MLB DFS Top Plays

Starting Rotation 7.4

We only have nine games on Sunday for our main slate but we have some very strong options for our pitchers up top. Diving into the value range gets a whole lot trickier even with a recognizable name near the bottom. Let’s talk about him and the rest of the gang in the Starting Rotation 7.4 and lay the foundation for our green screens! 

Starting Rotation 7.4 – Main Targets

Freddy Peralta 

I’d have to imagine Peralta is the most popular option on this slate. The Pirates continue to not only be the worst team in the league against the fastball, but they rate at a -47 on FanGraphs while the Cards at 29th rate at -25.6. That’s just an enormous gap. They’re not real hot against the slider either and for Peralta, those two pitches have 113 of 122 strikeouts on the year and they both have at least a 31.2% whiff rate. His four-seam is ranked 10th on FanGraphs and the slider is 11th and this pitch combo is a lethal weapon. 

Pittsburgh might not be the highest K rate team at just 22.4% on the season but Peralta matches that with a 36.2% K rate of his own. The swinging-strike rate of 14.4% ranks 13th and he has both sides of the plate under a .250 wOBA. The K rate against lefties is “just” 29.3% while it’s over 44% against the right side. The Buccos should have four of each handedness in their lineup and it’s hard not to like him as the top option. 

Robbie Ray 

It’s Adam in one corner and Brian in another because I’ll be picking on the Rays today. Now when I say “pick on”, let’s understand that Ray has some significant risk. Tampa ranks well against the fastball and that pitch continues to be interesting for Ray. He’s throwing it 57% of the time and it has given up 12 home runs already. It also has 54 strikeouts with a 24% whiff rate. The slider could be the key for Ray in this spot as it carries a 47.5% whiff rate and 50 strikeouts of its own. The strikeout is king and Tampa is only 0.5% away from leading the league in K rate against lefties at 26.4%. 

Past that, they are looking to be on the stronger side against lefties as they rank 13th in OBP, 14th in slugging, wOBA, and OPS, 12th in ISO, and 11th in wRC+. Tampa is also projected to have three lefties and that would help Ray and his 2.18 xFIP and it’s not like the 3.38 mark to righties is poor. Do I think Ray gets through this one unscathed? Nope, but he also might strike out 10-12 hitters and that’s worth rolling the dice on. 

Lucas Giolito

For all the times I’ve played Giolito this season, I’m pretty much locked into playing him every fifth day to capture that next 30+ DK start. It could well be here and he’s underpriced again and I’m not making much of one strikeout last time out. He went a week between starts and the previous three starts had totaled 25 strikeouts through 18 IP. In the last start, his spin rate was down a bit but the one pitch it wasn’t was the changeup. He only recorded a 21% whiff rate in that start compared to 37.7% on the season. It was a little odd that the change was his primary pitch last start but I don’t think it was anything more than an oddball start. 

His K rate overall is 29.4% and the swinging-strike rate is 15.2% which is inside the top 10 in the league. I continue to believe that he’s better than he’s shown through the results for the most part and the Tigers are still striking out at a league-leading rate. It also helps that they should have 5-6 lefties in the lineup because that’s been the sweet spot for Giolito. He’s held them to a .252 wOBA, 3.61 xFIP, and a 1.02 WHIP. I do grant you that Giolito has two of three months with a wOBA over .300 and an ERA over 4.00. He may not be the pitcher we saw in the short 2020 season. He’s still under $9,000 and that’s too cheap for a pitcher we have seen approach 40 DK points twice within his last 10 starts. 

Starting Rotation Special

Yesterday’s didn’t go so well but today is a new day and my read as of Saturday night would lead me to believe this particular pitcher isn’t going to get much traction. For one, his past two starts have been under five DK points. He does have just a 21.6% K rate but he also checks in cheaper than one other option we’ll discuss in Honorable Mention who has a lower K rate. The swinging-strike rate for this pitcher is 12% and that is the best mark in his career by a full 2%. His sinker and cutter are both up by about 4% in the whiff rate and he’s introduced a splitter instead of the changeup he featured in 2019. It has the best wOBA of any pitch at .186 and the best whiff rate at 39.8%. 

His ground ball rate is over 53% and the offense he’s facing is sitting 10th in ground ball rate themselves. They also sit ninth in K rate at 25% and even though the Special is slightly worse to righty hitters at a .293 wOBA, his K rate jumps up over 24%. I believe that Marcus Stroman has the chance to match or even potentially out-pitch Gerrit Cole today, and the $8,100 salary leaves him kind of in a no-man’s land. That could work to our benefit and leave him under 10% today. 

Starting Rotation 7.4 Honorable Mention

Gerrit Cole – We have to talk about him on this slate but I will continue to fade as long as he remains top dollar. The K rate through June was only 25.4% and the xFIP jumped to 4.05 along with a 4.65 ERA. It’s obviously not hard to put the pieces together and realize that these metrics coincided with the MLB cracking down on the sticky stuff. You can make the argument he’ll likely come in at a fraction of the popularity of Peralta but for me, this is a case where I’ll eat the pitching chalk up top and get different somewhere else. 

Wade Miley – Did I ever think I’d even look twice at Miley at $8,600 on DK? Not so much, but the Cubs simply offer too much strikeout upside to totally ignore at 26.5%. Miley only sits at 20.5% on the season which is not particularly what I’d want at this salary. He does sport a 53.3% ground ball rate which is fifth in the league and Chicago is third in ground ball rate against lefty pitching. The cutter/changeup/four-seam mix has 65 of 67 strikeouts on the season and the Cubs rank no higher than 14th against those three pitches. I can see a path to success but I’m just not sure I really love that price tag. 

Charlie Morton – I have not gotten along with Charlie Morton at all this season so maybe that’s all you need to know that he’ll succeed today. I’m guessing he’s going to be the chalk as the SP2 on DK since he’s under $8,000 and the Marlins strike out over 25% of the time to righty pitching. What’s super interesting is Morton uses his sinker and cutter almost exclusively to righty hitters. They have a wOBA of .399 and .425 each and have combined to give up four of the eight home runs. You would think that would mean he’s worse against righty hitters but the xFIP is 3.29 and the wOBA is .263, both of which are better than lefty hitters. Miami should have six righties and I think Morton and his 27.5% K rate is playable in both formats, especially in cash as potential chalk. 

Zach Thompson – I can honestly say I’m not sure what to with Thompson here. He still shrieks regression with a 1.50 ERA compared to a 3. xFIP and his curveball and cutter combo have 20 of 25 strikeouts. They have at least a 30.9% whiff rate and wOBA’s under .235. His xFIP to righties is 3.89 and the K rate comes down to 30.6% but I can’t help but feel the more film teams get, the tougher the road gets for Thompson. This will be the second time the Braves have seen him as well, so I’d be comfortable fading. If he turns out to be chalk ahead of Morton, play him in cash and call it a day. 

Starting Rotation 7.4 Primary Stack 

We attacked the White Sox with pitching yesterday but that will not be the case today. The tables have turned and Chicago draws rookie Matt Manning who has a 5.72 xFIP, 6.09 FIP, and an ERA over 8.00. His primary three pitches are the fastball/slider/changeup mix and all three pitches have a hard-hit rate over 54% and the first two have wOBA’s over .400 and ISO’s over .345. I’m looking at Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Gavin Sheets, and Brian Goodwin as he’s racked up a .425 ISO and .505 wOBA in 48 PA against righty pitching thus far. I don’t think we need to be super picky in this stack until Manning shows he’s remotely capable at the MLB level. Even hitters like Andrew Vaughn are in play and if Yoan Moncada and Yasmani Grandal play, it’s really all systems go. 

Starting Rotation 7.4 Secondary Stacks 

• Astros against Triston McKenzie ( we likely have some super cheap options to go with a White Sox stack since Yordan Alvarez is out and Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker are day-to-day). 
• Twins against Brad Keller
• Brewers against Tyler Anderson 
• Padres against Vince Velasquez
• Royals against Kenta Maeda 
• Mets as a mini-stack against Cole if you want to get super crazy 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.4 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 7.3

It is Split Slate Saturday and we have six games in the afternoon and seven in the evening! That’s a whole lot of MLB action and more chances for us to win some money. The Afternoon slate has some solid options at every price point while the evening….well, the evening looks ghastly. For that reason, we’ll do the full breakdown in the afternoon and the notes in the evening. Let’s go to work in the Starting Rotation 7.3! 

Starting Rotation 7.3 – Afternoon Targets 

Yu Darvish 

This spot profiles extremely well for Darvish today. He gets the Phillies who whiff 24.9% of the time and even though the wOBA is higher to righties for Darvish at .273, the K rate jumps to 33.7%. That’s what we like to see when Darvish should face five righties plus the pitcher. Philly is 12th against the cutter but that doesn’t destroy this matchup in my eyes.

The odd part about Darvish is he uses the cutter the most of any pitch but it easily has the worst wOBA of his mix at .421. What balances things out is every other pitch is under a .205 wOBA and has at least 13 strikeouts. Darvish is rocking a 30.5% K rate overall and a 12.4% swinging-strike rate. He is the only pitcher averaging over 20 DK points on the slate but that doesn’t mean others don’t have some serious upside.

Tyler Mahle

Is Mahle expensive on this slate? Sure is. Does that mean I’m not interested in a pitcher that sports a 30% K rate on the season against the Cubs and their league-leading 26.7% K rate against righties? No, it does not. Sonny Gray whiffed eight yesterday in just five innings of work, on a pitch count. Mahle is just two starts removed from a 35.3 DK point outing with 12 strikeouts and he’s got that same potential today. The xFIP is only 3.51, the fly-ball rate is under 38%, and the swinging-strike rate is 12%. His four-seam has 64 strikeouts out of the 105 total Mahle has on the season and it has a 28.9% whiff rate. Chicago sitting 20th against that pitch really should help Mahle today and his fastball is ranked inside the top 20 in FanGraphs rating. 

Some folks may want to point out the bloated home ERA but he has faced the Cubs once before, Arizona, St. Louis, San Francisco, Colorado, and Atlanta. He did stumble in the Rockies’ start but past that, it’s hard to fault him against some of those offenses. This version of the Chicago offense should have five lefties in it plus the pitcher spot. That should work out for Mahle and his .257 wOBA, 33.9% K rate, and his 3.33 xFIP. He will be on my radar today. 

Kyle Muller 

Right off the bat, we can say that we shouldn’t expect another 30+ DK points from Muller. We also don’t need near that amount because DK only moved his price by $600 to $5,300 after that start. That’s…an interesting choice. His secondary pitches are standing out in whiff rate so far with the slider sitting at 48.1% and the curve sitting at 53.3%. Of course, those aren’t guaranteed to stay that high for the young lefty but it’s a very positive start. Across 65 curves, he has yet to allow a hit and it only has one BBE. Miami has a 27.5% K rate to lefties and I almost wrote up Drew Smyly last night but there was too much fear with regression. Muller only has a 3.72 xFIP to go with a 32.5% K rate and a 15.7% swinging-strike rate. He’s simply wayyyyyy too cheap for the metrics that he’s put on paper so far.

Starting Rotation Special 

To me, this really shouldn’t be a Special play but I’m betting this pitcher doesn’t catch much attention, especially if Muller is popular. His last start was one of his best on the season but the previous three were a little uneven as far results. This lefty continued to improve in June, posting a 3.14 ERA, .293 wOBA, 3.49 xFIP, and a 30.8% K rate along with a 0.94 HR/9. Everything except the K rate was the best mark this year for any month and I don’t think we’ll whine too much about a K rate over 30%. 

His slider has a whiff rate over 38% and the changeup is at a rate of 54.1%. The three pitches after his four-seam all have a wOBA under .270 on the year which are all great signs. Five hitters that he’s slated to face have an ISO under .070 and a wOBA no higher than .330. All five of those hitters also feature a K rate over 22% and four are over 26%. In June, this offense hit the skids against lefties with a 26% K rate. They were also below league average in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Call me a sucker for pitchers with a pedigree, but I’m playing Tarik Skubal once again.

Just look at the bottom of this lineup. 

Starting Rotation 7.3 Afternoon Honorable Mention 

Sandy Alcantara – We don’t always love attacking the Braves offense but the marlins are going to need any length they can get from him today after Pablo Lopez got ejected one pitch into yesterday’s game. His K rate has come down to 21.7% which presents a bit of an issue at a salary over $9,000. The K rate to righties does jump to 25% but it’s still not enough to be a main target with Mahle just a little bit more. 

Eric Lauer – I’m not totally convinced on the ceiling here, but Lauer hasn’t been that bad in his 44 IP so far. Sure, the ERA is 4.50 but the xFIP does come down to 3.93 and Pittsburgh is dead last in ISO, slugging, OPS, and wOBA to lefties on the year. They don’t strike out a lot at just 22.4% but Lauer could go 6-7 strong innings here with 4-5 strikeouts. 

Starting Rotation 7.3 Afternoon Primary Stack 

Say it with me, kids – Milwaukee. Brewers. Cody Ponce takes the mound for the Bucs today and the Brewers sure look like they are in a smash spot. Ponce has only faced 50 lefties and 54 righties in his career but lefties sit at a .446 wOBA, 3.97 HR/9, 8.57 FIP, and a 6.68 xFIP. The lefty trio of Jace Peterson, Christian Yelich, and Omar Narvaez look fantastic in this spot as all three are over a .360 wOBA and .145 ISO. Ponce uses the fastball about 32% against that side of the plate and all of those hitters are over a .399 wOBA. I’m looking to kick in Willy Adames as well with a .243 ISO as a Brewer against righty pitching. The best part of this stack is you could likely even go double-ace approach if we get the right value pieces from other teams. If not, we can pick one of Darvish or Mahle and pair them with Muller or the Special. 

Starting Rotation 7.3 Afternoon Secondary Stacks 

• Reds against Adbert Alzolay (lefties from the lineup)
• Padres against Zach Eflin 
• Tigers against Dallas Keuchel 
• Royals against Griffin Jax 

Starting Rotation 7.3 – Evening Targets 

Clayton Kershaw – Buckle up everyone because this slate is rough for pitching. Of the 14 total starters, there are only 3-5 pitchers that I’d even consider after a glance. Kershaw is of course going to be one of them, despite the difficult matchup on paper. He’s priced at his normal spot because he racked up a massive 43 DK point score last time out against the Cubs offense that can’t stop striking out. The Nationals are a different breed statistically. 

They rank sixth in average, second in OBP, 11th in slugging, 10th in OPS, 21st in ISO (that helps), eighth in wOBA, and finally fifth in wRC+. Does that mean Kershaw can’t succeed? Absolutely not. We just have to note that Washington is typically very good against lefties and they rank 10th against the slider this year at -6.1. Yes, that is the 10th best mark against sliders. Kershaw has a K rate over 30.5% and a swinging-strike rate of 16.5%. The .302 wOBA to righties looks a little scary but the K rate bumps up to 31% to that side and the xFIP is 2.75. On a slate bereft of options, anchoring to Kershaw is appealing. 

Jake Odorizzi – He’s just pumping in fastballs right now, throwing one 61.2% of the time which is 20% more than last year. It has generated a 25.2% whiff rate and just a .226 wOBA, which are both impressive for one that sits around 92 MPH. Odorizzi hasn’t pitched a ton this year due to injury but both sides of the plate are hovering around a 27% strikeout rate. He does carry a 4.46 xFIP to lefties but this Cleveland offense has shown issues all season long. They are in the bottom half of the league in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. They are also 21st against the fastball so Odorizzi makes all the sense in the world. 

Marco Gonzales – Do I even really like this play? Not exactly, and Texas does strike out less to lefties at a 23.3% rate. They are also 22nd in OPS, 28th in ISO, 23rd in wOBA, and wRC+. Additionally, Texas is dead last in fly-ball rate against lefties at just 29.9%. They are the only team under 31% this season. Gonzales does have a 5.08 xFIP to righty hitters but if Texas can’t get the ball in the air, that metric will matter a lot less. Every pitch in his arsenal has at least a 22% whiff rate except for the sinker but Gonzales is cheap enough to consider even with a 20.3% K rate this year. 

Starting Rotation 7.3 Evening Honorable Mention 

Alex Cobb – Playing Cobb is playing Russian Roulette with your lineup because there is no telling what might happen. The metrics would tell us he’s been horrifically unlucky so far. His 5.09 ERA is WAY beyond the 2.65 FIP and 2.79 xFIP. He’s the reverse Jon Lester, basically. Cobb has gotten smoked in some starts but has flashed 30+ DK upside in others. 

The sinker and curve don’t help him a whole lot with a .336 wOBA and .338 wOBA respectively, but the splitter has the best whiff rate of any pitch at 36.9%. Baltimore is 22nd against that pitch and even their righty-heavy lineup doesn’t exactly help us solve the equation for Cobb. His .364 wOBA appears awful but the .422 BABIP has to normalize and the FIP/xFIP combo is 2.86/2.58. He could prove to be a very interesting pivot to Kershaw but the outcomes are truly anything. 

Sammy Long – We’re talking just a handful of starts and Long has been up and down, much like any rookie pitcher. In his 20 IP, the wOBA to lefties is .204 and the K rate is up to 32%. The xFIP is fine at 4.07 and Arizona should have six lefties plus the pitcher spot in their lineup. Long has leaned on the four-seam/curve/changeup mix so far. His curve has 11 of 19 strikeouts, a .137 wOBA, and a 31.9% whiff rate while the change has a 33.3% whiff rate as well. Arizona did get to him once but Long has some promise thus far and he is worth a look on this slate. 

Starting Rotation 7.3 Evening Primary Stack

Garrett Richards has gotten destroyed since the MLB crackdown on sticky stuff and his ERA for June was 7.16 with a .443 wOBA and a 5.12 xFIP. The WHIP is over 2.00 and either side of the plate is well in play. The top end of the A’s aren’t cheap but they could turn into a great pivot from Coors Field. Richards has a hard-hit rate of 49% on his fastball with an average distance of 294 feet. Ramon Laureano, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Chad Pinder, Jed Lowrie, and Sean Murphy ALL have ISO’s over .255 and wOBA’s over .325 against that pitch. Richards throws it over 48% to each side of the plate and in his last four starts, he’s gotten tagged for 17 ER, six HR, and a total of -3.7 DK points. 

Starting Rotation 7.3 Evening Secondary Stacks 

• Coors Field 
• Angels against Jorge Lopez
• Giants against Jake Faria
• Red Sox against Cole Irvin 
• Astros against Eli Morgan 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 7.1

We have seven games scheduled for tonight but there is one game already under threat of rain, so we’ll have to see how that develops. The good news is we have two stud pitchers at the top and it will be interesting to see if we can fit them both or if we have to choose a cheaper option to pair up with one of them. Let’s talk about all our options tonight in the Starting Rotation 7.1 and lay the foundation for green screens once again! 

Starting Rotation 7.1 – Main Targets 

Jacob deGrom

I get that deGrom was very average last time out but that was nothing more than an outlier in my eyes. His spin rate (not accusing, just addressing) was not anything that raised concerns in that start so there’s no fear there. Sometimes, he’s just not the fantasy monster we know and love. That doesn’t mean he shouldn’t get right back to dominance tonight in Atlanta. They are eighth in K rate to righties on the season at 25.2% and deGrom just got them for six strikeouts in five innings two starts ago. That was even with a pretty strict pitch count. 

Even in his worst start, deGrom generated a 39% whiff rate and a 36% CSW. The most noticeable change was he used the slider 53% of the time to only 42% for the four-seam and threw just five changeups. If there is a quibble, it might be that. It’s not hard to wonder if his four-seam delivery was bothering him since he’s battled some bumps and bruises lately. Still, if that’s the nitpick….that tells you all you need to know. deGrom is still rocking a K rate around 44% and has a swinging-strike rate over 20%. Facing any team leaves him as one of the best plays on the board, let alone when it’s a K-heavy offense on the other side. I’m not concerned here and would expect that pitch count to continue to rise. 

Corbin Burnes 

We didn’t have any concerns about deGrom and his spin rate but the same cannot be said for Burnes. He was very good in his last start but not at the level we’ve been accustomed to this season. He struck out seven over six innings but he also saw a significant drop in spin rate, cutter included –

Now, that risk has been noted but it’s very difficult to ignore the salary here for Burnes against an offense that is coming out of Coors Field and they scored two runs over three games. Two. Runs. This Bucco offense is not good for the most part and even if Burnes can’t replicate his start to the season, he’s barely $9,000. It might be fair to not expect a 38.9% K rate or a 17% swinging-strike rate but we’re not paying for that tonight. The whiff rate on the cutter did drop to 25% but he still had a 27% CSW overall. I’m taking the discount and running in this spot and it’s not prohibitive to play deGrom and Burnes together. 

Ian Anderson 

For me, I’m not really going to mess around with a lot of pitchers on this slate. We have deGrom, we have a steeply discounted Burnes…that’s plenty for me and what we can play offensively. However, Anderson does check-in as an option because his salary doesn’t make much sense either. Anderson is coming off 21.9 DK and 23.9 DK in his past two starts and yet, his price went down by $400. The Mets are getting healthier offensively but Anderson is a legit big-league talent, regardless of what Brian will tell you. His FIP and xFIP are both 3.21/3.32 and they are slightly lower than the 3.42 ERA. The Mets are fourth in ground ball rate this year and Anderson is over 51% himself, in addition to a strong 26.1% K rate. 

The point about the mechanics is very well said and helps his pitch types immensely. Both sides of the plate are under a .300 wOBA and the K rate and xFIP see no huge split. That’s helpful since the Mets lineup should be balanced between righty and lefty tonight. His changeup is his best weapon with a 36.8% whiff rate and a .219 wOBA. It splits with the four-seam fastball as far as strikeouts with a total of 76 between the two pitches. The salary does not match the upside here. 

Starting Rotation Special 

Whooo boy this one is risky. Let’s get that out of the way right now and this play is not for everyone. This pitcher draws a matchup with an offense that whiffs over 26% of the time this season. That’s a good start since the Special only has a 21.2% K rate himself. He has also faced this offense twice with an 18 DK point score and one under three. I like the fact that the wOBA to lefties is just .292 because he’ll likely face five of them plus the pitcher spot tonight. After a disastrous start to the season, he’s reeled off two straight months with an ERA of 4.10 or under, a 3.76 xFIP, and the wOBA dropped to .288 in June. His four-seam/curve combo is the bread and butter for strikeouts with 47 of the 82 total. The 1.18 HR/9 would be the best mark of his career and there is a pathway for Merrill Kelly to pay off his salary tonight. Just understand that he’s facing the Giants and they are one of the best statistical offenses in baseball. 

Starting Rotation 7.1 Honorable Mention 

Luis Castillo – He’s been on fire and looking like the ace we thought he would be, but the Padres are one of the more difficult matchups in baseball. I will say Burnes only being $200 more in a much better spot will likely leave Castillo at a fraction of the popularity. 

Johnny Cueto – Getting Cueto right is nearly impossible at this point. The profile is fine with a 3.79 FIP, 18.9% K rate, and only a 1.07 HR/9. He has been worse on the road and to lefties though so those are the main reasons I will pass myself. 

Starting Rotation 7.1 Primary Stack 

The first one on my list is the Dodgers, but there is rain projected. If we can’t go LA, I’ll likely look towards the Reds against Ryan Weathers in Cincinnati. Let’s talk about the Dodgers though because Patrick Corbin has been my nemesis all season. Corbin has a 4.65 xFIP and 5.88 FIP against righty hitters to go along with a 2.11 HR/9. Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, and Mookie Betts all have a wOBA over .330 and an ISO over .180, and the first two are far over that. If Albert Pujols makes the lineup, I’d be very interested there as well since he’s smashed lefties with LA, but they are healthier now. We also have some severely underpriced Cardinals in Coors Field as Nolan Arenado is the only hitter over $4,700. Antonio Senzatela is worse against righties with a .360 wOBA, 1.46 HR/9, and a 4.52 xFIP at home. We can fit parts of these offenses with both aces tonight. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 6.30

We have a healthy 10 game slate on tap for tonight and the pitching is fine, if not spectacular. It may be harder to come by cheaper options at the first glance but that does remain to be seen. Let’s get into it tonight and decide who we should be targeting in the Starting Rotation 6.30 to lay our foundation for green! 

Starting Rotation 6.30 – Main Targets 

Aaron Nola 

There is a fairly strong argument that Nola is the lone ace on this slate and I’m inclined to treat him as such. Fresh off striking out 12 Mets hitters, Nola has brought down his FIP/xFIP combo to 3.43 and 3.46. His K rate is down from last season but 28.3% is plenty to like at this salary and the Marlins are seventh in K rate themselves at 25.2%. Nola has seen a reasonably drastic change in his pitch mix, elevating the four-seam to 38% this season compared to 25% last year. 

It’s interesting to note that because it has been the worst pitch of the bunch by results with a .362 wOBA and six of 12 home runs given up. The whiff rate is respectable at 24.5% but his curve carries the strikeout upside with 41 and the changeup is only one strikeout behind the four-seam at 25. I point this out not to say the four-seam should be ditched, but it is a possible reason the K rate has dipped slightly. He’s still got some nasty stuff –

The Marlins projected lineup will be a welcome sight to Nola as well. They should have six righty hitters plus the pitcher spot and Nola has been much better against that side of the plate with a .273 wOBA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 2.72 FIP. His K rate is the exact same against either side, as is the xFIP but one of the differences in the splits is the hard-hit rate. Righties only have a 27.1% rate while lefties sport a 42.7% rate. Perhaps Jazz Chisolm is an interesting GPP one-off, but past that, Nola’s spot on paper looks incredible. 

Shohei Ohtani 

We get a shot at Ohtani pitching in Yankee Stadium which only brings one phrase to mind – 

Ohtani is continuing what could be a historic MVP campaign tonight and I mean….just look at this –

His 11 starts have been excellent for the most part. His K rate is 33.1% and the swinging-strike rate is 14.3%. Those numbers would be seventh and 12th among qualified pitchers and his splitter would rank second in FanGraphs rating behind only Kevin Gausman. It’s hard to put into words just what type of two-way season we’re witnessing but we’re only worried about the pitching tonight. 

It’s not hard to see why the splitter is rated so highly as it has 48 strikeouts, a .119 wOBA, and a 56.7% whiff rate. What’s particularly fascinating is he’s only thrown 53 splitters to righties. You would think that would hurt the K rate and yet, Ohtani has a massive 42.6% K rate to righties. His slider and the four-seam have combined for 31 strikeouts and the Yankees are whiffing over 25% of the time to righties. The WHIP is 0.92, the xFIP is 2.57, and the ground ball rate is 50%. He checks all the boxes we’d want when facing 7-8 righties and we even get a narrative of pitching in New York. 

Chris Bassitt

We have the A’s at home and that definitely helps Bassitt, but the home/road splits aren’t super drastic for him. The left side of the plate is one of the first aspects I look at when a pitcher faces the Rangers and Bassitt has racked up a 26.6% K rate and a 0.91 WHIP. The xFIP is 4.00 but that’s not so high as to make me totally uninterested here. Texas does have a good bit of power on the left side but will likely have more righties in the lineup and Bassitt still has a 23.3% K rate to that side and both sides are under .295 for the wOBA. Texas still whiffs over 25% of the time so far this year so the K upside isn’t hard to find here. 

Bassitt’s pitch mix is interesting. He uses a variation of a fastball for almost 72% of his pitches but his slider and curve play extremely well off those three fastball styles. They both have whiff rates over 40% and the wOBA for both pitches is under .215. The four-seam, slider, and curve are the main strikeout pitches that stand out to me and Bassitt seems like a fantastic option tonight, although being the most expensive option leaves him third behind Nola and Ohtani for me. 

Luis Garcia 

We can’t really let many slates go by without talking righty pitching against the Orioles because that matchup has been mostly money so far this year. The cost is a bit high but the Astros will let Garcia go as long as they can tonight after Jose Urquidy left very early last night. Garcia has been stout in this Houston rotation and has a 27.4% K rate, 12.8% swinging-strike rate, and a CSW of 30.5%. His four-seam and cutter have been doing most of the strikeout work with a combined 54 of 85 thus far.

His four-seam is a bit of a conundrum because it has the most strikeouts but it’s also his worst pitch results-wise with a .385 wOBA and six of nine home runs given up. The slider and the change play well though as they both have a whiff rate over 45% and wOBA’s under .195 so we can live with the four-seam having some issues. The cutter would rank in the top-five in baseball if he qualified.

Baltimore is projected to only have two lefties in the lineup and that is perfect for Garcia. He’s held the right side of the plate down to a .240 wOBA, 0.93 WHIP, and has a 31% K rate. The xFIP is 4.24 which isn’t spectacular, but with the O’s whiffing 24.9% of the time, I’m willing to roll the dice on that. Garcia is also getting hit hard by righty hitters just 29.6% of the time so he’s in the running for one of the pitching slots tonight. 

Starting Rotation 6.30 Honorable Mention 

Joe Musgrove – Anytime a pitcher takes the hill with a 30.8% K rate, we have to take notice. He’s also generated a 13.6% swinging-strike rate and a 32% CSW so he’s been legitimate the entire season. If there’s anything that leaves me leaning away from him it’s the recent form of not scoring more than 20.7 DK in his past seven starts. Add in the fact that this game is in Cincy and the Reds only whiff about 22% of the time to righties and I would rather play Garcia. 

Starting Rotation 6.30 Primary Stack 

It’s Matt Harvey day and that means we have to be looking towards the Houston Astros. Now, you’ll notice there is no Rotation Special on this slate and there’s also no pitcher below Ohtani’s salary. I don’t see the potential for these other starters. I had Steven Matz as a possibility but he’s expensive for a player on a pitch count. So, how are we going to pull of Ohtani plus another pricey pitcher plus Astros? I’m glad you asked. 

Harvey is getting waxed by righty hitters with a .419 wOBA, 2.03 WHIP, and a K rate barely above 18%. He’s using his fastball about 43% of the time to that side of the plate and it gets hit hard 50% of the time, has a .423 wOBA and .281 ISO against it, and he tops it off with a 315-foot average distance. When we look at the righties, the bottom of the lineup is what unlocks everything. 

Abraham Toro and Myles Straw both hit the fastball well and Toro has a .318 ISO and .402 wOBA in his sample size. Straw hits for less power but hits for a higher average and is a threat to steal a base. Using those two hitters can get you to Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve, both of whom have an ISO of at least .260 and a wOBA of at least .356 against that pitch. Correa has typically been hitting fifth, so you can start with 1-5-7-8 and make the stack unique while fitting two expensive pitchers. That still leaves us with about $3,400 for the rest of the lineup and we’re one punt away from making that work. 

Starting Rotation 6.30 Secondary Stacks 

• Blue Jays against Justus Sheffield 
• Braves against David Peterson
• Royals against Martin Perez
• Red Sox against Mike Minor 
• Phillies against Jordan Holloway 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.30 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 6/29

Every team in the majors is in action Tuesday night which means we have 30 pitchers to choose from! There do appear to be options from top to bottom on this slate and we have to deal with Coors Field in some capacity. Let’s not waste a whole lot of time and get directly to work in the Starting Rotation 6/29 and lay our foundation for green! 

Starting Rotation 6/29 – Main Targets 

Note – Both Lucas Giolito and Kenta Maeda pitch tonight and saw their salaries decrease. Both are broken down in Starting Rotation 6/28 and both of these players would get a write-up if this was just a normal slate, so the main targets list will be a touch shorter. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Maeda as the most popular SP2 option on the slate tonight. There’s no need to re-hash what was written in that article. 

Brandon Woodruff

Woodruff is like many pitchers in that his spin rate has decreased a little bit but it had no ill effects in his last start. He struck out nine hitters on his way to 30+ DK points and that same style of upside is present tonight. He doesn’t have the same control issues that can be an issue like Freddy Peralta does and his 31% K rate compared with a 5.9% walk rate is what we love to see. His 0.76 WHIP is second to only Jacob deGrom on the season, making him extra appealing on DK where points are lost for hits and walks. 

In addition to the 27.4% hard-hit rate and the 12.3% swinging-strike rate, Woodruff has at least a 26% whiff rate on all of his pitches except the sinker. Every pitch has a wOBA under .260 (again, except for the sinker) and both sides of the plate are under a .220 wOBA and a 3.05 xFIP. Given the issues Chicago continues to have with the strikeout, I have no issue paying for Woodruff tonight. 

Robbie Ray 

I do like Woodruff but I don’t feel he’s an absolute must-have tonight and Ray is one of the reasons why. This spot sets up incredibly well for him as his four-seam has been the key to his season. It’s given up 11 home runs but at the same time, the whiff rate is 24%, it has 50 of 103 strikeouts, and Seattle is bottom-five against the fastball this season. They do rank 13th in ISO against lefty pitching but they also sit 27th in OPS and wOBA while striking out 27.5% of the time. That’s a top-five rate in baseball against lefties and Ray is rocking a 31% K rate overall with just a 6.3% walk rate, a massive achievement for him. 

The Seattle lineup also projects to set up amazingly for Ray with up to five lefty hitters. Ray has only faced 67 on the season but has owned them with a .252 wOBA, 31.3% K rate, 0.90 WHIP, and a 2.33 xFIP. He also sees a big difference in the ground-ball rate, up to 58.1% to that side compared to just 40.2% to righty hitters. Both he and Woodruff are strong plays and if not using both (it’s likely going to take the perfect offense to make that work), it could come down to who fits. I give a slight edge to Ray. 

J.C. Mejia 

Brian gets half the credit since he made me take a closer look at Mejia before his last start. He totaled 19 DK points and saw the bloated ERA come down closer to the 3.58 xFIP and the 3.27 FIP. When your strand rate is 59.5% and the BABIP is .306, it’s not a huge surprise the ERA looks terrible. The K rate is respectable at 23.7% and the ground ball rate is solid to go with it at 45.3%. He uses the changeup as the secondary pitch to lefties and it’s sporting a 25% whiff rate. The slider is even better at 37.5% and he’s generated 15 of his 22 strikeouts on the sinker and slider so far. The swinging-strike rate is only 9.4% which is a small concern, as is the .375 wOBA to lefties. We have to take into account that the BABIP is .361 to lefties so far and that should normalize at some point. It may not be the same spot as we saw against the Twins but the salary is still very low. 

Starting Rotation Special

The Special is absolutely not cheap tonight but on a very crowded slate, I would be stunned if he gets the attention he likely should get. The matchup is difficult as well, which keeps the field from flocking to him. The opposing offense is first in OBP, eighth in slugging, third in OPS, 10th in ISO, second in wOBA, and first in wRC+. Oh, they also rank second in walk rate and only whiff 22% of the time. They rank inside the top 10 against the two main pitch types for the Special and all of this sounds like a terrible idea to play the pitcher against this offense. 

He has faced them once before and the lineup from that game should look about the same as tonight. When they faced off the first time, the Special went six innings, gave up two hits, and struck out seven. The K rate overall is 30.8% and he boasts a whopping 16.3% and 33.4% swinging-strike rate and CSW combo. Both of those numbers are in the top-six in baseball among qualified pitchers. Our mystery man is slightly “worse” to lefties but both sides of the plate are under a .225 wOBA and the left side whiffs at a slightly higher 31.4%. I think there’s a good chance we get a sub-5% Kevin Gausman and he has pitched at an ace level all season long. 

Starting Rotation 6/29 Honorable Mention 

Trevor Rogers – The salary is just a hair higher than I’d like and we have to point out that his K rate has gone down every month so far. 

That’s not to say he’s a bad pitcher by any stretch, but we wouldn’t be in love with paying nearly $10,000 for a pitcher with a 26.6% K rate. Philly is whiffing over 26.5% themselves as a team against lefty pitching and they are also 26th against the fastball. That’s the bread and butter for Rogers with a 29.5% whiff rate, .299 wOBA, and 65 of 101 strikeouts. 

Nick Pivetta – The Royals aren’t facing Garrett Richards tonight and Pivetta has been a lot better on the mound and he has a .305 wOBA to righty hitters. Kansas City had been ice cold rolling into last night and after Richards departed, they produced virtually nothing. His K rate to righty hitters is 27% and he’s on the radar, although the price is a bit dicey for me. 

Charlie Morton – I suppose he should be given a main writeup, but I’m not convinced I want to chase Morton coming off consecutive 30+ DK point games at nearly $9,000. The Mets are getting a little healthier with Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil back in the lineup as well. Morton has a 27.4% K rate and has both sides of the plate under a .300 wOBA. I’m interested in how popular he is. If he winds up being chalk, I’m going to pass. If he’s under 10% or so, it could be a different story. 

Zach Davies – I toyed with a full writeup but there are still some concerning signs. Davis has also gotten better as the season has worn on and through 29 IP in June, the ERA is down at 3.72 and the wOBA is .262. The K rate has come up to 17.5% and Davies has been better to lefties all year with a .305 seasonal wOBA. The xFIP is still scary all the way across the board which keeps him out of my main targets but he could be an interesting MME play. 

Starting Rotation 6.28 Primary Stack 

Note – Shohei Ohtani is under $5,000 and Jameson Taillon is giving up a .375 wOBA, 2.22 HR/9, and a 5.23 xFIP against lefties. I will have heavy exposure to him regardless of who else I’m playing offensively. 

We all know that the Rockies and Astros will likely be popular but let’s talk about another high-powered offense. We’re heading to Fenway Park and the Red Sox draw an excellent spot against Brad Keller. The quartet of Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Alex Verdugo are all above a .385 wOBA and .210 ISO on the season. Keller has used the sinker and slider roughly 70% of the time and allows a hard-contact rate of at least 42% and those four are all very good against those two pitchers, Devers especially. 

Hitters like Hunter Renfroe and Bobby Dalbec are on the radar as well. Renfroe has a .254 Iso against the slider and Dalbec is less of a strikeout concern with Keller on the mound. I would plan to plug in Verdugo, pick two of Devers, Bogaerts, and Martinez, and then pair them with Ohtani. We just need a cheap hitter or two to round everything out. 

Secondary Stacks 

• Rockies against Chase de Jong 
• Astros against Alexander Wells
• Blue Jays against Chris Flexen 
• Cleveland against Jose Urena
• Reds against Blake Snell (Castellanos especially at $4,000)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.29 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 6.28

We’re back to our regularly scheduled programming tonight with a healthy nine games on the MLB slate! We have two of the bigger names on the mound this evening and then the quality drops off for the most part. At the first look, we may be picking one of the top two pitchers and then trying to gauge what to do after that so let’s go to work in the Starting Rotation 6.28! 

Starting Rotation 6.28 – Main Targets

Freddy Peralta 

Until the Cubs force us to stop, we have to consider any pitcher against them with even a moderate strikeout pedigree. Peralta is far above moderate and sits second among qualified pitchers with a 36.4% K rate. His 14.4% swinging-strike rate is 12th in the league and he just went six innings while whiffing 10 Arizona hitters. Any start like that is encouraging since we can put fears of substance usage to bed. His spin rate was down a hair but it wasn’t alarming and he’s been outspoken on the subject. Chicago will not stop striking out and now lead baseball in K rate to righty pitching at 26.5%. Just look at these past 10-12 games for the Cubs and how many times they’re whiffing (this doesn’t count the game last night as Clayton Kershaw whiffed 10+ by himself) – 

Now, I wouldn’t say that Peralta is going to get 16 hitters to strike out but the upside is palpable. He’s pitched three times against Chicago this year, totaling 15 IP, three ER, 15 K’s, and only eight total hits allowed. His walks were a hair high but the control has gotten better as the year has gone and he’s at 10.5% for the walk rate. It’s not ideal but Chicago is only 18th in walk rate themselves. Both his fastball and slider are top 12 in FanGraphs rating and they have 105 of 114 strikeouts with a 30.5% whiff rate or higher. To me, he is the top arm on the slate and will be an anchor for the majority of my lineups. 

Trevor Bauer 

I’m always transparent with you guys and I’ll be perfectly honest – I have no idea what to do with Bauer tonight. His spin rates continue to be on the downward trend and I think there’s little reason to not believe he was using some sort of substance (as were a lot of pitchers, I’m not really singling Bauer out). We’ve seen good and bad from him lately and the last start was very good even with the spin rate drop as he whiffed 10 Padres. Even giving up three earned runs isn’t that bad when you strike out 10. This spot stands out as a high strikeout potential game for Bauer as the Giants whiff 25.8% of the time but man could this one go wrong. 

To his full credit, Bauer has faced the Giants once and whiffed 11 hitters over 6.1 IP so he’s had success against this team. Bauer is also going to draw a lineup that is first in ISO, fifth in OPS, fifth in wOBA, fourth in wRC+, and ninth in OBP. On top of that, the Giants can throw out five lefties and that’s the weaker part of the splits for Bauer with a 1.88 HR/9 and a 4.44 xFIP. The pitch data would suggest that the cutter and curve play a major role in the issues with lefties. Those are two of the main three pitches Bauer uses against lefties and they both have a wOBA over .310 (and a whiff rate of 32.5%) and have combined for nine of 17 home runs allowed. Bauer has the same exact ceiling that Peralta has but I believe the floor is significantly lower tonight. 

Kenta Maeda 

Note – A large chunk of this analysis is from the 6.26 Rotation article. Since the Twins were rained out, Maeda is starting tonight but the metrics remain the same for Maeda. Only the matchup has changed. 

I still think Maeda could be chalk again and his game log looks sort of worse than it should. He was very good through five innings before slipping in the sixth. That’s not a big surprise since he only threw 76 pitches in the first game back. He’ll need to continue to build up but the last time on the mound, he still generated a 39% whiff rate on the slider and 30% on the splitter. The slider was up from the seasonal number of 28.7% and that’s what we want to see from a primary pitch. 

There are still some issues in Maeda’s profile since returning and in his 9.1 IP he has a 4.35 xFIP. The K rate is 27.5% but righties have been tough on him with a .371 wOBA. The K rate overall is only 20.9% on the season so we have to hope that comes up. One aspect that has to be pointed out is the BABIP to both sides is over .310 and in June, it’s come down to .261. I’m not head over heels for Maeda but he is still too cheap. We’ve talked lately about the White Sox as an offense we don’t have to be as scared of as the perception still is. The good news is the ground ball rate is over 40% to each side, the White Sox still lead the league in ground ball rate, and they whiff 24% of the time. 

Starting Rotation Special 

This pitcher looks terrible on the surface but let’s take a bit of a deeper dive. We have to understand the sample size here is very small (hint right there) so everything about him is with a grain of salt. The K rate is 27.8% and the swinging-strike rate is 12.8%. That speaks to some upside worth chasing through the risk. The xFIP is also 3.94 and the SIERA is 3.59, both of which are quite solid and he can’t continue to suffer through a .406 BABIP. The Rotation Special is mostly a three-pitch pitcher and in his last start, he generated a 36% whiff rate across 71 total pitches. 

Each of his primary pitches has produced a whiff rate of at least 25% so far and really my largest fear is he’s been a fly-ball pitcher through the minors. That’s an easy way to get bitten by the home run ball in the majors. We’re not expecting him to give up zero runs, but Eli Morgan was able to score 18.9 DK last time out with four runs given up due to nine strikeouts. The Tigers have the same seasonal K rate as the Cubs at 26.5% and he should be good for around 80 pitches tonight, perhaps a bit more if things go well. He actually held the Cubs to one run through five innings before things went sideways a bit in the last start.

Starting Rotation 6.28 Honorable Mention 

Lucas Giolito – He hasn’t been quite the same pitcher this season overall with his K rate falling by about 3% and the xFIP climbing just a tad to 3.56. That’s not poor by any stretch and we have to point out the Twins lineup could actually work to the favor of Giolito. Minnesota only whiffs 22.9% of the time to righties but they are projected to have five lefties in the lineup. Giolito has a .249 wOBA to lefties compared to a .349 mark to righties. The K rate is also higher for lefties at 32.8%. Minnesota has fallen to 18th against the fastball so I want to see two things here. The first is the Twins lineup and the second is projected ownership. If he’s 20% or higher, I’d rather just go Peralta. If he’s under 10%, we can talk seriously about using him in a double-ace build. 

Zack Greinke – He feels awfully pricey to me and even though he scored 22.9 DK points in his last start against this Baltimore offense, can he score higher? He’s wildly unpredictable as four of his last 10 starts have been under 12 DK and four have been above 23 DK. Baltimore is over 25% for their K rate to righty pitching but Greinke has fallen below 18% for his mark. I’m not sure I can justify paying that salary when Bauer, Giolito, and Peralta are all above 30%. 

Matt Manning – I suppose you could take a run at Manning but the early returns on the young righty haven’t been too spectacular. The K rate is only 8.9% and the xFIP is 5.51, both of which are problematic. We’re only talking a sample size of 19 hitters but the .352 wOBA and 6.22 xFIP against lefty hitters is a primary concern here as well. You’d be playing him for the hope that things click and with his pedigree, that is within the realm of possibility. 

Starting Rotation 6.28 Primary Stack 

We’re continuing to evolve the Starting Rotation and I’m going to start laying out my case for a primary stack on each slate. Tonight, it’s pretty easy since the Houston Astros face off against Thomas Eshelman and the Orioles bullpen. Baltimore’s pen is not that terrible as they rank about average in SIERA and xFIP, but they do rank 24th in HR/9. Regardless, they pitch too many innings because the starters are not good and Houston should have their way tonight. 

Eshelman has only started two games but has thrown a sinker as his primary pitch. It has yet to record a single swing and miss and carries a .560 wOBA. Throughout his career, the splits are about dead even for the wOBA around .360 and the HR/9 is over 2.00 to each side as well. Jose Altuve, Myles Straw, Yuli Gurriel, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, and Abraham Toro all have wOBA’s over .305 against righty sinkers and this entire lineup is well in play. Toro is the only hitter in the lineup that does not have a wOBA over .320 this season and even then, I’d be happy to play him to save some salary. The lineup is almost certainly chalk so don’t be afraid to get a little different with a wraparound stack. 

Secondary Stacks 

• D-Backs against Wade LeBlanc 
• Mets against Paolo Espino 
• Angels against Michael King 
• Yankees against Dylan Bundy 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.28 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 6.26

We have two slates of MLB action today, one 10 game and one four-game. This is going to be a Super Size Starting Rotation because I’m going to be covering Brian for Picks and Pivots as well! The 10 game slate will have the full breakdown with offenses and the four-game slate will be a bit more condensed but cover all the bases. Brian will be doing the same for Sunday, but let’s get right to work today since we have quite a bit to get to in the Starting Rotation 6.26! 

Starting Rotation 6.26 – Main Slate Targets 

Jacob deGrom 

Play him. Move on. 

Alright, I’m going to go slightly more in-depth since there have been some injury concerns the past couple of starts. I would be lying if I said I didn’t have some small worries because the Mets are going to baby deGrom without question. The flip side is there are no adjectives left to describe how he’s pitching this season. The K rate is over 46%, the xFIP is 1.59 along with a 0.86 FIP, and righty hitters have a .149 wOBA against him. By the way, the K rate for righties is over 50% and Philly likely has five plus the pitcher spot. In his past two starts, deGrom has scored 22.8 and 25.5 DK points on 51 and 70 pitches. If he throws 90 pitches, there’s every chance he puts up over 30 DK points and I’m going to be on the right side of that. 

Lance Lynn

Lynn struggled a good deal last start but the Astros offense and the Mariners offense are at very opposite ends of the spectrum. It’s worth noting that his spin rates were down as well. Houston is dead last in K rate under 20% to righties while Seattle is sitting third at 26.2% at the start of Friday night. The Mariners do have some pop at 16th in ISO but are 23rd or lower in OPS, slugging, wOBA, and wRC+. If there’s one reason why I wouldn’t try to force Lynn next to deGrom, the splits would suggest that it won’t be a ceiling game for Lynn. Seattle has five lefties in the normal lineup and Lynn drops to 22.2% for the K rate to that side of the plate. The xFIP is also a scary 4.80 and we mentioned that Seattle is quietly average in one power metric. 

The question is which you’re going to put more weight on. It’s not like these are elite lefty hitters he’s going against and he still has a 26% hard-hit rate and a 12.6% swinging-strike rate on the year. I do have some concerns here and I’m not sure we need to go here, but it’s always hard to not at least consider a pitcher with the talent level of Lynn against an offense like the Mariners. 

Adrian Houser 

We can keep this one relatively short because there’s one major reason Houser makes it today and it’s the Rockies Road matchup. Houser only has an 18.7% K rate but he also boasts a 60% ground ball rate. That’s going to come into play in a big way since the Rockies now lead the league in ground ball rate to righties outside of Coors. They are also fourth in K rate at 27.3% so that’s going to bump up the K rate potential for Houser in theory anyway. It also should help Hosmer that the Rockies will normally have only three lefties in their lineup. The .308 wOBA against righties isn’t anything special but the 3.74 xFIP and 21.7% K rate helps a whole lot. I’m curious to see what the field does with him on this slate especially since the next pitcher is likely heavy chalk. 

Kenta Maeda 

I would think Maeda will be chalk again and his game log looks sort of worse than it should. He was very good through five innings before slipping in the sixth. That’s not a big surprise since he only threw 76 pitches in the first game back. He’ll need to continue to build up but inches time on the mound, he still generated a 39% whiff rate on the slider and 30% on the splitter. The slider was up from the seasonal number of 28.7% and that’s what we want to see from a primary pitch.

There are still some issues in Maeda’s profile since returning and in his 9.1 IP he has a 4.35 xFIP. The K rate is 27.5% and he’s been better to lefties throughout the season. The xFIP overall is 3.89 and the K rate is 22.5%. One aspect that has to be pointed out is the BABIP to both sides is over .310 and in June, it’s come down to .261. I’m not head over heels for Maeda but he makes far too much sense to pair with deGrom and even 15 DK makes you happy at $6,800. 

Starting Rotation Special 

This section has been pretty successful so far, hitting three out of four players. Let’s try and make it four out of five today with a mystery pitcher who looks like a different player in June. Through those 17.1 IP, he has a 3.12 ERA, .269 wOBA, 3.92 xFIP, and the K rate has jumped from 21.9% to 28.6%. His swinging-strike rate in the three June starts has been 17.1%, 17.4%, and 13%. Now, the last start came against a lefty-heavy lineup and that’s not the best for his strikeout upside. The wOBA is .294 but the K rate is just 19.7%. Flip it over to the right side and the K rate jumps to 31.3%, a massive swing. There should be at least five righties in the lineup but this is where things get fun. 

Since the start of May, this offense ranks 16th in wRC+, 15th in wOBA, 26th in ISO, 19th in ISO, 25th in slugging, and they have a K rate of 24.7%. On top of all of that, the ground ball rate is still over 47% and that is the third-most. The mystery pitcher has jumped from a 23.1% ground ball rate to 41.5% this month and the hard-hit rate is 31.8%. Adding all of these factors up and knowing that Logan Gilbert has a fantastic prospect pedigree makes him a sneaky good play today. The fact Maeda is $400 cheaper makes this pick quite fun. With the injuries to the White Sox lineup, they can be a target to use pitchers against for now. 

Starting Rotation 6.26 Honorable Mention Main Slate 

Luis Castillo – The 24.2 IP in June suggests Castillo has turned a corner. He’s rocking a 2.19 ERA, .221 wOBA, 26.8% K rate, and a 3.31 xFIP. The swinging-strike rate in those four starts has been at least 11.5% and three have been above 13.5%. That’s all A. a big improvement over what he’s put forth this season and B. more in line with expectations at the start of the season. Having said that, I don’t have the trust factor to drop $10,500 on him today and will play deGrom 100 times out of 100. 

Shane McClanahan – I’m a little worried about the price jump coming off the best start in his young career and the Angels don’t whiff a lot against lefties at 21.4%. We do have to note the 29% K rate and just a 7.5% walk rate, both impressive for a 24-year old in his first real major league action. He’s also generating a 49.1% ground ball rate but you really want some strikeouts at this salary. His slider has been his best pitch and he uses it as a primary. It has a .236 wOBA, 48.4% whiff rate, and 36 of 54 strikeouts. The bad news is the Angels are third against that pitch so this doesn’t strike me as the place where we pay up for him. 

Hyun Jin Ryu – He’s an odd case because he only has a K rate of 20.8% while his CSW of 28.3% is the best since 2018. The swinging-strike rate of 10% does support the dip in K rate and it keeps me off him as a main target. However, the Orioles offense has been getting smacked lately. I mean, Anthony Kay posted 20+ DK points. Anthony. Kay. Despite Ryu not being exactly as good as he has been in the past, he’s far more talented than Kay. 

Starting Rotation 6.26 Hitter Targets 

Well, this isn’t going to be reinventing the wheel or anything but we have got to figure out a way to get some Blue Jays exposure once again. The Orioles are rolling out lefty Keegan Akin who has a 5.03 xFIP to righty hitters. The fly-ball rate is right about 40% but he really only throws a fastball and changeup to that side. The fastball is giving up a 48.7% hard contact rate and the Jays lineup destroys lefty fastballs. The righties in the offense feature at least a .327 wOBA and a .202 ISO. The lone exception is Bo Bichette who only has a .065 ISO but everyone else just crushes this pitch. 

Looking at the changeup (and these two pitches make up 82% of Akin’s arsenal) and it doesn’t get better. Marcus Semien, Vlad Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, George Springer, and Lourdes Gurriel are all above a .200 ISO against that change. Randal Grichuk is at a .169 mark but has a .351 mark against the fastball. Now, fitting in both Vlad and Semien could be a challenge with deGrom but Springer, Gurriel, and Grichuk are all easy to play. Springer to me is one of the premier plays on the slate given his price tag and his power potential. I believe a four-man Jays stack with deGrom and one of our cheaper pitchers is very attainable. 

If we’re rolling with some of the cheaper Toronto outfielders and picking Vlad or Semien, that means we need some infielders and we have an offense that fits perfectly with the Jays in a great spot of their own. The Twins draw lefty Sam Hentges who has gotten beat up for a .407 wOBA to righty hitters. I will grant you that the BABIP is .444 and the xFIP is 3.92 but the Minnesota offense has some good righties to counter that. Ryan Jeffers, Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco, and even Andrelton Simmons all make the cut for me. Hentges uses the fastball and curve 78% of the time and the fastball is 47%. It also has a .281 ISO and .538 wOBA given up with only a 7.3% whiff rate. He cannot generate swings and misses with a pitch he throws 47% of the time! 

Donaldson, Cruz, Jeffers, and even Miguel Sano and Alex Kirilloff have an ISO over .345 against that pitch. The whiff rates are high for them but that doesn’t even worry me against Hentges. Jeffers especially stands out as he’s projected to hit cleanup for just $3,000. Using hitters like him, Springer, and even a wraparound option like Simmons really affords the big names you want in the lineup. 

Starting Rotation 6.26 Stacking Options Main Slate 

• Marlins against Patrick Corbin
• Brewers against Antonio Senzatela 
• Rangers against Kris Bubic 

Starting Rotation 6.26 – Evening Slate

Nathan Eovaldi – I really don’t have the stomach to spend up on this small slate. Julio Urias generated just four whiffs on his curveball the last start and the timing is suspect since that’s when MLB started checking for foreign substances. Urias, Trevor Bauer, Clayton Kershaw, and Walker Buehler all saw a sip in spin rate this week. That’s not a coincidence and while some were less drastic than others, I can’t find a reason to spend on Urias against a righty-heavy lineup with other potential issues. 

Back to Eovaldi, the .343 wOBA to righties doesn’t look like what we want against the Yankees but that pesky .378 BABIP is silly high. His K rate is at 23% to that side of the plate and the xFIP is 3.11. The quibble is his slider is the second pitch to righties and it hasn’t been great with a .394 wOBA but it also has a 36.5% whiff rate. It also generates a 55% ground ball rate and New York is whiffing 25% to righty pitching and sit no higher than 12th in any offensive category. 

Dinelson Lamet – It might be the first time he’s made it as a main target all season and while he’s still only throwing about 80-ish pitches, there is upside at this price. There are also only seven other options so let’s remember that. This spot should steer into Lamet’s strengths as he whiffs lefty hitters at 30.8% and the .299 wOBA is being somewhat fueled by the .400 BABIP. The xFIP to that side is only 3.25 and Arizona is 22nd against the slider this year. Lamet uses the slider about 51% of the time and has a 39.7% whiff rate with just a .204 wOBA. 

Jordan Montgomery – The ultimate roller coaster and not a player that I’d likely utilize, but Boston sits outside the top 10 in wOBA, wRC+, OBP, and are down at 19th in Iso to lefty pitching. The K rate isn’t high at 22.1% but Montgomery is at 24%. Only two projected Boston hitters are over a .350 wOBA against lefties this year and only three are above a .200 ISO. Montgomery uses the curve and the change as his primary two pitches and both are below a .260 wOBA and above a 39% whiff rate. The scary part is Boston is top-five against both pitches but on this small of a slate, it may be worth it to take a chance with a pitcher that has shown 30 DK point upside. 

Starting Rotation 6.26 Stacking Options Main Slate 

• Giants against Frankie Montas – he struggles outside of Oakland and the Giants lefties smack the sinker around, which Montas uses 50% of the time to that side of the plate. 
• Padres against Merrill Kelly – Righties have a .350 wOBA and a 1.93 HR/9 against Kelly this season. 
• Cubs against Julio Urias – Urias struggled in that last start and if his curve isn’t working, it’s going to be an issue. Perhaps just a small stack like Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and maybe Javier Baez would make some sense here. 
• Dodgers against Alec Mills – The wOBA to lefties is .415 with an xFIP over 5.00 and a K rate under 13%. That’s not what you want against a powerful offense like LA and the fact we don’t have a strong need to spend on pitching makes them more affordable. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.26 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 6.25

We are back for a busy Friday night on the diamond and I thought we might have some fantastic options when I looked at the probable pitchers. The bad news is we got robbed of Corbin Burnes and Aaron Nola because those games start at 4:00 today. Things should get a bit more condensed with those options unavailable to us. Let’s talk about the upper tier and a bunch more in the Starting Rotation 6.25 to lay the foundation for our green screens! 

Starting Rotation 6.25 – Main Targets 

Carlos Rodon 

Rodon is going to be heavy chalk I would suspect and he’s just been outstanding this season. His four-seam and slider have been borderline untouchable with a total of 103 strikeouts out of 105 he’s recorded. Both pitches have a wOBA of .230 or worse and both are over a 30% whiff rate. If he qualified, the slider would rank sixth among the league in FanGraphs rating. His swinging-strike rate is 15.7% and would rank seventh and the CSW of 30.8% is excellent as well. If the Mariners go with their normal lineup against lefties, it could go heavily in Rodon’s favor. On the season, Rodon has faced 49 lefties and they have a .165 wOBA, .071 WHIP, 2% walk rate, and a 2.11 xFIP. They also only have a 23.3% hard-hit rate and Seattle typically has five lefties in their lineup. Rodon checks every possible box for us as a play tonight and he’s easy to anchor to when Burnes and Nola are out of the running. 

Framber Valdez 

I’m not sure if I’d say Valdez is a pivot away from Rodon because I don’t particularly want to fade him. However, Valdez could be argued for a double-ace approach and that could get interesting. Valdez is not typically the player we target at this price point with just a 22.1% K rate but the Tigers should help that as they whiff the most against lefty pitchers at 29.6%. The sinker/curve combo has been the bread and butter for Valdez and while his sinker is just average with a 16.1% whiff rate and a .255 wOBA, the curve has been fantastic. 

It boasts 24 strikeouts already across 126 pitches and on 20 BBE, it has given up four total hits. Valdez also has a 71.1% ground ball rate and I grant you we don’t want ground balls at this salary, but it’s a nice weapon to have to eat innings. It’s part of the reason he’s pitched at least seven innings in all four of his starts he wasn’t on a pitch count and he has 25+ DK point upside tonight. 

Pablo Lopez 

The game logs for Lopez certainly look odd in the past three starts as two of them have been over 30 DK and one has been in the negatives. That’s not exactly what you want but he’s in a solid spot again. Washington does only strike out 22.7% to righty pitching but the offense is right in the middle of the pack in our offensive categories. Frankly, if Kyle Schwarber would stop hitting home runs this offense would look even worse. Lopez has a 25% K rate, 48.2% ground ball rate, and a 3.50 xFIP. He loves home cooking and he’s one of the few that I weigh that home/road split. He has a 1.89 ERA and the wOBA to both sides of the plate under .250. The Washington lineup is righty-heavy and Lopez features a 30.6% K rate to that side of the plate with just a 3.01 xFIP. Those numbers get better at home to the shock of nobody and even with the changeup being the lead pitch, it has a .288 wOBA and 44 strikeouts. The price is slightly high but coming off a 30 DK point game, it’s hard to complain too much. 

Chris Paddack 

It has been a hot minute since Paddack has been featured but we have to talk about consecutive games over 25 DK points. One facet that stands out is he generated at least a 44% whiff rate on his changeup compared to a 33.7% rate on the season. That is a fairly large jump, so I’m not sure if he’ll replicate the DK scores but that doesn’t mean we can’t look at him here. I’d be lying if I said I have total confidence in Paddack because I haven’t touched him as a play in a very long time. Looking at his metrics this season, that may have been a mistake. His K rate has climbed to almost 26% with a walk rate of just 5.3%. The 4.10 ERA looks very average but his FIP is 3.52 and the xFIP is 3.43 so there has been some tough luck, including a .301 BABIP. 

Paddack also has a 44.9% ground ball rate to go along with a 13.2% swinging-strike rate which is the best of his career. What also helps him along is the splits as the left side of the plate sits at a .260 wOBA, 23.1% K rate, and a 3.60 xFIP. After a tough start, Paddack has righted the ship from May on with an ERA under 3.75 and his K rate at home is 28.2%. Paddack always has had better success in San Diego so he’s in the running tonight. 

Starting Rotation Special 

The Special doesn’t always have to be a punt and there’s a pitcher that has my eyes right now that I think the field will not turn to at all. We rarely target this lineup with a lefty pitcher but since the start of June, the offense has slipped to around the middle of the road against a certain handedness. They also have whiffed 24.6% of the time since the month started and no fewer than six hitters are on the IL. Only three current hitters have a wOBA over .370 and two of them whiff over 20% of the time. The offense also is seventh in ground ball rate at 47.2%. 

As far as the pitcher goes, he counters with a 52.1% ground ball rate and a 25.3% K rate. If he can get by the top of the lineup, the bottom of it does not look that strong. This pitcher only allows a 26.9% hard-hit rate and a 13.5% swinging-strike rate, a career-best. His 31.5% CSW is 10th in baseball on top of all that so there is some serious talent here. The Special will face 7-8 righties but that’s not an issue as the wOBA is .295, the K rate is 25.1%, and the xFIP is just 3.66. Both of his secondary pitches have at least a 32.9% whiff rate and Yusei Kikuchi is an option that I very much doubt gets much traction tonight. 

Starting Rotation 6.25 Honorable Mention 

Alek Manoah – The Orioles have gotten smashed by any pitcher lately and even though Manoah couldn’t take advantage of the matchup last time, it’s still there. He whiffs both sides of the plate at 25.6% or higher and he only walks righties 5.4% of the time. The home run ball has bitten him hard so far but it’s not been a big issue through the minors, so we can consider him again tonight. 

Griffin Jax – I’m not sure how smart this would be, but Jax is only $4,000. He’s had a ground ball rate of at least 41% through the minors so the 18.5% rate through 8.1 IP in the majors seems sort of out of place. He should only face three righty hitters and the lefties are only at a .310 wOBA so far (16 hitters so let’s not pretend this is a sample size) with a 3.72 xFIP. The K rate is also 25% with a .364 BABIP. If he grinds out 12-15 DK, it absolutely opens things up but this could go horrendously wrong. 

Starting Rotation 6.25 Stacking Options 

• Blue Jays against Matt Harvey 
• Astros against Wily Peralta 
• Padres against Corbin Martin 
• Dodgers against Jake Arrieta 
• Rays against Griffin Canning 
• Reds against Drew Smyly 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.25 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 6.24

We’re back for an eight-game slate tonight and looking to replicate the success we saw yesterday! It’s not going to be easy because the options tonight are not all that great on the surface. One duo stands out and I already can see them becoming the chalk pair. Let’s talk about those two and some other options in the Starting Rotation 6.24 to lay our foundation for green screens! 

Starting Rotation 6.24 – Main Targets 

Walker Buehler 

I did my once-over of this slate and let out an exasperated sigh because A. the options are sketchy and B. Buehler is the clear top option on paper. I already dislike paying the high salary for him and if you’ve read through this season, you know we rarely get along. Every time I play Buehler he pitches poorly and if I fade him as chalk, he goes seven innings and smashes. This spot stands out for a couple of reasons and one of them is just how much Chicago’s offense can struggle against righty pitching. They have power potential as they rank seventh in ISO and 12th in slugging. However, the flip side is ranking 22nd in OBP and sporting a ghastly K rate of 26.1%. Just look at how pitchers have fared against them in the past few games – 

The typical Chicago lineup has five lefties in it and Buehler is slightly worse to lefties with a .278 wOBA and just a 22.5% K rate. Still, the Cubs can very clearly elevate the strikeout potential for any pitcher that toes the rubber. The four-seam is the key to this start with 47 strikeouts out of the 88 he has on the season. Perhaps the reason Buehler is a bit worse to lefties is that he uses the cutter and curve more to lefties. The cutter is the main issue with a .311 wOBA but that simply isn’t enough to sway me away from him at home on an overall poor pitching slate. 

Luis Garcia 

It says a good deal about this slate that Garcia is the second man in for me, despite having some struggles to the left side of the plate. Through 125 batters faced this year, Garcia has given up a .331 wOBA with a 1.53 HR/9. However, the xFIP of 3.67 and the BABIP of .321 tells us there’s been some poor luck involved. He still has a 24.8% K rate to that side of the plate and it jumps to 30.6% against righties. The main issue by the metrics in front of us is the four-seam fastball. 

Garcia has thrown a four-seam on 52% of his total pitches to lefties and it’s given up a .375 wOBA with just an 18.3% whiff rate. The good news is the change and the curve are second and third, and both of those pitches feature a whiff rate of at least 32.8%. Overall, Garcia is allowing just a 31.7% hard-contact rate and generating a 12.9% swinging-strike rate along with a 31% CSW. Detroit has certainly improved but they also still lead the league in K rate to righties at 26.5% on the season. 

Starting Rotation Special 

So for full transparency, I don’t see myself straying from Buehler and Garcia tonight. There are so many pitchers like J.C. Mejia, Jose Urena, Josh Tomlin, and Michael Wacha who can be dismissed out of hand. Joe Ross has some potential but not at an absurd ask of $9,600. We’re not going to use Zach Davies against the Dodgers and Dean Kremer against Toronto…well, I’ll take my loss if he goes out and shoves against the Jays. All that brings us to the Rotation Special tonight and like all of them, he’s risky. DON’T get too crazy with him. 

The mystery man has been slightly better to righty hitters and I do emphasize slightly. The .312 wOBA isn’t anything to write home about, the K rate is only 16.7%, and the hard-hit rate is down at 21.2%. He also generates a strong 49% ground ball rate so we have to hope that the 5.40 xFIP doesn’t bite us against the righty-heavy lineup. The opposing offense only whiffs 23.1% of the time but also only walks 7.5%. This offense also ranks in the bottom 10 this year in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+.

What I’m hoping for is the continued ditching of the sinker. On the season, this pitcher has thrown the sinker 22.3% for a pathetic 5.9% whiff rate and a .411 wOBA. However, he only threw it 9% of the time in his last start and had what was easily his best DK score of the year at 19.9. His slider is not that bad and is the primary pitch to either side but especially righty hitters. It has a 32.4% whiff rate and 18 of 27 strikeouts. It may not be a perfect match, but there is a path to a 12-15 DK point start and Chad Kuhl against the Cardinals is about the only other pitcher I have a small interest in tonight. 

Starting Rotation 6.24 Stacking Options 

• Rays against Nick Pivetta – Lefties especially as Pivetta has a 4.94 xFIP and a .343 wOBA given up
• Cleveland against Jose Berrios – This one is not for the faint of heart because Cleveland is not a great offense but they do normally have six lefties in the lineup. Berrios has a 4.17 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, and a .391 wOBA. The BABIP is sky-high at .358 but there is a good reason for that. He uses the four-seam as the primary pitch to lefties and it’s getting tagged for a .384 wOBA and only generating a 17.9% whiff rate. 
• Braves against Tony Santillan – Of course, it is very early in his career but righties have destroyed him with a .573 wOBA so far. 
• Astros against Jose Urena – Lefties especially 
• Orioles against Anthony Kay – Hitters like Austin Hays, Pedro Severino, Anthony Santander, and Freddy Galvis could be the key to unlocking the high-salaried pitching I feel we need. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.24 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!