MLB DFS Top Plays

Starting Rotation 7.21

The good news for today is we get two slates of MLB action and that’s always a fun time. Unfortunately, out of the 28 total pitchers today, I’m not sure if we have 8-10 great options combined, let alone on one slate. Even some of the “good” options are significantly overpriced and that lowers the appeal in Starting Rotation 7.21 but let’s get to work! 

Starting Rotation 7.21 – Early Slate 

Eric Lauer – Did I think in a million years that I’d be writing up Lauer at $8,700 in July in the year 2021? Absolutely not but this is the state of the early slate. The top three pitchers in salary are Marcus Stroman in Cincinnati, Madison Bumgarner against the Pirates, and Kyle Muller against the Padres. They are all at least $9,500 and in my eyes are virtually unplayable at those salaries. I mean, I’m not sure I’d play Stroman or Muller if they were $2,000 cheaper. Even Lauer against the Royals isn’t super ideal since they strike out just 21.5% of the time but we have to play someone. 

What’s tough about the early slate is you’re going to have to take some risks. I can’t say that Lauer has been all that great in his 56.1 IP since he has a 4.84 FIP and 4.40 xFIP. The WHIP is 1.33 but he is generating a 10.0% swinging-strike rate at least. KC does lose the DH spot since this game is in Milwaukee and Lauer does have a wOBA under .220 on his slider and changeup. The only issue there is he uses them a combined 23.7% of the time. His fastball does have 31 of his 54 strikeouts and KC is 27th against the pitch. They also rank in the bottom 10 in every offensive category we value, so you kind of just pinch your nose and hope he gets through six innings. 

Austin Gomber – He’s the one pitcher that might be qualified as too cheap today. He threw 62 pitches in his last rehab start so we should expect at least 80 if things are going well. Much like German Marquez last night, Gomber has conquered Coors Field in his limited opportunity this year. Through 30.1 IP, he has a .225 wOBA, 1.48 ERA, 21.7% K rate, 3.04 FIP, and a 4.02 xFIP. It’s also encouraging he’s managed a 48.1% ground ball rate at home while Seattle is at 45% against lefty pitching. They also strike out the fourth-most at 26.9% and Gomber has a whiff rate of at least 32% on every pitch but his four-seam fastball. Unless we get hit with a strict pitch count, I’m ready to roll out Gomber today. 

Keegan Akin – Let’s get WAY nuts. We talk about it almost every time the Rays face a lefty that it’s a significant weakness for them. They are over a 27% K rate, 29th in OPS, 26th in ISO, 28th in wRC+, and 24th in wRC+. Akin has had some poor luck so far with a BABIP of at least .360 against each side of the plate. He’s also stuck out lefties at a 30.3% rate so he might be helped if the Rays roll out a couple of lefties. The 8.19 ERA is not at all in line with a 4.83 xFIP and 4.93 FIP. Sure, those numbers aren’t terrific but we’re paying a very cheap price on a terrible pitching slate. If Akin can get five innings, one or two runs, and four strikeouts or more, he can pay off. 

Starting Rotation 7.21 Early Honorable Mention 

Max Kranick – We only have eight innings at the major league level so it’s hard to take much from those numbers. Kranick has a K rate of almost 26% and teams haven’t figured out the four-seam yet. Despite just an 11.1% whiff rate, it’s only given up a .295 wOBA. Now that can change in an instant and it’s a concern that the early returns have Kranick worse to the left side of the plate with a 5.39 xFIP. Arizona is 24th against the fastball so that could help Kranick as well. On a normal slate, we wouldn’t be looking. On this slate, he at least gets a mention.

Starting Rotation 7.21 Early Primary Stack

It’s very hard to ignore how bad Chris Flexen has been on the road, even if it’s not my favorite metric. The ERA is 5.92 and the xFIP is 5.22 with a .382 wOBA. I highly doubt that can improve in Coors Field, so we’re looking to the Rockies. Flexen is using the four-seam at least 33% to each side of the plate and we can turn to Trevor Story, C.J. Cron, Ryan McMahon, Garrett Hampson, and Charlie Blackmon today. They are all over a .325 wOBA and .166 ISO against the fastball and everyone is at least sitting at a .330 wOBA at home. 

Starting Rotation 7.21 Early Secondary Stacks 

• Braves against Chris Paddack 
• Padres against Kyle Muller
• Brewers against Brad Keller
• Mets against Jeff Hoffman 

Starting Rotation 7.21 Main Slate

Lance McCullers – It might stink that he’s so expensive but the options are not enjoyable tonight either. The Cleveland offense typically features 4-5 lefties and that means the curve could get a big workout. McCullers uses it to lefties almost exclusively and it has a .269 wOBA and 34.6% whiff rate. Not to be outdone, his slider is the weapon against righties and that has the best results of any pitch with a .210 wOBA and a 36.4% whiff rate. 

McCullers also features a massive 54.2% ground ball rate and it’s also notable that Cleveland is 29th in walk rate. That really helps McCullers since his walk rate is 11.9% which would be second if he qualified. Both sides of the plate are under a .295 wOBA and he’s among the safest options, even if you are paying a hefty price. 

Robbie Ray – I would think that Ray would start tonight since the Jays dodged a bullet last night. It was more or less going to be a bullpen game and now Ray gets to stick on normal rest. Boston is a dangerous offense but Ray already has a start of 27 DK against them and has come out of the gates on fire after the All-Star Break with 40 and 31 DK in consecutive starts. Boston is 12th against the fastball and that makes up just about 60% of his arsenal. The K-BB% is a career-high 25.7% and his swinging-strike rate is easily a career-best 15.3%. Boston is above average in every category we talk about but Ray has been so impressive this year and good pitching can beat good hitting. 

Jordan Hollaway – When a young guy puts together a couple of good starts, it tends to get my attention. So what exactly changed for Holloway? The one aspect that seems to really stand out is he is pounding the strike zone. Both starts saw him throw a first-pitch strike over 73% of the time and he generated a swinging-strike rate of at least 11.1%. His FIP from both starts was 0.40 and 1.97 to go along with a 2.45 and 3.07 xFIP. Holloway has a 12-2 K-BB ratio in these two games and even though it’s a total of 9.1 IP, he’s about the only other pitcher I’d be willing to gamble on. I think it’s either double ace or pick one and go with Holloway. 

Starting Rotation 7.21 Main Slate Honorable Mention 

Adam Wainwright – Waino is a pitcher that seems very much overpriced but the Cubs strike out so much that Wainwright conceivably could go for a big game. In his lone start, he got the Cubs for seven strikeouts throughout eight innings while giving up one hit. The Cubs are also seventh against the curve which is a bit concerning and I just generally think it’s too expensive. 

Starting Rotation 7.21 Primary Stack 

The field is likely going to be interested in the Philly/New York game and it should be. However, one reason I’m willing to take a shot on Holloway is to fit the Jays against Garrett Richards. He’s using the fastball roughly about 48% to righty hitters and the top six in the Jays lineup crush the fastball. Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, Vlad Jr., George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, and Randal Grichuk all have an ISO of at least .203 and a wOBA of at least .302. Everyone except Grichuk is over .365 in wOBA so there is so much to love for the Jays tonight, especially since it’s not a doubleheader. 

Starting Rotation 7.21 Secondary Stacks 

• Phillies/Yanks game stack 
• Astros against Eli Morgan
• Tigers against Jordan Lyles 
• Dodgers against Logan Webb

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.21 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 7.16

We are back in action after the All-Star Break and we have 14 scheduled games tonight. There were some Covid issues with the Boston and New York game last night that could have some potential to wreak havoc on this slate. We’ll keep tabs on it through the day but for now, let’s get started in the Starting Rotation 7.16! 

Starting Rotation 7.16 – Main Targets 

Kevin Gausman 

Cardinals Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 28th SF – 20th SL – 15th CH – 8th

I feel like it’s been forever since Gausman has been on the main slate and he is the most expensive option but he has been phenomenal this season. He sits behind only Jacob deGrom in ERA and WHIP. The K rate is 30.5% and even though St. Louis struck out 21.8% of the time to righty pitching on the first half, I’m not super concerned. His splitter has been evil and it’s the third-highest rated pitch in FanGraphs rating overall. He’s only allowed a .142 wOBA to go with a 50.1% whiff rate and 95 total strikeouts. The Cardinals lineup works perfectly for Gausman since he should face seven righties including the pitcher. In the first half, Gausman allowed a .181 wOBA, .305 OPS, 0.68 WHIP, and his 30.2% K rate. He’s the player that I’ll anchor to if I spend up at pitching tonight. 

Robbie Ray 

Rangers Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 16th SL – 17th CB – 22nd

The last time we saw Ray on the mound he was racking up 40 DK points against the Rays with 11 strikeouts. He doesn’t get the same style matchup since Tampa is over 27% and Texas is at 23.6%. The Rangers don’t look great against the pitch mix for Ray as well. The other positive for Ray is is the Rangers are struggling against lefties. They rank 20th or worse in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Ray is rocking a 32% K rate and his walk rate is still hovering around 6% which is a massive improvement from his career numbers. He also has a 15.7% swinging-strike rate which is the best mark since 2017. The wOBA is going to be high because his four-seam gives up home runs but Texas is so low in ISO and OPS that I’m not particularly worried here. If you’re going the double-ace route, these two are my preference. 

Kenta Maeda 

Tigers Ranks vs Pitch Types – SL – 26th SF – 25th FB – 19th 

It looks like we might be seeing the real Kenta Maeda on his way back. His past two starts have totaled 11 IP, 17 strikeouts, three walks, and zero earned runs. It’s only been 39 batters faced but the wOBA is down at .144 and the xFIP was at 2.18. We can’t expect the K rate to stand at 43.6% but the signs are so encouraging. He generated a 46% whiff rate in the last start and 32% in the start before that. Detroit was second in K rate to righty pitching at 26.6% and is no higher than 18th in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. I’m not as worried about Maeda starting against the Tigers twice in a row with the break in between. We need to ignore the seasonal numbers and attach to how he’s been pitching lately. 

Charlie Morton 

Rays Ranks vs Pitch Types – CB – 9th FB – 10th CT – 7th 

I wonder how popular Morton is going to be, but either way I would much rather play him in GPPs. There’s a risk here in spades since there should be four lefties in the lineup and that is the weaker side for Morton at a .288 wOBA. However, the upside is there as well. Firstly, the Rays have to give up the DH in Atlanta. Morton also whiffs the left side of the plate at a 31% rate and Tampa strikes out at 26.6%, tied for second. It’s not a surprise that the curve is Morton’s most-used pitch because it’s his best. The curve has a .193 wOBA, .177 slugging, 59 strikeouts, and a 43.3% whiff rate. Morton is a pitcher that has the widest range of outcomes but the ceiling is there for him. 

Chris Bassitt

Cleveland Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB -21st CT – 30th SL – 7th CH – 26th

Bassitt is at home which does always make me more interested since pitching in Oakland is an advantage most nights. They rank 26th in park factors so it’s not a surprise that Bassitt has a 2.55 ERA and a .245 wOBA at home to go along with a 23.4% K rate. Now, this is a good example of those splits being a little noisy because the xFIP at home is 3.90 and the road mark is 4.02, not all that different. His WHIP and K rate is better against lefties at 0.96 and 25% and Cleveland should have 4-5 in the lineup tonight. Cleveland whiffs at a 23.3% rate and Bassitt seems a little underpriced. Living in the mid-range with Bassitt, Maeda, or Morton isn’t the worst idea tonight. 

Note – As of this writing, we still have multiple teams without listed starters. The lower tier of options looks rough, but stay tuned in the Discord for updates.

Starting Rotation 7.16 Honorable Mention

Brandon Woodruff – He’s been more of a floor option since the start of June with five starts under 25 DK points in seven starts. The ERA was above 3.25 through the entire month and the FIP was 4.26. In fairness, the K rate was 29.5% but the xFIP was over 3.00 and the wOBA was over .280. There’s nothing terribly wrong with Woodruff but I’d like to find the $800 to pay for Gausman. 

Lance McCullers – I prefer Ray but McCullers does have a K rate over 26% himself and the White Sox whiff 23% of the time to righty pitching. They also are second in ground ball rate at 47.5% while McCullers would be sixth in ground ball rate at 52.5%. He also has a whiff rate over 33% on both his slider and curveball which helps. I don’t love the White Sox sitting third in walk rate at 10.7% since McCullers has a 12.2% walk rate and that’s one of the reasons I’ll go Ray ahead of him. 

Andrew Heaney – I suspect he will be chalky and you can argue that he should be with a 28.5% K rate on the season, not to mention his 3.85 xFIP is way more appealing than the 5.38 ERA. What I’m not excited about is Seattle typically playing 4-5 lefties even against lefty pitching. Heaney has a 19.5% K rate and a 4.91 xFIP to the left side of the plate. With Heaney having some issues keeping the ball in the park, things could get ugly and Chalk Heaney rarely works out. 

Starting Rotation 7.16 Primary Stack 

Danny Duffy has not looked all the way right since returning from injury and in his 15.1 IP, he’s giving up over a .350 wOBA, his K rate has dropped, and his velocity is down across the board. The seasonal numbers suggested regression as it is so all the factors are working against him. Righties have a 4.44 xFIP and his K rate drops to just 24.1%. He’s leaning heavily on the fastball to righties and it’s giving up a .302 wOBA. 

Baltimore hitters are extremely cheap as Trey Mancini is the most expensive at $4,500. He, Austin Hays, Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins, and Pedro Severino are all over a .305 wOBA and everyone is over a .175 ISO except for Severino. Mullins, Hays, Mancini, and Ryan Mountcastle (over a .340 wOBA and .190 ISO) are all in play and you can roll any pitching combo you like with money left over for some more expensive hitters. 

Starting Rotation 7.16 Secondary Stacks 

• Blue Jays against Jordan Lyles (very expensive)
• Royals against Keegan Akin 
• Twins against Matt Manning
• Nationals against Chris Paddack (top of the lineup)
• Coors Field 
• Mariners against Heaney as a GPP mini-stack for leverage

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.16 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 7.11

We have the last slate before the All-Star Break so pitter-patter, let’s get at’er. If you’re not sure about that reference, you should check out the show Letterkenny over the break but for today, we have 11 games to figure out. We only have one “ace” per se but there’s a bunch of options on the first look in the Starting Rotation 7.11 including two very cheap pitchers that have my eye. 

Starting Rotation 7.11

Brandon Woodruff – I probably exaggerated when I said there was only one ace on the mound today. Woodruff has been one of them this season but we do have Aaron Nola as well, just in a poor spot. Anyway, Woodruff sports a 30.7% K rate and a 2.91 xFIP to go along with a 2.10 ERA. His WHIP is 0.78 and that trails only Jacob deGrom in the league. That’s a serious bonus for DK where pitchers get docked for hits and walks. The hard-hit rate is also under 27% to go along with a swinging-strike rate of 12%. 

This is a strength-on-strength matchup in one respect because Cincinnati is fourth against the fastball and the four-seam has been the best weapon for Woodruff. It has a .194 wOBA, 29.2% whiff rate, and 71 strikeouts. Woodruff has both sides of the plate under a .235 wOBA, under a 3.00 xFIP, and above a 29.5% K rate. I tend to think the last start was a bump in the road as opposed to anything with the crackdown on the sticky stuff. In the two starts directly before that, he racked up 17 strikeouts in 13 innings with just two earned runs. I do prefer him to Nola on this slate. 

Robbie Ray – It’s the second straight time around against Tampa for Ray and you should sort of know the story by now. Tampa is one of the larger boom or bust offenses in baseball as they whiff at a 27% rate against lefties. The bad news is Tampa is 10th against the fastball and Ray has given up 12 home runs on that pitch already. It’s helped him cut his walks drastically to just 6.3% so it’s been worth the trade-off for the most part. It just leaves him vulnerable to the long ball with a .310 wOBA allowed on that pitch. Ray does use the slider at a 27% clip and that does have the slight edge in strikeouts with 56 and the Rays rank 25th against the said pitch. Interestingly, Ray has racked up the highest swinging-strike rate of his career at 15.2% when he’s using the four-seam as much as ever. Pitching has been unpredictable lately but the range of outcomes is wild for Ray. If you’re going here, be prepared for that. 

Jose Berrios – So the next three pitchers are almost 100% where I’m going to be spending this slate. Don’t get me wrong, Woodruff and Ray have a ceiling but this group of three pitchers is all wildly mispriced and it’s a gift from DK. Berrios racked up 31.4 DK points in the last start and even though he can be tough o get right, his price went down by $800 and he draws a Tigers lineup that still strikes out the second-most against righties on the season. In the last 14 days, the K rate has spiked up to 27.4% and Berrios is almost at a 26% K rate himself. 

Detroit is 27th against the curve and that’s the primary pitch for Berrios with a 36.5% whiff rate, .262 wOBA, and 51 of 103 strikeouts. No other pitch has a whiff rate over 28.9% and his four-seam has been something that teams have picked on. It has a .369 wOBA but Detroit is 21st against it this season. The issues Berrios has shown against lefties do concern me with a .371 wOBA and 4.17 xFIP, but the .344 BABIP does help soothe some issues I have. If this choice isn’t your speed, perhaps you’ll feel better about the next two. 

Luis Castillo – The strikeouts may not have been there for Castillo in the last game but Castillo went another seven innings with only one earned run allowed. Since June started, Castillo has now pitched 45 innings and given up a total of 10 earned runs. Now he gets Milwaukee who struggled to put up runs last night (I’m not bitter, why do you ask), and can strike out at a top-five rate against any pitcher, let alone one like Castillo. He’s faced the Brewers twice in this run and scored 17.8 DK and 26.2 DK, either of which would have been acceptable at this salary. The wOBA allowed has not been over .231 since the calendar turned and while I agree that June 1st is a very arbitrary date, it’s easier to believe in it when it’s a pitcher like Castillo. His seasonal stats don’t matter as much in my eyes and the K rate was over 25% since June as well. For once, Castillo deserves to be chalky. 

Pablo Lopez – I’m leading this one off by wishing Ronald Acuna a speedy recovery from his torn ACL that occurred yesterday. It really is a bummer to see baseball lose a talent like Acuna for an extended period and hopefully, he’s ready to go for next season. As for today, I would have been interested in Lopez if Acuna was playing despite the fact he got ejected two starts ago for hitting Acuna with a pitch. That’s not a concern and we get Lopez at home coming off whiffing eight Dodgers on 91 pitches. Unfortunately, he only went four innings but I think we get him deeper into the game today. 

Lopez continues to dominate at home with a 2.03 ERA, 28% K rate, 3.01 xFIP, and a .256 wOBA. The changeup has a .286 wOBA and Atlanta does rank inside the top 10 against it but this offense isn’t in the best shape right now. It also has 53 strikeouts out of the 102 that Lopez has on the season and with the loss of Acuna, Lopez is absurdly low for salary. I fully intend on making my lineups to be mostly focused on Lopez, Castillo, and Berrios for this slate. 

Starting Rotation 7.11 Honorable Mention 

Aaron Nola – Any pitcher that has a 29.5% K rate has to be in play to some extent. Pitching in Boston isn’t very easy and I think Woodruff has the softer landing spot but we should pay attention to ownership projections. If you’re rolling multiple lines and Nola is a fraction of the popularity, it’s well with going for it. GPP is inherently risky as it is. 

Chris Bassitt – The righty for the A’s has some of the same style of issues that James Kaprielian did yesterday. The road ERA jumps over 4.10 and the wOBA is .311. Where he differs is the xFIP is the same road or home and the K rate is higher on the road at 26.8%. Texas whiffs 24.6% of the time against righty pitching and that’s in the top 12. Bassitt being under $9,000 is very intriguing and I’m not going to complain if you land here. 

Wily Peralta – Do I believe in Peralta and his 2.14 ERA/4.13 xFIP combo? Not particularly, but it’s also absurd that his price went down after 22.9 DK and 30 DK in his past two starts. The K rate might be only 17.1% but he’s also under $5,000. Given the values we have with the trio I really like, I don’t think we need to take a huge chance but that could always change if the Twins decide to send out a lesser lineup. 

Starting Rotation 7.11 Primary Stack 

I would have to assume the field runs to the White Sox who have scored 15 runs in the past two games and draw Spenser Watkins, who has six innings at the major league level. He looks like he pitched well against the Blue Jays but left that start with a 6.34 SIERA and 5.23 xFIP with a 33.3% hard-hit rate. Suffice to say, the White Sox stand out as an elite stacking option so let’s talk about a “secondary” stack o go with them. 

Come on and meet the Mets! They face Chase De Jong who has a 5.27 xFIP to lefties and a 17.3% K rate. His overall hard-hit rate is 41% with a 12.4% barrel rate and he uses the fastball about 48% of the time to each side of the plate. That fastball has a 22% ground ball rate, 13.9% whiff rate, and a hard-hit rate allowed of almost 54%. The top seven hitters in the projected order all have an ISO over .205 and a wOBA over .350 against that pitch. My main three targets are Francisco Lindor, Dominic Smith, and Pete Alonso as they all have a hard-hit rate over 47% and Alonso is the only one with a whiff rate over 18%. From there, you can decide to use Brandon Nimmo as the lead-off hitter or go deeper into the order and work with the White Sox for the rest of the lineup. 

Starting Rotation 7.11 Secondary Stacks 

• Cardinals against Trevor Williams
• Cleveland against Kris Bubic 
• A’s against Kolby Allard 
• Blue Jays against Rich Hill 
• Pirates against Thomas Szapucki 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.11 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 7.10

Saturday brings us one step closer to the All-Star Break and we have two separate slates of six games today. It’s interesting because we have a pitcher on each slate that exceeds $10,000 and I believe you can argue to fade both of them and go different routes. Let’s get into both slates and discuss how to approach it in the Starting Rotation 7.10 to lay our foundations for green! 

Note – We had to trim down the formatting just a bit due to work obligations. The research is no different than any other slate so let’s crush it! 

Starting Rotation 7.10 – Early 

Lucas Giolito – Can I start this one off with a long, exhausted sigh? Giolito has been positively maddening this season and he’s coming off yet another rough outing. He hasn’t been above 24 DK points since May and the spin rates have been down as well. This past start looks really poor combined with the results. 

Baltimore is a top 10 offense in K rate this season at 24.7% and Giolito still has a 28.9% K rate on the season to go with a 15.6% swinging-strike rate. There’s still a good pitcher in here somewhere but I wonder if he’s worth over $10,000. His fastball has been such an issue with a .344 wOBA and the whiff rate is down 5.5% from last season. The splits are a bit worrisome as well because righties have a .345 wOBA and a 2.42 HR/9 to go with a 5.28 FIP. That’s fairly ugly even though the 3.77 xFIP does point towards some bad luck. I think the best approach will likely be to eat this in cash but I would argue he’s not a must-play in GPP. If the Orioles can get to him and he’s over 50%, that’s a huge win. Giolito hasn’t been the same player as 2020. 

Anthony DeSclafani – I am not a fan of the salary at all because Tony Disco has some wild outcomes in his game logs. He’s scored 43 DK points, 13.1 DK points and everywhere in between in the past five starts alone. His top two pitches are the slider and four-seam, both of which have a whiff rate of at least 25%. Washington is inside the top 12 against both pitches but that alone doesn’t disqualify DeSclafani and his 23.3% K rate. The swinging-strike rate of 11.3% is the best of his career so far and he should have five righties along with the pitcher spot against him today. That would help as he has a .215 wOBA against that side of the plate and a 0.51 HR/9. The ERA is higher at home which is odd but the xFIP of 3.42 is lower and that’s likely the truer measure of him pitching in San Francisco. The K rate is stagnant so that’s not a big deal breaker and he is my favorite high-end spend today. 

Trevor Rogers – When I saw this matchup, my first thought was this is a big boom or bust spot for Rogers. That’s really not fair to him as he does not have a single start this year that he’s surrendered more than three earned runs and he’s whiffed at least five hitters every time out. In his lone start against the Braves this year, he went five and whiffed seven with two earned given up and his four-seam continues to be the main weapon. He has recorded 118 strikeouts and 74 have come from the four-seam while it carries a .290 wOBA and a 29.2% whiff rate. 

This is where things get tough for Rogers because Atlanta ranks ninth against the fastball and sits first in ISO. They are all over the board for the rest of our offensive categories and they still do strike out quite a bit at 24.8% so as a team, they are difficult to gauge. Atlanta can put out eight righties in the lineup but Rogers counters with a .253 wOBA, 2.60 FIP, 3.37 xFIP, and a 30.3% K rate. He’s relatively cheap given the metrics even if it’s not a total smash spot on paper. 

Marcus Stroman – Is this where Stro puts his foot down? Pittsburgh can be pesky since they aren’t a big strikeout offense but they simply aren’t a good offense either. With this game only being scheduled for seven innings, I don’t think it’s totally crazy to think Stroman has a shot a complete game. One aspect of his pitch mix that could really be stealthy is the Bucs are projected to be lefty-heavy. Stroman’s overall strikeout rate to lefties is paltry at 18.2% but his splitter has a 38.1% whiff rate. That’s the highest of any pitch and he uses that as his third pitch to lefties behind the sinker and cutter. He also generates a 58% ground ball rate to lefties with a 32.4% hard-hit rate and that could lead to some quick innings. He’s really struggled lately but this is a get-right spot, Taijuan Walker’s struggles duly noted. 

Starting Rotation 7.10 Early Honorable Mention 

James Kaprielian – The price is sky-high after a 30 DK point outing and I’m not terribly crazy about it. If he was cheaper he would be a primary target and it still nags me that he has a 4.24 xFIP compared to a 2.84 ERA but the kid is making it all work for him so far. His four-seam is his best friend and worst enemy because it has 37 of 62 strikeouts but also has a .344 wOBA and six of eight home runs allowed. The road metrics weigh slightly heavier since Oakland is so pitcher-friendly and Kaprielian has a 4.06 ERA and .330 wOBA on the road. Combined with a .374 wOBA to lefties (Joey Gallo hits lefty and has a .291 ISO against fastballs) combined with a 19.8% K rate, 5.84 FIP, and 5.29 xFIP, I can’t see myself paying the price for him. 

Starting Rotation 7.10 Early Primary Stack 

I know Brian is off today and he expects me to write up Giants against Jon Lester but….they are NOT cheap. We might be able to find some value from the catcher spot and others for San Francisco but a full stack costs you. If I’m spending big, I’m going back to Baltimore and picking some White Sox hitters once again. We all know the drill by now that the Orioles pitchers are not good at all. Thomas Eshelman has a 6.85 xFIP and he gets hammered by both sides of the plate. Righties have a wOBA of .418 and lefties have an xFIP over 8.00. 

Every single pitch for him has an ISO over .240 and a wOBA over .300 except the fastball…which is his least-used pitch. We can load up with two out of three from Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada and then finish off the stack with hitters like Brian Goodwin, Leury Garcia, Gavin Sheets, or Andrew Vaughn. Even players like Jake Burger and Zack Collins are all in play (I would prefer Curt Casali from the Giants) but the bottom line is to go White Sox. They aren’t even that pricey after the top three hitters. It’s not hard to build a five-man stack if you wish. 

Starting Rotation 7.10 Early Secondary Stacks 

• Red Sox against Matt Moore
• Mets against Tyler Anderson
• Rangers lefties against James Kaprielian 

Starting Rotation 7.10 – Main

Freddy Peralta – I will absolutely continue to fade Gerrit Cole until he shows me he’s figured out how to pitch without Spider Tack. Since the crackdown, Cole has a 4.47 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and a 9.8 K/9 in almost an identical sample size of innings pitched prior to the crackdown. Heading into Houston isn’t where I want to test that. 

Instead, that leaves us a choice among the expensive options between Peralta and the next man on our list. Peralta continues to have some control issues with five walks in the last outing and an 11.5% walk rate on the season but the 35.4% K rate is top-five in baseball. It feels extremely difficult to ignore that at this price tag because the ceiling is just so high. Just like Charlie Morton yesterday, Peralta does have some interesting history against the Reds this season and this will be the fourth time in the past 10 starts he’s faced them. He’s accumulated 15.2 IP, 19 K’s, six walks, but only five earned runs. Cincinnati is only 15th in walk rate so in the exact same vein as Morton, Peralta should work much better in this spot. 

The Reds are top-five against the fastball but 23rd against the slider on the season. If there’s a bad sign for Peralta, it is the fastball because even though he’s shed the “Fastball Freddy” moniker this season, it still has been the best strikeout pitch for him. Of the 129 he has on the year, 73 have come from the four-seam and it has a 31.5% whiff rate. Cincinnati also will have a balanced lineup likely (four righties and four lefties) and lefties have been a small issue. They have a 4.53 xFIP and “just” a 29.6% K rate compared to a 2.58 xFIP and 42.4% K rate to righties. The salary on DK is just too cheap here in my eyes at barely $9,000. 

Walker Buehler – If the seasonal history against an opponent does something for you, Buehler likely is your choice tonight unless you go double ace. He’s faced this D-Backs offense twice and cleared 30 DK points each time with 14.1 IP, 18 K’s, two ER, and six walks. My hangup is the K rate for Buehler is 10% lower at 25.5% and that is a steep drop-off. Arizona helps this along because they do strike out about 2% more than the Reds do but it’s hard to square that difference up. 

Buehler also has a 3.76 xFIP which isn’t exactly terrible or anything but the 2.49 ERA might have room to climb. Buehler has also seen his swinging-strike rate and CSW decrease this season which is a slight concern. It’s worth pointing out that Buehler is worse against lefty hitters but we’re somewhat splitting hairs at that point. The .261 wOBA isn’t anything to fear and his xFIP is higher to righties and the K rate is stagnant to each side. Buehler features his four-seam heavily just like Peralta and has 52 of 107 strikeouts from that pitch. Every single one of his pitches has a wOBA under .285 and with the salaries involved, you can likely make a double-ace approach work. I prefer Peralta but I do admit my bias because Buehler gets smacked seemingly every time I play him. 

Starting Rotation Special 

This comes with the usual caveat if he turns out to be popular, he doesn’t qualify as a Special. We’ll see what shakes out but I think I may be forced to drop the Special label on such a condensed slate. Do I believe this pitcher is truly worth this salary and is suddenly this pitcher with a 3.86 ERA and 3.85 xFIP? Not exactly, but against this particular offense, I’m willing to try and find out. He’s sporting a 26% K rate and a hard-hit rate under 30% while generating a 52.8% ground ball rate and a 16.8% swinging-strike rate. Those numbers are what we like to chase, everyone. Sure, the SwStr% won’t stick that high but his start looks real by plenty of metrics at our disposal. The opposition typically leaves 4-5 lefties in the lineup even against lefty pitching and the Special is giving up a .276 wOBA, 31.9% K rate, and a 2.22 xFIP to that side. That’s not even my favorite part of this play. 

Still just 24-years old, the Special has changed his pitch mix this season. His changeup now leads the mix and the four-seam is second instead of first. His four-seam is up just a tick but nothing crazy and it’s been that change that has altered his fortunes on the mound. He’s thrown 274 thus far and given up eight hits (seven singles and one homer) while allowing a .177 wOBA and a .116 average. The whiff rate is 55.7% (!) and it has a 7.7 rating on FanGraphs. If he qualified, that would be a top-five changeup in baseball in just 49 IP. The opposing offense currently ranks 28th against the change and if those metrics hold, Patrick Sandoval would be an outstanding play. 

Starting Rotation 7.10 Honorable Mention 

Joe Musgrove – Gross. He’s another pitcher who has really struggled with the crackdown although his last two starts haven’t seen some giant shift in the spin rates. What I’m sort of hoping for is everyone gravitates to the Rocky Road matchup (Blake Snell was tracking inside the top-five in ownership yesterday on a 14-game slate) and we can get Sandoval at half the attention. The K rate is over 29% and the xFIP is only 3.33 but he just hasn’t been able to put it together that much for well over a month now. The last time he topped 19 DK was June 5th. 

Chris Flexen – I would go against what I typically use but Flexen has been a very different pitcher depending on where he’s pitching. In 54.1 IP at home, he has a 1.99 ERA, .254 wOBA, 18% K rate, and a 3.98 xFIP. Compare that to the same stats on the road of a 6.97 ERA, .400 wOBA, 14.1% K rate, and a 5.14 xFIP. Should that be a deciding factor, probably not but the Angels offense is currently still missing Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Justin Upton. On a six-game slate and at $7,000 I suppose he could get a look. 

Starting Rotation 7.10 Main Primary Stack 

Vladimir Gutierrez toes the rubber tonight for the Reds and that means I’m looking towards the Milwaukee Brewers. The righty for Cincinnati is currently sporting a 14.9% K rate to lefties to go along with a 5.62 FIP and 6.42 xFIP. If you’re not going to strike out the Brew Crew hitters, they can make it hurt. The fastball and changeup make up about 60% of the mix for Gutierrez to lefties and those pitches are getting mauled, each giving up an ISO of at least .275 and a wOBA over .375. The average distance is 333 feet and the hard-hit rate is getting towards 56% for the fastball. 

The obvious choices here are Christian Yelich and Omar Narvaez, both of whom have a wOBA over .361. Yelich also has a .430 wOBA and .291 ISO against the fastball. How can we get to those pieces while using pricey pitching? The first player is Jace Peterson and his .408 wOBA against fastballs and .216 ISO against righty pitching. Also don’t sleep on Rowdy “Roddy” Tellez, recently of the Blue Jays if he’s playing first. These salary savers allow us to spend on pitching and can even throw in a Willy Adames and his .414 wOBA against righties in a Brewers uniform. 

Starting Rotation 7.10 Main Secondary Stacks 

• Cubs against Kwang Hyun Kim
• Dodgers against Caleb Smith 
• Astros against Gerrit Cole 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.10 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 7.9

It’s Friday and based on the first look, this slate of pitching is going to be pretty difficult in some respects. There are a ton of pitchers up top in salary that has zero business being there. I think that could mean we live more in the mid-range but let’s go over everything and figure out where we’re heading in Starting Rotation 7.9! 

Starting Rotation 7.9

Starting Rotation 7.9 Upper Tier 

We’re going to deal with this slate a little differently and I’ll classify the Upper Tier as pitchers above $9,000 tonight. A couple of them have some potential but the price is totally egregious. I’m going to say now that past ownership in cash, I don’t believe there is a “must-have” pitcher tonight. I will also note that Taijuan Walker will be starting for the Mets and is right at the edge of this tier. His analysis is in yesterday’s article!

Jake Odorizzi leads the pack in salary and we just saw a fastball-heavy approach from a righty pitcher quiet the Yankees back. That doesn’t mean Odorizzi and Logan Gilbert are the same, but Odorizzi definitely lines up well against the Yankees given the metrics he’s produced so far. Righty hitters only have a .215 wOBA with a 3.67 xFIP. The K rate is only 24.4% and I’m just concerned if he can get over the 20 DK hump here. 

Alex Cobb has shown his complete instability in the past five starts. One has been 18 DK, two have been in the negatives, and two have been over 28 DK. That’s not exactly who I want to fork over $9,800 for and Cobb can be tricky to get right. The ERA is 4.60 and the xFIP is 2.79, but they’ve been that way the whole season. Cobb would also feature splits that are appealing as lefties have a .236 wOBA, 3.01 xFIP, and a 26.7% K rate. Seattle can whiff with the best of them at over 26% and he features the splitter. It has a 36.2% whiff rate and Seattle is 28th against said pitch this season. If he was $2,000 cheaper, I would be very excited. 

Charlie Morton is my favorite of the upper tier…I think. The Marlins would look like a target with just about any competent pitcher but it has to be noted Morton has faced them three times already. He’s totaled 15.1 IP, 13 ER, 19 strikeouts, and eight walks. It’s pretty bizarre to see that since the Marlins are a top-six team in K rate at 25.5% and sit 21st or worse in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and OBP. Everything should line up for Morton as he has a .268 wOBA to righties and a 25.9% K rate. His main two pitches are the four-seam and curve and the Marlins are 18th or worse against those pitches. Every metric we value says Morton is the best play but it doesn’t bring me a lot of comfort to see those three starts already this season. 

Rank – Morton, Walker, Odorizzi, Cobb

Starting Rotation 7.9 Middle Tier 

Cole Irvin – This will almost certainly be where I’m living tonight because I don’t want to spend on pitching I don’t particularly love. Texas isn’t the same exact strikeout matchup against lefties at just 23.6% and perhaps the biggest issue for Irvin is he only has a 17.3% K rate himself. What helps is they are also bottom 10 in OBP, OPS, slugging, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ on the season including all the way down at 28th in ISO. The Rangers also are fourth in ground ball rate which helps Irvin and his paltry 37.1% rate. Both his fastball and changeup are at a .280 wOBA or below and Irvin has walked through tougher matchups than this so far, despite his xFIP over 4.50. 

Kenta Maeda – I would suspect this will be the chalkiest play of the slate after Maeda dropped 35 DK points at 5% ownership. Brian and the WD team had the majority of that ownership but it won’t be the same tonight. Maeda’s seasonal stats are far less important than what he showed in his last start. Maeda generated a 32% whiff rate and his slider/splitter combo was on full display. He’s been slightly better to lefty hitters on the season which does help and we know that Detroit is in the top three when it comes to K rate. The Tigers are also 22nd or worse against the slider and splitter and I believe Maeda could be on his way back after a pretty rotten first half. 

Alek Manoah – Some of the analysis is going to repeat from yesterday even though the matchup is different. Having said that, I think we need to discuss the risk associated even with this salary which is not different than yesterday. His slider has been the key to his success because in the two games it has been in the negatives in FanGraphs ratings, he’s gotten hammered. When it’s been a good pitch, he’s seen his best starts including this last one, one against Boston, and his debut. That pitch leads the pack with a 34.7% whiff rate and 22 strikeouts so far. By his splits, the Rays are a poor matchup for him since he gives up a .333 wOBA and a 2.12 HR/9. However, that didn’t stop Manoah from racking up 10 strikeouts in his last start against them. If he’s popular at this price point I’ll play him in cash but if not, he should be GPP-only since he just faced Tampa and has flaws in his game. 

Rank – Maeda, Irvin, Manoah

Starting Rotation 7.9 Primary Stack 

Triston McKenzie takes the hill tonight for Cleveland and that means I’m looking directly towards a Royals stack. McKenzie has a 6.38 ERA and a 5.33 xFIP so I can’t say he’s just been unlucky and even though the Royals don’t have the best offense, they can get the job done here. He’s using the fastball 55% to righties and 60% to lefties and it gives up a .171 ISO, .319 wOBA, and 322 average distance. Whit Merrifield, Andrew Benintendi, Salvador Perez, Carlos Santana, and Hunter Dozier all have ISO’s over .200 (Dozier is over .300) and wOBA’s over .350. 

Dozier is the only player that has a wOBA under .300 on the season against righties so the whole top of the order is in play. McKenzie has been worse to lefties with a .363 wOBA and a 5.79 xFIP so that’s where their advantage lies. The righties advantage could lay in the slider data. McKenzie uses is 32% to righties and it has a 378-foot average distance. Merrifield looks weak against that pitch but Perez has a 49% hard-hit rate and a .230 ISO against it. The top five are easy to love in this spot. 

Starting Rotation 7.9 Secondary Stacks

• Twins against Matt Manning (it was a tough decision between them and the Royals)
• White Sox against Jorge Lopez
• Giants against Paulo Espino 
• Red Sox against Vince Velasquez
• Braves against Zach Thompson 
• A’s against Jordan Lyles, who threw 124 pitches last time out

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.9 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 7.7

We press on in the MLB this Wednesday with a split slate today. In the early afternoon, we have a five-game slate with a nine-game nightcap. Hopefully, we don’t have to deal with the weather tilt that we did last night so let’s get right to work in Starting Rotation 7.7! 

Starting Rotation 7.7 – Early Slate

Lance Lynn – The price is where it deserves to be and I believe Lynn is the most talented pitcher on the slate. The slight issue is the K rate to lefties is just 22.9%, the xFIP is 4.90, and the wOBA is .281. Now we went against that in his last start and the Tigers rolled out a bunch of lefties, but the Tigers are second in K rate at 26.3% and the Twins sit at 22.8%. That’s actually even lower in the past 14 days and on top of that, the Twins are the best team against the fastball in the league. Lynn throws a variation of the fastball about 60% of the time. He’ll likely be chalky and I wonder if we can get away with a fade. Let’s see who else is on tap for us. 

Kyle Gibson – The price is still crazy high but Gibson does have both sides of the plate under .260 and the WHIP is under 1.05. Similar to Lynn, Gibson sees his K rate dip to just 19% to lefties and the Tigers will typically be lefty-heavy. Gibson added the cutter this season and he throws it around 13% but it hasn’t been a good pitch for him. It sits at a .412 wOBA and what worries me is it has two strikeouts total on the year and it’s basically the primary pitch to lefties. Both higher salaried pitchers have upside but both have some flaws at their prices. 

Sonny Gray – He came back from the IL in his last start and threw 86 pitches so I don’t expect any limitations this time around. That’s a great thing because Gray is very underpriced and I would expect him to be the highest-owned pitcher on this slate. I’m fine rolling with it as he has a 30.8% K rate and a 46.4% ground ball rate. There will likely be five righties in the lineup and the .353 wOBA looks rough, but the matching .353 BABIP has to come lower at some point. The four lefties play more into Gray’s strength at a 33.6% K rate and a 2.64 xFIP. 

Starting Rotation 7.7 Primary Stack

I’m looking towards the Texas Rangers today to save some salary because Casey Mize has shown improvements but still scuffles against lefty hitters. He’s given up a .351 wOBA, 2.20 HR/9, and a 5.89 FIP. The most-used pitch is the fastball at about 33% and the Rangers lefties hammer that pitch. Nate Lowe, Joey Gallo, Brock Holt, and even David Dahl have ISO’s above .180 and wOBA’s over .375. I will likely max out at four Ranger and with no salary-saving pitcher, let’s talk about a punt offensive player. I’d love to roll a Rays stack but this is a seven-inning doubleheader. With the Rays at home, we’re only guaranteed six innings for the Rays. However, Vidal Brujan is on the big league club. He’s a prospect of pedigree and has a .212 ISO, .356 wOBA, and has never had a K rate over 15.7% in the minors. He’s minimum and can fly with 15 stolen bases so even a hit and SB makes his salary work. 

Starting Rotation 7.7 Secondary Stacks 

• Reds against Brady Singer 
• Braves against Wil Crowe 

Starting Rotation 7.7 – Main Slate 

Zack Wheeler 

It’s not often that we don’t start a slate with Corbin Burnes but we’ll get to him. 

Burnes is now pitching Game 1 of a double-header so that’s a moot point for the main slate. 

Instead, Wheeler is my SP1 on this slate as Chicago leads the league in K rate to righty pitching and sit at 32.5% over the past 14 days. They are below average to the main pitches for Wheeler and he’s rocking a 31.3% K rate himself. Wheeler has utilized the slider more this season at about 26% and it has 42 strikeouts, a .218 wOBA, and a 31.8% whiff rate. Even though he doesn’t use the curve a ton, it has a 46.9% whiff rate and 22 strikeouts on its own. That doesn’t even count the four-seam which leads at 57 and only has a .287 wOBA. 

Overall, Wheeler has generated a 12.7% swinging-strike rate and has both sides of the plate under a .245 wOBA. The lineup for the Cubs will likely be balanced but the more lefties, the better. Wheeler jumps up to a 34.1% K rate to that side of the plate and the xFIP is under 3.00 to each side. It’s hard to find much of a hole in his game right now. 

Domingo German 

I can’t say I’m overjoyed with this play but we have to look at the salary involved and just how much Seattle strikes out. It’s over 25% no matter how you slice it and that should help German and his 21.1% K rate. His curveball has been excellent this season with a .196 wOBA and a 39.6% whiff rate. Seattle is bottom 10 against his entire pitch mix, which is another big boost for German in this spot. It’s exciting to see the four-seam might be able to get by Seattle because that pitch has been a huge trouble spot this season for him. It’s sporting a .433 wOBA and has given up nine bombs. Whereas Jameson Taillon had a splits disadvantage last night, German doesn’t have those same issues. He’s a bit better to the left side of the plate with a .306 wOBA but the xFIP is about equal to each side right around 4.50. There’s not really anything special about German, you’re playing him for some savings and the matchup. 

David Price 

I’m not as worried about the pitch mix because Price doesn’t throw anything over 37% and he’s not going to be in the game long enough to face the lineup a third time. I want to see how news breaks for Price tonight before strongly considering him. I’ll have a cheaper player in Honorable Mention that could be in this slot as well. The Dodgers need to stretch Price out as they look for a fifth starter. Now, we’re going to need some efficiency from Price since he just threw 42 pitches on Sunday. I believe we could get 55-60 tonight and if he wasn’t so cheap, I wouldn’t consider it. The K rate for Miami against lefties is also 27.6% so that helps a whole lot as well. They are bottom-five across all of our offensive categories. Price only has a 21.7% K rate across his relief innings so far but that jumps to 25% against righty hitters with a 3.40 xFIP. Miami should go with seven righties and the pitcher spot, which is enough for me. 

Starting Rotation Special 

This offense has been on fire lately and the Special is not cheap tonight. In the past 14 days, this offense is in the top-six in all of our offensive categories and is under a 24% strikeout rate. However, the Special is quietly turning into a borderline ace this season. He’s likely better suited to be a number two in a rotation, but the strides have been real. The cutter is being thrown about 40% of the time and the offense is 24th against it, while his four-seam/slider combo both sit over a 33% whiff rate and under a .250 wOBA. Overall, his K rate is 25.4% with a 53.8% ground ball rate and a 13.4% swinging-strike rate. This pitcher hasn’t been bothered by the sticky stuff crackdown with at least 23 DK points in his past four starts. He’s only given up three earned across 26.2 IP while facing Cleveland, Tampa, Chicago White Sox, and Toronto. He likely has to face nine righties but has held them to a 3.66 xFIP, a .295 wOBA, and a 27.1% hard-hit rate. If you want to go a different route, Yusei Kikuchi is your man tonight. 

Starting Rotation 7.7 Honorable Mention 

Luis Garcia – I think the salary is pretty high for Garcia and he’s sort of an odd pitcher to gauge. He throws the four-seam over 48% of the time and it has 31 strikeouts. It also has six homers given up, a .378 wOBA, and a 19% whiff rate. Garcia’s secondary stuff is nasty as both his cutter and slider have a whiff rate above 45% but neither pitch is thrown more than 19.1%. He also sees significant splits with a .338 wOBA to lefties compared to a .243 mark to righties. Garcia also whiffs 30.3% of the righties he faces so let’s see the A’s lineup before deciding. 

Alex Wood – It’s a tough spot for Wood in perception, but can we possibly take advantage of that? St. Louis is loaded with righties but they have disappointed this season, sitting 20th in ISO, 17th in wOBA, 16th in wRC+, and 16th in OPS. They do only strike out 22% of the time but Wood counters with a 25.5% rate. The slider is his out pitch and the Cards rank 13th against it but is at a -8.0 on FanGraphs rating. Wood has been slightly better against the right side of the plate with a 3.55 xFIP, K rate over 27%, and a wOBA under .300. The salary is fine if a tad high but this slate doesn’t have a ton of options without some flaws. 

Humberto Castellanos – The 23-year old righty draws the Rocky Road start and he has a very limited major league track record, but it’s not horrible. The K rate is 20.4%, the xFIP is 4.66, the ground ball rate is about 46%, and the hard-hit rate in 11.2 IP this year is under 30%. There is certainly nothing special about him but at the stone minimum, he could be worth a shot and if he goes four reasonable innings to get 12-15, you could do way worse. 

Starting Rotation 7.7 Primary Stack 

The Blue Jays were disappointing for the most part last night but I’m going right back to the well. Matt Harvey is on the mound once again and he throws his fastball 42% of the time to righties and it’s giving up a 50% hard contact rate, a .416 wOBA, .273 ISO, and a 315-foot average distance. The Jays hammer that pitch as a team. 

On top of all that, Harvey has a .408 wOBA to righty hitters along with a 1.057 OPS. Vlad, George Springer, and Marcus Semien all have a wOBA over .380 and an ISO of at least .261. Stepping down just a bit, Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Randal Grichuk all sit over a .300 wOBA themselves. This is the offense that has me thinking about pairing Wheeler with Castellanos and going with all the bats. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.7 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 7.6

Let me be the first one to wish the Win Daily crew Happy Jacob deGrom Day! We all know that Rotation takes on a bit of a different format on those days and it’s going to be mainly concentrated on finding a great SP2 to go with him. We’re going to have some strong options at the top but the question is what we can find at the lower tier of salary in Starting Rotation 7.6! 

Starting Rotation 7.6 – Main Targets 

Jacob deGrom

DK still has not pitched him over $12,000. It doesn’t get much more plug-and-play than this. deGrom wasn’t even at his best early last game and still whiffed 14 hitters. He threw 93 pitches so there’s little fear about nagging injury and pitch count issues. deGrom also continued to use the slider as his primary pitch but when it’s getting a 62% whiff rate, you can’t argue. Milwaukee strikes out over 25% of the time and they face one of the best pitchers in the middle of a historic season. Don’t overthink this. 

Luis Castillo

To my eyes, I’d think the deGrom/Castillo pair winds up being the chalk duo and I’m not sure I want to make a strong argument against it. I’m not sweating the last start against the Padres and the month of June was so great for Castillo he may be underpriced here. In 31.2 IP through June, Castillo accumulated a 1.71 ERA, .231 wOBA, 25.6% K rate, a 0.98 WHIP, a 2.78 FIP, and a 3.37 xFIP. If Castillo had been doing this all season as we had expected, he’d likely be at least $1,000 more in this spot. He even upped his ground ball rate to 57.7% that month and that will help keep the Royals offense in check, at least in theory. 

The Royals offense really scuffled in June as well with the eighth-highest ground ball rate to righties at 45.1%. On top of all that, they ranked 22nd in OPS, 27th in ISO, 22nd in wOBA, and wRC+. They did only whiff 20.5% of the time but Castillo still has a whiff rate over 28% on his change and four-seam. The worst pitches for Castillo so far have been the four-seam and sinker, as they both have a wOBA over .355. With the Royals being in the bottom five against fastballs, we can see where the upside comes from with Castillo tonight. 

Merrill Kelly 

I think Kelly makes more sense on FD because his price went from $6,300 to $9,200 and that’s a massive jump. However, Kelly continues to mostly pitch well after a horrid start to the season, and the Rockies Road matchup is always interesting. It is just not an exaggeration to say that Colorado is the worst offense in the league when they go on the road and face righty pitching. They are 30th in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ all while striking out 27.6% of the time. I’m a little leery about the true upside of Kelly at this salary but he couldn’t be in a better spot tonight at the same time.
When we look at the profile for Kelly, I will admit that it can be a little tough to hone in on what he does extremely well. Taking the sinker out of the mix, all the other pitches have a whiff rate over 21% but nothing is over 28.7%. The K rate is just 21.4% but the xFIP is only 3.84 compared to the 4.67 ERA. Kelly does have a solid ground ball rate of 45.2% and to the surprise of absolutely nobody, the Rockies are 49.3% in ground ball rate in this split and they lead the league there as well. We talked about this last time out but Kelly totally turned his season around after the first month of the season. He’s not been over a 4.10 ERA, over a 3.77 xFIP, and the WHIP has decreased every month. We love Rocky Road (and ice cream in general but that’s another story) and Kelly needs to be on the radar tonight.

Ian Anderson

I wonder if the combo of Castillo potentially being popular and Fried getting smoked by the Pirates leaves Anderson under the radar a bit. I’m not exactly pounding the table for him, but we know he can produce 20+ DK point games and the salary is perfectly acceptable. Any pitcher that heavily features a fastball is of interest to me against the Buccos since they are the worst team in the league by a whole lot.

Anderson’s four-seam has scuffled this year with a .309 wOBA given upland just a 23.9% whiff rate. I do have some concerns about strikeout upside considering Anderson just whiffed exactly two hitters last time and the Pirates only strike out 22.5% to righty pitching. Still, Anderson does have both sides of the plate under a .290 wOBA and generates a 50.2% ground ball rate. There are plenty of worse ways to go tonight. 

Starting Rotation Special 

This play comes down to how much you value home/road splits and just the fact that this pitcher is pretty severely mispriced. Yes, he takes on an explosive offense and that is not an ideal spot and if he were $9,000 or more I wouldn’t look twice. Seeing him at $7,700 has my attention because he racked up 26 or more DK points in three of his past four starts before his last start. This offense only whiffs about 22% of the time and that’s not a ton but the Special has racked up 81 strikeouts on his change/four-seam combo this season. We also don’t want to take this too much into consideration, but the opposing offense has jumped to over 25% in K rate across the last 14 days. 

The special continues to dominate at home with a 2.01 ERA, .256 wOBA, 26.8% K rate, 0.97 WHIP, and a 3.98 xFIP. His ground ball rate shoots up to 54.7% and the fly ball rate drops to just 31.1% and all of these metrics are not just being weighed from the 53.2 IP sample of 2021. They’re mostly in line with a 185.1 IP sample at this point in his career and folks will see the opposition and run. That’s not exactly unfair and they can take down any pitcher but Pablo Lopez is just not expensive enough. 

Starting Rotation 7.6 Honorable Mention

Note – Chris Bassitt, Carlos Rodon, and Framber Valdez all could be in the mix I suppose but all three draw tougher matchups. For me, I don’t have a big need to try and pick on their opponents at the salary involved for each player. I’d have them ranked Valdez, Rodon, then Bassitt if you feel that’s a direction you want to go. 

Aaron Nola – If deGrom wasn’t on the slate, I’d be much heavier on Nola in this spot. He’s sporting a K rate of 29.4% overall and the Cubs have been one of the best offenses to target for strikeouts basically all season long. Spending over $21,000 on pitching is not always the most viable option however so it could make the builds difficult. I do think he’ll fly under the radar for the most part if folks look at the game logs but Nola didn’t quite deserve his score last time. The Philly bullpen allowed three runs after he departed that were charged to him. I just don’t have any reason to not go fully in on deGrom tonight. 

Jose Berrios – I’m never going to be a Berrios fan but he deserves at least a mention here. The White Sox lineup is depleted but they will also likely have five lefties in it and that’s been an issue for Berrios. He’s getting tagged by the left side for a .389 wOBA, 1.79 HR/9, and a 1.56 WHIP. His four-seam is really an issue with a .386 wOBA allowed and the White Sox are sixth against that pitch this season. 

Nathan Eovaldi – The K rate is a little low for a player of his salary at 22.1% but past Shohei Ohtani, the Angels offense isn’t the scariest. Just looking at his splits would lead you to think Eovaldi isn’t good against righty hitters at a .324 wOBA. However, his BABIP to that side is .352 and the xFIP to both sides is under 4.00. I considered making him the Special on the evening. 

Shohei Ohtani – I would assume folks will be gun-shy after Ohtani got worked over for -14 DK points in his last start. Boston doesn’t exactly scream bounce-back spot but they do whiff over 24% of the time. They are also top 10 in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and ISO against righty pitching. If the splits hold up, the lineup works for Ohtani. The Sox likely throw out seven righty hitters and Ohtani has that side of the plate down to a .265 wOBA with a 39.8% K rate. My fears also include walk issues but Boston does rank 28th in that category. You can always bet on a talent like Ohtani in this spot but he’s not a smash play as he’s been on past slates. 

Starting Rotation 7.6 Primary Stack 

This has to be the first time we’ve done this but with deGrom locked in for me, I need a cheap option. It just so happens that Jameson Taillon is pitching tonight in Seattle and he can’t get lefty hitters out. The Mariners should feature 5-6 lefties and this lineup could be the rocket ship to ride as a late-night hammer. Taillon uses the four-seam to lefties over 50% of the time and it has given up a .320 wOBA thus far and seven home runs. The curve is his main secondary pitch and that one gives up a .343 wOBA to go along with a 6.00 FIP and 2.59 HR/9 to lefties. 

Even though the Mariners do strike out a lot, they have some pop as well. Jake Fraley, Taylor Trammell, J.P. Crawford, and Kyle Seager all have at least a .306 wOBA or a .109 ISO. Fraley has mashed righties so far through 79 PA with a .322 ISO and a .446 wOBA. Seager and Crawford rank the best against the fastball and Trammell is minimum salary. Even Jake Bauers is in play with how much Taillon has struggled. Playing Seattle allows you to lock in deGrom and play whichever SP2 you’d like with salary left to play around with. 

Starting Rotation 7.6 Secondary Stacks 

• Blue Jays against Dean Kremer (may have to use the bottom of the lineup)
• Rangers against Jose Urena (lefties higher priority)
• Reds against Kris Bubic 
• Yankees against Justus Sheffield
• Padres against Patrick Corbin 
• Phillies against Jake Arrieta 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.6 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!