GPP

I went solo this week for the Bettor Golf Podcast and also was included on the show that went off the rails for the PGA Draftcast. I would highly recommend giving those a listen if you haven’t yet.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Justin Thomas ($10,600) – Justin Thomas has one of the best statical profiles I have seen for a course in a long time, and it is just going to come down to his ability to be near even or better with the flat stick if he wants to get himself across the finish line. The 29-year-old ranks inside the top-five of this field for par-five scoring, par-four average, lengthy courses that require long iron proximity, easy scoring, venues that are not producing wayward drive penalties, windy conditions and sand save percentage, and the putter is always more hit-and-miss than it is good-or-bad at a particular grass type, which might be a positive since he has gained in four of his last six starts. I believe a win could be around the corner, and TPC Craig Ranch highlights the skillset that he brings in spades.

Other Consideration – I would rank the remaining three – 1. Dustin Johnson ($10,200), 2. Jordan Spieth ($10,100) and 3. Scottie Scheffler ($10,900), but all make sense in the right build. I don’t want to talk anyone out of whatever route they prefer.

$9,000 Range

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,000) – Am I jumping for joy with my Tommy Fleetwood selection? No. But there is leverage to be found for a golfer that has produced six straight finishes inside the top-35. That built-in floor gives us an intriguing cash-game play at his price, and we might be able to get the best of both worlds because of his six percent going rate as of Tuesday night. From a game theory perspective, Fleetwood, Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka are the three outside-the-box choices to consider from $9,000 and above, and I lean towards Fleetwood or Johnson being the two that I will find myself most overweight on compared to their counterparts.

Other Targets: Xander Schauffele ($9700) – GPP-worthy at sub-10 percent. It is hard to argue against Sam Burns ($9,500) and Will Zalatoris ($9,400), just be aware of roster construction with their ownership totals. And Brooks Koepka (9,200) is worth a small dabble if he remains at two percent

$8,000 Range

Talor Gooch ($8,600) – In my model, Talor Gooch was a climber when looking specifically at Bentgrass putting, and the combination of wind play and success at longer courses is intriguing, especially since off the tee prowess isn’t exactly what he is known for with his game. Still, though, Gooch ranks seventh in this field when condensing the data down to feature tracks over 7,400 yards that require a high percentage of irons from 200+ yards, which is good enough for me to take some chances with him at around 12%.

Jason Kokrak ($8,300) – Jason Kokrak is the #1 Bentgrass putter in this field. High-end returns like that always intrigue me when I can grab a player that is elite in a particular area, even if we are talking about a volatile statistic such as putting.

Aaron Wise ($8,100) – I want to preface this by saying that I don’t love Aaron Wise’s 16 percent going rate, but I also can’t say I disagree with the popularity because of his modest price tag of $8,100. Wise looks to be trending again after a slow start to the year, and his combination of par-five scoring and wind play is an enticing combination for a golfer that grades inside the top-16 in my weighted OTT + APP category.

Other Thoughts: Jhonattan Vegas ($8,400) – Is the ownership too high? Maybe? But the price tag is beautiful. Jason Day ($8,200) – Surprise, surprise. I am all for going back to Day in GPP contests.

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Alex Noren ($7,900) – Quality form + a reasonable price tag of $7,900 makes Alex Noren an option in all game types. I selected him during the PGA Draftcast tonight, and I believe he has a top-25 finish well within his most likely range of outcomes.

Seamus Power ($7,900) – A ninth-place finish at TPC Craig Ranch in 2021, Seamus Power enters the week under the radar thanks to his up-and-down form in 2022. I am willing to bet on the upside.

Si Woo Kim ($7,800) – Fourteen straight made cuts during events Si Woo Kim hasn’t withdrawn. That built-in safety is hard to ignore at five percent and $7,800.

Bubba Watson ($7,500) – Maybe this is getting too aggressive, but I will take my swings on Bubba Watson, who looks like a two-percent golfer on this slate. The birdie-making prowess is questionable, but the TPC layout does amplify his chances of finding success.

Matthew Wolff ($7,200), Patrick Rodgers ($7,000) – Neither will be for the faint of heart because of their combustibility, but sub-five percent marks and positive trajectory in upside should be exactly what we are looking for when targeting these lower-priced options with some semblance of win equity to their games.

Additional Thoughts: Maverick McNealy ($7,800) – Ownership is the only drawback. Ryan Palmer ($7,400) – Texas narrative and great wind player. Luke List ($7,300) – Volatile option that has top-10 upside at the price tag. Charles Howell III ($7,200) – CH3 is the largest climber in my model when comparing his Bentgrass putting versus all surfaces.

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: The section doesn’t have a ton. Danny Willet ($6,900) and Pat Perez ($6,700) would be my two preferred targets.

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

I went solo this week for the Bettor Golf Podcast and also was included on the show that went off the rails for the PGA Draftcast. I would highly recommend giving those a listen if you haven’t yet.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Justin Thomas ($10,600) – Justin Thomas has one of the best statical profiles I have seen for a course in a long time, and it is just going to come down to his ability to be near even or better with the flat stick if he wants to get himself across the finish line. The 29-year-old ranks inside the top-five of this field for par-five scoring, par-four average, lengthy courses that require long iron proximity, easy scoring, venues that are not producing wayward drive penalties, windy conditions and sand save percentage, and the putter is always more hit-and-miss than it is good-or-bad at a particular grass type, which might be a positive since he has gained in four of his last six starts. I believe a win could be around the corner, and TPC Craig Ranch highlights the skillset that he brings in spades.

Other Consideration – I would rank the remaining three – 1. Dustin Johnson ($10,200), 2. Jordan Spieth ($10,100) and 3. Scottie Scheffler ($10,900), but all make sense in the right build. I don’t want to talk anyone out of whatever route they prefer.

$9,000 Range

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,000) – Am I jumping for joy with my Tommy Fleetwood selection? No. But there is leverage to be found for a golfer that has produced six straight finishes inside the top-35. That built-in floor gives us an intriguing cash-game play at his price, and we might be able to get the best of both worlds because of his six percent going rate as of Tuesday night. From a game theory perspective, Fleetwood, Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka are the three outside-the-box choices to consider from $9,000 and above, and I lean towards Fleetwood or Johnson being the two that I will find myself most overweight on compared to their counterparts.

Other Targets: Xander Schauffele ($9700) – GPP-worthy at sub-10 percent. It is hard to argue against Sam Burns ($9,500) and Will Zalatoris ($9,400), just be aware of roster construction with their ownership totals. And Brooks Koepka (9,200) is worth a small dabble if he remains at two percent

$8,000 Range

Talor Gooch ($8,600) – In my model, Talor Gooch was a climber when looking specifically at Bentgrass putting, and the combination of wind play and success at longer courses is intriguing, especially since off the tee prowess isn’t exactly what he is known for with his game. Still, though, Gooch ranks seventh in this field when condensing the data down to feature tracks over 7,400 yards that require a high percentage of irons from 200+ yards, which is good enough for me to take some chances with him at around 12%.

Jason Kokrak ($8,300) – Jason Kokrak is the #1 Bentgrass putter in this field. High-end returns like that always intrigue me when I can grab a player that is elite in a particular area, even if we are talking about a volatile statistic such as putting.

Aaron Wise ($8,100) – I want to preface this by saying that I don’t love Aaron Wise’s 16 percent going rate, but I also can’t say I disagree with the popularity because of his modest price tag of $8,100. Wise looks to be trending again after a slow start to the year, and his combination of par-five scoring and wind play is an enticing combination for a golfer that grades inside the top-16 in my weighted OTT + APP category.

Other Thoughts: Jhonattan Vegas ($8,400) – Is the ownership too high? Maybe? But the price tag is beautiful. Jason Day ($8,200) – Surprise, surprise. I am all for going back to Day in GPP contests.

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Alex Noren ($7,900) – Quality form + a reasonable price tag of $7,900 makes Alex Noren an option in all game types. I selected him during the PGA Draftcast tonight, and I believe he has a top-25 finish well within his most likely range of outcomes.

Seamus Power ($7,900) – A ninth-place finish at TPC Craig Ranch in 2021, Seamus Power enters the week under the radar thanks to his up-and-down form in 2022. I am willing to bet on the upside.

Si Woo Kim ($7,800) – Fourteen straight made cuts during events Si Woo Kim hasn’t withdrawn. That built-in safety is hard to ignore at five percent and $7,800.

Bubba Watson ($7,500) – Maybe this is getting too aggressive, but I will take my swings on Bubba Watson, who looks like a two-percent golfer on this slate. The birdie-making prowess is questionable, but the TPC layout does amplify his chances of finding success.

Matthew Wolff ($7,200), Patrick Rodgers ($7,000) – Neither will be for the faint of heart because of their combustibility, but sub-five percent marks and positive trajectory in upside should be exactly what we are looking for when targeting these lower-priced options with some semblance of win equity to their games.

Additional Thoughts: Maverick McNealy ($7,800) – Ownership is the only drawback. Ryan Palmer ($7,400) – Texas narrative and great wind player. Luke List ($7,300) – Volatile option that has top-10 upside at the price tag. Charles Howell III ($7,200) – CH3 is the largest climber in my model when comparing his Bentgrass putting versus all surfaces.

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: The section doesn’t have a ton. Danny Willet ($6,900) and Pat Perez ($6,700) would be my two preferred targets.

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

Here are the links to this week’s PGA Draftcast and Bettor Golf Podcast.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Abraham Ancer ($10,400) – It is a good collection of golfers at the top, but the contrarian pivot belongs to Abraham Ancer, who grades second in my model when looking for nothing but upside. Ancer appeared like he was shaking off the cobwebs during the Mexico Open after a small health-recovery break, and I think he will better have his footing under him at a venue that suits his game from a stylistic sense.

Corey Conners ($10,100) – Not all chalk is bad, and we see that here with Corey Conners approaching 20%+ as of Tuesday night. The Canadian grades first in all iterations of my model, and it is hard to ignore the +115 price tag you can find on him in a head-to-head matchup against Rory McIlroy. I am not necessarily advocating for that to be a wager, but it highlights that the $1,400 reduction in salary is getting you a pretty matching option for the week.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($10,000) – It feels like a good bounceback spot for Matthew Fitzpatrick, who torched the industry at the RBC Heritage. The ball-striking was on-point during that start, which makes it surprising that his typical trusty flat-stick let him down, but don’t be afraid to go back to the Englishman if you are looking for an option in the $10,000 range.

Other Consideration – Rory McIlroy’s price tag is so much higher than everyone else’s that it is causing everything to be pushed in a few certain areas of the board.

$9,000 Range

Russell Henley ($9,300) – If you were to ask me who my favorite play on the board was from a roster construction standpoint, it would likely be Russell Henley. The American fits GPP builds nicely, despite his 17% mark, and he also has playability in cash thanks to his pristine ball-striking numbers.

Other Targets: I’ll find myself underweight to most of the range.

$8,000 Range

Sergio Garcia ($8,700) – When we think of players that provide their best golf at ball-striking venues that negate putting, insert a picture of Sergio Garcia. The Spaniard has some red flags looming because of his hit-and-miss irons over the past few months, but six percent is way too shallow for a golfer who possesses tangible win equity.

Si Woo Kim ($8,400) – The offshore markets love Si Woo Kim. My model rates him relatively highly. I am not sure how much exposure I will have to the South Korean at the end of the day, but he will be one of the few choices in my player pool inside the $8,000 range.

Webb Simpson ($8,100) – I sound like a broken record, but Webb Simpson continues to be too cheap and under-owned for his talent. The second we see any form of life from the 36-year-old, he will jump back into the $9,000 discussion, so I will keep taking my rebated price tag and waiting for him to put the pieces together.

Other Thoughts: Can We trust Paul Casey ($8,800)? My gut-instinct says yes, but please be aware of the risk you are taking on because of his health.

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Keith Mitchell ($7,800) – I am out if the ownership creeps over 15 percent, but Keith Mitchell presents win equity at his $7,800 price tag. There appears to be a reason why Mitchell is in head-to-head matchups against many of the $9,000 golfers versus his closest counterparts.

Doug Ghim ($7,800) – It is never an easy ride when you roster Doug Ghim, but there aren’t many golfers in this field that possess better ball-striking and mid-iron proximity. Don’t be shocked if Ghim flirts with the first page of the leaderboard, although the missed cut potential is always looming around the corner. They don’t call him the ‘Ghim-Reaper’ for the hell of it.

Brian Harman ($7,700) – Brian Harman ranks seventh in this field for overall bogey avoidance and is also inside the top-20 for strokes gained off the tee over his past 24 rounds.

Kevin Streelman ($7,700) – Kevin Streelman might get overlooked because of the popularity around him, but his two top-32s at this course in 2017 and 2018 highlights a golfer that should feel right at home.

Joel Dahmen ($7,600) – The upside is a question for another day, but Joel Dahmen’s safety is worth the squeeze as the 28th-priced golfer on the board.

Adam Long ($7,400) – Sometimes you have to trust the recent form when it aligns with the numbers, and Adam Long’s back-to-back top-15 finishes fit nicely for a golfer that ranked just outside my top-30.

Lucas Glover ($7,200), Martin Laird ($7,100) – You can tune into the Bettor Golf Podcast to hear me compare Glover and Laird countless times, but both golfers could fit nicely together into a build since they provide the same style to a T.

Additional Thoughts: Brendan Steele ($7,300), Russell Knox ($7,300), Alex Smalley ($7,300), Cameron Davis ($7,200), Kurt Kitayama ($7,200)

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: I am mostly looking to fade this section. You can use my model to find some value, but it gets grim quickly.

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

If you haven’t done so already, please be sure to watch both the PGA Draftcast and Bettor Golf Podcast.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Jon Rahm ($11,300) – Joel said it best on the PGA Draftcast tonight when he alluded to Jon Rahm being too cheap. We have seen him in the $12,000 range in stronger fields than this, and I think there is some potential to stack the top of the board with two $10,000+ options if you are worried about the ownership around the Spaniard.

Tony Finau ($10,400) – I haven’t been shy about calling Tony Finau my favorite play on the board, and he is the only golfer in this field that ranks inside the top-16 in all categories that I weighed.

Abraham Ancer ($10,300) – There is risk around Abraham Ancer because of his potential for withdrawal, but I will take some shots in mass-field contests because of his reduction in popularity. I assume Ancer would have been between 15-20% if we were guaranteed a clean bill of health, and I will take a shot on him at between four to eight percent.

Other Consideration – Patrick Reed ($10,000) is worth a look. I prefer him over Kevin Na ($10,100).

$9,000 Range

Cameron Tringale ($9,700) – Tringale lacks some appeal in the space because of his lack of win equity, but there is a reason he ranks third in my two-year model when it comes to strokes gained total. Tringale is a pivot to consider in this section if you want to clear up ownership, and he ranks ninth overall in my model.

Chris Kirk ($9,600) – I don’t see much difference between Tringale and Chris Kirk, as each golfer looks like top-10 values for the Mexico Open.

Matt Jones ($9,000) – Let’s see where the ownership goes before locking in Matt Jones, but his par-five birdie or better and scoring on long, straightforward courses place him inside the top-10 of the event.

Other Targets: Gary Woodland ($9,900) and Aaron Wise ($9,500) are only worrisome because of their ownership. I do tend to like how both set up stylistically for the course.

$8,000 Range

Charles Howell III ($8,400) – Charles Howell III graded inside the top-14 in all five strokes gained metrics that I looked at to try and mimic Vidanta. That is all I need to see to know he should fit the venue, and it doesn’t hurt matters that he also places inside the top-20 in par-five birdie or better.

Other Thoughts: I am going to be underweight in this range. I will play some Talor Moore ($8,200), but it is mostly a pass outside of Moore and Howell.

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Patrick Rodgers ($7,600) – Picking Patrick Rodgers has to work eventually… He is volatile, but he also grades inside the top-25 golfers in this field for upside, which seems enticing at six percent.

Wyndham Clark ($7,600) – My model doesn’t love the play, but Wyndham Clark is the number one mover at offshore books, coming in as low as 40/1 at some shops.

J.T. Poston ($7,500) – J.T. Poston has shown some life recently with back-to-back top-41 performances, and we have seen a massive improvement with his results anytime he gets a venue that has easy-to-hit fairways with no rough. 

Alex Smalley ($7,400) – Alex Smalley is one of the better upside climbers I have in my model. There is a ton of missed cut potential when we look at just his recent form, but the statistical makeup for Vidanta is incredible.

Michael Thompson ($7,200) – Michael Thompson looks to be the best sub-one percent option on DraftKings because he does have top-20 potential. The fact that he ranks fifth when I recalculated my tee to green stats compared to his 71st-place grade only adds to that appeal.

Danny Lee($7,100) – Danny Lee has struggled some on longer courses, but the rest of the data looks good. Lee is 49 spots better in my reweighted tee to green stat versus a random course, and he is also inside the top-20 in birdie or better and long iron + distance, which might be able to mitigate some of the issues he has had at extended venues since the rough is not as penal here. 

Additional Thoughts: You can check out my model to find additional plays I like in this range!

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Adam Schenk ($6,900), Trey Mullinax ($6,800), Vincent Whaley ($6,800)

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.