MLB DFS GPP

Starting Rotation 8.5

We have another split slate today with smaller slates in both the afternoon and evening. Regardless of slate, the pitching options are not really great. Since they’re about even in terms of games, we’re going to be going over both slates so let’s dig into the Starting Rotation 8.5! 

Starting Rotation 8.5 – Early 

Aaron Nola – His popularity is going to be sky-high since he’s clearly the most talented pitcher on the slate. On paper, playing him makes all the sense in the world. The Washington lineup is severely hampered but they have been feisty in spots we haven’t expected since the Trade Deadline. Nola sports a 28.8% K rate and the four-seam and curve have done the most strikeout damage with 94. His four-seam has been an issue at the same time with a .365 wOBA and just a 22.8% whiff rate. Juan Soto is the best fastball hitter on the team and sits seventh in the league. That’s a concern for Nola since the lefties have a .316 wOBA against him. His road numbers have also been poor this year across 64.2 IP with a 5.29 ERA and the FIP and xFIP are both much higher as well. The difficult part is on this short of a slate, we may not like a whole lot else. 

Alex Wood – I’m super interested to see what the field does with him today. He’s seen some regression that he was due since the start of June but July leveled out so his 3.83 ERA pretty much matches the FIP and xFIP. The K rate was also over 26% in July compared to 25.2% on the season so I feel comfortable with the current form, for the most part. It’s also interesting to see that Arizona is a tougher matchup for lefty pitching. They are top 12 in all of our offensive categories but in two starts, Wood has racked up 11 IP, 15 K’s, 4 ER, and eight total hits. What could help explain that is Arizona sits 26th against the slider and that has been the money pitch for Wood. He’s racked up 66 strikeouts, a .237 wOBA, and a 39.3% whiff rate. Wood throws it 31.7% of the time so he has to be in play on this slate. 

Spencer Howard – Let’s walk on the wild side in the first start for Howard as a Texas Ranger. Lifted from the Phillies at the Deadline, Howard does have some pedigree and former potential. Things never took off in Philly but there is reason to hope. For one, Howard has a K rate over 32% in the minors this season and it sits at 24.4% through 28.1 IP in the majors. I don’t love the fact he’s been using the four-seam 69% of the time but it does have 17 strikeouts with the .353 wOBA. He’s induced an 11.2% swinging-strike rate in Philly this year and 12.2% in the minors. While he does have issues against righty hitters at a .374 wOBA this year, the Angels lineup is not imposing. Since the start of July, LA sits 27th in ISO, 23rd in OPS, 21st in OBP, 24th in wOBA, and 22nd in wRC+. They have only whiffed 22.6% of the time in that span but at Howard’s price, you don’t need a lot of strikeouts. Just get me five quality innings and we’ll call it square. 

Starting Rotation 8.5 Early Honorable Mention 

Merrill Kelly – I’m not sure if I need to go here, but Kelly is at least on the board. San Fran is a very good offense, but they also strike out the second-highest rate to righty pitching. He’s better to lefties at a .266 wOBA and he uses the changeup a lot to that side of the plate. It hasn’t registered a ton of strikeouts but it does have the highest whiff rate of any pitch in the mix. Only two of the top six hitters against the change hit from the left side of the plate for the Giants. The arrival of Kris Bryant has balanced the lineup a bit more, so let’s see what the Giants run out there on a getaway day. 

Starting Rotation 8.5 Early Stacks

This is a rare spot that I might somewhat cast aside the pitch date. The Colorado Rockies don’t look especially great against the sinker, which makes up the majority of the pitch mix for Jake Arrieta. He’s getting mauled this year with a 6.20 ERA and a 5.96 FIP while both sides of the plater are right around a .377 wOBA. He’s not striking many hitters out as he sits under 20% and the one player I want a piece of is Trevor Story. I’ve been skittish with him because he was not happy the Rockies didn’t trade him at the deadline but he rates as the best hitter against righty sinkers with a .283 ISO and a .445 wOBA. From there, we can use Sam Hilliard and his .286 ISO, C.J. Cron and his .408 wOBA in Coors, and Garrett Hampson at a .369 wOBA. Really, any player is on my radar from the Rockies lineup against Arrieta. 

In July, Tarik Skubal started to revert back to the home run prone pitcher with a 2.93 HR/9 and the K rate dropped to 20%. That is decidedly NOT what you want when the Red Sox are coming into town and J.D. Martinez, Kike Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, and Xander Bogaerts all sit over a .315 wOBA and a .170 ISO against lefties. All of these hitters are well over a .220 ISO against fastballs and Skubal is using that almost half the time with a .321 ISO and a 41% hard-hit rate. You can interchange Xander and Story at shortstop and build out from there. 

• Rangers against Dylan Bundy 
• Cubs against Antonio Senzatela 

Starting Rotation 8.5 – Evening 

Sonny Gray – My goodness this slate is gross for pitching. Gray wouldn’t even be that high for me on a normal slate but on this one, I think he might be popular. If we can find other options we like and he’s heavy chalk, maybe we can find pivots. Now, in fairness to Gray, he’s had some poor results with a 4.26 ERA compared to a 3.32 xFIP and 3.82 FIP. Perhaps that starts to equalize with the Buccos ranking last in ISO against righty pitching. The .340 BABIP is easily the highest of his career and the highest since 2018 on top of that. 

There is still a lot to like for Gray based on the metrics like his 29.7% hard-hit rate, 29% K rate, and an 11% swinging-strike rate. The other good news for Gray is the righties in the Pirates lineup are not fearsome. Righty hitters have gotten to Gray for a .367 wOBA and a 4.77 FIP. The flip side is lefties only have a 2.73 xFIP, 33.1% K rate, and a .284 wOBA. He’s going to be overwhelming chalk in cash, but I’m unsure in GPP if I’ll go with the field yet. 

Framber Valdez – I don’t love the K-BB% for Valdez at just 10.7%. The K rate is low at 21.5% and the walk rate is high on top of that at 10.7% so I do prefer Gray even as what I expect will be a chalkier option. Valdez does sport a 10.2% swinging-strike rate which isn’t poor and the Twins don’t look that great against lefty sinkers. That’s the main pitch for Valdez at 49.5% but the strikeout pitch is the curveball. Minnesota ranks 20th against it and it has 50 of 66 strikeouts with a .162 wOBA and a 41.6% whiff rate. There should be three lefties in the Twins lineup and that helps as Valdez has a 2.91 xFIP and the 29.7% K rate. Righties do have a 3.76 xFIP and a wOBA over .300, but the options are limited here. I do like Gray slightly better with slightly less investment. 

Nestor Cortes – The glorious mustache is back on the mound tonight, fresh off a start that lasted five innings. I would expect he will get pushed towards that if not further now that the Yankees are down Cole and Jordan Montgomery on the Covid list. They need innings and Cortes has been strong in his 32.2 IP this year. The FIP is 2.18 and the ERA is 1.93 while the K rate is 30.5%. He does have some fly-ball tendencies at 42.9% but the hard-hit rate is just 28.2%. Cortes uses his four-seam around 44% of the time and it has 24 of 39 strikeouts so far. Seattle sitting at 27th against fastballs is nice and they whiff at 27% against lefties. Righty hitters only have a .208 wOBA and lefty hitters have a 2.65 xFIP against Cortes. Too many factors line up for him to not like him on this slate. 

Starting Rotation 8.5 Evening Stacks

We went to Cincinnati yesterday during the day and I’m heading right back there today. Wil Crowe takes the mound tonight and he has a 5.11 xFIP against lefty hitters along with a 4.62 mark against righties. Both the fly-ball rate and hard-hit rate are over 32% and that will likely not end well in Great American Small Park. One of the chalky parts of the stack could be Nicholas Castellanos. He could be back from the IL tonight and has crushed righties with a .415 wOBA and .256 ISO. He’s only $3,700 and the field likely flocks there. We can build out the stack with Joey Votto, Jonathan India, and Jesse Winker as main targets. They all rate well against the fastball and have at least a .358 wOBA and a .234 ISO against the fastball, which is the main pitch for Crowe. 

I’m likely going with mini stacks from there because if we use a Gray/Cortes combo our salary could be limited. We can utilize some cheap White Sox hitters like Andrew Vaughn and Seby Zavala against Daniel Lynch. He had an xFIP over 6.00 in his last start and Zavala is at a .318 wOBA with a walk rate over 30% while Vaughn crushes lefties with a .442 wOBA and .322 ISO. We just need two more spots to fill from the other stacks listed. 

• Yankees against Tyler Anderson 
• Blue Jays against Triston McKenzie 
• White Sox against Daniel Lynch
• Astros against Griffin Jax 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 8.5 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 8.4

We do have somewhat of a split day in MLB today as there is a four-game slate in the afternoon and then an 11 game slate in the evening. We’re going to focus solely on the 11 games in the article and then we can chat about the four gamer in Discord. The 11 game slate doesn’t appear to have many value options but let’s get down to business in the Starting Rotation 8.4 to carve our path to green screens! 

Starting Rotation 8.4 – Main Targets 

Lucas Giolito 

My initial lean is to not pay up for Giolito, but we have to talk about him. He just faced this Royals offense and scored 22 DK points which would be fine at this price point but not great. Giolito has been a bear to peg correctly this year and Kansas City doesn’t strike out a ton, which limits the upside a bit. They are only at 22.2% this year which is the sixth-lowest in the league. KC also ranks 23rd against the fastball and 17th against the changeup which is about 80% of the arsenal for Giolito. The four-seam has struggled the most with a .325 wOBA allowed but it should help that Jorge Soler was the third-best fastball hitter in the KC lineup. 

It’s just been a weird year for Giolito. He’s sporting a K rate over 28% and the only pitcher that has a higher swinging-strike rate than his 15.1% mark is Max Scherzer. You would think that would to some stability but that just hasn’t been the case. His K rate is close to each side and even though the wOBA is higher against righty hitters at .316, the xFIP is almost the exact same around 3.80. Giolito is fine but I don’t see him as a must-have in any format. 

Jameson Taillon 

I’ll be the first one to say that the price is scary but I wonder if that sours the field on him. He did just win AL Pitcher of the Month and he really earned it. Through 31 IP in that month, the ERA was 1.16, the K rate was 20.5%, and the WHIP was 0.97. Now, the K rate isn’t spectacular and the xFIP was a frightening 5.14. If this was a different matchup, I could be arguing the other way but Taillon draws a Baltimore offense that has struggled mightily against righty pitching this year. The K rate is 24.6% to go along with the 29th OPS, 30th wOBA, and 28th wRC+. Additionally, they are bottom-five against the fastball and that’s been a key for Taillon in this great run. 

To wit, that pitch garnered a positive FanGraphs rating in every start in July except for one that was rated -0.2. Taillon has also seen his best results against righty hitters, which should occupy seven of nine slots in the batting order. His walk rate is just 4% with a 4.24 xFIP and a 27.5% hard-hit rate. It’s going to be interesting to see what the field does with him, especially with the next two pitchers on our list. 

Shohei Ohtani

It’s hard not to love Ohtani tonight as he brings a 30.1% K rate to the mound and he’s cut his walk rate down to under 11%. Texas is 17th in walk rate against righties and that likely will get worse with Joey Gallo in New York. They are also top 12 in K rate at 24.6% which sets up well for Ohtani. His swinging-strike rate of 13.7% would be ninth if he qualified and his splitter continues to be the destroyer of worlds. It still has a 53.9% whiff rate and a .112 wOBA against it through 32 BBE. The new Texas lineup could really line up perfectly for him as well because they are projected for eight righties. Ohtani’s strength is against righties with a 36.2% K rate, a 0.23 HR/9, and a .232 wOBA. He does feature the slider a bit more to righties than the splitter but that pitch has a 37% whiff rate and Texas is 22nd against that pitch. All in all, I think Ohtani will wind up being my favorite pitcher on the night. 

Max Scherzer 

Let’s start out by discussing the fact this is not the easiest matchup on paper. Houston is the only team in baseball with a K rate under 20% against righty pitching. Just on that facet, it’s not a spot that screams upside. They are also first in wRC+, second in OPS and wOBA, and seventh in ISO. Normally this is a team that we run away from but Mad Max is debuting in Dodger Stadium at $9,100. Maybe he winds up not being a cash play. Maybe we just need some exposure in GPP but this salary is insane, regardless of matchup. He doesn’t have to face the DH and I mentioned earlier that he leads the league in the swinging-strike rate at over 16%. The K rate overall is 34.3% and LA should help his fly ball tendencies as well. 

The loss of the DH is really a big deal because that will likely take Yordan Alvarez out of the lineup if Houston plays their normal one. That leaves them righty-heavy and that means a steady diet of the four-seam/slider combo from Scherzer. They have combined for 99 strikeouts so far and the slider has a .198 wOBA against it. Both pitches have a whiff rate over 34% as well, which helps explain why the K rate to that side is over 35% and the xFIP is 2.98. I won’t say I’m all on Max but the matchup is better than it might appear to be with no DH and I will absolutely be playing him tonight. 

Matt Harvey 

Harvey has looked a lot more like this in his past three starts –

This one is risky and that should go without saying. Still, Harvey has scored at least 18 DK in his last three starts and there have been some subtle changes in the pitch mix. He’s started to utilize the curve and change about 5% more each so they are around 17-19% in these past three starts. His curve hasn’t gotten great results but it does have the highest whiff rate of any pitch at 31.6%. His changeup has a .201 wOBA which is the lowest of any pitch as well. That has helped the four-seam play better and he has a positive FanGraphs rating in the past three starts on all three pitches. The seasonal data points to him being worse to righties in wOBA at .376 but that’s in part due to a .377 BABIP. The xFIP is only 4.17 and the Yankees whiff over 25% of the time against righties. I get the lineup is different now but they are 25th in ISO, 20th in wOBA, and 18th in wRC+. We did just see Jorge Lopez control this lineup and it’s not out of the realm to see Harvey do it as well. 

Starting Rotation 8.4 Honorable Mention 

Kevin Gausman – The Regression Monster has come for Gausman a little bit in these past couple of starts but this could be a good bounce-back spot. He hasn’t got out of the fourth inning in the past three starts and has given up 11 total earned runs. Still, the K rate is 30% and the D-Backs don’t have the most imposing offense. In the last start against them, Gausman racked up 27 DK points but I do prefer Ohtani for sure and likely Scherzer as well. 

Carlos Carrasco – Another pitcher that I’m fascinated to see what happens to tonight. The past two nights, Mets pitchers have been chalky and haven’t pitched exceptionally well. Carrasco is rolling into his second start of the year and could likely go up to 75-80 pitches. In the first game, he whiffed 25% of the hitters he faced but also had a 5.16 FIP. I tend to think he’s pricey and if he’s chalky as well, I’d be comfortable fading. 

Starting Rotation 8.4 Stacks 

We’re running it back tonight as the braves face another pitiful lefty in J.A. Happ after they walloped Jon Lester last night. Happ has gotten taken to the woodshed against righties with a .397 wOBA, 2.22 HR/9, and a 5.49 xFIP. His fastball and cutter both give up over a .235 ISO and a .354 wOBA. Jorge Soler, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, and Adam Duvall all hammer fastballs. They are all over a .205 ISO and a .390 wOBA against that pitch. Adam Riley is a stud against the cutter with a .308 ISO (and all the other players rate well too) and this lineup is set to smash. 

Not only can we afford a pitching combo of two pitchers over $9,000 each, but we can still stack up some Coors Field hitters. Alec Mills will pitch for the Cubs and he only has a K rate of 16.8%. While he is a ground ball pitcher at 55.4%, that’s not something I’m fearful of in Coors. He’s struggled against lefties with a .364 wOBA and an xFIP over 5.00. In Coors this season, all of Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon, and Raimel Tapia have wOBA’s over .325 and ISO’s over .360. Even C.J. Cron is a strong play with a .400 wOBA and a .312 ISO, even though he’s on the right side of the plate. All of these hitters are super cheap for the opponent and venue. 

• Blue Jays against J.C. Mejia 
• White Sox against Carlos Hernandez 
• Angels against Kolby Allard 
• Tigers against Eduardo Rodriguez
• Red Sox against Casey Mize 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 8.4 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 8.3

We have all 30 teams in action tonight and we finally have some good pitching options to choose from! These slates have been very far and few between lately but we can have some quality tonight. We also have to deal with Coors Field and a depleted Cubs lineup which complicates things a bit in the Starting Rotation 8.3 so let’s get busy! 

Starting Rotation 8.3 – Main Targets 

Gerrit Cole 

Cole had a bizarre outing the last time. It’s not often a pitcher gives up seven earned runs and still scores 13.2 DK points but that’s exactly what Cole did. He struck out 10 Rays hitters and he gets a far better spot for his ability this time around. I don’t really expect 13 strikeouts across seven innings like his first start against the Orioles since Cole has been far iffier since the crackdown on the sticky stuff. He’s still generating a 34.4% K rate with a 14.6% swinging-strike rate on the season which sits seventh in the league. 

His four-seam leads the way with 73 strikeouts and Baltimore sits 27th against that pitch, not to mention they are 10th in K rate against righty pitching period. Cole has also been better against righty hitting with just a .232 wOBA, 3.05 xFIP, and a 47.5% ground ball rate. He does see the K rate split significantly as righties are at 30.1% and lefties are at 39.2%. All in all, Baltimore is in a way worse spot tonight compared to their home run derby against Andrew Heaney last night.

Well. That’s not happening. As of Monday night, we don’t have an announced starter for the Yankees. That’s going to push more of the field to Wheeler I assume but we’ll have to see. 

Zack Wheeler 

I’m hoping that folks back off Wheeler based on the last game against the Nationals, but I don’t expect it (especially now). He’s pitched too well this season to be passed over but it will be interesting to see how Wheeler and Cole shake out for projected popularity. The Nationals lineup resembles a AAA lineup at this point with Juan Soto being borderline the only threat. Gone are Trea Turner, Josh Harrison, Kyle Schwarber, Yan Gomes, and even Starlin Castro. If you take all those hitters away, Washington is only about 20th against the fastball. His four-seam has 70 strikeouts on the season and a 25.7% whiff rate and his slider only has a .233 wOBA against it. 

Wheeler will face a balanced lineup in all likelihood with four righties and four lefties but that hasn’t mattered much. The wOBA to lefties is .254 and righties have only managed a .257 mark. His K rate is above 28.4% to each side as well so there’s not a particular weakness based on the splits. I love Wheeler in a bounce-back spot here this evening. 

Yusei Kikuchi 

The results have been uneven for the lefty lately but this is a fantastic spot. We’ve hammered any quality lefty against the Rays all season long. They sit 22nd or worse in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, ISO, slugging, OBP, and they strike out 27.1% of the time. Not only does Kikuchi have all that going for him, but his strikeout pitch has also been the slider with 41 on the season. That and the changeup also boast a whiff rate over 35% on the season while Kikuchi is flirting with a 27% K rate. He’s also sporting a ground ball rate over 50% to combat the 39.2% fly-ball rate for the Rays. 

Tampa could also throw out three lefties and that would help Kikuchi a lot. His K rate to that side of the plate is 34.4% with an xFIP of 2.23. Even against righties, the xFIP is 3.73 and they whiff almost 25% of the time. The price is slightly elevated but with the matchup at hand, there’s not a big reason not to utilize him. 

Kenta Maeda 

I don’t think this is the greatest spot for him but I think he could be a little chalky. The Reds whiff under 23% of the time and it’s not the best ballpark considering he has a 35.5% fly-ball rate. Now, the good news is Maeda has been pitching as we all assumed since the start of July. In his 29.1 IP, he had a 2.15 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, .231 wOBA, and a 33% K rate. Those metrics would be insanely valuable at his salary. It’s more of a matter of if he can do it in this park against this offense. 

His splitter and slider both have a whiff rate over 31.5% of the time even with the struggles he’s had in the early part of the season. The lineup is split evenly between righties and lefties so there’s no real advantage there but Maeda doesn’t have to face a DH, which helps. At a guess on Monday night, I bet the Wheeler/Maeda combo is the cash duo for the field. 

Adrian Houser 

This may seem like an oddball play since the strikeout is king and Houser doesn’t have that capability. He is facing the Pirates for the third time in six starts, which is a small concern but the first two starts resulted in 23 and 17 DK points. If he qualified, he would lead the majors in ground ball rate by around 5% at 59.9%. The Pirates simply don’t whiff a lot but they are 11th in ground ball rate themselves. A big issue on this slate is I’m not sure how comfortable I am dipping below this threshold. He’s only a salary saver and if the field flocks to Maeda, he could make a very interesting pivot. There is really not a lot to talk about here. You’re playing him with the salary involved and hoping he grounds the Pirates offense with 3-4 strikeouts.

Starting Rotation 8.3 Honorable Mention 

Note – With the loss of Cole on this slate, one of the pitchers we talk about here is likely going to turn into a main target. I want to see where the field goes to figure out who the cash option would be and who would be a nice pivot in GPP. 

Walker Buehler – Houston does sit just 13th against the fastball and Buehler relies on it heavily but this isn’t the spot for me. Houston is dead last in K rate against righties at 19.8%. Buehler has been on a roll in the last four starts with at least 28 DK points, but the price is just a hair too high for the matchup in my eyes. 

Sean Manaea – I’m not always a fan of pitchers against the same offense twice in a row but Manaea has been lights out the past two games with 22 strikeouts over 13 innings. The Padres are missing Fernando Tatis which is a serious downgrade to that offense. His K rate is over 27% on the season and while the Padres don’t strike out a ton, they are right around 23%. I like other pitchers better but I’m not sure I can mount a strong argument against it if you want to play him. 

Hyun Jin Ryu – I prefer Kikuchi for just $100 more but Ryu faces Cleveland who sits in the bottom-five in wOBA and wRC+ against lefties on the year. His K rate is just 20% which is a big reason why I prefer Kikuchi and his swinging-strike rate is the lowest it’s been since 2014. 

Kyle Freeland – This is pretty much just an MME style play because I think the Cubs could come in popular. They are not overly expensive for a Coors Field offense and Freeland had a fairly strong July. The ERA was only 2.40, the wOBA was .292, and the HR/9 came down to 0.60. He started to use the four-seam a lot more around 45% and that has been the best pitch results-wise. 

Starting Rotation 8.3 Stacking Options 

Brian is once again missing one of his favorites as Jon Lester takes the mound and the Atlanta stack against him is super affordable. We can start with the newest players in Jorge “Free Square” Soler has a .357 wOBA and .276 ISO on the season while Adam Duvall sports a .212 ISO. He has struck out a TON at 363% against lefties but that shouldn’t be an issue against Lester. Both players are easy to fit even with expensive pitching and that’s not even counting someone like Ozzie Albies, who should be a core play in any build. He’s racked up a .275 ISO and .402 wOBA against lefties and he and Dansby Swanson have hit the four-seam/cutter combo the best on the team. Those pitches make up over 60% of Lester’s arsenal on the season and both have given up a wOBA over .420. Righties in general have a .395 wOBA, 5.44 xFIP, 6.19 FIP, and a 2.09 HR/9 against him so a hitter like Austin Riley is in a prime spot as well. 

On a slate this size, I will typically max out at no more than four hitters from a team, and usually, I keep it at three. With that in mind, I’m going right back to the Giants tonight as they smash lefties and they face Madison Bumgarner. MadBum hasn’t been totally atrocious but the 42.3% hard-hit rate and the 47.4% fly-ball rate to righties seem like something that will bite him here. Buster Posey, Darin Ruf, and Austin Slater all stand out. Posey and Ruf are both over a .425 wOBA and .215 ISO this season while Slater sits at a .351 wOBA. They are all in the positives against the cutter (Slater is tops on the team) and that pitch is giving up a .359 wOBA from Bumgarner. Of course, Kris Bryant is in play as well. 

• Yankees against Alexander Wells 
• Angels against Jordan Lyles 
• White Sox against Kris Bubic 
• Phillies against Patrick Corbin (pending lineups)
• Rockies against Zach Davies 
• Mariners against Luis Patino (lefties only)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 8.3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 8.2

Welcome into the Monday slate and I’ll be honest – there are not going to be a ton of options. If your initial reaction looks like this, I can’t say I blame you. 

We only have seven games and we may struggle to find even five options that we really think can pitch well. Even by the recent standards, the Starting Rotation 8.2 is going to be a challenge but we’re up for it to find the green screens! 

Starting Rotation 8.2 – Main Targets 

Note – As of this writing, the Angels have not announced their starting pitcher. It could be Shohei Ohtani, which would be a very chalky option if he’s available. Let’s pretend Ohtani will not pitch until Tuesday and we can update is Discord if we have to. 

Tylor Megill

If you would have mentioned to me two months ago I would have been thinking about paying $9,600 for Tylor Megill, I would have responded with a hearty “Who in the world is Tylor Megill??”. Well, here we are and here I am at least considering it. Do I think Megill is actually worth the salary? That’s a stretch but he has shown strikeout ability through 35.1 IP with a 27.1% rate. The swinging-strike rate of 11% is strong as well and three of his four pitches have a whiff rate over 28%. The FIP/xFIP of 3.44/3.89 are a good bit apart from the 2.04 ERA but it’s not like the former combo is poor. 

The splits are far from something we can put in stone, but the early returns would suggest that the Marlins lineup helps Megill. He gets five righties in a normal Miami lineup and has held them to a .209 wOBA, 3.09 xFIP, and whiffs them at a 29.3% rate. The Marlins are also consistently in the bottom 10 of our offensive categories with a K rate over 25%. I want to see exactly how chalky he is before making the final decision. 

Anthony DeSclafani 

Tony Disco has one thing going for him that Megill doesn’t and that’s an actual track record to fall back on. In his two starts against Arizona, he’s racked up 13.2 IP, 12 K’s, and just three earned runs. That would certainly play on this slate and he has turned to the slider/four-seam combo as his main two pitches. Not only do they both possess a whiff rate over 25.5% but the D-Backs are 23rd or worse against both pitches. The K rate for DeSclafani is only 23.3%, which isn’t special but it’s not the worst either. Arizona should help in that facet as well with a K rate over 24%, the 12th highest in the league. It should be a lefty-heavy lineup but DeSclafani has a .277 wOBA to that side and a 3.68 xFIP, which is better than the 4.19 mark to righties. I believe DeSclafani will be my favorite on the slate as of now. 

Josiah Gray 

If you haven’t read this article most of the year, welcome in. If you have, you all know I have a weakness for talented young pitchers and the upside they present. Gray is inside the top 50 prospects in baseball, depending on where you read. He’s also had some poor results so far in eight innings with a 6.75 ERA and an 8.28 FIP. So what in the world is he doing here? Let’s discuss. 

First off, the xFIP is just 3.79 and it highlights the absurd 44.4% HR/FB rate thus far. I have to stress it’s only eight innings but the K rate has been 37.1% and the swinging-strike rate is 20%. He’s given up almost an earned run per inning and he’s still scored 12 DK points in both starts. Every pitch has a whiff rate over 35.1% so while there is a risk, there is some serious upside here as well. Philly has a 23.7% K rate on the season and his xFIP is better to righties, as is the K rate. Philly is projected to put out six righties and is no better than 16th against any pitch on the season. 

Starting Rotation 8.2 Honorable Mention 

Andrew Heaney – I will mention him but I can’t see myself playing him tonight. It’s the first start for him in Yankee Stadium and that may not end well for a pitcher that has a 1.53 HR/9 on the year. Baltimore is far better against lefties on top of that at seventh in OPS and wRC+ to go along with 10th in wOBA. The xFIP to righties actually looks pretty solid at 3.51 but the 43.4% fly-ball rate and a hard-hit rate over 35% is scary. 

Starting Rotation 8.2 Stacks 

Brian is somewhere in the Great White North, fending off penguins and seals so that means someone has to take up the mantle of writing up the Rays. It’s my turn to keep the seat warm because I love them tonight. Chris Flexen has not had the best time away from Seattle so far and the largest key is he has not shown a lot of strikeout ability at 15.5%. That has been the Achilles heel for Tampa as they sit inside the top 10 in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. They’re an elite offense with a high K rate of almost 26%. If Flexen can’t miss bats, he should get mauled. 

Someone needs to explain to me the pricing on Austin Meadows. The seasonal data includes a .389 wOBA, and a .320 ISO. In his past 10 games, he’s averaged almost 10 DK points per game but he’s still only $4,500. Flexen uses the four-seam/cutter mix almost 55% of the time and Meadows has a wOBA over .380 and ISO over .210 against those pitches. Ji-Man Choi destroys the cutter with a .520 ISO and he’s sitting over a .400 wOBA on the year against righties. Brandon Lowe is expensive but also does his damage against fastball-style pitches and don’t look now, but Wander Franco is awake as well. He’s hitting .350 over the past 10 with an OPS closing in on almost .900. 

If you’re going with a Megill/Desclafani pitching duo, we need salary savers with the Tampa stack and I’m looking towards Baltimore. My favorite two are Pedro Severino and Austin Hays, with the Baltimore catcher really standing out. Heaney uses the fastball 54% against righties with a 47% hard-hit rate and a .249 ISO, easily the worst of any pitch. He’s given up 16 total home runs and 11 have come from the fastball. It just so happens that those Orioles hitters both have an ISO over .295 and a wOBA over .355 against that pitch. If you wanted to go with a 3/3 approach, Trey Mancini could take the place of Choi from Tampa since he also destroys the fastball with a .483. ISO. 

• Yankees against Jorge Lopez
• Mets against Jesus Luzardo 
• Giants against Taylor Widener 
• Brewers Bryse Wilson 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 8.2 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 8.1

It’s Sunday and we have 10 games in front of us and the pitching side of things remains mysterious in this part of the season. We had all sorts of oddball performances once again, including Yu Darvish striking out eight but giving up home runs left and right (by his standards). This slate doesn’t have the traditional “ace” so it will be another challenge to figure out in the Starting Rotation 8.1!

Starting Rotation 8.1 Main Targets 

Sandy Alcantara 

If this was before the Trade Deadline (and he was a little cheaper), I would love this spot for Alcantara. Seeing as how the Yankees should have at least two lefties in the lineup with newcomers Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo, the spot turns a bit more dangerous. Still, the Yanks are in Miami so they lose the DH option and Alcantara follows the path of other Miami pitchers who are better at home. The wOBA is .255 in Miami compared to .312 on the road and the IP are almost dead even. The K rate is not spectacular overall under 21% but the Yanks are still going to strike out a bunch. Alcantara is also better against righty hitters with a .232 wOBA at home and just a 3.00 xFIP. What I really love is the changeup has been the best strikeout weapon for Alcantara with 42 on the year and a 29.4% whiff rate. New York sits 28th against that pitch his year and over a 25% K rate as a team. 

Jose Berrios 

I’m very rarely on Berrios and you never know what the outcome will be in this scenario. The Jays badly needed starting pitching and paid a premium to get it. Berrios is a very capable pitcher but we know he can be inconsistent. The Royals are 19th against the curveball and that is the primary pitch for Berrios, generating 60 strikeouts and a 35.5% whiff rate. Kansas City is only striking out at 22% of the time against righties but they also sit under 20th in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Here is where the rubber is going to meet the road – the five lefties in this lineup. 

In the year, Berrios has a pretty poor .350 wOBA against lefties to go with a 4.50 FIP. Berrios is slated to face five lefties but they are not very good, to be frank. No lefty in the Royals lineup has a wOBA over .316 nor an ISO over .170 for Carlos Santana. The strikeout upside isn’t spectacular on paper, but with the pricing of other pitchers above him, I like Berrios more than normal today. 

Jordan Montgomery 

He was a little bit wild in the last start but managed to not give up any earned runs and scored 20 DK. He did pick up the win which was a nice bump but even still, Montgomery has flashed higher ceiling and this spot is an excellent one on paper. Miami leads the league in K rate to lefty pitching at 27.9% and is 28th in every single one of our offensive categories. That was with Adam Duvall and Starling Marte being Marlins before the deadline (Marte battled injury but still) and Montgomery gets the benefit of no DH just like Alcantara. We do have to mention the Marlins sitting fifth against the curve but they are 23rd against the changeup. With Duvall and Garrett Cooper out of the lineup, the curveball rating plummets to just 18th. He’s still generating a 13.3% swinging-strike rate and may well be the best value on the board. 

My plan as of now is to keep the options fairly limited. We only have 10 games. I looked at Adam Wainwright but the Twins are in the top 12 in ISO, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against righties the past 30 days with a K rate under 22%. That’s a tough sell in my eyes. 

Starting Rotation 8.1 Honorable Mention 

Charlie Morton – I more or less refuse to pay this price for Morton. It just doesn’t make much sense to me and even though Morton is a very good pitcher, he’s not going to pay this price tag off very often. His K rate has been stagnant around 28% basically the entire season and the xFIP has stayed around the season-long mark of 3.53. I can’t justify the salary since Morton is worse against lefty hitters and the Brewers are projected to have five. That side of the plate has a .298 wOBA and the slim chance to succeed for Morton is the 31.3% K rate. 

Marcus Stroman – We preach that game logs aren’t everything, but taking a look at Stroman’s is fascinating. Since the 17th of June, he’s had exactly one start with more than 12 DK points through seven starts. The amazing one was 34.2 DK and came against this Reds offense. Outside of June, Stroman has not sported a K rate over 20.8% and that’s my biggest gripe at this price. When he was $8,000, you didn’t need 7-8 whiffs or more. Now, you need him to go very deep into the game without giving up runs or find a strikeout rate he hasn’t shown much this season. 

Starting Rotation 8.1 Primary Stack 

I’m heading to Detroit since the Tigers are throwing out lefty Tyler Alexander, who has a FIP/xFIP combo over 5.00 to righty hitters. He throws a mix of pitches but all of them have at least a .200 ISO and a wOBA over .300 except for the sinker, about 20% to righties. My primary targets are going to be Pedro Severino, Austin Hays, and Cedric Mullins. While Mullins is a lefty, he has a wOBA over .380 against lefties and an ISO over .260 against lefty cutters, a pitch Alexander uses almost a third of the time to lefties. Severino and Hays are dirt cheap and sit over a .180 ISO on the season against lefties. 

I didn’t mention Trey Mancini or Ryan Mountcastle by design because one of my favorite two-man stacks on the slate is Juan Soto and Josh Bell. Cubs righty Adbert Alzolay gets utterly crushed by lefties with a .422 wOBA, 5.00 xFIP, 8.67 FIP, and a K rate under 20%. Bell has an ISO of .193 and Soto has racked up a .419 wOBA and .978 OPS against righties this season. Bombs away against Alzolay’s 4.22 HR/9 to lefties. 

Starting Rotation 8.1 Secondary Stacks 

• Mariners lefties against Mike Foltynewicz
• Phillies against Mitch Keller
• Pirates against Kyle Gibson 
• Mets against Vladimir Gutierrez 
• Braves against Brian Anderson 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 8.1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 7.29

Thursday is sort of a ho-hum day on the diamond as there could be just 10 games total, split into (possibly five) six and five-game slates. The pitching options on both don’t look all that great unless the Washington game plays, in which case I’d assume Zack Wheeler pitches for Philly. That remains to be seen so we’ll be skipping that game in the Starting Rotation 7.29 and talking about other options to lay our foundation for green!

Starting Rotation 7.29 – Early 

Note – There’s no telling at this juncture if the Nationals/Phillies game will actually play. If it does, I would be pretty surprised to see Max Scherzer pitch. He’s been in trade rumors very heavily these past couple of days and it just makes sense for the Nationals to not have him throw before the deadline (if he hasn’t already been traded). IF he starts, he’s the typical great play and there could be a great pitching duel between him and Wheeler. Let’s talk about other games. 

Gerrit Cole – I grant you the last time Cole met up with Tampa, he got knocked around but the strikeouts have come back for him lately. The K rate in July is back up to 37.8% so either Cole figured something out without sticky stuff or he’s just hiding it extremely well. Either way, this is a spot that he can take advantage of an inflated K rate since Tampa is sitting fifth at 25.5%. There’s the risk here since Tampa is also 11th in OPS and sixth in ISO against righties. 

Cole’s slider has been doing well these past three starts with a FanGraphs rating of at least 0.6 in each outing. The fastball was -1.3 in the last game but ahead of that, it’s been good as well. We also like the swinging-strike rate has averaged about 14% in the past three starts, right about his mark for the season. It will be interesting to see how popular Cole is and he’s definitely in play. If he’s mega chalk, we can make the case to fade as well especially if we get that Washington game. 

Carlos Rodon – He just keeps on chugging and he’s been so good this season that I’m inclined to just give him a pass when he has a poor start like last time out. Now, what has to be noted is the Royals offense has really picked up the pace against lefty pitching lately. Since the start of June, they are whiffing only 21.7% of the time and rank third in ISO. That’s not to mention top-six in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and slugging. This is quietly kind of a tough spot. Even with that noted, Rodon has a wOBA of about .240 to each side of the plate and the K rate is not lower than 33.3% to either side as well. Rodon also features a whiff rate over 31% on his four-seam and slider which make up 85% of his pitch mix. With him being $1,000 less than Cole, he could be an intriguing pivot but the spot isn’t spectacular. He’s had one great start against the Royals and one poor one, the poor one coming in a second consecutive start. 

Luis Castillo – He is finally appropriately priced but that doesn’t mean I’m not interested. There’s a reasonable chance the Cubs lineup could be very poor since trade winds are surrounding them as well. Regardless of lineup construction, Castillo has been dominating for nearly two months now. Since the start of June, he’s started 10 games and given up a total of 12 earned runs, and racked up 65 strikeouts. The wOBA has been under .250 and the ERA has never crossed the 1.71 mark. The swinging-strike rate has not been under 11.5% in any of the last 10 starts and Chicago leads the league in K rate at 26.5% against righty pitching. Castillo is my favorite play on this slate and it’s more of a matter of finding the partner than anything else. 

Starting Rotation 7.29 Early Honorable Mention 

Luis Patino – On the surface, this looks questionable. However, Patino does have some pedigree and his splits should help him in this game. He has held righty hitters to a .262 wOBA, a 3.68 xFIP, 28.9% K rate, and just a 0.83 WHIP. The issues have come against lefties but the Yankees have been in short supply for the most part. Maybe Joey Gallo debuts but it’s still going to be a righty-heavy lineup. Patino uses the slider to righties much more than lefties and the pitch has been great for him so far. It has only given up a .217 wOBA and it has a 44.7% whiff rate. 

Starting Rotation 7.29 Early Primary Stack

Let’s go to San Francisco and look at an offense that has killed lefties so far this year in the Giants. I can’t say Price has been awful against righties so far at just a .317 wOBA but the Giants are fairly cheap and sport plenty of lefty killers. Buster Posey, Darin Ruf, and Alex Dickerson are all over a .440 wOBA and .200 ISO. The sinker has been an issue for Price with a .314 ISO given up and Run has a .500 ISO, making him an elite play at the salary. Austin Slater is also super cheap for a .216 ISO and a .346 wOBA. They allow plenty of flexibility to pitch who you like and have a nice secondary stack as well. 

Starting Rotation 7.29 Early Secondary Stacks

• Mets against Drew Smyly
• Reds against Alec Mills
• White Sox against Carlos Hernandez 

Starting Rotation 7.29 – Main

Frankie Montas – With the news that Jared Walsh is on the IL, the Angels are now missing Mike Trout, Walsh, and Anthony Rendon. That’s a serious third of the lineup to be without and Montas (in theory) has an easier road than normal here. Now, he’s been frustrating to get right but Montas did nab the Angels for 28 DK in June. The results have been sketchy but the metrics look far more stable after the first month of the season for Montas. His xFIP has not been over 4.01 in any month and the K rate has been at least 24%. 

Through the first three starts in July, his K rate is 31% and that’s come against Cleveland, Seattle, and Houston. In those starts, his splitter has been a star as it has earned at least a 0.9 FanGraphs rating each start and his swinging-strike rate has been over 14.5% in each. His xFIP has been under 3.35 in each start and while he’s scary, he does make sense on this slate. We’ll get to the highest salaried pitcher on the slate shortly. 

Joe Musgrove – Let’s get this out of the way, this slate is another very poor one for arms. He started to hit the skids a little bit in June and July has been terrible through 20.1 IP. Musgrove has racked up a .344 wOBA, 5.31 ERA, and a 4.21 xFIP. The K rate has gone way south at under 24% since June hit and it has been under 18% in July. It’s difficult to not piece together the sticky stuff crackdown has been a problem for the righty. 

This is all about continuing to attack the Rockies outside of Coors Field. They are dead last in OBP, OPS, slugging, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ this year on the road against righties and whiff 26.1% of the time, fifth-highest in the league. It helps that Musgrove should only face three lefties and is better against righties at a .240 wOBA and 0.92 WHIP. The Rockies lineup could also be even worse if Trevor Story gets traded, so Musgrove makes plenty of sense. 

Casey Mize – I’m nervous about the pitch count here but under $7,000 helps those fears go away a bit. He was back up to around 80 this past game after three straight starts sitting around 50 pitches and he faces off against Baltimore. They have been a target for righty pitchers most of the season and Mize has been far superior to the right side of the plate. They only have a .264 wOBA against Mize with a 26.1% hard-hit rate plus a 52.2% ground ball rate. It should be a strong spot for Mize since he uses the slider as a primary pitch to the right side. He’s thrown a slider 312 times to righties out of a total of 436 sliders and that has been the best pitch. It has the lowest average, wOBA, and the highest whiff rate at 30.8%. Mize should face six righties and Baltimore is 17th against the slider. 

Chad Kuhl – This is not a play that has any amount of safety, but Kuhl has been seeing better results lately while the metrics are a mixed bag. Some starts the xFIP and hard-hit rate look very legit, others show he’s been dodging some bullets. Milwaukee is sixth in walk rate but also sixth in K rate to righty pitching. That’s also good and bad for Kuhl because his K rate is 19.9% and the walk rate is 12.8%. Perhaps his best asset coming into this start is the slider is his primary pitch at 45.5%. It has a .308 wOBA but also has 39 of 53 strikeouts and a 33.5% whiff rate. Milwaukee is dead last against that pitch this year and is still short hitters due to Covid. We’re only talking about 16.1 IP in July but the K rate has jumped to 28.1%. That’s worth a shot at this salary on a shorter slate. 

Starting Rotation 7.29 Main Honorable Mention 

Freddy Peralta – You may be wondering why Peralta isn’t a main target and the largest reason is the pitch count. Not only did the Brewers give him almost two weeks off from game action, they only allowed him to throw 51 pitches last time out. They also made it a point to say that skipping starts and shortened starts are in play during the second half. With the Brewers having playoff aspirations, they could continue electing to be cautious with Peralta. He’s already past his career-high in IP at the major league level and his career-high at any level is 120 IP and that was in 2017. Even if they let him throw 70-80, he’d have to be incredibly efficient to pay off the salary. Given the slate construction, I can see Peralta being popular and that could be a large advantage if you fade him. 

Starting Rotation 7.29 Main Primary Stack 

Alexander Wells takes the mound tonight for the Orioles and I’m looking at the Tigers to continue to score runs after they went full ham yesterday. Wells has a matching 42.4% hard-hit rate and fly-ball rate, which explains a 5.77 xFIP and helps explain the 5.86 FIP. Since the start of June, Detroit ranks 11th in OBP, fifth in slugging, sixth in OPS, seventh in ISO, sixth in wOBA, and fifth in wRC+ while the K rate has dropped to 23.4%. This is a much more dangerous offense than folks realize. We’re heading to the normal suspects of Eric Haase, Jonathan Schoop, Robbie Grossman, Zack Short, and Miguel Cabrera. All of these hitters are sitting at least at a .325 wOBA and the first three are over a .220 ISO as well. The four-seam for Wells is sitting around 88 MPH and has a .347 wOBA in 15 BBE. Look for the ERA to start catching up to the other metrics tonight. 

Starting Rotation 7.29 Main Secondary Stacks 

• Padres against Kyle Freeland
• Blue Jays against Eduardo Rodriguez
• You can go against a guy like Chad Kuhl as well with the Brewers hitters since Kuhl is so risky. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.29 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!