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Today I’ll be walking you through some of my favorite spots for the More or Less, strike out edition!  I picked spots where we have some high strike out teams and low strike out teams.  Let’s see if we can find some K’s, and not find some K’s. 

More or Less – Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles – Prize 2.5x

Matt Harvey Under/Hyun Jin Ryu Under

A few years ago a 3.5 K total for Matt Harvey would have been unheard of.  He would have had that by the third inning.  A lot has changed for Harvey over the past few years.  His prime was short and he’s well past his prime.  

There are a couple of reasons I’m going with under for Harvey.  Over the past 30 days Harvey’s K rate is sitting at 12.5% and his CSW is just 24.9%.  He’s not fooling batters and he’s definitely not missing any bats. 

The other reason is that the Blue Jays have been dominant against righties.  They are striking out just 22% against the time and have a high OPS of .787.  It’s going to be a short day for Harvey with him getting 3 K’s at most. 

A lot of what I wrote for Harvey could also be said for Ryu.  Just not the whole being past his prime part.  Ryu has been in a little bit of a funk over the past month.  He too hasn’t been striking out many batters. His K rate over the past month is almost identical to Harvey’s.  It’s sitting at just 12.3%. 

His match-up today is surprisingly not an easy one.   The casual fan will look at the Orioles record on the year and think they are one of the worst teams in the league.  Well technically they are.  It’s 100% related to their pitching though as their offense has been pretty good.  Especially against lefties. 

They have been pretty dominant against lefties this year.  They have a high OPS of .767 and just a 22% K rate.  I don’t see how Ryu lasts long enough to get his 5 K’s tonight.  The under on this one seems like a slam dunk.    

More or Less – Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers – Prize 2.5x

Kyle Gibson Over/Casey Mize Under

This game has two teams that have high strike out rates.  Starting with Gibson, he’s facing a projected lineup today that has a 28% K rate to righties on the year.  While Gibson isn’t a high strike out pitcher, he’s shown the ability on occasion to dial it back and rack up some K’s.  In his last 12 innings of work he has 17 K’s.  With the Tigers high propensity to strike out against righties, I really like this spot for him to get his 6 K’s today and hit the over.

Casey Mize also gets a team that strike outs at an above average rate, but I just don’t think he has enough swing and miss stuff to get his 5 strike outs today.  Mize is going to face a pretty left handed lineup today and if we look at his metrics he has just a 21% K rate against lefties. 

If we look even deeper, he’s going to throw a ton of mid 90’s fastballs today with a mix of sinkers.  It’s two pitches that the Rangers normally fare pretty well against.  Look for Mize to keep it under 5 K’s today. 

More or Less – Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels  – Prize 2.5x

Eduardo Rodriguez Under/Andrew Heaney Under

We have a battle of the south paws in Los Angeles today.  Both the Angels and Red Sox have been two of the better teams vs. lefties this year so I’m expecting short outings from both pitchers. 

Starting with Rodriguez he’s facing a projected Angels lineup that has a 22% K rate vs. lefties this year.  While Rodriguez has gotten 7 K’s or more in 4 of his last 6 outings, they were against teams that strike out more than the Angels do.  I just don’t see him having the K strength to get to 7 today.  

Heaney gets an equally tough match-up today as he’s facing a Red Sox team that doesn’t K much against lefties.  They have just a 21% K rate vs. lefties and hit for a lot of power with a .173 ISO.

The Red Sox should throw out 7 righties today so expect to see a ton of fastballs from Heaney.  If we look at how they have fared against his pitch type we can make the assumption there won’t be many K’s for Heaney.  6 would be super tough for him.  Going with the under here.

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