MLB DFS GPP

Starting Rotation 5.21

Every single team is in action tonight but that does not mean we have an overwhelming amount of options. The good news is we do have some of the more fantasy-friendly pitchers in baseball on the mound, but some of them draw pretty tough spots. There is almost certainly going to be a clear ace option for cash games but let’s talk about who else is on the board for Starting Rotation 5.21! 

Starting Rotation 5.21 – Main Targets 

Trevor Bauer 

The price is high for Bauer but it is deserved. He’s coming off a 38.6 DK score game and among the ace-level pitchers, he draws the easiest matchup. Yes, the Giants are first against his cutter and they just came off flirting with 20 runs but Bauer is different than the Reds pitchers. Bauer also uses the four-seam a lot more than the cuter to lefties at a 253 to 91 ratio. With the Giants typically playing five lefties, that’s not insignificant. The wOBA given up heavily favors the four-seam as well at .188 to .327 and it carries a 24.8% whiff rate. Overall, the 35.5% K rate is seventh in the league and that’s part of the reason he is so expensive. 

The 47.5% fly-ball rate finds a nice home in San Francisco and his fastball is the highest-rated pitch in baseball on the FanGraphs rating scale. Both sides of the plater are under a .250 wOBA so even though lefties hit Bauer a little bit more, it’s not something to worry a lot about. Bauer also has a lower K rate to lefties at 31.4% but San Francisco is rotating around the top-three in K rate to righties. Given the options around him, I expect Bauer to be the cash option but in GPP it gets far more interesting. 

Tyler Glasnow 

The Blue Jays have the best game against Glasnow of the year with five runs but they still whiffed 10 times and Glasnow scored 19.3 DK even with allowing those runs. Sure, 19 DK isn’t what we’re looking for at this salary but Glasnow isn’t super likely to give up five runs in one inning again. The swinging-strike rate of 16.8%, CSW of 34.7%, and 38.6% K rate all reside in the top-four in the majors, so even if he’s giving up 2-3 runs per start, the K rate does all the work to make up for it. 

Making this spot slightly better is the fact Glasnow is slightly less susceptible to power from righty hitters with just a 0.90 HR/9 and both sides of the plate are under a .245 wOBA and a 2.95 xFIP. The four-seam/curve mix account for all but nine of his 85 strikeouts on the season and both the slider and curve have whiff rates over 43%. I’ll be interested to see where the field goes and what they do with Glasnow tonight. If he’s not that popular, that will be fairly exciting. 

Marcus Stroman 

It can be a little difficult to get Stroman right since he’s not normally the pitcher we chase. I’m not happy with the price but pitching, in general, is very pricey tonight. Stroman checks in in part due to matchup since the Marlins strike out 26.7% of the time to righty pitching. They are also third in ground ball rate at 47.2% and that’s something that Stroman knows how to do. He ranks sixth overall in ground ball rate at 54% and the K rate is 18.5%. While that’s not exactly what we want, his swinging-strike rate is still 11.6% and that would be a career-best. The O-contact rate is up from last season’s 61.5% to 64.1% and that makes me believe those two metrics point to a higher K upside. 

Both sides of the plate are under .280 in wOBA and almost everything is static as far as the splits go. The K rate, xFIP, WHIP, and average are very similar no matter which side a hitter resides on. All of his pitches that aren’t the sinker boast a whiff rate of at least 30.6% and none of the top three pitchers are over a .270 wOBA allowed. The value pitching gets pretty scary tonight so Stroman needs to be in play in what rates as a great spot for him. 

Mike Minor

Minor’s surface stats look roundly awful so far, but there are very strong reasons to play him tonight. For one, he has flashed some upside with two starts over 27 DK and one of those starts came against this very Tigers offense. Now, Detroit hasn’t been near as poor lately and we have to note that. Even if you use just the stats from May, they are still having issues against lefty pitchers. Detroit is 29th in ISO, 18th in OPS, 23rd in slugging, and 16th in wOBA with a K rate of almost 29%. That’s a far cry from the dead last position they held but it’s still a spot to go after with a lefty pitcher that has a 24.4% K rate. 

Minor has an ERA over 5.00 but the xFIP is down to 4.54 and that is more palatable. His hard-hit rate is 28.2% to go along with a 10.2% swinging-strike rate and a 27.7% CSW. What I like is the Tigers will likely counter Minor with eight righty hitters. Not only does Minor hold them to a .297 wOBA and an OPS under .680, but that means his curveball will be heavily in play. Minor uses it almost only to righty hitters and it has the most strikeouts of any pitch at 16, the highest whiff rate at 32.1%, and a .188 wOBA. It’s still the fourth pitch but with Detroit ranking so poorly against it, we can see the upside under $8,000. 

Tyler Anderson 

To the surprise of really nobody, Atlanta has also started to pick it up against lefties. The difference is they are wildly more talented than the Tigers so this spot is absolutely scary. Keep in mind that Anderson has talked through the fire before against the Cubs and Padres. So far, Anderson has racked up a 23.5% K rate and a 41.6% ground ball rate, both strong metrics for this salary range. The swinging-strike rate is up to 12.9% and his changeup has been a big reason why. While the four-seam/cutter mix has accounted for 33 strikeouts, the change has been the best pitch for results at a .194 wOBA, .174 average, and a 31.4% whiff rate. 

Atlanta is sporting a K rate of over 25% since the start of May which is plenty to take advantage of. Anderson has kept the ERA, FIP, and xFIP all below 3.95 and he’s been at his best to righty hitters. The likely lineup for Atlanta will feature seven righties plus the pitcher spot and Anderson has a 25.9% K rate and a .278 wOBA to that side of the plate. It will be far from easy, but the path for Anderson to have success is there tonight. 

Anthony Kay

I will admit that this play is not for everyone and is very risky. Kay sure looks like a pitcher that has had just dreadful luck so far and while the Rays are the Win Daily Official Lineup when they face righty pitching, the script flips when it’s a lefty. Using the same filter from the start of May, Tampa leads in K rate at 34.5% and is not higher than 24th in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, or wRC+. They do still have power with the 11th-best ISO but the K rate makes it worth gambling. Kay is sitting at 25.8% through 13.2 IP so far and his advanced metrics paint a much better picture than the 7.24 ERA. 

The strand rate is only 56.6% and the HR/FB rate is over 18%. His xFIP is 4.16 and his FIP is still 4.67, which is fine at $5,900. With a BABIP of .371, you have to assume things even out and this is where the small sample size would be noteworthy. The lefty for the Jays has only given up one barrel so far and has a 10.3% swinging-strike rate. The wOBA to righties is only .308 and all his pitches have a whiff rate over 22% thus far. He’s thrown close to 80 pitches a couple of times, so if everything goes well you can see five innings, a run or two, and possibly 5-6 strikeouts with Tampa on the other end. 

Honorable Mention – Ian Anderson, Carlos Rodon, and Martin Perez are all in play but seem very expensive. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.20

We get the split slates on Thursday like normal but the options are pretty tough through the day. I guess we can’t be surprised since we had so many great options on Wednesday, but it’s still not the most fun day ever for pitching on paper. Let’s get into Starting Rotation 5.20 and discuss exactly who we need to be targeting through the day to get our lineups into the green!

Starting Rotation 5.20 – Early Slate 

Tyler Mahle 

We don’t exactly have a ton of options but Mahle would be a target regardless of the size of the slate. Not only does he have a K rate of 29.5% but the Giants are whiffing at a 28.5% rate to righties, which has taken over the lead in the majors. The Giants will typically play at least five lefties in their lineup as well and that’s going to help Mahle in a big way. He’s held lefties down to a .251 wOBA, a 0.75 HR/9, and a 32.3% K rate. Righties have hit him far more with a .372 wOBA but it’s important to note the BABIP of .314 and the HR/FB rate is 22.7%. The xFIP to each side is both under 3.90. 

When we’re looking at why Mahle has been better to lefties, it sure looks like the four-seam/splitter mix has a lot to do with it. Both pitches have a wOBA under .300 and the splitter is under .215 with a whiff rate of 40%. The four-seam has 32 of the 50 strikeouts Mahle has recorded so far and he may well be the best option on paper to anchor out lineups. 

Rich Hill

This is pretty much where we’re at that Rich Hill might be the second-best option for us. Now, he’s been worlds better than the start of the season but there’s still not a comfort level here. The K rate has gotten up to 26.6% and he’s going to need every bit of it because the O’s don’t whiff a lot to lefties at just 22.7%. They are also somewhat of a mixed bag to lefties, as the wRC+ and slugging are top 10, but most other metrics have Baltimore between 14-20. Hill does have a fly-ball rate barely over 37% and the hard-hit rate is barely over 31% so there’s not something that sticks out as a reason to attack Hill. The curve still stands out as well –

I’m not overly excited for Baltimore playing seven righties, which is their typical lineup. Hill sports a .306 wOBA to that side of the plate and a .703 OPS. Still, the xFIP is 3.82 and the Orioles struggling with the curve could wind up being the key. Hill has thrown 204 four-seam fastballs to righties and 195 curves, so it’s basically a 50/50 split. The curve only has a .232 wOBA and a 23.8% whiff rate while the four-seam has a 25.5% whiff rate. Now, the four-seam can be susceptible to damage with a .344 wOBA and three home runs, but it’s not like the Orioles kill that pitch either. 

Domingo German 

When we get the smaller slates and a bunch of imperfect spots, the best thing we can do is cause the strikeout upside for pitchers. German has a great matchup for that as the Rangers strike out 27% of the time to righty pitching and German is over 24% himself. We can also like the fact German sports a ground ball rate over 45% and Texas is sixth in ground ball rate to righties at 46.9%. What’s interesting about the K rate for German is the swinging-strike rate is 12.9% and the CSW is 30.1%. That would lead me to believe he can run up the strikeouts a little more than he has so far. Part of that is the O-contact rate (amount of contact made on pitches outside the zone) is 63.2%. German’s career rate is 59% so there’s room for improvement. 

The splits aren’t spectacular for German as both sides of the plate are over .300 with lefties sitting at .324. However, that’s also coming with a .306 BABIP to that side, and both sides at least whiff over 22%. The curveball has been the money pitch so far with a 40.4% whiff rate and a .145 wOBA and Texas has not hit that pitch well. I fully expect German o give up some production but also strike out 5-7 hitters. 

Honorable Mention – Dane Dunning, who has some strikeout upside but has been worse to righty hitters. The Yankee lineup is a little beat up and he could be a stealth pitcher here. I could actually see him becoming a little chalky with the salary involved. 

Starting Rotation 5.20 – Main Slate

Vince Velasquez 

I’m still reluctant to totally buy into Vinnie Velo and this has all the makings of playing him to see him get smacked for no apparent reason. His salary does help mitigate those fears, however, and the reality is this is a great spot for him by a ton of metrics. The Marlins do not rate well against any of his pitch mix and every pitch has at least a 29.4% whiff rate. The 4.27 xFIP brings us some comfort and the 2.15 HR/9 is being fueled by a 24.1% HR/FB rate. The Marlins may not have the bats to take advantage of it. They are 26th or worse in slugging, ISO, and OPS on the season so the power lacks for sure. 

The other great part for Velasquez is the Marlins strike out the fourth-most in baseball to righty pitching and only walk 7.3%. Velasquez has a 28.9% K rate so far and while the walk rate is gross at 14.8%, the Marlins aren’t scary in that metric. The weaknesses they have mesh well with Velasquez’s strengths, which means Vinnie Velo has a chance at a big game tonight. The 30.0% HR/FB to righties have skewed his numbers and they may well continue to come down in this start. At least we’ve seen him hit at least 19 DK the past three straight starts. 

Sandy Alcantara 

Alcantara got blistered in his last start, but don’t let one start cloud how solid he’s been all season. Every other start has been at least five innings, yielded no more than four earned runs, and has at least four strikeouts. Many starts are higher than these numbers but that’s been about the floor for Alcantara so far. He gets a good spot for strikeouts as Philly remains sixth K rate to righty pitching at 26% while Alcantara has racked up a 24.2% rate. He’s cut his walk rate down to a career-best 7.6% and that’s always been a small issue for him. Even better is the 48.2% ground ball rate and a hard-hit rate of just 27.7%. One of the biggest jumps for Alcantara has been the swinging-strike rate of 14.4%. 

Alcantara will likely face five righties and the pitcher spot and that means he’ll be leaning on the slider more than the changeup. The change is his fourth pitch to the right side of the plate but the slider has 12 strikeouts, a .286 wOBA, and a 35.3% whiff rate so there’s nothing wrong with that pitch. Alcantara is also better to righties with a .278 wOBA and a 29.2% K rate. You can point out that the road ERA is 6.86 compared to the 2.30 mark at home, but the Dodgers start really skews that badly. It’s not a concern for me and you can use both pitchers from this game if you like. 

Drew Smyly 

On a five game slate we can afford to get weird and I can safely say that Smyly will not be in the main target list very often. This is the exception to the rule as he’s taking on the Buccos, who have been terrible to lefties all season long. Their highest ranking in our offensive categories is 24th, and that’s in OBP. They sit directly in the middle of the pack as far as strikeout rate at 24.1%, which is enough for Smyly to rack up a few. Make no mistake, Smyly has not pitched well this year at all. The 5.23 ERA is about what he’s earned so far with a 5.28 xFIP and a 6.49 FIP. The fly-ball rate is absurd at 48.9% with a hard-hit rate just under 39%. This is mostly targeting an offense that has been poor the entire season.

He is going to face 6-7 righties and that has been the biggest issue for Smyly this year. The K rate is only 15.5% and the wOBA is .357 so you’re banking on Pirate incompetence. As poor as Smyly has been, he has been able to show some upside. He just pitched six strong innings against the Brewers and he’s even got the Nationals twice. On a large slate, maybe we don’t go here but for this size slate, Smyly makes sense to take a shot with.

Honorable Mention – Nick Pivetta, but I don’t feel the need to pay the top dollar on the slate against the Blue Jays.

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Yesterday’s slate made it challenging to find a whole bunch of options but tonight’s slate makes up for it. There are at least seven pitchers that I would say can be considered ace-level options tonight and I’m not sure how far I’ll stray from them. We just don’t need to get all that cute with so many quality arms to choose from in Starting Rotation 5.19 so let’s get to work breaking it down! 

Starting Rotation 5.19

Corbin Burnes 

It can be odd to know that the next pitcher is on the slate but he’s not the best option (in my eyes, a least). His cutter would be one of the 10 best-ranked pitches in baseball if he hadn’t missed some time and it’s been absurd. Of the 58 strikeouts Burnes has racked up, 32 have come from the cutter. It’s boasting a 36.7% whiff rate and just a .210 wOBA. Looking at the larger picture, Burnes has a 19.1% swinging-strike rate which would be second and his 37.7% CSW would lead all pitchers by 2.7%. The overall K rate of 45.3% is stunning as well. This isn’t a normal run of the mill cutter –

If you wanted more reason to play him, Burnes has both sides of the plate at a .218 wOBA or lower and he’s at his best pitching to righties. The K rate is 55.4%, the xFIP is 0.54, and the FIP is 0.01. The Royals should play five and two of the lefties are not remotely scary. Burnes is my top option on a crowded slate, especially considering his salary went down after 23.7 DK last game. A reminder that he only threw 78 pitches in five innings, returning from Covid. The salary makes no sense. 

Max Scherzer 

The veteran just keeps on ticking and I don’t particularly have any concerns about him only throwing five innings last game out. The Nationals staked him to a huge lead and it was very likely a case of saving him for the course of the season. Scherzer looks like he pretty much always has at this point with a 35.8% K rate, a 15.9% swinging-strike rate, and a 32.6% CSW. He resides in the top 10 in all three of those metrics while the Cubs still rock a 25.8% K rate to righties, seventh in baseball. I’m never going to be in love with a fly-ball pitcher at Wrigley Field and Scherzer does carry a 51.8% fly-ball rate, a stark contrast to the 39.8% mark he held last year. The HR/FB rate is 14% which isn’t terrible and the 2.98 xFIP doesn’t give us much concern in that aspect. 

There are likely to be four lefties in the Cubs lineup, which eliminates the slider for Scherzer for those four batters. He’s legitimately not thrown a slider to a lefty all year, utilizing his changeup and cutter instead. Both of those pitches have a whiff rate over 30% and 10 strikeouts each, nothing to sneer at. The changeup has been especially lethal with a .061 wOBA allowed, the best of any pitch. This could be the one slate that you can argue you don’t need to play Scherzer with other legitimate options with his upside, but I still expect him to be fairly popular. 

John Means 

The last time we targeted the Rays with a lefty, David Peterson scored over 25 DK points and Means is a very superior pitcher, at least talent-wise. Tampa continues to scuffle with lefties this year, ranking no higher than 22nd in OBP, OPS, wOBA, ISO, wRC+, or slugging. They also have the second-worst K rate to that side with a 31.9% mark, while Means sits at 28% on the year. His swinging-strike rate of 15.9% is 10th and the 31.3% CSW is inside the top 20 among starters. He’s lowered the contact rate (contact made on all pitches) from 75.6% last season to 69.8% this year, which helps explain the jump in swinging-strike rate to be sure. 

His changeup is ranked as the best in the majors, and he bumped it up about 5% from last year. It’s not hard to see why it’s ranked as the top change, as it’s only allowed a .137 wOBA, .106 average, and has a 40.9% whiff rate with 24 of 53 strikeouts. The Rays will likely counter Means by stacking six righties in their lineup but it doesn’t particularly matter for Means. Both sides are almost dead even at about a .197 wOBA and RHH strike out at a higher rate of 29.5%. I love Means and his upside today since he won’t be taken out of the game in the seventh inning while twirling a shutout to get pinch-hit for today.

Trevor Rogers 

Rogers throws a slider and a changeup in there to keep teams honest, but his star pitch is that four-seam to this point. Not only did he add velocity on it this season up to 94.9 MPH, but it has 40 of his 57 strikeouts so far. That pitch is also generating a 30.5% whiff rate, .292 wOBA, and only a .198 average. When a pitcher can throw a four-seam that much and get those kinds of numbers, you know it’s a really good pitch. The overall K rate for Rogers is 32.6% and the walk rate is a bit high, but still under 10%, and his HR/9 is a tiny 0.41. The xFIP tells us that regression is likely to be a thing for Rogers, but why wouldn’t it be at a 1.84 ERA? If the xFIP of 3.44 is accurate, Rogers is still a dynamic pitcher. 

With the Phillies Ranking so poorly against the fastball and flirting with a 30% K rate to lefties, we have to give some attention to Rogers here. He’s had some pretty tough spots and frankly, this isn’t one of them on paper. RHH only have got him for a .258 wOBA and a 33.3% K rate, so I’m not exactly fearful of the Philly lineup. They are no higher than average in our offensive categories and Rogers is that talented that he can flirt with 25 DK points in just about any given start. 

Shohei Ohtani 

Maybe DK has a glitch in the algorithm that weighs the hitting performances too heavily for Ohtani. 

I’m going to say this with emphasis – Ohtani is the most mispriced player on this entire slate. You should NOT in any way be able to play Ohtani and Burnes as your pitchers and have over $4,000 left for your hitters. Don’t let that mistake pass without using it. 

It really all came together for Ohtani in that last start as he exceeded 30 DK points while pitching seven innings. Cleveland has steadily climbed the ranks of K rate to righties and now sits at 25.1%, 11th in the majors. The walk rate is also only 7.3% and that’s 28th, lessening our fears about Ohtani’s walk issues. He continues his MVP campaign here with a 36.4% K rate and a 4.2% barrel rate. The swinging-strike rate has climbed over 14% and the CSW is just under 32%. One of the biggest reasons for these metrics is the splitter, which is just a hair behind Kevin Gausman for the top spot in the majors. 

I’m having trouble coming up with adjectives to describe it. The splitter has 28 of 38 strikeouts, has given up one singular base hit, and has a sixty percent whiff rate. This pitch is ridiculous and Cleveland ranking well against it means nothing to me. The small nitpick with Ohtani is the lineup he faces since Cleveland will likely play five lefties. On the year, they have been the trouble spot for Ohtani with a .319 wOBA and “just” a 26.7% K rate. Righties have whiffed 48% of the time and he should still face four of them. The lefty wOBA also looks good considering a 28.6% HR/FB rate, which is ugly. Ohtani is way too talented to get too concerned with these splits, which are a little worse than they should be. You can play Burnes and Ohtani with the upside of 20-25 strikeouts and have over $4,000 left per player. That is a no-brainer path and even though the slate is loaded up top, this is the way to go for me. 

Clayton Kershaw

Kershaw is coming off a weird start in which he struck out 11 hitters but gave up five runs in six innings. The 3.20 ERA looks about fair with a 2.49 FIP and 3.07 xFIP in tow, along with a 0.71 HR/9. The K rate of 28.1% is almost identical to last season but the 16.4% swinging-strike rate and 33.2% CSW are both up significantly since last season. Kershaw’s slider is ranked fourth in the majors and it has been the star in the strikeout department. Sure, the wOBA is up slightly to .256 and the slugging is .333, but it’s also generating a 44.4% whiff rate and has 45 of 57 strikeouts. He can also still do this –

Kershaw has also been a little unlucky to righty hitters. His BABIP is .340 and that’s driving some of the .310 wOBA to that side of the plate. His K rate is 29.3% to righties and the D-Backs do present a challenge with a 21.6% K rate. They have also hit lefty pitching extremely well, ranking in the top five of all our categories except average. They are ninth there, so while this is Clayton Kershaw we’re talking about, I can’t say he’s a MUST have on this slate as he is the highest-salaried pitcher and I don’t see the need to pay for him. 

Jack Flaherty 

This pitch data spot for Flaherty looks wonderful since the Pirates are missing their best slider hitter in Colin Moran. As it stands, they would rank about 22nd without his rating and they are obviously dead last against the other two pitches. On top of that, the four-seam has been the out pitch with 26 of 48 strikeouts (the slider has 15). The four-seam has just a .224 wOBA given up and oddly only an 18.9% whiff rate. With the Pirates being the worst team in the league to that pitch, it’s easy to see why Flaherty has a great spot as far as pitch data.

You could possibly mount an argument that the upside isn’t super person since the Pirates have four lefties and Flaherty only sports a K rate of 18.3% to that side of the plate. Pittsburgh is only sitting at a 22.9% K rate to righty pitching but this lineup is just very poor overall. Flaherty is sporting a 33% K rate to the right side and the Buccos have four plus the pitcher’s spot so there is still upside to be had here, even if he’s not one of the bigger names on the slate. I can’t say I’ll have a ton of him tonight but he deserves to be mentioned.

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.19 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.18

We have a massive 14 game slate tonight but given the size of the slate, I’m not sure we’ve had a worse pitching slate on the year. There are just some flat-out bad options tonight, so we’re going to adjust the format just a little bit. For tonight, we’re only going to talk about the main targets because these will be the only pitchers that I’m playing tonight. It doesn’t look like Starting Rotation 5.18 is the night to take a ton of chances, so let’s get our core group set and build around them for the green screens! 

Starting Rotation 5.18 – Main Targets 

Brandon Woodruff 

Much as it was last night, I don’t think there’s a very strong case not to lock in Woodruff for cash and be very heavy on him in GPP. We just have to have faith the results will be better than Cole last night. He’s one of the top pitchers in baseball period and is a clear top option on a slate where I might have eight options. The K rate is 33.2% with a 14.1% swinging-strike rate and a 32.4% CSW. Woodruff ranks eighth, 16th, and 10th in baseball in those metrics so right off the hop we have serious upside. The hard-hi rate is down under 30% and Woodruff has kept the fly-ball rate to just 32.4%. Even though his 1.64 ERA can’t stick around forever, it’s not like the 2.30 FIP and 2.69 xFIP give you much of a concern. 

Every single pitch type has a whiff rate over 20% at least and the sinker is the only pitch with a wOBA over .277. If you want to argue that Woodruff has been worse to righty hitters, you are technically correct but the wOBA to that side of the plate is a whopping .221. The K rate to both sides is over 30% and even though the Royals sit at just 23.4% as a team, it’s not enough to get away from Woodruff tonight. 

Zack Wheeler

Marlins Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 

I don’t think I’ll be jamming him into a double ace approach, as Wheeler has not been that reliable, 20+ DK point player every start. He’s certainly shown flashes but has been under 20 DK more times than not this year. Still, he does draw a strong matchup. The K rate is up to 26.1% so far this year which would be a career-high.

One facet that is helping push that along is he’s flipped his pitch usage. Last season, the sinker was his second pitch and the slider was third. This year, the slider has taken over and the four-seam/slider combo has combined for 42 of 56 strikeouts. 

Almost everything in the profile has gotten stronger for Wheeler, and even metrics that went a little backward aren’t bad at all. The 28.4% fly-ball rate is up from last season but certainly nothing to fear. Likewise, the hard-hit rate is barely over 28% and he’s finding the zone with more consistency, up from 53.2% in 2020 to 58.4% this year. Both sides of the plater are at a .285 wOBA or lower and the Marlins are split at four of each hitter in their normal lineup. They also rank sixth in K rate to righties at 26.3% and are 28th in OPS, ISO, and wOBA. Wheeler is a strong play and honestly is even better than normal on this particular slate. 

Lance Lynn 

I’m always a touch leery on pitchers against the same team twice in a row, but Lynn is the kind of guy that can survive it. He just got this same Twins lineup for 30 DK points and his salary only went up by $600. Lynn threw 111 pitches which is one of his calling cards and he whiffed nine batters. He’s the odd pitcher in multiple ways as he’s getting a 36.1% whiff rate on his four-seam and it has 26 strikeouts out of 44 total. It’s weird to see that since he throws some variation of the fastball 98% of the time and there’s not many that can do that, especially with a 12.5% swinging-strike rate. How can you not like this guy?

Lynn is a good candidate to go up against the Twins as they have five righties and some very questionable lefties. To the right side of the plate, Lynn has a .190 wOBA and a .425 OPS to go along with his 37.8% K rate. Lefties are better but still have a 23.9% K rate and just a .266 wOBA. Lynn has a fly-ball rate that is a little concerning at 47.1% but it was over 42% last season and he’s thriving with it. 

Cristian Javier

I didn’t even love the matchup last time for Javier and he ground out seven strong innings for 18 DK points. This one is a bit better for him as the A’s do typically feature 3-4 lefties, but their best slider hitters are lefties. That’s vital for Javier, as his slider is would be tied for sixth in the majors if he qualified. It’s generated a .126 wOBA, 53.3% whiff rate, and 22 of 44 strikeouts. He’s only thrown seven to lefties all year and the A’s only have Matt Chapman that rates well against that pitch. The first time around he scored 26 DK against this A’s offense –

Overall, Javier has a 29.1% K rate himself and Oakland is sitting at 24%. The righty for the Astros has generated a 12.2% swinging-strike rate so far and has just a 30% hard-hit rate. Generally, the better hitters for Oakland are on the right side and that will work out nicely for Javier if these splits keep up. The .215 wOBA to righties is excellent, as is the .457 OPS and the 36.6% K rate. The salary is finally down to where I feel more comfortable in playing him. 

Andrew Heaney 

This might not be the biggest strikeout spot on paper, as the Cleveland offense only whiffs 20.6% of the time to lefty pitching. That may not be the most important aspect since Heaney is rolling into this start with a 33.6% K rate, which would be in the top 10 if he qualified. In years past, Heaney was always unreliable and that’s what the results would tell you this year. However, his 4.75 ERA doesn’t match the 2.95 xFIP at all and we notice the 20.6% HR/FB rate. That’s 5% higher than his career rate and Cleveland is only 18th in ISO to lefty pitching this season. 

What is super interesting is the curve may not be the biggest key to this start for Heaney. Of the 444 total pitches he’s thrown to righty hitters, only 86 have been the curve. The changeup has been thrown 121 times and only Jose Ramirez is anything but terrible against that pitch with a 0.8 rating on FanGraphs. Cleveland could play eight righty hitters and the change has a 29.9% whiff rate with a .264 wOBA. Heaney is also sporting a 36.9% K rate to righty hitters along with a 2.31 xFIP. He’s been much better than it may appear and this could be one of those starts where it all comes together. 

J.T. Brubaker

This may well be as low as I’m willing to go tonight, as the bottom rung is tough. Brubaker has emerged as the “ace” for the Bucs along with Tyler Anderson, just how they drew it up in the offseason. One of the first metrics I look at with pitchers against the Cardinals is how they fare to the right side of the plate. St. Louis typically runs out five plus the pitcher spot (and Matt Carpenter as a lefty doesn’t count for a whole lot) and Brubaker is…tough to gauge. The .334 wOBA and .758 OPS are concerning but there are metrics to support some poor luck so far. 

Not only is the BABIP to that side .327, but the HR/FB rate is also 27.3%. Neither of those marks will hold up and the 2.97 xFIP helps draw that conclusion. The K rate to that side of the plate is his best at 26.7% and the slider is his best strikeout pitch with 20 of 41 and a 37.6% whiff rate. Every pitch but his sinker has at least a 26.3% whiff rate and with Brubaker sporting a 25.5% rate on his own, he makes plenty of sense at this salary. 

Honorable Mention – These talented pitchers are in play in theory, but they are all in some pretty tough spots and I’m not likely to play them – Julio Urias, Eduardo Rodriguez, Hyun Jin Ryu, Sean Manaea, and Michael Pineda. They all have easy-to-use pivots that we talked about. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.18 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.17

Monday is a bit of a smaller slate and the good news is we have one absolutely stud to play! The sort of bad news is the rest of the cast is a little bit dicey, outside of a few options. Baseball is a highly variant sport but the options for Starting Rotation 5.17 look very clear cut, so let’s get to work and lay the foundation for green screens! 

Starting Rotation 5.17 – Main Targets 

Gerrit Cole 

We’re not going to spend a ton of time here because Cole will be the stone chalk tonight and I’m not here to say differently. He’s been among the best three pitchers on the season with the second-best K rate (40.8%) among qualified starters and the best walk rate (1.6%). The FIP/xFIP is 1.13/1.96 while the ERA is 1.37 and he’s cut the HR/9 from 1.73 in 2020 to 0.51 this season. The 15.8% swinging-strike rate is sixth and Texas is a top-three K rate team to righties. Cole also has both sides of the plate under a .220 wOBA and all four pitches are generating at least a 29.8% whiff rate, with no higher than a .244 wOBA given up. 

Even with Walker Buehler and Yu Darvish on the slate, Cole is not pricey enough and the other two are averaging 10-12 fewer DK points per game. If the averages hold up, it’s going to be tough to make up the ground at what is sure to be chalk. I believe the best path is going to be to eat the chalk and find our differences elsewhere, be it with the other starting pitcher or our bats. 

Yu Darvish 

If there’s a spot that could match the potential for Cole at far less popularity, Darvish could be that guy. He gets the Rockies on the road in their first game outside of Coors, and typically that’s an advantage to the pitcher. Additionally, Colorado is 29th or 30th in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ on the road to righty pitching. They do only whiff 23.1% of the time but Darvish is sitting at a 31.2% K rate himself. The swinging-strike rate is down 2.5% from last year to 11.8% but the CSW has only dropped 1.4% to 32.2%. 

Both sides of the plate are under .285 and only lefties give him a slight bit of an issue at a 1.35 HR/9. The good news for Darvish is the lefties in the Rockies lineup aren’t exactly the most intimidating. None have a wOBA over .360 and only Ryan McMahon has an ISO over .150. They should have four righties and the pitcher’s spot and with Darvish sporting a 36.6% K rate to that side of the plate, we can build a path for nearly 30 DK points. Having said that, I do believe Cole is the better play. 

Madison Bumgarner 

We said we would need a difference maker and the way MadBum is pitching, he is a candidate in a spot that I would think he won’t be popular. The perception (and likely reality by the end of the year) is the Dodgers are elite against lefty pitching. That’s not been the case so far with a ranking of 23rd in average, 25th in slugging, 22nd in OPS, 26th in ISO, 22nd in wOBA, and 22nd in wRC+. That’s all coming with a 25.2% K rate which is ninth-worst in the league. After a couple of bad starts, MadBum has found his velocity and turned back the clock to Vintage Bumgarner. Suddenly, the K rate is 27.5% which is his highest rate since 2016. The same could be said for his swinging-strike rate of 12.5% and that’s the best mark since 2015.

The cutter/four-seam mix is both up nearly 3 MPH so far and has 27 of 47 strikeouts so far. The best part is that’s also helped the curveball jump from a 23% whiff rate o a 41% mark this season. The wOBA on every pitch is down significantly and both sides of the plate are under a .300 wOBA. The top of the Dodgers lineup is ever-dangerous, but with the loss of Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager, the lineup as a whole is not as whole as it will normally be. Much like we’ve started to use lefties against Atlanta, we can take a calculated risk with MadBum tonight.

Yusei Kikuchi

I would be very surprised if the Cole/Kikuchi pairing isn’t the most popular on the evening and honestly, it should be. Kikuchi gets the Flow Chart start as a lefty against the Tigers, and he’s enjoying his best season in the majors thus far. The 4.30 ERA is a bit higher than the 3.25 xFIP but it would still be the first time Kikuchi hasn’t had an ERA over 5.00. The K rate is 25.6% and the walk rate is down to 7.4% and while the HR/9 is 1.43, the HR/FB rate is 22.6% and that’s a little absurd. Kikuchi has generated a 51.7% ground ball rate and a hard-hit rate of just 27.4%, which is a great combo. Hitters are swinging and missing at a career-best 13.3% rate, while the CSW has followed to 31.1%. 

The .320 wOBA to righties isn’t spectacular, but he’s been bit by the home run ball from that side more than he would deserve. The strikeouts are evenly distributed across his three main pitches at 11, 13, and 13 while the four-seam/slider combo both have a whiff rate over 34%. In case you need a reminder, Detroit is still leading K rate to lefties at almost 34% and are dead last in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. With Kikuchi rolling up at least 20 DK points in three straight starts, I’m happy to eat the (probable) chalk in cash games especially. 

Casey Mize 

We’ve harped on finding a difference-maker after Cole and Casey Mize could be that style of play in GPP only. He could unlock Cole + a big money stack like the White Sox or Yankees. Mize is still a scary pitcher to use as the metrics aren’t exactly comforting. The K rate overall is under 17% but the Mariners are a top 10 K rate team to righty pitching. His ground ball rate is helpful at 52.2% and that could help dampen Seattle leading in fly ball rate at 41.1%. His best two pitches so far are the four-seam/slider combo and they have 24 of 27 strikeouts. Given the slider is new this season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if it has taken time to get it right during actual gameplay. It has the lowest wOBA of any pitch at .250 and a 26.1% whiff rate. 

Honestly, I was hoping the slider was a key to his three best starts but that was not to be. He used a different secondary pitch every start but that could actually be a good sign. Mize and the Detroit staff are adjusting in-game and having Mize throw whatever pitch is working best with the four-seam on that given night. He has thrown 24 innings on the road with just a 3.38 ERA so that helps slightly. The bottom line is this is banking on the talent and matchup. It hasn’t hit on all cylinders for Mize yet, not even close. He also just turned 24 and has had a K rate over 20% at every minor league stop. On a slate that doesn’t offer a ton of cheaper options, you can hope for the 15-18 DK in a strong matchup but understand the risk is a negative DK score. 

Starting Rotation 5.17 – In Play 

Walker Buehler – At least on paper, this really isn’t the spot to chase Buehler and his upside. He’s throwing the four-seam 51% of the time and while it has generated 27 stakeouts so far, it’s also given up four home runs. Arizona is third against the fastball this season and they could throw seven lefties in their lineup tonight. If the splits hold up for Buehler, that would be an issue. They have gotten him for a .333 wOBA, 2.08 HR/9, and the K rate falls under 25%. When you’re spending that salary, you need to have a route to match or exceed Cole’s upside. I believe that’s going to be very tough for Buehler, but he is so talented that I will not put him out of play. 

Adbert Alzolay – I might actually prefer playing Alzolay at his salary than Buehler. Barely 26 years old, Alzolay has shown some serious upside in the strikeout department at a 29.3% K rate. That would sit around the top 12 if he qualified and he will typically face five righties and the pitcher spot if the Nationals play their typical lineup. With a .197 wOBA to righties, a 2.64 xFIP, and a 36.2% K rate, we want to focus on righty-heavy lineups when playing Alzolay. Washington is not a huge strikeout team at just 21.8% but Alzolay has seen such a major shift in his mix, this could still be a spot to use him. He’s upped the slider usage from 6.7% last year to 46.3%, and it has 25 of 36 strikeouts. The slider also has generated a 41.6% whiff rate and the Nationals are 12th against it, but still in the negatives as a team. None of the lefties in the Nets lineup has a wOBA over Kyle Schwarber’s .347, although Juan Soto will surely get there. Still, this spot is pretty solid for Azlolay. 

Jon Gray – He’s a pitcher I can struggle with sometimes because I don’t think he has any specific metric that we can anchor to and be happy with. Gray is pitching well, but there is a general sense of him being “just a guy”. We can definitely talk about Gray throwing his slider a lot more this year, up almost 8% from 2020. It’s been his go-to strikeout pitch with 27 of his 44 strikeouts overall and it boasts a 41.7% whiff rate. All three of the main pitches sit at a .295 wOBA given up or less, which is a nice metric to have. Gray’s K rate is only 22.9% and the Padres still are bottom-three in K rate to righties, so this doesn’t scream as an upside spot for strikeouts. With a 53.7% ground ball rate and the Friars still without Fernando Tatis, they can still be targeted. 

Starting Rotation 5.17 – Out of Play 

Taijuan Walker – Is this a little harsh? Possibly, since Walker has been solid this year. If he was less expensive, I’d be more willing to take a chance on him but over $9,000 is a lot for a pitcher that has a 23.9% K rate and an 11% walk rate. The xFIP is somewhat concerning at 4.12 since the ERA is 2.20, meaning there is some regression coming. Walker does have the pitch mix working for him, with a four-seam/slider mix as his main two and they both have a wOBA under .200 and a whiff rate of at least 25%. Atlanta is 17th and 20th against those pitches, which does help. It should also help Walker that Atlanta should be righty-heavy and he’s posted a .217 wOBA to that side of the plate. The issue is really the case and I’m not interested in paying this salary. 

Max Fried – I’m leaving him out of play tonight as the K rate has yet to hit 23% and the Mets are not a heavy strikeout team at just 23.2%. They are also second in OBP so if Fried is not striking anyone out, he has some very limited ceiling as far as DK points. Now, he is very certainly better than the 6.55 ERA and the 4.22 xFIP tells us that loud and clear. It’s been a tough start so the numbers are skewed a bit but he doesn’t have a pitch that’s giving up less than a .363 wOBA right now. Since New York is above average in wOBA and wRC+, this just isn’t a spot I’m interested in with a pitcher like Kikuchi $500 more. 

J.A. Happ – He got absolutely blistered by this same White Sox offense last time and at least now the 4.26 ERA is closer to the 5.52 xFIP. We pointed out the last time that his K rate was under 15% and that would come back to haunt him. It did last time and will again. Every pitch he throws continues to have a whiff rate of 20.3% or less, and RHH has a .333 wOBA and 5.81 xFIP against him. 

Jon Lester – It’s Picks and Pivots time, boys and girls! 

Sam Hentges – I’ll continue to say the Angels may not be as fearsome against lefties as some may think, but Hentges doesn’t strike me as the player to continue to test the theory. The FIP is 6.19 and you can’t have a 1.76 WHIP with a 97.8% strand rate. They just aren’t compatible. His hard-hit rate given up is 37.2% and the fly-ball rate is almost 42%, also not great. Hentges has only thrown 13.2 innings, but the zone rate of 35.3% is dreadful and hitters are making contact with 96.5% of swings at pitches inside the strike zone. With righties sporting a .450 wOBA (yes, it has come on a .370 BABIP) and an 8.01 FIP, I don’t see the need to take this chance. 

Dallas Keuchel – To paraphrase Will Ferrell from StepBrothers – I’ll never play Dallas Keuchel…not even if there’s a fire!

Seriously though, you can’t play him. His ceiling is 12-14 DK points and we’re not that desperate. 

Jordan Lyles – Righties have roughed him up this year for a .392 wOBA, 2.66 HR/9, and his fly ball rate is 46.2% with a 40.8% hard-hit rate. All of that is quite bad when facing a Yankees lineup, especially when you possess a K rate under 21%. 

Patrick Sandoval – I honestly had thoughts of putting Sandoval in play. That’s how poor this Cleveland offense has been through some points of the year. I can’t quite pull the trigger as Sandoval hasn’t thrown more than 52 pitches in his three appearances. The walk rate is over 15% and the HR/9 is 3.68, although the HR/FB rate is also over 42%. Still, the issue is with a limited pitch count, even a couple of walks can be a disaster. Cleveland is eighth in walk rate against lefties and only whiff 20.8% so it’s just not enough upside to take a risk. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.13

Thursday brings us the normal split slate but please do note the early slate starts at 12:20 PM, which is earlier than normal. The slate gives us five games to pick from while the evening gives us six for a total of 11 all day. The full breakdown will be in the early slate, so let’s get down to business in the Starting Rotation 5.13 to lay our foundation for both slates! 

Starting Rotation 5.13 – Early Targets 

Jack Flaherty – Past one poor start in miserable conditions on Opening Day, Flaherty has pitched like a bona fide ace. One fairly significant change from the 2020 season is he’s using his four-seam/slider combo about 80% of the time, up from roughly 74%. If you’re playing Flaherty, that’s what you want to see because those pitches have combined for 38 of 42 strikeouts, have a wOBA under .300, and both have a whiff rate over 18% (the slider is 38.8%). 

Milwaukee is still sporting a top-five K rate to righty pitching and Flaherty is just under 26% with a 0.94 WHIP and 0.65 HR/9. Perhaps the most encouraging thing is he’s putting out these performances despite the K rate, swinging-strike rate, and the CSW all down from last year by about 3%. Both the four-seam and the curve (his third pitch) are down 8-10% on whiff rate so if he can get those pitches working for more swings and misses, lookout. He has both sides of the plate down under .260 for the wOBA and even though the K rate to lefties is 19.2%, he should face more RHH than lefties today. 

Corbin Burnes – If we knew he was 100% and ready to go he would be the clear number one. Burnes was asymptomatic while he was out with Covid, so he has been working out and throwing. Still, the Brewers could be careful with him. He could react differently in a game environment as athletes with Covid is still uncharted waters for the most part. Not everyone reacts the same, so there is uncertainty and there is no discount given today. I think we let the projected popularity guide us. If he’s popular, we need to eat it in cash. 

After all, if Burnes is right he has a 45.4% K rate, zero walks, a 19.4% swinging-strike rate, and a 38.2% CSW. All of those three strikeout metrics would rank second if he still qualified and he has the best-ranked cutter in all of baseball. Here’s a reminder of what that looks like –

Burnes also has righties on total lockdown with a .160 wOBA, .363 OPS, and a 56.6% K rate. The Cardinals typically throw out seven of them and if Burnes even goes five innings, he could score over 20 DK points. 

Michael Pineda – I could see not many looking at Pineda after the White Sox went bonkers last night, but remember that the White Sox can struggle to righties and still lead the league in ground ball rate at 52.2%. The lineup is important since they should put five righties out there today. That would be a nice bump for Pineda since he’s better to righties at a .230 wOBA, .175 average, and a 48.9% ground ball rate. The 27.9% K rate to that side of the plate certainly isn’t a bad thing either. Chicago is second against the slider and 13 against the fastball, so the pitch mix data for Pineda isn’t super strong but the slider is also his best pitch. He’s only yielding a .217 wOBA and it has 17 of 32 strikeouts on the season. Pitching is dicey for the early slate, so I’m more willing to go to Pineda than I would normally be. 

Daniel Lynch – Let’s be 1,000% clear – this is a GPP ONLY PLAY and only if you’re bold. Detroit has done more damage than we’ve been accustomed to the past few days, and Lynch is coming off getting hammered by the White Sox. I still firmly believe he deserved better in the first start against Cleveland and Chicago is tough for any lefty to navigate. Right now, Lynch is suffering through a .455 BABIP and has more walks than strikeouts. His metrics look awful, I won’t even try to hide it. This is belief in the toolkit with a four-seam that is averaging 95 MPH and a slider that has a 44.4% whiff rate so far. If he can’t get it done against Detroit with their seasonal metrics against lefties, I’ll let him be for now. 

Starting Rotation 5.13 – Early In-Play 

Lance Lynn – It’s not a particularly easy matchup, but Lynn always seems to get it done and he’s one of the few pitchers you can bank on throwing 90-100 pitches basically every time out. The K rate has jumped up to 29.9% and that would be a career-best, in part due to the four-seam jumping up 5% in whiff rate and racking up 22 strikeouts already. Lynn is also tougher to righties with a .213 wOBA and a 34.4% K rate, which works out since Minnesota typically plays six. 

Zach Eflin – He is interesting today, but not a pitcher I typically get along with if I’m being honest. The K rate isn’t anything to write home about at 23.1% but he’s hardly walking anyone at 1.6% and the hard-hit rate is only 23.4%. Eflin is fastball heavy at almost 55% and that could be an issue with Washington being 12th against that pitch, but he’s surviving pretty well with his mix. The 2.59 FIP would support the 3.38 ERA being real, especially with a 3.22 xFIP as well. I can’t say I’m in love but we only have 10 options to he checks in as a fine one. 

Starting Rotation 5.13 – Early Out of Play 

Charlie Morton – I loved him last time out as was rewarded with absolutely nothing. It’s honestly a little tough to put the finger on what exactly is going on with Morton. The curveball is the most thrown pitch and boasts a whiff rate over 44%, while only giving up a .237 wOBA. His xFIP is 3.58 compared to a 4.98 ERA and his hard-hit rate is only 23.4% but the HR/FB rate is over 19%. I’m not sure facing Toronto is what I want to chase if you’re having issues keeping the ball in the park as the 1.31 HR/9 for Morton would be his worst since 2010. The Jays are top 10 in ISO and Morton has suddenly turned into a reverse splits pitcher, getting smacked by righties. 

Patrick Corbin – Now that Corbin has shown weakness, he’s quickly becoming my Jon Lester. He frustrated the Yankees last start with six fine innings, but only scored 9.1 DK points. The metrics remain just terrible, as every pitch has already given up at least two home runs. He’s throwing the sinker about 30% and it is simply getting destroyed with four bombs, a .572 wOBA, .935 slugging, and just two strikeouts. The top four in the Philly order are Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, Bryce Harper, and Rhys Hoskins. The top three have wOBA’s over .450 and ISO’s over .310. Hoskins “only” has a .399 wOBA and .205 ISO against that pitch. I won’t be looking at Corbin at all. 

Ross Stripling – The results have been a little worse than expected so far with a 4.87 xFIP compared to a 6.61 ERA and the .404 BABIP is helping that along. Still, Stripling isn’t exactly doing anything well enough to challenge the Braves. The K rate isn’t even 22% and the HR/9 is 1.65 despite just a 27.3% hard-hit rate. Righties have utterly crushed him with a .525 wOBA, 1.255 OPS, and a 6.97 xFIP. 

Spencer Turnbull – The big bats for the Royals are mostly on the right side and Turnbull is giving up a .365 wOBA and only carrying a 10% K rate to that side of the plate. With an overall K rate of under 18%, it’s fairly easy to just stay out of this range of pitching. 

Starting Rotation 5.13 – Evening Slate 

Cristian Javier 

The pricing continues to be questionable on Javier, but I’m still interested. Now, the question becomes how interested because this is not a perfect spot for him. Texas does continue to lead or sit in a virtual tie for the highest K rate to righty pitching in baseball. However, the lineup facing Javier might lead to some shakiness from the Houston righty if his splits continue. Not only do lefties have a .330 wOBA against him, but the K rate also slips down to 22.8% compared to 37.3% to righties. Texas has an everyday lineup of four lefties, though three of them are over 24% in K rate. 

My largest fear with Javier is his slider is his best pitch and it’s not particularly close. He’s throwing it about 25% and it has only given up a .098 average, .122 wOBA, whiffed 20 hitters, and carries a 56.7% whiff rate. No other pitch is over 23.3%.

The issue stems from he just doesn’t throw it to lefty hitters. Javier has only utilized it seven times all season to lefties. When four hitters nullify the pitcher’s best weapon, it makes me a little nervous. I think he’s still one of the better arms on the slate overall, but that speaks more to the slate being rough for pitching. 

Trevor Rogers

I wonder how the field reacts to Rogers because this is one of his tougher challenges on the season. Arizona is no worse than third in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefty pitching. They’re doing that while only striking out 20.8% and walking 10.7%, both top-seven marks. Even average is eighth for them so they are one of the most dangerous offenses in the game to lefty pitching. Rogers has found about 2 MPH on his four-seam and it has 35 of his 50 strikeouts so far with a 33% whiff rate. He’s throwing it over 62% of the time which helps explain the 33.1% K rate and the 16.5% swinging-strike rate. 

He’s dominating righties with a .250 wOBA and a .178 average. It’s funny because it’s been lefty hitters that have done some damage with a .346 wOBA so far but the BABIP is .438 so I don’t think we have much reason to think that stays. His changeup is still a weapon as well since it has the eighth-best ranking for FanGraphs and a 37.5% whiff rate. All in all, I like Rogers but this is not a cakewalk. He’s pitched well against good offenses before, but the price doesn’t leave a lot of margin for error. 

Zach Plesac

This play has all the makings of me cautiously starting to think Plesac is turning things around only to see him get smacked. He’s hit six and seven strikeouts in his past two starts, but the K rate is still under 20% for the season. Considering it went up to 27.7% last year, we need to explore why and it doesn’t take long to figure it out. His slider and change aren’t generating nearly the whiff rate they did in 2020. Last season, they were 42.7% and 35.6% each and this season they’ve plummeted to 28.6% and 16%. Needless to say, the difference is stark. 

When we look at the past two games, we can see the secondary pitches have started to look a little better. 

This game was from May 2nd, and the changeup got up to a 27% whiff rate. Sure, the slider was not working for him that day but at least something else was getting swings and misses.

Likewise, the start after that saw the changeup not work out but the slider was up to 43% and the change at least got some called strikes. The overall arc here is the strikeouts have started to come back a little bit when there’s been a pattern of whiff rate starting to creep up towards 2020 levels. On top of all that, there’s this nugget as well –

There’s certainly no guarantee that happens tonight, but it’s at least a step in the right direction with Seattle being a top 10 team in K rate. Plesac will face six righties in the normal Seattle lineup and they do have the better success, but both sides of the plate are under a .295 wOBA. The HR/FB rate to righties is 21.1% which is driving the 1.77 HR/9. It’s not the best spot per se, but what is on the evening slate?

Logan Gilbert 

Major League Debut 

You guys know me well enough to know that Gilbert was going to be in the main write-up. He and fellow Mariner Jarred Kelenic (who at $2,000 cannot hurt you in your lineup tonight, a worthy punt) are both making their debut tonight. The scouting report on Gilbert says he’s an advanced young pitcher, with potentially four “plus” offerings in a fastball that hovers around 93-95 MPH, a slider, a curve, and a changeup. 

The minor league track record suggests big potential K upside for the big righty as well. He’s never been lower than a 28.7% K rate in any season pitched and has been split about being a fly-ball or ground ball pitcher. It likely settles in as fine, if maybe not that great. The pitch mix spot looks excellent as Cleveland is in the bottom-eight against three of his four pitches. They are also inside the top 10 in K rate at almost 25% and are below average in wOBA and wRC+. The bottom line is at $4,000 with Coors Field on the slate, we can take some shots but it will almost certainly be GPP only. 

Honorable Mention – Sean Manaea, Mike Foltynewicz 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.13 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 5.11

After a sketchy slate on Monday, we get the return of a full slate Tuesday night and have some actual pitching options to choose from! I know, good news all around after just five games last night. With 22 pitchers to break down (two are repeats after the Rockies game was postponed), let’s get right into Starting Rotation 5.11! 

Starting Rotation 5.11 – Main Targets 

Walker Buehler 

Those who have paid attention in Discord likely assumed that John Means would be in the top slot, but we’ll get to him shortly. I don’t often say this but I believe Buehler is the top option as far as high salary goes on this slate. For one, Seattle loses the DH as they travel to Los Angeles. For another, Buehler leans heavily on the four-seam and the Mariners are third-worst against fastballs with a top-eight K rate of 25.4%. Buehler has his K rate climbing and is just under 27% to go with a matching 2.99 FIP/xFIP combo. His hard-hit rate is out of place at 41.7% but I’m not sure just that is enough reason to fade him, especially when the swinging-strike rate and CSW are 12.1% and 30.1% respectively. I can’t imagine why –

The projected lineup could work in Buehler’s favor as well. Seattle might only have two lefties in J.P. Crawford and Kyle Seager in the lineup and no, I’m not counting Yusei Kikuchi as a lefty hitter. Buehler is giving up a .343 wOBA, .794 OPS, and a 1.80 HR/9 to the left side of the plate. If you wanted to give Seager a look as a one-off since he has over a .250 ISO and is the second-best fastball hitter on the team, it could be a low-owned great play. Overall, Buehler looks like a very strong option and has picked it up in the strikeout department the last three starts with 27 total punch-outs. The fact he’s under $10,000 on DK helps as well. 

John Means 

Figuring out what to expect with a pitcher after throwing a no-hitter can be difficult. Means threw 113 pitches, which is a good bit. He’s also thrown at least 93 in every start, so I wonder how far above and beyond he went with the pitch count. You would still have to think a quick hook is in play, as Means is vital to this Orioles rotation. I’m at the point with Means that I don’t fear really any matchup, but the Mets are on the tougher side. It’s not particularly the power elements, but they are top-seven in wOBA and wRC+ while leading in walk rate and OBP against lefty pitching this year. Having said that, Means is sitting on a 30.1% K rate, 15.7% swinging-strike rate, and a 31.6% CSW. The latter two numbers are both inside the top 15 among qualified starters this season. 

His K rate has taken a significant jump this year and the four-seam/changeup combo is the main reason why, as they have 42 of 50 strikeouts. Means has the number one rating on FanGraphs for his change at 9.3 and the next closest is Gerrit Cole at 8.0.

It’s only allowed a .138 wOBA and possesses a 41.5% whiff rate. Means has both sides of the plate under a .200 wOBA and has been spectacular this year. The only small concern is how the Orioles handle him, and for that reason, I have Buehler ahead by a small margin. 

Freddy Peralta 

For a pitcher to give up five runs (including a grand slam), three walks, eight strikeouts, and still whiff eight hitters on 73 pitches is some kind of game. That’s exactly what Peralta did last time out but I’m ready to go right back to the well. For one, he put his foot down after a terrible first inning and didn’t let another run across. The opposing lineup also sets up beautifully for him as the Cardinals should play six righties and the pitcher spot. Peralta is currently striking out righties 51.5% of the time, which is absurd. His FIP and xFIP to that side of the plate is under 1.85 and St. Louis is whiffing almost 24% of the time as a team. That rate has a good chance to be higher if they’re facing this… whatever this whiffle ball is all night –

When we zoom out for the big picture, Peralta’s 40.8% K rate would be second to only Jacob deGrom, and the swinging-strike rate is 14.2%. The four-seam and slider have accounted for 50 of 53 strikeouts and both pitches are over a 32% whiff rate on the season. The walk rate of 13.1% is still a significant issue but he proved he can pitch through disaster, so I’m ready to play him again tonight with no issues. 

Robbie Ray 

Ray has got things happening this season with three straight games over 20 DK points, one of which came against these very Braves. One of the reasons for that is Atlanta is 29th in every offensive category that we discuss, saved from the basement only by Detroit. It’s been fascinating to see Ray evolve this year into a heavy four-seam pitcher.

He’s gone from throwing it 47% of the time last year to over 60% this year while dropping that slider to under 19%. In 2020, the slider was the main strikeout pitch with 33 on the year. One of the issues though was an obscene walk rate of 17.9%. His K rate has dropped a bit but it’s still 25% while the walk rate is down to a career-best 7.8%. 

Ray has thrown the four-seam 279 times already to righties and has 24 strikeouts and only a .276 wOBA allowed. He’s found another 2 MPH on it and the slider, and the whiff rate on the four-seam has jumped by 5% to 24.8%. The righty hitters do have a .344 wOBA against him but so far this year, Atlanta has all of one active player above a .350 wOBA to lefty pitching. Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, and Austin Riley are all under a .270 mark as of now. Eventually, they will hit better against lefties but until they do, we can use Ray and his newfound abilities in GPP. 

Shohei Ohtani 

The longer DK leaves the price down this low for Ohtani, the more I’m going to continue to hammer him when he starts. In the last three, he’s scored 18, 21, and 21 DK points. That’s already a solid start but what if I told you he pitched 14 innings, allowed 21 base-runners, and still managed those scores? Ohtani has whiffed 25 hitters in those three starts and he’s not even at a full pitch count. The splitter continues to be absolutely evil, as hitters are looking for their first hit against it on the year.

It boasts a whiff rate of over 61% and is responsible for virtually every strikeout. There is going to be a start where Ohtani gets his 22.6% walk rate under control and I’m going to be there for it.

His ground ball rate is almost 60% and he’s given up exactly one barrel so far. Both sides of the plate are under a .290 wOBA but righties especially are struggling to make contact with a 48.5A% K rate and no home runs allowed. Ohtani will likely see six RHH tonight and that gives him one of his best avenues of success. Houston does boast the best K rate in baseball, but Ohtani’s stuff is different. They also are only 22nd in walk rate, so perhaps this is the one that everything clicks. The salary is just too low for the potential here when he’s hitting 20+ DK points despite a terrible walk rate and WHIP.

Brady Singer

I’m not sure why Singer is so cheap, but he shouldn’t be. I know it fell apart for him in the last start but he had some umpire issues and I think that cost him towards the end of his time on the mound. It’s impossible to be mad at him because the ump in question was Angel Hernandez. Someone needs to get that man out of baseball. When Hernandez did call a proper zone, Singer was pitching well –

We’re not that far removed from him reeling off 32, 20, and 17 DK points. Any of those outcomes would play tonight and he gets the Tigers, who continue to lead the majors in strikeouts. Singer is respectable at a 23.6% K rate and combining that with a 31.1% CSW doesn’t hurt either. The ground ball rate of 50% insulates him from damage to some extent, as it’s more likely Detroit will have to string together some hits. 

Even though Detroit will likely play six lefties, Singer should be able to get through it with a .286 wOBA, .632 OPS, and a K rate of 22.4%. It is a touch worrisome that five hitters have a wOBA over .370 against the sinker because Singer uses it about 38% of the time to lefties. Having said that, his sinker is only giving up a .246 wOBA so far this year so it wouldn’t keep me away at the salary. We could pair up Singer and Buehler for barely $15,000 on DK and I wouldn’t be shocked if that winds up being popular. You can play any offense you like at that point. 

Starting Rotation 5.11 – In Play 

Lance McCullers – As he is every time he toes the rubber, McCullers is in play and that’s especially true if Buehler winds up popular. McCullers can be a grenade or a GPP-winning style play any given start, as evidenced by his 13% walk rate. He does balance that with a 27.5% K rate and a 55.1% ground ball rate but the Angels ranking sixth against the curveball is a small concern. It’s interesting because we highlighted his lack of curveball usage against righty hitters in the last start. Sure enough, he only threw nine all start, leaning on his slider and changeup. The Angels are above league average against both pitches and should roll out six RHH. In fairness, McCullers has the right side of the plate down at a .266 wOBA. The change is his highest whiff rate pitch at 47.6% but it also gives up the highest wOBA at .347. With the metrics being a mixed bag, it’s best to leave him for GPP only but still in play. 

Marcus Stroman – I never like paying this price, but I wouldn’t take Stroman out of play either. Baltimore is about average in ground ball rate to righties, but they also whiff over 24% of the time and are dead last in wOBA to that handedness. Baltimore’s lineup does have four hitters with a wOBA over .350 against righty sinkers, but I still have faith in Stroman to put up a solid game. It’s just a matter of it being fantasy relevant. His K rate isn’t great at 21%, but that would represent his career-best number so maybe he has a touch more upside than I generally give him credit for. 

Madison Bumgarner – It’s time to take him somewhat seriously. I wanted nothing to do with him at the start of the year, and that looked solid. His first three starts generated a total of seven DK points. After that, MadBum has looked vintage while throwing 23 IP, giving up three earned runs, and whiffing 25 hitters. There is a very noticeable correlation with that streak –

The curve and four-seam have been largely responsible for his strikeouts and Miami is 30th and 20th against those pitches. The barrel rate sat at 14.9% last season but he’s cut it in half at 7.1% so far this year. His swinging-strike rate also has seen a big jump from 7.5% to 12.3%. It sure looks like the 2 MPH difference in his four-seam and cutter are making a big difference, and he’s looking for his fifth straight game of 20+ DK points. 

Nathan Eovaldi – It’s been an adventure playing Eovaldi lately, with two great games and two very poor games. This one shapes up as not the greatest spot for him, as Oakland is middle of the league in K rate to righties. Eovaldi isn’t a huge strikeout pitcher as the K rate is only 22.4%. His splits look poor to righties with a .319 wOBA but the BABIP is over .380. His FIP is 1.87 to that side and 2.05 overall. He’s not getting hit hard at all with a 4.3% barrel rate and a 21.4% hard-hit rate. I really wonder if the field totally ignores him after burning them in the Tigers matchup. If that’s the case, he’s an interesting GPP option, but I would only be interested in MME formats. 

Yusei Kikuchi – Oh boy, this is scary but the 2021 stats are very kind to Kikuchi in this spot. The Dodgers have fallen to 23rd or worse in average, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ to lefty pitching. Only two hitters in their everyday lineup have a wOBA over .370 this season in Chris Taylor and Justin Turner. Kikuchi is using his cutter almost 40% of the time and has a .307 wOBA against it.

In turn, the Dodgers are 28th against that pitch and Mookie Betts is the only player who sits above a 0.3 FanGraphs rating. The K rate isn’t monstrous at 22.7% but the ground ball rate is 52.9%, which is 10th in the league. The Dodgers are 10th as a team in ground ball rate to lefty pitching. We know the Dodgers can come to life at any point, and the 27.3% HR/FB rate to righties seems unsustainably high for Kikuchi. He’s shown ceiling to a team like Houston and could have that same outcome tonight. 

Pablo Lopez – About the only two reasons Lopez is not the main target is because he just picked against these D-Backs, and we don’t always love that. He continues to fully breakout with a 25% K rate and the lowest WHIP of his career at 1.08. You also love to see the 28.6% fly-ball rate coupled with a 28.3% hard-hit rate, which helps keep the HR/9 below 0.70. The four-seam and the change have accounted for virtually every strikeout for Lopez this season and that is a small concern because Arizona is top-five against both pitches. Lopez is also worse to LHH with a .303 wOBA and will face five in all likelihood. Lopez has pitched too well to leave him out, but I don’t think he’s a necessity at all. 

Chris Bassitt – I’m not using him but Bassitt is having an excellent season thus far. His K rate is 24.6% and he’s only yielding a 3.5% barrel rate. Bassitt throws six different pitches this year but the main three are the sinker/four-seam/cutter mix, accounting for about 75% of his mix. What’s really interesting is his best strikeout pitch is the slider with 16 but he throws it under 8% of the time. Bassitt is also suddenly generating a swinging-strike rate of 12.3% and his career mark is 8.8%, so that is a noticeable shift. It’s one of the main reasons you could play him tonight if you wanted to. 

Kenta Maeda – He went from probable chalk on Sunday to sitting in a very crowded tier tonight. The matchup is different and it’s tougher, but how much tougher is it? The White Sox are two different offenses depending on the handedness of the pitcher. When they face righties, they lead the league in ground ball rate at 52.1% and it’s almost a 4% lead. The jump to a 2.20 HR/9 for Maeda might be mitigated by the White Sox sitting bottom-four in ISO to righties. They are league average in K rate at 23.6% and Maeda has dropped to a 21.2% rate himself. One of the largest factors is his splitter since it had a 45.6% whiff rate last year compared to a 20.7% rate this season. He’s coming off his best start of the season and nobody will touch him. If he can continue to get back to what he put on the field last season, the price is very low. 

Kwang Hyun Kim – This is low-key one of the better pitching slates of the season so far, as we have a ton of options that can work in my eyes. It’s hard for me to overlook Ohtani, but Kim is well in play for $200 less. The FIP is 2.65 and the xFIP is only 3.60, which is very respectable. Kim has the K rate at almost 24%, meaning he can take advantage of the 28.7% rate Milwaukee is showing. Now, the Crew continues to be a top 10 offense in the rest of our categories but Kim has the HR/9 under 0.51 and a swinging-strike rate of 12.5%. He’s mostly a four-seam/slider pitcher, and Milwaukee is fifth against the fastball and 30th against the slider. Kim only throws the four-seam about 5% more than the slider, and the latter pitch has 12 of his 18 strikeouts and a 37.3% whiff rate. The BABIP looks like it should come down as well as both sides are over .340. We can’t play everyone for sure, but with many options available we can make some fun pivots tonight based on where the field is projected to go. 

Dylan Cease – Quietly, Cease is putting up some serious numbers this season. The K rate is 32%, he has a FIP/xFIP combo of 2.80/3.57, and his HR/9 has gone from 1.85 to 0.59. Considering the K rate last year was 17.3% and the swinging-strike rate has jumped up almost 4%, what in the world has changed for Cease? Well, for starters his four-seam and slider both are seeing a little more movement and he’s using the four-seam more. The slider has already racked up more strikeouts than it did all of last year.

Cease is getting almost 8% higher on the swing rate on balls outside of the zone and has a 5% drop in contact when hitters swing at balls inside the zone. These are pretty major shifts, and it’s important to note he’s still just 25 and is only at 161.2 IP experience-wise at the major league level. The Minnesota offense is a tough cookie and only whiffs 22.9% of the time, but are beat up a little right now as well. We could get Cease before the field notices his improvements, but it’s not an easy matchup for him. 

Starting Rotation 5.11 – Out of Play 

Jordan Montgomery – We talk about the Rays offense against lefties often, because they whiff at a 31.7% rate which is the second-worst in baseball. They are also in the bottom half in our offensive categories, and you would think that means we’d have Montgomery in play. I can’t quite get there as the leash has been fairly short with him since he’s not thrown more than 89 pitches yet. The K rate is just over 21% and the hard-hit rate is 35.1%, so neither mark is super special. What really worries me is Tampa can play six righty hitters and they have a .351 wOBA and a 1.93 HR/9 on the season. That’s enough for me to pass on a slate this size. 

*Note – Both pitchers in Colorado are repeated since they are starting tonight. 

Dinelson Lamet – The Padres are being very careful with Lamet and he hasn’t thrown more than 30 pitches yet in either start. We’d be lucky to see 50 pitches and he’s far too expensive for that, not even counting the fact he’s in Colorado. 

Antonio Senzatela – The ground ball rate is 52.4% so maybe that helps, but the K rate is 13.1% and the Padres are sporting the second-best K rate to righties in baseball. Righty hitters are tagging Senzatela for a .398 wOBA, .973 OPS, a 2.25 HR/9, and a 5.77 FIP. I’m happy to pair up the Padres offense (among others) with Singer and a pitcher like Buehler or Means tonight. 

Chase Anderson – He’s rocking a FIP/xFIP combo that is both over 5.30, has a 17.8% K rate compared to an 11.9% walk rate, and Washington can mash lefties. Righties have tagged Anderson for a .364 wOBA and an OPS of .840. There are way too many pitchers to like to take this route. 

Matthew Boyd – It’s not exactly like Boyd is out of play, but we don’t have a category for “I like about 10 pitchers better than him” so here he sits. Boyd has been quite good, but the K rate is barely 17% and the xFIP of 4.96 is a pretty stark contrast to the 2.27 ERA. With a fly ball rate of almost 46% and an HR/FB rate of just 2.1%, it’s not hard to see why the xFIP is not his friend. The scary part is a lot of that xFIP comes from the right side of the plate, something KC is rife with. Boyd did just hag 20 DK on them, so it’s possible but I’ll be fine targeting others tonight. 

Erick Fedde – Righties have gotten the better of him so far this year with a 1.80 HR/9, .310 wOBA, and a 35.9% hard-hit rate. To his credit, Fedde has a 27% K rate to that side and Philly whiffs an awful lot but there a ton of options tonight. I’m not playing one that has a career ERA of 5.12 over 222.1 IP. 

Luis Patino – It’s very unclear what his role is tonight. He could just be an opener, he could be used as a traditional starter…it’s the Rays so who really knows. He had been piggybacking with Shane McClanahan but that changed Sunday. If we get news, this will be updated but this is not the slate to take a shot at a pitcher possibly going 2-3 innings. 

Bryse Wilson – We’ve seen Wilson for 54.2 IP in the majors and none of them have been all that good. The xFIP is 5.65, the HR/9 is 1.81, the K rate is only 16.9% (10.7% in 12 IP this year), and righties have a career .368 wOBA with a .886 OPS against him. The left side of the plate is even worse and the HR/9 is up over 2.60. That’s not where I want to head, especially against the Jays. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.11 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!