Today we’re going to take a look at 4 Starting Pitchers that are not being looked at early in drafts, with everyone here coming in at 200+ ADP. Lets dig in!
1. Griffin Canning
The Griffin, a mix between a lion and a eagle, is one of my favorite mythical creatures. With the Latin translation for Griffin meaning “curved” referring to its beak, its no coincidence the Canning has a wonderful curveball. Canning was called up by the Angels in April of 2019 and was off to a hot start, toting a 2.57 ERA through may. the game caught up to the rookie though, and he found himself in a rough patch in July before ultimately ending up on the IL. Canning was diagnosed with chronic changes to his UCL and was shut down, not expecting to be ready for the start of the 2020 season. Canning has since returned throwing from a mound though and is on track to make a difference right away in a Angels rotation that needs all the help it can get. Back to the bender, Canning’s curveball is on the tighter side, not so much of a looper, and he managed to find the zone with it 46% of the time while batters only swung 50%. The slider was a pretty good offering for the young hurler as well, with a zone rate at 40% and a whiff rate north of 45%. Canning’s changeup can use a bit of work, with just a 13% whiff rate, it was mostly used to take lefties off balance, and was hit around to the tune of a .485 xSLG. That changeup could have been even worse if not for a good fastball in Canning’s corner. Canning has shown great command with that 4 seamer and the pitch has great has above average drop and break. Griffin Canning should improve in his sophomore campaign and has a chance to become the top dog of the Angels staff.
2. Joe Musgrove
Oh Joe. How I wish I could quit you. With 3 secondary pitches above league average whiff rate, zone rate, and K rate though (Slider, Change, Curve) I never will. Joe has been a full time starter for the pirates for 2 years, and has been teetering on a breakout for the same amount of time. Towards the end of last season Musgrove moved to a shortened arm action in his delivery, providing himself with 3 ticks of extra velocity, bringing his fastball all the way up to 95mph from his regular 92mph! With that added velocity Joe managed to absolutely spike his K% to 37% though 3 starts in September. Joe Musgrove is elite in the fact that he has 3 secondary options with swinging strike rate over 15%, being 1 of only 5 pitchers to do so in 2019, the Pirates have been fastball first team for quite some time though, and made Musgrove throw more fastballs then I suspect he wanted to. With longtime fastball oriented pitching coach Ray Searage finally gone and replaced by analytics minded Oscar Marin in Pittsburgh, Joe should at last be able to unleash a barrage of breaking balls to batters and find a way to break through in 2020.
3. Pablo Lopez
Pablo loves to live low, low and below the strike zone. He works mostly off a fantastic changeup that boasts a 30% swinging strike rate, and a 45.8% O-swing. Pablo’s changeup is also able to be thrown for strikes with a 43% zone rate. Pablo’s fastball finds the zone at a 57% rate, which at first glance would give one the idea that he has good command of it, but its more control than command. When the 4 seamer does land in the zone it often gets him in trouble, and batters managed take advantage of it by sitting heat. Lopez offers a curve and a sinker that he like to drop in for strikes as well. The curve is not great put away pitch but it is good enough to be used 20% of the time, while opponents only hit .210 against it. The sinker is used mostly against right handed batters and produces some good swing and miss (22%) when throw below the zone and provides a great tunneling option for the changeup. All Pablo Lopez has to do is harness some Fastball command and find the ability to pepper the top of the strike zone with cheese, and his already great sinker and changeup tunneling will become devastating in 2020.
4. Mike Foltynewicz
Mike Foltynewicz is going to to be the most turn key starter of this group, only a year removed from his tremendous 2018 all star season. Folty lost a tick and half on both his fastball and his slider from 2018 to 2019 though, and while his slider returned similar swinging strike numbers, the avg against rose from .111 in 2018 to .242 in 2019. The fastball was knocked around to a .636 xSLG. In 2018 Folty threw his 4 seamer 40% of the time, while throwing his sinker only 16% of the time. In 2019 those fastball numbers met in the middle and Folty threw his slider/4 seamer/sinker all between 25%-28%, which I thought would help his ability to tunnel the slider. I was wrong. Folty’s sinker returned a .365 xSLG in 2018, in 2019 that number jumped about .463, almost 100 points higher! I would love to see Folty go back to pounding high heat and mixing the sinker when necessary, alternatively it would be nice to see some more changeup usage. The changeup was not a big piece of the gameplan in 2019, only being thrown 9.5% of the time, but showed great results with batters hitting only a measly .178 against it, a 50% zone rate, and a 44% chase and miss, shown here by Anthony Rendon. If Folty can reclaim that tick of heat back to his fastball and keep control of it, he will have no problem landing himself on the All-Star team for the next few years.
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Hump Day offers a smattering of daytime baseball but the best cash plays for our 8/21 DFS Pitching Picks come out at night. With the usual 15-game slate, expect solid choices for all formats.
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It begins and ends with Verlander for the 8/21 DFS Pitching Picks when it comes to best cash game options. Yes, it’s going to cost you, but Verlander has put up at least 30 FanDuel points in all but two starts dating back to April 8. He’s been freaking Lights Out over his last six starts, recording at least 10 Ks in each, putting within the outer edge of his first 300-K season. Barring the unforeseen, Verlander will push the streak to seven at the expense of a Tigers team that is third only to the Mariners and Rangers in batter’s strikeouts (1,219). You don’t need a lot of fancy next gen numbers with this pick: Ante up and watch the K’s come.
Easily the best play among the daytime starters, Morton has helped deliver the long green in his past three starts, having produced FanDuel totals of 46, 42 and 55 points. He’s pitching at home in the Trop, where opponents have managed a .197 batting average and where Morton has a K:BB rate of 105:16 over 75.2 innings at home. Expensive? Yes, but if you’re playing an afternoon slate, there’s no other pitcher that comes close to giving you what Morton can provide.
This should be a dual act of Morton either fanning batters at will (remember, the Mariners lead the majors with 1,237 Ks from their hitters) or watching his 48.7% ground ball rate improve a tick or two. Seattle’s lineup doesn’t look like the Triple-A offense the Tigers will have in Houston tonight, but it’s one that is essentially playing for their fans at 10:10am.
Like Verlander, Buehler finds himself in an ideal scenario: at home against a free-swinging team that’s allergic to walks. Slightly less expensive than V-Squared, Buehler also has lacked Verlander’s consistency, having pitched a combined 10 innings in his last two starts, but I love the FanDuel projection (41.70 points) for him tonight. Buehler has a sick, sick, sick K:BB rate of 10.57:1.66. That number is more perverse when looking at his K:BB rate when pitching at Dodger Stadium, as Buehler sports a 94:7 rate in 73.1 innings tossed at home. To paraphrase a line of the song “Walking in LA” by the 1980s new wave group Missing Persons, nobody walks in LA, especially when Buehler is on the mound.
Toronto is 23rd in batter’s strikeouts, but for all the future talent brimming in their lineup, the Blue Jays are 28th in the majors with a .304 OBP. Do not count on that number improving after Wednesday night. In short, Buehler is money well spent for the 8/21 DFS Pitching Picks.
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He’s matched up well against the Angels, having gone 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in five starts against them. Minor put up 58 FanDuel points against them on April 16 and followed that with a solid 34 FDP in a May 25 start before a 16 FDP clunker versus Team Trout on July 2. His ability to reduce his fly ball rate (40%) is a key element behind his underrated performance this season and is also a welcomed fact considering how the ball can fly in Arlington on a hot August night.
Minor also brings a 12:7% HR:BB rate to the party and does come into this start with a lot of DFS momentum, recording 52 and 67 FanDuel points in his last two starts. The Angels managed just 13 hits in a double-header split on Tuesday, and I don’t suspect their bats will come alive against Minor.
This sets to be a trap game for those who like to stack Yankees batters. Fiers is Cy Young-caliber at Oakland Coliseum, where he has a 7-2 record with a 2.89 ERA while allowing hitters to get him at a .215 clip. He’s a bit pricey at DraftKings and does come off his worst DFS scoring performance since May 1, managing just 18 FanDuel points against the Tigers (!!!). However, he has delivered at least 30 FanDuel points in three of his last four starts at home. If there is any concern regarding Fiers, it’s the 5.99 K/9 rate he brings to the table.
That’s a tad unnerving, especially considering the level of lumber the Yanks will have in the lineup, but since Fiers is at home, you have to give him the edge and simply trust he can keep his infielders busy while hoping his 39.5% fly ball rate doesn’t take a sharp turn.
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Musgrove is a roller coaster, but what fun he can be when he’s on. He comes off a solid outing against the Cubs that resulted in 47 FanDuel points, continuing a season-long trend that has seen him either blow up DFS lineups or become an unsung hero to those crazy enough to run with him. Musgrove has allowed three or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts and is also on a 10-start stretch that has seen him walk two or fewer batters eight times.
The Nats’ offensive onslaught was slowed on Tuesday night, and if you’re a believer that it’s a sign of regression from Washington, boy, do I have a sleeper play for you.
We are going to try a bit of a different format for this MLB DFS Winners column today. We want to celebrate where we went right (winners) with our advice and highlight these examples for you.
CEO/Founder Jason Mezrahi was on the Braves in our Daily Cheat Sheet which is available only to Gold members. In it, he highlighted them as a value/contrarian stack as can be seen below:
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Brand ambassodor/DFS MLB meteorologist Mark Paquette suggested this cheap pairing and they delivered. This was put in out Premium Gold Slack chat room:
Of course, his stacking the Yankees was not the perfect pairing but hey….at least he got the pitching picks correct.
Another Slack chat room winner, Premium Gold Member Damian pointed out the warmth in Texas and how the ball may carry well leading to lots of runs.
This choice is chalky as the game was played at Coors. But hey, winners are still winners! Was ownership slightly depressed due to the Dodgers pathetic performance the night before? Maybe just a tad. So what? Their performance was highlighted in Mark’s blurb above and in Jason’s cheeatsheet below:
Scott Engel and Mark Paquette discuss the Main FanDuel MLB DFS Slate on the 7/15 MLB DFS Podcast. They break down the main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
There are some big names to possibly spend up on, such as Luis Castillo, but Scott and Mark offer a pair of arms that can save you some cash and help you stack from the Colorado/San Francisco game. Kyle Hendricks is under $10,000 on DK, and Joe Musgrove is incredibly cheap when you consider how he has been pitching recently.
There are a few likable options for tonight, and the Blue Jays are one of them. We also have to give strong consideration to the Braves. Of course, the second game of the Rockies/Giants doubleheader offers us some apparent quality options.
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We had a 10-game slate for Thursday June 27. Some lesser known players made huge impacts while other marquee names did not have good games. All points and dollar amounts are from DraftKings.
Jurado pitched excellently against the Detroit Tigers yesterday. He went seven shutout innings and gave up six hits, a walk and four strikeouts. Jurado pitched well against a struggling team and had a good outing, but do not expect him to do the same thing his next time up in the rotation.
Ariel Jurado continued the Rangers’ win streak and bounced back after back-to-back rough outings. His next outing is slated for Tuesday night against the Angels. The Angels are beginning to get healthy and have one of the better lineups when every one is there. Fade Jurado in his next outing.
Joe Musgrove had a great game against the Houston Astros yesterday, throwing six shutout innings and gave up nine hits and five strikeouts. Musgrove has been shaky for most of the past seven start. Musgrove should be sidelined for his next outing.
Musgrove now had back-to-back quality starts after yesterday’s outing. Even though the Astros are struggling, they have a feared lineup that could haunt any opposing pitcher. Musgrove’s next scheduled start is Tuesday against the Chicago Cubs in Pittsburgh. The Cubs are an excellent hitting team and make Joe Musgrove a risky play for his next start.
It’s difficult to go hitless when you have eight at-bats but Max Kepler did so yesterday against the Tampa Bay Rays. In half of his at-bats, he ended up striking out. He should get going starting tonight with an easier opposing pitching staff to go up against.
Kepler is now 4-for-28 with five strikeouts in his last seven games. Kepler is up to 52 strikeouts in 73 games, so the strikeout number in yesterday’s game was definitely an outlier. Kepler and the Twins head to the south side of Chicago to play the White Sox. Chicago has the sixth-highest batting average against with .266 so with Kepler occupying the top of the order, expect him to get a couple of hits.
Buehler had his worst start of the season last night against the Colorado Rockies. He went 5.2 innings and gave up seven runs on 13 hits, which were both career highs. He also had a walk and four punchouts. This was the second consecutive start against the Rockies, where he pitched a complete game. This was the worst start of Buehler’s career but the game was also played in Coors Field.
It seemed a combination of familiarity and Coors Field affected Buehler last night. The 13 hits allowed was equal to the amount given up in his previous 31 innings. His next scheduled start is Wednesday night at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Buehler should walk right into your lineup for his next start.
Yankees’ General Manager Brian Cashman said today that he does not expect Giancarlo Stanton to return until August. Stanton was placed on the 10-day IL with a PCL strain.
Kevin Kiermaier of the Tampa Bay Rays left yesterday’s game with right lower leg tightness. He is listed as day-to-day and doesn’t expect to miss more than today’s game.
Trevor Story tested out his sprained right thumb in batting practice and fielding drills yesterday. Both he and manager Bud Black have not ruled out a potential rehab stint for the Rockies’ slugger.
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While there aren’t a whole lot of pitchers I like on this slate, there are some guys I absolutely love. That’s why I’ve only provided six selections here, as any one of these guys could be a great pick for your lineup. I’ve also included two Monkey Knife Fight Picks and I’ve actually hit on 10 of my last 15 recommendations!
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Cash Game Pitcher of the Day
Chris Sale, BOS vs. TOR
DK ($12,000) FD ($11,900)
This one really doesn’t take much explanation, as Sale is arguably the best pitcher in the league right now. After getting off to a slow start, Sale has pitched to a 2.24 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over his last 11 starts. What’s more impressive is the fact that he has 116 Ks across 72.1 innings in that span, which is simply the best K rate around. That rate, paired with this matchup makes Sale an easy choice as our cash game pitcher of the day, with the Blue Jays ranking 21st in K rate, 26th in runs scored and 27th in wOBA. That’s why the southpaw enters this matchup as a –360 favorite.
Top-Tier Pitchers
Trevor Bauer, CLE vs. DET
DK ($11,100) FD ($11,500)
Bauer’s inconsistency can drive fantasy owners mad but it’s hard to overlook the strikeout upside in a matchup like this. Dating back to 2017, Bauer is one of the league leaders with a 28 percent K rate. He also has a 2.67 ERA and 1.10 WHIP dating back to last year and this dude is simply one of the most talented pitchers around. What makes him particularly intriguing here is this matchup though, is Bauer pitched a complete game shutout in his last start against these Tigers on June 16. That’s really no surprise when you consider the fact that the Motor City Kitties rank 29th in runs scored, 28th in wOBA and last in K rate. Vegas agrees with this assessment, making Bauer a –200 favorite in this fixture.
Matt Boyd, DET at CLE
DK ($9,700) FD ($10,000)
It’s strange to recommend pitchers from the same game but we should be looking at a lot of whiffs in Cleveland on Friday night. Boyd is actually one of the league leaders with a 112:17 K: BB rate and that number pairs majestically with a 3.35 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. That stat line obviously puts Boyd in play against anyone, but especially an offense like the Indians. Cleveland currently ranks 22nd in runs scored, 23rd in OPS and 21st in wOBA. If you’re a betting man, don’t be afraid to bet the under in this game too, as this eight-run total is too high with these two studs toeing the rubber.
Middle-Tier Pitchers
Aaron Nola, PHI vs. MIA
DK ($8,000) FD ($8,700)
Nola has taken a major step back from his 2018 breakout campaign but a start against the Marlins could be just what the doctor ordered. A 4.81 ERA and 1.51 WHIP will scare off most DFS owners but we’re talking about a guy who has a 3.37 career xFIP and 26 percent K rate. That means he definitely has some positive regression headed his way and a matchup with Miami is a good way to tip the scale back in his favor. In fact, the Marlins currently sit last in runs scored, wOBA and OPS. That’s why Nola enters this matchup as a –230 favorite with Miami projected for only 3.5 runs. Those sorts of projections are unheard-of from a player below $9,000 on both sites.
Yu Darvish, CHC vs. NYM
DK ($7,200) FD ($6,900)
This play is only available if you’re playing the day slate but I had to get my boy Darvish in here. The talented righty has had trouble with his control all season long but recent results are extremely encouraging. Over his last eight starts, Darvish is pitching to a 3.86 ERA and 1.18 WHIP while posting a 10.8 K/9 rate. More importantly, he’s walked three guys or fewer in seven straight starts and that’s what we’re really looking for from a guy with such nasty stuff. A 10-K gem against the Dodgers in his most recent start was the outing that made me realize that Darvish has really turned the corner and I truly believe Yu will be above $8,000 this time next month. We also anticipate Darvish entering this matchup as a –200 favorite, facing a Mets team that ranks 22nd in K rate is and 23rd in xBA.
Cheap Pitcher of the Day
Joe Musgrove, PIT vs. SD
DK ($5,500) FD ($7,500)
Recent results will make you run for the hills when using Musgrove but I’m sensing a major bounce-back here. Okay, you can’t possibly use Musgrove on FanDuel at $7.500 but he’s tough to overlook on DK at $5,500. While he’s had some massive struggles recently, Musgrove has shown signs of brilliance throughout his career. His start to this season was especially impressive, pitching to a 1.54 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over his first six starts. The last nine starts have obviously been frustrating but a lot of that can be chalked up to tough matchups. Facing San Diego is just the way to get him back on track, with the Padres ranking 27th in K rate, 24th in OBP and 26th in xwOBA. The only scary bats on the Padres are Manny Machado, Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe, and they all happen to be righties. That just adds to Musgrove’s intrigue with the platoon advantage in his favor, especially in a pitcher’s park like PNC.
Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Day
Trevor Bauer/Matt Boyd Over 14.5 Strikeouts
After my previous write-ups, this play really doesn’t take much explanation. I think both of these guys are in play for double-digit strikeouts against weak offenses and it really wouldn’t surprise me if they combine for 20 Ks. Even if one of these guys struggles, there’s enough K-upside here to pass this prop with at least one of these pitchers going off.
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Joe Musgrove Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Musgrove has been terrible recently but he’s shown flashes of brilliance. All we need is a little spark of promise to clear this prop, as two or three elite innings could cash this. We’re talking about a guy with a 20.4 percent career K rate facing a club that is sitting 27th in K rate while throwing out a ton of swing-happy righties. That’s a recipe for a lot of strikeouts and five is not asking for much.
Picking the correct pitcher is key to DFS success, and the most important thing to monitor for pitchers is the weather. Picking a pitcher who has their start delayed or outright postponed because of weather can derail a perfect lineup and that’s obviously the one thing we want to avoid. With that in mind, here are the games with questionable forecasts: PIT-OAK and TEX-TOR. Considering we have recommendations in that Pittsburgh game, be sure to check out a forecast before submitting lineups.
Top-Tier Pitchers:
Clayton Kershaw, LAD at SD
DK ($10,100) FD ($11,300)
Kershaw is arguably the best pitcher of our generation and people aren’t treating him like that. His 2.65 career FIP shows just how dominant he’s been throughout his career and his 2.82 xFIP this season shows that he’s not far removed from that. What’s really encouraging is the fact that his K-rate has gotten back to 29 percent this season, as that pairs beautifully with his 5.5 percent BB-rate. That’s why he’s scored at least 20 DK points in all three starts he’s made while recording at least six Ks and six innings pitched in all three games. His upside may be even higher here, as he faces a Padres team that ranks 28th in scoring, 29th in OBP, 27th in xwOBA and 25th in K rate. Not to mention, Kershaw owns a 1.61 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 14 starts at Petco Park throughout his career, striking out 95 batters across 89.2 innings. That’s why Kershaw enters this game as a –185 favorite with San Diego projected for just three runs.
Tyler Glasnow, TB at BAL
DK ($9,600) FD ($10,500)
Glasnow was a preseason breakout candidate of mine and even he has surpassed any expectations I had for him. His 1.75 ERA and 0.94 WHIP speaks loudly, as he hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any start this season. That alone would be impressive, but his 28 percent K rate and .253 xwOBA shows the sort of dominance he possesses. The icing on the cake here is the matchup though, with Baltimore ranking 22nd in scoring, 21st in OBP and 25th in xwOBA. Glasnow enters this matchup as a –210 favorite.
Matt Boyd, DET vs. KC
DK ($9,300) FD ($10,400)
Boyd was a guy who wasn’t even on my radar at the beginning of the season but it’s hard to argue with his current breakout. In fact, Boyd owns a 3.13 ERA and 1.02 WHIP while striking out 48 batters across 37.1 innings. That K rate is the most important factor with Boyd, as that’s simply one of the best strikeout rates in the majors. His peripherals indicate that his numbers should be even better, with Boyd posting a .257 xwOBA and a 2.21 FIP this season. Facing Kansas City is a treat for any pitcher too, with the Royals ranking 19th in OBP and 20th in xwOBA.
Mid-Tier Pitchers:
Kevin Gausman, ATL at MIA
DK ($8,400) FD ($8,100)
Gausman has quietly been really good this season, as his 4.80 ERA is a very unfair number. His 1.07 WHIP is more indicative of the start he’s had and the righty has also added a .296 xwOBA and 3.83 xFIP to counter that unlucky ERA. What’s also impressive is the fact that he has a 28 percent K-rate and an 8.3 percent BB rate, as his 60 percent LOB rate has tilted his ERA. What we like about Gausman here is the fact that he gets to face the worst lineup in the league in the best pitcher’s park in the Majors. In fact, Miami ranks last in scoring and 29th in wOBA. That was crystal clear when Gausman pitched seven scoreless innings in his one start against Miami, striking out seven batters while allowing just four baserunners.
Sonny Gray, CIN vs. SF
DK ($8,200) FD ($8,000)
I honestly have been stacking against Gray for a couple of years now but he appears to be back to his Oakland form this season. Since a dud in the opener, Gray has posted a 3.33 ERA and 0.73 WHIP across his last five starts, striking out 36 batters across 27 innings. That WHIP and K rate is simply impossible to argue with, as those are the ratios of a $10,000 player. That makes Gray impossible to fade in this matchup, with San Francisco ranking 30th in both wOBA and OBP while sitting 29th in xwOBA and runs per game. In addition, Vegas has Gray projected as a –160 favorite, with San Fran projected to score fewer than four runs.
Cheap Pitchers:
Joe Musgrove, PIT vs. OAK
DK ($7,200) FD ($8,700)
It’s strange to call Musgrove a cheap pitcher, but his $7,200 price tag on DraftKings justifies that notion. It’s really hard to understand why he’s so cheap on DK, with Musgrove posting a 1.54 ERA and 0.91 WHIP across six appearances this season. You’d think he has a crappy K rate, looking at those numbers and this price, but his 31 Ks across 35 innings is also a solid rate. Oakland is not a lineup we need to fear either, with the A’s sitting 20th in wOBA and 21st in batting average. Hitting in PNC Park will only hurt them even more, as that’s easily one of the best pitcher’s parks in the majors and Oakland will have to replace their DH with a pitcher.
Brett Anderson, OAK at PIT
DK ($5,800) FD ($6,800)
Anderson is my sneaky play of the day, as he’s simply too cheap. While he’s struggled against Toronto in his last two starts, he’s had a good year otherwise. Anderson posted a 2.61 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in his first four starts, which included games against Boston and at Texas. This is a guy worth considering whenever he’s healthy, as his 3.68 career xFIP shows the sort of stuff he possesses. Facing Pittsburgh is quite the step down from all of those stout AL lineups, with the Pirates ranking 29th in total runs and 26th in both wOBA and OBP. He also gets to face a pitcher in a beautiful pitcher’s park like PNC. This total sitting at 7.5 indicates why both of these guys are solid plays too.
Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day
Tyler Glasnow over 5.5 Strikeouts
We had Carlos Rodon surpassing 5.5 Ks in our first MNF pick of the season and he totally let us down with five Ks in three eight-run innings. That tells us that our process was correct though, so we’re going to go with Glasnow here. The righties’ 28 percent K-rate speaks for itself, as he’s gone at least five innings in all six starts this season. The fact that he threw over 100 pitches for the first time in his most recent start gives him a nice floor too, with six innings and six strikeouts seemingly being the floor for Glasnow. Play MLB Player Prop Games Now and get 100 percent Bonus!
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