Jon Lester

Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we get a solid slate on DraftKings with 10 games to sort through for our MLB DFS picks with a start time of 7:05 PM EST.

Looking back at Monday’s slate, we had some interesting takeaways in the winning lineups. First and foremost, pitching was a survive and advance kind of evening as no pitcher scored more than 25 fantasy points but the combination of Tyler Glasnow (23) and Adrian Houser (15) was the key duo in the winning GPP builds.

The Houser play ended up being the perfect pivot off Josh James who was a whopping 60% owned in GPP’s and ended the night with just 5 fantasy points, so moving to Houser in the same price range at a third of the ownership, giving you three times the fantasy production.

It then came down to the bats and the winning builds had a common stacking strategy with a Royals/Rays two team stacking strategy that combined two offenses that drove in 28 total runs. Always stack…always!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitcher Breakdown:

Well if you thought Monday’s pitching slate was ugly, buckle up buttercup because this one is a humdinger.

There is only one pitcher on the slate with a K rate over 27% and that happens to be Walker Buehler ($11.3K) against the Astros. Not only is the match-up against the Houston Astros bad, but the real issue is also that Buehler is expected to be on a pitch count after only working two innings in his final outing of Spring Training 2.0. Dave Roberts has come out and said it may take three trips through the rotation before Buehler is fully stretched out, so paying a premium for a tune-up against the Astros offense feels like a bad idea.

Now the counter to that argument – Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow last night was the best arm on the slate (not saying much), pitching just 4 innings and striking out 9 Braves batters so there is a path to a ceiling spot with the lone elite K arm we have at our disposal.

Also, it is Walker Buehler’s birthday today – so basically you are required by narrative law to consider him.

Rather than pay up for underwhelming options like Merrill Kelly, Kyle Gibson or gulp Homer Bailey, I am going to skip over that tier entirely and try and find some value arms that allow me to get the big bats that will likely determine this slate.

Rather than focus on the pitcher per se, let’s find the offenses we want to go after – ones that have struggled thus far in 2020.

Through the first weekend of the season, the Colorado Rockies have struggled mightily on the road, with just 8 runs scored, a 28% K rate and a .095 ISO. We saw the two Rangers starters who faced them this past weekend both have ceiling type games with Lance Lynn (6 IP and 9 K’s) and Mike Minor (5 IP and 6K’s) and now tonight they head to Oakland and their vast pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Now Daniel Mengden ($7.4k) is not a name I expected to be typing up just a handful of days into the MLB season unless I just wanted to talk about his perfectly coiffed mustache, but with the limited options on this slate, he is going to be in our player pool.

Mengden is a sub 20% K arm with a single-digit swinging-strike rate, but we have seen ceiling games from him as recently as last year. In 9 starts last year, Mengden went for 20+ DraftKings points in 3 of them and out up 9+ in 7 of the 9 outings.

Go back to 2018 and you see a similar pattern, in 17 games started he eclipsed 13 DK points 10 times and went over 20 DK points in 4 of those outings.

Now shooting for “double-digit” points as our baseline may seem like a defeatist attitude, but look again at last night’s slate where 15 fantasy points from Adrian Houser was a massive win and frankly, take the same approach.

Mengden is one of the largest favorites on the board (-168) and the Rockies have one of the lowest IRT on the slate at 4.2 to open. Mengden has also historically been much better at home, pitching to an ERA and xFIP nearly a run lower, while seeing his K rate tick up 3-4% higher than his marks on the road.

If the Rockies continue to struggle as they have to open the year, this could be a great run prevention spot for Mengden who with a double-digit baseline and the upside for 20+ DK points, makes for a nice mid-range play to get us all the bats we want.

Patrick Sandoval ($6.6K) is an intriguing arm on this slate and his K metrics may end up making him one of the more popular options on this slate as a result. Sandoval’s 13.5% swinging-strike rate is the best mark of any arm on this slate and his 24.9% K rate actually ranks among the top arms today.

Now add in the fact he is a massive favorite (-183) taking on a Mariners team with the lowest IRT as of this writing (3.8) and their high opposing K rate of 26.2% and you start to see one of the few upside options that exist on this slate.

The projected Mariners line-up today has a 25.2% K rate against LHP the last two seasons and with 6 RHB in the projected line-up, it lines up well with Sandovals 27% K rate to right-handed bats.

The nice part about living in this $7K range for arms is you are able to stack up two premier stacks and as we saw last night – on nights without aces, bats are going to win you the slate.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks:

Looking at the bats on this slate, while we do not yet have all the Vegas data, we already have four times with 5+ IRT including the A’s, Brewers, Angels and Twins.

The Angels become a very appealing stack for the sole reason they are expected to welcome back (or for the first time), Anthony Rendon into their line-up. With lefty Justus Sheffield on the hill, the addition of Rendon in between Mike Trout and Justin Upton makes this a lethal right-handed heavy core that could make Sheffield’s day a quick one.

Against LHP last season, Rendon (.301 ISO) and Trout (.291 ISO) absolutely hammered left-handed pitching and well Upton’s ISO is not at those elite levels, he actually had the highest HC rate (48%) and farthest air distance (316 feet) of any RHB on the Angels.

Sheffield generated nearly 60% GB’s against RHB last season but again this is where the Angels trio has the batted ball advantage, as all three hitters have FB rates 10-15% higher against LHP so they work counter to what Sheffield prefers. There is a reason LAA has a 5.3 IRT here tonight with Rendon back and the righty stack is a great way to chase upside!

One of the best offenses in baseball last season has come out of the gates showing once again how powerful they can be as the Minnesota Twins have put up 27 runs in their first three games with 10 and 14 runs in two of those.

Tonight they take on Carlos Martinez and the Cardinals, who is coming back to the rotation after serving as the Cards closer last season. Now Martinez is not an arm the metrics would say we need to stack against, but much like we talked about with Mengden at pitcher – this is far more about choosing the opponent.

The Twins offense is lethal – up and down – and maybe other than the Dodgers, there may not be a better line-up in baseball. The projected lineup tonight, had a .244 ISO last season against RHP with a massive 45% HC rate and the 5.4 IRT this evening is something we will likely see day in and day out as the season progresses.

What I love about the Twins from a stacking perspective is how they work alongside an Angels stack tonight as you can capture high-upside at weak positions like Catcher with Mitch Garver or SS with Jorge Polanco and that kind of correlation between stacks allows you to maximize your output.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up

Tonight’s slate is very much like Monday’s although with arguably worse pitching. We have 10 games on the slate but there is some rain risk in Boston between the Mets and Red Sox.

One thing to keep an eye on tonight will be ownership, especially at pitcher. We saw it yesterday where Josh James became the de-facto arm to lock-in and with it came massive ownership and a leverage situation. Will we have another arm like that tonight?

At first glance, the offenses seem like we have enough where none will be chalk so the pivots as you go through the day will likely be at pitcher. I will be in Discord all day talking about this slate and am ready to take down some big money tonight!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Monday, July 27

Happy Monday MLB DFS fans as we get our first full week of MLB action after opening weekend! Tonight, we get a solid slate on DraftKings with 9 games to sort through for our MLB DFS picks with a start time of 6:40 PM EST.

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitcher Breakdown:

UPDATED – NYY/PHI and MIA/BAL are PPD

As you open up Monday’s MLB DFS slate on DraftKings you will notice that the pitching is, well, underwhelming as we are through the first run of aces and now on to to the slates where we will have to dig a little harder to find our two SP’s to roster.

Mike Foltynewicz ($10.3K) is the highest priced arm on the slate and the only arm over $10K with a road match-up against the Tamp Bay Rays. I am a big believer that in DFS, pricing drives decision making, and Foltynewicz is the prime example of that here on Monday.

What if I told you, you could pay over $10K for a road underdog (+135), against a team with a 4.7 IRT who last season had an ERA/SIERA over 4.5 with a K rate of 21% and swinging strike rate of just 10.5% – pumped right?

Now Foltynewicz can be utilized under the right circumstances, specifically against right-handed heavy teams where his K rate of 24% can be utilized but this Rays projected line-up has six left-handed hitters in it which plays more to Folty’s floor with just an 18% K rate last season.

Even if you wanted to argue “safety” here, I am not even sure you can do that as the Braves have talked about limiting their arms the first time through the rotation and the first three games against the Mets we saw every bit of that as Soroka (69 pitches), Fried (67) and Newcomb (82) all saw their pitch counts managed the first time on the bump.

The last tune-up for Folty saw him throw 69 total pitches, so I think expecting him in the same range as the other Braves starters is a realistic outcome.

Now, the pricing being so aggressive on Foltynewicz could make him a really interesting low-owned GPP play but the lack of K upside, against a lefty-heavy line-up all sitting around a managed pitch count makes this a spot for GPP’s only. If he is going to be ignored tonight, then I think paying up for him is an interesting contrarian strategy but if he is going to get any sort of ownership, then it makes sense to let others take the risk.

Josh James ($8.6K) is making the transition from the bullpen to a full-time starting gig with the Houston Astros and with a home start against the Mariners, there is some serious K upside awaiting us.

James’ metrics are going to be heavily skewed as a result of his bullpen role but it is hard to overlook a guy with a 37% K rate and 16% swinging-strike rate. There is no doubt that James has the K ability as his last full season at AAA as a starter he flashed a similarly impressive 35.2% K rate so there is massive upside for him at this price tag.

The risk with James really sits with his inflated walk rate which sat at 13% last season and over 10% in his last season at AAA as a starter. The walk concerns overlaid with a pitcher still working up a full pitch count (64 pitches his last exhibition start), could lead to a shorter outing especially on the heels of the Astros losing their ace Justin Verlander for a significant amount of time yesterday.

James will get Gabe Morales behind the plate tonight, an umpire who is relatively neutral for walks but calls 9% more K’s than the league average so is James is throwing strikes and getting swings and misses, he could get the most of his pitch count tonight.

On a slate without any real must have’s offensively, James offers the tantalizing K upside that makes him a worth-while mid-range play but I could also see the ownership getting out of hand for James as the “shiny new toy” with the advanced metrics that everyone flocks to because the pitching is otherwise kind of mediocre.

Adrian Houser ($8.3K) represents a nice pivot off James in the same range as he gives you a solid 25% K rate in a strong run prevention spot against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Houser is a ground ball inducing machine, with a 53.4% GB rate last season that ranked among the top 10 of SP’s with at least 100 innings of work.

Now ground balls are not exactly sexy for DFS purposes especially when the Pirates as an opponent already cap upside with their 19% K rate against RHP but there is something to say about the stability and safety Houser can offer you on this slate where we frankly are dying to find two viable options.

Kendall Graveman ($4.9K) sits on the opposite end of the spectrum to Folty, as a player we are considering based off his bargain price alone. Graveman will be making his first start in two years after missing 2019 with Tommy John surgery and gets the unenviable task of facing the Houston Astros.

Graveman, much like Houser, has been a ground ball machine over his career with a 50% plus GB rate as a result of his sinker and early reports are he has added a four-seamer now to his arsenal sitting in the upper 90’s during exhibition games. The ability to challenge hitters up in the zone and then come back with his sinker to drive ground ball outs, is an intriguing combination that I think is a viable route on this pitching scarce slate that could give you added leverage if the Astros become the chalky stack with a slate high IRT.

So where does this all leave us?

From a GPP perspective, unless the ownership gets totally out of hand, it is hard not to focus on Josh James at this price point as one of your starting pitchers on a two-pitch site like DraftKings.

After that – I think you can mix and match any of Houser and Graveman, in an effort to load up on the bats here tonight. If you find yourself with salary to spend, I think “risking” it with Folty could be a GPP differentiator as we wait to see ownership unfold during the day.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks:

If you are new to Picks and Pivots and haven’t read me before I got to Win Daily, let me fill you in on a secret.

I have a nemesis.

Yep, a full-blown nemesis.

In the 5+ years I have been writing this column there is one starting pitcher that has teased and tantalized me – to the point where my wife got me a bobblehead of him that sits proudly on my desk at home.

Ladies and Gentlemen – welcome to the first installment of Brian Tulloch versus Jon Lester – 2020!

Lester is the definition of a crafty old veteran, a pitcher with a low K rate, a single-digit swinging-strike rate, and the ability to get out of jams. Over the last two seasons, his 76% left on base rate ranks 13th among all active starting pitchers but when you look at the rest of the list – it is littered with high K arms like Verlander, deGrom, Flaherty, Cole, Scherzer and so on.

Meanwhile here is old Jonny boy, dinking and dunking his way out of jams all managing to spit in the face of advanced stats that say his ERA should be a half-run higher than it has been.

I stack against Lester, a lot, waiting for the regression to hit, and today with a start in Great American Ballpark, I am going right back to the well.

The Reds may be a bit banged up but this line-up tonight has some serious upside, as they have four hitters in the lineup from the right side with .240+ ISO marks against LHP since 2018 including Eugenio Suarez, Nick Castellanos, Aristedes Aquino and Phillip Ervin.

Lester last season relied heavily on his cutter to RHB, jumping from 22% usage in 2018 to 35% usage in 2019, serving as his primary pitch to RHB. That pitch conversely was hit with though with a .225 ISO and 40% hard contact rate which shows you the damage good right-handed hitting teams can do against it. Of all the right-handed hitters – Castellanos absolutely destroys this pitch type, with an absurd 58% HC rate and .333 ISO mark.

It will be hot and humid in Ohio tonight with the threat of severe storms which would be fitting in 2020 fashion to ruin my Lester Day but with the wind blowing out and humid temperatures, this could be a launching pad with GPP winning upside and you know – I am all in!

Finding that secondary stack will be the key here tonight. With the Yankees/Phillies now off the slate, I can see the Astros being the defacto high dollar stack tonight that folks pay up for and so pairing them with James and the Reds who I expect will have some ownership), makes it tough to differentiate your build.

One team that may get overlooked here tonight is the Detroit Tigers as they face off with LHP Mike Montgomery. Montgomery last season gave up massive upside to hitters from both sides of the plate with a .210 ISO to RHB and .250 to LHB all with 44% HC and a single-digit swinging strike rate. So what that means is you have a pitcher who doesn’t miss bats, pitches to contact and gives up hard contact when he does.

The Tigers make for a nice secondary stack with the Reds because you can use guys like CJ Cron, Jonathan Schoop and Niko Goodrum to fill in around the positions of need in a Cincy stack and best part is – they are super cheap!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up

This is a GREAT GPP slate in my opinion as we do not have the obvious arms to target and it is going to require you to dig a bit deeper on this slate. With hot and humid temperatures across essentially every park, I think we could see some offenses put up massive numbers and through the first four slates of the year it hs mostly been about the big offensive stacks that have driven high GPP scores.

Going into the day now with all the COVID news breaking, I am starting my builds with James and a Reds stack and from there we need to be ready to pivot. If Folty ends up being ignored, then you can roll him out with a cheap Tigers stack with salary to spare.

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.