for a massive score. The 12.6% swinging-strike rate is more than enough and the 30% CSW is nothing to sneer at either. 

My largest concern is the splits as Ohtani is worse to lefty hitters, with a 26.5% K rate and a .322 wOBA allowed. I still believe in him and one of the main reasons is the splitter. Check out this feature from mlb.com to read up more on it.

When he pitched in 2018, the pitch gave up a .036 average across 59 plate appearances. In 20 PA this season, it has not given up a single hit and has an absurd 73.9% whiff rate. That’s not a typo. That pitch also has 18 of his 23 strikeouts, so to say it’s his putaway pitch is an understatement. The salary is simply too low for the upside, as he’s demonstrated the past two starts while not even pitching all that well. 

Daniel Lynch ($4,000 DK) 

To the surprise of literally nobody, FD doesn’t know that Lynch is a person yet. They really need to hire someone who has even a slight knowledge of MLB prospects. I’m going to be interested to see if the masses flock to Lynch and I lean yes. Listen, rookie pitchers with no innings above A+ ball can be a bit of a mystery bag. There’s no guarantee how he reacts to his first big league action. What we know is he’s $4,000. There are SEVENTY hitters more expensive than him. As long as he scores 6-8 DK, it could be relatively worth it with a Coors Field game. Playing Glasnow and Lynch together leaves you $4,462 per hitter. Talk about playing whoever you want. 

Oh, and did I mention this isn’t just some pitcher who’s looking for a cup of coffee in the majors? Lynch is the 24th ranked prospect in all of baseball, according to MLBPipeline.com. Baseball America has him ranked as number seven for pitchers and 21st overall. He’s a 6’6″ lefty that is sitting roughly 95 MPH on his fastball and he can crank it up to 99 MPH. He backs that up with a very good slider, a curve, and a developing changeup. Cleveland may only whiff 20.2% of the time to lefties but it’s not like we need insane strikeout upside here. The only category they aren’t in the bottom 10 offensively is ISO, which also encourages me. I’m hoping to get a better look at him through the day and will add anything that comes up. I’m ready to play him in all formats. 

Starting Rotation 5.3 – In Play 

Walker Buehler – With a $4,000 pitcher I feel like my pool is going to be fairly concentrated tonight. For the most part, if Lynch kills me then so be it. It’s going to be hard to ruin too many lineups as long as he stays in the positives. Anyways, Buehler is always in play and he’s always one of my least favorites to actually use. I can’t explain it but he always burns me no matter my decision. He’s really talented, with a 25.4% K rate and both the FIP/xFIP are 3.30 or under. The barrel rate isn’t exceptional at over 12% but the Cubs are whiffing almost 29% of the time, fourth-most in MLB. They should also have five RHH and the pitcher’s spot, and Buehler is holding righties to a .200 wOBA and .194 average. Lefties are getting him for a .371 wOBA and a 2.08 HR/9. I’m likely to stay clear of this spot and perhaps use a Cubs lefty as a one-off, like Anthony Rizzo. 

Aaron Civale – Well in play, though I’m not sure how much I love paying most of the way up for pitchers with a K rate of 20.5%. What we do like is the 52.8% ground ball rate from Civale, although that aspect of the matchup could be tough. Kansas City is fourth in ground ball rate at just 39% and only six teams reside under 40%. Civale’s swinging-strike rate is back under 10% after clipping double-digits last season, along with just a 24.4% CSW. He’s not throwing any pitch over 27.1%m which is the four-seam so he can keep hitters off-balance. The 2.89 FIP and 23.7% K rate to righties could serve him well against the Royals, it’s just not a spot I’m overly excited about with the Royals having the sixth-best K rate to RHP, even when the pitcher can do this –

Steven Matz – He’s coming off a bad start but it’s interesting to note that only one hit was for extra bases, a three-run home run. The BABIP for that game was .438 and the previous high was .286 so I don’t think we get a repeat. The hard-hit rate would suggest that’s accurate since it’s only at 24%. One of the bigger concerns in his profile is the O-Contact%, which is how many times a hitter makes contact with a pitch out of the zone. It’s sitting at 49.2% so far when the career rate is 65.5%. Oakland is a powerful offense to lefty pitching with the third-ranked ISO but they also have the 15th OPS and the 23rd OBP. With a K rate over 25%, Matz has room for another solid game here. Interestingly, he’s been better on the road with how small the Jays “home” park is playing. The road ERA is only 2.60 through 17.1 IP so far, and it’ll be interesting to see if that continues for Matz. 

German Marquez – He wouldn’t be a main play, but I wouldn’t take him totally out of the pool. Surprisingly, Marquez has just a 3.13 ERA over 23 IP at home so far this season. Both the FIP and xFIP are under 3.90 as well, which deserves attention. Lefties have always crushed him but this is fascinating because across 57 lefty batters faced, Marquez has allowed a .255 wOBA and zero home runs. San Francisco is 18th or worse to his three main pitches and the swinging-strike rate is 12.6%, exactly in line with his past four seasons. You could honestly do worse. 

Dane Dunning – One of the first metrics I look at is how a pitcher does against righties when they play the Twins. The main power bats are righty and Dunning has struggled to that side of the plate a bit with a .314 average and a .315 wOBA but the BABIP to that side is .429. The K rate is higher at 28.3% and the FIP/xFIP is 2.18/2.12. Minnesota now has four lefties in the normal lineup and Dunning is sporting a ground ball rate of almost 51%. 83% of his pitches are four-seams or sliders and while the Twins are fourth against the fastball, they are 25th against the slider. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dunning have a solid game here, even though I likely don’t play him myself. 

Starting Rotation 5.3 – Out of Play

Dinelson Lamet – I’ve never been as angry as I am typing Lamet is out of play, but I’m struggling to see any reason to play him. If he was healthy, he’d be my number one pitcher on the board tonight. The issue is he had a UCL “strain” last year. Ok, fine. Lamet opted for rehab as the treatment, worked back, and pitched dominantly for two innings…before being removed for forearm tightness. Look, we certainly don’t know better than the Padre’s doctors. Fernando Tatis has proven that beyond doubt. Lamet is still full price and has all of two innings under his belt since hurting his UCL, which is the most “important” ligament in the elbow for pitchers. For those who may not know, that’s the ligament that relates to Tommy John surgery. There are just zero reasons to go after him unless you want 5% exposure in MME formats (100+ lineups). 

Adrian Houser – Playing Houser after a random seven strikeout game feels like chasing our tails, in honesty. Philly may strike out at a top 10 rate to RHP at 25.8% but still, Houser hasn’t even hit 19% for his K rate this season. He also only has one season over 20% which looks out of place against the rest of his career. If he qualified, his 59.7% ground ball rate would rank second in the majors but at his current salary, we do need more than ground balls to make it work. The swinging-strike rate is putrid at 6.5% and his highest whiff rate pitch is the slider, at 20%. He throws it just 7.7% of the time. 

Frankie Montas – Can I just start saying “he pitches against Toronto” and be done with it? If the said pitcher is not the absolute elite, I’m just not going to go after the Jays. I’m a Montas fan but you can’t argue that he’s elite. The K rate is under 22%, the FIP is 5.20, the HR/9 is 2.19, and the barrel rate is 14.8%. He’s also getting mauled by righties with a .421 wOBA, .313 average, 3.38 HR/9, and a puny 9.6% K rate. Give me all the Vlad Jr. and the righties from Toronto. 

Kenta Maeda – I’d love to say I had confidence in this being the get-right spot for Maeda and perhaps that happens. Texas does whiff at the highest rate to RHP and is the only team over 30% in that metric. However, they are also top-five against the slider and that’s the main pitch for Maeda. The bigger issue is that pitch is getting clobbered with a .386 average, .773 slugging, and .513 wOBA allowed so far. It’s also allowed four homers and the Rangers have two of the top 30 slider hitters in baseball, Adolis Garcia and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The K rate is under 18%, the FIP is 6.18, and the lefties have a .472 wOBA and a 2.92 HR/9. You’d have to be gutsy to use him by the metrics of this season. 

Aaron Sanchez – Sure, the Rockies lineup isn’t as dangerous as it used to be but Sanchez is still out for me. He’s capped at right about 80 pitches, is heading to Coors Field, and has only a 20% K rate. The 60.3% ground ball rate would lead the league if he qualified, which is nice for Coors. My issue is if we risk it for the biscuit in that environment, I want upside. Sanchez simply hasn’t given us a reason to suspect he has that. 

Vince Velasquez – I was honestly sort of tempted when I saw he’d face the Brewers but those hopes were dashed. Milwaukee is the third-ranked team against fastballs and Vinnie Velo is over 56% in usage on that particular pitch. It’s not fooling anyone with a .429 wOBA and a .565 slugging. Velasquez also has a FIP/xFIP combo over 5.10, a HR/9 of 2.92, a walk rate of 18.3%, and a fly ball rate over 51%. I can’t look past those many factors to get to his 30% K rate. 

Tyler Anderson – I’ve played him a few times this year, as the ERA is 3.38 and the 3.51 FIP says it’s pretty accurate. Anderson is throwing his cutter about 10% more and the wOBA on it has dropped by about 100 points to .273. The swinging-strike rate is 14% which is easily the career-high and the overall swing rate from opposing batters has jumped from 45.6% last year to 53.3% this year. The sad part is the Padres are a very tough matchup and can load up with RHH, as there should be at least five. Anderson has a .317 wOBA and a 1.35 HR/9 against that side of the plate so we’ll wait for his next turn. 

Kyle Hendricks – The Dodgers are one of the prime stacks of the night. Hendricks is sitting under 87 MPH on his sinker and four-seam and the latter is getting obliterated with a .500 average and .648 wOBA. The HR/9 is 3.97 and the FIP is 8.30. His swinging-strike rate is down 3% to just 8.8% and lefties absolutely are destroying him with a .485 average, .617 wOBA, 6.00 HR/9, and an 11.26 FIP. It’s scary to see a 90.9% strand rate to lefties because things could be even worse results-wise. 

Joey Lucchesi – If we were starved for value, I could possibly see it since the 6.75 ERA doesn’t jive with the 1.47 FIP. I will also say that the 37% K rate to righties through 27 hitters faced catches your eye, but the Cardinals are likely going to have a full lineup of righties. They are above average in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, OBP, and average. Six of eight hitters for the Cards have an ISO over .210 against righty fastballs, a pitch Lucchesi is throwing about 37% of the time. 

Dean Kremer – No, he likely doesn’t suffer from a .455 BABIP all year but the FIP is still 5.36 which is an issue. The HR/9 is 2.40 and the swinging-strike rate is under 10%. Both sides of the plate are over a .430 wOBA so it’s tough to construct a case for him here. 

Erik Swanson – We’ve seen 67.2 IP in the majors for him and he’s totaled a 2.66 HR/9, a 6.06 FIP, 11.6% barrel rate, 42.4% fly-ball rate, and a hard-hit rate over 35%. Lefties have got the better of him with a .363 wOBA and 2.97 HR/9. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.2

It’s Sunday and that means that this MLB slate can be a little wonky since some teams will utilize “Sunday lineups” and play some of their bench players. There are times when that can change how we feel about matchups but we’ll talk about things in the article as everyone is playing a normal lineup. There are 20 pitchers to get to for the day so let’s get rolling in the Starting Rotation 5.2 and set our foundation! 

Starting Rotation 5.2 – Main Targets 

Note – As of now, the Brewers have not announced a starter. It would be Corbin Burnes if he clears health protocols. If he does start, he’d be a top option for Starting Rotation 5.2 even against the Dodgers. The timeline wouldn’t fit him having Covid so we should feel comfortable if he takes the mound.

Max Scherzer ($9,700 DK/$12,000 FD) 

Over on DK, I would be stunned if Scherzer is not projected as the chalkiest pitcher on the slate. He’s under $10,000 which I think we can be sure has rarely happened these past few years. On FD, I think it’s a much livelier debate because there are some signs that Scherzer could be slowing down just a little bit. He’s only thrown 30 innings but the hard-hit rate is 40.8% and the career number has never been above 35.7%. Likewise, the fly ball rate is over 57% and the highest it has ever been is 47.9%. Hitters are squaring him up as well more frequently with a 12.7% barrel rate. Even the splits are weird as RHH have a .349 wOBA with a 3.14 HR/9. When metrics are this far out of whack, I turn to the pitch mix. 

There is a pitch that sticks out as the exact culprit. His four-seam is down about 1 MPH and he’s given up three bombs but he gave up seven last season across 62.1 IP. That’s right about the same ratio. The average, slugging, and wOBA are all better this season so far as well. Then we get to the slider, which has been an issue. It’s given up two home runs, compared to zero last season. The average is up but the slugging is .455 compared to .167 and the wOBA is .304 compared to .176. The whiff rate is about the exact same so it’s still a good pitch, but the Marlins do rate well against it so far. 

It’s not all bad, as Scherzer is at a 15.1% swinging-strike rate, which is 10th in baseball. He’s still got the goods more often than not –

Miami is also 10th in ground ball rate to righties so hopefully that limits some of Scherzer’s fly ball tendencies. One of the best ways for Scherzer to get back on track (so to speak) is to throw more first-pitch strikes. His career rate is 64.2% and this season is 58.6%, the lowest since his rookie season. It would help if hitters swung at more pitches outside of the zone too. His O-Swing% is down from 33% last year to 29.7%. That’s a sizable jump and I would bet the slider is hurting those ratios as well. The bottom line is Scherzer is still a great pitcher, but it could be time to temper expectations just a bit. I’m eating the chalk in cash and probably even single entry, but past that I don’t think it’s a bad play to get different. 

Lucas Giolito ($8,600 DK/$10,600 FD) 

Giolito is coming off a mediocre start but I have to put the blame almost entirely on manager Tony LaRussa. He came out for the seventh inning at 89 pitches and things seemed great. He then issued a walk on eight pitches, got a flyout on nine pitches, and then gave up a double. Most managers would be ready with the hook. The next pitch was dong and then LaRussa let him face two more hitters. There were zero reasons to let him go 114 pitches after being off the mound for over a week. He was mostly back to normal as it was and now gets a fantastic pitch data spot. 

It doesn’t hurt that Giolito is under $9,000 on DK and the xFIP is 3.16 compared to the 5.68 ERA. He’s also generating a swinging-strike rate of 14.6% so his stuff is working for the most part outside of the Boston start. Cleveland should send six lefties to the plate and that should work best for Giolito with a .250 wOBA, .192 average, 32.8% K rate, and a 2.56 FIP to that side of the plate. The changeup is still elite –

This might be the easiest it ever is to play Scherzer and Giolito together and we could be looking at 60 DK points if things go well for each pitcher in the Starting Rotation 5.2. 

Trevor Rogers ($7,900 DK/$10,200 FD)

Even though the matchup is on the tougher side, I can’t fathom why DK dropped Rogers in salary by $500 after scoring 27.9 DK points. Washington has the sixth-fewest plate appearances to lefties so far but they have done some serious work. They are top three in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Even though they are 13th in ISO, that’s not enough to knock Washington off the perch of an elite offense to lefties so far. The K rate is only 21.3% but Rogers sports a 34.9% K rate himself. He’s also given up just one barrel on the season across 109 batters faced, which is wildly impressive. 

Rogers has smoked the right side of the plate for a .217 wOBA, .156 average, a 35.6% K rate, and a 2.00 FIP. His four-seam has picked up velocity to 95 MPH on average with 28 of 38 strikeouts. It’s also going to help that Juan Soto is out of the lineup. He’s the second-highest ranked fastball hitter on the team and without him, Washington is 20th. I wouldn’t go there in cash but if the top two come in super popular, Rogers is a very legitimate pivot in GPP. I always tend to side with pitching ahead of offenses when said pitching can do this –

Tyler Mahle ($7,800 DK/$9,300 FD) 

Mahle is another pitcher that cannot be ignored on this slate at this price point. He may be putting things together with a 2.80 FIP, 3.48 xFIP, and a 1.75 ERA. On top of that, Mahle is sporting a 35.3% K rate with a 0.97 WHIP. There is a bit of a concern with the fly ball rate at 48.1% because of his HR.FB rate is 8%, which would easily be a career-low. With the Cubbies striking out over 29% of the time to righties, Mahle can get by if they aren’t making any contact. The four-seam is the key to success with a .146 average, .250 slugging, and a .260 wOBA. It’s also racked up 22 of 36 strikeouts with a 31.4% whiff rate. Even last year you could see how good the individual pitch was –

The top three fastball hitters for the Cubs are Kris Bryant, Jason Hayward, and Willson Contreras. After that, there is a steep drop in hitters that should worry us. Chicago can put out five righties, which could pose a small issue as they have a .365 wOBA but four of those five also whiff over 22% of the time and Javier Baez is pushing 40%. At the end of the day, the xFIP to both sides is under 3.70 so I’m not sweating things too much. Mahle isn’t the most trustworthy based on track record, but he shouldn’t be this cheap either. 

Starting Rotation 5.2 – In Play 

Christian Javier – Really, the only reason Javier didn’t get a full write-up is because of the salaries of Scherzer and Giolito. In a vacuum, Javier has been lights out through four starts with a 0.87 ERA and a 1.72 FIP. He’s yet to allow a home run and the K rate is 32.9%. The WHIP is 0.82 and his hard-hit rate is just 24.4%. The slider is super interesting. I mean, he got a swing on this one and it didn’t make it to the plate –

It’s jumped from 78.6 MPH on average last year to 81.2 MPH this year and it’s been pure filth. The whiff rate is 50% and it’s yielded a .050 average. Tampa is 28th against the slider which could set him up for a great start. The small concern is Javier is worse to lefties, as the wOBA is just .270 but the FIP is 2.38. His K rate drops to 25% but the Rays are 12th in K rate at 25.1%. 

Julio Urias – Call me crazy, but he’s the clear fourth option among the top four pitchers in salary (not counting Burnes, in which case Urias would be fifth). The talent is unmistakable but the results have been… not that great in three of five starts. In those three, Urias has scored under 14 DK points and given up a total of 10 earned runs. In his great starts, he’s given up just one with 17 strikeouts like this one –

The K rate for Urias is solid at 26.2% but not overwhelming compared to the other options up top. Milwaukee can bring out the best in strikeout upside to opposing pitchers but I definitely prefer others today. 

Jose Berrios – Someone with the talent level of Berrios is always in play, along with his 32.4% K rate, 10.9% swinging-strike rate, and 28.9% CSW. The Royals are 14th against the curve, which is the most-used pitch for Berrios. They also whiff only 23.6% of the time so there’s some question about his ceiling. I do really like the .194 wOBA, .156 average, no home runs allowed, 36% K rate, and 1.54 FIP to the right side of the plate. After three straight very average starts, I would imagine Berrios is not going to be popular at all today. 

Corey Kluber – I’m not personally playing him, but the spot can’t line up much better for him. The Tigers whiff at a top-two rate of 28.5% and Kluber sets up extremely well to the likely six lefties Detroit will use. He has a 24.4% K rate to that side of the plate and a .279 wOBA compared to a .419 mark to RHH. He’s leaning on a curve/cutter mix as his top two pitches and Detroit is 25th and 29th against those two pitches. He also generated 17 swings and misses last start, which is eye-opening. It’s a scary play and I would find the $500 for Giolito in 98/100 lineups, but with how Kluber stacks up against the weaknesses of the Tigers’ offense, I can’t take him off the board. 

Starting Rotation 5.2 – Out of Play 

Ian Anderson – I’m not thrilled but I would reluctantly leave Anderson out of the pool today. As long as the Jays are healthy, you can get used to the opposing pitcher not being in play. Anderson sports a 26.5% K rate which is fine, but not enough to warrant attacking Toronto in a hitter’s park. They were right about top 12 in OPS, ISO, slugging, and wOBA before George Springer came back. Perhaps Anderson can survive with his .218 wOBA to righties but I won’t be finding out myself. 

Zach Plesac – It has been tough sledding for Plesac this year with just a 16.5% K rate on the season. It continues a trend where it appears the 2020 season was an aberration instead of the normal we should expect from him. The swinging-strike rate is down to 11.4% and even though he’s likely better than the 5.81 ERA (the 4.02 FIP and 3.83 xFIP look much better), I’m still not interested in a K rate that’s not over 17%. I will say his 52.9% ground ball rate could come into play heavily since the Sox lead the league in ground ball rate to righties. 

Ross Stripling – He’s not confirmed for the Jays at this point and he will likely be on a fairly limited pitch count, which makes him an easy fade for Rogers and possibly Mahle. 

Rich Hill – Mr. Hill was not nice to me last time out as I stacked A’s hitters and he whiffed 10. The start before that, Hill was terrible when I played him. This time, I’m on the side of stacking against him again. Houston is top-four against the fastball and Hill throws it over 41% of the time. That pitch has a .345 average, .759 slugging, and a .466 wOBA given up with just a 19.6% whiff rate. If the curve doesn’t do a lot of the work, the Astros should handle Hill and his 3.55 wOBA and 2.45 HR/9 to righty hitters. 

Garrett Richards – Chasing a 33 DK point game from a pitcher that has a 20.2% K rate, a 1.61 WHIP, and an 11.9% walk rate seems like a terrible idea. The Rangers strike out an awful lot but I simply can’t do it. Richards needs to show something else for me to buy into anything. 

Carlos Martinez – He’s fine I suppose but just not the sale of pitcher that I play. The K rate is just 14.4% and perhaps his best metric is the lefty splits. LHH have a .244 wOBA and Martinez has a 2.34 FIP to that side of the plate. He is also generating a hard contact rate under 30% but when a pitcher heavily relies on run prevention and not strikeouts, things can go south in a hurry. 

Trevor Williams – He’s a righty who is throwing a fastball almost 60% of the time and it’s not overwhelming at 91 MPH. It’s giving up a .295 average, .371 wOBA, and a .461 slugging. Oh, the Reds are the top fastball team in the league. Both sides of the plate are over .300 for the wOBA and I’m out on Williams. 

Mike Foltynewicz – Sorry Stix. You’re a goat but I can’t do it against Boston. Folty has a 4.23 xFIP but the 2.63 HR/9, 43.9% fly-ball rate, and 12.2% barrel rate just don’t compute here. 

Brad Keller – He has a 5.07 FIP, 5.17 xFIP, a 2.1% K-BB%, a massive 2.28 WHIP, and an 8.6% swinging-strike rate. Sporting a .465 wOBA to the righties when you’re facing the righty-heavy Twins seems like a terrible idea. 

Will Crowe – There’s only a 13 inning sample size but Crowe has a 3.46 HR/9, a 1.5 K-BB%, 2.38 WHIP, and a 6.49 xFIP. No thank you. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.2 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.1

The Saturday slate is split up as usual and DK has the better game selection for the afternoon slate, which is pretty normal. We’ll be doing the notes-based approach to the afternoon slate and then diving more in-depth into the six-game evening slate. With a total of 22 pitchers from start to finish, let’s get rolling on Starting Rotation 5.1 and start laying our foundation for success! 

Starting Rotation 5.1 – Afternoon Options 

In Play 

Lance Lynn – There is always some small concern in the back of my mind when pitchers come back from arm injuries. Now, it does help that in Lynn’s case that he could have returned right away after the minimum 10-day stint on the IL so I don’t believe there is reason to worry much. Lynn uses a variety of fastballs and Cleveland is 23rd against four-seams, which is the most-used pitch from Lynn. Even though it’s last year, it’s still fun to watch –

I don’t fully buy into Lynn’s 35.1% K rate but even last year’s 25.9% isn’t a terrible number. The hard-hit rate is only 22.9% for Lynn and the splits are pretty even to each side of the plate. He’s easily the best “on paper” option on DK since Cleveland whiffs 25.7% of the time, while FD offers an alternative in Jack Flaherty. Given the difference in salary, I expect Flaherty to be much more popular on that site. 

Danny Duffy – So the matchup is certainly less than ideal but Duffy has been so good that I don’t think I could leave him out of the pool. Minnesota is still whiffing 25.1% to lefty pitching and Duffy has a 29.7% K rate on the season. He’s throwing the fastball more and it’s picked up velocity, sitting at just about 94 MPH. In total, 15 of his 24 strikeouts have come from that pitch and even though the Twins are fourth against that pitch, Duffy could still handle the lineup. They are 27th against the slider, which could help Duffy keep them off-balance. He’s also been at his best to RHH with a .228 wOBA but I would only use him in GPP since the Twins are built to be lefty mashers. 

Jesus Luzardo – He did just face this team and posted a very respectable start, and the Orioles statistically do not look imposing to lefty pitching. They’re top 10 in K rate and below average in our offensive categories. It’s also interesting to note that the Orioles are the worst team against the changeup. Luzardo doesn’t throw it a ton at just 18.6% but it’s sporting the best wOBA allowed of any pitch, under .250. The 26.1% K rate is nice for this salary range and his xFIP is only 4.05 compared to a 5.40 ERA. The .343 BABIP certainly looks out of place for him. Through his 15.2 IP at home, the ERA is only 4.02 and his K rate shoots up to 29.9%. Certainly, it’s not a large sample but it’s interesting to see if that continues. 

Jameson Taillon – I find myself gravitating towards him. The ERA will freak you out at 6.23 but the 3.78 xFIP shows there is a fairly large gap between performance so far and the results. The BABIP is .348 and the fly ball rate is 52% but the K rate is 28.4% and the walk rate is just 2.7%. We all were reminded last night how the Tigers are strikeout machines.

The wOBA to LHH looks like a major sticking point at .399 since the Tigers can throw out six lefties. However, the BABIP to that side is .474 and the xFIP is 2.85. Even better for Taillon is the 33.3% K rate to that side of the plate. It’s not a perfect play but the upside is palpable and this is the easiest matchup the righty has had thus far. 

Matt Harvey – We’ll stick right in this game and it could be time to get on board the Matt Harvey Train again. You’re not likely to get a lot of strikeouts but Harvey is throwing a four-seam/sinker combo about 62% of the time. Oakland is 25th against the fastball this season and should trot out six RHH. If you remember the last time we had Harvey, the wOBA looks awful at .363 to that side of the plate but the BABIP is .400. The FIP of 2.96 and xFIP of 3.36 tell a different story. The K rate also jumps up to 21.1% and Oakland is pushing 25% as a team in whiff rate. The true factor will never be there with Harvey at this point, but the metrics make sense again. 

Jose Urquidy – He’s frankly not super interesting to me at his salary but on a short slate he’s certainly in play. Urquidy is using the fastball/slider combo at about 77% of the time so far but only getting a 19.5% K rate. Tampa has almost a 25% K rate and is right in the middle of the league in the offensive categories. With Urquidy leaning on the fastball 55% of the time, it’s not great to see Tampa in the top-eight against that pitch. To his advantage, LHH have struggled so far with a .278 wOBA, .209 average, and a 24.5% K rate. I likely end up elsewhere but the matchup could certainly be a lot worse. 

Out of Play 

Josh Fleming – Much like Ryan Yarbrough last night, I just don’t like playing lefties when the Astros offense is healthy as they are right now. Maybe Fleming gets through this game with his ground ball rate of 56.8% but the 13.8% K rate doesn’t offer much comfort. The 4.44 xFIP compared to the 1.23 ERA doesn’t scream he’s a play we should like either, frankly. Houston is fifth against the fastball and Fleming is using it about 48% of the time. I’ll give the lefty credit for generating a .211 wOBA to righties but that could end in a hurry today. 

Spencer Turnbull – The Yankee hitters are waking up quickly, so I won’t go there myself. The fly ball tendencies (48.1%) are scary although I do have to say Turnbull has always been better to RHH, and that’s the case early. They have a .168 wOBA compared to the .311 wOBA for the lefties. 

Triston McKenzie – I really want to put him in play because I think the talent level is excellent, but the metrics simply won’t allow it at this point. I’ll put the caveat that things could change for him quickly but he’s been a bit of a mess so far this season. The FIP/xFIP combo are both over 5.10, the HR/9 is 2.16 and the walk rate is unreal at 18.9%. The fly balls have to really worry you at 61.1% but there are a couple of things that could save him. First, the White Sox continue to lead the league in ground ball rate to righty pitching and they lead by 4.1%. It’s not a close race right now. 

Secondly, despite some pretty apparent struggles, McKenzie does have a K rate over 31% and the swinging strike rate is 13.3%, up from last season. The biggest issue so far is the fastball. It has a .402 wOBA and a .487 slugging allowed. It’s down to 91 MPH but McKenzie also has 13 strikeouts with it. Chicago is eighth against the fastball, which is tough for McKenzie. He does have a .249 wOBA to RHH (and a .485 mark to LHH) so I don’t think I’d play him. It is not the easiest call because things could change for him very quickly. At some point, pitchers with stuff like this tend to figure it out and the K rate beckons –

Luis Castillo – It will bite me on a slate, but I refuse to play Castillo until we see some sign of life from him. The sinker continues to just get obliterated with a .500 average, .885 slugging, and a .611 wOBA. You can’t trust a pitcher who throws that pitch almost 22% of the time. The wOBA for the Chicago lineup against righty sinkers isn’t exactly encouraging for him either. 

Matt Shoemaker – There’s nothing good to be had about his 5.11 xFIP, 2.29 HR/9, 16.1% K rate, and the 9.7% swinging-strike rate. My lone fear about playing Royals is Shoemaker has controlled RHH to the tune of a .231 wOBA and a 0.79 HR/9. Even then, the BABIP to that side is .161 and the xFIP is 5.01. 

Patrick Corbin – He has one good start out of four and is still sporting an 8.36 FIP, 17.1% K rate, and a 12.2% walk rate. RHH are tagging him for a .505 wOBA, 1.200+ OPS, 4.50 HR/9, and a 10.17 FIP. I’ll head right back to some Marlins hitters. 

Paul Campbell – He’s likely limited to 3-4 innings by all accounts, which isn’t great. My larger issue is the fact that he’s never had a K rate above 20.5% once he’s hit A-level baseball. That doesn’t lead me to think we should take the chance, even at the salary. 

Zach Davies – He rolls into this start with (still) more walks than strikeouts, a 6.24 xFIP, a 7.3% swinging-strike rate, and a fastball that’s under 88 MPH. No thank you, and if he beats me, he beats me on this one. 

Starting Rotation 5.1 – Main Slate 

Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,700 DK/$9,500 FD)

We have a fun slate for pitching at the top where there’s not an “ace” in the exact sense, but quite a few starters that could produce ace-level stats. For me, it’s starting with E-Rod and I assumed he’d be over $9,000 in this spot. The face DK hasn’t put him up there helps us out, since he gets to face the Rangers. They sit 12th in K rate to lefty pitching and are bottom-six in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. E-Rod is pitching to a 29.2% K rate with just a 2.2% walk rate, which is quite impressive. He’s 13th in K-BB% (and we have one pitcher higher in that metric on this slate) and is keeping the hard contact under 25%. If Rodriguez kept these metrics up for the season, it would be a career year for him. The xFIP has never been below 3.90 for him and right now it’s sitting at 2.82. Price included on DK, he’s my favorite option. 

Zac Gallen ($8,900 DK/$9,000 FD

Gallen is really nipping at the heels of E-Rod for my favorite option on the slate and he may have found his rhythm last start, posting 34 DK points against the Braves offense. He’s crazy talented and has a 0.54 HR/9 through his first 16.2 IP to go with a 29.9% K rate. The walk rate is high at 11.9% but coming off an injury I’m no overly worked up about that. The 12.5% swinging-strike rate is dead in line with his career average and Gallen has been throwing the fastball more this season. 

In 2020, the four-seam was only thrown 39% and so far in 2021, it’s at 51%. I can’t blame him since it has half of his 20 strikeouts and just a .130 slug, .218 wOBA, and a 27.5% whiff rate.

To the surprise of nobody, the Rockies offense continues to be hideous on the road to righties. They’re whiffing at a top-six rate of 28.4% and are bottom 10 in our offensive categories. Both sides of the plate are at a .223 wOBA or lower and Gallen could be the most popular option on the slate. Pairing him with Rodriguez already looks like a ton of fun. 

Dustin May ($9,800 DK/$9,700 FD)

It may give some pause to see the Brewers ranked so high against the fastball but not too many move like this –

I will also admit to some bats here – I’ve always been on the wrong end of May. If I fade him, he scores 29.7 DK points and whiffs 10. If I play him, he scores 13 against the Rockies in LA. Still, he is higher than E-Rod in K-BB% and sits sixth in the majors in that category. May is also ninth in total K rate at 37.2%. That’s a monstrous jump from the 19.6% last year but his stuff is so nasty, I’m inclined to think it’s a real jump. The swinging-strike rate going from 8.4% to 14.1% would back me up on that as well. Milwaukee sitting as a top-five K rate team to RHP seems like just the right spot for May to continue his K rate prowess. 

Looking at that pitch mix gives us some ideas about why May has exploded in K rate. He’s throwing the sinker 11% less and he bumped the curve usage by about 9%. That curve has been filth with 14 strikeouts (no other pitch has more than seven), no hits allowed, and a 46.2% whiff rate.

Seeing the Brewers rank next to last against that pitch is heaven. The Crew might throw out five lefties and that’s just going to play into May’s strength as he sports a 45.5% K rate to that side. Like I said, the top of the pitching pool tonight is a blast. 

Brandon Woodruff ($10,100 DK/$9,200 FD)

Oh, look, we have Woodruff on the slate as well! He’s sitting 11th in xFIP at 2.87 and the funny part of that is, that mark is still the third-worst on the slate behind E-Rod and May. Woodruff has not allowed a homer yet and has a 1.5% barrel rate, second-best in baseball. Not surprisingly, the hard-hit rate is 27.7% and his K rate has sustained over 31% like it did last season. It needs to be said that the Dodgers haven’t exactly been scary yet either, at least offensively. They rank 23rd in OPS, 25th in ISO, 21st in WOBA, and 22nd in wRC+. Woodruff also has 98 MPH heat on the black of the plate –

The lineup is much more talented than that but Woodruff is no slouch. Neither side of the plate sits above a .180 wOBA or a .149 average, which is exactly what you want to see. The K rate for the Dodgers is only 22.9% but Woodruff is more than capable of getting through this lineup. I wonder if the DK salary keeps him fourth out of the big four. If that’s the case, we have to pay attention in GPP especially. 

Starting Rotation 5.1 – In Play 

Griffin Canning – It seems odd that he lands here, but the metrics are fascinating. The ERA is 8.40 but the xFIP is 3.78, which is just an absurd gap. His HR/FB rate is an astonishing 35.3% and his career rate for context is 14.4%. The hard contact is 25.6% and he’s got the fly ball rate under 40%. Canning has never posted a K rate higher than the 25.8% he’s sitting at, nor has he been all that close to a swinging-strike rate over 15%. He’s throwing the slider almost 41% of the time and recording a 43.9% whiff rate on it. Something has to give here, but don’t play him in anything but GPP. 

Starting Rotation 5.1 – Out of Play 

Blake Snell – You can make a case that he’s in play but I will disagree when he’s more expensive than Gallen and E-Rod. Is Snell talented? You bet. Will he ever pitch six innings again? That’s sort of a question, as he’s yet to achieve that feat once this year. The 33% K rate is excellent but the 12.8% walk rate is ninth in baseball. Not only does that dock points, but it also drives up the pitch count and Snell hasn’t thrown more than 95 pitches this season. The Giants are 0.1% away from leading the league in walk rate to lefties and are top 12 in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, and wOBA. 

Charlie Morton – With Toronto sitting just 19th in K rate and healthy, finding the ceiling for Morton is going to be tough. Pitching in the Blue Jays “home” stadium doesn’t do anyone any favors either. Even scarier for Morton would be if his splits continue in this one. RHH have a .315 wOBA which is the worse side of the plate. The Jays are also 19th in ground ball rate, which could negate one of Morton’s strengths. 

Anthony DeSclafani – I guess technically Tony Disco is “in play” but I can’t fathom not finding a few hundred more for Gallen or E-Rod. The Padres are not the Rockies on the road, so the matchup is a lot tougher. He’s started five games and almost a full third of his 30 strikeouts came against the Rockies in the last start. DeSclafani is another player who has only been over 90 pitches twice all season, which is a small concern. I do have to give him the .162 wOBA, .119 average, and zero home runs given up to righties. That’s what I’d prefer when facing the Padres but I will still happily play the other two pitchers, even in GPP. 

Austin Gomber – He’s leading baseball in walk rate at over 18% and Arizona is first in wOBA, ISO, OPS, and slugging to lefties while walking the most and striking out the sixth-least. 

Jordan Lyles – We don’t play 6.09 FIP’s, 18.5% K rates, 2.63 HR/9, and 40.7% hard-hit rates. 

Ljay Newsome – He’s not thrown more than 54 pitches, so you’d have to expect 70-75 is the limit. While he’s pitched well out of the bullpen, starting is totally different. I’m intrigued by the 24.4% K rate but not enough to take the risk when the Angels are on the other side. 

Tommy Milone – His last three appearances have been 2.1 IP, 2.1 IP, and 1 IP. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 4.28

We get another double-digit slate tonight with 10 games and one very clear-cut ace at the top. Things get pretty fun after that as we have some pitchers in fantastic spots at some good salaries, which is always what we’re looking for. We have plenty of work ahead of us in the Starting Rotation 4.28 so let’s get to work laying the foundation for green screens! 

Starting Rotation 4.28 – Main Targets 

Tyler Glasnow ($10,300 DK/$10,800 FD) 

When you’re giving up five runs and still can score 19.3 DK points, you can bet that the interest remains high in that next start. Glasnow is fifth in the league in K rate at 39.7% and his fastball is ranked second in FanGraphs rating. Considering he throws it 55% of the time and the A’s are one of the worst teams against it, that’s a very nice checkmark for Glasnow. That pitch also shares the strikeout lead for him with the curve at 21 each, while the slider only has four. He’s getting a 32.8% whiff rate on the pitch and only a .249 xwOBA against it. The 16% swinging-strike rate is also the highest rate of Glasnow’s career and the hard-hit rate of just 19.7% is second in MLB. 

Oakland is about mid-pack in K rate to righties at 24.7% and in fairness, Glasnow is a little worse to RHH. They have a .229 wOBA, .143 average, and a 39.4% K rate with a FIP and xFIP combo below 3.00. Yes, that’s the worse side of the plate for him and illustrates just how good Glasnow has been. On this slate, he’s a clear step above everyone else and I would have to assume he’s chalk in cash games. Who doesn’t want to play this guy?

Carlos Rodon ($9,800 DK/$11,000 FD) 

I say Glasnow is a clear step up, but I wouldn’t say it’s a big step because Rodon is on fire to start and is in the best possible spot. Detroit is 29th or 30th in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ while sporting the highest K rate to lefties at 34.2%. It’s not even an exaggeration to say the spot for Rodon is THE best in baseball. Some of Rodon’s metrics are skewed by a no-hitter that was nearly a perfect game but the K rate is still 32.4%. The walk rate is a touch high at 10.8% but goes which team is 29th in walk rate? Survey says….the Detroit Tigers! 

I do know Rodon has some type of regression coming. That’s not a hot take or anything with a 0.47 ERA and he’s never come close to the 16% swinging strike rate he’s posting right now. He’s picked up about 2 MPH on the four-seam and slider and those two pitches have every single strikeout for Rodon. It should also be noted that the xSLG and the xwOBA for the fastball are .503 and .358, which isn’t exactly great. Still, with the Tigers on the other side, I believe Rodon has at least one more start to be worth this salary and we can certainly explore the double ace route. 

Alex Wood ($8,300 DK/$8,800 FD)

Wood only has two starts so his metrics need to be taken with that grain of salt, but he’s been outstanding so far. The K rate is 27.5%, the WHIP is 0.42, the hard contact is 17.9%, and the swinging-strike rate is 13.9%. If he qualified, Wood would lead the majors in ground ball rate at 63% and the sinker shouldn’t scare us. Only Trevor Story and C.J. Cron have wOBA’s over .330 and ISO’s over .150 in the potential Rockies lineup. Cron especially looks appealing with a .611 ISO and a .741 wOBA (and crushes lefty sliders), but I’m not going to move off a pitcher because of one or two hitters. 

He’s not going to continue to have a .111 BABIP but he’s dominating RHH so much that I’m not overly concerned the regression hits all at once. Through 33 hitters faced, they have a .075 wOBA, .063 average, and a 33.3% K rate. The FIP and xFIP are both under 1.75 to that side of the plate as well. The Rockies are no better than slightly below average in any category we value outside of Denver against lefties, so Wood likely picks up some traction through the day. 

German Marquez ($7,500 DK/$8,200 FD)

Marquez is always a fun pitcher to use when the Rockies hit the road, and he’s pitched well to start the season despite four of his first five starts coming in Coors. His issue has always been lefty hitters which would lead you to think he’s not the best play tonight. Realistically, there is some risk but the Giants could be without Mike Yastrzemski, which would be a big blow to the offense. The Giants are sporting the second-highest K rate to righties so far at 28.4% and Marquez is holding LHH to a .219 average, .313 wOBA, and a 22.7% K rate. His curve has been doing some serious work with 18 strikeouts already and a 50.9% whiff rate. San Fran looks solid against that pitch but looking at it individually, there’s only one hitter to worry about. 

Brandon Belt has a 3.8 rating against the pitch while no other Giant is over 0.7. For context, that leaves Belt as the fourth-best curveball hitter in baseball, so keep him in mind in all formats. Marquez is sporting the highest ground ball rate in baseball among qualified starters at 59.7% so even when he’s not striking hitters out, they’re not getting the ball in the air. His 12.8% swinging-strike rate is right in line with career numbers and Marquez has upside at this salary. This game could turn low-scoring if both pitchers are on their game. 

Zack Greinke ($9,400 DK/$9,000 FD)

I hesitate to even use pitch data because Greinke will throw anything at any point and doesn’t always sit around the same speeds. He legitimately went sidearm on a random pitch –

Still, it is pretty solid for him on paper as the Mariners don’t hit his pitch types all that well. The last time Greinke saw them, he spun an absolute gem of an eight-inning, four-hit ball and scored 31.6 DK points. I doubt that happens again and the K rate for Greinke is still pretty low a 17.1%. I always worry about K rates that low at this salary because you’re going to need eight innings out of him to pay off. The 8.4% swinging-strike rate is the lowest it’s been since 2011 and that’s a worry as well. Seattle does strikeout over 25% of the time so I don’t want to totally ignore Greinke, but I don’t believe he’ll be a priority for me tonight. I will also admit some bias here as I never seem to get Greinke right. 

Ryan Weathers ($7,300 DK/$6,300 FD) 

Weathers has now pitched in four games and earned some leash in the rotation for the Padres. Pitching to a 0.59 ERA with a 29.6% K rate through 15.1 IP tends to do that. He’s definitely dancing through some raindrops a little bit with a 43.8% hard-hit rate and a fly ball rate over 40% but he does have a 95 MPH fastball and a decent slider to match. Being the youngest starter in the majors isn’t easy, and neither is facing the Dodgers but here he is. 

This is a tough matchup. Arizona whiffs only 21.7% of the time to lefty pitching, not to mention they rank inside the top-three in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. It’s not for the faint of heart. Weathers has faced 31 righties and held them to a .184 wOBA, .074 average, and is whiffing them at a 32.3% rate. If you’re brave enough to play him, you’re banking on pedigree and poise from the young man. He’s also got his pitch count up to 89, so if everything is going well six innings is not out of the question. 

Starting Rotation 4.28 – In Play 

Steven Matz – He was close to getting a full write-up but I’m not sure how much I play him with Wood cheaper on DK. Matz gets another tough assignment tonight against the Nationals but he’s pitched so well so far he needs to be in the player pool. His change could be a big weapon with the second-most strikeouts and Washington ranking 24th against that pitch. The 27.2% K rate for Matz is easily his best in his career and the Nationals as a whole don’t profile well against his sinker, which is the main pitch. Only Josh Bell, Starlin Castro, and Victor Robles have an ISO over .250 but they all also have a ground ball rate over 51%. 

Alex Cobb – He hurt me last time but we have short memories around here. We all know the Rangers strike out a ton and still lead MLB in K rate to RHP. Texas is only 19th against the splitter this year and that pitch is the deal-breaker for Cobb. It has 15 of 21 strikeouts and Cobb has been nasty to LHH with a .226 wOBA, 32.1% K rate, and no home runs allowed. I sort of hope he slips through the cracks and makes for a solid GPP play. The 2.53 FIP and 2.35 xFIP tell a much different story than the 6.28 ERA. 

Cole Irvin – We all know that attacking the Rays with lefties can end one of two ways. Irvin has an 18.3% K rate which is a little low for my tastes but does at least generate a 40.6% ground ball rate. The CSW is just 23.3% and the Rays are a mixed bag against lefty sinkers and fastballs, which are the main two pitches for Irvin. He is holding RHH to a .264 wOBA which scuffling with the lefties at a .483 mark. Perhaps we can look to the Rays lefties for a one-off or mini-stack. 

Dean Kremer – Are we brave enough to go after Yankee hitters for a third straight game? Kremer could go full Matt Harvey here. He relies on the fastball 53% of the time and he throws right-handed, which is important. New York is getting owned by righties and Kremer features a 3.62 xFIP contrasted with his 6.75 ERA. His walk rate is scary at 12% but the K rate is 28%, the fly ball rate is only 30%, the hard-hit rate is 26.7%, and the CSW is over 28%. These aren’t objectively poor numbers. Much like Harvey, his BABIP is out of hand at .429. Kremer is better to RHH with a 2.26 FIP, 3.41 xFIP, zero homers, and a .320 wOBA. As far as I’m concerned, here we go again. This might be from 2020, but the stuff remains –

Starting Rotation 4.28 – Out of Play

Taylor Widener – The Padres have not hit the fastball well yet, ranking just 24th in baseball. Widener throws his about 63% of the time but also has a .408 xwOBA and the FIP/xFIP combo is an identical 4.75, well above the 2.82 ERA he has. Widener is also sporting a 1.61 HR/9 and an 88.2% strand rate, which won’t hold up. The Padres are third in hard-hit rate as a team to righties and Widener is over 47% for his rate. 

Huascar Ynoa – I’m sort of on the fence with Ynoa but I’m settling with leaving him out of play. The K rate is awesome at 29.8% but his hard-hit rate is 40% and the BABIP is only .200. The HR/9 at 2.05 isn’t exactly appealing, nor is the last time he faced the Cubs and got smacked. Chicago is still striking out a ton and Ynoa does generate a swinging-strike rate over 13% but I’m still a little nervous on this spot for him. If you decided to play him, I don’t think I’d mount a strong argument against it. 

Kyle Hendricks – A righty who has a K rate under 21% and is not generating ground balls isn’t where I look to attack the Atlanta offense. His FIP is 7.57 and that’s coming with a strand rate of 89.6%. His three main pitches are all over a .405 xSLG and a .330 xwOBA. Hendricks is throwing the sinker almost 40% of the time and he’s allowed two homers already. Let’s take a look at Atlanta against righty sinkers –

Domingo German – He’s only pitched 13 innings because he’s getting clobbered with a 6.23 ERA and a 5.78 FIP. The BABIP is high at .349 but so is the HR/9 at 2.77. German is seeing a hard-hit rate at almost 47% and each side of the plate is over a .340 wOBA against him with RHH sitting at .468. 

Erick Fedde – You’ll have to excuse me if I’m not buying the 24.3% K rate for Fedde so far. he’s sitting at 16% for his career, which spans 210.1 IP. He is throwing the cutter more but that’s not a huge K pitch for him. He does get a decent lineup for his splits, which he’s holding RHH to a .251 wOBA and lefties are getting to him for a .374 wOBA. Even still, I’m not bold enough to attack Toronto and Vlad Daddy. Fedde hasn’t exactly faced a gauntlet up to this point and the Braves offense smacked him around. 

Dane Dunning – The metrics don’t look too bad for Dunning through his 17.2 IP with a 24% K rate and a 2.47 FIP/3.30 xFIP combo. However, the Angels are one of the lowest strikeout teams in the league. Dunning is also leaning on his sinker 62% of the time. While it’s generated 10 of his 18 strikeouts, LA profiles extremely well against righty sinkers. Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Jared Walsh, Justin Upton, and Albert Pujols all have a wOBA of at least .347 and an ISO of at least .250 against that pitch type. 

Vince Velasquez – It’s hard to ever suggest playing a pitcher with a WHIP over 2.00, even with a 32.5% K rate. RHH have also smashed Vinnie Velo for a .531 wOBA, .333 average, and a 4.91 HR/9. That’s not ideal when you have five righties in the opposing lineup. 

Casey Mize – We all want the kid to be good, but he flat out hasn’t yet in the majors. Through 49 IP, he has a 6.41 FIP, 5.09 xFIP, 17.9% K rate, and just a 9.3% swinging-strike rate. His talent will allow him to pop up for a great start now and again but most slates it’s foolhardy to play him. The White Sox have the third-best strikeout rate on top of that. 

Johan Oviedo – The young righty is making his first start of the season but has yet to show much upside in his 29.1 IP. Sure, that’s a small sample size but his K rate is only 15.5% and the CSW is 27.1%. I will say that Philly isn’t above average against his main three pitches of the four-seam, cutter, and curve but I’m not willing to go after just that. Additionally, RHH have a .370 wOBA against him in his short career. 

Justin Dunn – There’s going to be a point where we use this kid and do it with a smile. He’s using the curve more and more this season, and that’s a good thing. It has a 30% whiff rate, .230 xwOBA and .224 xSLG. Unfortunately, his fastball is sitting at a .496 xwOBA and a .657 xSLG. His walk rate is super elevated at 16.9% and Houston is top five against the fastball and only whiffs 20% of the time. It’s just not the right matchup. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.28 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 4.27

Tuesday brings us a much larger slate but the quality of pitching isn’t exactly spectacular. There’s quality at the top but the cliff goes down pretty steeply. That doesn’t mean we can’t find some gems through the lineups, but it becomes more of a challenge. Let’s not mess about and get into the Starting Rotation 4.27 so we can lay the foundation to find the green screens again! 

Starting Rotation 4.27 – Main Targets 

Lucas Giolito ($9,300 DK/$$10,600 FD) 

Giolito was slated to start Sunday for the White Sox but was sick and got his start pushed. This is part of what I wrote before that start and I 100% stand by it today –

Giolito got blasted last time out but that doesn’t really affect today in my eyes. First off, every pitcher has some bad days. It happens in baseball. Secondly, he took the mound at what amounted to 10 AM for his rhythm. Giolito is typically in the Central time zone and it’s a tough ask to pitch that early in the morning (11 AM Eastern). Pitchers especially are creatures of habit. So the 5.79 ERA is not only skewed but the 3.53 FIP and 2.94 xFIP also suggest positive regression for Giolito is just around the corner. He won’t continue to have a 55.6% strand rate and a .311 BABIP when he’s sporting a 32.1% K rate, 15.1% swinging-strike rate, and a 31.4% CSW.

Now he gets the Detroit lineup that is struggling to get the ball in play with a 27.4% K rate, fifth-worst in the league. The Detroit lineup also plays into his strengths as far as splits go this year. The projected hitters include six lefties and/or switch hitters and Giolito has a .227 wOBA, .205 average, and a 35.7% K rate to that side of the plate. Even the FIP is all the way down at 1.00.

We have one bigger name on the mound, but Giolito has one of the best matchups on the board for a cheaper salary. Even with some extended rest, I’m not overly worried.

Max Scherzer ($10,900 DK/$12,000 FD)

Typically we don’t use pitchers against the Blue Jays lineup but Max is just built differently. Toronto only carries a K rate of 23.9% which is 19th in the league. That’s not a huge number but the pitch mix is outstanding for Scherzer. The only pitch Toronto hits well is the curve and that’s the pitch Scherzer uses the least. The 1.80 ERA looks excellent but he does have a 100% strand rate so that’s not going to continue at his current rates. The K rate is still almost 36% which is 11th in the league. The fly ball rate is a little worrisome at 59.3% and little things like that could be the tie-breaker with a pitcher like Lucas Giolito. 

Both the swinging strike rate and CSW are still high at 15.7% and 31.3% so Scherzer is getting plenty of strikes regardless of type. The most noticeable metric for Scherzer that looks different is the wOBA to RHH at .302. He’s always been a little worse to lefties so seeing that is surprising. The HR/9 is also elevated at 2.53 so far, out of character as well. I thought perhaps the pitch type data would help and the slider is what sticks out. Last year, that pitch had a .176 wOBA and a .167 slugging. 

This season, it sits at .290 and 375 in each category. That’s still not bad, but explains a little bit why righties are suddenly hitting better. It does have a little bit less movement on the vertical and horizontal movement charts, which isn’t super helpful. It’s not like the slider is all that bad, either –

The good news for Mad Max is Vlad Guerrero is the only hitter with a FanGraphs rating above 0.6. Vlad ranks 10th in the league against the pitch so the Jays rank is deceiving. I think I prefer Giolito in a vacuum but Scherzer is likely still the pitching chalk. 

Christian Javier ($9,300 DK/$9,400 FD)

Someone at DK needs to explain to me how Javier can score 30 DK and see his salary drop by $300. That’s flat-out ridiculous. Javier actually possesses a higher K rate than Scherzer at 36.4% through his 13.2 IP this season. One of the differences is he’s throwing his secondary pitches more often. The slider and the curve have jumped up roughly 4% each and the slider especially is the one doing damage. It has 10 of the 20 strikeouts Javier has recorded so far with a .084 xwOBA and a 51.5% whiff rate. Even the FanGraphs rating backs up the slider as Javier is tied at 16th with Jacob deGrom. It looks even better when it’s paired with a fastball like this –

Javier has yet to give up a bomb and the Mariners look like an exploitable matchup, at least for strikeouts. They’re flirting with 26% and are in the bottom half of the league in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against righty pitching. Only Kyle Seager has a FanGraphs rating over 1.0 against the slider of their everyday players. Javier should face off against six RHH in the Mariners lineup and that’s a help to him. He’s smashing the right side of the plate with a .138 average, .211 wOBA, 43.8% K rate, and a 0.82 FIP. 

Walker Buehler ($10,200 DK/$9,800 FD) 

It’s not the best day to spend down at pitching and these four at the top are really bunched up for me. Buehler still carries some concern in my eyes with just a 22.1% K rate and that’s easily the worst of the bunch. At the same time, we just saw him shove for seven innings against the Padres and put up 27.4 DK points with nine strikeouts. I’m not in love with the hard contact at 43.8% but the fastball is doing some heavy lifting. It’s 11th in FanGraphs ratings and has 15 of 21 strikeouts so far. Buehler has picked up vertical movement while losing a bit of horizontal, which is interesting to note. 

The scary part of that is the xSLG and the xwOBA on that pitch are both much higher this season, at .572 and .354 respectively. Last year those numbers were .183 and .198. That is honestly a concern to me, especially since the Reds are a top team against the fastball this year. The flip side to that is the Reds are bottom-six in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ on the road to righties this year. We talked yesterday about the sample being small overall and they are only 21st in plate appearances in that split. It’s still a factor in our decisions. With a career-best WHIP of 0.88 so far, Buehler can be effective without strikeouts for real life. The question is do we want to pay five figures on DK? I lean no and have the top four ranked Giolito/Scherzer as 1A and 1B, Javier a close second, and then a gap to Buehler. 

Starting Rotation 4.27 – In Play 

Zach Eflin – It does not appear to be a slate where we’re going to be able to pay down at pitching. Perhaps the field flocks to someone I’m not guessing right now, but as I mentioned, it does get ugly quickly. Eflin has to get a look in part because the Cardinals don’t profile well against righty sinkers and that’s nearly 50% of his pitches. Additionally, the Cards are still whiffing 26% of the time to righty pitching and Eflin sits at a 19.2% K rate. That does come up to 24.6% to RHH, but he feels just a little pricey. 

Ian Anderson – The matchup suddenly doesn’t look very easy, as the Cubs have gone from 30th to 16th against fastballs with frightening speed. Six of the eight projected hitters have ISO’s over .200 against said pitch and Anderson has a walk rate over 11% on the year. Chicago is ninth in walk rate and 11th in ISO. This could be a tough spot for Anderson, even with a 24.5% K rate. I’m honestly not likely to go here but Anderson’s talent leaves him in the player pool for the deep GPP players. 

Frankie Montas – It’s not a pick that I’m particularly fond of, but he is one of two pitchers I could see the field using as an SP2 on DK with his salary. The Rays are about average in K rate at 24.8% and Montas is respectable at 23.3%. He’s sporting his best swinging-strike rate at 12.3% which is useful as well. Tampa doesn’t profile well against righty sinkers for the most part and the projected six LHH could help out Montas. He’s only giving up a .299 wOBA to that side of the plate with a 37.5% K rate. Let’s keep an eye on the Tampa lineup before making the final call. 

Aaron Sanchez – Everyone’s favorite chef personality takes the hill again tonight and Sanchez isn’t exactly cooking up the strikeouts at a 17.5% rate. He is delivering an excellent ground ball rate at 59.3% which is sixth among starting pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP. The Rockies are also ninth in ground ball rate to righties on the road, so you can build the argument that Sanchez can ground ball them to death here. Perhaps my largest concern is his pitch counts. His high is 82 and last game he was out after just 67 pitches, despite five innings of two-hit ball. 

Starting Rotation 4.27 – Out of Play 

Chris Paddack – I can’t fathom paying $9,000 for him. The K rate is 21% and he’s historically been worse on the road and to lefty hitters. This year, the lefties have just a 15.4% K rate and there is likely to be six in the Arizona lineup. They also are just average in K rate and if that wasn’t enough, the D-Backs are the best team in the league against the fastball. Paddack is throwing it over 67% of the time so far with a .360 xwOBA. 

Corey Kluber – The Klubot appears to be broken with a 6.43 FIP and a 5.91 xFIP. The K rate is just barely 19% and the walk rate is over 15%, scary ratios to pair up. LHH have a .321 wOBA while the RHH have a .442 wOBA, 2.89 HR/9, and just a 15.6% K rate. Trey Mancini, Austin Hays, Maikel Franco, and Ryan Mountcastle all have an ISO of at least .200 against righty cutters which is one of the main two pitches for Kluber. 

Trevor Williams – The righty for the Cubs is a heavy four-seam pitcher that doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters. Six of the eight projected Braves hitters have an ISO of at least .200 and a wOBA of at least .300 against righty fastballs. Atlanta is also fourth-lowest in ground ball rate to RHP, which is going to be an issue for Williams. 

Adrian Houser – I view him as very similar to Sanchez but he’s more expensive for a lower K rate and a higher ground ball rate. Houser leads all starters in ground ball rate but has a paltry 7% swinging-strike rate with a CSW at 19.1%. At that point, let’s save the $700. 

Jeff Hoffman – He’s been solid when he’s not pitching in Coors Field, as tends to happen. I still don’t have a lot of interest in playing someone with a wOBA over .305 to each side of the plate against the Dodgers. He throws the fastball about 55% of the time and the Dodgers are third-best in baseball against that pitch. 

Michael Wacha – He does have a 25.3% K rate but man he just hasn’t put much together outside of the one game against the Yankees. One of the biggest issues for him is he’s getting smacked by RHP to the tune of a .370 wOBA, OPS approaching .900, and a 2.08 HR/9. Oakland is predominantly righty hitters, so this start doesn’t scream out as a good one. 

David Peterson – A lefty against the Red Sox is a tough sell no matter what. Peterson has a HR/9 over 2.00, and it gets worse to RHH at 2.61. They also have a .363 wOBA and Peterson throws the fastball 56% of the time. Boston sits sixth against that pitch and inside the top 10 in our offensive categories to lefties this year. 

Carlos Martinez – The FIP is 4.10 contrasted with the 6.00 ERA for Martinez, but there’s no disguising the 14.3% K rate or the swinging-strike rate under 10%. RHH have a 1.54 HR/9 while LHH only whiff 9.8% of the time against Martinez. That’s not ideal when you’re pitching to this Phillies lineup. 

Jose Urena – I don’t think I want to use White Sox hitters all that much, as they lead the league in ground ball rate to righties. Urena is generating a 53.2% ground ball rate and is better to RHH with a .205 wOBA. He should face six in the White Sox lineup, but don’t be afraid of a lefty stack since he gives up a .357 average and a .394 wOBA to that side of the plate. 

Tommy Milone – The Nationals are second in wOBA to LHP and I’m simply not buying that Milone suddenly has a 14.4% swinging-strike rate to go with a 31% CSW. RHH have a .343 wOBA and Milone hasn’t exceeded three innings so far. 

Mike Foltynewicz – The Angels are fully healthy and dangerous, not to mention Folty is sitting on a 6.78 FIP and a 3.27 HR/9. Lefties especially have gotten to him with a .462 wOBA but even the righties have a 2.25 HR/9. LA isn’t striking out much, only at 23.2% and they are 14th against the fastball which Folty is throwing over 60% of the time. 

Merrill Kelly – The D-Backs righty sports a 13.7% K rate, 5.19 FIP, 46.1% hard-hit rate, and has never had a swinging-strike rate over 9.8%. That’s bad news when you’re facing the Padres. 

Garrett Richards – He has more walks than strikeouts, a 5.74 FIP, 6.26 xFIP, and a .331 wOBA to lefty hitters. Righties have even more success with a .382 mark and this is a fairly easy pass. 

Jose Quintana – The lefty for the Angels hasn’t pitched as bad as the 9.00 would lead you to believe. He did just face this Rangers offense for 21.7 DK points but I have a hard time chasing that. I suppose games log watchers may make him popular but Texas is 15th against the fastball, which Quintana is throwing 55% of the time. RHH have a .380 wOBA when facing Quintana this season. 

Daniel Castano – This man has two strikeouts in 10 IP. Can’t do it, can’t win with him. 

Chi Chi Gonzalez – You can’t be happy to see a 12.7%/11.1% K/BB rate, nor a 1.47 WHIP. The biggest issue for Gonzalez is the .340 wOBA to LHH and the .314 average. The San Francisco lineup boasts a lot of lefties and I’ll pass, even though Chi Chi has a career 4.87 ERA outside of Coors. 

Marco Gonzales – The 6.10 FIP backs up the 6.04 ERA so far, and the HR/9 has exploded to 2.42. Gonzales has seen his CSW decline from 29.8% last year to 24.9% this year, a sizable dip. RHH have crushed him so far with a .472 wOBA, .328 average, and a 3.77 HR/9. Houston can throw out a ton of righty hitters and they could shape up as a great stack tonight. 

Bruce Zimmermann – The struggles to righties have been well-documented for the Yanks, but Zimmermann is a lefty and they’re much more towards league average against lefties. Zimmermann has just a 16.7% K rate, a 1.38 WHIP, and a .365 wOBA to righty hitters. Both the FIP and xFIP are over 5.45 to that side of the plate as well. 

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