Starting Rotation 4.6
Thank goodness we have some real options tonight, it’s only the fifth day of the season. We have eight games but there are four legitimate ace-caliber pitchers on the slate and none are over $10,000 on DK. It certainly looks like a double-ace kind of night at my first glance but let’s dig into the Starting Rotation 4.6 and see what we find!
Note – We’re starting to use pitch data from this season. It’s still a very small sample but we need to start migrating to this season. Also, all images are from baseballsavant.com.
Starting Rotation 4.6 – Cash Picks
Lucas Giolito ($9,300 DK/$9,600 FD)
I think the righty for the White Sox might well be the best bang for your buck on both sites tonight. He’s the SP3 in terms of salary but the upside is no different than anyone else. We’re going to start using the 2021 stats and by those numbers, Seattle doesn’t look like a great matchup. They’ve only whiffed 23.1% of the time and are top-five in ISO against righties so far. That’s fine but Giolito is inside the top 10-12 pitchers in baseball.
The Angels are a tough team to whiff as well but he struck out 40% in his first start and that’s after a 33.7% rate last year. The CSW (called+swinging strike rate) in the first game was 34.5% which is good news for where Giolito was in his first turn. The Mariners were a 24% K rate team last year and that’s plenty for Giolito to exploit. Even the splits from 2020 are excellent for Giolito. He held RHH to a .243 wOBA and stuck out LHH slightly more at a 34.7% rate compared to 32.3% for RHH. It’s hard not to love him tonight.
Tyler Glasnow ($9,100 DK/$10,700 FD)
It’s a day that ends in Y which means I’m going to write up Glasnow. I will get this out of the way that I’d probably just play Yu Darvish on FD since he’s cheaper. Glasnow being the SP1 in terms of salary on that site doesn’t make the most sense. On DK, he’s the SP4 and I’m all over that. His first start of the season was fascinating. Glasnow developed a slider in the offseason and he threw it more than his curve, which surprised me. I assumed the slider would be just to keep hitters off-balance and maybe that will be the case. It could have been just to get the feel for it. It worked as he only gave up one hit across six innings and he whiffed six hitters on under 80 pitches. The leash should be longer tonight and I’m very excited about it.
Boston’s offense woke up a little bit last night but that’s not a huge concern to me. Glasnow had a 37.7% CSW in the first turn through the rotation and the slider generated a 41.7% whiff rate on the 26times he threw it. If the slider is a weapon and not just a “third pitch”, the ceiling for Glasnow is massive. Boston has whiffed almost 24% of the time so far and even with Wacha struggling last night, he struck out six hitters through five innings.
Clayton Kershaw ($9,500 DK/$9,000 FD)
Oakland only has 14 at-bats to lefties this season coming into Monday, so we’re still using 2020 stats for the A’s offense. Yes, Kershaw didn’t pitch that well in Coors Field but I’m not sure I care about that even a little bit. Going into Oakland is a pretty massive upgrade for the pitching environment and we’re still talking Kershaw here. He used the slider a ton in the first turn but he did lean on it as his primary pitch last year as well. In 2020, Oakland whiffed 24.2% of the time against lefties and finished no better than 20th in average, OBP, OPS, slugging, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. They were a very poor offense against this handedness, not to mention not a single current hitter had a FanGraphs rating above 0.4 on the slider last year. I’ll be curious to see where the popularity lands but Kershaw is still an excellent option tonight.
Honorable Mention – I’m not planning on using any pitcher outside of the top four in salary in cash this evening.
Starting Rotation 4.6 – GPP Picks
Yu Darvish ($10,000 DK/$10,200 FD)
The ranking for the Giants against the cutter is interesting because they were 26th last season. That could be the small sample size breaking through and it’s not a factor that leaves me off Darvish. I have him in the GPP section simply because he’s the most expensive on DK and the field may not find the need to go there with three cheaper options. Likewise, on FD, they could just flock to Giolito. That does NOT mean that Darvish is not a great choice on his own. We talked last time that the D-Backs were not the best possible spot for him and they went out and proved it. Darvish struggled a bit but the BABIP from that game was also .429. He was due regression from the 2020 campaign but that’s obviously extreme.
Darvish still struck out 26.1% of the hitters he faced. My biggest “fear” is there are five lefties projected for the eight lineup spots. Darvish was slightly worse to that side of the plate last year with a .261 wOBA allowed and only a 26.1% K rate. He whiffed 39.8% of the righties he faced, so the Giants lineup may not give him the upside you want when he’s the highest-priced option on the board for DK. Let’s see what’s projected but that is the main reason I’d go just GPP for Darvish and lean towards the other three ahead of him.
Freddy Peralta ($7,600 DK/$6,400 FD)
I’m highlighting something a little different for Peralta. He’s worked out of the bullpen once this year for two innings and promptly struck out six hitters. Now, he also walked three and threw over 50 pitches in two innings of work but that’s why he’s in the GPP section. What catches my eye is the fastball velocity. It’s up about two MPH over last season and he threw the curveball more as well. Those changes could be to his benefit because throwing a fastball almost 75% of the time is tough to survive on. Peralta has always been a total dart throw for consistency but he has a career 31.5% K rate over 194.2 IP.
What could be the key factor here is the Cubs have been putrid against the fastball since the start of last season. They finished 2020 ranked 25th against that pitch and that was with Jason Kipnis having a 4.4 rating. No other current hitter other than Ian Happ is above 0.4. This season, the Cubbies have risen…to 21st. They only have one player over a 1.0 mark early and it’s Jason Heyward. If Peralta has any version of control, he could make some noise and has serious strikeout upside. The control isn’t guaranteed so the range of outcomes is quite wide.
Honorable Mention – I really wanted to use James Paxton as he was throwing fire in the spring but a lefty pitcher against the White Sox is basically a no-fly for me. If you play 20 lineups or more, that would make more sense.
Gas Can To Attack – We have Coors back on the slate so that’s going to get plenty of attention and I think there’s a pretty clear path to stack Giolito/Glasnow at pitcher and play at least five Coors hitters. German Marquez toes the rubber for the Rockies and he’ll be opposed by Luke Weaver. Marquez in his career has a 5.06 ERA at home with a .350 wOBA and .307 average given up to LHH. That side of the plate has always been an issue and my biggest focus is Ketel Marte.
He’s started 9-16 on the season with two bombs and is not even $5,000 yet. He really struggled last season but in 2019, Marte posted a .404 wOBA and .250 ISO with just a 14.1% K rate to righty pitching. We can kick in bats like David Peralta and Josh Rojas as they are both under $4,000. Rojas has been leading off for the D-Backs and maybe the thin air gets him moving a little. Peralta has had two straight seasons posting roughly a .350 wOBA and about .150 ISO against righties, positioned in the five-hole most likely.
For the Rockies, my two main hitters are Charlie Blackmon and Ryan McMahon. Both hitters had average years last year but in 2019, both hammered righties at home. Chuck Nasty had a massive .476 wOBA, .359 ISO, and a 1.187 OPS while McMahon sat at a .353, .242, and .849 mark respectively. Lefties demolished Weaver last year with a wOBA over .400 and a 2.63 HR/9. That latter number actually got worse on the road, so Coors isn’t where he wants to go. That setup still leaves you with $3,500 with catcher, first base, and third base to fill. It’s intriguing in GPP and a Blackmon/Marte combo is likely a cash game lean for me.
Starting Rotation 4.6 Betting Section
Free Strikeout Prop
TBD
Record – 2-3
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