MLB DFS GPP

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18

Saturday brings us some split slate action and before we get into that, we have to shout out our man Matt Vecchio. This man is printing money over in NASCAR and is just wildly knowledgeable about the sport. He guided me to a top 30 finish and all I know about NASCAR is the cars go fast, Ricky Bobby-style. Do yourself a favor and get on board! Now we can talk about the six and eight-game slates in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 and find our paths to green!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 – Afternoon 

It doesn’t matter where he’s pitching, Max Scherzer is an elite option. He has somehow found a whole new level as a Dodger. Mad Max can smell a championship and in eight starts, he’s struck out at least six hitters and made it through five innings in every single one. The ERA is 0.88 and he has 72 strikeouts over that time. I’m simply not fading that. His seasonal metrics remain elite with a K rate over 35%, a swinging-strike rate inside the top five at 16.4%, and everything has gotten better in Dodger blue. You just play him and count the strikeouts and on a six-game slate with no other realistic ace options, it’s even harder to pivot away. 

Mad Max is going to be insane levels of chalk because of the 11 other options, I’m not sure many are good. The only other two that I think have pathways to succeed are Luis Gil and Nick Pivetta. I know that skips over Sonny Gray but I’m just not on board with him against the Dodgers. They have had their issues and Luis Castillo smoked them last night, but that puts the Dodgers one day closer to going off. 

Anyways, let’s talk about Gil. He’s only made five starts and totaled 25 innings in the majors so we still don’t have a strong track record to fall back on. It’s noteworthy that the 4.76 xFIP is a good deal higher than the 2.88 ERA he’s managed so far. The good news is he’s also sported a 29.6% K rate and that can help mitigate any damage he allows. The swinging-strike rate is 12.8% and he’s mostly just used his four-seam and slider so far. They both have a whiff rate over 28.5% and the four-seam is sitting at about 96 MPH. There are some fly-ball tendencies since both sides of the plate are over 50% and the walk rate is very high at over 13%. Cleveland is at a 23.9% K rate this season and just a 7.5% walk rate, so even with his warts, Gil is in play. 

Playing Pivetta isn’t going to be super comfortable either but the matchup does help. Chris Sale struggled to strike hitters out last night but Baltimore is much worse against righty pitching, so that helps. They are inside the top 10 in K rate at 24.6% and are no better than 20th in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Pivetta is another player that I don’t expect to just totally cruise but he is better against the right side of the plate and he carries a 26% K rate into this spot. The WHIP, wOBA, HR/9, and xFIP are all lower for Pivetta against righties, and Baltimore is projected to send out seven. It’s also nice to see the Orioles are -10 in FanGraphs rating against the slider and Pivetta uses that pitch a lot against righties. It has a .325 wOBA but that’s not a strength for Baltimore, leaving Pivetta as my likely SP2. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 Afternoon Stacks 

It’s time to play “how many Rays can I fit with my pitchers of choice” i.e. everyday life for Brian. They dare Tarik Skubal…sort of. Detroit has limited him to 50 and 49 pitches in his last two starts so I’m not as concerned with the matchup here for Tampa as far as Skubal goes. They’ll get the bullpen so I like fitting in lefties like Brandon Lowe and Austin Meadows because some may shy away from the lefty versus lefty matchup. Punts like Kevin Kiermaier and Brett Phillips could really help fit Scherzer and then you can roll from there, depending on the Tampa lineup. This isn’t our usual pitch type breakdown but I’ll take Rays against Detroit every day. 

I’m mostly building the Tampa stack around my Rockies stack because they have the tools to smash Patrick Corbin. My first two in the lineup without fail are C.J. Cron and Trevor Stroy. They are perfect compliments to the Rays because Wander Franco is on the IL and the Rays don’t have a “must-play” first baseman. Corbin throws the sinker about 37% of the time against righties and it’s giving up a .217 ISO and 45% hard-hit rate. Story and Cron wreck that pitch with ISO’s of .352 and .414 along with wOBA’s of .483 and .607. They are also over a .385 wOBA and .265 ISO against lefties on the season. If you don’t want to go Lowe, Brendan Rodgers is the best statistical lefty masher in Colorado and you could run that trio and roll Tampa around them. 

• Red Sox against Zac Lowther
• Tigers against Ryan Yarbrough 
• Blue Jays against Bailey Ober 
• Twins against Steven Matz 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 – Evening 

Ace Tier 

It’s going to be hard to not lock in Corbin Burnes. He almost threw a no-hitter the last time on the mound and the last time he saw this Cubs lineup, he whiffed 15 hitters across eight of the most dominant innings of the season. Burnes has everything we want out of an ace. He has both sides of the plate under a .245 wOBA, the xFIP is no higher than 2.45 against either side, both sides whiff at least 34% and the WHIP is no higher than one. He should be one of the front runners for NL Cy Young, even if he likely doesn’t win it. The Cubs offense has been peskier than perception since the deadline as they are 15th in ISO but the K rate is flirting with 30%. I’m simply not going to pass that up. 

If we can find the offense to make things work, we have to talk about my main dude Lance Lynn as well. At least that was my train of thought before I saw DK has him under $9,000, which I will gladly take. I will not fade Burnes for him but would love to go double ace because Lynn should be facing a righty-heavy lineup and that’s been a big boost for him this season. Everything in his fastball-heavy arsenal plays better against the right side since he has a .227 wOBA, 31.2% K rate, 2.71 FIP, and just a 25% hard-hit rate. Texas is just at a 22.9% K rate since the deadline but they also rate 27th against the fastball and 28th against the cutter. With Lynn throwing a sinker, four-seam, or cutter almost 92% of the time, this checks the boxes for the big guy. 

Yusei Kikuchi has been a tough guy to be on the right side of this season, to be sure. The Royals don’t offer us a lot of strikeouts against lefties since they sit under 20% for the season but they do have the sixth-highest ground ball rate at 45.1%. Kikuchi matches that with a 49.4% rate himself and the Royals have not hit lefties well since the deadline. I grant you, the K rate is the best in the majors in that span but they are no higher than 13th in OPS, OBP, wOBA, wRC+, and they are 29th in ISO. If Kikuchi can keep the ball in the yard and on the ground, he could get deep into this game with 4-6 strikeouts and still make it work. His cutter has been his wort pitch by results with a .367 wOBA but the Royals are only 22nd against that pitch. 

The last pitcher in consideration (and I promise that I’m not trying to skimp, these slates just aren’t great for pitching, gang. There are some tough matchups on the board and I’m happy to take a stand) is Lance McCullers. We quickly touched on this in Friday’s article but McCullers wound up starting tonight instead. Lefties can get to him but Arizona is also striking out at the seventh-highest rate at 24.7%. His curveball surprisingly only has 45 strikeouts and he throws it almost exclusively to lefties. That helps explain why his K rate against lefties is 25.3% and it is 29.4% against righties. I don’t think he has the highest ceiling but I don’t have a big issue past I’ll just play Lynn. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 Stacks 

It’s a bit of a weird slate because there aren’t a lot of pitchers that I want, but there aren’t a lot of pitchers that scream go all-in on stacking against them. Where I land is in GPP, let’s take a shot at getting in on the Yu Darvish regression. He has a wOBA over .300 since July and he’s using the cutter the most against righty hitters at around 38%. It just so happens that A. His cutter has given up 10 home runs and has a .360 wOBA and B. there’s a trio of Cardinals that smash righty cutters. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Tyler O’Neill are all priced like Darvish has been pitching well lately and all of them have at least a .352 wOBA and .222 ISO against that pitch type. O’Neill especially stands out with a .504 wOBA and 68.4% (!) hard-hit rate. 

After that, I’m looking at some cheaper Angels since the A’s are throwing Daulton Jeffries and he has a 4.88 xFIP, which could be exploitable. The strikeout upside is negligent at 13.8% and he uses a sinker over 33% of the time. I know he’s been struggling lately, but Shohei Ohtani is about as cheap as we can get him and hammers sinkers with a .522 ISO and .564 wOBA along with a 344-foot average distance. We can then add on Brandon Marsh and maybe even a cheap Luis Rengifo who both have an ISO of .200 against the sinker as well. 

• Brewers against Justin Steele
• Mariners against Kris Bubic 
• A’s against Jose Suarez
• Astros against Humberto Castellanos 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.17

We’re back in action with a full MLB slate tonight and we have some heavy hitters at the top of the pecking order tonight. The teams they face could pose some issues, but I think there’s a player likely to be chalk that I can’t really argue. Let’s talk about the top tier and figure out who else can roll with them tonight in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.17 to lead us to green! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.17 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

I’ll get this out of the way, this is a slate that we’re going to live in the Ace range and have a couple of risky punts and that is it. The mid-range tonight looks pretty terrible tonight and I am not interested really at all. We have some underpriced Aces that we should take advantage of and then take some shots with a punt arm in GPP. 

It’s going to be hard to pass on Chris Sale under five digits against the Orioles. Yes, we’ve talked all year about the Orioles hitting better against lefties and that is valid. However, the K rate is still right at 23% and Sale is sitting at a 27.5% K rate and his swinging-strike rate is 14.3%, which would rank inside the top 10 if Sale qualified. It’s an elite mark and even if Sale gives up a bomb or two, he should be able to make it up with strikeouts. The other factor (and this is one we really need to start paying attention to) is Boston is fighting for their lives for the playoffs. They need their ace to be their ace in this game. Boston has to beat up on a squad like Baltimore. Even coming off Covid, I think Sale goes as long as he can. He’s only been over 90 pitches once but that should change tonight. I don’t expect perfection, but I expect the K’s to make up for it. 

Walker Buehler continues to be one of the most consistent sources of 20 DK points we can play and outside of one awful start against the Giants, he’s continuing that trend. The Reds aren’t the biggest strikeout team at 23.2% and they are sixth against the fastball, but Buehler has been so good this year it’s hard to be totally concerned. The ballpark is a downgrade to be sure but Buehler still has a .262 wOBA even against lefties and his K rate is above 24% against each side of the plate. My small fear with Buehler is the xFIP is a full run higher than the ERA and Cincy is a place that can make the routine fly-balls look like a huge home run. The Reds are also sixth in ISO so there’s more risk than normal, but I think Buehler could be overlooked by the field. 

This will be a high-wire act but Logan Webb has the K upside we crave and even though Atlanta is a tough team to get after, they are in San Francisco, and Atlanta still whiffs over 24% of the time and that’s in the top 12. They are also one of the better offenses in baseball but much like Boston, the Giants are still fighting for playoff position. Of the eight players Webb is slated to face, five are righties and that’s what could help Webb succeed. Righties are striking out at a 28.8% clip and only carry a 2.55 xFIP and 22.9% hard-hit rate. On top of that, the ground ball rate is over 60% against each side of the plate and his slider has been a weapon this year. It has a wOBA of just .183, a whiff rate of 46.2%, and 73 strikeouts. Atlanta ranks 10th but that’s good for a -8.4 FanGraphs rating. All of Webb’s metrics rise at home and he could be a stealthy 22+ DK points. 

Zack Wheeler has found his form recently with at least 28 DK in his past two starts and a total of 17 strikeouts with just one run allowed. It’s a bit of a risk/reward spot because Wheeler is slightly worse against lefties, but strikes them out at a higher rate. The lineup should be balanced for the Mets and since the trade deadline, New York is striking out at a 23% rate. They are right about average in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, and OPS since that time and Wheeler is leaning on his fastball and slider to strike hitters out. The Mets are in the negatives against both pitches but with the options at our disposal tonight, I’m not convinced I want to spend the top dollar amount. 

Honorable Mention 

Both Lance McCullers and Dylan Cease are in play and Cease would be my favorite. He has a K rate over 29% against each side of the plate but will face mostly righties and has a .306 wOBA and 4.21 xFIP against that side. It’s the same deal for McCullers in that he has much worse splits against lefties at a .311 wOBA, 4.05 xFIP, and the K rate is down to 25.3%. Both the Texas and Arizona offenses aren’t good, but they do present some small issues for these pitchers. 

Punt Tier 

We do have one arm under $7,000 that catches my eye and it’s Cole Irvin. Is he a good pitcher? Well, not exactly. The K rate is a paltry 16.1% but the walk rate is only 5%, which helps even that out. The Angels have fallen like a rock against lefties since the deadline, sitting 27th in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, 17th in ISO, and 28th in OBP. Irvin has been better against the right side of the plate with a .309 wOBA but his xFIP is higher with a lower K rate against that side as well. This is a matchup-based play and Irvin would do well to ditch his sinker. He’s throwing it 19.9% of the time but it gets pummeled for a .396 wOBA. His other three main pitches have a wOBA under .285 so if he can survive with his sinker, the low salary could pay off. I don’t feel a big need to move away from the ace tier, however. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.17 Stacks 

I’m looking for some format of a 4/3 stack with Red Sox and Astros tonight. Both teams are very cheap offensively, especially the Red Sox against lefty Keegan Akin and the Baltimore pitching staff. No hitter is over $5,000 and I think we set our bedrock with J.D. Martinez, Hunter Renfroe, Xander Bogaerts, Kike Hernandez, and Bobby Dalbec. Akin has a .361 wOBA against righties along with a 5.50 xFIP and a fly-ball rate over 45%. That’s not where you want to be against Boston and all of these hitters have a wOBA over .340 and ISO’s over .175. Akin’s fastball has a .340 wOBA and that’s his best pitch, so this is all system’s go for the Sox. 

What pieces you play from Boston depends on your pitching choices and who fits in with Houston. Madison Bumgarner takes the hill and the Astros are tough against lefties and they offer a minimum-priced punt (possibly). With Michael Brantley on the IL, Jose Siri could draw a start and would be wildly helpful to make everything work. We have our usual suspects like Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, and Yuli Gurriel. Bumgarner throws his cutter more than any other pitch and it’s given up nine homers and a .336 wOBA. Correa and Gurriel stand out the most against that pitch while Bregman is wildly underpriced. 

• White Sox against Taylor Hearn 
• Rays against Casey Mize 
• Brewers against Zach Davies 
• Cardinals against Vince Velasquez 
• Rockies against Josiah Gray 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.14

There are 12 games on the slate tonight with a returning ace and then a lot of very average options. I suspect that the Ace will be very popular but where we go after that could be interesting in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.14!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.14 – Main Targets

Ace Tier 

Gerrit Cole is reportedly full health coming off a hamstring injury in his last start and I’m going with that and firing him up tonight. The matchup is just too amazing on paper as the Orioles are ninth in K rate against righties overall and that has stayed stagnant through the season. He’s had some bumps in the road but he’s been mostly dominant through the year and after June, his K rate is has been about 35% or higher. The xFIP has been under 2.85 in every single month outside of that June disaster and the Yankees need every win they can get. Cole has a .237 wOBA, 2.47 FIP, and a 30.5% K rate against the right side of the plate and he should face seven. In his lone April start against this offense, Cole exceeded 43 DK points and he has that upside tonight.

Frankie Montas just continues to be on a tear with another 27 DK points in his last start and something has clicked in a major way across the last three months. The ERA is no higher than 2.63 and the K rate has been over 30%. The only poor aspect of this spot is the splitter for Montas has been his go-to pitch with a .187 wOBA, a 51.8% whiff rate, and78 strikeouts. The issue is he uses that pitch much more to lefties and he’s projected to only see four of them. That’s not awful but KC only whiffs 22% as a team. If we can go the double ace route, it would be Montas and Cole for me tonight. I think the splits won’t kill Montas but I do want to see the lineup.

It’s kind of annoying DK raised the salary by $800 for literally no reason, but I wrote this yesterday and everything still stands – Nathan Eovaldi is coming off shocking Brian and the best offense in baseball for almost 29 DK points. Eovaldi held the Rays down for seven innings of eight strikeout ball and now draws the Mariners. Seattle is still striking out over 24% of the time against righties since the deadline and has stayed in the bottom 10 in the other offensive categories. Eovaldi has been worse on the road but the xFIP in that split isn’t something that gives me major concerns. He’s been better against lefties as well with a 26% K rate and a .276 wOBA, in large part because his curve and splitter both have a whiff rate over 31% and a wOBA under .230. Seattle is 17th against the curve and this spot sets up the best on paper for Eovaldi. 

Honorable Mention 

If you’re ever going to play Marcus Stroman, this could be the spot since he whiffs righty hitters at a 23.6% rate. I’m of the mind that Stro is a better real-life pitcher than fantasy and St. Louis only strikes out 22.2% of the time as a team.

The Rest

We’re rolling anyone else into one category and the pickings are very, very slim. Some of the pitchers can be discarded on matchup alone like Luke Weaver, Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, and Jordan Lyles. That leads me to one option I think we can get behind in Touki Toussaint, who gets the Rockies on the road.

That has been a spot to attack all year long with Colorado whiffing over 26% of the time against righties on the road. On top of that, they are no higher than 28th in average, OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. The issue there is the metrics don’t exactly give us a lot to work with. His xFIP is 4.55 and the FIP is 5.47, neither of which is inspiring. The K rate is also nothing special at 21.9% with a swinging-strike rate at just 9.9%. Now, the good news is Toussaint has been better against righty hitters with a .310 wOBA, a 24.6% K rate, and a 3.56 xFIP. I don’t love the spot by any stretch so let’s see how chalky he is.

The solution to our issues could well be Eric Fedde, who just scorched the Marlins for 32 DK four starts ago. That makes some sense since the Marlins whiff at a top 10 rate and have struggled offensively all year. Fedde is sitting at a .317 wOBA against righties along with a 24.8% K rate, a 3.75 xFIP, and a 1.24 WHIP. These aren’t elite but the man is $6,900, he’s not going to be perfect. Miami is 23rd against the curve and that’s a big boost for Fedde because his curve has a .234 wOBA, 36.9% whiff rate, and a .234 wOBA. For this salary, I’m willing to take a shot.

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.14 Stacks 

The first stack to me is the Giants with a bullet point. Jake Arrieta has been a target all year and he gets destroyed by lefties with a .401 wOBA, 6.56 FIP, 1.96 WHIP, and just a 16.8% K rate. San Fran has lefties to spare and we’re starting with a bedrock of Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, and Mike Yastrzemski. The latter two smack righty sinkers, especially Crawford with a .308 ISO and .496 wOBA. Belt doesn’t hit the sinker as well but his ISO leads the squad at .324 and his wOBA is .391.

I’m willing to roll out Fedde because he can help me get access to the Yankees lineup in Baltimore against lefty Alexander Wells. He’s gotten smashed by righties with a .437 wOBA, 7.08 xFIP, and he’s walked more hitters than he’s struck out. All of his top three pitches have a wOBA over .395 and the Yanks are better off facing lefties. The nice thing is New York fits in nicely with the Giants. You can play Kyle Higashioka or Gary Sanchez at catcher, as they are only $100 apart and both have an ISO of .298. You can pick between Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton and I give the lean for Judge. A player like Gio Urshela can make an impact as well with a .174 ISO and a good matchup. We just need a punt or two to make things work.

• Phillies against Adrian Sampson
• White Sox against Packy Naughton
• Astros against Jordan Lyles
• Cubs against Kyle Gibson
• Dodgers against Luke Weaver

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.14 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.13

We have a seven-game slate tonight and some actual contests to play, but the pitching options are honestly in short supply. We’ll be discarding the tiers tonight because we’re just looking for options we want to play. With a challenging slate ahead, let’s dive right into the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.13 and figure it all out to find our paths to green screens!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.13 – Main Targets 

With the expectation that Clayton Kershaw will be on a very low pitch count, we can discard him quickly. You can’t pay the top salary for 60-70 pitches, even if it is Kershaw. In addition, the Dodgers want him for the postseason so if there’s any bump in the road he’ll be out quick. 

There is likely some sticker shock with Sandy Alcantara but this guy scored 42.7 DK points without the benefit of a CG or win bonus on DK, which is wildly impressive. No, I don’t expect him to whiff 14 hitters again but since August, his ERA has been under 3.20, the wOBA is at .275, and the K rate has skyrocketed over 30% from under 24% on the season. What is kind of fascinating is through that time, there hasn’t been a noteworthy shift in pitch mix or velocity. The first strike rate has been a little over the seasonal rate but the swinging-strike rate has been no lower than 11.1% in August and it’s mostly been far higher than that. 

I just wonder if he’s sequencing things differently. This is only the second time he’s pitched more than 43 innings in a season and he could just be getting better. My largest fears are the facts Washington has been second in OBP and at least league average in our other offensive categories with just a 21.3% K rate since the trade deadline. They are also projected for six lefties, and that has been the tougher matchup for Alcantara with a .299 wOBA. I’m not totally sold on him, but I’m not sure there are pitchers in a slam dunk spot tonight. 

Yu Darvish saw the velocity return and he generated a swinging-strike rate of 12.1% in his last start, halting the downward trend in his play for at least one start. In theory, this start should be a strong spot for him since it’s in San Francisco and he’s been better against lefties all year long. He’s faced them twice this year (both starts were in April, which is noteworthy) but scored 23 DK and 35 DK in those starts. Darvish has held lefties to a .281 wOBA, 1.00 WHIP, and a 27.7% K rate. Righties strike out at a higher rate but have a .310 wOBA on the year. There is some pretty strong trepidation left with Darvish, so I want to circle back to see how chalky he’ll be. There is some serious risk on both sides of the coin here. 

My favorite might be Nathan Eovaldi, coming off shocking Brian and the best offense in baseball for almost 29 DK points. Eovaldi held the Rays down for seven innings of eight strikeout ball and now draws the Mariners. Seattle is still striking out over 24% of the time against righties since the deadline and has stayed in the bottom 10 in the other offensive categories. Eovaldi has been worse on the road but the xFIP in that split isn’t something that gives me major concerns. He’s been better against lefties as well with a 26% K rate and a .276 wOBA, in large part because his curve and splitter both have a whiff rate over 31% and a wOBA under .230. Seattle is 17th against the curve and this spot sets up the best on paper for Eovaldi. 

We’re only getting riskier as we press on and I’m going to talk about something we almost never do – attack the Dodgers lineup. Listen, the offense is wildly talented and they can hang a crooked number on anyone. Understand what you’re doing if you take this route and it’s risking negative DK points but Zac Gallen is interesting on this slate. Since August 1st, the Dodgers are – 

30th in average 

24th in OBP

26th in slugging

25th in OPS

17th in average

24th in wOBA

21st in wRC+, and they have whiffed 24.2% of the time. Gallen can struggle with the long ball a little bit but his K rate jumps up to 28.8% at home to go with a 3.52 xFIP. Only three of the projected Dodgers starters have an ISO over .172 against righties and this is interesting as well – the Dodgers are 17th against the slider. Gallen hasn’t thrown it a ton but when he has, it has gotten annihilated for a .577 ISO and an average distance of 358 feet. If he can survive the slider against this offense…..we could see 20 DK against an offense the field will avoid (and generally would be right to do so). I believe these are going to be the only pitchers I look at today. I flirted with A.J. Alexy but his 0.00 ERA and 4.94 xFIP don’t exactly match, and the fly-ball rate over 66% is scary as all get out against the Astros. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.13 Stacks 

I know Boston has been slumping a bit but they should not be this cheap against Logan Gilbert, who has had some issues preventing runs in the majors. He’s leaning on the fastball a ton and Boston is 12th against the pitch while Xander Bogaerts, Hunter Renfroe, Rafael Devers, Kike Hernandez, and Alex Verdugo all hammer fastballs. Add in Kyle Schwarber and both he and Bogaerts are inside the top 20 against fastballs this season. All of those players are over a .320 wOBA and a .175 ISO on the season as well. I’m looking at Bogaerts, Renfroe, and Verdugo to start this stack off as Gilbert is worse against righties and then possibly mixing in Schwarber or Devers. 

I might well wind up just playing Hernandez at second base because I also want a piece of the Cardinals against Rich Hill. The Mets are coming off a majorly emotional series against the Yankees and I could see a let-down spot here. St. Louis is first in ISO against lefties and it starts with Tyler O’Neill, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado. They all have at least a .370 wOBA and an ISO of .236 and O’Neill leads with a .319 ISO himself. The pitch that gets him in trouble is his fastball as well with a .381 wOBA and 13 home runs given up. Nado has been awful against fastballs this season but I’m going to overlook that for the splits while Goldy and O’Neill are two of their best options against that pitch. Goldschmidt is 11th in baseball and he’s going yard tonight. As Brian says, wait for the notification and book it. 

• Padres against Jose Quintana/Giants bullpen 
• Rays against Alek Manoah (not a full stack in my eyes)
• Jays against Drew Rasmussen
• Marlins against Paolo Espino 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.13 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.11

We have a split slate just like normal on Saturday and the afternoon might be a little unconventional. The evening is a little bit more straightforward and what we normally talk about so let’s get rolling in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10 to talk about it all! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.11 

Afternoon 

So, I was very close to taking the Brian approach and telling you guys this is a slate you should skip. Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler both take the mound, and we’re always interested. They both have strong matchups but past those two pitchers…wow, it gets bad quickly. What catches my eye though is we have an incredibly cheap (for them) offense in the Toronto Blue Jays. I get that their game is a doubleheader and we generally avoid that but no batter for the Jays is over $4,900. I’m ready to take my chances with seven guaranteed innings in Baltimore and use cheap hitters like Josh Lowe of Tampa and jam as many Jays and cheap Rays that I can get with the ace pair. It’s the only path I’d consider, or I would skip this slate entirely (which is just smart and disciplined if you don’t like a slate). 

Evening 

We dodged the bad start from Walker Buehler since he pitched on Sunday night baseball last time out and there’s no real reason to treat that as anything but a bump in the road. The Padres aren’t a great matchup but Buehler just went 6.2 IP with one unearned run and eight strikeouts. There is almost nothing to pick on for Buehler because the wOBA against each side of the plate is under .270, the K rate is at least 24.7%, and the WHIP is under 1.10 as well. His swinging-strike rate is 11.5% and even with a fastball-heavy approach, Buehler is one of the better options on the evening slate. The fact he’s only $9,400 likely leaves him the chalkiest as well. 

This is going to be the sixth time Charlie Morton has squared off against the Marlins and frankly, it’s been a mixed bag of results for him. In three of those starts he’s scored under 16 DK but in the past two, he’s scored over 28 DK. I think folks are going to weigh the past two starts far more and I can’t really argue with that. Ground Chuck is up to a 28.6% K rate overall with a 49% ground ball rate, a major combo. The smallest concerns are Morton has been a little worse against righties with a .277 wOBA and the K rate falls to 25.9%. The good news is Miami is projected to be more lefty-heavy than normal with four of each handedness. If that holds, it’s going to be very hard to not play Morton as Miami is top-five in K rate against righty pitching. I would be surprised if Buehler/Morton is not the stone chalk tonight and I’m fine rolling with it. 

There’s always some trepidation in playing Luis Castillo and he was very good in the last start after displaying a .341 wOBA and 4.58 ERA in August. The K rate has been over 25% since the start of June so there is still some upside potential. A concern would be the Cardinals are strong against the changeup at seventh but Castillo is also better against righties with a 3.10 xFIP and a .311 wOBA on the year, and that’s with a .311 BABIP. In his last three starts against the Cards, he’s scored at least 19 DK with a total of 22 strikeouts. On a slate with limited options, we’re likely spending more than normal on pitching. 

Lastly, we’re looking at Luis Garcia and he can be tough to get a bead on. The K rate is 28.5% but he hasn’t exceeded six strikeouts more than twice since the start of August. That’s not exactly ideal and the story with Garcia is the same as it usually is. If he can survive his fastball being rather hittable with a .386 wOBA, the rest of his pitch mix (about 54% worth of his pitches) are outstanding. With the Angels leaning more righty-heavy, that brings the cutter/slider mix into play heavier than anything else. They both have a whiff rate over 43% and a wOBA under .225, which are both very appealing. If the field reacts how I would think, Garcia is going to be very unpopular since he’s the highest salary on the slate. 

I don’t think we need to go this low but Michael Pineda is in play, in theory. I would still have some concerns about his pitch count because he only threw 44 pitches the last time out (and the win goosed his 15 DK points) but if he could hit 60 pitches at $5,400…I could see it. I just don’t think we need to take that chance with Morton sitting there at $8,000 with a clear higher ceiling. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10 Stacks 

We’re heading out West and to an unusual spot as I think Seattle is in a great spot tonight. First, they draw Humberto Castellanos and lefties have had his number so far through 54 batters faced. They have a .354 wOBA, 5.25 xFIP, and a fly-ball rate of 45.9%. He’s using the fastball almost 50% of the time and it’s giving up a .423 wOBA and .263 ISO. J.P Crawford, Kyle Seager, Abraham Toro, and even Jarred Kelenic has an ISO over .215 against that pitch except for Crawford. They are all also over a .300 wOBA against righties on the year and a bonus is Arizona has the highest bullpen WHIP, xFIP, the sixth-highest HR/9, and only a 19% K rate. 

I’m not exactly sure why the White Sox are so cheap, but I’m not really complaining. They are slated to draw farmhand Connor Seabold, a 25-year old righty with a suspect profile. He’s sported a 4.93 xFIP and 50.5% fly-ball rate through 41.2 IP in AAA and that’s flat out going to get him beat up against this White Sox lineup. We can go right down the middle with power hitters like Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, and Luis Robert who all have at least a .343 wOBA and a .199 ISO against righty pitching. The fact no player of that trio is above $4,600 makes them easy to fit with anyone else. 

• Dodgers against Chris Paddack 
• Twin against Brady Singer
• Reds lefties against Miles Mikolas 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.11 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10

Welcome to the Friday edition of MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10 and we have some fascinating options along with one stone-cold chalk option up top. I’m not sure I understand some of the prices here so let’s get to work and find our paths to green screens! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

I’m not sure what Robbie Ray has to do to get priced over $11,000. He’s been borderline untouchable lately with at least 32.8 DK in the past four starts and over 20 DK in eight of the past 10. Since the calendar has flipped to July, his ERA has been under 2.00, the wOBA has been under .265, the K rate has been above 32%, and the WHIP has been under 0.95. It’s just wild to think about how far Ray has come this season and while Baltimore is better against lefties, you have to favor Ray here. He just torched this lineup for 32 DK two starts ago, and it’s hard to not just lock him in with one of the highest ceilings on the slate. 

One of the reasons I’m just locking Ray in is because the majority of the Ace Tier is not all that appealing. Carlos Rodon likely won’t throw more than about 60-70 pitches, Tyler Mahle is wildly expensive and has been heavily reverse-splits this season, Joe Musgrove faces a healthy Dodger team…It’s not great. Even if we look at Jordan Montgomery, his K rate was under 20% in August across 20.2 IP. There are two in the running to possibly go with the double Ace route, but I would not use these pitchers instead of Ray. 

Julio Urias gets a scary spot in perception, but the reality doesn’t exactly match. The Padres have not figured out lefties this year as they rank 25th in wRC+, 24th in wOBA, 28th (!) in ISO, 24th in OPS, 27th in slugging, and 12th in OBP. The K rate is only 22.2% but if it was not for the uniform they wear, we’d love Urias against an offense that ranked this poorly. He’s using the curve about 34% of the time and has a .187 wOBA with it along with 63 strikeouts. The Padres are fourth against the curve this year so there’s certainly some level of danger here, but he could be a stealthy late-night hammer. 

Similar to Urias, Framber Valdez draws a very advantageous matchup in the Angels. Since the start of August, they are 24th or worse in OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. They do come up to 16th in ISO but I’m fine with that given the rest of the metrics. As we always talk about with Valdez, the K rate is mediocre at 22% but the ground ball rate is spectacular at 69.9%. The Angels are third in ground ball rate against lefties at 47.2% and Valdez has a wOBA under .290 against both sides of the plate. It should help a little bit that he whiffs lefties at a 31.8% rate and LA is projected to have three in the lineup. They also rank 25th against the curve and that has been the go-to pitch for Valdez this season with 80 strikeouts and a .179 wOBA. 

Mid-Range/Punt 

I’ll be honest, I’m not super interested in the mid-range tonight. Shohei Ohtani is interesting but the Houston offense doesn’t strike out a ton at just 20.2%. Now, they should have six righties projected in the lineup and that’s generally been a boom spot for Ohtani. He’s crushing righties this season with a .226 wOBA, 2.04 FIP, 0.88 WHIP, and a 34.7% K rate. I’m not going to be shocked if he puts up 20 DK, but I’m not sure we have to take the risk against a good offense. 

The one pitcher that stands out to me is Ian Anderson. He’s had a tough year, only pitching 104.2 innings with various injuries. However, when he’s been on the mound he’s been mostly strong with a FIP/xFIP combo of 3.98/4.00. That’s not spectacular but it’s not terrible by any stretch, especially when the K rate is 22.2%. He’s keeping the ball out of the air with a 50.2% ground ball rate and the swinging-strike rate is perfectly acceptable as well at 11.4%. His two main pitches are the four-seam and changeup, both of which have a wOBA under .300 and the change has a 34.1% whiff rate. Miami is 21st against the change and 29th against the fastball, a big plus for Anderson. The wOBA against righties is a bit worse, but the xFIP is almost identical and the K rate, walk rate, and hard-hit rates are all in line. The largest difference is the BABIP is .297 against righties compared to .250 against lefties. The bottom line is you don’t need dominance from Anderson at this salary and Miami has been an offense to target all year. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10 Stacks 

I’m starting in a weird spot because we’re going to talk about the Rays in the second part, and I know Brain is going there too (shocker). We don’t do this often but let’s talk about the Rockies on the road. They start with a lefty in Bailey Falter, but he may not be in the start for super long since he’s been a reliever. Even still, C.J. Cron and Brendan Rodgers hammer lefties with wOBA’s over .400 and ISO’s over .275 against lefties. Falter is also throwing a sinker 44% of the time and Rodgers sits at a .500 ISO while Cron is sitting at .414. Garrett Hampson doesn’t hit the lefty sinker well but has a .363 wOBA and 16 stolen bases on the year. He’s a super cheap add and the Philly bullpen is fourth in HR/9 on the season. 

Alright, the main event is once again the Rays and how could they not be? Wander Franco, Mike Zunino, Manuel Margot, Nelson Cruz, and Yandy Diaz are sitting at least at a .315 wOBA and the top two just destroy lefties in a major way. Boyd has a 4.79 xFIP and the K rate is only 19.9%. The xFIP climbs over 5.00 against righties and the fly-ball rate is almost 45%. The Detroit bullpen is 12th in HR/9, seventh in ERA, and sixth in xFIP. 

• Twins against Daniel Lynch
• Blue Jays against Chris Ellis
• Reds against Jon Lester 
• Brewers against Eli Morgan

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.8

We get another nine-game slate but the pitching options are simply not that great. Sure, we have pitchers that are priced like they are going to be awesome but that could be a lot to ask. Let’s talk about them and pitchers that we might actually like in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.8 so we can find our path to green screens! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.8 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

Some pitchers are priced like aces but I will not look twice at three of them. Freddy Peralta only made it two innings in his last start and threw under 55 pitches, so I can’t imagine we get more than 75 or so tonight. That is frankly not enough to pay $10,200 for and I’ll move on quickly. It wouldn’t help that Philly is projected for playing four lefties. 

The metrics don’t look poor for Nathan Eovaldi as he’s better against lefties with a .281 wOBA, 2.39 FIP, and a 25.4% K rate. One of the primary reasons is his curveball since it has a .207 wOBA and he uses that way more against the left side. The issues are the Rays are the Rays, one of the best offenses in baseball. The other scary part is they ranked fifth against the curve, so Eovaldi is out for me. 

Yu Darvish hasn’t been right in a while. Since the start of July, his ERA has been over 6.32 across 44 IP. The wOBA has been at least .309 and while the xFIP says he’s been unlucky over that period, you can’t possibly trust him right now. The Angels aren’t an elite offense but I am not interested myself. 

I feel like Shane McClanahan is going to be the chalk. It didn’t go super well the last time out against Boston, but he struck out eight and the young lefty isn’t going to give up eight hits and four runs very often. His K rate is 28% and the FIP/xFIP combo is under 3.30 for each metric. The swinging-strike rate is elite at 15.3% and that would rank fifth if he qualified. Boston is a strong offense against lefties overall but are still missing a main cog in Xander Bogaerts. With a whiff rate over 40% on all three of his pitches that isn’t the fastball, the salary doesn’t match the potential even with some risk baked in. 

Frankie Montas has been on a tear and even against a tough offense, I’m still considering him. He is projected to face five lefties and that would actually work out for Montas by his splits. His K rate is 29.8% against that side of the plate and the FIP is down to 3.18. The White Sox are third in ground ball rate and that would help out as well, especially in Oakland. He uses that splitter far more against lefties and it has a .207 wOBA and a 51.5% whiff rate with 76 strikeouts. The White Sox are striking out about 23% of the time and Montas can do some damage. 

I honestly don’t see much past this. Alek Manoah is closest but it’s still the Yankees in New York. They are 13th against the slider which is sort of interesting and I just don’t love the instability that Manoah brings. He does have upside in theory since the Yankees are whiffing almost 25% of the time but I’d rather just pitch Montas in Oakland. A pitcher like Vladimir Gutierrez is starting to pitch to his xFIP well over 5.00 and a punt like Andre Jackson has a 1.09 ERA but an xFIP over 5.00 as well with little strikeout upside so far in the majors. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.8 Stacks 

Dallas Keuchel has been getting blistered since the start of July, with an ERA well over 6.00 and a wOBA over .350, in addition to a K rate under 12% and a FIP over 6.00. Starling Marte, Mark Canha, Josh Harrison, and Jed Lowrie are all over a .300 wOBA and .120 ISO against lefties so far this year. They also have an ISO over .175 against the sinker, which is used 33% by Keuchel. Regardless of what pitch he’s throwing, it’s not working and the A’s should continue to hammer him. 

Since it looks like a day to spend on pitching, we need a cheap stack and Baltimore fits perfectly with Oakland and get lefty Mike Minor. He has a 1.67 HR/9 against the right side of the plate and a 42.4% fly-ball rate. My main hitters are looking like Pedro Severino, Austin Hays, and Ryan Mountcastle. The latter two have a hard-hit rate over 55% against lefty fastballs and Minor throws it 44% of the time with a 312-foot average distance. Severino is rocking the best ISO on the team against that pitch at .329 and all of them are over a .185 ISO against lefties overall. 

• Rays against Eovaldi 
• Cubs against Gutierrez 
• Braves against Sean Nolin 
• Royals against Matt Harvey 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.8 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.7

We’ve got 12 games on tap for tonight and the slate is pretty interesting. Most of the high-end ace pitchers are in terrible spots, but most of the mid-range plays are not super appealing either. It could be a tough road to walk down for the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.7 but that doesn’t mean we can’t find some gems to lead us to green! 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.7 – Main Targets 

Ace Tier 

We have four players in that tier based on salary but there are really only two options in my eyes. I frankly won’t have exposure to Aaron Nola or Logan Webb. Nola is wildly unpredictable and he’s on the road, which has led to some terrible results this year. Webb has been outstanding but I’m not willing to pay $9,500 in Coors. The strikeout upside is capped too much for my liking. 

This may sound nonsensical, but I’m still somewhat interested in Gerrit Cole. In his last start, he was under $10,000 and very chalky and DK noticed and jacked up the price to nearly $12,000. Toronto is a nasty matchup with a 17.7% K rate since August first, which is the best mark in the league. They also are top 10 across the board in our offensive categories and you know what? That doesn’t mean Cole can’t walk out there and shove for seven innings while being very unpopular. Since the start of August, Cole has sported an ERA under 1.00, a wOBA under .220, a K rate over 35%, and a FIP/xFIP combo under 1.00 and 2.85. He’s scored at least 19 DK in three starts against this team and he’s an intriguing GPP option. 

You’re going to have to play Blake Snell in cash and he’s been phenomenal lately. He went nuts in August with a 1.72 ERA, a .227 wOBA, a 38.8% K rate, and an xFIP under 2.95. The Angels are fifth in ISO and top 10 in other offensive categories while striking out under 22% of the time, but Snell is pitching like the ace he’s capable of being. The slider and curve both have a whiff rate over 45% and the slider sports a .231 wOBA on the season. The Angels are fourth against the slider and if we’re being honest, there are some red flags here. If Snell wasn’t in unbelievable form, I’d be fading. He’s pitching SO well though that I’m willing to ride with him at home in this spot where the Angels lose the DH. 

Mid-Range 

The chalk option is going to be Zac Gallen and it’s not exactly hard to see why. The field has attacked Texas a ton lately and Gallen has a 26.7% K rate on the season through 91.1 IP. It has to be pointed out that his wOBA against each side of the plate is at least .319 and righties are a mixed bag. He is projected to face five of them and while he does have a 30.1% K rate, the FIP is scary at 5.63. His WHIP against lefties is 1.48 so while the Texas lineup isn’t good, there are some paths to failure for Gallen as well. The secondary stuff has swing and miss ability since his three pitches outside his four-seam have a whiff rate over 30%. I think we have enough options we can go different routes in GPP, but cash is more than fine. 

One pitcher that I think could be an interesting pivot is Wade Miley. The Cubs lead the league in K rate against lefties since August 1st at 29.7%, more than 3% more than Miami in second place. There is a risk here because Chicago is also top 10 in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ in that same time period and they are only 14th in ground ball rate. Miley generates a 49.6% ground ball rate and only gets hit hard at a 26.1% rate. Chicago can use seven righties out of eight hitters and that’s not totally ideal with a 17.4% K rate against that side to go with an xFIP over 4.00. You’d be banking on ground balls and the Cubs lineup just not being that good, which is a chance worth taking against the Gallen chalk. 

If you wanted to climb the salary ladder, Max Fried has to be in the discussion as well. He’s hit his stride since August started with a wOBA under .286, a K rate over 24%, and an xFIP under 2.80. Washington looks like a nasty matchup for a lefty pitcher and they do still have some lefty-killers, but the lineup is far different than it has been through part of this year. The curveball is his main strikeout weapon with 57 on the season, a .207 wOBA, and a 35.2% whiff rate. Washington is 25th against that pitch and they are third in ground ball rate since the deadline at 46.7%. They are down to 13th in slugging, wRC+ OPS, and 17th in ISO over that same time period. Fried has some definitive upside. 

Punt Tier 

There is one arm that somewhat catches my eye, even though there is some serious risk. Jackson Kowar is a 24-year old righty making his third start for the Royals and his last one was his best run. He’s the fourth-ranked prospect in the Royals system and generated a 13.5% swinging-strike rate in the least start, striking out six hitters. So far the metrics frankly don’t look great. Even against righties, the hard-hit rate is 43.5% and a .400 wOBA with a 5.07 xFIP. That is skewed heavily by his previous starts where he got smacked, so I don’t believe this is representative of his ability. Baltimore is 24th against the changeup and fastball, and those have been the two main pitches for Kowar thus far. He sported a 34% K rate in the minors this year so I think we can start seeing that upside tonight. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.7 Stacks 

I want to thank DK for making the Dodgers so cheap because it’s go time with that lineup tonight. J.A. Happ has gotten blistered this season and LA is not the lineup to stop the bleeding. Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Mookie Betts, Chris Taylor, and even lefties like Corey Seager and Max Muncy are ALL over a .350 wOBA and .210 ISO against lefties. That’s just a minimum, with many of those hitters exceeding those marks. That’s not even talking about a punt like Albert Pujols if he plays and they are all over a .212 ISO against lefty fastballs, which Happ throws almost 40% of the time. 

The optimal approach is the Gallen/Snell pairing with Giants hitters in Coors, and that’s more than understandable. However, that approach makes it harder to do damage at the top of a GPP so let’s talk about a different path. We can rock the Snell/Kowar pair and still spend big on hitters from the Padres lineup since they face lefty Packy Naughton. The main three that correlates well with the Dodgers are Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, and Wil Myers. They all sit over a .333 wOBA and a .180 ISO against lefties, and Naughton’s changeup is used 43% with a 338-foot average distance. 

• Giants vs Chi Chi Gonzalez
• Yankees against Steven Matz 
• Royals against Alexander Wells
• D-Backs against Spencer Howard/Jordan Lyles 
• Mariners against Jake Odorizzi 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.7 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!