MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 7.31
My name is Adam Strangis and I’m filling in for Timmy on this Friday evening. Last night was a hair frustrating for some in the Discord if you faded the Yankee game due to weather. It was one of those nights where the process was spot on, so that’s a positive. Aces and Bases for July 31 will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.
The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.
Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.
MLB DFS: The Aces
Best Value: Luis Castillo ($8,000 DK/$10,100 FD)
I’m happy I got to write Aces and Bases for Friday July 31 because this was an easy pick. So if you’re playing FD, Castillo is not a value at all and I would sub in Mike Minor as the Value. However, we simply can’t ignore Castillo on DK at this price. It’s an egregious price tag that is going to leave the Reds ace as absolute chalk. He destroyed this same Tigers offense last time out for 29.3 DK points and they have struck out the most against RHP since the start of 2018. You lock him in and get different elsewhere.
Honorable Mention – Mike Minor
Top Ace(s): Yu Darvish ($10,500 DK/ $9,100 FD)
Darvish is coming off a very mediocre start against Milwaukee but this is certainly a perfect get right spot. He draws the Pittsburgh Pirates, who sport roughly 4-5 minor league hitters per game. In the early going, Pittsburgh has seen their K rate skyrocket to 27.9% against RHP. This is a stark contrast to their 18.8% clip in 2019.
To make matters easier for Darvish, the Pirates are bottom two in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ in the first week. Other than that, the offense is really clicking (says the bitter Bucco fan). I expect Darvish to gt back to his second half of 2019 form when he whiffed 37.8% of hitters faced and gave up a .254 wOBA.
Honorable Mention – Mike Clevinger
Punt Play: Dallas Keuchel ($7,300 DK/ $7,000 FD)
In full transparency, I will not be dipping below Castillo on DK or Mike Minor on FD. The lower rung of pitching tonight is rife with grenades that I’ll be looking to avoid. The only one that maybe you can make a case for is Keuchel. He’s typically not someone we chase with a K rate under 22% since 2015 and the K is king in DFS.
What he does well is generate ground balls, with a GB % of at least 60% in two of the past three seasons. So far, the Royals have whiffed 33.3% vs LHP (42 plate appearances is a frightfully low sample) and have a .292 wOBA. They did have the 11th highest GB rate in 2019, so you might be able to catch Keuchel in a good run prevention spot even with a limited ceiling.
Honorable Mention – None
Top Fade – Blake Snell ($10,800 DK/ $9,500 FD)
Snell is the most expensive option on DK and is going to be capped to just 3-4 innings on Friday. His fastball velocity was down in his first start and he was inefficient in said start, throwing 46 pitches in two innings. Baltimore is quietly not that bad against LHP early on, with a top 10 wOBA of .325. That’s not likely to be accurate but there’s no reason to go after Snell when he’s capped.
Honorable Mention – Zac Gallen
MLB DFS: The Bases
There are a ton of different ways to build your offense on these big slates. Personally, I’m going to take a stand on a few offenses and call it a day. If you’re play MME style of GPPs, you can always get some exposure to more offenses, but for 3-Entry Max and Single Entry GPPs, I’m going to battle with a very limited player pool, as I really want to pick on a couple of starting pitchers and weaker bullpens.
We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for the Aces and Bases forJuly 31st.
Top Stacks
- Chicago White Sox – They face off against a 22 year old LHP named Kris Bubic who has never pitched above A ball. He has shown some K ability at 28% last year in 101 innings, but he also allowed a 40% fly ball rate. Through 33 plate appearances, Chicago has mauled LHP with a .481 wOBA, .308 ISO, 1.161 OPS and a .385 average.
- New York Yankees – The Yanks hammered last night as chalk and they get another tasty matchup here against Ryan Weber. The righty got scorched for six runs in 3.2 IP against the Orioles. Boston’s bullpen has pitched the fourth-most innings so far and has given up the ninth-highest wOBA and 12th highest HR/9.
Value Stacks
- Tampa Bay Rays – The last time we saw Alex Cobb log a large sample size in 2018, he got tuned up for a 4.90 ERA and only struck out 15.4% of the hitters he faced. The Rays are still missing Austin Meadows, but boast plenty of cost effective options to attack a mediocre pitcher like Cobb.
- Cincinnati Reds – If there was one thing we learned about Spencer Turnbull, it’s he struggles against LHH. They got him for a .347 wOBA and near a .300 average in 2019. The Reds have six LHH in the lineup tonight.
Monkey Knife Fight
Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! I think Mike Minor’s prop of just 5.5 K’s is something that we should be chasing for sure. Check out how to play with our quick overview here.
