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Jeff McNeil

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 8/7 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s 10-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Some light rain in Baltimore, where I’m not looking at pitchers anyway, and some normal pop-up chances in Atlanta and Cincy, but nothing tumultuous that could PPD a game we’re featuring. Giddyup!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Julio Urias ($10,000)

Urias may not have the highest upside on the slate, but both he and a pitcher to be named later offer the best chance at safety in cash games. His solid July numbers (2.30 ERA, .264 wOBA, 20% K rate, 5.6% BB rate) portend a more steady stretch in the season’s second half. The scuffling Angels have hit just .216/.271/.342 over the past week and this should not be considered a get-right spot for the halos. I’ll be plugging Urias in about half my cash and a third of my GPP lines tonight and moving on to some value stacks.

Best GPP Value: Yu Darvish ($9,600)

Last week we discussed how Darvish has struggled in July and had a good spot against the Rockies and he got lit up (including yielding a HR to the opposing pitcher, German Marquez) for 5 ER — though he did rack up 8 Ks and 27 FD points. This time we have reason to expect he can improve on those numbers and hit the 40+ threshold we’re looking for in GPPs. Adam Strangis discusses Darvish’s matchup in the 8/7 Starting Rotation article and as usual it’s a must-read. Darvish has been a reverse-splits pitcher in 2021 because of the soft contact he induces against LHB, and with the D-Backs’ featuring a slew of lefty hitters and the team K rate at 23.6% (24.4% vs. RHP), he’s once again in a great spot for GPPs.

Value Cash/Single-Entry GPP Play: Charlie Morton ($8,700)

At one point, a matchup against the Nationals would have scared me off a guy like Morton, and there may still be some oblivious DFS folks who don’t take advantage of what we’re really getting on this slate with the veteran hurler in this spot. That’s a solid floor of around 30-35 FD points and the opportunity to notch 55-60+ points if he hits his ceiling. Over his past nine starts dating back to June 17, Morton has at least 25 FD points in every one, with four in the 45+ point range and three at 52, 54 and 64 FD points. The Nats have been decimated by injuries and trades and have only or two hitters that really frighten me, so I’ll have some shares of Morton in both cash and GPPs where I may need the extra $1,000 to $1,300 to squeeze in a potent stack.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Colorado Rockies

This idea that we don’t have to tell you to play hitters n Coors has been around for quite a while, but some days you need to reiterate just how high the team total for Colorado (or in many cases their opponent) is. Today’s the home team is in a really great spot against a talented but unproven starter in Jesus Luzardo that may not be ready for the Mile-High treatment. There’s a very good avenue to some decent value in fastball-mashing Brendan Rogers ($3,500) and Elias Diaz ($3,400) before we have to pay a premium for Trevor Story ($4,300) and C.J. Cron ($4,000), and we could always mix in a guy like Yonathan Daza ($3,000). It’s not a slate we need to overthink, and getting exposure to the Rockies is a good idea on a slate where they won’t garner that high of the ownership share.

GPP Stack: Cincinnati Reds

They’ve been RED-hot as of late and just got Mike Moustakas back from the IL Damn near everybody in the lineup got in on the action last night, and now we’ve got a roster chock full of left-handed hitters looking to annihilate Mitch Keller and exceed the massive projected 6+ run total the Cincy crew is carrying into the slate. Moustakas is a ridiculous bargain at $2,500, while some of the usual suspects — Joey Votto ($4,100), Jesse Winker ($4,100), Jonathan India ($3,700) and Nick Castellanos ($3,500) — still feel underpriced somehow. Throw in Kyle Farmer ($2,900), who’s been on absolute fire in the second half (.421/.470/.671 slash line, 1.141 OPS with a 200 wRC+), and lefty Tyler Naquin ($2,900) — and you’ve got plenty of options to choose from.

Contrarian Stack: Cleveland Indians

With the majority of ownership heading to the Rockies, Reds and likley the Dodgers and Braves, I’m more than happy to give the future Guardians a chance to put up galactic numbers against a weak Detroit southpaw (Tyler Alexander) and bullpen. Getting exposure to the top four — Myles Straw ($2,600), Amed Rosario ($2,900), Jose Ramirez ($3,700), Franmil Reyes ($3,500) is optimal, and we can take a few shots with Harold Ramirez (2,400), Bobby Bradley ($2,500) and Oscar Mercado ($2,500) if we need some bargain plays. If we want to pay up for a top arm and fade Coors in some lineups, there’s a few cheap and potent bats on the Detroit end (facing the hittable Eli Morgan) to make this a full game stack! Let’s go DET-CLE!!

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 7/31 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No major weather issues to keep rack of other than a few daytime/evening storms in St. Louis (which could delay the start of MIN-STL but most likely won’t get serious enough for PPD) and possible pop-ups around Atlanta.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Yu Darvish ($9,600)

Darvish has struggled in July but he comes at a discount against a Colorado lineup that should have trouble hitting his pitch arsenal — especially the cutter. Adam Strangis points out in his must-read 7/31 Starting Rotation article that the Rockies are among the worst in the league (and registering a putrid -4.7 Pitch Value vs. wCT over the past 30 days). While the team’s swinging strike rate and K% has decreased over the past month or so, there’s stil a lot of K potential here for Darvish — who projects for the highest FD total tonight among the available SPs. I’m looking at a floor of around 30-35 FD points with upside around 45-50 if he can get the W and QS.

Best GPP Value: Joe Ross ($7,400)

The price on Ross, who hadn’t officially been named the SP for tonight’s game against the firesale-depleted Cubs as of 11 a.m. EST, is just way to low for his 45-50 point upside. The Cubs’ team K rate is probably on the rise, and that almost guarantees a 25-30 point floor for the Nats righty. I think both pitchers in this game can be moderately successful, but with the early absence of Ross in the available SPs (with the green box checked for “show only probably pitchers”) I could see MLB DFS ownership coming in way below what it should for good old JR. Hendricks is $200 more and doesn’t have the same upside, but I’ll use him in maybe 1/10 GPP lineups just to get some variance.

Contrarian GPP Play: Aaron Nola ($11,000)

While Yu Darvish is discounted on FanDuel, Nola is mispriced at just $9,700 on DK — so we could see the Phillies fireballer come in way at lower ownership than normal as the top-priced arm on FD. The strikeout potential is through the roof for Nola facing a Pirates team that struggles against his signature four-seamer, where he gets most of his Ks. On the surface, Nola’s price seems a bit high when compared to the overall numbers of both Brandon Woodruff ($200 cheaper on FD) and Darvish, so he makes for a fine MLB DFS GPP play that probably won’t eclipse 25 or 30% ownership. With some of the massive value that’s out there in our forthcoming stacks, it shouldn’t be a problem affording him.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Chicago White Sox

Both sides of this game could post monster offensive numbers, and while I like the Indians as a GPP stack, the White Sox offer the most safety in cash games and single-entry builds. Cleveland SP Triston McKenzie has some electric stuff, but he walks 6.37 batters per 9 IP and is carrying a 5.61/5.15 ERA/FIP heading into tonight’s matchup. The three most important MLB DFS hitters to roster are Tim Anderson ($3,600), Jose Abreu ($3,400) and Yoan Moncada ($2,900), who came alive last night (3-for-5 with a HR and two runs scored). Abreu got plunked in the helmet last night and that caused a near fracas, so he might be looking for revenge today with the boomstick. Keep an eye on the status of Eloy Jimenez ($3,300), who’s DTD to with a groin issue, and also consider Andrew Vaughn ($2,900).

Value Stack: New York Mets

The Mets are in a great spot tonight against southpaw Wade Miley, who they faced on July 20. I always like a second crack at the same starting pitcher within a two-week time frame, and Miley wasn’t exactly boasting his best stuff in his last start on July 26 (my birthday!). They’ve added Javier Baez ($3,400) to their lineup, and he’s exactly what they need (.410 wOBA vs. LHP) to supplement the potent bats of Pete Alonso ($3,800 — and an even better wOBA vs. LHP than Baez) and the value laden J.D. Davis ($2,800) and James McCann ($2,200). Keep an eye on the status of the still-cheap Brandon Nimmo ($2700 — DTD with a hamstring “pinch”) and whatever the new lineup looks like with Baez in the mix, and consider lefty Jeff McNeil ($2,700) if he’s starting, since he’s sporting a .330 wOBA vs. LHP.

Contrarian Stack: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners aren’t a bunch that I get excited about stacking too often, but given the fact that they always fly under the radar and the smash spot some of these right-handed hitters are in for this matchup, I’m getting some exposure in GPPs. They immediately stood out when I looked at team totals and matchups for tonight and I as subsequently giddy to find out they were highlighted as the primary stack in Adam’s article (this could mean BIG GREEN SCREENS for WinDaily subscribers tonight)! I’m anchoring my stacks to Mitch Haniger ($3,400) and his .380 wOBA vs. LHP over his last 108 AB. Haniger has 10 HRs in those 108 AB and will be on all my SEA stacks. After that I’ll be mixing in three-man combinations among Ty France ($2,800), Luis Torrens ($2,600), Dylan Moore ($2,600), the recently acquired Abraham Toro ($2,500) and lefties Kyle Seager ($3,100) and leadoff hitter J.P Crawford ($2,500) — who both have wOBAs north of .300 against LHP.

One or more of that group might sit out tonight, so keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/17 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Mets Marauding Melville

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a loaded 14-game 7:05 EST main slate for MLB 9/17 DFS – one that we’ve got some high game totals for, including another big-time stack at Coors. The lineups get unstable toward the end of the year, but that just gives us more opportunities to embrace the variance and make it fun on this enormous slate.

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9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

NewYork Mets at Tim Melville (NYM at COL)

The Mets are expensive but have the highest implied total on the slate. Last night they scored just four runs in Coors but on Tuesday get to face Melville, who’s been torched in his three home starts (.516 xwOBA, 9.00 ERA, 6.31 xFIP). I’ll be applying a liberal smattering of Mets hitters in most of my lineups, with most of my exposure coming with the first five hitters: Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano and Pete Alonso. Wilson Ramos is a very affordable $2,900 on FD as well, where he can be used in one of two spots.

Boston Red Sox vs. Logan Webb (BOS vs. SF)

The Sox may be missing Mookie Betts (foot) but they’re still a powerful bunch of bats in a hitter’s park. Logan Webb has been tuned up for a .400 xwOBA vs. RHP) during his short time in the Majors, and he’s not going to like the ballpark shift from Oracle. The usual suspects (Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Andrew Benintendi) are all $5,000 or under on DK, and Mitch Moreland is just $4,200.

Toronto Blue Jays at Dylan Bundy/Chandler Shepherd

The Blue Jays are a sneaky stack in a slate with Coors Field on the docket, and they’ll be playing in Baltimore, where the homers fly out and the Orioles pitching staff has reached a new nadir in allowing the long ball. I’m stacking the 1-5 with occasional shares of Randal Grichuk ($4,300 DK) and Billy McKinney ($3,300 DK).

Cleveland Indians vs. John Schreiber/Spencer Turnbull (CLE vs.DET)

The Indians are underpriced for the matchup on this 9/17 DFS slate, whether it’s against Schreiber (the possible opener) or Turnbull, who’s really struggled this season (3-15 in 27 starts with a 4.77 ERA and 1.48 WHIP). I’m leaning toward mini-stacks considering there are so many other great matchups on this slate, but feel free to grab shares of the 1-5 hitters and get some exposure to the value bats (Franmil Reyes, Mike Freeman and Jordan Luplow, if he’s in the lineup).

9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Atlanta Braves at Vince Velazquez (It’s tough to fadeFreeman and Co. in a hitter’s park)

Miami Marlins at LHP Alex Young (all the righties –including my guy Starlin Castro)

Colorado Rockies vs. Marcus Stroman (The contrarian side ofCoors against a decent RHP)

9/17 DFS Hitting Catcher

J.T. Realmuto, PHI at ATL

DK ($4,600) FD ($3,900)

I’m a huge fan of Realmuto, who sports a .443 xwOBA and .227 ISO against LHPs over the past two seasons. It’s a one-off play that should command low ownership and provide a decent floor – as well as immense upside in GPPs.

9/17 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Rowdy Tellez, TOR at BAL

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,600)

Tellez has four homers in his last 11 games, crushes right-handedpitching (.453 xwOBA, .245 ISO since 2018), and bats fourth between Lourdes Gurrieland Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Tellez is my double-dinger call of the day, and he’snot really thrown off by lefty relievers, either (.430 xwOBA against LHPs since2018).

9/17 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,700)

Biggio is another Jays bat I want exposure to in Camden Yards, where he’s already got three homers in five career games and a 168 OPS+ that screams GPP play. As part of stack or simply a value bat at a reasonable price, Biggio makes a solid play for his speed and power.

9/17 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Matt Chapman, OAK vs. KC

DK ($4,200) FD ($3,600)

Chapman and his surging power numbers (4 HRs in September so far) couldbe overlooked on this slate, and if you’re wary of spending more than $5K for J.D.Davis but still want to get some other Coors bats in, he could be a big help.All these games matter for the A’s, and Chapman (.423 xwOBA and .250 ISO vs.RHPs since 2018) is the heart and soul of their lineup along with Matt Olsonand Marcus Semien, the other two Oakland bats with 30+ homers this year.

9/17 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Francisco Lindor, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,800) FD ($4,000)

Lindor is my favorite shortstop of this slate. He gets lotsof ABs and benefits from a circular Indians lineup that has some decent hittersat the bottom of the order – giving him some run-creating opportunities alongwith table-setting ability. His price is cheaper than Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Storyand Bo Bichette on DK (with just as much GPP upside) and he’s playable in allformats at home (where he owns a .386 wOBA and .403 xwOBA sine 2018) against theTigers.

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9/17 DFS Hitting Outfielders

J.D. Martinez, BOS vs. SF

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

Idiscussed the Red Sox stack up top, but if there’s one bat from Boston I’d likein this matchup, it’s J.D. His .506 xwOBA vs. RHPs since 2018 (over a hugesample of 998 plate appearances) means he can hit all types of pitching (it’s apreposterous .560 vs. LHPs) and he’s still surrounded by Bogaerts andBenintendi, who both hit RHPs well. I’m banking on a three-run homer for the RedSox OF/DH in hitter-friendly Fenway against young Logan Webb (.400 xwOBA vs. RHP).

Oscar Mercado, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,000)

Thehome numbers for Mercado are impressive (.290/.340/.477) and his bat has beenshowing some life again (10 hits in his last 26 AB). You’re getting thetalented young OF at a discount on both sites, and he’s a great piece to havein Indians mini stacks along with Lindor and Carlos Santana.

Garrett Hampson, COL vs. NYM

DK ($3,500) FD ($3,200)

Hampson is red-hot at the plate and is dirt cheap onDK. He’s played much better since getting more regular time, starting in theRockies’ last five straight and games and going 11-for-22 over that stretch(counting Monday night). He’s easy to overlook in the lineup as the No. 7 hitterand makes plenty of sense in both cash games and GPPs.

Additional options:

C:Roberto Perez ($3,600 DK, $2,900FD), Reese McGuire ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD)

1B: Pete Alonso ($5,600 DK, $4,300 FD), Carlos Santana($4,300 DK, $3,900 FD)

2B: Robinson Cano ($4,700 DK, $3,600 FD), Jonathan Villar($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD)

3B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($3,900 DK, $2,900 FD), EugenioSuarez ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD), Xander Bogaerts ($5,000DK, 3,800 FD)

OF: Austin Meadows ($5,600 DK, $4,400 FD), Yordan Alvarez ($5,200DK, $4,100 FD), Brandon Nimmo ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD), Khris Davis ($3,800 DK,$3,200 FD), Michael Brantley ($4,000 DK, $3,800 FD), Matt Joyce ($4,100 DK, $2,400FD)

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

9/12 MLB DFS Winners

Vincent Pensabene 5 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Wednesday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/12 MLB DFS review and look ahead.

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9/12 MLB DFS Winner: Tim Anderson

As Jason had him in our Premium Gold Cheatsheet as a shortstop, Tim Anderson had a solid day at the plate against the Kansas City Royals. At the plate, Anderson went 2-for-4 with a pair of runs scored.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Anderson will be competing with D.J. LeMahieu and Michael Brantley for the A.L. Batting Title. Anderson is currently at .333 after this game with 17 games remaining. Expect Tim Anderson to stay in the top three shortstops as the team has nothing to play for for the rest of the season.

9/12 MLB DFS Winner: Jeff McNeil

Here is a screenshot of the New York Mets batters in order of projected points based off of our Premium Gold FanDuel Hitter Projection Model. Jeff McNeil ended up being their best hitter for the game against the Arizona Diamondbacks. He went 3-for-4 with a stolen base, double, two homers and three RBI.

Outlook for the rest of the season: McNeil has vastly improved in every category this season except stealing bases, so it was nice to see him swipe a bag as well. He is doing a great job providing protection in the lineup to Pete Alonso. Expect Jeff McNeil to continue getting multi-hit games and driving in runners in the middle of this Mets order.

9/12 MLB DFS Winner: Chris Paddack

A screenshot of our Premium Pitcher Projection Model. This was the Top 10 pitchers on yesterday’s slate based on salary. Chris Paddack dominated the Chicago Cubs last night at home, going six shutout innings allowing just three hits and a walk while picking up seven strikeouts.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Chris Paddack is doing great in his spoiler role going down the stretch. This is back-to-back outings without allowing a run. The fact he isn’t showing signs of slowing down in his rookie season is great for the future. Expect Paddack to finish the year strong.

9/12 MLB DFS Winner: Texas Rangers Offense

The Texas Rangers had good prodcution from their lineup at home against the Tampa Bay Rays last night, picking up 10 runs on 10 hits with three walks. Six players in the starting lineup picked up a RBI and they were led by Rougned Odor with the game-winning three-run home run in the seventh inning.

Outlook for the rest of the season: The Rangers are a good run-producing team with the sixth-highest total in the American League at 732. That equates to just under five runs a game. Their offense isn’t the reason they find themselves at 73-74 on the year. Expect the team to produce runs but not to the point where you expect double-digits on a weekly basis.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

7/27 MLB DFS Winners and Losers

Sean Escobar 5 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

We had a full 15-game slate on Friday July 26. All points and price values for the 7/27 MLB DFS Winners and Losers are based off DraftKings.

If you want to check out some of my other work click here!

Want to know who the Winners and Losers will be tonight? Premium Gold members can consult our premium projections and rankings!

7/27 MLB DFS Winners

Mookie Betts ($5,100)

Mookie Betts played like a man possessed last night against the New York Yankees. He went 4-for-5 with three homers, a double, four runs and five RBI. Betts now has 18 HR and 54 RBI on the year and looks like he is getting to the MVP level of play he was at last season. Continue to ride Betts’ hot bat in today’s slate.

Betts’ Outlook

This was the closest we have gotten to 2018 Mookie Betts this season. He immediately made an impact with a leadoff homer off of James Paxton. He managed to go 3-for-3 with three home runs off Paxton. The Red Sox continue the series today and it’s insane if Mookie Betts isn’t in your MLB DFS lineup.

Jeff McNeil ($4,800)

Jeff McNeil went 1-for-3 on against Dario Agrazal and the Pittsburgh Pirates. McNeil had a home run, three RBI and a run. He also provided the only hit with a runner in scoring position for the Mets throughout the game. McNeil raised his OPS to .913 and expect that number to continue to increase with some production in today’s game.

McNeil’s Outlook

Jeff McNeil is leading the world in batting with a .340 average after around 100 games in the season. It would be difficult to find a stretch where he hasn’t produced, being one of the few Mets players that you can say that about. In his past 30 games, he is batting .352 with a .590 slugging. The Mets continue their home series against the Pirates and McNeil should be in everyone’s DFS lineup one way or another.

7/27 MLB DFS Losers

Corey Seager ($4,100)

Corey Seager went hitless in his four trips to the plate yesterday against the Washington Nationals. This was more of the Nationals’ Anibal Sanchez being good than Seager being bad, but if you consultedo the Cheat Sheet, you would have known to avoid Seager. Look for Seager to bounce back in today’s game, though.

Seager’s Outlook

Corey Seager may not have had any luck in yesterday’s game, but has still been one of the best hitters in baseball recently. In his last 30 games, he has a .390 OBP and a .555 slugging from the shortstop position. The Dodgers face off against Joe Ross this afternoon and Seager should tally at least a pair of hits in the game.

Tim Beckham ($3,600)

Tim Beckham did not provide much value to DFS players in his game against the Detroit Tigers. He went 1-for-3 with a walk and a strikeout from the three-hole in the lineup. Beckham has been a mediocre hitter in July so avoid him.

Beckham’s Outlook

Tim Beckham has been a mediocre hitter lately. In his last 30 games, he is posting a .222 batting average. He needs to be able to drive in runs from the third spot in the order and striking out once every three at-bats in this stretch is not helping, especially against a 30-win Tigers team. Avoid Beckham for the second consecutive day.

7/27 MLB DFS Injury Update

The Baltimore Orioles placed All-Star John Means on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to July 25, with a left biceps strain.

The Cleveland Indians scratched Carlos Santana from the lineup before first pitch with left shoulder soreness.

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

Stack Report for Main Slate: Winning Edge for July 6

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

This report will provide stacks that I recommend for today’s 7 game main slate. I’ve also included my favorite one-offs and value plays.

Houston Astros Stack

vs. LHP Andrew Heaney (LAA): 5.70 Runs

This is a play you’re not going to be able to get away from tonight. Andrew Heaney carries a 5.40 ERA, 5.39 FIP, and 4.20 SIERA through 36.2 innings pitched. Through 27 innings pitched, right handed batters are slashing .319 wOBA, .449 SLG, and to a .304 OBP against Heaney. The Astros have been hitting very well recently, slashing .374 wOBA, .204 ISO, and a .516 SLG. Smaller slate tonight so ownership will be a lot more concentrated on the Astros but it is good chalk and I’m perfectly fine with eating it.

Preferred Stack: (in order of preference) Jose Altuve $3700 FD|$4200 DK, Alex Bregman $4300 FD|$5000 DK, Yordan Alvarez $4100 FD|$4800 DK, Yuli Gurriel $3400|$4400, and Robinson Chirinos $3100 FD|$3800 DK. George Springer ($4400 FD|$5400 DK) is my last choice for higher priced guys but if you’re playing multiple lines I would definitely have exposure.

New York Mets Stack

vs. RHP Jake Arrieta (PHI): 5.00 Runs

I’ve eagerly awaited a solid left handed power hitting team to go against Jake Arrieta since those string of rainouts in Washington a few weeks back. He carries 4.43 ERA, 5.15 FIP, and a 4.85 SIERA into tonight’s game. He is absolutely terrible to left handed batters. They are slashing .383 wOBA, .535 SLG, and to a .386 OBP through 43.0 innings pitched. He has surrendered 27 earned runs and 11 home runs over that same span. The Mets are hitting to a tune of .313 wOBA, .181 ISO, and 101 WRC+ over the last two weeks, slightly above their season averages. Be weary of the weather here tonight.

Oakland Athletics Stack

vs. LHP Marco Gonzales (SEA): 5.15 Runs

Marco Gonzales carries a 4.39 ERA, 4.11 FIP, and 5.14 SIERA into tonight’s game. He has fairly identical splits with a .324 wOBA, .444 SLG, and .327 OBP through 78.1 innings pitched against right handed batters. Most should be focused on that Astros stack and probably spending down for some cheap Cardinals so we have a chance to catch the A’s at low ownership. I didn’t list them, but I know they let down a lot of people last night. The A’s are slashing to a .349 wOBA, .223 ISO, and .499 SLG vs. left handed pitching this season. The team as a whole has been in a bit of a hitting slump over the last two weeks, slashing to a .246 wOBA, .112 ISO, and .303 SLG in that time span. I always feel like Oakland is pretty risky, but I’ll go there in GPPs tonight.

One-offs and Value Plays

Josh Phegley (OAK) $2600 FD| $3700 DK, Robinson Chirinos (HOU) $3100 FD| $3800 DK, Hunter Renfroe (SDP) $2700 FD, Jose Martinez (STL) $2700 FD|$3500 DK, Paul Goldschmidt (STL) $3000 FD|$3400 DK, and Brad Miller (PHI) $2000 FD|$3500 DK.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS Hitting Stacks for 7/6: Yes, Use Some Mets

Mark Sheppard 5 years ago

written by Mark Sheppard

MLB DFS Hitting Stacks recommendations for the Saturday slate.

First Base – Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians

DraftKings $5,100, FanDuel $4,300

Anthony Desclafani has massive trouble against left handed bats, allowing a .315 BAA and a .508 SLG.

Second Base – Jeff McNeil, New York Mets

DraftKings $4,900, FanDuel $3,600

This season Jake Arrieta has struggled against left handed bats. He is allowing a .306 BAA and a massive 41.5 hard hit rate. Target him in DFS today.

Third Base – Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox

DraftKings $5,600, Fanduel $4,500

Jordan Zimmerman is a gas can for us in DFS and at home he is even worse. He has trouble walking left handed bats and with a .488 SLG he has trouble not giving up extra bases.

Shortstop – Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians

DraftKings $4,900, FanDuel $4,200

Same story with Santana, I want the lefties here in DFS and it helps Lindor is a switch hitter, so we get the platoon the whole game.

Outfield – J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox

DraftKings $5,000, Fanduel $4,300

What’s not to love about J.D. against a gas can? Although Zimmerman gives up less power to righties, he strikes them out less also. This means the ball is going to be put in play and I’ll take my chances with one of the league’s best.

Outfield – Michael Conforto, New York Mets

DraftKings $4,400, FanDuel $3,500

As I said with McNeil, Arreita struggles with getting left handed bats out. Conforto is one of the league’s top young left handed bats and can go deep at any second, I think he pokes one out of the yard here so use him in DFS today.

Outfield – Andrew Benintendi, Boston Red Sox

DraftKings $4,300, FanDuel $3,500

This is a ridiculous DFS price for one, and for two Zimmerman struggles with lefties as I said with Devers. I always love getting the leadoff hitter against a terrible pitcher in the team I’m going to stack.

MLB DFS Hitting Stacks

1.) Boston Red Sox

Surprise? Jordan Zimmerman is a complete gas can. At home he holds a 5.40 ERA, a .340 wOBA, and a 49.3 hard hit percentage. That hard hit rate is what I’m intrigued with because these Sox hit the ball HARD. With the power that they hold I think they could easily chase Zimmerman within four innings today.

2.) New York Mets

I know, I know the Mets in DFS? Just listen. Arrieta cannot get left handed bats out, he is horrible. With the likes of McNeil, Conforto, Cano, and Dominic Smith on the left side of the plate I think Arrieta has loads of trouble. Then on the right side of the plate you have to worry about the Mets’ best hitter this year, Pete Alonso. I think Arrieta is in for a rude awakening at Citi Field today.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS Hitting Picks for 6/5 – Nats Bats

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

The first thing you need to do before this slate is to check in with the weatherman, Mark Paquette. We have a few games with questionable forecasts and he’ll give you all the updates you need. What makes this slate especially fun is the fact that we have a ton of crappy pitchers taking the mound. That’s why I’m mainly going to focus on value plays and let you fill in the studs around them.

Catcher

Wilson Ramos, NYM vs. SF

DK ($4,500) FD ($2,600)

Ramos is probably one of the five best hitting catchers in the Majors and these DFS sites continue to undervalue him. The $2,600 price tag on FanDuel is simply laughable but they know that many owners don’t want to play a catcher at the C/1B slot. We’re willing to slide him in there at this price though, especially in a matchup like this. Ramos gets to square off against Tyler Beede, whose .415 wOBA and 2.37 WHIP are some of the worst numbers around. Ramos is rolling right now too, hitting .419 over his last 13 games while providing five homers, six walks, 11 runs scored and 11 RBI in that span.

Also Consider: Depending on who starts, Kurt Suzuki and Yan Gomes are fantastic values against Dylan Covey.

First Base

Matt Adams, WSH vs. CWS

DK ($4,400) FD ($3,100)

Adams has found himself as the regular first baseman for the Nationals and it’s a wonder why his price isn’t higher. We’re talking about a slugging first baseman who has a career OPS approaching .800 and a SLG just shy of .500. That makes this price hard to understand, especially when you consider the fact that he gets the platoon advantage in his favor. Since 2017, Adams is posting an .842 OPS and .519 SLG against right-handed pitching. That’s fantastic considering he gets to face Dylan Covey and we’ll go over his ugly numbers later in the article.

Also Consider: Eric Thames is only $3,000 on FanDuel and is a fantastic bargain with his dominance against right-handed pitching.

Second Base

Jeff McNeil, NYM vs. SF

DK ($4,300) FD ($2,700)

McNeil’s price is low because he just came off the IL but he has quietly been one of the best hitters for the Mets this season. In fact, the lefty batter has a .333 average and .879 OPS so far this season. That’s why he typically bats leadoff and he is very enticing against a guy like Beede. The San Francisco pitcher is working to a 7.82 ERA and 2.37 WHIP this season, which are simply some of the worst numbers in the Majors. McNeil is traditionally better against righties too, posting a .341 average and .878 OPS against them in his career.

Also Consider: Mike Moustakas is very expensive but he’s probably the highest projected second baseman on the schedule.

Third Base

Travis Shaw, MIL vs. MIA

DK ($2,800) FD ($2,200)

There’s no doubt that Shaw has been downright terrible this season but this price is hard to overlook. We’re talking about a guy who has at least 30 homers in back-to-back seasons while posting an ISO well above .200 in that span. Coming off the IL after missing a few weeks could be just what the doctor ordered and it’s crazy to see a $4,000-player priced this cheaply. The fact that he gets to face a righty only adds to his intrigue, with Shaw posting an .864 OPS against righties since the beginning of 2017.

Also Consider: Todd Frazier has been turning things around recently and could have success against a gas can like Beede.

Shortstop

Trea Turner, WSH vs. CWS

DK ($5,000) FD ($4,000)

Turner is undoubtedly my favorite shortstop play on the board and I’m definitely willing to pay up to get him. It’s not like we even have to pay much to get him either, as he’s not even in the Top 5 at shortstop on both sites. That’s criminal for a guy who’s a Top 5 overall pick in season-long fantasy and he’s simply one of the most dynamic players in the league. The reason we like him here is because he faces Dylan Covey, who’s posting a 4.73 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, which is actually due for some negative regression when looking at his nightmarish .412 xwOBA.

Also Consider: If you’re looking for someone cheaper, Jean Segura is below $4,000 on both sites.

Outfield

Juan Soto, WSH vs. CWS

DK ($5,800) FD ($4,800)

Alright, we’ve been providing a ton of value so far, so let’s get into a couple of stud outfielders. Soto may be my favorite play on the board, as he should abuse Covey in this matchup. The aforementioned numbers from Covey are a major reason why, with the Nationals entering this matchup with one of the highest projected team totals on the slate. Soto comes into this matchup scorching too, hitting .413 over his last 17 games while collecting seven doubles, four homers, 11 walks, 17 runs scored and 14 RBI in that span. Getting the platoon advantage is the icing on the cake, with Soto posting a .936 OPS and .522 SLG against righties in his career.

J.D. Martinez, BOS at KC

DK ($4,800) FD ($4,200)

Quite simply, this guy needs to be more expensive. It’s really bizarre to have to scroll down to find him and it really doesn’t make any sense why these sites continue to undervalue him. What I really like about Martinez is the hitting profile, as his .428 xwOBA and .626 xSLG indicates that his good numbers should be even better. His recent form indicates that he’s starting to hit some of that positive regression, with J.D. hitting five homers and three doubles over his last 14 games. Facing Jakob Junis is encouraging too, with the K.C. righty posting a 5.35 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this season while providing one of the worst HR rates since the beginning of last year.

Eloy Jimenez, CWS at WSH

DK ($3,400) FD ($2,700)

Jimenez is probably my favorite value at outfield on this slate, as he’s simply been a better player away from home. The top prospect actually said that he’s pressing at home and swinging more freely on the road and that’s crystal clear in his splits. In fact, Jimenez has all six of his homers away from home while providing 10 of his 13 RBI on the road as well. That’s simply bizarre and it’s just a matter of time before he lives up to his sky-high potential. We’re talking about a guy who posted .980 OPS at the Triple-A level and an absurd .588 SLG. That will eventually carry over to this level and we’ll bet on it starting here against Anibal Sanchez, who hast a 4.47 ERA and 1.51 WHIP so far this season. The Washington righty has actually allowed 106 homers since the beginning of 2017 and that’s one of the three highest totals In the Majors. If you’re in season-long formats, buy low on Jimenez!

Also Consider: Yasiel Puig remains too cheap on both sites and gets a quality matchup against Dakota Hudson. If Delino DeShields bats second again, he’s definitely in play against a lefty in a hitter’s haven like Globe Life Park.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS Hitting Picks for 6/5 – Nats Bats

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

Catcher

Wilson Ramos, NYM vs. SF

DK ($4,500) FD ($2,600)

Also Consider: Depending on who starts, Kurt Suzuki and Yan Gomes are fantastic values against Dylan Covey.

First Base

Matt Adams, WSH vs. CWS

DK ($4,400) FD ($3,100)

Also Consider: Eric Thames is only $3,000 on FanDuel and is a fantastic bargain with his dominance against right-handed pitching.

Second Base

Jeff McNeil, NYM vs. SF

DK ($4,300) FD ($2,700)

Also Consider: Mike Moustakas is very expensive but he’s probably the highest projected second baseman on the schedule.

Third Base

Travis Shaw, MIL vs. MIA

DK ($2,800) FD ($2,200)

Also Consider: Todd Frazier has been turning things around recently and could have success against a gas can like Beede.

Shortstop

Trea Turner, WSH vs. CWS

DK ($5,000) FD ($4,000)

Also Consider: If you’re looking for someone cheaper, Jean Segura is below $4,000 on both sites.

Outfield

Juan Soto, WSH vs. CWS

DK ($5,800) FD ($4,800)

J.D. Martinez, BOS at KC

DK ($4,800) FD ($4,200)

Eloy Jimenez, CWS at WSH

DK ($3,400) FD ($2,700)

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS Hitting Picks for 6/5 – Nats Bats

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

Catcher

Wilson Ramos, NYM vs. SF

DK ($4,500) FD ($2,600)

Also Consider: Depending on who starts, Kurt Suzuki and Yan Gomes are fantastic values against Dylan Covey.

First Base

Matt Adams, WSH vs. CWS

DK ($4,400) FD ($3,100)

Also Consider: Eric Thames is only $3,000 on FanDuel and is a fantastic bargain with his dominance against right-handed pitching.

Second Base

Jeff McNeil, NYM vs. SF

DK ($4,300) FD ($2,700)

Also Consider: Mike Moustakas is very expensive but he’s probably the highest projected second baseman on the schedule.

Third Base

Travis Shaw, MIL vs. MIA

DK ($2,800) FD ($2,200)

Also Consider: Todd Frazier has been turning things around recently and could have success against a gas can like Beede.

Shortstop

Trea Turner, WSH vs. CWS

DK ($5,000) FD ($4,000)

Also Consider: If you’re looking for someone cheaper, Jean Segura is below $4,000 on both sites.

Outfield

Juan Soto, WSH vs. CWS

DK ($5,800) FD ($4,800)

J.D. Martinez, BOS at KC

DK ($4,800) FD ($4,200)

Eloy Jimenez, CWS at WSH

DK ($3,400) FD ($2,700)

5 years ago 0 comments