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Minnesota Timberwolves

NBA Ghost’s Gems for Western Conference Round 1

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

The NBA Playoffs are officially under way! Yes, the Play-In tournament got us kicked off a few days ago. But the conventional one through eight matchups began last night. The Western Conference matchups are much more even than those in the Eastern Conference. Moreover, many NBA Championship contenders are featured in this one.

With the NBA Play-In tournament now over, here is the updated bracket for the Western Conference:

The fantasy sports landscape shifts drastically throughout the NBA Playoffs. Rotations are much more condensed, while teams are quick to shorten their bench. As previously mentioned, rotation notes, player breakdowns, analytical advantages, and key x-factors are all discussed. The x-factor will not be the best player on the team, but rather, someone that will provide an edge in both fantasy sports and on the court in real time.

Be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Denver Nuggets (1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)

Denver Nuggets (-500 to win series)

Introduction

After an opening round loss to the eventual NBA Champions last season, the Nuggets stormed out of the gate this year and never looked back. Nikola Jokic averaged a near triple-double while leading his team to the #1 seed in a competitive Western Conference. One can only hope the injury woes of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are behind them for what should be a deep playoff run.

Matchup

Despite the acquisition of Rudy Gobert, Minnesota still ranked 17th in points allowed in the paint per game and a disastrous 27th in rebounding. Thus, the matchup bodes well for MVP candidate, Nikola Jokic. Elsewhere, Jamal Murray will look to get the best of veteran Mike Conley on the perimeter, while the best statistical matchup is for Michael Porter Jr., who will see a ton of Anthony Edwards.

Rotation

The back-to-back NBA MVP will be a staple point in this offensive flow. Moreover, Jamal Murray looks healthy and is poised for a big role on what hopes to be a lengthy playoff run. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon flank the wings, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope plays the role of spot-up shooter from behind the arc. Elsewhere, Bruce Brown is a versatile player in this rotation, while Christian Braun, Zeke Nnaji, and veterans Reggie Jackson and Jeff Green round out the rotation.

X-Factor

Aside from the duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon is the x-factor to this series for Denver. A matchup looms against Karl-Anthony Towns, and other wings in smaller Minnesota lineups, such as Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince. However, Gordon will have to get his offensive game going early and often. Jokic will surely be double-teamed on nearly every possession, and there is only so many shots for Jamal Murray to take. Gordon’s versatility outweighs the inconsistency of Michael Porter Jr., making the former of more impact than the latter.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+375 to win series)

Introduction

The Minnesota overhaul was a disaster. Rudy Gobert was acquired in the offseason for far too many assets, and it simply has not worked out. This offense is stagnant, relying on Anthony Edwards in isolation far too often. Meanwhile, the defensive unit has been mediocre at best. Despite making it through Oklahoma City in the Play-In, there is little to like about this roster heading into the opening round.

Matchup

Despite making it through the Play-In tournament, things don’t get any easier for Minnesota. The Nuggets have a good roster when everyone is healthy, and this team looks to be in its best form after the regular season they had. However, there is an opportunity to Minnesota to take advantage on the perimeter. The issue is trusting the likes of Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns regularly, let alone the rest of this rotation.

Rotation

Expect to see as much Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns as you ever have in these NBA Playoffs. Moreover, Rudy Gobert will anchor the paint in a matchup versus Nikola Jokic and Mike Conley will run point. Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince will play impactful minutes, whether in the starting lineup or off the bench. Nickeil Alexander-Walker earned a starting spot in the final game of the Play-In, while Jordan McLaughlin will check in off the bench, only if necessary.

X-Factor

Both Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley will be of extreme importance to Minnesota in this series. However, the latter gets the nod as the x-factor with his role on both ends of the floor. Not only will Conley have to keep Jamal Murray at bay, but he will need to attack on the other side. Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards will lead the team in usage rate, but Conley needs to be efficient in his time on the court if the Timberwolves stand a chance.

Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (7)

Memphis Grizzlies (-140 to win series)

Introduction

After a disappointing exit to the eventual NBA Champions last season, Memphis is back on the big stage. It does not come without concern though, as Steven Adams missing the postseason is a huge hole to fill. However, Jaren Jackson Jr. is a Defensive Player of the Year finalist and needs to prove he can handle a matchup against Anthony Davis in this series. Ja Morant leads the charge for a team that will certainly face adversity from the get-go.

Matchup

A matchup versus the Lakers gives Ja Morant the best chance to take over a series. While Austin Reaves is a quality defender, the Lakers finished the season 29th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers and 28th versus crafty finishers at the position. However, the true mismatch lies in the paint. Memphis takes a huge hit on the glass and in interior defense with Steven Adams ruled out. Thus, hoping that Jaren Jackson Jr. is not only up to the task, but that he’s able to stay out of foul trouble versus Anthony Davis is more than enough cause for concern.

Rotation

Ja Morant and Desmond Bane will log a ton of minutes in the backcourt. Flanked by Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson Jr., the Grizzlies have a strong core. However, in the absences of both Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, Jackson Jr. will shift to the ‘5’ at times. Not only will he be forced to guard Anthony Davis, but the former needs to stay out of foul trouble; something he has not proven in his young career. Moreover, Tyus Jones will play a crucial role off the bench, while Luke Kennard and John Konchar pick up a few minutes on the wing. Xavier Tillman will need to step up in the absence of Adams and Clarke, with Santi Aldama being the fallback option.

X-Factor

Just as Ja Morant comes into this series with something to prove, Desmond Bane cannot go unnoticeable for multiple games. There is no doubt that the Lakers will key in on Morant. Thus, Bane needs to be able to not only provide offense, but create his own shots and create for others when he handles the rock. Being able to get open off the ball will be crucial, as Morant will be forced to find his teammates more often than he is used to in this series.

Los Angeles Lakers (+120 to win series)

Introduction

After making it through the Play-In tournament after a single game, the Lakers now turn their attention to the Grizzlies. Outside of Los Angeles fans, most have Memphis winning this series with ease. However, there is a clear path to the Lakers winning this one. By utilizing Anthony Davis as much as possible, the Lakers can wreck havoc for Memphis on the inside. Moreover, LeBron James looks for a fifth NBA Championship, while the front office acquired multiple contributors to a potential run.

Matchup

The key to this matchup will be in the paint. Yes, Memphis has a quality roster along the perimeter, both in their starting unit and off the bench. However, with Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke both nursing injuries, Anthony Davis needs to dominate on the interior and the glass, while LeBron James needs to attack the rim every chance he gets.

Rotation

This Lakers rotation is surprisingly deep thanks to an overhaul at the trade deadline. Alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves will play prominent minutes. Moreover, Jarred Vanderbilt and his defensive ability will earn him significant run. Rounding out the rotation are Dennis Schroder, Rui Hachimura, Malik Beasley, and Tory Brown Jr.

X-Factor

LeBron James and Anthony Davis look to shock the NBA community with a series win over Memphis. However, they will not be able to do it without Austin Reaves containing Ja Morant for multiple games. The breakout Laker will be tasked with guarding Memphis’ primary ball handler and will need to force him into bad shots. Moreover, Reaves’ offensive ability through attacking the likes of Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane, and Dillon Brooks on the other side of the ball makes him the key to a series win.

Sacramento Kings (3) vs. Golden State Warriors (6)

Sacramento Kings (+225 to win series)

Introduction

Light the Beam! Sacramento will be making their first NBA Playoffs appearances since 2005-2006. After trading Tyrese Haliburton for Domantas Sabonis, many had the Kings listed for a top pick in the upcoming draft lottery. However, this group had other plans. Behind career years from De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, this will be the most fun series of the entire opening round.

Matchup

The Warriors put up a lot of points, but they give up a ton as well. This is right up Sacramento’s alley, as they have done that all season long. However, the key to this series will be the first two games. Golden State struggled mightily on the road, and there may not be a louder building than Sacramento in the entire Playoffs. Look for De’Aaron Fox to score and create on every possession, as the Warriors ranked 24th to primary ball handlers and 27th to crafty finishers at the guard position.

Rotation

The core of De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and Harrison Barnes will see the most minutes. However, after that, things could get interesting. Yes, Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray will continue to start for the majority, if not every game this series. However, with the Warriors potentially going back to their roots of a smaller closeout lineup, look for Malik Monk to see a ton of run in this one. Moreover, Davion Mitchell gives Sacramento a quality on-ball defender, while Trey Lyles will be the first big man off the bench.

X-Factor

While this may be breaking the rules of the section, De’Aaron Fox is simply too important not to highlight. Yes, Domantas Sabonis was outstanding this season and led the NBA in both rebounds per game and total rebounds. However, it is Fox that will have to keep pace with Steph Curry on the other side. Following a career year where he was still snubbed from the All-Star game, Fox is looking to make waves in his first career playoff appearance and has the biggest stage of any guard in the opening round.

Golden State Warriors (-275 to win series)

Introduction

In an eventful season, the core of the dynasty remains. This was certainly a tighter race in the Western Conference than anticipated, and the Warriors were a mere two losses from being in the Play-In. Nonetheless, this is a team ready to make waves and has a clear path to yet another NBA Finals.

Matchup

While Sacramento had a career year in all facets of the season, their offense was simply outstanding. Not only did they finish first in offensive rating, but they posted a league-best 120.7 points per game. However, with an elite offense came a poor defense. The Kings finished 26th in defensive rating and struggled mightily on the wings and versus primary ball handlers. Domantas Sabonis is a beast in the paint and on the glass, but this is a pristine matchup for Curry and company.

Rotation

The Splash Bros will log a ton of minutes in this backcourt. However, with Andrew Wiggins returning in time for the NBA Playoffs since missing two months of action, others will need to step up. Donte DiVincenzo will get minutes on the wing, and Jordan Poole will get a ton of run off the bench as well when Thompson shifts to the wing. Moreover, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney will be tasked with a matchup versus Domantas Sabonis, while Gary Payton II and Jonathan Kuminga round out the rotation in sparing minutes.

X-Factor

Poised for another run at a Championship, the Warriors may have the toughest road than they ever have. The true x-factor in this series will be Jordan Poole. After winning Sixth Man of the Year last season, Poole averaged two more points per game this year while appearing in all 82 games for the Warriors. However, in a series versus the Kings, Poole will have to be able to be an effective secondary scorer if Golden State wants to keep pace. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson will lead the charge, but if Poole cannot outduel Malik Monk on the other side, it will be a quick out for the reigning NBA Champions.

Phoenix Suns (4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5)

Phoenix Suns (-500 to win series)

Introduction

Expectations need to be held in check for this Suns roster. Yes, they acquired Kevin Durant. However, not only has their starting unit played few minutes together, but their bench is not up to standards of others. Luckily, it is not a bench that wins the NBA Playoffs, but the starting unit. The core of Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Deandre Ayton is one of, if not the best of remaining teams. However, this roster is a single injury or bad matchup away from falling short of an NBA Championship.

Matchup

Despite having two of the best defenders of this generation on the same roster, Los Angeles has not shown the ability to win tight games for a full series. Largely due to the absence of one, if not both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the Clippers finished 17th in defensive rating this season. Moreover, they continued to struggle versus primary ball handlers, finishing 28th in the NBA. While Kawhi Leonard is capable of shutting down Kevin Durant, there is simply too much firepower on this Suns roster in the absence of Paul George.

Rotation

The core of Paul, Booker, Durant, and Ayton will soak up the majority of minutes for Phoenix. Moreover, Josh Okogie will take over the defensive responsibility left by Mikal Bridges in his departure to Brooklyn. The bench will be shallow, but look for Landry Shamet, Torrey Craig, and Cameron Payne (when healthy) to be first off the bench. Lastly, Terrence Ross and TJ Warren are options on the wing, while one of Bismack Biyombo or Jock Landale can sub in for Deandre Ayton in a limited capacity.

X-Factor

This offense is littered with elite options. Kevin Durant joins an established core of Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton. However, it is the savvy veteran running point that will need to be an x-factor in this series. Firstly, the matchup is as good as it gets. For years, the Clippers have struggled to guard primary ball handlers. Not only is CP3 one of the best to do it during his career, but of all time. Secondly, this offense had little time to familiarize itself before getting to the biggest stage of an NBA season. Thus, Paul can provide both stability and production with the ball in his hands by finding open teammates and limiting isolation possessions down the stretch.

Los Angeles Clippers (+375 to win series)

Introduction

In what was deemed a contender for years to come since Kawhi Leonard and Paul George joined forces, this roster has failed to live up to expectations. The main reason for their downfall has been injuries. After missing the entire season last year, Kawhi appeared in a mere 52 games for Los Angeles. Moreover, he has not played more than 60 games since 2016-2017. Paul George has been no better, appearing in 56 or less games in every year since he arrived to Los Angeles. This team has a strong foundation, but concerns loom.

Matchup

Phoenix is not the same team as they were for the majority of the regular season. Not only are both Devin Booker and Chris Paul healthy, but the acquisition of Kevin Durant makes this a roster capable of winning an NBA Championship. However, Kawhi Leonard has been one of the best playoff performers of this generation. Moreover, the Suns are vulnerable in the paint with Deandre Ayton and a combination of Bismack Biyombo and Jock Landale off the bench. Lastly, the Clippers need to attack individual matchups versus Booker, Craig, and bench players to spark offensive opportunities.

Rotation

Coach Ty Lue is notorious for rotation changes. Since leaving Cleveland, where he won an NBA Championship with LeBron James in 2016, Lue has become a much better game manager. Kawhi Leonard will have to log as many minutes as his body can handle in the absence of Paul George. However, the surrounding cast will have to step up. Lue has veteran options in Nic Batum, Marcus Morris Sr., and Robert Covington. Both Mason Plumlee and Ivica Zubac will get to man the paint. Meanwhile, Norman Powell and Terance Mann will see increased roles with George out for the series. However, both Eric Gordon and Bones Hyland give Lue more options at the ‘2’. Lastly, Russell Westbrook will have to be his best if Los Angeles stands a chance at winning a game, let alone the series.

X-Factor

In the absence of Paul George, no one is as important to the Clippers as Kawhi Leonard. However, others will need to step up as well. Thus, Norman Powell is the x-factor in this series. While he has an abysmal matchup, he can score in bunches. Lining up against Kevin Durant is no joke, but Powell has the ability to play well off-ball to get open in a matchup versus Devin Booker. Moreover, Powell averaged 17 points per game off the bench this season. In a starting role, he will have to alleviate some of the pressure off Kawhi.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA Ghost’s Gems for Play-In Tournament (Apr. 11)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

With the NBA season concluded, it’s time for the best part of the season. The Play-In tournament was introduced three seasons ago and has been a great addition to the existing format. In a one-and-done scenario for some, every second of these games is crucial.

Here is the NBA Playoff bracket with final seeding:

The fantasy sports landscape shifts drastically throughout the NBA Playoffs. Rotations are much more condensed, while teams are quick to shorten their bench. In both this article and the Opening Round Matchup Breakdown articles, there will be rotation notes, player breakdowns, analytical advantages, and key x-factors. The x-factor will not be the best player on the team, but rather, someone that will provide an edge in both fantasy sports and on the court in real time.

Miami Heat (7) vs. Atlanta Hawks (8)

Miami Heat (-5.5)

Introduction

Despite their shortcomings on offense, Miami has one of the best defensive units in the NBA Playoffs. A one-two punch of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo on the perimeter and in the paint, respectively, is one of the best combinations in the league. However, the Heat will need to find a way to produce offensively. No player averaged more than 11.5 points per game outside of Butler, Adebayo, and Tyler Herro. Additionally, Miami had the lowest scoring offense in the league this year with 109.5 points per game.

Matchup

On paper and in real time, these two teams are complete opposites. Miami had the worst scoring offense in the league, while only being ranked 25th in offensive rating and 29th in pace. However, the Hawks posted over 118 points per game, ranking them third in the league. They also were 7th in offensive rating and 6th in pace.

Rotation

The Heat will only go as far as Butler, Adebayo, and Herro take them. On a two-game NBA slate, raw points are king. Thus, Butler and Herro make for the most intriguing options on this roster. Elsewhere, look for Max Strus, Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love, and Caleb Martin to see decent run. Other candidates, would be Victor Oladipo, Gabe Vincent, and Cody Zeller, but don’t count on it.

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be an unknown difference-maker. In this game, Jimmy Butler will be the best player on the court. However, there is a good chance that Tyler Herro leads the team in scoring. If the Hawks play this one properly, they would have Hunter on Butler, Murray on Herro, and Young on Strus or Lowry. However, the Hawks have been reluctant to do so this season, meaning whoever lands on an individual matchup versus Trae Young will be crucial to a win.

Atlanta Hawks (+5.5)

Introduction

In an awkward position with a lot of money and term committed to multiple players, the Hawks stumbled into the Play-In tournament this season. Atlanta is still a key piece or two away from being true contenders, but they have a legitimate shot at winning this game due to their offensive firepower. In a year where offenses were taken to new heights, it was Atlanta who scored the third-most points per game, posting the seventh-best offensive rating amongst all teams.

Matchup

On paper, this is a horrendous matchup for the Hawks’ main contributors. Trae Young will certainly lead the offense, but Miami has the best perimeter defense in the NBA this season. Moreover, they ranked first against true primary ball handlers. Where Miami could be exploited is on the deep ball; the Heat ranked 28th in the league this season to three-point shooters, giving up 13.1 makes per game.

Rotation

Trae Young and Dejounte Murray lead a star-studded backcourt, surrounded by quality role players. De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, and Clint Capela likely round out the starting unit in this one. Meanwhile, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Saddiq Bey, and Onyeka Okongwu round out what can certainly be one of, if not the tightest rotation in the Play-In round.

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be an unknown difference-maker. In this game, De’Andre Hunter will be the most crucial contributor not named Trae Young or Dejounte Murray. While both John Collins and Clint Capela have their hands full with Bam Adebayo guarding the paint, it is Hunter that will benefit from a Heat defensive unit known to switch Jimmy Butler onto primary ball handlers. Being one of the most promising 3-and-D wings in the NBA since coming out of Virginia, Hunter will be relied upon on both ends of the court.

Los Angeles Lakers (7) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)

Los Angeles Lakers (-7.5)

Introduction

Despite a season of turmoil, the Lakers turned things around to get into the Play-In tournament. This team has one of the best duos in the NBA, alongside quality role players whom were acquired at the trade deadline. The highlight of the season has to be the emergence of Austin Reaves, who will play a crucial role in the Lakers’ playoff run.

Matchup

In the absence of Rudy Gobert, no player has a better matchup than Anthony Davis. Moreover, LeBron James figures to dominate against a Minnesota team that struggled to guard primary ball handlers all season long. With Minnesota playing at a fast pace with like Los Angeles does, only with far worse defense, this one plays right into the Lakers’ hands.

Rotation

This Lakers rotation is surprisingly deep thanks to an overhaul at the trade deadline. Alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves will play prominent minutes. Moreover, Jarred Vanderbilt and his defensive ability will earn him significant run. Rounding out the rotation, when necessary, are Dennis Schroder (when healthy), Malik Beasley, and Tory Brown Jr. There is potential for Rui Hachimura and/or Wenyen Gabriel to see some time if the Lakers make a Playoff run, but their minutes will be scarce.

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be a difference-maker without being the consensus top talent on his team. In this game, the duo of D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves will be relied upon to take advantage of a poor Minnesota perimeter defense. On the season, Minnesota ranked 25th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers, which bodes well for LeBron James, but Reaves and Russell have enticing matchups versus Mike Conley, Taurean Prince, and Anthony Edwards.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+7.5)

Introduction

The Minnesota overhaul was a disaster. Rudy Gobert was acquired in the offseason for far too many assets, and it simply has not worked out. This offense is stagnant, relying on Anthony Edwards in isolation far too often. Meanwhile, the defensive unit has been mediocre at best. In a matchup versus a streaking Lakers team, the Timberwolves will be lucky to be in this game at the start of the fourth quarter.

Matchup

The highlight of this matchup will be the pace of play. Respectively, Los Angeles and Minnesota ranked 4th and 7th in the NBA this season. However, when the individual matchups are broken down, there is not much to like about the Timberwolves. Sure, Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns will handle a ridiculous number of offensive looks, but lining up on LeBron James and Anthony Davis is no joke. Moreover, Minnesota will be forced to rely on role players who, themselves, are outmatched by the likes of D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and Jarred Vanderbilt.

Rotation

Minnesota’s season was underwhelming after the acquisition of Rudy Gobert, and it was truthfully expected. In this game, expect to see as much Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns as you ever have. Moreover, Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince will be forced into meaningful minutes. Since Jaylen Nowell missed five straight games to end the regular season, Jordan McLaughlin and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are the first guards off the bench. Filler minutes will be there for Austin Rivers and Nathan Knight, if necessary.

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be an unknown difference-maker. In this game, the Timberwolves simply do not stand a chance if Towns does not have one of the best games of his career. With Rudy Gobert suspended and Naz Reid out for the season, Towns will have to stay out of foul trouble against Anthony Davis. This is not going to go well for Minneosta.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 22)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Many key matchups await as the NBA Playoff picture is set to finalize in the upcoming weeks. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks (+2.5)

Golden State Warriors (-2.5)

With the Clippers’ Paul George suffering an injury last night and Phoenix still missing Kevin Durant, the Warriors have their eye on the #4 seed in the Western Conference. This would secure homecourt advantage in their opening NBA Playoffs series. Golden State will need Steph Curry to shoulder the offense on a nightly basis. The future hall-of-famer has has 30 or more points in three of his last four games and is poised to lead once again.

Dallas Mavericks (+2.5)

Considering the Warriors are 2.5-point favorites in this game, it is unlikely that Luka Doncic returns to the lineup tonight after a five-game absence. However, if he does, he instantly becomes one of, if not the top play on the NBA slate. Keep an eye on this injury report.

Atlanta Hawks @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-4.5)

Atlanta Hawks (+4.5)

Another key injury report to monitor, as Dejounte Murray was scratched from last night’s win over Detroit. This could have been precautionary, but if Murray is ruled out once again, then Trae Young will be one of, if not the most popular option on the NBA slate. After dropping 30/3/12 versus a rebuilding Pistons team in only 30 minutes, Young gets another favorable matchup versus a Timberwolves defense that ranks 25th versus opposing primary ball handlers.

Minnesota Timberwolves (-4.5)

Minnesota will be glad to see Karl-Anthony Towns back in the lineup tonight. Surely he will have a minutes restriction and is too risky for this NBA slate. However, he last suited up in November, giving this team a much needed spark in his return. Anthony Edwards was in a walking boot just a few days ago and has since missed the team’s last two games. However, he is listed as questionable to play. This is a key injury report to monitor, as it will offer plenty of value, should Edwards be ruled out once again.

Honorable Mentions:

Portland Trail Blazers @ Utah Jazz (-4.5)
Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 3)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Amongst a plethora of games on the NBA schedule are a few that stand above the rest. Moreover, a few key rotations are on the second half of a back-to-back. Injury reports will be crucial to monitor heading into the late games, as usual. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Atlanta Hawks (-6.5)

Portland Trail Blazers (+6.5)

Injuries for the Trail Blazers continue to get worse. While still missing Jusuf Nurkic to a calf injury, Anfernee Simons managed to log a mere 20 minutes before reaggravating his ankle injury after a two-week absence. The two have both been ruled out tonight, meaning this is once again an NBA slate where Damian Lillard will be amongst the most popular options in the field. After scoring 25 points versus Golden State, Lillard returned to form against the Pelicans, dropping an efficient 41 points in 39 minutes. He has now averaged 45.7/5.7/4.3 on 53.1% shooting in three games since the All-Star break, sporting an outrageous 41% usage rate. In the absence of Simons, look for Cam Reddish and Matisse Thybulle to see extended run.

Atlanta Hawks (-6.5)

There are two ways to approach this Hawks offense tonight. The first, being the more clear path to success, is playing both Damian Lillard and Trae Young. However, be aware that, consequently, lineup construction is entirely dependent on this game being the highest scoring affair of the NBA slate. Young has logged three straight 30-point efforts since the All-Star break, averaging 33/2.7/8 through a commanding 40.1% usage rate. Moreover, the second approach is riskier. Both Clint Capela and John Collins have terrific matchups on the inside versus a Portland interior defense that struggles mightily in the paint and on the glass. However, Onyeka Okongwu is a candidate for increased minutes in favor of Capela, should Portland run a smaller lineup down the stretch.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings (OTB)

Los Angeles Clippers (OTB)

The Clippers are on the second half of a back-to-back and face another potential playoff opponent tonight. However, they are notorious for resting players in these types of situations, primarily Paul George and/or Kawhi Leonard. The former has said to have been on a minutes restriction lately, but his minutes say otherwise. Meanwhile, Leonard has been in and out of the lineup after serious injuries over the years. There is no clear cut way to get exposure here at the time of writing, but this is one of the best spots on the NBA slate for a team that is already missing Ivica Zubac (calf) and Marcus Morris Sr. (elbow).

Sacramento Kings (OTB)

Two of the best individual matchups on this NBA slate belong to the Sacramento Kings. If primary ball handlers versus the Clippers did not entice you enough over the years, the acquisition of Russell Westbrook only makes matters worse for Los Angeles. Enter De’Aaron Fox, who was back at practice yesterday after a wrist injury. In three appearances since the All-Star break, Fox has averaged 35.3/3.7/7.7 on 63.9% shooting. Moreover, Domantas Sabonis gets the matchup that the fantasy community loves: Mason Plumlee. The former Charlotte Hornet was a daily target to pick on, and the league’s leading rebounder will be no match for him.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5)

Minnesota Timberwolves (-1.5)

While this offense is dominated by Anthony Edwards in the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns, both Mike Conley and Jaden McDaniels make for intriguing plays on this NBA slate. Since coming over from Utah, Conley has averaged 8.5/2.7/5.8 on a mere 36.7% shooting. While the numbers certainly do not jump off the page, the game environment is elite: the Lakers rank second in the league in pace, while ranking 27th against combo guards. Moreover, McDaniels has been a focal point of this defense, alongside Rudy Gobert. The former has been efficient on both ends of the court, scoring in double digits in five straight appearances while averaging 15.4/5.2/1.6 on 62.5% shooting during that span.

Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5)

Make no mistake about it, a matchup versus Rudy Gobert does not limit Anthony Davis’ ceiling on this NBA slate. Not only is he a candidate to lead all players in fantasy points scored, but he has a tremendous floor for someone of his position on the pricing grid. Over his last two appearances, AD has averaged 29/17/2 on 53.8% shooting, amassing four blocks per game. After sitting out the second half of a back-to-back the other night, not only is the Lakers star rested, but there is no one more crucial to this team at the moment.

Honorable Mentions:

Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder (+1.5)
New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors (OTB)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Feb. 1)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

There are tremendous matchups on this NBA slate. Many elite stars take the court, with multiple injury reports expecting to be lengthy. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves (+2.5)

Golden State Warriors (-2.5)

The defending NBA Champions are currently slated in the Play-In tournament, but no one in the league wants to face this team. Every game counts for them down the stretch, as they look to creep into a top-4 seed to gain homecourt advantage in the opening round of the playoffs. Steph Curry will continue to lead the way and is in a phenomenal matchup tonight. Minnesota lacks perimeter defense and guarding Curry is a daunting task. Over his last three games, Curry has posted 30 or more points in each appearance. Moreover, he has averaged 35.7/5.7/8.7 on 58.3% shooting during that span, including 53.3% from behind the arc on 5.3 three-pointers made per night.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+2.5)

Anthony Edwards continues to lead the charge for a reeling Timberwolves squad. However, he lacks upside on this slate given his positioning on the pricing grid. Thus, the duo of D’Angelo Russell and Rudy Gobert are enticing in good individual matchups. Edwards will draw Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins on defense, leaving Russell ample room to find his shot. Moreover, Rudy Gobert will take few shot attempts in this one, but has point/dollar upside given his strong chance of getting a double-double. On an NBA slate where most will look to the top of the pricing grid at the center position, Gobert makes for an excellent tournament play.

Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs (+7.5)

Sacramento Kings (-7.5)

The Kings hold the third seed in the Western Conference but have many teams approaching them. Thus, not even a matchup against the lowly Spurs should be taken lightly. The duo of Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox are both in terrific matchups. San Antonio currently ranks 28th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers and Fox has registered 29 and 32 points, respectively, over his last two games, averaging 30.5/4/5 on 45.1% shooting. Moreover, the Spurs have solid interior defense with Jakob Poeltl manning the paint, but Sabonis will dominate the glass versus a team that sits 20th in the league in rebounding.

San Antonio Spurs (+7.5)

If there is ever a spot to play Keldon Johnson with confidence, it’s in this matchup. While the Spurs continue to look toward the future, Johnson figures to be a crucial piece in their rebuild. Moreover, he leads the team with a 28.1% usage rate this season. Despite a 1-7 record over the team’s last eight games, Johnson has scored 20 or more points in seven of those. He has averaged 25.4/5/2.4 on 48.8% shooting during that span, and gets a matchup versus a Kings defense that ranks last in the NBA versus combo wings.

Toronto Raptors @ Utah Jazz (-3.5)

Toronto Raptors (+3.5)

In the absence of OG Anunoby, other players in this Toronto rotation must step up. Over the last few NBA slates, no one has been as popular as Precious Achiuwa. He has now scored in double digits over his last eight games, averaging 15.6/9.3/1 on 59.3% shooting. The Jazz rank last in the league versus small-ball centers despite ranking second in the league in points allowed in the paint per game. Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam also make for excellent tournament plays.

Utah Jazz (-3.5)

While Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, and Mike Conley have solidified their place in the Jazz rotation, the true value here lies in the paint. Walker Kessler has been having a phenomenal rookie campaign, averaging 7.7/7.3 on 71.5% shooting. Moreover, he sits fourth in the NBA in blocks per game with 2.0. However, with Toronto running a smaller lineup, do not overlook Jarred Vanderbilt. Make sure to check our proprietary projections to see which of the two is set to give the most value.

Honorable Mentions:

Portland Trail Blazers @ Memphis Grizzlies (-5.5)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets (+5.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Jan. 23)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

There are plenty of great matchups tonight in the NBA. Unfortunately, many players continue to be sidelined with injuries. However, many unfamiliar names have stepped up for their respective teams. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets (+6.5)

Minnesota Timberwolves (-6.5)

In the second matchup between these two teams in only three days, all eyes will be on Anthony Edwards. The former #1 overall draft pick exploded for 44/6/4 on Saturday, making him likely to be one of the popular options on this NBA slate. Over his last seven games, Edwards has scored 20 or more points in six appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 27/5.3/5 during that span, shooting 46.9% from the field. With the Rockets ranked 28th in defensive rating, Edwards is set to continue leading this offense.

Houston Rockets (+6.5)

Should Rudy Gobert miss a fourth consecutive game, Alperen Sengun is an elite target in the mid range of the pricing grid. Over his last eight games, Sengun has logged 28 or more minutes in every appearance. Moreover, he has averaged 19.1/11.1/5.9 during that span, displaying both finishing and playmaking ability. With Gobert on the sidelines, Minnesota has a 115.1 net defensive rating, which would currently rank 25th in the NBA.

Charlotte Hornets @ Utah Jazz (-7.5)

Charlotte Hornets (+7.5)

Exposure to the Hornets is contingent on the availability of LaMelo Ball. After missing Saturday’s game with an ankle injury, Ball has since been upgraded to questionable for this matchup. However, should he eventually be ruled out, Terry Rozier will lead the charge on offense. On the season, Rozier is second on the team with a 26.9% usage rate, producing 1.03 fantasy points per minute. However, with Ball off the court, Rozier sees increases to a usage rate of 30.2% and 1.09 points per minute. The Jazz struggle more off the ball than with primary ball handlers, ranking 27th in the NBA versus the former.

Utah Jazz (-7.5)

Although Kelly Olynyk is nearing a return to the lineup, the future of the Jazz in the paint lies in Walker Kessler. Despite having a low 12.8% usage rate on the year, Kessler has been on the best from the most recent NBA draft class. He not only has three double-doubles over his last four games, but he is also averaging 12.5/12.5/1.8 on nearly 70% shooting during that span. Moreover, despite logging 29 minutes per game, Kessler is fourth in the NBA in blocks, averaging 2.0 per night.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings (+2.5)

Memphis Grizzlies (-2.5)

Memphis is on the second half of a back-to-back so there could be addition to their injury report throughout the day. Believe it or not, this game features two of the best in the Western Conference, as Sacramento shockingly finds themselves in the third seed. Despite an improved defensive system for the Kings, they lack the ability to close out on wings. Thus, Desmond Bane is the player to watch tonight, alongside Ja Morant. The former has battled injuries this year, but has been performing quite well. He carries a 26.7% usage rate on the season, averaging 21.6 points per game in over 30 minutes per night.

Sacramento Kings (+2.5)

While Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox are both worthy on an NBA All-Star selection, it will be tough to fit one of them in NBA lineups tonight with other priorities. Thus, both Kevin Huerter and Harrison Barnes find themselves as options. The former gets a favorable matchup on the perimeter versus a Memphis defense that ranks 22nd in three-pointers allowed per game. Thus far, Huerter has shot 41.4% from deep, making 2.9 three-pointers per night. Moreover, Barnes has scored 20 or more points in four of his last five appearances. Sporting a 19.1% usage rate during that span, Barnes has averaged 22.8 points per game on 53.2% shooting.

Honorable Mentions:

Atlanta Hawks @ Chicago Bulls (-1.5)
San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers (-8.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Jan. 19)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

There are only five games on the schedule tonight, but there sure is plenty of firepower. Headlining the main slate is a rematch of last year’s NBA Finals, while Chicago and Detroit face off in an afternoon game overseas. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics (-5.5)

Golden State Warriors (+5.5)

This is the second time these teams face one another since the NBA Finals. The matchup in December was no letdown, seeing the Warriors take a 123-107 victory at home. Tonight, this game will be overlooked because of interest in other studs at the top of the pricing grid. As popular as Damian Lillard will be because of his recent play, Steph Curry makes for an excellent pivot in tournaments. Since returning from injury, Curry struggled mightily over his first three games back. He averaged a mere 19.7/5/3.3 on 44.9% shooting, hitting only 31.3% of his three-pointers. However, on the second half of a back-to-back and in his fourth game returning, Curry exploded for 41/7/2 versus the Wizards.

Boston Celtics (-5.5)

Should Jaylen Brown miss this game with a groin injury, Jayson Tatum instantly becomes one of the best studs on the NBA slate. On the season, Tatum has averaged 31.1/8.3/4.3 through a 32.9% usage rate. This has resulted in Tatum posting 1.41 fantasy points per minute. However, with Brown off the court, Tatum sees his usage rate increase to 35.8% and his output increases slightly to 1.43 fantasy points per minute. Brown did practice on Wednesday, meaning he in likely to suit up. Thus, both Marcus Smart and Robert Williams III make for good plays in a competitive game environment. The former will be on the court in all clutch moments, while the latter has logged 27 or more minutes in three straight games since having his minutes restriction lifted.

Toronto Raptors @ Minnesota Timberwolves (+3.5)

Toronto Raptors (-3.5)

If the NBA slate is starving for value on the pricing grid, then two Raptors will be the primary path to success. Having the luxury of running a tight rotation thanks to players with incredible length, Coach Nick Nurse focuses on seven players on a nightly basis. Thus, two of Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, and Gary Trent Jr. fit the scenario of a balanced lineup structure. VanVleet has been lights out in the last two games, posting 30+ points in back-to-back appearances. Meanwhile, Trent Jr. has been logging serious minutes and scoring in bunches as well. Barnes is the unicorn of the roster, playing and guarding positions one through five. If value is needed on this slate, Precious Achiuwa continues to be the first player off the bench and carries a relatively safe floor.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+3.5)

Exposure to this offense depends on two key injury statuses: Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert. The latter was ruled out of Wednesday’s game with a groin injury, while the former continues to deal with a recurring hip soreness. Should Gobert be ruled out once again, Naz Reid will be a staple for NBA lineups tonight. Reid carries a 23% usage rate and 1.14 fantasy points per minute this season. However, in four starts this season, he has averaged 20.3/8 this season through a 25.4% usage rate. Moreover, D’Angelo Russell and Jaylen Nowell are in line for big roles tonight, only if Edwards be ruled out.

Honorable Mentions:

Brooklyn Nets @ Phoenix Suns (OTB)
Philadelphia 76ers @ Portland Trail Blazers (+2.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/06

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

There are a ton of good matchups on the NBA schedule tonight. Unfortunately for fans, many stars of the game have already been ruled out. However, this makes this slate interesting for fantasy purposes. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Brooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Pelicans (+4.5)

Brooklyn Nets (-4.5)

No NBA team is on a better run than the Nets. Before losing to the Bulls the other night, Brooklyn had strung together 12 wins in a row and are now 12-1 in their last 13 games. During that stretch, the duo of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving have been phenomenal. The two lead the team in usage rate at 32.1% and 30.9%, respectively. Moreover, they have combined for 59 points per game. With Zion Williamson out for the Pelicans, Kevin Durant has a tremendous matchup versus the Pelicans’ wings. However, Kyrie Irving has scored 20 or more points in 11 of the team’s last 13 games, averaging 28.9/6.1/5.1 on 52.9% shooting. The two will combine for a ton of shots tonight, and either one makes for a great play.

New Orleans Pelicans (+4.5)

In the absence of both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, the Pelicans duo of CJ McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas will be two of the most rostered players on the NBA slate. However, expectations need to be tempered. The Nets are no longer a team that can be easily beat in their own half of the court. Over the last ten games, they have the third-best defensive rating in the league. Moreover, they are now a top-10 defense in the NBA. Despite the interior presences of Nic Claxton and Ben Simmons, Valanciunas has the higher upside between he and his teammate. Over his last six games, Valanciunas has four double-doubles and has averaged 12.7/11.2/1.8 on 44.9% shooting.

Washington Wizards @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)

Washington Wizards (+1.5)

This game will be overlooked on a large NBA slate and it really should not be. Not only is it one of the best game environments, but a key injury to Bradley Beal opens up this Washington rotation. The Thunder currently rank 26th in the NBA against true centers, and we want to exploit their interior defense. On the season, Kristaps Porzingis has a 27.5% usage rate and 1.28 fantasy points per minute. However, with Beal off the court, these increase to a 29.8% usage rate and 1.34 fantasy points per minute. If you are reluctant to commit to KP at the top of the pricing grid, Daniel Gafford makes for an intriguing tournament play, as does Rui Hachimura, only if Gafford (elbow) misses this game.

Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)

By now, everyone should know just how good Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been playing this season. He is far and away the top talent and fantasy player on a rebuilding Thunder team. However, similarly to Porzingis, there are other options if the salary is worrisome. In the absence of two frontcourt players, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Aleksej Pokusevski, the field has been searching for a replacement big man. However, it has been Josh Giddey that has reaped the benefits. Not only is he the leading rebounder on the team, but he has seen an increase in both scoring and usage rate. Over his last four games, Giddey has three 20-point efforts. Moreover, he has averaged 20.5/7.3/3.5 on 53.2% shooting, seeing a notable increase in shot attempts over his season average.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves (OTB)

Los Angeles Clippers (OTB)

I wanted to touch on this game because the Clippers are on the second half of a back-to-back. At the time of writing, Paul George is questionable for their game against the Nuggets. Moreover, Kawhi Leonard is a rest candidate on the second half of a back-to-back, as is John Wall, Nic Batum, and Marcus Morris. If the dominos fall with a lengthly injury report, this will be the spot for the majority of the value on a large NBA slate. Look for updates in Discord.

Minnesota Timberwolves (OTB)

There is no greater disappointment in the NBA than the Timberwolves. Despite the acquisition of Rudy Gobert in the offseason, Minnesota is actually performing worse on both ends of the court this season. However, with Karl-Anthony Towns still nursing a calf injury, there are many touches to go around on offense. Anthony Edwards will continue to lead the charge, however the Clippers boast two of the best defenders in the league in Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Should both end up sitting, Edwards carries much more upside. Elsewhere, Rudy Gobert has been the primary cause for concern over this roster. However, with a friendly matchup against a Clippers defense that ranks 22nd against centers and 18th in points allowed in the paint, he makes for an intriguing pivot to a popular Jonas Valanciunas.

Honorable Mentions:

Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5)
New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors (-3.5)
Atlanta Hawks @ Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/16

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

We’re a fourth into the NBA season and things are shaping up to be rather interesting heading into the holidays. Many teams are experiencing injuries, while others are picking up steam on both sides of the ball. Tonight, many elite game environments make this slate an intriguing one. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Sacramento Kings @ Detroit Pistons (+4.5)

Sacramento Kings (-4.5)

This is a prime spot for the Kings’ duo of stars. Both Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox find themselves in elite matchups at their respective positions. For one, the Pistons rank 29th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint and 25th in defensive rebounding. Over his last five games, Sabonis has scored 20 or more points in four appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 20.8/14.4/5.8 on 69.6% shooting and has racked up 4.2 offensive rebounds during the same span. De’Aaron Fox has been volatile as of late, only scoring 20 points once in his last seven appearances. However, his point/dollar upside in an elite game environment makes him an intriguing play for tournaments.

Detroit Pistons (+4.5)

The Pistons offense has many opportunities given the absence of Cade Cunningham. In 18 games since Cunningham last played, Bojan Bogdanovic has been carrying this offense. During that span, he leads the team with a 27.3% usage rate and has averaged 22.4/4.1/2.9 on 51.4% shooting, including 41.1% from deep. Sacramento ranks 23rd in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed on over 11 makes per game. Moreover, there is value to be had with both Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, despite the tough matchup for the latter against Sabonis.

Golden State Warriors @ Philadelphia 76ers (-7.5)

Golden State Warriors (+7.5)

Welcome to the most popular rotation in NBA DFS over the next month. Unfortunately, Steph Curry will be sidelined for the next month or so after leaving last game with a shoulder injury. Thus, Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson will carry this offense. On the season, Poole and Thompson have usage rates of 28.2% and 25.6%, respectively, while posting 1.03 and 0.98 fantasy points per minute. However, with Curry off the floor, Poole takes a significant leap. In over 400 minutes played without Curry on the floor, Poole sees an increase to 1.14 fantasy points per minute through a 35.3% usage rate. However, Thompson sees dips in both. If you think Golden State keeps this one close, Poole is your guy, albeit being one of, if not the most popular player on the NBA slate.

Philadelphia 76ers (-7.5)

This is a tricky spot for the 76ers. On one hand, this game can get out of hand quickly. However, blowouts simply cannot be predicted. Thus, there is a strong chance that Joel Embiid or James Harden lead the NBA slate in scoring. Golden State currently leads the league in pace while ranking 19th in defensive rating. Moreover, they have struggled to guard primary ball handlers, ranking 24th in the NBA. Over his last three games, Harden has averaged a whopping 22.7/6.7/14.3 on 50% shooting, including 43.5% from behind the arc. This only thing stopping Harden from dominating tonight is Joel Embiid and his love for getting to the free throw line.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)

Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.5)

This game is riddled with questionable tags for both injury reports. However, there is plenty of intrigue. Should he make his return after missing last game, D’Angelo Russell makes for an excellent tournament play. Over his last 10 games, Russell has averaged 21.4/2.8/6.6 on 52.3% shooting, including 40.5% from deep. Moreover, there could be value in the frontcourt, should Rudy Gobert be unavailable. Should this be the case, Naz Reid will instantly become one of the best values on the NBA slate and one of the most popular options in the field.

Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)

Similarly to above, should Rudy Gobert miss this game, value is here with Darius Bazley. With Jeremiah Robinson-Earl out for a few weeks, Bazley filled in at center, logging 31 minutes against Miami and posting a 12/5/2/1/1 scoring line in a tough matchup. Moreover, if Gobert plays, this game instantly becomes more competitive. Thus, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in a tremendous spot. With 23 or more points in 14 of his last 15 games, SGA has been on an absolute tear. During that span, he has averaged 31.4/4.8/6.1 on 48% shooting. Minnesota ranks 29th in the NBA against primary ball handlers, setting the stage for SGA to potentially lead the slate in scoring.

Honorable Mentions:

Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors (+1.5)
Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/14

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Plenty of games on tonight’s NBA slate but a few stand out above the rest. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Golden State Warriors @ Indiana Pacers (OTB)

Golden State Warriors (OTB)

This will be an injury report to monitor throughout the day. While there is no clear path to take as of yet, there will be one once the NBA slate locks, as this is the first one on it. Klay Thompson has sat out back-to-backs this season, and he continues to rehabilitate from multiple ACL injuries. Moreover, Draymond Green is a rest candidate, Andrew Wiggins is out with a groin injury, and Steph Curry looked hobbled by the end of yesterday’s game against the Bucks. Thus, Jordan Poole can be one of the most popular players on the slate, depending on how this one shakes out.

Indiana Pacers (OTB)

Depending on who plays for the Warriors, there are different ways to get exposure to the Pacers in an elite game environment. The Warriors currently lead the NBA in pace, while the Pacers rank 5th. Thus, there will be a ton of offense in this one and getting exposure to both sides is a strong start to any NBA lineup tonight. Tyrese Haliburton has upside in this matchup given that the Warriors rank 23rd against primary ball handlers. Moreover, the duo of Buddy Hield and Myles Turner can do damage in the midrange of the pricing grid.

Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs (+6.5)

Portland Trail Blazers (-6.5)

This is a risky spot for the Trail Blazers. While they are heavily favored, Vegas does not have this as a landslide victory. Thus, be cautious with exposure but feel confident enough to get a piece of this high scoring game. Damian Lillard is the main contributor on offense, but this is a favorable matchup for Anfernee Simons as a tournament play. San Antonio currently ranks last in the NBA against off-ball guards, allowing over 44 fantasy points per game to the player type. Moreover, the Spurs rank last in three-point shooting percentage allowed and 23rd in three-pointers allowed per game. With Simons being one of three players to hoist up over ten three-pointers per night, he has the chance to lead the team in scoring tonight.

San Antonio Spurs (+6.5)

While the trio of Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, and Tre Jones will shoulder the offense once again, there will be value in this Spurs frontcourt. Jakob Poeltl remains out and Zach Collins is listed as doubtful to play. Thus, a combination of Jeremy Sochan, Keita Bates-Diop, Charles Bassey, and Isaiah Roby will see the bulk of minutes in a favorable matchup. Portland currently ranks 26th in the NBA against centers while being 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game. Look for updates in our projections for further direction.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5)

Minnesota Timberwolves (+6.5)

This game brings us back to a duo that won us a ton of money on Monday night. Despite the field loving Anthony Edwards, I preached the upside of Rudy Gobert as a pivot and tonight is the same case. While the Clippers are known to go with smaller lineups, they will have no choice to roll Ivica Zubac for more time, as the Timberwolves simply cannot match the Clippers’ small ball lineup with Towns still out. Thus, Gobert has massive upside in this matchup. The Clippers currently rank 24th in the NBA against true centers. Moreover, Gobert has three double-doubles in his last four games, averaging 19.5/15.8/1.5 on 66% shooting.

Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5)

I preached the upside of Kawhi Leonard in his last matchup and boy did he come through! Not only was he rostered by a mere 5% of the field that night, but Kawhi dropped 47 fantasy points in 29 minutes. Tonight, we’re going right back to the well. While on a “minutes limit”, Leonard has now seen 28 or more minutes in his last four contests. That is more than enough to do significant damage on this NBA slate. The Timberwolves currently rank 28th against wings, struggling mightily with their 3-and-D rotation. In his last contest, Kawhi dropped 25/9/6 on 83.3% shooting and I expect more of the same tonight, even despite an expected dip in efficiency.

Honorable Mentions:

Sacramento Kings @ Toronto Raptors (-5.5)
Miami Heat @ Oklahoma City Thunder (+4.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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