MLB DFS GPP

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.13

We are back in action with a full slate tonight of 14 games and we have a fairly deep roster of pitching options. I think there are at least six pitchers that will make the cut as a main target, let alone some Honorable Mention candidates. With that in mind, we have a ton to get to in MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.13 so let’s get rolling and set our foundation for green screens! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.13 – Main Targets 

Zack Wheeler 

I will start by saying I don’t think Wheeler is a must (at least in GPP) and one of the large knocks against him is the Reds are first against the fastball this season. That could be the most important factor in this start for Wheeler since he throws a four-seam 41.4% of the time and he has recorded 80 strikeouts with it as well. Cincinnati is not the team we attack for strikeouts generally since they only have a 23.2% K rate and they are second in wOBA, seventh in wRC+, and second in OPS. We’re not getting a discount on Wheeler after he scored 49.5 DK points last time but I wouldn’t expect another complete game shutout with 11 strikeouts tonight. He does have a 50.3% ground ball rate, a 29.4% K rate, and a 12.6% swinging-strike rate. To Wheeler’s credit, he also has a wOBA of exactly .249 to each side of the plate. It’s more just a question of upside at the salary when we have other options but Wheeler could be this year’s National League Cy Young. 

Robbie Ray 

In my eyes, the savings of $1,100 for Ray is well worth it because he’s in the far superior spot on paper. Seattle is third in K rate at 26.5% against lefties this season, Ray sits at 30.2% himself, and his fastball is ranked as the seventh-best in baseball via FanGraphs. That’s a huge contrast to Wheeler’s matchup with his fastball because Ray sits on his about 60% of the time and Seattle is 28th against that pitch. Ray has whiffed 79 hitters with the four-seam and 69 with the slider and both have a whiff rate of at least 24% (the slider is nasty at 44.7%). The 14.9% swinging-strike rate is quite impressive with such a fastball-heavy approach and he’s third in the league in that metric. A bonus for Ray is the Mariners typically still play 2-4 lefties in their lineup and Ray has held that side to a 2.49 xFIP, .250 wOBA, and a 33.9% K rate. Ray has far more factors lining up for him than Wheeler, not the least of which is the salary difference. 

Jack Flaherty 

Let’s be clear right off the bat that Captain Jack is GPP ONLY and I fully expect the field to gravitate to Charlie Morton for the exact same price. That opens a lane for us since Flaherty threw 75 pitches in the last rehab start and should be fine for a normal workload here. We only have a 62 IP sample this season for Flaherty has a 26.3% K rate and just a 1.03 WHIP. He doesn’t get to deal with the pitcher spot since it’s in an AL park but there should be five righties in the lineup. That’s an advantage for Flaherty with a 31% K rate, a 3.41 xFIP, and a .252 wOBA. Every pitch outside of his four-seam has a whiff rate over 31.5% and the four-seam has a .273 wOBA. With the Royals sitting 25th or lower in all of our offensive categories, this is a fairly soft landing spot for the returning ace. 

Shane McClanahan 

The young lefty could wind up being one of my favorite plays on the slate. First off, he’s posted above 25 DK points in back-to-back starts and his salary went down $800. Thank you very much, DK pricing algorithm. Since Minnesota traded Nelson Cruz to these Rays, they have faced a lefty for 201 plate appearances. That’s 15th in baseball in that time and they have hit the skids against southpaws. They are 21st in OBP, 29th in slugging, 27th in OPS, 29th in ISO, and 25th in wOBA and wRC+. All of that is coming with a 24.9% K rate and McClanahan has thrown at least 88 pitches in five straight starts. The K rate is 28.1% and his swinging-strike rate is elite at 15.7%. His three pitches that aren’t his four-seam all have a whiff rate over 41.5% and he should be able to feast on this Minnesota lineup. 

Adbert Alzolay 

We always need to be careful if we’re considering playing Alzolay because he has some of the most extreme splits in baseball. When he’s facing a lefty, he gets destroyed for a .410 wOBA, 4.92 xFIP, a ghastly 7.88 FIP, and just a 20.2% K rate. In contrast, righties have a 28.5% K rate, a 3.05 xFIP, the wOBA is down at .235, the fly-ball rate drops to 29.4%, and the hard-hit rate drops to 22.5%. It’s hard to stress just how much a difference the lineup can make for him. The Miami lineup projects to have six righties and the pitcher spot, not to mention pitching in Miami can be a big upgrade over pitching in Wrigley. He’s leaned on his slider all year and it has a 36.4% whiff rate, the best of any pitch and it has racked up 66 strikeouts. The Marlins are 19th against that pitch and as long as it’s righty-heavy as we expect, Alzolay is well in play. 

Jesus Luzardo 

This one will make Ghost happy but we have to stress this is wildly risky and more matchup-based as opposed to what Luzardo has put on paper this year. Perhaps this isn’t totally fair because the sample is only 80 PA since the deadline, the third-fewest in that time. However, it’s hard to ignore the appalling 32.5% K rate Chicago has in that span. We’re also talking about an offense that sits in the bottom 10 in our offensive categories BUT we have to talk about Luzardo himself. He does have some regression in a positive way that should be coming for him with a 4.87 xFIP compared to a 7.36 ERA. His 40.6% fly-ball rate could be helped by pitching in Miami (although Oakland wasn’t exactly a hitter’s paradise for him) but what’s surprising is the 13.4% swinging-strike rate. It’s kind of hard to pinpoint why that hasn’t translated for him yet as many of his numbers seem in line with his career. One aspect we can hang our hat on (hopefully) is the curve has been Luzardo’s best pitch with a .225 wOBA, 24 strikeouts, and a 54.5% whiff rate. If you take away the hitters the Cubs are now missing, they are dead last against the curve. If Luzardo turns into chalk, I probably bail on him (especially in GPP) but we’ll see what the field does. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.13 Honorable Mention 

Julio Urias – It’s a boom or bust spot in my eyes as the Mets do strike out a little bit against lefties at 24.6% and Urias is at a 26.4% rate himself. The Mets are 16th in wRC+ and Urias has been a bit tricky to get right. The edge for Urias could come from his curveball, which only has given up a .186 wOBA and has 57 strikeouts. New York sits 28th against that pitch but he’s kind of in no man’s land between Wheeler and Ray. 

Charlie Morton – As I mentioned in the Flaherty blurb, I would be fairly surprised if Morton isn’t chalky. I get it and in cash, it will likely be best just to plug him in. I’m not sure how much longer Washington can keep this up but since the deadline, they have only whiffed 19.1% of the time and are 16th in OPS, 13th in ISO, 15th in wOBA, and 11th in OBP. Morton is sitting just under a 28% K rate with a 47.3% ground ball rate so there is certainly reason to play him, just keep in mind the Nationals have been pesky. 

Josiah Gray – The K upside is practically oozing from Gray in his early work at 32.1% but he’s a mixed bag past that. The FIP is over 6.00 but the xFIP is reasonable at 4.35. I worry about the Braves seeing him twice in a row and the fly-ball rate of 59.5% is massive, to say the least. I just don’t feel like this is a risk I need to take with the size of the slate and the other options. 

Tyler Mahle – I can’t say I’m the largest fan, but I also cannot figure out how he was priced at $9,800, scores 32 DK, and hen plummets to $7,100. That is ridiculous and Mahle sports a 28.4% K rate on the season with a 12.1% swinging-strike rate. Some may look at Male on the road and see the 2.04 ERA and try and pounce, but the xFIP is 4.01 on the road compared to 3.53 at home. What could conceivably help Mahle is four projected lefties for Philly, as Mahle has a 32.1% K rate and a .244 wOBA against that side of the plate. The issues could come from a .373 wOBA against righties so this could be sort of a trap-style price. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.13 Stacks 

I’m almost concerned with the Brewers shellacking the Cubs these past two games and I hope they have some runs left in the bats. The Buccos send Mitch Keller to the mound and he has yet to show he’s a major league-level pitcher, in honesty. The Pirates bullpen is bottom 10 in xFIP and FIP on top of that but Keller is sitting on his fastball around 55% of the time. Both sides of the plate are at a .388 wOBA or above against Keller so we can fire off with abandon. 

We can really only afford one of the highest-priced bats in my eyes and I’ll side with Eduardo Escobar over Christian Yelich. Escobar has been scorching hot as a Brewer, along with Willy Adames and those two are my bedrock. They both have a wOBA over .400 with Milwaukee and an ISO over .275 (granted, Escobar is 36 PA). They both rate nicely against righty fastballs as well with ISO’s over .245. Omar Narvaez is over a .370 wOBA and all three of these hitters have K rates under 23%. Luis Urias and Kolten Wong are also in play, with a slight lean towards Urias for me at a slightly cheaper salary and a higher wOBA. 

I’m also going to look to utilize a two-man stack from Arizona in Ketel Marte and Carson Kelly. In limited action, these two have destroyed lefties with at least a .466 wOBA and a .269 ISO with K rates under 15%. I’m not buying Blake Snell’s monster start last time as anything other than an outlier and his fastball has given up a 47% hard-hit rate, a .237 ISO, and a 308-foot average distance. Both those players have ISO’s over .225 against that pitch and we’ll only need 2-3 more hitters to fill out the lineup. 

• Red Sox against Spenser Watkins 
• Rays against Michael Pineda
• Cleveland against Tyler Alexander 
• Padres against Madison Bumgarner 
• Tigers against Zach Plesac (deep GPP)

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.13 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.12

It’s Thursday and that means we have a split slate day once again but today, most of the action is in the afternoon as opposed to the evening. We have an eight-game slate in the afternoon and then two separate three-game slates the rest of the way. MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.12 will be focused on the bulk of the action in the afternoon on the eight-game slate and at first glance, we have our work cut out for us on this particular slate. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.12 – Main Targets 

Brandon Woodruff 

It’s a day that ends in Y so we are back to targeting the Cubs lineup with an excellent pitcher. Woodruff doesn’t have the same style of strikeout upside on paper as Corbin Burnes did last night but 30.1% is not anything to sneer at. The ERA/FIP/xFIP are all under 3.00, the walk rate is just 6.2%, and the hard-hit rate is 25.5%. Even the swinging-strike rate is excellent at 12.4% and it’s hard to pick at anything Woodruff has put on paper this season. The wOBA to each side of the plate is under .255 and the K rate is almost exactly the same to each side as well. Since the deadline, the Cubs are 22nd or worse in OPS, slugging, OBP, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ while striking out 31% of the time. He deserves to be heavy chalk. 

Tanner Houck 

The big righty for the Sox has looked pretty at home in the majors so far this season in his 25.2 IP. He’s racked up a 2.29 xFIP, 1.69 FIP, and a 34.3% K rate to go with a 1.13 WHIP (on a .344 BABIP). The hard-hit rate is a bit higher than I would like at 37.1% but the ground ball rate helps mitigate that at 48.3%. His swinging-strike rate of 12.3% is very solid to say the list and his slider has racked up a 42.1% whiff rate and a .204 wOBA with 17 strikeouts so far. Tampa is just 19th against the slider and Houck has held the left side of the plate to a .218 wOBA. That’s important because the Rays are projected to have seven lefties in the lineup. Houck has some upside here at the salary and I will be interested since Tampa is fourth in K rate against righties at 25.5%. 

Marco Gonzales 

This pitcher is almost never in this article and it takes a special spot to make it happen. If he wasn’t facing the Texas Rangers, I wouldn’t even be looking at him but this is one of the only offenses that Gonzales should be able to handle on paper. Since the deadline and the departure of Joey Gallo, Texas does only whiff 21.7% of the time. However, they are dead last in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and average in that time frame as well. Gonzales does have a whiff rate over 25% on his change and curve, which isn’t the worst mark possible. The K rate is passable for this salary range at 19.1% but we’re really just hoping for six strong innings with 3-4 strikeouts. It’s a large concern that Gonzales has a .401 wOBA against righties since he likely faces seven today, but the quality of those righties is highly questionable. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.12 Honorable Mention

Chris Bassitt – I severely doubt that I’ll spend on Woodruff and Bassitt together, so he’s just in Honorable Mention but Bassitt has been outstanding this season. He is just hair worse to the right side at a .284 wOBA but the xFIP is better at 3.64 and the HR/9 drops to just 0.49. 

Mitch White – I want to see what the Philly lineup looks like before deciding. He’s gotten beat up by lefties with a .352 wOBA (but does have a 27.7% K rate and a 3.25 xFIP against that side) but has held righties to a .248 wOBA (along with a 4.95 xFIP). The options are short tonight so let’s see what hand White gets dealt. 

Wade LeBlanc – He’s kind of an even worse version of Gonzales with only a 13.2% K rate and a 5.59 xFIP. Since my goal is just finding an SP2 to pair with Woodruff, I’m not likely to go here. The Pirates are a putrid offense especially lately and are bottom-five in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and ISO. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.12 Stacks 

The Orioles let us down last night but I’m heading right back to the well because they face Matt Manning of the Tigers and he has massively struggled so far with an 11.9% K rate, a 5.35 xFIP, a 36.1% hard-hit rate, and just a 7% swinging-strike rate. He’s also giving up a .405 wOBA with a 1.80 WHIP to righties, which should be the majority of the Orioles lineup. Now I’m still starting with Cedric Mullins because Manning throws his fastball at least 38% of the time and Mullins has a .231 ISO against that pitch with a .399 wOBA overall and only an 18.4% K rate. I’m also looking toward Trey Mancini (.325 ISO against righty fastballs), Austin Hays (.218 ISO), and Anthony Santander. I’m not particularly excited for the rest of this Orioles lineup so we can find other paths. 

The other path I’m looking for is Seattle lefties against Mike Foltynewicz. He’s getting rocked by lefties with a .398 wOBA, 6.02 xFIP, and a 6.97 FIP with just a 13.9% K rate. The hard-hit rate and fly-ball rate are over 42% and Kyle Seager and Abraham Toro stand out here. Both are over a .205 ISO against righty pitching and Toro has a .458 wOBA in his 34 PA with the Mariners. Jarred Kelenic is starting to hit a little bit better at the major league level and he’s actually done some damage against the fastball with a .259 ISO against it. Foltynewicz throws that pitch to lefties about 30% and we can use the cheap hitters to utilize whatever pitching we’d like. 

• Dodgers against Ranger Suarez
• Nationals big-name hitters against Trevor Williams
• Mets against Erick Fedde
• Boston against Rays bullpen day 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.12 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.11

Wednesday brings us a large 11 game slate in the evening with a four-game slate in the afternoon. Since the field dictates our path in the small slate, we’ll chat about that one in the Discord tomorrow. The focus for MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.11 is going to be on the 11 game slate in the evening so let’s get right to work and set our foundation to cash! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.11 – Main Targets 

Corbin Burnes 

I’ve been fairly hesitant with Burnes lately but that pattern will likely stop this evening since he faces the Cubs depleted lineup. Since the deadline, they are striking out over 27% of the time against righties and Burnes still features a 35% K rate on the season and has been over 29% in every full month this year. Both sides of the plate are under a .255 wOBA and a 2.50 xFIP with a WHIP no higher than 1.06. The ground ball rate remains over 50% and the hard-hit rate is only 24.1%. It’s one thing to be cautious against good offenses but Chicago does not qualify. With a swinging-strike rate of 15.9% and sitting 17th against the cutter without their traded hitters, Burnes has factors lining up for a ceiling game tonight. 

Kevin Gausman 

When you have the best splitter in baseball by a significant margin, you’re typically going to make it into the Rotation. Gausman has had bouts of inconsistency lately but he did just get this D-Backs offense for almost 30 DK points in his last start, stringing out eight. Even in July when the ERA jumped to 5.11, the K rate stayed strong at 30.3% and the xFIP was only 3.90. Arizona will likely load up with lefty hitters but Gausman still has a 29.1% K rate against that side and even though the wOBA is worse at .280, the xFIP is only 3.54 and that’s not that scary. It’s also encouraging that he throws the splitter evenly to both sides of the plate, keeping intact his best weapon regardless of the opposing lineup. The splitter has a .139 wOBA and has only allowed 21 hits on the year compared to 103 strikeouts. Every pitch aside from his four-seam has a whiff rate over 40% and Arizona is 24th against the fastball, a huge checkmark for Gausman in this spot. 

Frankie Montas 

Speaking of splitters, Montas is no stranger to throwing a lethal one, and he sits at a 53.2% whiff rate, .172 wOBA, and has 60 strikeouts. Something has clicked since the start of July with a K rate above 31.5% and an xFIP of just 3.12. Even in this last start, the xFIP was just 1.39 and we have seen upside from Montas a whole lot lately. The largest caveat to this spot and the likeliest path to failure is Cleveland is projected to be righty-heavy with seven in the lineup. Montas isn’t using the splitter against righties with just 112 of his total 444 splitters being thrown to righties. Knowing that it’s not a surprise that he’s worse against righties with a 4.06 xFIP, .320 wOBA, and just a 21.7% K rate. I don’t want to totally skip him, but the splitter usage is a large red flag for his upside chances tonight. 

Merrill Kelly

I find myself liking Kelly more than I maybe should, but the projected lineup for the Giants lines up exceptionally well for his splits. They could play 5-6 lefties in addition to the pitcher spot and while the K rate is just 18.1%, the Giants whiff over 25.5% of the time against righty pitching. Kelly has held lefties to just a .254 wOBA to go along with a 1.06 WHIP and just a 33.5% fly-ball rate. The shift into San Fran should help that facet as well and his pitch mix gives us an insight on why Kelly has been better against the left side. His sinker is giving up a .300 wOBA but he mostly ditches that pitch against lefties and shifts more towards the curve/change/cutter mix. Those three pitches all feature a wOBA under .295, have combined for 67 strikeouts, and the change/curve has a whiff rate over 26.5%. He’s not a comfortable pick but he did score 23 DK against the Giants in his last start. Unless we get some news or a very poor lineup to attack, this slate seems like one we have to spend up on pitching to make things work for us. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.11 Honorable Mention 

Adam Wainwright – I strongly dislike the salary but I can very easily see the Pirates scuffling mightily against Waino in this spot. They are 23rd against the curve and still dead last against the fastball, a big plus for Wainwright. It also helps that since the trade deadline, Pittsburgh has whiffed over 25% of the time which is a very large jump over the seasonal rate. I will not argue if you choose this route. 

Alek Manoah – One of the largest keys to his success so far has been his slider and the Angels rank as the best team against that pitch this season. The main reason I still have him in play is that he’s been lethal against righty hitters so far with a .202 wOBA and a 0.64 WHIP. The xFIP of 4.43 tells us there has been some luck involved for sure which is why he’s not one of my favorite targets. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.11 Stacks 

The last thing pitcher Wil Crowe wants to see is a righty-heavy lineup since he’s given up a .413 wOBA, 2.93 HR/9, 6.77 FIP, and a 1.75 WHIP against that side of the plate. Granted, he’s not exactly shutting down lefties either with a .324 wOBA and a 5.23 xFIP.He uses his fastball around 40% of the time and it gets killed for a .498 wOBA, .396 ISO, and a 330-foot average distance. If Tyler O’Neill is back in the lineup, he is my favorite hitter in the stack with a .236 ISO against righties and a .407 wOBA against the fastball. Even if not, we can spend on pitching and still afford Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Harrison Bader. They all have an ISO over .210 against righty fastballs and are all over a .330 wOBA against righties in general. Bader is especially valuable at $2,400 and cheaper hitters like Paul DeJong and Dylan Carlson are in play as well, just not primary targets. 

I also want to get some exposure to the Milwaukee offense, but they are expensive. For me, I’m looking to go right up the middle of the diamond with Kolten Wong and Willy Adames. The latter is one cheap way to get into this offense and sits over a .315 wOBA against righties while Adames has a .446 wOBA against the sinker, which is the main pitch for Jake Arrieta. He’s getting mashed by either side of the plate with over a .380 wOBA allowed. 

• Blue Jays against Dylan Bundy 
• Orioles against Tarik Skubal 
• Phillies against David Price

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.11 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.10

We have a normal sprawling slate for Tuesday but the bad news is the pitching selection is just not all that great. The lone bona fide ace in Max Scherzer and he’s sure to be very chalky, but the options past that is pretty scattered. We have some work to do to find our pitchers in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.10 so let’s get moving to set our foundation for green screens! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.10 – Main Targets 

Max Scherzer 

Much like last night, I’m not going to spend the most time here because Mad Max is in a tier of his own by a long shot tonight. Philly does only strike out 23% of the time but Houston is only at 20% and it didn’t matter to Scherzer last time out as he racked up 10 strikeouts. Mad Max could be re-energized in a playoff chase and that’s bad news for offenses considering he has a 34.5% K rate and a 16% swinging-strike rate. The 0.89 WHIP would be the best mark Scherzer has ever put up in his career and neither side of the plate is above a .270 wOBA. The Philly lineup projects to be balanced with four lefties and four righties and as far as cash goes, Scherzer is locked in. Even in GPP, it’s hard to see on the surface the pitcher that can match his upside. 

Note – A lot of the high-priced pitchers are either severely overpriced or in bad spots, meaning I’m likely to go bargain hunting. Aaron Nola, Alex Wood, and Sonny Gray are up against difficult offenses and then Logan Gilbert and Ross Stripling are priced out of play. All of these pitchers have flashed upside but are far too unstable to be paying what DK is asking.

Eduardo Rodriguez 

Tampa has been hot lately against lefties but generally this season they have been a liability, flirting with bottom-five marks in all of our offensive categories. They are also still hovering around 24% for the K rate so they can be had in that regard. E-Rod catches my eye for GPP because he’s been one of the unluckier pitchers this season. He’s sporting an ugly 5.22 ERA but the xFIP is 3.30 to go with a K rate of 28.9% and a hard-hit rate of just 28%. The 11.9% swinging-strike rate is in line with every other season, so it’s fairly easy to believe the ERA is bloated when considering his metrics. The HR/9 is 1.07 to the right side of the plate along with a 3.29 xFIP and he’s projected to face five of them. If he does face four lefties, the K rate jumps up to over 30%. His main two pitches are over a 29.5% whiff rate and the range of outcomes is wide, so we’re only talking GPP here. 

Carlos Carrasco 

It should tell you a lot that Carrasco is in the mix since he’s not even hit 65 pitches in either start yet (but should continue to build up). He’s put some solid metrics on paper through the first 8.1 IP on the year with a 26.5% K rate, 50% ground ball rate, and a FIP/xFIP combo under 3.00. The swinging-strike rate really catches your eye at 16.7% even in a small sample size. Carrasco has been mixing up his pitches but they all have a whiff rate over 23.5% and the slider has been especially good with a .152 wOBA and 40.9% whiff rate. The salary is still high since his pitch limit will likely be around 75 at most, so I would still be cautious. 

Casey Mize 

Anytime the Orioles face a righty pitcher, I’m at least taking a look. Mize does appear to be on a soft pitch count for the rebuilding Tigers in that 85 or so pitches is likely the most we get. Mize is not a strikeout artist at this juncture of his career at only 19.2% but the WHIP is down to 1.13 from 1.48 in 2020 and he’s generating a 50% ground ball rate. I don’t believe it to be a coincidence that Mize just scored over 19 DK points against this Baltimore offense since he’s holding the right side of the plate to a .284 wOBA, 0.86 HR/9, and a 25.7% hard-hit rate. A large part of those numbers appears to come from the slider, which is easily his primary pitch to the right side. He’s thrown it to righties 342 times out of 484 on the season and it has only given up a .243 wOBA with a .30.5% whiff rate. The Orioles are top 12 in K rate against righty pitching and sit in the bottom-five in OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. He’s one of the better bargains on the evening. 

Starting Rotation Special 

It’s been a hot minute since we had a special (I guess we could have made Austin Gomber that man Saturday but I digress) and this one is a BIG RISK. This player has thrown exactly 0.2 IP in the majors and he got totally wrecked with here walks, zero strikeouts, and seven runs allowed. That start came against this same team but that worries me very little. He’s a lefty and down in AAA this season, he’s shown a K rate of 36% and a 2.28 xFIP throughout 62.1 IP. The swinging-strike rate is 17% in AAA so the strikeout stuff is legitimate. Part of the issue in that first start was he threw his sinker 82% of the time, far too much. Since the Trade Deadline, the offense he’s facing has whiffed 36.8% of the time and is 25th or lower in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, slugging, and OPS. Aaron Ashby gets his second shot in the majors and gets to start the second game of a doubleheader against the Cubs and $4,400 is interesting to me with a legitimate strikeout pitching prospect. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.10 Honorable Mention

Sean Manaea – I really am not a fan of the salary and he should face seven righties, which only whiff 23.8% of the time and have a 3.75 xFIP. Cleveland isn’t great against fastballs at 19th and Manaea throws the sinker right around 50% of the time but he just feels very, very pricey. 

Zac Gallen – He’s been very difficult to get right this year and in fairness, has been dealing with injuries the whole time. He has a K rate approaching 29% which is massive for this low of a price tag but does have a wOBA over .330 against lefties. He’s projected to see six in the Giants lineup and his K rate drops to 21.9%. I feel like he’s very talented for his salary, but the spot really does him no favors. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.10 Stacks 

With such a big slate, I’m more inclined to use mini-stacks from teams I love and I’ll be highlighting three separate two-man stacks that I really like. The first place we go is right back to the White Sox, as the Twins are sending Griffin Jax to the mound. Chicago is getting very healthy and Jax has been smashed by righty hitters with a 6.27 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, and a .384 wOBA. His four-seam has been smacked around with a .327 wOBA and Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert are both vastly underpriced. They should be more towards $5,000 and until the price corrects itself, they are in against poor pitching. Both hitters are in the positives against the fastball in FanGraphs rating despite the very small sample this season. 

J.A. Happ is on the mound again and righties have nearly a .400 wOBA and a 5.50 xFIP against him. Hoy Park has been leading off some nights and has hit well in his limited action so far at a .353 wOBA and .819 OPS. He’s been hitting in AAA and is a great value considering his flexibility, and we can put him at shortstop so we have an outfield spot for Bryan Reynolds. Happ has seen his four-seam rack up a .409 wOBA and 14 home runs given up. Not only does Reynolds smash lefties with a .403 wOBA and a .217 ISO, but he also ranks as the ninth-best fastball hitter for FanGraphs.He’s hit a fastball for 13 of his 19 home runs with a .444 wOBA. I love the idea of using the cheaper Buccos to make pitching and bigger name hitters work tonight. 

You can consider larger stacks of the first two teams and this team as well, but my main two targets for my Detroit stack are Jonathan Schoop and Jeimer Candelario. Keegan Akin is starting for the Orioles and his wOBA is over .380 against both sides of the plate while righties only have a 16.1% K rate and a 5.40 xFIP. Akin has seen every pitch rack up a .360 wOBA or higher and his fastball is used almost 58% of the time. Candelario and Schoop are two of the top four hitters against that pitch and are over a .340 wOBA. Schoop and Eric Haase are over a .435 wOBA and .263 ISO but Haase is very expensive for a catcher. 

• Reds against Drew Smyly 
• A’s against Triston McKenzie 
• Red Sox lefties against Luis Patino 
• Yankees against Daniel Lynch 
• The Jays/Angels game and Brewers/Cubs game are not included since it’s only a seven-inning game for those games

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.10 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 8.9

MLB has only scheduled five games for this Monday evening, which is a bit of a surprise. The chalk is going to be heavy on this pitching slate and some of that chalk is going to be hard to argue against. Let’s discuss that and more, including where we can find our edge in the Starting Rotation 8.9 to find green screens again!

Starting Rotation 8.9 – Main Targets 

Freddy Peralta 

We’re honestly not going to spend a ton of time here since Peralta is likely going to push 70% in GPP settings and he is an inarguable must in cash game settings. Peralta sits eighth in swinging-strike rate at 14.2% and is tied for second in K rate at 34.5%. Workload concerns have been a bit overblown from Milwaukee, as he threw 98 pitches in the last start. In the previous start, he was pulled at 68 pitches because the Brewers were beating up the Buccos by 6+ runs. It’s a small sample, but the Cubs are striking out at a 26.8% rate since the Trade Deadline and we saw both Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodon eclipse double-digit strikeouts the past two games. Peralta has statistically been the superior strikeout pitcher this year and he’s a stone-cold lock. I’ll lose with him before I fade him tonight. 

Luis Castillo 

We could take the Double Ace Tulloch Special approach on this slate (and would require a cheap offense to pull it off) as Castillo continues his resurgence. He’s only been below 16 DK points once in the past 10 starts and six have been over 22. After his disaster first couple months, the ERA over the next 75.1 IP has not been over 2.15, the wOBA has not been over .272, and the K rate has been over 25%. He’s producing like the ace he is and his price has finally caught up, which is why Peralta will carry all the popularity. 

The Cleveland lineup is projected to only have three lefties, which would help Castillo. That has been the worse side of the plate for him with a .330 wOBA, 4.57 xFIP, and a 14% walk rate. What also helps Castillo is the Cleveland offense is 23rd against the changeup, which has been the most-thrown pitch for the righty. The change has generated a 30.5% whiff rate, a .287 wOBA, and has 50 strikeouts on the season. What’s really interesting is if Castillo draws a righty-heavy lineup, that actually forces his slider into play far more. Cleveland is 14th against it but rates as a -9.1 for FanGraphs. His slider also has the best whiff rate at 42.3% and the lowest wOBA at .201. His sinker and slider are the most-used pitches to righties, which opens a different avenue for Castillo in this spot. 

Joe Musgrove 

We’ve not been playing Big Joe lately, and past the start against the Rockies it hasn’t burned us in the least. However, this lines up well for him and we can’t ignore him tonight. Miami is coming out of Coors Field on their West Coast swing and we know that offenses coming out of Denver tend to struggle in their first game after that series. Musgrove has used the slider/curve mix about 50% of the time and those pitches are going to look even harder to hit after Coors. 

Both pitches are over a 35% whiff rate and the wOBA is not higher than .215 for either. Musgrove’s fastball-style pitches have been the ones that have hurt him, with wOBA’s over .370. Miami sits 29th against fastballs and 16th against cutters. The other good news for Musgrove is he’s only projected to face two lefties. He’s held righties to a .234 wOBA, a 26.4% K rate, and a 0.89 WHIP. Interestingly, his xFIP is higher against righties but the Marlins and their 28th ranked ISO can make that matter. We could see Musgrove as the chalky pairing with Peralta. 

Jameson Taillon 

Someone has to explain to me how Taillon goes from $10,200 and scoring 27.3 DK points down to $7,800 because that’s absolutely ridiculous. His FIP has been under 3.35 in the past four starts and owns a healthy 24.1% K rate on the season. He’s been using the four-seam a bit more lately and things have just started to come together for him in the past 30 or so days. His July ERA was 1.16 and the wOBA has gone under .250 in that period, along with a FIP under 3.50. 

Jamo has been better against righties and there should be five in the lineup for him to face tonight. They whiff at a 24.9% rate and the xFIP for the season is barely over 4.00. Not only are the Royals 25th against the fastball, but they are also 19th against the slider and 17th against the curve. Every pitch for Taillon has at least a 20.4% whiff rate and the pitch data suggests a great spot for him. Perhaps Jamo drops back down to the 4-6 strikeout range after 10 in his last start. That’s fine considering the price and he could be an interesting pivot from a possibly chalky Musgrove. 

Starting Rotation 8.9 Honorable Mention 

Lucas Giolito – I’m about done trying to get him right but maybe that means he’s going to score 25+ DK points tonight. July saw his xFIP climb to over 4.00 and the K rate was right about 25%. The issue with Giolito is the fact that the metrics always look solid and then he doesn’t actually pitch well. The inconsistency has been maddening. His four-seam is giving up a .333 wOBA compared to .260 in 2020 and the Twins are second against fastball this season. 

Carlos Hernandez – The young righty for the Royals has scored over 20 DK points in the past two starts and his xFIP from those games is under 4.50. The other metrics like hard-hit rate are a mixed bag and he’s been worse against righties, a concern with the Yankee lineup. His curve and slider have both generated a 38.2% whiff rate or higher to go with 21 combined strikeouts. He’s only using them a combined 36% of the time so it’s risky, but he’s about as low as you can go in salary tonight. 

Starting Rotation 8.9 Stacks 

It should shape up to be a long night for the Twins pitching, as they plan to use Beau Burrows as an opener, followed by lefty Charlie Barnes as the primary pitcher. That works for me because we love White Sox against lefties with a focus on Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, and Andrew Vaughn. Barnes has only pitched against a total of 32 righties with a .338 wOBA and a K rate under 10%. Vaughn and Abreu have hammered lefties so far with a wOBA of at least .370 and an ISO over .300 for each. Jimenez only has 13 (admittedly putrid) PA against lefties so far but is coming off a double-dong game last night and he had a .267 ISO last season. Barnes is giving up a 46.4% hard-hit rate against righties and I’m very interested in the White Sox. 

The secondary portion is a bit of a split. Cleveland is using a bullpen game tonight with Sam Hentges “starting”. As long as Nicholas Castellanos is $4,000 on DK, he will be in my lineup without any question. The full lineup is in play although the matchup is impossible to break down on a hitter-by-hitter basis. 

The other players I will consider using one or two of actually come from the Twins side of things. Listen, we know that Giolito has the potential to shove any start but he also has the potential to get blasted. The top fastball hitters on the team are Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Arraez. I’m not using all of them together but the latter three all have a wOBA over .350 and everyone has an ISO over .202 except for Arraez. Giolito is worse against righties in part because he uses the changeup more to lefties. Garver is my favorite of the bunch, followed by Polanco, Arraez, and Sano last because it’s hard not to go Abreu in a White Sox stack. 

• Padres against Zach Thompson
• Brewers against Alec Mills 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 8.9 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 8.6

Almost every single team is in action tonight and we have 28 choices to pick from. We do get the luxury of having some bigger names on this slate but the quality of options drops off a cliff. That means we may need to find some value bats along the way in Starting Rotation 8.6 to set our foundation for green! 

Starting Rotation 8.6 – Main Targets 

Corbin Burnes 

Burnes got rocked by Atlanta last time out and this particular spot is a mix of risk and reward. We saw yesterday a pitcher of the quality of Merrill Kelly tame the San Francisco bats and there’s a couple of factors at play there, in my mind. For one, the Giants simply carry a high strikeout rate against righty pitching at 25.8%. The other is a bit harder to quantify past the Giants have been playing a little over their heads. Looking at the lineup would not lead you to believe that their offense is a top-tier unit and we could see some second-half regression. Burnes is still rocking a K rate of 36% and his FIP/xFIP combo is a sterling 1.50/2.20. 

A factor under the risk column is the Giants are second against the cutter this season. That has been the bread and butter pitch for Burnes with a .272 wOBA, 32.6% whiff rate, and 85 strikeouts. The K rate dipped for Burnes in July at 29.4% but his FIP/xFIP was still under 2.65 each. Both sides of the plate are under a .260 wOBA and they both whiff over 33% of the time. I can see him being a must-play in cash but I am undecided in GPP. On such a big slate, we could potentially spend down. 

Chris Bassitt

Can I just put “Dylan Bundy just dominated this lineup, play Chris Bassitt” and move on? No? Alright, here we go. He shoved against the Angels lineup last time out for nearly 30 DK and since the start of July, Texas is 29th or 30th in OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. They do come up to 19th in ISO but that’s certainly not scary. The K rate is 23.5% for this lineup and Bassitt is using a sinker, four-seam, or cutter almost 75% of the time this year. Texas is 29th against the cutter and 25th against the fastball, another big plus for Bassitt. None of his fastball-style pitches has a whiff rate over 28.2% but he’s sort of like Lance Lynn – he just gets it done. His K rate is right about 25% and his hard-hit rate is under 28%. There is very little to pick at here and I honestly think I like Bassitt better than Burnes. 

Alek Manoah 

This will be a gutsy play as Manoah walks into a start against the Boston Red Sox, but that doesn’t mean he can’t succeed at all. His fastball/slider mix has been excellent so far, especially the slider. He doesn’t have near the innings to qualify but if he did, his fastball would be around 18th and the slider would be 13th across the entire league. The slider has a .210 wOBA and a 37.2% whiff rate across 227 pitches. Manoah should face five righties and that’s great news for the slider. That and the four-seam are his main two pitches against righties while lefties see the sinker the second-most. It doesn’t appear that the 13.2% swinging-strike rate is a mirage. 

Boston has also jumped up in strikeouts a little bit since the start of July, over 23%. Manoah only threw 17.1 innings in July (Tampa twice and Kansas City once) but he might have figured some things out. The ERA was 1.02, the wOBA was .189, the K rate was 33.3%, and the FIP was 1.75. He didn’t give up a home run (and the xFIP was almost 4.00) but when a prospect of his pedigree puts that on the field, it’s hard to not at least consider him regardless of opponent. 

John Means 

I was sort of waiting on Means to show he was fully back from injury and that happened in the last start with 24.5 DK points. He induced a 24% whiff rate and 35% on his changeup alone, not to mention a 31% CSW. He also used the change as a primary pitch as opposed to the four-seam. Tampa is 14th against the changeup but Means is rated at 10.6, which would be the best in baseball. Means also features a K rate over 23% and the Rays have remained awful against lefties even since July. Sure, Nelson Curz will help but we’re talking bottom-five in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, slugging, and OBP with a 25.1% K rate. Means has held righties to a .262 wOBA, has a 25% K rate, and a 28% hard-hit rate. At under $9,000, he makes plenty of sense in my view tonight. The last time we attacked the Rays with a lefty, Yusei Kikuchi was around 3%. I’d love to get Means at that percentage tonight.

German Marquez 

It may not ever be comfortable to use pitching in Coors Field but spots don’t get a whole lot better than this against the Marlins. They strike out 25% of the time on the season and are 26th in fly-ball rate against righty pitching. They are 28th in ISO, 24th in OPS, and no higher than 20th in wOBA or wRC+. Marquez has a K rate of 25% and a ground ball rate at 52.6%, which really fits against Miami. Marquez also has a lower HR/9 at home, a lower WHIP, and he’s better against righty hitters. They only have a .250 wOBA to go with a 30.4% K rate and a 3.06 xFIP and Miami is slated to throw out six righties plus the pitcher spot. The slider and curve both have a whiff rate over 42% on the year and they have combined for 109 of 124 strikeouts. I’m certainly interested in him tonight and provided he gets a righty-heavy lineup to face, the spot fits Marquez’s strengths perfectly. 

Logan Webb

We talk all the time that a lot of times, home/road splits aren’t the most useful metric to talk about past extreme parks. To wit, Webb has pitched on the road against the Mariners, Phillies, Padres, Rockies, Reds, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Dodgers again. It’s really no wonder the road ERA is 4.62 and the home mark is 1.85. When we look at the xFIP, it’s 3.25 on the road and 3.04 at home and that makes far more sense. Webb sports a ground ball rate over 60% through 73 innings and the Brewers are 11th in that metric at 44.1%. On top of that, he has a K rate over 24% and Milwaukee is at nearly 25% as a team. 

It might be the third pitch in usage, but the slider has been lethal for Webb. He’s used it more to righties and that isn’t totally ideal as five lefties will probably be in the Brewers lineup. However, he still uses it against lefties and it has a .180 wOBA, 45% whiff rate, and 33 strikeouts. His changeup is the primary pitch to lefties and that pitch has 24 strikeouts, so there is an upside at this salary. I’m not sure if I’ll dip any further down the ladder. 

Starting Rotation 8.6 Honorable Mention 

Adam Wainwright – It’s tough to argue that I’d play Waino ahead of Bassitt but the matchup is soft on paper. KC is in the NL park so they lose the DH (although that likely doesn’t matter with their lineup) and they rank 20th against the curveball. That’s the main pitch for Wainwright and it has 55 strikeouts. For what it’s worth, he has almost double the innings pitched at home than on the road and the ERA is two runs lower. The xFIP does tell a different story as it’s similar home or on the road, which is a small part of why I’d just play Bassitt. 

Kyle Muller – His xFIP of 4.60 compared to the 2.43 ERA is a bit worrisome but Muller has flashed some upside through his 29.2 IP with a score of 31 DK. He’s also never crossed the 19 point barrier past that one start, so I do feel like he’s overpriced even with a 27% K rate and a 13.8% swinging-strike rate. The nationals also proved to be a pain again yesterday with five earned runs hung on Aaron Nola so I feel like there are other options we can look at. 

Wade Miley – I wonder if folks might be a little skittish with Miley on this slate after Uber-chalk Sonny Gray burned the field last night. Pittsburgh is seventh in ground ball rate against lefties while Miley is at a 50.4% ground ball rate himself. Pittsburgh is only at a 20.6% K rate so the price is high-ish but they are also bottom 10 in all of our offensive categories. If Gray hadn’t had one poor inning, the Pirates did virtually nothing last night and the offense has been struggling. 

Starting Rotation 8.6 Stacks 

On a big slate, I want to generally stick with 3-4 man stacks and I want the Yankees, which we’ll get to in a minute. However, I’m inclined to lock in Bassitt as one pitcher and then sit in the Means/Marquez/Manoah range for my second option. That means we need some cheap options and we’re talking about the late-night hammer with ….the Arizona Diamondbacks. I know, exactly who you thought, right?

The D-Backs are facing lefty Ryan Weathers and he’s really dodging bullets against righty hitters. He’s given up a .338 wOBA, 5.21 xFIP, a 1.74 HR/9, and a whopping 43.5% hard-hit rate to that side of the plate. Ketel Marte, Nick Ahmed, and Asdrubal Cabrera are all over a .335 wOBA and the first two hitters I mentioned are over a .210 ISO. Marte especially has obliterated lefties in 41 PA at a .552 wOBA. Even if you choose not to stack Arizona, he’s a pretty nice one-off. 

I think my favorite three-man stack on the slate might well be Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Kyle Higashioka. Marco Gonzales takes the mound and he’s getting mashed by righty hitters with a .418 wOBA, 5.67 xFIP, and a 48.4% fly-ball rate. He features the sinker prominently at about 42%, which has an average distance of 308 feet. It’s 318 feet down the line in New York so do the math there. Additionally, Judge and Stanton have a wOBA over .500 against the sinker with ISO’s over .285. Higashioka sits at a .375 ISO against lefty sinkers and he and Judge are over a .400 wOBA against lefties in general. Even Stanton is over a .340 mark and they are a very affordable trio. 

• Astros against Bailey Ober
• Cleveland against Matt Manning 
• Braves against Erick Fedde 
• Mariners against Deivi Garcia 
• Orioles against Ryan Yarbrough 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 8.6 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!