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Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (June 28)

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

After MLB blessed us with a massive 15-game slate of MLB DFS last night, we’re right back at it with another huge slate as we have 13 games to work with tonight. Anytime there’s this many games, we’ll have plenty of options to pick from with our pitching and stacking. With it being such a big slate, the first thing we’ll want to do is eliminate as much junk as we can. And there’s plenty of junk on this slate to get rid of.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Kodai Senga vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The New York Mets’ starters so far have left the Brewers scoreless through the first 2 games of this series. Justin Verlander did it on Monday and then David Petersen did it last night. The only reason the Mets haven’t won both games is thanks to a 2-run bomb that Drew Smith gave up after Verlander exited thanks to throwing a million pitches through the first 5 innings.

Tonight, the Mets will turn the ball over to Senga and he stands a really solid chance of limiting damage also tonight. The only thing that has really held Senga back in his first season in the Majors is his propensity to give out free passes to hitters. If he can command his pitches tonight and get the ball over the plate, the Mets should be able to win their second game of this 4-game series. This Brewers lineup is bad and the Mets starters have exploited that. They’ll do it again tonight.

Blake Snell vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

This is the Blake Snell the Padres were hoping for when they traded for him back in 2020. He’s been brilliant over the last month. Over his last 31 innings of work, Snell has struck out more than 44% of the batters he’s faced, he’s pitched to a .29 ERA (his xFIP is 1.82), and has allowed a WHIP of .71. He’s finally pitching like the ace everyone thought he would eventually turn into.

Do I expect him to continue at this pace for much longer? I don’t know, but I’m going to take advantage of it until the flame burns out. With a matchup against the Pirates today, I don’t think that happens just yet. The Pirates have improved this season, but a lot of that improvement we saw earlier this season has somewhat washed away. Look for Snell to continue with his dominance tonight.

Other pitchers I like today will be Aaron Nola vs. Chicago, Logan Allen vs. KC, and Braxton Garrett vs. Boston.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Baltimore Orioles vs. Luke Weaver

Oh do the Orioles get a sweet matchup today vs. Luke Weaver. Weaver has been atrocious over the last month. Over his last 5 outings, he’s given up 23 ER. 10 of those ER have come in his last 2 outings. Having to face a lineup as deep as the Orioles today is going to be a huge test for the Reds’ right-hander. There is little that Weaver has done well over the last month.

His WHIP is pushing 2, his contact rate is nearly 88%, and he has a minuscule chase rate of just 23%. The Orioles should have a field day against him on the first day without rain in what seems like forever. With Weaver, I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits. He’s bad against both sides of the plate. Like really bad.

While I’m going to lay out my preferred bats here, the entire lineup tonight will be in play. My priority bats here are going to be Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson, and Ryan O’Hearn. All three of these guys have crushed righties this season and should be able to get to Weaver tonight. Santander has been swinging the hottest stick of all as he has 8 hits in his last 25 AB. 3 of those hits have left the ballpark.

After those 3, I’ll also look to get in Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, and Austin Hays. I will add though that Rutschman is in a bit of a funk right now. That said, there’s no better slump-buster than Luke Weaver.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Kyle Freeland

The Dodgers get just a glorious matchup today vs. Kyle Freeland. Freeland has been really bad over the last month. His ERA over the last 30 days is 6 and his xFIP is just a shade under there. He’s someone that gives up exactly what we look for when stacking. His hard-hit rate against over the last month is 39% and his flyball rate is nearly 40%.

He’s also given up 12 barrels in his last 27 innings of work. With how much contact Freeland gives up, he’s going to get destroyed by the Dodgers tonight. I’m going to give righties a slight edge in this matchup. Righties have a slightly higher ISO and wOBA vs. Freeland this season and that’s consistent with his career.

Don’t be scared to go to the back of this lineup tonight. Last night, the Dodgers had 8 hits. 7 of those hits came from 5-9 in the batting order. They are also going to be considerably cheaper. That doesn’t mean that guys like Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are bad plays. They are far from it.

We can just get different here and save some money by going with guys like J.D. Martinez, Miguel Vargas, and Miguel Rojas. They are riskier than guys at the top of the order, but they’ll be lower-owned in a phenomenal matchup. That said, guys like Betts and Will Smith are going to be great plays in this matchup. All Dodgers are in play tonight.

Other bats I like tonight will be Oakland vs. Domingo German, Tampa vs. Zach Davies, and Texas vs. Joey Wentz

MLB DFS Summary

Unfortunately, tonight’s still a Coors night and fading the Dodgers against Freeland is going to be tough. There are still though a bunch of teams in really great spots tonight.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 26)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Wednesday and that means we have a split slate on our hands. There’s a 5-game starting at 1pm est and an 8-game slate starting at 6:35pm est. This article will be focused solely on the main slate of MLB DFS starting this evening. It’s a doozy with some clear mismatches.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Bryce Elder vs. Miami Marlins

The pick on the Marlins tour turns to Bryce Elder tonight. So far in this series we’ve seen Spencer Strider strike out 13 and Charlie (AARP cardholder) Morton strike out 9. While Elder doesn’t necessarily have the K upside that Strider and Morton have, he has been consistent with at least 6 K’s in 3 of his 4 starts this season.

With facing the Marlins and their 24% K rate vs. righties, there’s definitely a chance for Elder to grab a couple of extra strikeouts tonight. His price has started to get up there at $9.4k, but that matchup tonight speaks for itself. He should be able to pay off his salary tonight.

Steven Matz vs. San Francisco Giants

I said this the other day with Jordan Montgomery, lefties vs. the Giants will be a thing this season. Montgomery went on to have a pretty nice outing, striking out 6 through 6 innings and not allowing a single earned run. We’ll continue to pick on them with competent lefties and tonight we’ll do so with the kid from Long Island, Steven Matz.

Matz being only $6k on DK tonight makes him arguably the top-value pitcher tonight. He may not net us 30 points tonight, but he’s been over 10 in 3 of his first 4 starts and the one he didn’t was in Colorado so he gets somewhat of a pass. He has 13 K’s over his last 2 games and with facing a team that has a 31% K rate vs. lefties tonight, he has extreme upside at this price.

In full transparency, these are the only 2 arms I’m looking at tonight. Other arms that may do ok are Logan Gilbert and Kodai Senga. Senga’s biggest issue has been walks. If he can get some more control of his pitches, he should dominate but he’s definitely struggling with command.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Chicago Cubs vs. Michael Wacha

After shutting out the Braves on April 8, the world has essentially fallen apart for Michael Wacha. Over his last 2 starts, Wacha has allowed an impressive 12 ER in just over 8 innings of work. Also over those 2 starts, he’s allowed 21 hits. He’s struggling to get hitters out right now and they are getting good wood on him as he’s allowed 9 barrels this season.

I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits here as Wacha has been bad vs. both sides. That said, he’s been brutal vs. lefties this season as they have a .382 ISO and a .460 wOBA.

The bats I’m mostly interested in here will be Ian Happ, Patrick Wisdom, and Nico Hoerner. Happ is the lefty here so he’s going to have a major advantage with how bad Wacha has been against lefties. Happ has been great vs. righties this year too, with a wOBA of .446.

Wisdom is off to a solid start this year, especially against righties. He has a .391 wOBA and a .380 ISO vs. them. He also lines up very well. Wacha throws his changeup 26% of the time to righties. This is a pitch that Wisdom has crushed from righties, with a .463 wOBA and a .400 ISO. Other bats I’ll look to here are Dansby Swanson, Eric Hosmer, and Trey Mancini.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Roansy Contreras

Roansy Contreras has just 1 bad start out of 4 to start to the year. I fully expect him to make it 2 out of 5 after tonight. He’s just not someone that profiles well as he gives up a ton of fly balls, doesn’t miss many bats, and also has an extremely high WHIP.

His 1.52 WHIP to start the year is one of the highest numbers of anyone on the mound today. We chase pitchers with high WHIPS because it just means there are more batters on the bases and that gives us more chances for runs.

I’m starting off my Dodgers stack with the Rookie of the Year award leader, James Outman. Outman is red hot over the last week with 4 homers and 4 barrels. His 8 wRC also leads the team. In terms of the Rookie of the Year award, he’s really in a class of his own at this point. He’s hit safely in 6 of his last 7 games and after tonight it will be 7 of 8.

Other bats we’ll look at here will be Freddie Freeman, Mookie Bets, JD Martinez, and David Peralta. From a value standpoint, Miguel Vargas should be close to the top of the list. He’s just $2.5k and is 7 for his last 22. He won’t get us much in the way of power, but at his price point if he continues to play like he has he’ll easily return value.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Luis Medina

The Oakland A’s will be turn the ball over to rookie Luis Medina tonight. Medina will be making his major league debut. While he has a fastball that reaches triple digits, he’s also been a pitcher in the minors that has had command issues. Anytime I see a young prospect coming up with command issues, I automatically want to attack him. Major League hitters are way more patient and his command issues could lead to a ton of walks.

The obvious bats here are Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. There’s not much I need to say to sell you on them. They are good, no they’re generationally good. I also really like both Brandon Drury and Hunter Renfroe here. They were both key additions for the Angels this past offseason.

Renfroe has been great for them so far this season, with 6 homers and 18 RBI. He’s also been solid vs. righties with a .279 ISO. The value bat I’m looking at here Zach Neto. He’s 7 for his last 22 and has a .899 OPS. If he can get on tonight, there’s a great chance that one of Ward, Trout, or Ohtani will knock him in.

MLB DFS Summary

I didn’t name them in my top stacks, but a full game stack of that A’s/Angels game is very much in play. The A’s have shown the ability to put up runs and Sandoval has one of the higher xFIPS of anyone pitching tonight. They could definitely do some damage tonight.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 3)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday edition of Aces and Bases for the 2023 season, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Tonight we have a nice-sized 11-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. We’re not quite through the first rotation of most team’s staff. That means pitching will be kind of blah tonight as we are essentially at the back end of most rotations. The good is that it means plenty of offense. The bad, is that it means pitching will be really tough to nail down.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Hunter Brown vs. Detroit Tigers

The Houston Astros will turn the ball over to top prospect Hunter Brown tonight. In a small cup of tea last year, Brown was really good. In his 20 innings of work, Brown struck out 27.5% of the batters he faced and did a nice job of limiting hard contact as hitters had a sub-30 % hard-hit rate vs. him. While we can’t expect him to continue with the .89 ERA that he had last year, he did pitch to an xFIP under 3 last season. Brown also had a phenomenal chase rate of nearly 32% last season. Of all the pitchers throwing today, no one outside of Matthew Boyd and his 13 innings of work last year had more hitters chasing.

This is just not a good Tigers lineup and one that Brown should easily navigate through. Through the first 3 games of the season, this Tigers lineup has scored just 3 runs. Not 4, not 5, not 6, just 3 runs. They are awful and I feel bad that Miguel Cabrera’s last season in baseball will be part of this atrocious lineup. Houston and Brown are huge favorites tonight. While nothing is guaranteed, feel confident throwing out Brown tonight.

Drew Rasmussen vs. Washington Nationals

Yes, pitching is so bad that the next pitcher I’m recommending is Drew Rasmussen. Rasmussen isn’t actually that bad of a pitcher, he’s actually pretty good. He just doesn’t strike many out. He had a K rate in 2022 of just over 21%. That’s not ideal for MLB DFS as K’s are king. That said, pitching is bad tonight and the pitchers that actually did have high K rates last year are not in good matchups.

While Rasmussen won’t get many K’s tonight, he should be able to do a great of limiting damage. This Nationals lineup has been bad to start the year. Through their first 3 games, they’ve scored just 7 runs for an average of just 2 per game. Tampa is one of the bigger favorites on the board. The K’s won’t be there for him tonight, but Rasmussen should be able to go long enough in this one to get the W and pay off his $8.1k DK salary tonight.

Nestor Cortes vs. Philadelphia Phillies

This is a high-risk/potentially high-reward pick. Nestor Cortes had by far the best season of his career in 2022. He set career highs in wins, innings pitched, ERA, and xFIP. Basically any meaningful stat, Cortes improved last year. He does a great job of throwing hitters off with his quirky mechanics.

This is a really good Phillies lineup, but not quite the lineup they expected to have to start the year. Harper is out recovering from TJ surgery and Hoskins is out for the year after tearing his ACL at the end of Spring Training. Cortes should be able to neutralize Schwarber tonight as he’s absolutely dominant vs. lefties. This is low-key a really good spot for Cortes and he should be able to give the Phillies hitters a ton of fits tonight. He’s risky, but could potentially be the highest-scoring pitcher on the night.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals

The Tampa Bay Rays get to take on journeyman starter Trevor Williams. Williams isn’t an awful pitcher, but he’s also not a good pitcher. He’s an average one at best and one that should struggle with this Tampa lineup tonight. Williams is a flyball pitcher and if he’s off his game just a smidge tonight, there should be some homers tonight in DC as the weather should be perfect for early April baseball.

Core: My Tampa core will be built around Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena. Franco is off to a red-hot start to the 2023 campaign. Through his first 11 AB, Franco has 7 hits. Of those 7, 4 have been for extra-base hits. This is the type of environment tonight where he should continue with this early success in the year. I also really like Aroz here. Through his first 3 games, Aroz has already scored 4 runs, while driving in 3. He’s as big of a part of this offense as anyone. These 2 guys should dominate tonight

Secondary/Value: Other guys I really like in this lineup tonight will be both Brandon and Josh Lowe, Yandy Diaz, and Jose Siri. All of these guys have been productive to start the year. Both Josh Lowe and Jose Siri make for excellent value plays as they are both under $3k on DK tonight.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ryan Feltner

The Dodgers get one of the best matchups on the board tonight. In nearly 100 innings in 2022, Feltner really struggled. Feltner’s final ERA in 2022 was pushing 6 at 5.83. While ERA isn’t an end-all, it does show that a pitcher struggled. He also gave up a massive hard-hit rate at nearly 36%. That’s one of the worst marks of anyone on the hill tonight and that says a lot considering what we’re working with. Feltner was pretty much split-neutral in 2022 so I’m not going to be overly concerned with worrying about what side of the plate to attack him with.

Core: My Core with the Dodgers tonight will be the 2 guys that hit at the top of the lineup and are 2 of the best hitters in the game, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Neither guy has really blown us out of the water yet, but their day is coming and that will be today in what is a cake matchup for them. Freeman is my favorite of the two though if you can only afford one of them. He gets the platoon advantage tonight and has immense upside tonight.

Secondary/Value: Other bats I like here will be Will Smith, David Peralta, and JD Martinez. Will Smith is a lot more than I normally like to spend on catchers, but he’s one of the best-hitting catchers in the game and has started out the season strong with 5 RBI and 5 hits in his first 11 AB. He also has multiple extra-base hits. Again, he’s pricey, but you could do a whole lot worse with $5k.

Boston Red Sox vs. Johan Oviedo

The Boston Red Sox offense has started out extremely strong this season. Through 3 games against the Orioles’ meager pitching staff, they were able to put up 23 runs. They’ll now get to face another below-average staff in the Pittsburgh Pirates. Expect more runs from them and expect them often. Tonight they’ll face off against Johan Oviedo. While Oviedo wasn’t awful last season, he has shown in his 2 previous stints in the bigs with the Cards that he struggles to get big leaguers out. I’m going to fully attack him tonight.

Core: My core with the Red Sox is going to be very clear. Adam Duvall, Alex Verdugo, Justin Turner, and Rafael Devers. All 4 guys are off to hot starts, with Duvall, Devers, and Turner all hitting over .400 to start the year. Outside of Devers, this stack is extremely affordable tonight. Both Turner and Duvall are under $4k tonight. They don’t get the platoon advantage, but they are near locks in my lineup.

Secondary/Value: The other 2 bats I like here will be Enrique Hernandez and Masataka Yoshida. Neither guy is a necessity, but if you can fit them in go for it as there should be some runs scored by the Red Sox tonight.

MLB DFS Summary

We have our first Monday slate of the year and it’s going to be a doozy. There are limited pitching options but there will be plenty of options for offense. Expect a high-scoring slate tonight.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Sept. 21)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Tonight we have a nice sized 9-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. We’re at the point of the season where teams are starting to jockey for playoff position, or are fighting for the playoff lives.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Robbie Ray vs. Oakland Athletics

Robbie Ray has had an up-and-down season in 2022. He’s shown flashes of the 2021 Cy Young-winning pitcher, but he’s also thrown some duds like he did last time out vs. the Los Angeles Angels. That said, I do think he has one of his better outings tonight vs. a pesky, but average at best Oakland Athletics lineup.

He’s faced the Athletics 3 times already this season and has had double-digit strikeouts in 2 of them. The projected lineup tonight for the Athletics has just a .255 wOBA against lefties over the last month and a 26% K rate. There’s definitely going to be some upside for him tonight and he’s priced fairly at just $9.6k on DK tonight.

Triston McKenzie vs. Chicago White Sox

The price is a little on the high end for what I like to pay for Triston McKenzie, but options are extremely limited tonight, especially with one of the better pitchers on the mound in Snell being in an awful matchup. McKenzie has put together a really solid season. He’s reached double-digit wins for the first time in his career and he also has the lowest ERA at just 3.08.

Over the last month 2.5 months, he’s had just 2 games allowing more than 3 ER. If we ever attack the White Sox, it’s with a right-handed pitcher. They’re extremely beatable tonight and while McKenzie is expensive, he’s proven his worth this season. He has back-to-back games over 20DK points and hasn’t been in single digits since way back in June. He has sneaky upside tonight as the last time he faced the White Sox he K’d 14 of them.

Bailey Ober vs. Kansas City Royals

I said options were limited tonight and I meant it. Ober is cheap tonight at just $7.7k on DK and gets a really solid matchup vs. a bad Royals team, a team that is on pace to lose well over 90 games this season. Their lineup has been more anemic than usual as they’ve scored just 15 runs over the last month.

The lineup that Ober is expected to face tonight has a .296 wOBA vs. righties over the last month and just a .108 ISO. Ober hasn’t pitched much this season due to injury, but his first start coming off the IL was very solid, allowing just 1 hit in 5 innings against the Guardians. He was also able to strike out 5 in that game. Against a much weaker Royals lineup, he should be able to come close to that again tonight. He’s a solid value SP2 tonight. Pairing him with Ray gives you more than $4k per batter on DK tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Madison Bumgarner

This is the matchup that dreams are made of. The Dodgers tonight get the best matchup of the day as they’ll be taking on a pitcher in Madison Bumgarner that just continues to struggle night in and night out when he’s on the mound. MadBum got shelled in his last outing, allowing 5 ER in 5 innings of work, while allowing 3 homers to the Padres. He continues to give up just a ton of hard contact.

Over the last month, he’s given up a hard-hit rate of over 42% and has allowed 11 barrels in his last 19 innings of work. MadBum has been especially bad against righties over the last month. They have a .319 ISO vs. him and a .429. While they will be my priority tonight, lefties won’t need to be ignored as they’ve been crushing him too.

Core: My core with the Dodgers tonight will be the trio of Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and former Met Justin Turner. I don’t need to get into much detail about Betts and Turner. They are 2 of the better hitters in the game, especially against lefties. Betts has been absolutely crushing lefties over the last month with a .556 ISO and a .504 wOBA. He’s expensive at $6k on DK tonight, but on FanDuel he’s somehow just $3.5k. Someone was asleep at the wheel when they set that and he’s a must-play over there.

Justin Turner has also been crushing lefties recently. Over his last 20 AB, he has a .333 ISO and a .567 wOBA against them. At $4.7k on DK tonight, he’s absolutely in play with how well he’s handled lefties.

Secondary Pieces/Value: After my core, I’ll look to use the rest of the Dodgers lineup where they fit as the entire team will be in play tonight. The 3 guys at the back of this lineup will provide us a ton of value in a great spot. Trayce Thompson, Hanser Alberto, and Miguel Vargas are all under $3k tonight and will give us a ton of flexibility with our payroll tonight. They’ll make paying up for Betts and Tuner much easier to swallow.

Minnesota Twins vs. Daniel Lynch

While Daniel Lynch has shown some promise, he’s still shown that he is young and makes a ton of mistakes. He has 3 consecutive starts allowing multiple homers, with one of those being against this same Twins team a week ago. Over his last 23 innings of work, Lynch has allowed 7 homers and a 38% hard-hit rate.

Until he can control the homers, he’s someone we should always consider stacking against. Especially with a high-powered offense like the Twins. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits against Lynch. Over the last month, both sides of the plate have crushed him. He’s especially bad against lefties as they have a .532 wOBA during that stretch.

Core: My priority with the Twins tonight will be Carlos Correa and Gio Urshela. Combined, these two will cost us an average of $4.2k which isn’t too bad. Carlos Correa has been on fire over the last month vs. lefties, with a .579 wOBA and a .750 ISO. He’s also coming into this one hot as he has 8 hits over his last 14 AB. Although the Twins have been a huge disappointment this season, it hasn’t been due to Correa.

Next up is Gio Urshela. Urshela has also been very strong vs. lefties over the last month, with a .469 wOBA and a .269 ISO. He should continue with that strong hitting tonight with this matchup.

Secondary: Next up I’ll look to include guys like Jose Miranda, Gary Sanchez, and Nick Gordon. Even though Gordon is in the L/L matchup tonight, Lynch has struggled with lefties his whole career. Gordon will absolutely be a K risk but he has also sneaky power as he one of the top expected slugging %’s in all of baseball this season. He’s just $3.2k and is really hot right now, with 5 hits in his last 8 AB. He’ll someone that has upside at a low cost and low ownership.

Texas Rangers vs. Tucker Davidson

No team has been a bigger disappointment this season than the Texas Rangers, in real life and MLB DFS. They were expected to compete for a playoff spot this year but have already been eliminated. That said, they get a good matchup tonight vs. Tucker Davidson. This is also a team that has performed significantly better vs. southpaws this season than righties. In Davidson, we have a pitcher that has given up a 7.27 ERA over the last month and has also allowed 4 homers in 17 innings of work over that stretch.

His biggest struggle though has been his command. His BB/9 over the last month is an astounding 5.71. If the Rangers can show any level of patience tonight, they’ll get plenty of runners on. This is another matchup where we won’t need to worry about splits. Davidson has been equally bad against both sides of the plate, as each has a slugging % over .450.

Core: I’m going to start my build tonight with Nate Lowe, Marcus Semien, and Adolis Garcia. Lowe is someone that i love using in L/L matchups. Over the last month Lowe has a wOBA over .400 vs. lefties. On the year, he’s hitting .341 against them and has a .553 slugging %. He excels in these matchups and is reasonably priced at $4.2k on DK.

Next up will be Marcus Semien. Semien has been hitting the ball well recently, with 6 hits in his last 17 AB. He’s also had a 46% hard-hit rate over that stretch. He should dominate in this matchup tonight.

Value: After my core with the Rangers, I’ll look to grab value. And they’ll have a ton of it tonight. Mark Mathias, Josh Jung, Leody Tavares, Sam Huff, and Bubba Thompson are all under $3k tonight and will provide for flexibility. My favorite of the bunch will be Jung as he’s been solid since being called up. Over 19 plate appearances against lefties, he has a .421 ISO and a .423 wOBA. He’s as solid of a value as we’ll see tonight.

MLB DFS Summary

Other MLB DFS stacks I really like tonight will be the Mariners vs. James Kaprielian and both sides of the Coors game.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

3 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Stack City (Apr. 14)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Tonight’s slates are going to be a bit odd. FanDuel has decided to add the 6:35/6:40 games while DraftKings has not. That 6:35 game between the Nationals/Pirates has the chance to be an MLB DFS friendly game so I’ll be including a FanDuel-only stack for those playing on FanDuel tonight.

Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Stacks – Main Slate

Colorado Rockies vs. Justin Steele

I try to avoid writing up hitters in Coors because it’s always such an obvious spot. It’s a hitters paradise and with limited options tonight, I’m going there. Steele pitched pretty well against the Brewers in his season debut. He was able to shut them out through 5 innings and only gave up 4 hits.

Steele did a great job keeping hitters off balance as they only had a 41% swing rate even though he lived in the zone almost 50% of the time. That said, pitching in Coors is a different animal and if we dig into Steele’s repertoire the Rockies are in good shape tonight.

While Steele throws his fastball around 44% of the time to righties, he also throws a sinker almost a quarter of the time as it’s his main secondary pitch. The first guy that comes to mind in this matchup is Connor Joe. While it’s a limited sample size, Joe has great numbers vs. this pitch. Last season he had a .636 slugging % against sinkers. I love him in this matchup tonight.

CJ Cron will also make my Colorado stack as he has similar numbers to Joe, but a much larger sample size. Last season his slugging % was .576 against sinkers. These two both have the ability to do some damage against Steele tonight. With the Rockies, I’ll also make sure to mix in Kris Bryant and Brendan Rogers. Steele has a much tougher assignment tonight with the Rockies than he did with the Brewers. I do expect him to come back down to earth after his first outing.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cessa/Sanmartin

The Reds are using Cessa as an opener today and will most likely then go to Sanmartin since he was originally scheduled to throw today. This is a plus matchup for the Dodgers against both pitchers. Sanmartin struggled in his 2022 debut, giving up 5 ER in just 2 and a third innings vs. the Braves. Sanmartin hasn’t pitched much in the Majors yet, but so far from what we’ve seen is he really good against lefties, but struggles against righties as they have a .393 wOBA against him.

The Dodgers bats finally came alive yesterday, putting up 7 runs against Chris Paddack and the Twins. With an even better matchup today, I expect more of the same. I’m going to focus my efforts here with guys on the right side. The Dodgers have two of the best in the game in Mookie Betts and Trea Turner.

While those 2 will more than likely be my core in this lineup, Justin Turner, Will ‘not the one that slapped Chris Rock’ Smith, and Chris Taylor are the guys in this lineup that are very reasonably priced at $4.1k and below. Putting those guys in your lineup will help you afford the bigger bats.

Washington Nationals vs. Brubaker (FD Only)

The Nationals are in a great spot to produce tonight. JT Brubaker is just not a pitcher I’ll ever shy away from stacking against when playing MLB DFS. He now has 36 appearances in the big leagues and it’s been a struggle for him. While he induces a ton of ground balls at a 44% rate throughout his young career, when he does give up flyballs they tend to leave the park.

Last year his HR/FB% was 22%. That’s just not a good percentage. Both righties and lefties have similar numbers against him in terms of power, but I’m going to side with the lefties in this matchup because their flyball % jumps to 37% compared to just 28% for righties.

While Juan Soto is the premier name here and he’ll be in my core, Josh Bell is the guy that has been on fire so far to start the season. Over the first week of the season, Bell has 2 homers and an OPS of 1.049. The main pitch that he and his buddy Soto will see tonight from Brubaker is a slider. Both of them have great numbers vs. sliders. Soto has a .300 ISO against them and Bell has a .229 ISO. These guys are set up to do extremely well tonight.

Outside of those 2, Keibert Ruiz will also be an important piece to this stack. He’s started out the season hitting the ball hard with multiple barrels already and a 50% flyball rate. The Nationals will be a team this season where we’ll want to pick and choose our spots, this is one of those spots today if you’re playing on FanDuel.

Other Stacks I really like today are the Tigers vs. Greinke, Royals vs. Mize, and the Cubs vs. Freeland.

MLB DFS Main Slate Summary

We have a Coors slate! While I tend to try to find ways to avoid Coors when playing MLB DFS, we have limited options with a 6 and 8 game slate tonight with some decent pitchers on the hill or groundball artists. I do really love the spot for the Rockies tonight and they will more than likely be my main stack on DK. On FD, Washington will be more than likely be my core and I’ll look to sprinkle in some Rockies.

Good luck today and hope to see some green tonight!

3 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces and Bases (Apr. 9)

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s five-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The biggest weather threat is in Washington for Chris Bassitt’s first start for his new team — the New York Mets! But there’s no enough rain in the area to fade him or any of the Mets’ bats considering a delay would only be likely much later in the game.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Justin Verlander ($10,400)

There isn’t an SP play on the main slate without risk, and Verlander certainly has some of that coming off TJ surgery. But even with that as a factor, the veteran has the best chance to go deeper into this game than the other arms and has the best projection from a strikeouts/IP standpoint on FanDuel. There’s enough of a gap between him and the rest of the arms to consider him the best play in both cash games and GPPs. I firmly believe that a lot of the concerns folks have about Verlander boil down to typical DFS smokescreens they’ve gleaned from some of his comments, and not actual data. The next guy might end up making sense for large-field GPPs, but Verlander always finds a way to get it done, carried a super low 3.03 and 3.18 xFIP in his last two complete seasons (2018 and 2019), and the Angels have plenty of swing-and-miss potential (and not that much pop) one we get past Ohtani and Trout.

Best GPP Option: Joe Musgrove ($10,000)

I may disagree with WinDaily’s Adam Strangis in his assessment of Verlander in his must-read MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/9 article, but I really like his support of Musgrove, who should see lower ownership as DFS participants search for value or the safety of a name like Verlander. The D-Backs are off to s slow start offensively and Musgrove could turn in a 40-point performance if he can navigate through the left-handed bats in Arizona. I can’t say I’m not concerned about the high HR/FB rates over his career, but Musgrove is a better first half pitcher with a full tank of gas — we just need it to not catch fire.

Contrarian GPP Play: Chris Bassitt ($9,700)

Bassitt finds himself out of Oakland and pitching for a new team on the road in the nation’s capital, but there’s plenty to like from a game theory perspective about using him tonight. Both SPs in this game offer GPP upside, but more could flock to Joan Adon on both sites given his punt price. Bassitt posted a respectable if somewhat inflated 3.93 xFIP last season compared to the 3.15 ERA, but he’s great at missing bats (0.86 WHIP and 9.10 K/9). Adam’s article points out that Bassitt “kept both sides of the plate under a .285 wOBA” — a stat which really stood out. You may need to use Adon in a few if you’re stacking Coors tonight, but if you want to piece together a couple of contrarian stacks and go for the big win in large-field GPPs, Bassitt could be the right path.

More GPP Value: Joan Adon, Kyle Wright

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

We’ve got another huge total Coors game tonight, and the Dodgers are more than a full run ahead of the Rockies in their projected total. That means nabbing Mookie Betts ($4,400), Freddie Freeman ($4,300) and Trea Turner ($4,500), but it would be a slap in the face if I didn’t mention Will Smith ($3,900 — see what I did there?) or Max Muncy at $3,800. It’s also a good idea to do a few wraparound stacks that include 9-hitter Gavin Lux at an affordable $2,900. They won’t be easy to fit,

The Second-best Stack: Atlanta Braves

If you’re not into playing the juggernaut Dodgers or messing around with a popular Coors Field game, you can pivot to the World Champion Atlanta Braves and their impressive projected total (>5.5) against a very hittable Vladimir Gutierrez of the Cincinnati Reds. After the obvious core (1-4) stack of Eddie Rosario ($3,000), Matt Olson ($3,800), Austin Riley ($3,900), and Ozzie Albies ($4,100), we’ve got a couple of possible value plays in Adam Duvall and Alex Dickerson. Duvall has been known to double-dong his way to GPP-winning glory, and Dickerson, if he’s the DH in the lineup, has much less upside but is very cheap for a positive-splits option in a potent lineup. I may deploy a wait-and-see approach to Marcell Ozuna until I see him getting comfortable at the plate again, but he’s also cheap at $3,000.

Value GPP Stack: San Diego Padres

Lost in the slate and the disappointment over the absence of Fernando Tatis, Jr. is a Padres lineup that still has plenty of potential and some powerful bats. I’m prioritizing Manny Machado ($3,800), Jake Cronenworth ($3,300), Trent Grisham ($3,100) and newcomer Luke Voit ($2,700), but there’s even more value in guys like Wil Myers ($2,600) and Eric Hosmer ($2,400). I love that the NL has adopted the DH because we can more easily take advantage of value stacks like the Padres with that extra big bat, and opposing pitcher Zach Davies doesn’t scare me one bit.

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 8/14 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Possibility for a stray shower that could cause a late start or brief delay at Citi Field for Dodgers-Mets, but other than that we don’t have to worry about much other than the usual weirdness in these trying times!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($11,500)

The price may prohibit us from getting all the bats we want, but there’s no denying that Buehler offers the safest option for cash games as long s the weather looks like it will hold prior to lock. The Mets are just about middle-of-the-road in K rate in MLB (23.6%), and Buehler’s pitch repertoire all but guarantees they’ll have trouble barreling him up tonight. From a MLB DFS perspective, there’s plenty of reason to steer away on GPPs and single-entry builds where we’d like to get some big bats, but there may be some sneaky stack value that could help us combine Buehler’s high floor with the hitting points necessary to nail down a solid cash game lineup.

NOTE: If you’re willing to assume a little more risk and need the extra savings, Joe Musgrove ($9,600) is also a viable option against a somewhat feckless Arizona lineup.

Best GPP Value: Luis Garcia ($7,900)

Garcia is woefully mispriced on FD and we’re going to take advantage in GPPs. In his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.14 article, Adam Strangis points out that Garcia has a great spot for production here, and that’s a DK-oriented piece where he’s actually priced at $9,900, while Buehler is just $10,600. On FD, however, we only need one SP — and Garcia’s average of 31.7 PPG (with duel season highs of 52 points coming in his last start and two of his last four starts) is a huge plus. He’s clearly our best bang for the buck against an Angels lineup that has a few bright spots but has been among the worst in the league over the past 14 days (.214/.282/.314 team slash; .264 team wOBA and 66 wRC+). Single-entry, large-field GPP — maybe even cash games — I’ll be all over Garcia tonight in MLB DFS tonight.

Contrarian GPP Play: Dylan Cease ($8,900)

The Yankees offense is very scary, but they do strike out at a 24.3% rate this season and this game will not be played in a wind tunnel Field of Dreams where any hard hit fly ball ends up in the corn. Cease is projected for over 30 FD points and he could easily exceed the 40-point mark if he can avoid the walks and big blast (he’s made big strides in 2021, lowering his BB/9% to 3.69 from 5.25 in a tumultuous 2020). He should carry low ownership against the Bronx Bombers and pitching on his home field should help a bit, as he’s posted a .267 wOBA on the South Side of Chicago, compared to .301 in road games. This is a risky play but Cease does have upside in this matchup if he can keep the Yankees off base and limit the HR damage to solo blasts.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

Taijuan Walker hasn’t been too good since the end of June, yielding a whopping .464 wOBA since the All-Star break and an almost hilarious .333/.406/.711 slash line to opposing hitters. And now, folks, he gets to face the Los Angeles Dodgers! We can focus our attention on the lefties here. making a point to include Cody Bellinger ($3,600) — who’s really been heating up — along with Corey Seager ($3,200), Max Muncy ($3,700) and finish off our four-man stack with RHB A.J. Pollock ($3,100), who’s still relatively cheap. Trea Turner is also worth a look, but he’s expensive at $4,000, and if Albert Pujols ($2,200) starts he’ll be a bargain.

GPP Value Stack: San Francisco Giants

I profited quite a bit from having almost 100% of Austin Slater ($2,500) and Wilmer Flores ($3,000) last night in the late slate contests, and we want to take advantage of their soft prices and crazy splits against LHP again tonight, as they’ll be facing Rockies SP Kyle Freeland, a southpaw with a .364 wOBA (and nine HR allowed this season in 52.0 total IP) against right-handed batters. Throw in cleanup hitter Darin Ruf ($2,700) and (future HOFer?) Buster Posey ($3,300) and you’ve got a solid and inexpensive four-man stack, viable for cash or GPP. 3B/OF.UTIL eligible Kris Bryant is also worth a look and makes sense to mix in if you can afford him at $3,900, and we have another cheap option in Donovan Solano ($2,500), who’s having an excellent second half (.307/.381/.453).

GPP Stack #2: Houston Astros

The Astros could also be popular tonight, and I’m fine starting my builds with Michael Brantley ($3,000), Yordan Alvarez ($3,900), Kyle Tucker ($3,200) and GPP wunderkind Aledmys Diaz ($2,700). Sure, we can squeeze in Jose Altuve ($3,800) if we can afford him and there’s no reason to bet against Carlos Correa ($3,500) and value option Chas McCormick ($2,300) if he gets into the lineup. Angels SP Jaime Barria has been decent since returning from Triple-A in late July, but this Astros lineup is just too good at making contact and barreling up baseballs. Don’t forget to mix in a stack or two in your GPPs.

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday, August 14

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Saturday edition of Picks and Pivots. Tonight we have a 10 game day slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.

Main Slate Breakdown

It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in for Brian while he takes a much needed and well deserved vacation.

My focus today will be the 10 game slate tonight. The afternoon slate looks extremely risky with weather impacting 3 of the 5 games. Tonight’s slate has a handful of pitching options for us as well some really solid hitting spots for us.

The pitcher’s that I’ll be focusing my efforts on tonight will be centered around three guys. Joe Musgrove ($9.1k), Dylan Cease ($9k), and Luis Garcia ($9.9k). All three have been pitching well and are in great spots tonight. Let’s start with Musgrove who gets the softest match up of the group.

The Diamondbacks have not been good of late. Over the past week they have a 32% K rate with very limited power. Musgrove’s top two pitchers are his slider and curveball. If we look at the Diamondbacks projected lineup, this is a pitch mix they all struggle with. While Musgrove isn’t someone that’s going to blow us away with double digit K’s every night, he has some serious upside in this match up if both of these pitches are on point tonight.

Next up is Cease. Cease has been on fire over the last 30 days. He has a 35% K rate and a 31% CSW. He gets a match up tonight against a powerful lineup, but one that’s been striking out a good bit recently. Over the past week they have a 31% K rate.

The projected lineup that Cease will face tonight has a 27% K rate vs. righties this season. It’s never an overly easy task facing the Yankees, but Cease is in top form. He’s definitely going to be in my pool of pitchers tonight.

The final guy I’m looking at tonight is Luis Garcia. Over the past month Garcia has an elite 37% K rate. No pitcher on tonight’s slate has been striking batters out at a quicker pace. Garcia’s top strike out pitch is his cutter.

His cutter is going to allow him to neutralize the big bats in this lineup. Ohtani, Upton, and Walsh all have whiff rates over 23% to the pitch. If Garcia can neutralize those 3, it should be smooth sailing for him tonight.

Now that we have our double aces out of the way, where are we going to go of for offense? The first place I’m looking is in Texas with the Oakland Athletics facing gas can Jordan Lyles. Lyles is someone I always look to target because of the amount of fly balls he gives up.

Over his past 29 innings of work he’s given up 13 barrels! That’s almost one every other inning. That’s bad. With the Athletics the key that unlocks all is with Mitch Moreland ($2.3k). Moreland on the year has a .203 ISO against righties and is really heating up. In his last 3 games he has 5 hits with all of them being extra base hits.

The other key I’m going to use here to unlock the big guys will be Seth Brown ($2.6k). He’s also been swinging a hot bat recently with a .961 OPS over the past week. These two guys are going to help us in bringing in bats like Marte ($6k), Lowrie ($3.9k), and Canha ($4.3k).

My next focus of offense tonight will be the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Taijuan Walker. Walker has seen a steep drop in performance month over month. He continues to give up hard hit after hard hit. Like Lyles, he has 13 barrels over the last month but in 8 less innings.

The bat here that I want to prioritize is Cody Bellinger ($4.4k) who is scorching hot. Over the past week he has 4 homers and a 1.281 OPS. He gets the platoon advantage tonight and with him being so locked in is a must play.

Other guys I’ll focus on here are Pollock ($4.3k) and Seager ($4.6k). The Dodgers have a shot at putting up a really big number tonight against Walker. As a Mets fan, it’s going to hurt using them but the match up is just too good to pass up.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Tonight I’ll be going back to double aces again. We’re going to have enough value between the Dodgers lineup and A’s lineup to fit in the bats we want from both teams. And both teams are primed to have solid days.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 8/7 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s 10-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Some light rain in Baltimore, where I’m not looking at pitchers anyway, and some normal pop-up chances in Atlanta and Cincy, but nothing tumultuous that could PPD a game we’re featuring. Giddyup!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Julio Urias ($10,000)

Urias may not have the highest upside on the slate, but both he and a pitcher to be named later offer the best chance at safety in cash games. His solid July numbers (2.30 ERA, .264 wOBA, 20% K rate, 5.6% BB rate) portend a more steady stretch in the season’s second half. The scuffling Angels have hit just .216/.271/.342 over the past week and this should not be considered a get-right spot for the halos. I’ll be plugging Urias in about half my cash and a third of my GPP lines tonight and moving on to some value stacks.

Best GPP Value: Yu Darvish ($9,600)

Last week we discussed how Darvish has struggled in July and had a good spot against the Rockies and he got lit up (including yielding a HR to the opposing pitcher, German Marquez) for 5 ER — though he did rack up 8 Ks and 27 FD points. This time we have reason to expect he can improve on those numbers and hit the 40+ threshold we’re looking for in GPPs. Adam Strangis discusses Darvish’s matchup in the 8/7 Starting Rotation article and as usual it’s a must-read. Darvish has been a reverse-splits pitcher in 2021 because of the soft contact he induces against LHB, and with the D-Backs’ featuring a slew of lefty hitters and the team K rate at 23.6% (24.4% vs. RHP), he’s once again in a great spot for GPPs.

Value Cash/Single-Entry GPP Play: Charlie Morton ($8,700)

At one point, a matchup against the Nationals would have scared me off a guy like Morton, and there may still be some oblivious DFS folks who don’t take advantage of what we’re really getting on this slate with the veteran hurler in this spot. That’s a solid floor of around 30-35 FD points and the opportunity to notch 55-60+ points if he hits his ceiling. Over his past nine starts dating back to June 17, Morton has at least 25 FD points in every one, with four in the 45+ point range and three at 52, 54 and 64 FD points. The Nats have been decimated by injuries and trades and have only or two hitters that really frighten me, so I’ll have some shares of Morton in both cash and GPPs where I may need the extra $1,000 to $1,300 to squeeze in a potent stack.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Colorado Rockies

This idea that we don’t have to tell you to play hitters n Coors has been around for quite a while, but some days you need to reiterate just how high the team total for Colorado (or in many cases their opponent) is. Today’s the home team is in a really great spot against a talented but unproven starter in Jesus Luzardo that may not be ready for the Mile-High treatment. There’s a very good avenue to some decent value in fastball-mashing Brendan Rogers ($3,500) and Elias Diaz ($3,400) before we have to pay a premium for Trevor Story ($4,300) and C.J. Cron ($4,000), and we could always mix in a guy like Yonathan Daza ($3,000). It’s not a slate we need to overthink, and getting exposure to the Rockies is a good idea on a slate where they won’t garner that high of the ownership share.

GPP Stack: Cincinnati Reds

They’ve been RED-hot as of late and just got Mike Moustakas back from the IL Damn near everybody in the lineup got in on the action last night, and now we’ve got a roster chock full of left-handed hitters looking to annihilate Mitch Keller and exceed the massive projected 6+ run total the Cincy crew is carrying into the slate. Moustakas is a ridiculous bargain at $2,500, while some of the usual suspects — Joey Votto ($4,100), Jesse Winker ($4,100), Jonathan India ($3,700) and Nick Castellanos ($3,500) — still feel underpriced somehow. Throw in Kyle Farmer ($2,900), who’s been on absolute fire in the second half (.421/.470/.671 slash line, 1.141 OPS with a 200 wRC+), and lefty Tyler Naquin ($2,900) — and you’ve got plenty of options to choose from.

Contrarian Stack: Cleveland Indians

With the majority of ownership heading to the Rockies, Reds and likley the Dodgers and Braves, I’m more than happy to give the future Guardians a chance to put up galactic numbers against a weak Detroit southpaw (Tyler Alexander) and bullpen. Getting exposure to the top four — Myles Straw ($2,600), Amed Rosario ($2,900), Jose Ramirez ($3,700), Franmil Reyes ($3,500) is optimal, and we can take a few shots with Harold Ramirez (2,400), Bobby Bradley ($2,500) and Oscar Mercado ($2,500) if we need some bargain plays. If we want to pay up for a top arm and fade Coors in some lineups, there’s a few cheap and potent bats on the Detroit end (facing the hittable Eli Morgan) to make this a full game stack! Let’s go DET-CLE!!

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 6/26 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s four-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Weather is not a huge issue, but this is a risky slate for cash games and I’d highly recommend sticking to GPPs and lower-cost single-entry.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Nathan Eovaldi ($8,200)

The options are not great. We really can’t look to Julio Urias right now with him maxing out at 5 Ks in each of his last five starts (perhaps it’s the Bauer Effect rearing its ugly head) and Frankie Montas cannot be trusted facing a lefty-heavy Giants lineup. I’m a Yankee fan, which makes recommending Eovaldi in this spot especially tough, but the price is reasonable for a guy who has 10K potential against the Bombers and their 24.7% K rate (25.2% against RHP). Facing this lineup can be a dangerous spot for ANY pitcher, so I don’t think this slate portends well for large cash game investments, and there is a stiff wind blowing out toward the monster as well. But given what he did against the Yanks on June 4 in the Bronx (6.0 IP, 0 BB, 7 K, 1 ER and 46 FD points), he’s probably got as much upside as anyone. Adam Strangis makes mention of him as an option in the 6/26 Starting Rotation piece today, so if you need further information, that’s always a good source.

Best GPP Value: Dinelson Lamet ($7,500)

It would be great if he could somehow approach the 100-pitch mark, in which case he could easily pay off this bargain price. Lamet might have a lower floor than some of the other high-dollar options, but the upside is there at his still-discounted price and he’s coming off his first win and 7Ks. Again, I can’t stress enough how risky this entire slate is, but Lamet’s reward could slightly outweigh the downside. He should get the necessary run support for another W, and there’s an outside shot he crests the 5.0 inning mark tonight and possibly gets 6.0 in to qualify him for the QS bonus.

Contrarian GPP Play: Jordan Montgomery ($7,000)

We’re going to have to take some chances on this slate, and rolling out the enigmatic lefty hurler at Fenway might be the key to unlocking the slate. Or, and hear me out, you can stack against the guy in a few GPP lineups to hedge your DFS approach. He’s regained some of the effectiveness his changeup and curveball once had in his early days, and using them to keep these Boston hitters off balance. His 3.62 FIP is among the lowest on the slate, we know he’s got as much upside as anyone in these four games, and the Boston projected total is pretty high, so we know he won’t be popular.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: San Diego Padres vs. ARI RHP Merrill Kelly

The Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees are all viable options in the spend-up category, but let’s look a little more closely at the Padres, who are red-hot at the plate. Fernando Tatis, Jr. ($4,700) is destroying baseballs right now (4-5 with 3 HRs and 65.8 FD points last night) and I don’t see any reason to not continue using him with Manny Machado ($4,300), Jake Cronenworth ($3,300) and either Eric Hosmer ($2,700), Tommy Pham ($3,100) or even Trent Grisham ($3,000). This lineup is filled with speed and power — the biggest contributors to offensive success in DFS, so make sure you get exposure to the Friars tonight.

Value Stack: San Francisco Giants vs. OAK RHP Frankie Montas

The Giants match up extremely well against Montas, who’s been struggling a bit lately. The top five hitters include a bevy of cheap bats who have enormous upside tonight: LaMonte Wade ($2,700), Mike Yastrzemski ($3,500), Buster Posey ($3,100) Alex Dickerson ($2,300), Brandon Crawford ($2,800). They could work in conjunction with the more expensive Dodgers or Padres, especially if you’re fading the Yankees-Red Sox.

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery

First of all, don’t freak out. I know I recommended Montgomery, and while there’s no way I’d stack the Sox and use Monty in the SP slot, we’ve got to build lineups assuming more than one narrative today, and it’s possible the Sox can give us what we need in a stack while Montgomery gets us 30-40 FD points behind a barrage of Ks. The hitting conditions seem favorable, and while Monty is generally a ground ball pitcher over the course of his career, the fly balls he gives up tend to go pretty far. If Michael Chavis leads off he’s a great bargain option at $2,300, and while lefty vs. lefty Alex Verdugo ($2,900) doesn’t get me excited, the projected 3-7 hitters are all in play: J.D. Martinez ($4,100), Xander Bogaerts ($3,700), Rafael Devers ($3,900), Kike Hernandez ($3,300) and Hunter Renfroe ($2,700).

Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Kodai Senga vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Blake Snell vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Baltimore Orioles vs. Luke Weaver

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Kyle Freeland

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Bryce Elder vs. Miami Marlins

Steven Matz vs. San Francisco Giants

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Roansy Contreras

Los Angeles Angels vs. Luis Medina

MLB DFS Summary

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Hunter Brown vs. Detroit Tigers

Drew Rasmussen vs. Washington Nationals

Nestor Cortes vs. Philadelphia Phillies

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ryan Feltner

Boston Red Sox vs. Johan Oviedo

MLB DFS Summary

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Robbie Ray vs. Oakland Athletics

Triston McKenzie vs. Chicago White Sox

Bailey Ober vs. Kansas City Royals

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Madison Bumgarner

Minnesota Twins vs. Daniel Lynch

Texas Rangers vs. Tucker Davidson

MLB DFS Stacks – Main Slate

Colorado Rockies vs. Justin Steele

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cessa/Sanmartin

Washington Nationals vs. Brubaker (FD Only)

MLB DFS Main Slate Summary

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Justin Verlander ($10,400)

Best GPP Option: Joe Musgrove ($10,000)

Contrarian GPP Play: Chris Bassitt ($9,700)

More GPP Value: Joan Adon, Kyle Wright

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Second-best Stack: Atlanta Braves

Value GPP Stack: San Diego Padres

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($11,500)

Best GPP Value: Luis Garcia ($7,900)

Contrarian GPP Play: Dylan Cease ($8,900)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

GPP Value Stack: San Francisco Giants

GPP Stack #2: Houston Astros

Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Julio Urias ($10,000)

Best GPP Value: Yu Darvish ($9,600)

Value Cash/Single-Entry GPP Play: Charlie Morton ($8,700)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Colorado Rockies

GPP Stack: Cincinnati Reds

Contrarian Stack: Cleveland Indians

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Nathan Eovaldi ($8,200)

Best GPP Value: Dinelson Lamet ($7,500)

Contrarian GPP Play: Jordan Montgomery ($7,000)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: San Diego Padres vs. ARI RHP Merrill Kelly

Value Stack: San Francisco Giants vs. OAK RHP Frankie Montas

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery

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