MLB DFS Top Plays

Starting Rotation 6.11

After a split Thursday slate that Brian was nice enough to cover for me, we are back for a full Friday night slate! It’s National Jacob deGrom Day and we will certainly be celebrating with everyone else. At the first glance, it doesn’t appear to be the slate to spend down on pitching. The largest question is where are we heading in Starting Rotation 6.11 to pair up with the best pitcher in the game so let’s get to work!

Starting Rotation 6.11 – Main Targets 

Jacob deGrom

I wasn’t planning on saying much about deGrom. When he plays, we play him and we all know this by now. Then I opened the slate for the night and it’s not even a discussion. Max Scherzer got rained out Thursday night, so he will pitch tonight and DK has priced him higher than deGrom. The Mets righty leads the majors in everything we value and this would be one of the most statistically dominant seasons in baseball history if deGrom can keep this up.

He should be over $13,000 every slate, akin to Russell Westbrook at the end of this NBA season. If he was, it makes you at least calculate if it’s worth paying the price. When he’s not even the priciest option on the board? I would play deGrom ahead of Scherzer in every format, 100 times out of 100. 

Brandon Woodruff 

If you decide to take the path of double ace and spend down on hitters, Woodruff would certainly check that box. His 1.42 ERA isn’t terribly far off from his 2.20 FIP and 2.68 xFIP and Woodruff has a 0.47 HR/9 against the team that is ranked dead last in ISO. The 4.7% barrel rate is excellent and backs up the 26.3% hard-hit rate. Additionally, the fastball is ranked as the best one in the majors on FanGraphs and Pittsburgh is dead last against that pitch. Granted, he’s only throwing it about 35% of the time but the four-seam also has 57 strikeouts so far with a .160 wOBA and a 31.5% whiff rate. 

The Pirates lineup is balanced with generally four of each hitter plus the pitcher spot but with Woodruff, it likely doesn’t even matter. Both sides of the plate are either at a .197 wOBA or a .191 wOBA and neither side is above a .155 average. The K rates are above 30% for both sides and the WHIP is under 0.85 as well. There’s nothing to pick on here for Woodruff and on most slates, he’d be in the running for the SP1 spot.

Shohei Ohtani 

We got to see Ohtani at his best in the last start when he racked up over 30 DK points and whiffed 10 hitters across just 76 pitches. Perhaps the best facet we saw from Ohtani was zero walks because that has been one of his largest issues this season. The K rate of 34.1% has only been rivaled by a 14.8% walk rate. Ohtani hasn’t been getting hit hard with a 5.7% barrel rate and a 31% hard-hit rate and he has the looks of an elite ace pitcher aside from the high walk rate. Both the swinging-strike rate of 14.4% and the CSW of 31.2% would be inside the top 15 if Ohtani qualified. His biggest weapon continues to be the splitter, which is just a video game pitch. 

The splitter is thrown more to lefties than righties at a 92-46 rate so far, which is huge when we consider the lefty-heavy Arizona lineup. Ohtani’s splitter has 41 of 60 strikeouts, a .069 wOBA, and a 63.9% whiff rate. The odd part about all those stats is the left side of the plate strikes out at a much lower rate of 27% compared to 43.3% to the righties. Lefties also carry a 4.51 xFIP so there is some concern with Ohtani, but the price remains far too low for the ceiling. 

Charlie Morton 

Playing Morton on the right night this season has been….maddening, to say the least. His 4.21 ERA is not totally in line with the 3.27 xFIP and the 3.64 FIP and Ground Chuck has a 27.2% K rate with a 49.1% ground ball rate. Morton is also getting hit hard only 25.5% of the time and it seems like the bad luck has really found him so far this season. His .310 BABIP would be the highest full-season rate since 2016, and his swinging-strike rate of 11.7% is almost totally in line with the past few seasons. It’s interesting to note that of 72 total strikeouts, 61 have come from the four-seam/curve combo. Miami is sitting inside the bottom 10 against each pitch and the curve has over a 43% whiff rate. 

We’ve generally not played Morton very much and on a slate this loaded up top, maybe you don’t have to. However, if you’re attempting to fit some more expensive stacks he’s cheap enough to get a strong look here. Miami is 23rd or worse in OPS, ISO, and wOBA and that comes with the fifth-highest K rate in the league at 25.9%. Morton is also better to righties with a .293 wOBA and the normal Marlins lineup has five plus the pitcher spot. Being in Miami doesn’t hurt either and Morton could be a fairly cheap 20+ DK points tonight. 

Tarik Skubal

Skubal is absolutely the most dangerous player in the article tonight, so let’s be upfront. I don’t always love pitchers facing the same team twice in a row, the White Sox are inside the top-five in all our offensive categories, and Skubal has a very short track record of success. Five of his past six starts have been over 19 DK and we’ve seen a change in the pitch mix does wonders for him. The splitter is gone which is great because it was getting destroyed. When he eliminated that, some velocity came back into the fastball and it has a 25% whiff rate. 

On the season, Skubal has a 28.3% K rate and is proving he can strike out major league hitters. Even dialing back to the start of May, his ERA is just 3.33, the wOBA is .325, and both the FIP and xFIP are under 3.80. That’s coming with a K rate over 34% and everything can start to be traced with his pitch mix change. The salary shouldn’t be this low but be prepared for the floor if picking him tonight. 

Honorable Mention 

Lucas Giolito – On most slates, I would be all over Giolito. He’s rattled off at least 21 DK in four straight starts and gets a Detroit offense that is still whiffing around 25% of the time. I prefer Woodruff for $300 more but I can’t complain if you went here. 

Clayton Kershaw – It speaks to how loaded the elite tier is tonight that Kershaw is only in Honorable Mention. Texas strikes out 23.5% of the time and they will lose their DH on top of that. Kershaw’s recent form has been quite poor and I suspect we could get him at sub-5% tonight. If that happens, he’s worth taking shots with as a pairing with deGrom. 

Starting Rotation 6.11 Stacking Options 

• Astros against Matt Shoemaker (Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa)
• Angels against Brady Singer (Jared Walsh, Justin Upon, Max Stassi, Anthony Rendon, Taylor Ward)
• Dodgers against Mike Foltynewicz (Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, cheaper lefties)
• Reds against Kyle Freeland (Nick Castellanos, Jonathan India, Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, Tyler Stephenson)
• Nationals against Anthony DeSclafani (Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Kyle Schwarber)
• Rays against Keegan Akin (Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, Mike Zunino, Taylor Walls, Austin Meadows)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.11 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 6.9

This slate is another massive one but man it is a weird one. Pitching looks pretty poor on the surface but we also could have a couple of glaring values. One of the biggest decisions on the slate lies at the very top so let’s get busy in the Starting Rotation 6.9 to lay the foundation for green screens! 

Starting Rotation 6.9 – Main Targets 

Gerrit Cole 

I’m going to say this right off the hop, and perhaps this stand backfires. I will not have any Gerrit Cole outside of cash (if he’s popular). Look, this is far less about anything Cole brings to the mound statistically throughout the season more than what he might not be bringing. Cole is at the epicenter of the “scandal” in MLB right now that sees pitchers using sticky stuff to gain higher spin rates and more movement on their pitches. The last start saw Cole drop his RPM by an awful lot to the lowest rate since 2018. His whiff rate was down on both the four-seam and curveball which isn’t a good sign.
Another very poor sign? Cole’s “answer” to a reporter asking if he’s using Spider Tack.

This is just an absurd answer, or non-answer maybe is the better term. Cole is a very talented pitcher and is fully capable of dominating. If everything was equal, he’d be the clear number one option on the slate. However, the Twins are the best team against the fastball. If that’s an issue in this start, we’d regret paying over $11,000. I fully believe he’ll be popular in cash and we eat chalk in that format, but I’m willing to gamble and have some Twins tonight. 

Taijuan Walker 

Nobody whose name isn’t Brian Tulloch wakes up and says, “YES! I can play Taijuan Walker today!” and even I’m not in love with the play. The xFIP of 4.20 isn’t spectacular in comparison to the 2.17 ERA but Walker does have a 23.7% K rate at least. The WHIP is also just 1.06 despite a 10.7% walk rate and the 9.3% swinging-strike rate is on the high side for him. It’s still frustrating to see him using the sinker as every pitch but that one has a wOBA no higher than .236. The four-seam has 31 of 51 strikeouts so far and Baltimore whiffs over 24% to righty pitching. They are also no higher than 25th in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, or OBP on the season to righty pitching. 

Walker also has strong splits against each side of the plate, as neither is over a .243 wOBA on the season. The lefties are still a bit of a mixed bag because the K rate jumps slightly to 25%, but the xFIP is scary at 4.81. Having said that, the hard-hit rate is still just 28.6% to that side of the plate and Baltimore has not exactly been an offense to take advantage of any weakness against righties. On a weird slate, Walker checks enough boxes to make the cut. 

Casey Mize 

The pitch data looks fantastic for Mize in this start and for the life of me I can’t figure out why the price isn’t coming up. He’s now strung together five straight starts of at least 17 DK points but has yet to exceed $7,000 on any given slate. Mize has struck out a total of 26 hitters over the past four starts and has only given up a total of six earned runs over 26 IP. The K rate of 20.4% is not exactly accurate at this stage and his WHIP is only 1.07. His 50.6% ground ball rate is 11th in the league and he’ll need every bit of it since the Mariners are surprisingly 27th in ground ball rate on the year to righty pitching.

Mize does come with a significant catch – lefty hitters have been an issue, even while he’s been pitching better. The wOBA is .340, the FIP is 6.04, and the xFIP is 4.54. Seattle will have 5-6 lefties and that’s not ideal, as they are 13th in ISO against righty pitching. The four-seam has been the home run pitch with six bombs given up and a .353 wOBA. The good news is it does possess a 27.8% whiff rate and Seattle is almost last against the pitch. Mize is dangerous, but he is also mis-priced. With the Mariners featuring a 25.8% K rate, the reward is worth the risk.

Tucker Davidson

When a slate looks this tough, I’m willing to take some chances and Davidson is exactly that. We’re only talking about a 13.1 inning sample size in the majors to this point and there is a 5.55 FIP and 5.48 xFIP in that sample. The K rate is also only 20.3% but some of that is a bit skewed by a poor 1.2 IP in 2020. What we love to see is the 13.1% swinging-strike rate thus far and a 50% ground ball rate. Through 20 IP in the minors, Davidson has shown strikeout upside with a 32.4% K rate and a ground ball rate of 52.4%. Philly has been an offense to pick on with lefty pitching this season with a 29.3% K rate, which is the third-worst in the league. They are also 13th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS, and slugging as well. 

Davidson has faced 34 righties and they only have a .256 wOBA and he should see 6-7 righties tonight. The largest fear is the 11.8% K rate and the 5.41 xFIP, so understand exactly what you’re going with if you play him. The Mets and the Nationals were tougher matchups on paper and Davidson has scored at least 13.9 DK in each of those starts. 

Austin Gomber 

Everyone seems to remember the start where Gomber got absolutely annihilated by the Giants but he’s not getting enough respect for what he’s done outside of that lone start. Gomber has not been below 11.4 DK points past his first start of the year which only went three innings. In the past 10, he has six starts over 17 DK and is only $6,000. To sum it up, he should NOT be this cheap. Gomber has a K rate over 25%, a swinging-strike rate of 11.2%, and a 30.9% CSW on the season. Miami has the sixth-worst K rate to lefty pitching at 28% and even though Starling Marte is back in this offense, they still aren’t scary. They are either 22nd or 23rd in slugging, OPS, OBP, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ this season. 

Some folks might make a big deal about his road ERA being sky-high but that includes his horrific start and a 56.4% strand rate. To righties on the year, his strand rate is under 60% and that’s got to change at some point. His xFIP to that side of the plate is just 3.82 and with a hard-hit rate of just 29.4%, Gomber is a serious value in my eyes tonight. My plan for GPP is to pick two out of Mize, Davidson, and Gomber and play whatever bats I choose. 

Starting Rotation 6.9 Stacking Options

• Angels against Brad Keller (Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh, Justin Upton, Taylor Ward, Anthony Rendon, Max Stassi)
• Rays against Patrick Corbin (Manuel Margot, Randy Arozarena, Mike Zunino, Mike Brosseau)
• Dodgers against Tyler Anderson (Chris Taylor, Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, Albert Pujols)
• Mets against Matt Harvey (Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor – they would rank higher but the pricing for the other hitters is absurd. I may just settle for a mini-stack.)
• Tigers against Chris Flexen (Robbie Grossman, Eric Haase, Jonathan Schoop, Akil Baddoo)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.9 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 6.6

It’s Sunday and we have a 10-game slate today and it falls under the category of a challenging/easy slate. I say that because the challenge comes from not having a ton of options at the first look. The easy part comes from when we don’t have a lot of options, it makes picking pitchers a whole lot easier. Let’s go through the normal process and see if we can identify some gems or if we’ll just play it straight in the Starting Rotation 6.6! 

Starting Rotation 6.6 – Main Targets 

Corbin Burnes 

Burnes hasn’t exactly hit the ceiling we saw earlier in the year in the past couple of starts but I very much doubt that will deter the field. Burnes is still sporting a 40.9% K rate to go along with the 51.9% ground ball rate. His 2.24 ERA looks fantastic and it looks even better next to a 1.17 FIP and 1.83 xFIP. Burnes has been nearly unhittable with a 4.7% barrel rate and a 21.7% hard-hit rate while he rocks an 18.3% swinging-strike rate and a 35% CSW. The K rate, swinging-strike rate, and the CSW would all be second behind only Jacob deGrom if Burnes qualified. 

There will only be two small issues I’d put out there. The first is Burnes “only” has a 34% K rate to lefties. I say only because righties whiff at a 47.5% rate, and you need a ceiling at the price tag. It also has to be noted that Burnes hasn’t hit the ceiling since he came back from Covid. Trying to measure any effects he’s going through is useless as I’m not a doctor, but I’ll simply state that the time after the virus treats everyone differently. Hopefully, he rolls out there and totally smashes the Arizona lineup but we always try and discuss anything relevant to the start at hand. The issue with the fade is where else do we go if we pass on Burnes? 

Sandy Alcantara 

I wonder if the field turns to Trevor Bauer, but I have some fears there. For those who may have missed it, MLB is supposed to be cracking down on illegal substances on the baseball. These substances can help improve RPM (revolutions per minute) and we saw during Gerrit Cole’s last start he saw a dramatic drop in RPM and got hit hard. Bauer is one of the poster children for seeing a sharp increase in RPM and I worry if MLB starts looking, he abandons whatever he’s been using. Facing Atlanta isn’t where we want to play a pitcher that is suddenly not using what he normally uses. Now, this is all theoretical. MLB isn’t supposed to enforce it for a couple of weeks but everyone in the league knows they’re watching right now. It’s enough for me to not really look at Bauer today. 

Instead, let’s take a look at Alcantara. The Pirates have been a little bit feisty in this series but I’m not super concerned about that. This is still generally a poor offense (albeit with a 23% K rate) and rank 24th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS, and slugging. The K rate for Alcantara isn’t the best we’re going to see in this price range at 23.8% but this is more of a slate context play than anything else. He generates a 52.3% ground ball rate and that ranks eighth in the league, which does help as does the 43.6% ground ball rate for the Pirates offense. That’s the 12th highest rate against righty pitching. 

The Bucs are good against the changeup but Alcantara’s is excellent and is ranked as the best changeup in baseball on FanGraphs. He’s earned a 35.9% whiff rate, .153 wOBA, and a .167 average. Both sides of the plate are under a .300 wOBA and lefties are the worse side. Alcantara has surrendered a road ERA of 5.40, but he’s made starts against the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Giants, and Braves on the road. I’m not here to put much stock into the ERA. I wish he was slightly cheaper but if you’re not interested in Bauer, Alcantara makes a lot of sense. 

Jorge Lopez 

I feel pretty strongly that the best way to attack this slate is to live up top in the Burnes, Alcantara, and possibly Bauer range. I said pitching was bad and I meant it. This pick is wildly dangerous but there is a (narrow) path to success for Lopez. His 4.02 xFIP points us to the 5.29 ERA being fairly unlucky and that’s come with a 22% HR/FB rate. What is truly bizarre is the flyball rate for Lopez is only 28.1%. This isn’t a massive flyball pitcher. Lopez is displaying a career-best 10.1% swinging-strike rate and a 23.1% K rate. He’s never been above a 19.9% rate in any season he pitched more than 35 innings.

Lopez has also added velocity to the sinker and fastball and is sitting around 95 MPH. The four-seam especially has seen a sharp increase in whiff rate from 18% last year to 27.8% this season. He’ll also face 6-7 lefties and that is the better side of the plate with Lopez at a .300 wOBA, 23.8% K rate, and a 1.17 WHIP. Is anything about that spectacular? Nope. He’s $5,200 and if he can grind out 15 DK, we’d be super happy here. 

Honorable Mention 

Austin Voth – Plenty risky, but Voth has displayed a .169 wOBA and a 38.9% K rate to righties. He’s also gotten crushed by lefties for a .451 wOBA and a K rate of just 10%, so the lineup for Philly is incredibly important. They are only projected for two, which would leave me willing to take a chance here. 

Bailey Ober – He’s only pitched four innings in the majors that did not go well, but his past 40 IP in the minors have produced a K rate over 32%. He’s also never had issues with home runs so at $4,000 he can be worth a look in MME formats. 

Starting Rotation 6.6 Stacking Options 

• Astros against Steven Matz (Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa, Martin Maldonado)
• Cardinals against Wade Miley (Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neil, Tommy Edman, Yadier Molina)
• Marlins against Chad Kuhl (Jazz Chisholm, Corey Dickerson, Jesus Aguilar, Starling Marte)
• Dodgers against Max Fried (Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Mookie Betts, Albert Pujols)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.6 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 6.1

The calendar has flipped to June and we have a nice-sized slate for Tuesday night. There are some very strong options on this slate but they are highly concentrated in the higher tier of salary, with one player likely to carry most of the attention. Let’s not waste much more time and jump into the Starting Rotation 6.1 to lay the foundation for green screens once again! 

Starting Rotation 6.1 – Main Targets 

Tyler Glasnow 

I don’t believe that the Yankees lineup is going to scare anyone here, as they’ve been shut down by Tarik Skubal and Rich Hill on consecutive days. Maybe the DK pricing algorithm hasn’t received that memo. Glasnow scored 37 DK points at $10,500 and his salary CAME DOWN $700.

If they still worry anyone, that’s going to be their issue because Glasnow is a fantastic play and should still be chalky. He continues to be top-five in K rate overall (36.2%), swinging-strike rate (16.9%), and CSW (33.7%) among qualified starters. The Yanks are hovering between eighth and 12th in K rate to righty pitching and are also no higher than 14th in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS, or average. 

Glasnow is slightly worse to righty hitters and we talked about this in the last start. The “worse” side is a 1.24 HR/9, 3.01 xFIP, a .293 wOBA, and a 35.1% K rate. That’s not nearly enough to take me away from Glasnow in this spot and the Yankees offense just hasn’t given us a ton of reason to worry. I fully expect Glasnow to give up some production, but not enough to not end up between 22-26 DK points with a much higher ceiling. 

Note – I had planned on giving Aaron Nola a very strong look and full write-up, but the pricing on DK leaves me mostly off him. Perhaps he can be worth it in GPP but the salary for Glasnow combined with his ceiling is too hard to pass on. I’m not likely to stray from the upper end in salary tonight with Glasnow SO underpriced and he makes an easy combo with the next pitcher. 

Chris Bassitt 

I’m not sure there’s much of a better spot for Bassitt to ask for coming off a complete-game shutout of the Angels last time out. The 114 pitches aren’t a giant red flag, but it is noteworthy Bassitt normally sits around 95 or so. Still, he’s been so good this season and the Seattle offense has been a target all year long. They rank 24th in wRC+, 27th in wOBA, 28th in OPS, and they whiff at a 25.6% rate which is the eighth-highest. That’s going to fit like a glove with the 26.1% K rate and a 25.3% hard-hit rate.

We can talk about the Mariners rolling out five lefties, which is technically the worse side of the plate for Bassitt. Just like Glasnow, “worse” is a relative term since lefties only have a .285 wOBA, .206 average, and a K rate over 26%. The four-seam and slider do the damage as far as the strikeouts go and those pitches have 49 of 74 strikeouts on the season. The slider in particular has been excellent with a .118 wOBA and a 64.1% whiff rate. It seems a little odd that Bassitt doesn’t throw it more, but you can’t argue with the success this year.

Robbie Ray

It was a rare poor start from Ray last game out but that’s not going to deter me here. Miami does have some pop against lefty pitching as they are 15th in ISO and slugging, but they also whiff the fourth-most at 27.8% and are bottom-five against the main pitch for Ray. Not only are they bottom-five, but the two best fastball hitters in Miguel Rojas and Brian Anderson also are on the IL. Without those two, Miami ranks 29th. The four-seam has the most strikeouts of any pitch for Ray at 31 of 60 and has a 22.7% whiff rate.

That pitch has also given up eight home runs so there is always going to be a danger with Ray, but the Miami K rate is too high to not chase. Ray himself sits at 28% and he’s still not walking almost anyone with a 6.1% walk rate. The 1.13 WHIP would be the best he’s ever posted so home runs tend to hurt a little less if they’re solo shots. His HR/FB rate is awfully high at 25.9% and the xFIP is only 3.39. Only Adam Duvall and Jesus Aguilar have ISO’s over .200 from the right side of the plate (and I do like them as a mini-stack) but Ray has a clear path to 20+ DK points tonight. 

Alex Wood 

The Angels aren’t exactly a world-beater on offense against lefty pitching and Wood has been excellent this season. His 2.94 ERA is in line with a 2.91 xFIP and you have to love the 56.8% ground ball rate. That would be second if he qualified at this juncture and guess who leads the league in ground ball rate to lefty pitching? That would indeed be the Angels are only around league average in the rest of our offensive categories.

LA might look solid against the slider at 10th but they are overall in the negative numbers and Wood’s slider is doing some work. Of the 50 strikeouts Wood has recorded, 39 have come from the slider and it’s sporting a .198 wOBA. Righty hitters have had a very difficult time with Wood this year, generating just a .256 wOBA, .584 OPS, and a whopping 30.7% K rate. LA loses the DH in this park on top of everything else and Wood checks all the boxes. 

Honorable Mention 

Michael Pineda – The matchup is very nice for him but I’m not crazy about the price tag in the least. 

Sonny Gray – He seems capped around 85-90 pitches which isn’t terrible, but the extra $200 for Bassitt seems well-spent. 

Starting Rotation 6.1 Stacking Options 

1. Coors Field – Both the Colorado and Texas offenses will be wildly popular. 
2. Twins against Bruce Zimmermann (Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver, Josh Donaldson, Kyle Garlick, Jorge Polanco) – this stack is very underpriced. 
3. Giants against Andrew Heaney (Evan Longoria, Buster Posey, Austin Slater, Donovan Solano)
4. Dodgers against John Gant (Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, Mookie Betts, Justin Turner)
5. A’s against Marco Gonzales (Mark Canha, Jed Lowrie, Stephen Piscotty, Chad Pinder)
6. Royals against Will Crowe (Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez, Carlos Santana, Andrew Benintendi)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.27

Thursday brings us all-day baseball, as we have five games in the afternoon and then another six in the evening. We’ll be doing some quick notes on the six-game slate and then the full breakdown for the seven-game, so let’s get right to work in the Starting Rotation 5.27!

Starting Rotation 5.27 – Afternoon

Note – The Mets/Rockies game is on the afternoon schedule and it looks as if Marcus Stroman will pitch the first one. Please refer to his writeup from yesterday to read why we like him, and you could potentially make a case to fade Shane Bieber on this slate with Stroman and the next pitcher. 

Pablo Lopez – This could be weird considering the next pitcher on the list, but Lopez might well be my overall favorite option. Philly is 21st against the changeup so far and that is the main pitch for Lopez with 28 strikeouts, a .287 wOBA, and a 24.6% whiff rate. The Phillies are also right on the verge of being a top-five strikeout offense in the majors at 26.2% and this game is in Miami. Lopez has always had very significant home/road splits and this year he’s been lights out in Miami. Through 29.2 IP, he’s accumulated a 0.61 ERA, .222 wOBA, 0.91 WHIP, and a 28% K rate. With Bryce Harper out of this lineup on top of everything else, all the boxes are checked for Lopez. 

Shane Bieber – We all expected some regression for Bieber this season but it’s hit harder than expected to this point. The .354 BABIP continues to drag him down but the 2.93 FIP/2.72 xFIP also gives us hope it quiets down soon. Bieber still has a 35.5% K rate which is the highest on the slate by a wide margin and the Tigers are still sitting second in K rate to righties at 27.1%. Lefty hitters are the main portion of the Detroit lineup with five and they have a .333 wOBA. They also have a 38.6% K rate and a .393 BABIP so you have to feel like those numbers come down at some point. 

Matt Boyd – I still can’t say I love the 4.72 xFIP but Cleveland isn’t a scary lineup to lefty pitching, especially in their current state. They sit 26th in wOBA, 25th in wRC+, 17th in ISO, 26th in OPS, and 27th in OBP. It’s true they may not strike out a ton at 22.1% and Boyd is under 20% for his K rate, but getting six or seven strong innings is what you’re looking for here. Boyd is sporting a 28.2% hard-hit rate and he’s pumping in strikes to start hitters with a 73.1% first-strike rate. Only five pitchers sit above 70% and only Julio Urias is higher than Boyd. He’ll typically see eight righty hitters but even then, Boyd has them held to a .286 wOBA and a .641 OPS. 

Honorable Mention – Tyler Anderson, possibly Kyle Hendricks but he’s been tough to get a hold of this season. I lean towards being fine playing him since his splits to lefties look terribly but include a .458 BABIP and a 3.91 xFIP. I do prefer Boyd for $300 more. 

Stacking Options 

1. Padres against Adrian Houser (Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado (if active), Tommy Pham, Wil Myers) 
2. Cubs against Tyler Anderson since it is the fourth time they’ve seen him (Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Ian Happ)
3. Marlins against Spencer Howard (Jesus Aguilar, Jazz Chisholm, Miguel Rojas, Corey Dickerson, Garrett Cooper)

Starting Rotation 5.27 – Evening 

Note – The Dodgers and Giants game is weird. Neither team has announced a starter, but both would line up for Walker Buehler and Alex Wood. Provided both are announced, I like both and would assume Buehler will carry the ownership up top. The Giants are leading the league in K rate to righties and have seen the offense weakened a bit with the loss of Brandon Belt. Wood is quite simply far too cheap. Yes, the Dodgers can be terrifying against lefty pitching but he’s under $7,000. This is a pitcher that has a 25.5% K rate, a 59.6% ground ball rate, and the ERA/FIP/xFIP trio are all under 3.00. Los Angeles also whiffs over 25% of the time against lefty pitching this year. If Wood can replicate his 17 DK point outing from the last game, I’d be happy at $6,900. We just need to know if they start. 

Chris Bassitt 

The Angels lineup is a lot less intimidating when Mike Trout is on the sideline, not like that’s going out on a limb to say. Bassitt has been great so far with a 3.69 ERA and it’s mashed almost exactly by a 3.66 xFIP. The K rate is almost 26% and batters are having a hard time hitting the ball with authority at a 5.4% barrel rate and a 25.9% hard-hit rate. The swinging-strike rate is a career-best at 11.6% and Bassitt can thank his O-contact rate going from 68.2% last year to 58.9% for that. The righty for Oakland is pretty even as far as splits with lefties sporting the better .301 wOBA. Both sides whiff about 25% and neither side is over a 1.16 WHIP. For the salary, it’s hard to find better consistency. 

Shohei Ohtani

Normally, Ohtani is a building block on any slate for me but I think we need to have some caution here. While the Angels insisted there were no injury concerns, Ohtani’s velocity was down in his last start by 3-6 MPH. That is a huge drop and effectively took the four-seam out of the mix. He threw it 40 times but it was not nearly as efficient and he threw his cutter 32% of the time, knowing the fastball wasn’t there for him. If his four-seam/splitter combo is down 5-6 MPH, Ohtani is not going to be that great of a pitcher. 

Even with the struggles last game, the splitter still only has two hits given up and a 58.2% whiff rate with a .084 wOBA. Oakland’s lineup typically features five righties and that should help Ohtani as well. The right side of the plate only has a .200 wOBA, .401 OPS, and a massive 44.8% K rate. If Ohtani is right, I would absolutely love him here since Oakland is over 24% in K rate to righty pitching. There is a significant risk because there is no way to know where the velocity sits before the game starts. 

Dylan Cease 

I’ll be frank – I had Cease on my list before I saw the DK pricing. It is egregious and I think the salary alone leaves him as a GPP-only player tonight. Having said that, the spot is excellent for him. His slider has been a difference-maker this season with 23 strikeouts already and a whiff rate over 51%. It still gets hit a little bit with a wOBA over .300 but at least it hasn’t given up a home run yet. What we like is the K rate overall at 29% because the Orioles are striking out about 24% of the time. 

Their walk rate is only 8.1% and that is 21st. That is a big help for Cease and his 12.3% walk rate, which is quite high. His xFIP is still only 4.15 so even with some of his weaknesses, the K rate is worth chasing. Baltimore is no higher than 26th in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. I just wish he was an awful lot cheaper and do prefer Buehler, Ohtani, Bassitt, and Wood ahead of Cease. 

Honorable Mention – Sonny Gray, Stephen Strasburg 

Starting Rotation 5.27 Stacking Options 

1. White Sox against Bruce Zimmermann (Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Yermin Mercedes, Nick Madrigal Andrew Vaughn)
2. Cardinals against Seth Frankoff (Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt) 
3. Mariners against Kolby Allard (Mitch Haniger, Ty France, Kyle Lewis)
4. Rangers against Chris Flexen (Adolis Garcia, Joey Gallo, Nate Lowe, Willie Calhoun)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.27 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.25

Before we get rolling, just wanted to say a huge thank you to Brian for covering pitching Monday. He’s a pretty cool dude and came in very clutch for me, and it’s much appreciated. Tonight brings us no less than four ace pitchers and about six more that are either on the verge or at least their own team’s ace. That makes for a fun time for me and I’m not sure I’ll be spending down too much tonight. Let’s get to work for the Starting Rotation 5.25 and see who we’re going to target for us to find those green screens once again! 

Starting Rotation 5.25 – Main Targets 

Jacob deGrom 

I’m not particularly concerned with the injury at this point since deGrom tortured the St. Louis minor league team with no setbacks. If the Mets were concerned at all, they wouldn’t be letting him pitch and there’s no reason for us to fade him. He leads the majors in just about everything we could ask for, including a 46.1% K rate and a 21.6% swinging-strike rate. All three of his pitches boast a 36.6% whiff rate or higher. 

His 0.68 ERA is backed up with a 1.08 FIP and a 1.77 xFIP, so there’s not even that much concern there. Unsurprisingly, Colorado is much worse on the road with a 26.1% K rate and the 30th ranking in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. There just isn’t much left to be said here. I suppose since he only threw 41 pitches, he could be somewhat limited but I’m not playing it like that tonight. Play him and let’s move on. 

Corbin Burnes 

Regardless of what offense he’s facing, the DK salary of $9,100 is flat-out absurd. I’m assuming deGrom (rightly) gets all the attention which could leave Burns much lower in popularity than he should be. Yes, the Padres are a tough matchup and they just don’t strike out at 20.1% but Burnes has been a different animal this year. His K rate is just under 45% so far this season and the ground ball rate when teams aren’t striking out is 51.3%. What’s pretty interesting with that metric is the Padres are quietly fourth in ground ball rate at 46.6%. His hard-hit rate is also down at 21.8% and teams just can’t get the barrel to the ball that much at a 6.4%. 

The cutter for Burnes continues to be just other-worldly with a .179 average, .212 wOBA, 33.5% whiff rate, and 35 of 67 strikeouts. The slider, curve, and change are all over a 58% whiff rate on top of that and helps explain why the K rate is so high. If he comes in much less popular than deGrom, I’m not willing to say he’s a “pivot” in the normal sense because deGrom is the main play on this slate. However, in MME formats you can take some chances and it could open the door for a double ace approach that is (possibly, possibly not with the ridiculous salary) contrarian on this slate. 

Kevin Gausman

If Burnes isn’t the most disrespected pitcher at his salary, Gausman may well be next in line. He’s started nine games and hit at least 20 DK in eight of them and is averaging over 25 per contest. On the last main slate he pitched, he was priced at $7,800 and scored 27.1 DK. His past two starts haven’t been on the main slates but he’s scored over 30, so naturally, DK moved his price down to $7,200. You may not know it by the attention he gets, but Gausman is rocking a 29.6% K rate and a 1.66 ERA. The FIP/xFIP combo is 2.48 and 3.21 so that’s not crazy high to cause a ton of concern. He is also 12th in the swinging-strike rate at 14.8% and 31.4%, respectively. 

The four-seam is ranked as a top-five fastball in the majors and the 7.8 rating for his splitter is tops by a whopping 5.6. Granted, it’s not a common pitch but the splitter has been phenomenal. It has 44 strikeouts out of 67 (the four-seam has all of the other ones), a .165 wOBA, and a 47.5% whiff rate. It’s interesting to see him be slightly worse to lefties at a .233 wOBA since he leans on that main two pitches almost all the time to lefties. It also tells us that Gausman has been elite when that’s the worst side. Lefties whiff 33.9% of the time and Gausman should face seven if Arizona plays a normal lineup. 

Lucas Giolito 

We’ve said for a while that there’s an ace in Giolito, even if that version was hiding for a few starts. Well, it came out and shoved for eight innings and 39 DK points last start and the price does not match the potential upside. To be clear, I will play Burnes for $400 more most of the way, but if the field goes that same route Giolito could get lost in the shuffle. If we’re talking about this year’s splits, Giolito could face some issues as righties have a .349 wOBA and .822 OPS this season. However, that might be a little misleading as the xFIP is 3.44 because his HR/9 is 2.63. That tends to happen when the HR/FB rate is 25.9%, and not likely to continue. 

One of the largest culprits of the up and down nature of Giolito’s season so far is the four-seam. In 2020, it finished at a 29% whiff rate, .260 wOBA, and a .201 average with 48 of 97 strikeouts. This year has seen it come down to an 18.9% whiff rate, .321 wOBA, .208 average with 16 of 61 strikeouts. Additionally, he’s already given up three home runs on it compared to four last season. Seeing St. Louis rank so low against that pitch is encouraging for Giolito, especially if he’s not popular. 

Clayton Kershaw 

Is the spot horrible on paper? No doubt. Not only do the Astros destroy the slider as a team, but they are in the top-five in every offensive category aside from ISO with just a 16.9% K rate. Normally, I won’t even give lefties against Houston a second glance. Clayton Kershaw is not the normal everyday lefty and his salary is an inexplicable $8,000 on DK. His K rate of 29% is the best it has been since 2017 and the HR/9 is also the best since 2016, so there is a very clear path to success here even if it’s filled with danger. 

Houston is by far the best team against the slider but Kershaw’s has been just video game level good this year. Despite throwing it as his main pitch, it has generated a 45.4% whiff rate, .249 wOBA, and a .189 average with 51 of his 65 strikeouts. The .311 wOBA to righties is skewed a little bit by the home runs, which seem to be unlucky so far. Kershaw has a 2.98 xFIP and a 30.2% K rate to righties while suffering through a .333 BABIP. There is really no reason for him to be priced so low. There is a great chance he goes out and does Kershaw things and if folks don’t play him, they question why they didn’t go after an $8,000 Kershaw. 

Honorable Mention – Max Scherzer, Joe Musgrove, Rich Hill, Cole Irvin, Kyle Freeland for the bold 

Starting Rotation 5.25 Stacking Options 

1. Rays against Brad Keller (Randy Arozarena, Joey Wendle, Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe, Mike Zunino)
2. Yankees against Steven Matz (Aaron Judge, Kyle Higashioka, Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez)
3. Giants against Corbin Martin (Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Mike Tauchman) 
4. Angels against Hyeon-Jong Yang (Anthony Rendon, Shohei Ohtani, Jose Rojas, Justin Upton)
5. Cleveland against Tarik Skubal (Jose Ramirez, Jordan Luplow, Josh Naylor)
6. Twins against Dean Kremer (Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff, Max Kepler, Josh Donaldson)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.25 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.23

We have a 10 game slate for Sunday and while it’s not exactly brimming with big names, it does present us with some pretty fun options. There are multiple cheap starters worth looking into today which could help unlock just about any stack we want. Let’s get rolling and talk about who we should be targeting to find those green screens once again in Starting Rotation 5.23!

Starting Rotation 5.23 – Main Targets 

Freddy Peralta 

One of the many facets that pop off the page for Peralta is both his main pitches rank inside the top 12 in the majors. The four-seam is 12th and the slider is sixth in their categories, and they have combined for 75 of his 79 strikeouts. Neither pitch has yielded a wOBA above .269 and they both also have a 32.4% whiff rate or higher. So while the Reds rank well against the fastball, I’m not that worried because he’s also third in K rate at 39.7%. The swinging-strike rate is also seventh at 15.4%. He doesn’t even throw the changeup much but it’s still nasty –

The Reds lineup could potentially work in his favor as well. With Joey Votto and Mike Moustakas on the IL, Cincinnati should put forth five righties and the pitcher spot. Peralta has struck out that side of the plate to a 47.9% rate and has a 1.94 xFIP. I would much rather play him than Zack Wheeler against Boston at this salary range. 

Hyun Jin Ryu 

Oh, look, another lefty facing the Rays! Much like yesterday, I’m already interested due to the strikeout upside the Rays have shown when they face lefty pitching, over 30%. Through his eight starts, Ryu has shown a 2.94 FIP and a 3.08 xFIP, which gives us confidence in the 2.51 ERA. His K rate has come down slightly to 24.5% but the walks are down under 3% and the WHIP is under 1.00. It’s been very difficult to get a hard hit against Ryu as that rate is only 23.1% and his swinging-strike rate is right in line with his last four seasons at 11.7%. 

Righties have a .285 wOBA against Ryu but he also uses the four-seam/cutter/changeup mix mostly to the right side. Those three pitches have accounted for 39 of 45 strikeouts which leads me to believe the 22.6% rate he has right now is not here to stay. Ryu’s O-Contact is at 68.5% right now compared to his 61.7% rate so this could be the game where the K rate catches up to everything else a little bit. 

Max Fried 

Since coming back from injury, Fried has started three games and scored 22, 16, and 23 DK points. During those three starts, he’s averaging a 27.7% K rate, a 1.00 WHIP, and a .253 WHIP. Even if we zoom back and look at the whole season, the 5.46 ERA does not make sense with the 4.22 FIP and 3.92 xFIP in tow. His hard-hit rate is 25.3% and Fried has generated a 12.6% swinging-strike rate overall. Both the slider and curve have generated a whiff rate over 36.5% each and has 24 of 32 strikeouts thus far. 

The Pirates have struggled against lefties this season with a 24.5% K rate and were just handled fairly easily by Drew Smyly, who is not the same caliber pitcher at this point in their careers. Pittsburgh also ranks 28th in wOBA and OPS along with 26th in ISO, so the spot really works out well for Fried as he finds his footing in the 2021 season. 

Casey Mize 

It’s possible that Mize is starting to figure things out but I do think we should approach him with some caution. Any result that comes against Seattle has to be weighted since they are a dreadful offense. Still, it can’t be a bad thing for Mize’s confidence to go out and shove for almost eight innings. The K rate lacks at 17.8% but he flashed upside with eight last game and the 53% ground ball rate is very solid (it ranks eighth in the majors). Both the four-seam and slider have a whiff rate right around 27% and past one really poor start against these Royals, Mize hasn’t been all that bad. 

Since he’s faced the Royals’ offense since the disaster and posted a serviceable start, I feel a little better about him here. The .297 wOBA to the right side of the plate is his best rate and Kansas City plays five typically. Their most dangerous players are on that side as well for the most part. The K rate has been slightly lower at 16.8% but sometimes you have to take a leap with young pitchers. I wouldn’t go here in anything other than GPP but Mize has such a pedigree that I’m excited anytime he strings together three good starts. 

Kris Bubic 

The 23-year-old lefty is back on the mound for the Royals today and he’s certainly earned the spot so far. In 18.2 IP, he’s sporting a 0.96 ERA with a 3.10 FIP and a 4.50 xFIP. While it’s quite clear he won’t keep an ERA under 1.00 and will suffer some regression, his price has not come up nearly enough yet. Bubic has generated a ground ball rate of 59.6%, helping mitigate the 12.9% walk rate (it was 9.9% last season and hasn’t been an issue in the minors very much at all). He has also only been hit hard 17% of the time so far and his changeup has a 33.3% whiff rate. It has eight of the 12 strikeouts and while Bubic is only at 20% of this K rate, he’s only $5,000. 

We talked in Friday’s article about how the Tigers have improved a bit offensively lately, but they are still a spot to attack. Bubic has three straight games of at least 14 DK and has been adding to his pitch count, working it up to 85 in the last start. There’s not much of a way around the 5.22 xFIP to righties, which is a concern but it does look better for his career at 4.48. The career K rate to that side of the plate is also 21.1%, more than acceptable at this salary and against a team that whiffs over 30% to lefties on the season. 

Honorable Mention – Cristian Javier, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Yamamoto but I’m much more likely to use Bubic

Stacking Options 

1. Nationals against Matt Harvey (Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Josh Bell, Josh Harrison)
2. Astros against Mike Foltynewicz (Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley)
3. Cleveland against J.A. Happ (Jose Ramirez, Jordan Luplow, Harold Ramirez)
4. Blue Jays against Josh Fleming (Vlad Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Bo Bichette, Jonathan Davis)
5. Orioles against Patrick Corbin (Trey Mancini, Austin Hays, Anthony Santander, Pedro Severino, Ryan Mountcastle)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.23 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.22

We get the normal split slate on Saturday with seven in the afternoon and six in the evening, so there is plenty of baseball to choose from! The early slate brings one of the bigger names to toe the rubber in the league but there are options behind him. The evening slate is pretty similar in that there’s one that could garner some serious attention but isn’t an absolute slam dunk. The difference is the other options on the evening slate are pretty rough. Let’s dig into Starting Rotation 5.22 and figure out who we need to be looking at and why to find green screens for both slates! 

Starting Rotation 5.22 – Afternoon

Shane Bieber

I was a little excited when I saw Bieber because he’s been a bit of an odd pitcher this season. The ERA has bumped up from 1.63 to 3.17 this year and he’s just been more hittable, as the WHIP went from 0.87 last year to 1.22 this season. Now, the walk rate is up almost 2% but that wouldn’t explain everything, especially since the K rate is still above 36%. One of the biggest differences is just somewhat bad luck, as the BABIP is .341. The jumps have come from the four-seam’s average of .253 up from .210 last year and his curve has gone from .095 to .200. The whiff rate on both pitches are also down, which might explain the zone rate siting at 49.5% after 42.6% last year.

What this all tells me is Bieber has simply had some bad luck so far and there’s nothing to get too carried away with. Maybe he’s a little bit riskier but hitters are making far less contact when they swing at pitches outside of the zone, 32.1% in 2021 compared to 41% in 2020. Bieber should face five righties and he’s been better to that side of the plate with a .287 wOBA. On the flip side, lefties have a higher wOBA but also strike out at a 40.5% and the xFIP to both sides is under 2.75. The bottom line is I’ll still play Bieber with limited fear.

Lance McCullers

Based on the last six game logs, McCullers would be due a big 30+ DK point game as he’s alternated between scoring in the teens and then into the ’30s. Anyways, he’s sporting a 27.7% K rate thus far and the 1.07 WHIP would be the best he’s ever produced. The 55.5% ground ball rate is fourth in the league and Texas is third against righty pitching, which is a nice fit for McCullers. His curve also remains a significant weapon with the second-best rating behind Julio Urias, a .197 wOBA given up, and a 37.2% whiff rate.

He throws it to lefties almost exclusively so Texas playing four helps him out. The splits overall would tell us that no style of lineup should hinder McCullers as both sides of the plate are between .260 and .265 for the wOBA. They also both whiff right about 27.5% and Texas is still at a 26.8% K rate to righty pitching. I don’t particularly want to pay the premium for Sonny Gray and would rather just play McCullers in just as good of a spot. 

Pablo Lopez 

I’m honestly not even bothering listing the ranks for the Mets because their lineup is unrecognizable right now. I mean, it looks like a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup after losing Pete Alonso yesterday as well. 

That is really bad folks and Lopez should be able to find his footing after two sub-par starts in a row. He’s not going to bowl you over with strikeout upside at 22.7% but he gets a good deal of ground balls at 44.9% and the hard-hit rate is under 31%. The changeup and four-seam are doing virtually all of the strikeout damage with 41 of 46 on the season. Perhaps the best facet for Lopez is he’s at home, which has always mattered for him and continues into this season. 

The righty has thrown 22.2 innings at home and 26.1 on the road. When he’s in Miami, the ERA is 0.79 and on the road, it balloons up to 5.13. His career difference is over three runs a game, so this is not a big surprise. The K rate jumps up to 27.2% and the HR/9 is 0.40, so he’s really not all that expensive when looking through that lens. 

Honorable Mention – Sonny Gray but my goodness the DK salary, Matt Boyd if you prefer not to spend on pitching in both slots. You can roll the dice with Brady Singer but if one of his two pitches isn’t working, it’s over for him. 

Stacking Options 

1. Braves against Mitch Keller and whatever is left of the Pirates bullpen after last night ( Ronald Acuna, Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, Freddie Freeman, William Contreras)
2. Nationals against Bruce Zimmermann (Trea Turner, Josh Harrison, Yan Gomes, Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman)
3. Orioles against Jon Lester (Trey Mancini, Austin Hays, Pedro Severino)
4. Astros against Jordan Lyles (Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley) – this one will be tough to make work with high-end pitching. 

Starting Rotation 5.22 – Evening 

Walker Buehler 

Buehler is coming off an excellent start in a spot that could have gone south for him, so that does help my interest tonight. It also helps that the rest of the options are not very good and he’s the clear-cut number one option. It is interesting to note that the cutter gives up the highest wOBA at .327 and that is close to his second-most used pitch this season. 

It has also given up two home runs so that stands out as a potential trouble spot but Buehler also exhibits a 27.5% K rate, a FIP and xFIP combo under 3.55, and a 30.8% CSW. His hard-hit rate is not ideal at nearly 40% but at least the ground ball rate is 40.9%. I’m also not in love with the .298 wOBA, 1.64 HR/9, and 23.9% K rate to the left side of the plate but he’s still one of the lead options on the evening. 

Robbie Ray 

The last game out for Ray was sort of what I think we can expect from this point on. He gave up four runs and got taken out of the yard multiple times, but he also only walked one and whiffed nine through just 5.2 IP. He’s been super consistent on his pitch count with every start but the first one of the season over 90 pitches. His 6.6% walk rate is ridiculous given his career rates and it’s all on the four-seam. It has given up seven homers but it also has 31 of 48 strikeouts for Ray. 

His 28.9% K rate would be top-20 if he qualified and we talked yesterday about how much the Rays are striking out against lefty pitching. Ray is at his best for the K rate against righties at an even 30% and the xFIP is 3.59. I believe he’ll always give up more than that metric would indicate just because of the fastball-heavy approach, but at this rate, you can live with it. With Tampa sitting 21st in ISO and over a 31% K rate to lefty pitching, Ray checks the boxes we look for. 

Adbert Alzolay 

I think we could see Alzolay pick up some popularity at this price because any pitcher beneath his salary is seriously questionable. Alzolay is over 27% in K rate and his xFIP of 3.31 tells us the 4.62 ERA is a little underserved with a 24.2% HR/FB rate. He’s also cut his walk rate from 14.9% to 4.9% so the drop in K rate has been worth it for him. The 13.4% swinging-strike rate and CSW are 13.4% and 30.5%, both of which are career-highs. 

The slider has been incredible with a .137 average, .171 wOBA, and a 38.6% whiff rate. It also has 27 of 35 strikeouts so far and even though St. Louis has hit the pitch well, Alzolay’s would rank fourth if he had the innings to qualify. He has also dominated righties with a .208 wOBA, 31.9% K rate, and a 0.68 WHIP. With the Cardinals being mostly righty in their lineup, this spot rates well for Azolay. 

Honorable Mention – Chriss Bassitt after he came back down to Earth a little bit last start and Shane McClanahan solely for his strikeout upside at 30.6%. 

Stacking Options 

1. Boston against Spencer Howard (Rafael Devers, JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts, Bobby Dalbec)
2. San Diego against Justus Sheffield (Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Austin Nola, Trent Grisham)
3. Chicago against Miles Mikolas (Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Joe Pederson)
4. Oakland against Dylan Bundy (Matt Olson, Mark Canha, Ramon Laureano, Seth Brown)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.22 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!