The Group Stage of the 2020 LoL Worlds has concluded and we are now live for our first two quarter-final matchups between some regional foes; DWG sees DRX in a rematch of the LCK Summer Split finals, while JDG sees another LPL representative in Suning with a berth in the semi-finals on the line. Remember, these series are now Best of 5 so there are a few additional components to consider when constructing our lineups: although we would want the team we predicted to go 3-0 at the “Team” spot in our lineups last week in a reverse 4-3 type of lineup construction, this is not a round robin with 4 teams and 6 games where they each face one another on the same slate; bonuses will be key to getting to the top of our GPP leaderboards and we need to identify the correct path. Let’s dive in:

LoL Matchup #1: DAMWON Gaming (-800) vs DRX (+450)

As mentioned above, our LoL slate begins with a rematch of the LCK Summer Split finals between DWG and DRX. Although they have been playing slower than they typically did in the Summer Split, DWG is still averaging 0.571 kills/minute at Worlds, which would be good for 6^th-most in history. In case you can’t read between the lines, let me just come out and say that this team can do it all: they hold all major advantages at the 15-minute mark versus their LCK foe, in addition to holding the advantage in major objectives. If DRX can somehow win the bot lane and run through Deft/Keria, they may steal a game, but I just don’t see it – as good as Chovy is, he’s in for another long series here versus ShowMaker in the mid lane, making the latter a top priority in DWG stacks, in addition to Canyon’s absurd 76.5% kill participation rate.

The Pick: DWG 3-0

LoL Matchup #2: Suning (+137) vs JD Gaming (-188)

I wish our second matchup wasn’t another regional one, but it shows just how good the LPL and LCK are; on Friday morning, we get to see JDG take on Suning. Although SN holds the advantage in rift herald percentage, first turret percentage, and vision, JDG has better numbers when it comes to major objectives and statistics at the 15-minute mark. When we break this one down based on lane matchups, JDG seems to separate themselves from their counterparts; although bin (TOP) has the raw talent, Zoom is simply more active and scales better, while Kanavi, who is one of, if not the best jungler in the LPL, should be able to handle SofM all series long. In the bot lane is where things get dicey; Huanfeng and SwordArt have shown potential, but they can also be the demise of their team’s fights if they’re not on the same page, which won’t fly versus the likes of Loken and LvMao. JDG gets this one done, and with them averaging 0.547 kills per minute at Worlds right behind DWG, they make for a good option in a Day-2 four-man stack.

The Pick: JDG 3-1

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LoL Matchup #1: G2 (-500) vs TL (+333)

The first matchup on the slate sees G2 taking on TL; the latter has looked abysmal throughout Worlds, plays tremendously slow, and will be in tough versus a G2 squad who holds all of the lane advantages. G2 should pounce early and often, although they may have a capped ceiling with TL seeming completely uninterested in team fights. If you are going G2, make sure to lock in Caps (MID), who is one of the best players the 2020 LoL Worlds has to offer from a DFS perspective.

Pick: G2 (-500)

LoL Matchup #2: Suning (-400) vs Machi eSports (+275)

The second matchup on the slate has a lot of potential – at times, Machi seems to be able to farm and play the long game, but they often play to their opponent’s style rather than their own. This plays right into SN’s game, who will force them to make mistakes early and often and try to get both Huanfeng (ADC) and bin (TOP) some early lane advantages. Give me the LPL favorite in a ton of GPP lineups versus a Machi team that has topped 20 or more deaths in three of four losses thus far.

Pick: Suning (-400)

LoL Matchup #3: DragonX (-400) vs FlyQuest (+275)

With NA teams playing awfully slow, DRX may have a capped ceiling to get us to the top of the leaderboards, but their prices on DK are great for cash games considering their matchup here. With Power of Evil always holding it down for his squad, he’ll be another one-man show here, but he’s in tough versus Chovy in the mid lane. With how teams have continuously picked on Solo all tournament long, tonight should be no different, which makes both Doran and Pyosik the players to target here.

Pick: DRX (-400)

LoL Matchup #4: Top eSports (-1000) vs Unicorns of Love (+550)

Lock of the slate; don’t get cute with this one. TES asserted their dominance versus DRX and played a skillful draft outside their usual style, showing just how talented they are. It starts with the infamous duo of Knight and JackeyLove, who, while are priced at the top of the grid on DK, have the highest ceilings in a matchup versus a UoL team that loves to pile up deaths and play fairly aggressively when they want to. If a slower team like DRX can have 22 kills versus UoL, just imagine what Knight (MID) and JackeyLove (ADC) will do here.

Pick: TES (-1000)

LoL Matchup #5: GenG (-250) vs Fnatic (+175)

This game lacks the appeal for our fantasy lineups in a similar fashion to DRX, but I do lean the LCK team in this one over their regional representatives. While FNC isn’t known for playing as aggressive as other teams on this slate, such as UoL and Machi, they can pile up deaths, as seen in most of their losses where they get in the 18-20 range. Lock for GenG to play through the bot lane where Ruler should have his way with Rekkles. The pricing on GenG is good enough to 4-man stack them in GPPs with the hope of topping 20+ kills; focus on Ruler (ADC) and BDD (MID) here, with an honorable mention to Clid (JNG).

Pick: GenG (-250)

LoL Matchup #6: LGD Gaming (-200) vs Team SoloMid (+150)

It’s no fun to be ending the slate with yet another favorite that we like to win, but TSM will prove to be no match for the LPL squad. Although I have no interest in stacking them a bunch in GPPs due to how slow TSM plays, LGD should come in underowned and could be a good leverage spot; they’ll get up early and can win this one on individual talent alone, but if you’re riding the Bjergsen show in the mid lane for a TSM upset with the hopes that they turn it on versus an aggressive LGD team, I can’t blame you.

Pick: LGD (-200)

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With the Play-Ins now settled, we’re moving on to the League of Legends (LoL) Group Stage at Worlds 2020. We have another six matchups on tap for Day 2 with some more familiar teams for those that have been playing LoL since the beginning of the pandemic back in March, so let’s get to it:

LoL Matchup #1: Team Liquid (-250) vs Machi eSports (+175)

With PSG Talon representing the PCS fairly well in Play-Ins, the attention now turns to the champions of the region in Machi, who beat PSG in the regional finals. On the flipside, TL comes in having gone 3-1 in the Group A Play-Ins. TL has the major advantage in the mid lane and should let Jensen carry them to victory; they’ll be popular in cash, and rightfully so, because of their cheaper price tags compared to other heavy favorites, but for tournaments, I’m primarily looking to limit my lineups to a Jensen one off or pairing Tactical (ADC) with CoreJJ (SUP) because of how slow TL plays.

The Pick: TL (-250)

LoL Matchup #2: Suning (+120) vs G2 (-163)

The second matchup on the slate is the one that intrigues me the most: we get two teams that play fairly aggressively and have similar playing styles, which could lead to one of them being in the optimal LoL GPP lineup. These teams are both fairly close in first-objective rates, so when we break it down by lane advantages, I do favor the Suning side: the bot lane duo of Huanfeng/SwordArt are often overlooked in a region that features other ADCs like JackeyLove and Loken, but I do like their matchup here versus Perkz/Mikyx, in addition to bin holding the advantage in top lane over Wunder. For G2, this game comes down to how much Jankos and Caps can take over; if Jankos is roaming the jungle and diving with Wunder in top lane, bin could be in for a long match, while Caps can single-handedly carry his team. Get exposure to both sides because this game has the most potential on the slate.

G2: Caps (MID), Jankos (JNG)

SN: Huanfeng (ADC), SwordArt (SUP)

LoL Matchup #3: DAMWON Gaming (-600) vs Rogue (+350)

My pick to potentially win it all at this year’s Worlds, DWG comes in as the biggest favorite on the slate as they face off versus Rogue on Day 2. To put it simply, DWG holds all five lane advantages here, especially down the mid lane with Showmaker vs Larssen. For those that do not know already, the LEC is a region that plays much slower than the LPL and even the LCK, so look for Rogue to play the long game here and stay alive as long as they can, and I expect that to be reflected in their draft as well. There’s no denying that DWG is the top stack for cash games on this LoL slate, but their prices worry me a tad in what should be an easy win – if they can force Rogue into multiple teams fights, the usual suspects in ShowMaker and Canyon should lead the way with their 71.4% and 67% kill participation rates (KPR), respectively.

The Pick: DWG (-600)

LoL Matchup #4: JD Gaming (-600) vs PSG Talon (+350)

Don’t be worried after JDG’s loss to DWG on opening day of the Group Stage – DWG is a force and should be considered one of the favorites to win Worlds. Today, JDG has a great bounce back spot versus one of the Cinderella stories of the Play-Ins in PSG and should stomp them with ease; while PSG does hold slight advantages in all three primary objectives being first rift herald percentage, and first dragon percentage, and first baron percentage, JDG has a better first turret percentage, gold advantage, and first blood. Look for them to bounce on PSG early and often.

The Pick: JDG (-600)

LoL Matchup #5: Team SoloMid (+225) vs GenG (-300)

Another team that I like to make a deep run at the 2020 Worlds, GenG gets another soft matchup here versus an NA team in TSM. Similarly to the LEC, the LCS is played at a much slower pace than the LCK and LPL, with the LCS being the punching bag of the LoL community within the top 4 regions. GenG has the clear advantage in bot lane with Ruler/Life and should ride that out to victory, and BDD is simply too cheap for one of the best mid laners in this tournament. However, TSM does not die a ton because of how slow they play, but given GenG’s price saving over DWG, they’re also in the cash conversation, but be wary of using them in 4-man stacks in tournaments.

The Pick: GenG (-300)

LoL Matchup #6: Fnatic (-150) vs LGD Gaming (+110)

Another underdog that I like here coming from the LPL, I thought this line would be closer to even money or have LGD as the slight favorites. For LGD to win, their bot lane will have to be dominant, and I think they’ll do just that – Mark is no star, but I’ll take him over Hylissang in any matchup, and xiye has the clear advantage over Nemesis in the mid lane. LGD has proven to have upside in bloody matchups, and with FNC struggling to come back in matches where they are behind outside of their region’s weaker opponents, LGD should continue to force team fighs en route to a potential 20+ kill game here. FNC likes to attack early on as seen by their advantage in first blood percentage and early game, but LGD excels in that aspect as well and neutralizes more objectives while doing so. Give me the ‘dog here.

The Pick: LGD Gaming (+110)

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League of Legends (LoL) is back in full force with Worlds underway, and we have some great contests to go along with it. Beginning in the Play-In Stage, we have three matchups on tap for Day 2, with the PCS, LCL, LEC, TCL, LCS, and OPL all being represented on today’s slate. While the four major regions – the LPL, LCK, LCS, and LEC – will likely draw the majority of ownership throughout the tournament since it is familiar to the daily fantasy player, we did see PSG take down a -750 favorite in LGD; these matches are Best of 1, and anything can happen.

LoL Matchup #1: PSG Talon (-110) vs Unicorns of Love (-125)

The upsets didn’t take long to come to fruition when we saw PSG take down a heavy LPL favorite in LGD on the opening day of Worlds. Having picked up back to back wins to open their Worlds run, I expect PSG to be extremely popular tonight due to their combination of price and the field’s recency bias. However, UoL ran the table to a clean 14-0 sweep in the summer split and went 2-0 in playoffs en route to a championship in the LCL. Being a weaker region than the PCS, UoL’s run this split cannot be all there needs to be said about this matchup, as they are slightly overpriced for their ceilings here – PSG has the advantage in major statistical categories, and having shown out on Day 1 with 43 kills in two games, combined with facing tougher competition in the best of the “minor” regions, I’ll take the slight favorite here; with the exception of top laner Hanabi, PSG’s players were all over 72% kill participation (KP%), making them an attractive four-man stack.

LoL Matchup #2: MAD Lions (-275) vs Papara SuperMassive (+200)

After a loss filled with detrimental mental lapses, MAD Lions will look to rebound versus SM on Day 2, in what will be their opponent’s 2020 Worlds debut. Despite SM having the better first turret percentage, rift herald percentage, and a strong early game, I’m expecting MAD to have a big bounce back here; they grade out better in vision statistics, have the better first blood percentage, and come from a much stronger region. Having (hopefully) put their sloppy behind them on Day 1, MAD needs to make sure to avoid the same mistakes they made yesterday to TL, but I have faith that they’ll get the jump on SM. Being as cheap as they are in addition to being a live ‘dog in this one, I’ll take some shots on SM as well, but they’ll need MAD to make mistakes early and often to come out of this one, but this is LoL, and you never know what can happen, especially on a Worlds stage, and if they can take advantage of MAD in the early game, there may be another shocker on Day 2.

LoL Matchup #3: Legacy eSports (+333) vs Team Liquid (-500)

While the LCS is often the victim of being a punching bag in the LoL community, TL finished with a region best 15-3 record and managed to start off their Worlds run with a victory over MAD Lions yesterday. On the flipside, Legacy pulled off a light upset of their own, coming out victorious in their opening match versus INTZ. While I fully expect TL to come out with the win in this one behind their lane advantages and objective control, it lacks the appeal from a DFS perspective since TL plays really slow – I mean, really, really slow. While they did have 22 kills versus MAD yesterday, that was more of a shot against MAD’s frequency of mistakes rather than TL’s aggressivity. They’re fine in cash games being a heavy favorite and the likeliest of the bunch to secure a win, but in a Best of 1, we can’t afford to have teams winning matches with few kills for our GPP exposure, and I think this may be the case with TL here today.

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