Starting Rotation 4.10
We’re back in action on this fantastic Saturday with 11 total games, split into five and six-game slates. There will be a quick notes section for the early slate because that slate is a little more cut and dry. I mean, Jacob deGrom is picking so we can already tell which direction we’re heading. The six-game slate is a bit more interesting so let’s run through it all in the Starting Rotation 4.10 and find the green screens!
Starting Rotation 4.10 – Early Slate
Cash Picks – Cash starts and ends with deGrom and there’s not much of a discussion. Last time out he only went six innings and threw under 80 pitches, yet racked up seven strikeouts and 24.5 DK points. Not only was his velocity up to 99 MPH on the fastball, he only threw that and the slider. He didn’t even need anything else in his arsenal. That’s a very scary thought.
The secondary pitcher for cash on DK looks to be Michael Pineda. He’s not a pitcher I love for cash but the quality dips sharply after deGrom on this slate. In the first outing, Pineda generated a 35.8% CSW, a 60% ground ball rate, and a .242 FIP. Seattle is over 28% in K rate to righty pitching so even with a couple of runs given up, Pineda has upside. It doesn’t hurt that Seattle is 22nd against the slider and 26th against the fastball, the main two pitches for Pineda.
Honorable Mention – I really don’t love anyone else for cash games.
GPP Picks – Carlos Martinez didn’t do much to warrant attention in the first start but this could be an interesting spot. I’m not going to hold it against Martinez that the Reds beat him up a bit and the Brewers….they are not the Reds. Milwaukee is whiffing at a top-four rate so far this year to RHP at 29.2%. They also match that with a bottom-six standing in OBP, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. I’m willing to continue to pick on the Brewers to some extent until they make me stop. I’m taking a stand (as much as you can for five games) and really honing in on these three pitchers. I don’t typically play lefty pitchers against the White Sox and Twins which leaves me not super interested in Yusei Kikuchi and Mike Minor.
Main Slate
Note – Tonight shapes up very similar to last night where I’m not 100% sure where the chalk goes writing the night before. I don’t see a lot of “safe” picks so let’s do it this way. I’m going to go over pitchers that I’m interested in and we’ll decide tomorrow how to divvy them up.
Ian Anderson ($8,900 DK/$8,600 FD)
First off, the pricing between DK and FD is way different tonight. Anderson is an exception as the price is pretty stagnant and I think he’s going to be my number one overall on this slate. It does fly in the face of my “pitchers against the same team twice is iffy” rule but there’s not much I can do about that. The walks are the main concern for him as through 37 IP in the majors, the walk rate is just over 10%. That’s truly not ideal but the K rate helps a lot at 30.4%. His CSW was at 33% in the first start, up 3% from 2020. The changeup is so important to him since it’s been his out pitch in the majors. He’s only allowed a .071 average and a .029 ISO on it thus far. Only one hitter has a FanGraphs rating of 1.0 or higher and it’s Didi Gregorius.
Anderson has been fairly even in his splits so far with a wOBA no higher than .252 and an average no higher than .186. He’s only given up two home runs and whiffs LHH at a 36.7% rate. Philly is only projected for three but the righties whiff at a 24.1% rate against Anderson thus far. We all know that Brian is a hater but when a pitcher has Anderson’s pedigree as a high-end prospect and has generated a 53.3% ground ball rate to go with a 25% hard-hit rate, I’m in.
Jordan Lyles ($6,000 DK)
Lyles is a great example of the different pricing as he’s aggressively priced on FD but on DK, he’s very cheap. Now, I might well be misreading the situation but I feel like Lyles could pick up steam as the SP2 of choice in cash. He went almost six full innings last start even though he was supposed to be an opener. Lyles is far from the pitcher I’d use in cash on most nights but $6,000 could point us in that direction.
Since the Padres lost Fernando Tatis, they haven’t done a lot offensively. It’s only been three games but they’ve generated three, two, and three runs since. Lyles had the good stuff working in his first start with a 32.9% CSW and his strikeouts were evenly spread through his three main pitches. I certainly don’t expect Lyles to maintain a 34.8% K rate like the first start. I mean, his career rate is 17.2%. Still, we don’t get pitchers at this salary that we can actually make a case for. San Diego is 30th in K rate to RHP so far at just 18.8% but I don’t need 7-8 whiffs at this salary.
Julio Urias ($9,500 DK/$10,000 FD)
I typically will not give lefties against the Nationals much of a look, but Urias has to be discussed tonight. It’s kind of funny that he’s still only 24 even though it feels like he’s been pitching for about six years. Coors Field can be a tough place for pitchers but Urias just went seven and whiffed six hitters in his first start. The CSW sat at 34.2% which is excellent and his changeup did most of the damage with four of the six strikeouts. It’s interesting to note that his changeup velocity was up about 2 MPH so perhaps that made a difference. The Rockies only made hard contact 11% of the time in the first start as well.
Washington is already 16th in plate appearances against lefties and displaying why they can be a dangerous lineup. The .417 wOBA as a team is second only to Houston, as is the .958 OPS. They’re also ninth in walk rate already but they are whiffing 27.7% of the time which is the seventh-most among teams with 50 or more plate appearances. This is a really interesting spot. If Urias is going to break out this year, getting through lineups like this could be the key. I’m not paying top dollar in cash unless the projected chalkiness is overwhelming, but GPP is interesting.
Jeff Hoffman ($6,900 DK/$7,700 FD)
I’m really hesitant to put a lot of faith into Hoffman based on one start. He was excellent last time out, striking out six hitters across five innings. The CSW was 29.9% which would be a career-high ratio and he allowed hard contact under 28% of the time. It has to be noted that he started throwing a slider, which he hasn’t done regularly since 2018. Folks might look at the 9.28 ERA last season but A. it was across just 21.1 IP out of the bullpen and B. Hoffman has a 4.86 ERA career outside of Coors Field. Certainly, that’s not great or anything but the 7.36 in Coors drives some of his stats.
We’ve been talking about it the past couple of days but Arizona continues to be a weaker offense without Ketel Marte. They did score five last night but that was against a bullpen that had to take over in the fifth inning. The fact that they are dead last to the slider catches my eye as well. This isn’t to say Hoffman is safe (he is NOT), but a new team may give him a new lease on his pitching outlook. He’s still under $7,000 and deserves a look, at least. Just understand I feel he’s the riskiest pitcher we’ll discuss.
Steven Matz ($8,700 DK/$9,200 FD)
I deliberately saved Matz for last in Starting Rotation 4.10 because I’m betting I’m going to be on a limb here for the most part. I’m not going to sit here and pound the table and say Matz is going to smash the Angels and he’s the best play of the slate. What I am going to say is I think the Angels may be a little bit overrated against lefty pitching. Let’s just take a look at the qualified hitters last season against LHP –
So obviously Matz has to deal with Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure that out. I’m not super concerned with David Fletcher’s .145 ISO and Justin Upton features a 32.4% K rate. After that, Shohei Ohtani and Jared Walsh are lefty hitters. Matz has a career 0.71 HR/9 to the left side of the plate and just a .264 average. Ohtani’s wOBA was under .300 against lefties last year as it was.
Matz had his velocity up and the CSW was at 33%. It’s not hard to see why when he was throwing pitches like this –
That changeup was just falling right off the table to go along with 95-96 MPH gas. He was also using the changeup more than ever before so his approach is slightly different as well. If the Angels project to be chalky again, playing Matz could be some really fun leverage and a risk/reward pick for GPP.
Gas Can of the Slate – I’m really liking the Blue Jays tonight… I kid, I kid. I mean I am sort of interested but they have been tough to peg down in the early going. Instead, I’ll focus elsewhere. It’s possible that Chris Paddack for the Padres just isn’t that good and I’m pretty interested in Texas bats tonight. He’s always been worse on the road and his HR/9 to LHH away from San Diego is 2.09. The K rate also dips below 20% and the middle of the order looks awfully appealing. David Dahl is likely back in the lineup after an illness, Nate Lowe is sporting a .953 OPS already and Joey Gallo is hitting above .270. These three hitters are three of the top four changeup hitters on the Rangers and Paddack gave up 11 homers on the fastball last year. They are super cheap and affords you some big bats like J.D. Martinez against a lefty or possibly some Dodgers righties.
Secondary Targets – Possibly Jonah Heim, we’ll need the lineup
Starting Rotation 4.10 Betting Section
Free Bet
Record – 6-3
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